- Direct Adaptive Control of Grid-Connected Power Converters via Output-Feedback Data-Enabled Policy Optimization Power electronic converters are becoming the main components of modern power systems due to the increasing integration of renewable energy sources. However, power converters may become unstable when interacting with the complex and time-varying power grid. In this paper, we propose an adaptive data-driven control method to stabilize power converters by using only online input-output data. Our contributions are threefold. First, we reformulate the output-feedback control problem as a state-feedback linear quadratic regulator (LQR) problem with a controllable non-minimal state, which can be constructed from past input-output signals. Second, we propose a data-enabled policy optimization (DeePO) method for this non-minimal realization to achieve efficient output-feedback adaptive control. Third, we use high-fidelity simulations to verify that the output-feedback DeePO can effectively stabilize grid-connected power converters and quickly adapt to the changes in the power grid. 6 authors · Nov 6, 2024
- Physics-informed Graphical Neural Network for Power System State Estimation State estimation is highly critical for accurately observing the dynamic behavior of the power grids and minimizing risks from cyber threats. However, existing state estimation methods encounter challenges in accurately capturing power system dynamics, primarily because of limitations in encoding the grid topology and sparse measurements. This paper proposes a physics-informed graphical learning state estimation method to address these limitations by leveraging both domain physical knowledge and a graph neural network (GNN). We employ a GNN architecture that can handle the graph-structured data of power systems more effectively than traditional data-driven methods. The physics-based knowledge is constructed from the branch current formulation, making the approach adaptable to both transmission and distribution systems. The validation results of three IEEE test systems show that the proposed method can achieve lower mean square error more than 20% than the conventional methods. 5 authors · Dec 29, 2023
- Solar Irradiation Forecasting using Genetic Algorithms Renewable energy forecasting is attaining greater importance due to its constant increase in contribution to the electrical power grids. Solar energy is one of the most significant contributors to renewable energy and is dependent on solar irradiation. For the effective management of electrical power grids, forecasting models that predict solar irradiation, with high accuracy, are needed. In the current study, Machine Learning techniques such as Linear Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting and Genetic Algorithm Optimization are used to forecast solar irradiation. The data used for training and validation is recorded from across three different geographical stations in the United States that are part of the SURFRAD network. A Global Horizontal Index (GHI) is predicted for the models built and compared. Genetic Algorithm Optimization is applied to XGB to further improve the accuracy of solar irradiation prediction. 4 authors · Jun 26, 2021
1 Graph Neural Networks for Learning Real-Time Prices in Electricity Market Solving the optimal power flow (OPF) problem in real-time electricity market improves the efficiency and reliability in the integration of low-carbon energy resources into the power grids. To address the scalability and adaptivity issues of existing end-to-end OPF learning solutions, we propose a new graph neural network (GNN) framework for predicting the electricity market prices from solving OPFs. The proposed GNN-for-OPF framework innovatively exploits the locality property of prices and introduces physics-aware regularization, while attaining reduced model complexity and fast adaptivity to varying grid topology. Numerical tests have validated the learning efficiency and adaptivity improvements of our proposed method over existing approaches. 3 authors · Jun 19, 2021
1 LFGCN: Levitating over Graphs with Levy Flights Due to high utility in many applications, from social networks to blockchain to power grids, deep learning on non-Euclidean objects such as graphs and manifolds, coined Geometric Deep Learning (GDL), continues to gain an ever increasing interest. We propose a new L\'evy Flights Graph Convolutional Networks (LFGCN) method for semi-supervised learning, which casts the L\'evy Flights into random walks on graphs and, as a result, allows both to accurately account for the intrinsic graph topology and to substantially improve classification performance, especially for heterogeneous graphs. Furthermore, we propose a new preferential P-DropEdge method based on the Girvan-Newman argument. That is, in contrast to uniform removing of edges as in DropEdge, following the Girvan-Newman algorithm, we detect network periphery structures using information on edge betweenness and then remove edges according to their betweenness centrality. Our experimental results on semi-supervised node classification tasks demonstrate that the LFGCN coupled with P-DropEdge accelerates the training task, increases stability and further improves predictive accuracy of learned graph topology structure. Finally, in our case studies we bring the machinery of LFGCN and other deep networks tools to analysis of power grid networks - the area where the utility of GDL remains untapped. 3 authors · Sep 4, 2020
