Daily Papers

Drug-protein binding and dissociation dynamics are fundamental to understanding molecular interactions in biological systems. While many tools for drug-protein interaction studies have emerged, especially artificial intelligence (AI)-based generative models, predictive tools on binding/dissociation kinetics and dynamics are still limited. We propose a novel research paradigm that combines molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, enhanced sampling, and AI generative models to address this issue. We propose an enhanced sampling strategy to efficiently implement the drug-protein dissociation process in MD simulations and estimate the free energy surface (FES). We constructed a program pipeline of MD simulations based on this sampling strategy, thus generating a dataset including 26,612 drug-protein dissociation trajectories containing about 13 million frames. We named this dissociation dynamics dataset DD-13M and used it to train a deep equivariant generative model UnbindingFlow, which can generate collision-free dissociation trajectories. The DD-13M database and UnbindingFlow model represent a significant advancement in computational structural biology, and we anticipate its broad applicability in machine learning studies of drug-protein interactions. Our ongoing efforts focus on expanding this methodology to encompass a broader spectrum of drug-protein complexes and exploring novel applications in pathway prediction.

News article revision histories provide clues to narrative and factual evolution in news articles. To facilitate analysis of this evolution, we present the first publicly available dataset of news revision histories, NewsEdits. Our dataset is large-scale and multilingual; it contains 1.2 million articles with 4.6 million versions from over 22 English- and French-language newspaper sources based in three countries, spanning 15 years of coverage (2006-2021). We define article-level edit actions: Addition, Deletion, Edit and Refactor, and develop a high-accuracy extraction algorithm to identify these actions. To underscore the factual nature of many edit actions, we conduct analyses showing that added and deleted sentences are more likely to contain updating events, main content and quotes than unchanged sentences. Finally, to explore whether edit actions are predictable, we introduce three novel tasks aimed at predicting actions performed during version updates. We show that these tasks are possible for expert humans but are challenging for large NLP models. We hope this can spur research in narrative framing and help provide predictive tools for journalists chasing breaking news.

An introduction to the emerging fusion of machine learning and causal inference. The book presents ideas from classical structural equation models (SEMs) and their modern AI equivalent, directed acyclical graphs (DAGs) and structural causal models (SCMs), and covers Double/Debiased Machine Learning methods to do inference in such models using modern predictive tools.

1. The popularity of Machine learning (ML), Deep learning (DL), and Artificial intelligence (AI) has risen sharply in recent years. Despite this spike in popularity, the inner workings of ML and DL algorithms are often perceived as opaque, and their relationship to classical data analysis tools remains debated. 2. Although it is often assumed that ML and DL excel primarily at making predictions, ML and DL can also be used for analytical tasks traditionally addressed with statistical models. Moreover, most recent discussions and reviews on ML focus mainly on DL, missing out on synthesizing the wealth of ML algorithms with different advantages and general principles. 3. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the field of ML and DL, starting by summarizing its historical developments, existing algorithm families, differences to traditional statistical tools, and universal ML principles. We then discuss why and when ML and DL models excel at prediction tasks and where they could offer alternatives to traditional statistical methods for inference, highlighting current and emerging applications for ecological problems. Finally, we summarize emerging trends such as scientific and causal ML, explainable AI, and responsible AI that may significantly impact ecological data analysis in the future. 4. We conclude that ML and DL are powerful new tools for predictive modeling and data analysis. The superior performance of ML and DL algorithms compared to statistical models can be explained by their higher flexibility and automatic data-dependent complexity optimization. However, their use for causal inference is still disputed as the focus of ML and DL methods on predictions creates challenges for the interpretation of these models. Nevertheless, we expect ML and DL to become an indispensable tool in E&E, comparable to other traditional statistical tools.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

Agentic data science (ADS) systems are rapidly improving their capability to autonomously analyze, fit, and interpret data, potentially moving towards a future where agents conduct the vast majority of data-science work. However, current ADS systems use statistical tools designed to be interpretable by humans, rather than interpretable by agents. To address this, we introduce Agentic-imodels, an agentic autoresearch loop that evolves data-science tools designed to be interpretable by agents. Specifically, it develops a library of scikit-learn-compatible regressors for tabular data that are optimized for both predictive performance and a novel LLM-based interpretability metric. The metric measures a suite of LLM-graded tests that probe whether a fitted model's string representation is "simulatable" by an LLM, i.e. whether the LLM can answer questions about the model's behavior by reading its string output alone. We find that the evolved models jointly improve predictive performance and agent-facing interpretability, generalizing to new datasets and new interpretability tests. Furthermore, these evolved models improve downstream end-to-end ADS, increasing performance for Copilot CLI, Claude Code, and Codex on the BLADE benchmark by up to 73%

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

Trustworthy interpretation of deep learning models is critical for neuroimaging applications, yet commonly used Explainable AI (XAI) methods lack rigorous validation, risking misinterpretation. We performed the first large-scale, systematic comparison of XAI methods on ~45,000 structural brain MRIs using a novel XAI validation framework. This framework establishes verifiable ground truth by constructing prediction tasks with known signal sources - from localized anatomical features to subject-specific clinical lesions - without artificially altering input images. Our analysis reveals systematic failures in two of the most widely used methods: GradCAM consistently failed to localize predictive features, while Layer-wise Relevance Propagation generated extensive, artifactual explanations that suggest incompatibility with neuroimaging data characteristics. Our results indicate that these failures stem from a domain mismatch, where methods with design principles tailored to natural images require substantial adaptation for neuroimaging data. In contrast, the simpler, gradient-based method SmoothGrad, which makes fewer assumptions about data structure, proved consistently accurate, suggesting its conceptual simplicity makes it more robust to this domain shift. These findings highlight the need for domain-specific adaptation and validation of XAI methods, suggest that interpretations from prior neuroimaging studies using standard XAI methodology warrant re-evaluation, and provide urgent guidance for practical application of XAI in neuroimaging.

Despite its significant promise and continuous technical advances, real-world applications of artificial intelligence (AI) remain limited. We attribute this to the "domain expert-AI-conundrum": while domain experts, such as clinician scientists, should be able to build predictive models such as risk scores, they face substantial barriers in accessing state-of-the-art (SOTA) tools. While automated machine learning (AutoML) has been proposed as a partner in clinical predictive modeling, many additional requirements need to be fulfilled to make machine learning accessible for clinician scientists. To address this gap, we introduce CliMB, a no-code AI-enabled partner designed to empower clinician scientists to create predictive models using natural language. CliMB guides clinician scientists through the entire medical data science pipeline, thus empowering them to create predictive models from real-world data in just one conversation. CliMB also creates structured reports and interpretable visuals. In evaluations involving clinician scientists and systematic comparisons against a baseline GPT-4, CliMB consistently demonstrated superior performance in key areas such as planning, error prevention, code execution, and model performance. Moreover, in blinded assessments involving 45 clinicians from diverse specialties and career stages, more than 80% preferred CliMB over GPT-4. Overall, by providing a no-code interface with clear guidance and access to SOTA methods in the fields of data-centric AI, AutoML, and interpretable ML, CliMB empowers clinician scientists to build robust predictive models. The proof-of-concept version of CliMB is available as open-source software on GitHub: https://github.com/vanderschaarlab/climb.

We present formulation and open-source tools to achieve in-material model predictive control of sensor/actuator systems using learned forward kinematics and on-device computation. Microcontroller units (MCUs) that compute the prediction and control task while colocated with the sensors and actuators enable in-material untethered behaviors. In this approach, small parameter size neural network models learn forward kinematics offline. Our open-source compiler, nn4mc, generates code to offload these predictions onto MCUs. A Newton-Raphson solver then computes the control input in real time. We first benchmark this nonlinear control approach against a PID controller on a mass-spring-damper simulation. We then study experimental results on two experimental rigs with different sensing, actuation and computational hardware: a tendon-based platform with embedded LightLace sensors and a HASEL-based platform with magnetic sensors. Experimental results indicate effective high-bandwidth tracking of reference paths (greater than or equal to 120 Hz) with a small memory footprint (less than or equal to 6.4% of flash memory). The measured path following error does not exceed 2mm in the tendon-based platform. The simulated path following error does not exceed 1mm in the HASEL-based platform. The mean power consumption of this approach in an ARM Cortex-M4f device is 45.4 mW. This control approach is also compatible with Tensorflow Lite models and equivalent on-device code. In-material intelligence enables a new class of composites that infuse autonomy into structures and systems with refined artificial proprioception.

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the most popular tools for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, standard CV suffers from high computational cost when the number of folds is large. Recently, under the empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework, a line of works proposed efficient methods to approximate CV based on the solution of the ERM problem trained on the full dataset. However, in large-scale problems, it can be hard to obtain the exact solution of the ERM problem, either due to limited computational resources or due to early stopping as a way of preventing overfitting. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm to efficiently approximate CV when the ERM problem is solved via an iterative first-order algorithm, without running until convergence. Our new method extends existing guarantees for CV approximation to hold along the whole trajectory of the algorithm, including at convergence, thus generalizing existing CV approximation methods. Finally, we illustrate the accuracy and computational efficiency of our method through a range of empirical studies.

Sparse linear models are one of several core tools for interpretable machine learning, a field of emerging importance as predictive models permeate decision-making in many domains. Unfortunately, sparse linear models are far less flexible as functions of their input features than black-box models like deep neural networks. With this capability gap in mind, we study a not-uncommon situation where the input features dichotomize into two groups: explanatory features, which are candidates for inclusion as variables in an interpretable model, and contextual features, which select from the candidate variables and determine their effects. This dichotomy leads us to the contextual lasso, a new statistical estimator that fits a sparse linear model to the explanatory features such that the sparsity pattern and coefficients vary as a function of the contextual features. The fitting process learns this function nonparametrically via a deep neural network. To attain sparse coefficients, we train the network with a novel lasso regularizer in the form of a projection layer that maps the network's output onto the space of ell_1-constrained linear models. An extensive suite of experiments on real and synthetic data suggests that the learned models, which remain highly transparent, can be sparser than the regular lasso without sacrificing the predictive power of a standard deep neural network.

Heat pumps are essential for decarbonizing residential heating but consume substantial electrical energy, impacting operational costs and grid demand. Many systems run inefficiently due to planning flaws, operational faults, or misconfigurations. While optimizing performance requires skilled professionals, labor shortages hinder large-scale interventions. However, digital tools and improved data availability create new service opportunities for energy efficiency, predictive maintenance, and demand-side management. To support research and practical solutions, we present an open-source dataset of electricity consumption from 1,408 households with heat pumps and smart electricity meters in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland, recorded at 15-minute and daily resolutions between 2018-11-03 and 2024-03-21. The dataset includes household metadata, weather data from 8 stations, and ground truth data from 410 field visit protocols collected by energy consultants during system optimizations. Additionally, the dataset includes a Python-based data loader to facilitate seamless data processing and exploration.

