Daily Papers

Vaccine supply chain optimization can benefit from hierarchical time series forecasting, when grouping the vaccines by type or location. However, forecasts of different hierarchy levels become incoherent when higher levels do not match the sum of the lower levels forecasts, which can be addressed by reconciliation methods. In this paper, we tackle the vaccine sale forecasting problem by modeling sales data from GSK between 2010 and 2021 as a hierarchical time series. After forecasting future values with several ARIMA models, we systematically compare the performance of various reconciliation methods, using statistical tests. We also compare the performance of the forecast before and after COVID. The results highlight Minimum Trace and Weighted Least Squares with Structural scaling as the best performing methods, which provided a coherent forecast while reducing the forecast error of the baseline ARIMA.

Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation (MMRAG) has been introduced to enhance Multimodal Large Language Models by incorporating externally retrieved multimodal knowledge, but it introduces two challenges: Parametric-Retrieved Knowledge Inconsistency (PRKI), where discrepancies between parametric and retrieved knowledge create uncertainty in determining reliability, and Visual-Textual Knowledge Inconsistency (VTKI), where misalignment between visual and textual sources disrupts entity representation. To address these challenges, we propose Cross-source knowledge Reconciliation for Multimodal RAG (CoRe-MMRAG), a novel end-to-end framework that effectively reconciles inconsistencies across knowledge sources. CoRe-MMRAG follows a four-stage pipeline: it first generates an internal response from parametric knowledge, then selects the most relevant multimodal evidence via joint similarity assessment, generates an external response, and finally integrates both to produce a reliable answer. Additionally, a specialized training paradigm enhances knowledge source discrimination, multimodal integration, and unified answer generation. Experiments on KB-VQA benchmarks show that CoRe-MMRAG achieves substantial improvements over baseline methods, achieving 5.6% and 9.3% performance gains on InfoSeek and Encyclopedic-VQA, respectively.

Transformers have gained popularity in time series forecasting for their ability to capture long-sequence interactions. However, their high memory and computing requirements pose a critical bottleneck for long-term forecasting. To address this, we propose TSMixer, a lightweight neural architecture exclusively composed of multi-layer perceptron (MLP) modules for multivariate forecasting and representation learning on patched time series. Inspired by MLP-Mixer's success in computer vision, we adapt it for time series, addressing challenges and introducing validated components for enhanced accuracy. This includes a novel design paradigm of attaching online reconciliation heads to the MLP-Mixer backbone, for explicitly modeling the time-series properties such as hierarchy and channel-correlations. We also propose a novel Hybrid channel modeling and infusion of a simple gating approach to effectively handle noisy channel interactions and generalization across diverse datasets. By incorporating these lightweight components, we significantly enhance the learning capability of simple MLP structures, outperforming complex Transformer models with minimal computing usage. Moreover, TSMixer's modular design enables compatibility with both supervised and masked self-supervised learning methods, making it a promising building block for time-series Foundation Models. TSMixer outperforms state-of-the-art MLP and Transformer models in forecasting by a considerable margin of 8-60%. It also outperforms the latest strong benchmarks of Patch-Transformer models (by 1-2%) with a significant reduction in memory and runtime (2-3X). The source code of our model is officially released as PatchTSMixer in the HuggingFace. Model: https://huggingface.co/docs/transformers/main/en/model_doc/patchtsmixer Examples: https://github.com/ibm/tsfm/#notebooks-links

Financial institutions deploy Large Language Models (LLMs) for reconciliations, regulatory reporting, and client communications, but nondeterministic outputs (output drift) undermine auditability and trust. We quantify drift across five model architectures (7B-120B parameters) on regulated financial tasks, revealing a stark inverse relationship: smaller models (Granite-3-8B, Qwen2.5-7B) achieve 100% output consistency at T=0.0, while GPT-OSS-120B exhibits only 12.5% consistency (95% CI: 3.5-36.0%) regardless of configuration (p<0.0001, Fisher's exact test). This finding challenges conventional assumptions that larger models are universally superior for production deployment. Our contributions include: (i) a finance-calibrated deterministic test harness combining greedy decoding (T=0.0), fixed seeds, and SEC 10-K structure-aware retrieval ordering; (ii) task-specific invariant checking for RAG, JSON, and SQL outputs using finance-calibrated materiality thresholds (plus or minus 5%) and SEC citation validation; (iii) a three-tier model classification system enabling risk-appropriate deployment decisions; and (iv) an audit-ready attestation system with dual-provider validation. We evaluated five models (Qwen2.5-7B via Ollama, Granite-3-8B via IBM watsonx.ai, Llama-3.3-70B, Mistral-Medium-2505, and GPT-OSS-120B) across three regulated financial tasks. Across 480 runs (n=16 per condition), structured tasks (SQL) remain stable even at T=0.2, while RAG tasks show drift (25-75%), revealing task-dependent sensitivity. Cross-provider validation confirms deterministic behavior transfers between local and cloud deployments. We map our framework to Financial Stability Board (FSB), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requirements, demonstrating practical pathways for compliance-ready AI deployments.

