Daily Papers

Which reasoning behaviors are associated with correct answers in reasoning models, and does reasoning-oriented training amplify those behaviors? This distinction is important because reasoning-oriented training can make traces look more deliberative without amplifying the behaviors most tied to model correctness. We quantify this mismatch with Behavioral Lift, a metric that measures how much correctness changes when a behavior is present versus absent in a model's reasoning trace. Across 15 models and 6 benchmarks spanning text-only and vision-language reasoning, we annotate 15,282 traces with a taxonomy whose core behaviors are defined for both LLM and VLM traces. We find evidence for an Amplification-Lift Gap, in which thinking models strongly amplify self-correction, hypothesis testing, and uncertainty acknowledgment, while the highest-lift behaviors are confidence calibration, knowledge alignment, and self-awareness. Confidence calibration is among the strongest positive signals of correctness in both modalities, yet is barely amplified; uncertainty acknowledgment is amplified by 3--7times, yet is weakly or negatively associated with correctness. We find that reasoning-oriented training does not preferentially amplify the highest-Lift behaviors, motivating process-level objectives that reward calibrated and grounded reasoning rather than surface form alone.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced Table Question Answering, where most queries can be answered by extracting information or simple aggregation. However, a common class of real-world queries is implicitly predictive, requiring the inference of unobserved answers from historical patterns rather than mere retrieval. These queries introduce two challenges: recognizing latent intent and reliable predictive reasoning over massive tables. To assess LLMs in such Tabular questiOn answering with implicit Prediction tasks, we introduce TopBench, a benchmark consisting of 779 samples across four sub-tasks, ranging from single-point prediction to decision making, treatment effect analysis, and complex filtering, requiring models to generate outputs spanning reasoning text and structured tables. We evaluate diverse models under both text-based and agentic workflows. Experiments reveal that current models often struggle with intent recognition, defaulting to just lookups. Deeper analysis identifies that accurate intent disambiguation serves as the prerequisite for leading these predictive behaviors. Furthermore, elevating the upper bound of prediction precision requires the integration of more sophisticated modeling or reasoning capabilities.

Learning, at its core, extends beyond memorization to the ability to reason and solve novel problems by navigating a space of possibilities. We introduce Lumo-2, a latent world-action model that generates actions by reasoning over world dynamics in latent space. The learned latent world dynamics capture physically grounded visual transitions, naturally encoding future possibilities and providing a unified substrate for cross-modal alignment. This formulation enables predictive reasoning akin to world modelling while remaining lightweight and focused on physical dynamics relevant to control. Central to our approach is the hypothesis that action generation quality is governed by the geometry of the latent space. We observe that standard reconstruction-based action tokenization objectives induce representations biased toward low-level signal fidelity, leading to misalignment between reconstruction quality and downstream control performance. To address this limitation, we propose a multi-stage modality pre-alignment strategy in which action representations are progressively aligned with latent world dynamics, vision, and language. This process enforces cross-modal consistency, promotes abstraction, and induces a structured latent space for predictive reasoning. We provide a systematic empirical study of latent world modelling and modality alignment, analyzing their roles in scaling laws and out-of-distribution generalization. Results show that Lumo-2 consistently outperforms strong vision-language-action (VLA) and world-action model (WAM) baselines, with gains on challenging real-world tasks requiring temporal reasoning, physical understanding, or high control complexity, including long-horizon and dexterous manipulation. These findings suggest that structured multimodal alignment and predictive reasoning are fundamental principles for advancing embodied intelligence.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in perception and interpretation tasks, but their capabilities in predictive reasoning remain under-explored. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark that assesses the predictive reasoning capabilities of MLLMs across diverse scenarios. Our benchmark targets three important domains: abstract pattern reasoning, human activity prediction, and physical interaction prediction. We further develop three evaluation methods powered by large language model to robustly quantify a model's performance in predicting and reasoning the future based on multi-visual context. Empirical experiments confirm the soundness of the proposed benchmark and evaluation methods via rigorous testing and reveal pros and cons of current popular MLLMs in the task of predictive reasoning. Lastly, our proposed benchmark provides a standardized evaluation framework for MLLMs and can facilitate the development of more advanced models that can reason and predict over complex long sequence of multimodal input.

Reading stories evokes rich interpretive, affective, and evaluative responses, such as inferences about narrative intent or judgments about characters. Yet, computational models of reader response are limited, preventing nuanced analyses. To address this gap, we introduce SocialStoryFrames, a formalism for distilling plausible inferences about reader response, such as perceived author intent, explanatory and predictive reasoning, affective responses, and value judgments, using conversational context and a taxonomy grounded in narrative theory, linguistic pragmatics, and psychology. We develop two models, SSF-Generator and SSF-Classifier, validated through human surveys (N=382 participants) and expert annotations, respectively. We conduct pilot analyses to showcase the utility of the formalism for studying storytelling at scale. Specifically, applying our models to SSF-Corpus, a curated dataset of 6,140 social media stories from diverse contexts, we characterize the frequency and interdependence of storytelling intents, and we compare and contrast narrative practices (and their diversity) across communities. By linking fine-grained, context-sensitive modeling with a generic taxonomy of reader responses, SocialStoryFrames enable new research into storytelling in online communities.

Autonomous driving requires rich contextual comprehension and precise predictive reasoning to navigate dynamic and complex environments safely. Vision-Language Models (VLMs) and Driving World Models (DWMs) have independently emerged as powerful recipes addressing different aspects of this challenge. VLMs provide interpretability and robust action prediction through their ability to understand multi-modal context, while DWMs excel in generating detailed and plausible future driving scenarios essential for proactive planning. Integrating VLMs with DWMs is an intuitive, promising, yet understudied strategy to exploit the complementary strengths of accurate behavioral prediction and realistic scene generation. Nevertheless, this integration presents notable challenges, particularly in effectively connecting action-level decisions with high-fidelity pixel-level predictions and maintaining computational efficiency. In this paper, we propose ImagiDrive, a novel end-to-end autonomous driving framework that integrates a VLM-based driving agent with a DWM-based scene imaginer to form a unified imagination-and-planning loop. The driving agent predicts initial driving trajectories based on multi-modal inputs, guiding the scene imaginer to generate corresponding future scenarios. These imagined scenarios are subsequently utilized to iteratively refine the driving agent's planning decisions. To address efficiency and predictive accuracy challenges inherent in this integration, we introduce an early stopping mechanism and a trajectory selection strategy. Extensive experimental validation on the nuScenes and NAVSIM datasets demonstrates the robustness and superiority of ImagiDrive over previous alternatives under both open-loop and closed-loop conditions.

Existing Referring Video Object Segmentation tasks focus on referring expressions describing events, actions or appearances of relevant objects within the observed frames, lacking evaluation in scenarios that require pre-decisive spatio-temporal reasoning, thereby limiting their applicability. To address this, we propose Foresight Expression Video Object Segmentation, a task that queries future events in upcoming video segments and requires masks of the objects in the observed frames as visual answers. For example, in ego-centric scenes, the question "What tool will be used?" demands reasoning over spatio-temporal cues to predict the masks of the next tool to be used, which helps with the understanding of future actions and decisions. To support this task, we introduce FeVOS, a dataset with 968 video clips, 14,525 foresight expressions, and 2,904 chain-of-thought annotations to provide explicit and interpretable reasoning steps. We further develop FeVOS-R1, an MLLM-based model trained on our dataset via a two-stage pipeline of supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. FeVOS-R1 not only achieves state-of-the-art performance on FeVOS, but also demonstrates strong generalization to existing RVOS benchmarks. We hope this work can inspire more research on predictive reasoning in video perception.

Autonomous machine learning agents have revolutionized scientific discovery, yet they remain constrained by a Generate-Execute-Feedback paradigm. Previous approaches suffer from a severe Execution Bottleneck, as hypothesis evaluation relies strictly on expensive physical execution. To bypass these physical constraints, we internalize execution priors to substitute costly runtime checks with instantaneous predictive reasoning, drawing inspiration from World Models. In this work, we formalize the task of Data-centric Solution Preference and construct a comprehensive corpus of 18,438 pairwise comparisons. We demonstrate that LLMs exhibit significant predictive capabilities when primed with a Verified Data Analysis Report, achieving 61.5% accuracy and robust confidence calibration. Finally, we instantiate this framework in FOREAGENT, an agent that employs a Predict-then-Verify loop, achieving a 6x acceleration in convergence while surpassing execution-based baselines by +6%. Our code and dataset will be publicly available soon at https://github.com/zjunlp/predict-before-execute.

World models are emerging as a transformative paradigm in artificial intelligence, enabling agents to construct internal representations of their environments for predictive reasoning, planning, and decision-making. By learning latent dynamics, world models provide a sample-efficient framework that is especially valuable in data-constrained or safety-critical scenarios. In this paper, we present a comprehensive overview of world models, highlighting their architecture, training paradigms, and applications across prediction, generation, planning, and causal reasoning. We compare and distinguish world models from related concepts such as digital twins, the metaverse, and foundation models, clarifying their unique role as embedded cognitive engines for autonomous agents. We further propose Wireless Dreamer, a novel world model-based reinforcement learning framework tailored for wireless edge intelligence optimization, particularly in low-altitude wireless networks (LAWNs). Through a weather-aware UAV trajectory planning case study, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in improving learning efficiency and decision quality.

We introduce Agent Process Reward Models (AgentPRM), a simple and scalable framework for training LLM agents to continually improve through interactions. AgentPRM follows a lightweight actor-critic paradigm, using Monte Carlo rollouts to compute reward targets and optimize policies. It requires minimal modifications to existing RLHF pipelines, making it easy to integrate at scale. Beyond AgentPRM, we propose InversePRM, which learns process rewards directly from demonstrations without explicit outcome supervision. We also explore key challenges and opportunities, including exploration, process reward shaping, and model-predictive reasoning. We evaluate on ALFWorld benchmark, show that small 3B models trained with AgentPRM and InversePRM outperform strong GPT-4o baselines, and analyze test-time scaling, reward hacking, and more. Our code is available at: https://github.com/sanjibanc/agent_prm.

Existing spatial reasoning benchmarks mainly test spatial perception: reading off relations already visible in the input. Yet real-world spatial intelligence demands predictive spatial reasoning: constructing a scene from observations, anticipating how an intervention changes it, and reasoning about the unseen outcome. We introduce SpaceCast-Bench, the first benchmark to directly and diagnostically evaluate this capability. Built around an observe-transform-infer framework, its 3,862 questions from 182 real-world scenes span 16 task types at three levels: static perception, local prediction, and global prediction, progressively requiring scene understanding, spatial state updating, and relational inference over unobserved outcomes. Evaluating 21 models exposes a stark gap: the strongest model reaches only 58.0% against 87.2% human performance, while spatially specialized models remain near random chance. Controlled analyses further reveal that bridge views are critical for integrating distributed observations, and that explicit 3D evidence benefits models more reliably than generated outcome images or videos. Fine-tuning on our programmatically generated data lifts Qwen3-VL-4B from 34.0% to 65.7% with macro-average gains across six out-of-domain benchmarks.

Embodied Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has significantly enhanced Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, yet current methods rely on rigid templates to specify reasoning primitives (e.g., objects in the scene, high-level plans, structural affordances). These templates can force policies to process irrelevant information that distracts from critical action-prediction signals. This creates a bottleneck: without successful policies, we cannot verify reasoning quality; without quality reasoning, we cannot build robust policies. We introduce R&B-EnCoRe, which enables models to bootstrap embodied reasoning from internet-scale knowledge through self-supervised refinement. By treating reasoning as a latent variable within importance-weighted variational inference, models can generate and distill a refined reasoning training dataset of embodiment-specific strategies without external rewards, verifiers, or human annotation. We validate R&B-EnCoRe across manipulation (Franka Panda in simulation, WidowX in hardware), legged navigation (bipedal, wheeled, bicycle, quadruped), and autonomous driving embodiments using various VLA architectures with 1B, 4B, 7B, and 30B parameters. Our approach achieves 28% gains in manipulation success, 101% improvement in navigation scores, and 21% reduction in collision-rate metric over models that indiscriminately reason about all available primitives. R&B-EnCoRe enables models to distill reasoning that is predictive of successful control, bypassing manual annotation engineering while grounding internet-scale knowledge in physical execution.

Predicting future spatial states supports collision avoidance and timely decision-making in dynamic environments. However, existing vision-language models (VLMs) and benchmarks for spatial reasoning primarily focus on observed scenes, leaving predictive spatial reasoning beyond the observed interval underexplored. To this end, we introduce SpatialMind, a metric-scale VLM for spatial reasoning and future prediction. Its metric depth adapter anchors spatial reasoning to real-world scale, while its progressive state chain establishes current spatial states and observed dynamics as the foundation for future prediction. Given a video prefix, SpatialMind predicts distances, motion directions, and spatial relations in both observed and unseen future frames. For training and evaluation, we build a scalable data engine that grounds entity descriptions in metric geometry to generate question-answer pairs and state supervision. Using this engine, we construct the SpatialMind-30K dataset and the SpatialMind-2K benchmark, both covering driving and everyday egocentric scenes. The benchmark spans eight tasks across three levels: current-state understanding, observed-dynamics understanding, and future prediction. Experiments show that SpatialMind substantially outperforms both general and spatially specialized models on our benchmark while achieving competitive zero-shot performance on VSI-Bench, OSI-Bench, and VLM4D.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have achieved remarkable progress in robotic manipulation by mapping multimodal observations and instructions directly to actions. However, they typically mimic expert trajectories without predictive motion reasoning, which limits their ability to reason about what actions to take. To address this limitation, we propose joint learning with motion image diffusion, a novel strategy that enhances VLA models with motion reasoning capabilities. Our method extends the VLA architecture with a dual-head design: while the action head predicts action chunks as in vanilla VLAs, an additional motion head, implemented as a Diffusion Transformer (DiT), predicts optical-flow-based motion images that capture future dynamics. The two heads are trained jointly, enabling the shared VLM backbone to learn representations that couple robot control with motion knowledge. This joint learning builds temporally coherent and physically grounded representations without modifying the inference pathway of standard VLAs, thereby maintaining test-time latency. Experiments in both simulation and real-world environments demonstrate that joint learning with motion image diffusion improves the success rate of pi-series VLAs to 97.5% on the LIBERO benchmark and 58.0% on the RoboTwin benchmark, yielding a 23% improvement in real-world performance and validating its effectiveness in enhancing the motion reasoning capability of large-scale VLAs.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of industrial applications, from search and recommendation systems to generative tasks. Although scaling laws indicate that larger models generally yield better generalization and performance, their substantial computational requirements often render them impractical for many real-world scenarios at scale. In this paper, we present a comprehensive set of insights for training and deploying small language models (SLMs) that deliver high performance for a variety of industry use cases. We focus on two key techniques: (1) knowledge distillation and (2) model compression via structured pruning and quantization. These approaches enable SLMs to retain much of the quality of their larger counterparts while significantly reducing training/serving costs and latency. We detail the impact of these techniques on a variety of use cases in a large professional social network platform and share deployment lessons, including hardware optimization strategies that improve speed and throughput for both predictive and reasoning-based applications in Recommendation Systems.

Object-centric learning aims to break down complex visual scenes into more manageable object representations, enhancing the understanding and reasoning abilities of machine learning systems toward the physical world. Recently, slot-based video models have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in segmenting and tracking objects, but they overlook the importance of the effective reasoning module. In the real world, reasoning and predictive abilities play a crucial role in human perception and object tracking; in particular, these abilities are closely related to human intuitive physics. Inspired by this, we designed a novel reasoning module called the Slot-based Time-Space Transformer with Memory buffer (STATM) to enhance the model's perception ability in complex scenes. The memory buffer primarily serves as storage for slot information from upstream modules, the Slot-based Time-Space Transformer makes predictions through slot-based spatiotemporal attention computations and fusion. Our experimental results on various datasets indicate that the STATM module can significantly enhance the capabilities of multiple state-of-the-art object-centric learning models for video. Moreover, as a predictive model, the STATM module also performs well in downstream prediction and Visual Question Answering (VQA) tasks. We will release our codes and data at https://github.com/intell-sci-comput/STATM.

