Daily Papers

Determining an effective data mixture is a key factor in Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training, where models must balance general competence with proficiency on hard tasks such as math and code. However, identifying an optimal mixture remains an open challenge, as existing approaches either rely on unreliable tiny-scale proxy experiments or require prohibitively expensive large-scale exploration. To address this, we propose Decouple Searching from Training Mix (DeMix), a novel framework that leverages model merging to predict optimal data ratios. Instead of training proxy models for every sampled mixture, DeMix trains component models on candidate datasets at scale and derives data mixture proxies via weighted model merging. This paradigm decouples search from training costs, enabling evaluation of unlimited sampled mixtures without extra training burden and thus facilitating better mixture discovery through more search trials. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DeMix breaks the trade-off between sufficiency, accuracy and efficiency, obtaining the optimal mixture with higher benchmark performance at lower search cost. Additionally, we release the DeMix Corpora, a comprehensive 22T-token dataset comprising high-quality pre-training data with validated mixtures to facilitate open research. Our code and DeMix Corpora is available at https://github.com/Lucius-lsr/DeMix.

Despite the general capabilities of large pretrained language models, they consistently benefit from further adaptation to better achieve desired behaviors. However, tuning these models has become increasingly resource-intensive, or impossible when model weights are private. We introduce proxy-tuning, a lightweight decoding-time algorithm that operates on top of black-box LMs to achieve the result of directly tuning the model, but by accessing only its prediction over the output vocabulary. Our method instead tunes a smaller LM, then applies the difference between the predictions of the small tuned and untuned LMs to shift the original predictions of the base model in the direction of tuning, while retaining the benefits of larger scale pretraining. In experiments, when we apply proxy-tuning to Llama2-70B using proxies of only 7B size, we can close 88% of the gap between Llama2-70B and its truly-tuned chat version, when evaluated across knowledge, reasoning, and safety benchmarks. Interestingly, when tested on TruthfulQA, proxy-tuned models are actually more truthful than directly tuned models, possibly because decoding-time guidance better retains the model's factual knowledge. We then demonstrate the generality of proxy-tuning by applying it for domain adaptation on code, and task-specific finetuning on question-answering and math problems. Our work demonstrates the promise of using small tuned LMs to efficiently customize large, potentially proprietary LMs through decoding-time guidance.

Current 3D representations like meshes, voxels, point clouds, and NeRF-based neural implicit fields exhibit significant limitations: they are often task-specific, lacking universal applicability across reconstruction, generation, editing, and driving. While meshes offer high precision, their dense vertex data complicates editing; NeRFs deliver excellent rendering but suffer from structural ambiguity, hindering animation and manipulation; all representations inherently struggle with the trade-off between data complexity and fidelity. To overcome these issues, we introduce a novel 3D Hierarchical Proxy Node representation. Its core innovation lies in representing an object's shape and texture via a sparse set of hierarchically organized (tree-structured) proxy nodes distributed on its surface and interior. Each node stores local shape and texture information (implicitly encoded by a small MLP) within its neighborhood. Querying any 3D coordinate's properties involves efficient neural interpolation and lightweight decoding from relevant nearby and parent nodes. This framework yields a highly compact representation where nodes align with local semantics, enabling direct drag-and-edit manipulation, and offers scalable quality-complexity control. Extensive experiments across 3D reconstruction and editing demonstrate our method's expressive efficiency, high-fidelity rendering quality, and superior editability.

Neural architecture search (NAS) is a hard computationally expensive optimization problem with a discrete, vast, and spiky search space. One of the key research efforts dedicated to this space focuses on accelerating NAS via certain proxy evaluations of neural architectures. Different from the prevalent predictor-based methods using surrogate models and differentiable architecture search via supernetworks, we propose an optimization proxy to streamline the NAS as an end-to-end optimization framework, named OptiProxy-NAS. In particular, using a proxy representation, the NAS space is reformulated to be continuous, differentiable, and smooth. Thereby, any differentiable optimization method can be applied to the gradient-based search of the relaxed architecture parameters. Our comprehensive experiments on 12 NAS tasks of 4 search spaces across three different domains including computer vision, natural language processing, and resource-constrained NAS fully demonstrate the superior search results and efficiency. Further experiments on low-fidelity scenarios verify the flexibility.

Recent advances in 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) have demonstrated remarkable rendering fidelity and efficiency. However, these methods still rely on computationally expensive sequential alpha-blending operations, resulting in significant overhead, particularly on resource-constrained platforms. In this paper, we propose Duplex-GS, a dual-hierarchy framework that integrates proxy Gaussian representations with order-independent rendering techniques to achieve photorealistic results while sustaining real-time performance. To mitigate the overhead caused by view-adaptive radix sort, we introduce cell proxies for local Gaussians management and propose cell search rasterization for further acceleration. By seamlessly combining our framework with Order-Independent Transparency (OIT), we develop a physically inspired weighted sum rendering technique that simultaneously eliminates "popping" and "transparency" artifacts, yielding substantial improvements in both accuracy and efficiency. Extensive experiments on a variety of real-world datasets demonstrate the robustness of our method across diverse scenarios, including multi-scale training views and large-scale environments. Our results validate the advantages of the OIT rendering paradigm in Gaussian Splatting, achieving high-quality rendering with an impressive 1.5 to 4 speedup over existing OIT based Gaussian Splatting approaches and 52.2% to 86.9% reduction of the radix sort overhead without quality degradation.

For general users, training a neural network from scratch is usually challenging and labor-intensive. Fortunately, neural network zoos enable them to find a well-performing model for directly use or fine-tuning it in their local environments. Although current model retrieval solutions attempt to convert neural network models into vectors to avoid complex multiple inference processes required for model selection, it is still difficult to choose a suitable model due to inaccurate vectorization and biased correlation alignment between the query dataset and models. From the perspective of knowledge consistency, i.e., whether the knowledge possessed by the model can meet the needs of query tasks, we propose a model retrieval scheme, named Know2Vec, that acts as a black-box retrieval proxy for model zoo. Know2Vec first accesses to models via a black-box interface in advance, capturing vital decision knowledge from models while ensuring their privacy. Next, it employs an effective encoding technique to transform the knowledge into precise model vectors. Secondly, it maps the user's query task to a knowledge vector by probing the semantic relationships within query samples. Furthermore, the proxy ensures the knowledge-consistency between query vector and model vectors within their alignment space, which is optimized through the supervised learning with diverse loss functions, and finally it can identify the most suitable model for a given task during the inference stage. Extensive experiments show that our Know2Vec achieves superior retrieval accuracy against the state-of-the-art methods in diverse neural network retrieval tasks.

Recently, the mainstream practice for training low-light raw image denoising methods has shifted towards employing synthetic data. Noise modeling, which focuses on characterizing the noise distribution of real-world sensors, profoundly influences the effectiveness and practicality of synthetic data. Currently, physics-based noise modeling struggles to characterize the entire real noise distribution, while learning-based noise modeling impractically depends on paired real data. In this paper, we propose a novel strategy: learning the noise model from dark frames instead of paired real data, to break down the data dependency. Based on this strategy, we introduce an efficient physics-guided noise neural proxy (PNNP) to approximate the real-world sensor noise model. Specifically, we integrate physical priors into neural proxies and introduce three efficient techniques: physics-guided noise decoupling (PND), physics-guided proxy model (PPM), and differentiable distribution loss (DDL). PND decouples the dark frame into different components and handles different levels of noise flexibly, which reduces the complexity of noise modeling. PPM incorporates physical priors to constrain the generated noise, which promotes the accuracy of noise modeling. DDL provides explicit and reliable supervision for noise distribution, which promotes the precision of noise modeling. PNNP exhibits powerful potential in characterizing the real noise distribution. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate superior performance in practical low-light raw image denoising. The code will be available at https://github.com/fenghansen/PNNP.

In spite of the outstanding performance, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is criticized for massive computation. Recently, Zero-shot NAS has emerged as a promising approach by exploiting Zero-cost (ZC) proxies, which markedly reduce computational demands. Despite this, existing ZC proxies heavily rely on expert knowledge and incur significant trial-and-error costs. Particularly in NLP tasks, most existing ZC proxies fail to surpass the performance of the naive baseline. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel framework, LPZero, which is the first to automatically design ZC proxies for various tasks, achieving higher ranking consistency than human-designed proxies. Specifically, we model the ZC proxy as a symbolic equation and incorporate a unified proxy search space that encompasses existing ZC proxies, which are composed of a predefined set of mathematical symbols. To heuristically search for the best ZC proxy, LPZero incorporates genetic programming to find the optimal symbolic composition. We propose a Rule-based Pruning Strategy (RPS), which preemptively eliminates unpromising proxies, thereby mitigating the risk of proxy degradation. Extensive experiments on FlexiBERT, GPT-2, and LLaMA-7B demonstrate LPZero's superior ranking ability and performance on downstream tasks compared to current approaches.

Online continual learning (OCL) aims to continuously learn new data from a single pass over the online data stream. It generally suffers from the catastrophic forgetting issue. Existing replay-based methods effectively alleviate this issue by replaying part of old data in a proxy-based or contrastive-based replay manner. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of these two replay manners and find they can be complementary. Inspired by this finding, we propose a novel replay-based method called proxy-based contrastive replay (PCR), which replaces anchor-to-sample pairs with anchor-to-proxy pairs in the contrastive-based loss to alleviate the phenomenon of forgetting. Based on PCR, we further develop a more advanced method named holistic proxy-based contrastive replay (HPCR), which consists of three components. The contrastive component conditionally incorporates anchor-to-sample pairs to PCR, learning more fine-grained semantic information with a large training batch. The second is a temperature component that decouples the temperature coefficient into two parts based on their impacts on the gradient and sets different values for them to learn more novel knowledge. The third is a distillation component that constrains the learning process to keep more historical knowledge. Experiments on four datasets consistently demonstrate the superiority of HPCR over various state-of-the-art methods.

