Daily Papers

Complex problem solving (CPS) with large language models (LLMs) is often framed as a matter of stronger reasoning or longer generation. Yet early-step error amplification, prompt brittleness, and failures to revise incorrect commitments are difficult to explain by missing knowledge or expressive capacity alone. This survey interprets CPS as a sequential estimation-and-decision problem over a latent solution state. A controller maintains a belief about an unobserved solution trajectory, updates it as noisy intermediate evidence arrives, and decides whether to commit, verify, branch, roll back, or abstain to minimize expected loss. Reasoning supplies candidate transitions and interpretations, whereas process control shapes and evaluates those proposals and regulates subsequent transitions and observations. Within this framework, we organize existing methods around five components: explicit state representation, transition structuring, validation and constraint enforcement, search and rollback, and uncertainty management. We also interpret evaluation metrics according to the statistical quantities they estimate. The framework further yields a diagnostic hypothesis: interventions should be most effective when they target the error or uncertainty component implicated by an observed failure. We distinguish systematic, stochastic, and irreducible error together with epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, and call this alignment problem-control fit and its failure control mismatch. For example, additional sampling may reduce sampling variability while leaving a shared systematic error unchanged. This perspective clarifies what current methods estimate and control, what remains uncontrolled, and why reliable validation, targeted recovery, calibrated uncertainty, and matched-budget evaluation are central open problems.

Predicting how a cell will change its transcriptional state under a developmental signal or a genetic perturbation is the computational core of in-silico biology and the AI Virtual Cell program. Existing approaches either fit static control-to-treated maps that discard time, or solve multi-step ODE / Schrödinger-bridge problems on each dataset independently. We introduce Chreode, a one-step cell world model that predicts action-conditioned cell-state transitions through a structured residual transition operator. It shifts distributional evolution from inference time to training time, enabling single-pass generation while preserving a Waddington-inspired decomposition into downhill landscape flow, rotational in-tangent dynamics, and stochastic spread. The model is pretrained with a shared scVI encoder and a DiT-based dynamics backbone on a 2.4M-cell mouse embryonic atlas spanning 7 datasets. As a fine-tuning initialization, Chreode improves per-target Sinkhorn distance on Weinreb hematopoiesis and Veres islet differentiation over matched scratch models, PI-SDE, and PRESCIENT. As a transferable gene-state embedding for GEARS, the pretrained dynamics representation reduces shared-vocabulary DE20 mean squared error on Norman Perturb-seq from 0.2121 to 0.1858, a 12.4% relative improvement, without changing the GEARS training procedure. We interpret this transfer to perturbation prediction as evidence that pretrained developmental-trajectory dynamics encode differentiation primitives transferable to CRISPR-induced state shifts, since both involve cell-state transitions in a shared latent geometry. The pretrained backbone additionally produces zero-shot clonal fate scores on Weinreb that are competitive with strong dynamic-OT baselines.

While many real-world problems that might benefit from reinforcement learning, these problems rarely fit into the MDP mold: interacting with the environment is often expensive and specifying reward functions is challenging. Motivated by these challenges, prior work has developed data-driven approaches that learn entirely from samples from the transition dynamics and examples of high-return states. These methods typically learn a reward function from high-return states, use that reward function to label the transitions, and then apply an offline RL algorithm to these transitions. While these methods can achieve good results on many tasks, they can be complex, often requiring regularization and temporal difference updates. In this paper, we propose a method for offline, example-based control that learns an implicit model of multi-step transitions, rather than a reward function. We show that this implicit model can represent the Q-values for the example-based control problem. Across a range of state-based and image-based offline control tasks, our method outperforms baselines that use learned reward functions; additional experiments demonstrate improved robustness and scaling with dataset size.

Model-predictive control (MPC) is a powerful framework for controlling dynamic systems under constraints, but it remains challenging to deploy on resource-constrained platforms, especially for problems involving conic constraints. To address this, we extend recent work developing fast, structure-exploiting, cached ADMM solvers for embedded applications, to provide support for second-order cones, as well as C++ code generation from Python, MATLAB, and Julia for easy deployment. Microcontroller benchmarks show that our solver provides up to a two-order-of-magnitude speedup, ranging from 10.6x to 142.7x, over state-of-the-art embedded solvers on QP and SOCP problems, and enables us to fit order-of-magnitude larger problems in memory. We validate our solver's deployed performance through simulation and hardware experiments, including conically-constrained trajectory tracking on a 27g Crazyflie quadrotor. To get started with Conic-TinyMPC, visit our documentation, examples, and the open-source codebase at https://tinympc.org.

Generalist foundation models such as GPT-4 have displayed surprising capabilities in a wide variety of domains and tasks. Yet, there is a prevalent assumption that they cannot match specialist capabilities of fine-tuned models. For example, most explorations to date on medical competency benchmarks have leveraged domain-specific training, as exemplified by efforts on BioGPT and Med-PaLM. We build on a prior study of GPT-4's capabilities on medical challenge benchmarks in the absence of special training. Rather than using simple prompting to highlight the model's out-of-the-box capabilities, we perform a systematic exploration of prompt engineering. We find that prompting innovation can unlock deeper specialist capabilities and show that GPT-4 easily tops prior leading results for medical benchmarks. The prompting methods we explore are general purpose, and make no specific use of domain expertise, removing the need for expert-curated content. Our experimental design carefully controls for overfitting during the prompt engineering process. We introduce Medprompt, based on a composition of several prompting strategies. With Medprompt, GPT-4 achieves state-of-the-art results on all nine of the benchmark datasets in the MultiMedQA suite. The method outperforms leading specialist models such as Med-PaLM 2 by a significant margin with an order of magnitude fewer calls to the model. Steering GPT-4 with Medprompt achieves a 27% reduction in error rate on the MedQA dataset over the best methods to date achieved with specialist models and surpasses a score of 90% for the first time. Beyond medical problems, we show the power of Medprompt to generalize to other domains and provide evidence for the broad applicability of the approach via studies of the strategy on exams in electrical engineering, machine learning, philosophy, accounting, law, nursing, and clinical psychology.

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

The study emphasizes the challenge of finding the optimal trade-off between bias and variance, especially as hyperparameter optimization increases in complexity. Through empirical analysis, three hyperparameter tuning algorithms Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), Genetic Search, and Random Search are evaluated across regression and classification tasks. The results show that nonlinear models, with properly tuned hyperparameters, significantly outperform linear models. Interestingly, Random Search excelled in regression tasks, while TPE was more effective for classification tasks. This suggests that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, as different algorithms perform better depending on the task and model type. The findings underscore the importance of selecting the appropriate tuning method and highlight the computational challenges involved in optimizing machine learning models, particularly as search spaces expand.

Some security-development settings require local models that map an objective to an ordered, checkable plan. We present a low-rank decomposition adapter and release a case-disjoint corpus with 24 authored decompositions and 83 derived next-step examples across 24 satellite-security cases. To prevent reference-plan leakage, prompts contain one objective and eight shuffled SPARTA candidates. The evaluation candidate sets are constructed with oracle inclusion of every reference technique, so this study measures selection from a controlled set, not retrieval. On six fixed cases and five decoding seeds, mean scores vary across adapters and prompted Qwen2.5 baselines; a separate greedy check over three adapter training seeds shows non-negligible training variance. A 24-fold greedy leave-one-case-out control at the two compact sizes likewise shows tradeoffs: at 1.5B, adapter precision is 0.583 against 0.480 for two-shot prompting, while recall is 0.586 against 0.660. Case-resampling intervals for adapter precision relative to the strongest prompted baseline cross zero at 1.5B and 7B. The adapter is also substantially more format-compliant, which prevents attributing all score differences to selection. Autoregressive next-step accuracy is 0.08, 0.06, and 0.29 at 0.5B, 1.5B, and 7B. We therefore offer the formulation, leakage-controlled dataset, reproducibility package, and descriptive analysis as a proof of concept, not evidence of a reliable stand-alone decomposition system or a general adapter advantage. A separate diagnostic tests contract reuse.

Complete orthogonal predictive coordinates do not by themselves bind a latent direction to a named intervention. We present a mathematical and synthetic audit motivated by vascular device-vessel suitcordance. Capacity-matched least-squares predictors were exactly equivalent under complete fixed output transforms, whereas an anchor-only observer recovered interpretations only within the span of known perturbation signatures. Six three-dimensional configurations across 64 seeds gave a maximum paired prediction discrepancy of 6.7e-15 but a median untransported edit error of 1.513. Coordinate transport removed that error. Noisy and weak anchors constrained calibration stability, and changing the representation basis required recalibration or verified transport. Across 256 additional fits in dimensions 3-24, prediction equivalence persisted within 4.0e-15. We then evaluated nine deliberate runnable fault classes across 64 seeds. All 576 faulty executions completed, but each violated at least one reconstruction, prediction, delivered-edit or scope contract; all 320 valid control records passed. Repeating a faulty implementation gave exact self-agreement despite error against the separately computed simulator expectation. For one omitted-direction defect, probe coverage followed its analytic law, and rank-aware abstention protected unsupported interpretations. Scalar-noise experiments exposed both missed weak faults and excessive rejection under narrow relative tolerances. These controls provide an executable separation of prediction, semantic support and scientific acceptance. They are synthetic numerical audits, not clinical validation, neural JEPA-Anything replication, agent learning or patient treatment-effect estimation.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Human visual imagination usually begins with analogies or rough sketches. For example, given an image with a girl playing guitar before a building, one may analogously imagine how it seems like if Iron Man playing guitar before Pyramid in Egypt. Nonetheless, visual condition may not be precisely aligned with the imaginary result indicated by text prompt, and existing layout-controllable text-to-image (T2I) generation models is prone to producing degraded generated results with obvious artifacts. To address this issue, we present a novel T2I generation method dubbed SmartControl, which is designed to modify the rough visual conditions for adapting to text prompt. The key idea of our SmartControl is to relax the visual condition on the areas that are conflicted with text prompts. In specific, a Control Scale Predictor (CSP) is designed to identify the conflict regions and predict the local control scales, while a dataset with text prompts and rough visual conditions is constructed for training CSP. It is worth noting that, even with a limited number (e.g., 1,000~2,000) of training samples, our SmartControl can generalize well to unseen objects. Extensive experiments on four typical visual condition types clearly show the efficacy of our SmartControl against state-of-the-arts. Source code, pre-trained models, and datasets are available at https://github.com/liuxiaoyu1104/SmartControl.

This paper target in addressing the challenges of underthinking and overthinking in long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning for Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) by introducing Reasoning Control Fields (RCF)--a novel test-time approach that injects structured control signals to guide reasoning from a tree search perspective. RCF enables models to adjust reasoning effort according to given control conditions when solving complex tasks. Additionally, we present the Control-R-4K dataset, which consists of challenging problems annotated with detailed reasoning processes and corresponding control fields. To further enhance reasoning control, we propose a Conditional Distillation Finetuning (CDF) method, which trains model--particularly Control-R-32B--to effectively adjust reasoning effort during test time. Experimental results on benchmarks such as AIME2024 and MATH500 demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance at the 32B scale while enabling a controllable Long CoT reasoning process (L-CoT). Overall, this work introduces an effective paradigm for controllable test-time scaling reasoning.

We consider whether off-policy experience from a smaller, weaker model can elicit capability in a stronger learner that on-policy RL fine-tuning (e.g., GRPO) does not reach. We find that injecting mathematically wrong drafts from a smaller but more domain-trained model -- mismatched to the current problem -- into a stronger learner's GRPO context consistently outperforms standard on-policy GRPO on held-out MATH-500 and out-of-distribution AIME 2025/2026. Concretely, we use Mathstral-7B as the learner, Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B as the draft model, 8.8K Level 3--5 MATH problems (with MATH-500 held out), and train with Dr. GRPO. Mismatch is an active ingredient: shuffling drafts to mismatched problems while holding everything else constant yields +1.62pp on MATH-500 (greedy pass@1) over the matched-wrong variant (n=10 seeds, p=0.0015, Welch's t). In fact, the mismatched-wrong variant leads all other variants we tested on MATH-500 across both greedy pass@1 and sampling pass@k. On out-of-distribution AIME 2025 and 2026, the mismatched-wrong variant uniquely lifts pass@k above both Mathstral-7B (in its native [INST] format) and the Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B draft model at every sample budget from k=1 to k=1024 across 2 seeds (+14.2pp on 2025 and +9.0pp on 2026 at pass@1024 over Mathstral-7B), and at pass@1024 also leads no-draft, matched-wrong, and mismatched-correct variants on both years. All variants use the same prompt with no draft injection at test time. The recipe -- trained on a single GPU with no SFT, no reward models, no synthesized data, and no produce-critique-revise inner loop -- reaches 71.98% MATH-500 on Mathstral-7B-v0.1, the highest published result on this model to our knowledge, surpassing the heavier WizardMath pipeline at 70.9% on full MATH (SFT + PPO with process/instruction reward models).