3 Neuralangelo: High-Fidelity Neural Surface Reconstruction Neural surface reconstruction has been shown to be powerful for recovering dense 3D surfaces via image-based neural rendering. However, current methods struggle to recover detailed structures of real-world scenes. To address the issue, we present Neuralangelo, which combines the representation power of multi-resolution 3D hash grids with neural surface rendering. Two key ingredients enable our approach: (1) numerical gradients for computing higher-order derivatives as a smoothing operation and (2) coarse-to-fine optimization on the hash grids controlling different levels of details. Even without auxiliary inputs such as depth, Neuralangelo can effectively recover dense 3D surface structures from multi-view images with fidelity significantly surpassing previous methods, enabling detailed large-scale scene reconstruction from RGB video captures. 7 authors · Jun 5, 2023 1
- Data-Driven Time Series Reconstruction for Modern Power Systems Research A critical aspect of power systems research is the availability of suitable data, access to which is limited by privacy concerns and the sensitive nature of energy infrastructure. This lack of data, in turn, hinders the development of modern research avenues such as machine learning approaches or stochastic formulations. To overcome this challenge, this paper proposes a systematic, data-driven framework for reconstructing high-fidelity time series, using publicly-available grid snapshots and historical data published by transmission system operators. The proposed approach, from geo-spatial data and generation capacity reconstruction, to time series disaggregation, is applied to the French transmission grid. Thereby, synthetic but highly realistic time series data, spanning multiple years with a 5-minute granularity, is generated at the individual component level. 3 authors · Oct 26, 2021
- Physics-Informed Deep Neural Network Method for Limited Observability State Estimation The precise knowledge regarding the state of the power grid is important in order to ensure optimal and reliable grid operation. Specifically, knowing the state of the distribution grid becomes increasingly important as more renewable energy sources are connected directly into the distribution network, increasing the fluctuations of the injected power. In this paper, we consider the case when the distribution grid becomes partially observable, and the state estimation problem is under-determined. We present a new methodology that leverages a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate the grid state. The standard DNN training method is modified to explicitly incorporate the physical information of the grid topology and line/shunt admittance. We show that our method leads to a superior accuracy of the estimation when compared to the case when no physical information is provided. Finally, we compare the performance of our method to the standard state estimation approach, which is based on the weighted least squares with pseudo-measurements, and show that our method performs significantly better with respect to the estimation accuracy. Tel Aviv University · Oct 14, 2019
- Development of Bayesian Component Failure Models in E1 HEMP Grid Analysis Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs). 3 authors · Jun 3, 2024
1 The Role of Deep Learning in Advancing Proactive Cybersecurity Measures for Smart Grid Networks: A Survey As smart grids (SG) increasingly rely on advanced technologies like sensors and communication systems for efficient energy generation, distribution, and consumption, they become enticing targets for sophisticated cyberattacks. These evolving threats demand robust security measures to maintain the stability and resilience of modern energy systems. While extensive research has been conducted, a comprehensive exploration of proactive cyber defense strategies utilizing Deep Learning (DL) in {SG} remains scarce in the literature. This survey bridges this gap, studying the latest DL techniques for proactive cyber defense. The survey begins with an overview of related works and our distinct contributions, followed by an examination of SG infrastructure. Next, we classify various cyber defense techniques into reactive and proactive categories. A significant focus is placed on DL-enabled proactive defenses, where we provide a comprehensive taxonomy of DL approaches, highlighting their roles and relevance in the proactive security of SG. Subsequently, we analyze the most significant DL-based methods currently in use. Further, we explore Moving Target Defense, a proactive defense strategy, and its interactions with DL methodologies. We then provide an overview of benchmark datasets used in this domain to substantiate the discourse.{ This is followed by a critical discussion on their practical implications and broader impact on cybersecurity in Smart Grids.} The survey finally lists the challenges associated with deploying DL-based security systems within SG, followed by an outlook on future developments in this key field. 3 authors · Jan 11, 2024
