Daily Papers

Large language models are increasingly used for content moderation, but most evaluations still report aggregate accuracy on individual benchmarks. We introduce Safety-Flag, which places seven widely used safety benchmarks (BeaverTails, XSTest, Ethics, WildGuard, Aegis, ToxiChat, and ToxiGen) into a single balanced flag / do-not-flag protocol. We release item-level decisions and confidence scores for six general-purpose LLMs and four dedicated guards, together with three reference models, evaluated on the same items. Safety-Flag measures three dimensions of moderator reliability: error direction, probability calibration, and confidence-based error ranking for human review. They often disagree. Aggregate accuracy does not reveal error direction: one model flags 85% of benign content, whereas another misses 54% of harmful content. All six general-purpose models are overconfident; fitting one temperature per model reduces calibration error by 2.8--6.0times without changing predicted labels or confidence ordering. Confidence-based abstention lowers selective risk for every model, although the gains depend on how well confidence ranks errors. Dedicated guards produce fewer false alarms and are better calibrated, but several have higher miss rates outside their documented coverage. We release the benchmark, fixed item lists, evaluation code, per-item model outputs, and leaderboard at: https://github.com/yibo-hu-lab/safety-flag-benchmark.

Medical models are judged not only on correctness, but on whether reported confidence matches actual accuracy. Generalist multimodal medical models have expanded what a single model can perceive, yet they still express bounded decisions such as diagnoses, findings or cell counts as generated text, so the reported probability reflects the next token rather than the decision itself. Motivated by decision-native interfaces such as Jev, we introduce OmniMed-Jev, which represents each medical decision as a Choice, Noul or Score decision over a runtime-supplied candidate set and returns a full distribution over that set: mutually exclusive classes, binary presence of a finding, or a bounded ordered value. The design is omni in three respects: it accepts diverse imaging modalities, covers different prediction tasks, and expresses them through one candidate-conditioned probability model, so heterogeneous outputs become comparable probabilities rather than task-specific strings. In an interface-controlled comparison against a generative baseline trained on the same backbone, data and schedule, OmniMed-Jev's reported probabilities track observed correctness far more closely, reducing calibration error by up to an order of magnitude and reliability error by up to two, while point-prediction performance remains comparable; counting is the one family where the generative baseline stays ahead. Making the decision distribution the model's output is not a format change but what turns reported numbers into probabilities that mean what they say. These results support explicit decision modeling as a way to make reported confidence meaningful within the evaluated tasks, and they are not evidence of clinical readiness: the comparison cannot separate the interface from associated training differences, which we state alongside the results. Code is available at github.com/lytang63/OmniMed-Jev.

Speech technology remains out of reach for most of the over 2300 languages in Africa. We present the first systematic assessment of large-scale synthetic voice corpora for African ASR. We apply a three-step process: LLM-driven text creation, TTS voice synthesis, and ASR fine-tuning. Eight out of ten languages for which we create synthetic text achieved readability scores above 5 out of 7. We evaluated ASR improvement for three (Hausa, Dholuo, Chichewa) and created more than 2,500 hours of synthetic voice data at below 1% of the cost of real data. Fine-tuned Wav2Vec-BERT-2.0 models trained on 250h real and 250h synthetic Hausa matched a 500h real-data-only baseline, while 579h real and 450h to 993h synthetic data created the best performance. We also present gender-disaggregated ASR performance evaluation. For very low-resource languages, gains varied: Chichewa WER improved about 6.5% relative with a 1:2 real-to-synthetic ratio; a 1:1 ratio for Dholuo showed similar improvements on some evaluation data, but not on others. Investigating intercoder reliability, ASR errors and evaluation datasets revealed the need for more robust reviewer protocols and more accurate evaluation data. All data and models are publicly released to invite further work to improve synthetic data for African languages.

Long-form text-to-speech (TTS) enables multi-turn conversations with consistent prosody and higher quality voice cloning from longer reference audio. Recent open-weights autoregressive TTS models such as Qwen3-TTS and VoxCPM2 attain state-of-the-art word error rate (WER) and speaker similarity (SIM) on short-form prompts but significantly deteriorate when used with long-form prompts. We propose Localized Attention-Constrained Inference (LACI), an inference-only method to detect TTS errors in near real-time, roll back to the error onset and regenerate with temporary guardrails, adding negligible computational overhead. Using LACI, we improve worst-of-N WER across 10 RNG seeds for Qwen3-TTS-0.6B from 35.2% to 3.4% on prompts longer than 1500 words, even surpassing its short-form reliability of 5.4\% on prompts with fewer than 500 words. To demonstrate the efficacy of LACI on voice cloning reliability, we propose a sliding-window version of the SIM metric that we call wSIM. wSIM exposes several novel failure patterns that are not captured by SIM. LACI improves worst-of-N wSIM from 0.01 to 0.47 on 120 seconds of reference audio while reducing the rate of catastrophic generations with WER above 30% from 26% to below 1%

Identifying subtle technical errors within complex scientific and technical documents, especially those requiring multimodal interpretation (e.g., formulas in images), presents a significant hurdle for Large Language Models (LLMs) whose inherent error-correction tendencies can mask inaccuracies. This exploratory proof-of-concept (PoC) study investigates structured LLM context conditioning, informed by Persistent Workflow Prompting (PWP) principles, as a methodological strategy to modulate this LLM behavior at inference time. The approach is designed to enhance the reliability of readily available, general-purpose LLMs (specifically Gemini 2.5 Pro and ChatGPT Plus o3) for precise validation tasks, crucially relying only on their standard chat interfaces without API access or model modifications. To explore this methodology, we focused on validating chemical formulas within a single, complex test paper with known textual and image-based errors. Several prompting strategies were evaluated: while basic prompts proved unreliable, an approach adapting PWP structures to rigorously condition the LLM's analytical mindset appeared to improve textual error identification with both models. Notably, this method also guided Gemini 2.5 Pro to repeatedly identify a subtle image-based formula error previously overlooked during manual review, a task where ChatGPT Plus o3 failed in our tests. These preliminary findings highlight specific LLM operational modes that impede detail-oriented validation and suggest that PWP-informed context conditioning offers a promising and highly accessible technique for developing more robust LLM-driven analytical workflows, particularly for tasks requiring meticulous error detection in scientific and technical documents. Extensive validation beyond this limited PoC is necessary to ascertain broader applicability.

Reference-free evaluation metrics for grammatical error correction (GEC) have achieved high correlation with human judgments. However, these metrics are not designed to evaluate adversarial systems that aim to obtain unjustifiably high scores. The existence of such systems undermines the reliability of automatic evaluation, as it can mislead users in selecting appropriate GEC systems. In this study, we propose adversarial attack strategies for four reference-free metrics: SOME, Scribendi, IMPARA, and LLM-based metrics, and demonstrate that our adversarial systems outperform the current state-of-the-art. These findings highlight the need for more robust evaluation methods.

As Neural Processing Units (NPU) or accelerators are increasingly deployed in a variety of applications including safety critical applications such as autonomous vehicle, and medical imaging, it is critical to understand the fault-tolerance nature of the NPUs. We present a reliability study of Arm's Ethos-U55, an important industrial-scale NPU being utilised in embedded and IoT applications. We perform large scale RTL-level fault injections to characterize Ethos-U55 against the Automotive Safety Integrity Level D (ASIL-D) resiliency standard commonly used for safety-critical applications such as autonomous vehicles. We show that, under soft errors, all four configurations of the NPU fall short of the required level of resiliency for a variety of neural networks running on the NPU. We show that it is possible to meet the ASIL-D level resiliency without resorting to conventional strategies like Dual Core Lock Step (DCLS) that has an area overhead of 100%. We achieve so through selective protection, where hardware structures are selectively protected (e.g., duplicated, hardened) based on their sensitivity to soft errors and their silicon areas. To identify the optimal configuration that minimizes the area overhead while meeting the ASIL-D standard, the main challenge is the large search space associated with the time-consuming RTL simulation. To address this challenge, we present a statistical analysis tool that is validated against Arm silicon and that allows us to quickly navigate hundreds of billions of fault sites without exhaustive RTL fault injections. We show that by carefully duplicating a small fraction of the functional blocks and hardening the Flops in other blocks meets the ASIL-D safety standard while introducing an area overhead of only 38%.

Making language models solve constraint problems reliably often means having them translate the problem into a formal specification and delegating the search to a sound solver. But the translation is itself a language-model task, and an unfaithful translation makes the solver faithfully solve the wrong problem. Existing pipelines repair only translations that crash, returning the solver's error message and falling silent when the program runs but is wrong. We replace the error message with a proof: when the generated program is unsatisfiable, we extract a minimal unsatisfiable core over the model's own constraints and hand it back the exact set that cannot hold together, a leakage-free signal that localizes the fault. On a new benchmark of 77 problems with an exact oracle, translation to Answer Set Programming is faithful on six of seven domains and fails only on aggregate coverage scheduling, which concentrates the translation tax in one diagnosable pattern. A minimal core, rather than a bare error, is what stops a weaker model from fabricating solutions to infeasible problems, cutting fabrication from 79% to 7%. A strong chain-of-thought baseline meanwhile matches the symbolic route on accuracy, so the route's value is not accuracy but certificates and its refusal to fabricate.

Evaluating the performance of Grammatical Error Correction (GEC) models has become increasingly challenging, as large language model (LLM)-based GEC systems often produce corrections that diverge from provided gold references. This discrepancy undermines the reliability of traditional reference-based evaluation metrics. In this study, we propose a novel evaluation framework for GEC models, DSGram, integrating Semantic Coherence, Edit Level, and Fluency, and utilizing a dynamic weighting mechanism. Our framework employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in conjunction with large language models to ascertain the relative importance of various evaluation criteria. Additionally, we develop a dataset incorporating human annotations and LLM-simulated sentences to validate our algorithms and fine-tune more cost-effective models. Experimental results indicate that our proposed approach enhances the effectiveness of GEC model evaluations.

When deploying large language models (LLMs), it is important to ensure that these models are not only capable, but also reliable. Many benchmarks have been created to track LLMs' growing capabilities, however there has been no similar focus on measuring their reliability. To understand the potential ramifications of this gap, we investigate how well current benchmarks quantify model reliability. We find that pervasive label errors can compromise these evaluations, obscuring lingering model failures and hiding unreliable behavior. Motivated by this gap in the evaluation of reliability, we then propose the concept of so-called platinum benchmarks, i.e., benchmarks carefully curated to minimize label errors and ambiguity. As a first attempt at constructing such benchmarks, we revise examples from fifteen existing popular benchmarks. We evaluate a wide range of models on these platinum benchmarks and find that, indeed, frontier LLMs still exhibit failures on simple tasks such as elementary-level math word problems. Analyzing these failures further reveals previously unidentified patterns of problems on which frontier models consistently struggle. We provide code at https://github.com/MadryLab/platinum-benchmarks

We propose claim-level falsification as a principle for test-time scaling and instantiate it through Claim-Level Reliability Assessment (CLR), a training-free framework that reallocates test-time compute from additional solution sampling to targeted verification. Since whole-trace evaluation often obscures decisive errors due to signal dilution from routine tokens, CLR condenses each reasoning trace into a compact set of decision-critical claims, thereby isolating its logical anchors. Furthermore, recognizing the inherent difficulty of generating entirely correct solutions under fixed model capabilities, CLR shifts the focus to semantic falsification. This approach exploits a fundamental asymmetry between solution construction and claim refutation. Constructing a valid solution requires a flawless reasoning path, whereas refuting an incorrect claim requires identifying only a single decisive flaw. This targeted search for negative evidence systematically compresses the survival space of high-confidence incorrect traces, effectively suppressing erroneous consensus via nonlinear reliability scoring. Across four LLMs and four reasoning benchmarks under matched budgets, CLR generally improves upon pass@1 and self-consistency. On GPT-OSS-20B/CMIMC25, for instance, CLR exceeds pass@1 by 27.15 percentage-points and raises self-consistency accuracy from 77.50\% to 82.19\% with 37.0\% fewer tokens.

Banking assistants must use account-specific information to answer requests and, in many cases, take actions through tools. Evaluating only the final response misses important errors. An assistant may ask for information it already has, rely on stale context, select the wrong account, or write an invalid value after stating the correct one. We introduce IndicBankBench, a 799-case benchmark for Indian retail banking spanning five operational domains, a capability/refusal domain, and twenty primary axes. Cases are evaluated at four stages: safety, action and tool use, response adequacy, and advisory quality. Tool use and most safety checks are deterministic. A narrow resolver handles only ambiguous confirmation-before-write cases, while a separate LLM judge evaluates semantic response adequacy. We run every case three times and report strict pass^3, which requires success on all trials. Across the eleven evaluated models, strict reliability ranges from 43.7% to 58.2%, whereas at-least-once success ranges from 60% to 74%. This gap shows that at-least-once success can overstate dependable banking behavior. The case-level diagnostics also distinguish systems that ask unnecessary questions from those that act but fail to reconcile customer context or fully resolve the request. We release the cases, mock environment, and evaluation harness.

Despite the strong performance of large language models (LLMs) across a wide range of tasks, they still have reliability issues. Previous studies indicate that strong LLMs like GPT-4-turbo excel in evaluating the reliability of responses from LLMs, but face efficiency and local deployment issues. Thus, to enable weak LLMs to effectively assess the reliability of LLM responses, we propose a novel cross-query-comparison-based method called Meta Ranking (MR). Unlike previous few-shot methods that solely based on in-context learning capabilities in LLMs, MR assesses reliability by pairwisely ranking the target query-response pair with multiple reference query-response pairs. We found that MR is highly effective in error detection for LLM responses, where weak LLMs, such as Phi-2, could surpass strong baselines like GPT-3.5-turbo, requiring only five reference samples and significantly improving efficiency. We further demonstrate that MR can enhance strong LLMs' performance in two practical applications: model cascading and instruction tuning. In model cascading, we combine open- and closed-source LLMs to achieve performance comparable to GPT-4-turbo with lower costs. In instruction tuning, we use MR for iterative training data filtering, significantly reducing data processing time and enabling LLaMA-7B and Phi-2 to surpass Alpaca-13B with fewer training tokens. These results underscore the high potential of MR in both efficiency and effectiveness.

Large language models (LLMs) are now rapidly advancing and surpassing human abilities on many natural language tasks. However, aligning these super-human LLMs with human knowledge remains challenging because the supervision signals from human annotators may be wrong. This issue, known as the "super-alignment" problem, requires enhancing weak-to-strong generalization, where a strong LLM must generalize from imperfect supervision provided by a weaker source. To address this issue, we propose an approach to improve weak-to-strong generalization by involving the reliability of weak supervision signals in the alignment process. In our method, we query the weak supervisor for multiple answers, estimate the answer reliability, and enhance the alignment process by filtering out uncertain data or re-weighting reliable data. Experiments on four datasets demonstrate that our methods effectively identify the quality of weak labels and significantly enhance weak-to-strong generalization. Our work presents effective techniques for error-robust model alignment, reducing error propagation from noisy supervision and enhancing the accuracy and reliability of LLMs. Codes are publicly available at http://github.com/Irenehere/ReliableAlignment.

Optical Character Recognition (OCR) of eighteenth-century printed texts remains challenging due to degraded print quality, archaic glyphs, and non-standardized orthography. Although transformer-based OCR systems and Vision-Language Models (VLMs) achieve strong aggregate accuracy, metrics such as Character Error Rate (CER) and Word Error Rate (WER) provide limited insight into their reliability for scholarly use. We compare a dedicated OCR transformer (TrOCR) and a general-purpose Vision-Language Model (Qwen) on line-level historical English texts using length-weighted accuracy metrics and hypothesis driven error analysis. While Qwen achieves lower CER/WER and greater robustness to degraded input, it exhibits selective linguistic regularization and orthographic normalization that may silently alter historically meaningful forms. TrOCR preserves orthographic fidelity more consistently but is more prone to cascading error propagation. Our findings show that architectural inductive biases shape OCR error structure in systematic ways. Models with similar aggregate accuracy can differ substantially in error locality, detectability, and downstream scholarly risk, underscoring the need for architecture-aware evaluation in historical digitization workflows.