Online class-incremental continual learning is a specific task of continual learning. It aims to continuously learn new classes from data stream and the samples of data stream are seen only once, which suffers from the catastrophic forgetting issue, i.e., forgetting historical knowledge of old classes. Existing replay-based methods effectively alleviate this issue by saving and replaying part of old data in a proxy-based or contrastive-based replay manner. Although these two replay manners are effective, the former would incline to new classes due to class imbalance issues, and the latter is unstable and hard to converge because of the limited number of samples. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of these two replay manners and find that they can be complementary. Inspired by this finding, we propose a novel replay-based method called proxy-based contrastive replay (PCR). The key operation is to replace the contrastive samples of anchors with corresponding proxies in the contrastive-based way. It alleviates the phenomenon of catastrophic forgetting by effectively addressing the imbalance issue, as well as keeps a faster convergence of the model. We conduct extensive experiments on three real-world benchmark datasets, and empirical results consistently demonstrate the superiority of PCR over various state-of-the-art methods.

Robust validation metrics remain essential in contemporary deep learning, not only to detect overfitting and poor generalization, but also to monitor training dynamics. In the supervised classification setting, we investigate whether interactions between training data and model weights can yield such a metric that both tracks generalization during training and attributes performance to individual training samples. We introduce Gradient-Weight Alignment (GWA), quantifying the coherence between per-sample gradients and model weights. We show that effective learning corresponds to coherent alignment, while misalignment indicates deteriorating generalization. GWA is efficiently computable during training and reflects both sample-specific contributions and dataset-wide learning dynamics. Extensive experiments show that GWA accurately predicts optimal early stopping, enables principled model comparisons, and identifies influential training samples, providing a validation-set-free approach for model analysis directly from the training data.

This paper explores the relationship between the condition number of a neural network's weight tensor and the extent of information encoded by the associated processing unit, viewed through the lens of information theory. It argues that a high condition number, though not sufficient for effective knowledge encoding, may indicate that the unit has learned to selectively amplify and compress information. This intuition is formalized for linear units with Gaussian inputs, linking the condition number and the transformation's log-volume scaling factor to the characteristics of the output entropy and the geometric properties of the learned transformation. The analysis demonstrates that for a fixed weight norm, a concentrated distribution of singular values (high condition number) corresponds to reduced overall information transfer, indicating a specialized and efficient encoding strategy. Furthermore, the linear stage entropy bound provides an upper limit on post-activation information for contractive, element-wise nonlinearities, supporting the condition number as a scale-invariant proxy for encoding capacity in practical neural networks. An empirical case study applies these principles to guide selective fine-tuning of Large Language Models for both a new task and a new input modality. The experiments show that the proposed method, named KappaTune, effectively mitigates catastrophic forgetting. Unlike many existing catastrophic forgetting mitigation methods that rely on access to pre-training statistics, which are often unavailable, this selective fine-tuning approach offers a way to bypass this common requirement.

Wild Test-Time Adaptation (WTTA) is proposed to adapt a source model to unseen domains under extreme data scarcity and multiple shifts. Previous approaches mainly focused on sample selection strategies, while overlooking the fundamental problem on underlying optimization. Initially, we critically analyze the widely-adopted entropy minimization framework in WTTA and uncover its significant limitations in noisy optimization dynamics that substantially hinder adaptation efficiency. Through our analysis, we identify region confidence as a superior alternative to traditional entropy, however, its direct optimization remains computationally prohibitive for real-time applications. In this paper, we introduce a novel region-integrated method ReCAP that bypasses the lengthy process. Specifically, we propose a probabilistic region modeling scheme that flexibly captures semantic changes in embedding space. Subsequently, we develop a finite-to-infinite asymptotic approximation that transforms the intractable region confidence into a tractable and upper-bounded proxy. These innovations significantly unlock the overlooked potential dynamics in local region in a concise solution. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the consistent superiority of ReCAP over existing methods across various datasets and wild scenarios.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems face a fundamental challenge in aligning independently developed retrievers and large language models (LLMs). Existing approaches typically involve modifying either component or introducing simple intermediate modules, resulting in practical limitations and sub-optimal performance. Inspired by human search behavior -- typically involving a back-and-forth process of proposing search queries and reviewing documents, we propose C-3PO, a proxy-centric framework that facilitates communication between retrievers and LLMs through a lightweight multi-agent system. Our framework implements three specialized agents that collaboratively optimize the entire RAG pipeline without altering the retriever and LLMs. These agents work together to assess the need for retrieval, generate effective queries, and select information suitable for the LLMs. To enable effective multi-agent coordination, we develop a tree-structured rollout approach for reward credit assignment in reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments in both in-domain and out-of-distribution scenarios demonstrate that C-3PO significantly enhances RAG performance while maintaining plug-and-play flexibility and superior generalization capabilities.

Multimodal models often experience a significant performance drop when one or more modalities are missing during inference. To address this challenge, we propose a simple yet effective approach that enhances robustness to missing modalities while maintaining strong performance when all modalities are available. Our method introduces cross-modal proxy tokens (CMPTs), which approximate the class token of a missing modality by attending only to the tokens of the available modality without requiring explicit modality generation or auxiliary networks. To efficiently learn these approximations with minimal computational overhead, we employ low-rank adapters in frozen unimodal encoders and jointly optimize an alignment loss with a task-specific loss. Extensive experiments on five multimodal datasets show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across various missing rates while achieving competitive results in complete-modality settings. Overall, our method offers a flexible and efficient solution for robust multimodal learning. The code and pretrained models will be released on GitHub.

It has been shown that Large Language Model (LLM) alignments can be circumvented by appending specially crafted attack suffixes with harmful queries to elicit harmful responses. To conduct attacks against private target models whose characterization is unknown, public models can be used as proxies to fashion the attack, with successful attacks being transferred from public proxies to private target models. The success rate of attack depends on how closely the proxy model approximates the private model. We hypothesize that for attacks to be transferrable, it is sufficient if the proxy can approximate the target model in the neighborhood of the harmful query. Therefore, in this paper, we propose Local Fine-Tuning (LoFT), i.e., fine-tuning proxy models on similar queries that lie in the lexico-semantic neighborhood of harmful queries to decrease the divergence between the proxy and target models. First, we demonstrate three approaches to prompt private target models to obtain similar queries given harmful queries. Next, we obtain data for local fine-tuning by eliciting responses from target models for the generated similar queries. Then, we optimize attack suffixes to generate attack prompts and evaluate the impact of our local fine-tuning on the attack's success rate. Experiments show that local fine-tuning of proxy models improves attack transferability and increases attack success rate by 39%, 7%, and 0.5% (absolute) on target models ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude respectively.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection empowers the model trained on the closed image set to identify unknown data in the open world. Though many prior techniques have yielded considerable improvements in this research direction, two crucial obstacles still remain. Firstly, a unified perspective has yet to be presented to view the developed arts with individual designs, which is vital for providing insights into future work. Secondly, we expect sufficient natural OOD supervision to promote the generation of compact boundaries between the in-distribution (ID) and OOD data without collecting explicit OOD samples. To tackle these issues, we propose a general probabilistic framework to interpret many existing methods and an OOD-data-free model, namely Self-supervised Sampling for OOD Detection (SSOD). SSOD efficiently exploits natural OOD signals from the ID data based on the local property of convolution. With these supervisions, it jointly optimizes the OOD detection and conventional ID classification in an end-to-end manner. Extensive experiments reveal that SSOD establishes competitive state-of-the-art performance on many large-scale benchmarks, outperforming the best previous method by a large margin, \eg, reporting -6.28\% FPR95 and +0.77\% AUROC on ImageNet, -19.01\% FPR95 and +3.04\% AUROC on CIFAR-10, and top-ranked performance on hard OOD datasets, \ie, ImageNet-O and OpenImage-O.

As humans, we aspire to create media content that is both freely willed and readily controlled. Thanks to the prominent development of generative techniques, we now can easily utilize 2D diffusion methods to synthesize images controlled by raw sketch or designated human poses, and even progressively edit/regenerate local regions with masked inpainting. However, similar workflows in 3D modeling tasks are still unavailable due to the lack of controllability and efficiency in 3D generation. In this paper, we present a novel controllable and interactive 3D assets modeling framework, named Coin3D. Coin3D allows users to control the 3D generation using a coarse geometry proxy assembled from basic shapes, and introduces an interactive generation workflow to support seamless local part editing while delivering responsive 3D object previewing within a few seconds. To this end, we develop several techniques, including the 3D adapter that applies volumetric coarse shape control to the diffusion model, proxy-bounded editing strategy for precise part editing, progressive volume cache to support responsive preview, and volume-SDS to ensure consistent mesh reconstruction. Extensive experiments of interactive generation and editing on diverse shape proxies demonstrate that our method achieves superior controllability and flexibility in the 3D assets generation task.

Recent advances in deep generative modeling have unlocked unprecedented opportunities for video synthesis. In real-world applications, however, users often seek tools to faithfully realize their creative editing intentions with precise and consistent control. Despite the progress achieved by existing methods, ensuring fine-grained alignment with user intentions remains an open and challenging problem. In this work, we present Shape-for-Motion, a novel framework that incorporates a 3D proxy for precise and consistent video editing. Shape-for-Motion achieves this by converting the target object in the input video to a time-consistent mesh, i.e., a 3D proxy, allowing edits to be performed directly on the proxy and then inferred back to the video frames. To simplify the editing process, we design a novel Dual-Propagation Strategy that allows users to perform edits on the 3D mesh of a single frame, and the edits are then automatically propagated to the 3D meshes of the other frames. The 3D meshes for different frames are further projected onto the 2D space to produce the edited geometry and texture renderings, which serve as inputs to a decoupled video diffusion model for generating edited results. Our framework supports various precise and physically-consistent manipulations across the video frames, including pose editing, rotation, scaling, translation, texture modification, and object composition. Our approach marks a key step toward high-quality, controllable video editing workflows. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority and effectiveness of our approach. Project page: https://shapeformotion.github.io/

Given the prohibitive cost of pre-training large language models, it is essential to leverage smaller proxy models to optimize datasets before scaling up. However, this approach becomes challenging for reasoning capabilities, which exhibit emergent behavior that only appear reliably at larger model sizes, often exceeding 7B parameters. To address this, we introduce rBridge, showing that small proxies (leq1B) can effectively predict large-model reasoning by aligning more closely with (1) the pre-training objective and (2) the target task. rBridge achieves this by weighting negative log-likelihood with task alignment, using reasoning traces from frontier models as gold labels. In our experiments, rBridge (i) reduces dataset ranking costs by over 100x relative to the best baseline, (ii) achieves the strongest correlation across six reasoning benchmarks at 1B to 32B scale, and (iii) zero-shot transfers predictive relationships across pre-training datasets at 1B to 7B scale. These findings indicate that rBridge offers a practical path for exploring reasoning-oriented pre-training at lower cost.

