Daily Papers

Live sports commentary is grounded generation under a deadline: statements concern real, named athletes, the grounding state changes every few seconds, and no reference text exists at generation time. We present Pitwall, a production system that generates natural-language Formula 1 strategy briefings in English, Spanish, and Portuguese, treating faithfulness as an architectural property rather than an aspiration: every published sentence is decomposed into typed factual claims (positions, gaps, tyres, pace, overtakes, race control) and each claim is verified against the probabilistic race state that prompted it. The same verifier gates the fine-tuning data: of 3,045 model-written targets, only the 81.9% whose every claim is state-supported are retained, the rest falling back to a provably faithful template, so the generator never sees an ungrounded target. Verification is meaningful because of the grounding substrate: a vectorized Monte Carlo engine (N=2,000 per-lap race continuations) calibrated on 126 races (2018-2024) and validated on fully held-out 2025-2026 seasons (winner-in-top-3 90.3% over 155 backtests; held-out Brier 0.0745). A recurring finding spans both halves of the system: virtues trade off and must be gated separately. In simulation, calibration-optimal is not decision-optimal; in generation, fine-tuning on richer targets buys vividness that collapses into hallucination when the grounding state is sparse -- a failure a four-base replication traces to base-model instruction adherence, not scale, and that sparse-context auditing removes from the production model. End-to-end operation -- live timing to verified trilingual briefings -- was confirmed at two consecutive live Grands Prix (Austria and Britain, 2026); at Silverstone a timestamped probability trace, committed to disk before the outcome was known, locked onto the eventual winner ten laps before the flag.

The continued release of new and better image generation models increases the demand for synthetic image detectors. In such a dynamic field, detectors need to be able to generalize widely and be robust to uncontrolled alterations. The present work is motivated by this setting, when looking at the role of time, image transformations and data sources, for detector generalization. In these experiments, none of the evaluated detectors is found universal, but results indicate an ensemble could be. Experiments on data collected in the wild show this task to be more challenging than the one defined by large-scale datasets, pointing to a gap between experimentation and actual practice. Finally, we observe a race equilibrium effect, where better generators lead to better detectors, and vice versa. We hypothesize this pushes the field towards a perpetually close race between generators and detectors.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) extend large language models with explicit, multi-step reasoning traces to enhance transparency and performance on complex tasks. However, these reasoning traces can be redundant or logically inconsistent, making them a new source of hallucination that is difficult to detect. Existing hallucination detection methods focus primarily on answer-level uncertainty and often fail to detect hallucinations or logical inconsistencies arising from the model's reasoning trace. This oversight is particularly problematic for LRMs, where the explicit thinking trace is not only an important support to the model's decision-making process but also a key source of potential hallucination. To this end, we propose RACE (Reasoning and Answer Consistency Evaluation), a novel framework specifically tailored for hallucination detection in LRMs. RACE operates by extracting essential reasoning steps and computing four diagnostic signals: inter-sample consistency of reasoning traces, entropy-based answer uncertainty, semantic alignment between reasoning and answers, and internal coherence of reasoning. This joint analysis enables fine-grained hallucination detection even when the final answer appears correct. Experiments across datasets and different LLMs demonstrate that RACE outperforms existing hallucination detection baselines, offering a robust and generalizable solution for evaluating LRMs. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bebr2/RACE.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

Probabilistic model checking is a technique for formal automated reasoning about software or hardware systems that operate in the context of uncertainty or stochasticity. It builds upon ideas and techniques from a diverse range of fields, from logic, automata and graph theory, to optimisation, numerical methods and control. In recent years, probabilistic model checking has also been extended to integrate ideas from game theory, notably using models such as stochastic games and solution concepts such as equilibria, to formally verify the interaction of multiple rational agents with distinct objectives. This provides a means to reason flexibly about agents acting in either an adversarial or a collaborative fashion, and opens up opportunities to tackle new problems within, for example, artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous systems. In this paper, we summarise some of the advances in this area, and highlight applications for which they have already been used. We discuss how the strengths of probabilistic model checking apply, or have the potential to apply, to the multi-agent setting and outline some of the key challenges required to make further progress in this field.

We formalize a transfinite Phi process that treats all possibility embeddings as operators on structured state spaces including complete lattices, Banach and Hilbert spaces, and orthomodular lattices. We prove a determinization lemma showing that lifting to sets or distributions yields a deterministic global dynamic, an ordinal stabilization theorem sending operator transforms to the fixed subspace by stage omega under normal spectral contraction, and a product of Riesz projections theorem for commuting layers. We establish a compositionality law for lifted maps, show closure of Phi packings, and present a quantitative application to sensory depletion that models tissue removal as a projection and derives strict decreases in the attainable fixed point under minimal monotonicity and positivity assumptions. We also state measurable conditions for probabilistic lifts, give explicit non normal and non commuting counterexamples, and provide finite dimensional and stochastic witnesses together with per theorem scope tables and a small reproducible code appendix.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

In the evolving landscape of text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models, the remarkable capability to generate high-quality images from textual descriptions faces challenges with the potential misuse of reproducing sensitive content. To address this critical issue, we introduce Robust Adversarial Concept Erase (RACE), a novel approach designed to mitigate these risks by enhancing the robustness of concept erasure method for T2I models. RACE utilizes a sophisticated adversarial training framework to identify and mitigate adversarial text embeddings, significantly reducing the Attack Success Rate (ASR). Impressively, RACE achieves a 30 percentage point reduction in ASR for the ``nudity'' concept against the leading white-box attack method. Our extensive evaluations demonstrate RACE's effectiveness in defending against both white-box and black-box attacks, marking a significant advancement in protecting T2I diffusion models from generating inappropriate or misleading imagery. This work underlines the essential need for proactive defense measures in adapting to the rapidly advancing field of adversarial challenges. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/chkimmmmm/R.A.C.E.

We provide the largest compiled publicly available dictionaries of first, middle, and last names for the purpose of imputing race and ethnicity using, for example, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG). The dictionaries are based on the voter files of six Southern states that collect self-reported racial data upon voter registration. Our data cover a much larger scope of names than any comparable dataset, containing roughly one million first names, 1.1 million middle names, and 1.4 million surnames. Individuals are categorized into five mutually exclusive racial and ethnic groups -- White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Other -- and racial/ethnic counts by name are provided for every name in each dictionary. Counts can then be normalized row-wise or column-wise to obtain conditional probabilities of race given name or name given race. These conditional probabilities can then be deployed for imputation in a data analytic task for which ground truth racial and ethnic data is not available.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a general and unified computational framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various inference tasks (e.g., computing marginal probabilities). Towards enabling such reasoning capabilities in complex real-world tasks, Liu et al. (2022) propose to distill knowledge (through latent variable assignments) from less tractable but more expressive deep generative models. However, it is still unclear what factors make this distillation work well. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically discover that the performance of a PC can exceed that of its teacher model. Therefore, instead of performing distillation from the most expressive deep generative model, we study what properties the teacher model and the PC should have in order to achieve good distillation performance. This leads to a generic algorithmic improvement as well as other data-type-specific ones over the existing latent variable distillation pipeline. Empirically, we outperform SoTA TPMs by a large margin on challenging image modeling benchmarks. In particular, on ImageNet32, PCs achieve 4.06 bits-per-dimension, which is only 0.34 behind variational diffusion models (Kingma et al., 2021).

Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP) is a widely used approximate inference algorithm in probabilistic graphical models, with applications in computer vision, error correction codes, protein folding, program analysis, etc. However, LBP faces significant computational challenges when applied to large-scale program analysis. While GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) parallel computing provides a promising solution, existing approaches lack support for flexible update strategies and have yet to integrate logical constraints with GPU acceleration, leading to suboptimal practical performance. This paper presents a GPU-accelerated LBP algorithm for program analysis. To support the diverse update strategies required by users, we propose a unified representation for specifying arbitrary user-defined update strategies, along with a dependency analysis algorithm. Furthermore, building on previous work that leverages the local structure of Horn clauses to simplify message passing, we group messages to minimize warp divergence and better utilize GPU resources. Experimental results on datarace analysis over eight real-world Java programs show that our approach achieves an average speedup of 2.14times over the state-of-the-art sequential approach and 5.56times over the state-of-the-art GPU-based approach, while maintaining high accuracy.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building a probabilistic graphical model Psi of the data, in the form of a random-access autoregressive sequence model. Psi supports a complete set of learned conditional distributions describing the dependence of any variables in the data on any other set of variables. In step 2, Structure extraction, we show how to extract underlying low-dimensional properties in the data, corresponding to a diverse set of meaningful "intermediate structures", in a zero-shot fashion via causal inference on Psi. Step 3, Integration, completes the cycle by converting these structures into new token types that are then continually mixed back into the training diet as conditioning signals and prediction targets. Each such cycle augments the capabilities of Psi, both allowing it to model the underlying data better, and creating new control handles -- akin to an LLM-like universal prompting language. We train an instance of Psi on 1.4 trillion tokens of internet video data; we use it to perform a variety of useful video prediction and understanding inferences; we extract state-of-the-art optical flow, self-supervised depth and object segmentation; and we use these structures to support a full cycle of predictive improvements.

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

We present a probabilistic model for point cloud generation, which is fundamental for various 3D vision tasks such as shape completion, upsampling, synthesis and data augmentation. Inspired by the diffusion process in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, we view points in point clouds as particles in a thermodynamic system in contact with a heat bath, which diffuse from the original distribution to a noise distribution. Point cloud generation thus amounts to learning the reverse diffusion process that transforms the noise distribution to the distribution of a desired shape. Specifically, we propose to model the reverse diffusion process for point clouds as a Markov chain conditioned on certain shape latent. We derive the variational bound in closed form for training and provide implementations of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves competitive performance in point cloud generation and auto-encoding. The code is available at https://github.com/luost26/diffusion-point-cloud.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

The proliferation of probabilistic AI has promoted proposals for specialized stochastic computers. Despite promising efficiency gains, these proposals have failed to gain traction because they rely on fundamentally limited modeling techniques and exotic, unscalable hardware. In this work, we address these shortcomings by proposing an all-transistor probabilistic computer that implements powerful denoising models at the hardware level. A system-level analysis indicates that devices based on our architecture could achieve performance parity with GPUs on a simple image benchmark using approximately 10,000 times less energy.

