Daily Papers

Robust probabilistic mapping is essential for autonomous robotic systems operating in challenging environments. While traditional sensors fail in adverse conditions such as smoke and fog, millimeter wave (mmWave) radar sensors offer reliable sensing in such conditions. However, creating accurate probabilistic maps from radar data presents significant challenges due to the inherently sparse and noisy characteristics of radio wave measurements and signal processing steps. In an attempt to address these issues, we establish a complete pipeline from raw radar signals to probabilistic occupancy maps, incorporating Synthetic Aperture Radar processing followed by a probabilistic modeling step. We conduct extensive validation across indoor environments, comparing our approach against different signal processing and probabilistic modeling approaches. We also evaluate mapping quality through downstream path planning performance analysis. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of key parameters and antenna array configuration on mapping performance. The experimental results demonstrate both the effectiveness and limitations of SAR-based probabilistic mapping for real-world robotic deployment. To facilitate future research and broader adoption, we contribute an open-source cascaded mmWave radar dataset with an accompanying GPU-accelerated signal processing pipeline available at https://github.com/rpl-cmu/rpm.

Accurate 3D scene understanding is essential for embodied intelligence, with occupancy prediction emerging as a key task for reasoning about both objects and free space. Existing approaches largely rely on depth priors (e.g., DepthAnything) but make only limited use of 3D cues, restricting performance and generalization. Recently, visual geometry models such as VGGT have shown strong capability in providing rich 3D priors, but similar to monocular depth foundation models, they still operate at the level of visible surfaces rather than volumetric interiors, motivating us to explore how to more effectively leverage these increasingly powerful geometry priors for 3D occupancy prediction. We present GPOcc, a framework that leverages generalizable visual geometry priors (GPs) for monocular occupancy prediction. Our method extends surface points inward along camera rays to generate volumetric samples, which are represented as Gaussian primitives for probabilistic occupancy inference. To handle streaming input, we further design a training-free incremental update strategy that fuses per-frame Gaussians into a unified global representation. Experiments on Occ-ScanNet and EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet demonstrate significant gains: GPOcc improves mIoU by +9.99 in the monocular setting and +11.79 in the streaming setting over prior state of the art. Under the same depth prior, it achieves +6.73 mIoU while running 2.65times faster. These results highlight that GPOcc leverages geometry priors more effectively and efficiently. Code will be released at https://github.com/JuIvyy/GPOcc.

Building accurate decision-support tools for next-generation air traffic control requires robust trajectory prediction models. We present a flow-matching architecture trained exclusively on historical aircraft trajectories, with no route labels or chart supervision. Trained on 1.15 million Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast trajectory windows collected over the San Francisco Bay Area, the model generates aircraft trajectory distributions that closely match historical traffic, reproducing known airspace structure around San Francisco Airport such as the shape of SFO's published NIITE FOUR departure procedure. Our model is trained directly on the native, irregular ADS-B sampling interval. Trajectory prediction is cast as sequence inpainting using a block-causal Transformer that denoises future state tokens conditioned on the observed history using Conditional Flow Matching or Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models. We compare our architecture against constant-velocity, deterministic-Long Short Term Memory, and Conditional Variational Autoencoders baselines. At matched parameter count, CFM outperforms DDPM by 11-26% in minADE@20, and both generative objectives surpass the CVAE baseline by 31-41%. We further show that the error degrades gracefully with prediction horizon, and the architecture remains effective when retrained on temporally decimated feeds. Lastly, we sample K independent completions, yielding spatial probabilistic occupancy estimates that can serve as input to downstream conflict-risk estimation.

Video world models aim to simulate dynamic, real-world environments, yet existing methods struggle to provide unified and precise control over camera and multi-object motion, as videos inherently operate dynamics in the projected 2D image plane. To bridge this gap, we introduce VerseCrafter, a 4D-aware video world model that enables explicit and coherent control over both camera and object dynamics within a unified 4D geometric world state. Our approach is centered on a novel 4D Geometric Control representation, which encodes the world state through a static background point cloud and per-object 3D Gaussian trajectories. This representation captures not only an object's path but also its probabilistic 3D occupancy over time, offering a flexible, category-agnostic alternative to rigid bounding boxes or parametric models. These 4D controls are rendered into conditioning signals for a pretrained video diffusion model, enabling the generation of high-fidelity, view-consistent videos that precisely adhere to the specified dynamics. Unfortunately, another major challenge lies in the scarcity of large-scale training data with explicit 4D annotations. We address this by developing an automatic data engine that extracts the required 4D controls from in-the-wild videos, allowing us to train our model on a massive and diverse dataset.

Existing learning-based occupancy prediction methods rely on large-scale 3D annotations and generalize poorly across environments. We present FreeOcc, a training-free framework for open-vocabulary occupancy prediction from monocular or RGB-D sequences. Unlike prior approaches that require voxel-level supervision and ground-truth camera poses, FreeOcc operates without 3D annotations, pose ground truth, or any learning stage. FreeOcc incrementally builds a globally consistent occupancy map via a four-layer pipeline: a SLAM backbone estimates poses and sparse geometry; a geometrically consistent Gaussian update constructs dense 3D Gaussian maps; open-vocabulary semantics from off-the-shelf vision-language models are associated with Gaussian primitives; and a probabilistic Gaussian-to-occupancy projection produces dense voxel occupancy. Despite being entirely training-free and pose-agnostic, FreeOcc achieves over 2times improvements in IoU and mIoU on EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet compared to prior self-supervised methods. We further introduce ReplicaOcc, a benchmark for indoor open-vocabulary occupancy prediction, and show that FreeOcc transfers zero-shot to novel environments, substantially outperforming both supervised and self-supervised baselines. Project page: https://the-masses.github.io/freeocc-web/.

Large-scale pre-training has fundamentally changed how machine learning research is done today: large foundation models are trained once, and then can be used by anyone in the community (including those without data or compute resources to train a model from scratch) to adapt and fine-tune to specific tasks. Applying this same framework to reinforcement learning (RL) is appealing because it offers compelling avenues for addressing core challenges in RL, including sample efficiency and robustness. However, there remains a fundamental challenge to pre-train large models in the context of RL: actions have long-term dependencies, so training a foundation model that reasons across time is important. Recent advances in generative AI have provided new tools for modeling highly complex distributions. In this paper, we build a probabilistic model to predict which states an agent will visit in the temporally distant future (i.e., an occupancy measure) using flow matching. As large datasets are often constructed by many distinct users performing distinct tasks, we include in our model a latent variable capturing the user intention. This intention increases the expressivity of our model, and enables adaptation with generalized policy improvement. We call our proposed method intention-conditioned flow occupancy models (InFOM). Comparing with alternative methods for pre-training, our experiments on 36 state-based and 4 image-based benchmark tasks demonstrate that the proposed method achieves 1.8 times median improvement in returns and increases success rates by 36%. Website: https://chongyi-zheng.github.io/infom Code: https://github.com/chongyi-zheng/infom

Occupancy world models use historical occupancy states to forecast future 3D scenes, but their robustness under corrupted temporal inputs remains poorly understood. Existing evaluations primarily emphasize clean forecasting accuracy and provide limited evidence about how errors enter, persist, and propagate through the occupancy perception-forecasting chain. This paper introduces OccStress, a robustness stress-testing benchmark for the occupancy forecasting chain. OccStress contains 21 corruption families with 61 severity configurations and 10,827 strict temporal anchors across 3 datasets. OccStress covers both 3D occupancy perception and 4D occupancy forecasting through two complementary tracks. This design separates model-mediated pipeline errors under standardized sensor stressors from the intrinsic sensitivity of 4D forecasting models to corrupted occupancy states. OccStress further defines temporal injection protocols to test whether errors in the current state, recent history, or earlier history affect future forecasts differently. OccStress provides aggregate metrics for evaluating robustness along the occupancy forecasting chain. Experiments with five 4D forecasters reveal that current occupancy models are substantially affected by both upstream prediction errors and direct state corruptions, and that clean performance alone is an insufficient description of source- and position-specific robustness. Code, data, and evaluation tools are available at https://insailab.org/OccStress.

MDPs with low-rank transitions -- that is, the transition matrix can be factored into the product of two matrices, left and right -- is a highly representative structure that enables tractable learning. The left matrix enables expressive function approximation for value-based learning and has been studied extensively. In this work, we instead investigate sample-efficient learning with density features, i.e., the right matrix, which induce powerful models for state-occupancy distributions. This setting not only sheds light on leveraging unsupervised learning in RL, but also enables plug-in solutions for convex RL. In the offline setting, we propose an algorithm for off-policy estimation of occupancies that can handle non-exploratory data. Using this as a subroutine, we further devise an online algorithm that constructs exploratory data distributions in a level-by-level manner. As a central technical challenge, the additive error of occupancy estimation is incompatible with the multiplicative definition of data coverage. In the absence of strong assumptions like reachability, this incompatibility easily leads to exponential error blow-up, which we overcome via novel technical tools. Our results also readily extend to the representation learning setting, when the density features are unknown and must be learned from an exponentially large candidate set.

Vision-only occupancy prediction requires recovering a semantic 3D occupancy field from calibrated surround-view images, where each view provides observations with ambiguous depth along camera rays. Existing methods have progressed from dense structured representations to sparse Gaussian primitives, improving the efficiency of 3D scene representation. However, Gaussian learning still relies primarily on image domain features, which provide limited explicit geometric information for volumetric reasoning. Our key observation is that effective Gaussian occupancy modeling requires not only sparse primitives, but also richer geometric and semantic learning cues. In this paper, we propose VGOcc, which learns visual and geometric cues from foundation models for Gaussian modeling. VGOcc incorporates these cues into primitive initialization and refinement, yielding a representation termed Visual-Geometric Gaussians tailored to semantic occupancy prediction. Specifically, we propose Visual-Geometric Gaussian Birth to form spatially balanced Gaussian centers from ray depth hypotheses, while visual semantic features initialize primitive attributes. Next, we design Pose-Aware Feature Learning to combine foundation tokens with camera embeddings and calibrated ray information. Features from neighboring views are then aggregated at projected 3D locations for each Gaussian refinement stage. Finally, Gaussian decoder refines birth Gaussians with pose-aware features and renders them into semantic occupancy. Experiments on nuScenes demonstrate that VGOcc achieves state-of-the-art performance in vision-only 3D occupancy prediction. Codes will be available at https://github.com/JHLin42in/VGOcc.

We introduce a new family of video prediction models designed to support downstream control tasks. We call these models Video Occupancy models (VOCs). VOCs operate in a compact latent space, thus avoiding the need to make predictions about individual pixels. Unlike prior latent-space world models, VOCs directly predict the discounted distribution of future states in a single step, thus avoiding the need for multistep roll-outs. We show that both properties are beneficial when building predictive models of video for use in downstream control. Code is available at https://github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models{github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models}.

Embodied agents exploring indoor environments require reliable semantic occupancy memory that persists across observations and revisits. Building such memory is challenging because each observation provides incomplete and uncertain geometric and semantic evidence. We introduce GEM-Occ, a Gaussian Evidence Memory framework that consolidates evidence accumulated over time into persistent semantic occupancy memory. Local predictions are converted into occupied semantic Gaussians and free-space ray evidence. Confidence- and visibility-aware causal updates integrate supporting observations, suppress occupancy contradicted by observed free space, and preserve previously observed structures through occlusion. A hierarchical memory organization supports continued mapping and efficient queries across connected indoor spaces. To evaluate this capability, we introduce HIOcc, a unified benchmark for embodied semantic occupancy memory. HIOcc establishes a shared semantic label space and evaluation framework spanning local prediction, room-level online mapping, and building-level mapping, while accommodating perspective and panoramic observations. Experiments on HIOcc demonstrate that GEM-Occ outperforms existing methods, enabling accurate semantic occupancy prediction and consistent online mapping across spatial scales with efficient memory usage and fast occupancy queries.

