Daily Papers

LLM routing has become a popular approach to improve the cost-quality trade-off of LLM services by dynamically selecting a model for each query. Recent work has explored a broad range of routing methods, including clustering-based routers, learned classifiers, pairwise ranking, and confidence-based approaches. Our extensive study of 21 routing methods across five benchmarks reveals a consistent phenomenon that we call the routing plateau: many methods, including kNN, achieve very similar accuracy and converge to a narrow performance range that remains far below the oracle router. Our investigation shows that the plateau is largely caused by a predictability bottleneck: current routers mainly learn global averaged model-performance trends rather than fine-grained query-specific routing signals. As a result, they solve overlapping easy queries but collectively fail on hard queries that require instance-specific routing decisions. We further study how to move beyond the plateau and find that larger training datasets, stronger encoders, and end-to-end fine-tuning can further improve routing accuracy. These findings characterize the common limits of current routing methods and provide insights and actionable directions for the community to build more effective routing systems.

Large language models (LLMs) have become a standard for multilingual evaluation, yet they exhibit a severe systematic translationese bias. In this paper, translationese bias is characterized as LLMs systematically favoring machine-translated text over human-authored references, particularly in low-resource languages. We attribute this bias to spurious correlations with (i) latent manifold alignment with English and (ii) cross-lingual predictability. To mitigate this bias, we propose DIBJudge, a robust fine-tuning framework that learns a minimally sufficient, judgment-critical representation via variational information compression, while explicitly isolating spurious factors into the dedicated bias branch. Furthermore, we incorporate a cross-covariance penalty that explicitly suppresses statistical dependence between robust and bias representations, thereby encouraging effective disentanglement. Extensive evaluations on multilingual reward modeling benchmarks and a dedicated translationese bias evaluation suite demonstrate that the proposed DIBJudge consistently outperforms strong baselines and substantially mitigates translationese bias.

In discriminative settings such as regression and classification there are two random variables at play, the inputs X and the targets Y. Here, we demonstrate that the Variational Information Bottleneck can be viewed as a compromise between fully empirical and fully Bayesian objectives, attempting to minimize the risks due to finite sampling of Y only. We argue that this approach provides some of the benefits of Bayes while requiring only some of the work.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Pretrained transformers achieve the state of the art across tasks in natural language processing, motivating researchers to investigate their inner mechanisms. One common direction is to understand what features are important for prediction. In this paper, we apply information bottlenecks to analyze the attribution of each feature for prediction on a black-box model. We use BERT as the example and evaluate our approach both quantitatively and qualitatively. We show the effectiveness of our method in terms of attribution and the ability to provide insight into how information flows through layers. We demonstrate that our technique outperforms two competitive methods in degradation tests on four datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/bazingagin/IBA.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) promote interpretability by grounding predictions in human-understandable concepts. However, existing CBMs typically fix their task predictor to a single linear or Boolean expression, limiting both predictive accuracy and adaptability to diverse user needs. We propose Mixture of Concept Bottleneck Experts (M-CBEs), a framework that generalizes existing CBMs along two dimensions: the number of experts and the functional form of each expert, exposing an underexplored region of the design space. We investigate this region by instantiating two novel models: Linear M-CBE, which learns a finite set of linear expressions, and Symbolic M-CBE, which leverages symbolic regression to discover expert functions from data under user-specified operator vocabularies. Empirical evaluation demonstrates that varying the mixture size and functional form provides a robust framework for navigating the accuracy-interpretability trade-off, adapting to different user and task needs.

In supervised learning, understanding an input's proximity to the training data can help a model decide whether it has sufficient evidence for reaching a reliable prediction. While powerful probabilistic models such as Gaussian Processes naturally have this property, deep neural networks often lack it. In this paper, we introduce Distance Aware Bottleneck (DAB), i.e., a new method for enriching deep neural networks with this property. Building on prior information bottleneck approaches, our method learns a codebook that stores a compressed representation of all inputs seen during training. The distance of a new example from this codebook can serve as an uncertainty estimate for the example. The resulting model is simple to train and provides deterministic uncertainty estimates by a single forward pass. Finally, our method achieves better out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and misclassification prediction than prior methods, including expensive ensemble methods, deep kernel Gaussian Processes, and approaches based on the standard information bottleneck.

Interpreting the internal activations of neural networks can produce more faithful explanations of their behavior, but is difficult due to the complex structure of activation space. Existing approaches to scalable interpretability use hand-designed agents that make and test hypotheses about how internal activations relate to external behavior. We propose to instead turn this task into an end-to-end training objective, by training interpretability assistants to accurately predict model behavior from activations through a communication bottleneck. Specifically, an encoder compresses activations to a sparse list of concepts, and a decoder reads this list and answers a natural language question about the model. We show how to pretrain this assistant on large unstructured data, then finetune it to answer questions. The resulting architecture, which we call a Predictive Concept Decoder, enjoys favorable scaling properties: the auto-interp score of the bottleneck concepts improves with data, as does the performance on downstream applications. Specifically, PCDs can detect jailbreaks, secret hints, and implanted latent concepts, and are able to accurately surface latent user attributes.

Automated ICD-10 coding from clinical discharge summaries requires models that are both accurate on long-tailed multi-label classification tasks and interpretable to clinicians. Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) offer a principled framework for interpretability by routing predictions through human-interpretable concepts, but this transparency often comes at a cost: compressing rich clinical text representations into a narrow concept layer can restrict gradient flow and limit predictive capacity. We present ShifaMind, a concept-grounded architecture built around a Multiplicative Concept Bottleneck (MCB), which changes the form, rather than the width, of the bottleneck. Instead of projecting through a narrow concept layer, ShifaMind uses a learned multiplicative gate over a concept-grounded representation while retaining a scalar concept interface for inspection. On MIMIC-IV top-50 ICD-10 coding, ShifaMind achieves performance competitive with LAAT, the strongest baseline, across F1, AUC, and ranking metrics, while outperforming five additional ICD-coding baselines and providing concept-mediated explanations. Its substantial gains over a capacity-matched Vanilla CBM in both predictive performance and interpretability-oriented metrics highlight the importance of the bottleneck design.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) map the inputs onto a set of interpretable concepts (``the bottleneck'') and use the concepts to make predictions. A concept bottleneck enhances interpretability since it can be investigated to understand what concepts the model "sees" in an input and which of these concepts are deemed important. However, CBMs are restrictive in practice as they require dense concept annotations in the training data to learn the bottleneck. Moreover, CBMs often do not match the accuracy of an unrestricted neural network, reducing the incentive to deploy them in practice. In this work, we address these limitations of CBMs by introducing Post-hoc Concept Bottleneck models (PCBMs). We show that we can turn any neural network into a PCBM without sacrificing model performance while still retaining the interpretability benefits. When concept annotations are not available on the training data, we show that PCBM can transfer concepts from other datasets or from natural language descriptions of concepts via multimodal models. A key benefit of PCBM is that it enables users to quickly debug and update the model to reduce spurious correlations and improve generalization to new distributions. PCBM allows for global model edits, which can be more efficient than previous works on local interventions that fix a specific prediction. Through a model-editing user study, we show that editing PCBMs via concept-level feedback can provide significant performance gains without using data from the target domain or model retraining.

The Information Bottleneck (IB) principle has emerged as a promising approach for enhancing the generalization, robustness, and interpretability of deep neural networks, demonstrating efficacy across image segmentation, document clustering, and semantic communication. Among IB implementations, the IB Lagrangian method, employing Lagrangian multipliers, is widely adopted. While numerous methods for the optimizations of IB Lagrangian based on variational bounds and neural estimators are feasible, their performance is highly dependent on the quality of their design, which is inherently prone to errors. To address this limitation, we introduce Structured IB, a framework for investigating potential structured features. By incorporating auxiliary encoders to extract missing informative features, we generate more informative representations. Our experiments demonstrate superior prediction accuracy and task-relevant information preservation compared to the original IB Lagrangian method, even with reduced network size.

Resource constraints increasingly determine what can be trained, fine-tuned, and deployed in large language models (LLMs), yet efficiency is often studied through isolated techniques rather than as an interacting system of limits. This survey adopts a constraint-centric perspective and organizes recent progress around three coupled bottlenecks: data efficiency (what to train on), memory efficiency (how to fit training), and compute budget awareness (when and where to spend FLOPs). On the data axis, we review selection and pruning methods that maximize learning per token, ranging from scalable proxy signals based on learning dynamics to gradient- and influence-based scoring, as well as difficulty-aware and curriculum-style strategies. We highlight emerging evidence that different notions of good data dominate in different regimes, implying that optimal subsets depend on the task objective and resource budget rather than being universal. On the systems side, we show that GPU memory, not raw compute, is often the dominant bottleneck in fine-tuning, and that effective scaling requires jointly reducing weight storage, optimizer states, and activation memory rather than optimizing any single component in isolation. Beyond memory, we frame training and inference as compute-governed processes in which optimization, data selection, and decoding must explicitly account for finite FLOP budgets. We review evidence for compute-optimal allocation and stopping rules, where computation should be halted or reallocated once marginal performance gains fall below a budget-dependent threshold. Together, these results unify compute-aware data selection, scaling laws, and adaptive inference under a common principle of resource-conditioned decision-making.

Concept bottleneck models (CBMs) are a class of interpretable neural network models that predict the target response of a given input based on its high-level concepts. Unlike the standard end-to-end models, CBMs enable domain experts to intervene on the predicted concepts and rectify any mistakes at test time, so that more accurate task predictions can be made at the end. While such intervenability provides a powerful avenue of control, many aspects of the intervention procedure remain rather unexplored. In this work, we develop various ways of selecting intervening concepts to improve the intervention effectiveness and conduct an array of in-depth analyses as to how they evolve under different circumstances. Specifically, we find that an informed intervention strategy can reduce the task error more than ten times compared to the current baseline under the same amount of intervention counts in realistic settings, and yet, this can vary quite significantly when taking into account different intervention granularity. We verify our findings through comprehensive evaluations, not only on the standard real datasets, but also on synthetic datasets that we generate based on a set of different causal graphs. We further discover some major pitfalls of the current practices which, without a proper addressing, raise concerns on reliability and fairness of the intervention procedure.

The information bottleneck (IB) approach is popular to improve the generalization, robustness and explainability of deep neural networks. Essentially, it aims to find a minimum sufficient representation t by striking a trade-off between a compression term I(x;t) and a prediction term I(y;t), where I(cdot;cdot) refers to the mutual information (MI). MI is for the IB for the most part expressed in terms of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, which in the regression case corresponds to prediction based on mean squared error (MSE) loss with Gaussian assumption and compression approximated by variational inference. In this paper, we study the IB principle for the regression problem and develop a new way to parameterize the IB with deep neural networks by exploiting favorable properties of the Cauchy-Schwarz (CS) divergence. By doing so, we move away from MSE-based regression and ease estimation by avoiding variational approximations or distributional assumptions. We investigate the improved generalization ability of our proposed CS-IB and demonstrate strong adversarial robustness guarantees. We demonstrate its superior performance on six real-world regression tasks over other popular deep IB approaches. We additionally observe that the solutions discovered by CS-IB always achieve the best trade-off between prediction accuracy and compression ratio in the information plane. The code is available at https://github.com/SJYuCNEL/Cauchy-Schwarz-Information-Bottleneck.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

The Information Bottleneck (IB) method frequently suffers from unstable optimization, characterized by abrupt representation shifts near critical points of the IB trade-off parameter, beta. In this paper, I introduce a novel approach to achieve stable and convex IB optimization through symbolic continuation and entropy-regularized trajectories. I analytically prove convexity and uniqueness of the IB solution path when an entropy regularization term is included, and demonstrate how this stabilizes representation learning across a wide range of eta values. Additionally, I provide extensive sensitivity analyses around critical points (beta) with statistically robust uncertainty quantification (95% confidence intervals). The open-source implementation, experimental results, and reproducibility framework included in this work offer a clear path for practical deployment and future extension of my proposed method.

