Daily Papers

Speech foundation models, such as HuBERT and its variants, are pre-trained on large amounts of unlabeled speech data and then used for a range of downstream tasks. These models use a masked prediction objective, where the model learns to predict information about masked input segments from the unmasked context. The choice of prediction targets in this framework impacts their performance on downstream tasks. For instance, models pre-trained with targets that capture prosody learn representations suited for speaker-related tasks, while those pre-trained with targets that capture phonetics learn representations suited for content-related tasks. Moreover, prediction targets can differ in the level of detail they capture. Models pre-trained with targets that encode fine-grained acoustic features perform better on tasks like denoising, while those pre-trained with targets focused on higher-level abstractions are more effective for content-related tasks. Despite the importance of prediction targets, the design choices that affect them have not been thoroughly studied. This work explores the design choices and their impact on downstream task performance. Our results indicate that the commonly used design choices for HuBERT can be suboptimal. We propose approaches to create more informative prediction targets and demonstrate their effectiveness through improvements across various downstream tasks.

Predicting the motion of multiple traffic participants has always been one of the most challenging tasks in autonomous driving. The recently proposed occupancy flow field prediction method has shown to be a more effective and scalable representation compared to general trajectory prediction methods. However, in complex multi-agent traffic scenarios, it remains difficult to model the interactions among various factors and the dependencies among prediction outputs at different time steps. In view of this, we propose a transformer-based hierarchical feature guided network (HGNET), which can efficiently extract features of agents and map information from visual and vectorized inputs, modeling multimodal interaction relationships. Second, we design the Feature-Guided Attention (FGAT) module to leverage the potential guiding effects between different prediction targets, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, to enhance the temporal consistency and causal relationships of the predictions, we propose a Time Series Memory framework to learn the conditional distribution models of the prediction outputs at future time steps from multivariate time series. The results demonstrate that our model exhibits competitive performance, which ranks 3rd in the 2024 Waymo Occupancy and Flow Prediction Challenge.

Data organized in tabular format is ubiquitous in real-world applications, and users often craft tables with biased feature definitions and flexibly set prediction targets of their interests. Thus, a rapid development of a robust, effective, dataset-versatile, user-friendly tabular prediction approach is highly desired. While Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and existing deep neural networks (DNNs) have been extensively utilized by professional users, they present several challenges for casual users, particularly: (i) the dilemma of model selection due to their different dataset preferences, and (ii) the need for heavy hyperparameter searching, failing which their performances are deemed inadequate. In this paper, we delve into this question: Can we develop a deep learning model that serves as a "sure bet" solution for a wide range of tabular prediction tasks, while also being user-friendly for casual users? We delve into three key drawbacks of deep tabular models, encompassing: (P1) lack of rotational variance property, (P2) large data demand, and (P3) over-smooth solution. We propose ExcelFormer, addressing these challenges through a semi-permeable attention module that effectively constrains the influence of less informative features to break the DNNs' rotational invariance property (for P1), data augmentation approaches tailored for tabular data (for P2), and attentive feedforward network to boost the model fitting capability (for P3). These designs collectively make ExcelFormer a "sure bet" solution for diverse tabular datasets. Extensive and stratified experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms previous approaches across diverse tabular data prediction tasks, and this framework can be friendly to casual users, offering ease of use without the heavy hyperparameter tuning.

Latent diffusion models for medical image super-resolution universally inherit variational autoencoders designed for natural photographs. We show that this default choice, not the diffusion architecture, is the dominant constraint on reconstruction quality. In a controlled experiment holding all other pipeline components fixed, replacing the generic Stable Diffusion VAE with MedVAE, a domain-specific autoencoder pretrained on more than 1.6 million medical images, yields +2.91 to +3.29 dB PSNR improvement across knee MRI, brain MRI, and chest X-ray (n = 1,820; Cohen's d = 1.37 to 1.86, all p < 10^{-20}, Wilcoxon signed-rank). Wavelet decomposition localises the advantage to the finest spatial frequency bands encoding anatomically relevant fine structure. Ablations across inference schedules, prediction targets, and generative architectures confirm the gap is stable within plus or minus 0.15 dB, while hallucination rates remain comparable between methods (Cohen's h < 0.02 across all datasets), establishing that reconstruction fidelity and generative hallucination are governed by independent pipeline components. These results provide a practical screening criterion: autoencoder reconstruction quality, measurable without diffusion training, predicts downstream SR performance (R^2 = 0.67), suggesting that domain-specific VAE selection should precede diffusion architecture search. Code and trained model weights are publicly available at https://github.com/sebasmos/latent-sr.

Training generative adversarial networks (GANs) with limited data is challenging because the discriminator is prone to overfitting. Previously proposed differentiable augmentation demonstrates improved data efficiency of training GANs. However, the augmentation implicitly introduces undesired invariance to augmentation for the discriminator since it ignores the change of semantics in the label space caused by data transformation, which may limit the representation learning ability of the discriminator and ultimately affect the generative modeling performance of the generator. To mitigate the negative impact of invariance while inheriting the benefits of data augmentation, we propose a novel augmentation-aware self-supervised discriminator that predicts the augmentation parameter of the augmented data. Particularly, the prediction targets of real data and generated data are required to be distinguished since they are different during training. We further encourage the generator to adversarially learn from the self-supervised discriminator by generating augmentation-predictable real and not fake data. This formulation connects the learning objective of the generator and the arithmetic - harmonic mean divergence under certain assumptions. We compare our method with state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods using the class-conditional BigGAN and unconditional StyleGAN2 architectures on data-limited CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, FFHQ, LSUN-Cat, and five low-shot datasets. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements of our method over SOTA methods in training data-efficient GANs.

Transformers have achieved great success in pluralistic image inpainting recently. However, we find existing transformer based solutions regard each pixel as a token, thus suffer from information loss issue from two aspects: 1) They downsample the input image into much lower resolutions for efficiency consideration, incurring information loss and extra misalignment for the boundaries of masked regions. 2) They quantize 256^3 RGB pixels to a small number (such as 512) of quantized pixels. The indices of quantized pixels are used as tokens for the inputs and prediction targets of transformer. Although an extra CNN network is used to upsample and refine the low-resolution results, it is difficult to retrieve the lost information back.To keep input information as much as possible, we propose a new transformer based framework "PUT". Specifically, to avoid input downsampling while maintaining the computation efficiency, we design a patch-based auto-encoder P-VQVAE, where the encoder converts the masked image into non-overlapped patch tokens and the decoder recovers the masked regions from inpainted tokens while keeping the unmasked regions unchanged. To eliminate the information loss caused by quantization, an Un-Quantized Transformer (UQ-Transformer) is applied, which directly takes the features from P-VQVAE encoder as input without quantization and regards the quantized tokens only as prediction targets. Extensive experiments show that PUT greatly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on image fidelity, especially for large masked regions and complex large-scale datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/liuqk3/PUT

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require significant effort and, in some cases, be impossible due to external hardware constraints. To improve predictability across a broader set of hyperparameters and enable simpler tuning at scale, we propose learning a Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (CPL): a mapping from the full training configuration to training performance. Because no simple functional form can express this mapping, we parameterize it with a large language model (LLM), and fit it with diverse open-source pretraining logs across multiple sources, yielding a Neural Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (NCPL). NCPL accurately predicts how training configurations influence the final pretraining loss, achieving 20-40% lower prediction error than the configuration-agnostic Chinchilla law and generalizing to runs using up to 10 x more compute than any run in the training set. It further supports joint tuning of multiple hyperparameters with performance comparable to hyperparameter scaling law baselines. Finally, NCPL naturally and effectively extends to richer prediction targets such as loss-curve prediction.

Predicting human mobility is inherently challenging due to complex long-range dependencies and multi-scale periodic behaviors. To address this, we introduce RHYTHM (Reasoning with Hierarchical Temporal Tokenization for Human Mobility), a unified framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) as general-purpose spatio-temporal predictors and trajectory reasoners. Methodologically, RHYTHM employs temporal tokenization to partition each trajectory into daily segments and encode them as discrete tokens with hierarchical attention that captures both daily and weekly dependencies, thereby significantly reducing the sequence length while preserving cyclical information. Additionally, we enrich token representations by adding pre-computed prompt embeddings for trajectory segments and prediction targets via a frozen LLM, and feeding these combined embeddings back into the LLM backbone to capture complex interdependencies. Computationally, RHYTHM freezes the pretrained LLM's backbone to reduce attention complexity and memory cost. We evaluate our model against state-of-the-art methods using three real-world datasets. Notably, RHYTHM achieves a 2.4% improvement in overall accuracy, a 5.0% increase on weekends, and a 24.6% reduction in training time. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/he-h/rhythm.

Spurious bias, a tendency to exploit spurious correlations between superficial input attributes and prediction targets, has revealed a severe robustness pitfall in classical machine learning problems. Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), which leverage pretrained vision and language models, have recently demonstrated strong capability in joint vision-language understanding. However, both the presence and severity of spurious biases in MLLMs remain poorly understood. In this work, we address this gap by analyzing the spurious biases in the multimodal setting and uncovering the specific inference-time data patterns that can manifest this problem. To support this analysis, we introduce MM-SpuBench, a comprehensive, human-verified benchmark dataset consisting of image-class pairs annotated with core and spurious attributes, grounded in our taxonomy of nine distinct types of spurious correlations. The benchmark is constructed using human-interpretable attribute information to capture a wide range of spurious patterns reflective of real-world knowledge. Leveraging this benchmark, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary MLLMs with both standard accuracy and the proposed Conditional Generation Likelihood Advantage (CGLA). Our findings highlight the persistence of reliance on spurious correlations and the difficulty of mitigation on our benchmark. We hope this work can inspire new technical strides to mitigate these biases. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/mmbench/MM-SpuBench.

Machine learning especially deep neural networks have achieved great success but many of them often rely on a number of labeled samples for supervision. As sufficient labeled training data are not always ready due to e.g., continuously emerging prediction targets and costly sample annotation in real world applications, machine learning with sample shortage is now being widely investigated. Among all these studies, many prefer to utilize auxiliary information including those in the form of Knowledge Graph (KG) to reduce the reliance on labeled samples. In this survey, we have comprehensively reviewed over 90 papers about KG-aware research for two major sample shortage settings -- zero-shot learning (ZSL) where some classes to be predicted have no labeled samples, and few-shot learning (FSL) where some classes to be predicted have only a small number of labeled samples that are available. We first introduce KGs used in ZSL and FSL as well as their construction methods, and then systematically categorize and summarize KG-aware ZSL and FSL methods, dividing them into different paradigms such as the mapping-based, the data augmentation, the propagation-based and the optimization-based. We next present different applications, including not only KG augmented prediction tasks such as image classification, question answering, text classification and knowledge extraction, but also KG completion tasks, and some typical evaluation resources for each task. We eventually discuss some challenges and open problems from different perspectives.