A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on different occasions, and different individuals produce divergent outcomes that no observable covariate fully predicts. We argue that this variability belongs in the dynamic latent state of the person, and that human outcomes are controllable in a precise and operational sense through interventions that target the state and its weighting at the moment a decision is being formed. We define a state as the time-indexed weighting vector over the dimensions that govern how an individual's biology, physiology, and neuropsychology process the next event into a decision and an outcome. The relationship between state, decision, and outcome is causal rather than correlational. The weighting vector is dynamic at sub-daily timescales. The conscious channel through which outcomes are reportable is a narrow attentional bottleneck whose contents are themselves state-dependent. Taken together, these claims imply that the outcome of a given event is controllable, conditionally, on the state-trajectory at the time of intervention. We motivate the framework with six strands of established evidence (causal inference, predictive processing, allostasis, attentional bottleneck, chronobiology, computational psychiatry) and a 24-month observational base from a deployed behavioural platform spanning more than 200,000 consented users across four occupational personas (research period 2023 to 2026). We derive seven testable predictions, list six operational requirements for state-aware systems, and discuss implications for digital health, education, AI personalisation, and personal agency.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

Partition logics -- non-Boolean event structures obtained by pasting Boolean algebras -- provide a natural language for situations in which a system has a definite latent state but can be accessed and resolved only through mutually incompatible coarse-grained modes of observation. We show that this structure arises in a range of social-science settings by constructing six explicit examples from personnel assessment, survey framing, clinical diagnosis, espionage coordination, legal pluralism, and organizational auditing. For each case we identify the latent state space, the observational contexts as partitions, and the shared atoms that intertwine contexts, yielding instances of the L_{12} bowtie, triangle, pentagon, and automaton partition logics. These examples make precise a notion of social complementarity: different modes of inquiry can be incompatible even though the underlying system remains fully value-definite. Complementarity in this sense does not entail contextuality or ontic indeterminacy. We further compare the classical probabilities generated by convex mixtures of dispersion-free states with the quantum-like Born probabilities available when the same exclusivity graph admits a faithful orthogonal representation. The framework thus separates logical structure from probabilistic realization and suggests empirically testable benchmarks for quantum-cognition models.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

We introduce Minary, a computational framework designed as a candidate for the first formally provable autopoietic primitive. Minary represents interacting probabilistic events as multi-dimensional vectors and combines them via linear superposition rather than multiplicative scalar operations, thereby preserving uncertainty and enabling constructive and destructive interference in the range [-1,1]. A fixed set of ``perspectives'' evaluates ``semantic dimensions'' according to hidden competencies, and their interactions drive two discrete-time stochastic processes. We model this system as an iterated random affine map and use the theory of iterated random functions to prove that it converges in distribution to a unique stationary law; we moreover obtain an explicit closed form for the limiting expectation in terms of row, column, and global averages of the competency matrix. We then derive exact formulas for the mean and variance of the normalized consensus conditioned on the activation of a given semantic dimension, revealing how consensus depends on competency structure rather than raw input signals. Finally, we argue that Minary is organizationally closed yet operationally open in the sense of Maturana and Varela, and we discuss implications for building self-maintaining, distributed, and parallelizable computational systems that house a uniquely subjective notion of identity.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries (e.g., marginal probabilities). One key challenge is to scale PCs to model large and high-dimensional real-world datasets: we observe that as the number of parameters in PCs increases, their performance immediately plateaus. This phenomenon suggests that the existing optimizers fail to exploit the full expressive power of large PCs. We propose to overcome such bottleneck by latent variable distillation: we leverage the less tractable but more expressive deep generative models to provide extra supervision over the latent variables of PCs. Specifically, we extract information from Transformer-based generative models to assign values to latent variables of PCs, providing guidance to PC optimizers. Experiments on both image and language modeling benchmarks (e.g., ImageNet and WikiText-2) show that latent variable distillation substantially boosts the performance of large PCs compared to their counterparts without latent variable distillation. In particular, on the image modeling benchmarks, PCs achieve competitive performance against some of the widely-used deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and flow-based models, opening up new avenues for tractable generative modeling.

We provide an efficient method for computing the maximum likelihood mixed quantum state (with density matrix ρ) given a set of measurement outcome in a complete orthonormal operator basis subject to Gaussian noise. Our method works by first changing basis yielding a candidate density matrix μ which may have nonphysical (negative) eigenvalues, and then finding the nearest physical state under the 2-norm. Our algorithm takes at worst O(d^4) for the basis change plus O(d^3) for finding ρ where d is the dimension of the quantum state. In the special case where the measurement basis is strings of Pauli operators, the basis change takes only O(d^3) as well. The workhorse of the algorithm is a new linear-time method for finding the closest probability distribution (in Euclidean distance) to a set of real numbers summing to one.

The field of Explainable AI (XAI) is seeking to shed light on the inner workings of complex AI models and uncover the rationale behind their decisions. One of the models gaining attention are probabilistic circuits (PCs), which are a general and unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries. Probabilistic circuits guarantee inference that is polynomial in the size of the circuit. In this paper, we improve the explainability of probabilistic circuits by computing a comprehensible, readable logical theory that covers the high-density regions generated by a PC. To achieve this, pruning approaches based on generative significance are used in a new method called PUTPUT (Probabilistic circuit Understanding Through Pruning Underlying logical Theories). The method is applied to a real world use case where music playlists are automatically generated and expressed as readable (database) queries. Evaluation shows that this approach can effectively produce a comprehensible logical theory that describes the high-density regions of a PC and outperforms state of the art methods when exploring the performance-comprehensibility trade-off.

Concurrent LLM agents sharing mutable natural-language state produce Structural Race Conditions (SRCs): write-write and cross-shard stale-read conflicts that silently corrupt agent output. Existing multi-agent frameworks (LangGraph, CrewAI, AutoGen) provide no write-ownership semantics over shared state. We present S-Bus, an HTTP middleware whose central mechanism is a server-side DeliveryLog: a per-agent log of HTTP GET operations that automatically reconstructs each agent's read set at commit time without agent SDK changes under HTTP/1.1. The consistency property the DeliveryLog provides -- Observable-Read Isolation (ORI), a partial causal consistency over the HTTP-observable projection of the read set -- prevents structural race conditions when agents collaborate via shared shards. Three contributions: (C1) The DeliveryLog mechanism for automatic HTTP-traffic-based read-set reconstruction, with three-tier mechanised evidence: ReadSetSoundness and ORICommitSafety machine-checked in TLAPS (modulo one retained typing axiom); exhaustive TLC at N=3 (20,763,484 distinct states, zero violations); Dafny discharges 9 inductive soundness lemmas. (C2) Empirical structural-conflict prevention parity against PostgreSQL 17 SERIALIZABLE and Redis 7 WATCH/MULTI on shared-shard contention sweeps with 427,308 active HTTP-409 conflicts: zero Type-I corruptions across all three backends. (C3) ORI's operating envelope is topology-conditional: semantically neutral in dedicated-shard workloads; harmful in single-shard collaborative writing because preservation propagates concurrent contradictions. Source code: https://github.com/sajjadanwar0/sbus

LLMs are widely used for code generation and mathematical reasoning tasks where they are required to generate structured output. They either need to reason about code, generate code for a given specification, or reason using programs of thought. The typical approach to code generation is to prompt the model and generate samples until an appropriate program is obtained. Within this process, sampling n programs from the language model requires n GPU compute-intensive generations which becomes prohibitively expensive for larger values of n. In this work, we address this limitation by exposing the LLM's distribution within the generated programs themselves. We propose a novel test-time framework we dub probabilistic programs of thought to obtain more samples from the model with fewer LLM generations. Given a program generated by a model and the associated next-token probabilities, we build a probabilistic program that compactly represents exponentially many deterministic programs. Since performing probabilistic reasoning in this probabilistic program is much cheaper, our approach allows sampling new programs without any additional GPU compute and little CPU overhead. We instantiate our approach on benchmarks for code generation, code understanding and mathematical reasoning and report improvements in performance with fewer generations from the LLM.

We give a quantum algorithm for computing an epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium of a zero-sum game in a m times n payoff matrix with bounded entries. Given a standard quantum oracle for accessing the payoff matrix our algorithm runs in time O(m + ncdot epsilon^{-2.5} + epsilon^{-3}) and outputs a classical representation of the epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium. This improves upon the best prior quantum runtime of O(m + n cdot epsilon^{-3}) obtained by [vAG19] and the classic O((m + n) cdot epsilon^{-2}) runtime due to [GK95] whenever epsilon = Omega((m +n)^{-1}). We obtain this result by designing new quantum data structures for efficiently sampling from a slowly-changing Gibbs distribution.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have demonstrated remarkable progress in generative tasks, such as image and video synthesis. However, they still often produce hallucinated samples (hallucinations) that conflict with real-world knowledge, such as generating an implausible duplicate cup floating beside another cup. Despite their prevalence, the lack of feasible methodologies for systematically quantifying such hallucinations hinders progress in addressing this challenge and obscures potential pathways for designing next-generation generative models under factual constraints. In this work, we bridge this gap by focusing on a specific form of hallucination, which we term counting hallucination, referring to the generation of an incorrect number of instances or structured objects, such as a hand image with six fingers, despite such patterns being absent from the training data. To this end, we construct a dataset suite CountHalluSet, with well-defined counting criteria, comprising ToyShape, SimObject, and RealHand. Using these datasets, we develop a standardized evaluation protocol for quantifying counting hallucinations, and systematically examine how different sampling conditions in DPMs, including solver type, ODE solver order, sampling steps, and initial noise, affect counting hallucination levels. Furthermore, we analyze their correlation with common evaluation metrics such as FID, revealing that this widely used image quality metric fails to capture counting hallucinations consistently. This work aims to take the first step toward systematically quantifying hallucinations in diffusion models and offer new insights into the investigation of hallucination phenomena in image generation.