World models must predict how an environment evolves under sequences of actions, enabling agents to compare possible futures and reason about counterfactual actions before acting. Long-horizon prediction is commonly obtained by recursively applying a one-step transition model, but intermediate errors can compound over time. Multi-step dynamics models instead condition on a sequence of future actions and predict their consequences directly, but become harder to learn as horizon grows: the model must track interacting state changes across the trajectory, endpoint supervision provides weak credit assignment, and intermediate predictions can remain plausible while losing information needed for later states. We show that these challenges can be addressed by casting the internal evolution of a multi-step transition as structured reasoning over textual world states: reasoning over sparse state changes reduces the burden of state tracking, a predictive-gain objective rewards the learned state for improving over a matched predictor that conditions on raw history instead, and intermediate predictive rewards supervise each state along the trajectory. Because these intermediate states are explicit textual representations of the world, they provide semantically meaningful targets that can be inspected, scored, and corrected during training. Across ScienceWorld, Jericho, and CEO-Bench, our approach achieves the strongest average long-horizon performance against recursive and non-recursive baselines that condition directly on raw history, with gains increasing at longer horizons. In a controlled counterfactual study, our model is also the only one with statistically significant sensitivity to future actions.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Commercial LLM services often conceal internal reasoning traces while still charging users for every generated token, including those from hidden intermediate steps, raising concerns of token inflation and potential overbilling. This gap underscores the urgent need for reliable token auditing, yet achieving it is far from straightforward: cryptographic verification (e.g., hash-based signature) offers little assurance when providers control the entire execution pipeline, while user-side prediction struggles with the inherent variance of reasoning LLMs, where token usage fluctuates across domains and prompt styles. To bridge this gap, we present PALACE (Predictive Auditing of LLM APIs via Reasoning Token Count Estimation), a user-side framework that estimates hidden reasoning token counts from prompt-answer pairs without access to internal traces. PALACE introduces a GRPO-augmented adaptation module with a lightweight domain router, enabling dynamic calibration across diverse reasoning tasks and mitigating variance in token usage patterns. Experiments on math, coding, medical, and general reasoning benchmarks show that PALACE achieves low relative error and strong prediction accuracy, supporting both fine-grained cost auditing and inflation detection. Taken together, PALACE represents an important first step toward standardized predictive auditing, offering a practical path to greater transparency, accountability, and user trust.

Reinforcement learning (RL) finetuning has become a key technique for enhancing the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). However, its effectiveness critically depends on the selection of training data. Recent advances underscore the importance of online prompt selection methods, which typically concentrate training on partially solved or moderately challenging examples under the current policy, thereby yielding more effective model updates. While significantly accelerating RL finetuning in terms of training steps, they also incur substantial computational overhead by requiring extensive LLM rollouts over large candidate batches to identify informative samples, an expense that can outweigh the finetuning process itself. To address this challenge, this work proposes Dynamics-Predictive Sampling (DPS), which online predicts and selects informative prompts by inferring their learning dynamics prior to costly rollouts. Specifically, we introduce a new perspective by modeling each prompt's solving progress during RL finetuning as a dynamical system, where the extent of solving is represented as the state and the transition is characterized by a hidden Markov model. Using historical rollout reward signals, we perform online Bayesian inference to estimate evolving state distributions, and the inference outcome provides a predictive prior for efficient prompt selection without rollout-intensive filtering. Empirical results across diverse reasoning tasks, including mathematics, planning, and visual geometry, demonstrate that DPS substantially reduces redundant rollouts, accelerates the training process, and achieves superior reasoning performance.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) for reasoning tasks using reinforcement learning methods like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is computationally expensive. To address this, we propose a predictive framework that models training dynamics and helps optimize resource usage. Through experiments on Llama and Qwen models (3B 8B), we derive an empirical scaling law based on model size, initial performance, and training progress. This law predicts reward trajectories and identifies three consistent training phases: slow start, rapid improvement, and plateau. We find that training beyond certain number of an epoch offers little gain, suggesting earlier stopping can significantly reduce compute without sacrificing performance. Our approach generalizes across model types, providing a practical guide for efficient GRPO-based fine-tuning.

Reinforcement learning enhances the reasoning capabilities of large language models but often involves high computational costs due to rollout-intensive optimization. Online prompt selection presents a plausible solution by prioritizing informative prompts to improve training efficiency. However, current methods either depend on costly, exact evaluations or construct prompt-specific predictive models lacking generalization across prompts. This study introduces Generalizable Predictive Prompt Selection (GPS), which performs Bayesian inference towards prompt difficulty using a lightweight generative model trained on the shared optimization history. Intermediate-difficulty prioritization and history-anchored diversity are incorporated into the batch acquisition principle to select informative prompt batches. The small predictive model also generalizes at test-time for efficient computational allocation. Experiments across varied reasoning benchmarks indicate GPS's substantial improvements in training efficiency, final performance, and test-time efficiency over superior baseline methods.

While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) exhibit exceptional 2D visual understanding, their ability to comprehend and reason about 3D space--a cornerstone of spatial intelligence--remains superficial. Current methodologies attempt to bridge this domain gap either by relying on explicit 3D modalities or by augmenting VLMs with partial, view-conditioned geometric priors. However, such approaches hinder scalability and ultimately burden the language model with the ill-posed task of implicitly reconstructing holistic 3D geometry from sparse cues. In this paper, we argue that spatial intelligence can emerge inherently from 2D vision alone, rather than being imposed via explicit spatial instruction tuning. To this end, we introduce Spa3R, a self-supervised framework that learns a unified, view-invariant spatial representation directly from unposed multi-view images. Spa3R is built upon the proposed Predictive Spatial Field Modeling (PSFM) paradigm, where Spa3R learns to synthesize feature fields for arbitrary unseen views conditioned on a compact latent representation, thereby internalizing a holistic and coherent understanding of the underlying 3D scene. We further integrate the pre-trained Spa3R Encoder into existing VLMs via a lightweight adapter to form Spa3-VLM, effectively grounding language reasoning in a global spatial context. Experiments on the challenging VSI-Bench demonstrate that Spa3-VLM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy of 58.6% on 3D VQA, significantly outperforming prior methods. These results highlight PSFM as a scalable path toward advancing spatial intelligence. Code is available at https://github.com/hustvl/Spa3R.

In reasoning about sequential events it is natural to pose probabilistic queries such as "when will event A occur next" or "what is the probability of A occurring before B", with applications in areas such as user modeling, medicine, and finance. However, with machine learning shifting towards neural autoregressive models such as RNNs and transformers, probabilistic querying has been largely restricted to simple cases such as next-event prediction. This is in part due to the fact that future querying involves marginalization over large path spaces, which is not straightforward to do efficiently in such models. In this paper we introduce a general typology for predictive queries in neural autoregressive sequence models and show that such queries can be systematically represented by sets of elementary building blocks. We leverage this typology to develop new query estimation methods based on beam search, importance sampling, and hybrids. Across four large-scale sequence datasets from different application domains, as well as for the GPT-2 language model, we demonstrate the ability to make query answering tractable for arbitrary queries in exponentially-large predictive path-spaces, and find clear differences in cost-accuracy tradeoffs between search and sampling methods.

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves 2 times median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about 20 times more sample efficient than the successor representation and 1500 times more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

Large Language Models have demonstrated remarkable abilities in reasoning and planning by breaking down complex problems into sequential steps. Despite their success in various domains like mathematical problem-solving and coding, LLMs face challenges in ensuring reliable and optimal planning due to their inherent myopic nature of autoregressive decoding. This paper revisits LLM reasoning from an optimal-control perspective, proposing a novel method, Predictive-Decoding, that leverages Model Predictive Control to enhance planning accuracy. By re-weighting LLM distributions based on foresight trajectories, Predictive-Decoding aims to mitigate early errors and promote non-myopic planning. Our experiments show significant improvements in a wide range of tasks for math, coding, and agents. Furthermore, Predictive-Decoding demonstrates computational efficiency, outperforming search baselines with reduced computational resources. This study provides insights into optimizing LLM planning capabilities.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently achieved impressive performance across a wide range of natural language tasks and are now widely used in real-world applications. Among them, black-box LLMs--served via APIs without access to model internals--are especially dominant due to their scalability and ease of deployment. Despite their strong capabilities, these models typically produce generalized responses that overlook personal preferences and reasoning styles. This has led to growing interest in black-box LLM personalization, which aims to tailor model outputs to user-specific context without modifying model parameters. However, existing approaches primarily focus on response-level personalization, attempting to match final outputs without modeling personal thought process. To address this limitation, we propose RPM, a framework for reasoning-level personalization that aligns the model's reasoning process with a user's personalized logic. RPM first constructs statistical user-specific factors by extracting and grouping response-influential features from user history. It then builds personalized reasoning paths that reflect how these factors are used in context. In the inference stage, RPM retrieves reasoning-aligned examples for new queries via feature-level similarity and performs inference conditioned on the structured factors and retrieved reasoning paths, enabling the model to follow user-specific reasoning trajectories. This reasoning-level personalization enhances both predictive accuracy and interpretability by grounding model outputs in user-specific logic through structured information. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks show that RPM consistently outperforms response-level personalization methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of reasoning-level personalization in black-box LLMs.

Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture (MMLA) separates slow base parameters theta, a bounded numerical policy carrier Phi, and a bounded authoritative memory M. Predictive Dual-State Adaptation (PDSA) lets feedback update Phi while one problem remains active and lets a trusted lifecycle atomically commit one typed row or exact NULL. Later reasoning may read both states, but their writers, resets, rollback domains, and ledgers remain distinct. Realized futures supervise values only during training; deployment is causal and future-blind. We give conditional theory and falsifiable contracts for reasoning-time updates, completed-segment consolidation, predictive admission, authoritative memory, and dual-state attribution. Assumptions, counterexamples, capacity and cost ledgers, recovery duties, and identifying experiments are explicit; these are not implementation guarantees. Controlled studies show exact lifecycle execution on 300/300 held-out records for each of three seeds, calibrated retrieval gains over frozen-hidden dense and BM25 baselines, and exact typed anchor-filler transport on 240/240 held-out records per seed. These validate restricted components, not natural-language memory management or complete PDSA. Post-training studies retain positive and negative evidence. Later protocols obtain restricted readout progress, but a nine-trajectory comparison finds that matched latent readout, a full-width bridge, and bridge plus frozen text-teacher alignment all fail continuous-event qualification across both task families. A separately adapted text reference and restoration checks pass. At the September 13, 2026 evidence cutoff, no strict policy-only reasoning-time-training effect, predictive-admission oracle margin, learned future-blind admission policy, or policy-by-memory factorial advantage is established.

Multimodal reasoning provides robotic foundation models with predictive context needed for reliable action generation. However, language-based reasoning captures task semantics but struggles to express fine-grained physical dynamics, while latent reasoning models future state evolution but offers limited structure for organizing these dynamics into reusable reasoning primitives. To bridge this gap, we introduce PhysWord, a reasoning-before-acting foundation model built on Physical Words, which use atomic action verbs as shared semantic anchors for continuous representations of physical dynamics. Specifically, PhysWord predicts upcoming atomic action words and directly aligns their contextual hidden states with latent targets derived from the corresponding future observations. Building on these primitives, we construct a temporally structured PhysWord space with visual and optional tactile variants of each action word. Autoregressively predicting Physical Words across future timesteps captures transitions between execution stages, providing structured multimodal context for action generation. PhysWord achieves state-of-the-art success rates of 90.3\% on visuotactile UniVTAC and 99.6\% on vision-based LIBERO-Long, and outperforms competing methods on real-world tasks using bimanual grippers and dexterous hands. Further evaluations demonstrate that our structured latent reasoning framework generalizes to unseen scenarios and enables long-horizon manipulation. Project page: https://nvidia-isaac.github.io/video_to_data/physicalword/

While Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) has emerged as a powerful architecture for learning rich latent representations, it fundamentally lacks generative abilities. Meanwhile, current latent reasoning models remain limited by the token-by-token generation paradigm, which suffers from compounding errors and heavy context dependency. To address these limitations, we proposed JEPA-Reasoner, a novel JEPA-based architecture enhanced with generative ability for latent reasoning. We augment this architecture with a separate action-talker model, Talker, to reconstruct human-readable text from latent representations produced by the JEPA-Reasoner. Our work demonstrated that decoupling latent-space reasoning from token production enables JEPA-Reasoner to produce mixed latent vectors, laying a foundation for multi-threaded reasoning and achieving superior robustness against compounding errors in autoregressive generation.

Long-context inference enhances the reasoning capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), but incurs significant computational overhead. Token-oriented methods, such as pruning and skipping, have shown great promise in reducing inference latency, yet still suffer from inherently insufficient structure optimization, outdated selection criteria, and redundancy interference, resulting in suboptimal speed-accuracy trade-off. To address these issues, we propose a novel training-free framework dubbed Self-Predictive Token Skipping (SPTS), for efficient long-context LLM inference. Specifically, motivated by probing the influence of target layers prior to skipping, we design two selective token skipping strategies for typical structures, including Partial Attention Probing (PAP) for multi-head attention and Low-rank Transformation Probing (LTP) for feed forward network. The former selects informative tokens via partial forward attention computation, while the latter constructs a low-rank proxy network to predict token transformations. In addition, a Multi-Stage Delayed Pruning (MSDP) strategy reallocates skipping budgets and progressively removes redundant tokens across layers. Extensive experiments display the effectiveness of our method, achieving up to 2.46times and 2.29times speedups for prefilling and end-to-end generation, respectively, while maintaining state-of-the-art accuracy. We will release the source code upon acceptance.

Multimodal large language models increasingly use visual chain-of-thought (Visual CoT) to reason about spatial, temporal, and embodied environments. By generating intermediate reasoning images, Visual CoT provides an intuitive mechanism for visual foresight but introduces substantial inference overhead, which is particularly problematic for proactive video reasoning. We ask whether models can learn to think visually during training while reasoning directly at inference. We introduce Internalized Visual Thinking (IVT), a post-training framework that jointly optimizes textual prediction and next-embedding prediction over unlabeled videos. Given a partially observed video, IVT predicts latent representations of future frames together with the target textual answer, encouraging the model to capture motion, object transitions, interactions, and latent intent. At inference, IVT generates the answer directly without synthesizing or re-encoding future frames. We conduct controlled studies across target representations, decoder designs, prediction horizons, data mixtures, training curricula, and predictive objectives. IVT improves over direct-answer fine-tuning on all six evaluation settings while retaining the same inference pathway. Compared with explicit Visual CoT, IVT achieves comparable or better performance and reduces average end-to-end latency by more than 5x. Together, our findings suggest that explicit pixel-space generation at inference time, as used in visual chain-of-thought, may not be necessary for effective proactive video reasoning. Predictive world modeling can be internalized during training to produce multimodal reasoners that are both more accurate and substantially more efficient.

Power sampling improves large language model (LLM) reasoning at test time by sampling from a sharpened version of the base model's distribution. Its sampler, PowerMH, is slow because its Metropolis--Hastings (MH) updates are sequential: each accept/reject decision sets the state from which the next proposal is generated. Prior work reduces this cost by changing the sampler or the model (e.g., sequential Monte Carlo, approximate lookahead, distillation). We propose Predictive SubTree Prefetching (PreSTO), which accelerates PowerMH by prefetching future proposals and provably leaves its MH transition kernel unchanged. PreSTO views future MH outcomes as a tree of accept/reject decisions: in each model call, it generates the proposals of a prefetched subtree of this tree in one batch, then follows the realized path with the original MH acceptance rule. We also observe that MH reaches only a sparse, nearly unary part of each prefetched subtree, we further design a predictive traversal rule that chooses the subtree to maximize the predicted number of completed transitions. Across seven datasets and five base LLMs, PreSTO achieves median speedups of 1.71times, 1.91times, and 2.33times on PowerMH and its follow-ups EntropyCut and MultiTryMH, respectively; on the first two, it makes a median of 3.9times fewer model calls, each only 2.1times longer. On LCB V6 with Qwen3.5-9B, the predictive traversal rule is a further 1.25times--1.37times faster than the default breadth-first traversal.

