Daily Papers

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Human language processing relies on the brain's capacity for predictive inference. We present a machine learning framework for decoding neural (EEG) responses to dynamic visual language stimuli in Deaf signers. Using coherence between neural signals and optical flow-derived motion features, we construct spatiotemporal representations of predictive neural dynamics. Through entropy-based feature selection, we identify frequency-specific neural signatures that differentiate interpretable linguistic input from linguistically disrupted (time-reversed) stimuli. Our results reveal distributed left-hemispheric and frontal low-frequency coherence as key features in language comprehension, with experience-dependent neural signatures correlating with age. This work demonstrates a novel multimodal approach for probing experience-driven generative models of perception in the brain.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal coverage guarantees, where predictive coverage holds on average over all possible test points, but this is not sufficient for many practical applications where we would like to know that our predictions are valid for a given individual, not merely on average over a population. On the other hand, exact conditional inference guarantees are known to be impossible without imposing assumptions on the underlying distribution. In this work we aim to explore the space in between these two, and examine what types of relaxations of the conditional coverage property would alleviate some of the practical concerns with marginal coverage guarantees while still being possible to achieve in a distribution-free setting.

Early stopping based on hold-out data is a popular regularization technique designed to mitigate overfitting and increase the predictive accuracy of neural networks. Models trained with early stopping often provide relatively accurate predictions, but they generally still lack precise statistical guarantees unless they are further calibrated using independent hold-out data. This paper addresses the above limitation with conformalized early stopping: a novel method that combines early stopping with conformal calibration while efficiently recycling the same hold-out data. This leads to models that are both accurate and able to provide exact predictive inferences without multiple data splits nor overly conservative adjustments. Practical implementations are developed for different learning tasks -- outlier detection, multi-class classification, regression -- and their competitive performance is demonstrated on real data.

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.

Survival analysis is crucial for many medical applications, but remains challenging for modern machine learning due to limited data, censoring, and the heterogeneity of tabular covariates. While the prior-fitted paradigm, which relies on pretraining models on large collections of synthetic datasets, has recently facilitated tabular foundation models for classification and regression, its suitability for time-to-event modeling remains unclear. We propose a flexible survival data generation framework that defines a rich survival prior with explicit control over covariates and time-event distributions. Building on this prior, we introduce Survival In-Context (SIC), a prior-fitted in-context learning model for survival analysis that is pretrained exclusively on synthetic data. SIC is trained to approximate Bayesian posterior predictive inference under the synthetic survival prior, enabling individualized survival prediction in a single forward pass, requiring no task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning. Across a broad evaluation on real-world survival datasets, SIC achieves competitive or superior performance compared to classical and deep survival models, particularly in small and medium-sized data regimes, highlighting the promise of a prior-fitted paradigm for survival analysis. The code and pretrained models will be made available upon publication.

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model fitting algorithm as a function of the data. However, exchangeability is often violated when predictive models are deployed in practice. For example, if the data distribution drifts over time, then the data points are no longer exchangeable; moreover, in such settings, we might want to use a nonsymmetric algorithm that treats recent observations as more relevant. This paper generalizes conformal prediction to deal with both aspects: we employ weighted quantiles to introduce robustness against distribution drift, and design a new randomization technique to allow for algorithms that do not treat data points symmetrically. Our new methods are provably robust, with substantially less loss of coverage when exchangeability is violated due to distribution drift or other challenging features of real data, while also achieving the same coverage guarantees as existing conformal prediction methods if the data points are in fact exchangeable. We demonstrate the practical utility of these new tools with simulations and real-data experiments on electricity and election forecasting.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

Cambrian-S aims to take the first steps towards improving video world models with spatial supersensing by introducing (i) two benchmarks, VSI-Super-Recall (VSR) and VSI-Super-Counting (VSC), and (ii) bespoke predictive sensing inference strategies tailored to each benchmark. In this work, we conduct a critical analysis of Cambrian-S across both these fronts. First, we introduce a simple baseline, NoSense, which discards almost all temporal structure and uses only a bag-of-words SigLIP model, yet near-perfectly solves VSR, achieving 95% accuracy even on 4-hour videos. This shows benchmarks like VSR can be nearly solved without spatial cognition, world modeling or spatial supersensing. Second, we hypothesize that the tailored inference methods proposed by Cambrian-S likely exploit shortcut heuristics in the benchmark. We illustrate this with a simple sanity check on the VSC benchmark, called VSC-Repeat: We concatenate each video with itself 1-5 times, which does not change the number of unique objects. However, this simple perturbation entirely collapses the mean relative accuracy of Cambrian-S from 42% to 0%. A system that performs spatial supersensing and integrates information across experiences should recognize views of the same scene and keep object-count predictions unchanged; instead, Cambrian-S inference algorithm relies largely on a shortcut in the VSC benchmark that rooms are never revisited. Taken together, our findings suggest that (i) current VSI-Super benchmarks do not yet reliably measure spatial supersensing, and (ii) predictive-sensing inference recipes used by Cambrian-S improve performance by inadvertently exploiting shortcuts rather than from robust spatial supersensing. We include the response from the Cambrian-S authors (in Appendix A) to provide a balanced perspective alongside our claims. We release our code at: https://github.com/bethgelab/supersanity

Retrieval-based in-context learning (ICL) enables large language models (LLMs) to predict tabular labels from similar examples, but it remains unclear whether LLM inference improves on direct voting over those same examples. We address this question by comparing four general-purpose LLMs with distance-weighted nearest-neighbor voting (Distance-KNN) using identical retrieved neighbors across 19 tabular classification datasets. With the number of demonstrations fixed, enlarging the retrieval candidate pool improves accuracy for all predictors, yet Distance-KNN achieves the highest mean accuracy at every pool size. More detailed analyses reveal that LLM gains are concentrated where retrieved neighbors exhibit low label consensus and vary across models. These gains further depend on the average feature-space distance to the test query: under low label consensus, some LLMs outperform Distance-KNN in close and intermediate neighborhoods, but all fall behind on average in the most distant group. Complementary experiments on the number of demonstrations, prompt formulation, retrieval representation, and label-balanced demonstration selection largely preserve the overall findings. These results characterize when LLM inference adds predictive value beyond distance-weighted voting in retrieval-based tabular ICL.

The remarkable success of large language models (LLMs) stems from their ability to consolidate vast amounts of knowledge into the memory during pre-training and to retrieve it from the memory during inference, enabling advanced capabilities such as knowledge memorization, instruction-following and reasoning. However, the mechanisms of memory retrieval and consolidation in LLMs remain poorly understood. In this paper, we propose the function token hypothesis to explain the workings of LLMs: During inference, function tokens activate the most predictive features from context and govern next token prediction (memory retrieval). During pre-training, predicting the next tokens (usually content tokens) that follow function tokens increases the number of learned features of LLMs and updates the model parameters (memory consolidation). Function tokens here roughly correspond to function words in linguistics, including punctuation marks, articles, prepositions, and conjunctions, in contrast to content tokens. We provide extensive experimental evidence supporting this hypothesis. Using bipartite graph analysis, we show that a small number of function tokens activate the majority of features. Case studies further reveal how function tokens activate the most predictive features from context to direct next token prediction. We also find that during pre-training, the training loss is dominated by predicting the next content tokens following function tokens, which forces the function tokens to select the most predictive features from context.

Neural architecture search automates neural network design and has achieved state-of-the-art results in many deep learning applications. While recent literature has focused on designing networks to maximize accuracy, little work has been conducted to understand the compatibility of architecture design spaces to varying hardware. In this paper, we analyze the neural blocks used to build Once-for-All (MobileNetV3), ProxylessNAS and ResNet families, in order to understand their predictive power and inference latency on various devices, including Huawei Kirin 9000 NPU, RTX 2080 Ti, AMD Threadripper 2990WX, and Samsung Note10. We introduce a methodology to quantify the friendliness of neural blocks to hardware and the impact of their placement in a macro network on overall network performance via only end-to-end measurements. Based on extensive profiling results, we derive design insights and apply them to hardware-specific search space reduction. We show that searching in the reduced search space generates better accuracy-latency Pareto frontiers than searching in the original search spaces, customizing architecture search according to the hardware. Moreover, insights derived from measurements lead to notably higher ImageNet top-1 scores on all search spaces investigated.

This monograph develops a unified account of training and inference in Power Law Decoder Representation language models (PLDR-LLMs). Exact finite work identities decompose changes in the absolute energy of the row-centered learned map into parameter contributions, signed interactions, and numerical observation defects. Positive affine blocking retains restarts at the row-constant face, while the augmented AdamW state supplies the complete dynamical description. Predictive renormalization acts on the complete conditional training law for a single pass over distinct corpus target blocks, retaining optimizer memory, remaining data, schedule, and numerical policy. Autonomous reductions require closure; approximate reductions carry successor and emission errors. Finite-population covariance, matched physical clocks, matrix fluxes, and signed temporal energy connect row dynamics to model-wide observations. Absolute row collapse, relative row concentration, operator stabilization, and predictive accuracy are distinguished. Experiments reveal observer and optimizer dependence, reject the tested autonomous row-state candidates, and support finite conditional prediction and state-specific operator reduction. Independent single-pass families exhibit moving finite fluctuation regions without establishing a thermodynamic critical class. Conditional symmetry, head limits, covariance flows, and readout error budgets specify assumptions needed to transfer scaling laws to inference. The theory separates exact identities, conditional dynamical claims, and finite empirical findings, with proofs, selected formal checks, and compact numerical evidence.

Long-context inference enhances the reasoning capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), but incurs significant computational overhead. Token-oriented methods, such as pruning and skipping, have shown great promise in reducing inference latency, yet still suffer from inherently insufficient structure optimization, outdated selection criteria, and redundancy interference, resulting in suboptimal speed-accuracy trade-off. To address these issues, we propose a novel training-free framework dubbed Self-Predictive Token Skipping (SPTS), for efficient long-context LLM inference. Specifically, motivated by probing the influence of target layers prior to skipping, we design two selective token skipping strategies for typical structures, including Partial Attention Probing (PAP) for multi-head attention and Low-rank Transformation Probing (LTP) for feed forward network. The former selects informative tokens via partial forward attention computation, while the latter constructs a low-rank proxy network to predict token transformations. In addition, a Multi-Stage Delayed Pruning (MSDP) strategy reallocates skipping budgets and progressively removes redundant tokens across layers. Extensive experiments display the effectiveness of our method, achieving up to 2.46times and 2.29times speedups for prefilling and end-to-end generation, respectively, while maintaining state-of-the-art accuracy. We will release the source code upon acceptance.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) re-encode the entire prefix at every denoising step, causing recomputation that scales quadratically with context length and becomes prohibitive for long-context scenarios. We propose Prefilling-dLLM, a training-free prefill-decode disaggregation framework for dLLMs that partitions the prefix into N chunks, caches their KV representations once, and selects the top-K most relevant chunks with intra-chunk token sparsity for decoding, showing that sparse prefilling can outperform dense attention while reducing per-step complexity from quadratic in the full sequence length to quadratic only in the decode length. On LongBench and InfiniteBench, Prefilling-dLLM achieves state-of-the-art quality among dLLM acceleration methods, and an attention kernel that parallelizes decoding over the non-contiguously cached chunk KV yields 9.1--28.0x speedup at 8K--32K contexts. We further show that beginning-of-sequence tokens prepended to each chunk act as periodic attention anchors that eliminate the lost-in-the-middle phenomenon. Code is available at https://github.com/menik1126/Prefilling-dLLM.

Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this characterization is incomplete: while MFVI underestimates the variance in parameter space, it can overestimate the predictive variance compared to the exact posterior. We show that if the MFVI posterior underestimates predictive variances in some directions, it necessarily overestimates them in others. Crucially, this overestimation occurs in directions where the training data concentrates. This leads to the surprising result that, for a test point drawn from the training distribution, MFVI's expected predictive variance exceeds that of the exact posterior. We demonstrate a pathological case of this effect, where the MFVI posterior fails to reduce predictive variance compared to the prior on in distribution data. We connect these results to the Cold Posterior Effect, arguing that varying the temperature can correct this overestimation, yielding predictions closer to those of the exact posterior. We validate our theory on synthetic and real-world regression tasks.