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences is essential for safe and useful LLMs. Previous works mainly adopt reinforcement learning (RLHF) and direct preference optimization (DPO) with human feedback for alignment. Nevertheless, they have certain drawbacks. One such limitation is that they can only align models with one preference at the training time (e.g., they cannot learn to generate concise responses when the preference data prefers detailed responses), or have certain constraints for the data format (e.g., DPO only supports pairwise preference data). To this end, prior works incorporate controllable generations for alignment to make language models learn multiple preferences and provide outputs with different preferences during inference if asked. Controllable generation also offers more flexibility with regard to data format (e.g., it supports pointwise preference data). Specifically, it uses different control tokens for different preferences during training and inference, making LLMs behave differently when required. Current controllable generation methods either use a special token or hand-crafted prompts as control tokens, and optimize them together with LLMs. As control tokens are typically much lighter than LLMs, this optimization strategy may not effectively optimize control tokens. To this end, we first use parameter-efficient tuning (e.g., prompting tuning and low-rank adaptation) to optimize control tokens and then fine-tune models for controllable generations, similar to prior works. Our approach, alignMEnt with parameter-Efficient Tuning (MEET), improves the quality of control tokens, thus improving controllable generation quality consistently by an apparent margin on two well-recognized datasets compared with prior works.

Testing and evaluation is a critical step in the development and deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Due to the black-box property and various types of CAVs, how to test and evaluate CAVs adaptively remains a major challenge. Many approaches have been proposed to adaptively generate testing scenarios during the testing process. However, most existing approaches cannot be applied to complex scenarios, where the variables needed to define such scenarios are high dimensional. Towards filling this gap, the adaptive testing with sparse control variates method is proposed in this paper. Instead of adaptively generating testing scenarios, our approach evaluates CAVs' performances by adaptively utilizing the testing results. Specifically, each testing result is adjusted using multiple linear regression techniques based on control variates. As the regression coefficients can be adaptively optimized for the CAV under test, using the adjusted results can reduce the estimation variance, compared with using the testing results directly. To overcome the high dimensionality challenge, sparse control variates are utilized only for the critical variables of testing scenarios. To validate the proposed method, the high-dimensional overtaking scenarios are investigated, and the results demonstrate that our approach can further accelerate the evaluation process by about 30 times.

The recent explosion in the capabilities of large language models has led to a wave of interest in how best to prompt a model to perform a given task. While it may be tempting to simply choose a prompt based on average performance on a validation set, this can lead to a deployment where unexpectedly poor responses are generated, especially for the worst-off users. To mitigate this prospect, we propose Prompt Risk Control, a lightweight framework for selecting a prompt based on rigorous upper bounds on families of informative risk measures. We offer methods for producing bounds on a diverse set of metrics, including quantities that measure worst-case responses and disparities in generation quality across the population of users. In addition, we extend the underlying statistical bounding techniques to accommodate the possibility of distribution shifts in deployment. Experiments on applications such as open-ended chat, medical question summarization, and code generation highlight how such a framework can foster responsible deployment by reducing the risk of the worst outcomes.

As language models (LMs) approach human-level performance, a comprehensive understanding of their behavior becomes crucial. This includes evaluating capabilities, biases, task performance, and alignment with societal values. Extensive initial evaluations, including red teaming and diverse benchmarking, can establish a model's behavioral profile. However, subsequent fine-tuning or deployment modifications may alter these behaviors in unintended ways. We present a method for continual Behavioral Shift Auditing (BSA) in LMs. Building on recent work in hypothesis testing, our auditing test detects behavioral shifts solely through model generations. Our test compares model generations from a baseline model to those of the model under scrutiny and provides theoretical guarantees for change detection while controlling false positives. The test features a configurable tolerance parameter that adjusts sensitivity to behavioral changes for different use cases. We evaluate our approach using two case studies: monitoring changes in (a) toxicity and (b) translation performance. We find that the test is able to detect meaningful changes in behavior distributions using just hundreds of examples.

An LLM agent's real-task performance is shaped as much by the harness around its model as by the frozen model itself: its prompts, injected knowledge, runtime control, and configuration. In deployment the harness is often the only lever available, so improving it automatically is the natural way to raise performance without touching the weights. The hard part is not generating changes but knowing which one truly helped. Self-generated feedback is noisy, and an apparent gain can be a measurement artifact or an edit that merely overfits the tasks it was tuned on. We present a self-evolving agent-harness framework that separates proposing changes from crediting them: a language model diagnoses failures and proposes patches, while all sampling, measurement, and significance testing are owned by deterministic code, so every credited improvement is trustworthy by construction. Patches populate a gated, categorical quality-diversity archive (GSME) keyed on the (WHERE x WHY) pathology an edit addresses rather than the tasks it fixes, an anti-overfitting inductive bias; generalization is measured on a sealed test scored only after evolution. Across seven domains with a frozen open-weight model, the harness is train-selected and scored once on a sealed test; its credited gains there are +9 to +15.5pp and retain 86-147% of the training gain, evidence they generalize rather than overfit. The winning patch tracks the model's dominant pathology, not its size or family: changing the model can change the pathology and the patch, while the same pathology-to-patch match recurs across two model families. What transfers is the diagnose-and-credit loop, not any specific harness.

To enhance the controllability of text-to-image diffusion models, current ControlNet-like models have explored various control signals to dictate image attributes. However, existing methods either handle conditions inefficiently or use a fixed number of conditions, which does not fully address the complexity of multiple conditions and their potential conflicts. This underscores the need for innovative approaches to manage multiple conditions effectively for more reliable and detailed image synthesis. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework, DynamicControl, which supports dynamic combinations of diverse control signals, allowing adaptive selection of different numbers and types of conditions. Our approach begins with a double-cycle controller that generates an initial real score sorting for all input conditions by leveraging pre-trained conditional generation models and discriminative models. This controller evaluates the similarity between extracted conditions and input conditions, as well as the pixel-level similarity with the source image. Then, we integrate a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) to build an efficient condition evaluator. This evaluator optimizes the ordering of conditions based on the double-cycle controller's score ranking. Our method jointly optimizes MLLMs and diffusion models, utilizing MLLMs' reasoning capabilities to facilitate multi-condition text-to-image (T2I) tasks. The final sorted conditions are fed into a parallel multi-control adapter, which learns feature maps from dynamic visual conditions and integrates them to modulate ControlNet, thereby enhancing control over generated images. Through both quantitative and qualitative comparisons, DynamicControl demonstrates its superiority over existing methods in terms of controllability, generation quality and composability under various conditional controls.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

Long-horizon language-model agents are dominated, in lines of code and in operational complexity, not by their underlying model but by the harness that wraps it: context compaction, tool caching, semantic memory, trajectory reuse, speculative tool prediction, and the glue that binds the model to a sandboxed execution environment. We argue that harness design is a first-class machine-learning problem and that automated configuration search dominates manual stacking once the flag space exceeds a handful of bits. We defend this claim in two steps. First, we formalize automated harness optimization as constrained noisy Bayesian optimization over a mixed-variable, cost-heterogeneous configuration space with cold-start-corrected rewards and a posterior chance-constrained safety check, and give a reference solver, HARBOR (Harness Axis-aligned Regularized Bayesian Optimization Routine), built from a block-additive SAAS surrogate, multi-fidelity cost-aware acquisition, and TuRBO trust regions. Second, we instantiate the problem in a flag-gated harness over a production coding agent and report a controlled four-round manual-tuning case study against a fixed task suite and an end-to-end HARBOR run. The formulation itself is task-class agnostic: the configuration space, reward correction, acquisition, and safety check apply to any agent harness with a bounded flag space and a reproducible task suite.

In controllable generation tasks, flexibly manipulating the generated images to attain a desired appearance or structure based on a single input image cue remains a critical and longstanding challenge. Achieving this requires the effective decoupling of key attributes within the input image data, aiming to get representations accurately. Previous research has predominantly concentrated on disentangling image attributes within feature space. However, the complex distribution present in real-world data often makes the application of such decoupling algorithms to other datasets challenging. Moreover, the granularity of control over feature encoding frequently fails to meet specific task requirements. Upon scrutinizing the characteristics of various generative models, we have observed that the input sensitivity and dynamic evolution properties of the diffusion model can be effectively fused with the explicit decomposition operation in pixel space. This integration enables the image processing operations performed in pixel space for a specific feature distribution of the input image, and can achieve the desired control effect in the generated results. Therefore, we propose FilterPrompt, an approach to enhance the model control effect. It can be universally applied to any diffusion model, allowing users to adjust the representation of specific image features in accordance with task requirements, thereby facilitating more precise and controllable generation outcomes. In particular, our designed experiments demonstrate that the FilterPrompt optimizes feature correlation, mitigates content conflicts during the generation process, and enhances the model's control capability.

To enhance controllability in text-to-image generation, ControlNet introduces image-based control signals, while ControlNet++ improves pixel-level cycle consistency between generated images and the input control signal. To avoid the prohibitive cost of back-propagating through the sampling process, ControlNet++ optimizes only low-noise timesteps (e.g., t < 200) using a single-step approximation, which not only ignores the contribution of high-noise timesteps but also introduces additional approximation errors. A straightforward alternative for optimizing controllability across all timesteps is Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), a fine-tuning method that increases model preference for more controllable images (I^{w}) over less controllable ones (I^{l}). However, due to uncertainty in generative models, it is difficult to ensure that win--lose image pairs differ only in controllability while keeping other factors, such as image quality, fixed. To address this, we propose performing preference learning over control conditions rather than generated images. Specifically, we construct winning and losing control signals, c^{w} and c^{l}, and train the model to prefer c^{w}. This method, which we term Condition Preference Optimization (CPO), eliminates confounding factors and yields a low-variance training objective. Our approach theoretically exhibits lower contrastive loss variance than DPO and empirically achieves superior results. Moreover, CPO requires less computation and storage for dataset curation. Extensive experiments show that CPO significantly improves controllability over the state-of-the-art ControlNet++ across multiple control types: over 10% error rate reduction in segmentation, 70--80% in human pose, and consistent 2--5% reductions in edge and depth maps.

ControlNet has enabled detailed spatial control in text-to-image diffusion models by incorporating additional visual conditions such as depth or edge maps. However, its effectiveness heavily depends on the availability of visual conditions that are precisely aligned with the generation goal specified by text prompt-a requirement that often fails in practice, especially for uncommon or imaginative scenes. For example, generating an image of a cat cooking in a specific pose may be infeasible due to the lack of suitable visual conditions. In contrast, structurally similar cues can often be found in more common settings-for instance, poses of humans cooking are widely available and can serve as rough visual guides. Unfortunately, existing ControlNet models struggle to use such loosely aligned visual conditions, often resulting in low text fidelity or visual artifacts. To address this limitation, we propose SemanticControl, a training-free method for effectively leveraging misaligned but semantically relevant visual conditions. Our approach adaptively suppresses the influence of the visual condition where it conflicts with the prompt, while strengthening guidance from the text. The key idea is to first run an auxiliary denoising process using a surrogate prompt aligned with the visual condition (e.g., "a human playing guitar" for a human pose condition) to extract informative attention masks, and then utilize these masks during the denoising of the actual target prompt (e.g., cat playing guitar). Experimental results demonstrate that our method improves performance under loosely aligned conditions across various conditions, including depth maps, edge maps, and human skeletons, outperforming existing baselines. Our code is available at https://mung3477.github.io/semantic-control.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

Inference-time controllable generation is essential for real-world applications of unconditional diffusion models. However, most existing techniques focus on individual samples, struggling in applications that require the sample population to follow specific attribute distributions (e.g., demographic balance or semantic proportions). We formalize this setting as the inference-time attribute distributional alignment problem for pretrained unconditional diffusion models. To address this, we cast inference-time attribute distributional alignment as an optimal control problem over the reverse diffusion process, viewing the process as the rollout of a dynamical system and augmenting it with additive, time-dependent perturbations as control. We solve for the perturbations using an optimal-control-based algorithm to optimize a differentiable distribution-matching objective while penalizing control effort to preserve data fidelity. Experiment results in image generation demonstrate that our proposed plug-and-play approach can better align attribute distributions to diverse and flexible test-time targets compared to baselines, without retraining or finetuning the pretrained diffusion model.

