Daily Papers

Current audio language models are predominantly text-first, either extending pre-trained text LLM backbones or relying on semantic-only audio tokens, limiting general audio modeling. This paper presents a systematic empirical study of native audio foundation models that apply next-token prediction to audio at scale, jointly modeling semantic content, acoustic details, and text to support both general audio generation and cross-modal capabilities. We provide comprehensive empirical insights for building such models: (1) We systematically investigate design choices -- data sources, text mixture ratios, and token composition -- establishing a validated training recipe. (2) We conduct the first scaling law study for discrete audio models via IsoFLOP analysis on 64 models spanning 3{times}10^{18} to 3{times}10^{20} FLOPs, finding that optimal data grows 1.6times faster than optimal model size. (3) We apply these lessons to train SODA (Scaling Open Discrete Audio), a suite of models from 135M to 4B parameters on 500B tokens, comparing against our scaling predictions and existing models. SODA serves as a flexible backbone for diverse audio/text tasks -- we demonstrate this by fine-tuning for voice-preserving speech-to-speech translation, using the same unified architecture.

Recent advancements in Reinforcement Post-Training (RPT) have significantly enhanced the capabilities of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), sparking increased interest in the generalization of RL-based reasoning. While existing work has primarily focused on investigating its generalization across tasks or modalities, this study proposes a novel cross-linguistic perspective to investigate reasoning generalization. This raises a crucial question: Does the reasoning capability achieved from English RPT effectively transfer to other languages? We address this by systematically evaluating English-centric LRMs on multilingual reasoning benchmarks and introducing a metric to quantify cross-lingual transferability. Our findings reveal that cross-lingual transferability varies significantly across initial model, target language, and training paradigm. Through interventional studies, we find that models with stronger initial English capabilities tend to over-rely on English-specific patterns, leading to diminished cross-lingual generalization. To address this, we conduct a thorough parallel training study. Experimental results yield three key findings: First-Parallel Leap, a substantial leap in performance when transitioning from monolingual to just a single parallel language, and a predictable Parallel Scaling Law, revealing that cross-lingual reasoning transfer follows a power-law with the number of training parallel languages. Moreover, we identify the discrepancy between actual monolingual performance and the power-law prediction as Monolingual Generalization Gap, indicating that English-centric LRMs fail to fully generalize across languages. Our study challenges the assumption that LRM reasoning mirrors human cognition, providing critical insights for the development of more language-agnostic LRMs.

The impressive capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse tasks are now well-established, yet their effective deployment necessitates careful hyperparameter optimization. Through extensive empirical studies involving grid searches across diverse configurations, we discover universal scaling laws governing these hyperparameters: optimal learning rate follows a power-law relationship with both model parameters and data sizes, while optimal batch size scales primarily with data sizes. Our analysis reveals a convex optimization landscape for hyperparameters under fixed models and data size conditions. This convexity implies an optimal hyperparameter plateau. We contribute a universal, plug-and-play optimal hyperparameter tool for the community. Its estimated values on the test set are merely 0.07\% away from the globally optimal LLM performance found via an exhaustive search. These laws demonstrate remarkable robustness across variations in model sparsity, training data distribution, and model shape. To our best known, this is the first work that unifies different model shapes and structures, such as Mixture-of-Experts models and dense transformers, as well as establishes optimal hyperparameter scaling laws across diverse data distributions. This exhaustive optimization process demands substantial computational resources, utilizing nearly one million NVIDIA H800 GPU hours to train 3,700 LLMs of varying sizes and hyperparameters from scratch and consuming approximately 100 trillion tokens in total. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we will progressively release all loss measurements and model checkpoints through our designated repository https://step-law.github.io/