Recently, methods leveraging diffusion model priors to assist monocular geometric estimation (e.g., depth and normal) have gained significant attention due to their strong generalization ability. However, most existing works focus on estimating geometric properties within the camera coordinate system of individual video frames, neglecting the inherent ability of diffusion models to determine inter-frame correspondence. In this work, we demonstrate that, through appropriate design and fine-tuning, the intrinsic consistency of video generation models can be effectively harnessed for consistent geometric estimation. Specifically, we 1) select geometric attributes in the global coordinate system that share the same correspondence with video frames as the prediction targets, 2) introduce a novel and efficient conditioning method by reusing positional encodings, and 3) enhance performance through joint training on multiple geometric attributes that share the same correspondence. Our results achieve superior performance in predicting global geometric attributes in videos and can be directly applied to reconstruction tasks. Even when trained solely on static video data, our approach exhibits the potential to generalize to dynamic video scenes.

Recent studies have shown that CLIP has achieved remarkable success in performing zero-shot inference while its fine-tuning performance is not satisfactory. In this paper, we identify that fine-tuning performance is significantly impacted by hyper-parameter choices. We examine various key hyper-parameters and empirically evaluate their impact in fine-tuning CLIP for classification tasks through a comprehensive study. We find that the fine-tuning performance of CLIP is substantially underestimated. Equipped with hyper-parameter refinement, we demonstrate CLIP itself is better or at least competitive in fine-tuning compared with large-scale supervised pre-training approaches or latest works that use CLIP as prediction targets in Masked Image Modeling. Specifically, CLIP ViT-Base/16 and CLIP ViT-Large/14 can achieve 85.7%,88.0% finetuning Top-1 accuracy on the ImageNet-1K dataset . These observations challenge the conventional conclusion that CLIP is not suitable for fine-tuning, and motivate us to rethink recently proposed improvements based on CLIP. We will release our code publicly at https://github.com/LightDXY/FT-CLIP.

The effects of ligand binding on protein structures and their in vivo functions carry numerous implications for modern biomedical research and biotechnology development efforts such as drug discovery. Although several deep learning (DL) methods and benchmarks designed for protein-ligand docking have recently been introduced, to date no prior works have systematically studied the behavior of the latest docking and structure prediction methods within the broadly applicable context of (1) using predicted (apo) protein structures for docking (e.g., for applicability to new proteins); (2) binding multiple (cofactor) ligands concurrently to a given target protein (e.g., for enzyme design); and (3) having no prior knowledge of binding pockets (e.g., for generalization to unknown pockets). To enable a deeper understanding of docking methods' real-world utility, we introduce PoseBench, the first comprehensive benchmark for broadly applicable protein-ligand docking. PoseBench enables researchers to rigorously and systematically evaluate DL methods for apo-to-holo protein-ligand docking and protein-ligand structure prediction using both primary ligand and multi-ligand benchmark datasets, the latter of which we introduce for the first time to the DL community. Empirically, using PoseBench, we find that (1) DL co-folding methods generally outperform comparable conventional and DL docking baselines, yet popular methods such as AlphaFold 3 are still challenged by prediction targets with novel protein sequences; (2) certain DL co-folding methods are highly sensitive to their input multiple sequence alignments, while others are not; and (3) DL methods struggle to strike a balance between structural accuracy and chemical specificity when predicting novel or multi-ligand protein targets. Code, data, tutorials, and benchmark results are available at https://github.com/BioinfoMachineLearning/PoseBench.

The development of autoregressive modeling (AM) in computer vision lags behind natural language processing (NLP) in self-supervised pre-training. This is mainly caused by the challenge that images are not sequential signals and lack a natural order when applying autoregressive modeling. In this study, inspired by human beings' way of grasping an image, i.e., focusing on the main object first, we present a semantic-aware autoregressive image modeling (SemAIM) method to tackle this challenge. The key insight of SemAIM is to autoregressive model images from the semantic patches to the less semantic patches. To this end, we first calculate a semantic-aware permutation of patches according to their feature similarities and then perform the autoregression procedure based on the permutation. In addition, considering that the raw pixels of patches are low-level signals and are not ideal prediction targets for learning high-level semantic representation, we also explore utilizing the patch features as the prediction targets. Extensive experiments are conducted on a broad range of downstream tasks, including image classification, object detection, and instance/semantic segmentation, to evaluate the performance of SemAIM. The results demonstrate SemAIM achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with other self-supervised methods. Specifically, with ViT-B, SemAIM achieves 84.1% top-1 accuracy for fine-tuning on ImageNet, 51.3% AP and 45.4% AP for object detection and instance segmentation on COCO, which outperforms the vanilla MAE by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 0.5%, respectively.

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building a probabilistic graphical model Psi of the data, in the form of a random-access autoregressive sequence model. Psi supports a complete set of learned conditional distributions describing the dependence of any variables in the data on any other set of variables. In step 2, Structure extraction, we show how to extract underlying low-dimensional properties in the data, corresponding to a diverse set of meaningful "intermediate structures", in a zero-shot fashion via causal inference on Psi. Step 3, Integration, completes the cycle by converting these structures into new token types that are then continually mixed back into the training diet as conditioning signals and prediction targets. Each such cycle augments the capabilities of Psi, both allowing it to model the underlying data better, and creating new control handles -- akin to an LLM-like universal prompting language. We train an instance of Psi on 1.4 trillion tokens of internet video data; we use it to perform a variety of useful video prediction and understanding inferences; we extract state-of-the-art optical flow, self-supervised depth and object segmentation; and we use these structures to support a full cycle of predictive improvements.

The ability to predict future outcomes given control actions is fundamental for physical reasoning. However, such predictive models, often called world models, have proven challenging to learn and are typically developed for task-specific solutions with online policy learning. We argue that the true potential of world models lies in their ability to reason and plan across diverse problems using only passive data. Concretely, we require world models to have the following three properties: 1) be trainable on offline, pre-collected trajectories, 2) support test-time behavior optimization, and 3) facilitate task-agnostic reasoning. To realize this, we present DINO World Model (DINO-WM), a new method to model visual dynamics without reconstructing the visual world. DINO-WM leverages spatial patch features pre-trained with DINOv2, enabling it to learn from offline behavioral trajectories by predicting future patch features. This design allows DINO-WM to achieve observational goals through action sequence optimization, facilitating task-agnostic behavior planning by treating desired goal patch features as prediction targets. We evaluate DINO-WM across various domains, including maze navigation, tabletop pushing, and particle manipulation. Our experiments demonstrate that DINO-WM can generate zero-shot behavioral solutions at test time without relying on expert demonstrations, reward modeling, or pre-learned inverse models. Notably, DINO-WM exhibits strong generalization capabilities compared to prior state-of-the-art work, adapting to diverse task families such as arbitrarily configured mazes, push manipulation with varied object shapes, and multi-particle scenarios.

Diffusion models have emerged as the de facto choice for generating visual signals. However, training a single model to predict noise across various levels poses significant challenges, necessitating numerous iterations and incurring significant computational costs. Various approaches, such as loss weighting strategy design and architectural refinements, have been introduced to expedite convergence. In this study, we propose a novel approach to design the noise schedule for enhancing the training of diffusion models. Our key insight is that the importance sampling of the logarithm of the Signal-to-Noise ratio (logSNR), theoretically equivalent to a modified noise schedule, is particularly beneficial for training efficiency when increasing the sample frequency around log SNR=0. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of our noise schedule over the standard cosine schedule. Furthermore, we highlight the advantages of our noise schedule design on the ImageNet benchmark, showing that the designed schedule consistently benefits different prediction targets.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in user-facing applications, building trust and maintaining safety by accurately quantifying a model's confidence in its prediction becomes even more important. However, finding effective ways to calibrate LLMs - especially when the only interface to the models is their generated text - remains a challenge. We propose APRICOT (auxiliary prediction of confidence targets): A method to set confidence targets and train an additional model that predicts an LLM's confidence based on its textual input and output alone. This approach has several advantages: It is conceptually simple, does not require access to the target model beyond its output, does not interfere with the language generation, and has a multitude of potential usages, for instance by verbalizing the predicted confidence or adjusting the given answer based on the confidence. We show how our approach performs competitively in terms of calibration error for white-box and black-box LLMs on closed-book question-answering to detect incorrect LLM answers.

Generalization beyond training data remains a central challenge in machine learning for biology. A common way to enhance generalization is self-supervised pre-training on large datasets. However, aiming to perform well on all possible proteins can limit a model's capacity to excel on any specific one, whereas experimentalists typically need accurate predictions for individual proteins they study, often not covered in training data. To address this limitation, we propose a method that enables self-supervised customization of protein language models to one target protein at a time, on the fly, and without assuming any additional data. We show that our Protein Test-Time Training (ProteinTTT) method consistently enhances generalization across different models, their sizes, and datasets. ProteinTTT improves structure prediction for challenging targets, achieves new state-of-the-art results on protein fitness prediction, and enhances function prediction on two tasks. Through two challenging case studies, we also show that customization via ProteinTTT achieves more accurate antibody-antigen loop modeling and enhances 19% of structures in the Big Fantastic Virus Database, delivering improved predictions where general-purpose AlphaFold2 and ESMFold struggle.

Histopathological analysis is a cornerstone of cancer diagnosis, with Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) staining routinely acquired for every patient to visualize cell morphology and tissue architecture. On the other hand, multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) enables more precise cell type identification via proteomic markers, but has yet to achieve widespread clinical adoption due to cost and logistical constraints. To bridge this gap, we introduce MIPHEI (Multiplex Immunofluorescence Prediction from H&E), a U-Net-inspired architecture that integrates state-of-the-art ViT foundation models as encoders to predict mIF signals from H&E images. MIPHEI targets a comprehensive panel of markers spanning nuclear content, immune lineages (T cells, B cells, myeloid), epithelium, stroma, vasculature, and proliferation. We train our model using the publicly available ORION dataset of restained H&E and mIF images from colorectal cancer tissue, and validate it on two independent datasets. MIPHEI achieves accurate cell-type classification from H&E alone, with F1 scores of 0.88 for Pan-CK, 0.57 for CD3e, 0.56 for SMA, 0.36 for CD68, and 0.30 for CD20, substantially outperforming both a state-of-the-art baseline and a random classifier for most markers. Our results indicate that our model effectively captures the complex relationships between nuclear morphologies in their tissue context, as visible in H&E images and molecular markers defining specific cell types. MIPHEI offers a promising step toward enabling cell-type-aware analysis of large-scale H&E datasets, in view of uncovering relationships between spatial cellular organization and patient outcomes.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in perception and interpretation tasks, but their capabilities in predictive reasoning remain under-explored. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark that assesses the predictive reasoning capabilities of MLLMs across diverse scenarios. Our benchmark targets three important domains: abstract pattern reasoning, human activity prediction, and physical interaction prediction. We further develop three evaluation methods powered by large language model to robustly quantify a model's performance in predicting and reasoning the future based on multi-visual context. Empirical experiments confirm the soundness of the proposed benchmark and evaluation methods via rigorous testing and reveal pros and cons of current popular MLLMs in the task of predictive reasoning. Lastly, our proposed benchmark provides a standardized evaluation framework for MLLMs and can facilitate the development of more advanced models that can reason and predict over complex long sequence of multimodal input.