As LLM benchmarks saturate, the evaluation community has pursued two strategies to increase difficulty: escalating knowledge demands (GPQA, HLE) or removing knowledge entirely in favor of abstract reasoning (ARC-AGI). The first conflates memorization with capability; the second divorces reasoning from the practical contexts in which it matters. We take a different approach. The Grounded Integration Measure (GIM) is a benchmark of 820 original problems (615 public, 205 private) where difficulty comes from integration; individual problems require coordinating multiple cognitive operations (constraint satisfaction, state tracking, epistemic vigilance, audience calibration) over broadly accessible knowledge, so that reasoning stays grounded in realistic tasks without being gated on specialized expertise. Each problem is an original expert-authored composition, majority with rubric-decomposed scoring (median 6 independently judged criteria). A balanced public--private split provides built-in contamination diagnostic. We calibrate a continuous response 2-parameter logistic (2PL) IRT model over >200k prompt-response pairs across 28 models, producing robust ability estimates that correctly order test-configurations even when raw accuracy is distorted by errors or missing data, addressing a common challenge in benchmark reporting. Using this framework, we present a comprehensive leaderboard spanning 22 models and 47 test-configurations (unique model, thinking-level pairs), and conduct what is to our knowledge the most extensive published study of how test-time compute trades off against model capability on a fixed benchmark: 11 models swept across 35 test-configurations. We observe that within-family configuration choices, such as thinking budget and quantization, matter as much as model selection. We release the evaluation framework, calibrated IRT parameters, and all public problems.

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, intersection-over-union control in instance segmentation, and the simultaneous control of the type-1 error of outlier detection and confidence set coverage in classification or regression. Our main insight is to reframe the risk-control problem as multiple hypothesis testing, enabling techniques and mathematical arguments different from those in the previous literature. We use the framework to provide new calibration methods for several core machine learning tasks, with detailed worked examples in computer vision and tabular medical data.

Optimal configuration of the learning rate (LR) is a fundamental yet formidable challenge in large-scale pre-training. Given the stringent trade-off between training costs and model performance, the pivotal question is whether the optimal LR can be accurately extrapolated from low-cost experiments. In this paper, we formalize this investigation into two distinct research paradigms: Fitting and Transfer. Within the Fitting Paradigm, we innovatively introduce a Scaling Law for search factor, effectively reducing the search complexity from O(n^3) to O(n*C_D*C_η) via predictive modeling. Within the Transfer Paradigm, we extend the principles of μTransfer to the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture, broadening its applicability to encompass model depth, weight decay, and token horizons. By pushing the boundaries of existing hyperparameter research in terms of scale, we conduct a comprehensive comparison between these two paradigms. Our empirical results challenge the scalability of the widely adopted μ Transfer in large-scale pre-training scenarios. Furthermore, we provide a rigorous analysis through the dual lenses of training stability and feature learning to elucidate the underlying reasons why module-wise parameter tuning underperforms in large-scale settings. This work offers systematic practical guidelines and a fresh theoretical perspective for optimizing industrial-level pre-training.

Equivariance theory predicts that an architectural symmetry prior reduces sample complexity by a factor of |G|; this is widely cited but rarely measured as a scaling law with controls that separate the prior from its confounds. On a controlled C_n-symmetric task, we report three findings. First, a wrong-group control with identical orbit size and matched compute is worse than no constraint (joint pairwise CI [+0.79, +3.26] excludes zero, robust across estimators); misaligned constraint is actively harmful, not merely unhelpful. Second, an augmentation baseline equipped with test-time orbit averaging matches the equivariant model exactly -- bit-identical per-epoch validation curves across matched cells -- so the architecture-vs-augmentation gap is conditional on asymmetric test-time computation, not unconditional. Third, the relative exchange rate beta_diff = 1.28 is consistent in sign and order of magnitude with the theoretical 1.0 (single-level CI [+0.92, +2.05]); the more conservative two-level bootstrap (seeds x group sizes) widens this to [-0.63, +1.72], including zero, and a finer-N replication on a sqrt(2)-spaced grid is inconclusive (point estimate -0.82). The methodological contributions -- the relative-rate estimator that cancels the shared-difficulty confound, the wrong-group control, and a pre-specified failure taxonomy -- transfer to any inductive bias whose strength can be parameterised. Honest scoping: the primary estimator beta_diff was adopted post-hoc after the initial analysis revealed a positive-slope identifiability problem; the design was never externally pre-registered; and the headline number rests on an OLS slope over seven group sizes on a coarse N grid. This is an exploratory study, not a confirmatory measurement; the wrong-group result is the cleanest finding and the one we report with the most confidence. A registered replication on fresh seeds is future work.

A widely used technique for improving policies is success conditioning, in which one collects trajectories, identifies those that achieve a desired outcome, and updates the policy to imitate the actions taken along successful trajectories. This principle appears under many names -- rejection sampling with SFT, goal-conditioned RL, Decision Transformers -- yet what optimization problem it solves, if any, has remained unclear. We prove that success conditioning exactly solves a trust-region optimization problem, maximizing policy improvement subject to a χ^2 divergence constraint whose radius is determined automatically by the data. This yields an identity: relative policy improvement, the magnitude of policy change, and a quantity we call action-influence -- measuring how random variation in action choices affects success rates -- are exactly equal at every state. Success conditioning thus emerges as a conservative improvement operator. Exact success conditioning cannot degrade performance or induce dangerous distribution shift, but when it fails, it does so observably, by hardly changing the policy at all. We apply our theory to the common practice of return thresholding, showing this can amplify improvement, but at the cost of potential misalignment with the true objective.

Controllable layout generation aims at synthesizing plausible arrangement of element bounding boxes with optional constraints, such as type or position of a specific element. In this work, we try to solve a broad range of layout generation tasks in a single model that is based on discrete state-space diffusion models. Our model, named LayoutDM, naturally handles the structured layout data in the discrete representation and learns to progressively infer a noiseless layout from the initial input, where we model the layout corruption process by modality-wise discrete diffusion. For conditional generation, we propose to inject layout constraints in the form of masking or logit adjustment during inference. We show in the experiments that our LayoutDM successfully generates high-quality layouts and outperforms both task-specific and task-agnostic baselines on several layout tasks.

Agent harnesses (the system prompt, tool set, execution hooks, and context-management scaffolding around a model) are a critical determinant of agentic task success. Automated harness evolution can enable smaller models to perform well on domain-specific tasks at a fraction of frontier-model cost. Since both the harness and model weights shape behavior, we ask how harness evolution and lightweight fine-tuning should be combined. Across seven enterprise agent tasks, we first evolve a harness with the weaker model, then find that a stronger expert often uses it more effectively, suggesting expert supervision could close the remaining gap. However, training the weaker model on the expert's complete trajectories under the evolved harness backfires: performance regresses on all seven tasks by 4 to 30 points across Qwen3-Coder and Gemma 4, even though the same procedure helps under the unevolved harness. Our analysis shows that imitation transfers knowledge and increases scaffold usage, but disrupts model-harness fit: the weaker model adopts the expert's planning strategy without the competence to execute it and no longer matches the harness evolved around its native planning style. We therefore develop an on-policy expert-correction pipeline, automated by a meta-level MLE agent, that localizes the failing turn in the weaker model's own rollout and asks the expert to rewrite only that turn. This preserves the model's planning style and combines the gains of harness evolution and model adaptation. Our results identify and resolve a source of contention between harness and weight updates, yielding a compatibility-preserving recipe for economical co-evolution on domain-specific enterprise tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly capable of following instructions and complex reasoning, making prompting a flexible interface for adapting models without parameter updates. Yet prompt design remains labor-intensive and highly sensitive to formatting, phrasing, and instruction order, motivating automated prompt optimization methods that reduce manual effort while preserving inference-time flexibility. However, existing methods often search over prompt candidates or use fixed critique-refine pipelines driven by individual examples or small batches, limiting their ability to capture systematic error patterns and make targeted edits grounded in failure history. We propose Reflective Prompt Tuning (RPT), a framework that uses LLM function calling to simulate the iterative workflow of human prompt engineers. An LLM optimizer calls a diagnostic function that evaluates the target model over an entire optimization set, summarizes recurring failure modes, and returns a structured diagnostic report. The optimizer uses this report, together with an accumulated memory of prior reports, to revise the prompt for the next iteration. RPT further supports confidence-aware optimization by using calibration signals in diagnostic feedback and final prompt selection. Across three reasoning tasks, RPT improves over initial prompts by up to 12.9 points, remains competitive with state of the art, and improves confidence calibration. Our analyses show that RPT is especially effective on multi-hop and mathematical reasoning, producing targeted prompt revisions that align with diagnosed failure patterns and lead to gains in task performance and calibration.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Breakthroughs in machine learning are rapidly changing science and society, yet our fundamental understanding of this technology has lagged far behind. Indeed, one of the central tenets of the field, the bias-variance trade-off, appears to be at odds with the observed behavior of methods used in the modern machine learning practice. The bias-variance trade-off implies that a model should balance under-fitting and over-fitting: rich enough to express underlying structure in data, simple enough to avoid fitting spurious patterns. However, in the modern practice, very rich models such as neural networks are trained to exactly fit (i.e., interpolate) the data. Classically, such models would be considered over-fit, and yet they often obtain high accuracy on test data. This apparent contradiction has raised questions about the mathematical foundations of machine learning and their relevance to practitioners. In this paper, we reconcile the classical understanding and the modern practice within a unified performance curve. This "double descent" curve subsumes the textbook U-shaped bias-variance trade-off curve by showing how increasing model capacity beyond the point of interpolation results in improved performance. We provide evidence for the existence and ubiquity of double descent for a wide spectrum of models and datasets, and we posit a mechanism for its emergence. This connection between the performance and the structure of machine learning models delineates the limits of classical analyses, and has implications for both the theory and practice of machine learning.

A coding agent combines a model with a harness, which decides what the model sees, which tools it can use, and how the work continues. We ask whether changing the harness changes the result when the model and task stay fixed. We compare two configurations of the same harness on three coding benchmarks. The control supplies the full conversation in time order, while the treatment keeps the same record but mechanically shortens older tool results as the context fills and responds to repeated or stalled work. Under tight context, the treatment raises mean per-task fail-to-pass fraction (F2PF) in all three pressure comparisons and increases complete solutions on SWE-bench Verified and SWE-bench Pro. The tight-window Verified comparison uses 169 tasks, a 20,480-token window, and a fixed 480-second attempt endpoint; on this cohort, treatment raises mean per-task F2PF from 28 percent to 49 percent and complete solutions from 43 to 72. Without model-specific retuning, the same frozen treatment also raises both endpoints on the same cohort for three additional models with different designs. In the wide-window Qwen3.6 comparisons, observed arm outcomes are close on Verified and Pro, while FeatureBench retains a higher mean per-task F2PF under treatment. On the wide-window Verified cohort, treatment also serves fewer prompt tokens per turn. Because changing the harness changed what unchanged model weights could accomplish, coding-agent evaluations should treat the model and harness together as the tested solver.

Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.

LLM search agents increasingly rely on tools at inference time, but their trajectories are often constrained by hard limits on both tool calls and generated tokens. Under such dual budgets, better answers require not only stronger models, but also explicit control over which search action should receive the next budget unit and when the accumulated evidence is sufficient to commit a final answer. We study this problem in multi-hop question answering (QA) and formulate it as two-stage inference-time budget control. At search time, our controller assigns each feasible action a task-level Value-of-Information (VOI) score, defined as an operational estimate of marginal task value per unit budget under the current search state and remaining dual budget, and uses this score to choose among retrieval, decomposition, and answer commitment. After search, a selective evidence-grounded finalizer compares the trajectory answer with a refined candidate and rewrites only when the residual error appears to be a low-risk answer-form error. Across four multi-hop QA benchmarks, three LLM backbones, and four budget levels, the method yields positive aggregate gains over four audited baselines under the same hard dual-budget protocol. Ablations show that search-time budget control, especially budget-dependent penalty, provides the main performance gain, while answer-time control helps mainly when the retrieval path is already adequate. These results suggest that inference-time budget control for LLM search agents should govern both how budget is spent during search and how the final answer is committed.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

In many binary classification applications such as disease diagnosis and spam detection, practitioners often face great needs to control type I errors (i.e., the conditional probability of misclassifying a class 0 observation as class 1) so that it remains below a desired threshold. To address this need, the Neyman-Pearson (NP) classification paradigm is a natural choice; it minimizes type II error (i.e., the conditional probability of misclassifying a class 1 observation as class 0) while enforcing an upper bound, α, on the type I error. Although the NP paradigm has a century-long history in hypothesis testing, it has not been well recognized and implemented in classification schemes. Common practices that directly limit the empirical type I error to no more than α do not satisfy the type I error control objective because the resulting classifiers are still likely to have type I errors much larger than α. As a result, the NP paradigm has not been properly implemented for many classification scenarios in practice. In this work, we develop the first umbrella algorithm that implements the NP paradigm for all scoring-type classification methods, including popular methods such as logistic regression, support vector machines and random forests. Powered by this umbrella algorithm, we propose a novel graphical tool for NP classification methods: NP receiver operating characteristic (NP-ROC) bands, motivated by the popular receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. NP-ROC bands will help choose α in a data adaptive way and compare different NP classifiers. We demonstrate the use and properties of the NP umbrella algorithm and NP-ROC bands, available in the R package nproc, through simulation and real data case studies.