- LLM4DistReconfig: A Fine-tuned Large Language Model for Power Distribution Network Reconfiguration Power distribution networks are evolving due to the integration of DERs and increased customer participation. To maintain optimal operation, minimize losses, and meet varying load demands, frequent network reconfiguration is necessary. Traditionally, the reconfiguration task relies on optimization software and expert operators, but as systems grow more complex, faster and more adaptive solutions are required without expert intervention. Data-driven reconfiguration is gaining traction for its accuracy, speed, and robustness against incomplete network data. LLMs, with their ability to capture complex patterns, offer a promising approach for efficient and responsive network reconfiguration in evolving complex power networks. In this work, we introduce LLM4DistReconfig, a deep learning-based approach utilizing a fine-tuned LLM to solve the distribution network reconfiguration problem. By carefully crafting prompts and designing a custom loss function, we train the LLM with inputs representing network parameters such as buses, available lines, open lines, node voltages, and system loss. The model then predicts optimal reconfigurations by outputting updated network configurations that minimize system loss while meeting operational constraints. Our approach significantly reduces inference time compared to classical algorithms, allowing for near real-time optimal reconfiguration after training. Experimental results show that our method generates optimal configurations minimizing system loss for five individual and a combined test dataset. It also produces minimal invalid edges, no cycles, or subgraphs across all datasets, fulfilling domain-specific needs. Additionally, the generated responses contain less than 5% improper outputs on seen networks and satisfactory results on unseen networks, demonstrating its effectiveness and reliability for the reconfiguration task. 4 authors · Jan 24
- Tree-based Forecasting of Day-ahead Solar Power Generation from Granular Meteorological Features Accurate forecasts for day-ahead photovoltaic (PV) power generation are crucial to support a high PV penetration rate in the local electricity grid and to assure stability in the grid. We use state-of-the-art tree-based machine learning methods to produce such forecasts and, unlike previous studies, we hereby account for (i) the effects various meteorological as well as astronomical features have on PV power production, and this (ii) at coarse as well as granular spatial locations. To this end, we use data from Belgium and forecast day-ahead PV power production at an hourly resolution. The insights from our study can assist utilities, decision-makers, and other stakeholders in optimizing grid operations, economic dispatch, and in facilitating the integration of distributed PV power into the electricity grid. 4 authors · Nov 30, 2023
1 SDWPF: A Dataset for Spatial Dynamic Wind Power Forecasting Challenge at KDD Cup 2022 The variability of wind power supply can present substantial challenges to incorporating wind power into a grid system. Thus, Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) has been widely recognized as one of the most critical issues in wind power integration and operation. There has been an explosion of studies on wind power forecasting problems in the past decades. Nevertheless, how to well handle the WPF problem is still challenging, since high prediction accuracy is always demanded to ensure grid stability and security of supply. We present a unique Spatial Dynamic Wind Power Forecasting dataset: SDWPF, which includes the spatial distribution of wind turbines, as well as the dynamic context factors. Whereas, most of the existing datasets have only a small number of wind turbines without knowing the locations and context information of wind turbines at a fine-grained time scale. By contrast, SDWPF provides the wind power data of 134 wind turbines from a wind farm over half a year with their relative positions and internal statuses. We use this dataset to launch the Baidu KDD Cup 2022 to examine the limit of current WPF solutions. The dataset is released at https://aistudio.baidu.com/aistudio/competition/detail/152/0/datasets. 7 authors · Aug 8, 2022
- Electric Vehicle Routing Problem for Emergency Power Supply: Towards Telecom Base Station Relief As a telecom provider, our company has a critical mission to maintain telecom services even during power outages. To accomplish the mission, it is essential to maintain the power of the telecom base stations. Here we consider a solution where electric vehicles (EVs) directly supply power to base stations by traveling to their locations. The goal is to find EV routes that minimize both the total travel distance of all EVs and the number of downed base stations. In this paper, we formulate this routing problem as a new variant of the Electric Vehicle Routing Problem (EVRP) and propose a solver that combines a rule-based vehicle selector and a reinforcement learning (RL)-based node selector. The rule of the vehicle selector ensures the exact environmental states when the selected EV starts to move. In addition, the node selection by the RL model enables fast route generation, which is critical in emergencies. We evaluate our solver on both synthetic datasets and real datasets. The results show that our solver outperforms baselines in terms of the objective value and computation time. Moreover, we analyze the generalization and scalability of our solver, demonstrating the capability toward unseen settings and large-scale problems. Check also our project page: https://ntt-dkiku.github.io/rl-evrpeps. 6 authors · Apr 3, 2024