Straight-through estimator (STE), which enables the gradient flow over the non-differentiable function via approximation, has been favored in studies related to quantization-aware training (QAT). However, STE incurs unstable convergence during QAT, resulting in notable quality degradation in low precision. Recently, pseudoquantization training has been proposed as an alternative approach to updating the learnable parameters using the pseudo-quantization noise instead of STE. In this study, we propose a novel noise proxy-based integrated pseudoquantization (NIPQ) that enables unified support of pseudoquantization for both activation and weight by integrating the idea of truncation on the pseudo-quantization framework. NIPQ updates all of the quantization parameters (e.g., bit-width and truncation boundary) as well as the network parameters via gradient descent without STE instability. According to our extensive experiments, NIPQ outperforms existing quantization algorithms in various vision and language applications by a large margin.

Learning from active human involvement enables the human subject to actively intervene and demonstrate to the AI agent during training. The interaction and corrective feedback from human brings safety and AI alignment to the learning process. In this work, we propose a new reward-free active human involvement method called Proxy Value Propagation for policy optimization. Our key insight is that a proxy value function can be designed to express human intents, wherein state-action pairs in the human demonstration are labeled with high values, while those agents' actions that are intervened receive low values. Through the TD-learning framework, labeled values of demonstrated state-action pairs are further propagated to other unlabeled data generated from agents' exploration. The proxy value function thus induces a policy that faithfully emulates human behaviors. Human-in-the-loop experiments show the generality and efficiency of our method. With minimal modification to existing reinforcement learning algorithms, our method can learn to solve continuous and discrete control tasks with various human control devices, including the challenging task of driving in Grand Theft Auto V. Demo video and code are available at: https://metadriverse.github.io/pvp

With the rapidly increasing application of large language models (LLMs), their abuse has caused many undesirable societal problems such as fake news, academic dishonesty, and information pollution. This makes AI-generated text (AIGT) detection of great importance. Among existing methods, white-box methods are generally superior to black-box methods in terms of performance and generalizability, but they require access to LLMs' internal states and are not applicable to black-box settings. In this paper, we propose to estimate word generation probabilities as pseudo white-box features via multiple re-sampling to help improve AIGT detection under the black-box setting. Specifically, we design POGER, a proxy-guided efficient re-sampling method, which selects a small subset of representative words (e.g., 10 words) for performing multiple re-sampling in black-box AIGT detection. Experiments on datasets containing texts from humans and seven LLMs show that POGER outperforms all baselines in macro F1 under black-box, partial white-box, and out-of-distribution settings and maintains lower re-sampling costs than its existing counterparts.

We introduce a new proxy score for evaluating bitext mining based on similarity in a multilingual embedding space: xSIM++. In comparison to xSIM, this improved proxy leverages rule-based approaches to extend English sentences in any evaluation set with synthetic, hard-to-distinguish examples which more closely mirror the scenarios we encounter during large-scale mining. We validate this proxy by running a significant number of bitext mining experiments for a set of low-resource languages, and subsequently train NMT systems on the mined data. In comparison to xSIM, we show that xSIM++ is better correlated with the downstream BLEU scores of translation systems trained on mined bitexts, providing a reliable proxy of bitext mining performance without needing to run expensive bitext mining pipelines. xSIM++ also reports performance for different error types, offering more fine-grained feedback for model development.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as human simulators, both for evaluating conversational systems and for generating fine-tuning data. However, naive "act-as-a-user" prompting often yields verbose, unrealistic utterances, underscoring the need for principled evaluation of so-called user proxy agents. We present MIRRORBENCH, a reproducible, extensible benchmarking framework that evaluates user proxies solely on their ability to produce human-like user utterances across diverse conversational tasks, explicitly decoupled from downstream task success. MIRRORBENCH features a modular execution engine with typed interfaces, metadata-driven registries, multi-backend support, caching, and robust observability. The system supports pluggable user proxies, datasets, tasks, and metrics, enabling researchers to evaluate arbitrary simulators under a uniform, variance-aware harness. We include three lexical-diversity metrics (MATTR, YULE'S K, and HD-D) and three LLM-judge-based metrics (GTEval, Pairwise Indistinguishability, and Rubric-and-Reason). Across four open datasets, MIRRORBENCH yields variance-aware results and reveals systematic gaps between user proxies and real human users. The framework is open source and includes a simple command-line interface for running experiments, managing configurations and caching, and generating reports. The framework can be accessed at https://github.com/SAP/mirrorbench.

Fine-tuning diffusion models via online reinforcement learning (RL) has shown great potential for enhancing text-to-image alignment. However, since precisely specifying a ground-truth objective for visual tasks remains challenging, the models are often optimized using a proxy reward that only partially captures the true goal. This mismatch often leads to reward hacking, where proxy scores increase while real image quality deteriorates and generation diversity collapses. While common solutions add regularization against the reference policy to prevent reward hacking, they compromise sample efficiency and impede the exploration of novel, high-reward regions, as the reference policy is usually sub-optimal. To address the competing demands of sample efficiency, effective exploration, and mitigation of reward hacking, we propose Gated and Adaptive Regularization with Diversity-aware Optimization (GARDO), a versatile framework compatible with various RL algorithms. Our key insight is that regularization need not be applied universally; instead, it is highly effective to selectively penalize a subset of samples that exhibit high uncertainty. To address the exploration challenge, GARDO introduces an adaptive regularization mechanism wherein the reference model is periodically updated to match the capabilities of the online policy, ensuring a relevant regularization target. To address the mode collapse issue in RL, GARDO amplifies the rewards for high-quality samples that also exhibit high diversity, encouraging mode coverage without destabilizing the optimization process. Extensive experiments across diverse proxy rewards and hold-out unseen metrics consistently show that GARDO mitigates reward hacking and enhances generation diversity without sacrificing sample efficiency or exploration, highlighting its effectiveness and robustness.

Substantial Gaussian splatting format point clouds require effective compression. In this paper, we propose Voxel-GS, a simple yet highly effective framework that departs from the complex neural entropy models of prior work, instead achieving competitive performance using only a lightweight rate proxy and run-length coding. Specifically, we employ a differentiable quantization to discretize the Gaussian attributes of Scaffold-GS. Subsequently, a Laplacian-based rate proxy is devised to impose an entropy constraint, guiding the generation of high-fidelity and compact reconstructions. Finally, this integer-type Gaussian point cloud is compressed losslessly using Octree and run-length coding. Experiments validate that the proposed rate proxy accurately estimates the bitrate of run-length coding, enabling Voxel-GS to eliminate redundancy and optimize for a more compact representation. Consequently, our method achieves a remarkable compression ratio with significantly faster coding speeds than prior art. The code is available at https://github.com/zb12138/VoxelGS.

The duality of content and style is inherent to the nature of art. For humans, these two elements are clearly different: content refers to the objects and concepts in the piece of art, and style to the way it is expressed. This duality poses an important challenge for computer vision. The visual appearance of objects and concepts is modulated by the style that may reflect the author's emotions, social trends, artistic movement, etc., and their deep comprehension undoubtfully requires to handle both. A promising step towards a general paradigm for art analysis is to disentangle content and style, whereas relying on human annotations to cull a single aspect of artworks has limitations in learning semantic concepts and the visual appearance of paintings. We thus present GOYA, a method that distills the artistic knowledge captured in a recent generative model to disentangle content and style. Experiments show that synthetically generated images sufficiently serve as a proxy of the real distribution of artworks, allowing GOYA to separately represent the two elements of art while keeping more information than existing methods.

Using reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF) has shown significant promise in fine-tuning diffusion models. Previous methods start by training a reward model that aligns with human preferences, then leverage RL techniques to fine-tune the underlying models. However, crafting an efficient reward model demands extensive datasets, optimal architecture, and manual hyperparameter tuning, making the process both time and cost-intensive. The direct preference optimization (DPO) method, effective in fine-tuning large language models, eliminates the necessity for a reward model. However, the extensive GPU memory requirement of the diffusion model's denoising process hinders the direct application of the DPO method. To address this issue, we introduce the Direct Preference for Denoising Diffusion Policy Optimization (D3PO) method to directly fine-tune diffusion models. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that although D3PO omits training a reward model, it effectively functions as the optimal reward model trained using human feedback data to guide the learning process. This approach requires no training of a reward model, proving to be more direct, cost-effective, and minimizing computational overhead. In experiments, our method uses the relative scale of objectives as a proxy for human preference, delivering comparable results to methods using ground-truth rewards. Moreover, D3PO demonstrates the ability to reduce image distortion rates and generate safer images, overcoming challenges lacking robust reward models.

Recently, GRPO-based reinforcement learning has shown remarkable progress in optimizing flow-matching models, effectively improving their alignment with task-specific rewards. Within these frameworks, the policy update relies on importance-ratio clipping to constrain overconfident positive and negative gradients. However, in practice, we observe a systematic shift in the importance-ratio distribution-its mean falls below 1 and its variance differs substantially across timesteps. This left-shifted and inconsistent distribution prevents positive-advantage samples from entering the clipped region, causing the mechanism to fail in constraining overconfident positive updates. As a result, the policy model inevitably enters an implicit over-optimization stage-while the proxy reward continues to increase, essential metrics such as image quality and text-prompt alignment deteriorate sharply, ultimately making the learned policy impractical for real-world use. To address this issue, we introduce GRPO-Guard, a simple yet effective enhancement to existing GRPO frameworks. Our method incorporates ratio normalization, which restores a balanced and step-consistent importance ratio, ensuring that PPO clipping properly constrains harmful updates across denoising timesteps. In addition, a gradient reweighting strategy equalizes policy gradients over noise conditions, preventing excessive updates from particular timestep regions. Together, these designs act as a regulated clipping mechanism, stabilizing optimization and substantially mitigating implicit over-optimization without relying on heavy KL regularization. Extensive experiments on multiple diffusion backbones (e.g., SD3.5M, Flux.1-dev) and diverse proxy tasks demonstrate that GRPO-Guard significantly reduces over-optimization while maintaining or even improving generation quality.