When the performance of a machine learning model varies over groups defined by sensitive attributes (e.g., gender or ethnicity), the performance disparity can be expressed in terms of the probability distributions of the input and output variables over each group. In this paper, we exploit this fact to reduce the disparate impact of a fixed classification model over a population of interest. Given a black-box classifier, we aim to eliminate the performance gap by perturbing the distribution of input variables for the disadvantaged group. We refer to the perturbed distribution as a counterfactual distribution, and characterize its properties for common fairness criteria. We introduce a descent algorithm to learn a counterfactual distribution from data. We then discuss how the estimated distribution can be used to build a data preprocessor that can reduce disparate impact without training a new model. We validate our approach through experiments on real-world datasets, showing that it can repair different forms of disparity without a significant drop in accuracy.

Algorithmic fairness has conventionally adopted the mathematically convenient perspective of racial color-blindness (i.e., difference unaware treatment). However, we contend that in a range of important settings, group difference awareness matters. For example, differentiating between groups may be necessary in legal contexts (e.g., the U.S. compulsory draft applies to men but not women) and harm assessments (e.g., referring to girls as ``terrorists'' may be less harmful than referring to Muslim people as such). Thus, in contrast to most fairness work, we study fairness through the perspective of treating people differently -- when it is contextually appropriate to. We first introduce an important distinction between descriptive (fact-based), normative (value-based), and correlation (association-based) benchmarks. This distinction is significant because each category requires separate interpretation and mitigation tailored to its specific characteristics. Then, we present a benchmark suite composed of eight different scenarios for a total of 16k questions that enables us to assess difference awareness. Finally, we show results across ten models that demonstrate difference awareness is a distinct dimension to fairness where existing bias mitigation strategies may backfire.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

We introduce Probabilistic Dependent Type Systems (PDTS) via a functional language based on a subsystem of intuitionistic type theory including dependent sums and products, which is expanded to include stochastic functions. We provide a sampling-based semantics for the language based on non-deterministic beta reduction. Further, we derive a probabilistic logic from the PDTS introduced as a direct result of the Curry-Howard isomorphism. The probabilistic logic derived is shown to provide a universal representation for finite discrete distributions.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

This is an extended version of our publication Learning state machines from data streams: A generic strategy and an improved heuristic, International Conference on Grammatical Inference (ICGI) 2023, Rabat, Morocco. It has been extended with a formal proof on PAC-bounds, and the discussion and analysis of a similar approach has been moved from the appendix and now has a full dedicated section. State machine models are models that simulate the behavior of discrete event systems, capable of representing systems such as software systems, network interactions, and control systems, and have been researched extensively. The nature of most learning algorithms however is the assumption that all data be available at the beginning of the algorithm, and little research has been done in learning state machines from streaming data. In this paper, we want to close this gap further by presenting a generic method for learning state machines from data streams, as well as a merge heuristic that uses sketches to account for incomplete prefix trees. We implement our approach in an open-source state merging library and compare it with existing methods. We show the effectiveness of our approach with respect to run-time, memory consumption, and quality of results on a well known open dataset. Additionally, we provide a formal analysis of our algorithm, showing that it is capable of learning within the PAC framework, and show a theoretical improvement to increase run-time, without sacrificing correctness of the algorithm in larger sample sizes.

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes our probabilistic type theory from quantum type theory, namely the bijective correspondence between predicates and side-effect free actions (called instrument, or assert, maps). The paper shows how suitable computation rules can be derived from this predicate-action correspondence, and uses these rules for calculating conditional probabilities in two well-known examples of Bayesian reasoning in (graphical) models. Our type theory may thus form the basis for a mechanisation of Bayesian inference.

This paper presents a quantitative program verification infrastructure for discrete probabilistic programs. Our infrastructure can be viewed as the probabilistic analogue of Boogie: its central components are an intermediate verification language (IVL) together with a real-valued logic. Our IVL provides a programming-language-style for expressing verification conditions whose validity implies the correctness of a program under investigation. As our focus is on verifying quantitative properties such as bounds on expected outcomes, expected run-times, or termination probabilities, off-the-shelf IVLs based on Boolean first-order logic do not suffice. Instead, a paradigm shift from the standard Boolean to a real-valued domain is required. Our IVL features quantitative generalizations of standard verification constructs such as assume- and assert-statements. Verification conditions are generated by a weakest-precondition-style semantics, based on our real-valued logic. We show that our verification infrastructure supports natural encodings of numerous verification techniques from the literature. With our SMT-based implementation, we automatically verify a variety of benchmarks. To the best of our knowledge, this establishes the first deductive verification infrastructure for expectation-based reasoning about probabilistic programs.

Hundreds of millions of people now interact with language models, with uses ranging from serving as a writing aid to informing hiring decisions. Yet these language models are known to perpetuate systematic racial prejudices, making their judgments biased in problematic ways about groups like African Americans. While prior research has focused on overt racism in language models, social scientists have argued that racism with a more subtle character has developed over time. It is unknown whether this covert racism manifests in language models. Here, we demonstrate that language models embody covert racism in the form of dialect prejudice: we extend research showing that Americans hold raciolinguistic stereotypes about speakers of African American English and find that language models have the same prejudice, exhibiting covert stereotypes that are more negative than any human stereotypes about African Americans ever experimentally recorded, although closest to the ones from before the civil rights movement. By contrast, the language models' overt stereotypes about African Americans are much more positive. We demonstrate that dialect prejudice has the potential for harmful consequences by asking language models to make hypothetical decisions about people, based only on how they speak. Language models are more likely to suggest that speakers of African American English be assigned less prestigious jobs, be convicted of crimes, and be sentenced to death. Finally, we show that existing methods for alleviating racial bias in language models such as human feedback training do not mitigate the dialect prejudice, but can exacerbate the discrepancy between covert and overt stereotypes, by teaching language models to superficially conceal the racism that they maintain on a deeper level. Our findings have far-reaching implications for the fair and safe employment of language technology.

We study one-sided and α-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic, finite-state Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set P of stochastic matrices, and the alternative corresponds to a disjoint set Q. We establish a non-asymptotic instance-dependent lower bound on the expected stopping time of any valid sequential test under the alternative, which is asymptotically tight. Our novel analysis improves the existing lower bounds, which are either asymptotic or provably sub-optimal in this setting. Our lower bound incorporates both the stationary distribution and the transition structure induced by the unknown Markov chain. We further propose an optimal test whose expected stopping time matches this lower bound asymptotically as αto 0. We illustrate the usefulness of our framework through applications to sequential detection of model misspecification in Markov Chain Monte Carlo and to testing structural properties, such as the linearity of transition dynamics, in Markov decision processes. Our findings yield a sharp and general characterization of optimal sequential testing procedures under Markovian dependence.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are now increasingly widely used to simulate personas in virtual environments, leveraging their instruction-following capability. However, we discovered that even state-of-the-art LLMs cannot simulate personas with reversed performance (e.g., student personas with low proficiency in educational settings), which impairs the simulation diversity and limits the practical applications of the simulated environments. In this work, using mathematical reasoning as a representative scenario, we propose the first benchmark dataset for evaluating LLMs on simulating personas with reversed performance, a capability that we dub "counterfactual instruction following". We evaluate both open-weight and closed-source LLMs on this task and find that LLMs, including the OpenAI o1 reasoning model, all struggle to follow counterfactual instructions for simulating reversedly performing personas. Intersectionally simulating both the performance level and the race population of a persona worsens the effect even further. These results highlight the challenges of counterfactual instruction following and the need for further research.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Quantum computing offers a powerful new perspective on probabilistic and collective behaviors traditionally taught in statistical physics. This paper presents two classroom-ready modules that integrate quantum computing into the undergraduate curriculum using Qiskit: the quantum random walk and the Ising model. Both modules allow students to simulate and contrast classical and quantum systems, deepening their understanding of concepts such as superposition, interference, and statistical distributions. We outline the quantum circuits involved, provide sample code and student activities, and discuss how each example can be used to enhance student engagement with statistical physics. These modules are suitable for integration into courses in statistical mechanics, modern physics, or as part of an introductory unit on quantum computing.

Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is the most popular method for proxying race/ethnicity in voter registration files that do not contain it. This paper benchmarks BISG against a range of previously untested machine learning alternatives, using voter files with self-reported race/ethnicity from California, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. This analysis yields three key findings. First, machine learning consistently outperforms BISG at individual classification of race/ethnicity. Second, BISG and machine learning methods exhibit divergent biases for estimating regional racial composition. Third, the performance of all methods varies substantially across states. These results suggest that pre-trained machine learning models are preferable to BISG for individual classification. Furthermore, mixed results across states underscore the need for researchers to empirically validate their chosen race/ethnicity proxy in their populations of interest.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

Electroencephalography (EEG) is a cornerstone of brain-computer interfaces and clinical neuroscience, yet deep learning models are typically trained and evaluated under a single, unreported preprocessing pipeline. We formalize preprocessing choices as a counterfactual intervention space and show that EEG predictions are surprisingly unstable under this space: across six datasets spanning four paradigms, up to 42% of trial-level predictions flip when only the preprocessing changes, a variability that standard uncertainty methods do not explicitly quantify because they condition on a fixed preprocessing pipeline. We provide three tools to make this instability measurable, decomposable, and reducible. First, a Walsh-Hadamard decomposition of the 2^7 pipeline space reveals that sensitivity is near-additive in practice under the binary intervention design, enabling efficient step-by-step optimization. Second, we introduce Preprocessing Uncertainty (PU), a per-trial diagnostic that captures a dimension of instability complementary to model-based confidence. Third, we study Normalized Adaptive PGI (NA-PGI), a graph-structured regularizer that exploits the compositional structure of preprocessing interventions as one mitigation strategy with clear scope conditions.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

Unfairness in mortgage lending has created generational inequality among racial and ethnic groups in the US. Many studies address this problem, but most existing work focuses on correlation-based techniques. In our work, we use the framework of counterfactual fairness to train fair machine learning models. We propose a new causal graph for the variables available in the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. We use a matching-based approach instead of the latent variable modeling approach, because the former approach does not rely on any modeling assumptions. Furthermore, matching provides us with counterfactual pairs in which the race variable is isolated. We first demonstrate the unfairness in mortgage approval and interest rates between African-American and non-Hispanic White sub-populations. Then, we show that having balanced data using matching does not guarantee perfect counterfactual fairness of the machine learning models.

