Daily Papers

The rapid advancement of generative AI has enabled the creation of highly photorealistic visual content, offering practical substitutes for real images and videos in scenarios where acquiring real data is difficult or expensive. However, reliably substituting real visual content with AI-generated counterparts requires robust assessment of the perceived realness of AI-generated visual content, a challenging task due to its inherent subjective nature. To address this, we conducted a comprehensive human study evaluating the perceptual realness of both real and AI-generated images, resulting in a new dataset, containing images paired with subjective realness scores, introduced as RAISE in this paper. Further, we develop and train multiple models on RAISE to establish baselines for realness prediction. Our experimental results demonstrate that features derived from deep foundation vision models can effectively capture the subjective realness. RAISE thus provides a valuable resource for developing robust, objective models of perceptual realness assessment.

While previous audio-driven talking head generation (THG) methods generate head poses from driving audio, the generated poses or lips cannot match the audio well or are not editable. In this study, we propose PoseTalk, a THG system that can freely generate lip-synchronized talking head videos with free head poses conditioned on text prompts and audio. The core insight of our method is using head pose to connect visual, linguistic, and audio signals. First, we propose to generate poses from both audio and text prompts, where the audio offers short-term variations and rhythm correspondence of the head movements and the text prompts describe the long-term semantics of head motions. To achieve this goal, we devise a Pose Latent Diffusion (PLD) model to generate motion latent from text prompts and audio cues in a pose latent space. Second, we observe a loss-imbalance problem: the loss for the lip region contributes less than 4\% of the total reconstruction loss caused by both pose and lip, making optimization lean towards head movements rather than lip shapes. To address this issue, we propose a refinement-based learning strategy to synthesize natural talking videos using two cascaded networks, i.e., CoarseNet, and RefineNet. The CoarseNet estimates coarse motions to produce animated images in novel poses and the RefineNet focuses on learning finer lip motions by progressively estimating lip motions from low-to-high resolutions, yielding improved lip-synchronization performance. Experiments demonstrate our pose prediction strategy achieves better pose diversity and realness compared to text-only or audio-only, and our video generator model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in synthesizing talking videos with natural head motions. Project: https://junleen.github.io/projects/posetalk.

Recent advancements in text-to-image (T2I) generation models have transformed the field. However, challenges persist in generating images that reflect demanding textual descriptions, especially for fine-grained details and unusual relationships. Existing evaluation metrics focus on text-image alignment but overlook the realism of the generated image, which can be crucial for downstream applications like data augmentation in machine learning. To address this gap, we propose REAL, an automatic evaluation framework that assesses realism of T2I outputs along three dimensions: fine-grained visual attributes, unusual visual relationships, and visual styles. REAL achieves a Spearman's rho score of up to 0.62 in alignment with human judgement and demonstrates utility in ranking and filtering augmented data for tasks like image captioning, classification, and visual relationship detection. Empirical results show that high-scoring images evaluated by our metrics improve F1 scores of image classification by up to 11.3%, while low-scoring ones degrade that by up to 4.95%. We benchmark four major T2I models across the realism dimensions, providing insights for future improvements in T2I output realism.

Decoding methods for large language models (LLMs) usually struggle with the tradeoff between ensuring factuality and maintaining diversity. For example, a higher p threshold in the nucleus (top-p) sampling increases the diversity but decreases the factuality, and vice versa. In this paper, we propose REAL (Residual Entropy from Asymptotic Line) sampling, a decoding method that achieves improved factuality and diversity over nucleus sampling by predicting an adaptive threshold of p. Specifically, REAL sampling predicts the step-wise likelihood of an LLM to hallucinate, and lowers the p threshold when an LLM is likely to hallucinate. Otherwise, REAL sampling increases the p threshold to boost the diversity. To predict the step-wise hallucination likelihood without supervision, we construct a Token-level Hallucination Forecasting (THF) model to predict the asymptotic entropy (i.e., inherent uncertainty) of the next token by extrapolating the next-token entropies from a series of LLMs with different sizes. If a LLM's entropy is higher than the asymptotic entropy (i.e., the LLM is more uncertain than it should be), the THF model predicts a high hallucination hazard, which leads to a lower p threshold in REAL sampling. In the FactualityPrompts benchmark, we demonstrate that REAL sampling based on a 70M THF model can substantially improve the factuality and diversity of 7B LLMs simultaneously, judged by both retrieval-based metrics and human evaluation. After combined with contrastive decoding, REAL sampling outperforms 9 sampling methods, and generates texts that are more factual than the greedy sampling and more diverse than the nucleus sampling with p=0.5. Furthermore, the predicted asymptotic entropy is also a useful unsupervised signal for hallucination detection tasks.

The last decade has seen tremendous progress in our ability to generate realistic-looking data, be it images, text, audio, or video. Here, we discuss the closely related problem of quantifying realism, that is, designing functions that can reliably tell realistic data from unrealistic data. This problem turns out to be significantly harder to solve and remains poorly understood, despite its prevalence in machine learning and recent breakthroughs in generative AI. Drawing on insights from algorithmic information theory, we discuss why this problem is challenging, why a good generative model alone is insufficient to solve it, and what a good solution would look like. In particular, we introduce the notion of a universal critic, which unlike adversarial critics does not require adversarial training. While universal critics are not immediately practical, they can serve both as a North Star for guiding practical implementations and as a tool for analyzing existing attempts to capture realism.

With the continuous advancement of image generation technology, advanced models such as GPT-Image-1 and Qwen-Image have achieved remarkable text-to-image consistency and world knowledge However, these models still fall short in photorealistic image generation. Even on simple T2I tasks, they tend to produce " fake" images with distinct AI artifacts, often characterized by "overly smooth skin" and "oily facial sheens". To recapture the original goal of "indistinguishable-from-reality" generation, we propose RealGen, a photorealistic text-to-image framework. RealGen integrates an LLM component for prompt optimization and a diffusion model for realistic image generation. Inspired by adversarial generation, RealGen introduces a "Detector Reward" mechanism, which quantifies artifacts and assesses realism using both semantic-level and feature-level synthetic image detectors. We leverage this reward signal with the GRPO algorithm to optimize the entire generation pipeline, significantly enhancing image realism and detail. Furthermore, we propose RealBench, an automated evaluation benchmark employing Detector-Scoring and Arena-Scoring. It enables human-free photorealism assessment, yielding results that are more accurate and aligned with real user experience. Experiments demonstrate that RealGen significantly outperforms general models like GPT-Image-1 and Qwen-Image, as well as specialized photorealistic models like FLUX-Krea, in terms of realism, detail, and aesthetics. The code is available at https://github.com/yejy53/RealGen.

Event sequences are chains of random events, each described by heterogeneous (numerical and categorical) features. The problem of event sequence forecasting occurs in finance, healthcare, business process intelligence, and other fields. In this work, we study multi-horizon forecasting of event sequences as a conditional generative modeling problem. We evaluate forecasts not only for prediction accuracy, but also for distributional realism. To this end, we present a benchmark comprising metrics for both quality aspects, strong statistical baselines, recent models adapted from adjacent fields, and curated real-world datasets. Careful evaluation reveals that no method excels at both accuracy and realism, highlighting a fundamental trade-off between the two. Finally, we introduce Wasserstein BaryBooster, an algorithm that aggregates samples from a realism-strong diffusion model into a state-of-the-art predictor, demonstrating that distributional realism can be converted into prediction accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/xaosina/event-sequence-forecasting.

Quantifying the realism of images remains a challenging problem in the field of artificial intelligence. For example, an image of Albert Einstein holding a smartphone violates common-sense because modern smartphone were invented after Einstein's death. We introduce a novel method for assessing image realism using Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) and Natural Language Inference (NLI). Our approach is based on the premise that LVLMs may generate hallucinations when confronted with images that defy common sense. Using LVLM to extract atomic facts from these images, we obtain a mix of accurate facts and erroneous hallucinations. We proceed by calculating pairwise entailment scores among these facts, subsequently aggregating these values to yield a singular reality score. This process serves to identify contradictions between genuine facts and hallucinatory elements, signaling the presence of images that violate common sense. Our approach has achieved a new state-of-the-art performance in zero-shot mode on the WHOOPS! dataset.

Large Language Models (LLMs) hold significant potential for advancing fact-checking by leveraging their capabilities in reasoning, evidence retrieval, and explanation generation. However, existing benchmarks fail to comprehensively evaluate LLMs and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) in realistic misinformation scenarios. To bridge this gap, we introduce RealFactBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to assess the fact-checking capabilities of LLMs and MLLMs across diverse real-world tasks, including Knowledge Validation, Rumor Detection, and Event Verification. RealFactBench consists of 6K high-quality claims drawn from authoritative sources, encompassing multimodal content and diverse domains. Our evaluation framework further introduces the Unknown Rate (UnR) metric, enabling a more nuanced assessment of models' ability to handle uncertainty and balance between over-conservatism and over-confidence. Extensive experiments on 7 representative LLMs and 4 MLLMs reveal their limitations in real-world fact-checking and offer valuable insights for further research. RealFactBench is publicly available at https://github.com/kalendsyang/RealFactBench.git.

After pre-training on extensive image-text pairs, Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) demonstrates promising performance on a wide variety of benchmarks. However, a substantial volume of non-paired data, such as multimodal interleaved documents, remains underutilized for vision-language representation learning. To fully leverage these unpaired documents, we initially establish a Real-World Data Extraction pipeline to extract high-quality images and texts. Then we design a hierarchical retrieval method to efficiently associate each image with multiple semantically relevant realistic texts. To further enhance fine-grained visual information, we propose an image semantic augmented generation module for synthetic text production. Furthermore, we employ a semantic balance sampling strategy to improve dataset diversity, enabling better learning of long-tail concepts. Based on these innovations, we construct RealSyn, a dataset combining realistic and synthetic texts, available in three scales: 15M, 30M, and 100M. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RealSyn effectively advances vision-language representation learning and exhibits strong scalability. Models pre-trained on RealSyn achieve state-of-the-art performance on multiple downstream tasks. To facilitate future research, the RealSyn dataset and pre-trained model weights are released at https://github.com/deepglint/RealSyn.

We introduce RealPlay, a neural network-based real-world game engine that enables interactive video generation from user control signals. Unlike prior works focused on game-style visuals, RealPlay aims to produce photorealistic, temporally consistent video sequences that resemble real-world footage. It operates in an interactive loop: users observe a generated scene, issue a control command, and receive a short video chunk in response. To enable such realistic and responsive generation, we address key challenges including iterative chunk-wise prediction for low-latency feedback, temporal consistency across iterations, and accurate control response. RealPlay is trained on a combination of labeled game data and unlabeled real-world videos, without requiring real-world action annotations. Notably, we observe two forms of generalization: (1) control transfer-RealPlay effectively maps control signals from virtual to real-world scenarios; and (2) entity transfer-although training labels originate solely from a car racing game, RealPlay generalizes to control diverse real-world entities, including bicycles and pedestrians, beyond vehicles. Project page can be found: https://wenqsun.github.io/RealPlay/

In spite of recent advancements in text-to-image generation, limitations persist in handling complex and imaginative prompts due to the restricted diversity and complexity of training data. This work explores how diffusion models can generate images from prompts requiring artistic creativity or specialized knowledge. We introduce the Realistic-Fantasy Benchmark (RFBench), a novel evaluation framework blending realistic and fantastical scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose the Realistic-Fantasy Network (RFNet), a training-free approach integrating diffusion models with LLMs. Extensive human evaluations and GPT-based compositional assessments demonstrate our approach's superiority over state-of-the-art methods. Our code and dataset is available at https://leo81005.github.io/Reality-and-Fantasy/.

Metrics like FactScore and VeriScore that evaluate long-form factuality operate by decomposing an input response into atomic claims and then individually verifying each claim. While effective and interpretable, these methods incur numerous LLM calls and can take upwards of 100 seconds to evaluate a single response, limiting their practicality in large-scale evaluation and training scenarios. To address this, we propose VeriFastScore, which leverages synthetic data to fine-tune Llama3.1 8B for simultaneously extracting and verifying all verifiable claims within a given text based on evidence from Google Search. We show that this task cannot be solved via few-shot prompting with closed LLMs due to its complexity: the model receives ~4K tokens of evidence on average and needs to concurrently decompose claims, judge their verifiability, and verify them against noisy evidence. However, our fine-tuned VeriFastScore model demonstrates strong correlation with the original VeriScore pipeline at both the example level (r=0.80) and system level (r=0.94) while achieving an overall speedup of 6.6x (9.9x excluding evidence retrieval) over VeriScore. To facilitate future factuality research, we publicly release our VeriFastScore model and synthetic datasets.