The performance of an algorithm often critically depends on its parameter configuration. While a variety of automated algorithm configuration methods have been proposed to relieve users from the tedious and error-prone task of manually tuning parameters, there is still a lot of untapped potential as the learned configuration is static, i.e., parameter settings remain fixed throughout the run. However, it has been shown that some algorithm parameters are best adjusted dynamically during execution, e.g., to adapt to the current part of the optimization landscape. Thus far, this is most commonly achieved through hand-crafted heuristics. A promising recent alternative is to automatically learn such dynamic parameter adaptation policies from data. In this article, we give the first comprehensive account of this new field of automated dynamic algorithm configuration (DAC), present a series of recent advances, and provide a solid foundation for future research in this field. Specifically, we (i) situate DAC in the broader historical context of AI research; (ii) formalize DAC as a computational problem; (iii) identify the methods used in prior-art to tackle this problem; (iv) conduct empirical case studies for using DAC in evolutionary optimization, AI planning, and machine learning.

Recently introduced ControlNet has the ability to steer the text-driven image generation process with geometric input such as human 2D pose, or edge features. While ControlNet provides control over the geometric form of the instances in the generated image, it lacks the capability to dictate the visual appearance of each instance. We present FineControlNet to provide fine control over each instance's appearance while maintaining the precise pose control capability. Specifically, we develop and demonstrate FineControlNet with geometric control via human pose images and appearance control via instance-level text prompts. The spatial alignment of instance-specific text prompts and 2D poses in latent space enables the fine control capabilities of FineControlNet. We evaluate the performance of FineControlNet with rigorous comparison against state-of-the-art pose-conditioned text-to-image diffusion models. FineControlNet achieves superior performance in generating images that follow the user-provided instance-specific text prompts and poses compared with existing methods. Project webpage: https://samsunglabs.github.io/FineControlNet-project-page

A popular approach for sequential decision-making is to perform simulator-based search guided with Machine Learning (ML) methods like policy learning. On the other hand, model-relaxation heuristics can guide the search effectively if a full declarative model is available. In this work, we consider how a practitioner can improve ML-based black-box planning on settings where a complete symbolic model is not available. We show that specifying an incomplete STRIPS model that describes only part of the problem enables the use of relaxation heuristics. Our findings on several planning domains suggest that this is an effective way to improve ML-based black-box planning beyond collecting more data or tuning ML architectures.

Consistency Models (CMs) have showed a promise in creating visual content efficiently and with high quality. However, the way to add new conditional controls to the pretrained CMs has not been explored. In this technical report, we consider alternative strategies for adding ControlNet-like conditional control to CMs and present three significant findings. 1) ControlNet trained for diffusion models (DMs) can be directly applied to CMs for high-level semantic controls but struggles with low-level detail and realism control. 2) CMs serve as an independent class of generative models, based on which ControlNet can be trained from scratch using Consistency Training proposed by Song et al. 3) A lightweight adapter can be jointly optimized under multiple conditions through Consistency Training, allowing for the swift transfer of DMs-based ControlNet to CMs. We study these three solutions across various conditional controls, including edge, depth, human pose, low-resolution image and masked image with text-to-image latent consistency models.

Scaling laws are used to plan multi-million-dollar training runs, but fitting those laws can itself cost millions. In modern large-scale workflows, assembling a sufficiently informative set of pilot experiments is already a major budget-allocation problem rather than a routine preprocessing step. We formulate scaling-law fitting as budget-aware sequential experimental design: given a finite pool of runnable experiments with heterogeneous costs, choose which runs to execute so as to maximize extrapolation accuracy in a high-cost target region. We then propose an uncertainty-aware method for sequentially allocating experimental budget toward the runs most useful for target-region extrapolation. Across a diverse benchmark of scaling-law tasks, our method consistently outperforms classical design-based baselines, and often approaches the performance of fitting on the full experimental set while using only about 10% of the total training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/PlanarG/active-sl.

Fine-tuning pre-trained models has been ubiquitously proven to be effective in a wide range of NLP tasks. However, fine-tuning the whole model is parameter inefficient as it always yields an entirely new model for each task. Currently, many research works propose to only fine-tune a small portion of the parameters while keeping most of the parameters shared across different tasks. These methods achieve surprisingly good performance and are shown to be more stable than their corresponding fully fine-tuned counterparts. However, such kind of methods is still not well understood. Some natural questions arise: How does the parameter sparsity lead to promising performance? Why is the model more stable than the fully fine-tuned models? How to choose the tunable parameters? In this paper, we first categorize the existing methods into random approaches, rule-based approaches, and projection-based approaches based on how they choose which parameters to tune. Then, we show that all of the methods are actually sparse fine-tuned models and conduct a novel theoretical analysis of them. We indicate that the sparsity is actually imposing a regularization on the original model by controlling the upper bound of the stability. Such stability leads to better generalization capability which has been empirically observed in a lot of recent research works. Despite the effectiveness of sparsity grounded by our theory, it still remains an open problem of how to choose the tunable parameters. To better choose the tunable parameters, we propose a novel Second-order Approximation Method (SAM) which approximates the original problem with an analytically solvable optimization function. The tunable parameters are determined by directly optimizing the approximation function. The experimental results show that our proposed SAM model outperforms many strong baseline models and it also verifies our theoretical analysis.

Language model agents are post-trained and deployed through a harness, the prompts, tools, and control logic that present a task to the model and execute its outputs. Harnesses are often revised and judged by how an already trained model performs under them, which assumes that what the model learned under one harness carries over to the next. We ask what a policy learns from its harness and what survives when the harness changes. Under KL-regularized control, we show that the log odds of an optimal policy recover how strongly its harness favors each action over the others, so a trained policy carries the preferences of its harness. Deployed return then equals the ceiling of the harness, the best return it offers, minus the mismatch of the policy, the return lost to its own suboptimal decisions. Training changes only the mismatch, while changing the harness moves both terms. Comparing harnesses with a fixed model therefore mixes what each harness offers with how well that model uses it. In MiniWoB++, post-training makes a model's preferences specific to its training harness. Reversing the order of the observation fields leaves every optimal decision unchanged yet lowers a trained model's success from 85.0% to 19.2%. Conversely, every new harness that a fixed-model comparison rejects but that raises the ceiling outperforms the original agent after further training under it, and ceiling and mismatch measured beforehand predict these gains. For coding-agent harnesses on Terminal-Bench Lite, ceiling minus mismatch estimated with a stronger model as a stand-in for the optimum reproduces the accuracy ranking, while either term alone does not. Code is available at https://github.com/2020-qqtcg/HRP.

Whether a language model has improved itself is increasingly judged not by mean accuracy but by which individual problems it gains and loses. Tracking these transitions means differencing two noisy estimates, leaving them vulnerable to measurement artifacts. Auditing three rounds of rank-32 LoRA self-training on Qwen3-8B against a frozen control pushed through the identical pipeline, we identify seven measurement failures, each of which inverts a reported finding when its control is absent. Several are standard practice. A ledger built on a single greedy decode manufactures capability changes on an untrained model, largely an artifact of inference batching; the expansion statistic separating acquisition from sharpening assigns that same model a rate of 0.280. The natural threshold repair does not survive replication: estimated across the frozen comparisons such a design already contains, its null stays non-zero. We replace it with a per-problem exact test against a pooled baseline under false-discovery-rate control, which detects nothing on any held-out replicate and is unchanged under the multiple-testing rule, error rate and pool size. Applied to a ladder of arms matched in stream, volume and evaluation, the audit finds that external distillation improves problems the base model rarely reaches while three forms of self-training do not; a regression rejects this asymmetry as a by-product of distillation's larger overall gain (p < 10^{-8}). On the far smaller set of problems the base model never reaches, the evidence is inconclusive, while self-training corrupts problems solved at baseline at rates well above the measured floor. Transition-level auditing therefore requires a separately measured null for every statistic it reports: nulls that cost no new experiments, built from baseline replicates a multi-arm study already owns, though not from as few as most possess.

Agent performance depends jointly on the model parameters and the executable harness code that manages context and control flow. Optimizing either component in isolation can leave the system bottlenecked by its frozen counterpart: weight updates can change which harness is effective, while harness updates can change which model capabilities are exposed. Existing joint-adaptation methods optimize weights and textual prompts but leave the broader harness fixed. We propose Weight-Harness Alternating LEarning (WHALE), a simple recipe that alternates two phases: updating the model under the current harness, then searching for a better harness under the updated model. We instantiate these two phases with online rejection-sampling fine-tuning and Meta-Harness, respectively. When to switch is a key design choice: to separate real improvements from noise without over-optimizing against a changing counterpart, WHALE uses either fixed phase durations or an adaptive patience rule over training signals. Using Qwen3.5-2B/4B agents across three domains (search question answering, mathematical reasoning, and chess puzzles), WHALE outperforms weight-only, harness-only, and Fast-Slow Training by 4.15-24.38 percentage points in best mean@8 accuracy. Either component can be the bottleneck: harness search matches peak weight-only accuracy with far fewer rollouts in SearchQA, but improves math accuracy only after a weight update. Small interleaved updates also outperform stagewise weight-then-harness optimization in accuracy and rollout cost. The code is available at https://github.com/krafton-ai/WHALE.

Algorithm configuration (AC) is concerned with the automated search of the most suitable parameter configuration of a parametrized algorithm. There is currently a wide variety of AC problem variants and methods proposed in the literature. Existing reviews do not take into account all derivatives of the AC problem, nor do they offer a complete classification scheme. To this end, we introduce taxonomies to describe the AC problem and features of configuration methods, respectively. We review existing AC literature within the lens of our taxonomies, outline relevant design choices of configuration approaches, contrast methods and problem variants against each other, and describe the state of AC in industry. Finally, our review provides researchers and practitioners with a look at future research directions in the field of AC.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Instance-specific algorithm configuration and algorithm portfolios have been shown to offer significant improvements over single algorithm approaches in a variety of application domains. In the SAT and CSP domains algorithm portfolios have consistently dominated the main competitions in these fields for the past five years. For a portfolio approach to be effective there are two crucial conditions that must be met. First, there needs to be a collection of complementary solvers with which to make a portfolio. Second, there must be a collection of problem features that can accurately identify structural differences between instances. This paper focuses on the latter issue: feature representation, because, unlike SAT, not every problem has well-studied features. We employ the well-known SATzilla feature set, but compute alternative sets on different SAT encodings of CSPs. We show that regardless of what encoding is used to convert the instances, adequate structural information is maintained to differentiate between problem instances, and that this can be exploited to make an effective portfolio-based CSP solver.

Aligned language models gate behaviors such as refusal and language routing through sparse feed forward neurons, yet no theory predicts when a single neuron intervention controls a behavior coherently rather than collapsing the output. We develop a budget normalized control window framework for single neuron steering. A dose along one write direction reduces to one control coordinate: the alignment between the residual stream and the write, driven along a universal saturation curve in units of a coherence budget set by the residual norm divided by the write norm. Coherent control exists when a behavior trigger lies below the collapse ceiling. The same coordinate governs benign mode switches and refusal; the ceiling follows from weights and one generic forward pass, while triggers are measured at rollout. On fifteen held out neurons, the predicted ceiling has mean absolute error 0.14, about 0.07 in bulk layers, and the committed open or closed verdict holds on eleven against a ten of fifteen majority baseline. Closed cases expose three failure modes rather than violations: collapse before trigger, too little depth to propagate, or a normalization that caps how far one neuron can push. The law explains why local gradient attribution anti predicts control: true controllers write off the readout axis and carry a near zero first order gradient. A forward only contrastive screen made precise by the window recovers controllers that attribution misses. On refusal, the hardest case, intervention success is typed, not scalar: coherent bypass and strict actionable reach separate, so a neuron can flip refusal in fluent, on task text with no actionable content, and genuine actionable reach appears only for three of six audited Llama pivots and only at later rollout horizons. Single neuron steering is therefore a budgeted, typed audit of controllability rather than a fixed dose anecdote.

The inherent rigidity of fixed-size benchmarks makes them an inefficient tool for model evaluation. Diverse evaluation objectives, including model ranking, model selection and testing throughout development, demand varying levels of statistical power. The mismatch between fixed sample sizes and these diverse needs results in either excessive computational cost or compromised reliability - a critical concern for model evaluation. To overcome these limitations, we call for adoption of sequential testing in our field. We provide an adaptive evaluation framework, that provides a principled way to navigate the trade-off between efficiency and reliability in model evaluation. Our framework combines the established statistical paradigm of sequential testing with stopping criteria tailored to common evaluation needs such as diminishing returns detection, and minimum detectable effect size. We demonstrate its ability to adaptively manage the efficiency-reliability trade-off on the Open VLM Leaderboard, including, for example, a 80% reduction in computational cost compared to fixed-size evaluation (with a 2.5-point CI width allowance) while maintaining statistical significance.