Preserving first-frame identity while ensuring precise motion control is a fundamental challenge in human image animation. The Image-to-Motion Binding process of the dominant Reference-to-Video (R2V) paradigm overlooks critical spatio-temporal misalignments common in real-world applications, leading to failures such as identity drift and visual artifacts. We introduce SteadyDancer, an Image-to-Video (I2V) paradigm-based framework that achieves harmonized and coherent animation and is the first to ensure first-frame preservation robustly. Firstly, we propose a Condition-Reconciliation Mechanism to harmonize the two conflicting conditions, enabling precise control without sacrificing fidelity. Secondly, we design Synergistic Pose Modulation Modules to generate an adaptive and coherent pose representation that is highly compatible with the reference image. Finally, we employ a Staged Decoupled-Objective Training Pipeline that hierarchically optimizes the model for motion fidelity, visual quality, and temporal coherence. Experiments demonstrate that SteadyDancer achieves state-of-the-art performance in both appearance fidelity and motion control, while requiring significantly fewer training resources than comparable methods.

The trade-off between robustness and accuracy has been widely studied in the adversarial literature. Although still controversial, the prevailing view is that this trade-off is inherent, either empirically or theoretically. Thus, we dig for the origin of this trade-off in adversarial training and find that it may stem from the improperly defined robust error, which imposes an inductive bias of local invariance -- an overcorrection towards smoothness. Given this, we advocate employing local equivariance to describe the ideal behavior of a robust model, leading to a self-consistent robust error named SCORE. By definition, SCORE facilitates the reconciliation between robustness and accuracy, while still handling the worst-case uncertainty via robust optimization. By simply substituting KL divergence with variants of distance metrics, SCORE can be efficiently minimized. Empirically, our models achieve top-rank performance on RobustBench under AutoAttack. Besides, SCORE provides instructive insights for explaining the overfitting phenomenon and semantic input gradients observed on robust models. Code is available at https://github.com/P2333/SCORE.

Wigner's Friend-type paradoxes challenge the assumption that events are absolute -- that when we measure a system, we obtain a single result, which is not relative to anything or anyone else. These paradoxes highlight the tension between quantum theory and our intuitions about reality being observer-independent. Building on a recent result that developed these paradoxes into a no-go theorem, namely the Local Friendliness Theorem, we introduce the Causal Friendliness Paradox, a time-ordered analogue of it. In this framework, we replace the usual locality assumption with Axiological Time Symmetry (ATS), and show that, when combined with the assumptions of Absoluteness of Observed Events (AOE), No Retrocausality (NRC), and Screening via Pseudo Events (SPE), we obtain a causal inequality. We then show that quantum mechanics violates this inequality and is therefore incompatible with at least one of these assumptions. To probe which assumption might be incompatible, we then examine whether AOE in its entirety is essential for this no-go result. We propose a weaker, operational form of AOE that still leads to inequalities that quantum mechanics violates. This result shows that even under relaxed assumptions, quantum theory resists reconciliation with classical notions of absolute events, reinforcing the foundational significance of Wigner's Friend-type paradoxes in timelike scenarios.

We introduce the concept of temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) in predicting day-ahead electricity prices and show that reconciling forecasts for hourly products, 2- to 12-hour blocks, and baseload contracts significantly (up to 13%) improves accuracy at all levels. These results remain consistent throughout a challenging 4-year test period (2021-2024) in the German power market and across model architectures, including linear regression, a shallow neural network, gradient boosting, and a state-of-the-art transformer. Given that (i) trading of block products is becoming more common and (ii) the computational cost of reconciliation is comparable to that of predicting hourly prices alone, we recommend using it in daily forecasting practice.

We carefully evaluate a number of algorithms for learning in a federated environment, and test their utility for a variety of image classification tasks. We consider many issues that have not been adequately considered before: whether learning over data sets that do not have diverse sets of images affects the results; whether to use a pre-trained feature extraction "backbone"; how to evaluate learner performance (we argue that classification accuracy is not enough), among others. Overall, across a wide variety of settings, we find that vertically decomposing a neural network seems to give the best results, and outperforms more standard reconciliation-used methods.