1 Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. However, most infrastructure planning is based on a single weather year, resulting in a lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize energy infrastructure for a European energy system designed for net-zero CO_2 emissions in 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the capacity layouts and simulate their operation in every weather year, to evaluate resource adequacy and CO_2 emissions abatement. We show that interannual weather variability causes variation of pm10\% in total system cost. The most expensive capacity layout obtains the lowest net CO_2 emissions but not the highest resource adequacy. Instead, capacity layouts designed with years including compound weather events result in a more robust and cost-effective design. Deploying CO_2-emitting backup generation is a cost-effective robustness measure, which only increase CO_2 emissions marginally as the average CO_2 emissions remain less than 1\% of 1990 levels. Our findings highlight how extreme weather years drive investments in robustness measures, making them compatible with all weather conditions within six decades of historical weather data. 4 authors · Apr 18, 2024
- Efficient MPC-Based Energy Management System for Secure and Cost-Effective Microgrid Operations Model predictive control (MPC)-based energy management systems (EMS) are essential for ensuring optimal, secure, and stable operation in microgrids with high penetrations of distributed energy resources. However, due to the high computational cost for the decision-making, the conventional MPC-based EMS typically adopts a simplified integrated-bus power balance model. While this simplification is effective for small networks, large-scale systems require a more detailed branch flow model to account for the increased impact of grid power losses and security constraints. This work proposes an efficient and reliable MPC-based EMS that incorporates power-loss effects and grid-security constraints. %, while adaptively shaping the battery power profile in response to online renewable inputs, achieving reduced operational costs. It enhances system reliability, reduces operational costs, and shows strong potential for online implementation due to its reduced computational effort. Specifically, a second-order cone program (SOCP) branch flow relaxation is integrated into the constraint set, yielding a convex formulation that guarantees globally optimal solutions with high computational efficiency. Owing to the radial topology of the microgrid, this relaxation is practically tight, ensuring equivalence to the original problem. Building on this foundation, an online demand response (DR) module is designed to further reduce the operation cost through peak shaving. To the best of our knowledge, no prior MPC-EMS framework has simultaneously modeled losses and security constraints while coordinating flexible loads within a unified architecture. The developed framework enables secure operation with effective peak shaving and reduced total cost. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated on 10-bus, 18-bus, and 33-bus systems. 4 authors · Sep 23
- Operational Wind Speed Forecasts for Chile's Electric Power Sector Using a Hybrid ML Model As Chile's electric power sector advances toward a future powered by renewable energy, accurate forecasting of renewable generation is essential for managing grid operations. The integration of renewable energy sources is particularly challenging due to the operational difficulties of managing their power generation, which is highly variable compared to fossil fuel sources, delaying the availability of clean energy. To mitigate this, we quantify the impact of increasing intermittent generation from wind and solar on thermal power plants in Chile and introduce a hybrid wind speed forecasting methodology which combines two custom ML models for Chile. The first model is based on TiDE, an MLP-based ML model for short-term forecasts, and the second is based on a graph neural network, GraphCast, for medium-term forecasts up to 10 days. Our hybrid approach outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems by 4-21% for short-term forecasts and 5-23% for medium-term forecasts and can directly lower the impact of wind generation on thermal ramping, curtailment, and system-level emissions in Chile. 5 authors · Sep 13, 2024
- A crowdsourced dataset of aerial images with annotated solar photovoltaic arrays and installation metadata Photovoltaic (PV) energy generation plays a crucial role in the energy transition. Small-scale PV installations are deployed at an unprecedented pace, and their integration into the grid can be challenging since public authorities often lack quality data about them. Overhead imagery is increasingly used to improve the knowledge of residential PV installations with machine learning models capable of automatically mapping these installations. However, these models cannot be easily transferred from one region or data source to another due to differences in image acquisition. To address this issue known as domain shift and foster the development of PV array mapping pipelines, we propose a dataset containing aerial images, annotations, and segmentation masks. We provide installation metadata for more than 28,000 installations. We provide ground truth segmentation masks for 13,000 installations, including 7,000 with annotations for two different image providers. Finally, we provide installation metadata that matches the annotation for more than 8,000 installations. Dataset applications include end-to-end PV registry construction, robust PV installations mapping, and analysis of crowdsourced datasets. 7 authors · Sep 8, 2022