We propose a plug-and-play framework for speech enhancement and separation that augments predictive methods with a generative speech prior. Our approach, termed Stochastic Interpolant Prior for Speech (SIPS), builds on stochastic interpolants and leverages their flexibility to bridge predictive and generative modeling. Specifically, we decompose the interpolation dynamics into a task-specific drift and a stochastic denoising component, allowing a predictive estimate to be integrated directly into the generative sampling process. This results in a mathematically grounded framework for combining strong pretrained predictors with the expressive power of generative models. To this end, we train a score model using only clean speech, yielding a degradation-agnostic prior that can be reused across tasks. During inference, the predictor provides a deterministic drift that steers the sampling process toward a task-consistent estimate, while the score model preserves perceptual naturalness. Unlike prior hybrid approaches, which typically rely on architecture-specific conditioning and are tied to particular predictors or degradation settings, SIPS provides a unified framework that generalizes across predictors and additive degradation tasks. We demonstrate its effectiveness for both speech enhancement and speech separation using recent predictors such as SEMamba and FlexIO. The proposed method consistently improves perceptual quality, achieving gains up +1.0 NISQA for speech separation.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

Modern Text-to-Image (T2I) generation increasingly relies on token-centric architectures that are trained with self-supervision, yet effectively fusing text with visual tokens remains a challenge. We propose JEPA-T, a unified multimodal framework that encodes images and captions into discrete visual and textual tokens, processed by a joint-embedding predictive Transformer. To enhance fusion, we incorporate cross-attention after the feature predictor for conditional denoising while maintaining a task-agnostic backbone. Additionally, raw texts embeddings are injected prior to the flow matching loss to improve alignment during training. During inference, the same network performs both class-conditional and free-text image generation by iteratively denoising visual tokens conditioned on text. Evaluations on ImageNet-1K demonstrate that JEPA-T achieves strong data efficiency, open-vocabulary generalization, and consistently outperforms non-fusion and late-fusion baselines. Our approach shows that late architectural fusion combined with objective-level alignment offers an effective balance between conditioning strength and backbone generality in token-based T2I.The code is now available: https://github.com/justin-herry/JEPA-T.git

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

We introduce VL-JEPA, a vision-language model built on a Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA). Instead of autoregressively generating tokens as in classical VLMs, VL-JEPA predicts continuous embeddings of the target texts. By learning in an abstract representation space, the model focuses on task-relevant semantics while abstracting away surface-level linguistic variability. In a strictly controlled comparison against standard token-space VLM training with the same vision encoder and training data, VL-JEPA achieves stronger performance while having 50% fewer trainable parameters. At inference time, a lightweight text decoder is invoked only when needed to translate VL-JEPA predicted embeddings into text. We show that VL-JEPA natively supports selective decoding that reduces the number of decoding operations by 2.85x while maintaining similar performance compared to non-adaptive uniform decoding. Beyond generation, the VL-JEPA's embedding space naturally supports open-vocabulary classification, text-to-video retrieval, and discriminative VQA without any architecture modification. On eight video classification and eight video retrieval datasets, the average performance VL-JEPA surpasses that of CLIP, SigLIP2, and Perception Encoder. At the same time, the model achieves comparable performance as classical VLMs (InstructBLIP, QwenVL) on four VQA datasets: GQA, TallyQA, POPE and POPEv2, despite only having 1.6B parameters.

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the uncertainty of model outputs has received relatively little attention. We adapt the popular Shapley value framework to explain various types of predictive uncertainty, quantifying each feature's contribution to the conditional entropy of individual model outputs. We consider games with modified characteristic functions and find deep connections between the resulting Shapley values and fundamental quantities from information theory and conditional independence testing. We outline inference procedures for finite sample error rate control with provable guarantees, and implement efficient algorithms that perform well in a range of experiments on real and simulated data. Our method has applications to covariate shift detection, active learning, feature selection, and active feature-value acquisition.

Despite the recent success of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), existing approaches predominantly assume the availability of multiple modalities during training and inference. In practice, multimodal data is often incomplete because modalities may be missing, collected asynchronously, or available only for a subset of examples. In this work, we propose PRIMO, a supervised latent-variable imputation model that quantifies the predictive impact of any missing modality within the multimodal learning setting. PRIMO enables the use of all available training examples, whether modalities are complete or partial. Specifically, it models the missing modality through a latent variable that captures its relationship with the observed modality in the context of prediction. During inference, we draw many samples from the learned distribution over the missing modality to both obtain the marginal predictive distribution (for the purpose of prediction) and analyze the impact of the missing modalities on the prediction for each instance. We evaluate PRIMO on a synthetic XOR dataset, Audio-Vision MNIST, and MIMIC-III for mortality and ICD-9 prediction. Across all datasets, PRIMO obtains performance comparable to unimodal baselines when a modality is fully missing and to multimodal baselines when all modalities are available. PRIMO quantifies the predictive impact of a modality at the instance level using a variance-based metric computed from predictions across latent completions. We visually demonstrate how varying completions of the missing modality result in a set of plausible labels.

Most vehicle predictive maintenance systems rely exclusively on internal diagnostic signals and are validated on deterministic synthetic data, limiting the credibility of reported metrics. This paper presents a simulation-validated proof-of-concept framework for V2X-augmented predictive maintenance, integrating on-board sensor streams with external contextual signals -- road quality, weather, traffic density, and driver behaviour -- acquired via V2X communication and third-party APIs, with inference at the vehicle edge. Field validation on instrumented vehicles is identified as the required next step. Three experiments address common shortcomings of prior work. A feature group ablation study shows that V2X contextual features contribute a 2.6-point F1 gain, with full context removal reducing macro F1 from 0.855 to 0.807. On the AI4I 2020 real-world industrial failure dataset (10,000 samples, five failure modes), LightGBM achieves AUC-ROC of 0.973 under 5-fold stratified CV with SMOTE confined to training folds. A noise sensitivity analysis shows macro F1 remains above 0.88 under low noise and degrades to 0.74 under very high noise. SHAP analysis confirms that V2X and engineered interaction features rank among the top 15 predictors. Edge inference is estimated to reduce latency from 3.5s to under 1.0s versus cloud-only processing.

Serial LLM inference backends -- such as Ollama -- process requests one at a time under FCFS admission, causing Head-of-Line Blocking (HOLB) under mixed workloads at high utilisation: short factual queries can be delayed by minutes behind long generation jobs. While cloud-scale deployments mitigate HOLB via continuous batching (vLLM, Orca), these solutions require tens of GB of VRAM for concurrent KV-caches -- infeasible for memory-constrained edge and local deployments that rely on serial request dispatch. We present \clairvoyant, a drop-in sidecar proxy for any serial OpenAI-compatible backend (e.g., Ollama, llama.cpp). \clairvoyant predicts response length from 19 lightweight lexical features via an ONNX-exported XGBoost classifier, achieving 0.029\,ms per-request latency (four orders of magnitude below typical generation time). Because admission scheduling depends on relative ordering rather than exact prediction, the system optimises ranking fidelity, achieving 62--96\% in-distribution and 52--66\% cross-distribution accuracy across natural conversation datasets. We find that curated instruction datasets are degenerate training sources for length prediction: GPT-imposed brevity constraints reduce Long-class representation to under 0.02\% of examples, making natural conversation logs the only viable training source. End-to-end GPU benchmarks on an RTX~4090 show 70--76\% P50 latency reduction for short requests under maximum queue pressure (100 concurrent requests) and 17\% under steady-state Poisson arrivals (ρ=0.74). \clairvoyant is open-source and requires no modifications to the inference backend.

Single-cell trajectory inference maps transcriptomic measurements onto developmental continua, yet configurations that fit the data equally well can assign conflicting cell fates. FateMultiplicity is a label-free framework that constructs a statistically admissible model set, or Rashomon set, without lineage labels, by evaluating model discrepancy on cross-fitted held-out genes under non-inferiority testing calibrated against random-seed variation. Multiplicity is large and depends more on the diversity of the model space than its size: twelve configurations of a second algorithm expose 20.0% of cells where twenty-four of the first expose 3.8%. Whether the per-cell certified fate margin FM yields more reliable assignments than the fitted model already provides is then tested, and it does not. On simulation ground truth, on the same cells, FM discriminates misassignment at AUC 0.682, against 0.965 for the baseline configuration's own decision margin (p = 0.003) and 0.854 for a seed-dispersion baseline. Informativeness is governed by the breadth of the admitted set, not its cardinality: at cardinality four, seed refits give 0.933 and hyperparameter-perturbed sets 0.701. Relaxing the infimum to a q-quantile recovers discrimination but converges toward the single model's own confidence; the supremum reaches 0.973 because theta*'s membership bounds it from below, while the infimum is unanchored. Multiplicity in trajectory inference is worth measuring and reporting, but per-cell certification over a label-free Rashomon set is not a route to more reliable fate calls. Two constructions survive: a margin-erosion ratio separates real from spurious branch points in simulation (AUC 0.890, untested on real data), and against clonally observed fate, uncertified cells disagree with their clone's outcome 16.4 percentage points more often than certified cells (p < 0.001).

Large Language Model (LLM) inference workloads are a rapidly growing contributor to data center energy consumption. Optimizing these deployments requires matching specific LLMs to the most efficient GPUs, but operators currently lack the tools to do so without exhaustively profiling each combination. While some predictive models exist, they still require profiling data and struggle to generalize to hardware unseen during training. To address this, we introduce WattGPU, featuring two predictive models for mean GPU power draw and Inter-Token Latency (ITL). Our approach leverages only publicly available LLM metadata and GPU specifications, eliminating the need for hardware access or profiling while enabling generalization to unseen NVIDIA server-grade GPUs and LLMs. We evaluate our models using rigorous leave-one-GPU-out and leave-one-LLM-out cross-validation on a dataset of 42 open-source LLMs (0.1B--27B parameters) and 8 GPUs under both offline and server scenarios. The mean power draw model achieves a median absolute percentage error of leq3.4% for offline and leq13.5% for server scenarios on unseen GPUs, while the latency model achieves leq8.5% in server mode, both maintaining strong GPU ranking correlations for server scenarios (Kendall τgeq0.76). Compared to standard physically grounded baselines -- Load-Scaled Thermal Design Power (TDP) for power draw and roofline for latency -- our models reduce median absolute percentage error by approximately 4times on unseen LLM-GPU combinations for server scenarios or approximately 2times for completely unseen GPUs. WattGPU's data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/maufadel/wattgpu.

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and derived quantities such as quantiles, which coherently quantifies the epistemic uncertainty on any target estimand of interest. As the predictive recursions are based on an underlying nonparametric model (a Dirichlet process mixture model), our method naturally inherits robustness with respect to restrictive parametric assumptions. In addition, implementation of our method is typically very fast. This approach can be applied to marginal or conditional counterfactual distributions and is easily extended to an instrumental variables setup. Using the concept of almost conditionally identically distributed random variables, we prove convergence of the martingale posterior inference on the counterfactual outcome distributions for the causal models considered in the paper. We illustrate our approach on both simulated and real data. Using the latter, we investigate the effect of zinc lozenges on common cold duration, the impact of vitamin A supplementation on children's survival rates with one-sided non-compliance (analysed in Imbens and Rubin, 1997a) and the effect of job training (LaLonde, 1986).

The autoregressive nature of conventional large language models (LLMs) inherently limits inference speed, as tokens are generated sequentially. While speculative and parallel decoding techniques attempt to mitigate this, they face limitations: either relying on less accurate smaller models for generation or failing to fully leverage the base LLM's representations. We introduce a novel architecture, Tandem transformers, to address these issues. This architecture uniquely combines (1) a small autoregressive model and (2) a large model operating in block mode (processing multiple tokens simultaneously). The small model's predictive accuracy is substantially enhanced by granting it attention to the large model's richer representations. On the PaLM2 pretraining dataset, a tandem of PaLM2-Bison and PaLM2-Gecko demonstrates a 3.3% improvement in next-token prediction accuracy over a standalone PaLM2-Gecko, offering a 1.16x speedup compared to a PaLM2-Otter model with comparable downstream performance. We further incorporate the tandem model within the speculative decoding (SPEED) framework where the large model validates tokens from the small model. This ensures that the Tandem of PaLM2-Bison and PaLM2-Gecko achieves substantial speedup (around 1.14x faster than using vanilla PaLM2-Gecko in SPEED) while maintaining identical downstream task accuracy.

Intelligent tutoring systems optimize the selection and timing of learning materials to enhance understanding and long-term retention. This requires estimates of both the learner's progress (''knowledge tracing''; KT), and the prerequisite structure of the learning domain (''knowledge mapping''). While recent deep learning models achieve high KT accuracy, they do so at the expense of the interpretability of psychologically-inspired models. In this work, we present a solution to this trade-off. PSI-KT is a hierarchical generative approach that explicitly models how both individual cognitive traits and the prerequisite structure of knowledge influence learning dynamics, thus achieving interpretability by design. Moreover, by using scalable Bayesian inference, PSI-KT targets the real-world need for efficient personalization even with a growing body of learners and learning histories. Evaluated on three datasets from online learning platforms, PSI-KT achieves superior multi-step predictive accuracy and scalable inference in continual-learning settings, all while providing interpretable representations of learner-specific traits and the prerequisite structure of knowledge that causally supports learning. In sum, predictive, scalable and interpretable knowledge tracing with solid knowledge mapping lays a key foundation for effective personalized learning to make education accessible to a broad, global audience.

Reinforcement learning enhances the reasoning capabilities of large language models but often involves high computational costs due to rollout-intensive optimization. Online prompt selection presents a plausible solution by prioritizing informative prompts to improve training efficiency. However, current methods either depend on costly, exact evaluations or construct prompt-specific predictive models lacking generalization across prompts. This study introduces Generalizable Predictive Prompt Selection (GPS), which performs Bayesian inference towards prompt difficulty using a lightweight generative model trained on the shared optimization history. Intermediate-difficulty prioritization and history-anchored diversity are incorporated into the batch acquisition principle to select informative prompt batches. The small predictive model also generalizes at test-time for efficient computational allocation. Experiments across varied reasoning benchmarks indicate GPS's substantial improvements in training efficiency, final performance, and test-time efficiency over superior baseline methods.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have advanced zero-shot end-to-end Vision-Language Navigation (VLN), yet robust navigation requires not only semantic understanding but also predictive modeling of environment dynamics and spatial structure. We propose PROSPECT, a unified streaming navigation agent that couples a streaming Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policy with latent predictive representation learning. PROSPECT uses CUT3R as a streaming 3D foundation spatial encoder to produce long-context, absolute-scale spatial features, and fuses them with SigLIP semantic features via cross-attention. During training, we introduce learnable stream query tokens that query the streaming context and predict next-step 2D and 3D latent features (rather than pixels or explicit modalities), supervised in the latent spaces of frozen SigLIP and CUT3R teachers. The predictive branch shapes internal representations without inference overhead. Experiments on VLN-CE benchmarks and real-robot deployment demonstrate state-of-the-art performance and improved long-horizon robustness under diverse lighting. We will release code for the community soon.

Building predictive models for companies often relies on inference using historical data of companies in the same industry sector. However, companies are similar across a variety of dimensions that should be leveraged in relevant prediction problems. This is particularly true for large, complex organizations which may not be well defined by a single industry and have no clear peers. To enable prediction using company information across a variety of dimensions, we create an embedding of company stocks, Stock2Vec, which can be easily added to any prediction model that applies to companies with associated stock prices. We describe the process of creating this rich vector representation from stock price fluctuations, and characterize what the dimensions represent. We then conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate this embedding in applied machine learning problems in various business contexts. Our experiment results demonstrate that the four features in the Stock2Vec embedding can readily augment existing cross-company models and enhance cross-company predictions.