Symbolic world modeling requires inferring and representing an environment's transitional dynamics as an executable program. Prior work has focused on largely deterministic environments with abundant interaction data, simple mechanics, and human guidance. We address a more realistic and challenging setting, learning in a complex, stochastic environment where the agent has only "one life" to explore a hostile environment without human guidance. We introduce OneLife, a framework that models world dynamics through conditionally-activated programmatic laws within a probabilistic programming framework. Each law operates through a precondition-effect structure, activating in relevant world states. This creates a dynamic computation graph that routes inference and optimization only through relevant laws, avoiding scaling challenges when all laws contribute to predictions about a complex, hierarchical state, and enabling the learning of stochastic dynamics even with sparse rule activation. To evaluate our approach under these demanding constraints, we introduce a new evaluation protocol that measures (a) state ranking, the ability to distinguish plausible future states from implausible ones, and (b) state fidelity, the ability to generate future states that closely resemble reality. We develop and evaluate our framework on Crafter-OO, our reimplementation of the Crafter environment that exposes a structured, object-oriented symbolic state and a pure transition function that operates on that state alone. OneLife can successfully learn key environment dynamics from minimal, unguided interaction, outperforming a strong baseline on 16 out of 23 scenarios tested. We also test OneLife's planning ability, with simulated rollouts successfully identifying superior strategies. Our work establishes a foundation for autonomously constructing programmatic world models of unknown, complex environments.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

Machine learning models trained on imbalanced datasets often exhibit intersectional biases-systematic errors arising from the interaction of multiple attributes such as object class and environmental conditions. This paper presents a data-driven framework for analyzing and mitigating such biases in image classification. We introduce the Intersectional Fairness Evaluation Framework (IFEF), which combines quantitative fairness metrics with interpretability tools to systematically identify bias patterns in model predictions. Building on this analysis, we propose Bias-Weighted Augmentation (BWA), a novel data augmentation strategy that adapts transformation intensities based on subgroup distribution statistics. Experiments on the Open Images V7 dataset with five object classes demonstrate that BWA improves accuracy for underrepresented class-environment intersections by up to 24 percentage points while reducing fairness metric disparities by 35%. Statistical analysis across multiple independent runs confirms the significance of improvements (p < 0.05). Our methodology provides a replicable approach for analyzing and addressing intersectional biases in image classification systems.

Citizens' assemblies are a form of democratic innovation in which a randomly selected panel of constituents deliberates on questions of public interest. We study a novel goal for the selection of panel members: maximizing the entropy of the distribution over possible panels. We design algorithms that sample from maximum-entropy distributions, potentially subject to constraints on the individual selection probabilities. We investigate the properties of these algorithms theoretically, including in terms of their resistance to manipulation and transparency. We benchmark our algorithms on a large set of real assembly lotteries in terms of their intersectional diversity and the probability of satisfying unseen representation constraints, and we obtain favorable results on both measures. We deploy one of our algorithms on a website for citizens' assembly practitioners.

Fair decisions require ignoring irrelevant, potentially biasing, information. To achieve this, decision-makers need to approximate what decision they would have made had they not known certain facts, such as the gender or race of a job candidate. This counterfactual self-simulation is notoriously hard for humans, leading to biased judgments even by well-meaning actors. Here we show that large language models (LLMs) suffer from similar limitations in their ability to approximate what decisions they would make under counterfactual knowledge in offsetting gender and race biases and overcoming sycophancy. We show that prompting models to ignore or pretend not to know biasing information fails to offset these biases and occasionally backfires. However, unlike humans, LLMs can be given access to a ground-truth model of their own counterfactual cognition -- their own API. We show that this access to the responses of a blinded replica enables fairer decisions, while providing greater transparency to distinguish implicit from intentionally biased behavior.

In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bias where some individuals/subgroups can be worse off than under simply optimizing for accuracy. For instance, a classifier implementing race-based parity may significantly disadvantage women of the advantaged race. To quantify this bias, we propose a general notion of eta-infra-marginality that can be used to evaluate the extent of this bias. We prove theoretically that, unlike other fairness metrics, infra-marginality does not have a trade-off with accuracy: high accuracy directly leads to low infra-marginality. This observation is confirmed through empirical analysis on multiple simulated and real-world datasets. Further, we find that maximizing group fairness often increases infra-marginality, suggesting the consideration of both group-level fairness and individual-level infra-marginality. However, measuring infra-marginality requires knowledge of the true distribution of individual-level outcomes correctly and explicitly. We propose a practical method to measure infra-marginality, and a simple algorithm to maximize group-wise accuracy and avoid infra-marginality.

State-space language models such as Mamba and gated linear attention (GLA) offer efficient alternatives to transformers due to their linear complexity and parallel training, but often lack the expressivity and robust state-tracking needed for complex reasoning. We address these limitations by reframing sequence modelling through a probabilistic lens, using Bayesian filters as a core primitive. While classical filters such as Kalman filters provide principled state estimation and uncertainty tracking, they are typically viewed as inherently sequential. We show that reparameterising the Kalman filter in information form enables its updates to be computed via an associative scan, allowing efficient parallel training. Building on this insight, we introduce the Kalman Linear Attention (KLA) layer, a neural sequence-modelling primitive that performs time-parallel probabilistic inference while maintaining explicit belief-state uncertainty. KLA offers strictly more expressive nonlinear updates and gating than GLA variants while retaining their computational advantages. On language modelling tasks, KLA matches or outperforms modern SSMs and GLAs across representative discrete token-manipulation and state-tracking benchmarks.

The intrinsic probabilistic nature of quantum systems makes error correction or mitigation indispensable for quantum computation. While current error-correcting strategies focus on correcting errors in quantum states or quantum gates, these fine-grained error-correction methods can incur significant overhead for quantum algorithms of increasing complexity. We present a first step in achieving error correction at the level of quantum algorithms by combining a unified perspective on modern quantum algorithms via quantum signal processing (QSP). An error model of under- or over-rotation of the signal processing operator parameterized by epsilon < 1 is introduced. It is shown that while Pauli Z-errors are not recoverable without additional resources, Pauli X and Y errors can be arbitrarily suppressed by coherently appending a noisy `recovery QSP.' Furthermore, it is found that a recovery QSP of length O(2^k c^{k^2} d) is sufficient to correct any length-d QSP with c unique phases to k^{th}-order in error epsilon. Allowing an additional assumption, a lower bound of Omega(cd) is shown, which is tight for k = 1, on the length of the recovery sequence. Our algorithmic-level error correction method is applied to Grover's fixed-point search algorithm as a demonstration.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be computed piecewise in terms of the component processes. We study the structure of this compositional rule, noting that it relates to the lens pattern in functional programming. Working in a suitably general axiomatic presentation of a category of Markov kernels, we see how we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a fibred category. We discuss the compositional nature of this, formulated as a functor on the underlying category and explore how this can used for a more type-driven approach to statistical inference.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a standard paradigm for post-training and aligning Large Language Models (LLMs), yet recent evidence suggests it faces a persistent "capability ceiling": unlike classical RL systems that discover novel strategies, RL for LLMs often acts as a mere refiner of patterns already latent in pre-trained weights. In this work, we identify a fundamental structural bottleneck: while classical RL relies on compact, informative Markov states, current LLM post-training formulations are tethered to an ever-expanding history of actions. We revisit a classical principle long central to RL yet absent from LLM post-training: explicit Markov states. Theoretically, we provide rigorous guarantees demonstrating that leveraging estimated Markov states can significantly reduce sample complexity. Empirically, we show that introducing Markov states consistently breaks the performance boundaries of standard RL post-training across a suite of complex logic puzzles. Our findings suggest that moving beyond "history-as-state" modeling in favor of structured Markovian representations is essential for unlocking open-ended discovery and genuinely new reasoning capabilities in Generative AI.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

Text-to-image generative AI models such as Stable Diffusion are used daily by millions worldwide. However, the extent to which these models exhibit racial and gender stereotypes is not yet fully understood. Here, we document significant biases in Stable Diffusion across six races, two genders, 32 professions, and eight attributes. Additionally, we examine the degree to which Stable Diffusion depicts individuals of the same race as being similar to one another. This analysis reveals significant racial homogenization, e.g., depicting nearly all middle eastern men as dark-skinned, bearded, and wearing a traditional headdress. We then propose novel debiasing solutions that address the above stereotypes. Finally, using a preregistered experiment, we show that being presented with inclusive AI-generated faces reduces people's racial and gender biases, while being presented with non-inclusive ones increases such biases. This persists regardless of whether the images are labeled as AI-generated. Taken together, our findings emphasize the need to address biases and stereotypes in AI-generated content.