- Testing the Efficacy of Hyperparameter Optimization Algorithms in Short-Term Load Forecasting Accurate forecasting of electrical demand is essential for maintaining a stable and reliable power grid, optimizing the allocation of energy resources, and promoting efficient energy consumption practices. This study investigates the effectiveness of five hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms -- Random Search, Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA--ES), Bayesian Optimization, Partial Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Nevergrad Optimizer (NGOpt) across univariate and multivariate Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) tasks. Using the Panama Electricity dataset (n=48,049), we evaluate HPO algorithms' performances on a surrogate forecasting algorithm, XGBoost, in terms of accuracy (i.e., MAPE, R^2) and runtime. Performance plots visualize these metrics across varying sample sizes from 1,000 to 20,000, and Kruskal--Wallis tests assess the statistical significance of the performance differences. Results reveal significant runtime advantages for HPO algorithms over Random Search. In univariate models, Bayesian optimization exhibited the lowest accuracy among the tested methods. This study provides valuable insights for optimizing XGBoost in the STLF context and identifies areas for future research. 2 authors · Oct 19, 2024
1 Refining Graphical Neural Network Predictions Using Flow Matching for Optimal Power Flow with Constraint-Satisfaction Guarantee The DC Optimal Power Flow (DC-OPF) problem is fundamental to power system operations, requiring rapid solutions for real-time grid management. While traditional optimization solvers provide optimal solutions, their computational cost becomes prohibitive for large-scale systems requiring frequent recalculations. Machine learning approaches offer promise for acceleration but often struggle with constraint satisfaction and cost optimality. We present a novel two-stage learning framework that combines physics-informed Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with Continuous Flow Matching (CFM) for solving DC-OPF problems. Our approach embeds fundamental physical principles--including economic dispatch optimality conditions, Kirchhoff's laws, and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) complementarity conditions--directly into the training objectives. The first stage trains a GNN to produce feasible initial solutions by learning from physics-informed losses that encode power system constraints. The second stage employs CFM, a simulation-free continuous normalizing flow technique, to refine these solutions toward optimality through learned vector field regression. Evaluated on the IEEE 30-bus system across five load scenarios ranging from 70\% to 130\% nominal load, our method achieves near-optimal solutions with cost gaps below 0.1\% for nominal loads and below 3\% for extreme conditions, while maintaining 100\% feasibility. Our framework bridges the gap between fast but approximate neural network predictions and optimal but slow numerical solvers, offering a practical solution for modern power systems with high renewable penetration requiring frequent dispatch updates. 1 authors · Dec 11
1 HyperionSolarNet: Solar Panel Detection from Aerial Images With the effects of global climate change impacting the world, collective efforts are needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The energy sector is the single largest contributor to climate change and many efforts are focused on reducing dependence on carbon-emitting power plants and moving to renewable energy sources, such as solar power. A comprehensive database of the location of solar panels is important to assist analysts and policymakers in defining strategies for further expansion of solar energy. In this paper we focus on creating a world map of solar panels. We identify locations and total surface area of solar panels within a given geographic area. We use deep learning methods for automated detection of solar panel locations and their surface area using aerial imagery. The framework, which consists of a two-branch model using an image classifier in tandem with a semantic segmentation model, is trained on our created dataset of satellite images. Our work provides an efficient and scalable method for detecting solar panels, achieving an accuracy of 0.96 for classification and an IoU score of 0.82 for segmentation performance. 7 authors · Jan 6, 2022