Single-prompt accuracy is the dominant way to benchmark language models, but it can miss reliability failures that matter. We evaluate a 15-model open-weight corpus, with the main reliability analyses focused on 10 instruct models across five classification and reasoning benchmarks under five prompt variants each, measuring accuracy, token-probability calibration, verbal-confidence calibration, verbal parse rate, and prompt-perturbation spread for every (model x dataset x variant) cell. We find three broad results. First, evaluation design can materially change the conclusion. Switching Expected Calibration Error (ECE) token from a raw to a label-set-normalised definition changes per-cell calibration by a mean absolute 0.149. More strikingly, pairing a chain-of-thought prompt with a first-character evaluator on ARC-Challenge reduces apparent accuracy by 72-88% across all five primary models; two independent repair procedures recover 93.8% and 102.7% of the lost performance, indicating an evaluator-side rather than model-side failure. Second, confidence signals are fragile. On MMLU-Pro, every primary model verbally reports confidence substantially above both its accuracy and its token-probability confidence on the same rows, and verbal parse rate can collapse for a single model on a single prompt variant. Third, prompt robustness does not track parameter count reliably. Across 10 instruct models, the correlation between model size and prompt-perturbation spread ranges from -0.244 to 0.474 across benchmarks. Taken together, these results show that reliability conclusions for small language models depend not only on the model being evaluated, but also on the evaluation pipeline used to measure it. We argue that calibration definitions, evaluator logic, verbal parseability, and prompt robustness should be reported explicitly when making reliability claims.

Automated evaluation of tool-using large language model (LLM) agents is widely assumed to be reliable, but this assumption has rarely been validated against human annotation. We introduce AgentProp-Bench, a 2,000-task benchmark with 2,300 traces across four domains, nine production LLMs, and a 100-label human-validated subset. We quantify judge reliability, characterize error propagation, and evaluate a runtime mitigation. Substring-based judging agrees with human annotation at kappa=0.049 (chance-level); a three-LLM ensemble reaches kappa=0.432 (moderate) with a conservative bias. Under validated evaluation, a parameter-level injection propagates to a wrong final answer with human-calibrated probability approximately 0.62 (range 0.46-0.73 across models). Rejection (catching bad parameters) and recovery (correcting after acceptance) are independent model capabilities (Spearman rho=0.126, p=0.747). A tuned runtime interceptor reduces hallucination on GPT-4o-mini by 23.0 percentage points under a concurrent n=600 control, but shows no significant effect on Gemini-2.0-Flash, whose aggressive parameter rejection eliminates the target failure mode. All code, data, traces, and human labels are released at https://github.com/bhaskargurram-ai/agenthallu-bench.

Silent data corruption (SDC) threatens the reliability of large-scale GPU clusters used for training large language models, yet its rarity and lack of explicit error signals make accurate high-level modeling challenging. To address this gap, we conducted a large-scale gate-level stuck-at fault injection on a production-class data-center GPU, consuming over three million simulator hours across 63 CUDA micro-benchmarks. We extracted GPU SDC characteristics in terms of corruption types, bit-flip behavior, and warp-aligned spatial correlation. Our results show that NaN/+INF/-INF account for only 1.01% of SDC outcomes, that single-bit flips constitute less than 40% of bit-flip events, and that corruption addresses exhibit periodicity. These statistics motivate distribution-aware high-level fault modeling and realistic software-based fault injection for resilience evaluation of production-class GPU architectures.

On-Policy Distillation (OPD) trains a student on its own generations using teacher feedback. With different tokenizers, comparing teacher and student predictions requires alignment at both sequence and vocabulary levels. In this paper, we examine whether expanding this alignment coverage improves learning. Across three heterogeneous teacher--student pairs on mathematical reasoning and code generation, strict 1:1 groups already cover most student-generated tokens despite substantial vocabulary mismatch. On responses sampled from the students before distillation, the shared vocabulary retains nearly all teacher and student probability mass at strictly aligned positions on average. Restricting reverse KL to a student-selected top-16 subset of the shared vocabulary at each strict position achieves accuracy comparable to full shared-vocabulary OPD, outperforming the evaluated cross-tokenizer baselines. Adding mean squared error supervision on span log-probabilities in mismatch groups gives complete supervision coverage, yet reduces accuracy. At checkpoints from training with only the strict loss, the span gradients show weak or negative directional agreement with the strict gradients and grow in magnitude relative to them. These diagnostics may help explain the accuracy drop from adding span supervision. Our findings motivate a shift from maximizing alignment coverage to prioritizing supervision reliability: compact supervision at strict positions can be more effective than broader coverage that introduces weakly aligned or conflicting training signals.

Finite element simulations carried out on meshes issued from real-world geometries - patient-specific anatomies, scanned industrial parts, fractured media - almost never satisfy the shape-regularity assumptions under which classical a posteriori error analysis is written. Practitioners are therefore left without a quantitative answer to a very legitimate question: how wrong is my simulation when my mesh is coarse and contains badly shaped elements? In this work, we study to which extent equilibrated flux estimators can provide such an answer. Indeed, they deliver a guaranteed and fully computable upper bound of the energy-norm discretization error, with a constant equal to one; and, crucially for the present study, its derivation uses no shape-regularity, quasi-uniformity or angle condition. The only geometric ingredient is the Poincaré constant on a single cell, which Payne and Weinberger showed to be at most hK /pi on any convex cell K, however distorted (hK being the cell size). Mesh quality affects the local efficiency - the sharpness of the estimator - but never its reliability, so that the failure mode under distortion is pessimism rather than false confidence.

Memory is essential for enabling large language models to support long-horizon reasoning, yet existing memory systems remain unreliable and difficult to debug. Tracing memory's dynamic evolution is crucial to understand how information is synthesized, propagated, or corrupted over time. In this work, we study the new problem of error tracing and attribution in LLM memory systems. We propose a novel framework that transforms memory pipelines into executable memory evolution graphs, enabling fine-grained tracing of operational information flow. We then construct MemTraceBench, a benchmark collected from representative memory systems such as Long-Context, RAG, Mem0, and EverMemOS, to systematically study memory failure modes. We further introduce an automatic attribution method that iteratively traces operation subgraphs to pinpoint the root cause of any failed case. Our analysis reveals that memory failures are systematic, stemming from operation-level issues like information loss and retrieval misalignment. Crucially, we leverage these fine-grained attribution signals to guide downstream prompt optimization, establishing a closed-loop system that automatically corrects faults and boosts end-task performance by up to 7.62%. Code will be released at https://github.com/zjunlp/MemTrace.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown growing potential in molecular sciences, but they often produce chemically inaccurate descriptions and struggle to recognize or justify potential errors. This raises important concerns about their robustness and reliability in scientific applications. To support more rigorous evaluation of LLMs in chemical reasoning, we present the MolErr2Fix benchmark, designed to assess LLMs on error detection and correction in molecular descriptions. Unlike existing benchmarks focused on molecule-to-text generation or property prediction, MolErr2Fix emphasizes fine-grained chemical understanding. It tasks LLMs with identifying, localizing, explaining, and revising potential structural and semantic errors in molecular descriptions. Specifically, MolErr2Fix consists of 1,193 fine-grained annotated error instances. Each instance contains quadruple annotations, i.e,. (error type, span location, the explanation, and the correction). These tasks are intended to reflect the types of reasoning and verification required in real-world chemical communication. Evaluations of current state-of-the-art LLMs reveal notable performance gaps, underscoring the need for more robust chemical reasoning capabilities. MolErr2Fix provides a focused benchmark for evaluating such capabilities and aims to support progress toward more reliable and chemically informed language models. All annotations and an accompanying evaluation API will be publicly released to facilitate future research.

As Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) become increasingly autonomous and complex, understanding their error modes is critical for ensuring their reliability and safety. However, research in this area has been severely hampered by the lack of large-scale, diverse datasets with precise, ground-truth error labels. To address this bottleneck, we introduce AEGIS, a novel framework for Automated Error Generation and Identification for Multi-Agent Systems. By systematically injecting controllable and traceable errors into initially successful trajectories, we create a rich dataset of realistic failures. This is achieved using a context-aware, LLM-based adaptive manipulator that performs sophisticated attacks like prompt injection and response corruption to induce specific, predefined error modes. We demonstrate the value of our dataset by exploring three distinct learning paradigms for the error identification task: Supervised Fine-Tuning, Reinforcement Learning, and Contrastive Learning. Our comprehensive experiments show that models trained on AEGIS data achieve substantial improvements across all three learning paradigms. Notably, several of our fine-tuned models demonstrate performance competitive with or superior to proprietary systems an order of magnitude larger, validating our automated data generation framework as a crucial resource for developing more robust and interpretable multi-agent systems. Our project website is available at https://kfq20.github.io/AEGIS-Website.

Multi-agent systems powered by large language models (LLMs) are transforming enterprise automation, yet systematic evaluation methodologies for assessing tool-use reliability remain underdeveloped. We introduce a comprehensive diagnostic framework that leverages big data analytics to evaluate procedural reliability in intelligent agent systems, addressing critical needs for SME-centric deployment in privacy-sensitive environments. Our approach features a 12-category error taxonomy capturing failure modes across tool initialization, parameter handling, execution, and result interpretation. Through systematic evaluation of 1,980 deterministic test instances spanning both open-weight models (Qwen2.5 series, Functionary) and proprietary alternatives (GPT-4, Claude 3.5/3.7) across diverse edge hardware configurations, we identify actionable reliability thresholds for production deployment. Our analysis reveals that procedural reliability, particularly tool initialization failures, constitutes the primary bottleneck for smaller models, while qwen2.5:32b achieves flawless performance matching GPT-4.1. The framework demonstrates that mid-sized models (qwen2.5:14b) offer practical accuracy-efficiency trade-offs on commodity hardware (96.6\% success rate, 7.3 s latency), enabling cost-effective intelligent agent deployment for resource-constrained organizations. This work establishes foundational infrastructure for systematic reliability evaluation of tool-augmented multi-agent AI systems.

Machine unlearning aims to remove the influence of specific training data from a model while preserving reliable behavior on the remaining data, making reliable prediction and uncertainty estimation essential for evaluation. Calibration is commonly used as a proxy for reliability in language models, but low calibration error does not necessarily imply reliable decision rules, as models may rely on spurious correlations while remaining well calibrated. We investigate this gap in generative language models using the multiple-choice question-answering evaluation protocol on the TOFU benchmark, measuring probabilistic reliability with calibration metrics (ECE, MCE, Brier) and decision-rule reliability via attribution-based shortcut detection with Integrated Gradients and Local Mutual Information. We find that fine-tuned models achieve low calibration error (ECE ~ 0.04) compared to pretrained models (ECE > 0.5), and models after unlearning retain similarly low calibration despite reduced accuracy on the forget split, while attribution analysis shows increased reliance on correlation-based tokens. These results demonstrate that good calibration can coexist with shortcut-based decision rules after unlearning, extending the reliability paradox to the machine unlearning setting.

Vision-language models~(VLMs) have shown remarkable advancements in multimodal reasoning tasks. However, they still often generate inaccurate or irrelevant responses due to issues like hallucinated image understandings or unrefined reasoning paths. To address these challenges, we introduce Critic-V, a novel framework inspired by the Actor-Critic paradigm to boost the reasoning capability of VLMs. This framework decouples the reasoning process and critic process by integrating two independent components: the Reasoner, which generates reasoning paths based on visual and textual inputs, and the Critic, which provides constructive critique to refine these paths. In this approach, the Reasoner generates reasoning responses according to text prompts, which can evolve iteratively as a policy based on feedback from the Critic. This interaction process was theoretically driven by a reinforcement learning framework where the Critic offers natural language critiques instead of scalar rewards, enabling more nuanced feedback to boost the Reasoner's capability on complex reasoning tasks. The Critic model is trained using Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), leveraging a preference dataset of critiques ranked by Rule-based Reward(RBR) to enhance its critic capabilities. Evaluation results show that the Critic-V framework significantly outperforms existing methods, including GPT-4V, on 5 out of 8 benchmarks, especially regarding reasoning accuracy and efficiency. Combining a dynamic text-based policy for the Reasoner and constructive feedback from the preference-optimized Critic enables a more reliable and context-sensitive multimodal reasoning process. Our approach provides a promising solution to enhance the reliability of VLMs, improving their performance in real-world reasoning-heavy multimodal applications such as autonomous driving and embodied intelligence.

As LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) are increasingly deployed for complex tasks, ensuring their reliability has become a pressing challenge. Since MAS coordinate through unstructured natural language rather than rigid protocols, they are prone to semantic failures (e.g., hallucinations, misinterpreted instructions, and reasoning drift) that propagate silently without raising runtime exceptions. Prevailing evaluation approaches, which measure only end-to-end task success, offer limited insight into how these failures arise or how effectively agents recover from them. To bridge this gap, we propose MAS-FIRE, a systematic framework for fault injection and reliability evaluation of MAS. We define a taxonomy of 15 fault types covering intra-agent cognitive errors and inter-agent coordination failures, and inject them via three non-invasive mechanisms: prompt modification, response rewriting, and message routing manipulation. Applying MAS-FIRE to three representative MAS architectures, we uncover a rich set of fault-tolerant behaviors that we organize into four tiers: mechanism, rule, prompt, and reasoning. This tiered view enables fine-grained diagnosis of where and why systems succeed or fail. Our findings reveal that stronger foundation models do not uniformly improve robustness. We further show that architectural topology plays an equally decisive role, with iterative, closed-loop designs neutralizing over 40% of faults that cause catastrophic collapse in linear workflows. MAS-FIRE provides the process-level observability and actionable guidance needed to systematically improve multi-agent systems.

The EPIC-KITCHENS-100 Action Detection challenge evaluates whether a model can localize the start and end of each action in long untrimmed egocentric videos and assign the corresponding verb--noun action label. In this report, we formulate our submission as EgoAction (Egocentric Action Composition with Reliability-Aware Temporal Fusion), a unified decoupled detection and fusion pipeline. The pipeline uses EPIC-finetuned VideoMAE-L features, trains separate noun and verb temporal detectors with causal temporal modeling, composes action hypotheses from top noun--verb pairs, and introduces a confidence-adaptive boundary fusion rule at post-processing time. The key observation is that verb and noun streams often fail differently: verb scores are sensitive to motion transitions, whereas noun scores are sensitive to hand-object visibility and object clutter. A fixed arithmetic mean of their predicted boundaries can therefore amplify localization errors when one stream degenerates. We replace this hard-coded mean with Dynamic Weighted Fusion (DWF), which normalizes the maximum noun and verb classification confidences into proposal-wise boundary weights and linearly combines the two intervals. This lightweight tensor-only operator shifts boundary authority toward the more reliable stream while preserving the decoupled action scoring mechanism. Together with sliding-window inference, top-K noun--verb action composition, and class-wise Soft-NMS, EgoAction provides a compact and reproducible system for egocentric temporal action detection.

Large language models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate due to misaligned self-awareness, generating erroneous outputs when addressing queries beyond their knowledge boundaries. While existing approaches mitigate hallucinations via uncertainty estimation or query rejection, they suffer from computational inefficiency or sacrificed helpfulness. To address these issues, we propose the Explicit Knowledge Boundary Modeling (EKBM) framework, integrating fast and slow reasoning systems to harmonize reliability and usability. The framework first employs a fast-thinking model to generate confidence-labeled responses, enabling immediate use of high-confidence outputs. For uncertain predictions, a slow refinement model conducts targeted reasoning to improve accuracy. To align model behavior with our proposed object, we propose a hybrid training pipeline, enhancing self-awareness without degrading task performance. Evaluations on dialogue state tracking tasks demonstrate that EKBM achieves superior model reliability over uncertainty-based baselines. Further analysis reveals that refinement substantially boosts accuracy while maintaining low computational overhead. Our work establishes a scalable paradigm for advancing LLM reliability and balancing accuracy and practical utility in error-sensitive applications.

Process Reward Models (PRMs) provide step-level feedback for reasoning, but current PRMs usually output only a single reward score for each step. Downstream methods must therefore treat imperfect step-level reward predictions as reliable decision signals, with no indication of when these predictions should be trusted. We propose BetaPRM, a distributional PRM that predicts both a step-level success probability and the reliability of that prediction. Given step-success supervision from Monte Carlo continuations, BetaPRM learns a Beta belief that explains the observed number of successful continuations through a Beta-Binomial likelihood, rather than regressing to the finite-sample success ratio as a point target. This learned reliability signal indicates when a step reward should be trusted, enabling downstream applications to distinguish reliable rewards from uncertain ones. As one application, we introduce Adaptive Computation Allocation (ACA) for PRM-guided Best-of-N reasoning. ACA uses the learned reliability signal to stop when a high-reward solution is reliable and to spend additional computation on uncertain candidate prefixes. Experiments across four backbones and four reasoning benchmarks show that BetaPRM improves PRM-guided Best-of-N selection while preserving standard step-level error detection. Built on this signal, ACA improves the accuracy--token tradeoff over fixed-budget Best-of-16, reducing token usage by up to 33.57% while improving final-answer accuracy.