Artificial intelligence is being utilized in many domains as of late, and the legal system is no exception. However, as it stands now, the number of well-annotated datasets pertaining to legal documents from the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is very limited for public use. Even though the Supreme Court rulings are public domain knowledge, trying to do meaningful work with them becomes a much greater task due to the need to manually gather and process that data from scratch each time. Hence, our goal is to create a high-quality dataset of SCOTUS court cases so that they may be readily used in natural language processing (NLP) research and other data-driven applications. Additionally, recent advances in NLP provide us with the tools to build predictive models that can be used to reveal patterns that influence court decisions. By using advanced NLP algorithms to analyze previous court cases, the trained models are able to predict and classify a court's judgment given the case's facts from the plaintiff and the defendant in textual format; in other words, the model is emulating a human jury by generating a final verdict.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are reshaping many aspects of materials science and chemistry research, enabling advances in molecular property prediction, materials design, scientific automation, knowledge extraction, and more. Recent developments demonstrate that the latest class of models are able to integrate structured and unstructured data, assist in hypothesis generation, and streamline research workflows. To explore the frontier of LLM capabilities across the research lifecycle, we review applications of LLMs through 34 total projects developed during the second annual Large Language Model Hackathon for Applications in Materials Science and Chemistry, a global hybrid event. These projects spanned seven key research areas: (1) molecular and material property prediction, (2) molecular and material design, (3) automation and novel interfaces, (4) scientific communication and education, (5) research data management and automation, (6) hypothesis generation and evaluation, and (7) knowledge extraction and reasoning from the scientific literature. Collectively, these applications illustrate how LLMs serve as versatile predictive models, platforms for rapid prototyping of domain-specific tools, and much more. In particular, improvements in both open source and proprietary LLM performance through the addition of reasoning, additional training data, and new techniques have expanded effectiveness, particularly in low-data environments and interdisciplinary research. As LLMs continue to improve, their integration into scientific workflows presents both new opportunities and new challenges, requiring ongoing exploration, continued refinement, and further research to address reliability, interpretability, and reproducibility.

Through the integration of external tools, large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4o and Llama 3.1 significantly expand their functional capabilities, evolving from elementary conversational agents to general-purpose assistants. We argue that the primary drivers of these advancements are the quality and diversity of the training data. However, the existing LLMs with external tool integration provide only limited transparency regarding their datasets and data collection methods, which has led to the initiation of this research. Specifically, in this paper, our objective is to elucidate the detailed process involved in constructing datasets that empower LLMs to effectively learn how to utilize external tools and make this information available to the public through the introduction of ToolBridge. ToolBridge proposes to employ a collection of general open-access datasets as its raw dataset pool and applies a series of strategies to identify appropriate data entries from the pool for external tool API insertions. By supervised fine-tuning on these curated data entries, LLMs can invoke external tools in appropriate contexts to boost their predictive accuracy, particularly for basic functions including data processing, numerical computation, and factual retrieval. Our experiments rigorously isolates model architectures and training configurations, focusing exclusively on the role of data. The experimental results indicate that LLMs trained on ToolBridge demonstrate consistent performance improvements on both standard benchmarks and custom evaluation datasets. All the associated code and data will be open-source at https://github.com/CharlesPikachu/ToolBridge, promoting transparency and facilitating the broader community to explore approaches for equipping LLMs with external tools capabilities.

The convergence of artificial intelligence and materials science presents a transformative opportunity, but achieving true acceleration in discovery requires moving beyond task-isolated, fine-tuned models toward agentic systems that plan, act, and learn across the full discovery loop. This survey advances a unique pipeline-centric view that spans from corpus curation and pretraining, through domain adaptation and instruction tuning, to goal-conditioned agents interfacing with simulation and experimental platforms. Unlike prior reviews, we treat the entire process as an end-to-end system to be optimized for tangible discovery outcomes rather than proxy benchmarks. This perspective allows us to trace how upstream design choices-such as data curation and training objectives-can be aligned with downstream experimental success through effective credit assignment. To bridge communities and establish a shared frame of reference, we first present an integrated lens that aligns terminology, evaluation, and workflow stages across AI and materials science. We then analyze the field through two focused lenses: From the AI perspective, the survey details LLM strengths in pattern recognition, predictive analytics, and natural language processing for literature mining, materials characterization, and property prediction; from the materials science perspective, it highlights applications in materials design, process optimization, and the acceleration of computational workflows via integration with external tools (e.g., DFT, robotic labs). Finally, we contrast passive, reactive approaches with agentic design, cataloging current contributions while motivating systems that pursue long-horizon goals with autonomy, memory, and tool use. This survey charts a practical roadmap towards autonomous, safety-aware LLM agents aimed at discovering novel and useful materials.

Tool calling has become increasingly popular for Large Language Models (LLMs). However, for large tool sets, the resulting tokens would exceed the LLM's context window limit, making it impossible to include every tool. Hence, an external retriever is used to provide LLMs with the most relevant tools for a query. Existing retrieval models rank tools based on the similarity between a user query and a tool description (TD). This leads to suboptimal retrieval as user requests are often poorly aligned with the language of TD. To remedy the issue, we propose ToolDreamer, a framework to condition retriever models to fetch tools based on hypothetical (synthetic) TD generated using an LLM, i.e., description of tools that the LLM feels will be potentially useful for the query. The framework enables a more natural alignment between queries and tools within the language space of TD's. We apply ToolDreamer on the ToolRet dataset and show that our method improves the performance of sparse and dense retrievers with and without training, thus showcasing its flexibility. Through our proposed framework, our aim is to offload a portion of the reasoning burden to the retriever so that the LLM may effectively handle a large collection of tools without inundating its context window.

Recent advancements in function calling and tool use have significantly enhanced the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by enabling them to interact with external information sources and execute complex tasks. However, the limited context window of LLMs presents challenges when a large number of tools are available, necessitating efficient methods to manage prompt length and maintain accuracy. Existing approaches, such as fine-tuning LLMs or leveraging their reasoning capabilities, either require frequent retraining or incur significant latency overhead. A more efficient solution involves training smaller models to retrieve the most relevant tools for a given query, although this requires high quality, domain-specific data. To address those challenges, we present a novel framework for generating synthetic data for tool retrieval applications and an efficient data-driven tool retrieval strategy using small encoder models. Empowered by LLMs, we create ToolBank, a new tool retrieval dataset that reflects real human user usages. For tool retrieval methodologies, we propose novel approaches: (1) Tool2Vec: usage-driven tool embedding generation for tool retrieval, (2) ToolRefiner: a staged retrieval method that iteratively improves the quality of retrieved tools, and (3) MLC: framing tool retrieval as a multi-label classification problem. With these new methods, we achieve improvements of up to 27.28 in Recall@K on the ToolBench dataset and 30.5 in Recall@K on ToolBank. Additionally, we present further experimental results to rigorously validate our methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/SqueezeAILab/Tool2Vec

Using tools by Large Language Models (LLMs) is a promising avenue to extend their reach beyond language or conversational settings. The number of tools can scale to thousands as they enable accessing sensory information, fetching updated factual knowledge, or taking actions in the real world. In such settings, in-context learning by providing a short list of relevant tools in the prompt is a viable approach. To retrieve relevant tools, various approaches have been suggested, ranging from simple frequency-based matching to dense embedding-based semantic retrieval. However, such approaches lack the contextual and common-sense understanding required to retrieve the right tools for complex user requests. Rather than increasing the complexity of the retrieval component itself, we propose leveraging LLM understanding to generate a retrieval query. Then, the generated query is embedded and used to find the most relevant tools via a nearest-neighbor search. We investigate three approaches for query generation: zero-shot prompting, supervised fine-tuning on tool descriptions, and alignment learning by iteratively optimizing a reward metric measuring retrieval performance. By conducting extensive experiments on a dataset covering complex and multi-tool scenarios, we show that leveraging LLMs for query generation improves the retrieval for in-domain (seen tools) and out-of-domain (unseen tools) settings.

We present the Legal Passage Retrieval Dataset LePaRD. LePaRD is a massive collection of U.S. federal judicial citations to precedent in context. The dataset aims to facilitate work on legal passage prediction, a challenging practice-oriented legal retrieval and reasoning task. Legal passage prediction seeks to predict relevant passages from precedential court decisions given the context of a legal argument. We extensively evaluate various retrieval approaches on LePaRD, and find that classification appears to work best. However, we note that legal precedent prediction is a difficult task, and there remains significant room for improvement. We hope that by publishing LePaRD, we will encourage others to engage with a legal NLP task that promises to help expand access to justice by reducing the burden associated with legal research. A subset of the LePaRD dataset is freely available and the whole dataset will be released upon publication.

Recent advances in large language models have led to renewed interest in natural language processing in healthcare using the free text of clinical notes. One distinguishing characteristic of clinical notes is their long time span over multiple long documents. The unique structure of clinical notes creates a new design choice: when the context length for a language model predictor is limited, which part of clinical notes should we choose as the input? Existing studies either choose the inputs with domain knowledge or simply truncate them. We propose a framework to analyze the sections with high predictive power. Using MIMIC-III, we show that: 1) predictive power distribution is different between nursing notes and discharge notes and 2) combining different types of notes could improve performance when the context length is large. Our findings suggest that a carefully selected sampling function could enable more efficient information extraction from clinical notes.

While the recent developments in large language models (LLMs) have successfully enabled generative recommenders with natural language interactions, their recommendation behavior is limited, leaving other simpler yet crucial components such as metadata or attribute filtering underutilized in the system. We propose an LLM-based music recommendation system with tool calling to serve as a unified retrieval-reranking pipeline. Our system positions an LLM as an end-to-end recommendation system that interprets user intent, plans tool invocations, and orchestrates specialized components: boolean filters (SQL), sparse retrieval (BM25), dense retrieval (embedding similarity), and generative retrieval (semantic IDs). Through tool planning, the system predicts which types of tools to use, their execution order, and the arguments needed to find music matching user preferences, supporting diverse modalities while seamlessly integrating multiple database filtering methods. We demonstrate that this unified tool-calling framework achieves competitive performance across diverse recommendation scenarios by selectively employing appropriate retrieval methods based on user queries, envisioning a new paradigm for conversational music recommendation systems.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Conventional recommender systems (RSs) face challenges in precisely capturing users' fine-grained preferences. Large language models (LLMs) have shown capabilities in commonsense reasoning and leveraging external tools that may help address these challenges. However, existing LLM-based RSs suffer from hallucinations, misalignment between the semantic space of items and the behavior space of users, or overly simplistic control strategies (e.g., whether to rank or directly present existing results). To bridge these gap, we introduce ToolRec, a framework for LLM-empowered recommendations via tool learning that uses LLMs as surrogate users, thereby guiding the recommendation process and invoking external tools to generate a recommendation list that aligns closely with users' nuanced preferences. We formulate the recommendation process as a process aimed at exploring user interests in attribute granularity. The process factors in the nuances of the context and user preferences. The LLM then invokes external tools based on a user's attribute instructions and probes different segments of the item pool. We consider two types of attribute-oriented tools: rank tools and retrieval tools. Through the integration of LLMs, ToolRec enables conventional recommender systems to become external tools with a natural language interface. Extensive experiments verify the effectiveness of ToolRec, particularly in scenarios that are rich in semantic content.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and becomes central to business success. This paper addresses the multifaceted nature of recommendations system evaluation by introducing a comprehensive suite of metrics, each tailored to capture a distinct aspect of system performance. We discuss * Similarity Metrics: to quantify the precision of content-based filtering mechanisms and assess the accuracy of collaborative filtering techniques. * Candidate Generation Metrics: to evaluate how effectively the system identifies a broad yet relevant range of items. * Predictive Metrics: to assess the accuracy of forecasted user preferences. * Ranking Metrics: to evaluate the effectiveness of the order in which recommendations are presented. * Business Metrics: to align the performance of the recommendation system with economic objectives. Our approach emphasizes the contextual application of these metrics and their interdependencies. In this paper, we identify the strengths and limitations of current evaluation practices and highlight the nuanced trade-offs that emerge when optimizing recommendation systems across different metrics. The paper concludes by proposing a framework for selecting and interpreting these metrics to not only improve system performance but also to advance business goals. This work is to aid researchers and practitioners in critically assessing recommendation systems and fosters the development of more nuanced, effective, and economically viable personalization strategies. Our code is available at GitHub - https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Evaluation-Metrics-for-Recommendation-Systems.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