3D occupancy prediction is important for autonomous driving due to its comprehensive perception of the surroundings. To incorporate sequential inputs, most existing methods fuse representations from previous frames to infer the current 3D occupancy. However, they fail to consider the continuity of driving scenarios and ignore the strong prior provided by the evolution of 3D scenes (e.g., only dynamic objects move). In this paper, we propose a world-model-based framework to exploit the scene evolution for perception. We reformulate 3D occupancy prediction as a 4D occupancy forecasting problem conditioned on the current sensor input. We decompose the scene evolution into three factors: 1) ego motion alignment of static scenes; 2) local movements of dynamic objects; and 3) completion of newly-observed scenes. We then employ a Gaussian world model (GaussianWorld) to explicitly exploit these priors and infer the scene evolution in the 3D Gaussian space considering the current RGB observation. We evaluate the effectiveness of our framework on the widely used nuScenes dataset. Our GaussianWorld improves the performance of the single-frame counterpart by over 2% in mIoU without introducing additional computations. Code: https://github.com/zuosc19/GaussianWorld.

Understanding the 3D geometry and semantics of driving scenes is critical for safe autonomous driving. Recent advances in 3D occupancy prediction have improved scene representation but often suffer from spatial inconsistencies, leading to floating artifacts and poor surface localization. Existing voxel-wise losses (e.g., cross-entropy) fail to enforce geometric coherence. In this paper, we propose GaussRender, a module that improves 3D occupancy learning by enforcing projective consistency. Our key idea is to project both predicted and ground-truth 3D occupancy into 2D camera views, where we apply supervision. Our method penalizes 3D configurations that produce inconsistent 2D projections, thereby enforcing a more coherent 3D structure. To achieve this efficiently, we leverage differentiable rendering with Gaussian splatting. GaussRender seamlessly integrates with existing architectures while maintaining efficiency and requiring no inference-time modifications. Extensive evaluations on multiple benchmarks (SurroundOcc-nuScenes, Occ3D-nuScenes, SSCBench-KITTI360) demonstrate that GaussRender significantly improves geometric fidelity across various 3D occupancy models (TPVFormer, SurroundOcc, Symphonies), achieving state-of-the-art results, particularly on surface-sensitive metrics. The code is open-sourced at https://github.com/valeoai/GaussRender.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

Semantic occupancy has emerged as a powerful representation in world models for its ability to capture rich spatial semantics. However, most existing occupancy world models rely on static and fixed embeddings or grids, which inherently limit the flexibility of perception. Moreover, their ``in-place classification" over grids exhibits a potential misalignment with the dynamic and continuous nature of real scenarios. In this paper, we propose SparseWorld, a novel 4D occupancy world model that is flexible, adaptive, and efficient, powered by sparse and dynamic queries. We propose a Range-Adaptive Perception module, in which learnable queries are modulated by the ego vehicle states and enriched with temporal-spatial associations to enable extended-range perception. To effectively capture the dynamics of the scene, we design a State-Conditioned Forecasting module, which replaces classification-based forecasting with regression-guided formulation, precisely aligning the dynamic queries with the continuity of the 4D environment. In addition, We specifically devise a Temporal-Aware Self-Scheduling training strategy to enable smooth and efficient training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SparseWorld achieves state-of-the-art performance across perception, forecasting, and planning tasks. Comprehensive visualizations and ablation studies further validate the advantages of SparseWorld in terms of flexibility, adaptability, and efficiency.

LiDAR-based 3D sensors provide point clouds, a canonical 3D representation used in various scene understanding tasks. Modern LiDARs face key challenges in several real-world scenarios, such as long-distance or low-albedo objects, producing sparse or erroneous point clouds. These errors, which are rooted in the noisy raw LiDAR measurements, get propagated to downstream perception models, resulting in potentially severe loss of accuracy. This is because conventional 3D processing pipelines do not retain any uncertainty information from the raw measurements when constructing point clouds. We propose Probabilistic Point Clouds (PPC), a novel 3D scene representation where each point is augmented with a probability attribute that encapsulates the measurement uncertainty (or confidence) in the raw data. We further introduce inference approaches that leverage PPC for robust 3D object detection; these methods are versatile and can be used as computationally lightweight drop-in modules in 3D inference pipelines. We demonstrate, via both simulations and real captures, that PPC-based 3D inference methods outperform several baselines using LiDAR as well as camera-LiDAR fusion models, across challenging indoor and outdoor scenarios involving small, distant, and low-albedo objects, as well as strong ambient light. Our project webpage is at https://bhavyagoyal.github.io/ppc .

We propose DOME, a diffusion-based world model that predicts future occupancy frames based on past occupancy observations. The ability of this world model to capture the evolution of the environment is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Compared to 2D video-based world models, the occupancy world model utilizes a native 3D representation, which features easily obtainable annotations and is modality-agnostic. This flexibility has the potential to facilitate the development of more advanced world models. Existing occupancy world models either suffer from detail loss due to discrete tokenization or rely on simplistic diffusion architectures, leading to inefficiencies and difficulties in predicting future occupancy with controllability. Our DOME exhibits two key features:(1) High-Fidelity and Long-Duration Generation. We adopt a spatial-temporal diffusion transformer to predict future occupancy frames based on historical context. This architecture efficiently captures spatial-temporal information, enabling high-fidelity details and the ability to generate predictions over long durations. (2)Fine-grained Controllability. We address the challenge of controllability in predictions by introducing a trajectory resampling method, which significantly enhances the model's ability to generate controlled predictions. Extensive experiments on the widely used nuScenes dataset demonstrate that our method surpasses existing baselines in both qualitative and quantitative evaluations, establishing a new state-of-the-art performance on nuScenes. Specifically, our approach surpasses the baseline by 10.5% in mIoU and 21.2% in IoU for occupancy reconstruction and by 36.0% in mIoU and 24.6% in IoU for 4D occupancy forecasting.

Embodied tasks demand accurate, flexible, and semantically rich 3D scene representations. 3D semantic occupancy is well suited to this requirement, as it can model holistic 3D spaces by encoding geometric occupancy along with semantic categories. However, existing occupancy prediction methods struggle to meet practical deployment requirements, such as adapting to varying computing budgets, sensor setups, and observation views. In this paper, we propose a point-based Adaptive 3D Occupancy Prediction method, called AdaOcc, tailored for embodied scenarios. To accommodate heterogeneous sensor inputs, AdaOcc uses an adaptive geometry-guided dual-branch encoder that can support RGB images in various numbers of views with (estimated) depth maps or LiDAR scans. AdaOcc represents occupied regions via sparse semantic points trained with a progressive query learning strategy, allowing the prediction computational budget to be flexibly adjusted through query point numbers and decoder layers. To facilitate high-fidelity geometric modeling for lightweight point-based occupancy learning, we further propose a novel containment loss that regularizes predicted points to reside within valid occupied regions. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves a new state-of-the-art on Occ-ScanNet with considerable performance improvements over previous methods. Moreover, our framework demonstrates strong practical applicability as an adaptive 3D perception module in real-world embodied systems.

Semantic occupancy perception is essential for autonomous driving, as automated vehicles require a fine-grained perception of the 3D urban structures. However, existing relevant benchmarks lack diversity in urban scenes, and they only evaluate front-view predictions. Towards a comprehensive benchmarking of surrounding perception algorithms, we propose OpenOccupancy, which is the first surrounding semantic occupancy perception benchmark. In the OpenOccupancy benchmark, we extend the large-scale nuScenes dataset with dense semantic occupancy annotations. Previous annotations rely on LiDAR points superimposition, where some occupancy labels are missed due to sparse LiDAR channels. To mitigate the problem, we introduce the Augmenting And Purifying (AAP) pipeline to ~2x densify the annotations, where ~4000 human hours are involved in the labeling process. Besides, camera-based, LiDAR-based and multi-modal baselines are established for the OpenOccupancy benchmark. Furthermore, considering the complexity of surrounding occupancy perception lies in the computational burden of high-resolution 3D predictions, we propose the Cascade Occupancy Network (CONet) to refine the coarse prediction, which relatively enhances the performance by ~30% than the baseline. We hope the OpenOccupancy benchmark will boost the development of surrounding occupancy perception algorithms.

Accurately predicting 3D occupancy grids from visual inputs is critical for autonomous driving, but current discriminative methods struggle with noisy data, incomplete observations, and the complex structures inherent in 3D scenes. In this work, we reframe 3D occupancy prediction as a generative modeling task using diffusion models, which learn the underlying data distribution and incorporate 3D scene priors. This approach enhances prediction consistency, noise robustness, and better handles the intricacies of 3D spatial structures. Our extensive experiments show that diffusion-based generative models outperform state-of-the-art discriminative approaches, delivering more realistic and accurate occupancy predictions, especially in occluded or low-visibility regions. Moreover, the improved predictions significantly benefit downstream planning tasks, highlighting the practical advantages of our method for real-world autonomous driving applications.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

Occupancy prediction aims to estimate the 3D spatial distribution of occupied regions along with their corresponding semantic labels. Existing vision-based methods perform well on daytime benchmarks but struggle in nighttime scenarios due to limited visibility and challenging lighting conditions. To address these challenges, we propose LIAR, a novel framework that learns illumination-affined representations. LIAR first introduces Selective Low-light Image Enhancement (SLLIE), which leverages the illumination priors from daytime scenes to adaptively determine whether a nighttime image is genuinely dark or sufficiently well-lit, enabling more targeted global enhancement. Building on the illumination maps generated by SLLIE, LIAR further incorporates two illumination-aware components: 2D Illumination-guided Sampling (2D-IGS) and 3D Illumination-driven Projection (3D-IDP), to respectively tackle local underexposure and overexposure. Specifically, 2D-IGS modulates feature sampling positions according to illumination maps, assigning larger offsets to darker regions and smaller ones to brighter regions, thereby alleviating feature degradation in underexposed areas. Subsequently, 3D-IDP enhances semantic understanding in overexposed regions by constructing illumination intensity fields and supplying refined residual queries to the BEV context refinement process. Extensive experiments on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of LIAR under challenging nighttime scenarios. The source code and pretrained models are available https://github.com/yanzq95/LIAR{here}.

Understanding how the surrounding environment changes is crucial for performing downstream tasks safely and reliably in autonomous driving applications. Recent occupancy estimation techniques using only camera images as input can provide dense occupancy representations of large-scale scenes based on the current observation. However, they are mostly limited to representing the current 3D space and do not consider the future state of surrounding objects along the time axis. To extend camera-only occupancy estimation into spatiotemporal prediction, we propose Cam4DOcc, a new benchmark for camera-only 4D occupancy forecasting, evaluating the surrounding scene changes in a near future. We build our benchmark based on multiple publicly available datasets, including nuScenes, nuScenes-Occupancy, and Lyft-Level5, which provides sequential occupancy states of general movable and static objects, as well as their 3D backward centripetal flow. To establish this benchmark for future research with comprehensive comparisons, we introduce four baseline types from diverse camera-based perception and prediction implementations, including a static-world occupancy model, voxelization of point cloud prediction, 2D-3D instance-based prediction, and our proposed novel end-to-end 4D occupancy forecasting network. Furthermore, the standardized evaluation protocol for preset multiple tasks is also provided to compare the performance of all the proposed baselines on present and future occupancy estimation with respect to objects of interest in autonomous driving scenarios. The dataset and our implementation of all four baselines in the proposed Cam4DOcc benchmark will be released here: https://github.com/haomo-ai/Cam4DOcc.

With the advent of deep neural networks, learning-based approaches for 3D reconstruction have gained popularity. However, unlike for images, in 3D there is no canonical representation which is both computationally and memory efficient yet allows for representing high-resolution geometry of arbitrary topology. Many of the state-of-the-art learning-based 3D reconstruction approaches can hence only represent very coarse 3D geometry or are limited to a restricted domain. In this paper, we propose Occupancy Networks, a new representation for learning-based 3D reconstruction methods. Occupancy networks implicitly represent the 3D surface as the continuous decision boundary of a deep neural network classifier. In contrast to existing approaches, our representation encodes a description of the 3D output at infinite resolution without excessive memory footprint. We validate that our representation can efficiently encode 3D structure and can be inferred from various kinds of input. Our experiments demonstrate competitive results, both qualitatively and quantitatively, for the challenging tasks of 3D reconstruction from single images, noisy point clouds and coarse discrete voxel grids. We believe that occupancy networks will become a useful tool in a wide variety of learning-based 3D tasks.