Missing values are common in real-world time series, and multivariate time series forecasting with missing values (MTSF-M) has become a crucial area of research for ensuring reliable predictions. To address the challenge of missing data, current approaches have developed an imputation-then-prediction framework that uses imputation modules to fill in missing values, followed by forecasting on the imputed data. However, this framework overlooks a critical issue: there is no ground truth for the missing values, making the imputation process susceptible to errors that can degrade prediction accuracy. In this paper, we conduct a systematic empirical study and reveal that imputation without direct supervision can corrupt the underlying data distribution and actively degrade prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose a paradigm shift that moves away from imputation and directly predicts from the partially observed time series. We introduce Consistency-Regularized Information Bottleneck (CRIB), a novel framework built on the Information Bottleneck principle. CRIB combines a unified-variate attention mechanism with a consistency regularization scheme to learn robust representations that filter out noise introduced by missing values while preserving essential predictive signals. Comprehensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CRIB, which predicts accurately even under high missing rates. Our code is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/CRIB.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) ground predictions in human-understandable concepts but face fundamental limitations: the absence of a metric to pre-evaluate concept relevance, the "linearity problem" causing recent CBMs to bypass the concept bottleneck entirely, an accuracy gap compared to opaque models, and finally the lack of systematic study on the impact of different visual backbones and VLMs. We introduce CBM-Suite, a methodological framework to systematically addresses these challenges. First, we propose an entropy-based metric to quantify the intrinsic suitability of a concept set for a given dataset. Second, we resolve the linearity problem by inserting a non-linear layer between concept activations and the classifier, which ensures that model accuracy faithfully reflects concept relevance. Third, we narrow the accuracy gap by leveraging a distillation loss guided by a linear teacher probe. Finally, we provide comprehensive analyses on how different vision encoders, vision-language models, and concept sets interact to influence accuracy and interpretability in CBMs. Extensive evaluations show that CBM-Suite yields more accurate models and provides insights for improving concept-based interpretability.

We present a variational approximation to the information bottleneck of Tishby et al. (1999). This variational approach allows us to parameterize the information bottleneck model using a neural network and leverage the reparameterization trick for efficient training. We call this method "Deep Variational Information Bottleneck", or Deep VIB. We show that models trained with the VIB objective outperform those that are trained with other forms of regularization, in terms of generalization performance and robustness to adversarial attack.

Concept bottleneck models (CBM) aim to produce inherently interpretable models that rely on human-understandable concepts for their predictions. However, existing approaches to design interpretable generative models based on CBMs are not yet efficient and scalable, as they require expensive generative model training from scratch as well as real images with labor-intensive concept supervision. To address these challenges, we present two novel and low-cost methods to build interpretable generative models through post-hoc techniques and we name our approaches: concept-bottleneck autoencoder (CB-AE) and concept controller (CC). Our proposed approaches enable efficient and scalable training without the need of real data and require only minimal to no concept supervision. Additionally, our methods generalize across modern generative model families including generative adversarial networks and diffusion models. We demonstrate the superior interpretability and steerability of our methods on numerous standard datasets like CelebA, CelebA-HQ, and CUB with large improvements (average ~25%) over the prior work, while being 4-15x faster to train. Finally, a large-scale user study is performed to validate the interpretability and steerability of our methods.

This paper investigates the scaling properties of autoregressive next-pixel prediction, a simple, end-to-end yet under-explored framework for unified vision models. Starting with images at resolutions of 32x32, we train a family of Transformers using IsoFlops profiles across compute budgets up to 7e19 FLOPs and evaluate three distinct target metrics: next-pixel prediction objective, ImageNet classification accuracy, and generation quality measured by Fr'echet Distance. First, optimal scaling strategy is critically task-dependent. At a fixed 32x32 resolution alone, the optimal scaling properties for image classification and image generation diverge, where generation optimal setup requires the data size grow three to five times faster than for the classification optimal setup. Second, as image resolution increases, the optimal scaling strategy indicates that the model size must grow much faster than data size. Surprisingly, by projecting our findings, we discover that the primary bottleneck is compute rather than the amount of training data. As compute continues to grow four to five times annually, we forecast the feasibility of pixel-by-pixel modeling of images within the next five years.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

Numerous deep learning algorithms have been inspired by and understood via the notion of information bottleneck, where unnecessary information is (often implicitly) minimized while task-relevant information is maximized. However, a rigorous argument for justifying why it is desirable to control information bottlenecks has been elusive. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous learning theory for justifying the benefit of information bottleneck in deep learning by mathematically relating information bottleneck to generalization errors. Our theory proves that controlling information bottleneck is one way to control generalization errors in deep learning, although it is not the only or necessary way. We investigate the merit of our new mathematical findings with experiments across a range of architectures and learning settings. In many cases, generalization errors are shown to correlate with the degree of information bottleneck: i.e., the amount of the unnecessary information at hidden layers. This paper provides a theoretical foundation for current and future methods through the lens of information bottleneck. Our new generalization bounds scale with the degree of information bottleneck, unlike the previous bounds that scale with the number of parameters, VC dimension, Rademacher complexity, stability or robustness. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/xu-ji/information-bottleneck

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBM) are inherently interpretable models that factor model decisions into human-readable concepts. They allow people to easily understand why a model is failing, a critical feature for high-stakes applications. CBMs require manually specified concepts and often under-perform their black box counterparts, preventing their broad adoption. We address these shortcomings and are first to show how to construct high-performance CBMs without manual specification of similar accuracy to black box models. Our approach, Language Guided Bottlenecks (LaBo), leverages a language model, GPT-3, to define a large space of possible bottlenecks. Given a problem domain, LaBo uses GPT-3 to produce factual sentences about categories to form candidate concepts. LaBo efficiently searches possible bottlenecks through a novel submodular utility that promotes the selection of discriminative and diverse information. Ultimately, GPT-3's sentential concepts can be aligned to images using CLIP, to form a bottleneck layer. Experiments demonstrate that LaBo is a highly effective prior for concepts important to visual recognition. In the evaluation with 11 diverse datasets, LaBo bottlenecks excel at few-shot classification: they are 11.7% more accurate than black box linear probes at 1 shot and comparable with more data. Overall, LaBo demonstrates that inherently interpretable models can be widely applied at similar, or better, performance than black box approaches.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) are regarded as inherently interpretable because they first predict a set of human-defined concepts which are used to predict a task label. For inherent interpretability to be fully realised, and ensure trust in a model's output, it's desirable for concept predictions to use semantically meaningful input features. For instance, in an image, pixels representing a broken bone should contribute to predicting a fracture. However, current literature suggests that concept predictions often rely on irrelevant input features. We hypothesise that this occurs when dataset labels include inaccurate concept annotations, or the relationship between input features and concepts is unclear. In general, the effect of dataset labelling on concept representations remains an understudied area. In this paper, we demonstrate that CBMs can learn to map concepts to semantically meaningful input features, by utilising datasets with a clear link between the input features and the desired concept predictions. This is achieved, for instance, by ensuring multiple concepts do not always co-occur and, therefore provide a clear training signal for the CBM to distinguish the relevant input features for each concept. We validate our hypothesis on both synthetic and real-world image datasets, and demonstrate under the correct conditions, CBMs can learn to attribute semantically meaningful input features to the correct concept predictions.

We propose a novel architecture and method of explainable classification with Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs). While SOTA approaches to Image Classification task work as a black box, there is a growing demand for models that would provide interpreted results. Such a models often learn to predict the distribution over class labels using additional description of this target instances, called concepts. However, existing Bottleneck methods have a number of limitations: their accuracy is lower than that of a standard model and CBMs require an additional set of concepts to leverage. We provide a framework for creating Concept Bottleneck Model from pre-trained multi-modal encoder and new CLIP-like architectures. By introducing a new type of layers known as Concept Bottleneck Layers, we outline three methods for training them: with ell_1-loss, contrastive loss and loss function based on Gumbel-Softmax distribution (Sparse-CBM), while final FC layer is still trained with Cross-Entropy. We show a significant increase in accuracy using sparse hidden layers in CLIP-based bottleneck models. Which means that sparse representation of concepts activation vector is meaningful in Concept Bottleneck Models. Moreover, with our Concept Matrix Search algorithm we can improve CLIP predictions on complex datasets without any additional training or fine-tuning. The code is available at: https://github.com/Andron00e/SparseCBM.

Autonomous machine learning agents have revolutionized scientific discovery, yet they remain constrained by a Generate-Execute-Feedback paradigm. Previous approaches suffer from a severe Execution Bottleneck, as hypothesis evaluation relies strictly on expensive physical execution. To bypass these physical constraints, we internalize execution priors to substitute costly runtime checks with instantaneous predictive reasoning, drawing inspiration from World Models. In this work, we formalize the task of Data-centric Solution Preference and construct a comprehensive corpus of 18,438 pairwise comparisons. We demonstrate that LLMs exhibit significant predictive capabilities when primed with a Verified Data Analysis Report, achieving 61.5% accuracy and robust confidence calibration. Finally, we instantiate this framework in FOREAGENT, an agent that employs a Predict-then-Verify loop, achieving a 6x acceleration in convergence while surpassing execution-based baselines by +6%. Our code and dataset will be publicly available soon at https://github.com/zjunlp/predict-before-execute.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

We rethink test-time scaling laws from a practical efficiency perspective, revealing that the effectiveness of smaller models is significantly overestimated. Prior work, grounded in compute-optimality, overlooks critical memory access bottlenecks introduced by inference-time strategies (e.g., Best-of-N, long CoTs). Our holistic analysis, spanning models from 0.6B to 32B parameters, reveals a new Kinetics Scaling Law that better guides resource allocation by incorporating both computation and memory access costs. Kinetics Scaling Law suggests that test-time compute is more effective when used on models above a threshold than smaller ones. A key reason is that in TTS, attention, rather than parameter count, emerges as the dominant cost factor. Motivated by this, we propose a new scaling paradigm centered on sparse attention, which lowers per-token cost and enables longer generations and more parallel samples within the same resource budget. Empirically, we show that sparse attention models consistently outperform dense counterparts, achieving over 60 points gains in low-cost regimes and over 5 points gains in high-cost regimes for problem-solving accuracy on AIME, encompassing evaluations on state-of-the-art MoEs. These results suggest that sparse attention is essential for realizing the full potential of test-time scaling because, unlike training, where parameter scaling saturates, test-time accuracy continues to improve through increased generation. The code is available at https://github.com/Infini-AI-Lab/Kinetics.

Speculative decoding speeds up autoregressive generation in Large Language Models (LLMs) through a two-step procedure, where a lightweight draft model proposes tokens which the target model then verifies in a single forward pass. Although the drafter network is small in modern architectures, its LM-head still performs projection to a large vocabulary, becoming one of the major computational bottlenecks. In prior work this issue has been predominantly addressed via static or dynamic vocabulary truncation. Yet mitigating the bottleneck, these methods bring in extra complexity, such as special vocabulary curation, sophisticated inference-time logic or modifications of the training setup. In this paper, we propose SlimSpec, a low-rank parameterization of the drafter's LM-head that compresses the inner representation rather than the output, preserving full vocabulary support. We evaluate our method with EAGLE-3 drafter across three target models and diverse benchmarks in both latency- and throughput-bound inference regimes. SlimSpec achieves 4-5times acceleration over the standard LM-head architecture while maintaining a competitive acceptance length, surpassing existing methods by up to 8-9% of the end-to-end speedup. Our method requires minimal adjustments of training and inference pipelines. Combined with the aforementioned speedup improvements, it makes SlimSpec a strong alternative across wide variety of draft LM-head architectures.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) predict through human-interpretable concepts, but they typically output point concept probabilities that conflate epistemic uncertainty (reducible model underspecification) with aleatoric uncertainty (irreducible input ambiguity). This makes concept-level uncertainty hard to interpret and, more importantly, hard to act upon. We introduce CREDENCE (Credal Ensemble Concept Estimation), a CBM framework that decomposes concept uncertainty by construction. CREDENCE represents each concept as a credal prediction (a probability interval), derives epistemic uncertainty from disagreement across diverse concept heads, and estimates aleatoric uncertainty via a dedicated ambiguity output trained to match annotator disagreement when available. The resulting signals support prescriptive decisions: automate low-uncertainty cases, prioritize data collection for high-epistemic cases, route high-aleatoric cases to human review, and abstain when both are high. Across several tasks, we show that epistemic uncertainty is positively associated with prediction errors, whereas aleatoric uncertainty closely tracks annotator disagreement, providing guidance beyond error correlation. Our implementation is available at the following link: https://github.com/Tankiit/Credal_Sets/tree/ensemble-credal-cbm

The last layer of neural language models (LMs) projects output features of dimension D to logits in dimension V, the size of the vocabulary, where usually D ll V. This mismatch is known to raise risks of limited expressivity in neural LMs, creating a so-called softmax bottleneck. We show the softmax bottleneck is not only an expressivity bottleneck but also an optimization bottleneck. Backpropagating V-dimensional gradients through a rank-D linear layer induces unavoidable compression, which alters the training feedback provided to the vast majority of the parameters. We present a theoretical analysis of this phenomenon and measure empirically that 95-99% of the gradient norm is suppressed by the output layer, resulting in vastly suboptimal update directions. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments showing that the gradient bottleneck makes trivial patterns unlearnable, and drastically affects the training dynamics of LLMs. We argue that this inherent flaw contributes to training inefficiencies at scale independently of the model architecture, and raises the need for new LM head designs.