Visual recognition models are prone to learning spurious correlations induced by a biased training set where certain conditions B (\eg, Indoors) are over-represented in certain classes Y (\eg, Big Dogs). Synthetic data from off-the-shelf large-scale generative models offers a promising direction to mitigate this issue by augmenting underrepresented subgroups in the real dataset. However, by using a mixed distribution of real and synthetic data, we introduce another source of bias due to distributional differences between synthetic and real data (\eg synthetic artifacts). As we will show, prior work's approach for using synthetic data to resolve the model's bias toward B do not correct the model's bias toward the pair (B, G), where G denotes whether the sample is real or synthetic. Thus, the model could simply learn signals based on the pair (B, G) (\eg, Synthetic Indoors) to make predictions about Y (\eg, Big Dogs). To address this issue, we propose a simple, easy-to-implement, two-step training pipeline that we call From Fake to Real (FFR). The first step of FFR pre-trains a model on balanced synthetic data to learn robust representations across subgroups. In the second step, FFR fine-tunes the model on real data using ERM or common loss-based bias mitigation methods. By training on real and synthetic data separately, FFR does not expose the model to the statistical differences between real and synthetic data and thus avoids the issue of bias toward the pair (B, G). Our experiments show that FFR improves worst group accuracy over the state-of-the-art by up to 20\% over three datasets. Code available: https://github.com/mqraitem/From-Fake-to-Real

Recent text-to-image generative models, e.g., Stable Diffusion V3 and Flux, have achieved notable progress. However, these models are strongly restricted to their limited knowledge, a.k.a., their own fixed parameters, that are trained with closed datasets. This leads to significant hallucinations or distortions when facing fine-grained and unseen novel real-world objects, e.g., the appearance of the Tesla Cybertruck. To this end, we present the first real-object-based retrieval-augmented generation framework (RealRAG), which augments fine-grained and unseen novel object generation by learning and retrieving real-world images to overcome the knowledge gaps of generative models. Specifically, to integrate missing memory for unseen novel object generation, we train a reflective retriever by self-reflective contrastive learning, which injects the generator's knowledge into the sef-reflective negatives, ensuring that the retrieved augmented images compensate for the model's missing knowledge. Furthermore, the real-object-based framework integrates fine-grained visual knowledge for the generative models, tackling the distortion problem and improving the realism for fine-grained object generation. Our Real-RAG is superior in its modular application to all types of state-of-the-art text-to-image generative models and also delivers remarkable performance boosts with all of them, such as a gain of 16.18% FID score with the auto-regressive model on the Stanford Car benchmark.

Video generation has advanced significantly, evolving from producing unrealistic outputs to generating videos that appear visually convincing and temporally coherent. To evaluate these video generative models, benchmarks such as VBench have been developed to assess their faithfulness, measuring factors like per-frame aesthetics, temporal consistency, and basic prompt adherence. However, these aspects mainly represent superficial faithfulness, which focus on whether the video appears visually convincing rather than whether it adheres to real-world principles. While recent models perform increasingly well on these metrics, they still struggle to generate videos that are not just visually plausible but fundamentally realistic. To achieve real "world models" through video generation, the next frontier lies in intrinsic faithfulness to ensure that generated videos adhere to physical laws, commonsense reasoning, anatomical correctness, and compositional integrity. Achieving this level of realism is essential for applications such as AI-assisted filmmaking and simulated world modeling. To bridge this gap, we introduce VBench-2.0, a next-generation benchmark designed to automatically evaluate video generative models for their intrinsic faithfulness. VBench-2.0 assesses five key dimensions: Human Fidelity, Controllability, Creativity, Physics, and Commonsense, each further broken down into fine-grained capabilities. Tailored for individual dimensions, our evaluation framework integrates generalists such as state-of-the-art VLMs and LLMs, and specialists, including anomaly detection methods proposed for video generation. We conduct extensive annotations to ensure alignment with human judgment. By pushing beyond superficial faithfulness toward intrinsic faithfulness, VBench-2.0 aims to set a new standard for the next generation of video generative models in pursuit of intrinsic faithfulness.

Recent advances in generative imagery have brought forth outpainting and inpainting models that can produce high-quality, plausible image content in unknown regions, but the content these models hallucinate is necessarily inauthentic, since the models lack sufficient context about the true scene. In this work, we propose RealFill, a novel generative approach for image completion that fills in missing regions of an image with the content that should have been there. RealFill is a generative inpainting model that is personalized using only a few reference images of a scene. These reference images do not have to be aligned with the target image, and can be taken with drastically varying viewpoints, lighting conditions, camera apertures, or image styles. Once personalized, RealFill is able to complete a target image with visually compelling contents that are faithful to the original scene. We evaluate RealFill on a new image completion benchmark that covers a set of diverse and challenging scenarios, and find that it outperforms existing approaches by a large margin. See more results on our project page: https://realfill.github.io

With generative models proliferating at a rapid rate, there is a growing need for general purpose fake image detectors. In this work, we first show that the existing paradigm, which consists of training a deep network for real-vs-fake classification, fails to detect fake images from newer breeds of generative models when trained to detect GAN fake images. Upon analysis, we find that the resulting classifier is asymmetrically tuned to detect patterns that make an image fake. The real class becomes a sink class holding anything that is not fake, including generated images from models not accessible during training. Building upon this discovery, we propose to perform real-vs-fake classification without learning; i.e., using a feature space not explicitly trained to distinguish real from fake images. We use nearest neighbor and linear probing as instantiations of this idea. When given access to the feature space of a large pretrained vision-language model, the very simple baseline of nearest neighbor classification has surprisingly good generalization ability in detecting fake images from a wide variety of generative models; e.g., it improves upon the SoTA by +15.07 mAP and +25.90% acc when tested on unseen diffusion and autoregressive models.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Large language models hallucinate most about entities they have never seen. We ask whether a model's activations betray entity familiarity before a single answer token is generated, and whether that signal predicts the factual reliability of the answers. On four Polish Bielik models (1.5B-11B parameters), we probe four entity domains (athletes, cities, writers, musicians), each with 42 well-known, 42 obscure-but-real, and 42 fabricated entities addressed by a one-sentence question (504 prompts per model). Two unsupervised, single-forward-pass dispersion measures over post-SwiGLU MLP activations, inverse participation ratio and spectral entropy, separate known from fabricated entities at AUROC 0.95-1.00 across all domains and scales; a supervised linear probe reaches 0.99-1.00. Both clear selection-aware permutation floors of about 0.70-0.74 (empirical p<=1e-3), survive held-out layer selection (0.93-0.99), and persist on real names (known vs. obscure-but-real: 0.96-1.00). The signal transfers across entity types (mean off-diagonal AUROC 0.92-0.99); a matched-template counterfactual shows the only large drops are template-caused, not entity-type effects, and the signal is diffuse across heads. This representational signal is already at ceiling at 1.5B, whereas behavioral factual reliability scales sharply: 0, 2, 10, and 19 of 42 known athletes are answered fully correctly by the 1.5B, 4.5B, 7B, and 11B models under a strict judge. Within known entities, separating correct from hallucinated answers is much harder (probe 0.93; dispersion no better than a first-token-entropy baseline). A five-sample semantic-entropy baseline reaches only 0.71-0.83 at 5x the inference cost. Despite this internal awareness, the models almost never abstain: an audit of 2,520 answers finds 2 refusals and 1 hedge. Entity familiarity and factual reliability are distinct phenomena on different scaling curves.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across many tasks but remain vulnerable to hallucinations, making it important to systematically evaluate their reliability under realistic adversarial inputs. We formulate hallucination elicitation as a constrained optimization problem, where the goal is to find semantically coherent adversarial prompts that are equivalent to benign user prompts. Existing attack methods remain limited: discrete prompt-based attacks preserve semantic equivalence and coherence but search only over a limited set of prompt variations, while continuous latent-space attacks explore a richer space but often decode into prompts that are no longer valid rephrasings. To address these limitations, we propose REALISTA, a realistic latent-space attack framework. REALISTA constructs an input-dependent dictionary of valid editing directions, each corresponding to a semantically equivalent and coherent rephrasing, and optimizes continuous combinations of these directions in latent space. This design combines the optimization flexibility of continuous attacks with the semantic realism of discrete rephrasing-based attacks. Experiments demonstrate that REALISTA achieves superior or comparable performance to state-of-the-art realistic attacks on open-source LLMs and, crucially, succeeds in attacking large reasoning models under free-form response settings, where prior realistic attacks fail. Code is available at https://github.com/Buyun-Liang/REALISTA.

Simulated virtual environments have been widely used to learn robotic agents that perform daily household tasks. These environments encourage research progress by far, but often provide limited object interactability, visual appearance different from real-world environments, or relatively smaller environment sizes. This prevents the learned models in the virtual scenes from being readily deployable. To bridge the gap between these learning environments and deploying (i.e., real) environments, we propose the ReALFRED benchmark that employs real-world scenes, objects, and room layouts to learn agents to complete household tasks by understanding free-form language instructions and interacting with objects in large, multi-room and 3D-captured scenes. Specifically, we extend the ALFRED benchmark with updates for larger environmental spaces with smaller visual domain gaps. With ReALFRED, we analyze previously crafted methods for the ALFRED benchmark and observe that they consistently yield lower performance in all metrics, encouraging the community to develop methods in more realistic environments. Our code and data are publicly available.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Tabular data is a common form of organizing data. Multiple models are available to generate synthetic tabular datasets where observations are independent, but few have the ability to produce relational datasets. Modeling relational data is challenging as it requires modeling both a "parent" table and its relationships across tables. We introduce REaLTabFormer (Realistic Relational and Tabular Transformer), a tabular and relational synthetic data generation model. It first creates a parent table using an autoregressive GPT-2 model, then generates the relational dataset conditioned on the parent table using a sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) model. We implement target masking to prevent data copying and propose the Q_{delta} statistic and statistical bootstrapping to detect overfitting. Experiments using real-world datasets show that REaLTabFormer captures the relational structure better than a baseline model. REaLTabFormer also achieves state-of-the-art results on prediction tasks, "out-of-the-box", for large non-relational datasets without needing fine-tuning.

Large language models (LLMs) have experienced notable advancements in generating coherent and contextually relevant responses. However, hallucinations - incorrect or unfounded claims - are still prevalent, prompting the creation of automated metrics to detect these in LLM outputs. Our contributions include: introducing ChainPoll, an innovative hallucination detection method that excels compared to its counterparts, and unveiling RealHall, a refined collection of benchmark datasets to assess hallucination detection metrics from recent studies. While creating RealHall, we assessed tasks and datasets from previous hallucination detection studies and observed that many are not suitable for the potent LLMs currently in use. Overcoming this, we opted for four datasets challenging for modern LLMs and pertinent to real-world scenarios. Using RealHall, we conducted a comprehensive comparison of ChainPoll with numerous hallucination metrics from recent studies. Our findings indicate that ChainPoll outperforms in all RealHall benchmarks, achieving an overall AUROC of 0.781. This surpasses the next best theoretical method by 11% and exceeds industry standards by over 23%. Additionally, ChainPoll is cost-effective and offers greater transparency than other metrics. We introduce two novel metrics to assess LLM hallucinations: Adherence and Correctness. Adherence is relevant to Retrieval Augmented Generation workflows, evaluating an LLM's analytical capabilities within given documents and contexts. In contrast, Correctness identifies logical and reasoning errors.

Recent Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in mimicking fictional characters or real humans in conversational settings. However, the realism and consistency of these responses can be further enhanced by providing richer information of the agent being mimicked. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to generate more realistic and consistent responses from LLMs, leveraging five senses, attributes, emotional states, relationship with the interlocutor, and memories. By incorporating these factors, we aim to increase the LLM's capacity for generating natural and realistic reactions in conversational exchanges. Through our research, we expect to contribute to the development of LLMs that demonstrate improved capabilities in mimicking fictional characters. We release a new benchmark dataset and all our codes, prompts, and sample results on our Github: https://github.com/srafsasm/InfoRichBot

Recent generative models can now produce visual artifacts with realistic embedded text and layouts, creating a new misinformation threat: synthetic credibility. We introduce SYNCRED-Bench, a benchmark of 600 AI-generated misinformation images balanced across six credible-form categories and seven fine-grained circulation styles, together with FP450, a real-image negative set for measuring false positives. Extensive evaluation shows that existing systems remain unreliable: under a 5% false-positive-rate constraint, 15 MLLMs achieve only 10.5% true positive rate (TPR), open-source AIGC detectors achieve less than 5%, and commercial APIs reach 57.6%. Human annotators also struggled to identify synthetic credibility, reaching only 63% TPR. These findings establish synthetic credibility as a severe and underexplored visual misinformation challenge, and provide a benchmark for developing detectors that reason beyond superficial credibility cues.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

The rapid advancement of generative models has blurred the boundary between synthetic and real imagery, creating an urgent need for reliable deepfake detection. Yet most existing approaches rely on massive real--fake datasets, which are increasingly difficult to maintain as new generators continue to emerge. In this work, we investigate how much information about image authenticity is already encoded in modern multimodal vision representations. We find that frozen multimodal encoders naturally separate real and synthetic images in their embedding space, enabling a simple linear classifier to achieve strong performance without task-specific fine-tuning. Motivated by this observation, we develop a representation-aware data curation strategy that selects a compact set of representative generators for training. The resulting training set contains only 10K images, compared to 288K in AIGIBench and 4M in OpenFake, while improving robustness to unseen generators and distribution shifts. We additionally introduce RealWorldBench, a benchmark consisting of modern camera photographs, contemporary stock images, and outputs from recent commercial generators. Experiments across multiple benchmarks show that combining frozen multimodal representations with carefully curated training data provides a simple and effective approach to AI-generated image detection.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

With the emergence of large-scale vision language models (VLM), it is now possible to produce realistic-looking radiology reports for chest X-ray images. However, their clinical translation has been hampered by the factual errors and hallucinations in the produced descriptions during inference. In this paper, we present a novel phrase-grounded fact-checking model (FC model) that detects errors in findings and their indicated locations in automatically generated chest radiology reports. Specifically, we simulate the errors in reports through a large synthetic dataset derived by perturbing findings and their locations in ground truth reports to form real and fake findings-location pairs with images. A new multi-label cross-modal contrastive regression network is then trained on this dataset. We present results demonstrating the robustness of our method in terms of accuracy of finding veracity prediction and localization on multiple X-ray datasets. We also show its effectiveness for error detection in reports of SOTA report generators on multiple datasets achieving a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.997 with ground truth-based verification, thus pointing to its utility during clinical inference in radiology workflows.