Continual Pre-Training (CPT) on Large Language Models (LLMs) has been widely used to expand the model's fundamental understanding of specific downstream domains (e.g., math and code). For the CPT on domain-specific LLMs, one important question is how to choose the optimal mixture ratio between the general-corpus (e.g., Dolma, Slim-pajama) and the downstream domain-corpus. Existing methods usually adopt laborious human efforts by grid-searching on a set of mixture ratios, which require high GPU training consumption costs. Besides, we cannot guarantee the selected ratio is optimal for the specific domain. To address the limitations of existing methods, inspired by the Scaling Law for performance prediction, we propose to investigate the Scaling Law of the Domain-specific Continual Pre-Training (D-CPT Law) to decide the optimal mixture ratio with acceptable training costs for LLMs of different sizes. Specifically, by fitting the D-CPT Law, we can easily predict the general and downstream performance of arbitrary mixture ratios, model sizes, and dataset sizes using small-scale training costs on limited experiments. Moreover, we also extend our standard D-CPT Law on cross-domain settings and propose the Cross-Domain D-CPT Law to predict the D-CPT law of target domains, where very small training costs (about 1% of the normal training costs) are needed for the target domains. Comprehensive experimental results on six downstream domains demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of our proposed D-CPT Law and Cross-Domain D-CPT Law.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

We provide a distillation scaling law that estimates distilled model performance based on a compute budget and its allocation between the student and teacher. Our findings reduce the risks associated with using distillation at scale; compute allocation for both the teacher and student models can now be done to maximize student performance. We provide compute optimal distillation recipes for when 1) a teacher exists, or 2) a teacher needs training. If many students are to be distilled, or a teacher already exists, distillation outperforms supervised pretraining until a compute level which grows predictably with student size. If one student is to be distilled and a teacher also needs training, supervised learning should be done instead. Additionally, we provide insights across our large scale study of distillation, which increase our understanding of distillation and inform experimental design.

In current deep learning tasks, Adam style optimizers such as Adam, Adagrad, RMSProp, Adafactor, and Lion have been widely used as alternatives to SGD style optimizers. These optimizers typically update model parameters using the sign of gradients, resulting in more stable convergence curves. The learning rate and the batch size are the most critical hyperparameters for optimizers, which require careful tuning to enable effective convergence. Previous research has shown that the optimal learning rate increases linearly or follows similar rules with batch size for SGD style optimizers. However, this conclusion is not applicable to Adam style optimizers. In this paper, we elucidate the connection between optimal learning rates and batch sizes for Adam style optimizers through both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments. First, we raise the scaling law between batch sizes and optimal learning rates in the sign of gradient case, in which we prove that the optimal learning rate first rises and then falls as the batch size increases. Moreover, the peak value of the surge will gradually move toward the larger batch size as training progresses. Second, we conducted experiments on various CV and NLP tasks and verified the correctness of the scaling law.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

Scaling laws research has focused overwhelmingly on English -- yet the most prominent AI models explicitly serve billions of international users. In this work, we undertake the largest multilingual scaling laws study to date, totaling 774 multilingual training experiments, spanning 10M-8B model parameters, 400+ training languages and 48 evaluation languages. We introduce the Adaptive Transfer Scaling Law (ATLAS) for both monolingual and multilingual pretraining, which outperforms existing scaling laws' out-of-sample generalization often by more than 0.3 R^2. Our analyses of the experiments shed light on multilingual learning dynamics, transfer properties between languages, and the curse of multilinguality. First, we derive a cross-lingual transfer matrix, empirically measuring mutual benefit scores between 38 x 38=1444 language pairs. Second, we derive a language-agnostic scaling law that reveals how to optimally scale model size and data when adding languages without sacrificing performance. Third, we identify the computational crossover points for when to pretrain from scratch versus finetune from multilingual checkpoints. We hope these findings provide the scientific foundation for democratizing scaling laws across languages, and enable practitioners to efficiently scale models -- beyond English-first AI.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive performance in diverse applications, yet they face significant drawbacks, including high inference latency, expensive training cost, and generation of hallucination. Collaborative decoding between large and small language models (SLMs) offers a novel approach to address these challenges. Inspired by dual-process cognitive theory, we integrate these methods into a unified framework termed Fast and Slow Generating (FS-GEN). This paper explores several techniques within the FS-GEN framework, including speculative decoding, contrastive decoding, and emulator or proxy fine-tuning. We provide a comprehensive analysis of these methodologies, offering insights into their similarities and differences under this framework. Our study delves into the differential knowledge capabilities of LLMs versus SLMs through the FS-GEN lens, revealing that fewer than 20% of collaborative interactions are required across various methods. These interactions adhere to a scaling law relative to the parameter ratios, thereby facilitating predictable collaboration. Furthermore, we investigate the specific positions where collaboration is most effective from an uncertainty perspective, yielding novel insights that could refine FS-GEN methods. Our findings reveal that the essential difference between models of different sizes lies in the uncertainty of the next token prediction, where interventions by larger models are most needed to assist the smaller ones. Code for Reproduction: https://github.com/TsinghuaC3I/FS-GEN

