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Mar 18

Benchmark Datasets for Lead-Lag Forecasting on Social Platforms

Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions-such as views, likes, or downloads-are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews. We formalize this setting as Lead-Lag Forecasting (LLF): given an early usage channel (the lead), predict a correlated but temporally shifted outcome channel (the lag). Despite the ubiquity of such patterns, LLF has not been treated as a unified forecasting problem within the time-series community, largely due to the absence of standardized datasets. To anchor research in LLF, here we present two high-volume benchmark datasets-arXiv (accesses -> citations of 2.3M papers) and GitHub (pushes/stars -> forks of 3M repositories)-and outline additional domains with analogous lead-lag dynamics, including Wikipedia (page views -> edits), Spotify (streams -> concert attendance), e-commerce (click-throughs -> purchases), and LinkedIn profile (views -> messages). Our datasets provide ideal testbeds for lead-lag forecasting, by capturing long-horizon dynamics across years, spanning the full spectrum of outcomes, and avoiding survivorship bias in sampling. We documented all technical details of data curation and cleaning, verified the presence of lead-lag dynamics through statistical and classification tests, and benchmarked parametric and non-parametric baselines for regression. Our study establishes LLF as a novel forecasting paradigm and lays an empirical foundation for its systematic exploration in social and usage data. Our data portal with downloads and documentation is available at https://lead-lag-forecasting.github.io/.

  • 12 authors
·
Nov 5, 2025

Beyond Face Rotation: Global and Local Perception GAN for Photorealistic and Identity Preserving Frontal View Synthesis

Photorealistic frontal view synthesis from a single face image has a wide range of applications in the field of face recognition. Although data-driven deep learning methods have been proposed to address this problem by seeking solutions from ample face data, this problem is still challenging because it is intrinsically ill-posed. This paper proposes a Two-Pathway Generative Adversarial Network (TP-GAN) for photorealistic frontal view synthesis by simultaneously perceiving global structures and local details. Four landmark located patch networks are proposed to attend to local textures in addition to the commonly used global encoder-decoder network. Except for the novel architecture, we make this ill-posed problem well constrained by introducing a combination of adversarial loss, symmetry loss and identity preserving loss. The combined loss function leverages both frontal face distribution and pre-trained discriminative deep face models to guide an identity preserving inference of frontal views from profiles. Different from previous deep learning methods that mainly rely on intermediate features for recognition, our method directly leverages the synthesized identity preserving image for downstream tasks like face recognition and attribution estimation. Experimental results demonstrate that our method not only presents compelling perceptual results but also outperforms state-of-the-art results on large pose face recognition.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 13, 2017

Evaluating Podcast Recommendations with Profile-Aware LLM-as-a-Judge

Evaluating personalized recommendations remains a central challenge, especially in long-form audio domains like podcasts, where traditional offline metrics suffer from exposure bias and online methods such as A/B testing are costly and operationally constrained. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) as offline judges to assess the quality of podcast recommendations in a scalable and interpretable manner. Our two-stage profile-aware approach first constructs natural-language user profiles distilled from 90 days of listening history. These profiles summarize both topical interests and behavioral patterns, serving as compact, interpretable representations of user preferences. Rather than prompting the LLM with raw data, we use these profiles to provide high-level, semantically rich context-enabling the LLM to reason more effectively about alignment between a user's interests and recommended episodes. This reduces input complexity and improves interpretability. The LLM is then prompted to deliver fine-grained pointwise and pairwise judgments based on the profile-episode match. In a controlled study with 47 participants, our profile-aware judge matched human judgments with high fidelity and outperformed or matched a variant using raw listening histories. The framework enables efficient, profile-aware evaluation for iterative testing and model selection in recommender systems.

  • 10 authors
·
Aug 12, 2025 2

Auditing M-LLMs for Privacy Risks: A Synthetic Benchmark and Evaluation Framework