Urban navigation requires embodied agents to pursue long-horizon goals through local decisions based on egocentric observations. However, existing agentic navigation methods often struggle to translate distant goals into coherent local decisions in large-scale physical environments. Their reliance on linguistic reasoning over transient observations or limited history constrains anticipation of the consequences of actions and future conditions, despite the importance of such foresight for navigating long and complex urban routes. To bridge this gap, we propose PreAct-Nav, an agentic navigation framework that equips frozen policies with anticipatory reasoning for robust urban navigation. Our central idea is to anchor local decisions in persistent medium-horizon subgoals, assess the consequences of predicted actions before execution, and continually update the reasoning context using actual outcomes. At its core, a navigation memory module maintains the active subgoal and relevant experience across decisions, translating distant goals into actionable intermediate objectives. We further introduce a predictive world sandbox that uses an action-conditioned world model (AC-WM) to forecast world dynamics conditioned on candidate movements. A vision-language model (VLM) reasoner interprets these predictions under the current subgoal to retain or revise actions. After execution, real observations are used to assess outcomes, correct inconsistent assumptions, and update memory to continue or reformulate the subgoal. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that the proposed PreAct-Nav improves action selection through memory updates and visual prediction, with more pronounced gains on longer routes and routes with more turns.

Recent advances have witnessed the effectiveness of reinforcement learning (RL) finetuning in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). The optimization process often requires numerous iterations to achieve satisfactory performance, resulting in high computational costs due to the need for frequent prompt evaluations under intensive LLM interactions and repeated policy updates. Appropriate online prompt selection methods reduce iteration steps by prioritizing informative prompts during training, while the pipeline's reliance on exhaustive prompt evaluation and subset selection for optimization still incurs substantial computational overhead due to frequent LLM inference calls. Distinguished from these direct evaluate-then-select schemes, this work investigates iterative approximate evaluation for arbitrary prompts and introduces Model Predictive Prompt Selection (MoPPS), a Bayesian risk-predictive framework that online estimates prompt difficulty without requiring costly LLM interactions. Technically, MoPPS models each prompt's success rate as a latent variable, performs streaming Bayesian inference, and employs posterior sampling in a constructed multi-armed bandit machine, enabling sample efficient and adaptive prompt selection. Extensive experiments across mathematics, planning, and vision-based geometry tasks show that MoPPS reliably predicts prompt difficulty and accelerates training with significantly reduced LLM rollouts.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled molecular reasoning for property prediction. However, toxicity arises from complex biological mechanisms beyond chemical structure, necessitating mechanistic reasoning for reliable prediction. Despite its importance, current benchmarks fail to systematically evaluate this capability. LLMs can generate fluent but biologically unfaithful explanations, making it difficult to assess whether predicted toxicities are grounded invalid mechanisms. To bridge this gap, we introduce ToxReason, a benchmark grounded in the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) that evaluates organ-level toxicity reasoning across multiple organs. ToxReason integrates experimental drug-target interaction evidence with toxicity labels, requiring models to infer both toxic outcomes and their underlying mechanisms from Molecular Initiating Event (MIE) to Adverse Outcome (AO). Using ToxReason, we evaluate toxicity prediction performance and reasoning quality across diverse LLMs. We find that strong predictive performance does not necessarily imply reliable reasoning. Furthermore, we show that reasoning-aware training improves mechanistic reasoning and, consequently, toxicity prediction performance. Together, these results underscore the necessity of integrating reasoning into both evaluation and training for trustworthy toxicity modeling.

Reasoning capability has advanced rapidly in large language models (LLMs), leading to an increasing size of key-value (KV) cache in both prefilling and decoding stages. Existing KV cache compression methods mainly rely on attention weights to estimate token importance. While attention effectively captures contextual relevance, it overlooks complementary information-theoretic signals related to predictive uncertainty and token informativeness. In this paper, we revisit token importance from a forward-looking perspective and introduce Forward Influence, a metric that measures how compressed tokens affect future contexts. Our analysis reveals that tokens selected by attention scores mainly influence nearby contexts, whereas tokens associated with high predictive uncertainty exhibit substantially stronger influence on distant future contexts. Based on the observation, we propose InfoKV, an entropy-aware KV cache compression framework that incorporates information-theoretic signals. It combines token-level predictive uncertainty with layer-wise representation evolution and integrates the resulting entropy scores with attention scores during reasoning. Experiments on long-context reasoning benchmarks with Llama-3.1, Llama-3.2, and DeepSeek-R1 demonstrate that InfoKV consistently outperforms existing attention-based KV compression methods in both long prefilling and decoding scenarios.

Understanding and navigating human-centered environments over extended periods of time while considering human behavior and routines remains a fundamental challenge in robotics. In real-world settings, robots may be asked to locate a specific individual, predict where that person is likely to be, or estimate when they typically leave a building. Addressing such queries requires reasoning over extensive histories of observations and capturing long-term behavioral patterns. To this end, we introduce Human-Centered Memory for Embodied Robots (HUMEMBR), a system designed for embodied question answering and routine-conditioned navigation. HUMEMBR integrates a continuous memory construction process with a parallel retrieval and querying mechanism, enabling the system to accumulate structured representations of human routines while supporting interactive, user-driven queries. Our experimental results indicate that HUMEMBR improves long-horizon reasoning about human behavior relative to full-context LLM baselines, while using substantially fewer tokens. Furthermore, we deploy HUMEMBR on a physical robot in two distinct environments, showing its ability to handle diverse queries and navigation tasks under real-world conditions.

Key-value (KV) cache growth is a major bottleneck in autoregressive decoding, as memory and bandwidth scale linearly with context length. Existing KV eviction methods often rely on static heuristics or proxy scores, which poorly track future token utility and cause brittle eviction as relevance shifts. To address this, we introduce KVpop, which learns a fixed-budget KV eviction policy by directly supervising the keep-or-drop decision. The scorer is trained against a novel future-attention target, computed efficiently without materializing dense attention maps. We further introduce a delayed memory-based scorer that, uniquely among learned eviction methods, defers scoring for a fixed number of steps to exploit near-future context. On AIME and HMMT mathematical reasoning, KVpop retains 98% of full-attention performance on Qwen3-4B at 75% KV cache compression and 97% at 88% compression, consistently outperforming established eviction baselines. Qwen3-8B shows even stronger results, reaching near-full teacher performance. These results show that supervising eviction with future-attention signals cuts memory costs while maintaining quality.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance at scale. However, reinforcement learning (RL) on MoE-based LLMs often suffers from training instability. A root cause is router drift, i.e., expert activations can change drastically across model updates and differ between disaggregated rollout and training phases, causing large rollout--training mismatch and unstable importance sampling weights in PPO-style RL algorithms. Routing replay mitigates this issue by freezing the replay route within each reasoning trajectory, but it ignores how the router evolves under off-policy updates and thus causes router staleness. To address this limitation, we propose Predictive Routing Replay (PR2), which augments each router with a lightweight evolution predictor that learns to anticipate short-horizon router evolution. During the rollout phase, we use the predictive routing distribution to apply top-k routing, enabling gradients to reach experts that are likely to become active after updates. During the training phase, we replay the resulting predicted route to retain consistency for stable importance estimation. Theoretical analysis and experiments support that PR2 reduces routing-induced mismatch, improves RL stability, and yields stronger performance across various reasoning benchmarks.

As chain of thought (CoT) has become central to scaling reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), it has also emerged as a promising tool for interpretability, suggesting the opportunity to understand model decisions through verbalized reasoning. However, the utility of CoT toward interpretability depends upon its faithfulness---whether the model's stated reasoning reflects the underlying decision process. We provide mechanistic evidence that instruction-tuned models often determine their answer before generating CoT. Training linear probes on residual stream activations at the last token before CoT, we can predict the model's final answer with >0.9 AUC on most tasks. We find that these directions are not only predictive, but also causal: steering activations along the probe direction often flips model answers, with flip rates substantially exceeding norm-matched orthogonal baselines across most model-dataset pairs. When steering induces incorrect answers, we observe two distinct failure modes: confabulation (fabricating false premises) and non-entailment (stating correct premises but drawing unsupported conclusions). While post-hoc reasoning may be instrumentally useful when the model has a correct pre-CoT belief, these failure modes suggest it can result in undesirable behaviors when reasoning from a false belief.

Current Natural Language Inference (NLI) models achieve impressive results, sometimes outperforming humans when evaluating on in-distribution test sets. However, as these models are known to learn from annotation artefacts and dataset biases, it is unclear to what extent the models are learning the task of NLI instead of learning from shallow heuristics in their training data. We address this issue by introducing a logical reasoning framework for NLI, creating highly transparent model decisions that are based on logical rules. Unlike prior work, we show that improved interpretability can be achieved without decreasing the predictive accuracy. We almost fully retain performance on SNLI, while also identifying the exact hypothesis spans that are responsible for each model prediction. Using the e-SNLI human explanations, we verify that our model makes sensible decisions at a span level, despite not using any span labels during training. We can further improve model performance and span-level decisions by using the e-SNLI explanations during training. Finally, our model is more robust in a reduced data setting. When training with only 1,000 examples, out-of-distribution performance improves on the MNLI matched and mismatched validation sets by 13% and 16% relative to the baseline. Training with fewer observations yields further improvements, both in-distribution and out-of-distribution.

Generalist robot manipulation can benefit from pretrained vision-language models (VLMs) for semantic reasoning and video generation models (VGMs) for world modeling. However, existing unified models that directly fuse them through shared attention at multiple layers can make it harder to draw on their specialized capabilities. We introduce PINT, a unified model that coordinates semantic reasoning, world modeling, and action generation through a shared chunk-level Predictive Intent while preserving expert-specific pathways. PINT inserts learnable Intent Tokens into the VLM sequence to form this representation, conditioning both the VGM and an Action Expert (AE). It replaces only the VGM's prompt conditioning and retains the VGM at inference, where the AE reads its representations through one-way attention. Rather than prescribing what Predictive Intent should encode, PINT learns it jointly from the native prediction objectives of the VLM, VGM, and AE, which provide complementary views of the same upcoming task execution. Training uses two stages: Stage 1 freezes the VGM so that future video prediction shapes Predictive Intent with task-relevant future dynamics, while Stage 2 fixes the learned Intent and adapts the VGM and AE. Without embodied pretraining, PINT achieves strong in-distribution (ID) performance and substantially improves out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, reaching 15.5% on RoboTwin 2.0-Hard compared with 1.8% for Fast-WAM and 3.2% for StarVLA, and 79.5% on LIBERO-Plus compared with 51.5% and 75.0%, respectively. Across five real-world bimanual tasks, PINT reaches 68% ID and 24% OOD success, compared with 35%/9% for pretrained Motus and 67%/35% for pretrained π_{0.5}.

In this paper, we introduce the first large-scale video prediction model in the autonomous driving discipline. To eliminate the restriction of high-cost data collection and empower the generalization ability of our model, we acquire massive data from the web and pair it with diverse and high-quality text descriptions. The resultant dataset accumulates over 2000 hours of driving videos, spanning areas all over the world with diverse weather conditions and traffic scenarios. Inheriting the merits from recent latent diffusion models, our model, dubbed GenAD, handles the challenging dynamics in driving scenes with novel temporal reasoning blocks. We showcase that it can generalize to various unseen driving datasets in a zero-shot manner, surpassing general or driving-specific video prediction counterparts. Furthermore, GenAD can be adapted into an action-conditioned prediction model or a motion planner, holding great potential for real-world driving applications.

Language models are known to absorb biases from their training data, leading to predictions driven by statistical regularities rather than semantic relevance. We investigate the impact of these biases on answer choice preferences in the Massive Multi-Task Language Understanding (MMLU) task. Our findings reveal that differences in learned regularities across answer options are predictive of model preferences and mirror human test-taking strategies. To address this issue, we introduce two novel methods: Counterfactual Prompting with Chain of Thought (CoT) and Counterfactual Prompting with Agnostically Primed CoT (APriCoT). We demonstrate that while Counterfactual Prompting with CoT alone is insufficient to mitigate bias, our novel Primed Counterfactual Prompting with CoT approach effectively reduces the influence of base-rate probabilities while improving overall accuracy. Our results suggest that mitigating bias requires a "System-2" like process and that CoT reasoning is susceptible to confirmation bias under some prompting methodologies. Our contributions offer practical solutions for developing more robust and fair language models.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in challenging tasks such as mathematical reasoning, existing methods to enhance reasoning ability predominantly rely on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) followed by reinforcement learning (RL) on reasoning-specific data after pre-training. However, these approaches critically depend on external supervisions--such as human labelled reasoning traces, verified golden answers, or pre-trained reward models--which limits scalability and practical applicability. In this work, we propose Entropy Minimized Policy Optimization (EMPO), which makes an early attempt at fully unsupervised LLM reasoning incentivization. EMPO does not require any supervised information for incentivizing reasoning capabilities (i.e., neither verifiable reasoning traces, problems with golden answers, nor additional pre-trained reward models). By continuously minimizing the predictive entropy of LLMs on unlabeled user queries in a latent semantic space, EMPO enables purely self-supervised evolution of reasoning capabilities with strong flexibility and practicality. Our experiments demonstrate competitive performance of EMPO on both mathematical reasoning and free-form commonsense reasoning tasks. Specifically, without any supervised signals, EMPO boosts the accuracy of Qwen2.5-Math-7B Base from 30.7\% to 48.1\% on mathematical benchmarks and improves truthfulness accuracy of Qwen2.5-7B Instruct from 87.16\% to 97.25\% on TruthfulQA.

Current Chain-of-Thought (CoT) verification methods predict reasoning correctness based on outputs (black-box) or activations (gray-box), but offer limited insight into why a computation fails. We introduce a white-box method: Circuit-based Reasoning Verification (CRV). We hypothesize that attribution graphs of correct CoT steps, viewed as execution traces of the model's latent reasoning circuits, possess distinct structural fingerprints from those of incorrect steps. By training a classifier on structural features of these graphs, we show that these traces contain a powerful signal of reasoning errors. Our white-box approach yields novel scientific insights unattainable by other methods. (1) We demonstrate that structural signatures of error are highly predictive, establishing the viability of verifying reasoning directly via its computational graph. (2) We find these signatures to be highly domain-specific, revealing that failures in different reasoning tasks manifest as distinct computational patterns. (3) We provide evidence that these signatures are not merely correlational; by using our analysis to guide targeted interventions on individual transcoder features, we successfully correct the model's faulty reasoning. Our work shows that, by scrutinizing a model's computational process, we can move from simple error detection to a deeper, causal understanding of LLM reasoning.