Pioneering advancements in large language model-powered agents have underscored the design pattern of multi-agent collaboration, demonstrating that collective intelligence can surpass the capabilities of each individual. Inspired by the neural scaling law, which posits that increasing neurons leads to emergent abilities, this study investigates whether a similar principle applies to increasing agents in multi-agent collaboration. Technically, we propose multi-agent collaboration networks (MacNet), which utilize directed acyclic graphs to organize agents and streamline their interactive reasoning via topological ordering, with solutions derived from their dialogues. Extensive experiments show that MacNet consistently outperforms baseline models, enabling effective agent collaboration across various network topologies and supporting cooperation among more than a thousand agents. Notably, we observed a small-world collaboration phenomenon, where topologies resembling small-world properties achieved superior performance. Additionally, we identified a collaborative scaling law, indicating that normalized solution quality follows a logistic growth pattern as scaling agents, with collaborative emergence occurring much earlier than previously observed instances of neural emergence. The code and data will be available at https://github.com/OpenBMB/ChatDev.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

Previous work has shown that there exists a scaling law between the size of Language Models (LMs) and their zero-shot performance on different downstream NLP tasks. In this work, we show that this phenomenon does not hold when evaluating large LMs on tasks with negated prompts, but instead shows an inverse scaling law. We evaluate 9 different tasks with negated prompts on (1) pretrained LMs (OPT & GPT-3) of varying sizes (125M - 175B), (2) LMs further pretrained to generalize to novel prompts (InstructGPT), (3) LMs provided with few-shot examples, and (4) LMs fine-tuned specifically on negated prompts; all LM types perform worse on negated prompts as they scale and show a huge performance gap between the human performance when comparing the average score on both original and negated prompts. By highlighting a critical limitation of existing LMs and methods, we urge the community to develop new approaches of developing LMs that actually follow the given instructions. We provide the code and the datasets to explore negated prompts at https://github.com/joeljang/negated-prompts-for-llms

As we scale to more massive machine learning models, the frequent synchronization demands inherent in data-parallel approaches create significant slowdowns, posing a critical challenge to further scaling. Recent work develops an approach (DiLoCo) that relaxes synchronization demands without compromising model quality. However, these works do not carefully analyze how DiLoCo's behavior changes with model size. In this work, we study the scaling law behavior of DiLoCo when training LLMs under a fixed compute budget. We focus on how algorithmic factors, including number of model replicas, hyperparameters, and token budget affect training in ways that can be accurately predicted via scaling laws. We find that DiLoCo scales both predictably and robustly with model size. When well-tuned, DiLoCo scales better than data-parallel training with model size, and can outperform data-parallel training even at small model sizes. Our results showcase a more general set of benefits of DiLoCo than previously documented, including increased optimal batch sizes, improved downstream generalization with scale, and improved evaluation loss for a fixed token budget.

Expressive human pose and shape estimation (EHPS) unifies body, hands, and face motion capture with numerous applications. Despite encouraging progress, current state-of-the-art methods still depend largely on a confined set of training datasets. In this work, we investigate scaling up EHPS towards the first generalist foundation model (dubbed SMPLer-X), with up to ViT-Huge as the backbone and training with up to 4.5M instances from diverse data sources. With big data and the large model, SMPLer-X exhibits strong performance across diverse test benchmarks and excellent transferability to even unseen environments. 1) For the data scaling, we perform a systematic investigation on 32 EHPS datasets, including a wide range of scenarios that a model trained on any single dataset cannot handle. More importantly, capitalizing on insights obtained from the extensive benchmarking process, we optimize our training scheme and select datasets that lead to a significant leap in EHPS capabilities. 2) For the model scaling, we take advantage of vision transformers to study the scaling law of model sizes in EHPS. Moreover, our finetuning strategy turn SMPLer-X into specialist models, allowing them to achieve further performance boosts. Notably, our foundation model SMPLer-X consistently delivers state-of-the-art results on seven benchmarks such as AGORA (107.2 mm NMVE), UBody (57.4 mm PVE), EgoBody (63.6 mm PVE), and EHF (62.3 mm PVE without finetuning). Homepage: https://caizhongang.github.io/projects/SMPLer-X/