Humans imagine scene changes under hypothetical motions, an ability central to spatial reasoning and robotic planning. However, this capability remains underexplored in vision-language models and world models. We formalize this capability as Counterfactual Spatial Imagination (CSI) and introduce FlowBench, a resource for training and evaluating both, with 428K training examples spanning simulated and real-world scenes, household environments and tabletop manipulation, and diverse question types. A scalable, fully automatic pipeline pairs each hypothetical motion with spatial questions and, in simulation, exact outcome frames and optical flow. For VLMs, proprietary models exhibit an imagination gap, performing worse when motion outcomes must be inferred than when observed, and open-source models perform near chance; fine-tuning Qwen3-VL-8B on FlowBench-Sim-Train raises its accuracy by 29.5 percentage points in simulation and 16.9 on real images, a strong sim-to-real transfer. For world models, training on FlowBench-Sim improves text-to-flow prediction for all four model families we test, raising the accuracy of Psi-0.6 from 52.1% to 61.7%. FlowBench thus serves as a training and evaluation resource for both. Code and datasets are released at https://github.com/liuyifan22/FlowBench.

Reality may establish that an outcome occurred without identifying which evolving procedure produced it or why. This distinction matters in production ML systems whose code, configuration, and artifacts change while external feedback accumulates. We examine it in a human-directed, agent-engineered quantitative trading system, using oracle to mean an external source of realized outcomes rather than a complete correctness specification. Across one year, the account gained and outperformed a broad market index, while annual alpha was not statistically distinguishable from zero under the main retrospective specification. Retrospectively selected subperiods include adverse relative performance and conditional candidate-level weakness under declared approximate references. Engineering records document changes during the episode, and complete recommendation-to-runtime binding is unavailable. The archive does not establish a common frozen instance or a unique cause. The case motivates an outcome--diagnosis gap: outcome evidence, evaluated-object identity, and causal explanation support distinct claims. We distinguish frozen instances, pre-specified adaptive procedures, and ad-hoc development; organize archive-relative claim identifiability and an evidence hierarchy; and propose a prospective production-binding protocol. An illustrative compatible-history example shows how factual binding can resolve a recommendation's referent without supplying its counterfactual effect. The protocol is proposed rather than prospectively validated. External feedback constrains outcome claims, while provenance and additional identification structure determine the resolution of diagnosis.

Language models (LMs) are widely used by an increasing number of users, underscoring the challenge of maintaining factuality across a broad range of topics. We first present VERIFY (Verification and Evidence RetrIeval for FactualitY evaluation), a pipeline to evaluate LMs' factuality in real-world user interactions. VERIFY considers the verifiability of LM-generated content and categorizes content units as supported, unsupported, or undecidable based on the retrieved evidence from the Web. Importantly, factuality judgment by VERIFY correlates better with human evaluations than existing methods. Using VERIFY, we identify "hallucination prompts" across diverse topics, i.e., those eliciting the highest rates of incorrect and inconclusive LM responses. These prompts form FactBench, a dataset of 1K prompts across 150 fine-grained topics. Our dataset captures emerging factuality challenges in real-world LM interactions and can be regularly updated with new prompts. We benchmark widely-used LMs from GPT, Gemini, and Llama3.1 family on FactBench, yielding the following key findings: (i) Proprietary models exhibit better factuality, with performance declining from Easy to Hard hallucination prompts. (ii) Llama3.1-405B-Instruct shows comparable or lower factual accuracy than Llama3.1-70B-Instruct across all evaluation methods due to its higher subjectivity that leads to more content labeled as undecidable. (iii) Gemini1.5-Pro shows a significantly higher refusal rate, with over-refusal in 25% of cases. Our code and data are publicly available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/launch/factbench.

Evaluating language models and AI agents remains fundamentally challenging because static benchmarks fail to capture real-world uncertainty, distribution shift, and the gap between isolated task accuracy and human-aligned decision-making under evolving conditions. This paper introduces TruthTensor, a novel, reproducible evaluation paradigm that measures reasoning models not only as prediction engines but as human-imitation systems operating in socially-grounded, high-entropy environments. Building on forward-looking, contamination-free tasks, our framework anchors evaluation to live prediction markets and combines probabilistic scoring to provide a holistic view of model behavior. TruthTensor complements traditional correctness metrics with drift-centric diagnostics and explicit robustness checks for reproducibility. It specify human vs. automated evaluation roles, annotation protocols, and statistical testing procedures to ensure interpretability and replicability of results. In experiments across 500+ real markets (political, economic, cultural, technological), TruthTensor demonstrates that models with similar forecast accuracy can diverge markedly in calibration, drift, and risk-sensitivity, underscoring the need to evaluate models along multiple axes (accuracy, calibration, narrative stability, cost, and resource efficiency). TruthTensor therefore operationalizes modern evaluation best practices, clear hypothesis framing, careful metric selection, transparent compute/cost reporting, human-in-the-loop validation, and open, versioned evaluation contracts, to produce defensible assessments of LLMs in real-world decision contexts. We publicly released TruthTensor at https://truthtensor.com.

Existing image editing models struggle to meet real-world demands. Despite excelling in academic benchmarks, they have yet to be widely adopted for real user needs. Datasets that power these models use artificial edits, lacking the scale and ecological validity necessary to address the true diversity of user requests. We introduce REALEDIT, a large-scale image editing dataset with authentic user requests and human-made edits sourced from Reddit. REALEDIT includes a test set of 9300 examples to evaluate models on real user requests. Our results show that existing models fall short on these tasks, highlighting the need for realistic training data. To address this, we introduce 48K training examples and train our REALEDIT model, achieving substantial gains - outperforming competitors by up to 165 Elo points in human judgment and 92 percent relative improvement on the automated VIEScore metric. We deploy our model on Reddit, testing it on new requests, and receive positive feedback. Beyond image editing, we explore REALEDIT's potential in detecting edited images by partnering with a deepfake detection non-profit. Finetuning their model on REALEDIT data improves its F1-score by 14 percentage points, underscoring the dataset's value for broad applications.

Large language models are moving from static text generators toward real-world decision-support systems, where forecasting is a composite capability that links information gathering, evidence integration, situational judgment, and action-oriented decision making. This capability is in broad demand across finance, policy, industry, and scientific research, yet its evaluation remains difficult: live benchmarks evaluate forecasts before answers exist, making them the cleanest way to measure forecasting ability, but they expire once events resolve; retrospective benchmarks are reproducible, but they cannot reliably distinguish genuine forecasting from facts a model may have already learned during pretraining. Prompting models to "pretend not to know" cannot replace a genuine knowledge boundary. We propose OracleProto, a reproducible framework for evaluating LLM native forecasting capability. OracleProto reconstructs resolved events into time-bounded forecasting samples by combining model-cutoff-aligned sample admission, tool-level temporal masking, content-level leakage detection, discrete answer normalization, and hierarchical scoring. Instantiated on a FutureX-Past-derived dataset with six contemporary LLMs, OracleProto distinguishes forecasting quality, sampling stability, and cost efficiency under controlled information boundaries, while reducing residual leakage to the 1% level, an order of magnitude below tool-only temporal filtering. OracleProto turns LLM forecasting from one-off evaluation into an auditable, reusable, and trainable dataset-level capability, providing a unified interface for fair cross-model comparison and a controlled signal source for downstream SFT and RL. Code and data are available at https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto and https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto.

Text-to-image (T2I) generation models have achieved remarkable progress in producing visually realistic images from natural language prompts. Yet it remains unclear whether their success reflects genuine causal understanding or sophisticated pattern matching over visual-textual correlations. Inspired by Russell's inductivist turkey, we introduce Counterfactual-World (CF-World), a counterfactual benchmark designed to investigate whether text-to-image models can generate images under rules that systematically contradict real-world priors. CF-World organizes each scenario into three progressive levels: factual generation under ordinary world knowledge, explicit counterfactual generation with direct visual instructions, and implicit counterfactual generation requiring causal deduction from altered rules. We evaluate both open-source and closed-source T2I models using a Vision Language Model (VLM)-based evaluator (CF-Eval). Furthermore, we introduce two metrics: Prior Resistance Rate (PRR), which measures a model's ability to overcome entrenched real-world priors, and Reasoning Retention Rate (RRR), which assesses whether models can maintain reasoning-dependent counterfactual generation without explicit visual cues. Experiments show that all models exhibit sharp degradation from factual to counterfactual settings. Further analyses suggest that these failures arise because current T2I models encode world knowledge and visual appearances as tightly coupled patterns. Consequently, their heavy reliance on frequent visual co-occurrences within the training data forces them to default to familiar commonsense priors when tasked with rendering counterfactual worlds.

Large Language Models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, yet they frequently generate hallucinations outputs that are fluent but factually incorrect or unsupported. We propose Counterfactual Probing, a novel approach for detecting and mitigating hallucinations in LLM outputs. Our method dynamically generates counterfactual statements that appear plausible but contain subtle factual errors, then evaluates the model's sensitivity to these perturbations. We hypothesize that genuine knowledge exhibits robustness to counterfactual variations, while hallucinated content shows inconsistent confidence patterns when confronted with plausible alternatives. Our comprehensive evaluation on TruthfulQA, factual statement datasets, and curated hallucination examples demonstrates that counterfactual probing achieves superior detection performance compared to baseline methods, while our adaptive mitigation strategies reduce hallucination scores by an average of 24.5%. The approach requires no model retraining and can be integrated into existing LLM pipelines as a realtime verification mechanism.

Large-scale and categorical-balanced text data is essential for training effective Scene Text Recognition (STR) models, which is hard to achieve when collecting real data. Synthetic data offers a cost-effective and perfectly labeled alternative. However, its performance often lags behind, revealing a significant domain gap between real and current synthetic data. In this work, we systematically analyze mainstream rendering-based synthetic datasets and identify their key limitations: insufficient diversity in corpus, font, and layout, which restricts their realism in complex scenarios. To address these issues, we introduce UnionST, a strong data engine synthesizes text covering a union of challenging samples and better aligns with the complexity observed in the wild. We then construct UnionST-S, a large-scale synthetic dataset with improved simulations in challenging scenarios. Furthermore, we develop a self-evolution learning (SEL) framework for effective real data annotation. Experiments show that models trained on UnionST-S achieve significant improvements over existing synthetic datasets. They even surpass real-data performance in certain scenarios. Moreover, when using SEL, the trained models achieve competitive performance by only seeing 9% of real data labels.

The default strategy for training single-view Large Reconstruction Models (LRMs) follows the fully supervised route using large-scale datasets of synthetic 3D assets or multi-view captures. Although these resources simplify the training procedure, they are hard to scale up beyond the existing datasets and they are not necessarily representative of the real distribution of object shapes. To address these limitations, in this paper, we introduce Real3D, the first LRM system that can be trained using single-view real-world images. Real3D introduces a novel self-training framework that can benefit from both the existing synthetic data and diverse single-view real images. We propose two unsupervised losses that allow us to supervise LRMs at the pixel- and semantic-level, even for training examples without ground-truth 3D or novel views. To further improve performance and scale up the image data, we develop an automatic data curation approach to collect high-quality examples from in-the-wild images. Our experiments show that Real3D consistently outperforms prior work in four diverse evaluation settings that include real and synthetic data, as well as both in-domain and out-of-domain shapes. Code and model can be found here: https://hwjiang1510.github.io/Real3D/

The propensity of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate hallucinations and non-factual content undermines their reliability in high-stakes domains, where rigorous control over Type I errors (the conditional probability of incorrectly classifying hallucinations as truthful content) is essential. Despite its importance, formal verification of LLM factuality with such guarantees remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce FactTest, a novel framework that statistically assesses whether a LLM can confidently provide correct answers to given questions with high-probability correctness guarantees. We formulate factuality testing as hypothesis testing problem to enforce an upper bound of Type I errors at user-specified significance levels. Notably, we prove that our framework also ensures strong Type II error control under mild conditions and can be extended to maintain its effectiveness when covariate shifts exist. Our approach is distribution-free and works for any number of human-annotated samples. It is model-agnostic and applies to any black-box or white-box LM. Extensive experiments on question-answering (QA) and multiple-choice benchmarks demonstrate that FactTest effectively detects hallucinations and improves the model's ability to abstain from answering unknown questions, leading to an over 40% accuracy improvement.

We introduce Ψ-Resilience, a model-free feature importance method that derives explanations directly from the data itself via 1D topological signals. Our method constructs a class-disagreement landscape by estimating class-conditional densities and taking their pointwise absolute difference along the feature axis. Then, the 0-dimensional persistence of this 1D signal defines a resilience functional that aggregates only those topological features that survive perturbations up to a robustness scale which is set by the user. This gives us a context-robust importance score that is inherently auditable via the underlying 1D landscapes and their persistence. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and real datasets. On synthetic generators with specified ground-truth importance, Ψ-Resilience recovers the ranking of features with high fidelity, achieving Spearman rank correlations up to 0.8 and performing competitively with multiple feature importance methods, including SHAP and mutual information. On real datasets with no known ground truth, our technique agrees with these methods, with correlations up to 0.9. These results show that Ψ-Resilience is a stable explanation method that enables rigorous, distribution-level auditing of feature importance without relying on a predictive model.