We present PEEK, a lightweight scheduling and eviction framework for both online (streaming) and offline (batch) LLM serving; this paper focuses on the online regime. PEEK maintains an incremental radix tree over the pending queue, exposing prefix-sharing clusters no existing engine surfaces. A low-overhead dual-walk matches the tree against the engine's prefix cache to yield longest-prefix-match for every waiting request; PEEK then admits cluster pioneers first so siblings inherit the freshly cached prefix, a co-designed eviction hook protects blocks ancestral to queued demand, and a multi-lane stride scheduler bounds starvation. On SGLang and vLLM across five workloads up to 4timesH100 (DP=2 over TP=2), PEEK delivers up to 3.0times/2.6times cache hit, 7.9times/7.1times TTFT, 6.7times/5.5times E2E, and 3.6times/4.5times throughput gains over each engine's strongest stock baseline (SGLang/vLLM), while matching baselines within noise on workloads with no exploitable prefix structure. Wins hold as KV-cache pressure and inference parallelism scale.

Self-supervised speech representations have been shown to be effective in a variety of speech applications. However, existing representation learning methods generally rely on the autoregressive model and/or observed global dependencies while generating the representation. In this work, we propose Non-Autoregressive Predictive Coding (NPC), a self-supervised method, to learn a speech representation in a non-autoregressive manner by relying only on local dependencies of speech. NPC has a conceptually simple objective and can be implemented easily with the introduced Masked Convolution Blocks. NPC offers a significant speedup for inference since it is parallelizable in time and has a fixed inference time for each time step regardless of the input sequence length. We discuss and verify the effectiveness of NPC by theoretically and empirically comparing it with other methods. We show that the NPC representation is comparable to other methods in speech experiments on phonetic and speaker classification while being more efficient.

Self-supervised learning methods overcome the key bottleneck for building more capable AI: limited availability of labeled data. However, one of the drawbacks of self-supervised architectures is that the representations that they learn are implicit and it is hard to extract meaningful information about the encoded world states, such as 3D structure of the visual scene encoded in a depth map. Moreover, in the visual domain such representations only rarely undergo evaluations that may be critical for downstream tasks, such as vision for autonomous cars. Herein, we propose a framework for evaluating visual representations for illumination invariance in the context of depth perception. We develop a new predictive coding-based architecture and a hybrid fully-supervised/self-supervised learning method. We propose a novel architecture that extends the predictive coding approach: PRedictive Lateral bottom-Up and top-Down Encoder-decoder Network (PreludeNet), which explicitly learns to infer and predict depth from video frames. In PreludeNet, the encoder's stack of predictive coding layers is trained in a self-supervised manner, while the predictive decoder is trained in a supervised manner to infer or predict the depth. We evaluate the robustness of our model on a new synthetic dataset, in which lighting conditions (such as overall illumination, and effect of shadows) can be be parametrically adjusted while keeping all other aspects of the world constant. PreludeNet achieves both competitive depth inference performance and next frame prediction accuracy. We also show how this new network architecture, coupled with the hybrid fully-supervised/self-supervised learning method, achieves balance between the said performance and invariance to changes in lighting. The proposed framework for evaluating visual representations can be extended to diverse task domains and invariance tests.

Neural NLP models are often miscalibrated, assigning high confidence to incorrect predictions, which undermines selective prediction and high-stakes deployment. Post-hoc calibration methods adjust output probabilities but leave internal computation unchanged, while ensemble and Bayesian approaches improve uncertainty at substantial training or storage cost. We propose UAT-LITE, an inference-time framework that makes self-attention uncertainty-aware using approximate Bayesian inference via Monte Carlo dropout in pretrained transformer classifiers. Token-level epistemic uncertainty is estimated from stochastic forward passes and used to modulate self-attention during contextualization, without modifying pretrained weights or training objectives. We additionally introduce a layerwise variance decomposition to diagnose how predictive uncertainty accumulates across transformer depth. Across the SQuAD 2.0 answerability, MNLI, and SST-2, UAT-LITE reduces Expected Calibration Error by approximately 20% on average relative to a fine-tuned BERT-base baseline while preserving task accuracy, and improves selective prediction and robustness under distribution shift.

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) underpin a growing family of latent world models for control from raw pixels. Published JEPA world models for pixel-based control (PLDM, DINO-WM, LeWM, V-JEPA-2-AC) each commit at training time to a single inference paradigm, trajectory optimisation in a learned dynamics model, so a checkpoint trained to plan cannot be read off as a policy without retraining. Deferring that choice to inference would let the constraints that bind at deployment, per-step latency and whether a goal observation can be supplied, pick the path. We present Qantara, an end-to-end JEPA of about 21M parameters whose joint training objective pairs a Brownian-bridge interpolant between consecutive clean latents on the state axis with noise-to-data flow matching on the action axis. One checkpoint serves three inference paradigms without retraining: latent planning, behaviour-cloning action sampling, and a video-inverse composition that predicts the next latent without action conditioning, then recovers the action bridging the two. Training samples the two noise levels along the edges of the (action-noise, state-noise) square, one edge per inference dispatch, so each path is trained where it is queried. Replacing that sampler with uniform sampling over the square at matched compute drops Push-T planning from 90.1 to 53.3 success rate (SR). On the LeWM control suite at a matched 10-epoch budget, Qantara averages 91.2 SR over the four environments and reaches 93.7 on OGBench-Cube, +7.7 over DINO-WM and +17.0 over LeWM, each measured against the stronger of that baseline's published score and our retrain of it. From the same weights the two goal-blind paths, which receive no goal image, reach 82.1-83.2 SR on Push-T and 70.8-72.8 on Cube at roughly 15-65x lower inference cost, and fall to near-noise on Reacher, whose released training corpus comes from a random policy.

Recent advances in Neural Variational Inference allowed for a renaissance in latent variable models in a variety of domains involving high-dimensional data. While traditional variational methods derive an analytical approximation for the intractable distribution over the latent variables, here we construct an inference network conditioned on the symbolic representation of entities and relation types in the Knowledge Graph, to provide the variational distributions. The new framework results in a highly-scalable method. Under a Bernoulli sampling framework, we provide an alternative justification for commonly used techniques in large-scale stochastic variational inference, which drastically reduce training time at a cost of an additional approximation to the variational lower bound. We introduce two models from this highly scalable probabilistic framework, namely the Latent Information and Latent Fact models, for reasoning over knowledge graph-based representations. Our Latent Information and Latent Fact models improve upon baseline performance under certain conditions. We use the learnt embedding variance to estimate predictive uncertainty during link prediction, and discuss the quality of these learnt uncertainty estimates. Our source code and datasets are publicly available online at https://github.com/alexanderimanicowenrivers/Neural-Variational-Knowledge-Graphs.

Existing geometry-aware Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) increasingly rely on external 3D encoders to provide structural priors, but executing these additional encoder paths at inference introduces substantial latency and computational overhead. We propose GeoThinker-F, an efficient framework that internalizes spatiotemporal perception by transforming causal MLLM hidden states into predictive latent world representations. Our key insight is that intermediate semantic representations contain sufficient information to predict useful representations of current geometry and future semantics, without requiring an exact reproduction of features from a dedicated 3D encoder. To realize this idea, GeoThinker-F adopts a decoupled two-stage training strategy. In the first stage, the MLLM backbone is frozen while lightweight Latent Frame Prediction (LFP) heads learn from an offline 3D geometry expert and next-frame semantic targets. In the second stage, the external expert is removed, and the model is jointly optimized to generate and selectively integrate its self-predicted priors through a specialized Spatial-Grounded Temporal (SGT) Fusion module. Extensive evaluations show that GeoThinker-F eliminates runtime dependence on external 3D geometry encoders while maintaining competitive performance across diverse spatial intelligence benchmarks. It achieves up to a 3.6times inference speedup, reducing latency from 1.45,s to 0.40,s while retaining strong spatial reasoning performance.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a specific sample was used to train a predictive model. Knowing this may indeed lead to a privacy breach. Most MIAs, however, make use of the model's prediction scores - the probability of each output given some input - following the intuition that the trained model tends to behave differently on its training data. We argue that this is a fallacy for many modern deep network architectures. Consequently, MIAs will miserably fail since overconfidence leads to high false-positive rates not only on known domains but also on out-of-distribution data and implicitly acts as a defense against MIAs. Specifically, using generative adversarial networks, we are able to produce a potentially infinite number of samples falsely classified as part of the training data. In other words, the threat of MIAs is overestimated, and less information is leaked than previously assumed. Moreover, there is actually a trade-off between the overconfidence of models and their susceptibility to MIAs: the more classifiers know when they do not know, making low confidence predictions, the more they reveal the training data.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at function calling, but inference scaling has been explored mainly for unstructured generation. We propose an inference-scaling framework for structured outputs that combines fine-grained beam search with ToolPRM, a process reward model scoring each intra-call decision (function name and argument filling). We build the first fine-grained intra-call supervision dataset via function masking, rollout collection, and step-level annotation. ToolPRM outperforms outcome and coarse-grained reward models in predictive accuracy and yields consistent test-time gains on multiple function-calling benchmarks. We further show that structured generation follows ``explore more but retain less'', since early JSON errors are unrecoverable.

World-action models (WAMs) couple predictive visual modeling with action generation, typically relying on iterative denoising with a fixed denoising steps. However, manipulation tasks contain actions chunks with varying sensitivity to generation errors: critical actions require precision, while less sensitive actions allow faster generation with fewer denoising steps. Here we introduce AnyStep World Action Model, a general framework for tunable-budget prediction and scene-dependent computation allocation. Our budget-aligned teacher-trajectory distillation trains interval-conditioned flow maps using explicit frozen-teacher transitions and shared low-rank adapters, supporting action generation from one-step prediction to multi-step refinement. Building on this capability, a lightweight risk-benefit scheduler predicts teacher-curvature-based difficulty and budget-specific student-teacher fidelity from a single one-step preview, selecting the smallest budget predicted to satisfy risk-adaptive fidelity requirements. We evaluate our framework on three widely used WAMs Motus, FastWAM, and LingBotVA using RoboTwin 2.0. Our method reduces average denoising steps by 60.2%, 49.8%, and 85.28%, respectively, while maintaining baseline task success rates. In particular, our AnyStep training substantially improves model performance under a one-step denoising budget, increasing task success rates by 7.07%, 12.08%, and 8.94% on Motus, FastWAM, and LingBotVA, respectively. Experiments on six real-world manipulation tasks further validate its effectiveness.

Evaluating software agents on a full benchmark is expensive. A small task subset can preserve agent rankings while yielding inaccurate scores. Historical responses provide useful structure, but tasks with identical source responses can have different outcomes for a new target agent. We introduce Hierarchical Score Posterior Recovery (HSPR), which combines source-fitted response factors with uncertain group success rates. Observed target outcomes update the posteriors over the target latent state and group rates; posterior-guided acquisition selects subsequent tasks. Its score-based criterion equals the expected one-step reduction in full-score posterior variance. Observed successes and posterior-predictive counts for unqueried tasks yield a full-score posterior. The final estimate uses its median with source-selected calibration. At a 10% task budget on four task banks from the SWE-bench family, HSPR achieves the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) on three banks and the lowest maximum absolute error (MaxErr) on all four among the methods compared. Removing group uncertainty or replacing adaptive queries increases macro MAE in the respective controls. Macro MAE decreases across 5-20% budgets.

Cinematic video generation requires both temporal inference from limited inputs (i.e., sparse rather than frame-by-frame guidance) and factor-aware control of character, scene, action, and camera. Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) offer useful priors for both capabilities, but their representations are not automatically actionable for video generation: a Video Diffusion Transformer (DiT) may bypass them through native conditioning pathways, and using them does not ensure either factor-aware control or generation-compatible temporal prediction. We propose Factor-Aware Predictive Learning (FAPL), which establishes effective MLLM latent use as a shared prerequisite and then targets the two capabilities with complementary learning signals. First, latent-only generator grounding trains the DiT with a frozen MLLM and connector, strengthening the DiT's use of MLLM latents for generation. Second, for factor-aware control, paired videos specify a target-factor change and non-target preservation, and factor-span replacement trains the DiT to realize this relationship in its output. Third, for temporal inference, text-only and text-plus-complete-video observations share a video target, and the trained DiT is then frozen while the MLLM and connector are optimized through it. This final stage trains limited-input representations for generation while retaining complete-observation reconstruction as a complementary training mode. Extensive experiments demonstrate our consistently better performance on three cinematic video generation tasks (i.e., sparse-to-video, factor-aware editing, and multi-shot generation) over baselines and validate FAPL's contributions to MLLM feature use, temporal control, and factor coordination.

This paper provides an experimentally verified formal law for calculating the uplift that diversity of thought provides in Large Language Model (LLM) ensembles. From first principles, we derive an exact decomposition of LLM ensemble lift into rescue and damage masses, which yields a compact heuristic for calculating uplift. From this we extract the metrics which predict ensemble performance: an accuracy adjusted correctness correlation, ϕ_{adj}, together with the accuracy gap and collective accuracy of the pair. We test the law on 767,520 inferences from ten open-weight models over two graduate-level science benchmarks, together with a novel agentic cybersecurity benchmark in which each model conducts digital-forensics investigations by multi-turn tool use in a network-isolated sandbox (23,520 graded trials including abstentions); all votes are released openly. Calibrated once on SuperGPQA at a 40:60 vote split, the heuristic predicts lift on the calibration set with Spearman's ρ=0.84 and, with its coefficients frozen, transfers to two datasets never used in calibration (ρ=0.51 on GPQA Diamond and 0.84 on the forensic tasks), whilst the measured swap mass tracks realised lift with R^2ge 0.96 throughout. Raw ϕ has almost no predictive power (R^2le 0.09 throughout); the accuracy-adjusted ϕ_{adj} is markedly superior (R^2=0.67 on SuperGPQA), and the heuristic combining these metrics is the most stable pre pooling predictor across the three datasets.