Over the last three decades, innovations in the memory subsystem were primarily targeted at overcoming the data movement bottleneck. In this paper, we focus on a specific market trend in memory technology: 3D-stacked memory and caches. We investigate the impact of extending the on-chip memory capabilities in future HPC-focused processors, particularly by 3D-stacked SRAM. First, we propose a method oblivious to the memory subsystem to gauge the upper-bound in performance improvements when data movement costs are eliminated. Then, using the gem5 simulator, we model two variants of LARC, a processor fabricated in 1.5 nm and enriched with high-capacity 3D-stacked cache. With a volume of experiments involving a board set of proxy-applications and benchmarks, we aim to reveal where HPC CPU performance could be circa 2028, and conclude an average boost of 9.77x for cache-sensitive HPC applications, on a per-chip basis. Additionally, we exhaustively document our methodological exploration to motivate HPC centers to drive their own technological agenda through enhanced co-design.

The mixture proportions of pretraining data domains (e.g., Wikipedia, books, web text) greatly affect language model (LM) performance. In this paper, we propose Domain Reweighting with Minimax Optimization (DoReMi), which first trains a small proxy model using group distributionally robust optimization (Group DRO) over domains to produce domain weights (mixture proportions) without knowledge of downstream tasks. We then resample a dataset with these domain weights and train a larger, full-sized model. In our experiments, we use DoReMi on a 280M-parameter proxy model to find domain weights for training an 8B-parameter model (30x larger) more efficiently. On The Pile, DoReMi improves perplexity across all domains, even when it downweights a domain. DoReMi improves average few-shot downstream accuracy by 6.5% over a baseline model trained using The Pile's default domain weights and reaches the baseline accuracy with 2.6x fewer training steps. On the GLaM dataset, DoReMi, which has no knowledge of downstream tasks, even matches the performance of using domain weights tuned on downstream tasks.

The rapid adoption of LLMs has increased the need for reliable AI text detection, yet existing detectors often fail outside controlled benchmarks. We systematically evaluate 2 dominant paradigms (training-free and supervised) and show that both are brittle under distribution shift, unseen generators, and simple stylistic perturbations. To address these limitations, we propose a supervised contrastive learning (SCL) framework that learns discriminative style embeddings. Experiments show that while supervised detectors excel in-domain, they degrade sharply out-of-domain, and training-free methods remain highly sensitive to proxy choice. Overall, our results expose fundamental challenges in building domain-agnostic detectors. Our code is available at: https://github.com/HARSHITJAIS14/DetectAI

Evaluating fairness can be challenging in practice because the sensitive attributes of data are often inaccessible due to privacy constraints. The go-to approach that the industry frequently adopts is using off-the-shelf proxy models to predict the missing sensitive attributes, e.g. Meta [Alao et al., 2021] and Twitter [Belli et al., 2022]. Despite its popularity, there are three important questions unanswered: (1) Is directly using proxies efficacious in measuring fairness? (2) If not, is it possible to accurately evaluate fairness using proxies only? (3) Given the ethical controversy over inferring user private information, is it possible to only use weak (i.e. inaccurate) proxies in order to protect privacy? Our theoretical analyses show that directly using proxy models can give a false sense of (un)fairness. Second, we develop an algorithm that is able to measure fairness (provably) accurately with only three properly identified proxies. Third, we show that our algorithm allows the use of only weak proxies (e.g. with only 68.85%accuracy on COMPAS), adding an extra layer of protection on user privacy. Experiments validate our theoretical analyses and show our algorithm can effectively measure and mitigate bias. Our results imply a set of practical guidelines for practitioners on how to use proxies properly. Code is available at github.com/UCSC-REAL/fair-eval.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable success in long-form context comprehension tasks. However, their capacity to generate long contents, such as reports and articles, remains insufficiently explored. Current benchmarks do not adequately assess LLMs' ability to produce informative and comprehensive content, necessitating a more rigorous evaluation approach. In this study, we introduce ProxyQA, a framework for evaluating long-form text generation, comprising in-depth human-curated meta-questions spanning various domains. Each meta-question contains corresponding proxy-questions with annotated answers. LLMs are prompted to generate extensive content in response to these meta-questions. Utilizing an evaluator and incorporating generated content as background context, ProxyQA evaluates the quality of generated content based on the evaluator's performance in answering the proxy-questions. We examine multiple LLMs, emphasizing ProxyQA's demanding nature as a high-quality assessment tool. Human evaluation demonstrates that evaluating through proxy-questions is a highly self-consistent and human-criteria-correlated validation method. The dataset and leaderboard will be available at https://github.com/Namco0816/ProxyQA.

We present an algorithm for minimizing an objective with hard-to-compute gradients by using a related, easier-to-access function as a proxy. Our algorithm is based on approximate proximal point iterations on the proxy combined with relatively few stochastic gradients from the objective. When the difference between the objective and the proxy is delta-smooth, our algorithm guarantees convergence at a rate matching stochastic gradient descent on a delta-smooth objective, which can lead to substantially better sample efficiency. Our algorithm has many potential applications in machine learning, and provides a principled means of leveraging synthetic data, physics simulators, mixed public and private data, and more.

Completely randomized experiments, originally developed by Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s, are still widely used in practice, even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in marketplaces, where multiple populations of agents interact strategically, leading to complex patterns of spillover effects. In this paper, we derive the finite-sample properties of tractable estimators for "Simple Multiple Randomization Designs" (SMRDs), a new class of experimental designs which account for complex spillover effects in randomized experiments. Our derivations are obtained under a natural and general form of cross-unit interference, which we call "local interference". We discuss the estimation of main effects, direct effects, and spillovers, and present associated central limit theorems.

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of model representations on outputs. In response, many explainability methods make no use of counterfactual texts, assuming they will be unavailable. In this paper, we show that robust causal explainability methods can be created using approximate counterfactuals, which can be written by humans to approximate a specific counterfactual or simply sampled using metadata-guided heuristics. The core of our proposal is the Causal Proxy Model (CPM). A CPM explains a black-box model N because it is trained to have the same actual input/output behavior as N while creating neural representations that can be intervened upon to simulate the counterfactual input/output behavior of N. Furthermore, we show that the best CPM for N performs comparably to N in making factual predictions, which means that the CPM can simply replace N, leading to more explainable deployed models. Our code is available at https://github.com/frankaging/Causal-Proxy-Model.

Recent advancements in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards have pushed the boundaries of the visual reasoning capabilities in large vision-language models (LVLMs). However, training LVLMs with reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) is computationally expensive, posing a significant challenge to scaling model size. In this work, we propose ProxyThinker, an inference-time technique that enables large models to inherit the visual reasoning capabilities from small, slow-thinking visual reasoners without any training. By subtracting the output distributions of base models from those of RFT reasoners, ProxyThinker modifies the decoding dynamics and successfully elicits the slow-thinking reasoning demonstrated by the emerged sophisticated behaviors such as self-verification and self-correction. ProxyThinker consistently boosts performance on challenging visual benchmarks on spatial, mathematical, and multi-disciplinary reasoning, enabling untuned base models to compete with the performance of their full-scale RFT counterparts. Furthermore, our implementation efficiently coordinates multiple language models with parallelism techniques and achieves up to 38 times faster inference compared to previous decoding-time methods, paving the way for the practical deployment of ProxyThinker. Code is available at https://github.com/MrZilinXiao/ProxyThinker.

One long-term goal of machine learning research is to produce methods that are applicable to reasoning and natural language, in particular building an intelligent dialogue agent. To measure progress towards that goal, we argue for the usefulness of a set of proxy tasks that evaluate reading comprehension via question answering. Our tasks measure understanding in several ways: whether a system is able to answer questions via chaining facts, simple induction, deduction and many more. The tasks are designed to be prerequisites for any system that aims to be capable of conversing with a human. We believe many existing learning systems can currently not solve them, and hence our aim is to classify these tasks into skill sets, so that researchers can identify (and then rectify) the failings of their systems. We also extend and improve the recently introduced Memory Networks model, and show it is able to solve some, but not all, of the tasks.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by leveraging (conditional) instrumental variables, enabling estimation through encouragement and recommendation rather than strict treatment assignment. However, the sample efficiency of such estimators depends not only on the inherent variability in outcomes but also on the varying compliance levels of users with the instrumental variables and the choice of estimator being used, especially when dealing with numerous instrumental variables. While adaptive experiment design has a rich literature for direct experiments, in this paper we take the initial steps towards enhancing sample efficiency for indirect experiments by adaptively designing a data collection policy over instrumental variables. Our main contribution is a practical computational procedure that utilizes influence functions to search for an optimal data collection policy, minimizing the mean-squared error of the desired (non-linear) estimator. Through experiments conducted in various domains inspired by real-world applications, we showcase how our method can significantly improve the sample efficiency of indirect experiments.

Interference is ubiquitous when conducting causal experiments over networks. Except for certain network structures, causal inference on the network in the presence of interference is difficult due to the entanglement between the treatment assignments and the interference levels. In this article, we conduct causal inference under interference on an observed, sparse but connected network, and we propose a novel design of experiments based on an independent set. Compared to conventional designs, the independent-set design focuses on an independent subset of data and controls their interference exposures through the assignments to the rest (auxiliary set). We provide a lower bound on the size of the independent set from a greedy algorithm , and justify the theoretical performance of estimators under the proposed design. Our approach is capable of estimating both spillover effects and treatment effects. We justify its superiority over conventional methods and illustrate the empirical performance through simulations.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome indirectly via the treatment variable(s). Most IV applications focus on low-dimensional treatments and crucially require at least as many instruments as treatments. This assumption is restrictive: in the natural sciences we often seek to infer causal effects of high-dimensional treatments (e.g., the effect of gene expressions or microbiota on health and disease), but can only run few experiments with a limited number of instruments (e.g., drugs or antibiotics). In such underspecified problems, the full treatment effect is not identifiable in a single experiment even in the linear case. We show that one can still reliably recover the projection of the treatment effect onto the instrumented subspace and develop techniques to consistently combine such partial estimates from different sets of instruments. We then leverage our combined estimators in an algorithm that iteratively proposes the most informative instruments at each round of experimentation to maximize the overall information about the full causal effect.