We ask whether large language models (LLMs) can design effective algorithms for well-specified operations research (OR) problems. We study inventory control, queueing network control, and assortment optimization, using benchmark instances from recent papers in each area. We evaluate two levels of LLM use: at level 1, the model receives one problem instance and returns a solution for that instance; at level 2, it receives only the problem class description and broad parameter ranges, and returns an algorithm that maps instance parameters to solutions. Human input is minimal: we give one untuned prompt that describes the problem, and the model has access to a Python sandbox tool with a fixed compute budget. The strongest model we test, gpt-5.6-sol, matches or outperforms the best method reported in those papers on almost all evaluated instances. This holds even at level 2, where the returned algorithm is fixed before seeing the evaluation instances. Performance also improves sharply across models released less than eight months apart, suggesting that this capability is moving quickly. Thus, for the well-specified operations problems we study, a single untuned LLM query can already produce algorithms competitive with specialized methods. These results suggest that frontier LLMs can be a serious empirical baseline for algorithm design in well-specified OR problems.

A common and effective strategy for humans to improve an unsatisfactory outcome in daily life is to find a cause of this outcome and correct the cause. In this paper, we investigate whether this human improvement strategy can be applied to improving reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for alignment of language models (LMs). In particular, it is observed in the literature that LMs tuned by RLHF can still output unsatisfactory responses. This paper proposes a method to improve the unsatisfactory responses by correcting their causes. Our method has two parts. The first part proposes a post-hoc explanation method to explain why an unsatisfactory response is generated to a prompt by identifying the training data that lead to this response. We formulate this problem as a constrained combinatorial optimization problem where the objective is to find a set of training data closest to this prompt-response pair in a feature representation space, and the constraint is that the prompt-response pair can be decomposed as a convex combination of this set of training data in the feature space. We propose an efficient iterative data selection algorithm to solve this problem. The second part proposes an unlearning method that improves unsatisfactory responses to some prompts by unlearning the training data that lead to these unsatisfactory responses and, meanwhile, does not significantly degrade satisfactory responses to other prompts. Experimental results demonstrate that our algorithm can improve RLHF.

Reasoning language models have shown an uncanny ability to improve performance at test-time by ``thinking longer''-that is, by generating longer chain-of-thought sequences and hence using more compute. However, the length of their chain-of-thought reasoning is not controllable, making it impossible to allocate test-time compute to achieve a desired level of performance. We introduce Length Controlled Policy Optimization (LCPO), a simple reinforcement learning method that optimizes for accuracy and adherence to user-specified length constraints. We use LCPO to train L1, a reasoning language model that produces outputs satisfying a length constraint given in its prompt. L1's length control allows for smoothly trading off computational cost and accuracy on a wide range of tasks, and outperforms the state-of-the-art S1 method for length control. Furthermore, we uncover an unexpected short chain-of-thought capability in models trained with LCPO. For instance, our 1.5B L1 model surpasses GPT-4o at equal reasoning lengths. Overall, LCPO enables precise control over reasoning length, allowing for fine-grained allocation of test-time compute and accuracy. We release code and models at https://www.cmu-l3.github.io/l1

Fine-tuning instruct models often improves target performance while inducing behavioral drift from the reference model, which can degrade existing capabilities. Rather than treating this drift as an uncontrolled consequence of optimization, we specify a behavioral drift budget before optimization and ask how to boost the target-task performance within it. Locally, behavioral drift induces a shared geometry anchored at the reference model, with the drift budget defining a boundary within this space. In this space, drift determines distance from the reference, leaving update direction as the remaining degree of freedom. Fine-tuning updates can therefore be compared through their directional efficiency, naturally reformulating fine-tuning as a direction-selection problem. This reformulation makes a concrete prediction: changing the accessible directions can qualitatively alter the outcome of fine-tuning. We test this prediction in a stringent QA-only setting, where strong instruct models are fine-tuned only on final answers but must still generate multi-step reasoning at inference. Despite this mismatch, a coarse layer-selective probe reverses the failure of QA-only fine-tuning and reveals the existence of effective directions, with multiple neighboring configurations improving target performance while preserving reasoning and general capabilities. Across Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-14B, these directions substantially improve scientific reasoning and multilingual translation. Over more than 100 languages, the resulting models match or outperform dedicated translation systems and provide a stronger initialization for subsequent reinforcement learning. Our results suggest that fine-tuning is not just about how much a model changes, but how that change is spent. https://github.com/CONE-MT/DCO and https://huggingface.co/collections/LLaMAX/dco

We present an online method for estimating the cost of solving SAT problems. Modern SAT solvers present several challenges to estimate search cost including non-chronological backtracking, learning and restarts. Our method uses a linear model trained on data gathered at the start of search. We show the effectiveness of this method using random and structured problems. We demonstrate that predictions made in early restarts can be used to improve later predictions. We also show that we can use such cost estimations to select a solver from a portfolio.

Choosing an agent system means choosing both a language model and the harness through which it acts. We ask whether a strong model, harness, or pairing stays strong when the setting changes. We evaluate 66 configurations: four configurable harnesses (OpenHands, DeepSeek Harness, PI, and openJiuwen) paired with five models on TUA-Bench, ALE-CLI, and Terminal-Bench 4, plus the native Codex-GPT and Claude Code-Claude pairings. Model rankings reverse across harnesses. On Terminal-Bench 4, Claude leads GPT by 7.94 points in OpenHands but trails it by 30.16 points in PI. For four of the five models, the best harness changes from one benchmark to another, yet some pairings hold: openJiuwen gives Kimi its highest score on all three benchmarks, by 5.61 to 11.11 points. A model's own vendor harness is not reliably its best, and higher cost does not reliably buy a higher score. On Terminal-Bench 4, GPT scores higher under PI than under DSH at less than a quarter of the cost per task. Matched trajectories suggest why fit varies. Models start almost all repairs themselves, so much depends on whether the harness hands failures back in a form the model can use. GPT does best with PI's lean scaffold, while Kimi, which often issues malformed tool calls, does best in openJiuwen. We argue that the model, the harness, and the task should be evaluated together, and we release the harness adapters, evaluation code, and all 6,204 scored trajectories at https://github.com/liyix/finding-the-right-fit and https://huggingface.co/datasets/yixuanli97/finding-the-right-fit.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

We study the problem of constrained efficient global optimization, where both the objective and constraints are expensive black-box functions that can be learned with Gaussian processes. We propose CONFIG (CONstrained efFIcient Global Optimization), a simple and effective algorithm to solve it. Under certain regularity assumptions, we show that our algorithm enjoys the same cumulative regret bound as that in the unconstrained case and similar cumulative constraint violation upper bounds. For commonly used Matern and Squared Exponential kernels, our bounds are sublinear and allow us to derive a convergence rate to the optimal solution of the original constrained problem. In addition, our method naturally provides a scheme to declare infeasibility when the original black-box optimization problem is infeasible. Numerical experiments on sampled instances from the Gaussian process, artificial numerical problems, and a black-box building controller tuning problem all demonstrate the competitive performance of our algorithm. Compared to the other state-of-the-art methods, our algorithm significantly improves the theoretical guarantees, while achieving competitive empirical performance.

This paper proposes a novel column generation framework for combinatorial software testing. In particular, it combines Mathematical Programming and Constraint Programming in a hybrid decomposition to generate covering arrays. The approach allows generating parameterized test cases with coverage guarantees between parameter interactions of a given application. Compared to exhaustive testing, combinatorial test case generation reduces the number of tests to run significantly. Our column generation algorithm is generic and can accommodate mixed coverage arrays over heterogeneous alphabets. The algorithm is realized in practice as a cloud service and recognized as one of the five winners of the company-wide cloud application challenge at Oracle. The service is currently helping software developers from a range of different product teams in their testing efforts while exposing declarative constraint models and hybrid optimization techniques to a broader audience.

Conventional Applicant Tracking Systems (ATS) tend to be inflexible keyword-matchers, and deny gifted candidates a role due to a few minor semantic mismatches. This article describes a new two-step process to design a more refined resume evaluation model based on a small language model (<600M parameters) that is finetuned using GRPO on a custom reward function. To begin with, Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) was used to build a solid baseline model. Second, this SFT model was also optimized with the help of Reinforcement Learning (RL) through GRPO under the guidance of a new, multi-component reward function that can holistically assess candidates beyond simple keyword matching. We indicate that the RL application presents a critical problem of reward hacking due to the initial experiments of aggressive penalties, which produces faulty, excessively negative model behaviors. We have overcome this challenge by refining the reward function repeatedly and training hyperparameters into a stable "gentle polishing process" of the reward function. Our resulting GRPO-polished model demonstrates significant real-world efficacy, achieving a final accuracy of 91% on unseen test data. The model shows a strong ability to correctly identify qualified candidates (recall of 0.85 for the 'SELECTED' class) while also showing exceptional precision (1.0), confirming its reliability. These results indicate that a properly executed, two-step fine-tuning procedure can indeed effectively refine a small language model to be able to conduct fine-tuned and human-like candidate scoring, overcoming the drawbacks of both traditional ATS and naive RL usage.

Increasing the thinking budget of AI models can significantly improve accuracy, but not all questions warrant the same amount of reasoning. Users may prefer to allocate different amounts of reasoning effort depending on how they value output quality versus latency and cost. To leverage this tradeoff effectively, users need fine-grained control over the amount of thinking used for a particular query, but few approaches enable such control. Existing methods require users to specify the absolute number of desired tokens, but this requires knowing the difficulty of the problem beforehand to appropriately set the token budget for a query. To address these issues, we propose Adaptive Effort Control, a self-adaptive reinforcement learning method that trains models to use a user-specified fraction of tokens relative to the current average chain-of-thought length for each query. This approach eliminates dataset- and phase-specific tuning while producing better cost-accuracy tradeoff curves compared to standard methods. Users can dynamically adjust the cost-accuracy trade-off through a continuous effort parameter specified at inference time. We observe that the model automatically learns to allocate resources proportionally to the task difficulty and, across model scales ranging from 1.5B to 32B parameters, our approach enables a 2-3x reduction in chain-of-thought length while maintaining or improving performance relative to the base model used for RL training.

Agents built around large language models continually accumulate interaction trajectories during deployment, yet their behavior typically remains fixed. Beyond updating model weights, these trajectories can improve the agent harness that constructs context, mediates tools, validates actions, and recovers execution. We introduce Harness-R1, the first method, to our knowledge, that makes failure-conditioned, lifecycle-wide editing of an existing executable runtime a learned capability. It post-trains a dedicated harness engineer with online reinforcement learning so that its edits are optimized for the realized task success they produce, rather than proposed by a fixed editor. A separate 9B engineer converts batches of target-agent failures into validated executable patches; fresh same-batch reruns of the frozen target provide outcome rewards, so training updates only the engineer. Cold-start supervised fine-tuning initializes this editing policy, which is then trained online with group-relative policy optimization. Across WebShop, ALFWorld, and DBBench, Harness-R1 raises vanilla Qwen3.5-9B success from 44.3% to 53.6% (+9.3 percentage points). After direct target-agent fine-tuning, a target-specific engineer raises the average further from 59.2% to 64.2% (+5.0 points); because these gains hold both before and after fine-tuning the target, Harness-R1 points toward co-evolving the harness engineer and the target agent.

Test-time scaling improves LLM reasoning by generating and aggregating multiple candidate answers, yet many pipelines use fixed per-query budgets that spend the same compute on easy and difficult prompts. These fixed budgets are also difficult to inspect because they do not explain why a given prompt receives a particular number of samples. We propose adaptive} test-time scaling with a lightweight fuzzy controller that maps interpretable signals, including estimated prompt complexity and model confidence, to a per-query sampling budget. The controller assigns fewer samples to easier or more confident prompts and more samples to harder or less certain prompts, making inference-time compute inspectable rather than fixed or opaque. We evaluate under a fair-alignment protocol with matched decoding settings and controlled answer selection, and compare against best-of-N, compute-aware scaling, and self-certainty-based baselines on question-answering and mathematical reasoning tasks. Across models and datasets, adaptive fuzzy control improves over several standard baselines and remains close to a selector-matched full-budget control while reducing the average number of samples. These findings suggest that interpretable adaptive sampling is a practical direction for more efficient test-time reasoning in large language models.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

A modified LAB algorithm is introduced in this paper. It builds upon the original LAB algorithm (Reddy et al. 2023), which is a socio-inspired algorithm that models competitive and learning behaviours within a group, establishing hierarchical roles. The proposed algorithm incorporates the roulette wheel approach and a reduction factor introducing inter-group competition and iteratively narrowing down the sample space. The algorithm is validated by solving the benchmark test problems from CEC 2005 and CEC 2017. The solutions are validated using standard statistical tests such as two-sided and pairwise signed rank Wilcoxon test and Friedman rank test. The algorithm exhibited improved and superior robustness as well as search space exploration capabilities. Furthermore, a Clustering-Based Search Space Reduction (C-SSR) method is proposed, making the algorithm capable to solve constrained problems. The C-SSR method enables the algorithm to identify clusters of feasible regions, satisfying the constraints and contributing to achieve the optimal solution. This method demonstrates its effectiveness as a potential alternative to traditional constraint handling techniques. The results obtained using the Modified LAB algorithm are then compared with those achieved by other recent metaheuristic algorithms.