This paper targets the perceptual task of separating the different interacting voices, i.e., monophonic melodic streams, in a polyphonic musical piece. We target symbolic music, where notes are explicitly encoded, and model this task as a Multi-Trajectory Tracking (MTT) problem from discrete observations, i.e., notes in a pitch-time space. Our approach builds a graph from a musical piece, by creating one node for every note, and separates the melodic trajectories by predicting a link between two notes if they are consecutive in the same voice/stream. This kind of local, greedy prediction is made possible by node embeddings created by a heterogeneous graph neural network that can capture inter- and intra-trajectory information. Furthermore, we propose a new regularization loss that encourages the output to respect the MTT premise of at most one incoming and one outgoing link for every node, favouring monophonic (voice) trajectories; this loss function might also be useful in other general MTT scenarios. Our approach does not use domain-specific heuristics, is scalable to longer sequences and a higher number of voices, and can handle complex cases such as voice inversions and overlaps. We reach new state-of-the-art results for the voice separation task in classical music of different styles.

Efficient ObjectGoal navigation (ObjectNav) in novel environments requires an understanding of the spatial and semantic regularities in environment layouts. In this work, we present a straightforward method for learning these regularities by predicting the locations of unobserved objects from incomplete semantic maps. Our method differs from previous prediction-based navigation methods, such as frontier potential prediction or egocentric map completion, by directly predicting unseen targets while leveraging the global context from all previously explored areas. Our prediction model is lightweight and can be trained in a supervised manner using a relatively small amount of passively collected data. Once trained, the model can be incorporated into a modular pipeline for ObjectNav without the need for any reinforcement learning. We validate the effectiveness of our method on the HM3D and MP3D ObjectNav datasets. We find that it achieves the state-of-the-art on both datasets, despite not using any additional data for training.

Affordance prediction serves as a critical bridge between perception and action in embodied AI. However, existing research is confined to pinhole camera models, which suffer from narrow Fields of View (FoV) and fragmented observations, often missing critical holistic environmental context. In this paper, we present the first exploration into Panoramic Affordance Prediction, utilizing 360-degree imagery to capture global spatial relationships and holistic scene understanding. To facilitate this novel task, we first introduce PAP-12K, a large-scale benchmark dataset containing over 1,000 ultra-high-resolution (12k, 11904 x 5952) panoramic images with over 12k carefully annotated QA pairs and affordance masks. Furthermore, we propose PAP, a training-free, coarse-to-fine pipeline inspired by the human foveal visual system to tackle the ultra-high resolution and severe distortion inherent in panoramic images. PAP employs recursive visual routing via grid prompting to progressively locate targets, applies an adaptive gaze mechanism to rectify local geometric distortions, and utilizes a cascaded grounding pipeline to extract precise instance-level masks. Experimental results on PAP-12K reveal that existing affordance prediction methods designed for standard perspective images suffer severe performance degradation and fail due to the unique challenges of panoramic vision. In contrast, PAP framework effectively overcomes these obstacles, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art baselines and highlighting the immense potential of panoramic perception for robust embodied intelligence.

Foundation models applied to bio-molecular space hold promise to accelerate drug discovery. Molecular representation is key to building such models. Previous works have typically focused on a single representation or view of the molecules. Here, we develop a multi-view foundation model approach, that integrates molecular views of graph, image and text. Single-view foundation models are each pre-trained on a dataset of up to 200M molecules and then aggregated into combined representations. Our multi-view model is validated on a diverse set of 18 tasks, encompassing ligand-protein binding, molecular solubility, metabolism and toxicity. We show that the multi-view models perform robustly and are able to balance the strengths and weaknesses of specific views. We then apply this model to screen compounds against a large (>100 targets) set of G Protein-Coupled receptors (GPCRs). From this library of targets, we identify 33 that are related to Alzheimer's disease. On this subset, we employ our model to identify strong binders, which are validated through structure-based modeling and identification of key binding motifs.

Financial markets have a vital role in the development of modern society. They allow the deployment of economic resources. Changes in stock prices reflect changes in the market. In this study, we focus on predicting stock prices by deep learning model. This is a challenge task, because there is much noise and uncertainty in information that is related to stock prices. So this work uses sparse autoencoders with one-dimension (1-D) residual convolutional networks which is a deep learning model, to de-noise the data. Long-short term memory (LSTM) is then used to predict the stock price. The prices, indices and macroeconomic variables in past are the features used to predict the next day's price. Experiment results show that 1-D residual convolutional networks can de-noise data and extract deep features better than a model that combines wavelet transforms (WT) and stacked autoencoders (SAEs). In addition, we compare the performances of model with two different forecast targets of stock price: absolute stock price and price rate of change. The results show that predicting stock price through price rate of change is better than predicting absolute prices directly.

Activity cliff prediction is a critical task in drug discovery and material design. Existing computational methods are limited to handling single binding targets, which restricts the applicability of these prediction models. In this paper, we present the Multi-Grained Target Perception network (MTPNet) to incorporate the prior knowledge of interactions between the molecules and their target proteins. Specifically, MTPNet is a unified framework for activity cliff prediction, which consists of two components: Macro-level Target Semantic (MTS) guidance and Micro-level Pocket Semantic (MPS) guidance. By this way, MTPNet dynamically optimizes molecular representations through multi-grained protein semantic conditions. To our knowledge, it is the first time to employ the receptor proteins as guiding information to effectively capture critical interaction details. Extensive experiments on 30 representative activity cliff datasets demonstrate that MTPNet significantly outperforms previous approaches, achieving an average RMSE improvement of 18.95% on top of several mainstream GNN architectures. Overall, MTPNet internalizes interaction patterns through conditional deep learning to achieve unified predictions of activity cliffs, helping to accelerate compound optimization and design. Codes are available at: https://github.com/ZishanShu/MTPNet.

We present PREMISE (PREdict with Matching ScorEs), a new architecture for the matching-based learning in the multimodal fields for the multimodal review helpfulness (MRHP) task. Distinct to previous fusion-based methods which obtains multimodal representations via cross-modal attention for downstream tasks, PREMISE computes the multi-scale and multi-field representations, filters duplicated semantics, and then obtained a set of matching scores as feature vectors for the downstream recommendation task. This new architecture significantly boosts the performance for such multimodal tasks whose context matching content are highly correlated to the targets of that task, compared to the state-of-the-art fusion-based methods. Experimental results on two publicly available datasets show that PREMISE achieves promising performance with less computational cost.

Accurate prediction of Drug-Target Affinity (DTA) is of vital importance in early-stage drug discovery, facilitating the identification of drugs that can effectively interact with specific targets and regulate their activities. While wet experiments remain the most reliable method, they are time-consuming and resource-intensive, resulting in limited data availability that poses challenges for deep learning approaches. Existing methods have primarily focused on developing techniques based on the available DTA data, without adequately addressing the data scarcity issue. To overcome this challenge, we present the SSM-DTA framework, which incorporates three simple yet highly effective strategies: (1) A multi-task training approach that combines DTA prediction with masked language modeling (MLM) using paired drug-target data. (2) A semi-supervised training method that leverages large-scale unpaired molecules and proteins to enhance drug and target representations. This approach differs from previous methods that only employed molecules or proteins in pre-training. (3) The integration of a lightweight cross-attention module to improve the interaction between drugs and targets, further enhancing prediction accuracy. Through extensive experiments on benchmark datasets such as BindingDB, DAVIS, and KIBA, we demonstrate the superior performance of our framework. Additionally, we conduct case studies on specific drug-target binding activities, virtual screening experiments, drug feature visualizations, and real-world applications, all of which showcase the significant potential of our work. In conclusion, our proposed SSM-DTA framework addresses the data limitation challenge in DTA prediction and yields promising results, paving the way for more efficient and accurate drug discovery processes. Our code is available at https://github.com/QizhiPei/SSM-DTA{Github}.

Motivation: The activity of the adaptive immune system is governed by T-cells and their specific T-cell receptors (TCR), which selectively recognize foreign antigens. Recent advances in experimental techniques have enabled sequencing of TCRs and their antigenic targets (epitopes), allowing to research the missing link between TCR sequence and epitope binding specificity. Scarcity of data and a large sequence space make this task challenging, and to date only models limited to a small set of epitopes have achieved good performance. Here, we establish a k-nearest-neighbor (K-NN) classifier as a strong baseline and then propose TITAN (Tcr epITope bimodal Attention Networks), a bimodal neural network that explicitly encodes both TCR sequences and epitopes to enable the independent study of generalization capabilities to unseen TCRs and/or epitopes. Results: By encoding epitopes at the atomic level with SMILES sequences, we leverage transfer learning and data augmentation to enrich the input data space and boost performance. TITAN achieves high performance in the prediction of specificity of unseen TCRs (ROC-AUC 0.87 in 10-fold CV) and surpasses the results of the current state-of-the-art (ImRex) by a large margin. Notably, our Levenshtein-distance-based K-NN classifier also exhibits competitive performance on unseen TCRs. While the generalization to unseen epitopes remains challenging, we report two major breakthroughs. First, by dissecting the attention heatmaps, we demonstrate that the sparsity of available epitope data favors an implicit treatment of epitopes as classes. This may be a general problem that limits unseen epitope performance for sufficiently complex models. Second, we show that TITAN nevertheless exhibits significantly improved performance on unseen epitopes and is capable of focusing attention on chemically meaningful molecular structures.

We describe the accurate prediction of ligand-protein interaction (LPI) affinities, also known as drug-target interactions (DTI), with instruction fine-tuned pretrained generative small language models (SLMs). We achieved accurate predictions for a range of affinity values associated with ligand-protein interactions on out-of-sample data in a zero-shot setting. Only the SMILES string of the ligand and the amino acid sequence of the protein were used as the model inputs. Our results demonstrate a clear improvement over machine learning (ML) and free-energy perturbation (FEP+) based methods in accurately predicting a range of ligand-protein interaction affinities, which can be leveraged to further accelerate drug discovery campaigns against challenging therapeutic targets.

Multi-attribution learning (MAL), which enhances model performance by learning from conversion labels yielded by multiple attribution mechanisms, has emerged as a promising learning paradigm for conversion rate (CVR) prediction. However, the conversion labels in public CVR datasets are generated by a single attribution mechanism, hindering the development of MAL approaches. To address this data gap, we establish the Multi-Attribution Benchmark (MAC), the first public CVR dataset featuring labels from multiple attribution mechanisms. Besides, to promote reproducible research on MAL, we develop PyMAL, an open-source library covering a wide array of baseline methods. We conduct comprehensive experimental analyses on MAC and reveal three key insights: (1) MAL brings consistent performance gains across different attribution settings, especially for users featuring long conversion paths. (2) The performance growth scales up with objective complexity in most settings; however, when predicting first-click conversion targets, simply adding auxiliary objectives is counterproductive, underscoring the necessity of careful selection of auxiliary objectives. (3) Two architectural design principles are paramount: first, to fully learn the multi-attribution knowledge, and second, to fully leverage this knowledge to serve the main task. Motivated by these findings, we propose Mixture of Asymmetric Experts (MoAE), an effective MAL approach incorporating multi-attribution knowledge learning and main task-centric knowledge utilization. Experiments on MAC show that MoAE substantially surpasses the existing state-of-the-art MAL method. We believe that our benchmark and insights will foster future research in the MAL field. Our MAC benchmark and the PyMAL algorithm library are publicly available at https://github.com/alimama-tech/PyMAL.