Multi-step enterprise agent tasks fail in a characteristic way: single-pass inference has no checkpoint between deciding an answer and committing to it. We study one production system (Leni) whose architecture installs such checkpoints: verification loops (execute, observe, compare, correct) staffed by lightweight task-specialized post-trained models. We evaluate the unmodified production configuration on three public benchmarks stressing distinct failure modes: SpreadsheetBench Verified (silent computation error), BullshitBench v2 (premise confabulation), and the GAIA validation split (cascade error over long tool chains). The full system improves over its frontier base model by +11.0 percentage points on SpreadsheetBench (91.25% vs 80.25%, n=400, p<0.001), +7 to +10 percentage points on BullshitBench (98% vs 91%, n=100), and roughly +15 points on GAIA validation (75.2% pass@1, n=165; 83.0% best-of-k). Our central contribution is a decomposition of that uplift: most of it comes from scaffolding, routing, and specialist models rather than from the verification step itself, whose isolated contribution is small (+1.5 points) but concentrated at the top of the score distribution, where it converts otherwise-failing tasks. We instrument the loop end-to-end, yielding an empirical verifier confusion matrix (catch rate about 0.20, fix rate 0.75, no false-alarm regressions) that grounds a compounding-reliability model. Specialist-swap ablations suggest that the loop's value depends on who observes it: replacing the small trained verifier with the generating frontier model eliminates most rescues. A valid-premise control shows zero over-rejections in 100 expert-level questions.

This study explores Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous agents for real-world tasks, including freelance software development. This work presents a new benchmark that evaluates LLMs on freelance programming and data analysis tasks derived from economic data. We construct the benchmark using synthetic tasks created from a Kaggle Freelancer dataset of job postings, with all job prices standardized to USD (median fixed-project price around 250, and an average of 306). Each task is accompanied by structured input-output test cases and an estimated price tag, enabling automated correctness checking and a monetary performance valuation. This approach is inspired by OpenAI's recent SWE-Lancer benchmark (1,400 real Upwork tasks worth 1M total). Still, our framework simplifies evaluation using programmatically testable tasks and predicted price values, making it highly scalable and repeatable. On this benchmark, we evaluate four modern LLMs - Claude 3.5 Haiku, GPT-4o-mini, Qwen 2.5, and Mistral. We report each model's accuracy (task success rate and test-case pass rate) and the total "freelance earnings" it achieves (sum of prices of solved tasks). Our results show that Claude 3.5 Haiku performs best, earning approximately 1.52 million USD, followed closely by GPT-4o-mini at 1.49 million, then Qwen 2.5 (1.33M) and Mistral ($0.70M). We analyze the distribution of errors per task and observe that the strongest models solve the most tasks and rarely fail completely on any project. We discuss the implications of these results for the feasibility of AI as a freelance developer, the advantages and limitations of our automated benchmark approach, and the gap between performance on structured tasks versus the true complexity of real-world freelance jobs.

Serial verification gates are a core reliability primitive in LLM harnesses: a candidate answer is returned only if k verifier calls all accept it. Under conditionally independent gates, the recent Odds Law (arXiv:2606.15712) shows that posterior log-odds grow linearly in k, so failure decays exponentially, and states that "a tight theory of partially correlated verifier cascades remains open." This note gives a minimal such theory. Modeling the per-instance false-accept rate on the generator's own errors as a latent variable αsim G (de Finetti), the exact cascade posterior is ell_k = ell_0 - ln m_k, with m_k the k-th moment of G. Then: (i) ell_k is concave in k for every non-degenerate G -- the Odds Law is its tangent at the first gate and an upper bound; (ii) for Beta(a,b) latents, failure decays polynomially, 1-r_k asymp k^{-b}, with correlation parameter ρ_v = 1/(a+b+1); (iii) a blind-spot atom of mass 1-π at α=1 caps the evidence extractable from any number of gates at -ln(1-π) nats, so reliability saturates below 1; (iv) letting the true-accept rate also vary (βsim H) yields a trichotomy -- gates eventually always help, plateau, or actively harm -- decided by the upper-tail exponents of G and H, with closed-form crossover k^dagger. The mechanism is survivorship: errors surviving gates are the high-α ones. The theory is measurable: R repeated verdicts per instance identify the first R moments of G, so two verdicts identify ρ_v; beta-binomial likelihood and NPMLE recover the reliability curve and the ill-posed ceiling. In synthetic tests, independence-based extrapolation underestimates failure by 20x at k=5 and ~3000x at k=10; the correlated fit at R=8 tracks held-out depths. The practical lever is decorrelation -- changing model family, modality, or evidence source -- not adding gates.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

As a medium for cold data storage, DNA stands out as it promises significant gains in storage capacity and lifetime. However, it comes with its own data processing challenges to overcome. Constrained codes over the DNA alphabet {A,T,G,C} have been used to design DNA sequences that are free of long homopolymers to increase stability, yet effective error detection and error correction are required to achieve reliability in data retrieval. Recently, we introduced lexicographically-ordered constrained (LOCO) codes, namely DNA LOCO (D-LOCO) codes, with error detection. In this paper, we equip our D-LOCO codes with error correction for substitution errors via syndrome-like decoding, designated as residue decoding. We only use D-LOCO codewords of indices divisible by a suitable redundancy metric R(m) > 0, where m is the code length, for error correction. We provide the community with a construction of constrained codes forbidding runs of length higher than fixed ell in {1,2,3} and GC-content in big [0.5-1{2K},0.5+1{2K}big ] that correct K segmented substitution errors, one per codeword. We call the proposed codes error-correction (EC) D-LOCO codes. We also give a list-decoding procedure with near-quadratic time-complexity in m to correct double-substitution errors within EC D-LOCO codewords, which has > 98.20% average success rate. The redundancy metric is projected to require 2log_2(m)+O(1)-bit allocation for a length-m codeword. Hence, our EC D-LOCO codes are projected to be capacity-approaching with respect to the error-free constrained system.

In recent years, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have been extensively utilized for multimodal reasoning tasks, including Graphical User Interface (GUI) automation. Unlike general offline multimodal tasks, GUI automation is executed in online interactive environments, necessitating step-by-step decision-making based on real-time status of the environment. This task has a lower tolerance for decision-making errors at each step, as any mistakes may cumulatively disrupt the process and potentially lead to irreversible outcomes like deletions or payments. To address these issues, we introduce a pre-operative critic mechanism that provides effective feedback prior to the actual execution, by reasoning about the potential outcome and correctness of actions. Specifically, we propose a Suggestion-aware Gradient Relative Policy Optimization (S-GRPO) strategy to construct our pre-operative critic model GUI-Critic-R1, incorporating a novel suggestion reward to enhance the reliability of the model's feedback. Furthermore, we develop a reasoning-bootstrapping based data collection pipeline to create a GUI-Critic-Train and a GUI-Critic-Test, filling existing gaps in GUI critic data. Static experiments on the GUI-Critic-Test across both mobile and web domains reveal that our GUI-Critic-R1 offers significant advantages in critic accuracy compared to current MLLMs. Dynamic evaluation on GUI automation benchmark further highlights the effectiveness and superiority of our model, as evidenced by improved success rates and operational efficiency.

Error detection (ED), which aims to identify incorrect or inconsistent cell values in tabular data, is important for ensuring data quality. Recent state-of-the-art ED methods leverage the pre-trained knowledge and semantic capability embedded in large language models (LLMs) to directly label whether a cell is erroneous. However, this LLM-as-a-labeler pipeline (1) relies on the black box, implicit decision process, thus failing to provide explainability for the detection results, and (2) is highly sensitive to prompts, yielding inconsistent outputs due to inherent model stochasticity, therefore lacking robustness. To address these limitations, we propose an LLM-as-an-inducer framework that adopts LLM to induce the decision tree for ED (termed TreeED) and further ensembles multiple such trees for consensus detection (termed ForestED), thereby improving explainability and robustness. Specifically, based on prompts derived from data context, decision tree specifications and output requirements, TreeED queries the LLM to induce the decision tree skeleton, whose root-to-leaf decision paths specify the stepwise procedure for evaluating a given sample. Each tree contains three types of nodes: (1) rule nodes that perform simple validation checks (e.g., format or range), (2) Graph Neural Network (GNN) nodes that capture complex patterns (e.g., functional dependencies), and (3) leaf nodes that output the final decision types (error or clean). Furthermore, ForestED employs uncertainty-based sampling to obtain multiple row subsets, constructing a decision tree for each subset using TreeED. It then leverages an Expectation-Maximization-based algorithm that jointly estimates tree reliability and optimizes the consensus ED prediction. Extensive xperiments demonstrate that our methods are accurate, explainable and robust, achieving an average F1-score improvement of 16.1% over the best baseline.

This paper proposes a new metric to measure the calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers, called test-based calibration error (TCE). TCE incorporates a novel loss function based on a statistical test to examine the extent to which model predictions differ from probabilities estimated from data. It offers (i) a clear interpretation, (ii) a consistent scale that is unaffected by class imbalance, and (iii) an enhanced visual representation with repect to the standard reliability diagram. In addition, we introduce an optimality criterion for the binning procedure of calibration error metrics based on a minimal estimation error of the empirical probabilities. We provide a novel computational algorithm for optimal bins under bin-size constraints. We demonstrate properties of TCE through a range of experiments, including multiple real-world imbalanced datasets and ImageNet 1000.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into legal drafting and research workflows, where incorrect citations or fabricated precedents can cause serious professional harm. Existing legal benchmarks largely emphasize statutory reasoning, contract understanding, or general legal question answering, but they do not directly study a central common-law failure mode: when asked to provide case authorities without external grounding, models may return plausible-looking but incorrect citations or cases. We introduce LegalCiteBench, a benchmark for studying closed-book citation recovery, citation verification, and case matching in legal language models. LegalCiteBench contains approximately 24K evaluation instances constructed from 1,000 real U.S. judicial opinions from the Case Law Access Project. The benchmark covers five citation-centric tasks: citation retrieval, citation completion, citation error detection, case matching, and case verification and correction. Across 21 LLMs, exact citation recovery remains highly challenging in this closed-book setting: even the strongest models score below 7/100 on citation retrieval and completion. Within the evaluated models, scale and legal-domain pretraining provide limited gains and do not resolve this difficulty. Models also frequently provide concrete but incorrect or low-overlap authorities under our evaluation protocol, with Misleading Answer Rates (MAR) exceeding 94% for 20 of 21 evaluated models on retrieval-heavy tasks. A prompt-only abstention experiment shows that explicit uncertainty instructions reduce some confident fabrication but do not improve citation correctness. LegalCiteBench is intended as a diagnostic framework for studying authority generation failures, verification behavior, and abstention when external grounding is absent, incomplete, or bypassed.

Emotion preference learning uses pairwise comparisons between candidate descriptions to align multimodal large language models (MLLMs) with human judgments of open-ended emotion descriptions and to train reward models that capture human emotional preferences. However, conventional pairwise supervision is often sparse, typically providing only a single negative description for each positive description, and therefore offers limited coverage of the diverse ways in which an emotion description can be incorrect. In particular, models may be insufficiently exposed to semantically fluent but emotionally inconsistent descriptions. Beyond this data-level limitation, relying on a single MLLM judge introduces a distinct model-level concern: its judgments can be affected by model-specific biases when interpreting fine-grained or ambiguous multimodal emotional cues. To address these limitations, we propose Error-Augmented Preference Optimization (EAPO), a framework for improving the reliability of MLLM-based emotion preference judgment at both the data and model levels. First, we construct an error-augmented dataset by generating multiple controlled and emotion-aware negative descriptions from each preferred description. We then adapt multiple independent MLLM judges to this richer supervision and aggregate their preference margins using margin-calibrated soft fusion, which maps heterogeneous margins to a common scale before aggregation. Experiments on the MER2026-EmoPrefer Challenge dataset and our error-augmented dataset demonstrate that EAPO improves emotion preference prediction and enhances the robustness of MLLM judges when evaluating fluent descriptions that conflict with the video's multimodal emotional evidence. Our code is available at https://github.com/slash1028/EAPO-EmoPrefer.

Autonomous agents increasingly perform bounded software tasks under an orchestrator that retries, resumes, and budgets them. The machinery such orchestrators reach for is the service mesh's: retry, timeout, and error-rate circuit breaking. We report a failure study of a production agentic software-delivery platform over 147 numbered incidents spanning 81 runs, each with a measured cost and, in most cases, a mutation proof reproducing the failure. All three assumptions those primitives rest on are violated in practice, and we quantify the consequences: a loop of fifty-four consecutive successful tool calls no error-rate breaker could see; a progress signal constant by construction, guaranteeing a false trip on the third repair round and driving one run from six of six components to three; twenty-one events accumulated across six invocations of one delegation, making a correct, idempotent component unwinnable; a misrouted failure that woke five components for a two-component fault, leaving three bystanders regressing working code; and twelve incidents in which the enforcement layer blocked correct work, the most expensive costing 107 agent turns and zero accepted writes. We find one cross-cutting cause and its dual. Identity adequacy: in five separate subsystems an identity that failed to discriminate produced a confident wrong answer, and two of them derived the corrective rule independently. Evidence adequacy: a reliability decision may be taken only on evidence capable of moving, attributable to what it measures, and deterministic under identical conditions. From the findings we derive seven reliability primitives whose enforcement unit is the delegation rather than the message, and specify the controlled evaluation the study motivates but does not constitute.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Recently, the large language models (LLMs) have shown extraordinary ability in understanding natural language and generating programming code. It has been a common practice of software engineers to consult LLMs when encountering coding questions. Although efforts have been made to avoid syntax errors and align the code with the intended semantics, the reliability and robustness of the code generationfrom LLMs have not yet been thoroughly studied. The executable code is not equivalent to the reliable and robust code, especially in the context of real-world software development. The misuse of APIs in the generated code could lead to severe problem, such as resource leaks, program crashes. To make things worse, the users of LLM code generation services are actually the developers that are most vulnerable to these code that seems right -- They are always novice developers that are not familiar with the APIs that LLMs generate code for them. Therefore, they could hardly tell the misuse in the code generated by LLMs, which further facilitates the incorrect code applied in real-world software. Existing code evaluation benchmark and datasets focus on crafting small tasks such as programming questions in coding interviews, which however deviates from the problem that developers would ask LLM for real-world coding help. To fill the missing piece, in this work, we propose a dataset RobustAPI for evaluating the reliability and robustness of code generated by LLMs. We collect 1208 coding questions from StackOverflow on 24 representative Java APIs. We summarize thecommon misuse patterns of these APIs and evaluate them oncurrent popular LLMs. The evaluation results show that evenfor GPT-4, 62% of the generated code contains API misuses,which would cause unexpected consequences if the code isintroduced into real-world software.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in multimodal tasks but are prone to misinterpreting visual inputs, often resulting in hallucinations and unreliable outputs. To address these challenges, we propose Dropout Decoding, a novel inference-time approach that quantifies the uncertainty of visual tokens and selectively masks uncertain tokens to improve decoding. Our method measures the uncertainty of each visual token by projecting it onto the text space and decomposing it into aleatoric and epistemic components. Specifically, we focus on epistemic uncertainty, which captures perception-related errors more effectively. Inspired by dropout regularization, we introduce uncertainty-guided token dropout, which applies the dropout principle to input visual tokens instead of model parameters, and during inference rather than training. By aggregating predictions from an ensemble of masked decoding contexts, Dropout Decoding robustly mitigates errors arising from visual token misinterpretations. Evaluations on benchmarks including CHAIR, THRONE, and MMBench demonstrate that Dropout Decoding significantly reduces object hallucinations (OH) and enhances both reliability and quality of LVLM outputs across diverse visual contexts.

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

Multilingual large language models often struggle to reason in low- to mid-resource languages. Prior work has shown that translation can improve multilingual reasoning by helping models access stronger English-centric representations. This raises a central question: How much translation is needed for multilingual large language models to reason reliably, and when does more translation instead trigger interference and overconfidence? Using LLaMA and Qwen models, we run extensive experiments varying text scope and language mode (target-only, English-only, bilingual) to evaluate both accuracy and reliability. Our results reveal a clear trade-off: English context often improve understanding and recover errors caused by non-English comprehension, yet adding redundant bilingual context intensifies interference. We address this trade-off with Reliability-Aware Adaptive Inference (RAAI), a training-free test-time framework that (i) performs Expected Calibration Error (ECE)-aware routing and prompt fusion, and (ii) uses a mid-layer Risk Index (RI) to gate sequential reasoning, allocating compute only when it is likely to help and suppressing harmful bilingual redundancy. Across two model families, RAAI enhances accuracy by 25-37.7% on low-resource languages and lowers calibration error by approximately 3-6%, with the most pronounced benefits in the lowest-resource language tiers.