Machine learning shows promise in predicting the outcome of legal cases, but most research has concentrated on civil law cases rather than case law systems. We identified two unique challenges in making legal case outcome predictions with case law. First, it is crucial to identify relevant precedent cases that serve as fundamental evidence for judges during decision-making. Second, it is necessary to consider the evolution of legal principles over time, as early cases may adhere to different legal contexts. In this paper, we proposed a new framework named PILOT (PredictIng Legal case OuTcome) for case outcome prediction. It comprises two modules for relevant case retrieval and temporal pattern handling, respectively. To benchmark the performance of existing legal case outcome prediction models, we curated a dataset from a large-scale case law database. We demonstrate the importance of accurately identifying precedent cases and mitigating the temporal shift when making predictions for case law, as our method shows a significant improvement over the prior methods that focus on civil law case outcome predictions.

The exponential growth of scientific literature necessitates advanced tools for effective knowledge exploration. We present Knowledge Navigator, a system designed to enhance exploratory search abilities by organizing and structuring the retrieved documents from broad topical queries into a navigable, two-level hierarchy of named and descriptive scientific topics and subtopics. This structured organization provides an overall view of the research themes in a domain, while also enabling iterative search and deeper knowledge discovery within specific subtopics by allowing users to refine their focus and retrieve additional relevant documents. Knowledge Navigator combines LLM capabilities with cluster-based methods to enable an effective browsing method. We demonstrate our approach's effectiveness through automatic and manual evaluations on two novel benchmarks, CLUSTREC-COVID and SCITOC. Our code, prompts, and benchmarks are made publicly available.

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Using Large Language Models (LLMs) for relevance assessments offers promising opportunities to improve Information Retrieval (IR), Natural Language Processing (NLP), and related fields. Indeed, LLMs hold the promise of allowing IR experimenters to build evaluation collections with a fraction of the manual human labor currently required. This could help with fresh topics on which there is still limited knowledge and could mitigate the challenges of evaluating ranking systems in low-resource scenarios, where it is challenging to find human annotators. Given the fast-paced recent developments in the domain, many questions concerning LLMs as assessors are yet to be answered. Among the aspects that require further investigation, we can list the impact of various components in a relevance judgment generation pipeline, such as the prompt used or the LLM chosen. This paper benchmarks and reports on the results of a large-scale automatic relevance judgment evaluation, the LLMJudge challenge at SIGIR 2024, where different relevance assessment approaches were proposed. In detail, we release and benchmark 42 LLM-generated labels of the TREC 2023 Deep Learning track relevance judgments produced by eight international teams who participated in the challenge. Given their diverse nature, these automatically generated relevance judgments can help the community not only investigate systematic biases caused by LLMs but also explore the effectiveness of ensemble models, analyze the trade-offs between different models and human assessors, and advance methodologies for improving automated evaluation techniques. The released resource is available at the following link: https://llm4eval.github.io/LLMJudge-benchmark/

We automate deep step-by step reasoning in an LLM dialog thread by recursively exploring alternatives (OR-nodes) and expanding details (AND-nodes) up to a given depth. Starting from a single succinct task-specific initiator we steer the automated dialog thread to stay focussed on the task by synthesizing a prompt that summarizes the depth-first steps taken so far. Our algorithm is derived from a simple recursive descent implementation of a Horn Clause interpreter, except that we accommodate our logic engine to fit the natural language reasoning patterns LLMs have been trained on. Semantic similarity to ground-truth facts or oracle advice from another LLM instance is used to restrict the search space and validate the traces of justification steps returned as answers. At the end, the unique minimal model of a generated Horn Clause program collects the results of the reasoning process. As applications, we sketch implementations of consequence predictions, causal explanations, recommendation systems and topic-focussed exploration of scientific literature.

Tool learning aims to enhance and expand large language models' (LLMs) capabilities with external tools, which has gained significant attention recently. Current methods have shown that LLMs can effectively handle a certain amount of tools through in-context learning or fine-tuning. However, in real-world scenarios, the number of tools is typically extensive and irregularly updated, emphasizing the necessity for a dedicated tool retrieval component. Tool retrieval is nontrivial due to the following challenges: 1) complex user instructions and tool descriptions; 2) misalignment between tool retrieval and tool usage models. To address the above issues, we propose to enhance tool retrieval with iterative feedback from the large language model. Specifically, we prompt the tool usage model, i.e., the LLM, to provide feedback for the tool retriever model in multi-round, which could progressively improve the tool retriever's understanding of instructions and tools and reduce the gap between the two standalone components. We build a unified and comprehensive benchmark to evaluate tool retrieval models. The extensive experiments indicate that our proposed approach achieves advanced performance in both in-domain evaluation and out-of-domain evaluation.

Prompt learning's fine-tune performance on text classification tasks has attracted the NLP community. This paper applies it to resume information extraction, improving existing methods for this task. We created manual templates and verbalizers tailored to resume texts and compared the performance of Masked Language Model (MLM) and Seq2Seq PLMs. Also, we enhanced the verbalizer design for Knowledgeable Prompt-tuning, contributing to prompt template design across NLP tasks. We present the Manual Knowledgeable Verbalizer (MKV), a rule for constructing verbalizers for specific applications. Our tests show that MKV rules yield more effective, robust templates and verbalizers than existing methods. Our MKV approach resolved sample imbalance, surpassing current automatic prompt methods. This study underscores the value of tailored prompt learning for resume extraction, stressing the importance of custom-designed templates and verbalizers.

Language models (LMs) exhibit remarkable abilities to solve new tasks from just a few examples or textual instructions, especially at scale. They also, paradoxically, struggle with basic functionality, such as arithmetic or factual lookup, where much simpler and smaller models excel. In this paper, we show that LMs can teach themselves to use external tools via simple APIs and achieve the best of both worlds. We introduce Toolformer, a model trained to decide which APIs to call, when to call them, what arguments to pass, and how to best incorporate the results into future token prediction. This is done in a self-supervised way, requiring nothing more than a handful of demonstrations for each API. We incorporate a range of tools, including a calculator, a Q\&A system, two different search engines, a translation system, and a calendar. Toolformer achieves substantially improved zero-shot performance across a variety of downstream tasks, often competitive with much larger models, without sacrificing its core language modeling abilities.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Predictive process monitoring is a process mining task aimed at forecasting information about a running process trace, such as the most correct next activity to be executed. In medical domains, predictive process monitoring can provide valuable decision support in atypical and nontrivial situations. Decision support and quality assessment in medicine cannot ignore domain knowledge, in order to be grounded on all the available information (which is not limited to data) and to be really acceptable by end users. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring approach relying on the use of a {\em transformer}, a deep learning architecture based on the attention mechanism. A major contribution of our work lies in the incorporation of ontological domain-specific knowledge, carried out through a graph positional encoding technique. The paper presents and discusses the encouraging experimental result we are collecting in the domain of stroke management.

External tools help large language models succeed at tasks where they would otherwise typically fail. In existing frameworks, choosing tools at test time relies on naive greedy decoding, regardless of whether the model has been fine-tuned on tool-annotated data or prompted with in-context examples. In contrast, we find that gathering and choosing among a suitable set of candidate tools has greater potential to lead to an optimal selection. We present Tool selECTion via meta-reasONing (TECTON), a two-phase system that first reasons over a task and outputs candidate tools using a custom fine-tuned language modelling head. Then, with the custom head disabled, it meta-reasons (i.e., it reasons over the previous reasoning process) to make a final choice. We show that TECTON results in substantial gains--both in-distribution and out-of-distribution--on a range of math reasoning datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) have garnered significant attention due to their impressive natural language processing (NLP) capabilities. Recently, many studies have focused on the tool utilization ability of LLMs. They primarily investigated how LLMs effectively collaborate with given specific tools. However, in scenarios where LLMs serve as intelligent agents, as seen in applications like AutoGPT and MetaGPT, LLMs are expected to engage in intricate decision-making processes that involve deciding whether to employ a tool and selecting the most suitable tool(s) from a collection of available tools to fulfill user requests. Therefore, in this paper, we introduce MetaTool, a benchmark designed to evaluate whether LLMs have tool usage awareness and can correctly choose tools. Specifically, we create a dataset called ToolE within the benchmark. This dataset contains various types of user queries in the form of prompts that trigger LLMs to use tools, including both single-tool and multi-tool scenarios. Subsequently, we set the tasks for both tool usage awareness and tool selection. We define four subtasks from different perspectives in tool selection, including tool selection with similar choices, tool selection in specific scenarios, tool selection with possible reliability issues, and multi-tool selection. We conduct experiments involving nine popular LLMs and find that the majority of them still struggle to effectively select tools, highlighting the existing gaps between LLMs and genuine intelligent agents. However, through the error analysis, we found there is still significant room for improvement. Finally, we conclude with insights for tool developers that follow ChatGPT to provide detailed descriptions that can enhance the tool selection performance of LLMs.

Language models (LMs) are powerful yet mostly for text generation tasks. Tools have substantially enhanced their performance for tasks that require complex skills. However, many works adopt the term "tool" in different ways, raising the question: What is a tool anyway? Subsequently, where and how do tools help LMs? In this survey, we provide a unified definition of tools as external programs used by LMs, and perform a systematic review of LM tooling scenarios and approaches. Grounded on this review, we empirically study the efficiency of various tooling methods by measuring their required compute and performance gains on various benchmarks, and highlight some challenges and potential future research in the field.