Following the gaze of other people and analyzing the target they are looking at can help us understand what they are thinking, and doing, and predict the actions that may follow. Existing methods for gaze following struggle to perform well in natural scenes with diverse objects, and focus on gaze points rather than objects, making it difficult to deliver clear semantics and accurate scope of the targets. To address this shortcoming, we propose a novel gaze target prediction solution named GazeSeg, that can fully utilize the spatial visual field of the person as guiding information and lead to a progressively coarse-to-fine gaze target segmentation and recognition process. Specifically, a prompt-based visual foundation model serves as the encoder, working in conjunction with three distinct decoding modules (e.g. FoV perception, heatmap generation, and segmentation) to form the framework for gaze target prediction. Then, with the head bounding box performed as an initial prompt, GazeSeg obtains the FoV map, heatmap, and segmentation map progressively, leading to a unified framework for multiple tasks (e.g. direction estimation, gaze target segmentation, and recognition). In particular, to facilitate this research, we construct and release a new dataset, comprising 72k images with pixel-level annotations and 270 categories of gaze targets, built upon the GazeFollow dataset. The quantitative evaluation shows that our approach achieves the Dice of 0.325 in gaze target segmentation and 71.7% top-5 recognition. Meanwhile, our approach also outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods, achieving 0.953 in AUC on the gaze-following task. The dataset and code will be released.

Vulnerabilities related to option combinations pose a significant challenge in software security testing due to their vast search space. Previous research primarily addressed this challenge through mutation or filtering techniques, which inefficiently treated all option combinations as having equal potential for vulnerabilities, thus wasting considerable time on non-vulnerable targets and resulting in low testing efficiency. In this paper, we utilize carefully designed prompt engineering to drive the large language model (LLM) to predict high-risk option combinations (i.e., more likely to contain vulnerabilities) and perform fuzz testing automatically without human intervention. We developed a tool called ProphetFuzz and evaluated it on a dataset comprising 52 programs collected from three related studies. The entire experiment consumed 10.44 CPU years. ProphetFuzz successfully predicted 1748 high-risk option combinations at an average cost of only \$8.69 per program. Results show that after 72 hours of fuzzing, ProphetFuzz discovered 364 unique vulnerabilities associated with 12.30\% of the predicted high-risk option combinations, which was 32.85\% higher than that found by state-of-the-art in the same timeframe. Additionally, using ProphetFuzz, we conducted persistent fuzzing on the latest versions of these programs, uncovering 140 vulnerabilities, with 93 confirmed by developers and 21 awarded CVE numbers.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Multi-token prediction has emerged as a promising objective for improving language model pretraining, but its benefits have not consistently generalized to other settings such as fine-tuning. In this paper, we propose MuToR, a simple and effective approach to multi-token prediction that interleaves learnable register tokens into the input sequence, each tasked with predicting future targets. Compared to existing methods, MuToR offers several key advantages: it introduces only a negligible number of additional parameters, requires no architectural changes--ensuring compatibility with off-the-shelf pretrained language models--and remains aligned with the next-token pretraining objective, making it especially well-suited for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, it naturally supports scalable prediction horizons. We demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of MuToR across a range of use cases, including supervised fine-tuning, parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT), and pretraining, on challenging generative tasks in both language and vision domains. Our code will be available at: https://github.com/nasosger/MuToR.

Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize the expected loss (risk) against a worst-case distribution consistent with the prediction set's coverage guarantee. We first characterize the minimax optimal policy for a fixed prediction set, showing that it balances the worst-case loss inside the set with a penalty for potential losses outside the set. Building on this, we derive the optimal prediction set construction that minimizes the resulting robust risk subject to a coverage constraint. Finally, we introduce Risk-Optimal Conformal Prediction (ROCP), a practical algorithm that targets these risk-minimizing sets while maintaining finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage. Empirical evaluations on medical diagnosis and safety-critical decision-making tasks demonstrate that ROCP reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, particularly when out-of-set errors are costly.

We introduce IntFold, a controllable foundation model for both general and specialized biomolecular structure prediction. IntFold demonstrates predictive accuracy comparable to the state-of-the-art AlphaFold3, while utilizing a superior customized attention kernel. Beyond standard structure prediction, IntFold can be adapted to predict allosteric states, constrained structures, and binding affinity through the use of individual adapters. Furthermore, we introduce a novel confidence head to estimate docking quality, offering a more nuanced assessment for challenging targets such as antibody-antigen complexes. Finally, we share insights gained during the training process of this computationally intensive model.

Unsupervised text representation learning (TRL) is a fundamental task in natural language processing, which is beneficial for improving search and recommendations with the web's unlabeled texts. A recent empirical study finds that the high-quality representation aligns with the key token of the input text, uncovering the potential connection between representation space and vocabulary space. Inspired by the findings, we revisit the generative tasks and develop an unsupervised generative framework for TRL, Text2Token. The framework is based on the token target prediction task, utilizing carefully constructed target token distribution as supervisory signals. To construct the high-quality target token distribution, we analyze the token-alignment properties with advanced embedders and identify two essential categories of key tokens: (1) the meaningful tokens in the text and (2) semantically derived tokens beyond the text. Based on these insights, we propose two methods -- data-driven and model-derived -- to construct synthetic token targets from data or the LLM backbone. Experiments on the MTEB v2 benchmark demonstrate that Text2Token achieves performance competitive with the state-of-the-art embedder with unsupervised contrastive learning, LLM2Vec. Our analysis further shows that vocabulary and representation spaces optimize together and toward the optimum solution during training, providing new ideas and insights for future work.

Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) offer a promising approach to self-supervised speech representation learning, but suffer from representation collapse without explicit grounding. We propose GMM-Anchored JEPA, which fits a Gaussian Mixture Model once on log-mel spectrograms and uses its frozen soft posteriors as auxiliary targets throughout training. A decaying supervision schedule allows GMM regularization to dominate early training before gradually yielding to the JEPA objective. Unlike HuBERT and WavLM, which require iterative re-clustering, our approach clusters input features once with soft rather than hard assignments. On ~50k hours of speech, GMM anchoring improves ASR (28.68% vs. 33.22% WER), emotion recognition (67.76% vs. 65.46%), and slot filling (64.7% vs. 59.1% F1) compared to a WavLM-style baseline with matched compute. Cluster analysis shows GMM-anchored representations achieve up to 98% entropy compared to 31% for WavLM-style, indicating substantially more uniform cluster utilization. Code is made available at https://github.com/gioannides/clustering-anchored-jepa.

Powerful generative AI models of protein-ligand structure have recently been proposed, but few of these methods support both flexible protein-ligand docking and affinity estimation. Of those that do, none can directly model multiple binding ligands concurrently or have been rigorously benchmarked on pharmacologically relevant drug targets, hindering their widespread adoption in drug discovery efforts. In this work, we propose FlowDock, the first deep geometric generative model based on conditional flow matching that learns to directly map unbound (apo) structures to their bound (holo) counterparts for an arbitrary number of binding ligands. Furthermore, FlowDock provides predicted structural confidence scores and binding affinity values with each of its generated protein-ligand complex structures, enabling fast virtual screening of new (multi-ligand) drug targets. For the well-known PoseBusters Benchmark dataset, FlowDock outperforms single-sequence AlphaFold 3 with a 51% blind docking success rate using unbound (apo) protein input structures and without any information derived from multiple sequence alignments, and for the challenging new DockGen-E dataset, FlowDock outperforms single-sequence AlphaFold 3 and matches single-sequence Chai-1 for binding pocket generalization. Additionally, in the ligand category of the 16th community-wide Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction (CASP16), FlowDock ranked among the top-5 methods for pharmacological binding affinity estimation across 140 protein-ligand complexes, demonstrating the efficacy of its learned representations in virtual screening. Source code, data, and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/BioinfoMachineLearning/FlowDock.

In this paper, we propose a new paradigm, named Historical Object Prediction (HoP) for multi-view 3D detection to leverage temporal information more effectively. The HoP approach is straightforward: given the current timestamp t, we generate a pseudo Bird's-Eye View (BEV) feature of timestamp t-k from its adjacent frames and utilize this feature to predict the object set at timestamp t-k. Our approach is motivated by the observation that enforcing the detector to capture both the spatial location and temporal motion of objects occurring at historical timestamps can lead to more accurate BEV feature learning. First, we elaborately design short-term and long-term temporal decoders, which can generate the pseudo BEV feature for timestamp t-k without the involvement of its corresponding camera images. Second, an additional object decoder is flexibly attached to predict the object targets using the generated pseudo BEV feature. Note that we only perform HoP during training, thus the proposed method does not introduce extra overheads during inference. As a plug-and-play approach, HoP can be easily incorporated into state-of-the-art BEV detection frameworks, including BEVFormer and BEVDet series. Furthermore, the auxiliary HoP approach is complementary to prevalent temporal modeling methods, leading to significant performance gains. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed HoP on the nuScenes dataset. We choose the representative methods, including BEVFormer and BEVDet4D-Depth to evaluate our method. Surprisingly, HoP achieves 68.5% NDS and 62.4% mAP with ViT-L on nuScenes test, outperforming all the 3D object detectors on the leaderboard. Codes will be available at https://github.com/Sense-X/HoP.

State-of-the-art methods for self-supervised learning (SSL) build representations by maximizing the similarity between different transformed "views" of a sample. Without sufficient diversity in the transformations used to create views, however, it can be difficult to overcome nuisance variables in the data and build rich representations. This motivates the use of the dataset itself to find similar, yet distinct, samples to serve as views for one another. In this paper, we introduce Mine Your Own vieW (MYOW), a new approach for self-supervised learning that looks within the dataset to define diverse targets for prediction. The idea behind our approach is to actively mine views, finding samples that are neighbors in the representation space of the network, and then predict, from one sample's latent representation, the representation of a nearby sample. After showing the promise of MYOW on benchmarks used in computer vision, we highlight the power of this idea in a novel application in neuroscience where SSL has yet to be applied. When tested on multi-unit neural recordings, we find that MYOW outperforms other self-supervised approaches in all examples (in some cases by more than 10%), and often surpasses the supervised baseline. With MYOW, we show that it is possible to harness the diversity of the data to build rich views and leverage self-supervision in new domains where augmentations are limited or unknown.

Video-based pretraining offers immense potential for learning strong visual representations on an unprecedented scale. Recently, masked video modeling methods have shown promising scalability, yet fall short in capturing higher-level semantics due to reconstructing predefined low-level targets such as pixels. To tackle this, we present Sinkhorn-guided Masked Video Modelling (SIGMA), a novel video pretraining method that jointly learns the video model in addition to a target feature space using a projection network. However, this simple modification means that the regular L2 reconstruction loss will lead to trivial solutions as both networks are jointly optimized. As a solution, we distribute features of space-time tubes evenly across a limited number of learnable clusters. By posing this as an optimal transport problem, we enforce high entropy in the generated features across the batch, infusing semantic and temporal meaning into the feature space. The resulting cluster assignments are used as targets for a symmetric prediction task where the video model predicts cluster assignment of the projection network and vice versa. Experimental results on ten datasets across three benchmarks validate the effectiveness of SIGMA in learning more performant, temporally-aware, and robust video representations improving upon state-of-the-art methods. Our project website with code is available at: https://quva-lab.github.io/SIGMA.

Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions. Recent approaches using conformal prediction construct data-driven uncertainty sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but they still fix coverage targets a priori and offer little guidance for selecting robustness levels. We propose a new framework that provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on both miscoverage and regret for any family of robust predict-then-optimize policies. Our method constructs valid estimators that trace out the miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier, enabling decision-makers to reliably evaluate and calibrate robustness levels according to their cost-risk preferences. The framework is simple to implement, broadly applicable across classical optimization formulations, and achieves sharper finite-sample performance than existing approaches. These results offer the first principled data-driven methodology for guiding robustness selection and empower practitioners to balance robustness and conservativeness in high-stakes decision-making.

Pretraining Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies on internet-scale video is appealing, yet current latent-action objectives often learn the wrong thing: they remain anchored to pixel variation rather than action-relevant state transitions, making them vulnerable to appearance bias, nuisance motion, and information leakage. We introduce VLA-JEPA, a JEPA-style pretraining framework that sidesteps these pitfalls by design. The key idea is leakage-free state prediction: a target encoder produces latent representations from future frames, while the student pathway sees only the current observation -- future information is used solely as supervision targets, never as input. By predicting in latent space rather than pixel space, VLA-JEPA learns dynamics abstractions that are robust to camera motion and irrelevant background changes. This yields a simple two-stage recipe -- JEPA pretraining followed by action-head fine-tuning -- without the multi-stage complexity of prior latent-action pipelines. Experiments on LIBERO, LIBERO-Plus, SimplerEnv and real-world manipulation tasks show that VLA-JEPA achieves consistent gains in generalization and robustness over existing methods.

Modeling users' dynamic preferences from historical behaviors lies at the core of modern recommender systems. Due to the diverse nature of user interests, recent advances propose the multi-interest networks to encode historical behaviors into multiple interest vectors. In real scenarios, the corresponding items of captured interests are usually retrieved together to get exposure and collected into training data, which produces dependencies among interests. Unfortunately, multi-interest networks may incorrectly concentrate on subtle dependencies among captured interests. Misled by these dependencies, the spurious correlations between irrelevant interests and targets are captured, resulting in the instability of prediction results when training and test distributions do not match. In this paper, we introduce the widely used Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) to measure the degree of independence among captured interests and empirically show that the continuous increase of HSIC may harm model performance. Based on this, we propose a novel multi-interest network, named DEep Stable Multi-Interest Learning (DESMIL), which tries to eliminate the influence of subtle dependencies among captured interests via learning weights for training samples and make model concentrate more on underlying true causation. We conduct extensive experiments on public recommendation datasets, a large-scale industrial dataset and the synthetic datasets which simulate the out-of-distribution data. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed DESMIL outperforms state-of-the-art models by a significant margin. Besides, we also conduct comprehensive model analysis to reveal the reason why DESMIL works to a certain extent.

Aspect Sentiment Triplet Extraction (ASTE) is the most recent subtask of ABSA which outputs triplets of an aspect target, its associated sentiment, and the corresponding opinion term. Recent models perform the triplet extraction in an end-to-end manner but heavily rely on the interactions between each target word and opinion word. Thereby, they cannot perform well on targets and opinions which contain multiple words. Our proposed span-level approach explicitly considers the interaction between the whole spans of targets and opinions when predicting their sentiment relation. Thus, it can make predictions with the semantics of whole spans, ensuring better sentiment consistency. To ease the high computational cost caused by span enumeration, we propose a dual-channel span pruning strategy by incorporating supervision from the Aspect Term Extraction (ATE) and Opinion Term Extraction (OTE) tasks. This strategy not only improves computational efficiency but also distinguishes the opinion and target spans more properly. Our framework simultaneously achieves strong performance for the ASTE as well as ATE and OTE tasks. In particular, our analysis shows that our span-level approach achieves more significant improvements over the baselines on triplets with multi-word targets or opinions.

Executing language-conditioned tasks in dynamic visual environments remains a central challenge in embodied AI. Existing Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models predominantly adopt reactive state-to-action mappings, often leading to short-sighted behaviors and poor robustness in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we introduce F1, a pretrained VLA framework which integrates the visual foresight generation into decision-making pipeline. F1 adopts a Mixture-of-Transformer architecture with dedicated modules for perception, foresight generation, and control, thereby bridging understanding, generation, and actions. At its core, F1 employs a next-scale prediction mechanism to synthesize goal-conditioned visual foresight as explicit planning targets. By forecasting plausible future visual states, F1 reformulates action generation as a foresight-guided inverse dynamics problem, enabling actions that implicitly achieve visual goals. To endow F1 with robust and generalizable capabilities, we propose a three-stage training recipe on an extensive dataset comprising over 330k trajectories across 136 diverse tasks. This training scheme enhances modular reasoning and equips the model with transferable visual foresight, which is critical for complex and dynamic environments. Extensive evaluations on real-world tasks and simulation benchmarks demonstrate F1 consistently outperforms existing approaches, achieving substantial gains in both task success rate and generalization ability.

Recent advances in diffusion and flow matching models have highlighted a shift in the preferred prediction target -- moving from noise (varepsilon) and velocity (v) to direct data (x) prediction -- particularly in high-dimensional settings. However, a formal explanation of why the optimal target depends on the specific properties of the data remains elusive. In this work, we provide a theoretical framework based on a generalized prediction formulation that accommodates arbitrary output targets, of which varepsilon-, v-, and x-prediction are special cases. We derive the analytical relationship between data's geometry and the optimal prediction target, offering a rigorous justification for why x-prediction becomes superior when the ambient dimension significantly exceeds the data's intrinsic dimension. Furthermore, while our theory identifies dimensionality as the governing factor for the optimal prediction target, the intrinsic dimension of manifold-bound data is typically intractable to estimate in practice. To bridge this gap, we propose k-Diff, a framework that employs a data-driven approach to learn the optimal prediction parameter k directly from data, bypassing the need for explicit dimension estimation. Extensive experiments in both latent-space and pixel-space image generation demonstrate that k-Diff consistently outperforms fixed-target baselines across varying architectures and data scales, providing a principled and automated approach to enhancing generative performance.

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

Electrocardiography (ECG) signal generation has been heavily explored using generative adversarial networks (GAN) because the implementation of 12-lead ECGs is not always feasible. The GAN models have achieved remarkable results in reproducing ECG signals but are only designed for multiple lead inputs and the features the GAN model preserves have not been identified-limiting the generated signals use in cardiovascular disease (CVD)-predictive models. This paper presents ECGNet which is a procedure that generates a complete set of 12-lead ECG signals from any single lead input using a GAN framework with a bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) generator and a convolutional neural network (CNN) discriminator. Cross and auto-correlation analysis performed on the generated signals identifies features conserved during the signal generation-i.e., features that can characterize the unique-nature of each signal and thus likely indicators of CVD. Finally, by using ECG signals annotated with the CVD-indicative features detailed by the correlation analysis as inputs for a CVD-onset-predictive CNN model, we overcome challenges preventing the prediction of multiple-CVD targets. Our models are experimented on 15s 12-lead ECG dataset recorded using MyoVista's wavECG. Functional outcome data for each patient is recorded and used in the CVD-predictive model. Our best GAN model achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with Frechet Distance (FD) scores of 4.73, 4.89, 5.18, 4.77, 4.71, and 5.55 on the V1-V6 pre-cordial leads respectively and shows strength in preserving the P-Q segments and R-peaks in the generated signals. To the best of our knowledge, ECGNet is the first to predict all of the remaining eleven leads from the input of any single lead.

Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) generate high-quality images by operating in a compressed latent space, typically obtained through image tokenizers such as Variational Autoencoders (VAEs). In pursuit of a generation-friendly VAE, recent studies have explored leveraging Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) as representation alignment targets for VAEs, mirroring the approach commonly adopted for LDMs. Although this yields certain performance gains, using the same alignment target for both VAEs and LDMs overlooks their fundamentally different representational requirements. We advocate that while LDMs benefit from latents retaining high-level semantic concepts, VAEs should excel in semantic disentanglement, enabling encoding of attribute-level information in a structured way. To address this, we propose the Semantic disentangled VAE (Send-VAE), explicitly optimized for disentangled representation learning through aligning its latent space with the semantic hierarchy of pre-trained VFMs. Our approach employs a non-linear mapper network to transform VAE latents, aligning them with VFMs to bridge the gap between attribute-level disentanglement and high-level semantics, facilitating effective guidance for VAE learning. We evaluate semantic disentanglement via linear probing on attribute prediction tasks, showing strong correlation with improved generation performance. Finally, using Send-VAE, we train flow-based transformers SiTs; experiments show Send-VAE significantly speeds up training and achieves a state-of-the-art FID of 1.21 and 1.75 with and without classifier-free guidance on ImageNet 256x256.

For a complicated algorithm, its implementation by a human programmer usually starts with outlining a rough control flow followed by iterative enrichments, eventually yielding carefully generated syntactic structures and variables in a hierarchy. However, state-of-the-art large language models generate codes in a single pass, without intermediate warm-ups to reflect the structured thought process of "outline-then-detail". Inspired by the recent success of chain-of-thought prompting, we propose ChainCoder, a program synthesis language model that generates Python code progressively, i.e. from coarse to fine in multiple passes. We first decompose source code into layout frame components and accessory components via abstract syntax tree parsing to construct a hierarchical representation. We then reform our prediction target into a multi-pass objective, each pass generates a subsequence, which is concatenated in the hierarchy. Finally, a tailored transformer architecture is leveraged to jointly encode the natural language descriptions and syntactically aligned I/O data samples. Extensive evaluations show that ChainCoder outperforms state-of-the-arts, demonstrating that our progressive generation eases the reasoning procedure and guides the language model to generate higher-quality solutions. Our codes are available at: https://github.com/VITA-Group/ChainCoder.

This paper enhances image-GPT (iGPT), one of the pioneering works that introduce autoregressive pretraining to predict next pixels for visual representation learning. Two simple yet essential changes are made. First, we shift the prediction target from raw pixels to semantic tokens, enabling a higher-level understanding of visual content. Second, we supplement the autoregressive modeling by instructing the model to predict not only the next tokens but also the visible tokens. This pipeline is particularly effective when semantic tokens are encoded by discriminatively trained models, such as CLIP. We introduce this novel approach as D-iGPT. Extensive experiments showcase that D-iGPT excels as a strong learner of visual representations: A notable achievement of D-iGPT is its compelling performance on the ImageNet-1K dataset -- by training on publicly available datasets, D-iGPT achieves 89.5\% top-1 accuracy with a vanilla ViT-Large model. This model also shows strong generalization on the downstream task and robustness on out-of-distribution samples. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/D-iGPT{https://github.com/OliverRensu/D-iGPT}.