Text-to-SQL enables users to interact with databases using natural language, simplifying the retrieval and synthesis of information. Despite the remarkable success of large language models (LLMs) in translating natural language questions into SQL queries, widespread deployment remains limited due to two primary challenges. First, the effective use of text-to-SQL models depends on users' understanding of the model's capabilities-the scope of questions the model can correctly answer. Second, the absence of abstention mechanisms can lead to incorrect SQL generation going unnoticed, thereby undermining trust in the model's output. To enable wider deployment, it is crucial to address these challenges in model design and enhance model evaluation to build trust in the model's output. To this end, we introduce TrustSQL, a novel comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate text-to-SQL reliability-defined as a model's ability to correctly handle any type of input question by generating correct SQL queries for feasible questions and abstaining from generating infeasible ones (e.g., due to schema incompatibility or functionalities beyond SQL). We evaluate existing methods using a novel penalty-based scoring metric with two modeling approaches: (1) pipeline-based methods combining SQL generators with infeasible question detectors and SQL error detectors for abstention; and (2) unified methods using a single model for the entire task. Our experimental results reveal that achieving high scores under severe penalties requires significant effort and provide a new perspective on developing text-to-SQL models for safer deployment. TrustSQL is available at https://github.com/glee4810/TrustSQL.

AI agents are increasingly deployed to execute important tasks. While rising accuracy scores on standard benchmarks suggest rapid progress, many agents still continue to fail in practice. This discrepancy highlights a fundamental limitation of current evaluations: compressing agent behavior into a single success metric obscures critical operational flaws. Notably, it ignores whether agents behave consistently across runs, withstand perturbations, fail predictably, or have bounded error severity. Grounded in safety-critical engineering, we provide a holistic performance profile by proposing twelve concrete metrics that decompose agent reliability along four key dimensions: consistency, robustness, predictability, and safety. Evaluating 14 agentic models across two complementary benchmarks, we find that recent capability gains have only yielded small improvements in reliability. By exposing these persistent limitations, our metrics complement traditional evaluations while offering tools for reasoning about how agents perform, degrade, and fail.

Deep-research agents solve tasks through long trajectories of search, tool use, evidence inspection, and answer synthesis. Evaluation based on final answers shows whether an agent succeeds, but not which parts of the trajectory make the answer unreliable. We study span-level error localization for deep-research agents. We collect 2,790 real trajectories from two agent frameworks, three backbone models, and three benchmarks, convert raw logs into semantic spans, and annotate harmful error spans through LLM-assisted expert review. From these annotations, we build TELBench, a 1,000-instance benchmark for identifying error spans among normal exploration, failed searches, tentative hypotheses, and harmless noise. We further propose DRIFT, a claim-centric auditing framework that tracks agent claims, checks their support in trajectory evidence, and marks spans where unsupported or conflicting claims affect the answer path. Experiments across model families and auditing frameworks show that DRIFT improves span-level error localization and first-error accuracy by up to 30 percentage points. Our work provides a process-level view of reliability in deep-research agents.

Accurate protein-ligand binding affinity prediction is central to computational drug discovery, yet modern docking engines frequently disagree without indicating which prediction to trust. Consensus scoring and ensemble methods improve mean accuracy but treat all predictions identically without interpretable confidence measures or uncertainty decomposition, ignoring the chemical context of each protein-ligand pair. To address this limitation, we introduce RELIABLE-BA (RELIABiLity-aware Evidential fusion for Binding Affinity), an evidential framework for multi-engine binding affinity prediction. Our model comprises three steps: (1) modeling each engine as an evidential expert via Normal-Inverse-Gamma distributions, (2) scaling epistemic uncertainty through learned reliability from molecular context while preserving each expert's predictive mean, and (3) fusing experts through closed-form aggregation that captures both individual uncertainty and inter-engine disagreement. Experiments on the PDBBind and BDB2020+ benchmarks demonstrate competitive point prediction with substantially improved uncertainty calibration, and additional validation on the SARS-CoV-2 Mpro dataset and 5HT2A receptor demonstrates applicability to clinically relevant drug targets. Crucially, these uncertainty estimates enable reliable filtering of protein-ligand pairs, reducing prediction error by up to 25% when retaining only high-confidence pairs. To our knowledge, RELIABLE-BA is the first multi-engine binding affinity prediction framework to combine evidential fusion with context-dependent reliability, offering a principled path toward trustworthy AI-guided drug discovery. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yongchand/RELIABLE-BA.

Agentic retrieval-augmented reasoning pipelines are increasingly used to structure how large language models (LLMs) incorporate external evidence in clinical decision support. These systems iteratively retrieve curated domain knowledge and synthesize it into structured reports before answer selection. Although such pipelines can improve performance, their impact on reliability under model variability remains unclear. In real-world deployment, heterogeneous models may align, diverge, or synchronize errors in ways not captured by accuracy. We evaluated 34 LLMs on 169 expert-curated publicly available radiology questions, comparing zero-shot inference with a radiology-specific multi-step agentic retrieval condition in which all models received identical structured evidence reports derived from curated radiology knowledge. Agentic inference reduced inter-model decision dispersion (median entropy 0.48 vs. 0.13) and increased robustness of correctness across models (mean 0.74 vs. 0.81). Majority consensus also increased overall (P<0.001). Consensus strength and robust correctness remained correlated under both strategies (ho=0.88 for zero-shot; ho=0.87 for agentic), although high agreement did not guarantee correctness. Response verbosity showed no meaningful association with correctness. Among 572 incorrect outputs, 72% were associated with moderate or high clinically assessed severity, although inter-rater agreement was low (appa=0.02). Agentic retrieval therefore was associated with more concentrated decision distributions, stronger consensus, and higher cross-model robustness of correctness. These findings suggest that evaluating agentic systems through accuracy or agreement alone may not always be sufficient, and that complementary analyses of stability, cross-model robustness, and potential clinical impact are needed to characterize reliability under model variability.

While large language models (LLMs) perform well on table tasks, they still make data referencing errors (DREs), i.e., incorrectly citing or omitting table values, despite understanding the table structure. Beyond final-answer accuracy, DREs directly compromise the correctness and reliability of intermediate reasoning steps. Yet prior studies have only offered limited, small-scale analyses. In this work, we present the first systematic evaluation of tabular data referencing errors across different models and tasks. Our results show that DREs occur across all tested models (1.7B to 20B parameters). Furthermore, we demonstrate that incorporating data referencing as a critic significantly improves answer accuracy up to 12.0%, through critic-based filtering and rejection sampling. Finally, we trained a lightweight 4B-parameter critic model that achieves an average F1 score of 78.2% in detecting both in-distribution and out-of-distribution DREs, and effectively assists inference for larger models.

Reliable pelvic bone segmentation (PBS) from CT is essential for robot-assisted pelvic trauma surgery, yet deploying a source-trained model to a new hospital suffers from severe performance degradation due to cross-center domain shifts. While test-time adaptation (TTA) enables online model adaptation without accessing source data, existing methods show limited effectiveness for PBS, facing challenges including boundary degradation, anatomical inconsistency under domain shifts, and voxel-level class imbalance. To address these challenges, we propose a novel closed-loop dynamic Reliability-Guided TTA framework (ReGA) for PBS. Specifically, we introduce a pseudo-label reliability criterion termed Segmentation Inference Consistency Evaluation (SICE), which jointly measures region overlap and boundary deviation via dropout-based ensemble predictions. Based on SICE, a trust-weighted refinement module adaptively updates features to mitigate boundary errors in pseudo-labels. Furthermore, a confidence-weighted region-level contrastive learning strategy is proposed to enforce anatomical consistency. Finally, ReGA follows the teacher-student (TS) scheme to alleviate voxel-level class imbalance. Experiments on three heterogeneous 3D pelvic CT datasets demonstrate that ReGA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art TTA methods, enabling effective adaptation of the source-trained PBS model to unseen clinical domains. The code is available at https://github.com/Ren-ling/ReGA.

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently confabulate scientific facts, severely undermining their trustworthiness. Addressing this challenge requires benchmarks that go beyond binary factuality and enable fine-grained evaluation. We introduce ReFACT (Reddit False And Correct Texts), a benchmark of 1,001 expert-annotated question-answer pairs spanning diverse scientific domains for the detection of scientific confabulation. Each instance includes both a scientifically correct answer and a non-factual counterpart annotated with precise error spans and error types. ReFACT enables multi-stage evaluation: (1) confabulation detection, (2) fine-grained error localization, and (3) correction. We benchmark 9 state-of-the-art LLMs, revealing limited performance (about 50 percent accuracy). Even top models such as GPT-4o fail to distinguish factual from confabulated scientific answers, raising concerns about the reliability of LLM-as-judge evaluation paradigms. Our findings highlight the need for fine-grained, human-validated benchmarks to detect and correct scientific confabulation in domain-specific contexts. The dataset is available at: https://github.com/ddz5431/ReFACT

LLM judges are used to reduce the need for costly human labor in evaluating open-ended text generation. However, the reliability of these judges depends critically on their alignment with human raters -- a property that itself depends on costly human annotations. In this work, we develop a method (Metric Match) for estimating correlation-based reliability metrics of LLM judges from limited annotations. Metric Match selects a subset of samples for human annotation such that the subset matches the population reliability metric with respect to acquired synthetic labels. We empirically show that Metric Match achieves a win-rate of 0.838 against random subset selection across four different correlation metrics and 15 datasets, with an 18.7% decrease in average estimation error and reduces annotation needs by 32.5%. We provide a cost model and highlight a medical case study where our method saves $1,041.67 compared to random selection for expert annotation. Further, we shift our task from reliability estimation to reliability classification of whether a given judge is above a deployment threshold, outperforming random selection with Metric Match. All project code is publicly available, and we additionally provide an installable package for ease of use.

Inferring atmospheric properties of exoplanets from observed spectra is key to understanding their formation, evolution, and habitability. Since traditional Bayesian approaches to atmospheric retrieval (e.g., nested sampling) are computationally expensive, a growing number of machine learning (ML) methods such as neural posterior estimation (NPE) have been proposed. We seek to make ML-based atmospheric retrieval (1) more reliable and accurate with verified results, and (2) more flexible with respect to the underlying neural networks and the choice of the assumed noise models. First, we adopt flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) as a new ML approach to atmospheric retrieval. FMPE maintains many advantages of NPE, but provides greater architectural flexibility and scalability. Second, we use importance sampling (IS) to verify and correct ML results, and to compute an estimate of the Bayesian evidence. Third, we condition our ML models on the assumed noise level of a spectrum (i.e., error bars), thus making them adaptable to different noise models. Both our noise level-conditional FMPE and NPE models perform on par with nested sampling across a range of noise levels when tested on simulated data. FMPE trains about 3 times faster than NPE and yields higher IS efficiencies. IS successfully corrects inaccurate ML results, identifies model failures via low efficiencies, and provides accurate estimates of the Bayesian evidence. FMPE is a powerful alternative to NPE for fast, amortized, and parallelizable atmospheric retrieval. IS can verify results, thus helping to build confidence in ML-based approaches, while also facilitating model comparison via the evidence ratio. Noise level conditioning allows design studies for future instruments to be scaled up, for example, in terms of the range of signal-to-noise ratios.

Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems are pivotal in transcribing speech into text, yet the errors they introduce can significantly degrade the performance of downstream tasks like summarization. This issue is particularly pronounced in clinical dialogue summarization, a low-resource domain where supervised data for fine-tuning is scarce, necessitating the use of ASR models as black-box solutions. Employing conventional data augmentation for enhancing the noise robustness of summarization models is not feasible either due to the unavailability of sufficient medical dialogue audio recordings and corresponding ASR transcripts. To address this challenge, we propose MEDSAGE, an approach for generating synthetic samples for data augmentation using Large Language Models (LLMs). Specifically, we leverage the in-context learning capabilities of LLMs and instruct them to generate ASR-like errors based on a few available medical dialogue examples with audio recordings. Experimental results show that LLMs can effectively model ASR noise, and incorporating this noisy data into the training process significantly improves the robustness and accuracy of medical dialogue summarization systems. This approach addresses the challenges of noisy ASR outputs in critical applications, offering a robust solution to enhance the reliability of clinical dialogue summarization.

LLM-as-a-judge panels aggregate votes from multiple models, with the expectation that diverse models yield more reliable evaluations. We develop a framework to measure the true informational value of such panels and quantify how far their reliability falls short of the independent-voting ideal. Testing a panel of 9 frontier LLMs from 7 model families on three natural language inference datasets (each with 100 human annotations per item), we find that the 9 judges effectively provide only about 2 independent votes' worth of information. Roughly three-quarters of the panel's nominal independence is lost because the models make the same mistakes on the same items. The consequences are stark: the panel's actual accuracy falls 8-22 percentage points short of what independent voting would achieve, and the best single judge matches or outperforms the full panel across all conditions. Neither adding more judges nor using smarter aggregation algorithms helps -- established methods close at most 11% of this gap, even with access to the correct answers. We quantify these findings using the Kish effective sample size (n_eff) and a Condorcet null model, and show the deficit is robust across prompt variants, temperatures, chain-of-thought reasoning, and a pairwise preference task (RewardBench). The bottleneck is correlated judges, not the aggregation algorithm, implying that scaling up panels cannot substitute for genuinely independent evaluation.

Inference cascades cut cost by answering most queries with a cheap model and escalating a hard tail to a frontier model that acts as verifier. A natural extension closes the loop: fine-tune the cheap student on the verifier's rejections so the escalation rate, and cost, fall each round. We measure this loop on real LLMs and report four findings. First, the verifier's blind spot, the fraction of the student's wrong answers it accepts, is large and moves adversarially: it grows with student capability (β from 0.12 to 0.55 as the student scales 0.5B to 32B) and shrinks with verifier capability, so it is worst in the cheap-student, cheap-verifier regime cascades exist to create. Second, buying it away returns the saving: a frontier verifier drives β to about 0.05 but then escalates on 46% of hard-MATH queries against a 39% true error rate, paying the frontier price on nearly half of all traffic. Third, naive corrective fine-tuning on the verifier-rejected tail does not improve the small student but degrades and ultimately collapses it, across every teacher we tried (cross-family and same-family), so at this scale the self-improving loop is self-defeating. Fourth, through all of this the cascade's own dashboard, every metric computed through the verifier, reads a flat 3% error while true delivered error swings up to 32%: the system is blind to its own degradation by construction. We then give the theory that explains the blindness, a two-population conservation law, ε_infty lesssim q_0 β_0, under which every in-loop metric improves while true quality does not, and a synthetic study that validates the mechanism. The practical conclusion: the reliability of a self-improving cascade cannot be read from any metric computed through its own verifier.

Recent advancements in large vision-language models (LVLMs) have led to significant progress in generating natural language descriptions for visual content and thus enhancing various applications. One issue with these powerful models is that they sometimes produce texts that are factually inconsistent with the visual input. While there has been some effort to mitigate such inconsistencies in natural image captioning, the factuality of generated captions for structured document images, such as charts, has not received as much scrutiny, posing a potential threat to information reliability in critical applications. This work delves into the factuality aspect by introducing a comprehensive typology of factual errors in generated chart captions. A large-scale human annotation effort provides insight into the error patterns and frequencies in captions crafted by various chart captioning models, ultimately forming the foundation of a novel dataset, CHOCOLATE. Our analysis reveals that even state-of-the-art models, including GPT-4V, frequently produce captions laced with factual inaccuracies. In response to this challenge, we establish the new task of Chart Caption Factual Error Correction and introduce CHARTVE, a model for visual entailment that outperforms proprietary and open-source LVLMs in evaluating factual consistency. Furthermore, we propose C2TFEC, an interpretable two-stage framework that excels at correcting factual errors. This work inaugurates a new domain in factual error correction for chart captions, presenting a novel evaluation mechanism, and demonstrating an effective approach to ensuring the factuality of generated chart captions.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Despite significant strides in factual reliability, errors -- often termed hallucinations -- remain a major concern for generative AI, especially as LLMs are increasingly expected to be helpful in more complex or nuanced setups. Yet even in the simplest setting -- factoid question-answering with clear ground truth-frontier models without external tools continue to hallucinate. We argue that most factuality gains in this domain have come from expanding the model's knowledge boundary (encoding more facts) rather than improving awareness of that boundary (distinguishing known from unknown). We conjecture that the latter is inherently difficult: models may lack the discriminative power to perfectly separate truths from errors, creating an unavoidable tradeoff between eliminating hallucinations and preserving utility. This tradeoff dissolves under a different framing. If we understand hallucinations as confident errors -- incorrect information delivered without appropriate qualification -- a third path emerges beyond the answer-or-abstain dichotomy: expressing uncertainty. We propose faithful uncertainty: aligning linguistic uncertainty with intrinsic uncertainty. This is one facet of metacognition -- the ability to be aware of one's own uncertainty and to act on it. For direct interaction, acting on uncertainty means communicating it honestly; for agentic systems, it becomes the control layer governing when to search and what to trust. Metacognition is thus essential for LLMs to be both trustworthy and capable; we conclude by highlighting open problems for progress towards this objective.