Expressive human pose and shape estimation (EHPS) unifies body, hands, and face motion capture with numerous applications. Despite encouraging progress, current state-of-the-art methods focus on training innovative architectural designs on confined datasets. In this work, we investigate the impact of scaling up EHPS towards a family of generalist foundation models. 1) For data scaling, we perform a systematic investigation on 40 EHPS datasets, encompassing a wide range of scenarios that a model trained on any single dataset cannot handle. More importantly, capitalizing on insights obtained from the extensive benchmarking process, we optimize our training scheme and select datasets that lead to a significant leap in EHPS capabilities. Ultimately, we achieve diminishing returns at 10M training instances from diverse data sources. 2) For model scaling, we take advantage of vision transformers (up to ViT-Huge as the backbone) to study the scaling law of model sizes in EHPS. To exclude the influence of algorithmic design, we base our experiments on two minimalist architectures: SMPLer-X, which consists of an intermediate step for hand and face localization, and SMPLest-X, an even simpler version that reduces the network to its bare essentials and highlights significant advances in the capture of articulated hands. With big data and the large model, the foundation models exhibit strong performance across diverse test benchmarks and excellent transferability to even unseen environments. Moreover, our finetuning strategy turns the generalist into specialist models, allowing them to achieve further performance boosts. Notably, our foundation models consistently deliver state-of-the-art results on seven benchmarks such as AGORA, UBody, EgoBody, and our proposed SynHand dataset for comprehensive hand evaluation. (Code is available at: https://github.com/wqyin/SMPLest-X).

Continual Pre-Training (CPT) has become a popular and effective method to apply strong foundation models to specific downstream tasks. In this work, we explore the learning dynamics throughout the CPT process for large language models. We specifically focus on how general and downstream domain performance evolves at each training step, with domain performance measured via validation losses. We have observed that the CPT loss curve fundamentally characterizes the transition from one curve to another hidden curve, and could be described by decoupling the effects of distribution shift and learning rate annealing. We derive a CPT scaling law that combines the two factors, enabling the prediction of loss at any (continual) training steps and across learning rate schedules (LRS) in CPT. Our formulation presents a comprehensive understanding of several critical factors in CPT, including loss potential, peak learning rate, training steps, replay ratio, etc. Moreover, our approach can be adapted to customize training hyper-parameters to different CPT goals such as balancing general and domain-specific performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our scaling law holds across various CPT datasets and training hyper-parameters.

Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) based large language models (LLMs), such as the recent Mixtral and DeepSeek-MoE, have shown great promise in scaling model size without suffering from the quadratic growth of training cost of dense transformers. Like dense models, training MoEs requires answering the same question: given a training budget, what is the optimal allocation on the model size and number of tokens? We study the scaling law of MoE-based LLMs regarding the relations between the model performance, model size, dataset size, and the expert degree. Echoing previous research studying MoE in different contexts, we observe the diminishing return of increasing the number of experts, but this seems to suggest we should scale the number of experts until saturation, as the training cost would remain constant, which is problematic during inference time. We propose to amend the scaling law of MoE by introducing inference efficiency as another metric besides the validation loss. We find that MoEs with a few (4/8) experts are the most serving efficient solution under the same performance, but costs 2.5-3.5x more in training. On the other hand, training a (16/32) expert MoE much smaller (70-85%) than the loss-optimal solution, but with a larger training dataset is a promising setup under a training budget.

In the pursuit of superior video-processing MLLMs, we have encountered a perplexing paradox: the "anti-scaling law", where more data and larger models lead to worse performance. This study unmasks the culprit: "temporal hacking", a phenomenon where models shortcut by fixating on select frames, missing the full video narrative. In this work, we systematically establish a comprehensive theory of temporal hacking, defining it from a reinforcement learning perspective, introducing the Temporal Perplexity (TPL) score to assess this misalignment, and proposing the Unhackable Temporal Rewarding (UTR) framework to mitigate the temporal hacking. Both theoretically and empirically, TPL proves to be a reliable indicator of temporal modeling quality, correlating strongly with frame activation patterns. Extensive experiments reveal that UTR not only counters temporal hacking but significantly elevates video comprehension capabilities. This work not only advances video-AI systems but also illuminates the critical importance of aligning proxy rewards with true objectives in MLLM development.