As machine learning and algorithmic decision making systems are increasingly being leveraged in high-stakes human-in-the-loop settings, there is a pressing need to understand the rationale of their predictions. Researchers have responded to this need with explainable AI (XAI), but often proclaim interpretability axiomatically without evaluation. When these systems are evaluated, they are often tested through offline simulations with proxy metrics of interpretability (such as model complexity). We empirically evaluate the veracity of three common interpretability assumptions through a large scale human-subjects experiment with a simple "placebo explanation" control. We find that feature attribution explanations provide marginal utility in our task for a human decision maker and in certain cases result in worse decisions due to cognitive and contextual confounders. This result challenges the assumed universal benefit of applying these methods and we hope this work will underscore the importance of human evaluation in XAI research. Supplemental materials -- including anonymized data from the experiment, code to replicate the study, an interactive demo of the experiment, and the models used in the analysis -- can be found at: https://doi.pizza/challenging-xai.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

We study a missing-value imputation method, termed kNNSampler, that imputes a given unit's missing response by randomly sampling from the observed responses of the k most similar units to the given unit in terms of the observed covariates. This method can sample unknown missing values from their distributions, quantify the uncertainties of missing values, and be readily used for multiple imputation. Unlike popular kNNImputer, which estimates the conditional mean of a missing response given an observed covariate, kNNSampler is theoretically shown to estimate the conditional distribution of a missing response given an observed covariate. Experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in recovering the distribution of missing values. The code for kNNSampler is made publicly available (https://github.com/SAP/knn-sampler).

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the benchmark for causal inference, yet field implementation can deviate. We here present a remote audit - a design-based, preregistrable diagnostic that uses only pre-treatment satellite imagery to test whether assignment is independent of local conditions. The conditional randomization test of the remote audit evaluates whether treatment assignment is more predictable from pre-treatment satellite features than expected under the experiment's registered mechanism, providing a finite-sample valid, design-based diagnostic that requires no parametric assumptions. The procedure is finite-sample valid, honors blocks and clusters, and controls multiplicity across image models and resolutions via a max-statistic. We illustrate with two RCTs: Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program, where the audit corroborates randomization and flags selection and missing-data risks; and a school-based trial in Bangladesh, where assignment is highly predictable from pre-treatment features relative to the stated design, consistent with independent concerns about irregularities. Remote audits complement balance tests, lower early-stage costs, and enable rapid design checks when baseline surveys are expensive or infeasible.

We introduce a new type of test, called a Turing Experiment (TE), for evaluating how well a language model, such as GPT-3, can simulate different aspects of human behavior. Unlike the Turing Test, which involves simulating a single arbitrary individual, a TE requires simulating a representative sample of participants in human subject research. We give TEs that attempt to replicate well-established findings in prior studies. We design a methodology for simulating TEs and illustrate its use to compare how well different language models are able to reproduce classic economic, psycholinguistic, and social psychology experiments: Ultimatum Game, Garden Path Sentences, Milgram Shock Experiment, and Wisdom of Crowds. In the first three TEs, the existing findings were replicated using recent models, while the last TE reveals a "hyper-accuracy distortion" present in some language models.

Recent work has demonstrated that controlled pretraining experiments are a powerful tool for understanding learning, reasoning, and memorization in large language models (LLMs). However, the computational cost of pretraining presents a significant constraint. To overcome this constraint, we propose to conduct multiple pretraining experiments simultaneously during a single training run. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach by conducting ten experiments during the training of a 1.5B parameter model on 210B tokens. Although we only train a single model, we can replicate the results from multiple previous works on data contamination, poisoning, and memorization. We also conduct novel investigations into knowledge acquisition, mathematical reasoning, and watermarking. For example, we dynamically update the training data until the model acquires a particular piece of knowledge. Remarkably, the influence of the ten experiments on the model's training dynamics and overall performance is minimal. However, interactions between different experiments may act as a potential confounder in our approach. We propose to test for interactions with continual pretraining experiments, finding them to be negligible in our setup. Overall, our findings suggest that performing multiple pretraining experiments in a single training run can enable rigorous scientific experimentation with large models on a compute budget.

Is explainability a false promise? This debate has emerged from the insufficient evidence that explanations aid people in situations they are introduced for. More human-centered, application-grounded evaluations of explanations are needed to settle this. Yet, with no established guidelines for such studies in NLP, researchers accustomed to standardized proxy evaluations must discover appropriate measurements, tasks, datasets, and sensible models for human-AI teams in their studies. To help with this, we first review fitting existing metrics. We then establish requirements for datasets to be suitable for application-grounded evaluations. Among over 50 datasets available for explainability research in NLP, we find that 4 meet our criteria. By finetuning Flan-T5-3B, we demonstrate the importance of reassessing the state of the art to form and study human-AI teams. Finally, we present the exemplar studies of human-AI decision-making for one of the identified suitable tasks -- verifying the correctness of a legal claim given a contract.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

While in-context Learning (ICL) has proven to be an effective technique to improve the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) in a variety of complex tasks, notably in translating natural language questions into Structured Query Language (NL2SQL), the question of how to select the most beneficial demonstration examples remains an open research problem. While prior works often adapted off-the-shelf encoders to retrieve examples dynamically, an inherent discrepancy exists in the representational capacities between the external retrievers and the LLMs. Further, optimizing the selection of examples is a non-trivial task, since there are no straightforward methods to assess the relative benefits of examples without performing pairwise inference. To address these shortcomings, we propose DeTriever, a novel demonstration retrieval framework that learns a weighted combination of LLM hidden states, where rich semantic information is encoded. To train the model, we propose a proxy score that estimates the relative benefits of examples based on the similarities between output queries. Experiments on two popular NL2SQL benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines on one-shot NL2SQL tasks.

In reinforcement learning from human feedback, it is common to optimize against a reward model trained to predict human preferences. Because the reward model is an imperfect proxy, optimizing its value too much can hinder ground truth performance, in accordance with Goodhart's law. This effect has been frequently observed, but not carefully measured due to the expense of collecting human preference data. In this work, we use a synthetic setup in which a fixed "gold-standard" reward model plays the role of humans, providing labels used to train a proxy reward model. We study how the gold reward model score changes as we optimize against the proxy reward model using either reinforcement learning or best-of-n sampling. We find that this relationship follows a different functional form depending on the method of optimization, and that in both cases its coefficients scale smoothly with the number of reward model parameters. We also study the effect on this relationship of the size of the reward model dataset, the number of reward model and policy parameters, and the coefficient of the KL penalty added to the reward in the reinforcement learning setup. We explore the implications of these empirical results for theoretical considerations in AI alignment.

Text-to-image diffusion models excel at generating high-quality, diverse images from natural language prompts. However, they often fail to produce semantically accurate results when the prompt contains concept combinations that contradict their learned priors. We define this failure mode as contextual contradiction, where one concept implicitly negates another due to entangled associations learned during training. To address this, we propose a stage-aware prompt decomposition framework that guides the denoising process using a sequence of proxy prompts. Each proxy prompt is constructed to match the semantic content expected to emerge at a specific stage of denoising, while ensuring contextual coherence. To construct these proxy prompts, we leverage a large language model (LLM) to analyze the target prompt, identify contradictions, and generate alternative expressions that preserve the original intent while resolving contextual conflicts. By aligning prompt information with the denoising progression, our method enables fine-grained semantic control and accurate image generation in the presence of contextual contradictions. Experiments across a variety of challenging prompts show substantial improvements in alignment to the textual prompt.

Implementing a reward function that perfectly captures a complex task in the real world is impractical. As a result, it is often appropriate to think of the reward function as a proxy for the true objective rather than as its definition. We study this phenomenon through the lens of Goodhart's law, which predicts that increasing optimisation of an imperfect proxy beyond some critical point decreases performance on the true objective. First, we propose a way to quantify the magnitude of this effect and show empirically that optimising an imperfect proxy reward often leads to the behaviour predicted by Goodhart's law for a wide range of environments and reward functions. We then provide a geometric explanation for why Goodhart's law occurs in Markov decision processes. We use these theoretical insights to propose an optimal early stopping method that provably avoids the aforementioned pitfall and derive theoretical regret bounds for this method. Moreover, we derive a training method that maximises worst-case reward, for the setting where there is uncertainty about the true reward function. Finally, we evaluate our early stopping method experimentally. Our results support a foundation for a theoretically-principled study of reinforcement learning under reward misspecification.

We consider in this paper the problem of optimal experiment design where a decision maker can choose which points to sample to obtain an estimate hatβ of the hidden parameter β^{star} of an underlying linear model. The key challenge of this work lies in the heteroscedasticity assumption that we make, meaning that each covariate has a different and unknown variance. The goal of the decision maker is then to figure out on the fly the optimal way to allocate the total budget of T samples between covariates, as sampling several times a specific one will reduce the variance of the estimated model around it (but at the cost of a possible higher variance elsewhere). By trying to minimize the ell^2-loss E [lVerthatβ-β^{star}rVert^2] the decision maker is actually minimizing the trace of the covariance matrix of the problem, which corresponds then to online A-optimal design. Combining techniques from bandit and convex optimization we propose a new active sampling algorithm and we compare it with existing ones. We provide theoretical guarantees of this algorithm in different settings, including a O(T^{-2}) regret bound in the case where the covariates form a basis of the feature space, generalizing and improving existing results. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.

Deep learning has revolutionized computer vision, but it achieved its tremendous success using deep network architectures which are mostly hand-crafted and therefore likely suboptimal. Neural Architecture Search (NAS) aims to bridge this gap by following a well-defined optimization paradigm which systematically looks for the best architecture, given objective criterion such as maximal classification accuracy. The main limitation of NAS is however its astronomical computational cost, as it typically requires training each candidate network architecture from scratch. In this paper, we aim to alleviate this limitation by proposing a novel training-free proxy for image classification accuracy based on Fisher Information. The proposed proxy has a strong theoretical background in statistics and it allows estimating expected image classification accuracy of a given deep network without training the network, thus significantly reducing computational cost of standard NAS algorithms. Our training-free proxy achieves state-of-the-art results on three public datasets and in two search spaces, both when evaluated using previously proposed metrics, as well as using a new metric that we propose which we demonstrate is more informative for practical NAS applications. The source code is publicly available at http://www.github.com/ondratybl/VKDNW

Diffusion models excel at capturing the natural design spaces of images, molecules, DNA, RNA, and protein sequences. However, rather than merely generating designs that are natural, we often aim to optimize downstream reward functions while preserving the naturalness of these design spaces. Existing methods for achieving this goal often require ``differentiable'' proxy models (e.g., classifier guidance or DPS) or involve computationally expensive fine-tuning of diffusion models (e.g., classifier-free guidance, RL-based fine-tuning). In our work, we propose a new method to address these challenges. Our algorithm is an iterative sampling method that integrates soft value functions, which looks ahead to how intermediate noisy states lead to high rewards in the future, into the standard inference procedure of pre-trained diffusion models. Notably, our approach avoids fine-tuning generative models and eliminates the need to construct differentiable models. This enables us to (1) directly utilize non-differentiable features/reward feedback, commonly used in many scientific domains, and (2) apply our method to recent discrete diffusion models in a principled way. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm across several domains, including image generation, molecule generation, and DNA/RNA sequence generation. The code is available at https://github.com/masa-ue/SVDD{https://github.com/masa-ue/SVDD}.