Chart understanding requires models to effectively analyze and reason about numerical data, textual elements, and complex visual components. Our observations reveal that the perception capabilities of existing large vision-language models (LVLMs) constitute a critical bottleneck in this process. In this study, we delve into this perception bottleneck by decomposing it into two components: the vision encoder bottleneck, where the visual representation may fail to encapsulate the correct information, and the extraction bottleneck, where the language model struggles to extract the necessary information from the provided visual representations. Through comprehensive experiments, we find that (1) the information embedded within visual representations is substantially richer than what is typically captured by linear extractors, such as the widely used retrieval accuracy metric; (2) While instruction tuning effectively enhances the extraction capability of LVLMs, the vision encoder remains a critical bottleneck, demanding focused attention and improvement. Therefore, we further enhance the visual encoder to mitigate the vision encoder bottleneck under a contrastive learning framework. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach significantly mitigates the perception bottleneck and improves the ability of LVLMs to comprehend charts. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/Vision4Chart.

The R-Learner is a powerful, theoretically-grounded framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, prized for its robustness to nuisance model errors. However, its application to network data, where causal heterogeneity is often graph-dependent, presents a critical challenge to its core assumption of a well-specified final-stage model. In this paper, we conduct a large-scale empirical study to systematically dissect the R-Learner framework on graphs. We provide the first rigorous evidence that the primary driver of performance is the inductive bias of the final-stage CATE estimator, an effect that dominates the choice of nuisance models. Our central finding is the quantification of a catastrophic "representation bottleneck": we prove with overwhelming statistical significance (p < 0.001) that R-Learners with a graph-blind final stage fail completely (MSE > 4.0), even when paired with powerful GNN nuisance models. Conversely, our proposed end-to-end Graph R-Learner succeeds and significantly outperforms a strong, non-DML GNN T-Learner baseline. Furthermore, we identify and provide a mechanistic explanation for a subtle, topology-dependent "nuisance bottleneck," linking it to GNN over-squashing via a targeted "Hub-Periphery Trade-off" analysis. Our findings are validated across diverse synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks. We release our code as a reproducible benchmark to facilitate future research on this critical "final-stage bottleneck."

Existing research has identified three structural performance bottlenecks in AI research agents: (1) synchronous single-GPU execution constrains sample throughput, limiting the benefit of search; (2) a generalization gap where validation-based selection causes performance to degrade over extended search horizons; and (3) the limited capability of fixed, single-turn LLM operators imposes a ceiling on search performance. We introduce AIRA_2, which addresses these bottlenecks through three architectural choices: an asynchronous multi-GPU worker pool that increases experiment throughput linearly; a Hidden Consistent Evaluation protocol that delivers a reliable evaluation signal; and ReAct agents that dynamically scope their actions and debug interactively. On MLE-bench-30, AIRA_2 achieves a mean Percentile Rank of 71.8% at 24 hours - surpassing the previous best of 69.9% - and steadily improves to 76.0% at 72 hours. Ablation studies reveal that each component is necessary and that the "overfitting" reported in prior work was driven by evaluation noise rather than true data memorization.

Deep neural networks perform well on classification tasks where data streams are i.i.d. and labeled data is abundant. Challenges emerge with non-stationary training data streams such as continual learning. One powerful approach that has addressed this challenge involves pre-training of large encoders on volumes of readily available data, followed by task-specific tuning. Given a new task, however, updating the weights of these encoders is challenging as a large number of weights needs to be fine-tuned, and as a result, they forget information about the previous tasks. In the present work, we propose a model architecture to address this issue, building upon a discrete bottleneck containing pairs of separate and learnable key-value codes. Our paradigm will be to encode; process the representation via a discrete bottleneck; and decode. Here, the input is fed to the pre-trained encoder, the output of the encoder is used to select the nearest keys, and the corresponding values are fed to the decoder to solve the current task. The model can only fetch and re-use a sparse number of these key-value pairs during inference, enabling localized and context-dependent model updates. We theoretically investigate the ability of the discrete key-value bottleneck to minimize the effect of learning under distribution shifts and show that it reduces the complexity of the hypothesis class. We empirically verify the proposed method under challenging class-incremental learning scenarios and show that the proposed model - without any task boundaries - reduces catastrophic forgetting across a wide variety of pre-trained models, outperforming relevant baselines on this task.

Dot-product attention mechanism plays a crucial role in modern deep architectures (e.g., Transformer) for sequence modeling, however, na\"ive exact computation of this model incurs quadratic time and memory complexities in sequence length, hindering the training of long-sequence models. Critical bottlenecks are due to the computation of partition functions in the denominator of softmax function as well as the multiplication of the softmax matrix with the matrix of values. Our key observation is that the former can be reduced to a variant of the kernel density estimation (KDE) problem, and an efficient KDE solver can be further utilized to accelerate the latter via subsampling-based fast matrix products. Our proposed KDEformer can approximate the attention in sub-quadratic time with provable spectral norm bounds, while all prior results merely provide entry-wise error bounds. Empirically, we verify that KDEformer outperforms other attention approximations in terms of accuracy, memory, and runtime on various pre-trained models. On BigGAN image generation, we achieve better generative scores than the exact computation with over 4times speedup. For ImageNet classification with T2T-ViT, KDEformer shows over 18times speedup while the accuracy drop is less than 0.5%.

Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often exhibiting limited cross-domain transferability. We analyze this bottleneck through spatial and temporal entropy measures, which are used as diagnostic indicators of spatiotemporal complexity mismatch rather than as guarantees that entropy alignment alone yields better forecasting. Empirically, larger mismatch is often accompanied by higher prediction uncertainty, especially under a fixed model-capacity budget. Guided by this diagnostic, we propose a scalable, adaptive framework that harmonizes spatial and temporal feature representations. Spatial dimensionality is compressed via low-rank matrix embedding to preserve essential structure, while an extended temporal horizon captures long-range dependencies and mitigates cumulative errors arising from temporal heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on urban traffic, meteorological, and epidemic datasets demonstrate substantial accuracy gains and broad applicability across the evaluated domains, suggesting that the framework is promising for a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks beyond the current study. The code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/ST-Balance/ST-Balance.

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require significant effort and, in some cases, be impossible due to external hardware constraints. To improve predictability across a broader set of hyperparameters and enable simpler tuning at scale, we propose learning a Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (CPL): a mapping from the full training configuration to training performance. Because no simple functional form can express this mapping, we parameterize it with a large language model (LLM), and fit it with diverse open-source pretraining logs across multiple sources, yielding a Neural Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (NCPL). NCPL accurately predicts how training configurations influence the final pretraining loss, achieving 20-40% lower prediction error than the configuration-agnostic Chinchilla law and generalizing to runs using up to 10 x more compute than any run in the training set. It further supports joint tuning of multiple hyperparameters with performance comparable to hyperparameter scaling law baselines. Finally, NCPL naturally and effectively extends to richer prediction targets such as loss-curve prediction.

Modern machine learning requires system designers to specify aspects of the learning pipeline, such as losses, architectures, and optimizers. Meta-learning, or learning-to-learn, instead aims to learn those aspects, and promises to unlock greater capabilities with less manual effort. One particularly ambitious goal of meta-learning is to train general-purpose in-context learning algorithms from scratch, using only black-box models with minimal inductive bias. Such a model takes in training data, and produces test-set predictions across a wide range of problems, without any explicit definition of an inference model, training loss, or optimization algorithm. In this paper we show that Transformers and other black-box models can be meta-trained to act as general-purpose in-context learners. We characterize transitions between algorithms that generalize, algorithms that memorize, and algorithms that fail to meta-train at all, induced by changes in model size, number of tasks, and meta-optimization. We further show that the capabilities of meta-trained algorithms are bottlenecked by the accessible state size (memory) determining the next prediction, unlike standard models which are thought to be bottlenecked by parameter count. Finally, we propose practical interventions such as biasing the training distribution that improve the meta-training and meta-generalization of general-purpose in-context learning algorithms.

We prove theoretically that generalization improves not only through data scaling but also by compressing internal representations. To operationalize this insight, we introduce the Information Bottleneck Language Modeling (IBLM) objective, which reframes language modeling as a constrained optimization problem: minimizing representation entropy subject to optimal prediction performance. Empirically, we observe an emergent memorization-compression cycle during LLM pretraining, evidenced by oscillation positive/negative gradient alignment between cross-entropy and Matrix-Based Entropy (MBE), a measure of representation entropy. This pattern closely mirrors the predictive-compressive trade-off prescribed by IBLM and also parallels the biological alternation between awake learning and sleep consolidation. Motivated by this observation, we propose Gated Phase Transition (GAPT), a training algorithm that adaptively switches between memorization and compression phases. When applied to GPT-2 pretraining on FineWeb dataset, GAPT reduces MBE by 50% and improves cross-entropy by 4.8%. GAPT improves OOD generalizatino by 35% in a pretraining task on arithmetic multiplication. In a setting designed to simulate catastrophic forgetting, GAPT reduces interference by compressing and separating representations, achieving a 97% improvement in separation - paralleling the functional role of sleep consolidation.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

Diffusion Transformers (DiT) have become the de-facto model for generating high-quality visual content like videos and images. A huge bottleneck is the attention mechanism where complexity scales quadratically with resolution and video length. One logical way to lessen this burden is sparse attention, where only a subset of tokens or patches are included in the calculation. However, existing techniques fail to preserve visual quality at extremely high sparsity levels and might even incur non-negligible compute overheads. % To address this concern, we propose Re-ttention, which implements very high sparse attention for visual generation models by leveraging the temporal redundancy of Diffusion Models to overcome the probabilistic normalization shift within the attention mechanism. Specifically, Re-ttention reshapes attention scores based on the prior softmax distribution history in order to preserve the visual quality of the full quadratic attention at very high sparsity levels. % Experimental results on T2V/T2I models such as CogVideoX and the PixArt DiTs demonstrate that Re-ttention requires as few as 3.1\% of the tokens during inference, outperforming contemporary methods like FastDiTAttn, Sparse VideoGen and MInference. Further, we measure latency to show that our method can attain over 45\% end-to-end % and over 92\% self-attention latency reduction on an H100 GPU at negligible overhead cost. Code available online here: https://github.com/cccrrrccc/Re-ttention{https://github.com/cccrrrccc/Re-ttention}

Autoregressive decoding is bottlenecked by its sequential nature. Speculative decoding has become a standard way to accelerate inference by using a fast draft model to predict upcoming tokens from a slower target model, and then verifying them in parallel with a single target model forward pass. However, speculative decoding itself relies on a sequential dependence between speculation and verification. We introduce speculative speculative decoding (SSD) to parallelize these operations. While a verification is ongoing, the draft model predicts likely verification outcomes and prepares speculations pre-emptively for them. If the actual verification outcome is then in the predicted set, a speculation can be returned immediately, eliminating drafting overhead entirely. We identify three key challenges presented by speculative speculative decoding, and suggest principled methods to solve each. The result is Saguaro, an optimized SSD algorithm. Our implementation is up to 2x faster than optimized speculative decoding baselines and up to 5x faster than autoregressive decoding with open source inference engines.

Motivated by the success of Transformers when applied to sequences of discrete symbols, token-based world models (TBWMs) were recently proposed as sample-efficient methods. In TBWMs, the world model consumes agent experience as a language-like sequence of tokens, where each observation constitutes a sub-sequence. However, during imagination, the sequential token-by-token generation of next observations results in a severe bottleneck, leading to long training times, poor GPU utilization, and limited representations. To resolve this bottleneck, we devise a novel Parallel Observation Prediction (POP) mechanism. POP augments a Retentive Network (RetNet) with a novel forward mode tailored to our reinforcement learning setting. We incorporate POP in a novel TBWM agent named REM (Retentive Environment Model), showcasing a 15.4x faster imagination compared to prior TBWMs. REM attains superhuman performance on 12 out of 26 games of the Atari 100K benchmark, while training in less than 12 hours. Our code is available at https://github.com/leor-c/REM.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) enhance the interpretability of neural networks by basing predictions on human-understandable concepts. However, current CBMs typically rely on concept sets extracted from large language models or extensive image corpora, limiting their effectiveness in data-sparse scenarios. We propose Data-efficient CBMs (DCBMs), which reduce the need for large sample sizes during concept generation while preserving interpretability. DCBMs define concepts as image regions detected by segmentation or detection foundation models, allowing each image to generate multiple concepts across different granularities. This removes reliance on textual descriptions and large-scale pre-training, making DCBMs applicable for fine-grained classification and out-of-distribution tasks. Attribution analysis using Grad-CAM demonstrates that DCBMs deliver visual concepts that can be localized in test images. By leveraging dataset-specific concepts instead of predefined ones, DCBMs enhance adaptability to new domains.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) aim to improve interpretability in Deep Learning by structuring predictions through human-understandable concepts, but they provide no way to verify whether learned concepts align with the human's intended meaning, hurting interpretability. We introduce Prototype-Grounded Concept Models (PGCMs), which ground concepts in learned visual prototypes: image parts that serve as explicit evidence for the concepts. This grounding enables direct inspection of concept semantics and supports targeted human intervention at the prototype level to correct misalignments. Empirically, PGCMs achieve similar predictive performance as state-of-the-art CBMs while substantially improving transparency, interpretability, and intervenability.