Large language models (LLMs) now exhibit strong multi-step reasoning abilities, but existing inference-time scaling methods remain computationally expensive, often relying on extensive sampling or external evaluators. We propose a principled strategy that frames reasoning as uncertainty minimisation and operates at the level of individual thoughts rather than tokens. Our method selects, at each reasoning step, the continuation that maximizes the model's self-certainty, a metric computed from its internal predictive distribution. This approach achieves significant improvement with a small number of samples, relies exclusively on model-internal signals, and applies to open-ended questions as opposed to methods like majority voting. Experiments on MATH500 and GSM8K across multiple model sizes demonstrate that thought-level self-certainty maximization consistently outperforms greedy decoding and matches or exceeds self-consistency under comparable token budgets. Cross-linguistic evaluations further indicate that the method transfers robustly beyond high-resource languages. Furthermore, analysis of self-certainty dynamics reveals that correct reasoning trajectories converge early to stable paths, suggesting that early decisions, likely associated with the planning of the reasoning process, are predictive of final accuracy. Building on this result, we show that self-certainty maximisation applied to the early steps can explain most of the performance gain and provide a simple yet efficient inference-time scaling method.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and multi-agent systems have shown impressive capabilities in natural language tasks but face challenges in clinical trial applications, primarily due to limited access to external knowledge. Recognizing the potential of advanced clinical trial tools that aggregate and predict based on the latest medical data, we propose an integrated solution to enhance their accessibility and utility. We introduce Clinical Agent System (ClinicalAgent), a clinical multi-agent system designed for clinical trial tasks, leveraging GPT-4, multi-agent architectures, LEAST-TO-MOST, and ReAct reasoning technology. This integration not only boosts LLM performance in clinical contexts but also introduces novel functionalities. The proposed method achieves competitive predictive performance in clinical trial outcome prediction (0.7908 PR-AUC), obtaining a 0.3326 improvement over the standard prompt Method. Publicly available code can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ClinicalAgent-6671.

Recent advancements in prompting techniques for Large Language Models (LLMs) have improved their reasoning, planning, and action abilities. This paper examines these prompting techniques through the lens of model predictive control (MPC). We show that LLMs act as implicit planning cost function minimizers when planning prompts are used. Under our framework we demonstrate that LLM planning performance can be improved further by incorporating real planning cost functions and evaluators.

The differential diagnosis of neurodegenerative dementias is a challenging clinical task, mainly because of the overlap in symptom presentation and the similarity of patterns observed in structural neuroimaging. To improve diagnostic efficiency and accuracy, deep learning-based methods such as Convolutional Neural Networks and Vision Transformers have been proposed for the automatic classification of brain MRIs. However, despite their strong predictive performance, these models find limited clinical utility due to their opaque decision making. In this work, we propose a framework that integrates two core components to enhance diagnostic transparency. First, we introduce a modular pipeline for converting 3D T1-weighted brain MRIs into textual radiology reports. Second, we explore the potential of modern Large Language Models (LLMs) to assist clinicians in the differential diagnosis between Frontotemporal dementia subtypes, Alzheimer's disease, and normal aging based on the generated reports. To bridge the gap between predictive accuracy and explainability, we employ reinforcement learning to incentivize diagnostic reasoning in LLMs. Without requiring supervised reasoning traces or distillation from larger models, our approach enables the emergence of structured diagnostic rationales grounded in neuroimaging findings. Unlike post-hoc explainability methods that retrospectively justify model decisions, our framework generates diagnostic rationales as part of the inference process-producing causally grounded explanations that inform and guide the model's decision-making process. In doing so, our framework matches the diagnostic performance of existing deep learning methods while offering rationales that support its diagnostic conclusions.

Existing reasoning segmentation approaches typically fine-tune multimodal large language models (MLLMs) using image-text pairs and corresponding mask labels. However, they exhibit limited generalization to out-of-distribution scenarios without an explicit reasoning process. Although recent efforts leverage reinforcement learning through group-relative policy optimization (GRPO) to enhance reasoning ability, they often suffer from overthinking - producing uniformly verbose reasoning chains irrespective of task complexity. This results in elevated computational costs and limited control over reasoning quality. To address this problem, we propose PixelThink, a simple yet effective scheme that integrates externally estimated task difficulty and internally measured model uncertainty to regulate reasoning generation within a reinforcement learning paradigm. The model learns to compress reasoning length in accordance with scene complexity and predictive confidence. To support comprehensive evaluation, we introduce ReasonSeg-Diff, an extended benchmark with annotated reasoning references and difficulty scores, along with a suite of metrics designed to assess segmentation accuracy, reasoning quality, and efficiency jointly. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves both reasoning efficiency and overall segmentation performance. Our work contributes novel perspectives towards efficient and interpretable multimodal understanding. The code and model will be publicly available.

This study investigates the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for predicting human-perceived misery scores from natural language descriptions of real-world scenarios. The task is framed as a regression problem, where the model assigns a scalar value from 0 to 100 to each input statement. We evaluate multiple prompting strategies, including zero-shot, fixed-context few-shot, and retrieval-based prompting using BERT sentence embeddings. Few-shot approaches consistently outperform zero-shot baselines, underscoring the value of contextual examples in affective prediction. To move beyond static evaluation, we introduce the "Misery Game Show", a novel gamified framework inspired by a television format. It tests LLMs through structured rounds involving ordinal comparison, binary classification, scalar estimation, and feedback-driven reasoning. This setup enables us to assess not only predictive accuracy but also the model's ability to adapt based on corrective feedback. The gamified evaluation highlights the broader potential of LLMs in dynamic emotional reasoning tasks beyond standard regression. Code and data link: https://github.com/abhi1nandy2/Misery_Data_Exps_GitHub

Drug discovery is a complex and resource-intensive process, making early prediction of approval outcomes critical for optimizing research investments. While classical machine learning and deep learning methods have shown promise in drug approval prediction, their limited interpretability constraints their impact. Here, we present DrugReasoner, a reasoning-based large language model (LLM) built on the LLaMA architecture and fine-tuned with group relative policy optimization (GRPO) to predict the likelihood of small-molecule approval. DrugReasoner integrates molecular descriptors with comparative reasoning against structurally similar approved and unapproved compounds, generating predictions alongside step-by-step rationales and confidence scores. DrugReasoner achieved robust performance with an AUC of 0.732 and an F1 score of 0.729 on the validation set and 0.725 and 0.718 on the test set, respectively. These results outperformed conventional baselines, including logistic regression, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors and had competitive performance relative to XGBoost. On an external independent dataset, DrugReasoner outperformed both baseline and the recently developed ChemAP model, achieving an AUC of 0.728 and an F1-score of 0.774, while maintaining high precision and balanced sensitivity, demonstrating robustness in real-world scenarios. These findings demonstrate that DrugReasoner not only delivers competitive predictive accuracy but also enhances transparency through its reasoning outputs, thereby addressing a key bottleneck in AI-assisted drug discovery. This study highlights the potential of reasoning-augmented LLMs as interpretable and effective tools for pharmaceutical decision-making.

Image-based Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (I-JEPA) learns visual representations by predicting latent embeddings of masked regions from visible context. However, it treats all regions uniformly and independently, lacking an explicit notion of where or in what order predictions should be made. Inspired by human visual perception, which deploys attention selectively and sequentially from the most informative to secondary regions, we propose DSeq-JEPA, a Discriminative Sequential Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture that bridges predictive and autoregressive self-supervised learning, integrating JEPA-style latent prediction with GPT-style sequential reasoning. Specifically, DSeq-JEPA (i) first identifies primary discriminative regions based on a transformer-derived saliency map, emphasizing the distribution of visual importance, and then (ii) predicts subsequent regions in this discriminative order, progressively forming a curriculum-like semantic progression from primary to secondary cues -- a form of GPT-style pre-training. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks, including image classification (ImageNet), fine-grained visual categorization (iNaturalist21, CUB-200-2011, Stanford-Cars), detection and segmentation (MS-COCO, ADE20K), and low-level reasoning tasks (Clevr/Count, Clevr/Dist), demonstrate that DSeq-JEPA consistently focuses on more discriminative and generalizable representations than I-JEPA variants. Project page: https://github.com/SkyShunsuke/DSeq-JEPA.

Multivariate time series data typically comprises two distinct modalities: variable semantics and sampled numerical observations. Traditional time series models treat variables as anonymous statistical signals, overlooking the rich semantic information embedded in variable names and data descriptions. However, these textual descriptors often encode critical domain knowledge that is essential for robust and interpretable modeling. Here we present TimeMKG, a multimodal causal reasoning framework that elevates time series modeling from low-level signal processing to knowledge informed inference. TimeMKG employs large language models to interpret variable semantics and constructs structured Multivariate Knowledge Graphs that capture inter-variable relationships. A dual-modality encoder separately models the semantic prompts, generated from knowledge graph triplets, and the statistical patterns from historical time series. Cross-modality attention aligns and fuses these representations at the variable level, injecting causal priors into downstream tasks such as forecasting and classification, providing explicit and interpretable priors to guide model reasoning. The experiment in diverse datasets demonstrates that incorporating variable-level knowledge significantly improves both predictive performance and generalization.

Sequential recommendation increasingly employs latent multi-step reasoning to enhance test-time computation. Despite empirical gains, existing approaches largely drive intermediate reasoning states via target-dominant objectives without imposing explicit feasibility constraints. This results in latent drift, where reasoning trajectories deviate into implausible regions. We argue that effective recommendation reasoning should instead be viewed as navigation on a collaborative manifold rather than free-form latent refinement. To this end, we propose ManCAR (Manifold-Constrained Adaptive Reasoning), a principled framework that grounds reasoning within the topology of a global interaction graph. ManCAR constructs a local intent prior from the collaborative neighborhood of a user's recent actions, represented as a distribution over the item simplex. During training, the model progressively aligns its latent predictive distribution with this prior, forcing the reasoning trajectory to remain within the valid manifold. At test time, reasoning proceeds adaptively until the predictive distribution stabilizes, avoiding over-refinement. We provide a variational interpretation of ManCAR to theoretically validate its drift-prevention and adaptive test-time stopping mechanisms. Experiments on seven benchmarks demonstrate that ManCAR consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving up to a 46.88% relative improvement w.r.t. NDCG@10. Our code is available at https://github.com/FuCongResearchSquad/ManCAR.

Distilling large reasoning models is essential for making Long-CoT reasoning practical, as full-scale inference remains computationally prohibitive. Existing curation-based approaches select complete reasoning traces post-hoc, overlooking collaboration among heterogeneous teachers and lacking dynamic exploration, which leads to redundant sampling and missed complementary reasoning. We introduce CoRD, a collaborative multi-teacher decoding framework that performs step-wise reasoning synthesis guided by predictive perplexity-based scoring and beam search. This enables heterogeneous LRMs to jointly construct coherent reasoning trajectories while efficiently preserving diverse, high-potential hypotheses. Experiments show that CoRD produces higher-quality reasoning data and achieves near teacher-level student performance with fewer, structured supervision signals, without substantial efficiency overhead. CoRD further generalizes well to out-of-domain and open-ended settings. The dataset and model are available at https://github.com/DISL-Lab/CoRD{https://github.com/DISL-Lab/CoRD}.

Predicting human item difficulty is central to educational assessment, where reliable estimates support fairness and effective test construction. Existing methods often depend on costly human calibration or item-level textual representations, providing limited evidence about the cognitive processes that make items difficult. We argue that difficulty should be viewed not only as a property of item text, but also as an observable consequence of the problem-solving burden an item induces. Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) offer scalable process evidence through reasoning traces, but such evidence must be structured to support interpretable modeling. To this end, we introduce Epi2Diff (Episode to Difficulty), a framework that maps LRM reasoning traces into cognitively grounded episode sequences. These episodes group trace segments into functional problem-solving states, enabling difficulty to be modeled through reasoning scale, effort allocation, and state transitions. Epi2Diff extracts compact episode-dynamic features and combines them with semantic item representations for human difficulty prediction. Experiments on four real-world human difficulty datasets show that Epi2Diff consistently outperforms strong baselines, including fine-tuned small language models, LLM in-context learning, and supervised LLM adaptation. On SAT-derived classification benchmarks, Epi2Diff achieves an 8.1% average relative gain over supervised LLM fine-tuning baselines. Further analyses show that harder items induce more effortful, iterative, and implementation-centered episode dynamics, rather than merely longer responses. These results demonstrate that cognitive episodes in LRM reasoning traces provide a predictive and interpretable process representation for human item difficulty, offering a new lens for educational measurement with reasoning models.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become central to improving large language models (LLMs) on complex reasoning tasks, yet RL post-training is largely studied in isolation from the pretraining that precedes it. As a result, two basic questions remain open: (1) how do pretraining choices (model size, data) shape the returns to RL compute, and (2) what does RL actually do to the model? These questions are difficult to study in the standard LLM setting: pretraining corpora are vast and uncontrolled, making it hard to attribute behaviors to pretraining versus RL, and systematic compute sweeps across both stages are prohibitively expensive. To address these challenges, we use chess as a controlled testbed for studying reasoning across the full pretraining-to-post-training pipeline. We follow the standard LLM training pipeline by pretraining language models from 5M to 1B parameters on human chess games, supervised fine-tuning on synthetic reasoning traces, and running RL on chess puzzles with verifiable rewards. Using this framework, we find that the post-RL performance at given RL compute level is well-predicted from the pretraining loss, and slope of the RL reward curves improves approximately linearly with the pretraining tokens. Beyond scaling, we find that RL does not simply sharpen the SFT policy: on easy puzzles it amplifies correct moves the SFT policy already preferred, while on hard puzzles it surfaces correct moves that were nearly absent under SFT. We further test whether our findings transfer beyond chess by training a 1B language model on math-domain text, where the same predictive pattern emerges: longer-pretrained checkpoints reach higher post-RL performance and improve faster under RL. In sum, we provide a quantitative account of the pretraining-to-RL interface and a controlled testbed for studying the science of reasoning across the full pretraining-to-post-training pipeline.

Reasoning-specialized language models show large performance gains over base models, yet the internal changes responsible for improved multi-step reasoning remain poorly understood. It is unclear whether reasoning fine-tuning improves local token-level competence or globally reorganizes how models structure inference over time. We address this question by modeling Chain-of-Thought reasoning as a switching dynamical system (SDS), in which internal representations evolve under discrete latent policy states. Our framework combines time-aware contrastive representation learning with discrete regime discovery to recover latent policies from activation trajectories. Across four benchmarks and model scales from 1.5B to 32B parameters, reasoning-fine-tuned models exhibit richer latent-policy organization than their base counterparts, characterized by more differentiated transition structure and model-dependent changes in state utilization, persistence, and mixing. The recovered regimes exhibit functional specialization aligned with distinct reasoning stages, and extensive controls confirm that their structure is not explained by correctness, representation learning, or modeling priors, but depends on the coherent temporal organization of reasoning trajectories. Causal interventions further show that the regimes are functionally meaningful: state-swap ablations reduce one-step predictive fit, while transplanting reasoning dynamics into base models improves performance on challenging reasoning problems. Finally, SDS-guided pruning of failure-prone reasoning prefixes outperforms self-consistency in 11 of 12 model-dataset settings, with gains of up to 12.5 percentage points. Together, our results suggest that reasoning fine-tuning globally reorganizes latent dynamics, offering a new lens for mechanistic analysis and process-level control of reasoning models.

Parallel reasoning improves the accuracy and robustness of large reasoning models by exploring multiple solution paths, but its computational cost grows with reasoning depth and branch count. Existing methods for managing these parallel paths typically rely on final-answer consensus, local token confidence, or isolated intermediate probes. However, these signals are often delayed, weakly tied to actual reasoning progress, or too noisy for dynamic, branch-level control. To address these limitations, we introduce ParaTempo, a training-free asynchronous parallel reasoning framework. ParaTempo is driven by temporal confidence, a branch-local measure of answer-space convergence. Each branch is periodically probed for a tentative answer probability distribution, and temporal confidence quantifies how sharply the recent intermediate probes concentrate on a dominant answer. Once sufficient evidence has accumulated, ParaTempo drives its entire control process from this single signal: low-confidence branches are pruned, branches that persistently commit to their dominant answer are retired early, freed computation is reallocated by forking new branches, and generation stops globally once the confidence-weighted vote concentrates. Without requiring synchronization among reasoning trajectories, ParaTempo adaptively allocates computation based on branch-level convergence. Experiments on challenging mathematical and scientific reasoning benchmarks show that ParaTempo reduces average latency by 21.8-32.2% and total token usage by 18.1-30.3% while maintaining competitive accuracy. Moreover, temporal confidence exhibits stronger temporal stability and predictive power for future branch convergence than token-level and instantaneous signals.