In NeRF, a critical problem is to effectively estimate the occupancy to guide empty-space skipping and point sampling. Grid-based methods work well for small-scale scenes. However, on large-scale scenes, they are limited by predefined bounding boxes, grid resolutions, and high memory usage for grid updates, and thus struggle to speed up training for large-scale, irregularly bounded and complex urban scenes without sacrificing accuracy. In this paper, we propose to learn a continuous and compact large-scale occupancy network, which can classify 3D points as occupied or unoccupied points. We train this occupancy network end-to-end together with the radiance field in a self-supervised manner by three designs. First, we propose a novel imbalanced occupancy loss to regularize the occupancy network. It makes the occupancy network effectively control the ratio of unoccupied and occupied points, motivated by the prior that most of 3D scene points are unoccupied. Second, we design an imbalanced architecture containing a large scene network and a small empty space network to separately encode occupied and unoccupied points classified by the occupancy network. This imbalanced structure can effectively model the imbalanced nature of occupied and unoccupied regions. Third, we design an explicit density loss to guide the occupancy network, making the density of unoccupied points smaller. As far as we know, we are the first to learn a continuous and compact occupancy of large-scale NeRF by a network. In our experiments, our occupancy network can quickly learn more compact, accurate and smooth occupancy compared to the occupancy grid. With our learned occupancy as guidance for empty space skipping on challenging large-scale benchmarks, our method consistently obtains higher accuracy compared to the occupancy grid, and our method can speed up state-of-the-art NeRF methods without sacrificing accuracy.

3D scene understanding plays a vital role in vision-based autonomous driving. While most existing methods focus on 3D object detection, they have difficulty describing real-world objects of arbitrary shapes and infinite classes. Towards a more comprehensive perception of a 3D scene, in this paper, we propose a SurroundOcc method to predict the 3D occupancy with multi-camera images. We first extract multi-scale features for each image and adopt spatial 2D-3D attention to lift them to the 3D volume space. Then we apply 3D convolutions to progressively upsample the volume features and impose supervision on multiple levels. To obtain dense occupancy prediction, we design a pipeline to generate dense occupancy ground truth without expansive occupancy annotations. Specifically, we fuse multi-frame LiDAR scans of dynamic objects and static scenes separately. Then we adopt Poisson Reconstruction to fill the holes and voxelize the mesh to get dense occupancy labels. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and SemanticKITTI datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/weiyithu/SurroundOcc

Recent advancements in camera-based occupancy prediction have focused on the simultaneous prediction of 3D semantics and scene flow, a task that presents significant challenges due to specific difficulties, e.g., occlusions and unbalanced dynamic environments. In this paper, we analyze these challenges and their underlying causes. To address them, we propose a novel regularization framework called VoxelSplat. This framework leverages recent developments in 3D Gaussian Splatting to enhance model performance in two key ways: (i) Enhanced Semantics Supervision through 2D Projection: During training, our method decodes sparse semantic 3D Gaussians from 3D representations and projects them onto the 2D camera view. This provides additional supervision signals in the camera-visible space, allowing 2D labels to improve the learning of 3D semantics. (ii) Scene Flow Learning: Our framework uses the predicted scene flow to model the motion of Gaussians, and is thus able to learn the scene flow of moving objects in a self-supervised manner using the labels of adjacent frames. Our method can be seamlessly integrated into various existing occupancy models, enhancing performance without increasing inference time. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of VoxelSplat in improving the accuracy of both semantic occupancy and scene flow estimation. The project page and codes are available at https://zzy816.github.io/VoxelSplat-Demo/.

We introduce GaussianOcc, a systematic method that investigates the two usages of Gaussian splatting for fully self-supervised and efficient 3D occupancy estimation in surround views. First, traditional methods for self-supervised 3D occupancy estimation still require ground truth 6D poses from sensors during training. To address this limitation, we propose Gaussian Splatting for Projection (GSP) module to provide accurate scale information for fully self-supervised training from adjacent view projection. Additionally, existing methods rely on volume rendering for final 3D voxel representation learning using 2D signals (depth maps, semantic maps), which is both time-consuming and less effective. We propose Gaussian Splatting from Voxel space (GSV) to leverage the fast rendering properties of Gaussian splatting. As a result, the proposed GaussianOcc method enables fully self-supervised (no ground truth pose) 3D occupancy estimation in competitive performance with low computational cost (2.7 times faster in training and 5 times faster in rendering). The relevant code is available in https://github.com/GANWANSHUI/GaussianOcc.git.

This article presents a family of Stochastic Cartographic Occupancy Prediction Engines (SCOPEs) that enable mobile robots to predict the future states of complex dynamic environments. They do this by accounting for the motion of the robot itself, the motion of dynamic objects, and the geometry of static objects in the scene, and they generate a range of possible future states of the environment. These prediction engines are software-optimized for real-time performance for navigation in crowded dynamic scenes, achieving up to 89 times faster inference speed and 8 times less memory usage than other state-of-the-art engines. Three simulated and real-world datasets collected by different robot models are used to demonstrate that these proposed prediction algorithms are able to achieve more accurate and robust stochastic prediction performance than other algorithms. Furthermore, a series of simulation and hardware navigation experiments demonstrate that the proposed predictive uncertainty-aware navigation framework with these stochastic prediction engines is able to improve the safe navigation performance of current state-of-the-art model- and learning-based control policies.

Probabilistic model checking is a technique for formal automated reasoning about software or hardware systems that operate in the context of uncertainty or stochasticity. It builds upon ideas and techniques from a diverse range of fields, from logic, automata and graph theory, to optimisation, numerical methods and control. In recent years, probabilistic model checking has also been extended to integrate ideas from game theory, notably using models such as stochastic games and solution concepts such as equilibria, to formally verify the interaction of multiple rational agents with distinct objectives. This provides a means to reason flexibly about agents acting in either an adversarial or a collaborative fashion, and opens up opportunities to tackle new problems within, for example, artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous systems. In this paper, we summarise some of the advances in this area, and highlight applications for which they have already been used. We discuss how the strengths of probabilistic model checking apply, or have the potential to apply, to the multi-agent setting and outline some of the key challenges required to make further progress in this field.

The field of Explainable AI (XAI) is seeking to shed light on the inner workings of complex AI models and uncover the rationale behind their decisions. One of the models gaining attention are probabilistic circuits (PCs), which are a general and unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries. Probabilistic circuits guarantee inference that is polynomial in the size of the circuit. In this paper, we improve the explainability of probabilistic circuits by computing a comprehensible, readable logical theory that covers the high-density regions generated by a PC. To achieve this, pruning approaches based on generative significance are used in a new method called PUTPUT (Probabilistic circuit Understanding Through Pruning Underlying logical Theories). The method is applied to a real world use case where music playlists are automatically generated and expressed as readable (database) queries. Evaluation shows that this approach can effectively produce a comprehensible logical theory that describes the high-density regions of a PC and outperforms state of the art methods when exploring the performance-comprehensibility trade-off.

The 3D occupancy prediction task has witnessed remarkable progress in recent years, playing a crucial role in vision-based autonomous driving systems. While traditional methods are limited to fixed semantic categories, recent approaches have moved towards predicting text-aligned features to enable open-vocabulary text queries in real-world scenes. However, there exists a trade-off in text-aligned scene modeling: sparse Gaussian representation struggles to capture small objects in the scene, while dense representation incurs significant computational overhead. To address these limitations, we present PG-Occ, an innovative Progressive Gaussian Transformer Framework that enables open-vocabulary 3D occupancy prediction. Our framework employs progressive online densification, a feed-forward strategy that gradually enhances the 3D Gaussian representation to capture fine-grained scene details. By iteratively enhancing the representation, the framework achieves increasingly precise and detailed scene understanding. Another key contribution is the introduction of an anisotropy-aware sampling strategy with spatio-temporal fusion, which adaptively assigns receptive fields to Gaussians at different scales and stages, enabling more effective feature aggregation and richer scene information capture. Through extensive evaluations, we demonstrate that PG-Occ achieves state-of-the-art performance with a relative 14.3% mIoU improvement over the previous best performing method. Code and pretrained models will be released upon publication on our project page: https://yanchi-3dv.github.io/PG-Occ

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

Most mobile robots for indoor use rely on 2D laser scanners for localization, mapping and navigation. These sensors, however, cannot detect transparent surfaces or measure the full occupancy of complex objects such as tables. Deep Neural Networks have recently been proposed to overcome this limitation by learning to estimate object occupancy. These estimates are nevertheless subject to uncertainty, making the evaluation of their confidence an important issue for these measures to be useful for autonomous navigation and mapping. In this work we approach the problem from two sides. First we discuss uncertainty estimation in deep models, proposing a solution based on a fully convolutional neural network. The proposed architecture is not restricted by the assumption that the uncertainty follows a Gaussian model, as in the case of many popular solutions for deep model uncertainty estimation, such as Monte-Carlo Dropout. We present results showing that uncertainty over obstacle distances is actually better modeled with a Laplace distribution. Then, we propose a novel approach to build maps based on Deep Neural Network uncertainty models. In particular, we present an algorithm to build a map that includes information over obstacle distance estimates while taking into account the level of uncertainty in each estimate. We show how the constructed map can be used to increase global navigation safety by planning trajectories which avoid areas of high uncertainty, enabling higher autonomy for mobile robots in indoor settings.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Human driver can easily describe the complex traffic scene by visual system. Such an ability of precise perception is essential for driver's planning. To achieve this, a geometry-aware representation that quantizes the physical 3D scene into structured grid map with semantic labels per cell, termed as 3D Occupancy, would be desirable. Compared to the form of bounding box, a key insight behind occupancy is that it could capture the fine-grained details of critical obstacles in the scene, and thereby facilitate subsequent tasks. Prior or concurrent literature mainly concentrate on a single scene completion task, where we might argue that the potential of this occupancy representation might obsess broader impact. In this paper, we propose OccNet, a multi-view vision-centric pipeline with a cascade and temporal voxel decoder to reconstruct 3D occupancy. At the core of OccNet is a general occupancy embedding to represent 3D physical world. Such a descriptor could be applied towards a wide span of driving tasks, including detection, segmentation and planning. To validate the effectiveness of this new representation and our proposed algorithm, we propose OpenOcc, the first dense high-quality 3D occupancy benchmark built on top of nuScenes. Empirical experiments show that there are evident performance gain across multiple tasks, e.g., motion planning could witness a collision rate reduction by 15%-58%, demonstrating the superiority of our method.

Camera-based 3D occupancy prediction has recently garnered increasing attention in outdoor driving scenes. However, research in indoor scenes remains relatively unexplored. The core differences in indoor scenes lie in the complexity of scene scale and the variance in object size. In this paper, we propose a novel method, named ISO, for predicting indoor scene occupancy using monocular images. ISO harnesses the advantages of a pretrained depth model to achieve accurate depth predictions. Furthermore, we introduce the Dual Feature Line of Sight Projection (D-FLoSP) module within ISO, which enhances the learning of 3D voxel features. To foster further research in this domain, we introduce Occ-ScanNet, a large-scale occupancy benchmark for indoor scenes. With a dataset size 40 times larger than the NYUv2 dataset, it facilitates future scalable research in indoor scene analysis. Experimental results on both NYUv2 and Occ-ScanNet demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. The dataset and code are made publicly at https://github.com/hongxiaoy/ISO.git.

Open-vocabulary 3D occupancy is vital for embodied agents, which need to understand complex indoor environments where semantic categories are abundant and evolve beyond fixed taxonomies. While recent work has explored open-vocabulary occupancy in outdoor driving scenarios, such methods transfer poorly indoors, where geometry is denser, layouts are more intricate, and semantics are far more fine-grained. To address these challenges, we adopt a geometry-only supervision paradigm that uses only binary occupancy labels (occupied vs free). Our framework builds upon 3D Language-Embedded Gaussians, which serve as a unified intermediate representation coupling fine-grained 3D geometry with a language-aligned semantic embedding. On the geometry side, we find that existing Gaussian-to-Occupancy operators fail to converge under such weak supervision, and we introduce an opacity-aware, Poisson-based approach that stabilizes volumetric aggregation. On the semantic side, direct alignment between rendered features and open-vocabulary segmentation features suffers from feature mixing; we therefore propose a Progressive Temperature Decay schedule that gradually sharpens opacities during splatting, strengthening Gaussian-language alignment. On Occ-ScanNet, our framework achieves 59.50 IoU and 21.05 mIoU in the open-vocabulary setting, surpassing all existing occupancy methods in IoU and outperforming prior open-vocabulary approaches by a large margin in mIoU. Code will be released at https://github.com/JuIvyy/LegoOcc.