Many machine learning systems have access to multiple sources of evidence for the same prediction target, yet these sources often differ in reliability and informativeness across inputs. In bioacoustic classification, species identity may be inferred both from the acoustic signal and from spatiotemporal context such as location and season; while Bayesian inference motivates multiplicative evidence combination, in practice we typically only have access to discriminative predictors rather than calibrated generative models. We introduce Fusion under INdependent Conditional Hypotheses (FINCH), an adaptive log-linear evidence fusion framework that integrates a pre-trained audio classifier with a structured spatiotemporal predictor. FINCH learns a per-sample gating function that estimates the reliability of contextual information from uncertainty and informativeness statistics. The resulting fusion family contains the audio-only classifier as a special case and explicitly bounds the influence of contextual evidence, yielding a risk-contained hypothesis class with an interpretable audio-only fallback. Across benchmarks, FINCH consistently outperforms fixed-weight fusion and audio-only baselines, improving robustness and error trade-offs even when contextual information is weak in isolation. We achieve state-of-the-art performance on CBI and competitive or improved performance on several subsets of BirdSet using a lightweight, interpretable, evidence-based approach. Code is available: \href{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/birdnoise-85CD/README.md{anonymous-repository}}

Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in visual generation tasks. However, their low inference speed limits their deployment in low-resource applications. Recent training-free approaches exploit the redundancy of features across timesteps by caching and reusing past representations to accelerate inference. Building on this idea, TaylorSeer instead uses cached features to predict future ones via Taylor expansion. However, its module-level prediction across all transformer blocks (e.g., attention or feedforward modules) requires storing fine-grained intermediate features, leading to notable memory and computation overhead. Moreover, it adopts a fixed caching schedule without considering the varying accuracy of predictions across timesteps, which can lead to degraded outputs when prediction fails. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach to better leverage Taylor-based acceleration. First, we shift the Taylor prediction target from the module level to the last block level, significantly reducing the number of cached features. Furthermore, observing strong sequential dependencies among Transformer blocks, we propose to use the error between the Taylor-estimated and actual outputs of the first block as an indicator of prediction reliability. If the error is small, we trust the Taylor prediction for the last block; otherwise, we fall back to full computation, thereby enabling a dynamic caching mechanism. Empirical results show that our method achieves a better balance between speed and quality, achieving a 3.17x acceleration on FLUX, 2.36x on DiT, and 4.14x on Wan Video with negligible quality drop. The Project Page is https://cg-taylor-acce.github.io/CG-Taylor/{here.}

We present Depth Anything 3 (DA3), a model that predicts spatially consistent geometry from an arbitrary number of visual inputs, with or without known camera poses. In pursuit of minimal modeling, DA3 yields two key insights: a single plain transformer (e.g., vanilla DINO encoder) is sufficient as a backbone without architectural specialization, and a singular depth-ray prediction target obviates the need for complex multi-task learning. Through our teacher-student training paradigm, the model achieves a level of detail and generalization on par with Depth Anything 2 (DA2). We establish a new visual geometry benchmark covering camera pose estimation, any-view geometry and visual rendering. On this benchmark, DA3 sets a new state-of-the-art across all tasks, surpassing prior SOTA VGGT by an average of 44.3% in camera pose accuracy and 25.1% in geometric accuracy. Moreover, it outperforms DA2 in monocular depth estimation. All models are trained exclusively on public academic datasets.

Supervised low-level vision models rely on pixel-wise losses against paired references, yet paired training sets exhibit per-pair photometric inconsistency, say, different image pairs demand different global brightness, color, or white-balance mappings. This inconsistency enters through task-intrinsic photometric transfer (e.g., low-light enhancement) or unintended acquisition shifts (e.g., de-raining), and in either case causes an optimization pathology. Standard reconstruction losses allocate disproportionate gradient budget to conflicting per-pair photometric targets, crowding out content restoration. In this paper, we investigate this issue and prove that, under least-squares decomposition, the photometric and structural components of the prediction-target residual are orthogonal, and that the spatially dense photometric component dominates the gradient energy. Motivated by this analysis, we propose Photometric Alignment Loss (PAL). This flexible supervision objective discounts nuisance photometric discrepancy via closed-form affine color alignment while preserving restoration-relevant supervision, requiring only covariance statistics and tiny matrix inversion with negligible overhead. Across 6 tasks, 16 datasets, and 16 architectures, PAL consistently improves metrics and generalization. The implementation is in the appendix.

Recently, research on denoising diffusion models has expanded its application to the field of image restoration. Traditional diffusion-based image restoration methods utilize degraded images as conditional input to effectively guide the reverse generation process, without modifying the original denoising diffusion process. However, since the degraded images already include low-frequency information, starting from Gaussian white noise will result in increased sampling steps. We propose Resfusion, a general framework that incorporates the residual term into the diffusion forward process, starting the reverse process directly from the noisy degraded images. The form of our inference process is consistent with the DDPM. We introduced a weighted residual noise, named resnoise, as the prediction target and explicitly provide the quantitative relationship between the residual term and the noise term in resnoise. By leveraging a smooth equivalence transformation, Resfusion determine the optimal acceleration step and maintains the integrity of existing noise schedules, unifying the training and inference processes. The experimental results demonstrate that Resfusion exhibits competitive performance on ISTD dataset, LOL dataset and Raindrop dataset with only five sampling steps. Furthermore, Resfusion can be easily applied to image generation and emerges with strong versatility. Our code and model are available at https://github.com/nkicsl/Resfusion.

In recent years, the community of 'explainable artificial intelligence' (XAI) has created a vast body of methods to bridge a perceived gap between model 'complexity' and 'interpretability'. However, a concrete problem to be solved by XAI methods has not yet been formally stated. As a result, XAI methods are lacking theoretical and empirical evidence for the 'correctness' of their explanations, limiting their potential use for quality-control and transparency purposes. At the same time, Haufe et al. (2014) showed, using simple toy examples, that even standard interpretations of linear models can be highly misleading. Specifically, high importance may be attributed to so-called suppressor variables lacking any statistical relation to the prediction target. This behavior has been confirmed empirically for a large array of XAI methods in Wilming et al. (2022). Here, we go one step further by deriving analytical expressions for the behavior of a variety of popular XAI methods on a simple two-dimensional binary classification problem involving Gaussian class-conditional distributions. We show that the majority of the studied approaches will attribute non-zero importance to a non-class-related suppressor feature in the presence of correlated noise. This poses important limitations on the interpretations and conclusions that the outputs of these XAI methods can afford.

The goal of precipitation nowcasting is to predict the future rainfall intensity in a local region over a relatively short period of time. Very few previous studies have examined this crucial and challenging weather forecasting problem from the machine learning perspective. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem in which both the input and the prediction target are spatiotemporal sequences. By extending the fully connected LSTM (FC-LSTM) to have convolutional structures in both the input-to-state and state-to-state transitions, we propose the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and use it to build an end-to-end trainable model for the precipitation nowcasting problem. Experiments show that our ConvLSTM network captures spatiotemporal correlations better and consistently outperforms FC-LSTM and the state-of-the-art operational ROVER algorithm for precipitation nowcasting.

This paper tries to address a fundamental question in point cloud self-supervised learning: what is a good signal we should leverage to learn features from point clouds without annotations? To answer that, we introduce a point cloud representation learning framework, based on geometric feature reconstruction. In contrast to recent papers that directly adopt masked autoencoder (MAE) and only predict original coordinates or occupancy from masked point clouds, our method revisits differences between images and point clouds and identifies three self-supervised learning objectives peculiar to point clouds, namely centroid prediction, normal estimation, and curvature prediction. Combined with occupancy prediction, these four objectives yield an nontrivial self-supervised learning task and mutually facilitate models to better reason fine-grained geometry of point clouds. Our pipeline is conceptually simple and it consists of two major steps: first, it randomly masks out groups of points, followed by a Transformer-based point cloud encoder; second, a lightweight Transformer decoder predicts centroid, normal, and curvature for points in each voxel. We transfer the pre-trained Transformer encoder to a downstream peception model. On the nuScene Datset, our model achieves 3.38 mAP improvment for object detection, 2.1 mIoU gain for segmentation, and 1.7 AMOTA gain for multi-object tracking. We also conduct experiments on the Waymo Open Dataset and achieve significant performance improvements over baselines as well.

Every data selection method inherently has a target. In practice, these targets often emerge implicitly through benchmark-driven iteration: researchers develop selection strategies, train models, measure benchmark performance, then refine accordingly. This raises a natural question: what happens when we make this optimization explicit? To explore this, we propose benchmark-targeted ranking (BETR), a simple method that selects pretraining documents based on similarity to benchmark training examples. BETR embeds benchmark examples and a sample of pretraining documents in a shared space, scores this sample by similarity to benchmarks, then trains a lightweight classifier to predict these scores for the full corpus. We compare data selection methods by training over 500 models spanning 10^{19} to 10^{22} FLOPs and fitting scaling laws to them. From this, we find that simply aligning pretraining data to evaluation benchmarks using BETR achieves a 2.1x compute multiplier over DCLM-Baseline (4.7x over unfiltered data) and improves performance on 9 out of 10 tasks across all scales. BETR also generalizes well: when targeting a diverse set of benchmarks disjoint from our evaluation suite, it still matches or outperforms baselines. Our scaling analysis further reveals a clear trend: larger models require less aggressive filtering. Overall, our findings show that directly matching pretraining data to target tasks precisely shapes model capabilities and highlight that optimal selection strategies must adapt to model scale.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

Embodied navigation for long-horizon tasks, guided by complex natural language instructions, remains a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Existing agents often struggle with robust long-term planning about unseen environments, leading to high failure rates. To address these limitations, we introduce NavForesee, a novel Vision-Language Model (VLM) that unifies high-level language planning and predictive world model imagination within a single, unified framework. Our approach empowers a single VLM to concurrently perform planning and predictive foresight. Conditioned on the full instruction and historical observations, the model is trained to understand the navigation instructions by decomposing the task, tracking its progress, and formulating the subsequent sub-goal. Simultaneously, it functions as a generative world model, providing crucial foresight by predicting short-term environmental dynamics and long-term navigation milestones. The VLM's structured plan guides its targeted prediction, while the imagined future provides rich context to inform the navigation actions, creating a powerful internal feedback loop of perception-planning/prediction-action. We demonstrate through extensive experiments on the R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmark that NavForesee achieves highly competitive performance in complex scenarios. Our work highlights the immense potential of fusing explicit language planning with implicit spatiotemporal prediction, paving the way for more intelligent and capable embodied agents.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Aspect sentiment quadruple prediction (ASQP) facilitates a detailed understanding of opinions expressed in a text by identifying the opinion term, aspect term, aspect category and sentiment polarity for each opinion. However, annotating a full set of training examples to fine-tune models for ASQP is a resource-intensive process. In this study, we explore the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for zero- and few-shot learning on the ASQP task across five diverse datasets. We report F1 scores slightly below those obtained with state-of-the-art fine-tuned models but exceeding previously reported zero- and few-shot performance. In the 40-shot setting on the Rest16 restaurant domain dataset, LLMs achieved an F1 score of 52.46, compared to 60.39 by the best-performing fine-tuned method MVP. Additionally, we report the performance of LLMs in target aspect sentiment detection (TASD), where the F1 scores were also close to fine-tuned models, achieving 66.03 on Rest16 in the 40-shot setting, compared to 72.76 with MVP. While human annotators remain essential for achieving optimal performance, LLMs can reduce the need for extensive manual annotation in ASQP tasks.