We propose a fast and simple explainable AI (XAI) method for point cloud data. It computes pointwise importance with respect to a trained network downstream task. This allows better understanding of the network properties, which is imperative for safety-critical applications. In addition to debugging and visualization, our low computational complexity facilitates online feedback to the network at inference. This can be used to reduce uncertainty and to increase robustness. In this work, we introduce Feature Based Interpretability (FBI), where we compute the features' norm, per point, before the bottleneck. We analyze the use of gradients and post- and pre-bottleneck strategies, showing pre-bottleneck is preferred, in terms of smoothness and ranking. We obtain at least three orders of magnitude speedup, compared to current XAI methods, thus, scalable for big point clouds or large-scale architectures. Our approach achieves SOTA results, in terms of classification explainability. We demonstrate how the proposed measure is helpful in analyzing and characterizing various aspects of 3D learning, such as rotation invariance, robustness to out-of-distribution (OOD) outliers or domain shift and dataset bias.

Sequential models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks and Neural Ordinary Differential Equations, have long suffered from slow training due to their inherent sequential nature. For many years this bottleneck has persisted, as many thought sequential models could not be parallelized. We challenge this long-held belief with our parallel algorithm that accelerates GPU evaluation of sequential models by up to 3 orders of magnitude faster without compromising output accuracy. The algorithm does not need any special structure in the sequential models' architecture, making it applicable to a wide range of architectures. Using our method, training sequential models can be more than 10 times faster than the common sequential method without any meaningful difference in the training results. Leveraging this accelerated training, we discovered the efficacy of the Gated Recurrent Unit in a long time series classification problem with 17k time samples. By overcoming the training bottleneck, our work serves as the first step to unlock the potential of non-linear sequential models for long sequence problems.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) lack the hierarchical inductive biases inherent to Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), theoretically allowing them to maintain high-dimensional representations throughout all layers. However, recent observations suggest ViTs often spontaneously manifest a "U-shaped" entropy profile-compressing information in middle layers before expanding it for the final classification. In this work, we demonstrate that this "Inductive Bottleneck" is not an architectural artifact, but a data-dependent adaptation. By analyzing the layer-wise Effective Encoding Dimension (EED) of DINO-trained ViTs across datasets of varying compositional complexity (UC Merced, Tiny ImageNet, and CIFAR-100), we show that the depth of the bottleneck correlates strongly with the semantic abstraction required by the task. We find that while texture-heavy datasets preserve high-rank representations throughout, object-centric datasets drive the network to dampen high-frequency information in middle layers, effectively "learning" a bottleneck to isolate semantic features.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology is revolutionizing the computing industry. Not only its applications have broadened to various sectors but also poses new system design and optimization opportunities. The technology is capable of understanding and responding in multiple modalities. However, the advanced capability currently comes with significant system resource demands. To sustainably scale generative AI capabilities to billions of users in the world, inference must be fast and efficient. This paper pinpoints key system design and optimization opportunities by characterizing a family of emerging multi-modal generation models on real systems. Auto-regressive token generation is a critical latency performance bottleneck, typically dominated by GPU idle time. In addition to memory-intensive attention across the generative AI models, linear operations constitute significant inference latency due to the feed forward networks in Transformer-based models. We demonstrate that state-of-the-art optimization levers, spanning from applications to system software and hardware, set a 3.88x better baseline.

Recent advances in language modeling consist in pretraining highly parameterized neural networks on extremely large web-mined text corpora. Training and inference with such models can be costly in practice, which incentivizes the use of smaller counterparts. However, it has been observed that smaller models can suffer from saturation, characterized as a drop in performance at some advanced point in training followed by a plateau. In this paper, we find that such saturation can be explained by a mismatch between the hidden dimension of smaller models and the high rank of the target contextual probability distribution. This mismatch affects the performance of the linear prediction head used in such models through the well-known softmax bottleneck phenomenon. We measure the effect of the softmax bottleneck in various settings and find that models based on less than 1000 hidden dimensions tend to adopt degenerate latent representations in late pretraining, which leads to reduced evaluation performance.

Discrete diffusion language models (dLLMs) generate text by iteratively denoising a masked sequence. However, standard dLLMs condition each denoising step solely on the current hard-masked sequence, while intermediate continuous representations are discarded after sampling and remasking. We term this bottleneck the Information Island issue: continuous information remains isolated within individual denoising steps and fails to propagate across the trajectory. This bottleneck is especially harmful for reasoning, which requires intermediate reasoning state to be preserved and updated across many denoising steps. To address this limitation, we introduce MetaState, a lightweight recurrent augmentation that equips a frozen dLLM backbone with persistent, fixed-size working memory. MetaState comprises three modules with a shared time conditioner: a cross-attention Mixer that reads backbone activations into memory slots, a GRU-style Updater that integrates information across steps, and a cross-attention Injector that writes the updated memory back into the backbone. We train these modules with a dedicated K-step unrolling pipeline to learn multi-step dynamics. MetaState adds only {sim}0.6% trainable parameters while keeping the backbone frozen, and consistently improves reasoning performance over frozen baselines on mathematical reasoning and code generation benchmarks, with an average gain of 4.5% across all evaluations.

Training large-scale models under given resources requires careful design of parallelism strategies. In particular, the efficiency notion of critical batch size (CBS), concerning the compromise between time and compute, marks the threshold beyond which greater data parallelism leads to diminishing returns. To operationalize it, we propose a measure of CBS and pre-train a series of auto-regressive language models, ranging from 85 million to 1.2 billion parameters, on the C4 dataset. Through extensive hyper-parameter sweeps and careful control of factors such as batch size, momentum, and learning rate along with its scheduling, we systematically investigate the impact of scale on CBS. Then we fit scaling laws with respect to model and data sizes to decouple their effects. Overall, our results demonstrate that CBS scales primarily with data size rather than model size, a finding we justify theoretically through the analysis of infinite-width limits of neural networks and infinite-dimensional least squares regression. Of independent interest, we highlight the importance of common hyper-parameter choices and strategies for studying large-scale pre-training beyond fixed training durations.

Markov processes are widely used mathematical models for describing dynamic systems in various fields. However, accurately simulating large-scale systems at long time scales is computationally expensive due to the short time steps required for accurate integration. In this paper, we introduce an inference process that maps complex systems into a simplified representational space and models large jumps in time. To achieve this, we propose Time-lagged Information Bottleneck (T-IB), a principled objective rooted in information theory, which aims to capture relevant temporal features while discarding high-frequency information to simplify the simulation task and minimize the inference error. Our experiments demonstrate that T-IB learns information-optimal representations for accurately modeling the statistical properties and dynamics of the original process at a selected time lag, outperforming existing time-lagged dimensionality reduction methods.

Clinically deployed deep learning-based segmentation models are known to fail on data outside of their training distributions. While clinicians review the segmentations, these models tend to perform well in most instances, which could exacerbate automation bias. Therefore, detecting out-of-distribution images at inference is critical to warn the clinicians that the model likely failed. This work applied the Mahalanobis distance (MD) post hoc to the bottleneck features of four Swin UNETR and nnU-net models that segmented the liver on T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography. By reducing the dimensions of the bottleneck features with either principal component analysis or uniform manifold approximation and projection, images the models failed on were detected with high performance and minimal computational load. In addition, this work explored a non-parametric alternative to the MD, a k-th nearest neighbors distance (KNN). KNN drastically improved scalability and performance over MD when both were applied to raw and average-pooled bottleneck features.

Transformers are one of the most important machine learning workloads today. Training one is a very compute-intensive task, often taking days or weeks, and significant attention has been given to optimizing transformers. Despite this, existing implementations do not efficiently utilize GPUs. We find that data movement is the key bottleneck when training. Due to Amdahl's Law and massive improvements in compute performance, training has now become memory-bound. Further, existing frameworks use suboptimal data layouts. Using these insights, we present a recipe for globally optimizing data movement in transformers. We reduce data movement by up to 22.91% and overall achieve a 1.30x performance improvement over state-of-the-art frameworks when training a BERT encoder layer and 1.19x for the entire BERT. Our approach is applicable more broadly to optimizing deep neural networks, and offers insight into how to tackle emerging performance bottlenecks.

Instruction tuning improves the ability of large language models (LLMs) to follow diverse human instructions, but achieving strong performance on specific target tasks remains challenging. A critical bottleneck is selecting the most relevant data to maximize task-specific performance. Existing data selection approaches include unstable influence-based methods and more stable distribution alignment methods, the latter of which critically rely on the underlying sample representation. In practice, most distribution alignment methods, from shallow features (e.g., BM25) to neural embeddings (e.g., BGE, LLM2Vec), may fail to capture how the model internally processes samples. To bridge this gap, we adopt a model-centric strategy in which each sample is represented by its neuronal activation pattern in the model, directly reflecting internal computation. However, directly using raw neuron activations leads to spurious similarity between unrelated samples due to neuron polysemanticity, where a single neuron may respond to multiple, unrelated concepts. To address this, we employ sparse autoencoders to disentangle polysemantic activations into sparse, monosemantic representations, and introduce a dedicated similarity metric for this space to better identify task-relevant data. Comprehensive experiments across multiple instruction datasets, models, tasks, and selection ratios show that our approach consistently outperforms existing data selection baselines in both stability and task-specific performance.

Scaling the size of language models to tens of billions of parameters has led to impressive performance on a wide range of tasks. At generation, these models are used auto-regressively, requiring a forward pass for each generated token, and thus reading the full set of parameters from memory. This memory access forms the primary bottleneck for generation and it worsens as the model size increases. Moreover, executing a forward pass for multiple tokens in parallel often takes nearly the same time as it does for just one token. These two observations lead to the development of speculative sampling, where a second smaller model is used to draft a few tokens, that are then validated or rejected using a single forward pass of the large model. Unfortunately, this method requires two models that share the same tokenizer and thus limits its adoption. As an alternative, we propose to use parallel decoding as a way to draft multiple tokens from a single model with no computational cost, nor the need for a second model. Our approach only requires an additional input token that marks the words that will be generated simultaneously. We show promising performance (up to 30% speed-up) while requiring only as few as O(d_{emb}) additional parameters.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

A variety of Auto-Regressive Video Diffusion Models (ARVDM) have achieved remarkable successes in generating realistic long-form videos. However, theoretical analyses of these models remain scant. In this work, we develop theoretical underpinnings for these models and use our insights to improve the performance of existing models. We first develop Meta-ARVDM, a unified framework of ARVDMs that subsumes most existing methods. Using Meta-ARVDM, we analyze the KL-divergence between the videos generated by Meta-ARVDM and the true videos. Our analysis uncovers two important phenomena inherent to ARVDM -- error accumulation and memory bottleneck. By deriving an information-theoretic impossibility result, we show that the memory bottleneck phenomenon cannot be avoided. To mitigate the memory bottleneck, we design various network structures to explicitly use more past frames. We also achieve a significantly improved trade-off between the mitigation of the memory bottleneck and the inference efficiency by compressing the frames. Experimental results on DMLab and Minecraft validate the efficacy of our methods. Our experiments also demonstrate a Pareto-frontier between the error accumulation and memory bottleneck across different methods.