The theory of open quantum systems lays the foundations for a substantial part of modern research in quantum science and engineering. Rooted in the dimensionality of their extended Hilbert spaces, the high computational complexity of simulating open quantum systems calls for the development of strategies to approximate their dynamics. In this paper, we present an approach for tackling open quantum system dynamics. Using an exact probabilistic formulation of quantum physics based on positive operator-valued measure (POVM), we compactly represent quantum states with autoregressive transformer neural networks; such networks bring significant algorithmic flexibility due to efficient exact sampling and tractable density. We further introduce the concept of String States to partially restore the symmetry of the autoregressive transformer neural network and improve the description of local correlations. Efficient algorithms have been developed to simulate the dynamics of the Liouvillian superoperator using a forward-backward trapezoid method and find the steady state via a variational formulation. Our approach is benchmarked on prototypical one and two-dimensional systems, finding results which closely track the exact solution and achieve higher accuracy than alternative approaches based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample restricted Boltzmann machines. Our work provides general methods for understanding quantum dynamics in various contexts, as well as techniques for solving high-dimensional probabilistic differential equations in classical setups.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may ask whether composing the inversions of the component processes gives the same belief update as the inversion of the whole. We answer this question affirmatively, showing that the relevant compositional structure is precisely that of the lens pattern, and that we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a corresponding fibred category. We define a general notion of (mixed) Bayesian lens, and discuss the (un)lawfulness of these lenses when their contravariant components are exact Bayesian inversions. We prove our main result both abstractly and concretely, for both discrete and continuous states, taking care to illustrate the common structures.

Existing public face datasets are strongly biased toward Caucasian faces, and other races (e.g., Latino) are significantly underrepresented. This can lead to inconsistent model accuracy, limit the applicability of face analytic systems to non-White race groups, and adversely affect research findings based on such skewed data. To mitigate the race bias in these datasets, we construct a novel face image dataset, containing 108,501 images, with an emphasis of balanced race composition in the dataset. We define 7 race groups: White, Black, Indian, East Asian, Southeast Asian, Middle East, and Latino. Images were collected from the YFCC-100M Flickr dataset and labeled with race, gender, and age groups. Evaluations were performed on existing face attribute datasets as well as novel image datasets to measure generalization performance. We find that the model trained from our dataset is substantially more accurate on novel datasets and the accuracy is consistent between race and gender groups.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

We study the problem of optimally projecting the transition matrix of a finite ergodic multivariate Markov chain onto a lower-dimensional state space. Specifically, we seek to construct a projected Markov chain that optimizes various information-theoretic criteria under cardinality constraints. These criteria include entropy rate, information-theoretic distance to factorizability, independence, and stationarity. We formulate these tasks as best subset selection problems over multivariate Markov chains and leverage the submodular (or supermodular) structure of the objective functions to develop efficient greedy-based algorithms with theoretical guarantees. We extend our analysis to k-submodular settings and introduce a generalized version of the distorted greedy algorithm, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the theory and algorithms through extensive numerical experiments with publicly available code on multivariate Markov chains associated with the Bernoulli-Laplace and Curie-Weiss model.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can inadvertently reflect societal biases present in their training data, leading to harmful or prejudiced outputs. In the Indian context, our empirical evaluations across a suite of models reveal that biases around caste and religion are particularly salient. Yet, most existing mitigation strategies are Western-centric and fail to address these local nuances. We propose AMBEDKAR, a framework inspired by the egalitarian vision of Dr B. R. Ambedkar, architect of the Indian Constitution, to guide LLM outputs toward fairness, neutrality, and inclusion in line with Articles 14 to 17. Our approach introduces a Constitution-Aware Decoding Layer, guided by the AI Constitution of India and applied only at inference time, without any parameter updates to the base model. We incorporate a speculative decoding algorithm that proactively reduces casteist and communal bias during generation. This mitigation layer operates directly within the decoding process, avoiding changes to model internals and lowering the computational and infrastructural costs associated with retraining. We reinterpret speculative decoding not merely as an efficiency tool but as a mechanism for fairness. In this framework, a Small Language Model (SLM) acts as a potentially biased generator, while a constitutionally guided Large Language Model (LLM) serves as the verifier. Rather than accelerating generation, the LLM enforces bias-robust trajectories in the SLM outputs. This inversion of roles gives rise to a fairness-by-speculation paradigm. Our approach yields an absolute reduction of bias up to 26.41 percent compared to baseline. Our source code, datasets, and results are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/AMBEDKAR-983B/

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly take actions (screening applicants, recommending credit, triaging patients), yet fairness for LLMs is still measured by grading answers. We introduce AgentFairBench, a cheap, reproducible, multi-domain benchmark for demographic disparity in the actions of LLM agents. Grounded in a companion framework, the Bias Conduction Framework (BCF, restated here), it spans three regulator-anchored domains: hiring, lending, and medical triage. Synthetic, demographic-neutral profiles are evaluated in counterfactual matched sets that vary only a name-coded race x gender signal (in the Bertrand Mullainathan tradition), under four agent scaffolds of increasing agency (direct, chain-of-thought, multi-agent deliberation, tool-augmented). A NumPy-only harness computes counterfactual flip rate, mean absolute score difference (MASD), action-rate disparity, and tool-invocation disparity, with bootstrap confidence intervals, paired tests, and false-discovery-rate control, for single-digit dollars per model. A live leaderboard with a held-out private split and a contamination canary admits external models by submission. Our pilot (864 decisions plus a test-retest replication) carries a methodological lesson: comparing a six-group score spread against a two-run noise difference overstates disparity by ~ 2.4X through statistic arity alone. Against an arity matched noise floor and an omnibus group test, claude haiku 4 5 shows no demographic effect above sampling noise (0 of 120 pairwise and 0 of 9 omnibus contrasts survive correction); a planted-bias test confirms the instrument detects disparity when present. The contribution is a sound, sensitive, adoption-ready instrument, the arity matched null methodology, and open artifacts to scale it. Code, data, and harness are released under open licenses, with an anonymized review artifact.

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

The autoregressive world model exhibits robust generalization capabilities in vectorized scene understanding but encounters difficulties in deriving actions due to insufficient uncertainty modeling and self-delusion. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of deriving decisions from an autoregressive world model by addressing these challenges through the formulation of multiple probabilistic hypotheses. We propose LatentDriver, a framework models the environment's next states and the ego vehicle's possible actions as a mixture distribution, from which a deterministic control signal is then derived. By incorporating mixture modeling, the stochastic nature of decisionmaking is captured. Additionally, the self-delusion problem is mitigated by providing intermediate actions sampled from a distribution to the world model. Experimental results on the recently released close-loop benchmark Waymax demonstrate that LatentDriver surpasses state-of-the-art reinforcement learning and imitation learning methods, achieving expert-level performance. The code and models will be made available at https://github.com/Sephirex-X/LatentDriver.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly asked not only to write static interfaces, but to construct executable interactive worlds from natural language. Browser-native 3D, commonly built with Three.js, is a natural next frontier: generated programs must integrate assets, obey spatial and physical constraints, and keep user-facing controls synchronized with hidden runtime state. Existing web-generation benchmarks and evaluators, however, largely observe only pixels or DOM nodes, while the mechanics of a Three.js world unfold inside an opaque <canvas>. We introduce WorldCoder-Bench, a benchmark for autonomous, physically grounded 3D world synthesis. WorldCoder-Bench contains 2,026 expert-curated tasks across Simulation, Rendering, and Application scenarios, with optional .glb assets and hidden behavioral contracts. We further propose StateProbe, an execution-based protocol that probes generated programs in a sandboxed browser and verifies hidden, mutation-hardened contracts over runtime states and transitions. Beyond verification coverage, we report Return on Automation and Time Efficiency Multiplier to measure correctness-adjusted cost and time savings. Across nine frontier models, the best system reaches only 27.8% verification coverage on WorldCoder-Core and 19.9% on WorldCoder-Robust, with failures dominated by state-schema drift and broken interaction chains rather than missing scene elements. Utility metrics further show that cheap or fast models can still provide substantial value on easier domains. WorldCoder-Bench is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/WorldCoder-Bench/.

State Space Models (SSMs) such as Mamba achieve linear-time sequence processing through input-dependent recurrence, but this mechanism introduces a critical safety vulnerability. We show that the spectral radius rho(A-bar) of the discretized transition operator governs effective memory horizon: when an adversary drives rho toward zero through gradient-based Hidden State Poisoning, memory collapses from millions of tokens to mere dozens, silently destroying reasoning capacity without triggering output-level alarms. We prove an Evasion Existence Theorem showing that for any output-only defense, adversarial inputs exist that simultaneously induce spectral collapse and evade detection, then introduce SpectralGuard, a real-time monitor that tracks spectral stability across all model layers. SpectralGuard achieves F1=0.961 against non-adaptive attackers and retains F1=0.842 under the strongest adaptive setting, with sub-15ms per-token latency. Causal interventions and cross-architecture transfer to hybrid SSM-Attention systems confirm that spectral monitoring provides a principled, deployable safety layer for recurrent foundation models.

On-policy distillation (OPD) has become a core technique in the post-training of large language models, yet its training dynamics remain poorly understood. This paper provides a systematic investigation of OPD dynamics and mechanisms. We first identify that two conditions govern whether OPD succeeds or fails: (i) the student and teacher should share compatible thinking patterns; and (ii) even with consistent thinking patterns and higher scores, the teacher must offer genuinely new capabilities beyond what the student has seen during training. We validate these findings through weak-to-strong reverse distillation, showing that same-family 1.5B and 7B teachers are distributionally indistinguishable from the student's perspective. Probing into the token-level mechanism, we show that successful OPD is characterized by progressive alignment on high-probability tokens at student-visited states, a small shared token set that concentrates most of the probability mass (97%-99%). We further propose two practical strategies to recover failing OPD: off-policy cold start and teacher-aligned prompt selection. Finally, we show that OPD's apparent free lunch of dense token-level reward comes at a cost, raising the question of whether OPD can scale to long-horizon distillation.