Understanding world dynamics is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Recent methods attempt to achieve this by learning a 3D occupancy world model that forecasts future surrounding scenes based on current observation. However, 3D occupancy labels are still required to produce promising results. Considering the high annotation cost for 3D outdoor scenes, we propose a semi-supervised vision-centric 3D occupancy world model, PreWorld, to leverage the potential of 2D labels through a novel two-stage training paradigm: the self-supervised pre-training stage and the fully-supervised fine-tuning stage. Specifically, during the pre-training stage, we utilize an attribute projection head to generate different attribute fields of a scene (e.g., RGB, density, semantic), thus enabling temporal supervision from 2D labels via volume rendering techniques. Furthermore, we introduce a simple yet effective state-conditioned forecasting module to recursively forecast future occupancy and ego trajectory in a direct manner. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset validate the effectiveness and scalability of our method, and demonstrate that PreWorld achieves competitive performance across 3D occupancy prediction, 4D occupancy forecasting and motion planning tasks.

Training deep learning models for semantic occupancy prediction is challenging due to factors such as a large number of occupancy cells, severe occlusion, limited visual cues, complicated driving scenarios, etc. Recent methods often adopt transformer-based architectures given their strong capability in learning input-conditioned weights and long-range relationships. However, transformer-based networks are notorious for their quadratic computation complexity, seriously undermining their efficacy and deployment in semantic occupancy prediction. Inspired by the global modeling and linear computation complexity of the Mamba architecture, we present the first Mamba-based network for semantic occupancy prediction, termed OccMamba. Specifically, we first design the hierarchical Mamba module and local context processor to better aggregate global and local contextual information, respectively. Besides, to relieve the inherent domain gap between the linguistic and 3D domains, we present a simple yet effective 3D-to-1D reordering scheme, i.e., height-prioritized 2D Hilbert expansion. It can maximally retain the spatial structure of 3D voxels as well as facilitate the processing of Mamba blocks. Endowed with the aforementioned designs, our OccMamba is capable of directly and efficiently processing large volumes of dense scene grids, achieving state-of-the-art performance across three prevalent occupancy prediction benchmarks, including OpenOccupancy, SemanticKITTI, and SemanticPOSS. Notably, on OpenOccupancy, our OccMamba outperforms the previous state-of-the-art Co-Occ by 5.1% IoU and 4.3% mIoU, respectively. Our implementation is open-sourced and available at: https://github.com/USTCLH/OccMamba.

Intelligent agents must be generalists - showing the ability to quickly adapt and generalize to varying tasks. Within the framework of reinforcement learning (RL), model-based RL algorithms learn a task-agnostic dynamics model of the world, in principle allowing them to generalize to arbitrary rewards. However, one-step models naturally suffer from compounding errors, making them ineffective for problems with long horizons and large state spaces. In this work, we propose a novel class of models - generalized occupancy models (GOMs) - that retain the generality of model-based RL while avoiding compounding error. The key idea behind GOMs is to model the distribution of all possible long-term outcomes from a given state under the coverage of a stationary dataset, along with a policy that realizes a particular outcome from the given state. These models can then quickly be used to select the optimal action for arbitrary new tasks, without having to redo policy optimization. By directly modeling long-term outcomes, GOMs avoid compounding error while retaining generality across arbitrary reward functions. We provide a practical instantiation of GOMs using diffusion models and show its efficacy as a new class of transferable models, both theoretically and empirically across a variety of simulated robotics problems. Videos and code at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/gom/.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

The growing demand for intelligent environments unleashes an extraordinary cycle of privacy-aware applications that makes individuals' life more comfortable and safe. Examples of these applications include pedestrian tracking systems in large areas. Although the ubiquity of camera-based systems, they are not a preferable solution due to the vulnerability of leaking the privacy of pedestrians. In this paper, we introduce a novel privacy-preserving system for pedestrian tracking in smart environments using multiple distributed LiDARs of non-overlapping views. The system is designed to leverage LiDAR devices to track pedestrians in partially covered areas due to practical constraints, e.g., occlusion or cost. Therefore, the system uses the point cloud captured by different LiDARs to extract discriminative features that are used to train a metric learning model for pedestrian matching purposes. To boost the system's robustness, we leverage a probabilistic approach to model and adapt the dynamic mobility patterns of individuals and thus connect their sub-trajectories. We deployed the system in a large-scale testbed with 70 colorless LiDARs and conducted three different experiments. The evaluation result at the entrance hall confirms the system's ability to accurately track the pedestrians with a 0.98 F-measure even with zero-covered areas. This result highlights the promise of the proposed system as the next generation of privacy-preserving tracking means in smart environments.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a general and unified computational framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various inference tasks (e.g., computing marginal probabilities). Towards enabling such reasoning capabilities in complex real-world tasks, Liu et al. (2022) propose to distill knowledge (through latent variable assignments) from less tractable but more expressive deep generative models. However, it is still unclear what factors make this distillation work well. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically discover that the performance of a PC can exceed that of its teacher model. Therefore, instead of performing distillation from the most expressive deep generative model, we study what properties the teacher model and the PC should have in order to achieve good distillation performance. This leads to a generic algorithmic improvement as well as other data-type-specific ones over the existing latent variable distillation pipeline. Empirically, we outperform SoTA TPMs by a large margin on challenging image modeling benchmarks. In particular, on ImageNet32, PCs achieve 4.06 bits-per-dimension, which is only 0.34 behind variational diffusion models (Kingma et al., 2021).

Occupancy prediction provides critical geometric and semantic understanding for robotics but faces efficiency-accuracy trade-offs. Current dense methods suffer computational waste on empty voxels, while sparse query-based approaches lack robustness in diverse and complex indoor scenes. In this paper, we propose DiScene, a novel sparse query-based framework that leverages multi-level distillation to achieve efficient and robust occupancy prediction. In particular, our method incorporates two key innovations: (1) a Multi-level Consistent Knowledge Distillation strategy, which transfers hierarchical representations from large teacher models to lightweight students through coordinated alignment across four levels, including encoder-level feature alignment, query-level feature matching, prior-level spatial guidance, and anchor-level high-confidence knowledge transfer and (2) a Teacher-Guided Initialization policy, employing optimized parameter warm-up to accelerate model convergence. Validated on the Occ-Scannet benchmark, DiScene achieves 23.2 FPS without depth priors while outperforming our baseline method, OPUS, by 36.1% and even better than the depth-enhanced version, OPUS†. With depth integration, DiScene† attains new SOTA performance, surpassing EmbodiedOcc by 3.7% with 1.62times faster inference speed. Furthermore, experiments on the Occ3D-nuScenes benchmark and in-the-wild scenarios demonstrate the versatility of our approach in various environments. Code and models can be accessed at https://github.com/getterupper/DiScene.

3D occupancy prediction holds significant promise in the fields of robot perception and autonomous driving, which quantifies 3D scenes into grid cells with semantic labels. Recent works mainly utilize complete occupancy labels in 3D voxel space for supervision. However, the expensive annotation process and sometimes ambiguous labels have severely constrained the usability and scalability of 3D occupancy models. To address this, we present RenderOcc, a novel paradigm for training 3D occupancy models only using 2D labels. Specifically, we extract a NeRF-style 3D volume representation from multi-view images, and employ volume rendering techniques to establish 2D renderings, thus enabling direct 3D supervision from 2D semantics and depth labels. Additionally, we introduce an Auxiliary Ray method to tackle the issue of sparse viewpoints in autonomous driving scenarios, which leverages sequential frames to construct comprehensive 2D rendering for each object. To our best knowledge, RenderOcc is the first attempt to train multi-view 3D occupancy models only using 2D labels, reducing the dependence on costly 3D occupancy annotations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RenderOcc achieves comparable performance to models fully supervised with 3D labels, underscoring the significance of this approach in real-world applications.

This study develops a unified Point Cloud Geometry (PCG) compression method through the processing of multiscale sparse tensor-based voxelized PCG. We call this compression method SparsePCGC. The proposed SparsePCGC is a low complexity solution because it only performs the convolutions on sparsely-distributed Most-Probable Positively-Occupied Voxels (MP-POV). The multiscale representation also allows us to compress scale-wise MP-POVs by exploiting cross-scale and same-scale correlations extensively and flexibly. The overall compression efficiency highly depends on the accuracy of estimated occupancy probability for each MP-POV. Thus, we first design the Sparse Convolution-based Neural Network (SparseCNN) which stacks sparse convolutions and voxel sampling to best characterize and embed spatial correlations. We then develop the SparseCNN-based Occupancy Probability Approximation (SOPA) model to estimate the occupancy probability either in a single-stage manner only using the cross-scale correlation, or in a multi-stage manner by exploiting stage-wise correlation among same-scale neighbors. Besides, we also suggest the SparseCNN based Local Neighborhood Embedding (SLNE) to aggregate local variations as spatial priors in feature attribute to improve the SOPA. Our unified approach not only shows state-of-the-art performance in both lossless and lossy compression modes across a variety of datasets including the dense object PCGs (8iVFB, Owlii, MUVB) and sparse LiDAR PCGs (KITTI, Ford) when compared with standardized MPEG G-PCC and other prevalent learning-based schemes, but also has low complexity which is attractive to practical applications.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have demonstrated remarkable progress in generative tasks, such as image and video synthesis. However, they still often produce hallucinated samples (hallucinations) that conflict with real-world knowledge, such as generating an implausible duplicate cup floating beside another cup. Despite their prevalence, the lack of feasible methodologies for systematically quantifying such hallucinations hinders progress in addressing this challenge and obscures potential pathways for designing next-generation generative models under factual constraints. In this work, we bridge this gap by focusing on a specific form of hallucination, which we term counting hallucination, referring to the generation of an incorrect number of instances or structured objects, such as a hand image with six fingers, despite such patterns being absent from the training data. To this end, we construct a dataset suite CountHalluSet, with well-defined counting criteria, comprising ToyShape, SimObject, and RealHand. Using these datasets, we develop a standardized evaluation protocol for quantifying counting hallucinations, and systematically examine how different sampling conditions in DPMs, including solver type, ODE solver order, sampling steps, and initial noise, affect counting hallucination levels. Furthermore, we analyze their correlation with common evaluation metrics such as FID, revealing that this widely used image quality metric fails to capture counting hallucinations consistently. This work aims to take the first step toward systematically quantifying hallucinations in diffusion models and offer new insights into the investigation of hallucination phenomena in image generation.

In this paper we propose an efficient data-driven solution to self-localization within a floorplan. Floorplan data is readily available, long-term persistent and inherently robust to changes in the visual appearance. Our method does not require retraining per map and location or demand a large database of images of the area of interest. We propose a novel probabilistic model consisting of an observation and a novel temporal filtering module. Operating internally with an efficient ray-based representation, the observation module consists of a single and a multiview module to predict horizontal depth from images and fuses their results to benefit from advantages offered by either methodology. Our method operates on conventional consumer hardware and overcomes a common limitation of competing methods that often demand upright images. Our full system meets real-time requirements, while outperforming the state-of-the-art by a significant margin.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong vision-language reasoning abilities but still lack robust 3D spatial understanding, which is critical for autonomous driving. This limitation stems from two key challenges: (1) the difficulty of constructing accessible yet effective 3D representations without expensive manual annotations, and (2) the loss of fine-grained spatial details in VLMs due to the absence of large-scale 3D vision-language pretraining. To address these challenges, we propose OccVLA, a novel framework that integrates 3D occupancy representations into a unified multimodal reasoning process. Unlike prior approaches that rely on explicit 3D inputs, OccVLA treats dense 3D occupancy as both a predictive output and a supervisory signal, enabling the model to learn fine-grained spatial structures directly from 2D visual inputs. The occupancy predictions are regarded as implicit reasoning processes and can be skipped during inference without performance degradation, thereby adding no extra computational overhead. OccVLA achieves state-of-the-art results on the nuScenes benchmark for trajectory planning and demonstrates superior performance on 3D visual question-answering tasks, offering a scalable, interpretable, and fully vision-based solution for autonomous driving.