- HEAPO -- An Open Dataset for Heat Pump Optimization with Smart Electricity Meter Data and On-Site Inspection Protocols Heat pumps are essential for decarbonizing residential heating but consume substantial electrical energy, impacting operational costs and grid demand. Many systems run inefficiently due to planning flaws, operational faults, or misconfigurations. While optimizing performance requires skilled professionals, labor shortages hinder large-scale interventions. However, digital tools and improved data availability create new service opportunities for energy efficiency, predictive maintenance, and demand-side management. To support research and practical solutions, we present an open-source dataset of electricity consumption from 1,408 households with heat pumps and smart electricity meters in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland, recorded at 15-minute and daily resolutions between 2018-11-03 and 2024-03-21. The dataset includes household metadata, weather data from 8 stations, and ground truth data from 410 field visit protocols collected by energy consultants during system optimizations. Additionally, the dataset includes a Python-based data loader to facilitate seamless data processing and exploration. 4 authors · Mar 21
- Stochastic-Robust Planning of Networked Hydrogen-Electrical Microgrids: A Study on Induced Refueling Demand Hydrogen-electrical microgrids are increasingly assuming an important role on the pathway toward decarbonization of energy and transportation systems. This paper studies networked hydrogen-electrical microgrids planning (NHEMP), considering a critical but often-overlooked issue, i.e., the demand-inducing effect (DIE) associated with infrastructure development decisions. Specifically, higher refueling capacities will attract more refueling demand of hydrogen-powered vehicles (HVs). To capture such interactions between investment decisions and induced refueling demand, we introduce a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) set and build a trilevel stochastic-robust formulation. The upper-level determines optimal investment strategies for hydrogen-electrical microgrids, the lower-level optimizes the risk-aware operation schedules across a series of stochastic scenarios, and, for each scenario, the middle-level identifies the "worst" situation of refueling demand within an individual DDU set to ensure economic feasibility. Then, an adaptive and exact decomposition algorithm, based on Parametric Column-and-Constraint Generation (PC&CG), is customized and developed to address the computational challenge and to quantitatively analyze the impact of DIE. Case studies on an IEEE exemplary system validate the effectiveness of the proposed NHEMP model and the PC&CG algorithm. It is worth highlighting that DIE can make an important contribution to the economic benefits of NHEMP, yet its significance will gradually decrease when the main bottleneck transits to other system restrictions. 6 authors · Mar 31, 2024
- Regional data-driven weather modeling with a global stretched-grid A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events. 14 authors · Sep 4, 2024
- Shielded Controller Units for RL with Operational Constraints Applied to Remote Microgrids Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful framework for optimizing decision-making in complex systems under uncertainty, an essential challenge in real-world settings, particularly in the context of the energy transition. A representative example is remote microgrids that supply power to communities disconnected from the main grid. Enabling the energy transition in such systems requires coordinated control of renewable sources like wind turbines, alongside fuel generators and batteries, to meet demand while minimizing fuel consumption and battery degradation under exogenous and intermittent load and wind conditions. These systems must often conform to extensive regulations and complex operational constraints. To ensure that RL agents respect these constraints, it is crucial to provide interpretable guarantees. In this paper, we introduce Shielded Controller Units (SCUs), a systematic and interpretable approach that leverages prior knowledge of system dynamics to ensure constraint satisfaction. Our shield synthesis methodology, designed for real-world deployment, decomposes the environment into a hierarchical structure where each SCU explicitly manages a subset of constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SCUs on a remote microgrid optimization task with strict operational requirements. The RL agent, equipped with SCUs, achieves a 24% reduction in fuel consumption without increasing battery degradation, outperforming other baselines while satisfying all constraints. We hope SCUs contribute to the safe application of RL to the many decision-making challenges linked to the energy transition. 5 authors · Nov 30
1 IISE PG&E Energy Analytics Challenge 2025: Hourly-Binned Regression Models Beat Transformers in Load Forecasting Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includes two years of historical electricity load data, alongside temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across five sites, with a one-day-ahead forecasting horizon. Since actual test set load values remain undisclosed, leveraging predicted values would accumulate errors, making this a long-term forecasting challenge. We employ (i) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and (ii) frame the task as a regression problem, using temperature and GHI as covariates to predict load for each hour, (iii) ultimately stacking 24 models to generate yearly forecasts. Our results reveal that deep learning models, including TimeGPT, fail to consistently outperform simpler statistical and machine learning approaches due to the limited availability of training data and exogenous variables. In contrast, XGBoost, with minimal feature engineering, delivers the lowest error rates across all test cases while maintaining computational efficiency. This highlights the limitations of deep learning in long-term electricity forecasting and reinforces the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics rather than complexity. Our study provides insights into practical forecasting applications and contributes to the ongoing discussion on the trade-offs between traditional and modern forecasting methods. 3 authors · May 16