The goal of predictive data attribution is to estimate how adding or removing a given set of training datapoints will affect model predictions. In convex settings, this goal is straightforward (i.e., via the infinitesimal jackknife). In large-scale (non-convex) settings, however, existing methods are far less successful -- current methods' estimates often only weakly correlate with ground truth. In this work, we present a new data attribution method (MAGIC) that combines classical methods and recent advances in metadifferentiation to (nearly) optimally estimate the effect of adding or removing training data on model predictions.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Quantified policy targets are a fundamental element of climate policy, typically characterised by domain-specific and technical language. Current methods for curating comprehensive views of global climate policy targets entail significant manual effort. At present there are few scalable methods for extracting climate targets from national laws or policies, which limits policymakers' and researchers' ability to (1) assess private and public sector alignment with global goals and (2) inform policy decisions. In this paper we present an approach for extracting mentions of climate targets from national laws and policies. We create an expert-annotated dataset identifying three categories of target ('Net Zero', 'Reduction' and 'Other' (e.g. renewable energy targets)) and train a classifier to reliably identify them in text. We investigate bias and equity impacts related to our model and identify specific years and country names as problematic features. Finally, we investigate the characteristics of the dataset produced by running this classifier on the Climate Policy Radar (CPR) dataset of global national climate laws and policies and UNFCCC submissions, highlighting the potential of automated and scalable data collection for existing climate policy databases and supporting further research. Our work represents a significant upgrade in the accessibility of these key climate policy elements for policymakers and researchers. We publish our model at https://huggingface.co/ClimatePolicyRadar/national-climate-targets and related dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ClimatePolicyRadar/national-climate-targets.

In automated planning, recognising the goal of an agent from a trace of observations is an important task with many applications. The state-of-the-art approaches to goal recognition rely on the application of planning techniques, which requires a model of the domain actions and of the initial domain state (written, e.g., in PDDL). We study an alternative approach where goal recognition is formulated as a classification task addressed by machine learning. Our approach, called GRNet, is primarily aimed at making goal recognition more accurate as well as faster by learning how to solve it in a given domain. Given a planning domain specified by a set of propositions and a set of action names, the goal classification instances in the domain are solved by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). A run of the RNN processes a trace of observed actions to compute how likely it is that each domain proposition is part of the agent's goal, for the problem instance under considerations. These predictions are then aggregated to choose one of the candidate goals. The only information required as input of the trained RNN is a trace of action labels, each one indicating just the name of an observed action. An experimental analysis confirms that \our achieves good performance in terms of both goal classification accuracy and runtime, obtaining better performance w.r.t. a state-of-the-art goal recognition system over the considered benchmarks.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

In this study, we approached the Hit Song Prediction problem, which aims to predict which songs will become Billboard hits. We gathered a dataset of nearly 18500 hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four machine-learning models on our dataset. We were able to predict the Billboard success of a song with approximately 86\% accuracy. The most succesful algorithms were Random Forest and Support Vector Machine.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

The approval success rate of drug candidates is very low with the majority of failure due to safety and efficacy. Increasingly available high dimensional information on targets, drug molecules and indications provides an opportunity for ML methods to integrate multiple data modalities and better predict clinically promising drug targets. Notably, drug targets with human genetics evidence are shown to have better odds to succeed. However, a recent tensor factorization-based approach found that additional information on targets and indications might not necessarily improve the predictive accuracy. Here we revisit this approach by integrating different types of human genetics evidence collated from publicly available sources to support each target-indication pair. We use Bayesian tensor factorization to show that models incorporating all available human genetics evidence (rare disease, gene burden, common disease) modestly improves the clinical outcome prediction over models using single line of genetics evidence. We provide additional insight into the relative predictive power of different types of human genetics evidence for predicting the success of clinical outcomes.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Domain adaptation (DA) attempts to transfer the knowledge from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain that follows different distribution from the source. To achieve this, DA methods include a source classification objective to extract the source knowledge and a domain alignment objective to diminish the domain shift, ensuring knowledge transfer. Typically, former DA methods adopt some weight hyper-parameters to linearly combine the training objectives to form an overall objective. However, the gradient directions of these objectives may conflict with each other due to domain shift. Under such circumstances, the linear optimization scheme might decrease the overall objective value at the expense of damaging one of the training objectives, leading to restricted solutions. In this paper, we rethink the optimization scheme for DA from a gradient-based perspective. We propose a Pareto Domain Adaptation (ParetoDA) approach to control the overall optimization direction, aiming to cooperatively optimize all training objectives. Specifically, to reach a desirable solution on the target domain, we design a surrogate loss mimicking target classification. To improve target-prediction accuracy to support the mimicking, we propose a target-prediction refining mechanism which exploits domain labels via Bayes' theorem. On the other hand, since prior knowledge of weighting schemes for objectives is often unavailable to guide optimization to approach the optimal solution on the target domain, we propose a dynamic preference mechanism to dynamically guide our cooperative optimization by the gradient of the surrogate loss on a held-out unlabeled target dataset. Extensive experiments on image classification and semantic segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of ParetoDA

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is escalating and outpacing current antibiotic development. Thus, discovering antibiotics effective against emerging pathogens is becoming increasingly critical. However, existing approaches cannot rapidly identify effective molecules against novel pathogens or emerging drug-resistant strains. Here, we introduce ApexOracle, an artificial intelligence (AI) model that both predicts the antibacterial potency of existing compounds and designs de novo molecules active against strains it has never encountered. Departing from models that rely solely on molecular features, ApexOracle incorporates pathogen-specific context through the integration of molecular features captured via a foundational discrete diffusion language model and a dual-embedding framework that combines genomic- and literature-derived strain representations. Across diverse bacterial species and chemical modalities, ApexOracle consistently outperformed state-of-the-art approaches in activity prediction and demonstrated reliable transferability to novel pathogens with little or no antimicrobial data. Its unified representation-generation architecture further enables the in silico creation of "new-to-nature" molecules with high predicted efficacy against priority threats. By pairing rapid activity prediction with targeted molecular generation, ApexOracle offers a scalable strategy for countering AMR and preparing for future infectious-disease outbreaks.

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.

Gaze behaviors such as eye-contact or shared attention are important markers for diagnosing developmental disorders in children. While previous studies have looked at some of these elements, the analysis is usually performed on private datasets and is restricted to lab settings. Furthermore, all publicly available gaze target prediction benchmarks mostly contain instances of adults, which makes models trained on them less applicable to scenarios with young children. In this paper, we propose the first study for predicting the gaze target of children and interacting adults. To this end, we introduce the ChildPlay dataset: a curated collection of short video clips featuring children playing and interacting with adults in uncontrolled environments (e.g. kindergarten, therapy centers, preschools etc.), which we annotate with rich gaze information. We further propose a new model for gaze target prediction that is geometrically grounded by explicitly identifying the scene parts in the 3D field of view (3DFoV) of the person, leveraging recent geometry preserving depth inference methods. Our model achieves state of the art results on benchmark datasets and ChildPlay. Furthermore, results show that looking at faces prediction performance on children is much worse than on adults, and can be significantly improved by fine-tuning models using child gaze annotations. Our dataset and models will be made publicly available.

The data landscape is rich with structured data, often of high value to organizations, driving important applications in data analysis and machine learning. Recent progress in representation learning and generative models for such data has led to the development of natural language interfaces to structured data, including those leveraging text-to-SQL. Contextualizing interactions, either through conversational interfaces or agentic components, in structured data through retrieval-augmented generation can provide substantial benefits in the form of freshness, accuracy, and comprehensiveness of answers. The key question is: how do we retrieve the right table(s) for the analytical query or task at hand? To this end, we introduce TARGET: a benchmark for evaluating TAble Retrieval for GEnerative Tasks. With TARGET we analyze the retrieval performance of different retrievers in isolation, as well as their impact on downstream tasks. We find that dense embedding-based retrievers far outperform a BM25 baseline which is less effective than it is for retrieval over unstructured text. We also surface the sensitivity of retrievers across various metadata (e.g., missing table titles), and demonstrate a stark variation of retrieval performance across datasets and tasks. TARGET is available at https://target-benchmark.github.io.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

The development of state-of-the-art large language models is commonly understood as a two-stage process involving pre-training and post-training. We point out the need for an additional intermediate stage called reinforcement mid-training with potential for strong performance gains. In this paper, we formally define the problem and identify three key challenges: (1) inefficient training due to excessive reasoning steps, (2) disregard of the imbalanced token entropy distribution, and (3) underutilization of token information. To address these challenges, we propose RMT, a framework for efficient, adaptive, and unified reinforcement mid-training with various innovative components. In particular, we first introduce a dynamic token budget mechanism that constrains unnecessary reasoning steps and mitigates model overthinking. Next, we design a curriculum-based adaptive sampling method that fosters a progressive learning trajectory from easy to hard tokens. Finally, we present a dual training strategy that combines reinforcement learning with next-token prediction, ensuring targeted learning on key tokens and full exploitation of all token information. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of RMT over state-of-the-art methods, achieving up to +64.91% performance improvement with only 21% of the reasoning length in language modeling. We also show that checkpoints obtained after reinforcement mid-training can benefit the subsequent post-training, yielding up to +18.76% improvement in the mathematical domain.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable ability in various language tasks, especially with their emergent in-context learning capability. Extending LLMs to incorporate visual inputs, large vision-language models (LVLMs) have shown impressive performance in tasks such as recognition and visual question answering (VQA). Despite increasing interest in the utility of LLMs in causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery and counterfactual reasoning, there has been relatively little work showcasing the abilities of LVLMs on visual causal reasoning tasks. We take this opportunity to formally introduce a comprehensive causal reasoning benchmark for multi-modal in-context learning from LVLMs. Our CausalVLBench encompasses three representative tasks: causal structure inference, intervention target prediction, and counterfactual prediction. We evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art open-source LVLMs on our causal reasoning tasks across three causal representation learning datasets and demonstrate their fundamental strengths and weaknesses. We hope that our benchmark elucidates the drawbacks of existing vision-language models and motivates new directions and paradigms in improving the visual causal reasoning abilities of LVLMs.

Today, most newsreaders read the online version of news articles rather than traditional paper-based newspapers. Also, news media publishers rely heavily on the income generated from subscriptions and website visits made by newsreaders. Thus, online user engagement is a very important issue for online newspapers. Much effort has been spent on writing interesting headlines to catch the attention of online users. On the other hand, headlines should not be misleading (e.g., clickbaits); otherwise, readers would be disappointed when reading the content. In this paper, we propose four indicators to determine the quality of published news headlines based on their click count and dwell time, which are obtained by website log analysis. Then, we use soft target distribution of the calculated quality indicators to train our proposed deep learning model which can predict the quality of unpublished news headlines. The proposed model not only processes the latent features of both headline and body of the article to predict its headline quality but also considers the semantic relation between headline and body as well. To evaluate our model, we use a real dataset from a major Canadian newspaper. Results show our proposed model outperforms other state-of-the-art NLP models.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Distribution matching distillation (DMD) aligns a multi-step generator with its few-step counterpart to enable high-quality generation under low inference cost. However, DMD tends to suffer from mode collapse, as its reverse-KL formulation inherently encourages mode-seeking behavior, for which existing remedies typically rely on perceptual or adversarial regularization, thereby incurring substantial computational overhead and training instability. In this work, we propose a role-separated distillation framework that explicitly disentangles the roles of distilled steps: the first step is dedicated to preserving sample diversity via a target-prediction (e.g., v-prediction) objective, while subsequent steps focus on quality refinement under the standard DMD loss, with gradients from the DMD objective blocked at the first step. We term this approach Diversity-Preserved DMD (DP-DMD), which, despite its simplicity -- no perceptual backbone, no discriminator, no auxiliary networks, and no additional ground-truth images -- preserves sample diversity while maintaining visual quality on par with state-of-the-art methods in extensive text-to-image experiments.