AI-powered chatbots (ChatGPT, Claude, etc.) require users to create an account using their email and phone number, thereby linking their personally identifiable information to their conversational data and usage patterns. As these chatbots are increasingly being used for tasks involving sensitive information, privacy concerns have been raised about how chatbot providers handle user data. To address these concerns, we present ProxyGPT, a privacy-enhancing system that enables anonymous queries in popular chatbot platforms. ProxyGPT leverages volunteer proxies to submit user queries on their behalf, thus providing network-level anonymity for chatbot users. The system is designed to support key security properties such as content integrity via TLS-backed data provenance, end-to-end encryption, and anonymous payment, while also ensuring usability and sustainability. We provide a thorough analysis of the privacy, security, and integrity of our system and identify various future research directions, particularly in the area of private chatbot query synthesis. Our human evaluation shows that ProxyGPT offers users a greater sense of privacy compared to traditional AI chatbots, especially in scenarios where users are hesitant to share their identity with chatbot providers. Although our proof-of-concept has higher latency than popular chatbots, our human interview participants consider this to be an acceptable trade-off for anonymity. To the best of our knowledge, ProxyGPT is the first comprehensive proxy-based solution for privacy-preserving AI chatbots. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/dzungvpham/proxygpt.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Hypothesis ranking is a crucial component of automated scientific discovery, particularly in natural sciences where wet-lab experiments are costly and throughput-limited. Existing approaches focus on pre-experiment ranking, relying solely on large language model's internal reasoning without incorporating empirical outcomes from experiments. We introduce the task of experiment-guided ranking, which aims to prioritize candidate hypotheses based on the results of previously tested ones. However, developing such strategies is challenging due to the impracticality of repeatedly conducting real experiments in natural science domains. To address this, we propose a simulator grounded in three domain-informed assumptions, modeling hypothesis performance as a function of similarity to a known ground truth hypothesis, perturbed by noise. We curate a dataset of 124 chemistry hypotheses with experimentally reported outcomes to validate the simulator. Building on this simulator, we develop a pseudo experiment-guided ranking method that clusters hypotheses by shared functional characteristics and prioritizes candidates based on insights derived from simulated experimental feedback. Experiments show that our method outperforms pre-experiment baselines and strong ablations.

Hypothetical induction is recognized as the main reasoning type when scientists make observations about the world and try to propose hypotheses to explain those observations. Past research on hypothetical induction is under a constrained setting: (1) the observation annotations in the dataset are carefully manually handpicked sentences (resulting in a close-domain setting); and (2) the ground truth hypotheses are mostly commonsense knowledge, making the task less challenging. In this work, we tackle these problems by proposing the first dataset for social science academic hypotheses discovery, with the final goal to create systems that automatically generate valid, novel, and helpful scientific hypotheses, given only a pile of raw web corpus. Unlike previous settings, the new dataset requires (1) using open-domain data (raw web corpus) as observations; and (2) proposing hypotheses even new to humanity. A multi-module framework is developed for the task, including three different feedback mechanisms to boost performance, which exhibits superior performance in terms of both GPT-4 based and expert-based evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work showing that LLMs are able to generate novel (''not existing in literature'') and valid (''reflecting reality'') scientific hypotheses.

Human mesh recovery from multi-view images faces a fundamental challenge: real-world datasets contain imperfect ground-truth annotations that bias the models' training, while synthetic data with precise supervision suffers from domain gap. In this paper, we propose DiffProxy, a novel framework that generates multi-view consistent human proxies for mesh recovery. Central to DiffProxy is leveraging the diffusion-based generative priors to bridge the synthetic training and real-world generalization. Its key innovations include: (1) a multi-conditional mechanism for generating multi-view consistent, pixel-aligned human proxies; (2) a hand refinement module that incorporates flexible visual prompts to enhance local details; and (3) an uncertainty-aware test-time scaling method that increases robustness to challenging cases during optimization. These designs ensure that the mesh recovery process effectively benefits from the precise synthetic ground truth and generative advantages of the diffusion-based pipeline. Trained entirely on synthetic data, DiffProxy achieves state-of-the-art performance across five real-world benchmarks, demonstrating strong zero-shot generalization particularly on challenging scenarios with occlusions and partial views. Project page: https://wrk226.github.io/DiffProxy.html

Frontier models that generate extended reasoning traces inadvertently produce rich token sequences that can facilitate model distillation. Recognizing this vulnerability, model owners may seek sampling strategies that limit the effectiveness of distillation without compromising model performance. Antidistillation sampling provides exactly this capability. By strategically modifying a model's next-token probability distribution, antidistillation sampling poisons reasoning traces, rendering them significantly less effective for distillation while preserving the model's practical utility. For further details, see https://antidistillation.com.

Because it is difficult to precisely specify complex objectives, reinforcement learning policies are often optimized using proxy reward functions that only approximate the true goal. However, optimizing proxy rewards frequently leads to reward hacking: the optimized reward function ceases to be a good proxy and the resulting policy performs poorly with respect to the unspecified true reward. Principled solutions to reward hacking have been impeded by the lack of a good definition for the problem. To address this gap, we introduce a definition of reward hacking based on the correlation between proxy and true rewards for states and actions seen by a "base policy" that breaks down under optimization. We show that this definition captures reward hacking behavior across several realistic settings, including in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Using our formulation, we show theoretically that regularization to the base policy can effectively prevent reward hacking. While the current practice in RLHF applies a KL penalty between action distributions for this purpose, our theory suggests regularizing the chi^2 divergence between the policies' occupancy measures can be more effective. We intuitively show the benefits of this type of regularization and demonstrate that it better mitigates reward hacking in practice across four realistic settings, including RLHF. Our code is available at https://github.com/cassidylaidlaw/orpo.

We consider the classic supervised learning problem, where a continuous non-negative random label Y (i.e. a random duration) is to be predicted based upon observing a random vector X valued in R^d with dgeq 1 by means of a regression rule with minimum least square error. In various applications, ranging from industrial quality control to public health through credit risk analysis for instance, training observations can be right censored, meaning that, rather than on independent copies of (X,Y), statistical learning relies on a collection of ngeq 1 independent realizations of the triplet (X, ; min{Y,; C},; δ), where C is a nonnegative r.v. with unknown distribution, modeling censorship and δ=I{Yleq C} indicates whether the duration is right censored or not. As ignoring censorship in the risk computation may clearly lead to a severe underestimation of the target duration and jeopardize prediction, we propose to consider a plug-in estimate of the true risk based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator of the conditional survival function of the censorship C given X, referred to as Kaplan-Meier risk, in order to perform empirical risk minimization. It is established, under mild conditions, that the learning rate of minimizers of this biased/weighted empirical risk functional is of order O_{P}(log(n)/n) when ignoring model bias issues inherent to plug-in estimation, as can be attained in absence of censorship. Beyond theoretical results, numerical experiments are presented in order to illustrate the relevance of the approach developed.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has propelled Large Language Models in complex reasoning, yet its scalability is often hindered by a training bottleneck where performance plateaus as policy entropy collapses, signaling a loss of exploration. Previous methods typically address this by maintaining high policy entropy, yet the precise mechanisms that govern meaningful exploration have remained underexplored. Our analysis suggests that an unselective focus on entropy risks amplifying irrelevant tokens and destabilizing training. This paper investigates the exploration dynamics within RLVR and identifies a key issue: the gradual elimination of valuable low-probability exploratory tokens, which we term \textit{reasoning sparks}. We find that while abundant in pre-trained models, these sparks are systematically extinguished during RLVR due to over-penalization, leading to a degeneracy in exploration. To address this, we introduce Low-probability Regularization (Lp-Reg). Its core mechanism regularizes the policy towards a heuristic proxy distribution. This proxy is constructed by filtering out presumed noise tokens and re-normalizing the distribution over the remaining candidates. The result is a less-noisy proxy where the probability of reasoning sparks is amplified, which then serves as a soft regularization target to shield these valuable tokens from elimination via KL divergence. Experiments show that Lp-Reg enables stable on-policy training for around 1,000 steps, a regime where baseline entropy-control methods collapse. This sustained exploration leads to state-of-the-art performance, achieving a 60.17% average accuracy on five math benchmarks, an improvement of 2.66% over prior methods. Code is available at https://github.com/CarlanLark/Lp-Reg.

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.

We survey clinical document corpora, with focus on German textual data. Due to rigid data privacy legislation in Germany these resources, with only few exceptions, are stored in safe clinical data spaces and locked against clinic-external researchers. This situation stands in stark contrast with established workflows in the field of natural language processing where easy accessibility and reuse of data collections are common practice. Hence, alternative corpus designs have been examined to escape from this data poverty. Besides machine translation of English clinical datasets and the generation of synthetic corpora with fictitious clinical contents, several other types of domain proxies have come up as substitutes for authentic clinical documents. Common instances of close proxies are medical journal publications, clinical therapy guidelines, drug labels, etc., more distant proxies include online encyclopedic medical articles or medical contents from social media channels. After PRISM-conformant screening of 359 hits from four bibliographic systems, 75 relevant documents were finally selected for this review and 59 distinct corpora were determined. We identified 24 real clinical corpora (from 40 publications) out of which only 5 are publicly distributable. 2 translations of real corpora and 3 synthetic ones complement the set of clinical corpora. 14 corpora were categorized as close domain proxies, 16 as distant ones. There is a clear divide between the large number of non-accessible authentic clinical German-language corpora and their publicly accessible substitutes: translated or synthetic, close or more distant proxies. So on first sight, the data bottleneck seems broken. Intuitively yet, differences in genre-specific writing style, wording and medical domain expertise in this typological space are also obvious. This raises the question how valid alternative corpus designs really are.