- An Introduction to Electrocatalyst Design using Machine Learning for Renewable Energy Storage Scalable and cost-effective solutions to renewable energy storage are essential to addressing the world's rising energy needs while reducing climate change. As we increase our reliance on renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, which produce intermittent power, storage is needed to transfer power from times of peak generation to peak demand. This may require the storage of power for hours, days, or months. One solution that offers the potential of scaling to nation-sized grids is the conversion of renewable energy to other fuels, such as hydrogen or methane. To be widely adopted, this process requires cost-effective solutions to running electrochemical reactions. An open challenge is finding low-cost electrocatalysts to drive these reactions at high rates. Through the use of quantum mechanical simulations (density functional theory), new catalyst structures can be tested and evaluated. Unfortunately, the high computational cost of these simulations limits the number of structures that may be tested. The use of machine learning may provide a method to efficiently approximate these calculations, leading to new approaches in finding effective electrocatalysts. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the challenges in finding suitable electrocatalysts, how machine learning may be applied to the problem, and the use of the Open Catalyst Project OC20 dataset for model training. 17 authors · Oct 14, 2020
6 ALE-Bench: A Benchmark for Long-Horizon Objective-Driven Algorithm Engineering How well do AI systems perform in algorithm engineering for hard optimization problems in domains such as package-delivery routing, crew scheduling, factory production planning, and power-grid balancing? We introduce ALE-Bench, a new benchmark for evaluating AI systems on score-based algorithmic programming contests. Drawing on real tasks from the AtCoder Heuristic Contests, ALE-Bench presents optimization problems that are computationally hard and admit no known exact solution. Unlike short-duration, pass/fail coding benchmarks, ALE-Bench encourages iterative solution refinement over long time horizons. Our software framework supports interactive agent architectures that leverage test-run feedback and visualizations. Our evaluation of frontier LLMs revealed that while they demonstrate high performance on specific problems, a notable gap remains compared to humans in terms of consistency across problems and long-horizon problem-solving capabilities. This highlights the need for this benchmark to foster future AI advancements. 6 authors · Jun 10 2
1 Continuous Convolutional Neural Networks for Disruption Prediction in Nuclear Fusion Plasmas Grid decarbonization for climate change requires dispatchable carbon-free energy like nuclear fusion. The tokamak concept offers a promising path for fusion, but one of the foremost challenges in implementation is the occurrence of energetic plasma disruptions. In this study, we delve into Machine Learning approaches to predict plasma state outcomes. Our contributions are twofold: (1) We present a novel application of Continuous Convolutional Neural Networks for disruption prediction and (2) We examine the advantages and disadvantages of continuous models over discrete models for disruption prediction by comparing our model with the previous, discrete state of the art, and show that continuous models offer significantly better performance (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve = 0.974 v.s. 0.799) with fewer parameters 3 authors · Dec 3, 2023
1 SolarDK: A high-resolution urban solar panel image classification and localization dataset The body of research on classification of solar panel arrays from aerial imagery is increasing, yet there are still not many public benchmark datasets. This paper introduces two novel benchmark datasets for classifying and localizing solar panel arrays in Denmark: A human annotated dataset for classification and segmentation, as well as a classification dataset acquired using self-reported data from the Danish national building registry. We explore the performance of prior works on the new benchmark dataset, and present results after fine-tuning models using a similar approach as recent works. Furthermore, we train models of newer architectures and provide benchmark baselines to our datasets in several scenarios. We believe the release of these datasets may improve future research in both local and global geospatial domains for identifying and mapping of solar panel arrays from aerial imagery. The data is accessible at https://osf.io/aj539/. 7 authors · Dec 2, 2022