Harness development plays a crucial role in building capable AI agents. Recent approaches improve harnesses through recursive self-improvement (RSI), but their performance gains often come with higher execution costs. We introduce HarnessPro, a label-free method for evolving harnesses to improve task performance while reducing execution cost. In this setting, candidate harnesses are evaluated using LLM-generated tests without access to ground-truth solutions or official tests. Specialized agents diagnose execution trajectories, plan updates with different performance-cost priorities, and implement them as candidate harnesses. Rather than returning a single harness, HarnessPro uses normalized weighted squared-distance selection to provide cost-focused (lite), balanced (medium), and performance-focused (heavy) harnesses for different deployment budgets. Selected harnesses enter the next iteration, where execution feedback guides further updates. Our experiments cover Terminal-Bench 2, SWE-Bench Pro, and ProgramBench, using GPT-5.5 with Codex and GLM-5.2 with Claude Code. Across these benchmarks using GPT-5.5 with Codex, the heavy mode of HarnessPro achieves an average pass-rate gain of 2.0 percentage points and an average per-task cost reduction of 26.1% relative to RHO. This advantage also holds when using GLM-5.2 with Claude Code. Code is available at https://github.com/pzs19/HarnessPro

In a controllable text generation dataset, there exist unannotated attributes that could provide irrelevant learning signals to models that use it for training and thus degrade their performance. We propose focused prefix tuning(FPT) to mitigate the problem and to enable the control to focus on the desired attribute. Experimental results show that FPT can achieve better control accuracy and text fluency than baseline models in single-attribute control tasks. In multi-attribute control tasks, FPT achieves comparable control accuracy with the state-of-the-art approach while keeping the flexibility to control new attributes without retraining existing models.

Training state-of-the-art vision models has become prohibitively expensive for researchers and practitioners. For the sake of accessibility and resource reuse, it is important to focus on adapting these models to a variety of downstream scenarios. An interesting and practical paradigm is online test-time adaptation, according to which training data is inaccessible, no labelled data from the test distribution is available, and adaptation can only happen at test time and on a handful of samples. In this paper, we investigate how test-time adaptation methods fare for a number of pre-trained models on a variety of real-world scenarios, significantly extending the way they have been originally evaluated. We show that they perform well only in narrowly-defined experimental setups and sometimes fail catastrophically when their hyperparameters are not selected for the same scenario in which they are being tested. Motivated by the inherent uncertainty around the conditions that will ultimately be encountered at test time, we propose a particularly "conservative" approach, which addresses the problem with a Laplacian Adjusted Maximum-likelihood Estimation (LAME) objective. By adapting the model's output (not its parameters), and solving our objective with an efficient concave-convex procedure, our approach exhibits a much higher average accuracy across scenarios than existing methods, while being notably faster and have a much lower memory footprint. The code is available at https://github.com/fiveai/LAME.

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between these two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately with access to a large set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more generally, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

Controlling the evolution of complex physical systems is a fundamental task across science and engineering. Classical techniques suffer from limited applicability or huge computational costs. On the other hand, recent deep learning and reinforcement learning-based approaches often struggle to optimize long-term control sequences under the constraints of system dynamics. In this work, we introduce Diffusion Physical systems Control (DiffPhyCon), a new class of method to address the physical systems control problem. DiffPhyCon excels by simultaneously minimizing both the learned generative energy function and the predefined control objectives across the entire trajectory and control sequence. Thus, it can explore globally and plan near-optimal control sequences. Moreover, we enhance DiffPhyCon with prior reweighting, enabling the discovery of control sequences that significantly deviate from the training distribution. We test our method on three tasks: 1D Burgers' equation, 2D jellyfish movement control, and 2D high-dimensional smoke control, where our generated jellyfish dataset is released as a benchmark for complex physical system control research. Our method outperforms widely applied classical approaches and state-of-the-art deep learning and reinforcement learning methods. Notably, DiffPhyCon unveils an intriguing fast-close-slow-open pattern observed in the jellyfish, aligning with established findings in the field of fluid dynamics. The project website, jellyfish dataset, and code can be found at https://github.com/AI4Science-WestlakeU/diffphycon.

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

Early in deployment, an AI search system typically operates over a frequently updated product catalog, so the available items and their properties cannot be treated as stable knowledge that can be encoded in fixed prompts or strategies. Fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, and static prompt patches fit poorly: labels are scarce, rewards drift with inventory, model releases are costly, and prompt fixes quickly stale. We present Inventory-Grounded Policy-Level Optimization (IGPO), a training-free approach for fixed AI search pipelines. IGPO separates policy from environment facts: it learns Policy Guidelines for acting on runtime inventory evidence rather than memorizing available items. Online, IGPO grounds each query by probing the inventory and constructing an inventory portrait, then injects relevant Policy Guidelines into the retrieval and selection prompts. Offline, stochastic rollouts are grouped by query -- mixed outcome groups directly yield contrastive signal, and an inventory-guided exploration loop distinguishes missed retrieval routes from cases where no matching support is found under the observed inventory evidence. Since May 2026, IGPO has been deployed in a commercial smart-assistant AI search system. A 14-day online A/B test of the complete IGPO treatment shows a 3.17% relative CTR lift and a 38.9% reduction in audited bad cases.

We describe an iterative procedure for optimizing policies, with guaranteed monotonic improvement. By making several approximations to the theoretically-justified procedure, we develop a practical algorithm, called Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO). This algorithm is similar to natural policy gradient methods and is effective for optimizing large nonlinear policies such as neural networks. Our experiments demonstrate its robust performance on a wide variety of tasks: learning simulated robotic swimming, hopping, and walking gaits; and playing Atari games using images of the screen as input. Despite its approximations that deviate from the theory, TRPO tends to give monotonic improvement, with little tuning of hyperparameters.

Harness evolution automatically optimizes the prompts, skills, tools, and orchestration code around a fixed-weight model, offering a way to improve agentic systems without updating model weights. The agent harness is iteratively optimized to achieve higher performance on the search set. But how much of this gain reflects benchmark-specific overfitting or additional inference-time compute, and how much may generalize beyond the search set? In this work, we introduce Harness-Delta Attribution (HDA), an evaluation protocol that dissects an evolution gain into artifact-driven overfitting, gains explained by test-time scaling, and the remainder, which gives an upper bound on residual generalizable improvement. We apply HDA to 11 executor models and three harness-evolution frameworks across math, coding, creativity, and agentic tasks. In 21 of these settings that show statistically significant search-set gains, we find that a large share of the improvement is explained by overfitting or test-time scaling. Specifically, among these 21 settings, overfitting and test-time scaling account for 54% and 14% of the gain on average; their combined share exceeds 50% in 14 settings. The residual and held-out transfer vary substantially across tasks, models, and frameworks. Importantly, search-set gains often fail to transfer to held-out tasks, and provide limited evidence that they will persist under practical distribution shifts. Moreover, validation-based signals are insufficient to prevent overfitting. These results motivate attribution-aware evaluation in future harness evolution research.

We propose Self-Control, a novel method utilizing suffix gradients to control the behavior of large language models (LLMs) without explicit human annotations. Given a guideline expressed in suffix string and the model's self-assessment of adherence, Self-Control computes the gradient of this self-judgment concerning the model's hidden states, directly influencing the auto-regressive generation process towards desired behaviors. To enhance efficiency, we introduce Self-Control_{prefix}, a compact module that encapsulates the learned representations from suffix gradients into a Prefix Controller, facilitating inference-time control for various LLM behaviors. Our experiments demonstrate Self-Control's efficacy across multiple domains, including emotional modulation, ensuring harmlessness, and enhancing complex reasoning. Especially, Self-Control_{prefix} enables a plug-and-play control and jointly controls multiple attributes, improving model outputs without altering model parameters or increasing inference-time costs.

Conditional visual generation has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of diffusion models (DMs), especially in tasks like control-to-image generation. However, challenges such as expensive computational cost, high inference latency, and difficulties of integration with large language models (LLMs) have necessitated exploring alternatives to DMs. This paper introduces ControlVAR, a novel framework that explores pixel-level controls in visual autoregressive (VAR) modeling for flexible and efficient conditional generation. In contrast to traditional conditional models that learn the conditional distribution, ControlVAR jointly models the distribution of image and pixel-level conditions during training and imposes conditional controls during testing. To enhance the joint modeling, we adopt the next-scale AR prediction paradigm and unify control and image representations. A teacher-forcing guidance strategy is proposed to further facilitate controllable generation with joint modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior efficacy and flexibility of ControlVAR across various conditional generation tasks against popular conditional DMs, \eg, ControlNet and T2I-Adaptor. Code: https://github.com/lxa9867/ControlVAR.

Large language model (LLM) agents have shown promising potential in coding tasks, and their performance is jointly determined by the policy model and the harness that mediates their interaction with the environment. Indeed, harness and policy are mutually reinforcing and evolving only one component is suboptimal---a harness tuned for one checkpoint may not target the failure modes of an updated policy, while policy learning remains limited to the trajectories elicited by a fixed harness. In light of this, we propose Self-HPO, a recursive self-improving framework for coding agents that alternates harness and policy optimization, using the evolving policy as its own harness proposer. Specifically, in each round, the current policy first analyzes its own failures and proposes new harness candidates (H-step). The policy is then updated through reinforcement learning (RL) under the selected harness (P-step), and hard tasks identified during training form the next harness search set, keeping harness optimization targeted to the policy's evolving failure modes. Across three coding benchmarks, Self-HPO consistently outperforms harness-only and policy-only baselines, improving Qwen3.5-35B-A3B's average resolve rate from 57.8% to 64.8%, with gains generalizing to out-of-distribution settings. Further analysis shows that both optimized components retain gains even when paired with their base counterparts, while their joint gain exceeds the sum of their individual gains. Self-HPO also improves reliability (Pass@1) and expands the capability frontier (Pass@k) over the base agent. Additionally, we show that with a stronger external model (e.g., Opus 4.8) as the harness proposer, the same framework yields a further performance boost.

We have recently witnessed a number of impressive results on hard mathematical reasoning problems with language models. At the same time, the robustness of these models has also been called into question; recent works have shown that models can rely on shallow patterns in the problem description when generating a solution. Building on the idea of behavioral testing, we propose a novel framework, which pins down the causal effect of various factors in the input, e.g., the surface form of the problem text, the operands, and math operators on the output solution. By grounding the behavioral analysis in a causal graph describing an intuitive reasoning process, we study the behavior of language models in terms of robustness and sensitivity to direct interventions in the input space. We apply our framework on a test bed of math word problems. Our analysis shows that robustness does not appear to continuously improve as a function of size, but the GPT-3 Davinci models (175B) achieve a dramatic improvement in both robustness and sensitivity compared to all other GPT variants.

Verifying the final answer of a long reasoning trace may show that the trace is wrong but it does not distinguish three cases. The problem may lie beyond the model's capability, another attempt would succeed, or one step in an otherwise recoverable trace made the trace fail. Standard hidden-state probes are trained on final-answer correctness, a label that conflates these cases. Monte Carlo rollouts distinguish the cases and locate the failing step at additional inference cost. We test the hidden states of 4B and 8B reasoning models for the failure type and the failing step and compare each probe with the strongest baseline that uses no hidden states. On incorrect 8B traces, the confidence probe, a calibrated correctness probe at a midpoint cutoff, misses 81% of cases in which a single step makes the trace unrecoverable and 47% of cases in which another attempt would succeed. A probe with a different training design over the same states reverses the ordering of these two kinds of failure, so either ordering can be read from those states. At both scales, no single tested probe locates the failing step more accurately than a rule based only on trace length, and at 4B a probe trained to predict that step fails to outperform this rule in any of 10 runs on identical traces. The confidence probe therefore indicates that an answer is wrong, but its failure-type ordering depends on its training design.

We present two different methods for estimating the cost of solving SAT problems. The methods focus on the online behaviour of the backtracking solver, as well as the structure of the problem. Modern SAT solvers present several challenges to estimate search cost including coping with nonchronological backtracking, learning and restarts. Our first method adapt an existing algorithm for estimating the size of a search tree to deal with these challenges. We then suggest a second method that uses a linear model trained on data gathered online at the start of search. We compare the effectiveness of these two methods using random and structured problems. We also demonstrate that predictions made in early restarts can be used to improve later predictions. We conclude by showing that the cost of solving a set of problems can be reduced by selecting a solver from a portfolio based on such cost estimations.