Agent decisions depend on empirical relationships that deployment observations reveal and task descriptions alone may leave unresolved. We introduce Decoupled Predictive Decision Making (DPDM), an architecture that formulates heterogeneous agent decisions as conditional prediction with a shared pretrained learner. Language models provide semantic representations of current and historical records, while a general-purpose conditional predictor predicts task-defined targets from the represented evidence. Pretraining supplies reusable inference capability; deployment evidence instantiates problem-specific predictions without updating either model's neural parameters. Tool judgments, candidate preferences, and reasoning assessments share an evidence-and-query interface, with predictions mapped to choices by a decision rule. This architecture establishes complementary sources of agent capability: semantic knowledge acquired through language pretraining and empirical inference acquired through structured-data pretraining. A single frozen LimiX-2 predictor serves all five task categories. With Qwen3.5-27B as the semantic encoder, DPDM raises mean accuracy across 50 benchmarks from 78.80% with few-shot prompting to 84.92% under their respective evaluated history budgets, and reaches 82.33% with identical histories and queries. On ToolPRMBench's BFCL and ToolSandbox tasks, absolute accuracy gains are 34.26% and 28.87%, respectively, at the methods' respective evaluated history budgets. Accuracy improves as history grows. With identical imbalanced histories, mean balanced accuracy improves by an absolute 14.51% across five reasoning-step assessment tasks and four encoders. DPDM makes learning from experience an independently improvable foundation-model capability, creating a shared route for advances in conditional prediction to improve decisions across agent tasks.

We introduce an Implicit Game-Theoretic MPC (IGT-MPC), a decentralized algorithm for two-agent motion planning that uses a learned value function that predicts the game-theoretic interaction outcomes as the terminal cost-to-go function in a model predictive control (MPC) framework, guiding agents to implicitly account for interactions with other agents and maximize their reward. This approach applies to competitive and cooperative multi-agent motion planning problems which we formulate as constrained dynamic games. Given a constrained dynamic game, we randomly sample initial conditions and solve for the generalized Nash equilibrium (GNE) to generate a dataset of GNE solutions, computing the reward outcome of each game-theoretic interaction from the GNE. The data is used to train a simple neural network to predict the reward outcome, which we use as the terminal cost-to-go function in an MPC scheme. We showcase emerging competitive and coordinated behaviors using IGT-MPC in scenarios such as two-vehicle head-to-head racing and un-signalized intersection navigation. IGT-MPC offers a novel method integrating machine learning and game-theoretic reasoning into model-based decentralized multi-agent motion planning.

Drug discovery is a complex and time-intensive process that requires identifying and validating new therapeutic candidates. Computational approaches using large-scale biomedical knowledge graphs (KGs) offer a promising solution to accelerate this process. However, extracting meaningful insights from large-scale KGs remains challenging due to the complexity of graph traversal. Existing subgraph-based methods are tailored to graph neural networks (GNNs), making them incompatible with other models, such as large language models (LLMs). We introduce K-Paths, a retrieval framework that extracts structured, diverse, and biologically meaningful paths from KGs. Integrating these paths enables LLMs and GNNs to effectively predict unobserved drug-drug and drug-disease interactions. Unlike traditional path-ranking approaches, K-Paths retrieves and transforms paths into a structured format that LLMs can directly process, facilitating explainable reasoning. K-Paths employs a diversity-aware adaptation of Yen's algorithm to retrieve the K shortest loopless paths between entities in an interaction query, prioritizing biologically relevant and diverse relationships. Our experiments on benchmark datasets show that K-Paths improves the zero-shot performance of Llama 8.1B's F1-score by 12.45 points on drug repurposing and 13.42 points on interaction severity prediction. We also show that Llama 70B achieves F1-score gains of 6.18 and 8.46 points, respectively. K-Paths also improves the supervised training efficiency of EmerGNN, a state-of-the-art GNN, by reducing KG size by 90% while maintaining strong predictive performance. Beyond its scalability and efficiency, K-Paths uniquely bridges the gap between KGs and LLMs, providing explainable rationales for predicted interactions. These capabilities show that K-Paths is a valuable tool for efficient data-driven drug discovery.

As large language models (LLMs) grow in scale and specialization, routing--selecting the best model for a given input--has become essential for efficient and effective deployment. While recent methods rely on complex learned routing strategies, their dependence on disparate training data and evaluation setups makes comparison and generalization difficult. In this work, we revisit LLM routing through the lens of simplicity. We show that a well-tuned k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) approach not only matches but often outperforms state-of-the-art learned routers across diverse tasks. To support systematic evaluation, we introduce a suite of standardized routing benchmarks spanning instruction-following, question-answering, and reasoning tasks, as well as the first multi-modal routing dataset involving visual inputs. Our findings reveal that the locality properties of model performance in embedding space enable simple non-parametric methods to achieve strong routing decisions with lower sample complexity than parametric approaches. This challenges the prevailing trend toward sophisticated architectures and highlights the importance of thoroughly evaluating simple baselines before investing in complex solutions. To support reproducibility and further exploration, we will release all benchmarks and code upon publication.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly relied upon for solving complex reasoning tasks in domains such as mathematics, logic, and multi-step question answering. A growing line of work seeks to improve reasoning quality by scaling inference time compute particularly through Process Reward Models (PRMs), used to reward the reasoning at intermediate steps. While effective, these methods introduce substantial computational overhead, especially when generating large numbers of solutions in parallel. In this paper, we investigate whether PRMs can be used mid-generation to provide early signals that enable the rejection of suboptimal candidates before full generation of step is complete. We introduce the hypothesis that PRMs are also Partial Reward Models, meaning that the scores they assign to partially completed reasoning step are predictive of final output quality. This allows for principled early rejection based on intermediate token-level signals. We support this hypothesis both theoretically, by proving that the risk of discarding optimal beams decreases exponentially with generation length and empirically, by demonstrating a strong correlation between partial and final rewards across multiple reward models. On math reasoning benchmarks, our method achieves up to 1.4times-9times reduction in inference FLOPs without degrading final performance. These results suggest that early rejection is a powerful mechanism for improving the compute-efficiency of reasoning in LLMs.

A prevailing view in Reinforcement Learning for Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) interprets recent progress through the lens of an exploration-exploitation trade-off, a perspective largely shaped by token-level metrics. We re-examine this perspective, proposing that this perceived trade-off may not be a fundamental constraint but rather an artifact of the measurement level. To investigate this, we shift the analysis to the semantically rich hidden-state space, adopting Effective Rank (ER) to quantify exploration and proposing its novel first- and second-order derivatives, named Effective Rank Velocity (ERV) and Effective Rank Acceleration (ERA), to capture exploitation dynamics. Our analysis reveals that at the hidden-state level, exploration and exploitation could be decoupled (Sec. 4). This finding reveals an opportunity to enhance both capacities simultaneously. This insight motivates our method, Velocity-Exploiting Rank-Learning (VERL), the first to operationalize the principle of synergistic exploration-exploitation enhancement by directly shaping the RL advantage function. The key innovation is leveraging the theoretically stable ERA as a predictive meta-controller to create a synergistic, dual-channel incentive structure. Instead of forcing a trade-off, VERL prospectively amplifies rewards for exploration to preempt overconfidence and reinforces exploitative gains to consolidate reasoning. Experiments across diverse LLMs and reasoning benchmarks show consistent gains, including up to 21.4% absolute accuracy improvement on the challenging Gaokao 2024 dataset.

Given the prohibitive cost of pre-training large language models, it is essential to leverage smaller proxy models to optimize datasets before scaling up. However, this approach becomes challenging for reasoning capabilities, which exhibit emergent behavior that only appear reliably at larger model sizes, often exceeding 7B parameters. To address this, we introduce rBridge, showing that small proxies (leq1B) can effectively predict large-model reasoning by aligning more closely with (1) the pre-training objective and (2) the target task. rBridge achieves this by weighting negative log-likelihood with task alignment, using reasoning traces from frontier models as gold labels. In our experiments, rBridge (i) reduces dataset ranking costs by over 100x relative to the best baseline, (ii) achieves the strongest correlation across six reasoning benchmarks at 1B to 32B scale, and (iii) zero-shot transfers predictive relationships across pre-training datasets at 1B to 7B scale. These findings indicate that rBridge offers a practical path for exploring reasoning-oriented pre-training at lower cost.

Reasoning models improve their problem-solving ability through inference-time scaling, allocating more compute via longer token budgets. Identifying which reasoning traces are likely to succeed remains a key opportunity: reliably predicting productive paths can substantially reduce wasted computation and improve overall efficiency. We introduce Latent-Trajectory signals that characterize the temporal evolution of a model's internal representations during the generation of intermediate reasoning tokens. By measuring the overall change in latent representations between the start and end of reasoning, the change accumulated across intermediate steps, and the extent to which these changes advance toward the final state, we show that these signals predict solution accuracy more reliably than both cross-layer metrics and output-based confidence measures. When used to guide answer selection across multiple sampled generations, Latent-Trajectory signals make test-time scaling more effective and efficient than majority voting, reducing token usage by up to 70% while preserving and even improving accuracy by 2.6% on average. Moreover, these predictive signals often emerge early in the reasoning trace, enabling early selection and allocation of compute to the most promising candidates. Our findings contribute not only practical strategies for inference-time efficiency, but also a deeper interpretability perspective on how reasoning processes are represented and differentiated in latent space.

Accurate prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events recurrence risk in acute myocardial infarction patients based on postoperative cardiac MRI and associated clinical notes is crucial for precision treatment and personalized intervention. Existing methods primarily focus on risk stratification capability while overlooking the need for intermediate robust reasoning and model interpretability in clinical practice. Moreover, end-to-end risk prediction using LLM/VLM faces significant challenges due to data limitations and modeling complexity. To bridge this gap, we propose CardioCoT, a novel two-stage hierarchical reasoning-enhanced survival analysis framework designed to enhance both model interpretability and predictive performance. In the first stage, we employ an evidence-augmented self-refinement mechanism to guide LLM/VLMs in generating robust hierarchical reasoning trajectories based on associated radiological findings. In the second stage, we integrate the reasoning trajectories with imaging data for risk model training and prediction. CardioCoT demonstrates superior performance in MACE recurrence risk prediction while providing interpretable reasoning processes, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is as important as predictive accuracy. Extended reasoning via chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting or reasoning-trained models has become ubiquitous in modern VLM pipelines, yet its effect on UQ reliability remains poorly understood. We show that reasoning consistently degrades the quality of most uncertainty estimates, even when it improves task accuracy. We identify implicit answer conditioning as the primary mechanism: as reasoning traces converge on a conclusion before the final answer is generated, token probabilities increasingly reflect consistency with the model's own reasoning trace rather than uncertainty about correctness. In effect, the model becomes overconfident in its answer. In contrast, agreement-based consistency remains robust and often improves under reasoning, making it a practical choice for uncertainty estimation in reasoning-enabled VLMs.

How can you get a language model to reason in a task it natively struggles with? We study how reasoning evolves in a language model -- from supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to reinforcement learning (RL) -- by analyzing how a set of theoretically-inspired datasets impacts language model performance in chess. We find that fine-tuning a model to directly predict the best move leads to effective RL and the strongest downstream performance -- however, the RL step elicits unfaithful reasoning (reasoning inconsistent with the chosen move). Alternatively, training on multi-move trajectories yields comparable downstream performance with faithful reasoning and more stable RL. We show that RL induces a substantial positive shift in the distribution of move quality and reduces hallucination rates as a side effect. Finally, we find several SFT-checkpoint metrics -- metrics spanning evaluation performance, hallucination rates, and reasoning quality -- to be predictive of post-RL model performance. We release checkpoints and final models as well as training data, evaluations, and code which allowed us to surpass leading open-source reasoning models in chess with a 7B-parameter model.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM, dynamically projecting its mean-pooled hidden states as a cross-modal prior into the target numerical encoder. The architecture is jointly optimized using cross-entropy and quantile losses. Evaluations demonstrate STRIDE establishes state-of-the-art numerical forecasting on GIFT-Eval (0.674 MASE, 0.454 CRPS) compared to TSFMs and exhibits superior in-domain and out-of-domain numerical as well as reasoning performance on TFRBench. Specifically, STRIDE acts as a plug-and-play enhancement, consistently improving diverse TSFMs (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1) across various LLM configurations. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while fundamentally improving predictive accuracy.

Evaluating machine learning in scientific domains requires separating correct predictions from correct reasons under realistic distribution shifts. We introduce PertReason, a knowledge-grounded benchmark and framework suite for cell-state--conditioned reasoning about perturbation effects. At its core, PertReasonQA is a benchmark that tests whether models can generate mechanistically faithful explanations while remaining robust to complex shifts, such as new cells and unseen perturbations. PertReasonQA combines single-cell genetic and chemical perturbation data across multiple cellular contexts with knowledge graphs, and dynamically conditions pathways on cell-specific basal states to avoid generic memorization. Evaluations on state-of-the-art models reveal systematic gaps between predictive accuracy and mechanistic reasoning. Specifically, these models exhibit failure modes largely invisible to standard benchmarks, such as deriving correct answers through flawed logic, ignoring cellular context, and generating directionally inconsistent mechanisms. As a reference probe of the benchmark, we present PertReasonLM, a large language model trained to align outcome predictions with context-specific mechanistic reasoning. Our model targets the identified failure modes by grounding rationales in context-specific pathways and tightening agreement between outcomes and mechanisms. Together, we provide a diagnostic framework for exposing and mitigating failures in faithful reasoning in data-rich scientific systems.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, its effectiveness is substantially hindered by the prevalence of ineffective training data: many sampled prompts yield response groups that are either entirely correct or entirely incorrect, resulting in zero-variance rewards and limited learning signals. Recent state-of-the-art methods address this issue through extensive LLM rollouts to filter ineffective samples, but at the cost of considerable computational overhead. Alternative approaches, including predictive sampling and trajectory replay, aim to improve data efficiency but often remain insufficient and may introduce additional issues such as systematic bias or suboptimal constraints. To address these limitations, we propose Group Prioritized Off-Policy Optimization (POPO), a simple yet effective framework that fully exploits effective training batches without additional rollout overhead. POPO comprises two key components: prioritized group replay and decoupled off-policy optimization. The former replaces ineffective on-policy groups with effective off-policy groups via a recency-based replay mechanism that jointly considers sample quality and the degree of off-policiness. To further mitigate the off-policy gap, POPO employs decoupled importance sampling to correct off-policy bias while maintaining stable policy updates under consistent trust-region constraints. Empirical evaluations across diverse reasoning tasks, including mathematics, planning, and visual geometry, demonstrate that POPO substantially accelerates RL finetuning and achieves strong reasoning performance with significantly fewer rollouts.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) commonly perform spatial reasoning through chain-of-thought (CoT), encoding intermediate reasoning as autoregressive sequences of discrete language tokens. Such hard thinking requires committing to a single token at each step, even when the correct spatial interpretation remains uncertain. This early commitment constitutes premature discretization: an incorrect token selection can propagate errors through subsequent reasoning. We propose Soft Spatial Reasoning, a post-training framework that introduces soft thinking for spatial tasks in LVLMs. At each intermediate reasoning step, the LVLM forms a continuous soft state by mixing token embeddings rather than selecting a single token, allowing multiple candidate continuations to influence the next step. The appropriate degree of softness, however, can vary across reasoning steps: retaining multiple candidates may preserve a useful spatial interpretation, but if those candidates imply conflicting spatial relations, mixing them may interfere with subsequent reasoning. At the core of Soft Spatial Reasoning is AdaptSoft, a controller that uses the current hidden state and predictive uncertainty to adapt the degree of softness at each reasoning step. To train AdaptSoft, we introduce a gradient-alignment learning objective that provides a step-specific learning signal for softness control without intermediate reasoning supervision. Across diverse spatial benchmarks, Soft Spatial Reasoning outperforms hard and fixed-soft CoT baselines using the same backbone, as well as a range of existing LVLMs. The source code is available at https://github.com/rafiibnsultan/Soft_Spatial_Reasoning

As large language model (LLM) agents increasingly learn from experience, they primarily rely on trajectory-level reflection to extract insights. Viewed through the lens of predictive knowledge, we argue that this approach operates on episodic hindsight rather than predictive foresight, yielding brittle, path-dependent heuristics. To address this, we propose Stateful Knowledge Learning (SKL). SKL shifts the agent's focus from trajectory-level summarization to maintaining Stateful Knowledge: explicit, declarative predictive assessments anchored to state. We first demonstrate a motivating example showing how stateful knowledge provides granularity, enhances generalization, and enables knowledge bootstrapping. To further scale up the idea, we introduce two algorithms via self-distillation (SKL-SD) and reinforcement learning (SKL-RL), training agents to autonomously extract state-grounded predictive knowledge from experience and learn to leverage it for policy making. Experiments on interactive environments (WebShop, ScienceWorld) and a complex reasoning task (ChessPuzzles) demonstrate that equipping models with the inherent ability to learn stateful predictive knowledge significantly outpaces current reflection-based training paradigms.

Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) predict masked or future observations in representation space, offering a natural source of predictive latents for vision-language-action (VLA) models. Yet making these latents useful across pretraining, policy learning, and deployment requires addressing three failures: mismatch with embodiment-specific control, interference with action learning, and teacher miscalibration under distribution shifts. We introduce Juno, a unified framework built around one action-conditioned JEPA that serves as a control-aligned representation backbone, a predictive teacher, and an adaptable dynamics model. During pretraining, we train it on embodiment-matched trajectories and use a dynamic CLS loss to transfer motion-weighted patch dynamics to a compact global state. During policy learning, we fuse current-frame JEPA patches into VLA perception and use a decoupled reasoning branch with separate transformation parameters to distill future latent states for action generation. During deployment, we adapt the world model on all observed transitions, including failed rollouts, freeze the adapted teacher, and re-align the policy on verified executions using LoRA adapters and a trainable action head, without expert corrections or task rewards. On SimplerEnv, Juno raises average success from 60.9% to 68.5% over Qwen3GR00T, the strongest baseline, and test-time adaptation further reaches 72.7%; on a real robot, it retains 70%--75% success under background, height, and object shifts where the base policy collapses to 0%.

News article revision histories provide clues to narrative and factual evolution in news articles. To facilitate analysis of this evolution, we present the first publicly available dataset of news revision histories, NewsEdits. Our dataset is large-scale and multilingual; it contains 1.2 million articles with 4.6 million versions from over 22 English- and French-language newspaper sources based in three countries, spanning 15 years of coverage (2006-2021). We define article-level edit actions: Addition, Deletion, Edit and Refactor, and develop a high-accuracy extraction algorithm to identify these actions. To underscore the factual nature of many edit actions, we conduct analyses showing that added and deleted sentences are more likely to contain updating events, main content and quotes than unchanged sentences. Finally, to explore whether edit actions are predictable, we introduce three novel tasks aimed at predicting actions performed during version updates. We show that these tasks are possible for expert humans but are challenging for large NLP models. We hope this can spur research in narrative framing and help provide predictive tools for journalists chasing breaking news.

Predicting cancer treatment outcomes requires models that are both accurate and interpretable, particularly in the presence of heterogeneous clinical data. While large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance in biomedical NLP, they often lack structured reasoning capabilities critical for high-stakes decision support. We present a unified, multi-task learning framework that aligns autoregressive LLMs with clinical reasoning for outcome prediction on the MSK-CHORD dataset. Our models are trained to jointly perform binary survival classification, continuous survival time regression, and natural language rationale generation. We evaluate three alignment strategies: (1) standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT), (2) SFT with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting to elicit step-by-step reasoning, and (3) Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a reinforcement learning method that aligns model outputs to expert-derived reasoning trajectories. Experiments with LLaMa3-8B and Med42-8B backbones demonstrate that CoT prompting improves F1 by +6.0 and reduces MAE by 12%, while GRPO achieves state-of-the-art interpretability and predictive performance across BLEU, ROUGE, and BERTScore. We further show that existing biomedical LLMs often fail to produce valid reasoning traces due to architectural constraints. Our findings underscore the importance of reasoning-aware alignment in multi-task clinical modeling and set a new benchmark for interpretable, trustworthy LLMs in precision oncology.

Every act of language generation compresses a rich internal state into a single token sequence. We call this process intention collapse: a many-to-one projection from a high dimensional intention space I into an external language space L. We formalize intention collapse for contemporary language models, define three simple, model agnostic intention metrics (intention entropy Hint, effective dimensionality dimeff, and latent knowledge recoverability Recov), and propose an empirical agenda for studying how inference time computation shapes internal intentions before they are verbalized. We also report a first small scale experiment. Using a 4 bit Mistral 7B model on 200 GSM8K problems, we compare a direct answer baseline, a chain of thought (CoT) regime, and a babble control. CoT raises accuracy from 5.5 percent to 53 percent, sharply reduces pre collapse intention entropy (from 1.42 to 0.37 bits), and shows higher global effective dimensionality than the other regimes despite producing fewer tokens than babble. At the same time, Hint has little item level predictive power, and a linear probe on I achieves AUROC 0.65 in the CoT regime but only about chance in the baseline regime, where it collapses to the majority class. These preliminary results indicate that intention level metrics can distinguish inference regimes and expose latent information that is partly lost during collapse, while also revealing important limitations of our current proxies

The growing adoption of machine learning (ML) in sensitive domains has heightened the demand for transparent and interpretable artificial intelligence. Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of producing natural language explanations, yet it remains unclear whether these rationales faithfully capture the predictive signals that underlie decisions. This paper introduces RACE-Reasoning Alignment for Completeness of Explanations, a systematic framework to evaluate the alignment between LLM-generated explanations and interpretable feature importance scores derived from a logistic regression baseline. We analyze four widely used text classification datasets-WIKI ONTOLOGY, AG NEWS, IMDB, and GOEMOTIONS-and compare LLM rationales against top-ranked supporting and contradicting lexical features. To capture alignment at multiple levels of granularity, RACE implements token-aware, exact string, and edit-distance matching techniques. Empirical results reveal a consistent asymmetry: correct predictions exhibit higher coverage of supporting features, while incorrect predictions are associated with elevated coverage of contradicting features. Edit-distance matching further uncovers paraphrastic overlaps, boosting coverage while preserving this asymmetry. These findings demonstrate that LLM rationales combine both surface-level and flexible evidence reuse, yet can also amplify misleading cues in error cases. RACE provides new insights into the faithfulness of LLM explanations and establishes a quantitative basis for evaluating reasoning completeness in neural language models.

While explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) equips Large Language Models (LLMs) with strong reasoning capabilities, it requires models to verbalize every intermediate step in text tokens, constraining the model thoughts to the discrete vocabulary space. Recently, reasoning in continuous latent space has emerged as a promising alternative, enabling more robust inference and flexible computation beyond discrete token constraints. However, current latent paradigms often suffer from feature collapse and instability, stemming from distribution mismatches when recurrently using hidden states as the input embeddings, or alignment issues when relying on assistant models. To address this, we propose Latent Thoughts Tuning (LT-Tuning), a framework that redefines how latent thoughts are constructed and deployed. Instead of relying solely on raw hidden states, our method introduces a Context-Prediction-Fusion mechanism that jointly leveraging contextual hidden states and predictive semantic guidance from the vocabulary embedding space. Combined with a progressive three-stage curriculum learning pipeline, LT-Tuning also enables dynamically switching between latent and explicit thinking modes. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing latent reasoning baselines, effectively mitigating feature collapse and achieving robust reasoning accuracy.

Recent advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have enabled complex reasoning. However, existing remote sensing (RS) benchmarks remain heavily biased toward perception tasks, such as object recognition and scene classification. This limitation hinders the development of MLLMs for cognitively demanding RS applications. To address this, , we propose a Vision Language ReaSoning Benchmark (VLRS-Bench), which is the first benchmark exclusively dedicated to complex RS reasoning. Structured across the three core dimensions of Cognition, Decision, and Prediction, VLRS-Bench comprises 2,000 question-answer pairs with an average length of 71 words, spanning 14 tasks and up to eight temporal phases. VLRS-Bench is constructed via a specialized pipeline that integrates RS-specific priors and expert knowledge to ensure geospatial realism and reasoning complexity. Experimental results reveal significant bottlenecks in existing state-of-the-art MLLMs, providing critical insights for advancing multimodal reasoning within the remote sensing community.

LLM-based LEGO assembly generation requires both semantic grounding and physical feasibility. We identify a data-induced failure mode, PhysHack, in which the assemblies satisfy physical-validity constraints while producing structures that are geometrically misaligned, semantically inconsistent, or poorly calibrated. To address this challenge, we propose a model-based data selection approach that uses only a small fraction of the training data while improving physically grounded LEGO assembly generation. Building on the selected trajectories, we introduce PVPO, a sample-efficient reinforcement learning method that couples physical feasibility with voxel-space geometric rewards. Our results show that physical validity alone is an insufficient proxy for reliable physical reasoning: models can learn to generate valid structures without preserving semantic or geometric fidelity. Experiments across model backbones and test-time scaling settings demonstrate that PVPO improves structural and semantic alignment, physical validity, structural stability, and calibration, while reducing reliance on extensive post-hoc rejection sampling. In particular, results on calibration show that PVPO mitigates PhysHack by making test-time selection more predictive of semantic and structural quality.

Agent benchmarks are growing fast, but no single benchmark touches more than four or five of the dimensions that deployment exposes. This paper aggregates the largest coordinated deep-dive of one MCP-based industrial-agent benchmark to date: fourteen parallel implementation studies covering new asset classes (including a multi-modal visual extension), alternative orchestrations, retrieval strategies, reasoning modes, infrastructure optimizations, and evaluation-methodology probes. Consolidating those studies with seven prior agent benchmarks, we argue that aggregate-score leaderboards systematically underspecify deployed-agent evaluation. Rankings derived from aggregate scores do not transfer to out-of-distribution settings; recent public-to-hidden competition retrospectives provide direct empirical evidence of this rank instability. We propose ranking configurations by predictive validity, the correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample rank, rather than in-sample mean, and report a twelve-tier measurement apparatus that exposes the deployment-relevant dimensions HELM and its agent-era successors collapse. The position is operationalized through three falsifiable out-of-distribution criteria with explicit thresholds; existing evidence partly supports it but is too thin to confirm. We close with a pre-registered pilot design and a field-level vision for what the next generation of agentic benchmarks should report.

Dexterous manipulation in everyday environments requires both anticipation and reaction: a robot must predict how contact should evolve while rapidly correcting local errors caused by slip, misalignment, unstable grasping, or force mismatch. Vision and language provide semantic and geometric guidance, but they cannot reliably reveal hidden contact states such as force, slip, and contact stability. Although tactile sensing exposes these physical cues, most existing policies treat touch as a low-frequency observation stream within a monolithic action model, coupling slow task reasoning, action generation, and fast contact feedback in a single loop. We introduce TouchWorld, a predictive-and-reactive tactile foundation model for dexterous manipulation. TouchWorld uses a hierarchical policy that separates vision-language subtask planning, tactile world-model prediction, visuo-tactile goal-conditioned action generation, and high-frequency tactile residual refinement. A High-Level Planning Layer produces executable subtasks and predicts tactile subgoals; a Visuo-Tactile Goal-Conditioned Policy generates nominal action chunks; and a Tactile-Conditioned Refinement Policy performs online residual correction using recent tactile and proprioceptive feedback. By using touch as both a predictive contact reference and a fast feedback signal, TouchWorld preserves the semantic generalization of vision-language-action policies while improving local contact adaptation. Across six long-horizon and contact-rich dexterous manipulation tasks, TouchWorld achieves 65.0% success in the clean setting and 53.7% success under human perturbations, outperforming the strongest baseline by 15.7 and 18.5 percentage points, respectively.

Video predictive models are emerging as a powerful paradigm in robotics, offering a promising path toward task generalization, long-horizon planning, and flexible decision-making. However, prevailing approaches often operate on 2D video sequences, inherently lacking the 3D geometric understanding necessary for precise spatial reasoning and physical consistency. We introduce a Structured 4D Latent Predictive Model, which predicts the evolution of a scene's 3D structure in a structured latent space conditioned on observations and textual instructions. Our representation encodes the scene holistically and can be decoded into diverse 3D formats, enabling a more complete and 3D consistent scene understanding. This structured 4D latent predictive model serves as a planner, generating future scenes that are translated into executable actions by a goal-conditioned inverse dynamics module. Experiments demonstrate that our model generates futures with strong visual quality, substantially better 3D consistency and multi-view coherence compared to state-of-the-art video-based planners. Consequently, our full planning pipeline achieves superior performance on complex manipulation tasks, exhibits robust generalization to novel visual conditions, and proves effective on real-world robotic platforms. Our website is available at https://structured-4d-model.github.io/.

Deploying learned control policies is risky because policies that appear robust in simulation can confidently enter out-of-distribution (OOD) states after Sim-to-Real transfer, causing silent failures and potential hardware damage. Existing anomaly detectors often fail to meet the requirements of high-rate control, extremely low false-positive rates, and interpretable failure feedback. We present RAPT (Recurrent Anomaly Probabilistic Trajectory Model), a lightweight, self-supervised 50\,Hz deployment monitor that learns nominal execution from large-scale simulation and produces calibrated, per-dimension predictive-deviation signals online. RAPT enables OOD detection under strict false-positive constraints while localizing when and where real execution departs from nominal behavior. For post-hoc diagnosis, RAPT combines temporal saliency, joint-kinematic summaries, and LLM-based semantic reasoning to classify likely failure causes in a zero-shot setting. In simulation across four Isaac Lab tasks, RAPT improves TPR by 37% over the strongest baseline at 0.5% episode-level FPR; on hardware, it achieves 89% TPR across 78 trials with fewer false positives than high-frequency-compatible baselines, and reaches 75% semantic failure diagnosis accuracy across 21 categories on a challenging OOD subset. Project website, code, and videos: https://humphreymunn.github.io/RAPT/.

Self-supervised pretraining is central to 3D medical image analysis, where unlabeled CT volumes are abundant but expert annotations are scarce. Yet existing volumetric encoders often fail to preserve the coarse spatial and geometric structure that downstream reasoning depends on, limiting their performance on organ disentanglement, abnormality detection, and spatial understanding when paired with language models. We introduce Rad-JEPA 3D, a joint-embedding predictive framework that learns volumetric CT representations by predicting the latent features of a complete scan from a masked view. At its core is a hybrid H-Mamba encoder that fuses a Mamba state-space branch, which models inter-slice continuity through sequential scanning, with a grouped-query attention branch, which captures cross-plane spatial context, combined through a lightweight per-token router. To improve the quality of intermediate representations, we further propose Hidden States Orthogonal Regularization (HSOR), which aligns student-teacher hidden states and reduces feature redundancy throughout the encoder. This layer-wise regularization produces more consistent and discriminative volumetric representations, leading to improved performance on organ recognition and spatial reasoning tasks. Pretrained on approximately 120,000 CT scans, Rad-JEPA 3D attains state-of-the-art results despite its compact size: with only 4.0B total parameters, it achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art on closed-ended VQA and the best average spatial-reasoning score on the Spatial-Med benchmark. Ablation studies confirm that the hybrid block and HSOR contribute complementary gains, and that the induced spatial structure can substitute for raw language-model scale on volumetric reasoning tasks.