Simulating object dynamics from real-world perception shows great promise for digital twins and robotic manipulation but often demands labor-intensive measurements and expertise. We present a fully automated Real2Sim pipeline that generates simulation-ready assets for real-world objects through robotic interaction. Using only a robot's joint torque sensors and an external camera, the pipeline identifies visual geometry, collision geometry, and physical properties such as inertial parameters. Our approach introduces a general method for extracting high-quality, object-centric meshes from photometric reconstruction techniques (e.g., NeRF, Gaussian Splatting) by employing alpha-transparent training while explicitly distinguishing foreground occlusions from background subtraction. We validate the full pipeline through extensive experiments, demonstrating its effectiveness across diverse objects. By eliminating the need for manual intervention or environment modifications, our pipeline can be integrated directly into existing pick-and-place setups, enabling scalable and efficient dataset creation. Project page (with code and data): https://scalable-real2sim.github.io/.

Real-to-sim conversion for robotic interaction with objects remains labor-intensive because it requires more than visual reconstruction: a streamlined real2sim process must recover scene geometries and object states, infer physical parameters, and assemble actors, objects, cameras, poses, and trajectories into a runnable physical simulation. Today this process still depends on manual tuning of visual foundation models, mesh cleanup, coordinate-frame alignment, and brittle workflow glue across visual perception tools and simulators. We introduce Agentic Real2Sim, a framework for generalized physical world modeling with vision-language agents, converting a real-world recording of object-robot interaction into a simulatable episodic twin which preserves observations, geometries, robot interactions, and object states. We evaluate Agentic Real2Sim on rigid-object manipulation, deformable-object interaction, and humanoid motion scenes, spanning domains that are usually handled by separate Real2Sim pipelines, marking a first step toward scalable conversion. The framework's agentic decisions can be driven by an open-weight VLM backend at a small fraction of the cost of frontier models, while attaining comparable conversion success rate. We aim to use the resulting real-world-aligned twins for downstream robotics tasks, specifically policy learning and evaluation. The project site is available at https://agentic-real2sim.github.io/.

Synthetic video generation with foundation models has gained attention for its realism and wide applications. While these models produce high-quality frames, they often fail to respect common sense and physical laws, resulting in abnormal content. Existing metrics like VideoScore emphasize general quality but ignore such violations and lack interpretability. A more insightful approach is using multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) as interpretable evaluators, as seen in FactScore. Yet, MLLMs' ability to detect abnormalities in synthetic videos remains underexplored. To address this, we introduce VideoHallu, a benchmark featuring synthetic videos from models like Veo2, Sora, and Kling, paired with expert-designed QA tasks solvable via human-level reasoning across various categories. We assess several SoTA MLLMs, including GPT-4o, Gemini-2.5-Pro, Qwen-2.5-VL, and newer models like Video-R1 and VideoChat-R1. Despite strong real-world performance on MVBench and MovieChat, these models still hallucinate on basic commonsense and physics tasks in synthetic settings, underscoring the challenge of hallucination. We further fine-tune SoTA MLLMs using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) on real and synthetic commonsense/physics data. Results show notable accuracy gains, especially with counterexample integration, advancing MLLMs' reasoning capabilities. Our data is available at https://github.com/zli12321/VideoHallu.

Streaming video world models generate the future chunk by chunk, conditioned on their own past and a stream of actions. Trained on short clips, they drift once a rollout exceeds the training horizon, as prediction errors re-enter the context and compound. A common remedy is to train the model on its own rollouts via distribution matching distillation (DMD). For action-conditioned world models, the teacher becomes a bottleneck: an external video model is agnostic to the actions, whereas the model's own pretrained network drifts in the same manner as the student. We observe that a long rollout need not match a teacher, provided it remains a realistic continuation of its own scene that follows the commanded actions. Realism and scene fidelity can be measured against real-data statistics, which remain valid at any horizon, while action following is preserved by the model's conditional generation loss. We propose Fréchet Forcing, which fine-tunes a world model together with its deployed multi-step sampler under three constraints. Generative anchoring applies the flow-matching loss after a self-generated history ending on real data. Context fidelity, a Fréchet distance (FD) on latent statistics of the free rollout centred on each clip's own ground truth, keeps every rollout faithful to its scene. Reality matching, an FD to real frames in a frozen perceptual space, keeps the generated frames realistic. Because all three targets are derived from short real clips without comparing a rollout against a long recorded future, training requires no teacher, no online critic and no long videos. Fine-tuning MiniWorld-1B, pretrained on 253-frame clips, for at most 36 GPU-hours on 381-frame clips yields rollouts that remain stable beyond 4,000 frames and continue to follow their actions in both robot manipulation and camera-controlled exploration.

Large language models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, limiting their reliability in knowledge-intensive applications. Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and conformal factuality have emerged as potential ways to address this limitation. While RAG aims to ground responses in retrieved evidence, it provides no statistical guarantee that the final output is correct. Conformal factuality filtering offers distribution-free statistical reliability by scoring and filtering atomic claims using a threshold calibrated on held-out data, however, the informativeness of the final output is not guaranteed. We systematically analyze the reliability and usefulness of conformal factuality for RAG-based LLMs across generation, scoring, calibration, robustness, and efficiency. We propose novel informativeness-aware metrics that better reflect task utility under conformal filtering. Across three benchmarks and multiple model families, we find that (i) conformal filtering suffers from low usefulness at high factuality levels due to vacuous outputs, (ii) conformal factuality guarantee is not robust to distribution shifts and distractors, highlighting the limitation that requires calibration data to closely match deployment conditions, and (iii) lightweight entailment-based verifiers match or outperform LLM-based model confidence scorers while requiring over 100times fewer FLOPs. Overall, our results expose factuality-informativeness trade-offs and fragility of conformal filtering framework under distribution shifts and distractors, highlighting the need for new approaches for reliability with robustness and usefulness as key metrics, and provide actionable guidance for building RAG pipelines that are both reliable and computationally efficient.

We present a framework for evaluating data-science agents on live, continuously updated data using executable ground truth and format-agnostic factoid scoring. Consider this example query: "what were last week's audience sizes"---the reference answer changes as the underlying data changes, so static references become outdated and standard LLM-as-a-judge pipelines cannot verify responses against a fixed ground truth. Our central contribution, ground-truth-as-code, encodes each expected answer as an executable reference function that recomputes the answer directly from live data at evaluation time, ensuring the reference remains consistent with the system it describes. We combine this with a factoid-level, format-agnostic judge that decomposes both the agent's response and the computed ground truth into atomic claims and scores precision, recall, and accuracy over them, irrespective of the response format (prose, list, table, HTML, etc.). The approach is applicable to agents whose expected outputs can be expressed as executable data computations. We validate the framework through a human--LLM agreement study on an internally developed machine learning skill deployed in production, using a synthetic database constructed to reproduce production schemas and entity relationships. Relative to a natural-language ground-truth baseline, our method achieves a 29% improvement in the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC)---a class-balanced measure of agreement between expert annotators and LLM-as-a-judge predictions---and a 16% reduction in token consumption per test case, while a self-directed baseline lacking explicit ground truth is anti-correlated with human judgment. Agents that perform multi-source data integration and computation over non-stationary data are routinely deployed in industry; we propose ground-truth-as-code as a practical methodology for their evaluation.

We present an approach to enhancing the realism of synthetic images. The images are enhanced by a convolutional network that leverages intermediate representations produced by conventional rendering pipelines. The network is trained via a novel adversarial objective, which provides strong supervision at multiple perceptual levels. We analyze scene layout distributions in commonly used datasets and find that they differ in important ways. We hypothesize that this is one of the causes of strong artifacts that can be observed in the results of many prior methods. To address this we propose a new strategy for sampling image patches during training. We also introduce multiple architectural improvements in the deep network modules used for photorealism enhancement. We confirm the benefits of our contributions in controlled experiments and report substantial gains in stability and realism in comparison to recent image-to-image translation methods and a variety of other baselines.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Predicting the evolution of complex physical systems remains a central problem in science and engineering. Despite rapid progress in scientific Machine Learning (ML) models, a critical bottleneck is the lack of expensive real-world data, resulting in most current models being trained and validated on simulated data. Beyond limiting the development and evaluation of scientific ML, this gap also hinders research into essential tasks such as sim-to-real transfer. We introduce RealPDEBench, the first benchmark for scientific ML that integrates real-world measurements with paired numerical simulations. RealPDEBench consists of five datasets, three tasks, eight metrics, and ten baselines. We first present five real-world measured datasets with paired simulated datasets across different complex physical systems. We further define three tasks, which allow comparisons between real-world and simulated data, and facilitate the development of methods to bridge the two. Moreover, we design eight evaluation metrics, spanning data-oriented and physics-oriented metrics, and finally benchmark ten representative baselines, including state-of-the-art models, pretrained PDE foundation models, and a traditional method. Experiments reveal significant discrepancies between simulated and real-world data, while showing that pretraining with simulated data consistently improves both accuracy and convergence. In this work, we hope to provide insights from real-world data, advancing scientific ML toward bridging the sim-to-real gap and real-world deployment. Our benchmark, datasets, and instructions are available at https://realpdebench.github.io/.

For many fundamental scene understanding tasks, it is difficult or impossible to obtain per-pixel ground truth labels from real images. We address this challenge by introducing Hypersim, a photorealistic synthetic dataset for holistic indoor scene understanding. To create our dataset, we leverage a large repository of synthetic scenes created by professional artists, and we generate 77,400 images of 461 indoor scenes with detailed per-pixel labels and corresponding ground truth geometry. Our dataset: (1) relies exclusively on publicly available 3D assets; (2) includes complete scene geometry, material information, and lighting information for every scene; (3) includes dense per-pixel semantic instance segmentations and complete camera information for every image; and (4) factors every image into diffuse reflectance, diffuse illumination, and a non-diffuse residual term that captures view-dependent lighting effects. We analyze our dataset at the level of scenes, objects, and pixels, and we analyze costs in terms of money, computation time, and annotation effort. Remarkably, we find that it is possible to generate our entire dataset from scratch, for roughly half the cost of training a popular open-source natural language processing model. We also evaluate sim-to-real transfer performance on two real-world scene understanding tasks - semantic segmentation and 3D shape prediction - where we find that pre-training on our dataset significantly improves performance on both tasks, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on the most challenging Pix3D test set. All of our rendered image data, as well as all the code we used to generate our dataset and perform our experiments, is available online.

Recent advances in deep learning have relied on large, labelled datasets to train high-capacity models. However, collecting large datasets in a time- and cost-efficient manner often results in label noise. We present a method for learning from noisy labels that leverages similarities between training examples in feature space, encouraging the prediction of each example to be similar to its nearest neighbours. Compared to training algorithms that use multiple models or distinct stages, our approach takes the form of a simple, additional regularization term. It can be interpreted as an inductive version of the classical, transductive label propagation algorithm. We thoroughly evaluate our method on datasets evaluating both synthetic (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100) and realistic (mini-WebVision, WebVision, Clothing1M, mini-ImageNet-Red) noise, and achieve competitive or state-of-the-art accuracies across all of them.

The rapid expansion of mobile internet has resulted in a substantial increase in user-generated content (UGC) images, thereby making the thorough assessment of UGC images both urgent and essential. Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in image quality assessment (IQA) and image aesthetic assessment (IAA). Despite this progress, effectively scoring the quality and aesthetics of UGC images still faces two main challenges: 1) A single score is inadequate to capture the hierarchical human perception. 2) How to use MLLMs to output numerical scores, such as mean opinion scores (MOS), remains an open question. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel dataset, named Realistic image Quality and Aesthetic (RealQA), including 14,715 UGC images, each of which is annoted with 10 fine-grained attributes. These attributes span three levels: low level (e.g., image clarity), middle level (e.g., subject integrity) and high level (e.g., composition). Besides, we conduct a series of in-depth and comprehensive investigations into how to effectively predict numerical scores using MLLMs. Surprisingly, by predicting just two extra significant digits, the next token paradigm can achieve SOTA performance. Furthermore, with the help of chain of thought (CoT) combined with the learnt fine-grained attributes, the proposed method can outperform SOTA methods on five public datasets for IQA and IAA with superior interpretability and show strong zero-shot generalization for video quality assessment (VQA). The code and dataset will be released.

The success of AI models relies on the availability of large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which can be challenging to obtain due to data scarcity, privacy concerns, and high costs. Synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution by generating artificial data that mimics real-world patterns. This paper provides an overview of synthetic data research, discussing its applications, challenges, and future directions. We present empirical evidence from prior art to demonstrate its effectiveness and highlight the importance of ensuring its factuality, fidelity, and unbiasedness. We emphasize the need for responsible use of synthetic data to build more powerful, inclusive, and trustworthy language models.