How do sequence models represent their decision-making process? Prior work suggests that Othello-playing neural network learned nonlinear models of the board state (Li et al., 2023). In this work, we provide evidence of a closely related linear representation of the board. In particular, we show that probing for "my colour" vs. "opponent's colour" may be a simple yet powerful way to interpret the model's internal state. This precise understanding of the internal representations allows us to control the model's behaviour with simple vector arithmetic. Linear representations enable significant interpretability progress, which we demonstrate with further exploration of how the world model is computed.

Autoregressive decoding is bottlenecked by its sequential nature. Speculative decoding has become a standard way to accelerate inference by using a fast draft model to predict upcoming tokens from a slower target model, and then verifying them in parallel with a single target model forward pass. However, speculative decoding itself relies on a sequential dependence between speculation and verification. We introduce speculative speculative decoding (SSD) to parallelize these operations. While a verification is ongoing, the draft model predicts likely verification outcomes and prepares speculations pre-emptively for them. If the actual verification outcome is then in the predicted set, a speculation can be returned immediately, eliminating drafting overhead entirely. We identify three key challenges presented by speculative speculative decoding, and suggest principled methods to solve each. The result is Saguaro, an optimized SSD algorithm. Our implementation is up to 2x faster than optimized speculative decoding baselines and up to 5x faster than autoregressive decoding with open source inference engines.

Minority samples are underrepresented instances located in low-density regions of a data manifold, and are valuable in many generative AI applications, such as data augmentation, creative content generation, etc. Unfortunately, existing diffusion-based minority generators often rely on computationally expensive guidance dedicated for minority generation. To address this, here we present a simple yet powerful guidance-free approach called Boost-and-Skip for generating minority samples using diffusion models. The key advantage of our framework requires only two minimal changes to standard generative processes: (i) variance-boosted initialization and (ii) timestep skipping. We highlight that these seemingly-trivial modifications are supported by solid theoretical and empirical evidence, thereby effectively promoting emergence of underrepresented minority features. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that Boost-and-Skip greatly enhances the capability of generating minority samples, even rivaling guidance-based state-of-the-art approaches while requiring significantly fewer computations. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/BnS.

Assessing the fidelity and diversity of the generative model is a difficult but important issue for technological advancement. So, recent papers have introduced k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) based precision-recall metrics to break down the statistical distance into fidelity and diversity. While they provide an intuitive method, we thoroughly analyze these metrics and identify oversimplified assumptions and undesirable properties of kNN that result in unreliable evaluation, such as susceptibility to outliers and insensitivity to distributional changes. Thus, we propose novel metrics, P-precision and P-recall (PP\&PR), based on a probabilistic approach that address the problems. Through extensive investigations on toy experiments and state-of-the-art generative models, we show that our PP\&PR provide more reliable estimates for comparing fidelity and diversity than the existing metrics. The codes are available at https://github.com/kdst-team/Probablistic_precision_recall.

We show that autoregressive decoding of a transformer-based language model can realize universal computation, without external intervention or modification of the model's weights. Establishing this result requires understanding how a language model can process arbitrarily long inputs using a bounded context. For this purpose, we consider a generalization of autoregressive decoding where, given a long input, emitted tokens are appended to the end of the sequence as the context window advances. We first show that the resulting system corresponds to a classical model of computation, a Lag system, that has long been known to be computationally universal. By leveraging a new proof, we show that a universal Turing machine can be simulated by a Lag system with 2027 production rules. We then investigate whether an existing large language model can simulate the behaviour of such a universal Lag system. We give an affirmative answer by showing that a single system-prompt can be developed for gemini-1.5-pro-001 that drives the model, under deterministic (greedy) decoding, to correctly apply each of the 2027 production rules. We conclude that, by the Church-Turing thesis, prompted gemini-1.5-pro-001 with extended autoregressive (greedy) decoding is a general purpose computer.

When agents are acting together, they may need a simple mechanism to decide on joint actions. One possibility is to have the agents express their preferences in the form of a ballot and use a voting rule to decide the winning action(s). Unfortunately, agents may try to manipulate such an election by misreporting their preferences. Fortunately, it has been shown that it is NP-hard to compute how to manipulate a number of different voting rules. However, NP-hardness only bounds the worst-case complexity. Recent theoretical results suggest that manipulation may often be easy in practice. To address this issue, I suggest studying empirically if computational complexity is in practice a barrier to manipulation. The basic tool used in my investigations is the identification of computational "phase transitions". Such an approach has been fruitful in identifying hard instances of propositional satisfiability and other NP-hard problems. I show that phase transition behaviour gives insight into the hardness of manipulating voting rules, increasing concern that computational complexity is indeed any sort of barrier. Finally, I look at the problem of computing manipulation of other, related problems like stable marriage and tournament problems.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

The field of machine learning has achieved striking progress in recent years, witnessing breakthrough results on language modelling, protein folding and nitpickingly fine-grained dog breed classification. Some even succeeded at playing computer games and board games, a feat both of engineering and of setting their employers' expectations. The central contribution of this work is to carefully examine whether this progress, and technology more broadly, can be expected to continue indefinitely. Through a rigorous application of statistical theory and failure to extrapolate beyond the training data, we answer firmly in the negative and provide details: technology will peak at 3:07 am (BST) on 20th July, 2032. We then explore the implications of this finding, discovering that individuals awake at this ungodly hour with access to a sufficiently powerful computer possess an opportunity for myriad forms of long-term linguistic 'lock in'. All we need is a large (>> 1W) data centre to seize this pivotal moment. By setting our analogue alarm clocks, we propose a tractable algorithm to ensure that, for the future of humanity, the British spelling of colour becomes the default spelling across more than 80% of the global word processing software market.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are computationally intractable. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational tractability, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.

Probabilistic mental simulation is thought to play a key role in human reasoning, planning, and prediction, yet the demands of simulation in complex environments exceed realistic human capacity limits. A theory with growing evidence is that people simulate using simplified representations of the environment that abstract away from irrelevant details, but it is unclear how people determine these simplifications efficiently. Here, we present a "Just-in-Time" framework for simulation-based reasoning that demonstrates how such representations can be constructed online with minimal added computation. The model uses a tight interleaving of simulation, visual search, and representation modification, with the current simulation guiding where to look and visual search flagging objects that should be encoded for subsequent simulation. Despite only ever encoding a small subset of objects, the model makes high-utility predictions. We find strong empirical support for this account over alternative models in a grid-world planning task and a physical reasoning task across a range of behavioral measures. Together, these results offer a concrete algorithmic account of how people construct reduced representations to support efficient mental simulation.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

Agent systems accumulate conflicting observations across branches, retries, and replicas, yet many practical memory layers still collapse disagreement behind overwrite rules that are difficult to inspect or correct. We present StateFuse, a conflict-aware replicated memory contract built on standard OpSet/CRDT merge. StateFuse does not introduce a new join algebra; it defines an agent-facing semantics layer with immutable history, explicit conflict objects, exact and semantic correction handles (claim_id / claim_ref), deterministic predicate contracts, and projection-time resolution that cannot rewrite replicated state. We evaluate StateFuse against flat multi-value, raw-log, provenance-style, and collapsed baselines under matched resolver and verification policies. On a 282-question official conflict-bearing MemoryAgentBench slice, the compared methods tie on answer accuracy, but conflict-preserving surfaces keep contradictions visible while collapsed surfaces do not. In a controlled agent loop with uniform verification, preserving ambiguity enables safer abstention and correction than early collapse. A correction-handle ablation further shows that semantic handles matter when exact prior identifiers are unavailable. The resulting claim is narrow: StateFuse is best supported as a safer public memory contract for contradiction surfacing, abstention, and auditable correction, not as a universal accuracy gain.

Event cameras have recently gained significant traction since they open up new avenues for low-latency and low-power solutions to complex computer vision problems. To unlock these solutions, it is necessary to develop algorithms that can leverage the unique nature of event data. However, the current state-of-the-art is still highly influenced by the frame-based literature, and usually fails to deliver on these promises. In this work, we take this into consideration and propose a novel self-supervised learning pipeline for the sequential estimation of event-based optical flow that allows for the scaling of the models to high inference frequencies. At its core, we have a continuously-running stateful neural model that is trained using a novel formulation of contrast maximization that makes it robust to nonlinearities and varying statistics in the input events. Results across multiple datasets confirm the effectiveness of our method, which establishes a new state of the art in terms of accuracy for approaches trained or optimized without ground truth.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been adopted as synthetic agents for public opinion simulation, offering a promising alternative to costly and slow human surveys. Despite their scalability, current LLM-based simulation methods fail to capture social diversity, producing flattened inter-group differences and overly homogeneous responses across demographic groups. We identify this limitation as a Diversity Collapse phenomenon in LLM hidden representations, where distinct social identities become increasingly indistinguishable across layers. Motivated by this observation, we propose Parametric Social Identity Injection (PSII), a general framework that injects explicit, parametric representations of demographic attributes and value orientations directly into intermediate hidden states of LLMs. Unlike prompt-based persona conditioning, PSII enables fine-grained and controllable identity modulation at the representation level. Extensive experiments on the World Values Survey using multiple open-source LLMs show that PSII significantly improves distributional fidelity and diversity, reducing KL divergence to real-world survey data while enhancing overall diversity. This work provides new insights into representation-level control of LLM agents and advances scalable, diversity-aware public opinion simulation.

Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While frequentist methods have yielded online filtering and prediction techniques, most Bayesian papers have focused on the retrospective segmentation problem. Here we examine the case where the model parameters before and after the changepoint are independent and we derive an online algorithm for exact inference of the most recent changepoint. We compute the probability distribution of the length of the current ``run,'' or time since the last changepoint, using a simple message-passing algorithm. Our implementation is highly modular so that the algorithm may be applied to a variety of types of data. We illustrate this modularity by demonstrating the algorithm on three different real-world data sets.