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between the model parameters and latent variables while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that as a result, in the limit of infinite data, the posterior mode over the network weights and latent variables is asymptotically biased away from the ground-truth. Due to this asymptotic bias, traditional inference methods may in practice yield parameters that generalize poorly and misestimate uncertainty. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high-quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real data-sets.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

The inductive bias of a graph neural network (GNN) is largely encoded in its specified graph. Latent graph inference relies on latent geometric representations to dynamically rewire or infer a GNN's graph to maximize the GNN's predictive downstream performance, but it lacks solid theoretical foundations in terms of embedding-based representation guarantees. This paper addresses this issue by introducing a trainable deep learning architecture, coined neural snowflake, that can adaptively implement fractal-like metrics on R^d. We prove that any given finite weights graph can be isometrically embedded by a standard MLP encoder. Furthermore, when the latent graph can be represented in the feature space of a sufficiently regular kernel, we show that the combined neural snowflake and MLP encoder do not succumb to the curse of dimensionality by using only a low-degree polynomial number of parameters in the number of nodes. This implementation enables a low-dimensional isometric embedding of the latent graph. We conduct synthetic experiments to demonstrate the superior metric learning capabilities of neural snowflakes when compared to more familiar spaces like Euclidean space. Additionally, we carry out latent graph inference experiments on graph benchmarks. Consistently, the neural snowflake model achieves predictive performance that either matches or surpasses that of the state-of-the-art latent graph inference models. Importantly, this performance improvement is achieved without requiring random search for optimal latent geometry. Instead, the neural snowflake model achieves this enhancement in a differentiable manner.

A key challenge in neural architecture search (NAS) is quickly inferring the predictive performance of a broad spectrum of networks to discover statistically accurate and computationally efficient ones. We refer to this task as model performance inference (MPI). The current practice for efficient MPI is gradient-based methods that leverage the gradients of a network at initialization to infer its performance. However, existing gradient-based methods rely only on heuristic metrics and lack the necessary theoretical foundations to consolidate their designs. We propose GradSign, an accurate, simple, and flexible metric for model performance inference with theoretical insights. The key idea behind GradSign is a quantity {\Psi} to analyze the optimization landscape of different networks at the granularity of individual training samples. Theoretically, we show that both the network's training and true population losses are proportionally upper-bounded by {\Psi} under reasonable assumptions. In addition, we design GradSign, an accurate and simple approximation of {\Psi} using the gradients of a network evaluated at a random initialization state. Evaluation on seven NAS benchmarks across three training datasets shows that GradSign generalizes well to real-world networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art gradient-based methods for MPI evaluated by Spearman's {\rho} and Kendall's Tau. Additionally, we integrate GradSign into four existing NAS algorithms and show that the GradSign-assisted NAS algorithms outperform their vanilla counterparts by improving the accuracies of best-discovered networks by up to 0.3%, 1.1%, and 1.0% on three real-world tasks.

Sparse Mixture of Experts (MoE) models, while outperforming dense Large Language Models (LLMs) in terms of performance, face significant deployment challenges during inference due to their high memory demands. Existing offloading techniques, which involve swapping activated and idle experts between the GPU and CPU, often suffer from rigid expert caching mechanisms. These mechanisms fail to adapt to dynamic routing, leading to inefficient cache utilization, or incur prohibitive costs for prediction training. To tackle these inference-specific challenges, we introduce ExpertFlow, a comprehensive system specifically designed to enhance inference efficiency by accommodating flexible routing and enabling efficient expert scheduling between CPU and GPU. This reduces overhead and boosts system performance. Central to our approach is a predictive routing path-based offloading mechanism that utilizes a lightweight predictor to accurately forecast routing paths before computation begins. This proactive strategy allows for real-time error correction in expert caching, significantly increasing cache hit ratios and reducing the frequency of expert transfers, thereby minimizing I/O overhead. Additionally, we implement a dynamic token scheduling strategy that optimizes MoE inference by rearranging input tokens across different batches. This method not only reduces the number of activated experts per batch but also improves computational efficiency. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that ExpertFlow achieves up to 93.72\% GPU memory savings and enhances inference speed by 2 to 10 times compared to baseline methods, highlighting its effectiveness and utility as a robust solution for resource-constrained inference scenarios.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

With the support of Internet of Things (IoT) devices, it is possible to acquire data from degradation phenomena and design data-driven models to perform anomaly detection in industrial equipment. This approach not only identifies potential anomalies but can also serve as a first step toward building predictive maintenance policies. In this work, we demonstrate a novel anomaly detection system on induction motors used in pumps, compressors, fans, and other industrial machines. This work evaluates a combination of pre-processing techniques and machine learning (ML) models with a low computational cost. We use a combination of pre-processing techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), Wavelet Transform (WT), and binning, which are well-known approaches for extracting features from raw data. We also aim to guarantee an optimal balance between multiple conflicting parameters, such as anomaly detection rate, false positive rate, and inference speed of the solution. To this end, multiobjective optimization and analysis are performed on the evaluated models. Pareto-optimal solutions are presented to select which models have the best results regarding classification metrics and computational effort. Differently from most works in this field that use publicly available datasets to validate their models, we propose an end-to-end solution combining low-cost and readily available IoT sensors. The approach is validated by acquiring a custom dataset from induction motors. Also, we fuse vibration, temperature, and noise data from these sensors as the input to the proposed ML model. Therefore, we aim to propose a methodology general enough to be applied in different industrial contexts in the future.

Reinforcement learning (RL) finetuning has become a key technique for enhancing the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). However, its effectiveness critically depends on the selection of training data. Recent advances underscore the importance of online prompt selection methods, which typically concentrate training on partially solved or moderately challenging examples under the current policy, thereby yielding more effective model updates. While significantly accelerating RL finetuning in terms of training steps, they also incur substantial computational overhead by requiring extensive LLM rollouts over large candidate batches to identify informative samples, an expense that can outweigh the finetuning process itself. To address this challenge, this work proposes Dynamics-Predictive Sampling (DPS), which online predicts and selects informative prompts by inferring their learning dynamics prior to costly rollouts. Specifically, we introduce a new perspective by modeling each prompt's solving progress during RL finetuning as a dynamical system, where the extent of solving is represented as the state and the transition is characterized by a hidden Markov model. Using historical rollout reward signals, we perform online Bayesian inference to estimate evolving state distributions, and the inference outcome provides a predictive prior for efficient prompt selection without rollout-intensive filtering. Empirical results across diverse reasoning tasks, including mathematics, planning, and visual geometry, demonstrate that DPS substantially reduces redundant rollouts, accelerates the training process, and achieves superior reasoning performance.

Embodied Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has significantly enhanced Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, yet current methods rely on rigid templates to specify reasoning primitives (e.g., objects in the scene, high-level plans, structural affordances). These templates can force policies to process irrelevant information that distracts from critical action-prediction signals. This creates a bottleneck: without successful policies, we cannot verify reasoning quality; without quality reasoning, we cannot build robust policies. We introduce R&B-EnCoRe, which enables models to bootstrap embodied reasoning from internet-scale knowledge through self-supervised refinement. By treating reasoning as a latent variable within importance-weighted variational inference, models can generate and distill a refined reasoning training dataset of embodiment-specific strategies without external rewards, verifiers, or human annotation. We validate R&B-EnCoRe across manipulation (Franka Panda in simulation, WidowX in hardware), legged navigation (bipedal, wheeled, bicycle, quadruped), and autonomous driving embodiments using various VLA architectures with 1B, 4B, 7B, and 30B parameters. Our approach achieves 28% gains in manipulation success, 101% improvement in navigation scores, and 21% reduction in collision-rate metric over models that indiscriminately reason about all available primitives. R&B-EnCoRe enables models to distill reasoning that is predictive of successful control, bypassing manual annotation engineering while grounding internet-scale knowledge in physical execution.

Modern sequence models are typically trained at a fixed computational capacity, while real-world applications require deployment across platforms with different resource constraints. Existing approaches either train or distill separate compact models for selected budgets, or use elastic architectures that shrink dimensions such as width, depth, Feed-Forward Network (FFN) size, or SSM state dimension. In this paper, we propose Elastic Spectral State Space Models (ES-SSM), a train-once, export-many sequence modeling framework that gains elasticity through spectral approximation of the SSM sequence operator. ES-SSM builds on Hankel spectral filtering for state space models, where long-range token mixing is represented through fixed Hankel spectral channels that define an operator-level approximation resolution. To make this spectral elasticity reliably deployable, ES-SSM combines input-adaptive channel-wise gates with budget dropout, training the same spectral prefixes that are used by compact models at inference time. This encourages low-index channels to become predictive on their own, while higher-index channels provide refinements for larger budgets. We evaluate ES-SSM across byte-level language modeling, Long Range Arena, Speech Commands V2, and offline reinforcement learning benchmarks. Across these settings, a single trained ES-SSM can be truncated to competitive compact models compared with modern Transformer and SSM baselines at similar parameter scales. Furthermore, by testing under various runtime budgets, we observe smooth and stable quality-cost curves over a wide range of truncation levels.

Foundation models have revolutionized general-purpose problem-solving, offering rapid task adaptation through pretraining, meta-training, and finetuning. Recent crucial advances in these paradigms reveal the importance of challenging task prioritized sampling to enhance adaptation robustness under distribution shifts. However, ranking task difficulties over iteration as a preliminary step typically requires exhaustive task evaluation, which is practically unaffordable in computation and data-annotation. This study provides a novel perspective to illuminate the possibility of leveraging the dual importance of adaptation robustness and learning efficiency, particularly in scenarios where task evaluation is risky or costly, such as iterative agent-environment interactions for robotic policy evaluation or computationally intensive inference steps for finetuning foundation models. Firstly, we introduce Model Predictive Task Sampling (MPTS), a framework that bridges the task space and adaptation risk landscape, providing a theoretical foundation for robust active task sampling. MPTS employs a generative model to characterize the episodic optimization process and predicts task-specific adaptation risk via posterior inference. The resulting risk learner amortizes the costly evaluation of task adaptation performance and provably approximates task difficulty rankings. MPTS seamlessly integrates into zero-shot, few-shot, and supervised finetuning settings. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments in pattern recognition using foundation models and sequential decision-making. Our results demonstrate that MPTS significantly enhances adaptation robustness for tail or out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks and improves learning efficiency compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. The code is available at the project site https://github.com/thu-rllab/MPTS.

Virtual contrast enhancement (VCE) synthesizes enhanced breast MR images from pre-contrast acquisitions. Modern latent generators offer strong image priors, but their bounded natural-image autoencoders conflict with the non-canonical intensity scale of MRI. We show that the upper bound can alter radiomic fidelity before generation, while scaling source and target independently creates a coordinate inconsistency. We propose Predictive Enhancement Calibration (PEC), which represents each pair in a shared, case-adaptive coordinate during training and predicts its unavailable upper endpoint from the pre-contrast image at inference. We integrate PEC with a pretrained FLUX latent flow transformer via parameter-efficient reference conditioning. Target round trips first isolate representation loss before generation; near-matched conditional models then compare PEC with fixed-wide and separate coordinates under comparable training budgets and backbone settings. On the fixed internal MAMA100 development cohort, PEC improves all eight point estimates in this source-only VCE setting, with paired evidence strongest for MSE and LPIPS.\noindentCode: https://github.com/tanlei0/pec-breast-mri-vce

Recent years have seen a phenomenal rise in performance and applications of transformer neural networks. The family of transformer networks, including Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT), Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) and Vision Transformer (ViT), have shown their effectiveness across Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Computer Vision (CV) domains. Transformer-based networks such as ChatGPT have impacted the lives of common men. However, the quest for high predictive performance has led to an exponential increase in transformers' memory and compute footprint. Researchers have proposed techniques to optimize transformer inference at all levels of abstraction. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of techniques for optimizing the inference phase of transformer networks. We survey techniques such as knowledge distillation, pruning, quantization, neural architecture search and lightweight network design at the algorithmic level. We further review hardware-level optimization techniques and the design of novel hardware accelerators for transformers. We summarize the quantitative results on the number of parameters/FLOPs and accuracy of several models/techniques to showcase the tradeoff exercised by them. We also outline future directions in this rapidly evolving field of research. We believe that this survey will educate both novice and seasoned researchers and also spark a plethora of research efforts in this field.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Audio-visual event parsing plays a crucial role in understanding multimodal video content, but existing methods typically rely on offline processing of entire videos with huge model sizes, limiting their real-time applicability. We introduce Online Audio-Visual Event Parsing (On-AVEP), a novel paradigm for parsing audio, visual, and audio-visual events by sequentially analyzing incoming video streams. The On-AVEP task necessitates models with two key capabilities: (1) Accurate online inference, to effectively distinguish events with unclear and limited context in online settings, and (2) Real-time efficiency, to balance high performance with computational constraints. To cultivate these, we propose the Predictive Future Modeling (PreFM) framework featured by (a) predictive multimodal future modeling to infer and integrate beneficial future audio-visual cues, thereby enhancing contextual understanding and (b) modality-agnostic robust representation along with focal temporal prioritization to improve precision and generalization. Extensive experiments on the UnAV-100 and LLP datasets show PreFM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin with significantly fewer parameters, offering an insightful approach for real-time multimodal video understanding. Code is available at https://github.com/XiaoYu-1123/PreFM.