Prompting is a mainstream paradigm for adapting large language models to specific natural language processing tasks without modifying internal parameters. Therefore, detailed supplementary knowledge needs to be integrated into external prompts, which inevitably brings extra human efforts and computational burdens for practical applications. As an effective solution to mitigate resource consumption, Efficient Prompting Methods have attracted a wide range of attention. We provide mathematical expressions at a high level to deeply discuss Automatic Prompt Engineering for different prompt components and Prompt Compression in continuous and discrete spaces. Finally, we highlight promising future directions to inspire researchers interested in this field.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Legal practice has witnessed a sharp rise in products incorporating artificial intelligence (AI). Such tools are designed to assist with a wide range of core legal tasks, from search and summarization of caselaw to document drafting. But the large language models used in these tools are prone to "hallucinate," or make up false information, making their use risky in high-stakes domains. Recently, certain legal research providers have touted methods such as retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) as "eliminating" (Casetext, 2023) or "avoid[ing]" hallucinations (Thomson Reuters, 2023), or guaranteeing "hallucination-free" legal citations (LexisNexis, 2023). Because of the closed nature of these systems, systematically assessing these claims is challenging. In this article, we design and report on the first preregistered empirical evaluation of AI-driven legal research tools. We demonstrate that the providers' claims are overstated. While hallucinations are reduced relative to general-purpose chatbots (GPT-4), we find that the AI research tools made by LexisNexis (Lexis+ AI) and Thomson Reuters (Westlaw AI-Assisted Research and Ask Practical Law AI) each hallucinate between 17% and 33% of the time. We also document substantial differences between systems in responsiveness and accuracy. Our article makes four key contributions. It is the first to assess and report the performance of RAG-based proprietary legal AI tools. Second, it introduces a comprehensive, preregistered dataset for identifying and understanding vulnerabilities in these systems. Third, it proposes a clear typology for differentiating between hallucinations and accurate legal responses. Last, it provides evidence to inform the responsibilities of legal professionals in supervising and verifying AI outputs, which remains a central open question for the responsible integration of AI into law.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

Machine learning based decision-support tools in criminal justice systems are subjects of intense discussions and academic research. There are important open questions about the utility and fairness of such tools. Academic researchers often rely on a few small datasets that are not sufficient to empirically study various real-world aspects of these questions. In this paper, we contribute WCLD, a curated large dataset of 1.5 million criminal cases from circuit courts in the U.S. state of Wisconsin. We used reliable public data from 1970 to 2020 to curate attributes like prior criminal counts and recidivism outcomes. The dataset contains large number of samples from five racial groups, in addition to information like sex and age (at judgment and first offense). Other attributes in this dataset include neighborhood characteristics obtained from census data, detailed types of offense, charge severity, case decisions, sentence lengths, year of filing etc. We also provide pseudo-identifiers for judge, county and zipcode. The dataset will not only enable researchers to more rigorously study algorithmic fairness in the context of criminal justice, but also relate algorithmic challenges with various systemic issues. We also discuss in detail the process of constructing the dataset and provide a datasheet. The WCLD dataset is available at https://clezdata.github.io/wcld/.

Existing evaluations of tool learning primarily focus on validating the alignment of selected tools for large language models (LLMs) with expected outcomes. However, these approaches rely on a limited set of scenarios where answers can be pre-determined, diverging from genuine needs. Furthermore, a sole emphasis on outcomes disregards the intricate capabilities essential for LLMs to effectively utilize tools. To tackle this issue, we propose ToolEyes, a fine-grained system tailored for the evaluation of the LLMs' tool learning capabilities in authentic scenarios. The system meticulously examines seven real-world scenarios, analyzing five dimensions crucial to LLMs in tool learning: format alignment, intent comprehension, behavior planning, tool selection, and answer organization. Additionally, ToolEyes incorporates a tool library boasting approximately 600 tools, serving as an intermediary between LLMs and the physical world. Evaluations involving ten LLMs across three categories reveal a preference for specific scenarios and limited cognitive abilities in tool learning. Intriguingly, expanding the model size even exacerbates the hindrance to tool learning. These findings offer instructive insights aimed at advancing the field of tool learning. The data is available att https://github.com/Junjie-Ye/ToolEyes.

In this work, we survey the way in which classification is used as a sensemaking practice in cultural analytics, and assess where large language models can fit into this landscape. We identify ten tasks supported by publicly available datasets on which we empirically assess the performance of LLMs compared to traditional supervised methods, and explore the ways in which LLMs can be employed for sensemaking goals beyond mere accuracy. We find that prompt-based LLMs are competitive with traditional supervised models for established tasks, but perform less well on de novo tasks. In addition, LLMs can assist sensemaking by acting as an intermediary input to formal theory testing.

Teachers and students are increasingly relying on online learning resources to supplement the ones provided in school. This increase in the breadth and depth of available resources is a great thing for students, but only provided they are able to find answers to their queries. Question-answering and information retrieval systems have benefited from public datasets to train and evaluate their algorithms, but most of these datasets have been in English text written by and for adults. We introduce a new public French question-answering dataset collected from Alloprof, a Quebec-based primary and high-school help website, containing 29 349 questions and their explanations in a variety of school subjects from 10 368 students, with more than half of the explanations containing links to other questions or some of the 2 596 reference pages on the website. We also present a case study of this dataset in an information retrieval task. This dataset was collected on the Alloprof public forum, with all questions verified for their appropriateness and the explanations verified both for their appropriateness and their relevance to the question. To predict relevant documents, architectures using pre-trained BERT models were fine-tuned and evaluated. This dataset will allow researchers to develop question-answering, information retrieval and other algorithms specifically for the French speaking education context. Furthermore, the range of language proficiency, images, mathematical symbols and spelling mistakes will necessitate algorithms based on a multimodal comprehension. The case study we present as a baseline shows an approach that relies on recent techniques provides an acceptable performance level, but more work is necessary before it can reliably be used and trusted in a production setting.

The profusion of user generated content caused by the rise of social media platforms has enabled a surge in research relating to fields such as information retrieval, recommender systems, data mining and machine learning. However, the lack of comprehensive baseline data sets to allow a thorough evaluative comparison has become an important issue. In this paper we present a large data set of news items from well-known aggregators such as Google News and Yahoo! News, and their respective social feedback on multiple platforms: Facebook, Google+ and LinkedIn. The data collected relates to a period of 8 months, between November 2015 and July 2016, accounting for about 100,000 news items on four different topics: economy, microsoft, obama and palestine. This data set is tailored for evaluative comparisons in predictive analytics tasks, although allowing for tasks in other research areas such as topic detection and tracking, sentiment analysis in short text, first story detection or news recommendation.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

Tool learning aims to augment large language models (LLMs) with diverse tools, enabling them to act as agents for solving practical tasks. Due to the limited context length of tool-using LLMs, adopting information retrieval (IR) models to select useful tools from large toolsets is a critical initial step. However, the performance of IR models in tool retrieval tasks remains underexplored and unclear. Most tool-use benchmarks simplify this step by manually pre-annotating a small set of relevant tools for each task, which is far from the real-world scenarios. In this paper, we propose ToolRet, a heterogeneous tool retrieval benchmark comprising 7.6k diverse retrieval tasks, and a corpus of 43k tools, collected from existing datasets. We benchmark six types of models on ToolRet. Surprisingly, even the models with strong performance in conventional IR benchmarks, exhibit poor performance on ToolRet. This low retrieval quality degrades the task pass rate of tool-use LLMs. As a further step, we contribute a large-scale training dataset with over 200k instances, which substantially optimizes the tool retrieval ability of IR models.

Over the past several years, across the globe, there has been an increase in people seeking care in emergency departments (EDs). ED resources, including nurse staffing, are strained by such increases in patient volume. Accurate forecasting of incoming patient volume in emergency departments (ED) is crucial for efficient utilization and allocation of ED resources. Working with a suburban ED in the Pacific Northwest, we developed a tool powered by machine learning models, to forecast ED arrivals and ED patient volume to assist end-users, such as ED nurses, in resource allocation. In this paper, we discuss the results from our predictive models, the challenges, and the learnings from users' experiences with the tool in active clinical deployment in a real world setting.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated new possibilities for accurate and efficient time series analysis, but prior work often required heavy fine-tuning and/or ignored inter-series correlations. In this work, we explore simple and flexible prompt-based strategies that enable LLMs to perform time series forecasting without extensive retraining or the use of a complex external architecture. Through the exploration of specialized prompting methods that leverage time series decomposition, patch-based tokenization, and similarity-based neighbor augmentation, we find that it is possible to enhance LLM forecasting quality while maintaining simplicity and requiring minimal preprocessing of data. To this end, we propose our own method, PatchInstruct, which enables LLMs to make precise and effective predictions.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Recently, integrating external tools with Large Language Models (LLMs) has gained significant attention as an effective strategy to mitigate the limitations inherent in their pre-training data. However, real-world systems often incorporate a wide array of tools, making it impractical to input all tools into LLMs due to length limitations and latency constraints. Therefore, to fully exploit the potential of tool-augmented LLMs, it is crucial to develop an effective tool retrieval system. Existing tool retrieval methods primarily focus on semantic matching between user queries and tool descriptions, frequently leading to the retrieval of redundant, similar tools. Consequently, these methods fail to provide a complete set of diverse tools necessary for addressing the multifaceted problems encountered by LLMs. In this paper, we propose a novel modelagnostic COllaborative Learning-based Tool Retrieval approach, COLT, which captures not only the semantic similarities between user queries and tool descriptions but also takes into account the collaborative information of tools. Specifically, we first fine-tune the PLM-based retrieval models to capture the semantic relationships between queries and tools in the semantic learning stage. Subsequently, we construct three bipartite graphs among queries, scenes, and tools and introduce a dual-view graph collaborative learning framework to capture the intricate collaborative relationships among tools during the collaborative learning stage. Extensive experiments on both the open benchmark and the newly introduced ToolLens dataset show that COLT achieves superior performance. Notably, the performance of BERT-mini (11M) with our proposed model framework outperforms BERT-large (340M), which has 30 times more parameters. Furthermore, we will release ToolLens publicly to facilitate future research on tool retrieval.

Retrieval-augmented in-context learning has emerged as a powerful approach for addressing knowledge-intensive tasks using frozen language models (LM) and retrieval models (RM). Existing work has combined these in simple "retrieve-then-read" pipelines in which the RM retrieves passages that are inserted into the LM prompt. To begin to fully realize the potential of frozen LMs and RMs, we propose Demonstrate-Search-Predict (DSP), a framework that relies on passing natural language texts in sophisticated pipelines between an LM and an RM. DSP can express high-level programs that bootstrap pipeline-aware demonstrations, search for relevant passages, and generate grounded predictions, systematically breaking down problems into small transformations that the LM and RM can handle more reliably. We have written novel DSP programs for answering questions in open-domain, multi-hop, and conversational settings, establishing in early evaluations new state-of-the-art in-context learning results and delivering 37-120%, 8-39%, and 80-290% relative gains against the vanilla LM (GPT-3.5), a standard retrieve-then-read pipeline, and a contemporaneous self-ask pipeline, respectively. We release DSP at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/dsp

The remarkable success of pretrained language models has motivated the study of what kinds of knowledge these models learn during pretraining. Reformulating tasks as fill-in-the-blanks problems (e.g., cloze tests) is a natural approach for gauging such knowledge, however, its usage is limited by the manual effort and guesswork required to write suitable prompts. To address this, we develop AutoPrompt, an automated method to create prompts for a diverse set of tasks, based on a gradient-guided search. Using AutoPrompt, we show that masked language models (MLMs) have an inherent capability to perform sentiment analysis and natural language inference without additional parameters or finetuning, sometimes achieving performance on par with recent state-of-the-art supervised models. We also show that our prompts elicit more accurate factual knowledge from MLMs than the manually created prompts on the LAMA benchmark, and that MLMs can be used as relation extractors more effectively than supervised relation extraction models. These results demonstrate that automatically generated prompts are a viable parameter-free alternative to existing probing methods, and as pretrained LMs become more sophisticated and capable, potentially a replacement for finetuning.