Recent advances in multi-modal Large Language Models (M-LLMs) have demonstrated a powerful ability to synthesize implicit information from disparate sources, including images and text. These resourceful data from social media also introduce a significant and underexplored privacy risk: the inference of sensitive personal attributes from seemingly daily media content. However, the lack of benchmarks and comprehensive evaluations of state-of-the-art M-LLM capabilities hinders the research of private attribute profiling on social media. Accordingly, we propose (1) PRISM, the first multi-modal, multi-dimensional and fine-grained synthesized dataset incorporating a comprehensive privacy landscape and dynamic user history; (2) an Efficient evaluation framework that measures the cross-modal privacy inference capabilities of advanced M-LLM. Specifically, PRISM is a large-scale synthetic benchmark designed to evaluate cross-modal privacy risks. Its key feature is 12 sensitive attribute labels across a diverse set of multi-modal profiles, which enables targeted privacy analysis. These profiles are generated via a sophisticated LLM agentic workflow, governed by a prior distribution to ensure they realistically mimic social media users. Additionally, we propose a Multi-Agent Inference Framework that leverages a pipeline of specialized LLMs to enhance evaluation capabilities. We evaluate the inference capabilities of six leading M-LLMs (Qwen, Gemini, GPT-4o, GLM, Doubao, and Grok) on PRISM. The comparison with human performance reveals that these MLLMs significantly outperform in accuracy and efficiency, highlighting the threat of potential privacy risks and the urgent need for robust defenses.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 5, 2025

LettinGo: Explore User Profile Generation for Recommendation System

User profiling is pivotal for recommendation systems, as it transforms raw user interaction data into concise and structured representations that drive personalized recommendations. While traditional embedding-based profiles lack interpretability and adaptability, recent advances with large language models (LLMs) enable text-based profiles that are semantically richer and more transparent. However, existing methods often adhere to fixed formats that limit their ability to capture the full diversity of user behaviors. In this paper, we introduce LettinGo, a novel framework for generating diverse and adaptive user profiles. By leveraging the expressive power of LLMs and incorporating direct feedback from downstream recommendation tasks, our approach avoids the rigid constraints imposed by supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Instead, we employ Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to align the profile generator with task-specific performance, ensuring that the profiles remain adaptive and effective. LettinGo operates in three stages: (1) exploring diverse user profiles via multiple LLMs, (2) evaluating profile quality based on their impact in recommendation systems, and (3) aligning the profile generation through pairwise preference data derived from task performance. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework significantly enhances recommendation accuracy, flexibility, and contextual awareness. This work enhances profile generation as a key innovation for next-generation recommendation systems.

  • 12 authors
·
Jun 23, 2025 1

The Eye of Sherlock Holmes: Uncovering User Private Attribute Profiling via Vision-Language Model Agentic Framework

Our research reveals a new privacy risk associated with the vision-language model (VLM) agentic framework: the ability to infer sensitive attributes (e.g., age and health information) and even abstract ones (e.g., personality and social traits) from a set of personal images, which we term "image private attribute profiling." This threat is particularly severe given that modern apps can easily access users' photo albums, and inference from image sets enables models to exploit inter-image relations for more sophisticated profiling. However, two main challenges hinder our understanding of how well VLMs can profile an individual from a few personal photos: (1) the lack of benchmark datasets with multi-image annotations for private attributes, and (2) the limited ability of current multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to infer abstract attributes from large image collections. In this work, we construct PAPI, the largest dataset for studying private attribute profiling in personal images, comprising 2,510 images from 251 individuals with 3,012 annotated privacy attributes. We also propose HolmesEye, a hybrid agentic framework that combines VLMs and LLMs to enhance privacy inference. HolmesEye uses VLMs to extract both intra-image and inter-image information and LLMs to guide the inference process as well as consolidate the results through forensic analysis, overcoming existing limitations in long-context visual reasoning. Experiments reveal that HolmesEye achieves a 10.8% improvement in average accuracy over state-of-the-art baselines and surpasses human-level performance by 15.0% in predicting abstract attributes. This work highlights the urgency of addressing privacy risks in image-based profiling and offers both a new dataset and an advanced framework to guide future research in this area.

  • 12 authors
·
May 25, 2025

PRODIGy: a PROfile-based DIalogue Generation dataset

Providing dialogue agents with a profile representation can improve their consistency and coherence, leading to better conversations. However, current profile-based dialogue datasets for training such agents contain either explicit profile representations that are simple and dialogue-specific, or implicit representations that are difficult to collect. In this work, we propose a unified framework in which we bring together both standard and more sophisticated profile representations by creating a new resource where each dialogue is aligned with all possible speaker representations such as communication style, biographies, and personality. This framework allows to test several baselines built using generative language models with several profile configurations. The automatic evaluation shows that profile-based models have better generalisation capabilities than models trained on dialogues only, both in-domain and cross-domain settings. These results are consistent for fine-tuned models and instruction-based LLMs. Additionally, human evaluation demonstrates a clear preference for generations consistent with both profile and context. Finally, to account for possible privacy concerns, all experiments are done under two configurations: inter-character and intra-character. In the former, the LM stores the information about the character in its internal representation, while in the latter, the LM does not retain any personal information but uses it only at inference time.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 9, 2023