Data errors, corruptions, and poisoning attacks during training pose a major threat to the reliability of modern AI systems. While extensive effort has gone into empirical mitigations, the evolving nature of attacks and the complexity of data require a more principled, provable approach to robustly learn on such data - and to understand how perturbations influence the final model. Hence, we introduce MIBP-Cert, a novel certification method based on mixed-integer bilinear programming (MIBP) that computes sound, deterministic bounds to provide provable robustness even under complex threat models. By computing the set of parameters reachable through perturbed or manipulated data, we can predict all possible outcomes and guarantee robustness. To make solving this optimization problem tractable, we propose a novel relaxation scheme that bounds each training step without sacrificing soundness. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach to continuous and discrete data, as well as different threat models - including complex ones that were previously out of reach.

Evaluating the step-by-step reliability of large language model (LLM) reasoning, such as Chain-of-Thought, remains challenging due to the difficulty and cost of obtaining high-quality step-level supervision. In this paper, we introduce Self-Play Critic (SPC), a novel approach where a critic model evolves its ability to assess reasoning steps through adversarial self-play games, eliminating the need for manual step-level annotation. SPC involves fine-tuning two copies of a base model to play two roles, namely a "sneaky generator" that deliberately produces erroneous steps designed to be difficult to detect, and a "critic" that analyzes the correctness of reasoning steps. These two models engage in an adversarial game in which the generator aims to fool the critic, while the critic model seeks to identify the generator's errors. Using reinforcement learning based on the game outcomes, the models iteratively improve; the winner of each confrontation receives a positive reward and the loser receives a negative reward, driving continuous self-evolution. Experiments on three reasoning process benchmarks (ProcessBench, PRM800K, DeltaBench) demonstrate that our SPC progressively enhances its error detection capabilities (e.g., accuracy increases from 70.8% to 77.7% on ProcessBench) and surpasses strong baselines, including distilled R1 model. Furthermore, applying SPC to guide the test-time search of diverse LLMs significantly improves their mathematical reasoning performance on MATH500 and AIME2024, outperforming state-of-the-art process reward models.

Operationalizing large language models (LLMs) for custom, repetitive data pipelines is challenging, particularly due to their unpredictable and potentially catastrophic failures. Acknowledging the inevitability of these errors, we focus on identifying when LLMs may be generating incorrect responses when used repeatedly as part of data generation pipelines. We present SPADE, a method for automatically synthesizing assertions that identify bad LLM outputs. SPADE analyzes prompt version histories to create candidate assertion functions and then selects a minimal set that fulfills both coverage and accuracy requirements. In testing across nine different real-world LLM pipelines, SPADE efficiently reduces the number of assertions by 14% and decreases false failures by 21% when compared to simpler baselines.

The adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) in scientific writing promises efficiency but risks introducing informational entropy. While "hallucinated papers" are a known artifact, the systematic degradation of valid citation chains remains unquantified. We conducted a forensic audit of 50 recent survey papers in Artificial Intelligence (N=5,514 citations) published between September 2024 and January 2026. We utilized a hybrid verification pipeline combining DOI resolution, Crossref metadata analysis, Semantic Scholar queries, and fuzzy text matching to distinguish between formatting errors ("Sloppiness") and verifiable non-existence ("Phantoms). We detect a persistent 17.0% Phantom Rate -- citations that cannot be resolved to any digital object despite aggressive forensic recovery. Diagnostic categorization reveals three distinct failure modes: pure hallucinations (5.1%), hallucinated identifiers with valid titles (16.4%), and parsing-induced matching failures (78.5%). Longitudinal analysis reveals a flat trend (+0.07 pp/month), suggesting that high-entropy citation practices have stabilized as an endemic feature of the field. The scientific citation graph in AI survey literature exhibits "link rot" at scale. This suggests a mechanism where AI tools act as "lazy research assistants," retrieving correct titles but hallucinating metadata, thereby severing the digital chain of custody required for reproducible science.

Maybe not. We identify and analyse errors in the popular Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. Even though MMLU is widely adopted, our analysis demonstrates numerous ground truth errors that obscure the true capabilities of LLMs. For example, we find that 57% of the analysed questions in the Virology subset contain errors. To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive framework for identifying dataset errors using a novel error taxonomy. Then, we create MMLU-Redux, which is a subset of 3,000 manually re-annotated questions across 30 MMLU subjects. Using MMLU-Redux, we demonstrate significant discrepancies with the model performance metrics that were originally reported. Our results strongly advocate for revising MMLU's error-ridden questions to enhance its future utility and reliability as a benchmark. Therefore, we open up MMLU-Redux for additional annotation https://huggingface.co/datasets/edinburgh-dawg/mmlu-redux.

The availability of structured legal data is important for advancing Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques for the German legal system. One of the most widely used datasets, Open Legal Data, provides a large-scale collection of German court decisions. While the metadata in this raw dataset is consistently structured, the decision texts themselves are inconsistently formatted and often lack clearly marked sections. Reliable separation of these sections is important not only for rhetorical role classification but also for downstream tasks such as retrieval and citation analysis. In this work, we introduce a cleaned and sectioned dataset of 251,038 German court decisions derived from the official Open Legal Data dataset. We systematically separated three important sections in German court decisions, namely Tenor (operative part of the decision), Tatbestand (facts of the case), and Entscheidungsgründe (judicial reasoning), which are often inconsistently represented in the original dataset. To ensure the reliability of our extraction process, we used Cochran's formula with a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error to draw a statistically representative random sample of 384 cases, and manually verified that all three sections were correctly identified. We also extracted the Rechtsmittelbelehrung (appeal notice) as a separate field, since it is a procedural instruction and not part of the decision itself. The resulting corpus is publicly available in the JSONL format, making it an accessible resource for further research on the German legal system.

Recent advances in stereo matching have achieved remarkable accuracy, but often rely on large models, heavy computation, or additional foundation-model priors, making them difficult to deploy on resource-constrained platforms. In contrast, efficient stereo models offer faster inference but are commonly considered less capable of strong zero-shot generalization. In this paper, we challenge this assumption by introducing Lite Any Stereo V2 (LAS2), an ultra-fast model series designed for efficient zero-shot stereo matching. LAS2 is developed from both architecture and training perspectives. Architecturally, we revisit efficient stereo design under practical deployment settings and propose a 2D-only cost aggregation framework, optimized for real inference latency rather than theoretical MACs alone. For training, we develop a three-stage strategy that combines synthetic supervision, self-distillation, and real-world knowledge distillation. To improve the reliability of real-world pseudo supervision, we further introduce pseudo-label filtering and an error-clamping operation, enabling smoother synthetic-to-real transfer. We instantiate LAS2 as a family of models, including feed-forward variants for different efficiency budgets and an iterative variant for higher accuracy. Extensive experiments show that LAS2 achieves state-of-the-art accuracy among efficient stereo methods while maintaining significantly lower latency. Specifically, LAS2-H achieves stronger overall zero-shot performance than the iterative method Fast-FoundationStereo, with 1.8x and 2.7x faster inference on H200 and Orin, respectively. The project page, demos, and code are available at https://tomtomtommi.github.io/LiteAnyStereoV2/.

Machine learning demand forecasts optimize statistical accuracy yet leave excess operational volatility that inflates safety stock and amplifies the Bullwhip effect. We introduce Contextual Deconvolution (CD), a two-stage estimator that reframes demand sensing as a convex decomposition: a kernel-modulated banded operator separates transient promotion-driven shocks from a smooth structural baseline, and hierarchical partial pooling enables catalog-scale deployment without per-SKU training. The operator is data-derived, not imposed---it reduces to the identity wherever the promotional response is impulsive (most of M5, all of Favorita) and contributes only where genuine multi-day carryover exists, so the gains rest on the structural decomposition itself. Evaluating strictly out-of-sample on 30,490 M5 SKUs and 2,845 Favorita items, with calendar-aware baselines given CD's identical future calendar, we anchor the contribution on a full inventory-cost accounting: CD lowers safety stock, holding cost, and order variance but under-provisions event spikes, reducing total cost only when holding costs exceed sim20\% of stockout costs (95\% CI [17%,25%]); otherwise it is an operational-stability and inventory-capital layer, not an expected-cost minimizer. Its accuracy contribution is reliability rather than central tendency: across eleven baselines, CD attains the lowest cross-sectional dispersion of per-SKU error and mis-forecasts by more than 200\% on 0.8\% of SKUs versus 9.9--20.6\% for every baseline, ranking first on both in all four M5 draws. Because the Variance Ratio and std-based safety stock are minimized by any sufficiently smooth forecast, we treat them as diagnostics, not objectives. A supporting analysis shows the learned demand operators are non-normal, yet CD's compact parametric kernel matches their operational performance interpretably.

While tool-augmented Large Language Models have significantly improved multi-step reasoning in quantitative STEM tasks, a critical residual failure mode remains: intermediate reasoning steps that are syntactically well-formed, mathematically executable, and unit-consistent, yet contextually ungrounded. Current approaches either rely on formal verifiers that cannot assess semantic intent, or burden Process Reward Models (PRMs) with the dual task of checking both arithmetic and logic. In this paper, we propose a neuro-symbolic framework that cleanly decouples reasoning into two formal dimensions: Symbolic Validity (V) and Semantic Groundedness (G). We guarantee V by construction using a deterministic symbolic verifier acting as a hard filter. To assess G, we train a PRM conditionally on the verifier-accepted manifold. To train this PRM efficiently, we introduce Counterfactual Symbolic Perturbation (CSP), a novel data synthesis strategy that algorithmically generates constraint-preserving hard negatives (steps that perfectly pass the verifier but are logically flawed). At inference, we deploy a verifier-first constrained search that guarantees execution consistency for verifier-covered operations while relying on the PRM solely to rank semantic grounding. By targeting the exact residual error class of strong tool-using LLMs, our method significantly improves reasoning reliability without the sprawling heuristics of prior frameworks.

Multimodal lifelong navigation requires an agent to autonomously explore unseen environments while sequentially completing navigation tasks specified by object categories, language descriptions, or reference images. Existing methods primarily accomplish these tasks by constructing state-centric semantic scene graphs. By treating scene graphs as persistent repositories of semantic observations, these methods struggle to distinguish similar instances, jointly represent semantic targets and exploration frontiers, and effectively exploit navigation memory and trajectory experience. To address these limitations, we propose Spatio-Temporal Event Graph Navigation (STEGNav), a training-free framework that extends conventional scene graphs into spatio-temporal event graphs along complementary spatial and temporal axes. The spatial axis performs query-conditioned instance grounding and jointly represents semantic targets and occupancy-aware exploration frontiers characterized by reachability, path cost, and exploration utility. The temporal axis employs trajectory-aware dual-window memory to retain recent decision--trajectory events and verified cross-subtask navigation outcomes. A VLM-based navigation agent reasons over the resulting spatio-temporal event graph and selects either a target instance or an exploration frontier as its next navigation goal. STEGNav achieves 66.3% SR and 39.7 SPL on GOAT-Bench, as well as SR scores of 64.0% and 69.4% on HM3Dv1 and HM3Dv2, respectively. Ablation studies and error analyses validate the complementary effects of the two axes, demonstrating that event-driven spatio-temporal representations improve navigation reliability and cross-subtask experience reuse.

Spreadsheets are central to real-world applications such as enterprise reporting, auditing, and scientific data management. Despite their ubiquity, existing large language model based approaches typically treat tables as plain text, overlooking critical layout cues and visual semantics. Moreover, real-world spreadsheets are often massive in scale, exceeding the input length that LLMs can efficiently process. To address these challenges, we propose SpreadsheetAgent, a two-stage multi-agent framework for spreadsheet understanding that adopts a step-by-step reading and reasoning paradigm. Instead of loading the entire spreadsheet at once, SpreadsheetAgent incrementally interprets localized regions through multiple modalities, including code execution results, images, and LaTeX tables. The method first constructs a structural sketch and row/column summaries, and then performs task-driven reasoning over this intermediate representation in the Solving Stage. To further enhance reliability, we design a verification module that validates extracted structures via targeted inspections, reducing error propagation and ensuring trustworthy inputs for downstream reasoning. Extensive experiments on two spreadsheet datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. With GPT-OSS-120B, SpreadsheetAgent achieves 38.16% on Spreadsheet Bench, outperforming the ChatGPT Agent baseline (35.27%) by 2.89 absolute points. These results highlight the potential of SpreadsheetAgent to advance robust and scalable spreadsheet understanding in real-world applications. Code is available at https://github.com/renhouxing/SpreadsheetAgent.git.

Physics-informed neural PDE solvers adapt their parameters to satisfy governing equations, yet their representational structure typically remains fixed throughout training. This rigidity is poorly matched to PDE solutions with strongly heterogeneous complexity across space and space--time, leaving capacity insufficient where the physics is difficult and redundant where it is simple. We introduce physics-informed neural plasticity, a paradigm in which the representation itself reshapes during optimization in response to unresolved physics. We instantiate this principle with Representation Capacity Adaptation for PDEs (ReCAP), a Gaussian-localized solver that dynamically redistributes capacity through local enrichment, residual-directed splitting, gate-based pruning, and function-aware merging. ReCAP uses responsibility-weighted error indicators and the geometry of residual energy to determine where and how to refine. To limit the disturbance introduced by splitting, we introduce quiet-child refinement, which initializes new components by transporting the parent representation while controlling instantaneous functional perturbation. We further establish conditional a posteriori reliability and structural-stability guarantees linking localized physics residuals to solution error and stable refinement. Across five challenging 3D and 4D PDE benchmarks against 11 physics-informed solvers, ReCAP achieves the lowest relative L^2 error on every problem, reducing error by 10.7%--27.5% relative to the strongest competing result. These results suggest that physics-informed solvers need not merely learn their parameters---they can learn how their representational capacity should be organized.

Extracting meaningful insights from large and complex datasets poses significant challenges, particularly in ensuring the accuracy and relevance of retrieved information. Traditional data retrieval methods such as sequential search and index-based retrieval often fail when handling intricate and interconnected data structures, resulting in incomplete or misleading outputs. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Structured-GraphRAG, a versatile framework designed to enhance information retrieval across structured datasets in natural language queries. Structured-GraphRAG utilizes multiple knowledge graphs, which represent data in a structured format and capture complex relationships between entities, enabling a more nuanced and comprehensive retrieval of information. This graph-based approach reduces the risk of errors in language model outputs by grounding responses in a structured format, thereby enhancing the reliability of results. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Structured-GraphRAG by comparing its performance with that of a recently published method using traditional retrieval-augmented generation. Our findings show that Structured-GraphRAG significantly improves query processing efficiency and reduces response times. While our case study focuses on soccer data, the framework's design is broadly applicable, offering a powerful tool for data analysis and enhancing language model applications across various structured domains.

Autoformalization, which translates natural language mathematics into machine-verifiable formal statements, is critical for using formal mathematical reasoning to solve math problems stated in natural language. While Large Language Models can generate syntactically correct formal statements, they often fail to preserve the original problem's semantic intent. This limitation arises from the LLM approaches' treating autoformalization as a simplistic translation task which lacks mechanisms for self-reflection and iterative refinement that human experts naturally employ. To address these issues, we propose ReForm, a Reflective Autoformalization method that tightly integrates semantic consistency evaluation into the autoformalization process. This enables the model to iteratively generate formal statements, assess its semantic fidelity, and self-correct identified errors through progressive refinement. To effectively train this reflective model, we introduce Prospective Bounded Sequence Optimization (PBSO), which employs different rewards at different sequence positions to ensure that the model develops both accurate autoformalization and correct semantic validations, preventing superficial critiques that would undermine the purpose of reflection. Extensive experiments across four autoformalization benchmarks demonstrate that ReForm achieves an average improvement of 17.2 percentage points over the strongest baselines. To further ensure evaluation reliability, we introduce ConsistencyCheck, a benchmark of 859 expert-annotated items that not only validates LLMs as judges but also reveals that autoformalization is inherently difficult: even human experts produce semantic errors in up to 38.5% of cases.