This paper introduces an extendable modular system that compiles a range of music feature extraction models to aid music information retrieval research. The features include musical elements like key, downbeats, and genre, as well as audio characteristics like instrument recognition, vocals/instrumental classification, and vocals gender detection. The integrated models are state-of-the-art or latest open-source. The features can be extracted as latent or post-processed labels, enabling integration into music applications such as generative music, recommendation, and playlist generation. The modular design allows easy integration of newly developed systems, making it a good benchmarking and comparison tool. This versatile toolkit supports the research community in developing innovative solutions by providing concrete musical features.

This paper explores the use of open generative Large Language Models (LLMs) for annotation tasks in the social sciences. The study highlights the challenges associated with proprietary models, such as limited reproducibility and privacy concerns, and advocates for the adoption of open (source) models that can be operated on independent devices. Two examples of annotation tasks, sentiment analysis in tweets and identification of leisure activities in childhood aspirational essays are provided. The study evaluates the performance of different prompting strategies and models (neural-chat-7b-v3-2, Starling-LM-7B-alpha, openchat_3.5, zephyr-7b-alpha and zephyr-7b-beta). The results indicate the need for careful validation and tailored prompt engineering. The study highlights the advantages of open models for data privacy and reproducibility.

Predicting highly-cited papers is a long-standing challenge due to the complex interactions of research content, scholarly communities, and temporal dynamics. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) raise the question of whether early-stage textual information can provide useful signals of long-term scientific impact. Focusing on statistical publications, we propose a flexible, text-centered framework that leverages LLMs and structured prompt design to predict highly cited papers. Specifically, we utilize information available at the time of publication, including titles, abstracts, keywords, and limited bibliographic metadata. Using a large corpus of statistical papers, we evaluate predictive performance across multiple publication periods and alternative definitions of highly cited papers. The proposed approach achieves stable and competitive performance relative to existing methods and demonstrates strong generalization over time. Textual analysis further reveals that papers predicted as highly cited concentrate on recurring topics such as causal inference and deep learning. To facilitate practical use of the proposed approach, we further develop a WeChat mini program, Stat Highly Cited Papers, which provides an accessible interface for early-stage citation impact assessment. Overall, our results provide empirical evidence that LLMs can capture meaningful early signals of long-term citation impact, while also highlighting their limitations as tools for research impact assessment.

With the advent of LLMs, various tasks across the natural language processing domain have been transformed. However, their application in predictive tasks remains less researched. This study compares large language models, including GatorTron-Base (trained on clinical data), Llama 8B, and Mistral 7B, against models like BioBERT, DocBERT, BioClinicalBERT, Word2Vec, and Doc2Vec, setting benchmarks for predicting Shock in critically ill patients. Timely prediction of shock can enable early interventions, thus improving patient outcomes. Text data from 17,294 ICU stays of patients in the MIMIC III database were scored for length of stay > 24 hours and shock index (SI) > 0.7 to yield 355 and 87 patients with normal and abnormal SI-index, respectively. Both focal and cross-entropy losses were used during finetuning to address class imbalances. Our findings indicate that while GatorTron Base achieved the highest weighted recall of 80.5%, the overall performance metrics were comparable between SLMs and LLMs. This suggests that LLMs are not inherently superior to SLMs in predicting future clinical events despite their strong performance on text-based tasks. To achieve meaningful clinical outcomes, future efforts in training LLMs should prioritize developing models capable of predicting clinical trajectories rather than focusing on simpler tasks such as named entity recognition or phenotyping.

Modern machine learning relies on datasets to develop and validate research ideas. Given the growth of publicly available data, finding the right dataset to use is increasingly difficult. Any research question imposes explicit and implicit constraints on how well a given dataset will enable researchers to answer this question, such as dataset size, modality, and domain. We operationalize the task of recommending datasets given a short natural language description of a research idea, to help people find relevant datasets for their needs. Dataset recommendation poses unique challenges as an information retrieval problem; datasets are hard to directly index for search and there are no corpora readily available for this task. To facilitate this task, we build the DataFinder Dataset which consists of a larger automatically-constructed training set (17.5K queries) and a smaller expert-annotated evaluation set (392 queries). Using this data, we compare various information retrieval algorithms on our test set and present a superior bi-encoder retriever for text-based dataset recommendation. This system, trained on the DataFinder Dataset, finds more relevant search results than existing third-party dataset search engines. To encourage progress on dataset recommendation, we release our dataset and models to the public.

Finding relevant literature underpins the practice of evidence-based medicine. From 2014 to 2016, TREC conducted a clinical decision support track, wherein participants were tasked with finding articles relevant to clinical questions posed by physicians. In total, 87 teams have participated over the past three years, generating 395 runs. During this period, each team has trialled a variety of methods. While there was significant overlap in the methods employed by different teams, the results were varied. Due to the diversity of the platforms used, the results arising from the different techniques are not directly comparable, reducing the ability to build on previous work. By using a stable platform, we have been able to compare different document and query processing techniques, allowing us to experiment with different search parameters. We have used our system to reproduce leading teams runs, and compare the results obtained. By benchmarking our indexing and search techniques, we can statistically test a variety of hypotheses, paving the way for further research.

We have built a music similarity search engine that lets video producers search by listenable music excerpts, as a complement to traditional full-text search. Our system suggests similar sounding track segments in a large music catalog by training a self-supervised convolutional neural network with triplet loss terms and musical transformations. Semi-structured user interviews demonstrate that we can successfully impress professional video producers with the quality of the search experience, and perceived similarities to query tracks averaged 7.8/10 in user testing. We believe this search tool will make for a more natural search experience that is easier to find music to soundtrack videos with.

Clickbait posts are a widespread problem in the webspace. The generation of spoilers, i.e. short texts that neutralize clickbait by providing information that satisfies the curiosity induced by it, is one of the proposed solutions to the problem. Current state-of-the-art methods are based on passage retrieval or question answering approaches and are limited to generating spoilers only in the form of a phrase or a passage. In this work, we propose an ensemble of fine-tuned large language models for clickbait spoiler generation. Our approach is not limited to phrase or passage spoilers, but is also able to generate multipart spoilers that refer to several non-consecutive parts of text. Experimental evaluation demonstrates that the proposed ensemble model outperforms the baselines in terms of BLEU, METEOR and BERTScore metrics.

In this study, we approached the Hit Song Prediction problem, which aims to predict which songs will become Billboard hits. We gathered a dataset of nearly 18500 hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four machine-learning models on our dataset. We were able to predict the Billboard success of a song with approximately 86\% accuracy. The most succesful algorithms were Random Forest and Support Vector Machine.

With the increasing numbers of publicly available models, there are probably pretrained, online models for most tasks users require. However, current model search methods are rudimentary, essentially a text-based search in the documentation, thus users cannot find the relevant models. This paper presents ProbeLog, a method for retrieving classification models that can recognize a target concept, such as "Dog", without access to model metadata or training data. Differently from previous probing methods, ProbeLog computes a descriptor for each output dimension (logit) of each model, by observing its responses on a fixed set of inputs (probes). Our method supports both logit-based retrieval ("find more logits like this") and zero-shot, text-based retrieval ("find all logits corresponding to dogs"). As probing-based representations require multiple costly feedforward passes through the model, we develop a method, based on collaborative filtering, that reduces the cost of encoding repositories by 3x. We demonstrate that ProbeLog achieves high retrieval accuracy, both in real-world and fine-grained search tasks and is scalable to full-size repositories.

Recommender Systems are built to retrieve relevant items to satisfy users' information needs. The candidate corpus usually consists of a finite set of items that are ready to be served, such as videos, products, or articles. With recent advances in Generative AI such as GPT and Diffusion models, a new form of recommendation task is yet to be explored where items are to be created by generative models with personalized prompts. Taking image generation as an example, with a single prompt from the user and access to a generative model, it is possible to generate hundreds of new images in a few minutes. How shall we attain personalization in the presence of "infinite" items? In this preliminary study, we propose a two-stage framework, namely Prompt-Model Retrieval and Generated Item Ranking, to approach this new task formulation. We release GEMRec-18K, a prompt-model interaction dataset with 18K images generated by 200 publicly-available generative models paired with a diverse set of 90 textual prompts. Our findings demonstrate the promise of generative model recommendation as a novel personalization problem and the limitations of existing evaluation metrics. We highlight future directions for the RecSys community to advance towards generative recommender systems. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/MAPS-research/GEMRec.

Text entry is an essential task in our day-to-day digital interactions. Numerous intelligent features have been developed to streamline this process, making text entry more effective, efficient, and fluid. These improvements include sentence prediction and user personalization. However, as deep learning-based language models become the norm for these advanced features, the necessity for data collection and model fine-tuning increases. These challenges can be mitigated by harnessing the in-context learning capability of large language models such as GPT-3.5. This unique feature allows the language model to acquire new skills through prompts, eliminating the need for data collection and fine-tuning. Consequently, large language models can learn various text prediction techniques. We initially showed that, for a sentence prediction task, merely prompting GPT-3.5 surpassed a GPT-2 backed system and is comparable with a fine-tuned GPT-3.5 model, with the latter two methods requiring costly data collection, fine-tuning and post-processing. However, the task of prompting large language models to specialize in specific text prediction tasks can be challenging, particularly for designers without expertise in prompt engineering. To address this, we introduce Promptor, a conversational prompt generation agent designed to engage proactively with designers. Promptor can automatically generate complex prompts tailored to meet specific needs, thus offering a solution to this challenge. We conducted a user study involving 24 participants creating prompts for three intelligent text entry tasks, half of the participants used Promptor while the other half designed prompts themselves. The results show that Promptor-designed prompts result in a 35% increase in similarity and 22% in coherence over those by designers.

The recent trend in the Large Vision and Language model has brought a new change in how information extraction systems are built. VLMs have set a new benchmark with their State-of-the-art techniques in understanding documents and building question-answering systems across various industries. They are significantly better at generating text from document images and providing accurate answers to questions. However, there are still some challenges in effectively utilizing these models to build a precise conversational system. General prompting techniques used with large language models are often not suitable for these specially designed vision language models. The output generated by such generic input prompts is ordinary and may contain information gaps when compared with the actual content of the document. To obtain more accurate and specific answers, a well-targeted prompt is required by the vision language model, along with the document image. In this paper, a technique is discussed called Target prompting, which focuses on explicitly targeting parts of document images and generating related answers from those specific regions only. The paper also covers the evaluation of response for each prompting technique using different user queries and input prompts.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 promise automation with better results and less programming, opening up new opportunities for text analysis in political science. In this study, we evaluate LLMs on three original coding tasks involving typical complexities encountered in political science settings: a non-English language, legal and political jargon, and complex labels based on abstract constructs. Along the paper, we propose a practical workflow to optimize the choice of the model and the prompt. We find that the best prompting strategy consists of providing the LLMs with a detailed codebook, as the one provided to human coders. In this setting, an LLM can be as good as or possibly better than a human annotator while being much faster, considerably cheaper, and much easier to scale to large amounts of text. We also provide a comparison of GPT and popular open-source LLMs, discussing the trade-offs in the model's choice. Our software allows LLMs to be easily used as annotators and is publicly available: https://github.com/lorelupo/pappa.