Generative Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 are capable of generating highly fluent responses to a wide variety of user prompts. However, LLMs are known to hallucinate facts and make non-factual statements which can undermine trust in their output. Existing fact-checking approaches either require access to token-level output probability distribution (which may not be available for systems such as ChatGPT) or external databases that are interfaced via separate, often complex, modules. In this work, we propose "SelfCheckGPT", a simple sampling-based approach that can be used to fact-check black-box models in a zero-resource fashion, i.e. without an external database. SelfCheckGPT leverages the simple idea that if a LLM has knowledge of a given concept, sampled responses are likely to be similar and contain consistent facts. However, for hallucinated facts, stochastically sampled responses are likely to diverge and contradict one another. We investigate this approach by using GPT-3 to generate passages about individuals from the WikiBio dataset, and manually annotate the factuality of the generated passages. We demonstrate that SelfCheckGPT can: i) detect non-factual and factual sentences; and ii) rank passages in terms of factuality. We compare our approach to several existing baselines and show that in sentence hallucination detection, our approach has AUC-PR scores comparable to grey-box methods, while SelfCheckGPT is best at passage factuality assessment.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown significant potential in scientific disciplines such as biomedicine, particularly in hypothesis generation, where they can analyze vast literature, identify patterns, and suggest research directions. However, a key challenge lies in evaluating the truthfulness of generated hypotheses, as verifying their accuracy often requires substantial time and resources. Additionally, the hallucination problem in LLMs can lead to the generation of hypotheses that appear plausible but are ultimately incorrect, undermining their reliability. To facilitate the systematic study of these challenges, we introduce TruthHypo, a benchmark for assessing the capabilities of LLMs in generating truthful biomedical hypotheses, and KnowHD, a knowledge-based hallucination detector to evaluate how well hypotheses are grounded in existing knowledge. Our results show that LLMs struggle to generate truthful hypotheses. By analyzing hallucinations in reasoning steps, we demonstrate that the groundedness scores provided by KnowHD serve as an effective metric for filtering truthful hypotheses from the diverse outputs of LLMs. Human evaluations further validate the utility of KnowHD in identifying truthful hypotheses and accelerating scientific discovery. Our data and source code are available at https://github.com/Teddy-XiongGZ/TruthHypo.

The fluency and creativity of large pre-trained language models (LLMs) have led to their widespread use, sometimes even as a replacement for traditional search engines. Yet language models are prone to making convincing but factually inaccurate claims, often referred to as 'hallucinations.' These errors can inadvertently spread misinformation or harmfully perpetuate misconceptions. Further, manual fact-checking of model responses is a time-consuming process, making human factuality labels expensive to acquire. In this work, we fine-tune language models to be more factual, without human labeling and targeting more open-ended generation settings than past work. We leverage two key recent innovations in NLP to do so. First, several recent works have proposed methods for judging the factuality of open-ended text by measuring consistency with an external knowledge base or simply a large model's confidence scores. Second, the direct preference optimization algorithm enables straightforward fine-tuning of language models on objectives other than supervised imitation, using a preference ranking over possible model responses. We show that learning from automatically generated factuality preference rankings, generated either through existing retrieval systems or our novel retrieval-free approach, significantly improves the factuality (percent of generated claims that are correct) of Llama-2 on held-out topics compared with RLHF or decoding strategies targeted at factuality. At 7B scale, compared to Llama-2-chat, we observe 58% and 40% reduction in factual error rate when generating biographies and answering medical questions, respectively.

Unifying diverse image generation tasks within a single framework remains a fundamental challenge in visual generation. While large language models (LLMs) achieve unification through task-agnostic data and generation, existing visual generation models fail to meet these principles. Current approaches either rely on per-task datasets and large-scale training or adapt pre-trained image models with task-specific modifications, limiting their generalizability. In this work, we explore video models as a foundation for unified image generation, leveraging their inherent ability to model temporal correlations. We introduce RealGeneral, a novel framework that reformulates image generation as a conditional frame prediction task, analogous to in-context learning in LLMs. To bridge the gap between video models and condition-image pairs, we propose (1) a Unified Conditional Embedding module for multi-modal alignment and (2) a Unified Stream DiT Block with decoupled adaptive LayerNorm and attention mask to mitigate cross-modal interference. RealGeneral demonstrates effectiveness in multiple important visual generation tasks, e.g., it achieves a 14.5% improvement in subject similarity for customized generation and a 10% enhancement in image quality for canny-to-image task. Project page: https://lyne1.github.io/RealGeneral/

AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.

Synthetic data (SIM) drawn from simulators have emerged as a popular alternative for training models where acquiring annotated real-world images is difficult. However, transferring models trained on synthetic images to real-world applications can be challenging due to appearance disparities. A commonly employed solution to counter this SIM2REAL gap is unsupervised domain adaptation, where models are trained using labeled SIM data and unlabeled REAL data. Mispredictions made by such SIM2REAL adapted models are often associated with miscalibration - stemming from overconfident predictions on real data. In this paper, we introduce AUGCAL, a simple training-time patch for unsupervised adaptation that improves SIM2REAL adapted models by - (1) reducing overall miscalibration, (2) reducing overconfidence in incorrect predictions and (3) improving confidence score reliability by better guiding misclassification detection - all while retaining or improving SIM2REAL performance. Given a base SIM2REAL adaptation algorithm, at training time, AUGCAL involves replacing vanilla SIM images with strongly augmented views (AUG intervention) and additionally optimizing for a training time calibration loss on augmented SIM predictions (CAL intervention). We motivate AUGCAL using a brief analytical justification of how to reduce miscalibration on unlabeled REAL data. Through our experiments, we empirically show the efficacy of AUGCAL across multiple adaptation methods, backbones, tasks and shifts.

We introduce the Unity Perception package which aims to simplify and accelerate the process of generating synthetic datasets for computer vision tasks by offering an easy-to-use and highly customizable toolset. This open-source package extends the Unity Editor and engine components to generate perfectly annotated examples for several common computer vision tasks. Additionally, it offers an extensible Randomization framework that lets the user quickly construct and configure randomized simulation parameters in order to introduce variation into the generated datasets. We provide an overview of the provided tools and how they work, and demonstrate the value of the generated synthetic datasets by training a 2D object detection model. The model trained with mostly synthetic data outperforms the model trained using only real data.

Modern image editing models can satisfy a text instruction while breaking the physics of the edited scene. A new object may cast no shadow, a mirror may fail to reflect visible geometry, or an object may float above a surface that should support it. We study physical plausibility diagnosis, detecting whether an edited image violates scene physics, naming the violation type, localizing the affected region, and explaining the failure in language. We introduce a counterfactual benchmark whose controlled synthetic component uses Mitsuba~3 to generate 5,500 images from 500 scene families. Each family contains one clean image and ten matched violations involving shadows, reflection, support, surface response, and occlusion. The renderer pipeline provides category labels, affected-region masks and boxes, scene metadata, and explanation targets. We use LLaVA-1.5-7B, Qwen2.5-VL-7B, and InternVL3.5-8B as diagnostic baselines rather than proposed methods. On a 1,650-image synthetic test set, the adapted baselines reach 64.0--67.8\% category macro-F1 on standard held-out scenes. For LLaVA-1.5-7B, category macro-F1 falls from 64.0\% on the standard split to 40.8\% under intervention shift. This gap shows that high in-distribution accuracy partly reflects cues tied to rendering and counterfactual construction.

Recent works have extended notions of feature importance to semantic concepts that are inherently interpretable to the users interacting with a black-box predictive model. Yet, precise statistical guarantees, such as false positive rate control, are needed to communicate findings transparently and to avoid unintended consequences in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we formalize the global (i.e., over a population) and local (i.e., for a sample) statistical importance of semantic concepts for the predictions of opaque models, by means of conditional independence, which allows for rigorous testing. We use recent ideas of sequential kernelized testing (SKIT) to induce a rank of importance across concepts, and showcase the effectiveness and flexibility of our framework on synthetic datasets as well as on image classification tasks using vision-language models such as CLIP.

Deploying a new decision policy creates a cold-start problem for prediction models whose targets depend on the policy's actions: historical observations reflect earlier policies, while real observations under the new policy are not yet available. Simulation offers a way to address this gap by rolling out the target policy across counterfactual scenarios and using the resulting trajectories to learn how the system responds to those controls. The simulation-to-reality (Sim2Real) transfer of this simulator-trained model can then be backtested by evaluating it against real observations from past deployments. Using two real-world inventory-control deployments, we evaluate this process from three angles: simulator fidelity, zero-shot transfer to real behavior, and adaptation as real target-policy observations accumulate. The simulator-trained forecaster achieves lower point-estimate mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) than the same architecture trained on historical real data, reducing MAPE by 1.2-3.1 percentage points in Study 1 and 12.5-18.7 points in Study 2. After deployment, lightweight calibration using early real observations further reduces error by up to 2.5 percentage points. These results provide empirical evidence that simulator-generated counterfactual data can support cold-start forecasting under a new policy, and the resulting model can be further refined as real deployment data become available.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on factoid question answering, they are still prone to hallucination and untruthful responses, particularly when tasks demand information outside their parametric knowledge. Indeed, truthfulness requires more than accuracy -- models must also recognize uncertainty and abstain when unsure to avoid hallucinations. This presents a fundamental challenge for existing methods: approaches that optimize for accuracy often amplify hallucinations, while those that encourage abstention can become overly conservative, sacrificing correct answers. Both extremes ultimately compromise truthfulness. In this work, we present TruthRL, a general reinforcement learning (RL) framework that directly optimizes the truthfulness of LLMs. Specifically, we implement TruthRL using GRPO with a simple yet effective ternary reward that distinguishes correct answers, hallucinations, and abstentions. It incentivizes models to reduce hallucinations not only by providing correct responses, but also by enabling abstention when uncertain, thereby improving truthfulness. Extensive experiments across four knowledge-intensive benchmarks show that, compared to vanilla RL, TruthRL significantly reduces hallucinations by 28.9% and improves truthfulness by 21.1%, with consistent gains across various backbone models (e.g., Qwen, Llama) under both retrieval and non-retrieval setups. In-depth ablation study demonstrates that vanilla accuracy-driven methods, such as supervised fine-tuning or RL with a binary reward, struggle to balance factual correctness and uncertainty. In contrast, our proposed truthfulness-driven TruthRL achieves strong performance in both accuracy and truthfulness, underscoring the importance of learning objective design for developing truthful LLMs.

We introduce REAL, a benchmark and framework for multi-turn agent evaluations on deterministic simulations of real-world websites. REAL comprises high-fidelity, deterministic replicas of 11 widely-used websites across domains such as e-commerce, travel, communication, and professional networking. We also release a benchmark consisting of 112 practical tasks that mirror everyday complex user interactions requiring both accurate information retrieval and state-changing actions. All interactions occur within this fully controlled setting, eliminating safety risks and enabling robust, reproducible evaluation of agent capability and reliability. Our novel evaluation framework combines programmatic checks of website state for action-based tasks with rubric-guided LLM-based judgments for information retrieval. The framework supports both open-source and proprietary agent systems through a flexible evaluation harness that accommodates black-box commands within browser environments, allowing research labs to test agentic systems without modification. Our empirical results show that frontier language models achieve at most a 41% success rate on REAL, highlighting critical gaps in autonomous web navigation and task completion capabilities. Our framework supports easy integration of new tasks, reproducible evaluation, and scalable post-training data generation, marking a significant step forward in evaluating and advancing agent capabilities.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Evaluating the factuality of long-form generations has focused predominantly on precision, measuring whether the claims a model makes are correct. The dominant decompose-search-verify pipeline catches incorrect claims well but says little about whether a response contains all the information it should. Measuring factual completeness, the missing half of factuality, is harder: it requires enumerating the full set of facts a complete answer should contain, and these facts rarely form a flat list. They often involve open-ended sets where coverage is what matters, ordered processes, and relationships among facts that a list of independent boolean checks fails to capture. We introduce a two-level meta-rubric framework for evaluating open-ended generation, and instantiate it as Gamut (Grounded Assessment of Multimodal Factuality), a benchmark for factual completeness in long-form generation. The framework rests on a two-level rubric representation: a structured meta-rubric captures the organization and importance of the required content, which is then mechanically compiled into a flat checklist of binary, machine-gradable rubrics that an LLM judge scores reliably. We construct 1,813 questions grounded in real wearable imagery across 10 diverse domains, each paired with an evidence-backed rubric verified by expert human annotators. Because the framework is modality-agnostic, we also release a text-only variant. Evaluating 14 frontier and open-weight models, we find the benchmark genuinely challenging (best score 58.7% from Gemini 3.1 Pro), highly discriminative, and robust to the choice of judge.

In the age of open and free information, a concerning trend of reliance on AI is emerging. However, existing AI tools struggle to evaluate the credibility of information and to justify their assessments. Hence, there is a growing need for systems that can help users evaluate the trustworthiness of online information. Although major search engines incorporate AI features, they often lack clear reliability indicators. We present TrueGL, a model that makes trustworthy search results more accessible. The model is a fine-tuned version of IBM's Granite-1B, trained on the custom dataset and integrated into a search engine with a reliability scoring system. We evaluate the system using prompt engineering and assigning each statement a continuous reliability score from 0.1 to 1, then instructing the model to return a textual explanation alongside the score. Each model's predicted scores are measured against real scores using standard evaluation metrics. TrueGL consistently outperforms other small-scale LLMs and rule-based approaches across all experiments on key evaluation metrics, including MAE, RMSE, and R2. The model's high accuracy, broad content coverage, and ease of use make trustworthy information more accessible and help reduce the spread of false or misleading content online. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/AlgazinovAleksandr/TrueGL, and our model is publicly released at https://huggingface.co/JoydeepC/trueGL.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

3D data simulation aims to bridge the gap between simulated and real-captured 3D data, which is a fundamental problem for real-world 3D visual tasks. Most 3D data simulation methods inject predefined physical priors but struggle to capture the full complexity of real data. An optimal approach involves learning an implicit mapping from synthetic to realistic data in a data-driven manner, but progress in this solution has met stagnation in recent studies. This work explores a new solution path of data-driven 3D simulation, called Stable-Sim2Real, based on a novel two-stage depth diffusion model. The initial stage finetunes Stable-Diffusion to generate the residual between the real and synthetic paired depth, producing a stable but coarse depth, where some local regions may deviate from realistic patterns. To enhance this, both the synthetic and initial output depth are fed into a second-stage diffusion, where diffusion loss is adjusted to prioritize these distinct areas identified by a 3D discriminator. We provide a new benchmark scheme to evaluate 3D data simulation methods. Extensive experiments show that training the network with the 3D simulated data derived from our method significantly enhances performance in real-world 3D visual tasks. Moreover, the evaluation demonstrates the high similarity between our 3D simulated data and real-captured patterns. Project page: https://mutianxu.github.io/stable-sim2real/.