World models construct latent states that support prediction, planning, and reasoning about an underlying system. Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) offer a direct way to learn such states by predicting targets in representation space instead of reconstructing every detail of the observation. Standard JEPAs, however, organize all predictable content through one target embedding and one prediction pathway. In complex systems, this monolithic state can allocate redundant capacity to dominant signals while providing weak or conflicting gradients to less dominant predictive structure. We introduce \method, a latent world-modeling framework based on orthogonal predictive factorization. Learned basis matrices analyze each target state into multiple components, and a dedicated prediction branch estimates each component from a shared context representation. Predictive regression preserves the factor magnitudes required for state synthesis, an orthogonality objective discourages repeated directions, factor-activity regularization maintains variation in projected targets, and online variance regularization discourages coordinate-wise encoder collapse. Predicted components are synthesized into a complete latent state that can be used by a readout, decoder, planner, or autoregressive rollout. The same predictive-state mechanism applies when the target is temporally future, spatially hidden, or another partial observation of the same system. Experiments on controlled vision, single-cell transcriptomics, longitudinal health records, continuous control, and molecular dynamics evaluate representation quality, forecasting, planning, and long-horizon stability.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards improves mathematical reasoning when a final answer can be checked, but a correct answer does not certify the derivation behind it, and proof problems offer no answer to check. Replacing the check with a reasoning model as an in-loop verifier faces a fundamental obstacle: the policy must already produce occasional correct attempts for any reward to exist, which it may never do at olympiad level. We instead move verification and repair out of the training loop and into offline data generation with SPLICE, a workflow in which a second model, given only a reference solution, edits a reasoning model's traces as they are generated: it verifies progress, truncates a failed trace at its last verified step, and splices in an adaptively strengthened hint until progress resumes. The resulting dataset includes repaired examples whose sampled unaided trajectory failed, with failed continuations removed and progress repeatedly checked against the reference solution. A model finetuned on SPLICE traces outperforms the same model distilled from the reasoning model's unedited traces on AIME and, under a grading protocol validated against human grades, on olympiad proofs. The trained model's own traces show a corresponding behavioral signature: at difficult points it announces a branch in the style of the spliced hints and takes riskier steps, with predictive entropy rising there and just after, a pattern absent from the model trained on unedited traces.

Existing geometry-aware Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) increasingly rely on external 3D encoders to provide structural priors, but executing these additional encoder paths at inference introduces substantial latency and computational overhead. We propose GeoThinker-F, an efficient framework that internalizes spatiotemporal perception by transforming causal MLLM hidden states into predictive latent world representations. Our key insight is that intermediate semantic representations contain sufficient information to predict useful representations of current geometry and future semantics, without requiring an exact reproduction of features from a dedicated 3D encoder. To realize this idea, GeoThinker-F adopts a decoupled two-stage training strategy. In the first stage, the MLLM backbone is frozen while lightweight Latent Frame Prediction (LFP) heads learn from an offline 3D geometry expert and next-frame semantic targets. In the second stage, the external expert is removed, and the model is jointly optimized to generate and selectively integrate its self-predicted priors through a specialized Spatial-Grounded Temporal (SGT) Fusion module. Extensive evaluations show that GeoThinker-F eliminates runtime dependence on external 3D geometry encoders while maintaining competitive performance across diverse spatial intelligence benchmarks. It achieves up to a 3.6times inference speedup, reducing latency from 1.45,s to 0.40,s while retaining strong spatial reasoning performance.

The ability to reason about temporal and causal events from videos lies at the core of human intelligence. Most video reasoning benchmarks, however, focus on pattern recognition from complex visual and language input, instead of on causal structure. We study the complementary problem, exploring the temporal and causal structures behind videos of objects with simple visual appearance. To this end, we introduce the CoLlision Events for Video REpresentation and Reasoning (CLEVRER), a diagnostic video dataset for systematic evaluation of computational models on a wide range of reasoning tasks. Motivated by the theory of human casual judgment, CLEVRER includes four types of questions: descriptive (e.g., "what color"), explanatory ("what is responsible for"), predictive ("what will happen next"), and counterfactual ("what if"). We evaluate various state-of-the-art models for visual reasoning on our benchmark. While these models thrive on the perception-based task (descriptive), they perform poorly on the causal tasks (explanatory, predictive and counterfactual), suggesting that a principled approach for causal reasoning should incorporate the capability of both perceiving complex visual and language inputs, and understanding the underlying dynamics and causal relations. We also study an oracle model that explicitly combines these components via symbolic representations.

Drug toxicity remains a major challenge in pharmaceutical development. Recent machine learning models have improved in silico toxicity prediction, but their reliance on annotated data and lack of interpretability limit their applicability. This limits their ability to capture organ-specific toxicities driven by complex biological mechanisms. Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising alternative through step-by-step reasoning and integration of textual data, yet prior approaches lack biological context and transparent rationale. To address this issue, we propose CoTox, a novel framework that integrates LLM with chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning for multi-toxicity prediction. CoTox combines chemical structure data, biological pathways, and gene ontology (GO) terms to generate interpretable toxicity predictions through step-by-step reasoning. Using GPT-4o, we show that CoTox outperforms both traditional machine learning and deep learning model. We further examine its performance across various LLMs to identify where CoTox is most effective. Additionally, we find that representing chemical structures with IUPAC names, which are easier for LLMs to understand than SMILES, enhances the model's reasoning ability and improves predictive performance. To demonstrate its practical utility in drug development, we simulate the treatment of relevant cell types with drug and incorporated the resulting biological context into the CoTox framework. This approach allow CoTox to generate toxicity predictions aligned with physiological responses, as shown in case study. This result highlights the potential of LLM-based frameworks to improve interpretability and support early-stage drug safety assessment. The code and prompt used in this work are available at https://github.com/dmis-lab/CoTox.

Although Vision Language Models (VLMs) exhibit strong perceptual abilities and impressive visual reasoning, they struggle with attention to detail and precise action planning in complex, dynamic environments, leading to subpar performance. Real-world tasks typically require complex interactions, advanced spatial reasoning, long-term planning, and continuous strategy refinement, usually necessitating understanding the physics rules of the target scenario. However, evaluating these capabilities in real-world scenarios is often prohibitively expensive. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepPHY, a novel benchmark framework designed to systematically evaluate VLMs' understanding and reasoning about fundamental physical principles through a series of challenging simulated environments. DeepPHY integrates multiple physical reasoning environments of varying difficulty levels and incorporates fine-grained evaluation metrics. Our evaluation finds that even state-of-the-art VLMs struggle to translate descriptive physical knowledge into precise, predictive control.

In recent years, cross-modal reasoning (CMR), the process of understanding and reasoning across different modalities, has emerged as a pivotal area with applications spanning from multimedia analysis to healthcare diagnostics. As the deployment of AI systems becomes more ubiquitous, the demand for transparency and comprehensibility in these systems' decision-making processes has intensified. This survey delves into the realm of interpretable cross-modal reasoning (I-CMR), where the objective is not only to achieve high predictive performance but also to provide human-understandable explanations for the results. This survey presents a comprehensive overview of the typical methods with a three-level taxonomy for I-CMR. Furthermore, this survey reviews the existing CMR datasets with annotations for explanations. Finally, this survey summarizes the challenges for I-CMR and discusses potential future directions. In conclusion, this survey aims to catalyze the progress of this emerging research area by providing researchers with a panoramic and comprehensive perspective, illuminating the state of the art and discerning the opportunities. The summarized methods, datasets, and other resources are available at https://github.com/ZuyiZhou/Awesome-Interpretable-Cross-modal-Reasoning.

Large reasoning models enhanced by reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards have achieved significant performance gains by extending their chain-of-thought. However, this paradigm incurs substantial deployment costs as models often exhibit excessive verbosity on simple queries. Existing efficient reasoning methods relying on explicit length penalties often introduce optimization conflicts and leave the generative mechanisms driving overthinking largely unexamined. In this paper, we identify a phenomenon termed length shift where models increasingly generate unnecessary reasoning on trivial inputs during training. To address this, we introduce Dynamic Outlier Truncation (DOT), a training-time intervention that selectively suppresses redundant tokens. This method targets only the extreme tail of response lengths within fully correct rollout groups while preserving long-horizon reasoning capabilities for complex problems. To complement this intervention and ensure stable convergence, we further incorporate auxiliary KL regularization and predictive dynamic sampling. Experimental results across multiple model scales demonstrate that our approach significantly pushes the efficiency-performance Pareto frontier outward. Notably, on the AIME-24, our method reduces inference token usage by 78% while simultaneously increasing accuracy compared to the initial policy and surpassing state-of-the-art efficient reasoning methods.

Improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) has largely relied on iterative self-training with model-generated data. While effective at boosting accuracy, existing approaches primarily reinforce successful reasoning paths, incurring a substantial calibration cost: models become overconfident and lose the ability to represent uncertainty. This failure has been characterized as a form of model collapse in alignment, where predictive distributions degenerate toward low-variance point estimates. We address this issue by reframing reasoning training as an epistemic learning problem, in which models must learn not only how to reason, but also when their reasoning should be trusted. We propose epistemically-calibrated reasoning (EpiCaR) as a training objective that jointly optimizes reasoning performance and calibration, and instantiate it within an iterative supervised fine-tuning framework using explicit self-evaluation signals. Experiments on Llama-3 and Qwen-3 families demonstrate that our approach achieves Pareto-superiority over standard baselines in both accuracy and calibration, particularly in models with sufficient reasoning capacity (e.g., 3B+). This framework generalizes effectively to OOD mathematical reasoning (GSM8K) and code generation (MBPP). Ultimately, our approach enables a 3X reduction in inference compute, matching the K=30 performance of STaR with only K=10 samples in capable models.

Recent breakthroughs in Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have demonstrated that extensive Chain-of-Thought (CoT) generation is critical for enabling intricate cognitive behaviors, such as self-verification and backtracking, to solve complex tasks. However, this capability often leads to ``overthinking'', where models generate redundant reasoning paths that inflate computational costs without improving accuracy. While Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on reasoning traces is a standard paradigm for the 'cold start' phase, applying existing compression techniques to these traces often compromises logical coherence or incurs prohibitive sampling costs. In this paper, we introduce ConMax (Confidence-Maximizing Compression), a novel reinforcement learning framework designed to automatically compress reasoning traces while preserving essential reasoning patterns. ConMax formulates compression as a reward-driven optimization problem, training a policy to prune redundancy by maximizing a weighted combination of answer confidence for predictive fidelity and thinking confidence for reasoning validity through a frozen auxiliary LRM. Extensive experiments across five reasoning datasets demonstrate that ConMax achieves a superior efficiency-performance trade-off. Specifically, it reduces inference length by 43% over strong baselines at the cost of a mere 0.7% dip in accuracy, proving its effectiveness in generating high-quality, efficient training data for LRMs.

Transformer LLMs have been shown to exhibit strong reasoning ability that scales with inference-time compute, most prominently through token-space "thinking" chains of thought. A growing line of work pushes extra computation into the model's latent space, which we term Auxiliary Latent-Space Computation (ALSC). Existing ALSC methods largely fall into three buckets: (i) token-mediated latent rollouts, (ii) residual/activation steering, and (iii) memory (KV) compression. An underexplored alternative is memory consolidation/reconsolidation, two processes in the brain that are responsible for stabilising newly formed memory traces, and, upon recall, transiently rendering established traces plastic such they can integrate new contextual information before restabilising. In Transformer LLMs, this can be seen as analogous to performing in-place rewrites of new KV segments, and rewrites of recalled past segments. In this work, we give a theoretical justification as to why memory (re)consolidation via KV cache rewrites is beneficial for improved reasoning. We do this through the lens of Information Bottleneck (IB) theory, which posits that model generalisation emerges from an optimal balance between input information compression and retention of predictive information in latent representations. We then introduce the Bottlenecked Transformer, which augments a backbone LLM with a Cache Processor, an auxiliary Transformer that performs periodic, non-causal, in-place KV rewrites at newline-delimited reasoning step boundaries. The Processor consolidates recently written KV entries and reconsolidates a small, top-k attention-selected set of prior entries. We evaluate our Bottlenecked Transformer architecture on math reasoning benchmarks. Our model sees consistent performance gains over vanilla Transformers and pause-token augmented baselines, with gains of up to +6.6pp for selected tasks/backbones.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown strong potential for enhancing reasoning in multimodal large language models, yet existing video reasoning methods often rely on coarse sequence-level rewards or single-factor token selection, neglecting fine-grained links among visual inputs, temporal dynamics, and linguistic outputs, limiting both accuracy and interpretability. We propose Video-KTR, a modality-aware policy shaping framework that performs selective, token-level RL by combining three attribution signals: (1) visual-aware tokens identified via counterfactual masking to reveal perceptual dependence; (2) temporal-aware tokens detected through frame shuffling to expose temporal sensitivity; and (3) high-entropy tokens signaling predictive uncertainty. By reinforcing only these key tokens, Video-KTR focuses learning on semantically informative, modality-sensitive content while filtering out low-value tokens. Across five challenging benchmarks, Video-KTR achieves state-of-the-art or highly competitive results, achieving 42.7\% on Video-Holmes (surpassing GPT-4o) with consistent gains on both reasoning and general video understanding tasks. Ablation studies verify the complementary roles of the attribution signals and the robustness of targeted token-level updates. Overall, Video-KTR improves accuracy and interpretability, offering a simple, drop-in extension to RL for complex video reasoning. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/zywang0104/Video-KTR.

On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) is an emerging LLM post-training paradigm in which the model serves as its own teacher: conditioned on privileged information such as a reference trace or hint, the same policy provides dense token-level supervision on its own rollouts. However, recent studies show that OPSD degrades complex reasoning by suppressing predictive uncertainty, which supports exploration and hypothesis revision. Our token-level analysis shows that this failure arises from applying a uniform direction of teacher supervision across tokens with different uncertainty levels: conformity to the privileged self-teacher suppresses exploration at high entropy, while deviation from the teacher degrades step accuracy at low entropy. Accordingly, we propose Direction-Adaptive Self-Distillation (DASD), which reframes privileged self-distillation from uniform teacher imitation into entropy-routed directional supervision: high-entropy tokens are pushed away from the privileged teacher to preserve exploration, while low-entropy tokens are pulled toward the teacher to stabilize step-level execution. Across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks, DASD achieves the best macro Avg@16 over strong RLVR and self-distillation baselines. Pass@k, reasoning-health, and generalization analyses show that these average gains come from preserving exploration without sacrificing step-level execution.

Logit-based knowledge distillation (KD) is used to train smaller language models (LMs) via supervision from stronger teachers, but whether its benefits are consistent across training stages remains unclear. Through controlled experiments, we find that forward Kullback-Leibler (KL) distillation--the standard KD formulation--with post-trained teachers behaves fundamentally differently during mid-training, an intermediate phase of self-supervised learning on curated corpora. Surprisingly, while forward KD simultaneously improves reasoning and factual recall during pre-training relative to standard next-token prediction (NTP), it instead slows factual recall acquisition during mid-training despite continued reasoning gains. We trace this stage dependence to an asymmetry in teacher confidence across data domains and the student's evolving knowledge state: teachers are more confident on procedural than knowledge-intensive data, while students acquire low-entropy factual knowledge earlier in training. To mitigate this imbalance, we propose Switch Distillation, a simple mid-training objective that distills on tokens where the teacher is confident, using teacher predictive entropy as a lightweight routing signal, and otherwise falls back to cross-entropy. Switch Distillation consistently outperforms existing distillation objectives across teacher sizes. Relative to standard NTP, it achieves 1.61-1.71x the reasoning performance and 1.13-1.19x the knowledge and commonsense performance while preserving 96.7-96.8% of factual recall. Crucially, these benefits persist after post-training: Switch Distillation closes the factual recall gap while maintaining 1.25-1.32x and 1.13-1.20x gains in reasoning and knowledge and commonsense, respectively.