Large language models have been widely adopted across different tasks, but their auto-regressive generation nature often leads to inefficient resource utilization during inference. While batching is commonly used to increase throughput, performance gains plateau beyond a certain batch size, especially with smaller models, a phenomenon that existing literature typically explains as a shift to the compute-bound regime. In this paper, through an in-depth GPU-level analysis, we reveal that large-batch inference remains memory-bound, with most GPU compute capabilities underutilized due to DRAM bandwidth saturation as the primary bottleneck. To address this, we propose a Batching Configuration Advisor (BCA) that optimizes memory allocation, reducing GPU memory requirements with minimal impact on throughput. The freed memory and underutilized GPU compute capabilities can then be leveraged by concurrent workloads. Specifically, we use model replication to improve serving throughput and GPU utilization. Our findings challenge conventional assumptions about LLM inference, offering new insights and practical strategies for improving resource utilization, particularly for smaller language models.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning abilities on mathematical and multi-hop planning tasks. The CoCoNuT (Chain of Continuous Thought) paradigm~hao2024coconut extends this by enabling models to reason in latent space, exploring multiple reasoning paths simultaneously rather than committing to a single chain early on. However, we identify a limitation we term the concept bottleneck. At each reasoning pass, intermediate hidden states are overwritten, causing the model to lose critical facts computed in earlier steps as reasoning depth increases. We observe this empirically. On HotpotQA, vanilla CoCoNuT (10.4\% EM) fails to improve over the CoT baseline (11.0\% EM), and performance degrades with curriculum depth on GSM8K. To address this, we propose AGCLR (Adaptive Gated Continuous Latent Reasoning), which augments CoCoNuT with a Gated Concept Stream. A persistent residual memory maintained across all reasoning passes, controlled by three learned gates: a write gate that commits intermediate facts to memory, a read gate that retrieves relevant prior states, and a forget gate that prunes irrelevant context. Evaluated on GSM8K, HotpotQA, and ProsQA using GPT-2 as our base model, AGCLR achieves consistent improvements across all types of datasets. With the performance gap compounding as curriculum depth increases, directly resolving the concept bottleneck. Code available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/JJJJ/README.md

Additive quantization enables extreme LLM compression with O(1) lookup-table dequantization, making it attractive for edge deployment. Yet at 2-bit precision, it often fails catastrophically, even with extensive search and finetuning. We show that the dominant bottleneck is codebook initialisation. Greedy sequential initialisation frequently places the model in poor optimisation regions that subsequent beam search and PV-tuning struggle to overcome. We analyse this behaviour through the representational ratio ho = N/KM, which characterises the relationship between weight groups and codebook capacity, and propose OA-EM, an output-aware EM initialisation method using Hessian-weighted Mahalanobis distance. Across compression rates, search budgets, and three architectures (Llama 3.2 3B, Llama 3.1 8B, Qwen 2.5 3B), OA-EM consistently produces better solutions after PV-tuning and dominates the quality-compute frontier. The severity of the bottleneck scales with ho: moderate at 3 bpp but extreme at 2 bpp, where poor initialisation can degrade perplexity by orders of magnitude. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of optimisation geometry in compressed model spaces, where initialisation can dominate subsequent search and fine-tuning.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) offer inherent interpretability by initially translating images into human-comprehensible concepts, followed by a linear combination of these concepts for classification. However, the annotation of concepts for visual recognition tasks requires extensive expert knowledge and labor, constraining the broad adoption of CBMs. Recent approaches have leveraged the knowledge of large language models to construct concept bottlenecks, with multimodal models like CLIP subsequently mapping image features into the concept feature space for classification. Despite this, the concepts produced by language models can be verbose and may introduce non-visual attributes, which hurts accuracy and interpretability. In this study, we investigate to avoid these issues by constructing CBMs directly from multimodal models. To this end, we adopt common words as base concept vocabulary and leverage auxiliary unlabeled images to construct a Vision-to-Concept (V2C) tokenizer that can explicitly quantize images into their most relevant visual concepts, thus creating a vision-oriented concept bottleneck tightly coupled with the multimodal model. This leads to our V2C-CBM which is training efficient and interpretable with high accuracy. Our V2C-CBM has matched or outperformed LLM-supervised CBMs on various visual classification benchmarks, validating the efficacy of our approach.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Generative Reward Models (GRMs) have attracted considerable research interest in reward modeling due to their interpretability, inference-time scalability, and potential for refinement through reinforcement learning (RL). However, widely used pairwise GRMs create a computational bottleneck when integrated with RL algorithms such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). This bottleneck arises from two factors: (i) the O(n^2) time complexity of pairwise comparisons required to obtain relative scores, and (ii) the computational overhead of repeated sampling or additional chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning to improve performance. To address the first factor, we propose Intergroup Relative Preference Optimization (IRPO), a novel RL framework that incorporates the well-established Bradley-Terry model into GRPO. By generating a pointwise score for each response, IRPO enables efficient evaluation of arbitrarily many candidates during RL training while preserving interpretability and fine-grained reward signals. Experimental results demonstrate that IRPO achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance among pointwise GRMs across multiple benchmarks, with performance comparable to that of current leading pairwise GRMs. Furthermore, we show that IRPO significantly outperforms pairwise GRMs in post-training evaluations.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting improves LLM accuracy on complex tasks but often increases token usage and inference cost. Existing "Budget Forcing" methods reducing cost via fine-tuning with heuristic length penalties, suppress both essential reasoning and redundant filler. We recast efficient reasoning as a lossy compression problem under the Information Bottleneck (IB) principle, and identify a key theoretical gap when applying naive IB to transformers: attention violates the Markov property between prompt, reasoning trace, and response. To resolve this issue, we model CoT generation under the Conditional Information Bottleneck (CIB) principle, where the reasoning trace Z acts as a computational bridge that contains only the information about the response Y that is not directly accessible from the prompt X. This yields a general Reinforcement Learning objective: maximize task reward while compressing completions under a prior over reasoning traces, subsuming common heuristics (e.g., length penalties) as special cases (e.g., uniform priors). In contrast to naive token-counting-based approaches, we introduce a semantic prior that measures token cost by surprisal under a language model prior. Empirically, our CIB objective prunes cognitive bloat while preserving fluency and logic, improving accuracy at moderate compression and enabling aggressive compression with minimal accuracy drop.

Diffusion and flow-based models have enabled significant progress in generation tasks across various modalities and have recently found applications in world modeling. However, unlike typical generation tasks that encourage sample diversity, world models entail different sources of uncertainty and require consistent samples aligned with the ground-truth trajectory, which is a limitation we empirically observe in diffusion models. We argue that a key bottleneck in learning consistent diffusion-based world models lies in the suboptimal predictive ability, which we attribute to the entanglement of condition understanding and target denoising within shared architectures and co-training schemes. To address this, we propose Foresight Diffusion (ForeDiff), a diffusion-based world modeling framework that enhances consistency by decoupling condition understanding from target denoising. ForeDiff incorporates a separate deterministic predictive stream to process conditioning inputs independently of the denoising stream, and further leverages a pretrained predictor to extract informative representations that guide generation. Extensive experiments on robot video prediction and scientific spatiotemporal forecasting show that ForeDiff improves both predictive accuracy and sample consistency over strong baselines, offering a promising direction for diffusion-based world models.

Black-box deep neural networks excel in text classification, yet their application in high-stakes domains is hindered by their lack of interpretability. To address this, we propose Text Bottleneck Models (TBM), an intrinsically interpretable text classification framework that offers both global and local explanations. Rather than directly predicting the output label, TBM predicts categorical values for a sparse set of salient concepts and uses a linear layer over those concept values to produce the final prediction. These concepts can be automatically discovered and measured by a Large Language Model (LLM) without the need for human curation. Experiments on 12 diverse text understanding datasets demonstrate that TBM can rival the performance of black-box baselines such as few-shot GPT-4 and finetuned DeBERTa while falling short against finetuned GPT-3.5. Comprehensive human evaluation validates that TBM can generate high-quality concepts relevant to the task, and the concept measurement aligns well with human judgments, suggesting that the predictions made by TBMs are interpretable. Overall, our findings suggest that TBM is a promising new framework that enhances interpretability with minimal performance tradeoffs.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance in supervised learning tasks but require large amounts of labeled data. Self-supervised learning offers an alternative paradigm, enabling the model to learn from data without explicit labels. Information theory has been instrumental in understanding and optimizing deep neural networks. Specifically, the information bottleneck principle has been applied to optimize the trade-off between compression and relevant information preservation in supervised settings. However, the optimal information objective in self-supervised learning remains unclear. In this paper, we review various approaches to self-supervised learning from an information-theoretic standpoint and present a unified framework that formalizes the self-supervised information-theoretic learning problem. We integrate existing research into a coherent framework, examine recent self-supervised methods, and identify research opportunities and challenges. Moreover, we discuss empirical measurement of information-theoretic quantities and their estimators. This paper offers a comprehensive review of the intersection between information theory, self-supervised learning, and deep neural networks.

The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has necessitated the adoption of parallel training techniques, involving the deployment of thousands of GPUs to train a single model. Unfortunately, we have found that the efficiency of current parallel training is often suboptimal, largely due to the following two main issues. Firstly, hardware failures are inevitable, leading to interruptions in the training tasks. The inability to quickly identify the faulty components results in a substantial waste of GPU resources. Secondly, since GPUs must wait for parameter synchronization to complete before proceeding to the next round of computation, network congestions can greatly increase the waiting time for GPUs. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a communication-driven solution, namely the C4. The key insights of C4 are two folds. First, in parallel training, collective communication exhibits periodic and homogeneous characteristics, so any anomalies are certainly due to some form of hardware malfunction. By leveraging this feature, C4 can rapidly identify the faulty components, swiftly isolate the anomaly, and restart the task, thereby avoiding resource wastage caused by delays in anomaly detection. Second, the predictable communication model of collective communication, involving few large flows, allows C4 to efficiently execute traffic planning, substantially reducing network congestion. C4 has been extensively implemented across our production systems, cutting error-induced overhead by roughly 30% and enhancing runtime performance by about 15% for certain applications with moderate communication costs.

Interpretable models are designed to make decisions in a human-interpretable manner. Representatively, Concept Bottleneck Models (CBM) follow a two-step process of concept prediction and class prediction based on the predicted concepts. CBM provides explanations with high-level concepts derived from concept predictions; thus, reliable concept predictions are important for trustworthiness. In this study, we address the ambiguity issue that can harm reliability. While the existence of a concept can often be ambiguous in the data, CBM predicts concepts deterministically without considering this ambiguity. To provide a reliable interpretation against this ambiguity, we propose Probabilistic Concept Bottleneck Models (ProbCBM). By leveraging probabilistic concept embeddings, ProbCBM models uncertainty in concept prediction and provides explanations based on the concept and its corresponding uncertainty. This uncertainty enhances the reliability of the explanations. Furthermore, as class uncertainty is derived from concept uncertainty in ProbCBM, we can explain class uncertainty by means of concept uncertainty. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ejkim47/prob-cbm.

Long-horizon Flexible Job-Shop Scheduling~(FJSP) presents a formidable combinatorial challenge due to complex, interdependent decisions spanning extended time horizons. While learning-based Rolling Horizon Optimization~(RHO) has emerged as a promising paradigm to accelerate solving by identifying and fixing invariant operations, its effectiveness is hindered by the structural complexity of FJSP. Existing methods often fail to capture intricate graph-structured dependencies and ignore the asymmetric costs of prediction errors, in which misclassifying critical-path operations is significantly more detrimental than misclassifying non-critical ones. Furthermore, dynamic shifts in predictive confidence during the rolling process make static pruning thresholds inadequate. To address these limitations, we propose Graph-RHO, a novel critical-path-aware graph-based RHO framework. First, we introduce a topology-aware heterogeneous graph network that encodes subproblems as operation-machine graphs with multi-relational edges, leveraging edge-feature-aware message passing to predict operation stability. Second, we incorporate a critical-path-aware mechanism that injects inductive biases during training to distinguish highly sensitive bottleneck operations from robust ones. Third, we devise an adaptive thresholding strategy that dynamically calibrates decision boundaries based on online uncertainty estimation to align model predictions with the solver's search space. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that Graph-RHO establishes a new state of the art in solution quality and computational efficiency. Remarkably, it exhibits exceptional zero-shot generalization, reducing solve time by over 30\% on large-scale instances (2000 operations) while achieving superior solution quality. Our code is available https://github.com/IntelliSensing/Graph-RHO{here}.

The creation of practical deep learning data-products often requires parallelization across processors and computers to make deep learning feasible on large data sets, but bottlenecks in communication bandwidth make it difficult to attain good speedups through parallelism. Here we develop and test 8-bit approximation algorithms which make better use of the available bandwidth by compressing 32-bit gradients and nonlinear activations to 8-bit approximations. We show that these approximations do not decrease predictive performance on MNIST, CIFAR10, and ImageNet for both model and data parallelism and provide a data transfer speedup of 2x relative to 32-bit parallelism. We build a predictive model for speedups based on our experimental data, verify its validity on known speedup data, and show that we can obtain a speedup of 50x and more on a system of 96 GPUs compared to a speedup of 23x for 32-bit. We compare our data types with other methods and show that 8-bit approximations achieve state-of-the-art speedups for model parallelism. Thus 8-bit approximation is an efficient method to parallelize convolutional networks on very large systems of GPUs.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

Real-world multichannel time series prediction faces growing demands for efficiency across edge and cloud environments, making channel compression a timely and essential problem. Motivated by success of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) methods, we propose a predictability-aware compression-decompression framework to reduce runtime, lower communication cost, and maintain prediction accuracy across diverse predictors. The core idea involves using a circular periodicity key matrix with orthogonality to capture underlying time series predictability during compression and to mitigate reconstruction errors during decompression by relaxing oversimplified data assumptions. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that the proposed framework is both time-efficient and scalable under a large number of channels. Extensive experiments on six datasets across various predictors demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior overall performance by jointly considering prediction accuracy and runtime, while maintaining strong compatibility with diverse predictors.