3D occupancy, an advanced perception technology for driving scenarios, represents the entire scene without distinguishing between foreground and background by quantifying the physical space into a grid map. The widely adopted projection-first deformable attention, efficient in transforming image features into 3D representations, encounters challenges in aggregating multi-view features due to sensor deployment constraints. To address this issue, we propose our learning-first view attention mechanism for effective multi-view feature aggregation. Moreover, we showcase the scalability of our view attention across diverse multi-view 3D tasks, including map construction and 3D object detection. Leveraging the proposed view attention as well as an additional multi-frame streaming temporal attention, we introduce ViewFormer, a vision-centric transformer-based framework for spatiotemporal feature aggregation. To further explore occupancy-level flow representation, we present FlowOcc3D, a benchmark built on top of existing high-quality datasets. Qualitative and quantitative analyses on this benchmark reveal the potential to represent fine-grained dynamic scenes. Extensive experiments show that our approach significantly outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods. The codes are available at https://github.com/ViewFormerOcc/ViewFormer-Occ.

3D occupancy prediction provides a comprehensive description of the surrounding scenes and has become an essential task for 3D perception. Most existing methods focus on offline perception from one or a few views and cannot be applied to embodied agents that demand to gradually perceive the scene through progressive embodied exploration. In this paper, we formulate an embodied 3D occupancy prediction task to target this practical scenario and propose a Gaussian-based EmbodiedOcc framework to accomplish it. We initialize the global scene with uniform 3D semantic Gaussians and progressively update local regions observed by the embodied agent. For each update, we extract semantic and structural features from the observed image and efficiently incorporate them via deformable cross-attention to refine the regional Gaussians. Finally, we employ Gaussian-to-voxel splatting to obtain the global 3D occupancy from the updated 3D Gaussians. Our EmbodiedOcc assumes an unknown (i.e., uniformly distributed) environment and maintains an explicit global memory of it with 3D Gaussians. It gradually gains knowledge through the local refinement of regional Gaussians, which is consistent with how humans understand new scenes through embodied exploration. We reorganize an EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet benchmark based on local annotations to facilitate the evaluation of the embodied 3D occupancy prediction task. Our EmbodiedOcc outperforms existing methods by a large margin and accomplishes the embodied occupancy prediction with high accuracy and efficiency. Code: https://github.com/YkiWu/EmbodiedOcc.

Bayesian optimization has attracted huge attention from diverse research areas in science and engineering, since it is capable of efficiently finding a global optimum of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. In general, a probabilistic regression model is widely used as a surrogate function to model an explicit distribution over function evaluations given an input to estimate and a training dataset. Beyond the probabilistic regression-based methods, density ratio estimation-based Bayesian optimization has been suggested in order to estimate a density ratio of the groups relatively close and relatively far to a global optimum. Developing this line of research further, supervised classifiers are employed to estimate a class probability for the two groups instead of a density ratio. However, the supervised classifiers used in this strategy are prone to be overconfident for known knowledge on global solution candidates. Supposing that we have access to unlabeled points, e.g., predefined fixed-size pools, we propose density ratio estimation-based Bayesian optimization with semi-supervised learning to solve this challenge. Finally, we show the empirical results of our methods and several baseline methods in two distinct scenarios with unlabeled point sampling and a fixed-size pool, and analyze the validity of our methods in diverse experiments.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

We formalize a transfinite Phi process that treats all possibility embeddings as operators on structured state spaces including complete lattices, Banach and Hilbert spaces, and orthomodular lattices. We prove a determinization lemma showing that lifting to sets or distributions yields a deterministic global dynamic, an ordinal stabilization theorem sending operator transforms to the fixed subspace by stage omega under normal spectral contraction, and a product of Riesz projections theorem for commuting layers. We establish a compositionality law for lifted maps, show closure of Phi packings, and present a quantitative application to sensory depletion that models tissue removal as a projection and derives strict decreases in the attainable fixed point under minimal monotonicity and positivity assumptions. We also state measurable conditions for probabilistic lifts, give explicit non normal and non commuting counterexamples, and provide finite dimensional and stochastic witnesses together with per theorem scope tables and a small reproducible code appendix.

Existing vision-based 3D occupancy prediction methods are inherently limited in accuracy due to their exclusive reliance on street-view imagery, neglecting the potential benefits of incorporating satellite views. We propose SA-Occ, the first Satellite-Assisted 3D occupancy prediction model, which leverages GPS & IMU to integrate historical yet readily available satellite imagery into real-time applications, effectively mitigating limitations of ego-vehicle perceptions, involving occlusions and degraded performance in distant regions. To address the core challenges of cross-view perception, we propose: 1) Dynamic-Decoupling Fusion, which resolves inconsistencies in dynamic regions caused by the temporal asynchrony between satellite and street views; 2) 3D-Proj Guidance, a module that enhances 3D feature extraction from inherently 2D satellite imagery; and 3) Uniform Sampling Alignment, which aligns the sampling density between street and satellite views. Evaluated on Occ3D-nuScenes, SA-Occ achieves state-of-the-art performance, especially among single-frame methods, with a 39.05% mIoU (a 6.97% improvement), while incurring only 6.93 ms of additional latency per frame. Our code and newly curated dataset are available at https://github.com/chenchen235/SA-Occ.

Occupancy prediction plays a pivotal role in autonomous driving. Previous methods typically construct dense 3D volumes, neglecting the inherent sparsity of the scene and suffering from high computational costs. To bridge the gap, we introduce a novel fully sparse occupancy network, termed SparseOcc. SparseOcc initially reconstructs a sparse 3D representation from camera-only inputs and subsequently predicts semantic/instance occupancy from the 3D sparse representation by sparse queries. A mask-guided sparse sampling is designed to enable sparse queries to interact with 2D features in a fully sparse manner, thereby circumventing costly dense features or global attention. Additionally, we design a thoughtful ray-based evaluation metric, namely RayIoU, to solve the inconsistency penalty along the depth axis raised in traditional voxel-level mIoU criteria. SparseOcc demonstrates its effectiveness by achieving a RayIoU of 34.0, while maintaining a real-time inference speed of 17.3 FPS, with 7 history frames inputs. By incorporating more preceding frames to 15, SparseOcc continuously improves its performance to 35.1 RayIoU without bells and whistles.

Probabilistic mental simulation is thought to play a key role in human reasoning, planning, and prediction, yet the demands of simulation in complex environments exceed realistic human capacity limits. A theory with growing evidence is that people simulate using simplified representations of the environment that abstract away from irrelevant details, but it is unclear how people determine these simplifications efficiently. Here, we present a "Just-in-Time" framework for simulation-based reasoning that demonstrates how such representations can be constructed online with minimal added computation. The model uses a tight interleaving of simulation, visual search, and representation modification, with the current simulation guiding where to look and visual search flagging objects that should be encoded for subsequent simulation. Despite only ever encoding a small subset of objects, the model makes high-utility predictions. We find strong empirical support for this account over alternative models in a grid-world planning task and a physical reasoning task across a range of behavioral measures. Together, these results offer a concrete algorithmic account of how people construct reduced representations to support efficient mental simulation.

Generating high-fidelity and controllable synthetic data is critical for advancing end-to-end autonomous driving, particularly for addressing the long tail of rare safety-critical scenarios. Existing occupancy-guided methods typically rely on shallow conditioning mechanisms and reference-frame-dependent video synthesis, which limits fine-grained controllability from arbitrary BEV layouts and restricts their applicability for scalable simulation. In this paper, we propose AnyScene, a unified occupancy-centric framework for driving scene generation. AnyScene generates semantic occupancy sequences from BEV layouts through a Spatial-Temporal Occupancy Diffusion Transformer that jointly tokenizes BEV and occupancy features in an autoregressive manner. This design enables precise controllability from cross-dataset and user-defined BEV inputs while naturally supporting long-horizon generation. Building upon the generated occupancy, a Geometry-Grounded View Expansion module treats occupancy as the canonical spatial representation and synthesizes temporally consistent multi-view driving videos in a reference-free and autoregressive fashion, supporting flexible camera configurations at inference time. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AnyScene achieves state-of-the-art performance in both occupancy and video generation. It exhibits strong generalization to unseen and customized layouts, and provides measurable benefits for downstream tasks such as sparse-view 3D reconstruction.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

The framework of reinforcement learning or optimal control provides a mathematical formalization of intelligent decision making that is powerful and broadly applicable. While the general form of the reinforcement learning problem enables effective reasoning about uncertainty, the connection between reinforcement learning and inference in probabilistic models is not immediately obvious. However, such a connection has considerable value when it comes to algorithm design: formalizing a problem as probabilistic inference in principle allows us to bring to bear a wide array of approximate inference tools, extend the model in flexible and powerful ways, and reason about compositionality and partial observability. In this article, we will discuss how a generalization of the reinforcement learning or optimal control problem, which is sometimes termed maximum entropy reinforcement learning, is equivalent to exact probabilistic inference in the case of deterministic dynamics, and variational inference in the case of stochastic dynamics. We will present a detailed derivation of this framework, overview prior work that has drawn on this and related ideas to propose new reinforcement learning and control algorithms, and describe perspectives on future research.

We introduce UniOcc, a comprehensive, unified benchmark for occupancy forecasting (i.e., predicting future occupancies based on historical information) and current-frame occupancy prediction from camera images. UniOcc unifies data from multiple real-world datasets (i.e., nuScenes, Waymo) and high-fidelity driving simulators (i.e., CARLA, OpenCOOD), which provides 2D/3D occupancy labels with per-voxel flow annotations and support for cooperative autonomous driving. In terms of evaluation, unlike existing studies that rely on suboptimal pseudo labels for evaluation, UniOcc incorporates novel metrics that do not depend on ground-truth occupancy, enabling robust assessment of additional aspects of occupancy quality. Through extensive experiments on state-of-the-art models, we demonstrate that large-scale, diverse training data and explicit flow information significantly enhance occupancy prediction and forecasting performance.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

In-context learning is commonly interpreted as a form of conditional inference, in which the prompt specifies a context and the model's output is treated as an estimate of the corresponding conditional distribution. If this interpretation holds, then LLM estimates should satisfy basic probabilistic identities. In particular, the law of total probability asserts that prior-weighted conditional distributions aggregate into population-level marginals over any valid partition of the population. In this work, we investigate to what extent LLM estimates adhere to this self-consistency principle. We use binary trees as an evaluation scaffold to recursively partition a population into increasingly fine-grained subpopulations. We then prompt LLMs with verbalized subpopulation descriptions in context, aggregate the resulting estimates back into population-level estimates, and compare them across partitions of varying granularity. Applying this protocol across problem domains and state-of-the-art frontier models, we show widespread violations of basic consistency properties. An in-depth study of persona prompting reveals a pattern we call the macro fallacy: estimates reconstructed from more fine-grained subpopulation responses are often better aligned with human reference data than direct population-level estimates. This effect persists across variations in tree structure and estimation task, and can be partially recovered through implicit prompting. Together, these findings suggest that models possess relevant subpopulation knowledge but do not reliably propagate it into aggregate estimates. This gap establishes statistical self-consistency as an unsaturated, reference-free criterion for evaluating LLMs.

Relying on in-domain annotations and precise sensor-rig priors, existing 3D occupancy prediction methods are limited in both scalability and out-of-domain generalization. While recent visual geometry foundation models exhibit strong generalization capabilities, they were mainly designed for general purposes and lack one or more key ingredients required for urban occupancy prediction, namely metric prediction, geometry completion in cluttered scenes and adaptation to urban scenarios. We address this gap and present OccAny, the first unconstrained urban 3D occupancy model capable of operating on out-of-domain uncalibrated scenes to predict and complete metric occupancy coupled with segmentation features. OccAny is versatile and can predict occupancy from sequential, monocular, or surround-view images. Our contributions are three-fold: (i) we propose the first generalized 3D occupancy framework with (ii) Segmentation Forcing that improves occupancy quality while enabling mask-level prediction, and (iii) a Novel View Rendering pipeline that infers novel-view geometry to enable test-time view augmentation for geometry completion. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OccAny outperforms all visual geometry baselines on 3D occupancy prediction task, while remaining competitive with in-domain self-supervised methods across three input settings on two established urban occupancy prediction datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/valeoai/OccAny .