We contribute the largest publicly available dataset of naturally occurring factual claims for the purpose of automatic claim verification. It is collected from 26 fact checking websites in English, paired with textual sources and rich metadata, and labelled for veracity by human expert journalists. We present an in-depth analysis of the dataset, highlighting characteristics and challenges. Further, we present results for automatic veracity prediction, both with established baselines and with a novel method for joint ranking of evidence pages and predicting veracity that outperforms all baselines. Significant performance increases are achieved by encoding evidence, and by modelling metadata. Our best-performing model achieves a Macro F1 of 49.2%, showing that this is a challenging testbed for claim veracity prediction.

Creating high-quality and realistic images is now possible thanks to the impressive advancements in image generation. A description in natural language of your desired output is all you need to obtain breathtaking results. However, as the use of generative models grows, so do concerns about the propagation of malicious content and misinformation. Consequently, the research community is actively working on the development of novel fake detection techniques, primarily focusing on low-level features and possible fingerprints left by generative models during the image generation process. In a different vein, in our work, we leverage human semantic knowledge to investigate the possibility of being included in frameworks of fake image detection. To achieve this, we collect a novel dataset of partially manipulated images using diffusion models and conduct an eye-tracking experiment to record the eye movements of different observers while viewing real and fake stimuli. A preliminary statistical analysis is conducted to explore the distinctive patterns in how humans perceive genuine and altered images. Statistical findings reveal that, when perceiving counterfeit samples, humans tend to focus on more confined regions of the image, in contrast to the more dispersed observational pattern observed when viewing genuine images. Our dataset is publicly available at: https://github.com/aimagelab/unveiling-the-truth.

Drone detection has benefited from improvements in deep neural networks, but like many other applications, suffers from the availability of accurate data for training. Synthetic data provides a potential for low-cost data generation and has been shown to improve data availability and quality. However, models trained on synthetic datasets need to prove their ability to perform on real-world data, known as the problem of sim-to-real transferability. Here, we present a drone detection Faster-RCNN model trained on a purely synthetic dataset that transfers to real-world data. We found that it achieves an AP_50 of 97.0% when evaluated on the MAV-Vid - a real dataset of flying drones - compared with 97.8% for an equivalent model trained on real-world data. Our results show that using synthetic data for drone detection has the potential to reduce data collection costs and improve labelling quality. These findings could be a starting point for more elaborate synthetic drone datasets. For example, realistic recreations of specific scenarios could de-risk the dataset generation of safety-critical applications such as the detection of drones at airports. Further, synthetic data may enable reliable drone detection systems, which could benefit other areas, such as unmanned traffic management systems. The code is available https://github.com/mazqtpopx/cranfield-synthetic-drone-detection alongside the datasets https://huggingface.co/datasets/mazqtpopx/cranfield-synthetic-drone-detection.

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.

Recent advances in video generation have produced vivid content that are often indistinguishable from real videos, making AI-generated video detection an emerging societal challenge. Prior AIGC detection benchmarks mostly evaluate video without audio, target broad narrative domains, and focus on classification solely. Yet it remains unclear whether state-of-the-art video generation models can produce immersive, audio-paired videos that reliably deceive humans and VLMs. To this end, we introduce Video Reality Test, an ASMR-sourced video benchmark suite for testing perceptual realism under tight audio-visual coupling, featuring the following dimensions: (i) Immersive ASMR video-audio sources. Built on carefully curated real ASMR videos, the benchmark targets fine-grained action-object interactions with diversity across objects, actions, and backgrounds. (ii) Peer-Review evaluation. An adversarial creator-reviewer protocol where video generation models act as creators aiming to fool reviewers, while VLMs serve as reviewers seeking to identify fakeness. Our experimental findings show: The best creator Veo3.1-Fast even fools most VLMs: the strongest reviewer (Gemini 2.5-Pro) achieves only 56\% accuracy (random 50\%), far below that of human experts (81.25\%). Adding audio improves real-fake discrimination, yet superficial cues such as watermarks can still significantly mislead models. These findings delineate the current boundary of video generation realism and expose limitations of VLMs in perceptual fidelity and audio-visual consistency. Our code is available at https://github.com/video-reality-test/video-reality-test.

Large Language Models are trained on vast amounts of text from the internet, which contains both factual and misleading information about the world. Can language models discern truth from falsehood in this contradicting data? Expanding on the view that LLMs can model different agents producing the corpora, we hypothesize that they can cluster truthful text by modeling a truthful persona: a group of agents that are likely to produce truthful text and share similar features. For example, trustworthy sources like Wikipedia and Science usually use formal writing styles and make consistent claims. By modeling this persona, LLMs can generalize truthfulness beyond the specific contexts in which each agent generated the training text. For example, the model can infer that the agent "Wikipedia" will behave truthfully on topics that were only generated by "Science" because they share a persona. We first show evidence for the persona hypothesis via two observations: (1) we can probe whether a model's answer will be truthful before it is generated; (2) finetuning a model on a set of facts improves its truthfulness on unseen topics. Next, using arithmetics as a synthetic environment, we show that language models can separate true and false statements, and generalize truthfulness across agents; but only if agents in the training data share a truthful generative process that enables the creation of a truthful persona. Overall, our findings suggest that models can exploit hierarchical structures in the data to learn abstract concepts like truthfulness.

Large language models often generate factually incorrect outputs, motivating efforts to detect the truthfulness of their content. Most existing approaches rely on training probes over internal activations, but these methods suffer from scalability and generalization issues. A recent training-free method, NoVo, addresses this challenge by exploiting statistical patterns from the model itself. However, it focuses exclusively on attention mechanisms, potentially overlooking the MLP module-a core component of Transformer models known to support factual recall. In this paper, we show that certain value vectors within MLP modules exhibit truthfulness-related statistical patterns. Building on this insight, we propose TruthV, a simple and interpretable training-free method that detects content truthfulness by leveraging these value vectors. On the NoVo benchmark, TruthV significantly outperforms both NoVo and log-likelihood baselines, demonstrating that MLP modules-despite being neglected in prior training-free efforts-encode rich and useful signals for truthfulness detection. These findings offer new insights into how truthfulness is internally represented in LLMs and motivate further research on scalable and interpretable truthfulness detection.

Factuality assesses the extent to which a language utterance relates to real-world information; it determines whether utterances correspond to facts, possibilities, or imaginary situations, and as such, it is instrumental for fact checking. Factuality is a complex notion that relies on multiple linguistic signals, and has been studied in various disciplines. We present a complex, multi-faceted annotation scheme of factuality that combines concepts from a variety of previous works. We developed the scheme for Hebrew, but we trust that it can be adapted to other languages. We also present a set of almost 5,000 sentences in the domain of parliamentary discourse that we manually annotated according to this scheme. We report on inter-annotator agreement, and experiment with various approaches to automatically predict (some features of) the scheme, in order to extend the annotation to a large corpus.

Simulation plays a crucial role in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) due to the potential risks associated with real-world testing. Although significant progress has been made in the visual aspects of simulators, generating complex behavior among agents remains a formidable challenge. It is not only imperative to ensure realism in the scenarios generated but also essential to incorporate preferences and conditions to facilitate controllable generation for AV training and evaluation. Traditional methods, mainly relying on memorizing the distribution of training datasets, often fall short in generating unseen scenarios. Inspired by the success of retrieval augmented generation in large language models, we present RealGen, a novel retrieval-based in-context learning framework for traffic scenario generation. RealGen synthesizes new scenarios by combining behaviors from multiple retrieved examples in a gradient-free way, which may originate from templates or tagged scenarios. This in-context learning framework endows versatile generative capabilities, including the ability to edit scenarios, compose various behaviors, and produce critical scenarios. Evaluations show that RealGen offers considerable flexibility and controllability, marking a new direction in the field of controllable traffic scenario generation. Check our project website for more information: https://realgen.github.io.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Despite recent advances in text-conditioned 3D indoor scene generation, there remain gaps in the evaluation of these methods. Existing metrics primarily assess the realism of generated scenes by comparing them to a set of ground-truth scenes, often overlooking alignment with the input text - a critical factor in determining how effectively a method meets user requirements. We present SceneEval, an evaluation framework designed to address this limitation. SceneEval includes metrics for both explicit user requirements, such as the presence of specific objects and their attributes described in the input text, and implicit expectations, like the absence of object collisions, providing a comprehensive assessment of scene quality. To facilitate evaluation, we introduce SceneEval-100, a dataset of scene descriptions with annotated ground-truth scene properties. We evaluate recent scene generation methods using SceneEval and demonstrate its ability to provide detailed assessments of the generated scenes, highlighting strengths and areas for improvement across multiple dimensions. Our results show that current methods struggle at generating scenes that meet user requirements, underscoring the need for further research in this direction.

Assessing factuality of text generated by large language models (LLMs) is an emerging yet crucial research area, aimed at alerting users to potential errors and guiding the development of more reliable LLMs. Nonetheless, the evaluators assessing factuality necessitate suitable evaluation themselves to gauge progress and foster advancements. This direction remains under-explored, resulting in substantial impediments to the progress of factuality evaluators. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a benchmark for Factuality Evaluation of large Language Models, referred to as felm. In this benchmark, we collect responses generated from LLMs and annotate factuality labels in a fine-grained manner. Contrary to previous studies that primarily concentrate on the factuality of world knowledge (e.g.~information from Wikipedia), felm focuses on factuality across diverse domains, spanning from world knowledge to math and reasoning. Our annotation is based on text segments, which can help pinpoint specific factual errors. The factuality annotations are further supplemented by predefined error types and reference links that either support or contradict the statement. In our experiments, we investigate the performance of several LLM-based factuality evaluators on felm, including both vanilla LLMs and those augmented with retrieval mechanisms and chain-of-thought processes. Our findings reveal that while retrieval aids factuality evaluation, current LLMs are far from satisfactory to faithfully detect factual errors.

Misinformation can be countered with fact-checking, but the process is costly and slow. Identifying checkworthy claims is the first step, where automation can help scale fact-checkers' efforts. However, detection methods struggle with content that is 1) multimodal, 2) from diverse domains, and 3) synthetic. We introduce HintsOfTruth, a public dataset for multimodal checkworthiness detection with 27K real-world and synthetic image/claim pairs. The mix of real and synthetic data makes this dataset unique and ideal for benchmarking detection methods. We compare fine-tuned and prompted Large Language Models (LLMs). We find that well-configured lightweight text-based encoders perform comparably to multimodal models but the first only focus on identifying non-claim-like content. Multimodal LLMs can be more accurate but come at a significant computational cost, making them impractical for large-scale applications. When faced with synthetic data, multimodal models perform more robustly

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

Vision-language models (VLMs) excel in zero-shot recognition but their performance varies greatly across different visual concepts. For example, although CLIP achieves impressive accuracy on ImageNet (60-80%), its performance drops below 10% for more than ten concepts like night snake, presumably due to their limited presence in the pretraining data. However, measuring the frequency of concepts in VLMs' large-scale datasets is challenging. We address this by using large language models (LLMs) to count the number of pretraining texts that contain synonyms of these concepts. Our analysis confirms that popular datasets, such as LAION, exhibit a long-tailed concept distribution, yielding biased performance in VLMs. We also find that downstream applications of VLMs, including visual chatbots (e.g., GPT-4V) and text-to-image models (e.g., Stable Diffusion), often fail to recognize or generate images of rare concepts identified by our method. To mitigate the imbalanced performance of zero-shot VLMs, we propose REtrieval-Augmented Learning (REAL). First, instead of prompting VLMs using the original class names, REAL uses their most frequent synonyms found in pretraining texts. This simple change already outperforms costly human-engineered and LLM-enriched prompts over nine benchmark datasets. Second, REAL trains a linear classifier on a small yet balanced set of pretraining data retrieved using concept synonyms. REAL surpasses the previous zero-shot SOTA, using 400x less storage and 10,000x less training time!

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of model representations on outputs. In response, many explainability methods make no use of counterfactual texts, assuming they will be unavailable. In this paper, we show that robust causal explainability methods can be created using approximate counterfactuals, which can be written by humans to approximate a specific counterfactual or simply sampled using metadata-guided heuristics. The core of our proposal is the Causal Proxy Model (CPM). A CPM explains a black-box model N because it is trained to have the same actual input/output behavior as N while creating neural representations that can be intervened upon to simulate the counterfactual input/output behavior of N. Furthermore, we show that the best CPM for N performs comparably to N in making factual predictions, which means that the CPM can simply replace N, leading to more explainable deployed models. Our code is available at https://github.com/frankaging/Causal-Proxy-Model.

The rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) and the real world has outpaced the static nature of widely used evaluation benchmarks, raising concerns about their reliability for evaluating LLM factuality. While substantial works continue to rely on the popular but old benchmarks, their temporal misalignment with real-world facts and modern LLMs, and their effects on LLM factuality evaluation remain underexplored. Therefore, in this work, we present a systematic investigation of this issue by examining five popular factuality benchmarks and eight LLMs released across different years. An up-to-date fact retrieval pipeline and three metrics are tailored to quantify benchmark aging and its impact on LLM factuality evaluation. Experimental results and analysis illustrate that a considerable portion of samples in the widely used factuality benchmarks are outdated, leading to unreliable assessments of LLM factuality. We hope our work can provide a testbed to assess the reliability of a benchmark for LLM factuality evaluation and inspire more research on the benchmark aging issue. Codes are available in https://github.com/JiangXunyi/BenchAge.

We study how to characterize and predict the truthfulness of texts generated from large language models (LLMs), which serves as a crucial step in building trust between humans and LLMs. Although several approaches based on entropy or verbalized uncertainty have been proposed to calibrate model predictions, these methods are often intractable, sensitive to hyperparameters, and less reliable when applied in generative tasks with LLMs. In this paper, we suggest investigating internal activations and quantifying LLM's truthfulness using the local intrinsic dimension (LID) of model activations. Through experiments on four question answering (QA) datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness ohttps://info.arxiv.org/help/prep#abstractsf our proposed method. Additionally, we study intrinsic dimensions in LLMs and their relations with model layers, autoregressive language modeling, and the training of LLMs, revealing that intrinsic dimensions can be a powerful approach to understanding LLMs.

Real-world deployment of embodied agents requires active exploration, visual grounding, and interactive intent disambiguation. However, existing frameworks often rely on privileged simulator states or assume complete instructions, bypassing realistic deployment challenges. To bridge this gap, we present REAL, an agentic framework for open-world mobile manipulation. REAL establishes sim-to-real-consistent environment APIs without oracle perception and integrates a simulated user to enable human-in-the-loop interaction. Within this environment, we design diverse task compositions to drive data collection, supervised fine-tuning, and online reinforcement learning, systematically optimizing agent performance. To comprehensively evaluate this approach, we introduce REAL-Bench, a benchmark spanning 241 tasks across active exploration, visual distraction, articulated manipulation, and interactive disambiguation. Experimental results demonstrate that our trained agent outperforms leading commercial closed-source VLMs on interactive tasks with a 56.9% success rate. Further empirical analysis reveals that our hierarchical training pipeline successfully aligns the model's tool-use capabilities while maintaining robust open-vocabulary reasoning under extended exploration horizons. Finally, we deploy and evaluate our framework on a physical dual-arm mobile robot, where it achieves a 78.3% end-to-end success rate over 60 real-world episodes. These physical trials demonstrate robust zero-shot transferability to unseen household scenarios, validating that our sim-to-real-consistent design successfully bridges the reality gap for long-horizon mobile manipulation. Code is available at https://github.com/InternRobotics/REAL.

Existing real-world datasets for multimodal fact-checking have multiple limitations: they contain few instances, cover on only one or two languages, focus only on one task, or rely on external news article sets for sourcing true claims. To address these shortcomings, we introduce M4FC, a new real-world dataset comprising 4,982 images paired with 6,980 claims. The images, verified by professional fact-checkers from 22 organizations, represent a diverse range of cultural and geographic contexts. Each claim is available in one or two out of ten languages. M4FC spans six multimodal fact-checking tasks: visual claim extraction, claimant intent prediction, fake image detection, image contextualization, location verification, and verdict prediction. We provide baseline results for all tasks and analyze how combining intermediate tasks affects verdict prediction performance. We make our dataset and code publicly available.

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit unwanted and factually incorrect text. In this work, we propose a novel calibration method that can be used to combat hallucinations. We add a special [IDK] ("I don't know") token to the model's vocabulary and introduce an objective function that shifts probability mass to the [IDK] token for incorrect predictions. This approach allows the model to express uncertainty in its output explicitly. We evaluate our proposed method across multiple model architectures and factual downstream tasks. We find that models trained with our method are able to express uncertainty in places where they would previously make mistakes while suffering only a small loss of encoded knowledge. We further perform extensive ablation studies of multiple variations of our approach and provide a detailed analysis of the precision-recall tradeoff of our method.

Machine learning requires data, but acquiring and labeling real-world data is challenging, expensive, and time-consuming. More importantly, it is nearly impossible to alter real data post-acquisition (e.g., change the illumination of a room), making it very difficult to measure how specific properties of the data affect performance. In this paper, we present AI Playground (AIP), an open-source, Unreal Engine-based tool for generating and labeling virtual image data. With AIP, it is trivial to capture the same image under different conditions (e.g., fidelity, lighting, etc.) and with different ground truths (e.g., depth or surface normal values). AIP is easily extendable and can be used with or without code. To validate our proposed tool, we generated eight datasets of otherwise identical but varying lighting and fidelity conditions. We then trained deep neural networks to predict (1) depth values, (2) surface normals, or (3) object labels and assessed each network's intra- and cross-dataset performance. Among other insights, we verified that sensitivity to different settings is problem-dependent. We confirmed the findings of other studies that segmentation models are very sensitive to fidelity, but we also found that they are just as sensitive to lighting. In contrast, depth and normal estimation models seem to be less sensitive to fidelity or lighting and more sensitive to the structure of the image. Finally, we tested our trained depth-estimation networks on two real-world datasets and obtained results comparable to training on real data alone, confirming that our virtual environments are realistic enough for real-world tasks.

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.

Generating synthetic data through generative models is gaining interest in the ML community and beyond, promising a future where datasets can be tailored to individual needs. Unfortunately, synthetic data is usually not perfect, resulting in potential errors in downstream tasks. In this work we explore how the generative process affects the downstream ML task. We show that the naive synthetic data approach -- using synthetic data as if it is real -- leads to downstream models and analyses that do not generalize well to real data. As a first step towards better ML in the synthetic data regime, we introduce Deep Generative Ensemble (DGE) -- a framework inspired by Deep Ensembles that aims to implicitly approximate the posterior distribution over the generative process model parameters. DGE improves downstream model training, evaluation, and uncertainty quantification, vastly outperforming the naive approach on average. The largest improvements are achieved for minority classes and low-density regions of the original data, for which the generative uncertainty is largest.

Machine learning approaches to spatiotemporal physical systems have primarily focused on next-frame prediction, with the goal of learning an accurate emulator for the system's evolution in time. However, these emulators are computationally expensive to train and are subject to performance pitfalls, such as compounding errors during autoregressive rollout. In this work, we take a different perspective and look at scientific tasks further downstream of predicting the next frame, such as estimation of a system's governing physical parameters. Accuracy on these tasks offers a uniquely quantifiable glimpse into the physical relevance of the representations of these models. We evaluate the effectiveness of general-purpose self-supervised methods in learning physics-grounded representations that are useful for downstream scientific tasks. Surprisingly, we find that not all methods designed for physical modeling outperform generic self-supervised learning methods on these tasks, and methods that learn in the latent space (e.g., joint embedding predictive architectures, or JEPAs) outperform those optimizing pixel-level prediction objectives. Code is available at https://github.com/helenqu/physical-representation-learning.

Prior research on training grounded factuality classification models to detect hallucinations in large language models (LLMs) has relied on public natural language inference (NLI) data and synthetic data. However, conventional NLI datasets are not well-suited for document-level reasoning, which is critical for detecting LLM hallucinations. Recent approaches to document-level synthetic data generation involve iteratively removing sentences from documents and annotating factuality using LLM-based prompts. While effective, this method is computationally expensive for long documents and limited by the LLM's capabilities. In this work, we analyze the differences between existing synthetic training data used in state-of-the-art models and real LLM output claims. Based on our findings, we propose a novel approach for synthetic data generation, CG2C, that leverages multi-hop reasoning on context graphs extracted from documents. Our fact checker model, FactCG, demonstrates improved performance with more connected reasoning, using the same backbone models. Experiments show it even outperforms GPT-4-o on the LLM-Aggrefact benchmark with much smaller model size.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly perform multi-step reasoning, where intermediate claims form implicit directed acyclic graphs whose node correctness is structurally conditioned on their ancestors. This makes factuality uncertainty structural, rather than a trivial accumulation of node-wise errors, and necessitates inference-time uncertainty quantification over the reasoning structure. While conformal prediction (CP) offers flexible user-specified factuality control, existing work remains post-hoc and cannot intervene during generation. To fill the gap between CP's flexibility and its post-hoc limitation, we propose an Inference-Time Conformal Reasoning (ITCR) framework that integrates CP directly into reasoning graph generation. ITCR learns a structure-level factuality uncertainty function that aggregates claim-level factuality signals over reasoning graphs without complex modeling assumptions. We then design the non-conformity score based on graph-level factuality uncertainty and calibrate the conformal threshold to decide when to stop generation. We theoretically show such generation is nested, yielding valid coverage guarantees for factuality control. Experiments over multiple datasets and coverage objectives demonstrate empirically valid coverage. In downstream reasoning tasks, inference-time calibrated graphs yield more accurate generation than post-hoc pruned graphs.

The widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) has facilitated numerous benefits. However, hallucination is a significant concern. In response, Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as a highly promising paradigm to improve LLM outputs by grounding them in factual information. RAG relies on textual entailment (TE) or similar methods to check if the text produced by LLMs is supported or contradicted, compared to retrieved documents. This paper argues that conventional TE methods are inadequate for spotting hallucinations in content generated by LLMs. For instance, consider a prompt about the 'USA's stance on the Ukraine war''. The AI-generated text states, ...U.S. President Barack Obama says the U.S. will not put troops in Ukraine...'' However, during the war the U.S. president is Joe Biden which contradicts factual reality. Moreover, current TE systems are unable to accurately annotate the given text and identify the exact portion that is contradicted. To address this, we introduces a new type of TE called ``Factual Entailment (FE).'', aims to detect factual inaccuracies in content generated by LLMs while also highlighting the specific text segment that contradicts reality. We present FACTOID (FACTual enTAILment for hallucInation Detection), a benchmark dataset for FE. We propose a multi-task learning (MTL) framework for FE, incorporating state-of-the-art (SoTA) long text embeddings such as e5-mistral-7b-instruct, along with GPT-3, SpanBERT, and RoFormer. The proposed MTL architecture for FE achieves an avg. 40\% improvement in accuracy on the FACTOID benchmark compared to SoTA TE methods. As FE automatically detects hallucinations, we assessed 15 modern LLMs and ranked them using our proposed Auto Hallucination Vulnerability Index (HVI_auto). This index quantifies and offers a comparative scale to evaluate and rank LLMs according to their hallucinations.

Capable language models hold what a character believes apart from what is true: told "Anna believes the cup is blue; in reality it is red," they answer blue about Anna and red about the world. Where in the computation does that separation live? We show it rests on two separable mechanisms at two positions. A generic value slot binds the attributed value. A router at the query position selects which frame, the character's belief or reality, a query reads out. Two routes fill the slot: an asserted belief, whose value the text supplies, binds in directly; a derived belief, whose value must be inferred from what the character could see, arrives by a visibility-gated lookback. A subspace trained on either route steers the other, and only the derived route depends on described visibility. The slot itself carries no belief-reality tag: intervening on it moves a reality readout as strongly as a belief one. The separation lives instead in a dissociated pair of routing subspaces, which flip a query between frames without injecting the donor's value. These results hold across three architectures, on stimuli de-confounded against theory-of-mind-benchmark shortcuts; the behavior itself emerges between 3B and 7B across five model families. This paper develops the single belief-reality axis in depth; a companion paper shows the same slot-and-router format is shared across the other non-actual contexts a sentence can open (counterfactual, fictional, temporal).