The expansion of the low-altitude economy has underscored the significance of Low-Altitude Network Coverage (LANC) prediction for designing aerial corridors. While accurate LANC forecasting hinges on the antenna beam patterns of Base Stations (BSs), these patterns are typically proprietary and not readily accessible. Operational parameters of BSs, which inherently contain beam information, offer an opportunity for data-driven low-altitude coverage prediction. However, collecting extensive low-altitude road test data is cost-prohibitive, often yielding only sparse samples per BS. This scarcity results in two primary challenges: imbalanced feature sampling due to limited variability in high-dimensional operational parameters against the backdrop of substantial changes in low-dimensional sampling locations, and diminished generalizability stemming from insufficient data samples. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce a dual strategy comprising expert knowledge-based feature compression and disentangled representation learning. The former reduces feature space complexity by leveraging communications expertise, while the latter enhances model generalizability through the integration of propagation models and distinct subnetworks that capture and aggregate the semantic representations of latent features. Experimental evaluation confirms the efficacy of our framework, yielding a 7% reduction in error compared to the best baseline algorithm. Real-network validations further attest to its reliability, achieving practical prediction accuracy with MAE errors at the 5dB level.

AI agents are increasingly used for programming, but do not provide any guarantee on the correctness of generated code. Verified code generation, in which an agent produces both an implementation and a machine-checked proof of its specification, offers a stronger path toward trustworthy AI-generated software. Existing benchmarks in this direction either focus on individual functions or only evaluate proof generation with provided implementations. It is still an open question whether agents can make coherent implementation and proof choices across real multi-module codebases. To bridge this gap, we introduce Vero, the first benchmark to evaluate joint implementation and proof synthesis at the repository level. Vero contains 43 multi-module instances sourced from real-world repositories spanning Python, Dafny, Verus, and Coq, and covering diverse domains from cryptographic protocols to distributed systems. Each instance consists of a multi-module Lean 4 repository with predetermined API interfaces, manually curated formal specifications, and reference implementations, supporting both proof-only and code-and-proof evaluation modes. To improve benchmark reliability, Vero also includes an audit mechanism where agents are allowed to formally prove unsatisfiability of provided specification or incorrectness of reference code, which surfaces and corrects latent code and specification errors during curation. We evaluate frontier coding-agent configurations with Lean toolchain access. The strongest agent fully solves only 27 of 43 instances and closes no specifications on the hardest repositories. Vero provides a concrete testbed for measuring progress toward repository-scale verified software synthesis, where current agents still fall short. We release the benchmark, curation pipeline, and evaluation harness at https://github.com/sunblaze-ucb/vero.

Recent advancements in automated audio captioning (AAC) have shifted from monolithic sentence generation toward structured formats that explicitly disentangle distinct acoustic and semantic properties. However, evaluating this heterogeneous data remains a significant challenge. Existing caption metrics focus on flat textual outputs and fail to reliably assess multimodal attributes. To bridge this gap, we propose a multi-axis evaluation framework tailored for structured audio descriptions. Building on the AudioCards dataset, we evaluate outputs across five orthogonal axes: tag-sets, descriptions, logical reasoning, numeric measurements, and spectral profiles. Our approach combines Large Language Model (LLM) judges to capture semantic nuance with deterministic computational metrics to precisely measure acoustic deviations. To rigorously validate the reliability of this framework, we introduce a controlled perturbation testing protocol that injects typed, graded errors into groundtruth annotations. Our results demonstrate that this framework successfully distinguishes meaning-preserving paraphrases from genuine semantic and acoustic corruptions.

Existing works of reasoning segmentation often fall short in complex cases, particularly when addressing complicated queries and out-of-domain images. Inspired by the chain-of-thought reasoning, where harder problems require longer thinking steps/time, this paper aims to explore a system that can think step-by-step, look up information if needed, generate results, self-evaluate its own results, and refine the results, in the same way humans approach harder questions. We introduce CoT-Seg, a training-free framework that rethinks reasoning segmentation by combining chain-of-thought reasoning with self-correction. Instead of fine-tuning, CoT-Seg leverages the inherent reasoning ability of pre-trained MLLMs (GPT-4o) to decompose queries into meta-instructions, extract fine-grained semantics from images, and identify target objects even under implicit or complex prompts. Moreover, CoT-Seg incorporates a self-correction stage: the model evaluates its own segmentation against the original query and reasoning trace, identifies mismatches, and iteratively refines the mask. This tight integration of reasoning and correction significantly improves reliability and robustness, especially in ambiguous or error-prone cases. Furthermore, our CoT-Seg framework allows easy incorporation of retrieval-augmented reasoning, enabling the system to access external knowledge when the input lacks sufficient information. To showcase CoT-Seg's ability to handle very challenging cases ,we introduce a new dataset ReasonSeg-Hard. Our results highlight that combining chain-of-thought reasoning, self-correction, offers a powerful paradigm for vision-language integration driven segmentation.

First-order optimization (FOO) algorithms are pivotal in numerous computational domains such as machine learning and signal denoising. However, their application to complex tasks like neural network training often entails significant inefficiencies due to the need for many sequential iterations for convergence. In response, we introduce first-order optimization expedited with approximately parallelized iterations (OptEx), the first framework that enhances the efficiency of FOO by leveraging parallel computing to mitigate its iterative bottleneck. OptEx employs kernelized gradient estimation to make use of gradient history for future gradient prediction, enabling parallelization of iterations -- a strategy once considered impractical because of the inherent iterative dependency in FOO. We provide theoretical guarantees for the reliability of our kernelized gradient estimation and the iteration complexity of SGD-based OptEx, confirming that estimation errors diminish to zero as historical gradients accumulate and that SGD-based OptEx enjoys an effective acceleration rate of Omega(N) over standard SGD given parallelism of N. We also use extensive empirical studies, including synthetic functions, reinforcement learning tasks, and neural network training across various datasets, to underscore the substantial efficiency improvements achieved by OptEx.

While deep learning has led to huge progress in complex image classification tasks like ImageNet, unexpected failure modes, e.g. via spurious features, call into question how reliably these classifiers work in the wild. Furthermore, for safety-critical tasks the black-box nature of their decisions is problematic, and explanations or at least methods which make decisions plausible are needed urgently. In this paper, we address these problems by generating images that optimize a classifier-derived objective using a framework for guided image generation. We analyze the decisions of image classifiers by visual counterfactual explanations (VCEs), detection of systematic mistakes by analyzing images where classifiers maximally disagree, and visualization of neurons and spurious features. In this way, we validate existing observations, e.g. the shape bias of adversarially robust models, as well as novel failure modes, e.g. systematic errors of zero-shot CLIP classifiers. Moreover, our VCEs outperform previous work while being more versatile.

Offline reinforcement learning learns an effective policy on offline datasets without online interaction, and it attracts persistent research attention due to its potential of practical application. However, extrapolation error generated by distribution shift will still lead to the overestimation for those actions that transit to out-of-distribution(OOD) states, which degrades the reliability and robustness of the offline policy. In this paper, we propose Contextual Conservative Q-Learning(C-CQL) to learn a robustly reliable policy through the contextual information captured via an inverse dynamics model. With the supervision of the inverse dynamics model, it tends to learn a policy that generates stable transition at perturbed states, for the fact that pertuebed states are a common kind of OOD states. In this manner, we enable the learnt policy more likely to generate transition that destines to the empirical next state distributions of the offline dataset, i.e., robustly reliable transition. Besides, we theoretically reveal that C-CQL is the generalization of the Conservative Q-Learning(CQL) and aggressive State Deviation Correction(SDC). Finally, experimental results demonstrate the proposed C-CQL achieves the state-of-the-art performance in most environments of offline Mujoco suite and a noisy Mujoco setting.

Training of autonomous driving systems requires extensive datasets with precise annotations to attain robust performance. Human annotations suffer from imperfections, and multiple iterations are often needed to produce high-quality datasets. However, manually reviewing large datasets is laborious and expensive. In this paper, we introduce AutoVDC (Automated Vision Data Cleaning) framework and investigate the utilization of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to automatically identify erroneous annotations in vision datasets, thereby enabling users to eliminate these errors and enhance data quality. We validate our approach using the KITTI and nuImages datasets, which contain object detection benchmarks for autonomous driving. To test the effectiveness of AutoVDC, we create dataset variants with intentionally injected erroneous annotations and observe the error detection rate of our approach. Additionally, we compare the detection rates using different VLMs and explore the impact of VLM fine-tuning on our pipeline. The results demonstrate our method's high performance in error detection and data cleaning experiments, indicating its potential to significantly improve the reliability and accuracy of large-scale production datasets in autonomous driving.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to structured clinical data, yet whether they can recognize the limits of their own knowledge on such tasks remains unexplored. We study this question through the lens of cross-model attribution divergence with the goal of reducing epistemic uncertainty for structured tasks, comparing Qwen 2.5 7B and XGBoost on a prediction task via attribution divergence analysis. We report four findings. First, LLM verbalized confidence is epistemically vacuous, it outputs a near-constant (0.856-0.937) regardless of whether accuracy is 49% or 75.3%, tracking prompt format rather than prediction quality. Second, the LLM exhibits an inverse difficulty effect: accuracy drops to 64.8% when XGBoost is 99% correct, but matches XGBoost (73.8% vs. 73.1%) when it is moderately uncertain. Third, few-shot examples and SHAP-derived feature evidence are orthogonal, super-additive interventions: they reduce the Attribution Disagreement Score (ADS) from 1.54 to 0.38 and improve accuracy from 49% to 75.3% without training. Fourth, a cross-model calibrator that determined LLM reliability using attribution divergence signals reduces expected calibration error from 0.254 to 0.080, replacing uninformative verbalized confidence with patient-specific reliability estimates, without accessing model internals or requiring repeated inference. We frame these findings as a cold start problem for LLMs on structured data and outline a path toward genuine epistemic self-awareness.

Why do large language models sometimes output factual inaccuracies and exhibit erroneous reasoning? The brittleness of these models, particularly when executing long chains of reasoning, currently seems to be an inevitable price to pay for their advanced capabilities of coherently synthesizing knowledge, pragmatics, and abstract thought. Towards making sense of this fundamentally unsolved problem, this work identifies and analyzes the phenomenon of attention glitches, in which the Transformer architecture's inductive biases intermittently fail to capture robust reasoning. To isolate the issue, we introduce flip-flop language modeling (FFLM), a parametric family of synthetic benchmarks designed to probe the extrapolative behavior of neural language models. This simple generative task requires a model to copy binary symbols over long-range dependencies, ignoring the tokens in between. We find that Transformer FFLMs suffer from a long tail of sporadic reasoning errors, some of which we can eliminate using various regularization techniques. Our preliminary mechanistic analyses show why the remaining errors may be very difficult to diagnose and resolve. We hypothesize that attention glitches account for (some of) the closed-domain hallucinations in natural LLMs.

In this paper we address issues with image retrieval benchmarking on standard and popular Oxford 5k and Paris 6k datasets. In particular, annotation errors, the size of the dataset, and the level of challenge are addressed: new annotation for both datasets is created with an extra attention to the reliability of the ground truth. Three new protocols of varying difficulty are introduced. The protocols allow fair comparison between different methods, including those using a dataset pre-processing stage. For each dataset, 15 new challenging queries are introduced. Finally, a new set of 1M hard, semi-automatically cleaned distractors is selected. An extensive comparison of the state-of-the-art methods is performed on the new benchmark. Different types of methods are evaluated, ranging from local-feature-based to modern CNN based methods. The best results are achieved by taking the best of the two worlds. Most importantly, image retrieval appears far from being solved.

As multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) frequently exhibit errors when solving scientific problems, evaluating the validity of their reasoning processes is critical for ensuring reliability and uncovering fine-grained model weaknesses. Since human evaluation is laborious and costly, prompting MLLMs as automated process judges has become a common practice. However, the reliability of these model-based judges remains uncertain. To address this, we introduce ProJudgeBench, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for evaluating abilities of MLLM-based process judges. ProJudgeBench comprises 2,400 test cases and 50,118 step-level labels, spanning four scientific disciplines with diverse difficulty levels and multi-modal content. In ProJudgeBench, each step is meticulously annotated by human experts for correctness, error type, and explanation, enabling a systematic evaluation of judges' capabilities to detect, classify and diagnose errors. Evaluation on ProJudgeBench reveals a significant performance gap between open-source and proprietary models. To bridge this gap, we further propose ProJudge-173k, a large-scale instruction-tuning dataset, and a Dynamic Dual-Phase fine-tuning strategy that encourages models to explicitly reason through problem-solving before assessing solutions. Both contributions significantly enhance the process evaluation capabilities of open-source models. All the resources will be released to foster future research of reliable multi-modal process evaluation.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is crucial for model reliability, as it identifies samples from unknown classes and reduces errors due to unexpected inputs. Vision-Language Models (VLMs) such as CLIP are emerging as powerful tools for OOD detection by integrating multi-modal information. However, the practical application of such systems is challenged by manual prompt engineering, which demands domain expertise and is sensitive to linguistic nuances. In this paper, we introduce Label-driven Automated Prompt Tuning (LAPT), a novel approach to OOD detection that reduces the need for manual prompt engineering. We develop distribution-aware prompts with in-distribution (ID) class names and negative labels mined automatically. Training samples linked to these class labels are collected autonomously via image synthesis and retrieval methods, allowing for prompt learning without manual effort. We utilize a simple cross-entropy loss for prompt optimization, with cross-modal and cross-distribution mixing strategies to reduce image noise and explore the intermediate space between distributions, respectively. The LAPT framework operates autonomously, requiring only ID class names as input and eliminating the need for manual intervention. With extensive experiments, LAPT consistently outperforms manually crafted prompts, setting a new standard for OOD detection. Moreover, LAPT not only enhances the distinction between ID and OOD samples, but also improves the ID classification accuracy and strengthens the generalization robustness to covariate shifts, resulting in outstanding performance in challenging full-spectrum OOD detection tasks. Codes are available at https://github.com/YBZh/LAPT.

Automatic evaluation metrics are essential for building multilingual translation systems. The common practice of evaluating these systems is averaging metric scores across languages, yet this is suspicious since metrics may suffer from cross-lingual scoring bias, where translations of equal quality receive different scores across languages. This problem has not been systematically studied because no benchmark exists that provides parallel-quality instances across languages, and expert annotation is not realistic. In this work, we propose XQ-MEval, a semi-automatically built dataset covering nine translation directions, to benchmark translation metrics. Specifically, we inject MQM-defined errors into gold translations automatically, filter them by native speakers for reliability, and merge errors to generate pseudo translations with controllable quality. These pseudo translations are then paired with corresponding sources and references to form triplets used in assessing the qualities of translation metrics. Using XQ-MEval, our experiments on nine representative metrics reveal the inconsistency between averaging and human judgment and provide the first empirical evidence of cross-lingual scoring bias. Finally, we propose a normalization strategy derived from XQ-MEval that aligns score distributions across languages, improving the fairness and reliability of multilingual metric evaluation.

Large language model (LLM) coding agents are increasingly deployed to autonomously perform software engineering tasks in terminal-based environments, making their reliability a growing concern. Existing empirical studies investigate why coding agents fail, yet they largely treat failure as a final outcome rather than a temporal process, providing limited insight into how failures emerge, evolve, and become unrecoverable. We present the first large-scale empirical study of CLI coding-agent failure trajectories, introducing a process-oriented framework that analyzes failure through its onset, evolution, and recovery across execution trajectories. We first collect 3,843 execution trajectories generated by seven frontier models across three coding-agent scaffolds (OpenHands, MiniSWE, and Terminus2) on Terminal-Bench, then carefully filter them to obtain 1,794 complete and valid trajectories for manual annotation (over 63,000 execution steps), from which we derive 14 findings spanning failure occurrence, root causes, recovery, and cross-system consistency. Our findings show that coding-agent failures are predominantly driven by epistemic errors, typically begin within the first few execution steps, and often remain hidden until recovery is no longer possible, suggesting that improving coding-agent reliability requires earlier validation and intervention rather than relying solely on final-outcome evaluation.