Accurate uncertainty estimates are essential for deploying deep object detectors in safety-critical systems. The development and evaluation of probabilistic object detectors have been hindered by shortcomings in existing performance measures, which tend to involve arbitrary thresholds or limit the detector's choice of distributions. In this work, we propose to view object detection as a set prediction task where detectors predict the distribution over the set of objects. Using the negative log-likelihood for random finite sets, we present a proper scoring rule for evaluating and training probabilistic object detectors. The proposed method can be applied to existing probabilistic detectors, is free from thresholds, and enables fair comparison between architectures. Three different types of detectors are evaluated on the COCO dataset. Our results indicate that the training of existing detectors is optimized toward non-probabilistic metrics. We hope to encourage the development of new object detectors that can accurately estimate their own uncertainty. Code available at https://github.com/georghess/pmb-nll.

A probability forecast or probabilistic classifier is reliable or calibrated if the predicted probabilities are matched by ex post observed frequencies, as examined visually in reliability diagrams. The classical binning and counting approach to plotting reliability diagrams has been hampered by a lack of stability under unavoidable, ad hoc implementation decisions. Here we introduce the CORP approach, which generates provably statistically Consistent, Optimally binned, and Reproducible reliability diagrams in an automated way. CORP is based on non-parametric isotonic regression and implemented via the Pool-adjacent-violators (PAV) algorithm - essentially, the CORP reliability diagram shows the graph of the PAV- (re)calibrated forecast probabilities. The CORP approach allows for uncertainty quantification via either resampling techniques or asymptotic theory, furnishes a new numerical measure of miscalibration, and provides a CORP based Brier score decomposition that generalizes to any proper scoring rule. We anticipate that judicious uses of the PAV algorithm yield improved tools for diagnostics and inference for a very wide range of statistical and machine learning methods.

3D semantic occupancy prediction networks have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in reconstructing the geometric and semantic structure of 3D scenes, providing crucial information for robot navigation and autonomous driving systems. However, due to their large overhead from dense network structure designs, existing networks face challenges balancing accuracy and latency. In this paper, we introduce OccRWKV, an efficient semantic occupancy network inspired by Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV). OccRWKV separates semantics, occupancy prediction, and feature fusion into distinct branches, each incorporating Sem-RWKV and Geo-RWKV blocks. These blocks are designed to capture long-range dependencies, enabling the network to learn domain-specific representation (i.e., semantics and geometry), which enhances prediction accuracy. Leveraging the sparse nature of real-world 3D occupancy, we reduce computational overhead by projecting features into the bird's-eye view (BEV) space and propose a BEV-RWKV block for efficient feature enhancement and fusion. This enables real-time inference at 22.2 FPS without compromising performance. Experiments demonstrate that OccRWKV outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on the SemanticKITTI dataset, achieving a mIoU of 25.1 while being 20 times faster than the best baseline, Co-Occ, making it suitable for real-time deployment on robots to enhance autonomous navigation efficiency. Code and video are available on our project page: https://jmwang0117.github.io/OccRWKV/.

LLM agents that operate over long context depend on external memory to accumulate knowledge over time. However, existing methods typically store each observation as a single deterministic conclusion (e.g., inferring "API~X failed" from temporary errors), even though such observations are inherently partial and potentially ambiguous. By committing to one conclusion and discarding uncertainty, these methods introduce self-reinforcing error: the agent acts on the stored conclusion, never revisits alternatives, and reinforces the conclusion over time. To address this issue, we propose BeliefMem, which shifts the memory paradigm from committing to a single conclusion per observation to retaining multiple candidate conclusions with their probabilities. Concretely, BeliefMem stores the candidate conclusions as separate memory entries, each carrying a probability that is updated via Noisy-OR rules as new observations arrive. At retrieval, all candidates surface together with their probabilities, keeping alternatives visible to the agent. Since each conclusion in memory retains its probability, BeliefMem preserves the uncertainty that the deterministic paradigm discards, enabling the agent to act with high confidence on well-evidenced knowledge while retaining the capacity to update its confidence when new evidence arrives. Empirical evaluations on LoCoMo and ALFWorld benchmarks show that, even with limited data, BeliefMem achieves the best average performance, remarkably outperforming well-known baselines. More broadly, such probabilistic memory produces substantial gains and explores a new direction for agent memory in partially observable environments.

Understanding the world and explaining it with scientific theories is a central aspiration of artificial intelligence research. Proposing theories, designing experiments to test them, and then revising them based on data are fundamental to scientific discovery. Despite the significant promise of LLM-based scientific agents, no benchmarks systematically test LLM's ability to propose scientific models, collect experimental data, and revise them in light of new data. We introduce BoxingGym, a benchmark with 10 environments for systematically evaluating both experimental design (e.g. collecting data to test a scientific theory) and model discovery (e.g. proposing and revising scientific theories). To enable tractable and quantitative evaluation, we implement each environment as a generative probabilistic model with which a scientific agent can run interactive experiments. These probabilistic models are drawn from various real-world scientific domains ranging from psychology to ecology. To quantitatively evaluate a scientific agent's ability to collect informative experimental data, we compute the expected information gain (EIG), an information-theoretic quantity which measures how much an experiment reduces uncertainty about the parameters of a generative model. A good scientific theory is a concise and predictive explanation. Therefore, to quantitatively evaluate model discovery, we ask a scientific agent to explain their model and then assess whether this explanation enables another scientific agent to make reliable predictions about this environment. In addition to this explanation-based evaluation, we compute standard model evaluation metrics such as prediction errors. We find that current LLMs, such as GPT-4o, struggle with both experimental design and model discovery. We find that augmenting the LLM-based agent with an explicit statistical model does not reliably improve these results.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries (e.g., marginal probabilities). One key challenge is to scale PCs to model large and high-dimensional real-world datasets: we observe that as the number of parameters in PCs increases, their performance immediately plateaus. This phenomenon suggests that the existing optimizers fail to exploit the full expressive power of large PCs. We propose to overcome such bottleneck by latent variable distillation: we leverage the less tractable but more expressive deep generative models to provide extra supervision over the latent variables of PCs. Specifically, we extract information from Transformer-based generative models to assign values to latent variables of PCs, providing guidance to PC optimizers. Experiments on both image and language modeling benchmarks (e.g., ImageNet and WikiText-2) show that latent variable distillation substantially boosts the performance of large PCs compared to their counterparts without latent variable distillation. In particular, on the image modeling benchmarks, PCs achieve competitive performance against some of the widely-used deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and flow-based models, opening up new avenues for tractable generative modeling.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

Long-term object search requires learning where objects usually appear from repeated but uneven observations of a changing environment. We formulate retrospective open-vocabulary memory as probabilistic inference from censored observations, where the key idea is to reason with evidence per opportunity: a detection or non-detection should influence belief only in proportion to the robot's opportunity to observe the corresponding location. We introduce ECROM, which uses this principle to estimate long-term prevalence for concepts specified only at query time and converts the resulting belief directly into an active-search prior. To evaluate this problem, we introduce a controlled long-term benchmark in ten HM3D homes that independently varies object placement and observation opportunity across repeated traversals. ECROM improves support-level AP on held-out queries by 4.5 points and search SPL by 4.2 points over the strongest competing memory in each metric. The benchmark, dataset, and code will be open-sourced. Project page: https://jiaming.im/ecrom/

3D semantic occupancy prediction has become a crucial perception task for comprehensive scene understanding in autonomous driving. While recent advances have explored 3D Gaussian splatting for occupancy modeling to substantially reduce computational overhead, the generation of high-quality 3D Gaussians relies heavily on accurate geometric cues, which are often insufficient in purely vision-centric paradigms. To bridge this gap, we advocate for injecting the strong geometric grounding capability from Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) into occupancy prediction. In this regard, we introduce Visual Geometry Grounded Gaussian Splatting (VG3S), a novel framework that empowers Gaussian-based occupancy prediction with cross-view 3D geometric grounding. Specifically, to fully exploit the rich 3D geometric priors from a frozen VFM, we propose a plug-and-play hierarchical geometric feature adapter, which can effectively transform generic VFM tokens via feature aggregation, task-specific alignment, and multi-scale restructuring. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes occupancy benchmark demonstrate that VG3S achieves remarkable improvements of 12.6% in IoU and 7.5% in mIoU over the baseline. Furthermore, we show that VG3S generalizes seamlessly across diverse VFMs, consistently enhancing occupancy prediction accuracy and firmly underscoring the immense value of integrating priors derived from powerful, pre-trained geometry-grounded VFMs.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are the current state-of-the-art meta-algorithm for volumetric segmentation of medical data, for example, to localize COVID-19 infected tissue on computer tomography scans or the detection of tumour volumes in magnetic resonance imaging. A key limitation of 3D CNNs on voxelised data is that the memory consumption grows cubically with the training data resolution. Occupancy networks (O-Nets) are an alternative for which the data is represented continuously in a function space and 3D shapes are learned as a continuous decision boundary. While O-Nets are significantly more memory efficient than 3D CNNs, they are limited to simple shapes, are relatively slow at inference, and have not yet been adapted for 3D semantic segmentation of medical data. Here, we propose Occupancy Networks for Semantic Segmentation (OSS-Nets) to accurately and memory-efficiently segment 3D medical data. We build upon the original O-Net with modifications for increased expressiveness leading to improved segmentation performance comparable to 3D CNNs, as well as modifications for faster inference. We leverage local observations to represent complex shapes and prior encoder predictions to expedite inference. We showcase OSS-Net's performance on 3D brain tumour and liver segmentation against a function space baseline (O-Net), a performance baseline (3D residual U-Net), and an efficiency baseline (2D residual U-Net). OSS-Net yields segmentation results similar to the performance baseline and superior to the function space and efficiency baselines. In terms of memory efficiency, OSS-Net consumes comparable amounts of memory as the function space baseline, somewhat more memory than the efficiency baseline and significantly less than the performance baseline. As such, OSS-Net enables memory-efficient and accurate 3D semantic segmentation that can scale to high resolutions.

The task of vision-based 3D occupancy prediction aims to reconstruct 3D geometry and estimate its semantic classes from 2D color images, where the 2D-to-3D view transformation is an indispensable step. Most previous methods conduct forward projection, such as BEVPooling and VoxelPooling, both of which map the 2D image features into 3D grids. However, the current grid representing features within a certain height range usually introduces many confusing features that belong to other height ranges. To address this challenge, we present Deep Height Decoupling (DHD), a novel framework that incorporates explicit height prior to filter out the confusing features. Specifically, DHD first predicts height maps via explicit supervision. Based on the height distribution statistics, DHD designs Mask Guided Height Sampling (MGHS) to adaptively decouple the height map into multiple binary masks. MGHS projects the 2D image features into multiple subspaces, where each grid contains features within reasonable height ranges. Finally, a Synergistic Feature Aggregation (SFA) module is deployed to enhance the feature representation through channel and spatial affinities, enabling further occupancy refinement. On the popular Occ3D-nuScenes benchmark, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance even with minimal input frames. Source code is released at https://github.com/yanzq95/DHD.

We present a probabilistic model for point cloud generation, which is fundamental for various 3D vision tasks such as shape completion, upsampling, synthesis and data augmentation. Inspired by the diffusion process in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, we view points in point clouds as particles in a thermodynamic system in contact with a heat bath, which diffuse from the original distribution to a noise distribution. Point cloud generation thus amounts to learning the reverse diffusion process that transforms the noise distribution to the distribution of a desired shape. Specifically, we propose to model the reverse diffusion process for point clouds as a Markov chain conditioned on certain shape latent. We derive the variational bound in closed form for training and provide implementations of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves competitive performance in point cloud generation and auto-encoding. The code is available at https://github.com/luost26/diffusion-point-cloud.