We introduce Quokka, the first systematic scaling law for diffusion language models (DLMs), encompassing both compute-constrained and data-constrained regimes, and studying the key modeling and optimization designs. Quokka is a good friend of Chinchilla and provides wider scopes. We hope the results would bring short-term practical guidance in DLMs training and long-term inspirations for the whole AI community.

The burgeoning interest in developing Large Language Models (LLMs) with up to trillion parameters has been met with concerns regarding resource efficiency and practical expense, particularly given the immense cost of experimentation. This scenario underscores the importance of exploring the potential of Small Language Models (SLMs) as a resource-efficient alternative. In this context, we introduce MiniCPM, specifically the 1.2B and 2.4B non-embedding parameter variants, not only excel in their respective categories but also demonstrate capabilities on par with 7B-13B LLMs. While focusing on SLMs, our approach exhibits scalability in both model and data dimensions for future LLM research. Regarding model scaling, we employ extensive model wind tunnel experiments for stable and optimal scaling. For data scaling, we introduce a Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) learning rate scheduler (LRS), conducive to continuous training and domain adaptation. We present an in-depth analysis of the intriguing training dynamics that occurred in the WSD LRS. With WSD LRS, we are now able to efficiently study data-model scaling law without extensive retraining experiments on both axes of model and data, from which we derive the much higher compute optimal data-model ratio than Chinchilla Optimal. Additionally, we introduce MiniCPM family, including MiniCPM-DPO, MiniCPM-MoE and MiniCPM-128K, whose excellent performance further cementing MiniCPM's foundation in diverse SLM applications. MiniCPM models are available publicly at https://github.com/OpenBMB/MiniCPM .

Large Language Models (LLM) often needs to be Continual Pre-Trained (CPT) to obtain the unfamiliar language skill or adapt into new domains. The huge training cost of CPT often asks for cautious choice of key hyper-parameters such as the mixture ratio of extra language or domain corpus. However, there is no systematic study which bridge the gap between the optimal mixture ratio and the actual model performance, and the gap between experimental scaling law and the actual deployment in the full model size. In this paper, we perform CPT on Llama-3 8B and 70B to enhance its Chinese ability. We study the optimal correlation between the Additional Language Mixture Ratio (ALMR) and the Learning Rate (LR) on the 8B size which directly indicate the optimal experimental set up. By thorough choice of hyper-parameter, and subsequent fine-tuning, the model capability is improved not only on the Chinese-related benchmark, but also some specific domains including math, coding and emotional intelligence. We deploy the final 70B version of LLM on an real-life chat system which obtain satisfying performance.

Synthetic data generation has become an increasingly popular way of training models without the need for large, manually labeled datasets. For tasks like text embedding, synthetic data offers diverse and scalable training examples, significantly reducing the cost of human annotation. However, most current approaches rely heavily on proprietary models like GPT-4, which are expensive and inefficient for generating large-scale embedding data. In this paper, we introduce SPEED, a framework that aligns open-source small models (8B) to efficiently generate large-scale synthetic embedding data. Through supervised fine-tuning, preference optimization, and self-improvement, SPEED enables small open-source models to produce high-quality data. Remarkably, SPEED uses only less than 1/10 of the GPT API calls, outperforming the state-of-the-art embedding model E5_mistral when both are trained solely on their synthetic data. Using this efficient generator, we conduct a comprehensive study on how various factors within the alignment pipeline impact data quality and reveal the scaling law for synthetic embedding data.

Widely observed neural scaling laws, in which error falls off as a power of the training set size, model size, or both, have driven substantial performance improvements in deep learning. However, these improvements through scaling alone require considerable costs in compute and energy. Here we focus on the scaling of error with dataset size and show how in theory we can break beyond power law scaling and potentially even reduce it to exponential scaling instead if we have access to a high-quality data pruning metric that ranks the order in which training examples should be discarded to achieve any pruned dataset size. We then test this improved scaling prediction with pruned dataset size empirically, and indeed observe better than power law scaling in practice on ResNets trained on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and ImageNet. Next, given the importance of finding high-quality pruning metrics, we perform the first large-scale benchmarking study of ten different data pruning metrics on ImageNet. We find most existing high performing metrics scale poorly to ImageNet, while the best are computationally intensive and require labels for every image. We therefore developed a new simple, cheap and scalable self-supervised pruning metric that demonstrates comparable performance to the best supervised metrics. Overall, our work suggests that the discovery of good data-pruning metrics may provide a viable path forward to substantially improved neural scaling laws, thereby reducing the resource costs of modern deep learning.