Predicting case outcomes is useful but still an extremely hard task for attorneys and other Law professionals. It is not easy to search case information to extract valuable information as this requires dealing with huge data sets and their complexity. For instance, the complexity of Brazil legal system along with the high litigation rates makes this problem even harder. This paper introduces an approach for predicting Brazilian court decisions which is also able to predict whether the decision will be unanimous. We developed a working prototype which performs 79% of accuracy (F1-score) on a data set composed of 4,043 cases from a Brazilian court. To our knowledge, this is the first study to forecast judge decisions in Brazil.

In many jurisdictions, the excessive workload of courts leads to high delays. Suitable predictive AI models can assist legal professionals in their work, and thus enhance and speed up the process. So far, Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) datasets have been released in English, French, and Chinese. We publicly release a multilingual (German, French, and Italian), diachronic (2000-2020) corpus of 85K cases from the Federal Supreme Court of Switzerland (FSCS). We evaluate state-of-the-art BERT-based methods including two variants of BERT that overcome the BERT input (text) length limitation (up to 512 tokens). Hierarchical BERT has the best performance (approx. 68-70% Macro-F1-Score in German and French). Furthermore, we study how several factors (canton of origin, year of publication, text length, legal area) affect performance. We release both the benchmark dataset and our code to accelerate future research and ensure reproducibility.

Legal professionals need to write analyses that rely on citations to relevant precedents, i.e., previous case decisions. Intelligent systems assisting legal professionals in writing such documents provide great benefits but are challenging to design. Such systems need to help locate, summarize, and reason over salient precedents in order to be useful. To enable systems for such tasks, we work with legal professionals to transform a large open-source legal corpus into a dataset supporting two important backbone tasks: information retrieval (IR) and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). This dataset CLERC (Case Law Evaluation Retrieval Corpus), is constructed for training and evaluating models on their ability to (1) find corresponding citations for a given piece of legal analysis and to (2) compile the text of these citations (as well as previous context) into a cogent analysis that supports a reasoning goal. We benchmark state-of-the-art models on CLERC, showing that current approaches still struggle: GPT-4o generates analyses with the highest ROUGE F-scores but hallucinates the most, while zero-shot IR models only achieve 48.3% recall@1000.

Machine learning classification problems are widespread in bioinformatics, but the technical knowledge required to perform model training, optimization, and inference can prevent researchers from utilizing this technology. This article presents an automated tool for machine learning classification problems to simplify the process of training models and producing results while providing informative visualizations and insights into the data. This tool supports both binary and multiclass classification problems, and it provides access to a variety of models and methods. Synthetic data can be generated within the interface to fill missing values, balance class labels, or generate entirely new datasets. It also provides support for feature evaluation and generates explainability scores to indicate which features influence the output the most. We present CLASSify, an open-source tool for simplifying the user experience of solving classification problems without the need for knowledge of machine learning.

Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings -- extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline -- serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of generating multiple responses to a single prompt, yet little effort has been expended to help end-users or system designers make use of this capability. In this paper, we explore how to present many LLM responses at once. We design five features, which include both pre-existing and novel methods for computing similarities and differences across textual documents, as well as how to render their outputs. We report on a controlled user study (n=24) and eight case studies evaluating these features and how they support users in different tasks. We find that the features support a wide variety of sensemaking tasks and even make tasks previously considered to be too difficult by our participants now tractable. Finally, we present design guidelines to inform future explorations of new LLM interfaces.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional performance in planning the use of various functional tools, such as calculators and retrievers, particularly in question-answering tasks. In this paper, we expand the definition of these tools, centering on conceptual tools within the context of dialogue systems. A conceptual tool specifies a cognitive concept that aids systematic or investigative thought. These conceptual tools play important roles in practice, such as multiple psychological or tutoring strategies being dynamically applied in a single turn to compose helpful responses. To further enhance the reasoning and planning capability of LLMs with these conceptual tools, we introduce a multi-persona collaboration framework: Think-Plan-Execute (TPE). This framework decouples the response generation process into three distinct roles: Thinker, Planner, and Executor. Specifically, the Thinker analyzes the internal status exhibited in the dialogue context, such as user emotions and preferences, to formulate a global guideline. The Planner then generates executable plans to call different conceptual tools (e.g., sources or strategies), while the Executor compiles all intermediate results into a coherent response. This structured approach not only enhances the explainability and controllability of responses but also reduces token redundancy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TPE across various dialogue response generation tasks, including multi-source (FoCus) and multi-strategy interactions (CIMA and PsyQA). This reveals its potential to handle real-world dialogue interactions that require more complicated tool learning beyond just functional tools. The full code and data will be released for reproduction.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

There are a few prominent practices for conducting reviews of academic literature, including searching for specific keywords on Google Scholar or checking citations from some initial seed paper(s). These approaches serve a critical purpose for academic literature reviews, yet there remain challenges in identifying relevant literature when similar work may utilize different terminology (e.g., mixed-initiative visual analytics papers may not use the same terminology as papers on model-steering, yet the two topics are relevant to one another). In this paper, we introduce a system, VitaLITy, intended to complement existing practices. In particular, VitaLITy promotes serendipitous discovery of relevant literature using transformer language models, allowing users to find semantically similar papers in a word embedding space given (1) a list of input paper(s) or (2) a working abstract. VitaLITy visualizes this document-level embedding space in an interactive 2-D scatterplot using dimension reduction. VitaLITy also summarizes meta information about the document corpus or search query, including keywords and co-authors, and allows users to save and export papers for use in a literature review. We present qualitative findings from an evaluation of VitaLITy, suggesting it can be a promising complementary technique for conducting academic literature reviews. Furthermore, we contribute data from 38 popular data visualization publication venues in VitaLITy, and we provide scrapers for the open-source community to continue to grow the list of supported venues.

Many court systems are overwhelmed all over the world, leading to huge backlogs of pending cases. Effective triage systems, like those in emergency rooms, could ensure proper prioritization of open cases, optimizing time and resource allocation in the court system. In this work, we introduce the Criticality Prediction dataset, a novel resource for evaluating case prioritization. Our dataset features a two-tier labeling system: (1) the binary LD-Label, identifying cases published as Leading Decisions (LD), and (2) the more granular Citation-Label, ranking cases by their citation frequency and recency, allowing for a more nuanced evaluation. Unlike existing approaches that rely on resource-intensive manual annotations, we algorithmically derive labels leading to a much larger dataset than otherwise possible. We evaluate several multilingual models, including both smaller fine-tuned models and large language models in a zero-shot setting. Our results show that the fine-tuned models consistently outperform their larger counterparts, thanks to our large training set. Our results highlight that for highly domain-specific tasks like ours, large training sets are still valuable.

This research explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) into scientific data assimilation, focusing on combustion science as a case study. Leveraging foundational models integrated with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework, the study introduces an approach to process diverse combustion research data, spanning experimental studies, simulations, and literature. The multifaceted nature of combustion research emphasizes the critical role of knowledge processing in navigating and extracting valuable information from a vast and diverse pool of sources. The developed approach minimizes computational and economic expenses while optimizing data privacy and accuracy. It incorporates prompt engineering and offline open-source LLMs, offering user autonomy in selecting base models. The study provides a thorough examination of text segmentation strategies, conducts comparative studies between LLMs, and explores various optimized prompts to demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework. By incorporating an external database, the framework outperforms a conventional LLM in generating accurate responses and constructing robust arguments. Additionally, the study delves into the investigation of optimized prompt templates for the purpose of efficient extraction of scientific literature. The research addresses concerns related to hallucinations and false research articles by introducing a custom workflow developed with a detection algorithm to filter out inaccuracies. Despite identified areas for improvement, the framework consistently delivers accurate domain-specific responses with minimal human oversight. The prompt-agnostic approach introduced holds promise for future deliberations. The study underscores the significance of integrating LLMs and knowledge processing techniques in scientific research, providing a foundation for advancements in data assimilation and utilization.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown promising abilities to generate novel research ideas in science, a direction which coincides with many foundational principles in computational creativity (CC). In light of these developments, we present an idea generation system named Spark that couples retrieval-augmented idea generation using LLMs with a reviewer model named Judge trained on 600K scientific reviews from OpenReview. Our work is both a system demonstration and intended to inspire other CC researchers to explore grounding the generation and evaluation of scientific ideas within foundational CC principles. To this end, we release the annotated dataset used to train Judge, inviting other researchers to explore the use of LLMs for idea generation and creative evaluations.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong capabilities in tool use, yet progress in tool retrieval remains hindered by incomplete and heterogeneous tool documentation. To address this challenge, we introduce Tool-DE, a new benchmark and framework that systematically enriches tool documentation with structured fields to enable more effective tool retrieval, together with two dedicated models, Tool-Embed and Tool-Rank. We design a scalable document expansion pipeline that leverages both open- and closed-source LLMs to generate, validate, and refine enriched tool profiles at low cost, producing large-scale corpora with 50k instances for embedding-based retrievers and 200k for rerankers. On top of this data, we develop two models specifically tailored for tool retrieval: Tool-Embed, a dense retriever, and Tool-Rank, an LLM-based reranker. Extensive experiments on ToolRet and Tool-DE demonstrate that document expansion substantially improves retrieval performance, with Tool-Embed and Tool-Rank achieving new state-of-the-art results on both benchmarks. We further analyze the contribution of individual fields to retrieval effectiveness, as well as the broader impact of document expansion on both training and evaluation. Overall, our findings highlight both the promise and limitations of LLM-driven document expansion, positioning Tool-DE, along with the proposed Tool-Embed and Tool-Rank, as a foundation for future research in tool retrieval.

Prompt design and engineering has become an important discipline in just the past few months. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the main concepts and design approaches. We also provide more advanced techniques all the way to those needed to design LLM-based agents. We finish by providing a list of existing tools for prompt engineering.

Autoregressive Large Language Models have transformed the landscape of Natural Language Processing. Pre-train and prompt paradigm has replaced the conventional approach of pre-training and fine-tuning for many downstream NLP tasks. This shift has been possible largely due to LLMs and innovative prompting techniques. LLMs have shown great promise for a variety of downstream tasks owing to their vast parameters and huge datasets that they are pre-trained on. However, in order to fully realize their potential, their outputs must be guided towards the desired outcomes. Prompting, in which a specific input or instruction is provided to guide the LLMs toward the intended output, has become a tool for achieving this goal. In this paper, we discuss the various prompting techniques that have been applied to fully harness the power of LLMs. We present a taxonomy of existing literature on prompting techniques and provide a concise survey based on this taxonomy. Further, we identify some open problems in the realm of prompting in autoregressive LLMs which could serve as a direction for future research.