Speculative decoding has become the standard approach for accelerating Large Language Model (LLM) inference. It exploits a lossless draft-then-verify procedure to circumvent the latency of autoregressive decoding, achieving impressive speed-ups. Yet, current speculative decoding approaches remain limited by two fundamental bottlenecks: (1) the autoregressive dependency during drafting which limits parallelism, and (2) frequent rejections of draft tokens caused by misalignment between the draft and verify models. This paper proposes SpecDiff-2, a novel framework to jointly address these two bottlenecks. It leverages discrete diffusion as a non-autoregressive drafter to address bottleneck (1) and develops novel techniques to calibrate discrete diffusion drafters with autoregressive verifiers, addressing bottleneck (2). Experimental results across a comprehensive benchmark suite show that SpecDiff-2 achieves a new state-of-the-art across reasoning, coding, and mathematical benchmarks, improving tokens-per-second by up to an average of +55% over previous baselines and obtaining up to 5.5x average speed-up over standard decoding, without any loss of accuracy.

Adding memory to pretrained language models typically requires architectural changes or weight modification. We present Prometheus Mind, which retrofits memory to a frozen Qwen3-4B using 11 modular adapters (530MB, 7% overhead) -- fully reversible by removing the adapters. Building this system required solving four problems: (1) Extraction -- we develop Contrastive Direction Discovery (CDD), which finds semantic directions via minimal pairs without labeled data. (2) Training -- end-to-end optimization collapses; stage-wise training of each adapter on simple proxy tasks succeeds. (3) Injection -- learned encoders fail to generalize; we find that lm_head-weight rows already provide the mapping we need, requiring no training. (4) Hidden state collapse -- transformers make ``wife'' and ``brother'' 0.98+ similar; we train projections to recover distinction (0.98 rightarrow 0.09). On PrometheusExtract-132 (132 cases), the system achieves 94.4% retrieval on clean inputs (n=54, 95% CI: [84.9%, 98.1%]), degrading to 19.4% on informal inputs with ellipsis, filler words, or implicit subjects (n=36). The primary bottleneck is relation classification (47.3% accuracy), responsible for most extraction errors.

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit a troubling duality, capable of both remarkable generalization and brittle, verbatim memorization of their training data. This unpredictability undermines their reliability in high-stakes applications. In this work, we propose a unified framework to understand, identify, and control these distinct reasoning modes. First, we introduce a theoretical model based on the Information Bottleneck (IB) principle, formalizing generalization as the learning of a compressed, task-relevant representation and memorization as a failure to compress. Building on this theory, we develop Dynamic Mode Steering (DMS), a novel inference-time algorithm which comprises two components: (1) a lightweight, causally-grounded linear probe that identifies the model's instantaneous reliance on memorization, and (2) a dynamic activation steering mechanism that nudges the model's computation towards pre-identified generalization circuits. We frame DMS as a form of adaptive, self-contrastive decoding. Experiments on reasoning and faithfulness tasks demonstrate that DMS significantly improves logical consistency and factual accuracy, thereby offering a principled approach to enhancing LLM reliability.

Recent years have seen significant advancements in foundation models through generative pre-training, yet algorithmic innovation in this space has largely stagnated around autoregressive models for discrete signals and diffusion models for continuous signals. This stagnation creates a bottleneck that prevents us from fully unlocking the potential of rich multi-modal data, which in turn limits the progress on multimodal intelligence. We argue that an inference-first perspective, which prioritizes scaling efficiency during inference time across sequence length and refinement steps, can inspire novel generative pre-training algorithms. Using Inductive Moment Matching (IMM) as a concrete example, we demonstrate how addressing limitations in diffusion models' inference process through targeted modifications yields a stable, single-stage algorithm that achieves superior sample quality with over an order of magnitude greater inference efficiency.

Large language models (LLMs) benefit from test-time scaling but are often hampered by high inference latency. Speculative decoding is a natural way to accelerate the scaling process; however, scaling along both the parallel and sequential dimensions poses significant challenges, including substantial memory-bound execution and synchronization overhead. We introduce ATTS (Asynchronous Test-Time Scaling), a statistically guaranteed adaptive scaling framework that follows the hypothesis testing process to address these challenges. By revisiting arithmetic intensity, ATTS identifies synchronization as the primary bottleneck. It enables asynchronous inference through online calibration and proposes an ordinal classification algorithm that supports a three-stage rejection sampling pipeline, scaling along both the sequential and parallel axes. Across experiments on the MATH, AMC23, AIME24, and AIME25 datasets and across multiple draft-target model families, we show that ATTS delivers up to 56.7x speedup in test-time scaling and a 4.14x throughput improvement, while maintaining accurate control of the rejection rate, reducing latency and memory overhead, and incurring no accuracy loss. By scaling both in parallel and sequential dimensions, we enable the 1.5B/70B draft/target model combination to achieve the performance of the state-of-the-art reasoning model o3-mini (high) on the AIME dataset. We have released the code at https://github.com/menik1126/asynchronous-test-time-scaling.

The availability of unprecedented unsupervised training data, along with neural scaling laws, has resulted in an unprecedented surge in model size and compute requirements for serving/training LLMs. However, the main performance bottleneck is increasingly shifting to memory bandwidth. Over the past 20 years, peak server hardware FLOPS has been scaling at 3.0x/2yrs, outpacing the growth of DRAM and interconnect bandwidth, which have only scaled at 1.6 and 1.4 times every 2 years, respectively. This disparity has made memory, rather than compute, the primary bottleneck in AI applications, particularly in serving. Here, we analyze encoder and decoder Transformer models and show how memory bandwidth can become the dominant bottleneck for decoder models. We argue for a redesign in model architecture, training, and deployment strategies to overcome this memory limitation.

Large language model fine-tuning is bottlenecked by memory: a 7B parameter model requires 84GB--14GB for weights, 14GB for gradients, and 56GB for FP32 optimizer states--exceeding even A100-40GB capacity. We present Chronicals, an open-source training framework achieving 3.51x speedup over Unsloth through four synergistic optimizations: (1) fused Triton kernels eliminating 75% of memory traffic via RMSNorm (7x), SwiGLU (5x), and QK-RoPE (2.3x) fusion; (2) Cut Cross-Entropy reducing logit memory from 5GB to 135MB through online softmax computation; (3) LoRA+ with theoretically-derived 16x differential learning rates between adapter matrices; and (4) Best-Fit Decreasing sequence packing recovering 60-75% of compute wasted on padding. On Qwen2.5-0.5B with A100-40GB, Chronicals achieves 41,184 tokens/second for full fine-tuning versus Unsloth's 11,736 tokens/second (3.51x). For LoRA at rank 32, we reach 11,699 tokens/second versus Unsloth MAX's 2,857 tokens/second (4.10x). Critically, we discovered that Unsloth's reported 46,000 tokens/second benchmark exhibited zero gradient norms--the model was not training. We provide complete mathematical foundations: online softmax correctness proofs, FlashAttention IO complexity bounds O(N^2 d^2 M^{-1}), LoRA+ learning rate derivations from gradient magnitude analysis, and bin-packing approximation guarantees. All implementations, benchmarks, and proofs are available at https://github.com/Ajwebdevs/Chronicals with pip installation via https://pypi.org/project/chronicals/.

In this work, we study how multi-head latent attention (MLA), a popular strategy for compressing key/value memory, affects a transformer's internal capacity during pretraining. Using a lightweight suite of Marchenko-Pastur (MP) diagnostics, we analyze the spectrum of the W_{Q}W_{K}^top gram matrix throughout training, comparing three variants: the standard multi-head attention (MHA) baseline, MLA-PreRoPE with rotary applied before compression, and MLA-Decoupled, which shares a single rotary sub-vector across all heads. Our random matrix analysis reveals three key findings: i) capacity bottlenecks emerge locally: both MHA and MLA-PreRoPE exhibit sharp, early spikes in specific layers that persist and propagate, disrupting the balance between bulk and outlier directions; ii) these spikes coincide with rank collapse, concentrating the model's expressivity into narrow subspaces; iii) only the decoupled variant prevents this cascade, maintaining broad spectral support and suppressing outlier formation across layers. These results underscore that how rotary embeddings are applied is just as critical as where compression occurs. Sharing rotary components across heads mitigates spectral fragmentation and preserves representational capacity.

Attention, as a core layer of the ubiquitous Transformer architecture, is the bottleneck for large language models and long-context applications. While FlashAttention-3 optimized attention for Hopper GPUs through asynchronous execution and warp specialization, it primarily targets the H100 architecture. The AI industry has rapidly transitioned to deploying Blackwell-based systems such as the B200 and GB200, which exhibit fundamentally different performance characteristics due to asymmetric hardware scaling: tensor core throughput doubles while other functional units (shared memory bandwidth, exponential units) scale more slowly or remain unchanged. We develop several techniques to address these shifting bottlenecks on Blackwell GPUs: (1) redesigned pipelines that exploit fully asynchronous MMA operations and larger tile sizes, (2) software-emulated exponential and conditional softmax rescaling that reduces non-matmul operations, and (3) leveraging tensor memory and the 2-CTA MMA mode to reduce shared memory traffic and atomic adds in the backward pass. We demonstrate that our method, FlashAttention-4, achieves up to 1.3times speedup over cuDNN 9.13 and 2.7times over Triton on B200 GPUs with BF16, reaching up to 1613 TFLOPs/s (71% utilization). Beyond algorithmic innovations, we implement FlashAttention-4 entirely in CuTe-DSL embedded in Python, achieving 20-30times faster compile times compared to traditional C++ template-based approaches while maintaining full expressivity.

Recent advances in visual generation have made significant strides in producing content of exceptional quality. However, most methods suffer from a fundamental problem - a bottleneck of inference computational efficiency. Most of these algorithms involve multiple passes over a transformer model to generate tokens or denoise inputs. However, the model size is kept consistent throughout all iterations, which makes it computationally expensive. In this work, we aim to address this issue primarily through two key ideas - (a) not all parts of the generation process need equal compute, and we design a decode time model scaling schedule to utilize compute effectively, and (b) we can cache and reuse some of the computation. Combining these two ideas leads to using smaller models to process more tokens while large models process fewer tokens. These different-sized models do not increase the parameter size, as they share parameters. We rigorously experiment with ImageNet256times256 , UCF101, and Kinetics600 to showcase the efficacy of the proposed method for image/video generation and frame prediction. Our experiments show that with almost 3times less compute than baseline, our model obtains competitive performance.

While low-latency interaction is critical for spoken dialogue, cascaded architectures are often bottlenecked by reactive turn-completion detection. We propose Endpoint Anticipation, shifting from reactive detection to proactive forecasting of end-of-turn signals. Our speech-based model anticipates endpoints upto 2.56 seconds in advance, enabling speculative execution of LLM and TTS pipelines on partial context. We introduce metrics to quantify the trade-off between realized latency reduction and computational redundancy. Evaluation across conversational and task-oriented datasets shows our model consistently outperforms competitive VAP-based baselines. Integration with the Unmute framework demonstrates a 505 ms average latency reduction with a 28.4% increase in speculative computation, effectively masking sequential bottlenecks to enable complex reasoning in real-time speech-to-speech interaction.

Neural audio codecs and autoencoders have emerged as versatile models for audio compression, transmission, feature-extraction, and latent-space generation. However, a key limitation is that most are trained to maximize reconstruction fidelity, often neglecting the specific latent structure necessary for optimal performance in diverse downstream applications. We propose a simple, post-hoc framework to address this by modifying the bottleneck of a pre-trained autoencoder. Our method introduces a "Re-Bottleneck", an inner bottleneck trained exclusively through latent space losses to instill user-defined structure. We demonstrate the framework's effectiveness in three experiments. First, we enforce an ordering on latent channels without sacrificing reconstruction quality. Second, we align latents with semantic embeddings, analyzing the impact on downstream diffusion modeling. Third, we introduce equivariance, ensuring that a filtering operation on the input waveform directly corresponds to a specific transformation in the latent space. Ultimately, our Re-Bottleneck framework offers a flexible and efficient way to tailor representations of neural audio models, enabling them to seamlessly meet the varied demands of different applications with minimal additional training.