Denoising-based generative models, particularly diffusion and flow matching algorithms, have achieved remarkable success. However, aligning their output distributions with complex downstream objectives, such as human preferences, compositional accuracy, or data compressibility, remains challenging. While reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning methods, inspired by advances in RL from human feedback (RLHF) for large language models, have been adapted to these generative frameworks, current RL approaches are suboptimal for diffusion models and offer limited flexibility in controlling alignment strength after fine-tuning. In this work, we reinterpret RL fine-tuning for diffusion models through the lens of stochastic differential equations and implicit reward conditioning. We introduce Reinforcement Learning Guidance (RLG), an inference-time method that adapts Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) by combining the outputs of the base and RL fine-tuned models via a geometric average. Our theoretical analysis shows that RLG's guidance scale is mathematically equivalent to adjusting the KL-regularization coefficient in standard RL objectives, enabling dynamic control over the alignment-quality trade-off without further training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RLG consistently improves the performance of RL fine-tuned models across various architectures, RL algorithms, and downstream tasks, including human preferences, compositional control, compressibility, and text rendering. Furthermore, RLG supports both interpolation and extrapolation, thereby offering unprecedented flexibility in controlling generative alignment. Our approach provides a practical and theoretically sound solution for enhancing and controlling diffusion model alignment at inference. The source code for RLG is publicly available at the Github: https://github.com/jinluo12345/Reinforcement-learning-guidance.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.

Synthesizing optimal controllers for dynamical systems often involves solving optimization problems with hard real-time constraints. These constraints determine the class of numerical methods that can be applied: computationally expensive but accurate numerical routines are replaced by fast and inaccurate methods, trading inference time for solution accuracy. This paper provides techniques to improve the quality of optimized control policies given a fixed computational budget. We achieve the above via a hypersolvers approach, which hybridizes a differential equation solver and a neural network. The performance is evaluated in direct and receding-horizon optimal control tasks in both low and high dimensions, where the proposed approach shows consistent Pareto improvements in solution accuracy and control performance.

Yes. Can it cure doom loops? Probably not. The Gemma 4 instruction-tuned models share a reproducible failure: on long factual enumeration prompts, such as listing every episode of a TV series, the 88 IAU constellations, or the 151 original Pokemon, they collapse into repetition, either a tight verbatim loop or a list whose entries decay onto a single answer. These loops occur at rates as high as 95% and survive prompt rewording, inference-engine changes, and most sampling adjustments. In this paper we explore whether this behavior is localized enough to remove by weight edits. To localize the cause, we use per-layer ablation and per-neuron attribution, then confirm the strongest candidates with full-generation sweeps. The loops trace to a small set of MLP neurons (or, in the 26B-A4B Mixture-of-Experts model, a few routed experts) which we suppress with static weight edits. These "surgeries" can be as small as a single sign-inverted neuron (in the E2B model). The size of the effective edits grows with model scale, but in all cases, the loop patterns can be addressed at normal generation budgets while preserving general-purpose benchmark scores. However, the edits do not solve everything: we also study longer thinking budgets, where the two larger models most visibly enter doom looping, i.e. a non-convergent regime in which the model self-corrects in circles over a fact it cannot recall, exhausting the budget without committing to a final answer. We show this residual failure is reduced but not eliminated by the same edits, and argue it is fundamentally a knowledge-precision problem rather than a removable circuit; weight surgery can delete a loop, but it cannot supply a missing fact. Our results are both a feasibility demonstration, that is, evidence that a concrete generation pathology can be localized to a few parameters and edited out, and a delineation of where that approach stops.

Agent harnesses supply planning guidance, organize execution, and check completion. We study how these components affect success, erroneous acceptance, and cost in two Retail experiments and an Airline pilot in τ^2-bench. The primary comparison pairs prewritten task-specific plans (Fixed) with shuffled policy text matched in word count (Sham), isolating the contribution of guidance content. Across 265 matched cells, Fixed improves oracle-verified success by 7.17 percentage points (90\% task-clustered bootstrap interval, 1.15--13.36 points), with gains concentrated in higher-complexity tasks. A read-only terminal verifier rejects 61\% of Retail oracle-invalid episodes while withholding 17\% of correct ones, at less than one cent of additional cost per episode. Which component matters more depends on the loss assigned to erroneous acceptance: at low liability the planning gain dominates; at high liability the verifier's avoided false passes dominate---and a standalone verifier captures nearly all the false-pass benefit of the full planning-plus-verification stack at a fraction of its cost.

Sleep quality is influenced by a complex interplay of behavioral, environmental, and psychosocial factors, yet most computational studies focus mainly on predictive risk identification rather than actionable intervention design. Although machine learning models can accurately predict subjective sleep outcomes, they rarely translate predictive insights into practical intervention strategies. To address this gap, we propose a personalized predictive-prescriptive framework that integrates interpretable machine learning with mixed-integer optimization. A supervised classifier trained on survey data predicts sleep quality, while SHAP-based feature attribution quantifies the influence of modifiable factors. These importance measures are incorporated into a mixed-integer optimization model that identifies minimal and feasible behavioral adjustments, while modelling resistance to change through a penalty mechanism. The framework achieves strong predictive performance, with a test F1-score of 0.9544 and an accuracy of 0.9366. Sensitivity and Pareto analyses reveal a clear trade-off between expected improvement and intervention intensity, with diminishing returns as additional changes are introduced. At the individual level, the model generates concise recommendations, often suggesting one or two high-impact behavioral adjustments and sometimes recommending no change when expected gains are minimal. By integrating prediction, explanation, and constrained optimization, this framework demonstrates how data-driven insights can be translated into structured and personalized decision support for sleep improvement.

Harness self-evolution revises an agent's software scaffolding, including prompts, memory, workflows, and executable components, while keeping model weights fixed. We formalize a feedback-driven process in which accepted revisions persist across runs. The framework separates update targets from proposal and admission mechanisms. It distinguishes changes to interpreted state from revisions to tools and code, repository-level control logic, and plugin composition. We characterize search through evolutionary optimization and examine its reliability through continual PAC-learning. Under explicit assumptions, the analysis yields an expected generalization bound, a retention bound conditional on historical regression budgets, and a high-probability admission rule using fresh, independent validation data. We examine how persistent harness revisions affect knowledge sharing and organizational workflows, with implications for scientific reliability, physical safety, and institutional accountability. Cases from prior work illustrate model--harness co-design, distributed execution, and plugin reuse. Reliable deployment requires continual validation as task distributions and evaluators change, with independent safeguards for learning, runtime privileges, and consequential actions. We provide a comprehensive 66-page discussion of related work, theory, algorithms, evaluation, applications, and the broader impact of Harness RSI, together with continuously updated code and supplementary materials, at https://github.com/zgcagi/Harness-RSI.

ControlNet offers a powerful way to guide diffusion-based generative models, yet most implementations rely on ad-hoc heuristics to choose which network blocks to control-an approach that varies unpredictably with different tasks. To address this gap, we propose FlexControl, a novel framework that copies all diffusion blocks during training and employs a trainable gating mechanism to dynamically select which blocks to activate at each denoising step. With introducing a computation-aware loss, we can encourage control blocks only to activate when it benefit the generation quality. By eliminating manual block selection, FlexControl enhances adaptability across diverse tasks and streamlines the design pipeline, with computation-aware training loss in an end-to-end training manner. Through comprehensive experiments on both UNet (e.g., SD1.5) and DiT (e.g., SD3.0), we show that our method outperforms existing ControlNet variants in certain key aspects of interest. As evidenced by both quantitative and qualitative evaluations, FlexControl preserves or enhances image fidelity while also reducing computational overhead by selectively activating the most relevant blocks. These results underscore the potential of a flexible, data-driven approach for controlled diffusion and open new avenues for efficient generative model design.

Scientists often infer abstract procedures from specific instances of problems and use the abstractions to generate new, related instances. For example, programs encoding the formal rules and properties of a system have been useful in fields ranging from RL (procedural environments) to physics (simulation engines). These programs can be seen as functions which execute to different outputs based on their parameterizations (e.g., gridworld configuration or initial physical conditions). We introduce the term EFA (Executable Functional Abstraction) to denote such programs for math problems. EFA-like constructs have been shown to be useful for math reasoning as problem generators for stress-testing models. However, prior work has been limited to abstractions for grade-school math (whose simple rules are easy to encode in programs), while generating EFAs for advanced math has thus far required human engineering. We explore the automatic construction of EFAs for advanced math problems. We operationalize the task of automatically constructing EFAs as a program synthesis task, and develop EFAGen, which conditions an LLM on a seed math problem and its step-by-step solution to generate candidate EFA programs that are faithful to the generalized problem and solution class underlying the seed problem. Furthermore, we formalize properties any valid EFA must possess in terms of executable unit tests, and show how the tests can be used as verifiable rewards to train LLMs to become better writers of EFAs. We demonstrate that EFAs constructed by EFAGen behave rationally by remaining faithful to seed problems, produce learnable problem variations, and that EFAGen can infer EFAs across multiple diverse sources of competition-level math problems. Finally, we show downstream uses of model-written EFAs e.g. finding problem variations that are harder or easier for a learner to solve, as well as data generation.

Controllable layout generation refers to the process of creating a plausible visual arrangement of elements within a graphic design (e.g., document and web designs) with constraints representing design intentions. Although recent diffusion-based models have achieved state-of-the-art FID scores, they tend to exhibit more pronounced misalignment compared to earlier transformer-based models. In this work, we propose the LAyout Constraint diffusion modEl (LACE), a unified model to handle a broad range of layout generation tasks, such as arranging elements with specified attributes and refining or completing a coarse layout design. The model is based on continuous diffusion models. Compared with existing methods that use discrete diffusion models, continuous state-space design can enable the incorporation of differentiable aesthetic constraint functions in training. For conditional generation, we introduce conditions via masked input. Extensive experiment results show that LACE produces high-quality layouts and outperforms existing state-of-the-art baselines.

As generative models become ubiquitous, there is a critical need for fine-grained control over the generation process. Yet, while controlled generation methods from prompting to fine-tuning proliferate, a fundamental question remains unanswered: are these models truly controllable in the first place? In this work, we provide a theoretical framework to formally answer this question. Framing human-model interaction as a control process, we propose a novel algorithm to estimate the controllable sets of models in a dialogue setting. Notably, we provide formal guarantees on the estimation error as a function of sample complexity: we derive probably-approximately correct bounds for controllable set estimates that are distribution-free, employ no assumptions except for output boundedness, and work for any black-box nonlinear control system (i.e., any generative model). We empirically demonstrate the theoretical framework on different tasks in controlling dialogue processes, for both language models and text-to-image generation. Our results show that model controllability is surprisingly fragile and highly dependent on the experimental setting. This highlights the need for rigorous controllability analysis, shifting the focus from simply attempting control to first understanding its fundamental limits.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) provides the standard approach for teaching LLMs new behaviors from offline expert demonstrations. However, standard SFT uniformly fits all samples -- including those with low likelihood under the base model -- which can disproportionately drive training updates toward overfitting specific samples rather than learning the target behavior. Moreover, adapting to these unlikely samples induces substantial policy shifts that degrade prior capabilities. Existing methods mitigate this by filtering, regenerating, or down-weighting low-likelihood data. In doing so, they often suppress precisely the novel behaviors the base model has yet to learn. We propose InfoSFT, a principled weighting scheme for the SFT objective that concentrates learning signals on maximally informative, medium-confidence tokens -- those neither overly familiar to the base model nor too unlikely to cause instability. Requiring only a one-line modification to the standard token-wise loss, InfoSFT demonstrably improves generalization over vanilla SFT and likelihood-weighted baselines across math, code, and chain-of-thought tasks with diverse model families, while better preserving pre-existing capabilities.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

Methods for controlling large language models (LLMs), including local weight fine-tuning, LoRA-based adaptation, and activation-based interventions, are often studied in isolation, obscuring their connections and making comparison difficult. In this work, we present a unified view that frames these interventions as dynamic weight updates induced by a control signal, placing them within a single conceptual framework. Building on this view, we propose a unified preference-utility analysis that separates control effects into preference, defined as the tendency toward a target concept, and utility, defined as coherent and task-valid generation, and measures both on a shared log-odds scale using polarity-paired contrastive examples. Across methods, we observe a consistent trade-off between preference and utility: stronger control increases preference while predictably reducing utility. We further explain this behavior through an activation manifold perspective, in which control shifts representations along target-concept directions to enhance preference, while utility declines primarily when interventions push representations off the model's valid-generation manifold. Finally, we introduce a new steering approach SPLIT guided by this analysis that improves preference while better preserving utility. Code is available at https://github.com/zjunlp/EasyEdit/blob/main/examples/SPLIT.md.