Large Language Models (LLMs), constrained by their auto-regressive nature, suffer from slow decoding. Speculative decoding methods have emerged as a promising solution to accelerate LLM decoding, attracting attention from both systems and AI research communities. Recently, the pursuit of better draft quality has driven a trend toward parametrically larger draft models, which inevitably introduces substantial computational overhead. While existing work attempts to balance the trade-off between prediction accuracy and compute latency, we address this fundamental dilemma through architectural innovation. We propose PRISM, which disaggregates the computation of each predictive step across different parameter sets, refactoring the computational pathways of draft models to successfully decouple model capacity from inference cost. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that PRISM outperforms all existing draft architectures, achieving exceptional acceptance lengths while maintaining minimal draft latency for superior end-to-end speedup. We also re-examine scaling laws with PRISM, revealing that PRISM scales more effectively with expanding data volumes than other draft architectures. Through rigorous and fair comparison, we show that PRISM boosts the decoding throughput of an already highly optimized inference engine by more than 2.6x.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models enable scalable performance but face severe memory constraints on edge devices. Existing offloading strategies struggle with I/O bottlenecks due to the dynamic, low-information nature of autoregressive expert activation. In this paper, we propose to repurpose Speculative Decoding (SD) not merely as a compute accelerator, but as an informative lookahead sensor for memory management, supported by our theoretical and empirical analyses. Hence, we introduce MoE-SpAc, an MoE inference framework that integrates a Speculative Utility Estimator to track expert demand, a Heterogeneous Workload Balancer to dynamically partition computation via online integer optimization, and an Asynchronous Execution Engine to unify the prefetching and eviction in the same utility space. Extensive experiments on seven benchmarks demonstrate that MoE-SpAc achieves a 42% improvement in TPS over the SOTA SD-based baseline, and an average 4.04x speedup over all standard baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/lshAlgorithm/MoE-SpAc .

Large language models (LLMs) now exhibit strong multi-step reasoning abilities, but existing inference-time scaling methods remain computationally expensive, often relying on extensive sampling or external evaluators. We propose a principled strategy that frames reasoning as uncertainty minimisation and operates at the level of individual thoughts rather than tokens. Our method selects, at each reasoning step, the continuation that maximizes the model's self-certainty, a metric computed from its internal predictive distribution. This approach achieves significant improvement with a small number of samples, relies exclusively on model-internal signals, and applies to open-ended questions as opposed to methods like majority voting. Experiments on MATH500 and GSM8K across multiple model sizes demonstrate that thought-level self-certainty maximization consistently outperforms greedy decoding and matches or exceeds self-consistency under comparable token budgets. Cross-linguistic evaluations further indicate that the method transfers robustly beyond high-resource languages. Furthermore, analysis of self-certainty dynamics reveals that correct reasoning trajectories converge early to stable paths, suggesting that early decisions, likely associated with the planning of the reasoning process, are predictive of final accuracy. Building on this result, we show that self-certainty maximisation applied to the early steps can explain most of the performance gain and provide a simple yet efficient inference-time scaling method.

Many critical applications, from autonomous scientific discovery to personalized medicine, demand systems that can both strategically acquire the most informative data and instantaneously perform inference based upon it. While amortized methods for Bayesian inference and experimental design offer part of the solution, neither approach is optimal in the most general and challenging task, where new data needs to be collected for instant inference. To tackle this issue, we introduce the Amortized Active Learning and Inference Engine (ALINE), a unified framework for amortized Bayesian inference and active data acquisition. ALINE leverages a transformer architecture trained via reinforcement learning with a reward based on self-estimated information gain provided by its own integrated inference component. This allows it to strategically query informative data points while simultaneously refining its predictions. Moreover, ALINE can selectively direct its querying strategy towards specific subsets of model parameters or designated predictive tasks, optimizing for posterior estimation, data prediction, or a mixture thereof. Empirical results on regression-based active learning, classical Bayesian experimental design benchmarks, and a psychometric model with selectively targeted parameters demonstrate that ALINE delivers both instant and accurate inference along with efficient selection of informative points.

We introduce GraviBERT, a novel deep learning framework for gravitational wave inference, built on a multi-scale feature extractor with a transformer encoder and a suitable regression head. A key novelty of GraviBERT is its staged training: a BERT-style self-supervised pretraining phase to learn transferable representations, followed by supervised fine-tuning on labeled data. GraviBERT demonstrates consistent transfer learning across detector configurations and waveform models. On in-domain data, pretraining reduces the MAE by up to 31% and accelerates convergence by sim 6.6 times, with mean relative precision for point estimates reaching the few-percent level and MAE in effective spin of sim 10^{-3} at SNR = 10. For domain adaptation to new detector noise profiles, the pretrained model converges up to 15times faster on small target datasets and reduces estimation errors by up to sim 47%, demonstrating detector-agnostic learning. Cross-waveform approximant transfer achieves up to 44% MAE reductions and up to 15times training speedups, with R^2 scores consistently exceeding 0.9 for mass parameters at SNR = 10 compared to 0.74 - 0.87 when training from scratch. GraviBERT works directly with noisy waveforms, and in its current form quantifies predictive uncertainty through MC dropouts. After pretraining, the regression head could be adapted to multiple downstream inference tasks in gravitational-wave astronomy.

An introduction to the emerging fusion of machine learning and causal inference. The book presents ideas from classical structural equation models (SEMs) and their modern AI equivalent, directed acyclical graphs (DAGs) and structural causal models (SCMs), and covers Double/Debiased Machine Learning methods to do inference in such models using modern predictive tools.

Optimizing the deployment of Large language models (LLMs) is expensive today since it requires experimentally running an application workload against an LLM implementation while exploring large configuration space formed by system knobs such as parallelization strategies, batching techniques, and scheduling policies. To address this challenge, we present Vidur - a large-scale, high-fidelity, easily-extensible simulation framework for LLM inference performance. Vidur models the performance of LLM operators using a combination of experimental profiling and predictive modeling, and evaluates the end-to-end inference performance for different workloads by estimating several metrics of interest such as latency and throughput. We validate the fidelity of Vidur on several LLMs and show that it estimates inference latency with less than 9% error across the range. Further, we present Vidur-Search, a configuration search tool that helps optimize LLM deployment. Vidur-Search uses Vidur to automatically identify the most cost-effective deployment configuration that meets application performance constraints. For example, Vidur-Search finds the best deployment configuration for LLaMA2-70B in one hour on a CPU machine, in contrast to a deployment-based exploration which would require 42K GPU hours - costing ~218K dollars. Source code for Vidur is available at https://github.com/microsoft/vidur.

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.

Categorical distributions are ubiquitous in machine learning, e.g., in classification, language models, and recommendation systems. However, when the number of possible outcomes is very large, using categorical distributions becomes computationally expensive, as the complexity scales linearly with the number of outcomes. To address this problem, we propose augment and reduce (A&R), a method to alleviate the computational complexity. A&R uses two ideas: latent variable augmentation and stochastic variational inference. It maximizes a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Unlike existing methods which are specific to softmax, A&R is more general and is amenable to other categorical models, such as multinomial probit. On several large-scale classification problems, we show that A&R provides a tighter bound on the marginal likelihood and has better predictive performance than existing approaches.

Large pretrained models, coupled with fine-tuning, are slowly becoming established as the dominant architecture in machine learning. Even though these models offer impressive performance, their practical application is often limited by the prohibitive amount of resources required for every inference. Early-exiting dynamic neural networks (EDNN) circumvent this issue by allowing a model to make some of its predictions from intermediate layers (i.e., early-exit). Training an EDNN architecture is challenging as it consists of two intertwined components: the gating mechanism (GM) that controls early-exiting decisions and the intermediate inference modules (IMs) that perform inference from intermediate representations. As a result, most existing approaches rely on thresholding confidence metrics for the gating mechanism and strive to improve the underlying backbone network and the inference modules. Although successful, this approach has two fundamental shortcomings: 1) the GMs and the IMs are decoupled during training, leading to a train-test mismatch; and 2) the thresholding gating mechanism introduces a positive bias into the predictive probabilities, making it difficult to readily extract uncertainty information. We propose a novel architecture that connects these two modules. This leads to significant performance improvements on classification datasets and enables better uncertainty characterization capabilities.

There has been significant progress in developing neural network architectures that both achieve high predictive performance and that also achieve high application-level inference throughput (e.g., frames per second). Another metric of increasing importance is GPU utilization during inference: the measurement of how well a deployed neural network uses the computational capabilities of the GPU on which it runs. Achieving high GPU utilization is critical to increasing application-level throughput and ensuring a good return on investment for deploying GPUs. This paper analyzes the GPU utilization of convolutional neural network (CNN) inference. We first survey the GPU utilization of CNNs to show that there is room to improve the GPU utilization of many of these CNNs. We then investigate the GPU utilization of networks within a neural architecture search (NAS) search space, and explore how using GPU utilization as a metric could potentially be used to accelerate NAS itself. Our study makes the case that there is room to improve the inference-time GPU utilization of CNNs and that knowledge of GPU utilization has the potential to benefit even applications that do not target utilization itself. We hope that the results of this study will spur future innovation in designing GPU-efficient neural networks.

Inference-Time Scaling has been critical to the success of recent models such as OpenAI o1 and DeepSeek R1. However, many techniques used to train models for inference-time scaling require tasks to have answers that can be verified, limiting their application to domains such as math, coding and logical reasoning. We take inspiration from how humans make first attempts, ask for detailed feedback from others and make improvements based on such feedback across a wide spectrum of open-ended endeavors. To this end, we collect data for and train dedicated Feedback and Edit Models that are capable of performing inference-time scaling for open-ended general-domain tasks. In our setup, one model generates an initial response, which are given feedback by a second model, that are then used by a third model to edit the response. We show that performance on Arena Hard, a benchmark strongly predictive of Chatbot Arena Elo can be boosted by scaling the number of initial response drafts, effective feedback and edited responses. When scaled optimally, our setup based on 70B models from the Llama 3 family can reach SoTA performance on Arena Hard at 92.7 as of 5 Mar 2025, surpassing OpenAI o1-preview-2024-09-12 with 90.4 and DeepSeek R1 with 92.3.

Earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment remain fundamental challenges in geophysics, with existing machine learning approaches often operating as black boxes that ignore established physical laws. We introduce POSEIDON (Physics-Optimized Seismic Energy Inference and Detection Operating Network), a physics-informed energy-based model for unified multi-task seismic event prediction, alongside the Poseidon dataset -- the largest open-source global earthquake catalog comprising 2.8 million events spanning 30 years. POSEIDON embeds fundamental seismological principles, including the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship and Omori-Utsu aftershock decay law, as learnable constraints within an energy-based modeling framework. The architecture simultaneously addresses three interconnected prediction tasks: aftershock sequence identification, tsunami generation potential, and foreshock detection. Extensive experiments demonstrate that POSEIDON achieves state-of-the-art performance across all tasks, outperforming gradient boosting, random forest, and CNN baselines with the highest average F1 score among all compared methods. Crucially, the learned physics parameters converge to scientifically interpretable values -- Gutenberg-Richter b-value of 0.752 and Omori-Utsu parameters p=0.835, c=0.1948 days -- falling within established seismological ranges while enhancing rather than compromising predictive accuracy. The Poseidon dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/BorisKriuk/Poseidon, providing pre-computed energy features, spatial grid indices, and standardized quality metrics to advance physics-informed seismic research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.

We present a data-driven control framework for partial differential equations (PDEs). Our approach integrates Time-Integrated Deep Operator Networks (TI-DeepONets) as differentiable PDE surrogate models within the Differentiable Predictive Control (DPC)-a self-supervised learning framework for constrained neural control policies. The TI-DeepONet architecture learns temporal derivatives and couples them with numerical integrators, while the DPC algorithm uses automatic differentiation to compute policy gradients by backpropagating the expectations of the optimal control loss through the learned TI-DeepONet. This approach enables efficient offline optimization of neural policies without the need for online optimization or supervisory controllers. We empirically demonstrate the proposed method across diverse PDE systems, including the heat, the nonlinear Burgers', and the reaction-diffusion equations. The learned policies achieve target tracking, constraint satisfaction, and curvature minimization objectives, while generalizing across distributions of initial conditions and parameters. Moreover, we demonstrate four orders of magnitude acceleration at inference time compared to nonlinear model predictive control benchmarks. These results highlight the promise of operator learning for scalable model-based control of PDEs.

Predictive coding (PC) is a local-learning alternative to backpropagation (BP), training deep networks via local energy-minimization dynamics rather than a global backward pass. We introduce Augmented Lagrangian Predictive Coding (PC-ALM), which maintains PC's inference budget but aligns each weight update toward BP by accumulating per-layer constraint errors into a layer-local Lagrange multiplier. In linear PC networks, PC-ALM converges to an equilibrium with exact BP gradients distributed across the network via only layer-local updates. We analyze PC-ALM in nonlinear PC networks up to depth 128 and show that it matches BP performance across all width-depth regimes, notably in deep narrow networks where PC underperforms. PC-ALM introduces recurrent dynamics in each layer's activations. Compared to PC's heat flow on a scalar energy, PC-ALM dynamics are driven by dual ascent on the augmented Lagrangian. We observe "ballistic" credit propagation across very deep networks, with credit signals evenly distributed across layers, compared to PC's slow, diffusive credit propagation. Beyond the algorithm itself, the augmented Lagrangian framework offers a generalization of PC, and may yield insights into how distributed systems could compute and propagate BP-like credit signals through purely local dynamics.