Deep neural network (DNN) inference has become an important part of many data-center workloads. This has prompted focused efforts to design ever-faster deep learning accelerators such as GPUs and TPUs. However, an end-to-end DNN-based vision application contains more than just DNN inference, including input decompression, resizing, sampling, normalization, and data transfer. In this paper, we perform a thorough evaluation of computer vision inference requests performed on a throughput-optimized serving system. We quantify the performance impact of server overheads such as data movement, preprocessing, and message brokers between two DNNs producing outputs at different rates. Our empirical analysis encompasses many computer vision tasks including image classification, segmentation, detection, depth-estimation, and more complex processing pipelines with multiple DNNs. Our results consistently demonstrate that end-to-end application performance can easily be dominated by data processing and data movement functions (up to 56% of end-to-end latency in a medium-sized image, and sim 80% impact on system throughput in a large image), even though these functions have been conventionally overlooked in deep learning system design. Our work identifies important performance bottlenecks in different application scenarios, achieves 2.25times better throughput compared to prior work, and paves the way for more holistic deep learning system design.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) promise a unified approach for mechanistic interpretability, concept discovery, and model steering in LLMs and LVLMs. However, realizing this potential requires that the learned features be both interpretable and steerable. To that end, we introduce two new computationally inexpensive interpretability and steerability metrics and conduct a systematic analysis on LVLMs. Our analysis uncovers two observations; (i) a majority of SAE neurons exhibit either low interpretability or low steerability or both, rendering them ineffective for downstream use; and (ii) due to the unsupervised nature of SAEs, user-desired concepts are often absent in the learned dictionary, thus limiting their practical utility. To address these limitations, we propose Concept Bottleneck Sparse Autoencoders (CB-SAE) - a novel post-hoc framework that prunes low-utility neurons and augments the latent space with a lightweight concept bottleneck aligned to a user-defined concept set. The resulting CB-SAE improves interpretability by +32.1% and steerability by +14.5% across LVLMs and image generation tasks. We will make our code and model weights available.

The Koopman operator provides a powerful framework for modeling dynamical systems and has attracted growing interest from the machine learning community. However, its infinite-dimensional nature makes identifying suitable finite-dimensional subspaces challenging, especially for deep architectures. We argue that these difficulties come from suboptimal representation learning, where latent variables fail to balance expressivity and simplicity. This tension is closely related to the information bottleneck (IB) dilemma: constructing compressed representations that are both compact and predictive. Rethinking Koopman learning through this lens, we demonstrate that latent mutual information promotes simplicity, yet an overemphasis on simplicity may cause latent space to collapse onto a few dominant modes. In contrast, expressiveness is sustained by the von Neumann entropy, which prevents such collapse and encourages mode diversity. This insight leads us to propose an information-theoretic Lagrangian formulation that explicitly balances this tradeoff. Furthermore, we propose a new algorithm based on the Lagrangian formulation that encourages both simplicity and expressiveness, leading to a stable and interpretable Koopman representation. Beyond quantitative evaluations, we further visualize the learned manifolds under our representations, observing empirical results consistent with our theoretical predictions. Finally, we validate our approach across a diverse range of dynamical systems, demonstrating improved performance over existing Koopman learning methods. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/Wenxuan52/InformationKoopman.

Data preprocessing pipelines, which includes data decoding, cleaning, and transforming, are a crucial component of Machine Learning (ML) training. Thy are computationally intensive and often become a major bottleneck, due to the increasing performance gap between the CPUs used for preprocessing and the GPUs used for model training. Recent studies show that a significant number of CPUs across several machines are required to achieve sufficient throughput to saturate the GPUs, leading to increased resource and energy consumption. When the pipeline involves vocabulary generation, the preprocessing performance scales poorly due to significant row-wise synchronization overhead between different CPU cores and servers. To address this limitation, in this paper we present the design of Piper, a hardware accelerator for tabular data preprocessing, prototype it on FPGAs, and demonstrate its potential for training pipelines of commercial recommender systems. Piper achieves 4.7 sim 71.3times speedup in latency over a 128-core CPU server and outperforms a data-center GPU by 4.8sim 20.3times when using binary input. The impressive performance showcases Piper's potential to increase the efficiency of data preprocessing pipelines and significantly reduce their resource consumption.

Multi-head self-attention (MHSA) is a key component of Transformers, a widely popular architecture in both language and vision. Multiple heads intuitively enable different parallel processes over the same input. Yet, they also obscure the attribution of each input patch to the output of a model. We propose a novel 1-head Transformer Attention Bottleneck (TAB) layer, inserted after the traditional MHSA architecture, to serve as an attention bottleneck for interpretability and intervention. Unlike standard self-attention, TAB constrains the total attention over all patches to in [0, 1]. That is, when the total attention is 0, no visual information is propagated further into the network and the vision-language model (VLM) would default to a generic, image-independent response. To demonstrate the advantages of TAB, we train VLMs with TAB to perform image difference captioning. Over three datasets, our models perform similarly to baseline VLMs in captioning but the bottleneck is superior in localizing changes and in identifying when no changes occur. TAB is the first architecture to enable users to intervene by editing attention, which often produces expected outputs by VLMs.

Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference, but SOTA hidden-state-based drafters suffer from long-range decay: draft accuracy degrades as the speculative step increases. Existing work attributes this decay to train-inference mismatch and proposes test-time training (TTT) as a remedy, yet we observe that long-range decay persists even in TTT-trained drafters. We revisit long-range decay from the perspective of context information preservation. In hidden-state reuse, we argue the target hidden state acts as a biased context compression: it aggregates historical token information according to the attention query at the current position, yielding a compact representation optimized for immediate next-token prediction. This compression can suppress information less relevant to the current query but important for later speculative steps. In contrast, the target model's KV cache serves as an explicit context, retaining the complete set of token-wise KV representations. We therefore posit the KV-Reuse Hypothesis: allowing the draft model to reuse the target KV cache can provide richer signals for long-horizon drafting. To test this hypothesis, we introduce KVShot, a diagnostic framework that compares three reuse paradigms: hidden-only, KV-only, and hybrid. Extensive evaluations on Qwen3-8B show that KV-Reuse improves long-range acceptance, although end-to-end speedups remain marginal under current training pipelines. Our analysis identifies two key structural bottlenecks: shallow drafters struggle to estimate target queries accurately, and draft-side KV projections receive sparse gradient signals. These findings suggest that realizing the full potential of KV-aware decoding requires moving beyond TTT toward block-wise training paradigms. By exposing these bottlenecks, KVShot provides a foundational diagnostic testbed and a clear roadmap for designing next-generation inference architectures.

We document empirical capability ceilings in decoder-only autoregressive language models across knowledge-intensive tasks. Systematic evaluation of OPT and Pythia model families (70M-30B parameters, spanning 240 times scaling) reveals that knowledge retrieval tasks show negligible accuracy improvement despite smooth loss reduction. On MMLU mathematics benchmarks, accuracy remains flat at 19-20% (below 25% random chance) across all scales while cross-entropy loss decreases by 31%. In contrast, procedural tasks like arithmetic show conventional scaling where both metrics improve together. Attention intervention experiments reveal high sensitivity to perturbation: swapping attention patterns between models causes catastrophic performance collapse (complete accuracy loss) rather than graceful degradation. These measurements have immediate engineering implications: for knowledge-intensive applications using OPT and Pythia architectures, parameter scaling beyond 1-2B offers minimal accuracy gains despite continued loss improvement. Our findings quantify capability-specific scaling failures in these model families to inform resource allocation decisions. Whether these patterns reflect fundamental constraints of decoder-only architectures or implementation-specific limitations remains an open question requiring investigation across diverse architectural approaches.

Evaluating neural network performance is critical to deep neural network design but a costly procedure. Neural predictors provide an efficient solution by treating architectures as samples and learning to estimate their performance on a given task. However, existing predictors are task-dependent, predominantly estimating neural network performance on image classification benchmarks. They are also search-space dependent; each predictor is designed to make predictions for a specific architecture search space with predefined topologies and set of operations. In this paper, we propose a novel All-in-One Predictor (AIO-P), which aims to pretrain neural predictors on architecture examples from multiple, separate computer vision (CV) task domains and multiple architecture spaces, and then transfer to unseen downstream CV tasks or neural architectures. We describe our proposed techniques for general graph representation, efficient predictor pretraining and knowledge infusion techniques, as well as methods to transfer to downstream tasks/spaces. Extensive experimental results show that AIO-P can achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Spearman's Rank Correlation (SRCC) below 1% and above 0.5, respectively, on a breadth of target downstream CV tasks with or without fine-tuning, outperforming a number of baselines. Moreover, AIO-P can directly transfer to new architectures not seen during training, accurately rank them and serve as an effective performance estimator when paired with an algorithm designed to preserve performance while reducing FLOPs.

Models for low-latency, streaming applications could benefit from the knowledge capacity of larger models, but edge devices cannot run these models due to resource constraints. A possible solution is to transfer hints during inference from a large model running remotely to a small model running on-device. However, this incurs a communication delay that breaks real-time requirements and does not guarantee that both models will operate on the same data at the same time. We propose knowledge boosting, a novel technique that allows a large model to operate on time-delayed input during inference, while still boosting small model performance. Using a streaming neural network that processes 8 ms chunks, we evaluate different speech separation and enhancement tasks with communication delays of up to six chunks or 48 ms. Our results show larger gains where the performance gap between the small and large models is wide, demonstrating a promising method for large-small model collaboration for low-latency applications. Code, dataset, and audio samples available at https://knowledgeboosting.cs.washington.edu/.

Large language models often fail at simple counting tasks, even when the items to count are explicitly present in the prompt. We investigate whether this failure occurs because transformers do not represent counts internally, or because they cannot convert those representations into the correct output tokens. Across three model families, Pythia, Qwen3, and Mistral, ranging from 0.4B to 14B parameters, we find strong evidence for the second explanation. Linear probes recover the correct count from intermediate layers with near-perfect accuracy (R^2>0.99), showing that the information is present. However, the internal directions that encode counts are nearly orthogonal to the output-head rows for digit tokens (|cos|leq0.032). In other words, the model stores the count in a form that the digit logits do not naturally read out. We localize this failure with two interventions. Updating only the digit rows of the output head (36,864 parameters) substantially improves constrained next-token digit prediction (60.7 to 100.0% across four tasks), but it does not fix autoregressive generation. By contrast, a small LoRA intervention on attention Q/V weights (7.67M parameters) improves upstream routing and achieves 83.1% +/- 7.2% in true greedy autoregressive generation. Logit-lens measurements confirm the mechanism: the correct digit's vocabulary rank drops from 55,980 to 1, a 50,000x improvement. Additional norm, logit-lens, and cross-task analyses show that the bottleneck generalizes across character counting, addition, and list length, while remaining absent from broader multi-step reasoning benchmarks, including MMLU, GSM8K, and DROP. These results identify counting failure as a geometric readout bottleneck rather than a failure of internal representation: the model knows the count but the output pathway is geometrically misaligned with the tokens needed to express it.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Attention encoder-decoder model architecture is the backbone of several recent top performing foundation speech models: Whisper, Seamless, OWSM, and Canary-1B. However, the reported data and compute requirements for their training are prohibitive for many in the research community. In this work, we focus on the efficiency angle and ask the questions of whether we are training these speech models efficiently, and what can we do to improve? We argue that a major, if not the most severe, detrimental factor for training efficiency is related to the sampling strategy of sequential data. We show that negligence in mini-batch sampling leads to more than 50% computation being spent on padding. To that end, we study, profile, and optimize Canary-1B training to show gradual improvement in GPU utilization leading up to 5x increase in average batch sizes versus its original training settings. This in turn allows us to train an equivalent model using 4x less GPUs in the same wall time, or leverage the original resources and train it in 2x shorter wall time. Finally, we observe that the major inference bottleneck lies in the autoregressive decoder steps. We find that adjusting the model architecture to transfer model parameters from the decoder to the encoder results in a 3x inference speedup as measured by inverse real-time factor (RTFx) while preserving the accuracy and compute requirements for convergence. The training code and models will be available as open-source.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

Video generation models produce visually compelling results but systematically violate physical commonsense -- on VideoPhy-2, the best model achieves only 32.6% joint accuracy. We identify a specification bottleneck: text prompts are lossy compression of the physical world, omitting the parameters that fully determine dynamics, and no amount of model scaling can recover what was never specified. From this diagnosis we derive three properties that physics conditioning must satisfy -- sufficiency, dynamism, and verifiability -- and show that no existing approach satisfies all three. We present NEWTON, in which video generation is demoted from the system output to one action inside an agent's toolbox: a learned planner orchestrates physics-aware tools (keyframe generation, scientific computation, prompt refinement) to construct rich conditioning, and a verifier closes the loop for iterative re-planning. The planner is the sole trainable component, optimized on-policy via Flow-GRPO inside the live multi-turn loop. On VideoPhy-2, NEWTON improves joint accuracy from 21.4% to 29.7% on LTX-Video and from 30.7% to 37.4% on Veo-3.1, without modifying either generator. Our project page: https://Newton026.github.io/newton{https://Newton026.github.io/newton}

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Inference with transformer-based language models begins with a prompt processing step. In this step, the model generates the first output token and stores the KV cache needed for future generation steps. This prompt processing step can be computationally expensive, taking 10s of seconds or more for billion-parameter models on edge devices when prompt lengths or batch sizes rise. This degrades user experience by introducing significant latency into the model's outputs. To reduce the time spent producing the first output (known as the ``time to first token'', or TTFT) of a pretrained model, we introduce a novel method called KV Prediction. In our method, a small auxiliary model is used to process the prompt and produce an approximation of the KV cache used by a base model. This approximated KV cache is then used with the base model for autoregressive generation without the need to query the auxiliary model again. We demonstrate that our method produces a pareto-optimal efficiency-accuracy trade-off when compared to baselines. On TriviaQA, we demonstrate relative accuracy improvements in the range of 15%-50% across a range of TTFT FLOPs budgets. We also demonstrate accuracy improvements of up to 30% on HumanEval python code completion at fixed TTFT FLOPs budgets. Additionally, we benchmark models on an Apple M2 Pro CPU and demonstrate that our improvement in FLOPs translates to a TTFT speedup on hardware. We release our code at https://github.com/apple/corenet/tree/main/projects/kv-prediction .