We present a generic framework for creating differentially private versions of any hypothesis test in a black-box way. We analyze the resulting tests analytically and experimentally. Most crucially, we show good practical performance for small data sets, showing that at epsilon = 1 we only need 5-6 times as much data as in the fully public setting. We compare our work to the one existing framework of this type, as well as to several individually-designed private hypothesis tests. Our framework is higher power than other generic solutions and at least competitive with (and often better than) individually-designed tests.

The focus of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of Machine Learning (ML) methods for two-sample testing with right-censored observations. To achieve this, we develop several ML-based methods with varying architectures and implement them as two-sample tests. Each method is an ensemble (stacking) that combines predictions from classical two-sample tests. This paper presents the results of training the proposed ML methods, examines their statistical power compared to classical two-sample tests, analyzes the distribution of test statistics for the proposed methods when the null hypothesis is true, and evaluates the significance of the features incorporated into the proposed methods. All results from numerical experiments were obtained from a synthetic dataset generated using the Smirnov transform (Inverse Transform Sampling) and replicated multiple times through Monte Carlo simulation. To test the two-sample problem with right-censored observations, one can use the proposed two-sample methods. All necessary materials (source code, example scripts, dataset, and samples) are available on GitHub and Hugging Face.

In the applications of proxy-SU(3) model in the context of determining (beta,gamma) values for nuclei across the periodic table, for understanding the preponderance of triaxial shapes in nuclei with Z ge 30, it is seen that one needs not only the highest weight (hw) or leading SU(3) irreducible representation (irrep) (lambda_H, mu_H) but also the lower SU(3) irreps (lambda ,mu) such that 2lambda + mu =2lambda_H + mu_H-3r with r=0,1 and 2 [Bonatsos et al., Symmetry {\bf 16}, 1625 (2024)]. These give the next highest weight (nhw) irrep, next-to-next highest irrep (nnhw) and so on. Recently, it is shown that for nuclei with 32 le Z,N le 46, there will be not only proxy-SU(3) but also proxy-SU(4) symmetry [Kota and Sahu, Physica Scripta {\bf 99}, 065306 (2024)]. Following these developments, presented in this paper are the SU(3) irreps (lambda ,mu) with 2lambda + mu =2lambda_H + mu_H-3r, r=0,1,2 for various isotopes of Ge, Se, Kr, Sr, Zr, Mo, Ru and Pd (with 32 le N le 46) assuming good proxy-SU(4) symmetry. A simple method for obtaining the SU(3) irreps is described and applied. The tabulations for proxy-SU(3) irreps provided in this paper will be useful in further investigations of triaxial shapes in these nuclei.

We introduce a fairness-aware dataset for job recommendation in advertising, designed to foster research in algorithmic fairness within real-world scenarios. It was collected and prepared to comply with privacy standards and business confidentiality. An additional challenge is the lack of access to protected user attributes such as gender, for which we propose a solution to obtain a proxy estimate. Despite being anonymized and including a proxy for a sensitive attribute, our dataset preserves predictive power and maintains a realistic and challenging benchmark. This dataset addresses a significant gap in the availability of fairness-focused resources for high-impact domains like advertising -- the actual impact being having access or not to precious employment opportunities, where balancing fairness and utility is a common industrial challenge. We also explore various stages in the advertising process where unfairness can occur and introduce a method to compute a fair utility metric for the job recommendations in online systems case from a biased dataset. Experimental evaluations of bias mitigation techniques on the released dataset demonstrate potential improvements in fairness and the associated trade-offs with utility.

Hollmann et al. (Nature 637 (2025) 319-326) recently introduced TabPFN, a transformer-based deep learning model for regression and classification on tabular data, which they claim "outperforms all previous methods on datasets with up to 10,000 samples by a wide margin, using substantially less training time." Furthermore, they have called TabPFN a "foundation model" for tabular data, as it can support "data generation, density estimation, learning reusable embeddings and fine-tuning". In this paper, we provide a tailored explanation of how TabPFN works for a statistics audience, by emphasizing its interpretation as approximate Bayesian inference. We then explore the significance of TabPFN to the field of statistics: We show that an out-of-the-box application of TabPFN can sometimes outperform specialized state-of-the-art methods for semi-supervised parameter estimation, prediction under covariate shift, and heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. As a partial explanation for the predictive effectiveness of TabPFN, we show that it can simultaneously adapt to both nonparametric structure and parametric structure, for instance, sometimes outperforming LASSO even when assumptions are correctly specified. All experiments can be reproduced using the code provided at https://github.com/qinglong-tian/tabpfn_study (https://github.com/qinglong-tian/tabpfn_study).

Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) is at the core of training modern large machine learning models, providing a scheme for learning powerful representations that can be used in a variety of downstream tasks. However, SSL strategies must be adapted to the type of training data and downstream tasks required. We propose RS3L ("Re-simulation-based self-supervised representation learning"), a novel simulation-based SSL strategy that employs a method of re-simulation to drive data augmentation for contrastive learning in the physical sciences, particularly, in fields that rely on stochastic simulators. By intervening in the middle of the simulation process and re-running simulation components downstream of the intervention, we generate multiple realizations of an event, thus producing a set of augmentations covering all physics-driven variations available in the simulator. Using experiments from high-energy physics, we explore how this strategy may enable the development of a foundation model; we show how RS3L pre-training enables powerful performance in downstream tasks such as discrimination of a variety of objects and uncertainty mitigation. In addition to our results, we make the RS3L dataset publicly available for further studies on how to improve SSL strategies.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Full quantum tomography of high-dimensional quantum systems is experimentally infeasible due to the exponential scaling of the number of required measurements on the number of qubits in the system. However, several ideas were proposed recently for predicting the limited number of features for these states, or estimating the expectation values of operators, without the need for full state reconstruction. These ideas go under the general name of shadow tomography. Here we provide an experimental demonstration of property estimation based on classical shadows proposed in [H.-Y. Huang, R. Kueng, J. Preskill. Nat. Phys. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-020-0932-7 (2020)] and study its performance in the quantum optical experiment with high-dimensional spatial states of photons. We show on experimental data how this procedure outperforms conventional state reconstruction in fidelity estimation from a limited number of measurements.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

We study improving social conversational agents by learning from natural dialogue between users and a deployed model, without extra annotations. To implicitly measure the quality of a machine-generated utterance, we leverage signals like user response length, sentiment and reaction of the future human utterances in the collected dialogue episodes. Our experiments use the publicly released deployment data from BlenderBot (Xu et al., 2023). Human evaluation indicates improvements in our new models over baseline responses; however, we find that some proxy signals can lead to more generations with undesirable properties as well. For example, optimizing for conversation length can lead to more controversial or unfriendly generations compared to the baseline, whereas optimizing for positive sentiment or reaction can decrease these behaviors.

Science and Engineering fairs offer K-12 students opportunities to engage with authentic STEM practices. Particularly, students are given the chance to experience authentic and open inquiry processes, by defining which themes, questions and approaches will guide their scientific endeavors. In this study, we analyzed data from over 5,000 projects presented at a nationwide science fair in Brazil over the past 20 years using topic modeling to identify the main topics that have driven students' inquiry and design. Our analysis identified a broad range of topics being explored, with significant variations over time, region, and school setting. We argue those results and proposed methodology can not only support further research in the context of science fairs, but also inform instruction and design of contexts-specific resources to support students in open inquiry experiences in different settings.

At the core of Deep Research is knowledge mining, the task of extracting structured information from massive unstructured text in response to user instructions. Large language models (LLMs) excel at interpreting such instructions but are prohibitively expensive to deploy at scale, while traditional pipelines of classifiers and extractors remain efficient yet brittle and unable to generalize to new tasks. We introduce Falconer, a collaborative framework that combines the agentic reasoning of LLMs with lightweight proxy models for scalable knowledge mining. In Falconer, LLMs act as planners, decomposing user instructions into executable pipelines, and as annotators, generating supervision to train small proxies. The framework unifies classification and extraction into two atomic operations, get label and get span, enabling a single instruction-following model to replace multiple task-specific components. To evaluate the consistency between proxy models incubated by Falconer and annotations provided by humans and large models, we construct new benchmarks covering both planning and end-to-end execution. Experiments show that Falconer closely matches state-of-the-art LLMs in instruction-following accuracy while reducing inference cost by up to 90% and accelerating large-scale knowledge mining by more than 20x, offering an efficient and scalable foundation for Deep Research.

Despite rapid gains in scale, research evaluation still relies on opaque, lagging proxies. To serve the scientific community, we pursue transparency: reproducible, auditable epistemic classification useful for funding and policy. Here we formalize KGX3 as a scenario-based model for mapping Kuhnian stages from research papers, prove determinism of the classification pipeline, and define the epistemic manifold that yields paradigm maps. We report validation across recent corpora, operational complexity at global scale, and governance that preserves interpretability while protecting core IP. The system delivers early, actionable signals of drift, crisis, and shift unavailable to citation metrics or citations-anchored NLP. KGX3 is the latest iteration of a deterministic epistemic engine developed since 2019, originating as Soph.io (2020), advanced as iKuhn (2024), and field-tested through Preprint Watch in 2025.

Recent video diffusion models can synthesize visually compelling clips, yet often violate basic physical laws-objects float, accelerations drift, and collisions behave inconsistently-revealing a persistent gap between visual realism and physical realism. We propose NewtonRewards, the first physics-grounded post-training framework for video generation based on verifiable rewards. Instead of relying on human or VLM feedback, NewtonRewards extracts measurable proxies from generated videos using frozen utility models: optical flow serves as a proxy for velocity, while high-level appearance features serve as a proxy for mass. These proxies enable explicit enforcement of Newtonian structure through two complementary rewards: a Newtonian kinematic constraint enforcing constant-acceleration dynamics, and a mass conservation reward preventing trivial, degenerate solutions. We evaluate NewtonRewards on five Newtonian Motion Primitives (free fall, horizontal/parabolic throw, and ramp sliding down/up) using our newly constructed large-scale benchmark, NewtonBench-60K. Across all primitives in visual and physics metrics, NewtonRewards consistently improves physical plausibility, motion smoothness, and temporal coherence over prior post-training methods. It further maintains strong performance under out-of-distribution shifts in height, speed, and friction. Our results show that physics-grounded verifiable rewards offer a scalable path toward physics-aware video generation.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

We propose an extension of the decoder Transformer that conditions its generative process on random latent variables which are learned without supervision thanks to a variational procedure. Experimental evaluations show that allowing such a conditioning translates into substantial improvements on downstream tasks.