Speculative decoding is a technique to leverage hardware concurrency to improve the efficiency of large-scale autoregressive (AR) Transformer models by enabling multiple steps of token generation in a single forward pass. State-space models (SSMs) are already more efficient than AR Transformers, since their state summarizes all past data with no need to cache or re-process tokens in the sliding window context. However, their state can also comprise thousands of tokens; so, speculative decoding has recently been extended to SSMs. Existing approaches, however, do not leverage the tree-based verification methods, since current SSMs lack the means to compute a token tree efficiently. We propose the first scalable algorithm to perform tree-based speculative decoding in state-space models (SSMs) and hybrid architectures of SSMs and Transformer layers. We exploit the structure of accumulated state transition matrices to facilitate tree-based speculative decoding with minimal overhead to current SSM state update implementations. With the algorithm, we describe a hardware-aware implementation that improves naive application of AR Transformer tree-based speculative decoding methods to SSMs. Furthermore, we outperform vanilla speculative decoding with SSMs even with a baseline drafting model and tree structure on three different benchmarks, opening up opportunities for further speed up with SSM and hybrid model inference. Code will be released upon paper acceptance.

We propose a stronger formulation of RL on top of RWKV-style recurrent sequence models, in which the fixed-size recurrent state is explicitly interpreted as a belief state rather than an opaque hidden vector. Instead of conditioning policy and value on a single summary h_t, we maintain a compact uncertainty-aware state b_t = (μ_t, Σ_t) derived from RWKV-style recurrent statistics and let control depend on both memory and uncertainty. This design targets a key weakness of plain fixed-state policies in partially observed settings: they may store evidence, but not necessarily confidence. We present the method, a theoretical program, and a pilot RL experiment with hidden episode-level observation noise together with a test-time noise sweep. The pilot shows that belief-state policies nearly match the best recurrent baseline overall while slightly improving return on the hardest in-distribution regime and under a held-out noise shift. Additional ablations show that this simple belief readout is currently stronger than two more structured extensions, namely gated memory control and privileged belief targets, underscoring the need for richer benchmarks.

The growing demand for efficient long-sequence modeling on edge devices has propelled widespread adoption of State Space Models (SSMs) like Mamba, due to their superior computational efficiency and scalability. As its autoregressive generation process remains memory-bound, speculative decoding has been proposed that incorporates draft model generation and target model verification. However, directly applying speculative decoding to SSMs faces three key challenges: (1) hidden state backtracking difficulties, (2) tree-based parallel verification incompatibility, and (3) hardware workload mismatch. To address these challenges, we propose SpecMamba, the first FPGA-based accelerator for Mamba with speculative decoding, which features system, algorithm, and hardware co-design. At the system level, we present a memory-aware hybrid backtracking strategy to coordinate both models. At the algorithm level, we propose first-in-first-out (FIFO)-based tree verification with tiling to minimize memory access. At the hardware level, we customize a dataflow that computes linear layers in parallel and SSM layers in series to enable maximal overlapping. Implemented on AMD FPGA platforms (VHK158 and VCK190), SpecMamba achieves a 2.27x speedup over GPU baselines and a 2.85x improvement compared to prior FPGA solutions, while demonstrating 5.41x and 1.26x higher energy efficiency, respectively.

The lack of transparency of Deep Neural Networks continues to be a limitation that severely undermines their reliability and usage in high-stakes applications. Promising approaches to overcome such limitations are Prototype-Based Self-Explainable Neural Networks (PSENNs), whose predictions rely on the similarity between the input at hand and a set of prototypical representations of the output classes, offering therefore a deep, yet transparent-by-design, architecture. So far, such models have been designed by considering pointwise estimates for the prototypes, which remain fixed after the learning phase of the model. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reformulation of PSENNs, called Prob-PSENN, which replaces point estimates for the prototypes with probability distributions over their values. This provides not only a more flexible framework for an end-to-end learning of prototypes, but can also capture the explanatory uncertainty of the model, which is a missing feature in previous approaches. In addition, since the prototypes determine both the explanation and the prediction, Prob-PSENNs allow us to detect when the model is making uninformed or uncertain predictions, and to obtain valid explanations for them. Our experiments demonstrate that Prob-PSENNs provide more meaningful and robust explanations than their non-probabilistic counterparts, thus enhancing the explainability and reliability of the models.

We present high quality image synthesis results using diffusion probabilistic models, a class of latent variable models inspired by considerations from nonequilibrium thermodynamics. Our best results are obtained by training on a weighted variational bound designed according to a novel connection between diffusion probabilistic models and denoising score matching with Langevin dynamics, and our models naturally admit a progressive lossy decompression scheme that can be interpreted as a generalization of autoregressive decoding. On the unconditional CIFAR10 dataset, we obtain an Inception score of 9.46 and a state-of-the-art FID score of 3.17. On 256x256 LSUN, we obtain sample quality similar to ProgressiveGAN. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/hojonathanho/diffusion

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Automated evaluation of free-form outputs from large language models (LLMs) is challenging because many distinct answers can be equally valid. A common practice is to use LLMs themselves as judges, but the theoretical properties of this approach are not yet well understood. We show that a geometric framework that represents both judges and candidates as points on a probability simplex can provide helpful insight on what is or is not identifiable using LLM judges. Our theoretical analysis uncovers a "phase transition" in ranking identifiability: for binary scoring systems, true rankings are identifiable even with weak judges under mild assumptions, while rankings become non-identifiable for three or more scoring levels even with infinite data, absent additional prior knowledge. This non-identifiability highlights how uncertainty in rankings stems from not only aleatoric uncertainty (i.e., inherent stochasticity in the data) but also epistemic uncertainty regarding which assumptions hold, an aspect that has received limited attention until now. To integrate both types of uncertainty, we use Bayesian inference to encode assumptions as priors and conduct sensitivity analysis of ranking estimates and credible intervals. Empirical evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that Bayesian inference yields more accurate rankings and substantially improves coverage rates. These results underscore the importance of taking a more holistic approach to uncertainty quantification when using LLMs as judges.

Interpretable models are designed to make decisions in a human-interpretable manner. Representatively, Concept Bottleneck Models (CBM) follow a two-step process of concept prediction and class prediction based on the predicted concepts. CBM provides explanations with high-level concepts derived from concept predictions; thus, reliable concept predictions are important for trustworthiness. In this study, we address the ambiguity issue that can harm reliability. While the existence of a concept can often be ambiguous in the data, CBM predicts concepts deterministically without considering this ambiguity. To provide a reliable interpretation against this ambiguity, we propose Probabilistic Concept Bottleneck Models (ProbCBM). By leveraging probabilistic concept embeddings, ProbCBM models uncertainty in concept prediction and provides explanations based on the concept and its corresponding uncertainty. This uncertainty enhances the reliability of the explanations. Furthermore, as class uncertainty is derived from concept uncertainty in ProbCBM, we can explain class uncertainty by means of concept uncertainty. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ejkim47/prob-cbm.

As multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) frequently exhibit errors when solving scientific problems, evaluating the validity of their reasoning processes is critical for ensuring reliability and uncovering fine-grained model weaknesses. Since human evaluation is laborious and costly, prompting MLLMs as automated process judges has become a common practice. However, the reliability of these model-based judges remains uncertain. To address this, we introduce ProJudgeBench, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for evaluating abilities of MLLM-based process judges. ProJudgeBench comprises 2,400 test cases and 50,118 step-level labels, spanning four scientific disciplines with diverse difficulty levels and multi-modal content. In ProJudgeBench, each step is meticulously annotated by human experts for correctness, error type, and explanation, enabling a systematic evaluation of judges' capabilities to detect, classify and diagnose errors. Evaluation on ProJudgeBench reveals a significant performance gap between open-source and proprietary models. To bridge this gap, we further propose ProJudge-173k, a large-scale instruction-tuning dataset, and a Dynamic Dual-Phase fine-tuning strategy that encourages models to explicitly reason through problem-solving before assessing solutions. Both contributions significantly enhance the process evaluation capabilities of open-source models. All the resources will be released to foster future research of reliable multi-modal process evaluation.

State-space model releases are typically coupled to fused CUDA and Triton kernels, inheriting a hard dependency on NVIDIA hardware. We show that Mamba-2's state space duality algorithm -- diagonal state structure, chunkable recurrence, and einsum-dominated compute with static control flow -- maps cleanly onto what XLA's fusion and tiling passes actually optimise, making custom kernels optional rather than required. We implement the full inference path (prefill, cached autoregressive decoding) as shaped standard primitives under XLA, without hand-written kernels, and realise the architecture's theoretical O(1) state management as a compiled on-device cache requiring no host synchronisation during generation. The implementation runs unmodified on CPU, NVIDIA GPU, and Google Cloud TPU from a single JAX source. On TPU v6e across five model scales (130M--2.7B parameters), XLA-generated code reaches approximately 140 TFLOPS on single-stream prefill (15% MFU) and up to 64% bandwidth utilisation on decode. Greedy decoding matches the PyTorch/CUDA reference token-for-token across 64 steps, with hidden-state agreement within float32 rounding tolerance. The pattern transfers to any SSM recurrence satisfying the same structural conditions, on any platform with a mature XLA backend. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/CosmoNaught/mamba2-jax and merged into the Bonsai JAX model library.