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

While scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) during pre-training have been extensively studied, their behavior under reinforcement learning (RL) post-training remains largely unexplored. This paper presents a systematic empirical investigation of scaling behaviors in RL-based post-training, with a particular focus on mathematical reasoning. Based on a set of experiments across the full Qwen2.5 dense model series (0.5B to 72B), we characterize how model scale, data volume, and computational budget interact to shape performance. Our analysis leads to four key findings: 1.Larger models consistently exhibit superior learning efficiency on both compute and data metrics. 2.The relationship between test loss, compute, and data can be modeled by a predictive power-law which is robust across both base and instruction-tuned models. 3.Although larger models exhibit higher learning efficiency, the analytical learning efficiency term k(N) in the power-law reveals a latent saturation trend in learning efficiency as model size continues to increase. 4.In data-constrained regimes, repeated reuse of high-quality data proves highly effective, as final performance is primarily governed by the total number of optimization steps rather than the uniqueness of samples. Collectively, these results provide a principled foundation and practical guidelines for efficiently scaling the reasoning capabilities of LLMs through RL post-training.

OpenAI's Sora highlights the potential of video generation for developing world models that adhere to fundamental physical laws. However, the ability of video generation models to discover such laws purely from visual data without human priors can be questioned. A world model learning the true law should give predictions robust to nuances and correctly extrapolate on unseen scenarios. In this work, we evaluate across three key scenarios: in-distribution, out-of-distribution, and combinatorial generalization. We developed a 2D simulation testbed for object movement and collisions to generate videos deterministically governed by one or more classical mechanics laws. This provides an unlimited supply of data for large-scale experimentation and enables quantitative evaluation of whether the generated videos adhere to physical laws. We trained diffusion-based video generation models to predict object movements based on initial frames. Our scaling experiments show perfect generalization within the distribution, measurable scaling behavior for combinatorial generalization, but failure in out-of-distribution scenarios. Further experiments reveal two key insights about the generalization mechanisms of these models: (1) the models fail to abstract general physical rules and instead exhibit "case-based" generalization behavior, i.e., mimicking the closest training example; (2) when generalizing to new cases, models are observed to prioritize different factors when referencing training data: color > size > velocity > shape. Our study suggests that scaling alone is insufficient for video generation models to uncover fundamental physical laws, despite its role in Sora's broader success. See our project page at https://phyworld.github.io

Activation sparsity denotes the existence of substantial weakly-contributed elements within activation outputs that can be eliminated, benefiting many important applications concerned with large language models (LLMs). Although promoting greater activation sparsity within LLMs deserves deep studies, existing works lack comprehensive and quantitative research on the correlation between activation sparsity and potentially influential factors. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study on the quantitative scaling properties and influential factors of the activation sparsity within decoder-only Transformer-based LLMs. Specifically, we propose PPL-p% sparsity, a precise and performance-aware activation sparsity metric that is applicable to any activation function. Through extensive experiments, we find several important phenomena. Firstly, different activation functions exhibit comparable performance but opposite training-time sparsity trends. The activation ratio (i.e., 1-sparsity ratio) evolves as a convergent increasing power-law and decreasing logspace power-law with the amount of training data for SiLU-activated and ReLU-activated LLMs, respectively. These demonstrate that ReLU is more efficient as the activation function than SiLU and can leverage more training data to improve activation sparsity. Secondly, the activation ratio linearly increases with the width-depth ratio below a certain bottleneck point, indicating the potential advantage of a deeper architecture at a fixed parameter scale. Finally, at similar width-depth ratios, we surprisingly find that the limit value of activation sparsity varies weakly with the parameter scale, i.e., the activation patterns within LLMs are insensitive to the parameter scale. These empirical laws towards LLMs with greater activation sparsity have important implications for making LLMs more efficient and interpretable.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable reasoning capabilities in tasks such as algorithmic coding and mathematical problem-solving. Recent methods have improved reasoning through expanded corpus and multistage training combining reinforcement learning and supervised fine-tuning. Although some methods suggest that small but targeted dataset can incentivize reasoning via only distillation, a reasoning scaling laws is still taking shape, increasing computational costs. To address this, we propose a data-efficient distillation framework (DED) that optimizes the Pareto frontier of reasoning distillation. Inspired by the on-policy learning and diverse roll-out strategies of reinforcement learning, the key idea of our approach is threefold: (1) We identify that benchmark scores alone do not determine an effective teacher model. Through comprehensive comparisons of leading reasoning LLMs, we develop a method to select an optimal teacher model. (2) While scaling distillation can enhance reasoning, it often degrades out-of-domain performance. A carefully curated, smaller corpus achieves a balanced trade-off between in-domain and out-of-domain capabilities. (3) Diverse reasoning trajectories encourage the student model to develop robust reasoning skills. We validate our method through evaluations on mathematical reasoning (AIME 2024/2025, MATH-500) and code generation (LiveCodeBench), achieving state-of-the-art results with only 0.8k carefully curated examples, bypassing the need for extensive scaling. Our systematic analysis demonstrates that DED outperforms existing methods by considering factors beyond superficial hardness, token length, or teacher model capability. This work offers a practical and efficient pathway to advanced reasoning while preserving general capabilities.