Large language model (LLM) agents rely on long-term memory to support extended interactions and personalized assistance beyond finite context windows. Existing memory agents actively update external memory through generated write, revise, and delete operations, but these updates may omit important information, corrupt existing memory, or introduce unsupported hallucinated content. Once stored, such errors become persistent system-state failures that can affect future reasoning and generation. In this paper, we propose TrustMem, a framework designed to improve the trustworthiness of memory consolidation. TrustMem relies on a Memory Transition Verifier to evaluate the transition process of memory updates in terms of coverage, preservation, and faithfulness. It further constructs preference pairs among candidate updates under the same memory state, enabling preference-guided reinforcement learning to directly optimize memory updating behaviors. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TrustMem improves both memory utility and reliability: it achieves state-of-the-art results across MemoryAgentBench, HaluMem, and the Mem-alpha validation set, improves HaluMem memory extraction by 12.14 F1 points, and reduces transition-level omission, corruption, and hallucination by 40.1\%, 79.1\%, and 50.0\%, respectively, compared with the strongest baseline for each error type.

Markerless Mobile Augmented Reality (AR) aims to anchor digital content in the physical world without using specific 2D or 3D objects. Absolute Pose Regressors (APR) are end-to-end machine learning solutions that infer the device's pose from a single monocular image. Thanks to their low computation cost, they can be directly executed on the constrained hardware of mobile AR devices. However, APR methods tend to yield significant inaccuracies for input images that are too distant from the training set. This paper introduces KS-APR, a pipeline that assesses the reliability of an estimated pose with minimal overhead by combining the inference results of the APR and the prior images in the training set. Mobile AR systems tend to rely upon visual-inertial odometry to track the relative pose of the device during the experience. As such, KS-APR favours reliability over frequency, discarding unreliable poses. This pipeline can integrate most existing APR methods to improve accuracy by filtering unreliable images with their pose estimates. We implement the pipeline on three types of APR models on indoor and outdoor datasets. The median error on position and orientation is reduced for all models, and the proportion of large errors is minimized across datasets. Our method enables state-of-the-art APRs such as DFNetdm to outperform single-image and sequential APR methods. These results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of KS-APR for visual localization tasks that do not require one-shot decisions.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in understanding visual content, but their reliability in safety-critical contexts remains under-explored. We introduce VERI (Visual Emergency Recognition Dataset), a carefully designed diagnostic benchmark of 200 images (100 contrastive pairs). Each emergency scene is matched with a visually similar but safe counterpart through multi-stage human verification and iterative refinement. Using a two-stage protocol - risk identification and emergency response - we evaluate 14 VLMs (2B-124B parameters) across medical emergencies, accidents, and natural disasters. Our analysis reveals a systematic overreaction problem: models excel at identifying real emergencies (70-100 percent success rate) but suffer from an alarming rate of false alarms, misidentifying 31-96 percent of safe situations as dangerous, with 10 scenarios failed by all models regardless of scale. This "better-safe-than-sorry" bias manifests primarily through contextual overinterpretation (88-93 percent of errors), challenging VLMs' reliability for safety applications. These findings highlight persistent limitations that are not resolved by increasing model scale, motivating targeted approaches for improving contextual safety assessment in visually misleading scenarios.

In our opinion the exuberance surrounding the relative success of data-driven large language models (LLMs) is slightly misguided and for several reasons (i) LLMs cannot be relied upon for factual information since for LLMs all ingested text (factual or non-factual) was created equal; (ii) due to their subsymbolic na-ture, whatever 'knowledge' these models acquire about language will always be buried in billions of microfeatures (weights), none of which is meaningful on its own; and (iii) LLMs will often fail to make the correct inferences in several linguistic contexts (e.g., nominal compounds, copredication, quantifier scope ambi-guities, intensional contexts. Since we believe the relative success of data-driven large language models (LLMs) is not a reflection on the symbolic vs. subsymbol-ic debate but a reflection on applying the successful strategy of a bottom-up reverse engineering of language at scale, we suggest in this paper applying the effective bottom-up strategy in a symbolic setting resulting in symbolic, explainable, and ontologically grounded language models.

Despite speech recognition systems achieving low word error rates on standard benchmarks, they often fail on short, high-stakes utterances in real-world deployments. Here, we study this failure mode in a high-stakes task: the transcription of U.S. street names as spoken by U.S. participants. We evaluate 15 models from OpenAI, Deepgram, Google, and Microsoft on recordings from linguistically diverse U.S. speakers and find an average transcription error rate of 44%. We quantify the downstream impact of failed transcriptions by geographic locations and show that mis-transcriptions systematically cause errors for all speakers, but that routing distance errors are twice as large for non-English primary speakers compared to English primary speakers. To mitigate this harm, we introduce a synthetic data generation approach that produces diverse pronunciations of named entities using open-source text-to-speech models. Fine-tuning with less than 1,000 synthetic samples improves street name transcription accuracy by nearly 60% (relative to base models) for non-English primary speakers. Our results highlight a critical gap between benchmark performance and real-world reliability in speech systems and demonstrate a simple, scalable path to reducing high-stakes transcription errors.

Reliable hypothesis testing is the foundation of many empirical scientific claims. Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly used to automate this process, as they can inspect datasets, generate code, and produce analyses end-to-end. However, we show that they frequently make subtle inferential errors that lead to incorrect conclusions despite correctly executed analyses. Existing benchmarks fail to capture this failure mode, as they rarely assess whether a reported p-value is statistically valid given the assumptions underlying the data. We address this gap by building P-Bench, a benchmark comprising 425 open-ended, realistic hypothesis-testing tasks spanning economics, biology, and medicine. Each task requires an agent to select a statistical method, compute a p-value, and draw a conclusion given only a scientific hypothesis and a dataset. We further introduce Fisher-R1, an open-weight LLM agent trained for rigorous hypothesis testing using synthetic tasks and reinforcement learning. On P-Bench, Fisher-R1-14B substantially improves over its backbone and outperforms strong proprietary and open-source baselines, including GPT-5.4 and DeepSeekV4-Pro, achieving a 21% average relative improvement in single-trial success over DeepSeek-V4-Pro, with gains up to 26% on the most challenging tasks. Our results demonstrate that current LLM agents lack reliable statistical reasoning for hypothesis testing and that reinforcement learning on tasks with verified statistical reward substantially improves reliability.

Large language models can generate fluent Arabic answers while introducing factual errors that are difficult to identify and verify. Existing Arabic hallucination resources often assign a binary label to an entire response, indicating whether it is hallucinated or non-hallucinated, but provide limited information about the exact erroneous content, the reason for the error, or the correct factual answer. We present HalluTruthQA-4K, an expanded version of the HalluTruthQA resource containing 4,000 expert-curated Arabic question-answering instances across four knowledge-intensive domains: Islamic knowledge, history, science, and geography. Serving as the official dataset for Track 2 of the HalluScoring 2026 shared task, HalluTruthQA-4K extends our original corpus to 4,000 instances. Each instance pairs an Arabic question with a model-generated response, a verified reference answer, and five plausible distractors. Hallucinated responses are additionally annotated with character-level erroneous spans, human-written explanations, and hierarchical hallucination types. The corpus contains 1,643 hallucinated and 2,357 non-hallucinated responses, with 1,843 annotated erroneous spans. We describe the resource construction and annotation methodology, including question selection, controlled answer generation, candidate construction, expert annotation, independent verification, adjudication, and quality control. We also document the annotation guidelines, taxonomy, data format, inter-annotator agreement, and corpus statistics. HalluTruthQA-4K provides a reusable resource for hallucination detection, span-level error localization, explanation generation, factual verification, and the broader evaluation of factual reliability in Arabic language models.

Knowledge graphs have become a key resource for integrating heterogeneous data and powering downstream tasks such as question answering, entity linking, and semantic search. They are built and maintained incrementally, either (i) fully automated, e.g., YAGO, (ii) semiautomatically with community oversight, e.g., DBpedia, or (iii) manually through collaborative editing, e.g., Wikidata. Understanding the evolution of knowledge graphs is essential as changes may reflect real-world updates, error corrections, or noise introduced by vandalism, all of which affect the reliability of downstream applications. Among openly available knowledge graphs, Wikidata is the most challenging case to study evolution, with over 120 million entities edited by humans and bots and an edit history spanning more than a decade. Although Wikidata exposes change data in various formats (e.g., periodic dumps and real-time event streams), none support analytical queries over the complete edit history. Therefore, we present WiDiff, a tool that extracts changes from Wikidata's complete edit history and provides a unified interface for large-scale analytical queries over it.

This report presents an Audio-aware Referring Video Object Segmentation (Ref-VOS) pipeline tailored to the MEVIS\_Audio setting, where the referring expression is provided in spoken form rather than as clean text. Compared with a standard Sa2VA-based Ref-VOS pipeline, the proposed system introduces two additional front-end stages: speech transcription and visual existence verification. Specifically, we first employ VibeVoice-ASR to convert long-form spoken input into a structured textual transcript. Since audio-derived queries are inherently noisy and may describe entities that are not visually present in the video, we then introduce an Omni-based judgment module to determine whether the transcribed target can be grounded in the visual content. If the target is judged to be absent, the pipeline terminates early and outputs all-zero masks. Otherwise, the transcript is transformed into a segmentation-oriented prompt and fed into Sa2VA to obtain a coarse mask trajectory over the full video. Importantly, this trajectory is treated as an initial semantic hypothesis rather than a final prediction. On top of it, an agentic refinement layer evaluates query reliability, temporal relevance, anchor quality, and potential error sources, and may invoke SAM3 to improve spatial boundary precision and temporal consistency. The resulting framework explicitly decomposes the MEVIS\_Audio task into audio-to-text conversion, visual existence verification, coarse video segmentation, and agent-guided refinement. Such a staged design is substantially more appropriate for audio-conditioned Ref-VOS than directly sending noisy ASR outputs into a segmentation model.

In this paper, we explore various approaches for semi supervised learning in an end to end automatic speech recognition (ASR) framework. The first step in our approach involves training a seed model on the limited amount of labelled data. Additional unlabelled speech data is employed through a data selection mechanism to obtain the best hypothesized output, further used to retrain the seed model. However, uncertainties of the model may not be well captured with a single hypothesis. As opposed to this technique, we apply a dropout mechanism to capture the uncertainty by obtaining multiple hypothesized text transcripts of an speech recording. We assume that the diversity of automatically generated transcripts for an utterance will implicitly increase the reliability of the model. Finally, the data selection process is also applied on these hypothesized transcripts to reduce the uncertainty. Experiments on freely available TEDLIUM corpus and proprietary Adobe's internal dataset show that the proposed approach significantly reduces ASR errors, compared to the baseline model.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at natural language understanding and generation but remain vulnerable to factual errors, limiting their reliability in knowledge-intensive tasks. While decoding-time strategies provide a promising efficient solution without training, existing methods typically treat token-level and layer-level signals in isolation, overlooking the joint dynamics between them. In this work, we introduce a token-aware, layer-localized contrastive decoding method that aligns specific token types with their most influential transformer layers to improve factual generation. Through empirical attention analysis, we identify two key patterns: punctuation tokens receive dominant attention in early layers, while conceptual tokens govern semantic reasoning in intermediate layers. By selectively suppressing attention to these token types at their respective depths, we achieve the induction of controlled factual degradation and derive contrastive signals to guide the final factual decoding. Our method requires no additional training or model modification, and experiments demonstrate that our method consistently improves factuality across multiple LLMs and various benchmarks.

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a dilemma: uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods typically act as passive sensors, only diagnosing risks without addressing them, while self-reflection mechanisms suffer from continuous or aimless corrections. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified Dual-Process Agentic UQ (AUQ) framework that transforms verbalized uncertainty into active, bi-directional control signals. Our architecture comprises two complementary mechanisms: System 1 (Uncertainty-Aware Memory, UAM), which implicitly propagates verbalized confidence and semantic explanations to prevent blind decision-making; and System 2 (Uncertainty-Aware Reflection, UAR), which utilizes these explanations as rational cues to trigger targeted inference-time resolution only when necessary. This enables the agent to balance efficient execution and deep deliberation dynamically. Extensive experiments on closed-loop benchmarks and open-ended deep research tasks demonstrate that our training-free approach achieves superior performance and trajectory-level calibration. We believe this principled framework AUQ represents a significant step towards reliable agents.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for parallel token generation, with block-wise variants garnering significant research interest. Despite their potential, existing dLLMs typically suffer from a rigid accuracy-parallelism trade-off: increasing the number of tokens per forward (TPF) via aggressive parallel decoding often leads to performance degradation and increased generation instability. We identify that this limitation stems from the model's inability to navigate high-parallelism regimes where approximation errors and local corruptions accumulate, ultimately undermining the reliability of parallel generation. To address this, we propose LightningRL, a post-training framework designed to directly optimize the speed-quality Pareto frontier of pre-trained dLLMs. Instead of forcing uniform parallelization, our approach leverages reinforcement learning to identify and reinforce high-parallelism trajectories that maintain generation accuracy. Built upon the Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) framework, LightningRL introduces several enhancements tailored for dLLMs: (1) stabilized training via per-reward decoupled normalization; (2) token-level negative log-likelihood (NLL) regularization on correct trajectories to anchor model performance; and (3) a dynamic sampling strategy with TPF-aware filtering to enhance training efficiency. Experimental results across mathematical and coding benchmarks demonstrate that LightningRL consistently advances the Pareto frontier, achieving competitive task accuracy while significantly increasing parallelism, reaching an average TPF of 7.32 (with a peak of 11.10 on the MBPP dataset). Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DENG-Lab/LightningRL.

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly used to evaluate outputs of other models, for image-to-text (I2T) tasks such as visual question answering, and text-to-image (T2I) generation tasks. Despite this growing reliance, the reliability of these Evaluator VLMs remains under explored. In this work, we systematically evaluate the reliability of Evaluator VLMs across both I2T and T2I tasks. We introduce targeted perturbations that degrade output quality along key error dimensions, including object hallucinations, spatial reasoning, factual grounding, and visual fidelity. These perturbations test whether Evaluator VLMs can reliably account for these quality degrading errors in their evaluations. Using a comprehensive benchmark of over 4000 perturbed instances spanning 40 perturbation dimensions, we evaluate 4 prominent VLMs using single-answer scoring, pairwise comparison, and reference-guided paradigms. Our findings reveal that current VLM evaluators exhibit substantial blind spots: they often fail to detect perturbed outputs - in some cases exceeding 50%, struggle particularly with fine-grained compositional and spatial errors, and are often insensitive to hallucinated content that contradicts the input image. Pairwise comparison proves more reliable, though failure rates persist. These results highlight the unreliable nature of current Evaluator VLMs and urge caution in their deployment for benchmarking and development decisions. Code and data have been made publicly available.

We propose a lightweight scheme where the formation of a data block is changed in such a way that it can tolerate soft errors significantly better than the baseline. The key insight behind our work is that CNN weights are normalized between -1 and 1 after each convolutional layer, and this leaves one bit unused in half-precision floating-point representation. By taking advantage of the unused bit, we create a backup for the most significant bit to protect it against the soft errors. Also, considering the fact that in MLC STT-RAMs the cost of memory operations (read and write), and reliability of a cell are content-dependent (some patterns take larger current and longer time, while they are more susceptible to soft error), we rearrange the data block to minimize the number of costly bit patterns. Combining these two techniques provides the same level of accuracy compared to an error-free baseline while improving the read and write energy by 9% and 6%, respectively.