Dataset Distillation aims to compress a large dataset into a small synthetic one while maintaining predictive performance. We show that as different demographic groups exhibit distinct predictive patterns, the distillation process struggles to simultaneously preserve informative signals for all subgroups, regardless of whether group sizes are mildly or severely imbalanced. Consequently, models trained on distilled data can experience substantial performance drops for certain subgroups, leading to fairness gaps. Crucially, these gaps do not disappear by merely correcting group imbalance, since they stem from fundamental mismatches in subgroup predictive patterns rather than from sample-size disparities alone. We therefore formally analyze the interaction between these two sources of bias and cast the solution as identifying a group-imbalance-agnostic barycenter of the predictive information that induces similar representations across all subgroups. By distilling toward this shared aggregate representation, we show that group fairness concerns can be reduced. Our approach is compatible with existing distillation methods, and empirical results show that it substantially reduces bias introduced by dataset distillation.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

In reinforcement learning, agents collect state information and rewards through environmental interactions, essential for policy refinement. This process is notably time-consuming, especially in complex robotic simulations and real-world applications. Traditional algorithms usually re-engage with the environment after processing a single batch of samples, thereby failing to fully capitalize on historical data. However, frequently observed states, with reliable value estimates, require minimal updates; in contrast, rare observed states necessitate more intensive updates for achieving accurate value estimations. To address uneven sample utilization, we propose Novelty-guided Sample Reuse (NSR). NSR provides extra updates for infrequent, novel states and skips additional updates for frequent states, maximizing sample use before interacting with the environment again. Our experiments show that NSR improves the convergence rate and success rate of algorithms without significantly increasing time consumption. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ppksigs/NSR-DDPG-HER.

We extend the simply-typed guarded lambda-calculus with discrete probabilities and endow it with a program logic for reasoning about relational properties of guarded probabilistic computations. This provides a framework for programming and reasoning about infinite stochastic processes like Markov chains. We demonstrate the logic sound by interpreting its judgements in the topos of trees and by using probabilistic couplings for the semantics of relational assertions over distributions on discrete types. The program logic is designed to support syntax-directed proofs in the style of relational refinement types, but retains the expressiveness of higher-order logic extended with discrete distributions, and the ability to reason relationally about expressions that have different types or syntactic structure. In addition, our proof system leverages a well-known theorem from the coupling literature to justify better proof rules for relational reasoning about probabilistic expressions. We illustrate these benefits with a broad range of examples that were beyond the scope of previous systems, including shift couplings and lump couplings between random walks.

Unfair predictions of machine learning (ML) models impede their broad acceptance in real-world settings. Tackling this arduous challenge first necessitates defining what it means for an ML model to be fair. This has been addressed by the ML community with various measures of fairness that depend on the prediction outcomes of the ML models, either at the group level or the individual level. These fairness measures are limited in that they utilize point predictions, neglecting their variances, or uncertainties, making them susceptible to noise, missingness and shifts in data. In this paper, we first show that an ML model may appear to be fair with existing point-based fairness measures but biased against a demographic group in terms of prediction uncertainties. Then, we introduce new fairness measures based on different types of uncertainties, namely, aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. We demonstrate on many datasets that (i) our uncertainty-based measures are complementary to existing measures of fairness, and (ii) they provide more insights about the underlying issues leading to bias.

We study fairness in classification, where individuals are classified, e.g., admitted to a university, and the goal is to prevent discrimination against individuals based on their membership in some group, while maintaining utility for the classifier (the university). The main conceptual contribution of this paper is a framework for fair classification comprising (1) a (hypothetical) task-specific metric for determining the degree to which individuals are similar with respect to the classification task at hand; (2) an algorithm for maximizing utility subject to the fairness constraint, that similar individuals are treated similarly. We also present an adaptation of our approach to achieve the complementary goal of "fair affirmative action," which guarantees statistical parity (i.e., the demographics of the set of individuals receiving any classification are the same as the demographics of the underlying population), while treating similar individuals as similarly as possible. Finally, we discuss the relationship of fairness to privacy: when fairness implies privacy, and how tools developed in the context of differential privacy may be applied to fairness.

We introduce HoloClean, a framework for holistic data repairing driven by probabilistic inference. HoloClean unifies existing qualitative data repairing approaches, which rely on integrity constraints or external data sources, with quantitative data repairing methods, which leverage statistical properties of the input data. Given an inconsistent dataset as input, HoloClean automatically generates a probabilistic program that performs data repairing. Inspired by recent theoretical advances in probabilistic inference, we introduce a series of optimizations which ensure that inference over HoloClean's probabilistic model scales to instances with millions of tuples. We show that HoloClean scales to instances with millions of tuples and find data repairs with an average precision of ~90% and an average recall of above ~76% across a diverse array of datasets exhibiting different types of errors. This yields an average F1 improvement of more than 2x against state-of-the-art methods.

Forecasting time series data is a critical area of research with applications spanning from stock prices to early epidemic prediction. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed, real-life prediction problems often require hybrid solutions that bridge classical forecasting approaches and modern neural network models. In this study, we introduce the Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks (PARNN), capable of handling complex time series data exhibiting non-stationarity, nonlinearity, non-seasonality, long-range dependence, and chaotic patterns. PARNN is constructed by improving autoregressive neural networks (ARNN) using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) feedback error, combining the explainability, scalability, and "white-box-like" prediction behavior of both models. Notably, the PARNN model provides uncertainty quantification through prediction intervals, setting it apart from advanced deep learning tools. Through comprehensive computational experiments, we evaluate the performance of PARNN against standard statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, including Transformers, NBeats, and DeepAR. Diverse real-world datasets from macroeconomics, tourism, epidemiology, and other domains are employed for short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting evaluations. Our results demonstrate the superiority of PARNN across various forecast horizons, surpassing the state-of-the-art forecasters. The proposed PARNN model offers a valuable hybrid solution for accurate long-range forecasting. By effectively capturing the complexities present in time series data, it outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy and reliability. The ability to quantify uncertainty through prediction intervals further enhances the model's usefulness in decision-making processes.

The illusion phenomenon of large language models (LLMs) is the core obstacle to their reliable deployment. This article formalizes the large language model as a probabilistic Turing machine by constructing a "computational necessity hierarchy", and for the first time proves the illusions are inevitable on diagonalization, incomputability, and information theory boundaries supported by the new "learner pump lemma". However, we propose two "escape routes": one is to model Retrieval Enhanced Generations (RAGs) as oracle machines, proving their absolute escape through "computational jumps", providing the first formal theory for the effectiveness of RAGs; The second is to formalize continuous learning as an "internalized oracle" mechanism and implement this path through a novel neural game theory framework. Finally, this article proposes a feasible new principle for artificial intelligence security - Computational Class Alignment (CCA), which requires strict matching between task complexity and the actual computing power of the system, providing theoretical support for the secure application of artificial intelligence.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

Recent work has shown that, under certain assumptions, zero-shot reinforcement learning (RL) methods can generalise to any unseen task in an environment after reward-free pre-training. Access to Markov states is one such assumption, yet, in many real-world applications, the Markov state is only partially observable. Here, we explore how the performance of standard zero-shot RL methods degrades when subjected to partially observability, and show that, as in single-task RL, memory-based architectures are an effective remedy. We evaluate our memory-based zero-shot RL methods in domains where the states, rewards and a change in dynamics are partially observed, and show improved performance over memory-free baselines. Our code is open-sourced via: https://enjeeneer.io/projects/bfms-with-memory/.

In LLM inference, the same prompt may yield different outputs across different runs. At the system level, this non-determinism arises from floating-point non-associativity combined with dynamic batching and GPU kernels whose reduction orders vary with batch size. A straightforward way to eliminate non-determinism is to disable dynamic batching during inference, but doing so severely degrades throughput. Another approach is to make kernels batch-invariant; however, this tightly couples determinism to kernel design, requiring new implementations. This coupling also imposes fixed runtime overheads, regardless of how much of the workload actually requires determinism. Inspired by ideas from speculative decoding, we present LLM-42, a scheduling-based approach to enable determinism in LLM inference. Our key observation is that if a sequence is in a consistent state, the next emitted token is likely to be consistent even with dynamic batching. Moreover, most GPU kernels use shape-consistent reductions. Leveraging these insights, LLM-42 decodes tokens using a non-deterministic fast path and enforces determinism via a lightweight verify-rollback loop. The verifier replays candidate tokens under a fixed-shape reduction schedule, commits those that are guaranteed to be consistent across runs, and rolls back those violating determinism. LLM-42 mostly re-uses existing kernels unchanged and incurs overhead only in proportion to the traffic that requires determinism.

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) are generative models showing competitive performance in various domains, including image synthesis and 3D point cloud generation. Sampling from pre-trained DPMs involves multiple neural function evaluations (NFEs) to transform Gaussian noise samples into images, resulting in higher computational costs compared to single-step generative models such as GANs or VAEs. Therefore, reducing the number of NFEs while preserving generation quality is crucial. To address this, we propose LD3, a lightweight framework designed to learn the optimal time discretization for sampling. LD3 can be combined with various samplers and consistently improves generation quality without having to retrain resource-intensive neural networks. We demonstrate analytically and empirically that LD3 improves sampling efficiency with much less computational overhead. We evaluate our method with extensive experiments on 7 pre-trained models, covering unconditional and conditional sampling in both pixel-space and latent-space DPMs. We achieve FIDs of 2.38 (10 NFE), and 2.27 (10 NFE) on unconditional CIFAR10 and AFHQv2 in 5-10 minutes of training. LD3 offers an efficient approach to sampling from pre-trained diffusion models. Code is available at https://github.com/vinhsuhi/LD3.

This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et al. (2017)). This gives rise to a novel sequence prediction architecture we call a spectral state space model. Spectral state space models have two primary advantages. First, they have provable robustness properties as their performance depends on neither the spectrum of the underlying dynamics nor the dimensionality of the problem. Second, these models are constructed with fixed convolutional filters that do not require learning while still outperforming SSMs in both theory and practice. The resulting models are evaluated on synthetic dynamical systems and long-range prediction tasks of various modalities. These evaluations support the theoretical benefits of spectral filtering for tasks requiring very long range memory.

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.