In regression and causal inference, controlled subgroup selection aims to identify, with inferential guarantees, a subgroup (defined as a subset of the covariate space) on which the average response or treatment effect is above a given threshold. E.g., in a clinical trial, it may be of interest to find a subgroup with a positive average treatment effect. However, existing methods either lack inferential guarantees, heavily restrict the search for the subgroup, or sacrifice efficiency by naive data splitting. We propose a novel framework called chiseling that allows the analyst to interactively refine and test a candidate subgroup by iteratively shrinking it. The sole restriction is that the shrinkage direction only depends on the points outside the current subgroup, but otherwise the analyst may leverage any prior information or machine learning algorithm. Despite this flexibility, chiseling controls the probability that the discovered subgroup is null (e.g., has a non-positive average treatment effect) under minimal assumptions: for example, in randomized experiments, this inferential validity guarantee holds under only bounded moment conditions. When applied to a variety of simulated datasets and a real survey experiment, chiseling identifies substantially better subgroups than existing methods with inferential guarantees.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

The hallucination of non-existent facts by LLMs is an important problem given its widespread adoption across various applications. Previous research addresses this problem by analyzing the internal parameterized knowledge boundaries to estimate confidence. However, these studies focus on the single-problem setting and have not explored the more challenging multi-problem setting, which requires accurately answering multiple questions simultaneously. We introduce a novel method for the multi-problem setting, Multiple Answers and Confidence Stepwise Tuning (MAC-Tuning), that separates the learning of answer prediction and confidence estimation during fine-tuning on instruction data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines by up to 25\% in average precision.

Modern large reasoning models demonstrate impressive problem-solving capabilities by employing sophisticated reasoning strategies. However, they often struggle to balance efficiency and effectiveness, frequently generating unnecessarily lengthy reasoning chains for simple problems. In this work, we propose AdaCtrl, a novel framework to support both difficulty-aware adaptive reasoning budget allocation and explicit user control over reasoning depth. AdaCtrl dynamically adjusts its reasoning length based on self-assessed problem difficulty, while also allowing users to manually control the budget to prioritize either efficiency or effectiveness. This is achieved through a two-stage training pipeline: an initial cold-start fine-tuning phase to instill the ability to self-aware difficulty and adjust reasoning budget, followed by a difficulty-aware reinforcement learning (RL) stage that refines the model's adaptive reasoning strategies and calibrates its difficulty assessments based on its evolving capabilities during online training. To enable intuitive user interaction, we design explicit length-triggered tags that function as a natural interface for budget control. Empirical results show that AdaCtrl adapts reasoning length based on estimated difficulty, compared to the standard training baseline that also incorporates fine-tuning and RL, it yields performance improvements and simultaneously reduces response length by 10.06% and 12.14% on the more challenging AIME2024 and AIME2025 datasets, which require elaborate reasoning, and by 62.05% and 91.04% on the MATH500 and GSM8K datasets, where more concise responses are sufficient. Furthermore, AdaCtrl enables precise user control over the reasoning budget, allowing for tailored responses to meet specific needs.

Small language models are attractive for production deployment due to their low cost, fast inference, and ease of specialization. However, adapting them to a specific task remains a challenging engineering loop, driven not by training itself but by surrounding decisions: data curation, failure diagnosis, regression avoidance, and iteration control. We present Pioneer Agent, a closed-loop system that automates this lifecycle. In cold-start mode, given only a natural-language task description, the agent acquires data, constructs evaluation sets, and iteratively trains models by jointly optimizing data, hyperparameters, and learning strategy. In production mode, given a deployed model with labeled failures, it diagnoses error patterns, constructs targeted training data, and retrains under explicit regression constraints. To evaluate this setting, we introduce AdaptFT-Bench, a benchmark of synthetic inference logs with progressively increasing noise, designed to test the full adaptation loop: diagnosis, curriculum synthesis, retraining, and verification. Across eight cold-start benchmarks spanning reasoning, math, code generation, summarization, and classification, Pioneer Agent improves over base models by 1.6-83.8 points. On AdaptFT-Bench, it improves or preserves performance in all seven scenarios, while naive retraining degrades by up to 43 points. On two production-style deployments built from public benchmark tasks, it raises intent classification from 84.9% to 99.3% and Entity F1 from 0.345 to 0.810. Beyond performance gains, the agent often discovers effective training strategies, including chain-of-thought supervision, task-specific optimization, and quality-focused data curation, purely from downstream feedback.

Recent advancements in Unet-based diffusion models, such as ControlNet and IP-Adapter, have introduced effective spatial and subject control mechanisms. However, the DiT (Diffusion Transformer) architecture still struggles with efficient and flexible control. To tackle this issue, we propose EasyControl, a novel framework designed to unify condition-guided diffusion transformers with high efficiency and flexibility. Our framework is built on three key innovations. First, we introduce a lightweight Condition Injection LoRA Module. This module processes conditional signals in isolation, acting as a plug-and-play solution. It avoids modifying the base model weights, ensuring compatibility with customized models and enabling the flexible injection of diverse conditions. Notably, this module also supports harmonious and robust zero-shot multi-condition generalization, even when trained only on single-condition data. Second, we propose a Position-Aware Training Paradigm. This approach standardizes input conditions to fixed resolutions, allowing the generation of images with arbitrary aspect ratios and flexible resolutions. At the same time, it optimizes computational efficiency, making the framework more practical for real-world applications. Third, we develop a Causal Attention Mechanism combined with the KV Cache technique, adapted for conditional generation tasks. This innovation significantly reduces the latency of image synthesis, improving the overall efficiency of the framework. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that EasyControl achieves exceptional performance across various application scenarios. These innovations collectively make our framework highly efficient, flexible, and suitable for a wide range of tasks.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting has become central to mathematical reasoning in large language models, yet models remain brittle to early errors: a single arithmetic slip or unjustified inference typically propagates uncorrected to an incorrect final answer. We investigate whether training on intentionally flawed reasoning traces can teach models to detect and recover from such errors without degrading standard problem-solving ability. Using competition-level problems from MATH-lighteval, we generate CoT prefixes containing exactly one controlled error, either a calculation error (sign flips, dropped terms) or a reasoning error (misapplied rules, unjustified logical steps), and fine-tune Qwen3-4B with GRPO using a binary final-answer reward. Our Mixed-CoT-RL model matches standard RL on clean problems (41% vs 41%) while substantially outperforming it on problems prefilled with flawed reasoning (24% vs 19%). Notably, clean-only RL fine-tuning degrades robustness below the untuned baseline 19% vs. 20%), indicating that conventional training increases susceptibility to misleading prefills. Among error types, training on reasoning errors yields greater robustness gains than calculation errors alone, with mixed training performing best. These findings demonstrate that exposure to flawed traces during training can improve error-recovery behavior without sacrificing accuracy, suggesting a path toward more robust mathematical reasoning in LLMs.

Instruction-tuned large language models produce helpful, structured responses, but how robust is this helpfulness under trivial constraints? We show that simple lexical constraints (banning a single punctuation character or common word) cause instruction-tuned LLMs to collapse their responses, losing 14--48\% of comprehensiveness across seven models spanning five families (7B--70B, open- and closed-weight). A blinded human evaluation with 10 STEM-trained evaluators confirms genuine content loss, with information criteria degrading 1.5--2.3times more than surface criteria, a finding corroborated by over 4,100 automated pairwise comparisons (77--100\% baseline preference) across three LLM judges from two model families. Diagnostic analysis identifies this as a planning failure: two-pass generation recovers 59--96\% of response length, and linear probes on prompt representations predict response length with R^2 = 0.51--0.94 before generation begins. The same probes yield negative R^2 on base models, confirming that instruction tuning introduces the representational structure underlying the collapse. Base models show no systematic degradation under identical constraints, demonstrating that instruction tuning couples task competence to narrow surface-form templates. The effect extends to realistic deployment constraints (preamble suppression, corporate tone guidelines, legal compliance hedging, accessibility requirements) causing comparable degradation (-22\% to -34\%), with suppressing the conversational opener alone (``Certainly!'') causing 40\% collapse on our most fragile model despite restricting only the opening tokens. We further show that standard independent LLM-as-judge evaluation detects only a 3.5\% quality drop where pairwise evaluation reveals 23\%, exposing a methodological blind spot in current evaluation practice.

Spatial conditioning in pretrained text-to-image diffusion models has significantly improved fine-grained control over the structure of generated images. However, existing control adapters exhibit limited adaptability and incur high training costs when encountering novel spatial control conditions that differ substantially from the training tasks. To address this limitation, we propose Universal Few-Shot Control (UFC), a versatile few-shot control adapter capable of generalizing to novel spatial conditions. Given a few image-condition pairs of an unseen task and a query condition, UFC leverages the analogy between query and support conditions to construct task-specific control features, instantiated by a matching mechanism and an update on a small set of task-specific parameters. Experiments on six novel spatial control tasks show that UFC, fine-tuned with only 30 annotated examples of novel tasks, achieves fine-grained control consistent with the spatial conditions. Notably, when fine-tuned with 0.1% of the full training data, UFC achieves competitive performance with the fully supervised baselines in various control tasks. We also show that UFC is applicable agnostically to various diffusion backbones and demonstrate its effectiveness on both UNet and DiT architectures. Code is available at https://github.com/kietngt00/UFC.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

Automated harness optimization can substantially improve LLM agents by iteratively updating their prompts, tool interfaces, and control logic from execution feedback. However, existing methods primarily optimize how the harness is updated while largely fixing which training scenarios generate the feedback that drives those updates. As the harness evolves, the scenarios most useful for further optimization can change, suggesting that the training curriculum itself should adapt alongside the harness. We formulate this missing dimension of harness optimization as an automated curriculum learning problem and introduce ActiveSaddler. ActiveSaddler models the evolving curriculum as a non-stationary bandit with dynamically instantiated optimization targets. It abstracts recurring failures into reusable failure-pattern arms, estimates the potential learning progress from further targeting each pattern, and adaptively balances revisiting known weaknesses with exploring unseen scenarios for new ones. Optimization outcomes continually update both the set of discovered failure patterns and their priorities, allowing the curriculum to co-evolve with the harness. Experiments on GAIA2 and Terminal-Bench 2.0 show that ActiveSaddler consistently discovers stronger harnesses, improving test Pass@1 by 4.4 and 7.5 percentage points over the same harness optimizer using a scenario order fixed before optimization, respectively. Ablations further show that these gains depend on dynamically constructing optimization targets, estimating their evolving utility, and balancing continued optimization with new failure discovery. Together, these results establish automated curriculum learning as a new crucial optimization dimension for harness optimization.

Recent approaches such as ControlNet offer users fine-grained spatial control over text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models. However, auxiliary modules have to be trained for each type of spatial condition, model architecture, and checkpoint, putting them at odds with the diverse intents and preferences a human designer would like to convey to the AI models during the content creation process. In this work, we present FreeControl, a training-free approach for controllable T2I generation that supports multiple conditions, architectures, and checkpoints simultaneously. FreeControl designs structure guidance to facilitate the structure alignment with a guidance image, and appearance guidance to enable the appearance sharing between images generated using the same seed. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate the superior performance of FreeControl across a variety of pre-trained T2I models. In particular, FreeControl facilitates convenient training-free control over many different architectures and checkpoints, allows the challenging input conditions on which most of the existing training-free methods fail, and achieves competitive synthesis quality with training-based approaches.

Large language models (LLMs) with chain-of-thought reasoning have demonstrated remarkable problem-solving capabilities, but controlling their computational effort remains a significant challenge for practical deployment. Recent proprietary systems like OpenAI's gpt-oss series have introduced discrete operational modes for intuitive reasoning control, but the open-source community has largely failed to achieve such capabilities. In this paper, we introduce ThinkDial, the first open-recipe end-to-end framework that successfully implements gpt-oss-style controllable reasoning through discrete operational modes. Our system enables seamless switching between three distinct reasoning regimes: High mode (full reasoning capability), Medium mode (50 percent token reduction with <10 percent performance degradation), and Low mode (75 percent token reduction with <15 percent performance degradation). We achieve this through an end-to-end training paradigm that integrates budget-mode control throughout the entire pipeline: budget-mode supervised fine-tuning that embeds controllable reasoning capabilities directly into the learning process, and two-phase budget-aware reinforcement learning with adaptive reward shaping. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ThinkDial achieves target compression-performance trade-offs with clear response length reductions while maintaining performance thresholds. The framework also exhibits strong generalization capabilities on out-of-distribution tasks.

Three of the most popular methods for training language models to reason look like three different tricks. They are not. All three adjust a single number: standard deviation, reflecting how much a prompt's sampled answers disagree. When such a model is trained, it answers each problem many times, and an automatic checker marks every answer right or wrong. The standard deviation of those marks measures the disagreement: largest when the answers split evenly between right and wrong, and zero when they all agree. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) divides by this number, GRPO Done Right (Dr. GRPO) drops the division, and Decoupled Clip and Dynamic Sampling Policy Optimization (DAPO) discards the groups where it is zero. Each is presented as its own fix, yet this paper proves they are three settings of one dial. That dial is not cosmetic: for right-or-wrong rewards, the disagreement is exactly the size of the training update, the group-standard-deviation identity. A split group teaches the most, while a unanimous group teaches nothing and falls silent. The same result says which problems deserve the most weight and how many tries each one needs. This paper confirms the intuition on a large real difficulty dataset (Big-Math) and in a controlled training run. What looks like a harmless normalization step is the dial that decides where learning happens and how strongly.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.