We find that the cross-entropy loss curves of neural language models empirically adhere to a scaling law with learning rate (LR) annealing over training steps (s): $L(s) = L_0 + Acdot S_1^{-alpha} - Ccdot S_2 Where S_1 is forward area and S_2$ is learning rate annealing area. This formulation takes into account two factors: (1) The forward scaling defined as typical scaling law, and (2) the additional loss drop brought by LR annealing. Therefore, this formulation can describe the full loss curve at each step, rather than the single loss point at the end of training. Applying the scaling law with LR annealing and fitting only one or two training curves, we can accurately predict the loss of language model training at any given step and across any learning rate scheduler (LRS). Furthermore, this equation accurately describes the dynamics during training process, and provides a theoretical verification and explanation for numerous experimental findings of previous studies, particularly those focusing on LR schedule and LR annealing. The resulting insights, also serve as a guide for researchers to select critical LRS in advance by prediction using our equation. Most significantly, since all the points in a full training curve follow the equation, we can achieve accurate loss prediction at any given step across any learning rate scheduler, while expending less than 1\% of the computational cost required by the chinchilla scaling law to fit language modeling loss. This approach extremely democratizes scaling law fitting and predicting in developing large language models.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) is prohibitively expensive, creating a critical scaling gap where insights from small-scale experiments often fail to transfer to resource-intensive production systems, thereby hindering efficient innovation. To bridge this, we introduce Farseer, a novel and refined scaling law offering enhanced predictive accuracy across scales. By systematically constructing a model loss surface L(N,D), Farseer achieves a significantly better fit to empirical data than prior laws (e.g., Chinchilla's law). Our methodology yields accurate, robust, and highly generalizable predictions, demonstrating excellent extrapolation capabilities, improving upon Chinchilla's law by reducing extrapolation error by 433\%. This allows for the reliable evaluation of competing training strategies across all (N,D) settings, enabling conclusions from small-scale ablation studies to be confidently extrapolated to predict large-scale performance. Furthermore, Farseer provides new insights into optimal compute allocation, better reflecting the nuanced demands of modern LLM training. To validate our approach, we trained an extensive suite of approximately 1,000 LLMs across diverse scales and configurations, consuming roughly 3 million NVIDIA H100 GPU hours. We are comprehensively open-sourcing all models, data, results, and logs at https://github.com/Farseer-Scaling-Law/Farseer to foster further research.

Large language models (LLMs) have attracted significant attention due to their impressive general capabilities across diverse downstream tasks. However, without domain-specific optimization, they often underperform on specialized knowledge benchmarks and even produce hallucination. Recent studies show that strategically infusing domain knowledge during pretraining can substantially improve downstream performance. A critical challenge lies in balancing this infusion trade-off: injecting too little domain-specific data yields insufficient specialization, whereas excessive infusion triggers catastrophic forgetting of previously acquired knowledge. In this work, we focus on the phenomenon of memory collapse induced by over-infusion. Through systematic experiments, we make two key observations, i.e. 1) Critical collapse point: each model exhibits a threshold beyond which its knowledge retention capabilities sharply degrade. 2) Scale correlation: these collapse points scale consistently with the model's size. Building on these insights, we propose a knowledge infusion scaling law that predicts the optimal amount of domain knowledge to inject into large LLMs by analyzing their smaller counterparts. Extensive experiments across different model sizes and pertaining token budgets validate both the effectiveness and generalizability of our scaling law.