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled users to provide highly specific music recommendation requests using natural language prompts (e.g. "Can you recommend some old classics for slow dancing?"). In this setup, the recommended tracks are predicted by the LLM in an autoregressive way, i.e. the LLM generates the track titles one token at a time. While intuitive, this approach has several limitation. First, it is based on a general purpose tokenization that is optimized for words rather than for track titles. Second, it necessitates an additional entity resolution layer that matches the track title to the actual track identifier. Third, the number of decoding steps scales linearly with the length of the track title, slowing down inference. In this paper, we propose to address the task of prompt-based music recommendation as a generative retrieval task. Within this setting, we introduce novel, effective, and efficient representations of track identifiers that significantly outperform commonly used strategies. We introduce Text2Tracks, a generative retrieval model that learns a mapping from a user's music recommendation prompt to the relevant track IDs directly. Through an offline evaluation on a dataset of playlists with language inputs, we find that (1) the strategy to create IDs for music tracks is the most important factor for the effectiveness of Text2Tracks and semantic IDs significantly outperform commonly used strategies that rely on song titles as identifiers (2) provided with the right choice of track identifiers, Text2Tracks outperforms sparse and dense retrieval solutions trained to retrieve tracks from language prompts.

We introduce a pattern mining framework that operates on semi-structured datasets and exploits the dichotomy between outcomes. Our approach takes advantage of constraint reasoning to find sequential patterns that occur frequently and exhibit desired properties. This allows the creation of novel pattern embeddings that are useful for knowledge extraction and predictive modeling. Finally, we present an application on customer intent prediction from digital clickstream data. Overall, we show that pattern embeddings play an integrator role between semi-structured data and machine learning models, improve the performance of the downstream task and retain interpretability.

In the rapidly evolving field of legal analytics, finding relevant cases and accurately predicting judicial outcomes are challenging because of the complexity of legal language, which often includes specialized terminology, complex syntax, and historical context. Moreover, the subtle distinctions between similar and precedent cases require a deep understanding of legal knowledge. Researchers often conflate these concepts, making it difficult to develop specialized techniques to effectively address these nuanced tasks. In this paper, we introduce the Law Large Language Model (LawLLM), a multi-task model specifically designed for the US legal domain to address these challenges. LawLLM excels at Similar Case Retrieval (SCR), Precedent Case Recommendation (PCR), and Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP). By clearly distinguishing between precedent and similar cases, we provide essential clarity, guiding future research in developing specialized strategies for these tasks. We propose customized data preprocessing techniques for each task that transform raw legal data into a trainable format. Furthermore, we also use techniques such as in-context learning (ICL) and advanced information retrieval methods in LawLLM. The evaluation results demonstrate that LawLLM consistently outperforms existing baselines in both zero-shot and few-shot scenarios, offering unparalleled multi-task capabilities and filling critical gaps in the legal domain.

Recent work finds that retrieval-augmented generation with large language models is prone to be influenced by the order of retrieved documents in the context. However, the lack of in-depth analysis limits the use of this phenomenon for prompt engineering in practice. In this study, we posit that likelihoods serve as an effective gauge for language model performance. Through experiments on two question-answering datasets with a variety of state-of-the-art language models, we reveal correlations between answer accuracy and the likelihood of the question at both the corpus level and the instance level. In addition, we find that question likelihood can also indicate the position of the task-relevant information in the context. Based on these findings, we propose two methods that use question likelihood as a gauge for selecting and constructing prompts that lead to better performance. We demonstrate their effectiveness with experiments. In addition, our likelihood-based methods are efficient, as they only need to compute the likelihood of the input, requiring much fewer language model passes than heuristic prompt engineering methods that require generating responses. Our analysis deepens our understanding of how input prompts affect model performance and provides a promising direction for efficient prompt optimization.

Machine learning generated content such as image artworks, textual poems and music become prominent in recent years. These tools attract much attention from the media, artists, researchers, and investors. Because these tools are data-driven, they are inherently different than the traditional creative tools which arises the question - who may own the content that is generated by these tools? In this paper we aim to address this question, we start by providing a background to this problem, raising several candidates that may own the content and arguments for each one of them. Then we propose a possible algorithmic solution in the vision-based model's regime. Finally, we discuss the broader implications of this problem.

Tools are essential for large language models (LLMs) to acquire up-to-date information and take consequential actions in external environments. Existing work on tool-augmented LLMs primarily focuses on the broad coverage of tools and the flexibility of adding new tools. However, a critical aspect that has surprisingly been understudied is simply how accurately an LLM uses tools for which it has been trained. We find that existing LLMs, including GPT-4 and open-source LLMs specifically fine-tuned for tool use, only reach a correctness rate in the range of 30% to 60%, far from reliable use in practice. We propose a biologically inspired method for tool-augmented LLMs, simulated trial and error (STE), that orchestrates three key mechanisms for successful tool use behaviors in the biological system: trial and error, imagination, and memory. Specifically, STE leverages an LLM's 'imagination' to simulate plausible scenarios for using a tool, after which the LLM interacts with the tool to learn from its execution feedback. Both short-term and long-term memory are employed to improve the depth and breadth of the exploration, respectively. Comprehensive experiments on ToolBench show that STE substantially improves tool learning for LLMs under both in-context learning and fine-tuning settings, bringing a boost of 46.7% to Mistral-Instruct-7B and enabling it to outperform GPT-4. We also show effective continual learning of tools via a simple experience replay strategy.

In the field of language modeling, models augmented with retrieval components have emerged as a promising solution to address several challenges faced in the natural language processing (NLP) field, including knowledge grounding, interpretability, and scalability. Despite the primary focus on NLP, we posit that the paradigm of retrieval-enhancement can be extended to a broader spectrum of machine learning (ML) such as computer vision, time series prediction, and computational biology. Therefore, this work introduces a formal framework of this paradigm, Retrieval-Enhanced Machine Learning (REML), by synthesizing the literature in various domains in ML with consistent notations which is missing from the current literature. Also, we found that while a number of studies employ retrieval components to augment their models, there is a lack of integration with foundational Information Retrieval (IR) research. We bridge this gap between the seminal IR research and contemporary REML studies by investigating each component that comprises the REML framework. Ultimately, the goal of this work is to equip researchers across various disciplines with a comprehensive, formally structured framework of retrieval-enhanced models, thereby fostering interdisciplinary future research.

We present an online method for estimating the cost of solving SAT problems. Modern SAT solvers present several challenges to estimate search cost including non-chronological backtracking, learning and restarts. Our method uses a linear model trained on data gathered at the start of search. We show the effectiveness of this method using random and structured problems. We demonstrate that predictions made in early restarts can be used to improve later predictions. We also show that we can use such cost estimations to select a solver from a portfolio.

Pretrained Language Models (PLM) have been greatly successful on a board range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, it has just started being applied to the domain of recommendation systems. Traditional recommendation algorithms failed to incorporate the rich textual information in e-commerce datasets, which hinderss the performance of those models. We present a thorough investigation on the effect of various strategy of incorporating PLMs into traditional recommender algorithms on one of the e-commerce datasets, and we compare the results with vanilla recommender baseline models. We show that the application of PLMs and domain specific fine-tuning lead to an increase on the predictive capability of combined models. These results accentuate the importance of utilizing textual information in the context of e-commerce, and provides insight on how to better apply PLMs alongside traditional recommender system algorithms. The code used in this paper is available on Github: https://github.com/NuofanXu/bert_retail_recommender.

Neural networks -- especially those that use large, pre-trained language models -- have improved search engines in various ways. Most prominently, they can estimate the relevance of a passage or document to a user's query. In this work, we depart from this direction by exploring whether neural networks can effectively predict which of a document's passages are unlikely to be relevant to any query submitted to the search engine. We refer to this query-agnostic estimation of passage relevance as a passage's quality. We find that our novel methods for estimating passage quality allow passage corpora to be pruned considerably while maintaining statistically equivalent effectiveness; our best methods can consistently prune >25% of passages in a corpora, across various retrieval pipelines. Such substantial pruning reduces the operating costs of neural search engines in terms of computing resources, power usage, and carbon footprint -- both when processing queries (thanks to a smaller index size) and when indexing (lightweight models can prune low-quality passages prior to the costly dense or learned sparse encoding step). This work sets the stage for developing more advanced neural "learning-what-to-index" methods.

In this work, we provide a comprehensive survey of AI music generation tools, including both research projects and commercialized applications. To conduct our analysis, we classified music generation approaches into three categories: parameter-based, text-based, and visual-based classes. Our survey highlights the diverse possibilities and functional features of these tools, which cater to a wide range of users, from regular listeners to professional musicians. We observed that each tool has its own set of advantages and limitations. As a result, we have compiled a comprehensive list of these factors that should be considered during the tool selection process. Moreover, our survey offers critical insights into the underlying mechanisms and challenges of AI music generation.

Describes an audio dataset of spoken words designed to help train and evaluate keyword spotting systems. Discusses why this task is an interesting challenge, and why it requires a specialized dataset that is different from conventional datasets used for automatic speech recognition of full sentences. Suggests a methodology for reproducible and comparable accuracy metrics for this task. Describes how the data was collected and verified, what it contains, previous versions and properties. Concludes by reporting baseline results of models trained on this dataset.

Tool learning can further broaden the usage scenarios of large language models (LLMs). However most of the existing methods either need to finetune that the model can only use tools seen in the training data, or add tool demonstrations into the prompt with lower efficiency. In this paper, we present a new Tool Learning method Chain-of-Tools. It makes full use of the powerful semantic representation capability of frozen LLMs to finish tool calling in CoT reasoning with a huge and flexible tool pool which may contain unseen tools. Especially, to validate the effectiveness of our approach in the massive unseen tool scenario, we construct a new dataset SimpleToolQuestions. We conduct experiments on two numerical reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K-XL and FuncQA) and two knowledge-based question answering benchmarks (KAMEL and SimpleToolQuestions). Experimental results show that our approach performs better than the baseline. We also identify dimensions of the model output that are critical in tool selection, enhancing the model interpretability. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/fairyshine/Chain-of-Tools .

Evaluating LLMs with a single prompt has proven unreliable, with small changes leading to significant performance differences. However, generating the prompt variations needed for a more robust multi-prompt evaluation is challenging, limiting its adoption in practice. To address this, we introduce PromptSuite, a framework that enables the automatic generation of various prompts. PromptSuite is flexible - working out of the box on a wide range of tasks and benchmarks. It follows a modular prompt design, allowing controlled perturbations to each component, and is extensible, supporting the addition of new components and perturbation types. Through a series of case studies, we show that PromptSuite provides meaningful variations to support strong evaluation practices. It is available through both a Python API: https://github.com/eliyahabba/PromptSuite, and a user-friendly web interface: https://promptsuite.streamlit.app/

We present the LM Transparency Tool (LM-TT), an open-source interactive toolkit for analyzing the internal workings of Transformer-based language models. Differently from previously existing tools that focus on isolated parts of the decision-making process, our framework is designed to make the entire prediction process transparent, and allows tracing back model behavior from the top-layer representation to very fine-grained parts of the model. Specifically, it (1) shows the important part of the whole input-to-output information flow, (2) allows attributing any changes done by a model block to individual attention heads and feed-forward neurons, (3) allows interpreting the functions of those heads or neurons. A crucial part of this pipeline is showing the importance of specific model components at each step. As a result, we are able to look at the roles of model components only in cases where they are important for a prediction. Since knowing which components should be inspected is key for analyzing large models where the number of these components is extremely high, we believe our tool will greatly support the interpretability community both in research settings and in practical applications.