Understanding and manipulating the causal generation mechanisms in language models is essential for controlling their behavior. Previous work has primarily relied on techniques such as representation surgery -- e.g., model ablations or manipulation of linear subspaces tied to specific concepts -- to intervene on these models. To understand the impact of interventions precisely, it is useful to examine counterfactuals -- e.g., how a given sentence would have appeared had it been generated by the model following a specific intervention. We highlight that counterfactual reasoning is conceptually distinct from interventions, as articulated in Pearl's causal hierarchy. Based on this observation, we propose a framework for generating true string counterfactuals by reformulating language models as Generalized Structural-equation. Models using the Gumbel-max trick. This allows us to model the joint distribution over original strings and their counterfactuals resulting from the same instantiation of the sampling noise. We develop an algorithm based on hindsight Gumbel sampling that allows us to infer the latent noise variables and generate counterfactuals of observed strings. Our experiments demonstrate that the approach produces meaningful counterfactuals while at the same time showing that commonly used intervention techniques have considerable undesired side effects.

We propose a new framework for estimating generative models via an adversarial process, in which we simultaneously train two models: a generative model G that captures the data distribution, and a discriminative model D that estimates the probability that a sample came from the training data rather than G. The training procedure for G is to maximize the probability of D making a mistake. This framework corresponds to a minimax two-player game. In the space of arbitrary functions G and D, a unique solution exists, with G recovering the training data distribution and D equal to 1/2 everywhere. In the case where G and D are defined by multilayer perceptrons, the entire system can be trained with backpropagation. There is no need for any Markov chains or unrolled approximate inference networks during either training or generation of samples. Experiments demonstrate the potential of the framework through qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the generated samples.

We introduce a gradient-based approach for the problem of Bayesian optimal experimental design to learn causal models in a batch setting -- a critical component for causal discovery from finite data where interventions can be costly or risky. Existing methods rely on greedy approximations to construct a batch of experiments while using black-box methods to optimize over a single target-state pair to intervene with. In this work, we completely dispose of the black-box optimization techniques and greedy heuristics and instead propose a conceptually simple end-to-end gradient-based optimization procedure to acquire a set of optimal intervention target-state pairs. Such a procedure enables parameterization of the design space to efficiently optimize over a batch of multi-target-state interventions, a setting which has hitherto not been explored due to its complexity. We demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baselines and existing acquisition strategies in both single-target and multi-target settings across a number of synthetic datasets.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually investigating each dimension of heterogeneity becomes overly cumbersome and prone to subjective human biases. We need an efficient way to search through thousands of experiments with hundreds of target covariates and hundreds of breakdown dimensions. In this paper, we propose a systematic paradigm for detecting, surfacing and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. First, we detect if treatment effect variation is present in an experiment, prior to specifying any breakdowns. Second, we surface the most relevant dimensions for heterogeneity. Finally, we characterize the heterogeneity beyond just the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) by studying the conditional distributions of the estimated individual treatment effects. We show the effectiveness of our methods using simulated data and empirical studies.

We study subliminal learning, a surprising phenomenon where language models transmit behavioral traits via semantically unrelated data. In our main experiments, a "teacher" model with some trait T (such as liking owls or being misaligned) generates a dataset consisting solely of number sequences. Remarkably, a "student" model trained on this dataset learns T. This occurs even when the data is filtered to remove references to T. We observe the same effect when training on code or reasoning traces generated by the same teacher model. However, we do not observe the effect when the teacher and student have different base models. To help explain our findings, we prove a theoretical result showing that subliminal learning occurs in all neural networks under certain conditions, and demonstrate subliminal learning in a simple MLP classifier. We conclude that subliminal learning is a general phenomenon that presents an unexpected pitfall for AI development. Distillation could propagate unintended traits, even when developers try to prevent this via data filtering.

Modern neural networks are often trained on massive datasets that are web scraped with minimal human inspection. As a result of this insecure curation pipeline, an adversary can poison or backdoor the resulting model by uploading malicious data to the internet and waiting for a victim to scrape and train on it. Existing approaches for creating poisons and backdoors start with randomly sampled clean data, called base samples, and then modify those samples to craft poisons. However, some base samples may be significantly more amenable to poisoning than others. As a result, we may be able to craft more potent poisons by carefully choosing the base samples. In this work, we use guided diffusion to synthesize base samples from scratch that lead to significantly more potent poisons and backdoors than previous state-of-the-art attacks. Our Guided Diffusion Poisoning (GDP) base samples can be combined with any downstream poisoning or backdoor attack to boost its effectiveness. Our implementation code is publicly available at: https://github.com/hsouri/GDP .

We investigate the use of a stratified sampling approach for LIME Image, a popular model-agnostic explainable AI method for computer vision tasks, in order to reduce the artifacts generated by typical Monte Carlo sampling. Such artifacts are due to the undersampling of the dependent variable in the synthetic neighborhood around the image being explained, which may result in inadequate explanations due to the impossibility of fitting a linear regressor on the sampled data. We then highlight a connection with the Shapley theory, where similar arguments about undersampling and sample relevance were suggested in the past. We derive all the formulas and adjustment factors required for an unbiased stratified sampling estimator. Experiments show the efficacy of the proposed approach.

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

With an increasing number of replication studies performed in psychological science, the question of how to evaluate the outcome of a replication attempt deserves careful consideration. Bayesian approaches allow to incorporate uncertainty and prior information into the analysis of the replication attempt by their design. The Replication Bayes Factor, introduced by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014), provides quantitative, relative evidence in favor or against a successful replication. In previous work by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014) it was limited to the case of t-tests. In this paper, the Replication Bayes Factor is extended to F-tests in multi-group, fixed-effect ANOVA designs. Simulations and examples are presented to facilitate the understanding and to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach. Finally, the Replication Bayes Factor is compared to other Bayesian and frequentist approaches and discussed in the context of replication attempts. R code to calculate Replication Bayes factors and to reproduce the examples in the paper is available at https://osf.io/jv39h/.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

In this work, we investigate the implicit regularization induced by teacher-student learning dynamics in self-distillation. To isolate its effect, we describe a simple experiment where we consider teachers at random initialization instead of trained teachers. Surprisingly, when distilling a student into such a random teacher, we observe that the resulting model and its representations already possess very interesting characteristics; (1) we observe a strong improvement of the distilled student over its teacher in terms of probing accuracy. (2) The learned representations are data-dependent and transferable between different tasks but deteriorate strongly if trained on random inputs. (3) The student checkpoint contains sparse subnetworks, so-called lottery tickets, and lies on the border of linear basins in the supervised loss landscape. These observations have interesting consequences for several important areas in machine learning: (1) Self-distillation can work solely based on the implicit regularization present in the gradient dynamics without relying on any dark knowledge, (2) self-supervised learning can learn features even in the absence of data augmentation and (3) training dynamics during the early phase of supervised training do not necessarily require label information. Finally, we shed light on an intriguing local property of the loss landscape: the process of feature learning is strongly amplified if the student is initialized closely to the teacher. These results raise interesting questions about the nature of the landscape that have remained unexplored so far. Code is available at https://github.com/safelix/dinopl.

Foundation Models are neural networks that are capable of simultaneously solving many problems. Large Language Foundation Models like ChatGPT have revolutionized many aspects of daily life, but their impact for science is not yet clear. In this paper, we use a new Foundation Model for hadronic jets to solve three key challenges in collider physics. In particular, we show how experiments can (1) save significant computing power when developing reconstruction algorithms, (2) perform a complete uncertainty quantification for high-dimensional measurements, and (3) search for new physics with model agnostic methods using low-level inputs. In each case, there are significant computational or methodological challenges with current methods that limit the science potential of deep learning algorithms. By solving each problem, we take jet Foundation Models beyond proof-of-principle studies and into the toolkit of practitioners.

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

The artifact used for evaluating the experimental results of Measuring and Mitigating Gaps in Structural Testing is publicly available on GitHub, Software Heritage and figshare, and is reusable. The artifact consists of necessary data, tools, scripts, and detailed documentation for running the experiments and reproducing the results shown in the paper. We have also provided a VirtualBox VM image allowing users to quickly setup and reproduce the results. Users are expected to be familiar using the VirtualBox software and Linux platform for evaluating or reusing the artifact.

We test whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can be used to simulate human participants in social-science studies. To do this, we run replications of 14 studies from the Many Labs 2 replication project with OpenAI's text-davinci-003 model, colloquially known as GPT3.5. Based on our pre-registered analyses, we find that among the eight studies we could analyse, our GPT sample replicated 37.5% of the original results and 37.5% of the Many Labs 2 results. However, we were unable to analyse the remaining six studies due to an unexpected phenomenon we call the "correct answer" effect. Different runs of GPT3.5 answered nuanced questions probing political orientation, economic preference, judgement, and moral philosophy with zero or near-zero variation in responses: with the supposedly "correct answer." In one exploratory follow-up study, we found that a "correct answer" was robust to changing the demographic details that precede the prompt. In another, we found that most but not all "correct answers" were robust to changing the order of answer choices. One of our most striking findings occurred in our replication of the Moral Foundations Theory survey results, where we found GPT3.5 identifying as a political conservative in 99.6% of the cases, and as a liberal in 99.3% of the cases in the reverse-order condition. However, both self-reported 'GPT conservatives' and 'GPT liberals' showed right-leaning moral foundations. Our results cast doubts on the validity of using LLMs as a general replacement for human participants in the social sciences. Our results also raise concerns that a hypothetical AI-led future may be subject to a diminished diversity-of-thought.

Inspired by the principle of deliberate practice in human learning, we propose Deliberate Practice for Synthetic Data Generation (DP), a novel framework that improves sample efficiency through dynamic synthetic data generation. Prior work has shown that scaling synthetic data is inherently challenging, as naively adding new data leads to diminishing returns. To address this, pruning has been identified as a key mechanism for improving scaling, enabling models to focus on the most informative synthetic samples. Rather than generating a large dataset and pruning it afterward, DP efficiently approximates the direct generation of informative samples. We theoretically show how training on challenging, informative examples improves scaling laws and empirically validate that DP achieves better scaling performance with significantly fewer training samples and iterations. On ImageNet-100, DP generates 3.4x fewer samples and requires six times fewer iterations, while on ImageNet-1k, it generates 8x fewer samples with a 30 percent reduction in iterations, all while achieving superior performance compared to prior work.