Generalist robot manipulation can benefit from pretrained vision-language models (VLMs) for semantic reasoning and video generation models (VGMs) for world modeling. However, existing unified models that directly fuse them through shared attention at multiple layers can make it harder to draw on their specialized capabilities. We introduce PINT, a unified model that coordinates semantic reasoning, world modeling, and action generation through a shared chunk-level Predictive Intent while preserving expert-specific pathways. PINT inserts learnable Intent Tokens into the VLM sequence to form this representation, conditioning both the VGM and an Action Expert (AE). It replaces only the VGM's prompt conditioning and retains the VGM at inference, where the AE reads its representations through one-way attention. Rather than prescribing what Predictive Intent should encode, PINT learns it jointly from the native prediction objectives of the VLM, VGM, and AE, which provide complementary views of the same upcoming task execution. Training uses two stages: Stage 1 freezes the VGM so that future video prediction shapes Predictive Intent with task-relevant future dynamics, while Stage 2 fixes the learned Intent and adapts the VGM and AE. Without embodied pretraining, PINT achieves strong in-distribution (ID) performance and substantially improves out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, reaching 15.5% on RoboTwin 2.0-Hard compared with 1.8% for Fast-WAM and 3.2% for StarVLA, and 79.5% on LIBERO-Plus compared with 51.5% and 75.0%, respectively. Across five real-world bimanual tasks, PINT reaches 68% ID and 24% OOD success, compared with 35%/9% for pretrained Motus and 67%/35% for pretrained π_{0.5}.

Existing spatial reasoning benchmarks mainly test spatial perception: reading off relations already visible in the input. Yet real-world spatial intelligence demands predictive spatial reasoning: constructing a scene from observations, anticipating how an intervention changes it, and reasoning about the unseen outcome. We introduce SpaceCast-Bench, the first benchmark to directly and diagnostically evaluate this capability. Built around an observe-transform-infer framework, its 3,862 questions from 182 real-world scenes span 16 task types at three levels: static perception, local prediction, and global prediction, progressively requiring scene understanding, spatial state updating, and relational inference over unobserved outcomes. Evaluating 21 models exposes a stark gap: the strongest model reaches only 58.0% against 87.2% human performance, while spatially specialized models remain near random chance. Controlled analyses further reveal that bridge views are critical for integrating distributed observations, and that explicit 3D evidence benefits models more reliably than generated outcome images or videos. Fine-tuning on our programmatically generated data lifts Qwen3-VL-4B from 34.0% to 65.7% with macro-average gains across six out-of-domain benchmarks.

Removing an object is not the same as filling its mask. Cast shadows and contact shading usually lie outside the user-provided instance mask M_obj, so a frozen Fill model that edits only that mask leaves the object's photometric footprint on nearby surfaces. Supervised removers learn this joint erasure from paired clean plates. Training-free editors freeze pretrained weights, yet most still treat M_obj as the entire editable support and steer sampling with CLIP or DINO energies that do not predict the occluded scene. We present PredErase, a training-free inference procedure on frozen FLUX.2 and I-JEPA. The method separates where Fill may rewrite pixels from what structure should occupy the hole. A contact-band expansion M_flux of M_obj exposes local residuals on the supporting plane. I-JEPA, pretrained for masked token prediction, supplies a context-conditioned hole target in representation space; sparse projected gradients align decoded Fill completions with that target inside the instance, while coordinates outside the packed support stay locked. Under instance-only masks on RemovalBench, RORD-Val, and DEFACTO-Val, PredErase improves the native FLUX.2 backbone. Supervised removers remain stronger on several full-image appearance metrics; the supported claim is training-free object-and-effect editing of frozen Fill, not replacement of paired-data erasers.

While the overall inference latency of Video Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) can be substantially reduced through model distillation, per-step inference latency remains a critical bottleneck. Existing acceleration paradigms primarily exploit redundancy across the denoising trajectory; however, we identify a limitation where these step-wise strategies encounter diminishing returns in few-step regimes. In such scenarios, fewer intermediate states can limit opportunities for feature reuse or predictive modeling, motivating complementary forms of acceleration. To overcome this, we propose Frame Interleaved Sparsity DiT (FIS-DiT), a training-free and operator-agnostic framework that shifts the optimization focus from the temporal trajectory to the latent frame dimension. Our approach is motivated by an intrinsic duality within this dimension: the existence of frame-wise sparsity that permits reduced computation, coupled with a structural consistency that calls for maintaining coverage of frame positions in the global spatiotemporal context. Leveraging this insight, we implement Frame Interleaved Sparsity (FIS) as an execution strategy that manipulates frame subsets across the model hierarchy, refreshing all latent positions without requiring full-scale block computation. Empirical evaluations on Wan 2.2 and HunyuanVideo 1.5 demonstrate that FIS-DiT reaches 2.4times speedup while maintaining comparable performance on VBench, providing a scalable and robust pathway toward real-time high-definition video generation.

Recent years have witnessed remarkable advances in spatiotemporal predictive learning, with methods incorporating auxiliary inputs, complex neural architectures, and sophisticated training strategies. While SimVP has introduced a simpler, CNN-based baseline for this task, it still relies on heavy Unet-like architectures for spatial and temporal modeling, which still suffers from high complexity and computational overhead. In this paper, we propose SimVPv2, a streamlined model that eliminates the need for Unet architectures and demonstrates that plain stacks of convolutional layers, enhanced with an efficient Gated Spatiotemporal Attention mechanism, can deliver state-of-the-art performance. SimVPv2 not only simplifies the model architecture but also improves both performance and computational efficiency. On the standard Moving MNIST benchmark, SimVPv2 achieves superior performance compared to SimVP, with fewer FLOPs, about half the training time, and 60% faster inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across eight diverse datasets, including real-world tasks such as traffic forecasting and climate prediction, further demonstrate that SimVPv2 offers a powerful yet straightforward solution, achieving robust generalization across various spatiotemporal learning scenarios. We believe the proposed SimVPv2 can serve as a solid baseline to benefit the spatiotemporal predictive learning community.

Document understanding and GUI interaction are among the highest-value applications of Vision-Language Models (VLMs), yet they impose exceptionally heavy computational burden: fine-grained text and small UI elements demand high-resolution inputs that produce tens of thousands of visual tokens. We observe that this cost is largely wasteful -- across document and GUI benchmarks, only 22--71\% of image patches are pixel-unique, the rest being exact duplicates of another patch in the same image. We propose PixelPrune, which exploits this pixel-level redundancy through predictive-coding-based compression, pruning redundant patches before the Vision Transformer (ViT) encoder. Because it operates in pixel space prior to any neural computation, PixelPrune accelerates both the ViT encoder and the downstream LLM, covering the full inference pipeline. The method is training-free, requires no learnable parameters, and supports pixel-lossless compression (τ{=}0) as well as controlled lossy compression (τ{>}0). Experiments across three model scales and document and GUI benchmarks show that PixelPrune maintains competitive task accuracy while delivering up to 4.2times inference speedup and 1.9times training acceleration. Code is available at https://github.com/OPPO-Mente-Lab/PixelPrune.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) expose privacy risks by determining whether a specific sample was part of a model's training set. These threats are especially serious in sensitive domains such as healthcare and finance. Traditional mitigation techniques, such as static differential privacy, rely on injecting a fixed amount of noise during training or inference. However, this often leads to a detrimental trade-off: the noise may be insufficient to counter sophisticated attacks or, when increased, can substantially degrade model accuracy. To address this limitation, we propose DynaNoise, an adaptive inference-time defense that modulates injected noise based on per-query sensitivity. DynaNoise estimates risk using measures such as Shannon entropy and scales the noise variance accordingly, followed by a smoothing step that re-normalizes the perturbed outputs to preserve predictive utility. We further introduce MIDPUT (Membership Inference Defense Privacy-Utility Trade-off), a scalar metric that captures both privacy gains and accuracy retention. Our evaluation on several benchmark datasets demonstrates that DynaNoise substantially lowers attack success rates while maintaining competitive accuracy, achieving strong overall MIDPUT scores compared to state-of-the-art defenses.

Cybersickness remains a major obstacle to the widespread adoption of immersive virtual reality (VR), particularly in consumer-grade environments. While prior methods rely on invasive signals such as electroencephalography (EEG) for high predictive accuracy, these approaches require specialized hardware and are impractical for real-world applications. In this work, we propose a scalable, deployable framework for personalized cybersickness prediction leveraging only non-invasive signals readily available from commercial VR headsets, including head motion, eye tracking, and physiological responses. Our model employs a modality-specific graph neural network enhanced with a Difference Attention Module to extract temporal-spatial embeddings capturing dynamic changes across modalities. A cross-modal alignment module jointly trains the video encoder to learn personalized traits by aligning video features with sensor-derived representations. Consequently, the model accurately predicts individual cybersickness using only video input during inference. Experimental results show our model achieves 88.4\% accuracy, closely matching EEG-based approaches (89.16\%), while reducing deployment complexity. With an average inference latency of 90ms, our framework supports real-time applications, ideal for integration into consumer-grade VR platforms without compromising personalization or performance. The code will be relesed at https://github.com/U235-Aurora/PTGNN.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly growing in popularity, LLM inference services must be able to serve requests from thousands of users while satisfying performance requirements. The performance of an LLM inference service is largely determined by the hardware onto which it is deployed, but understanding of which hardware will deliver on performance requirements remains challenging. In this work we present LLM-Pilot - a first-of-its-kind system for characterizing and predicting performance of LLM inference services. LLM-Pilot performs benchmarking of LLM inference services, under a realistic workload, across a variety of GPUs, and optimizes the service configuration for each considered GPU to maximize performance. Finally, using this characterization data, LLM-Pilot learns a predictive model, which can be used to recommend the most cost-effective hardware for a previously unseen LLM. Compared to existing methods, LLM-Pilot can deliver on performance requirements 33% more frequently, whilst reducing costs by 60% on average.

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

World Action Models (WAMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for embodied intelligence, yet the prevailing reliance on pixel-level video generation creates a fundamental bottleneck. Forcing models to reconstruct task-irrelevant visual details dissipates representational capacity and renders policies vulnerable to visual distractors. In this paper, we propose LeapBot-WA, which establishes a novel Predictive-Latent paradigm for WAMs by operationalizing the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) as a World-Anchor. Departing from the traditional reliance on visual synthesis, LeapBot-WA shifts the core of world modeling to Predictive Semantic Alignment, extracting abstract physical dynamics directly within a latent foundation space. To bridge the modality gap between non-Gaussian predictive features and diffusion priors, we introduce the Isotropic Semantic Autoencoder (ISAE), which reshapes the anchor's latent space into a diffusion-friendly manifold to prevent off-manifold drift. Furthermore, we design an Asymmetric Mixture-of-Transformers (MoT) architecture. During training, an Anchor Diffusion Transformer acts as a privileged dynamics expert to guide the Action Diffusion Transformer; at inference, this heavy dynamics branch is pruned, enabling zero-overhead execution. LeapBot-WA achieves state-of-the-art performance among predictive models on LIBERO and matches top-tier generative WAMs on RoboTwin 2.0 without requiring large-scale trajectory pre-training. It further demonstrates superior zero-shot robustness to unseen environments and successful real-world transfer, establishing a highly efficient and robust latent-centric paradigm for scalable robotic control. Code: https://github.com/LeapWM/leapbot-wa.

World Foundation Models (WFMs) offer remarkable visual dynamics simulation capabilities, yet their application to precise robotic control remains limited by the gap between generative realism and control-oriented precision. While existing approaches use WFMs as synthetic data generators, they suffer from high computational costs and underutilization of pre-trained VLA policies. We introduce AdaPower (Adapt and Empower), a lightweight adaptation framework that transforms general-purpose WFMs into specialist world models through two novel components: Temporal-Spatial Test-Time Training (TS-TTT) for inference-time adaptation and Memory Persistence (MP) for long-horizon consistency. Integrated within a Model Predictive Control framework, our adapted world model empowers pre-trained VLAs, achieving over 41\% improvement in task success rates on LIBERO benchmarks without policy retraining, while preserving computational efficiency and generalist capabilities.

Autonomous driving requires world models that can understand the physical world, reason and plan, and operate safely. In this paper, we first systematically evaluate existing action-conditioned joint-embedding predictive architecture (JEPA) world models, including LeWM, DINO-WM, and JEPA-WM for end-to-end autonomous driving (E2EAD). To isolate world-model quality from policy learning, we employ a goal-conditioned zero-shot planning setting that evaluates these models using ground-truth future observations as goals, without training any driving policy. We find that existing JEPA-based world models are either accurate for driving but computationally expensive, or computationally efficient but insufficient for planning. To address this trade-off, we propose AD-E2E-JEPA, which introduces a SIGReg-regularized learnable projector applied to projected patch embeddings. The projector reduces the number of planning patches by 16times and the embedding dimension by 4times, achieving a 100times inference speedup while retaining planning performance, with a 0.8-second runtime for an 8-frame rollout over 256 candidate trajectories. Without training any driving policy, the world model itself reaches the goals located 20 meters away on average within the displacement of respectively 4.0/2.8 meters, using world-model rollouts over trajectory vocabularies of respectively 256/8,192 candidates. On the NAVSIMv2 benchmark, it achieves 67.3/72.9 EPDMS with multiplicative safety metrics and 84.1/86.5 EPDMS^{dagger} without them in goal-conditioned zero-shot planning. Experiments further show that the self-supervised pretrained projector improves downstream imitation learning performance from 80.2 to 85.4 EPDMS. The source code is available at https://github.com/HaoranZhuExplorer/AD-E2E-JEPA

This paper presents Block, a distributed scheduling framework designed to optimize load balancing and auto-provisioning across instances in large language model serving frameworks by leveraging contextual information from incoming requests. Unlike popular model serving systems that rely on monolithic and heuristic task schedulers, Block operates as a fully distributed, stateless, and predictive scheduling system to achieve low overhead, reliability, and scalability. It leverages the deterministic and predictable characteristics of LLM inferences, such as host configurations, response lengths, and hardware performance, to make scheduling decisions based on accurately predicted metrics. Evaluation on a 12 GPUs cluster shows that Block significantly outperforms heuristic schedulers, boosting serving capacity by up to 16.7\% and reducing P99 tail latency by up to 49.5\%. These performance gains remain consistent across diverse models, workloads and configurations. Code and data are open-sourced.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Due to the high resource demands of Large Language Models (LLMs), achieving widespread deployment on consumer-grade devices presents significant challenges. Typically, personal or consumer-grade devices, including servers configured prior to the era of large-scale models, generally have relatively weak GPUs and relatively strong CPUs. However, most current methods primarily depend on GPUs for computation. Therefore, we propose Dovetail, an approach that deploys the draft model on the GPU to generate draft tokens while allowing the target model to perform parallel verification on the CPU, thereby improving the utilization of all available hardware resources and occupying less inter-device communication bandwidth. Accordingly, we have redesigned the draft model to better align with heterogeneous hardware characteristics. To this end, we implemented several optimizations: reducing the number of draft tokens to mitigate latency in parallel verification, increasing the depth of the draft model to enhance its predictive capacity, and introducing DGF (Dynamic Gating Fusion) to improve the integration of features and token embeddings. In the HumanEval benchmark, Dovetail achieved an inference speed of 5.86 tokens per second for LLaMA2-Chat-7B using 3GB of VRAM, representing an approximately 2.77x improvement over CPU-only inference. Furthermore, the inference speed was increased to 8 tokens per second when utilizing 7GB of VRAM.