The recent progress in large language models (LLMs), especially the invention of chain-of-thoughts (CoT) prompting, makes it possible to solve reasoning problems. However, even the strongest LLMs are still struggling with more complicated problems that require non-linear thinking and multi-step reasoning. In this work, we explore whether LLMs have the ability to recognize their own errors, without resorting to external resources. In particular, we investigate whether they can be used to identify individual errors within a step-by-step reasoning. To this end, we propose a zero-shot verification scheme to recognize such errors. We then use this verification scheme to improve question-answering performance, by using it to perform weighted voting on different generated answers. We test the method on three math datasets-GSM8K, MathQA, and MATH-and find that it successfully recognizes errors and, in turn, increases final predictive performance.

Reinforcement-learning-based post-training has become a key approach for improving the reasoning ability of large language models, but its token-level learning signals remain poorly understood. This work studies their heterogeneity through attention entropy, which measures how concentrated or diffuse the contextual support is for each response token. We first show that token-level RL objectives are sparsely estimable: uniformly random 20 percent token subsets preserve much of the full-token held-out performance, suggesting substantial redundancy in token-level updates. However, entropy-structured subsets behave very differently. Low-attention-entropy tokens, which we call anchors, rely on concentrated support, produce stable gradients aligned with full-token updates, and provide a reliable optimization backbone, but tend to plateau on harder benchmarks. High-attention-entropy tokens, which we call explorers, aggregate more diffuse context and induce larger but more volatile gradients. Explorer-only training is unstable on average, though rare successful runs suggest that these tokens may contain useful hard-reasoning signals when optimization remains stable. We support this anchor-explorer spectrum with evidence-gathering analyses, entropy dynamics, gradient-geometry diagnostics, and controls showing that position, predictive entropy, and loss normalization do not explain the observed asymmetry. Finally, a dynamic entropy-aware soft-reweighting intervention improves Qwen3-8B-Base from 34.39 to 37.40 held-out average in the strongest setting. These findings suggest that attention entropy reveals optimization-relevant structure in token-level RL signals, and that uniform token averaging can obscure meaningful heterogeneity in reasoning post-training.

Large language models can reason over biological knowledge, but they are not naturally equipped to work with quantitative omics measurements. Existing approaches either convert expression profiles into long textual representations, often losing quantitative information, or connect omics encoders to language models for narrow tasks. We introduce OmicsLM, a 9B multimodal language model that represents each bulk or single-cell transcriptome as a compact continuous embedding that can be interleaved with natural-language instructions and with other samples in the same context. An key contribution is a training corpus that connects experimental measurements with biological knowledge and task supervision. We combine templates linking transcriptomic profiles to annotations and experimental outcomes, reasoning examples connecting evidence across sources, and LLM-generated supervision with task-specific quality checks. The instruction-tuning corpus spans 157 biological and general-purpose task groups. Training includes continued pretraining on 20 billion tokens and supervised fine-tuning on 5.21 million conversations. We further introduce GEO-OmicsQA, a publication-disjoint benchmark of 3,000 questions requiring models to interpret and compare expression profiles from real GEO studies. OmicsLM achieves the best results among the evaluated models on three of four held-out annotation tasks and on all six GEO-OmicsQA variants, and the best average performance among compared methods on PerturbQA perturbation-response prediction. Ablations show a clear advantage for continuous omics representations over a text-only gene-list representation. Together, these results show that quantitative transcriptomic measurements and biological language can be integrated within a general conversational model, enabling both predictive tasks and language-guided interpretation of experimental samples.

Ensuring safe and effective use of AI requires understanding and anticipating its performance on novel tasks, from advanced scientific challenges to transformed workplace activities. So far, benchmarking has guided progress in AI, but it has offered limited explanatory and predictive power for general-purpose AI systems, given the low transferability across diverse tasks. In this paper, we introduce general scales for AI evaluation that can explain what common AI benchmarks really measure, extract ability profiles of AI systems, and predict their performance for new task instances, in- and out-of-distribution. Our fully-automated methodology builds on 18 newly-crafted rubrics that place instance demands on general scales that do not saturate. Illustrated for 15 large language models and 63 tasks, high explanatory power is unleashed from inspecting the demand and ability profiles, bringing insights on the sensitivity and specificity exhibited by different benchmarks, and how knowledge, metacognition and reasoning are affected by model size, chain-of-thought and distillation. Surprisingly, high predictive power at the instance level becomes possible using these demand levels, providing superior estimates over black-box baseline predictors based on embeddings or finetuning, especially in out-of-distribution settings (new tasks and new benchmarks). The scales, rubrics, battery, techniques and results presented here represent a major step for AI evaluation, underpinning the reliable deployment of AI in the years ahead. (Collaborative platform: https://kinds-of-intelligence-cfi.github.io/ADELE.)

While scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) during pre-training have been extensively studied, their behavior under reinforcement learning (RL) post-training remains largely unexplored. This paper presents a systematic empirical investigation of scaling behaviors in RL-based post-training, with a particular focus on mathematical reasoning. Based on a set of experiments across the full Qwen2.5 dense model series (0.5B to 72B), we characterize how model scale, data volume, and computational budget interact to shape performance. Our analysis leads to four key findings: 1.Larger models consistently exhibit superior learning efficiency on both compute and data metrics. 2.The relationship between test loss, compute, and data can be modeled by a predictive power-law which is robust across both base and instruction-tuned models. 3.Although larger models exhibit higher learning efficiency, the analytical learning efficiency term k(N) in the power-law reveals a latent saturation trend in learning efficiency as model size continues to increase. 4.In data-constrained regimes, repeated reuse of high-quality data proves highly effective, as final performance is primarily governed by the total number of optimization steps rather than the uniqueness of samples. Collectively, these results provide a principled foundation and practical guidelines for efficiently scaling the reasoning capabilities of LLMs through RL post-training.

Latent visual reasoning aims to perform multimodal reasoning through hidden-state computation rather than explicit textual chains of thought. However, visual information being present in a latent state does not imply that the model actually relies on that state when producing its answer, especially when alternative image-conditioned paths remain available. We introduce Causal Visual Recurrent Reasoning (CVRR), which preserves pretrained visual competence while making recurrent computation the required image-conditioned path to prediction. CVRR initializes recurrence from the question hidden state after the pretrained vision-language model has incorporated the image, then repeatedly updates this state while re-reading the same fixed visual evidence. Before decoding, visual states and the original multimodal KV cache are removed so that only the final recurrent state carries image-conditioned information to the answer. Across the V^*, MMVP, BLINK, and MME-RealWorld-Lite benchmarks, CVRR retains strong performance under this strict interface, while compatible latent reasoners fail to recover comparable visual competence even when retrained under the same constraint. Causal interventions further show that predictions remain sensitive to recurrent content when the question is held fixed, and that persistent visual evidence causally revises the recurrent trajectory. These results distinguish latent informativeness from latent computation that is actually used for prediction.

Open-weights reasoning language models generate long chains-of-thought (CoTs) before producing a final response, which improves performance but introduces additional alignment risks, with harmful content often appearing in both the CoTs and the final outputs. In this work, we investigate if we can use CoTs to predict final response misalignment. We evaluate a range of monitoring approaches, including humans, highly-capable large language models, and text classifiers, using either CoT text or activations. First, we find that a simple linear probe trained on CoT activations can significantly outperform all text-based methods in predicting whether a final response will be safe or unsafe. CoT texts are often unfaithful and can mislead humans and classifiers, while model latents (i.e., CoT activations) offer a more reliable predictive signal. Second, the probe makes accurate predictions before reasoning completes, achieving strong performance even when applied to early CoT segments. These findings generalize across model sizes, families, and safety benchmarks, suggesting that lightweight probes could enable real-time safety monitoring and early intervention during generation.

Reasoning distillation has attracted increasing attention. It typically leverages a large teacher model to generate reasoning paths, which are then used to fine-tune a student model so that it mimics the teacher's behavior in training contexts. However, previous approaches have lacked a detailed analysis of the origins of the distilled model's capabilities. It remains unclear whether the student can maintain consistent behaviors with the teacher in novel test-time contexts, or whether it regresses to its original output patterns, raising concerns about the generalization of distillation models. To analyse this question, we introduce a cross-model Reasoning Distillation Provenance Tracing framework. For each action (e.g., a sentence) produced by the distilled model, we obtain the predictive probabilities assigned by the teacher, the original student, and the distilled model under the same context. By comparing these probabilities, we classify each action into different categories. By systematically disentangling the provenance of each action, we experimentally demonstrate that, in test-time contexts, the distilled model can indeed generate teacher-originated actions, which correlate with and plausibly explain observed performance on distilled model. Building on this analysis, we further propose a teacher-guided data selection method. Unlike prior approach that rely on heuristics, our method directly compares teacher-student divergences on the training data, providing a principled selection criterion. We validate the effectiveness of our approach across multiple representative teacher models and diverse student models. The results highlight the utility of our provenance-tracing framework and underscore its promise for reasoning distillation. We hope to share Reasoning Distillation Provenance Tracing and our insights into reasoning distillation with the community.

Despite recent progress of VLA foundation models, the disparity between laboratory conditions and real-world applications continues to impede their practical implementation. To bridge this gap, we present LingBot-VLA 2.0, which advances LingBot-VLA through improvements in three functional domains. (1) Generalization across tasks and embodiments. Compared to the previous version, we revamp the data processing pipeline and curate around 60,000 hours of data for pretraining, including 50,000 hours of robot trajectories spanning 20 robot configurations and 10,000 hours of egocentric human videos. (2) Expanded action space in addition to dual-arm hardware platforms. In particular, our system accommodates degrees of freedom for the heads, waists, mobile bases, and dexterous hands, thereby empowering the robots to tackle more complex tasks in practical scenarios. (3) Predictive dynamics modeling for improved temporal reasoning. Specifically, we formulate future prediction as a proxy task, facilitated by a video representation model for semantic priors and a depth estimation model for geometric cues. Evaluations on the GM-100 benchmark, conducted in a generalist setting, validate the beneficial impact of these proposed modifications. Furthermore, benefiting from the expanded pretraining data that covers whole-body degrees of freedom, LingBot-VLA-2.0 demonstrates strong cross-embodiment long-horizon mobile manipulation capability across the two robotic platforms.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have recently achieved notable progress in end-to-end autonomous driving by integrating perception, reasoning, and control within a unified multimodal framework. However, they often lack explicit modeling of temporal dynamics and global world consistency, which limits their foresight and safety. In contrast, world models can simulate plausible future scenes but generally struggle to reason about or evaluate the imagined future they generate. In this work, we present VLA-World, a simple yet effective VLA world model that unifies predictive imagination with reflective reasoning to improve driving foresight. VLA-World first uses an action-derived feasible trajectory to guide the generation of the next-frame image, capturing rich spatial and temporal cues that describe how the surrounding environment evolves. The model then reasons over this self-generated future imagined frame to refine the predicted trajectory, achieving higher performance and better interpretability. To support this pipeline, we curate nuScenes-GR-20K, a generative reasoning dataset derived from nuScenes, and employ a three-stage training strategy that includes pretraining, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that VLA-World consistently surpasses state-of-the-art VLA and world-model baselines on both planning and future-generation benchmarks. Project page: https://vlaworld.github.io

Progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) has largely relied on scaling a resource-intensive executive, System-2, through larger models, more data and compute, longer reasoning, and more agents. We ask whether the next stage may come instead from co-designing it with System-1, a lightweight, semantically aware predictor that evaluates candidate interactions before execution, so that System-2 acts only on those worth their cost. Our answer is a qualified yes. We study conditional interaction, a predict--gate--execute--update loop: System-1 estimates each candidate's utility, System-2 executes those admitted by an adaptive threshold, and the outcomes update System-1. The loop spans training, test-time reasoning, adaptive decision-making, and agentic tool use, with utility and cost defined by the application. Under ideal screening and equal execution costs, execution compute falls by a factor approaching 1/ρ_u, where ρ_u is the density of utility-relevant interactions (cost-weighted when costs differ); prediction errors, exploration, and distribution shift reduce the saving. We bound selection regret by predictor error and the utility margin. These results motivate our central hypothesis: ρ_u is a measurable coordinate of scaling efficiency and makes informative compute a better description of scaling than total compute.

Energy-based predictive world models provide a powerful approach for multi-step visual planning by reasoning over latent energy landscapes rather than generating pixels. However, existing approaches face two major challenges: (i) their latent representations are typically learned in Euclidean space, neglecting the underlying geometric and hierarchical structure among states, and (ii) they struggle with long-horizon prediction, which leads to rapid degradation across extended rollouts. To address these challenges, we introduce GeoWorld, a geometric world model that preserves geometric structure and hierarchical relations through a Hyperbolic JEPA, which maps latent representations from Euclidean space onto hyperbolic manifolds. We further introduce Geometric Reinforcement Learning for energy-based optimization, enabling stable multi-step planning in hyperbolic latent space. Extensive experiments on CrossTask and COIN demonstrate around 3% SR improvement in 3-step planning and 2% SR improvement in 4-step planning compared to the state-of-the-art V-JEPA 2. Project website: https://steve-zeyu-zhang.github.io/GeoWorld.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has been an effective approach for improving Large Language Models' reasoning in domains such as coding and mathematics. Here, we apply RLVR methods towards forecasting future real-world events - a challenging task for RL due to the very noisy (and delayed) outcomes involved. Using a novel dataset of recent questions from a prediction market, and accompanying relevant news headlines, we show that a compact (14B) reasoning model can be trained to match or surpass the predictive accuracy of frontier models like o1, while greatly improving probabilistic calibration. The model's performance is also practically meaningful: in a Polymarket trading simulation, we estimate that its bets would have yielded a return on investment of over 10% across all questions in the test set. We detail and compare approaches used in training our model, including augmenting our training-data with synthetic prediction questions, guardrails for learning stability, and median prediction sampling at inference-time.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) remains indispensable for aligning large language models (LLMs) in subjective domains. To enhance robustness, recent work shifts toward Generative Reward Models (GenRMs) that generate rationales before predicting preferences. Yet in GenRM training and evaluation, practice remains outcome-label-only, leaving reasoning quality unchecked. We show that reasoning fidelity-the consistency between a GenRM's preference decision and reference decision rationales-is highly predictive of downstream RLHF outcomes, beyond standard label accuracy. Specifically, we repurpose existing reward-model benchmarks to compute Spurious Correctness (S-Corr)-the fraction of label-correct decisions with rationales misaligned with golden judgments. Our empirical evaluation reveals substantial S-Corr even for competitive GenRMs, and higher S-Corr is associated with policy degeneration under optimization. To improve fidelity, we propose Rationale-Centric Alignment, R-Align, which augments training with gold judgments and explicitly supervises rationale alignment. R-Align reduces S-Corr on RM benchmarks and yields consistent gains in actor performance across STEM, coding, instruction following, and general tasks.

This paper addresses the general problem of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. In 2013, our large RL recurrent neural networks (RNNs) learned from scratch to drive simulated cars from high-dimensional video input. However, real brains are more powerful in many ways. In particular, they learn a predictive model of their initially unknown environment, and somehow use it for abstract (e.g., hierarchical) planning and reasoning. Guided by algorithmic information theory, we describe RNN-based AIs (RNNAIs) designed to do the same. Such an RNNAI can be trained on never-ending sequences of tasks, some of them provided by the user, others invented by the RNNAI itself in a curious, playful fashion, to improve its RNN-based world model. Unlike our previous model-building RNN-based RL machines dating back to 1990, the RNNAI learns to actively query its model for abstract reasoning and planning and decision making, essentially "learning to think." The basic ideas of this report can be applied to many other cases where one RNN-like system exploits the algorithmic information content of another. They are taken from a grant proposal submitted in Fall 2014, and also explain concepts such as "mirror neurons." Experimental results will be described in separate papers.