Occupancy Grid Maps are widely used in navigation for their ability to represent 3D space occupancy. However, existing methods that utilize multi-view cameras to construct Occupancy Networks for perception modeling suffer from cubic growth in data complexity. Adopting a Bird's-Eye View (BEV) perspective offers a more practical solution for autonomous driving, as it provides higher semantic density and mitigates complex object occlusions. Nonetheless, BEV-based approaches still require extensive engineering optimizations to enable efficient large-scale global modeling. To address this challenge, we propose InstanceBEV, the first method to introduce instance-level dimensionality reduction for BEV, enabling global modeling with transformers without relying on sparsification or acceleration operators. Different from other BEV methods, our approach directly employs transformers to aggregate global features. Compared to 3D object detection models, our method samples global feature maps into 3D space. Experiments on OpenOcc-NuScenes dataset show that InstanceBEV achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining a simple, efficient framework without requiring additional optimizations.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

Recent advances in probabilistic modelling have led to a large number of simulation-based inference algorithms which do not require numerical evaluation of likelihoods. However, a public benchmark with appropriate performance metrics for such 'likelihood-free' algorithms has been lacking. This has made it difficult to compare algorithms and identify their strengths and weaknesses. We set out to fill this gap: We provide a benchmark with inference tasks and suitable performance metrics, with an initial selection of algorithms including recent approaches employing neural networks and classical Approximate Bayesian Computation methods. We found that the choice of performance metric is critical, that even state-of-the-art algorithms have substantial room for improvement, and that sequential estimation improves sample efficiency. Neural network-based approaches generally exhibit better performance, but there is no uniformly best algorithm. We provide practical advice and highlight the potential of the benchmark to diagnose problems and improve algorithms. The results can be explored interactively on a companion website. All code is open source, making it possible to contribute further benchmark tasks and inference algorithms.

Collaborative perception in automated vehicles leverages the exchange of information between agents, aiming to elevate perception results. Previous camera-based collaborative 3D perception methods typically employ 3D bounding boxes or bird's eye views as representations of the environment. However, these approaches fall short in offering a comprehensive 3D environmental prediction. To bridge this gap, we introduce the first method for collaborative 3D semantic occupancy prediction. Particularly, it improves local 3D semantic occupancy predictions by hybrid fusion of (i) semantic and occupancy task features, and (ii) compressed orthogonal attention features shared between vehicles. Additionally, due to the lack of a collaborative perception dataset designed for semantic occupancy prediction, we augment a current collaborative perception dataset to include 3D collaborative semantic occupancy labels for a more robust evaluation. The experimental findings highlight that: (i) our collaborative semantic occupancy predictions excel above the results from single vehicles by over 30%, and (ii) models anchored on semantic occupancy outpace state-of-the-art collaborative 3D detection techniques in subsequent perception applications, showcasing enhanced accuracy and enriched semantic-awareness in road environments.

Given the capability of mitigating the long-tail deficiencies and intricate-shaped absence prevalent in 3D object detection, occupancy prediction has become a pivotal component in autonomous driving systems. However, the procession of three-dimensional voxel-level representations inevitably introduces large overhead in both memory and computation, obstructing the deployment of to-date occupancy prediction approaches. In contrast to the trend of making the model larger and more complicated, we argue that a desirable framework should be deployment-friendly to diverse chips while maintaining high precision. To this end, we propose a plug-and-play paradigm, namely FlashOCC, to consolidate rapid and memory-efficient occupancy prediction while maintaining high precision. Particularly, our FlashOCC makes two improvements based on the contemporary voxel-level occupancy prediction approaches. Firstly, the features are kept in the BEV, enabling the employment of efficient 2D convolutional layers for feature extraction. Secondly, a channel-to-height transformation is introduced to lift the output logits from the BEV into the 3D space. We apply the FlashOCC to diverse occupancy prediction baselines on the challenging Occ3D-nuScenes benchmarks and conduct extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness. The results substantiate the superiority of our plug-and-play paradigm over previous state-of-the-art methods in terms of precision, runtime efficiency, and memory costs, demonstrating its potential for deployment. The code will be made available.

3D semantic occupancy prediction is an emerging perception paradigm in autonomous driving, providing a voxel-level representation of both geometric details and semantic categories. However, its effectiveness is inherently constrained in single-vehicle setups by occlusions, restricted sensor range, and narrow viewpoints. To address these limitations, collaborative perception enables the exchange of complementary information, thereby enhancing the completeness and accuracy of predictions. Despite its potential, research on collaborative 3D semantic occupancy prediction is hindered by the lack of dedicated datasets. To bridge this gap, we design a high-resolution semantic voxel sensor in CARLA to produce dense and comprehensive annotations. We further develop a baseline model that performs inter-agent feature fusion via spatial alignment and attention aggregation. In addition, we establish benchmarks with varying prediction ranges designed to systematically assess the impact of spatial extent on collaborative prediction. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our baseline, with increasing gains observed as range expands. Our code is available at https://github.com/tlab-wide/Co3SOP}{https://github.com/tlab-wide/Co3SOP.

Pixel-goal navigation specifies targets directly in the agent's camera view, but a target pixel provides neither metric depth nor traversability, making 3D goal grounding and collision-free continuous planning challenging. We present OccPlanner, a goal-aware occupancy-conditioned diffusion planner that grounds pixel goals in egocentric metric space and sequentially conditions the goal representation on temporal visual context and learned local 3D occupancy features. To provide occupancy supervision at scale, we introduce L3ROcc, which converts monocular RGB navigation videos into robot-centric local 3D occupancy annotations through geometric reconstruction and ray-based visibility reasoning. We train OccPlanner on InternData-N1 and evaluate it in closed-loop simulation across four unseen scene categories from InternScenes and two goal-distance ranges. In the 5-8 m setting, OccPlanner increases the average success rate (SR) over NavDP from 20.81% to 71.55% across the four categories, reaching 86.20% and 84.92% in cluttered-easy and cluttered-hard scenes, respectively. Real-world open-loop experiments on a Unitree Go2 further provide initial evidence of sim-to-real transfer and adaptation with L3ROcc-generated supervision.

3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction is fundamental for spatial understanding as it provides a comprehensive semantic cognition of surrounding environments. However, prevalent approaches primarily rely on extensive labeled data and computationally intensive voxel-based modeling, restricting the scalability and generalizability of 3D representation learning. In this paper, we introduce GaussTR, a novel Gaussian Transformer that leverages alignment with foundation models to advance self-supervised 3D spatial understanding. GaussTR adopts a Transformer architecture to predict sparse sets of 3D Gaussians that represent scenes in a feed-forward manner. Through aligning rendered Gaussian features with diverse knowledge from pre-trained foundation models, GaussTR facilitates the learning of versatile 3D representations and enables open-vocabulary occupancy prediction without explicit annotations. Empirical evaluations on the Occ3D-nuScenes dataset showcase GaussTR's state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, achieving 11.70 mIoU while reducing training duration by approximately 50%. These experimental results highlight the significant potential of GaussTR for scalable and holistic 3D spatial understanding, with promising implications for autonomous driving and embodied agents. Code is available at https://github.com/hustvl/GaussTR.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

Human reasoning often involves working over limited information to arrive at probabilistic conclusions. In its simplest form, this involves making an inference that is not strictly entailed by a premise, but rather only likely given the premise. While reasoning LLMs have demonstrated strong performance on logical and mathematical tasks, their behavior on such open-ended, non-deterministic inferences remains largely unexplored. We introduce ProbCOPA, a dataset of 210 handcrafted probabilistic inferences in English, each annotated for inference likelihood by 25--30 human participants. We find that human responses are graded and varied, revealing probabilistic judgments of the inferences in our dataset. Comparing these judgments with responses from eight state-of-the-art reasoning LLMs, we show that models consistently fail to produce human-like distributions. Finally, analyzing LLM reasoning chains, we find evidence of a common reasoning pattern used to evaluate such inferences. Our findings reveal persistent differences between humans and LLMs, and underscore the need to evaluate reasoning beyond deterministic settings.

In this paper, we introduce ProtoOcc, a novel 3D occupancy prediction model designed to predict the occupancy states and semantic classes of 3D voxels through a deep semantic understanding of scenes. ProtoOcc consists of two main components: the Dual Branch Encoder (DBE) and the Prototype Query Decoder (PQD). The DBE produces a new 3D voxel representation by combining 3D voxel and BEV representations across multiple scales through a dual branch structure. This design enhances both performance and computational efficiency by providing a large receptive field for the BEV representation while maintaining a smaller receptive field for the voxel representation. The PQD introduces Prototype Queries to accelerate the decoding process. Scene-Adaptive Prototypes are derived from the 3D voxel features of input sample, while Scene-Agnostic Prototypes are computed by applying Scene-Adaptive Prototypes to an Exponential Moving Average during the training phase. By using these prototype-based queries for decoding, we can directly predict 3D occupancy in a single step, eliminating the need for iterative Transformer decoding. Additionally, we propose the Robust Prototype Learning, which injects noise into prototype generation process and trains the model to denoise during the training phase. ProtoOcc achieves state-of-the-art performance with 45.02% mIoU on the Occ3D-nuScenes benchmark. For single-frame method, it reaches 39.56% mIoU with an inference speed of 12.83 FPS on an NVIDIA RTX 3090. Our code can be found at https://github.com/SPA-junghokim/ProtoOcc.

We extend the simply-typed guarded lambda-calculus with discrete probabilities and endow it with a program logic for reasoning about relational properties of guarded probabilistic computations. This provides a framework for programming and reasoning about infinite stochastic processes like Markov chains. We demonstrate the logic sound by interpreting its judgements in the topos of trees and by using probabilistic couplings for the semantics of relational assertions over distributions on discrete types. The program logic is designed to support syntax-directed proofs in the style of relational refinement types, but retains the expressiveness of higher-order logic extended with discrete distributions, and the ability to reason relationally about expressions that have different types or syntactic structure. In addition, our proof system leverages a well-known theorem from the coupling literature to justify better proof rules for relational reasoning about probabilistic expressions. We illustrate these benefits with a broad range of examples that were beyond the scope of previous systems, including shift couplings and lump couplings between random walks.

Online 3D occupancy prediction provides a comprehensive spatial understanding of embodied environments. While the innovative EmbodiedOcc framework utilizes 3D semantic Gaussians for progressive indoor occupancy prediction, it overlooks the geometric characteristics of indoor environments, which are primarily characterized by planar structures. This paper introduces EmbodiedOcc++, enhancing the original framework with two key innovations: a Geometry-guided Refinement Module (GRM) that constrains Gaussian updates through plane regularization, along with a Semantic-aware Uncertainty Sampler (SUS) that enables more effective updates in overlapping regions between consecutive frames. GRM regularizes the position update to align with surface normals. It determines the adaptive regularization weight using curvature-based and depth-based constraints, allowing semantic Gaussians to align accurately with planar surfaces while adapting in complex regions. To effectively improve geometric consistency from different views, SUS adaptively selects proper Gaussians to update. Comprehensive experiments on the EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet benchmark demonstrate that EmbodiedOcc++ achieves state-of-the-art performance across different settings. Our method demonstrates improved edge accuracy and retains more geometric details while ensuring computational efficiency, which is essential for online embodied perception. The code will be released at: https://github.com/PKUHaoWang/EmbodiedOcc2.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Understanding 3D scenes semantically and spatially is crucial for the safe navigation of robots and autonomous vehicles, aiding obstacle avoidance and accurate trajectory planning. Camera-based 3D semantic occupancy prediction, which infers complete voxel grids from 2D images, is gaining importance in robot vision for its resource efficiency compared to 3D sensors. However, this task inherently suffers from a 2D-3D discrepancy, where objects of the same size in 3D space appear at different scales in a 2D image depending on their distance from the camera due to perspective projection. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel framework called VPOcc that leverages a vanishing point (VP) to mitigate the 2D-3D discrepancy at both the pixel and feature levels. As a pixel-level solution, we introduce a VPZoomer module, which warps images by counteracting the perspective effect using a VP-based homography transformation. In addition, as a feature-level solution, we propose a VP-guided cross-attention (VPCA) module that performs perspective-aware feature aggregation, utilizing 2D image features that are more suitable for 3D space. Lastly, we integrate two feature volumes extracted from the original and warped images to compensate for each other through a spatial volume fusion (SVF) module. By effectively incorporating VP into the network, our framework achieves improvements in both IoU and mIoU metrics on SemanticKITTI and SSCBench-KITTI360 datasets. Additional details are available at https://vision3d-lab.github.io/vpocc/.