Deep generative models produce data according to a learned representation, e.g. diffusion models, through a process of approximation computing possible samples. Approximation can be understood as reconstruction and the large datasets used to train models as sets of records in which we represent the physical world with some data structure (photographs, audio recordings, manuscripts). During the process of reconstruction, e.g., image frames develop each timestep towards a textual input description. While moving forward in time, frame sets are shaped according to learned bias and their production, we argue here, can be considered as going back in time; not by inspiration on the backward diffusion process but acknowledging culture is specifically marked in the records. Futures of generative modelling, namely in film and audiovisual arts, can benefit by dealing with diffusion systems as a process to compute the future by inevitably being tied to the past, if acknowledging the records as to capture fields of view at a specific time, and to correlate with our own finite memory ideals. Models generating new data distributions can target video production as signal processors and by developing sequences through timelines we ourselves also go back to decade-old algorithmic and multi-track methodologies revealing the actual predictive failure of contemporary approaches to synthesis in moving image, both as relevant to composition and not explanatory.

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) improves language models by allocating more computation at generation time. Particle Filtering (PF) has emerged as a strong ITS method for complex mathematical reasoning tasks, but it is vulnerable when guided by process reward models, which often assign overconfident scores early in the reasoning process. This causes PF to suffer from premature exploitation: it myopically commits to locally promising trajectories, prunes potentially correct hypotheses, and converges to suboptimal solutions. This failure mode, known as particle impoverishment, is especially severe under constrained computational budgets. To address this, we analyze the problem and identify two root causes: a lack of diversity in the particle set due to overconfident resampling and consequent inability to assess the potential of a reasoning path. We introduce Entropic Particle Filtering (ePF), an algorithm that integrates two new techniques to solve these issues. The first technique, Entropic Annealing (EA), directly mitigates particle impoverishment by monitoring search diversity via entropy; when diversity drops, it intervenes by dynamically annealing the resampling distribution to preserve exploration. The second, an enhancement called Look-ahead Modulation (LaM), adds a predictive guide to evaluate a state's potential based on its successors. On several challenging math benchmarks, ePF significantly outperforms strong baselines and achieves up to a 50 % relative improvement in task reward. Together, these methods improve PF's resilience by balancing the exploration of diverse solution spaces with the exploitation of high-reward regions, ultimately leading to higher-quality solutions.

Recent developments in large language models have shown advantages in reallocating a notable share of computational resource from training time to inference time. However, the principles behind inference time scaling are not well understood. In this paper, we introduce an analytically tractable model of inference-time scaling: Bayesian linear regression with a reward-weighted sampler, where the reward is determined from a linear model, modeling LLM-as-a-judge scenario. We study this problem in the high-dimensional regime, where the deterministic equivalents dictate a closed-form expression for the posterior predictive mean and variance. We analyze the generalization error when training data are sampled from a teacher model. We draw k inference-time samples and select via softmax at a temperature applied to a quadratic reward. When the reward is not too different from the teacher, the generalization error decreases monotonically with increasing inference time samples k. However, the specific reward that optimizes inference-time selection generally differs from the teacher. In contrast, substantial reward misspecification induces a finite optimal k beyond which more sampling can increase the generalization error. For fixed k, there exists an optimal sampling temperature. We experimentally verify these facts in large language model inference with an additional large language model as a judge. In the "best-of-k" limit with the teacher as reward, we theoretically show that the generalization error decays as Θ(1/k^2) and determine the leading coefficient via extreme value theory. These formulas delineate domains where scaling inference-time computation is provably preferable to collecting more data. Finally, we demonstrate that when task difficulty increases, the previously mentioned advantage of inference-time compute degrades.

The deployment of large language models (LLMs) in real-world applications is increasingly limited by their high inference cost. While recent advances in dynamic token-level computation allocation attempt to improve efficiency by selectively activating model components per token, existing methods rely on greedy routing--a myopic execute-or-skip mechanism that often leads to irreversible information loss and suboptimal token selection. This paper introduces informed routing, a new paradigm that proactively addresses these issues. The key insight is to assess not only a token's immediate importance but also its recoverability, i.e., how well its transformation can be approximated. To this end, we propose the Lightweight Feature Forecaster (LFF), a small predictive module that estimates a unit's output before routing decisions are made. This enables a flexible execute-or-approximate policy that preserves model fidelity while drastically reducing computation. Extensive experiments on both language modeling and reasoning tasks show that informed routing achieves state-of-the-art efficiency-performance trade-offs across multiple sparsity levels. Notably, even without final LoRA fine-tuning, our method matches or surpasses strong baselines that require full fine-tuning, all while reducing training time by over 50%. The code is available at: https://github.com/EIT-NLP/informed-routing

Tabular machine learning presents a paradox: modern models achieve state-of-the-art performance using high-dimensional (high-D), collinear, error-prone data, defying the "Garbage In, Garbage Out" mantra. To help resolve this, we synthesize principles from Information Theory, Latent Factor Models, and Psychometrics, clarifying that predictive robustness arises not solely from data cleanliness, but from the synergy between data architecture and model capacity. Partitioning predictor-space "noise" into "Predictor Error" and "Structural Uncertainty" (informational deficits from stochastic generative mappings), we prove that leveraging high-D sets of error-prone predictors asymptotically overcomes both types of noise, whereas cleaning a low-D set is fundamentally bounded by Structural Uncertainty. We demonstrate why "Informative Collinearity" (dependencies from shared latent causes) enhances reliability and convergence efficiency, and explain why increased dimensionality reduces the latent inference burden, enabling feasibility with finite samples. To address practical constraints, we propose "Proactive Data-Centric AI" to identify predictors that enable robustness efficiently. We also derive boundaries for Systematic Error Regimes and show why models that absorb "rogue" dependencies can mitigate assumption violations. Linking latent architecture to Benign Overfitting, we offer a first step towards a unified view of robustness to Outcome Error and predictor-space noise, while also delineating when traditional DCAI's focus on label cleaning remains powerful. By redefining data quality from item-level perfection to portfolio-level architecture, we provide a theoretical rationale for "Local Factories" -- learning from live, uncurated enterprise "data swamps" -- supporting a deployment paradigm shift from "Model Transfer" to "Methodology Transfer'' to overcome static generalizability limitations.

We present Clin-JEPA, a multi-phase co-training framework for joint-embedding predictive (JEPA) pretraining on EHR patient trajectories. JEPA architectures have enabled latent-space planning in robotics and high-quality representation learning in vision, but extending the paradigm to EHR data -- to obtain a single backbone that simultaneously forecasts patient trajectories and serves diverse downstream risk-prediction tasks without per-task fine-tuning -- remains an open challenge. Existing JEPA frameworks either discard the predictor after pretraining (I-JEPA, V-JEPA) or train it on a frozen pretrained encoder (V-JEPA 2-AC), leaving the encoder unaware of the rollout signal that the retained predictor must use at inference; co-training the encoder and predictor under a shared JEPA prediction objective would supply this grounding, but naïve co-training is unstable, with representation collapse and online/target drift causing autoregressive rollout to diverge. Clin-JEPA's five-phase pretraining curriculum -- predictor warmup, joint refinement, EMA target alignment, hard sync, and predictor finalization -- addresses each failure mode by phase, stably co-training a Qwen3-8B-based encoder and a 92M-parameter latent trajectory predictor. On MIMIC-IV ICU data, three independent evaluations support the framework: (1) latent ell_1 rollout drift uniquely converges (-15.7%) over 48-hour horizons while baselines and ablations diverge (+3% to +4951%); (2) the encoder learns a clinically discriminative latent geometry (deteriorating-patient cohorts displace 4.83times further than stable patients in latent space, vs leq2.62times for baseline encoders); (3) a single backbone outperforms strong tabular and sequence baselines on multi-task downstream evaluation. Clin-JEPA achieves mean AUROC 0.851 on ICareFM EEP and 0.883 on 8 binary risk tasks (+0.038 and +0.041 vs baseline average).

World Action Models (WAMs) jointly model visual dynamics and action generation for generalist robot manipulation. A central challenge is to integrate priors from large-scale pretrained models---including visual dynamics, scene semantics, geometry, and motion---into a unified framework for robot action generation. We introduce InternW0-Δ, a unified WAM pretrained on a heterogeneous corpus that outperforms prior methods across simulation benchmarks and real-robot platforms. InternW0-Δ combines pretrained visual dynamics, scene-level semantics, 4D geometric and motion priors, and action generation within a Mixture-of-Transformers (MoT) framework. A pretrained video expert and an action expert interact under semantic guidance from a frozen VLM, while a pretrained 4D foundation model injects geometric and motion priors through training-only distillation. We further introduce Causal Imprint, which learns future-relevant scene changes from training-only future supervision and provides predictive representations directly to the action expert without future-video rollout at inference. For large-scale joint training, we construct a heterogeneous corpus of robot demonstrations, UMI data, egocentric human demonstrations, and Ego2Robot data, curated and aligned under a common state-action representation. The resulting corpus contains over 20K hours of processed training data, to our knowledge the largest open-source corpus of its kind. We pretrain InternW0-Δ on this corpus and demonstrate strong performance across simulation benchmarks and real-robot platforms. We will open source the training code, model weights, infrastructure, data-processing pipeline, and processed data where licenses permit. Project page: https://internrobotics.github.io/InternW0-Delta/

The increasing maturity of embodied AI platforms has driven a growing interest in procedural video representation learning to support intelligent assistance systems for complex, multi-step tasks. Leveraging large-scale latent predictive training, video foundation models capture video dynamics, enabling downstream tasks such as activity understanding, spatiotemporal localization, and predictive control. However, procedural videos include actions with long-range dependencies that these models do not support, due to the quadratic complexity of self-attention. Distinct actions, for example, may be visually similar despite appearing at different points in the procedure, such as turning the stove on versus off. Here, we propose a backbone-agnostic approach that learns long-duration video representations by reducing the problem to a dense, frame-aligned action space and predicting pooled masked latent vectors. This approach allows our Procedural Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (P-JEPA) to ingest videos over 30 minutes long, enabling effective long-form understanding of procedural steps. We evaluate P-JEPA using features extracted with VJEPA2.1, TSM, and I3D over the EgoExo4D, EgoProceL, and Assembly101 datasets, finding that it consistently improves linear separability, streaming inference, and temporal action segmentation performance, achieving state-of-the-art results on EgoExo4D fine-grained action classification while using an order of magnitude fewer parameters than LLM-based methods and running in real time.

Multiple epidemic waves are often taken as evidence that simple compartmental models are structurally inadequate. Yet the key question is not whether a simple model can reproduce multiple peaks, but how much time-varying structure is minimally required to preserve observed epidemic-wave patterns and what can legitimately be inferred from such a representation. Using the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, we develop a framework for peak-preserving dynamic parsimony linking dynamical systems, inverse problems, statistical inference, and infectious-disease modeling. We establish exact multi-wave representability under time-varying transmission, characterize conditions for epidemic peaks and resurgence, and show the incidence-only non-identifiability of time-varying transmission and removal rates. Our main methodological contribution is minimal peak-preserving complexity (MPPC): the smallest dimension of a positive time-varying transmission function whose posterior-predictive trajectories preserve salient features, including peak count, timing, height, trough depth, and whole-curve agreement. We estimate MPPC using peak-aware approximate Bayesian computation and evaluate it through six reproducible stress tests, a Philippine COVID-19 reported-case proof of concept, and short-term future-knot projection. Across diverse data-generating mechanisms, low-dimensional time-varying SIR models can preserve aggregate epidemic-wave topology with modest dynamic complexity. However, accurate trajectory compression does not imply recovery of the underlying mechanism or reliable long-term counterfactual prediction. The framework therefore separates four often-conflated questions: representability, minimal dynamic complexity, mechanistic identifiability, and projection validity, providing a basis for parsimonious modeling of complex epidemic trajectories.