Recently, extensive deep learning architectures and pretraining strategies have been explored to support downstream protein applications. Additionally, domain-specific models incorporating biological knowledge have been developed to enhance performance in specialized tasks. In this work, we introduce Protap, a comprehensive benchmark that systematically compares backbone architectures, pretraining strategies, and domain-specific models across diverse and realistic downstream protein applications. Specifically, Protap covers five applications: three general tasks and two novel specialized tasks, i.e., enzyme-catalyzed protein cleavage site prediction and targeted protein degradation, which are industrially relevant yet missing from existing benchmarks. For each application, Protap compares various domain-specific models and general architectures under multiple pretraining settings. Our empirical studies imply that: (i) Though large-scale pretraining encoders achieve great results, they often underperform supervised encoders trained on small downstream training sets. (ii) Incorporating structural information during downstream fine-tuning can match or even outperform protein language models pretrained on large-scale sequence corpora. (iii) Domain-specific biological priors can enhance performance on specialized downstream tasks. Code and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/Trust-App-AI-Lab/protap.

Training-free guided generation is a widely used and powerful technique that allows the end user to exert further control over the generative process of flow/diffusion models. Generally speaking, two families of techniques have emerged for solving this problem for gradient-based guidance: namely, posterior guidance (i.e., guidance via projecting the current sample to the target distribution via the target prediction model) and end-to-end guidance (i.e., guidance by performing backpropagation throughout the entire ODE solve). In this work, we show that these two seemingly separate families can actually be unified by looking at posterior guidance as a greedy strategy of end-to-end guidance. We explore the theoretical connections between these two families and provide an in-depth theoretical of these two techniques relative to the continuous ideal gradients. Motivated by this analysis we then show a method for interpolating between these two families enabling a trade-off between compute and accuracy of the guidance gradients. We then validate this work on several inverse image problems and property-guided molecular generation.

Machine learning models routinely automate decisions in applications like lending and hiring. In such settings, consumer protection rules require companies that deploy models to explain predictions to decision subjects. These rules are motivated, in part, by the belief that explanations can promote recourse by revealing information that individuals can use to contest or improve their outcomes. In practice, many companies comply with these rules by providing individuals with a list of the most important features for their prediction, which they identify based on feature importance scores from feature attribution methods such as SHAP or LIME. In this work, we show how these practices can undermine consumers by highlighting features that would not lead to an improved outcome and by explaining predictions that cannot be changed. We propose to address these issues by highlighting features based on their responsiveness score -- i.e., the probability that an individual can attain a target prediction by changing a specific feature. We develop efficient methods to compute responsiveness scores for any model and any dataset. We conduct an extensive empirical study on the responsiveness of explanations in lending. Our results show that standard practices in consumer finance can backfire by presenting consumers with reasons without recourse, and demonstrate how our approach improves consumer protection by highlighting responsive features and identifying fixed predictions.

Conventional demographic inference methods have predominantly operated under the supervision of accurately labeled data, yet struggle to adapt to shifting social landscapes and diverse cultural contexts, leading to narrow specialization and limited accuracy in applications. Recently, the emergence of large multimodal models (LMMs) has shown transformative potential across various research tasks, such as visual comprehension and description. In this study, we explore the application of LMMs to demographic inference and introduce a benchmark for both quantitative and qualitative evaluation. Our findings indicate that LMMs possess advantages in zero-shot learning, interpretability, and handling uncurated 'in-the-wild' inputs, albeit with a propensity for off-target predictions. To enhance LMM performance and achieve comparability with supervised learning baselines, we propose a Chain-of-Thought augmented prompting approach, which effectively mitigates the off-target prediction issue.

Prediction is an appealing objective for self-supervised learning of behavioral skills, particularly for autonomous robots. However, effectively utilizing predictive models for control, especially with raw image inputs, poses a number of major challenges. How should the predictions be used? What happens when they are inaccurate? In this paper, we tackle these questions by proposing a method for learning robotic skills from raw image observations, using only autonomously collected experience. We show that even an imperfect model can complete complex tasks if it can continuously retry, but this requires the model to not lose track of the objective (e.g., the object of interest). To enable a robot to continuously retry a task, we devise a self-supervised algorithm for learning image registration, which can keep track of objects of interest for the duration of the trial. We demonstrate that this idea can be combined with a video-prediction based controller to enable complex behaviors to be learned from scratch using only raw visual inputs, including grasping, repositioning objects, and non-prehensile manipulation. Our real-world experiments demonstrate that a model trained with 160 robot hours of autonomously collected, unlabeled data is able to successfully perform complex manipulation tasks with a wide range of objects not seen during training.

Multivariate time series anomalies often manifest as shifts in cross-channel dependencies rather than simple amplitude excursions. In autonomous driving, for instance, a steering command might be internally consistent but decouple from the resulting lateral acceleration. Residual-based detectors can miss such anomalies when flexible sequence models still reconstruct signals plausibly despite altered coordination. We introduce AxonAD, an unsupervised detector that treats multi-head attention query evolution as a short horizon predictable process. A gradient-updated reconstruction pathway is coupled with a history-only predictor that forecasts future query vectors from past context. This is trained via a masked predictor-target objective against an exponential moving average (EMA) target encoder. At inference, reconstruction error is combined with a tail-aggregated query mismatch score, which measures cosine deviation between predicted and target queries on recent timesteps. This dual approach provides sensitivity to structural dependency shifts while retaining amplitude-level detection. On proprietary in-vehicle telemetry with interval annotations and on the TSB-AD multi-variate suite (17 datasets, 180 series) with threshold-free and range-aware metrics, AxonAD improves ranking quality and temporal localization over strong baselines. Ablations confirm that query prediction and combined scoring are the primary drivers of the observed gains. Code is available at the URL https://github.com/iis-esslingen/AxonAD.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

We describe HypotheSAEs, a general method to hypothesize interpretable relationships between text data (e.g., headlines) and a target variable (e.g., clicks). HypotheSAEs has three steps: (1) train a sparse autoencoder on text embeddings to produce interpretable features describing the data distribution, (2) select features that predict the target variable, and (3) generate a natural language interpretation of each feature (e.g., "mentions being surprised or shocked") using an LLM. Each interpretation serves as a hypothesis about what predicts the target variable. Compared to baselines, our method better identifies reference hypotheses on synthetic datasets (at least +0.06 in F1) and produces more predictive hypotheses on real datasets (~twice as many significant findings), despite requiring 1-2 orders of magnitude less compute than recent LLM-based methods. HypotheSAEs also produces novel discoveries on two well-studied tasks: explaining partisan differences in Congressional speeches and identifying drivers of engagement with online headlines.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

Accurate prediction of drug-target interactions is critical for advancing drug discovery. By reducing time and cost, machine learning and deep learning can accelerate this discovery process. Our approach utilises the powerful Barlow Twins architecture for feature-extraction while considering the structure of the target protein, achieving state-of-the-art predictive performance against multiple established benchmarks. The use of gradient boosting machine as the underlying predictor ensures fast and efficient predictions without the need for large computational resources. In addition, we further benchmarked new baselines against existing methods. Together, these innovations improve the efficiency and effectiveness of drug-target interaction predictions, providing robust tools for accelerating drug development and deepening the understanding of molecular interactions.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

We present Visuelle 2.0, the first dataset useful for facing diverse prediction problems that a fast-fashion company has to manage routinely. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the use of computer vision is substantial in this scenario. Visuelle 2.0 contains data for 6 seasons / 5355 clothing products of Nuna Lie, a famous Italian company with hundreds of shops located in different areas within the country. In particular, we focus on a specific prediction problem, namely short-observation new product sale forecasting (SO-fore). SO-fore assumes that the season has started and a set of new products is on the shelves of the different stores. The goal is to forecast the sales for a particular horizon, given a short, available past (few weeks), since no earlier statistics are available. To be successful, SO-fore approaches should capture this short past and exploit other modalities or exogenous data. To these aims, Visuelle 2.0 is equipped with disaggregated data at the item-shop level and multi-modal information for each clothing item, allowing computer vision approaches to come into play. The main message that we deliver is that the use of image data with deep networks boosts performances obtained when using the time series in long-term forecasting scenarios, ameliorating the WAPE and MAE by up to 5.48% and 7% respectively compared to competitive baseline methods. The dataset is available at https://humaticslab.github.io/forecasting/visuelle

As retailers around the world increase efforts in developing targeted marketing campaigns for different audiences, predicting accurately which customers are most likely to churn ahead of time is crucial for marketing teams in order to increase business profits. This work presents a deep survival framework to predict which customers are at risk of stopping to purchase with retail companies in non-contractual settings. By leveraging the survival model parameters to be learnt by recurrent neural networks, we are able to obtain individual level survival models for purchasing behaviour based only on individual customer behaviour and avoid time-consuming feature engineering processes usually done when training machine learning models.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

Traditional time-series forecasting often focuses only on minimizing prediction errors, ignoring the specific requirements of real-world applications that employ them. This paper presents a new training methodology, which allows a forecasting model to dynamically adjust its focus based on the importance of forecast ranges specified by the end application. Unlike previous methods that fix these ranges beforehand, our training approach breaks down predictions over the entire signal range into smaller segments, which are then dynamically weighted and combined to produce accurate forecasts. We tested our method on standard datasets, including a new dataset from wireless communication, and found that not only it improves prediction accuracy but also improves the performance of end application employing the forecasting model. This research provides a basis for creating forecasting systems that better connect prediction and decision-making in various practical applications.

Large pre-trained language models (LMs) such as GPT-3 have acquired a surprising ability to perform zero-shot learning. For example, to classify sentiment without any training examples, we can "prompt" the LM with the review and the label description "Does the user like this movie?", and ask whether the next word is "yes" or "no". However, the next word prediction training objective is still misaligned with the target zero-shot learning objective. To address this weakness, we propose meta-tuning, which directly optimizes the zero-shot learning objective by fine-tuning pre-trained language models on a collection of datasets. We focus on classification tasks, and construct the meta-dataset by aggregating 43 existing datasets and annotating 441 label descriptions in a question-answering (QA) format. When evaluated on unseen tasks, meta-tuned models outperform a same-sized QA model and the previous SOTA zero-shot learning system based on natural language inference. Additionally, increasing parameter count from 220M to 770M improves AUC-ROC scores by 6.3%, and we forecast that even larger models would perform better. Therefore, measuring zero-shot learning performance on language models out-of-the-box might underestimate their true potential, and community-wide efforts on aggregating datasets and unifying their formats can help build models that answer prompts better.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.