In this paper we present TruFor, a forensic framework that can be applied to a large variety of image manipulation methods, from classic cheapfakes to more recent manipulations based on deep learning. We rely on the extraction of both high-level and low-level traces through a transformer-based fusion architecture that combines the RGB image and a learned noise-sensitive fingerprint. The latter learns to embed the artifacts related to the camera internal and external processing by training only on real data in a self-supervised manner. Forgeries are detected as deviations from the expected regular pattern that characterizes each pristine image. Looking for anomalies makes the approach able to robustly detect a variety of local manipulations, ensuring generalization. In addition to a pixel-level localization map and a whole-image integrity score, our approach outputs a reliability map that highlights areas where localization predictions may be error-prone. This is particularly important in forensic applications in order to reduce false alarms and allow for a large scale analysis. Extensive experiments on several datasets show that our method is able to reliably detect and localize both cheapfakes and deepfakes manipulations outperforming state-of-the-art works. Code is publicly available at https://grip-unina.github.io/TruFor/

Long-horizon robotic manipulation poses significant challenges for autonomous systems, requiring extended reasoning, precise execution, and robust error recovery across complex sequential tasks. Current approaches, whether based on static planning or end-to-end visuomotor policies, suffer from error accumulation and lack effective verification mechanisms during execution, limiting their reliability in real-world scenarios. We present Agentic Robot, a brain-inspired framework that addresses these limitations through Standardized Action Procedures (SAP)--a novel coordination protocol governing component interactions throughout manipulation tasks. Drawing inspiration from Standardized Operating Procedures (SOPs) in human organizations, SAP establishes structured workflows for planning, execution, and verification phases. Our architecture comprises three specialized components: (1) a large reasoning model that decomposes high-level instructions into semantically coherent subgoals, (2) a vision-language-action executor that generates continuous control commands from real-time visual inputs, and (3) a temporal verifier that enables autonomous progression and error recovery through introspective assessment. This SAP-driven closed-loop design supports dynamic self-verification without external supervision. On the LIBERO benchmark, Agentic Robot achieves state-of-the-art performance with an average success rate of 79.6\%, outperforming SpatialVLA by 6.1\% and OpenVLA by 7.4\% on long-horizon tasks. These results demonstrate that SAP-driven coordination between specialized components enhances both performance and interpretability in sequential manipulation, suggesting significant potential for reliable autonomous systems. Project Github: https://agentic-robot.github.io.

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) standardizes how AI agents discover and invoke external tools, with over 10,000 active servers and 97 million monthly SDK downloads as of early 2026. Yet MCP does not yet standardize how agents safely operate those tools at production scale. Three protocol-level primitives remain missing: identity propagation, adaptive tool budgeting, and structured error semantics. This paper identifies these gaps through field lessons from an enterprise deployment of an AI agent platform integrated with a major cloud provider's MCP servers (client name redacted). We propose three mechanisms to fill them: (1) the Context-Aware Broker Protocol (CABP), which extends JSON-RPC with identity-scoped request routing via a six-stage broker pipeline; (2) Adaptive Timeout Budget Allocation (ATBA), which frames sequential tool invocation as a budget allocation problem over heterogeneous latency distributions; and (3) the Structured Error Recovery Framework (SERF), which provides machine-readable failure semantics that enable deterministic agent self-correction. We organize production failure modes into five design dimensions (server contracts, user context, timeouts, errors, and observability), document concrete failure vignettes, and present a production readiness checklist. All three algorithms are formalized as testable hypotheses with reproducible experimental methodology. Field observations demonstrate that while MCP provides a solid protocol foundation, reliable agent tool integration requires infrastructure-level mechanisms that the specification does not yet address.

Developing large language models is expensive and involves making decisions with small experiments, typically by evaluating on large, multi-task evaluation suites. In this work, we analyze specific properties which make a benchmark more reliable for such decisions, and interventions to design higher-quality evaluation benchmarks. We introduce two key metrics that show differences in current benchmarks: signal, a benchmark's ability to separate better models from worse models, and noise, a benchmark's sensitivity to random variability between training steps. We demonstrate that benchmarks with a better signal-to-noise ratio are more reliable when making decisions at small scale, and those with less noise have lower scaling law prediction error. These results suggest that improving signal or noise will lead to more useful benchmarks, so we introduce three interventions designed to directly affect signal or noise. For example, we propose that switching to a metric that has better signal and noise (e.g., perplexity rather than accuracy) leads to better reliability and improved scaling law error. We also find that filtering noisy subtasks, to improve an aggregate signal-to-noise ratio, leads to more reliable multi-task evaluations. We also find that averaging the output of a model's intermediate checkpoints to reduce noise leads to consistent improvements. We conclude by recommending that those creating new benchmarks, or selecting which existing benchmarks to use, aim for high signal and low noise. We use 30 benchmarks for these experiments, and 375 open-weight language models from 60M to 32B parameters, resulting in a new, publicly available dataset of 900K evaluation benchmark results, totaling 200M instances.

An increasing variety of AI accelerators is being considered for large-scale training. However, enabling large-scale training on early-life AI accelerators faces three core challenges: frequent system disruptions and undefined failure modes that undermine reliability; numerical errors and training instabilities that threaten correctness and convergence; and the complexity of parallelism optimization combined with unpredictable local noise that degrades efficiency. To address these challenges, SIGMA is an open-source training stack designed to improve the reliability, stability, and efficiency of large-scale distributed training on early-life AI hardware. The core of this initiative is the LUCIA TRAINING PLATFORM (LTP), the system optimized for clusters with early-life AI accelerators. Since its launch in March 2025, LTP has significantly enhanced training reliability and operational productivity. Over the past five months, it has achieved an impressive 94.45% effective cluster accelerator utilization, while also substantially reducing node recycling and job-recovery times. Building on the foundation of LTP, the LUCIA TRAINING FRAMEWORK (LTF) successfully trained SIGMA-MOE, a 200B MoE model, using 2,048 AI accelerators. This effort delivered remarkable stability and efficiency outcomes, achieving 21.08% MFU, state-of-the-art downstream accuracy, and encountering only one stability incident over a 75-day period. Together, these advances establish SIGMA, which not only tackles the critical challenges of large-scale training but also establishes a new benchmark for AI infrastructure and platform innovation, offering a robust, cost-effective alternative to prevailing established accelerator stacks and significantly advancing AI capabilities and scalability. The source code of SIGMA is available at https://github.com/microsoft/LuciaTrainingPlatform.

Medical multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are increasingly expected to perform complex image understanding tasks, yet their reliability is often compromised by frequent errors in visual interpretation. To systematically trace these failures, we traverse the hierarchy from high-level clinical tasks down to fundamental visual perception. We therefore introduce Perception-Bench, a large-scale benchmark comprising 1.13 million samples that assesses medical MLLMs across six dimensions: attribute judgment, spatial grounding, spatial understanding, disease prediction, anomaly detection, and report generation, spanning both 2D and 3D radiology images. Our analysis on Perception-Bench reveals that existing MLLMs lack the ability to capture even the most basic lesion attributes, such as location, size, and density. This inability to ground clinical outputs in primary visual evidence reveals that the models' diagnostic unreliability is rooted in a critical but overlooked bottleneck in low-level visual perception. Motivated by this, we propose RadSight, a perception-driven MLLM built upon a dual 2D/3D encoder architecture that preserves native imaging spatial structures. RadSight formulates medical image understanding as a four-stage progressive process: visual-language alignment, fine-grained visual perception, clinical diagnosis, and diagnostic interpretation. The model is trained on an 8.37 million perception-oriented corpus using progressive curriculum learning. On Perception-Bench, RadSight consistently outperforms existing MLLMs across all six evaluation dimensions, with particularly strong gains in spatial grounding and clinical diagnosis. It also achieves consistent improvements on public 2D and 3D medical benchmarks, further demonstrating that robust low-level visual perception is a critical foundation for reliable clinical understanding. Code and model will be publicly available.

Transformer architectures have revolutionized artificial intelligence (AI) through their attention mechanisms, yet the computational principles underlying their success remain opaque. We present a novel theoretical framework that reinterprets the core computation of attention as Pavlovian conditioning. Our model finds a direct mathematical analogue in linear attention, which simplifies the analysis of the underlying associative process. We demonstrate that attention's queries, keys, and values can be mapped to the three elements of classical conditioning: test stimuli that probe associations, conditional stimuli (CS) that serve as retrieval cues, and unconditional stimuli (US) that contain response information. Through this lens, we suggest that each attention operation constructs a transient associative memory via a Hebbian rule, where CS-US pairs form dynamic associations that test stimuli can later retrieve. Our framework yields several theoretical insights grounded in this linearized model: (1) a capacity theorem showing that attention heads can store O(d_k) associations before interference degrades retrieval; (2) an error propagation analysis revealing fundamental architectural trade-offs of balancing model depth, width, and head redundancy to maintain reliability; and (3) an understanding of how biologically plausible learning rules could enhance transformer architectures. By establishing this deep connection, we suggest that the success of modern AI may stem not from architectural novelty alone, but from implementing computational principles that biology optimized over millions of years of evolution.

Modern AI agents rely on elaborate inference harnesses such as Claude Code, Codex, and OpenClaw to drive multi-turn reasoning, tool use, and access to external systems. While powerful, these complex harnesses also make agents hard to train end-to-end with open infrastructure, whose SFT/RL stacks cannot natively express stateful, multi-process harness inference. To address this, we present OpenForgeRL, an open-source framework for training harness-based agents end-to-end in diverse environments. OpenForgeRL achieves this with a lightweight proxy that serves the harness's model calls while recording them as training data for a standard RL codebase (e.g., veRL), and a Kubernetes orchestrator that runs each rollout in its own remote container, together enabling training on any harness in any environment at scale. By decoupling training and inference, OpenForgeRL allows researchers to easily train, study, and improve agents directly in the real harnesses and environments they are deployed with. We validate our framework across diverse, complex harnesses and environments, spanning tool/claw-based agents and multimodal GUI browser- and computer-use agents. Using only hundreds to a few thousand tasks, OpenForgeClaw reaches 31.7 pass^3 and 55.9 pass@3 on ClawEval and 33.7 on QwenClawBench. OpenForgeGUI reaches 37.7 on OSWorld-Verified, 63.0 on Online-Mind2Web, and 72.3 on WebVoyager. Both outperform open baselines of similar size on nearly all benchmarks, and in the GUI setting match or surpass models several times larger. Beyond benchmarks, we analyze how harness choice (e.g., ZeroClaw, OpenClaw, Codex) and RL shape agent behavior. We find that some harnesses are substantially harder to learn than others, and that RL improves agentic reliability, such as self-verification, tool coverage, and completing multi-step plans, though critical abilities such as error recovery remain weak.

Verifying the success of computer use agent (CUA) trajectories is a critical challenge: without reliable verification, neither evaluation nor training signal can be trusted. In this paper, we present lessons learned from building a best-in-class verifier for web tasks we call the Universal Verifier. We design the Universal Verifier around four key principles: 1) constructing rubrics with meaningful, non-overlapping criteria to reduce noise; 2) separating process and outcome rewards that yield complementary signals, capturing cases where an agent follows the right steps but gets blocked or succeeds through an unexpected path; 3) distinguishing between controllable and uncontrollable failures scored via a cascading-error-free strategy for finer-grained failure understanding; and 4) a divide-and-conquer context management scheme that attends to all screenshots in a trajectory, improving reliability on longer task horizons. We validate these findings on CUAVerifierBench, a new set of CUA trajectories with both process and outcome human labels, showing that our Universal Verifier agrees with humans as often as humans agree with each other. We report a reduction in false positive rates to near zero compared to baselines like WebVoyager (geq 45\%) and WebJudge (geq 22\%). We emphasize that these gains stem from the cumulative effect of the design choices above. We also find that an auto-research agent achieves 70\% of expert quality in 5\% of the time, but fails to discover all strategies required to replicate the Universal Verifier. We open-source our Universal Verifier system along with CUAVerifierBench; available at https://github.com/microsoft/fara.

Large language models (LLMs) show impressive abilities via few-shot prompting. Commercialized APIs such as OpenAI GPT-3 further increase their use in real-world language applications. However, the crucial problem of how to improve the reliability of GPT-3 is still under-explored. While reliability is a broad and vaguely defined term, we decompose reliability into four main facets that correspond to the existing framework of ML safety and are well-recognized to be important: generalizability, social biases, calibration, and factuality. Our core contribution is to establish simple and effective prompts that improve GPT-3's reliability as it: 1) generalizes out-of-distribution, 2) balances demographic distribution and uses natural language instructions to reduce social biases, 3) calibrates output probabilities, and 4) updates the LLM's factual knowledge and reasoning chains. With appropriate prompts, GPT-3 is more reliable than smaller-scale supervised models on all these facets. We release all processed datasets, evaluation scripts, and model predictions. Our systematic empirical study not only sheds new insights on the reliability of prompting LLMs, but more importantly, our prompting strategies can help practitioners more reliably use LLMs like GPT-3.

A decision model can give probabilities that sum to one for every question yet disagree with itself when the same decision is broken into smaller steps. We study this form of probabilistic coherence in Jev and the English Laya checkpoint, using 2,500 matched examples per system across TREC, CLINC150, and MASSIVE. Across 72,000 classification questions, we compare direct fine-label predictions with broad-category probabilities and predictions reconstructed through those categories. Both systems show substantial disagreement: mean category-level total variation ranges from 0.219 to 0.349 for Jev and from 0.424 to 0.689 for Laya, on a scale where zero means exact agreement. The consequences differ sharply. On CLINC150, reconstruction reduces Jev's accuracy by 22.9 percentage points (paired 95% bootstrap interval: [-24.9, -20.9]) and improves Laya's by 21.3 points ([18.0, 24.5]). The same directions hold across all three datasets, with all six unadjusted accuracy-change intervals excluding zero. Improved accuracy can also accompany less reliable confidence: on MASSIVE, Laya gains 9.2 accuracy points while its expected calibration error rises from 0.046 to 0.124. Error analysis identifies both broad-category mistakes and within-category confusions. These findings show why decision systems need joint evaluation of accuracy, confidence calibration, and probability coherence in the workflow used by an application.

Software developers attempt to reproduce software bugs to understand their erroneous behaviours and to fix them. Unfortunately, they often fail to reproduce (or fix) them, which leads to faulty, unreliable software systems. However, to date, only a little research has been done to better understand what makes the software bugs non-reproducible. In this paper, we conduct a multimodal study to better understand the non-reproducibility of software bugs. First, we perform an empirical study using 576 non-reproducible bug reports from two popular software systems (Firefox, Eclipse) and identify 11 key factors that might lead a reported bug to non-reproducibility. Second, we conduct a user study involving 13 professional developers where we investigate how the developers cope with non-reproducible bugs. We found that they either close these bugs or solicit for further information, which involves long deliberations and counter-productive manual searches. Third, we offer several actionable insights on how to avoid non-reproducibility (e.g., false-positive bug report detector) and improve reproducibility of the reported bugs (e.g., sandbox for bug reproduction) by combining our analyses from multiple studies (e.g., empirical study, developer study).

Direct-decision models turn text into low-latency structured labels and scores, making them attractive for classification and automatic evaluation. Yet reliability requires more than accuracy: a model must also use the ordinal decision scale supplied by the user faithfully. We analyze JEV~1.13 and three open KEV models. Our investigation begins with ANLI, where JEV assigns 38.8\% of all predictions and 51.3\% of errors to Neutral despite 74.95\% accuracy, nearly balanced gold labels, and balanced candidate positions. Across 36 ordinal datasets, final decisions use only 67--76\% of the effective gold support, versus 87--102\% on four nominal tasks. Randomizing candidate order weakens but does not remove this compression. Holding items and source scores fixed while balancing gold support and positions, we refine scales from K=2 to 14; utilization falls for every model and reaches 26--75\% at K=14, although candidate probabilities remain broad for most models. Targeted BA-LoRA post-training raises gold-relative utilization from roughly 47\% to 86\% on eight supervised scales at both KEV sizes, showing that the compression is learned and modifiable rather than an immutable architectural limit. We call this ordinal scale-utilization bias: decision-stage candidate-space compression distinct from accuracy, gold imbalance, fixed position, and candidate count alone. The code and data are available at https://github.com/Glax147/jev_ordinal_scale_bia

Large language models (LLMs) can call tools effectively, yet they remain brittle in multi-turn execution: following a tool call error, smaller models often degenerate into repetitive invalid re-invocations, failing to interpret error feedback and self-correct. This brittleness hinders reliable real-world deployment, where the execution errors are inherently inevitable during tool interaction procedures. We identify a key limitation of current approaches: standard reinforcement learning (RL) treats errors as sparse negative rewards, providing no guidance on how to recover, while pre-collected synthetic error-correction datasets suffer from distribution mismatch with the model's on-policy error modes. To bridge this gap, we propose Fission-GRPO, a framework that converts execution errors into corrective supervision within the RL training loop. Our core mechanism fissions each failed trajectory into a new training instance by augmenting it with diagnostic feedback from a finetuned Error Simulator, then resampling recovery rollouts on-policy. This enables the model to learn from the precise errors it makes during exploration, rather than from static, pre-collected error cases. On the BFCL v4 Multi-Turn, Fission-GRPO improves the error recovery rate of Qwen3-8B by 5.7% absolute, crucially, yielding a 4% overall accuracy gain (42.75% to 46.75%) over GRPO and outperforming specialized tool-use agents.