A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout S = |W_{out} W_{in}|, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at p < 10^{-5}. We package the protocol used to test that claim -- standardized synthetic generators (VAR/Lorenz/CauseMe-style), three intervention semantics (do(X=c), soft-noise, random-forcing), edge-provenance cards on three real datasets, and size-matched control arms -- as a reusable falsification benchmark, and walk the claim through it in five stages. The method-level claim does not survive: (i) a plain linear bottleneck does as well or better; (ii) tuned Lasso beats the bottleneck on synthetic CauseMe-style benchmarks, and on Lorenz-96 (the only real benchmark with unambiguous ground truth) classical PCMCI and Granger lead a tight cluster in which the bottleneck trails; (iii) the headline intervention advantage is roughly 60% a sample-size confound, and the residual disappears under standard do(X=c) interventions, surviving only under a non-standard random-forcing scheme; (iv) even that residual reproduces, with a larger effect, in classical bivariate Granger -- the effect is method-agnostic. What survives is a narrow characterization result; the benchmark is the lasting artifact, and each stage above is one of its control arms.

With the rapid growth in model size, fine-tuning the large pre-trained language model has become increasingly difficult due to its extensive memory usage. Previous works usually focus on reducing the number of trainable parameters in the network. While the model parameters do contribute to memory usage, the primary memory bottleneck during training arises from storing feature maps, also known as activations, as they are crucial for gradient calculation. Notably, neural networks are usually trained using stochastic gradient descent. We argue that in stochastic optimization, models can handle noisy gradients as long as the gradient estimator is unbiased with reasonable variance. Following this motivation, we propose a new family of unbiased estimators called WTA-CRS, for matrix production with reduced variance, which only requires storing the sub-sampled activations for calculating the gradient. Our work provides both theoretical and experimental evidence that, in the context of tuning transformers, our proposed estimators exhibit lower variance compared to existing ones. By replacing the linear operation with our approximated one in transformers, we can achieve up to 2.7times peak memory reduction with almost no accuracy drop and enables up to 6.4times larger batch size. Under the same hardware, WTA-CRS enables better down-streaming task performance by applying larger models and/or faster training speed with larger batch sizes.

Test-time scaling for complex reasoning tasks shows that leveraging inference-time compute, by methods such as independently sampling and aggregating multiple solutions, results in significantly better task outcomes. However, a critical bottleneck is verification: sampling is only effective if correct solutions can be reliably identified among candidates. While existing approaches typically evaluate candidates independently via scalar scoring, we demonstrate that models are substantially stronger at pairwise self-verification. Leveraging this insight, we introduce V_1, a framework that unifies generation and verification through efficient pairwise ranking. V_1 comprises two components: V_1-Infer, an uncertainty-guided algorithm using a tournament-based ranking that dynamically allocates self-verification compute to candidate pairs whose relative correctness is most uncertain; and V_1-PairRL, an RL framework that jointly trains a single model as both generator and pairwise self-verifier, ensuring the verifier adapts to the generator's evolving distribution. On code generation (LiveCodeBench, CodeContests, SWE-Bench) and math reasoning (AIME, HMMT) benchmarks, V_1-Infer improves Pass@1 by up to 10% over pointwise verification and outperforms recent test-time scaling methods while being significantly more efficient. Furthermore, V_1-PairRL achieves 7--9% test-time scaling gains over standard RL and pointwise joint training, and improves base Pass@1 by up to 8.7% over standard RL in a code-generation setting.

The efficiency of large vision-language models (LVLMs) is constrained by the computational bottleneck of the attention mechanism during the prefill phase and the memory bottleneck of fetching the key-value (KV) cache in the decoding phase, particularly in scenarios involving high-resolution images or videos. Visual content often exhibits substantial redundancy, resulting in highly sparse attention maps within LVLMs. This sparsity can be leveraged to accelerate attention computation or compress the KV cache through various approaches. However, most studies focus on addressing only one of these bottlenecks and do not adequately support dynamic adjustment of sparsity concerning distinct layers or tasks. In this paper, we present ZipVL, an efficient inference framework designed for LVLMs that resolves both computation and memory bottlenecks through a dynamic ratio allocation strategy of important tokens. This ratio is adaptively determined based on the layer-specific distribution of attention scores, rather than fixed hyper-parameters, thereby improving efficiency for less complex tasks while maintaining high performance for more challenging ones. Then we select important tokens based on their normalized attention scores and perform attention mechanism solely on those important tokens to accelerate the prefill phase. To mitigate the memory bottleneck in the decoding phase, we employ mixed-precision quantization to the KV cache, where high-bit quantization is used for caches of important tokens, while low-bit quantization is applied to those of less importance. Our experiments demonstrate that ZipVL can accelerate the prefill phase by 2.6times and reduce GPU memory usage by 50.0%, with a minimal accuracy reduction of only 0.2% on Video-MME benchmark over LongVA-7B model, effectively enhancing the generation efficiency of LVLMs.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

Large Transformer networks are increasingly used in settings where low inference latency can improve the end-user experience and enable new applications. However, autoregressive inference is resource intensive and requires parallelism for efficiency. Parallelism introduces collective communication that is both expensive and represents a phase when hardware resources are underutilized. Towards mitigating this, Kraken is an evolution of the standard Transformer architecture that is designed to complement existing tensor parallelism schemes for efficient inference on multi-device systems. By introducing a fixed degree of intra-layer model parallelism, the architecture allows collective operations to be overlapped with compute, decreasing latency and increasing hardware utilization. When trained on OpenWebText, Kraken models reach a similar perplexity as standard Transformers while also preserving their language modeling capabilities when evaluated on the SuperGLUE benchmark. Importantly, when tested on multi-GPU systems using TensorRT-LLM engines, Kraken speeds up Time To First Token by a mean of 35.6% across a range of model sizes, context lengths, and degrees of tensor parallelism.

Foundation models have achieved remarkable success across video, image, and language domains. By scaling up the number of parameters and training datasets, these models acquire generalizable world knowledge and often surpass task-specific approaches. However, such progress has yet to extend to the domain of physics simulation. A primary bottleneck is data scarcity: while millions of images, videos, and textual resources are readily available on the internet, the largest physics simulation datasets contain only tens of thousands of samples. This data limitation hinders the use of large models, as overfitting becomes a major concern. As a result, physics applications typically rely on small models, which struggle with long-range prediction due to limited context understanding. Additionally, unlike images, videos, or text-which typically exhibit fixed granularity-physics datasets often vary drastically in scale, amplifying the challenges of scaling up multitask training. We introduce PhysiX, the first large-scale foundation model for physics simulation. PhysiX is a 4.5B parameter autoregressive generative model. It uses a discrete tokenizer to encode physical processes at different scales into a sequence of discrete tokens, and employs an autoregressive next-token prediction objective to model such processes in the token space. To mitigate the rounding error in the discretization process, PhysiX incorporates a specialized refinement module. Through extensive experiments, we show that PhysiX effectively addresses the data bottleneck, outperforming task-specific baselines under comparable settings as well as the previous absolute state-of-the-art approaches on The Well benchmark. Our results indicate that knowledge learned from natural videos can be successfully transferred to physics simulation, and that joint training across diverse simulation tasks enables synergistic learning.

We classify and re-examine some of the current approaches to improve the performance-computes trade-off of language models, including (1) non-causal models (such as masked language models), (2) extension of batch length with efficient attention, (3) recurrence, (4) conditional computation and (5) retrieval. We identify some limitations (1) - (4) suffer from. For example, (1) currently struggles with open-ended text generation with the output loosely constrained by the input as well as performing general textual tasks like GPT-2/3 due to its need for a specific fine-tuning dataset. (2) and (3) do not improve the prediction of the first sim 10^3 tokens. Scaling up a model size (e.g. efficiently with (4)) still results in poor performance scaling for some tasks. We argue (5) would resolve many of these limitations, and it can (a) reduce the amount of supervision and (b) efficiently extend the context over the entire training dataset and the entire past of the current sample. We speculate how to modify MARGE to perform unsupervised causal modeling that achieves (b) with the retriever jointly trained.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically trained via next-word prediction (NWP), which provides strong surface-level fluency but often lacks support for robust reasoning. We propose BOttlenecked next Word exploration (BOW), a novel RL framework that rethinks NWP by introducing a reasoning bottleneck where a policy model first generates a reasoning path rather than predicting the next token directly, after which a frozen judge model predicts the next token distribution based solely on this reasoning path. We train the policy model using GRPO with rewards that quantify how effectively the reasoning path facilitates next-word recovery. Compared with other continual pretraining baselines, we show that BOW improves both the general and next-word reasoning capabilities of the base model, evaluated on various benchmarks. Our findings show that BOW can serve as an effective and scalable alternative to vanilla NWP.

The Information Bottleneck (IB) principle offers an information-theoretic framework for analyzing the training process of deep neural networks (DNNs). Its essence lies in tracking the dynamics of two mutual information (MI) values: one between the hidden layer and the class label, and the other between the hidden layer and the DNN input. According to the hypothesis put forth by Shwartz-Ziv and Tishby (2017), the training process consists of two distinct phases: fitting and compression. The latter phase is believed to account for the good generalization performance exhibited by DNNs. Due to the challenging nature of estimating MI between high-dimensional random vectors, this hypothesis has only been verified for toy NNs or specific types of NNs, such as quantized NNs and dropout NNs. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive framework for conducting IB analysis of general NNs. Our approach leverages the stochastic NN method proposed by Goldfeld et al. (2019) and incorporates a compression step to overcome the obstacles associated with high dimensionality. In other words, we estimate the MI between the compressed representations of high-dimensional random vectors. The proposed method is supported by both theoretical and practical justifications. Notably, we demonstrate the accuracy of our estimator through synthetic experiments featuring predefined MI values. Finally, we perform IB analysis on a close-to-real-scale convolutional DNN, which reveals new features of the MI dynamics.

Augmenting a language model (LM) with k-nearest neighbors (kNN) retrieval on its training data alone can decrease its perplexity, though the underlying reasons for this remains elusive. In this work, we first rule out one previously posited possibility -- the "softmax bottleneck." We further identify the MLP hurdle phenomenon, where the final MLP layer in LMs may impede LM optimization early on. We explore memorization and generalization in language models with two new datasets, where advanced model like GPT-3.5-turbo find generalizing to irrelevant information in the training data challenging. However, incorporating kNN retrieval to vanilla GPT-2 117M can consistently improve performance in this setting.

Monitoring complex industrial assets relies on engineer-authored symbolic rules that trigger based on sensor conditions and prompt technicians to perform corrective actions. The bottleneck is not detection but response: translating rules into maintenance steps requires asset-specific knowledge gained through years of practice. We investigate whether LLMs can serve as decision support for this rule-to-action step and introduce , a benchmark of 6{,}690 expert-validated multiple-choice questions from 118 rule-action pairs across 16 asset types. We contribute (i) a symbolic-to-MCQA pipeline normalizing rules to Disjunctive Normal Form with embedding-based distractor sampling, (ii) five variants probing distinct failure modes (Pro, Pert, Verbose, Aug, Rationale), and (iii) a benchmark of 29 LLMs and 4 embedding baselines. A human evaluation (9 practitioners, mean 45.0\%) confirms requires specialist knowledge beyond operational experience. Three findings stand out. The frontier has closed: the top three LLMs lie within one Macro point, with Bradley-Terry Elo placing claude-opus-4-6 30 points above the next model. Yet \,Pro exposes brittleness, with every model losing 13--60\% relative accuracy under distractor expansion. \,Aug exposes pattern-matching: under condition inversion, frontier models still select the original answer 49--63\% of the time. The deployment bottleneck is not capability but calibration: frontier models handle template-style fault detection but break under structural perturbation.