With the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), many researchers are attempting to extract structured information from document-level biomedical literature by fine-tuning large language models (LLMs). However, they face significant challenges such as the need for expensive hardware, like high-performance GPUs and the high labor costs associated with annotating training datasets, especially in biomedical realm. Recent research on LLMs, such as GPT-4 and Llama3, has shown promising performance in zero-shot settings, inspiring us to explore a novel approach to achieve the same results from unannotated full documents using general LLMs with lower hardware and labor costs. Our approach combines two major stages: named entity recognition (NER) and relation extraction (RE). NER identifies chemical, disease and gene entities from the document with synonym and hypernym extraction using an LLM with a crafted prompt. RE extracts relations between entities based on predefined relation schemas and prompts. To enhance the effectiveness of prompt, we propose a five-part template structure and a scenario-based prompt design principles, along with evaluation method to systematically assess the prompts. Finally, we evaluated our approach against fine-tuning and pre-trained models on two biomedical datasets: ChemDisGene and CDR. The experimental results indicate that our proposed method can achieve comparable accuracy levels to fine-tuning and pre-trained models but with reduced human and hardware expenses.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Checklists are simple decision aids that are often used to promote safety and reliability in clinical applications. In this paper, we present a method to learn checklists for clinical decision support. We represent predictive checklists as discrete linear classifiers with binary features and unit weights. We then learn globally optimal predictive checklists from data by solving an integer programming problem. Our method allows users to customize checklists to obey complex constraints, including constraints to enforce group fairness and to binarize real-valued features at training time. In addition, it pairs models with an optimality gap that can inform model development and determine the feasibility of learning sufficiently accurate checklists on a given dataset. We pair our method with specialized techniques that speed up its ability to train a predictive checklist that performs well and has a small optimality gap. We benchmark the performance of our method on seven clinical classification problems, and demonstrate its practical benefits by training a short-form checklist for PTSD screening. Our results show that our method can fit simple predictive checklists that perform well and that can easily be customized to obey a rich class of custom constraints.

Language Models (LMs) have proven to be useful in various downstream applications, such as summarisation, translation, question answering and text classification. LMs are becoming increasingly important tools in Artificial Intelligence, because of the vast quantity of information they can store. In this work, we present ProP (Prompting as Probing), which utilizes GPT-3, a large Language Model originally proposed by OpenAI in 2020, to perform the task of Knowledge Base Construction (KBC). ProP implements a multi-step approach that combines a variety of prompting techniques to achieve this. Our results show that manual prompt curation is essential, that the LM must be encouraged to give answer sets of variable lengths, in particular including empty answer sets, that true/false questions are a useful device to increase precision on suggestions generated by the LM, that the size of the LM is a crucial factor, and that a dictionary of entity aliases improves the LM score. Our evaluation study indicates that these proposed techniques can substantially enhance the quality of the final predictions: ProP won track 2 of the LM-KBC competition, outperforming the baseline by 36.4 percentage points. Our implementation is available on https://github.com/HEmile/iswc-challenge.

Tool-augmented large language models (LLMs) are rapidly being integrated into real-world applications. Due to the lack of benchmarks, the community still needs to fully understand the hallucination issues within these models. To address this challenge, we introduce a comprehensive diagnostic benchmark, ToolBH. Specifically, we assess the LLM's hallucinations through two perspectives: depth and breadth. In terms of depth, we propose a multi-level diagnostic process, including (1) solvability detection, (2) solution planning, and (3) missing-tool analysis. For breadth, we consider three scenarios based on the characteristics of the toolset: missing necessary tools, potential tools, and limited functionality tools. Furthermore, we developed seven tasks and collected 700 evaluation samples through multiple rounds of manual annotation. The results show the significant challenges presented by the ToolBH benchmark. The current advanced models Gemini-1.5-Pro and GPT-4o only achieve a total score of 45.3 and 37.0, respectively, on a scale of 100. In this benchmark, larger model parameters do not guarantee better performance; the training data and response strategies also play a crucial role in tool-enhanced LLM scenarios. Our diagnostic analysis indicates that the primary reason for model errors lies in assessing task solvability. Additionally, open-weight models suffer from performance drops with verbose replies, whereas proprietary models excel with longer reasoning.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

This paper explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) to generate financial reports from time series data. We propose a framework encompassing prompt engineering, model selection, and evaluation. We introduce an automated highlighting system to categorize information within the generated reports, differentiating between insights derived directly from time series data, stemming from financial reasoning, and those reliant on external knowledge. This approach aids in evaluating the factual grounding and reasoning capabilities of the models. Our experiments, utilizing both data from the real stock market indices and synthetic time series, demonstrate the capability of LLMs to produce coherent and informative financial reports.

In this paper, we introduce the Chinese AI and Law challenge dataset (CAIL2018), the first large-scale Chinese legal dataset for judgment prediction. \dataset contains more than 2.6 million criminal cases published by the Supreme People's Court of China, which are several times larger than other datasets in existing works on judgment prediction. Moreover, the annotations of judgment results are more detailed and rich. It consists of applicable law articles, charges, and prison terms, which are expected to be inferred according to the fact descriptions of cases. For comparison, we implement several conventional text classification baselines for judgment prediction and experimental results show that it is still a challenge for current models to predict the judgment results of legal cases, especially on prison terms. To help the researchers make improvements on legal judgment prediction, both \dataset and baselines will be released after the CAIL competitionhttp://cail.cipsc.org.cn/.

The exponential growth of astronomical literature poses significant challenges for researchers navigating and synthesizing general insights or even domain-specific knowledge. We present Pathfinder, a machine learning framework designed to enable literature review and knowledge discovery in astronomy, focusing on semantic searching with natural language instead of syntactic searches with keywords. Utilizing state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) and a corpus of 350,000 peer-reviewed papers from the Astrophysics Data System (ADS), Pathfinder offers an innovative approach to scientific inquiry and literature exploration. Our framework couples advanced retrieval techniques with LLM-based synthesis to search astronomical literature by semantic context as a complement to currently existing methods that use keywords or citation graphs. It addresses complexities of jargon, named entities, and temporal aspects through time-based and citation-based weighting schemes. We demonstrate the tool's versatility through case studies, showcasing its application in various research scenarios. The system's performance is evaluated using custom benchmarks, including single-paper and multi-paper tasks. Beyond literature review, Pathfinder offers unique capabilities for reformatting answers in ways that are accessible to various audiences (e.g. in a different language or as simplified text), visualizing research landscapes, and tracking the impact of observatories and methodologies. This tool represents a significant advancement in applying AI to astronomical research, aiding researchers at all career stages in navigating modern astronomy literature.

This paper introduces 26 guiding principles designed to streamline the process of querying and prompting large language models. Our goal is to simplify the underlying concepts of formulating questions for various scales of large language models, examining their abilities, and enhancing user comprehension on the behaviors of different scales of large language models when feeding into different prompts. Extensive experiments are conducted on LLaMA-1/2 (7B, 13B and 70B), GPT-3.5/4 to verify the effectiveness of the proposed principles on instructions and prompts design. We hope that this work can provide a better guide for researchers working on the prompting of large language models. Project page is available at https://github.com/VILA-Lab/ATLAS.

Finding evidence for human opinion and behavior at scale is a challenging task, often requiring an understanding of sophisticated thought patterns among vast online communities found on social media. For example, studying how gun ownership is related to the perception of Freedom, requires a retrieval system that can operate at scale over social media posts, while dealing with two key challenges: (1) identifying abstract concept instances, (2) which can be instantiated differently across different communities. To address these, we introduce ConceptCarve, an evidence retrieval framework that utilizes traditional retrievers and LLMs to dynamically characterize the search space during retrieval. Our experiments show that ConceptCarve surpasses traditional retrieval systems in finding evidence within a social media community. It also produces an interpretable representation of the evidence for that community, which we use to qualitatively analyze complex thought patterns that manifest differently across the communities.

Recently, tool learning with large language models (LLMs) has emerged as a promising paradigm for augmenting the capabilities of LLMs to tackle highly complex problems. Despite growing attention and rapid advancements in this field, the existing literature remains fragmented and lacks systematic organization, posing barriers to entry for newcomers. This gap motivates us to conduct a comprehensive survey of existing works on tool learning with LLMs. In this survey, we focus on reviewing existing literature from the two primary aspects (1) why tool learning is beneficial and (2) how tool learning is implemented, enabling a comprehensive understanding of tool learning with LLMs. We first explore the "why" by reviewing both the benefits of tool integration and the inherent benefits of the tool learning paradigm from six specific aspects. In terms of "how", we systematically review the literature according to a taxonomy of four key stages in the tool learning workflow: task planning, tool selection, tool calling, and response generation. Additionally, we provide a detailed summary of existing benchmarks and evaluation methods, categorizing them according to their relevance to different stages. Finally, we discuss current challenges and outline potential future directions, aiming to inspire both researchers and industrial developers to further explore this emerging and promising area. We also maintain a GitHub repository to continually keep track of the relevant papers and resources in this rising area at https://github.com/quchangle1/LLM-Tool-Survey.

Language models have steadily increased in size over the past few years. They achieve a high level of performance on various natural language processing (NLP) tasks such as question answering and summarization. Large language models (LLMs) have been used for generation and can now output human-like text. Due to this, there are other downstream tasks in the realm of dialog that can now harness the LLMs' language understanding capabilities. Dialog evaluation is one task that this paper will explore. It concentrates on prompting with LLMs: BLOOM, OPT, GPT-3, Flan-T5, InstructDial and TNLGv2. The paper shows that the choice of datasets used for training a model contributes to how well it performs on a task as well as on how the prompt should be structured. Specifically, the more diverse and relevant the group of datasets that a model is trained on, the better dialog evaluation performs. This paper also investigates how the number of examples in the prompt and the type of example selection used affect the model's performance.

Recently pre-trained language representation models such as BERT have shown great success when fine-tuned on downstream tasks including information retrieval (IR). However, pre-training objectives tailored for ad-hoc retrieval have not been well explored. In this paper, we propose Pre-training with Representative wOrds Prediction (PROP) for ad-hoc retrieval. PROP is inspired by the classical statistical language model for IR, specifically the query likelihood model, which assumes that the query is generated as the piece of text representative of the "ideal" document. Based on this idea, we construct the representative words prediction (ROP) task for pre-training. Given an input document, we sample a pair of word sets according to the document language model, where the set with higher likelihood is deemed as more representative of the document. We then pre-train the Transformer model to predict the pairwise preference between the two word sets, jointly with the Masked Language Model (MLM) objective. By further fine-tuning on a variety of representative downstream ad-hoc retrieval tasks, PROP achieves significant improvements over baselines without pre-training or with other pre-training methods. We also show that PROP can achieve exciting performance under both the zero- and low-resource IR settings. The code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/Albert-Ma/PROP.