Most successful information extraction systems operate with access to a large collection of documents. In this work, we explore the task of acquiring and incorporating external evidence to improve extraction accuracy in domains where the amount of training data is scarce. This process entails issuing search queries, extraction from new sources and reconciliation of extracted values, which are repeated until sufficient evidence is collected. We approach the problem using a reinforcement learning framework where our model learns to select optimal actions based on contextual information. We employ a deep Q-network, trained to optimize a reward function that reflects extraction accuracy while penalizing extra effort. Our experiments on two databases -- of shooting incidents, and food adulteration cases -- demonstrate that our system significantly outperforms traditional extractors and a competitive meta-classifier baseline.

We introduce SimpleQA Verified, a 1,000-prompt benchmark for evaluating Large Language Model (LLM) short-form factuality based on OpenAI's SimpleQA. It addresses critical limitations in OpenAI's benchmark, including noisy and incorrect labels, topical biases, and question redundancy. SimpleQA Verified was created through a rigorous multi-stage filtering process involving de-duplication, topic balancing, and source reconciliation to produce a more reliable and challenging evaluation set, alongside improvements in the autorater prompt. On this new benchmark, Gemini 2.5 Pro achieves a state-of-the-art F1-score of 55.6, outperforming other frontier models, including GPT-5. This work provides the research community with a higher-fidelity tool to track genuine progress in parametric model factuality and to mitigate hallucinations. The benchmark dataset, evaluation code, and leaderboard are available at: https://www.kaggle.com/benchmarks/deepmind/simpleqa-verified.

Large language models have achieved remarkable capabilities across domains, yet mechanisms underlying sophisticated reasoning remain elusive. Recent reasoning models outperform comparable instruction-tuned models on complex cognitive tasks, attributed to extended computation through longer chains of thought. Here we show that enhanced reasoning emerges not from extended computation alone, but from simulating multi-agent-like interactions -- a society of thought -- which enables diversification and debate among internal cognitive perspectives characterized by distinct personality traits and domain expertise. Through quantitative analysis and mechanistic interpretability methods applied to reasoning traces, we find that reasoning models like DeepSeek-R1 and QwQ-32B exhibit much greater perspective diversity than instruction-tuned models, activating broader conflict between heterogeneous personality- and expertise-related features during reasoning. This multi-agent structure manifests in conversational behaviors, including question-answering, perspective shifts, and the reconciliation of conflicting views, and in socio-emotional roles that characterize sharp back-and-forth conversations, together accounting for the accuracy advantage in reasoning tasks. Controlled reinforcement learning experiments reveal that base models increase conversational behaviors when rewarded solely for reasoning accuracy, and fine-tuning models with conversational scaffolding accelerates reasoning improvement over base models. These findings indicate that the social organization of thought enables effective exploration of solution spaces. We suggest that reasoning models establish a computational parallel to collective intelligence in human groups, where diversity enables superior problem-solving when systematically structured, which suggests new opportunities for agent organization to harness the wisdom of crowds.

As large language models (LLMs) evolve into tool-using agents, the ability to browse the web in real-time has become a critical yardstick for measuring their reasoning and retrieval competence. Existing benchmarks such as BrowseComp concentrate on English and overlook the linguistic, infrastructural, and censorship-related complexities of other major information ecosystems -- most notably Chinese. To address this gap, we introduce BrowseComp-ZH, a high-difficulty benchmark purpose-built to comprehensively evaluate LLM agents on the Chinese web. BrowseComp-ZH consists of 289 multi-hop questions spanning 11 diverse domains. Each question is reverse-engineered from a short, objective, and easily verifiable answer (e.g., a date, number, or proper noun). A two-stage quality control protocol is applied to strive for high question difficulty and answer uniqueness. We benchmark over 20 state-of-the-art language models and agentic search systems on our proposed BrowseComp-ZH. Despite their strong conversational and retrieval capabilities, most models struggle severely: a large number achieve accuracy rates below 10%, and only a handful exceed 20%. Even the best-performing system, OpenAI's DeepResearch, reaches just 42.9%. These results demonstrate the considerable difficulty of BrowseComp-ZH, where success demands not only effective retrieval strategies, but also sophisticated reasoning and information reconciliation -- capabilities that current models still struggle to master. Our dataset, construction guidelines, and benchmark results have been publicly released at https://github.com/PALIN2018/BrowseComp-ZH.