Recent language models have a mysterious tendency to generate false but plausible-sounding text. Such "hallucinations" are an obstacle to the usability of language-based AI systems and can harm people who rely upon their outputs. This work shows shows that there is an inherent statistical reason that pretrained language models hallucinate certain types of facts, having nothing to do with the transformer LM architecture or data quality. For "arbitrary" facts whose veracity cannot be determined from the training data, we show that hallucination is necessary for language models that satisfy a statistical calibration condition appropriate for generative language models. Specifically, if the maximum probability of any fact is bounded, we show that the probability of generating a hallucination is close to the fraction of facts that occur exactly once in the training data (a "Good-Turing" estimate), even assuming ideal training data without errors. One conclusion is that models pretrained to be sufficiently good predictors (i.e., calibrated) may require post-training to mitigate hallucinations on the type of arbitrary facts that tend to appear once in the training set. However, our analysis also suggests that there is no statistical reason that pretraining will lead to hallucination on facts that tend to appear more than once in the training data (like references to publications such as articles and books, whose hallucinations have been particularly notable and problematic) or on systematic facts (like arithmetic calculations). Therefore, different architectures and learning algorithms may mitigate these latter types of hallucinations.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. sim40.2%to56.6%), validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io

Hallucination in large language models (LLMs) remains an acute concern, contributing to the spread of misinformation and diminished public trust, particularly in high-risk domains. Among hallucination types, factuality is crucial, as it concerns a model's alignment with established world knowledge. Adversarial factuality, defined as the deliberate insertion of misinformation into prompts with varying levels of expressed confidence, tests a model's ability to detect and resist confidently framed falsehoods. Existing work lacks high-quality, domain-specific resources for assessing model robustness under such adversarial conditions, and no prior research has examined the impact of injected misinformation on long-form text factuality. To address this gap, we introduce AdversaRiskQA, the first verified and reliable benchmark systematically evaluating adversarial factuality across Health, Finance, and Law. The benchmark includes two difficulty levels to test LLMs' defensive capabilities across varying knowledge depths. We propose two automated methods for evaluating the adversarial attack success and long-form factuality. We evaluate six open- and closed-source LLMs from the Qwen, GPT-OSS, and GPT families, measuring misinformation detection rates. Long-form factuality is assessed on Qwen3 (30B) under both baseline and adversarial conditions. Results show that after excluding meaningless responses, Qwen3 (80B) achieves the highest average accuracy, while GPT-5 maintains consistently high accuracy. Performance scales non-linearly with model size, varies by domains, and gaps between difficulty levels narrow as models grow. Long-form evaluation reveals no significant correlation between injected misinformation and the model's factual output. AdversaRiskQA provides a valuable benchmark for pinpointing LLM weaknesses and developing more reliable models for high-stakes applications.

Deep generative models have made tremendous progress in modeling complex data, often exhibiting generation quality that surpasses a typical human's ability to discern the authenticity of samples. Undeniably, a key driver of this success is enabled by the massive amounts of web-scale data consumed by these models. Due to these models' striking performance and ease of availability, the web will inevitably be increasingly populated with synthetic content. Such a fact directly implies that future iterations of generative models must contend with the reality that their training is curated from both clean data and artificially generated data from past models. In this paper, we develop a framework to rigorously study the impact of training generative models on mixed datasets (of real and synthetic data) on their stability. We first prove the stability of iterative training under the condition that the initial generative models approximate the data distribution well enough and the proportion of clean training data (w.r.t. synthetic data) is large enough. We empirically validate our theory on both synthetic and natural images by iteratively training normalizing flows and state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR10 and FFHQ.

The growing use of language models for forecasting motivates a broader evaluation of their world-model capabilities. Such evaluation must go beyond predictive accuracy to assess hidden-state inference and intervention prediction. Real-world forecasting benchmarks offer limited access to hidden-state ground truth and controlled experiments. We introduce CivWorldBench, a benchmark built on a multi-agent strategy game engine with recorded internal states, controlled observations, and paired intervention rollouts. Its 1,900 decision points from 475 worlds support three task levels: association forecasting, belief inference, and intervention prediction. Reference predictors support attributable evaluation of capability gaps, with an expert harness and empirical ceiling estimates contextualizing scores. Stored trajectories make intermediate predictions verifiable, while agent-play experiments test whether world-model capabilities support decision-making. The main panel comprises eleven frontier language models. Composite benchmark scores correlate with real-world forecasting leaderboards on matched model panels, more closely than with a general-capability index, supporting its use as a proxy for real-world forecasting capability. Strong association forecasts do not consistently extend to belief inference or intervention prediction, and effect magnitudes remain poorly calibrated despite informative direction predictions. Process verification reveals errors missed by final-answer evaluation, and structured reasoning improves intervention prediction for the strongest model in the process study. Agent-play experiments identify useful assisted plans and motivate evaluating decision-relevant capabilities beyond association forecasting. These findings identify hidden-state inference, intermediate-state prediction, and effect calibration as priorities for world-model training.

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

We analyze the storage and recall of factual associations in autoregressive transformer language models, finding evidence that these associations correspond to localized, directly-editable computations. We first develop a causal intervention for identifying neuron activations that are decisive in a model's factual predictions. This reveals a distinct set of steps in middle-layer feed-forward modules that mediate factual predictions while processing subject tokens. To test our hypothesis that these computations correspond to factual association recall, we modify feed-forward weights to update specific factual associations using Rank-One Model Editing (ROME). We find that ROME is effective on a standard zero-shot relation extraction (zsRE) model-editing task, comparable to existing methods. To perform a more sensitive evaluation, we also evaluate ROME on a new dataset of counterfactual assertions, on which it simultaneously maintains both specificity and generalization, whereas other methods sacrifice one or another. Our results confirm an important role for mid-layer feed-forward modules in storing factual associations and suggest that direct manipulation of computational mechanisms may be a feasible approach for model editing. The code, dataset, visualizations, and an interactive demo notebook are available at https://rome.baulab.info/

Text-to-image customization, which takes given texts and images depicting given subjects as inputs, aims to synthesize new images that align with both text semantics and subject appearance. This task provides precise control over details that text alone cannot capture and is fundamental for various real-world applications, garnering significant interest from academia and industry. Existing works follow the pseudo-word paradigm, which involves representing given subjects as pseudo-words and combining them with given texts to collectively guide the generation. However, the inherent conflict and entanglement between the pseudo-words and texts result in a dual-optimum paradox, where subject similarity and text controllability cannot be optimal simultaneously. We propose a novel real-words paradigm termed RealCustom++ that instead represents subjects as non-conflict real words, thereby disentangling subject similarity from text controllability and allowing both to be optimized simultaneously. Specifically, RealCustom++ introduces a novel "train-inference" decoupled framework: (1) During training, RealCustom++ learns the alignment between vision conditions and all real words in the text, ensuring high subject-similarity generation in open domains. This is achieved by the cross-layer cross-scale projector to robustly and finely extract subject features, and a curriculum training recipe that adapts the generated subject to diverse poses and sizes. (2) During inference, leveraging the learned general alignment, an adaptive mask guidance is proposed to only customize the generation of the specific target real word, keeping other subject-irrelevant regions uncontaminated to ensure high text-controllability in real-time.

With the rapid development of AI-generated content, the future internet may be inundated with synthetic data, making the discrimination of authentic and credible multimodal data increasingly challenging. Synthetic data detection has thus garnered widespread attention, and the performance of large multimodal models (LMMs) in this task has attracted significant interest. LMMs can provide natural language explanations for their authenticity judgments, enhancing the explainability of synthetic content detection. Simultaneously, the task of distinguishing between real and synthetic data effectively tests the perception, knowledge, and reasoning capabilities of LMMs. In response, we introduce LOKI, a novel benchmark designed to evaluate the ability of LMMs to detect synthetic data across multiple modalities. LOKI encompasses video, image, 3D, text, and audio modalities, comprising 18K carefully curated questions across 26 subcategories with clear difficulty levels. The benchmark includes coarse-grained judgment and multiple-choice questions, as well as fine-grained anomaly selection and explanation tasks, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of LMMs. We evaluated 22 open-source LMMs and 6 closed-source models on LOKI, highlighting their potential as synthetic data detectors and also revealing some limitations in the development of LMM capabilities. More information about LOKI can be found at https://opendatalab.github.io/LOKI/

We introduce FAITHSCORE (Faithfulness to Atomic Image Facts Score), a reference-free and fine-grained evaluation metric that measures the faithfulness of the generated free-form answers from large vision-language models (LVLMs). The FAITHSCORE evaluation first identifies sub-sentences containing descriptive statements that need to be verified, then extracts a comprehensive list of atomic facts from these sub-sentences, and finally conducts consistency verification between fine-grained atomic facts and the input image. Meta-evaluation demonstrates that our metric highly correlates with human judgments of faithfulness. We collect two benchmark datasets (i.e. LLaVA-1k and MSCOCO-Cap) for evaluating LVLMs instruction-following hallucinations. We measure hallucinations in state-of-the-art LVLMs with FAITHSCORE on the datasets. Results reveal that current systems are prone to generate hallucinated content unfaithful to the image, which leaves room for future improvements. Further, we find that current LVLMs despite doing well on color and counting, still struggle with long answers, relations, and multiple objects.

Uncertainty learning and quantification of models are crucial tasks to enhance the trustworthiness of the models. Importantly, the recent surge of generative language models (GLMs) emphasizes the need for reliable uncertainty quantification due to the concerns on generating hallucinated facts. In this paper, we propose to learn neural prediction set models that comes with the probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantee for quantifying the uncertainty of GLMs. Unlike existing prediction set models, which are parameterized by a scalar value, we propose to parameterize prediction sets via neural networks, which achieves more precise uncertainty quantification but still satisfies the PAC guarantee. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on four types of language datasets and six types of models by showing that our method improves the quantified uncertainty by 63% on average, compared to a standard baseline method.

Reasoning Large Language Models (R-LLMs) have significantly advanced complex reasoning tasks but often struggle with factuality, generating substantially more hallucinations than their non-reasoning counterparts on long-form factuality benchmarks. However, extending online Reinforcement Learning (RL), a key component in recent R-LLM advancements, to the long-form factuality setting poses several unique challenges due to the lack of reliable verification methods. Previous work has utilized automatic factuality evaluation frameworks such as FActScore to curate preference data in the offline RL setting, yet we find that directly leveraging such methods as the reward in online RL leads to reward hacking in multiple ways, such as producing less detailed or relevant responses. We propose a novel reward function that simultaneously considers the factual precision, response detail level, and answer relevance, and applies online RL to learn high quality factual reasoning. Evaluated on six long-form factuality benchmarks, our factual reasoning model achieves an average reduction of 23.1 percentage points in hallucination rate, a 23% increase in answer detail level, and no degradation in the overall response helpfulness.

Training and evaluating robot policies in the real world is costly and difficult to scale. We introduce SimFoundry, a modular and automated system for zero-shot real-to-sim scene construction from a video. SimFoundry generates sim-ready digital twins and supports object, scene, and task editing, enabling the automated generation of diverse digital cousins: affordance-preserving variations of reconstructed real-world scenes. Policies trained on SimFoundry data transfer zero-shot to challenging real tasks involving multi-step manipulation, articulated object interaction, and bimanual interaction, and its digital cousins (variations of the original scene, objects, and tasks) facilitate generalization to new real-world conditions. Across 7 manipulation tasks and 5 policy architectures, SimFoundry simulation evaluations strongly predict real-world performance, with mean Pearson correlation 0.911 and mean maximum ranking violation 0.018. When evaluating sim-trained policies zero-shot in the real world, policies trained with object, scene, and task cousins in simulation show average task success rate improvements of 17%, 21%, and 40%, respectively. Additional details at https://research.nvidia.com/labs/gear/simfoundry/ .

Many real-world prediction problems lack labels observable at prediction time, creating a temporal gap between prediction and outcome that yields supervision only after events resolve. To address this setting, we extend reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards to temporally resolved real-world prediction, and use it to train language models to make probabilistic forecasts under causally masked information with retrospective evaluation using proper scoring rules. Supervision is derived solely from post-resolution outcomes, preserving delayed-reward semantics. On real-world forecasting benchmarks, Qwen3-32B trained using Foresight Learning improves Brier score by 27% and halves calibration error relative to its pretrained baseline, and outperforms Qwen3-235B on both constructed future-event prediction tasks and the Metaculus benchmark despite a 7x parameter disadvantage.

Recent works explore how real and synthetic data contribute to Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models' generalization. While current VLA models have shown the strong effectiveness of large-scale real-robot pre-training, synthetic data has not previously demonstrated comparable capability at scale. This paper provides the first evidence that synthetic data alone can match the performance of the strongest π-dataset in pre-training a VLA model, revealing the substantial value of large-scale simulation. The resulting model also exhibits surprisingly zero-shot sim-to-real transfer on several challenging tasks. Our synthetic dataset, InternData-A1, contains over 630k trajectories and 7,433 hours across 4 embodiments, 18 skills, 70 tasks, and 227 scenes, covering rigid, articulated, deformable, and fluid-object manipulation. It is generated through a highly autonomous, fully decoupled, and compositional simulation pipeline that enables long-horizon skill composition, flexible task assembly, and heterogeneous embodiments with minimal manual tuning. Using the same architecture as π_0, we pre-train a model entirely on InternData-A1 and find that it matches the official π_0 across 49 simulation tasks, 5 real-world tasks, and 4 long-horizon dexterous tasks. We release the dataset and will open-source the generation pipeline to broaden access to large-scale robotic data and to lower the barrier to scalable data creation for embodied AI research.

Why do language models sometimes prefer correct statements even when trained on mixed-quality data? We introduce the Compression--Consistency Principle: next-token prediction favors hypotheses that allow shorter and more internally consistent descriptions of the training data. Truth bias emerges only when false alternatives are structurally harder to compress. We test this using small GPT-2-style character-level transformers (3.5M--86M parameters) on synthetic math corpora with controlled mixtures of correct and incorrect rules. In the random-error setting, models strongly prefer correct completions in paired evaluation: 83.1% accuracy at balanced data and 67.0% even when correct rules appear in only 10% of the corpus. Replacing random errors with a coherent but mathematically incorrect rule system largely eliminates the preference (near-chance accuracy). In a more natural-language-like synthetic world, the effect is weaker but still present (57.7%). Additional experiments show that embedding verification steps can restore preference for correctness even at small scale, while increasing the number of consistent rules produces a graded improvement in accuracy. Our results suggest that what appears as a "truth bias" is largely a side effect of compression pressure and preference for internal consistency, rather than an intrinsic drive toward truth. Full code and data are available at https://github.com/Rai220/compression-drives-truth.