Open World Object Detection (OWOD) is a new and challenging computer vision task that bridges the gap between classic object detection (OD) benchmarks and object detection in the real world. In addition to detecting and classifying seen/labeled objects, OWOD algorithms are expected to detect novel/unknown objects - which can be classified and incrementally learned. In standard OD, object proposals not overlapping with a labeled object are automatically classified as background. Therefore, simply applying OD methods to OWOD fails as unknown objects would be predicted as background. The challenge of detecting unknown objects stems from the lack of supervision in distinguishing unknown objects and background object proposals. Previous OWOD methods have attempted to overcome this issue by generating supervision using pseudo-labeling - however, unknown object detection has remained low. Probabilistic/generative models may provide a solution for this challenge. Herein, we introduce a novel probabilistic framework for objectness estimation, where we alternate between probability distribution estimation and objectness likelihood maximization of known objects in the embedded feature space - ultimately allowing us to estimate the objectness probability of different proposals. The resulting Probabilistic Objectness transformer-based open-world detector, PROB, integrates our framework into traditional object detection models, adapting them for the open-world setting. Comprehensive experiments on OWOD benchmarks show that PROB outperforms all existing OWOD methods in both unknown object detection (sim 2times unknown recall) and known object detection (sim 10% mAP). Our code will be made available upon publication at https://github.com/orrzohar/PROB.

We introduce Minary, a computational framework designed as a candidate for the first formally provable autopoietic primitive. Minary represents interacting probabilistic events as multi-dimensional vectors and combines them via linear superposition rather than multiplicative scalar operations, thereby preserving uncertainty and enabling constructive and destructive interference in the range [-1,1]. A fixed set of ``perspectives'' evaluates ``semantic dimensions'' according to hidden competencies, and their interactions drive two discrete-time stochastic processes. We model this system as an iterated random affine map and use the theory of iterated random functions to prove that it converges in distribution to a unique stationary law; we moreover obtain an explicit closed form for the limiting expectation in terms of row, column, and global averages of the competency matrix. We then derive exact formulas for the mean and variance of the normalized consensus conditioned on the activation of a given semantic dimension, revealing how consensus depends on competency structure rather than raw input signals. Finally, we argue that Minary is organizationally closed yet operationally open in the sense of Maturana and Varela, and we discuss implications for building self-maintaining, distributed, and parallelizable computational systems that house a uniquely subjective notion of identity.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes our probabilistic type theory from quantum type theory, namely the bijective correspondence between predicates and side-effect free actions (called instrument, or assert, maps). The paper shows how suitable computation rules can be derived from this predicate-action correspondence, and uses these rules for calculating conditional probabilities in two well-known examples of Bayesian reasoning in (graphical) models. Our type theory may thus form the basis for a mechanisation of Bayesian inference.

The irregularity and permutation invariance of point cloud data pose challenges for effective learning. Conventional methods for addressing this issue involve converting raw point clouds to intermediate representations such as 3D voxel grids or range images. While such intermediate representations solve the problem of permutation invariance, they can result in significant loss of information. Approaches that do learn on raw point clouds either have trouble in resolving neighborhood relationships between points or are too complicated in their formulation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to representing point clouds as a locality preserving 1D ordering induced by the Hilbert space-filling curve. We also introduce Point2Point, a neural architecture that can effectively learn on Hilbert-sorted point clouds. We show that Point2Point shows competitive performance on point cloud segmentation and generation tasks. Finally, we show the performance of Point2Point on Spatio-temporal Occupancy prediction from Point clouds.

Vision-centric occupancy networks, which represent the surrounding environment with uniform voxels with semantics, have become a new trend for safe driving of camera-only autonomous driving perception systems, as they are able to detect obstacles regardless of their shape and occlusion. Modern occupancy networks mainly focus on reconstructing visible voxels from object surfaces with voxel-wise semantic prediction. Usually, they suffer from inconsistent predictions of one object and mixed predictions for adjacent objects. These confusions may harm the safety of downstream planning modules. To this end, we investigate panoptic segmentation on 3D voxel scenarios and propose an instance-aware occupancy network, PanoSSC. We predict foreground objects and backgrounds separately and merge both in post-processing. For foreground instance grouping, we propose a novel 3D instance mask decoder that can efficiently extract individual objects. we unify geometric reconstruction, 3D semantic segmentation, and 3D instance segmentation into PanoSSC framework and propose new metrics for evaluating panoptic voxels. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves competitive results on SemanticKITTI semantic scene completion benchmark.

Embodied intelligence requires high-fidelity simulation environments to support perception and decision-making, yet existing platforms often suffer from data contamination and limited flexibility. To mitigate this, we propose World2Minecraft to convert real-world scenes into structured Minecraft environments based on 3D semantic occupancy prediction. In the reconstructed scenes, we can effortlessly perform downstream tasks such as Vision-Language Navigation(VLN). However, we observe that reconstruction quality heavily depends on accurate occupancy prediction, which remains limited by data scarcity and poor generalization in existing models. We introduce a low-cost, automated, and scalable data acquisition pipeline for creating customized occupancy datasets, and demonstrate its effectiveness through MinecraftOcc, a large-scale dataset featuring 100,165 images from 156 richly detailed indoor scenes. Extensive experiments show that our dataset provides a critical complement to existing datasets and poses a significant challenge to current SOTA methods. These findings contribute to improving occupancy prediction and highlight the value of World2Minecraft in providing a customizable and editable platform for personalized embodied AI research. Project page:https://world2minecraft.github.io/.

We consider the reinforcement learning (RL) problem with general utilities which consists in maximizing a function of the state-action occupancy measure. Beyond the standard cumulative reward RL setting, this problem includes as particular cases constrained RL, pure exploration and learning from demonstrations among others. For this problem, we propose a simpler single-loop parameter-free normalized policy gradient algorithm. Implementing a recursive momentum variance reduction mechanism, our algorithm achieves mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-3}) and mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-2}) sample complexities for epsilon-first-order stationarity and epsilon-global optimality respectively, under adequate assumptions. We further address the setting of large finite state action spaces via linear function approximation of the occupancy measure and show a mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-4}) sample complexity for a simple policy gradient method with a linear regression subroutine.

Comprehensive and consistent dynamic scene understanding from camera input is essential for advanced autonomous systems. Traditional camera-based perception tasks like 3D object tracking and semantic occupancy prediction lack either spatial comprehensiveness or temporal consistency. In this work, we introduce a brand-new task, Camera-based 4D Panoptic Occupancy Tracking, which simultaneously addresses panoptic occupancy segmentation and object tracking from camera-only input. Furthermore, we propose TrackOcc, a cutting-edge approach that processes image inputs in a streaming, end-to-end manner with 4D panoptic queries to address the proposed task. Leveraging the localization-aware loss, TrackOcc enhances the accuracy of 4D panoptic occupancy tracking without bells and whistles. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Waymo dataset. The source code will be released at https://github.com/Tsinghua-MARS-Lab/TrackOcc.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Acquiring real-world robotic simulation data through teleoperation is notoriously time-consuming and labor-intensive. Recently, action-driven generative models have gained widespread adoption in robot learning and simulation, as they eliminate safety concerns and reduce maintenance efforts. However, the action sequences used in these methods often result in limited control precision and poor generalization due to their globally coarse alignment. To address these limitations, we propose ORV, an Occupancy-centric Robot Video generation framework, which utilizes 4D semantic occupancy sequences as a fine-grained representation to provide more accurate semantic and geometric guidance for video generation. By leveraging occupancy-based representations, ORV enables seamless translation of simulation data into photorealistic robot videos, while ensuring high temporal consistency and precise controllability. Furthermore, our framework supports the simultaneous generation of multi-view videos of robot gripping operations - an important capability for downstream robotic learning tasks. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that ORV consistently outperforms existing baseline methods across various datasets and sub-tasks. Demo, Code and Model: https://orangesodahub.github.io/ORV

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

In observational settings, where the data generating process and possibly the sample size are not controlled, it is typically impossible to guarantee a priori that quantities of interest will be estimated with sufficient precision. However, even when the data do not determine the quantities of interest, they may still allow determination of what is missing -- unobserved information which, if observed, would meaningfully reduce uncertainty. We propose an interactive visualization system, termed variance deltas, to enable the discovery of such missing information from a Bayesian posterior distribution. This system, which we provide as a software package, represents missing information as subsets of unobserved model quantities, organized into a tree based on how well each subset explains uncertainty about the quantity of interest. This system both automates the construction of candidate subsets from minimal user input and implements interactive operations for the division and combination of subsets, allowing the efficient discovery of interesting and useful explanations. We demonstrate this system by using it to discover nonobvious explanations of uncertainty for (1) a treatment effect parameter in a simulated causal inference problem and (2) a population proportion in a forecasting model of real polling data with many sources of bias.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

Symbolic world modeling requires inferring and representing an environment's transitional dynamics as an executable program. Prior work has focused on largely deterministic environments with abundant interaction data, simple mechanics, and human guidance. We address a more realistic and challenging setting, learning in a complex, stochastic environment where the agent has only "one life" to explore a hostile environment without human guidance. We introduce OneLife, a framework that models world dynamics through conditionally-activated programmatic laws within a probabilistic programming framework. Each law operates through a precondition-effect structure, activating in relevant world states. This creates a dynamic computation graph that routes inference and optimization only through relevant laws, avoiding scaling challenges when all laws contribute to predictions about a complex, hierarchical state, and enabling the learning of stochastic dynamics even with sparse rule activation. To evaluate our approach under these demanding constraints, we introduce a new evaluation protocol that measures (a) state ranking, the ability to distinguish plausible future states from implausible ones, and (b) state fidelity, the ability to generate future states that closely resemble reality. We develop and evaluate our framework on Crafter-OO, our reimplementation of the Crafter environment that exposes a structured, object-oriented symbolic state and a pure transition function that operates on that state alone. OneLife can successfully learn key environment dynamics from minimal, unguided interaction, outperforming a strong baseline on 16 out of 23 scenarios tested. We also test OneLife's planning ability, with simulated rollouts successfully identifying superior strategies. Our work establishes a foundation for autonomously constructing programmatic world models of unknown, complex environments.

The proliferation of probabilistic AI has promoted proposals for specialized stochastic computers. Despite promising efficiency gains, these proposals have failed to gain traction because they rely on fundamentally limited modeling techniques and exotic, unscalable hardware. In this work, we address these shortcomings by proposing an all-transistor probabilistic computer that implements powerful denoising models at the hardware level. A system-level analysis indicates that devices based on our architecture could achieve performance parity with GPUs on a simple image benchmark using approximately 10,000 times less energy.

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

We introduce Probabilistic Dependent Type Systems (PDTS) via a functional language based on a subsystem of intuitionistic type theory including dependent sums and products, which is expanded to include stochastic functions. We provide a sampling-based semantics for the language based on non-deterministic beta reduction. Further, we derive a probabilistic logic from the PDTS introduced as a direct result of the Curry-Howard isomorphism. The probabilistic logic derived is shown to provide a universal representation for finite discrete distributions.

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in mortality data. This study addresses this gap by introducing a probabilistic framework for estimating the probability distribution of the modal age at death. Using a multinomial model for age-specific death counts and leveraging a Gaussian approximation, our methodology captures variability while aligning with the discrete nature of mortality data. Empirical examples are based on mortality data from six different countries. By quantifying uncertainty around the modal age at death and improving robustness to data fluctuations, this approach offers valuable insights for demographic research and policy planning.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful algorithm to sample latent variables from Bayesian models. The advent of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) frees users from writing inference algorithms and lets users focus on modeling. However, many models are difficult for HMC to solve directly, and often require tricks like model reparameterization. We are motivated by the fact that many of those models could be simplified by marginalization. We propose to use automatic marginalization as part of the sampling process using HMC in a graphical model extracted from a PPL, which substantially improves sampling from real-world hierarchical models.

In reasoning about sequential events it is natural to pose probabilistic queries such as "when will event A occur next" or "what is the probability of A occurring before B", with applications in areas such as user modeling, medicine, and finance. However, with machine learning shifting towards neural autoregressive models such as RNNs and transformers, probabilistic querying has been largely restricted to simple cases such as next-event prediction. This is in part due to the fact that future querying involves marginalization over large path spaces, which is not straightforward to do efficiently in such models. In this paper we introduce a general typology for predictive queries in neural autoregressive sequence models and show that such queries can be systematically represented by sets of elementary building blocks. We leverage this typology to develop new query estimation methods based on beam search, importance sampling, and hybrids. Across four large-scale sequence datasets from different application domains, as well as for the GPT-2 language model, we demonstrate the ability to make query answering tractable for arbitrary queries in exponentially-large predictive path-spaces, and find clear differences in cost-accuracy tradeoffs between search and sampling methods.