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues. These incomplete spatiotemporal records impede reliable inference and risk assessment and can lead to overconfident extrapolation. To address these challenges, we propose an end to end framework, the channel gated learning unit based spatiotemporal bayesian neural field (CGLUBNF). It uses Fourier features with a graph attention encoder to capture multiscale spatial dependencies and seasonal temporal dynamics. A channel gated learning unit, equipped with learnable activations and gated residual connections, adaptively filters and amplifies informative features. Bayesian inference jointly optimizes predictive distributions and parameter uncertainty, producing point estimates and calibrated prediction intervals. We conduct a systematic evaluation on two real world datasets, covering four typical missing data patterns and comparing against five state of the art baselines. CGLUBNF achieves superior prediction accuracy and sharper confidence intervals. In addition, we further validate robustness across multiple prediction horizons and analysis the contribution of extraneous variables. This research lays a foundation for reliable deep learning based spatio-temporal forecasting with incomplete observations in emerging sensing paradigms, such as real world vehicle borne mobile monitoring.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually over-parameterized space. This paper investigates a new line of Bayesian deep learning by performing Bayesian inference on network structure. Instead of building structure from scratch inefficiently, we draw inspirations from neural architecture search to represent the network structure. We then develop an efficient stochastic variational inference approach which unifies the learning of both network structure and weights. Empirically, our method exhibits competitive predictive performance while preserving the benefits of Bayesian principles across challenging scenarios. We also provide convincing experimental justification for our modeling choice.

How can robots autonomously collect the contact-rich experience needed to learn dexterous manipulation? We present DSP: Dexterity from supervised play, a framework in which a robot learns a play policy from minutes of human play through behavior cloning, then deploys it autonomously to collect hours of interaction data to train a world model. During inference, the same play policy then guides model-predictive control (MPC) by proposing candidate action sequences for evaluation under the learned world model. To accelerate inference, we also introduce a method for distilling a closed-loop, goal-conditioned policy through self-play within the learned world model. We evaluate this framework on underactuated pushing and any-to-any in-hand pose reorientation with a multifingered hand, in simulation and real world. In real world experiment, our method outperforms hindsight behavior cloning by 69.6% in success rate and achieves comparable success to reinforcement learning with 490 times less interaction data. These results demonstrate that supervised play can autonomously collect interaction data, guide model-based planning, and enable policy learning without any task-specific demonstrations or sim-to-real transfer.

Deep neural network (DNN) deployment has been confined to larger hardware devices due to their expensive computational requirements. This challenge has recently reached another scale with the emergence of large language models (LLMs). In order to reduce both their memory footprint and latency, a promising technique is quantization. It consists in converting floating point representations to low bit-width fixed point representations, usually by assuming a uniform mapping onto a regular grid. This process, referred to in the literature as uniform quantization, may however be ill-suited as most DNN weights and activations follow a bell-shaped distribution. This is even worse on LLMs whose weight distributions are known to exhibit large, high impact, outlier values. In this work, we propose an improvement over the most commonly adopted way to tackle this limitation in deep learning models quantization, namely, non-uniform quantization. NUPES leverages automorphisms to preserve the scalar multiplications. Such transformations are derived from power functions. However, the optimization of the exponent parameter and weight values remains a challenging and novel problem which could not be solved with previous post training optimization techniques which only learn to round up or down weight values in order to preserve the predictive function. We circumvent this limitation with a new paradigm: learning new quantized weights over the entire quantized space. Similarly, we enable the optimization of the power exponent, i.e. the optimization of the quantization operator itself during training by alleviating all the numerical instabilities. The resulting predictive function is compatible with integer-only low-bit inference. We show the ability of the method to achieve state-of-the-art compression rates in both, data-free and data-driven configurations.

A dominant critique of algorithmic fairness holds that increasing fairness reduces predictive accuracy, imposing a cost on society. We challenge that assumption by empirically analyzing the COMPAS dataset. We make two contributions. First, using causal inference methods, we show that racial bias is not only present in the COMPAS dataset but is also amplified by the models trained on it. Widely used models do more than replicate existing bias; they exacerbate it. This undercuts both the assumption that algorithmic decision-making offers a neutral improvement over human judgment and the weaker claim that it merely mirrors preexisting human bias. Second, we reframe the fairness-accuracy tradeoff. Applying fairness constraints does not necessarily cost predictive accuracy in criminal justice. Prediction systems operationalize concepts such as risk through implicit and often flawed normative choices about what to predict and how. The tradeoff claim assumes that the unconstrained model's prediction is an optimal baseline. Fairness constraints can instead correct distortions introduced by biased outcome variables: rearrest data, in this case, captures and magnifies systemic racial disparities. Under some interventions, therefore, fairness carries none of the cost presumed in policy debates. These dynamics extend beyond criminal justice to lending, hiring, and housing, where biased outcome variables reinforce inequality independently of proxy selection. We draw out what this implies for how law and policy should approach fairness adjustments in criminal law.

The growing use of language models for forecasting motivates a broader evaluation of their world-model capabilities. Such evaluation must go beyond predictive accuracy to assess hidden-state inference and intervention prediction. Real-world forecasting benchmarks offer limited access to hidden-state ground truth and controlled experiments. We introduce CivWorldBench, a benchmark built on a multi-agent strategy game engine with recorded internal states, controlled observations, and paired intervention rollouts. Its 1,900 decision points from 475 worlds support three task levels: association forecasting, belief inference, and intervention prediction. Reference predictors support attributable evaluation of capability gaps, with an expert harness and empirical ceiling estimates contextualizing scores. Stored trajectories make intermediate predictions verifiable, while agent-play experiments test whether world-model capabilities support decision-making. The main panel comprises eleven frontier language models. Composite benchmark scores correlate with real-world forecasting leaderboards on matched model panels, more closely than with a general-capability index, supporting its use as a proxy for real-world forecasting capability. Strong association forecasts do not consistently extend to belief inference or intervention prediction, and effect magnitudes remain poorly calibrated despite informative direction predictions. Process verification reveals errors missed by final-answer evaluation, and structured reasoning improves intervention prediction for the strongest model in the process study. Agent-play experiments identify useful assisted plans and motivate evaluating decision-relevant capabilities beyond association forecasting. These findings identify hidden-state inference, intermediate-state prediction, and effect calibration as priorities for world-model training.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have been an important framework in the study of uncertainty quantification. Deterministic variational inference, one of the inference methods, utilizes moment propagation to compute the predictive distributions and objective functions. Unfortunately, deriving the moments requires computationally expensive Taylor expansion in nonlinear functions, such as a rectified linear unit (ReLU) or a sigmoid function. Therefore, a new nonlinear function that realizes faster moment propagation than conventional functions is required. In this paper, we propose a novel nonlinear function named moment propagating-Gaussian error linear unit (MP-GELU) that enables the fast derivation of first and second moments in BNNs. MP-GELU enables the analytical computation of moments by applying nonlinearity to the input statistics, thereby reducing the computationally expensive calculations required for nonlinear functions. In empirical experiments on regression tasks, we observed that the proposed MP-GELU provides higher prediction accuracy and better quality of uncertainty with faster execution than those of ReLU-based BNNs.

Humans anticipate, from a glance and a contemplated action of their bodies, how the 3D world will respond, a capability that is equally vital for robotic manipulation. We introduce PointWorld, a large pre-trained 3D world model that unifies state and action in a shared 3D space as 3D point flows: given one or few RGB-D images and a sequence of low-level robot action commands, PointWorld forecasts per-pixel displacements in 3D that respond to the given actions. By representing actions as 3D point flows instead of embodiment-specific action spaces (e.g., joint positions), this formulation directly conditions on physical geometries of robots while seamlessly integrating learning across embodiments. To train our 3D world model, we curate a large-scale dataset spanning real and simulated robotic manipulation in open-world environments, enabled by recent advances in 3D vision and simulated environments, totaling about 2M trajectories and 500 hours across a single-arm Franka and a bimanual humanoid. Through rigorous, large-scale empirical studies of backbones, action representations, learning objectives, partial observability, data mixtures, domain transfers, and scaling, we distill design principles for large-scale 3D world modeling. With a real-time (0.1s) inference speed, PointWorld can be efficiently integrated in the model-predictive control (MPC) framework for manipulation. We demonstrate that a single pre-trained checkpoint enables a real-world Franka robot to perform rigid-body pushing, deformable and articulated object manipulation, and tool use, without requiring any demonstrations or post-training and all from a single image captured in-the-wild. Project website at https://point-world.github.io/.

Current Natural Language Inference (NLI) models achieve impressive results, sometimes outperforming humans when evaluating on in-distribution test sets. However, as these models are known to learn from annotation artefacts and dataset biases, it is unclear to what extent the models are learning the task of NLI instead of learning from shallow heuristics in their training data. We address this issue by introducing a logical reasoning framework for NLI, creating highly transparent model decisions that are based on logical rules. Unlike prior work, we show that improved interpretability can be achieved without decreasing the predictive accuracy. We almost fully retain performance on SNLI, while also identifying the exact hypothesis spans that are responsible for each model prediction. Using the e-SNLI human explanations, we verify that our model makes sensible decisions at a span level, despite not using any span labels during training. We can further improve model performance and span-level decisions by using the e-SNLI explanations during training. Finally, our model is more robust in a reduced data setting. When training with only 1,000 examples, out-of-distribution performance improves on the MNLI matched and mismatched validation sets by 13% and 16% relative to the baseline. Training with fewer observations yields further improvements, both in-distribution and out-of-distribution.

Modern computer vision requires balancing predictive accuracy with real-time efficiency, yet the high inference cost of large vision models (LVMs) limits deployment on resource-constrained edge devices. Although Evolutionary Neural Architecture Search (ENAS) is well suited for multi-objective optimization, its practical use is hindered by two issues: expensive candidate evaluation and ranking inconsistency among subnetworks. To address them, we propose EvoNAS, an efficient distributed framework for multi-objective evolutionary architecture search. We build a hybrid supernet that integrates Vision State Space and Vision Transformer (VSS-ViT) modules, and optimize it with a Cross-Architecture Dual-Domain Knowledge Distillation (CA-DDKD) strategy. By coupling the computational efficiency of VSS blocks with the semantic expressiveness of ViT modules, CA-DDKD improves the representational capacity of the shared supernet and enhances ranking consistency, enabling reliable fitness estimation during evolution without extra fine-tuning. To reduce the cost of large-scale validation, we further introduce a Distributed Multi-Model Parallel Evaluation (DMMPE) framework based on GPU resource pooling and asynchronous scheduling. Compared with conventional data-parallel evaluation, DMMPE improves efficiency by over 70% through concurrent multi-GPU, multi-model execution. Experiments on COCO, ADE20K, KITTI, and NYU-Depth v2 show that the searched architectures, termed EvoNets, consistently achieve Pareto-optimal trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency. Compared with representative CNN-, ViT-, and Mamba-based models, EvoNets deliver lower inference latency and higher throughput under strict computational budgets while maintaining strong generalization on downstream tasks such as novel view synthesis. Code is available at https://github.com/EMI-Group/evonas

We introduce Causilo, a tabular foundation model (TFM) that combines frontier predictive performance with exceptionally fast inference. On TabArena, Causilo achieves 1785.4 Elo, at a median inference time of 0.10 seconds per 1K test samples. It outperforms TabPFN-3.5-Fast with 31.6% less inference time, placing it on the performance--efficiency Pareto frontier. Causilo follows TabICL's column-then-row architecture but introduces another row-refinement module before row compression. This module exchanges information among cell representations within each row after column encoding. The refined cells then visit the context set again through an additional column stage before being compressed into row embeddings. For inference efficiency, both row stages use cross-attention through a fixed number of summary tokens, keeping their attention cost linear in the number of features. Pretrained on approximately 36M synthetic tables, Causilo delivers strong benchmark results across TabArena, BeyondArena, and ScoringBench, achieving frontier-level performance with substantially faster inference.

Biological function in RNA is encoded across scales, from local sequence motifs to long-range structural dependencies. Conventional RNA foundation models couple parameter capacity and inference depth within a fixed architecture, prescribing a fixed computation graph for each inference. Here we present Eco-RNA, an 80M-parameter RNA foundation model that makes inference depth adjustable through learned iterative refinement. Its shared, input-conditioned Transformer core refines sequence representations through repeated application. The iteration count is selected after training and controls effective depth at fixed model parameters. We train across recurrent depths with masked reconstruction, state regularization, and a one-sided loss that anchors deeper reconstruction to a shallow reference. On the 70-assay RNAGym fitness benchmark, increasing refinement from one to four iterations raises aggregate absolute Spearman correlation from 0.242 to 0.286, with the gain retained through eight iterations. At four iterations, Eco-RNA surpasses the current SOTA Evo 2 40B on all three aggregate fitness metrics despite 500x fewer parameters. Its iteration configurations advance the compute-performance Pareto frontier among the evaluated models. It also outperforms the evaluated baselines in non-coding RNA family classification, RNA secondary-structure prediction, and chemical probing profile prediction. These results establish internal inference computation as an effective scaling dimension for RNA foundation models.

Combating money laundering has become increasingly complex with the rise of cybercrime and digitalization of financial transactions. Graph-based machine learning techniques have emerged as promising tools for Anti-Money Laundering (AML) detection, capturing intricate relationships within money laundering networks. However, the effectiveness of AML solutions is hindered by data silos within financial institutions, limiting collaboration and overall efficacy. This research presents a novel privacy-preserving approach for collaborative AML machine learning, facilitating secure data sharing across institutions and borders while preserving privacy and regulatory compliance. Leveraging Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), computations are directly performed on encrypted data, ensuring the confidentiality of financial data. Notably, FHE over the Torus (TFHE) was integrated with graph-based machine learning using Zama Concrete ML. The research contributes two key privacy-preserving pipelines. First, the development of a privacy-preserving Graph Neural Network (GNN) pipeline was explored. Optimization techniques like quantization and pruning were used to render the GNN FHE-compatible. Second, a privacy-preserving graph-based XGBoost pipeline leveraging Graph Feature Preprocessor (GFP) was successfully developed. Experiments demonstrated strong predictive performance, with the XGBoost model consistently achieving over 99% accuracy, F1-score, precision, and recall on the balanced AML dataset in both unencrypted and FHE-encrypted inference settings. On the imbalanced dataset, the incorporation of graph-based features improved the F1-score by 8%. The research highlights the need to balance the trade-off between privacy and computational efficiency.