Scaling video diffusion transformers (DiTs) is limited by their quadratic 3D attention, even though most of the attention mass concentrates on a small subset of positions. We turn this observation into VSA, a trainable, hardware-efficient sparse attention that replaces full attention at both training and inference. In VSA, a lightweight coarse stage pools tokens into tiles and identifies high-weight critical tokens; a fine stage computes token-level attention only inside those tiles subjecting to block computing layout to ensure hard efficiency. This leads to a single differentiable kernel that trains end-to-end, requires no post-hoc profiling, and sustains 85\% of FlashAttention3 MFU. We perform a large sweep of ablation studies and scaling-law experiments by pretraining DiTs from 60M to 1.4B parameters. VSA reaches a Pareto point that cuts training FLOPS by 2.53times with no drop in diffusion loss. Retrofitting the open-source Wan-2.1 model speeds up attention time by 6times and lowers end-to-end generation time from 31s to 18s with comparable quality. These results establish trainable sparse attention as a practical alternative to full attention and a key enabler for further scaling of video diffusion models.

In large language models, the demand for modeling long contexts is constantly increasing, but the quadratic complexity of the standard self-attention mechanism often becomes a bottleneck. Although existing sparse attention mechanisms have improved efficiency, they may still encounter issues such as static patterns or information loss. We introduce a trainable dynamic mask sparse attention mechanism, Dynamic Mask Attention, which effectively utilizes content-aware and position-aware sparsity. DMA achieves this through two key innovations: First, it dynamically generates content-aware sparse masks from value representations, enabling the model to identify and focus on critical information adaptively. Second, it implements position-aware sparse attention computation that effectively skips unnecessary calculation regions. This dual-sparsity design allows the model to significantly reduce the computational complexity of important information while retaining complete information, achieving an excellent balance between information fidelity and computational efficiency. We have verified the performance of DMA through comprehensive experiments. Comparative studies show that DMA outperforms multi-head attention, sliding window attention, multi-head latent attention, and native sparse attention in terms of perplexity under Chinchilla Scaling Law settings. Moreover, in challenging multi-query associative recall tasks, DMA also demonstrates superior performance and efficiency compared to these methods. Crucially, in the evaluation of a 1.7B parameter model, DMA significantly outperforms multi-head attention in both standard benchmark performance and the challenging needle-in-a-haystack task. These experimental results highlight its capability to balance model efficiency and long-context modeling ability effectively.

Clouds in satellite imagery pose a significant challenge for downstream applications. A major challenge in current cloud removal research is the absence of a comprehensive benchmark and a sufficiently large and diverse training dataset. To address this problem, we introduce the largest public dataset -- AllClear for cloud removal, featuring 23,742 globally distributed regions of interest (ROIs) with diverse land-use patterns, comprising 4 million images in total. Each ROI includes complete temporal captures from the year 2022, with (1) multi-spectral optical imagery from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9, (2) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery from Sentinel-1, and (3) auxiliary remote sensing products such as cloud masks and land cover maps. We validate the effectiveness of our dataset by benchmarking performance, demonstrating the scaling law -- the PSNR rises from 28.47 to 33.87 with 30times more data, and conducting ablation studies on the temporal length and the importance of individual modalities. This dataset aims to provide comprehensive coverage of the Earth's surface and promote better cloud removal results.

In studies of transferable learning, scaling laws are obtained for various important foundation models to predict their properties and performance at larger scales. We show here how scaling law derivation can also be used for model and dataset comparison, allowing to decide which procedure is to be preferred for pre-training. For the first time, full scaling laws based on dense measurements across a wide span of model and samples seen scales are derived for two important language-vision learning procedures, CLIP and MaMMUT, that use either contrastive only or contrastive and captioning text generative loss. Ensuring sufficient prediction accuracy for held out points, we use derived scaling laws to compare both models, obtaining evidence for MaMMUT's stronger improvement with scale and better sample efficiency than standard CLIP. To strengthen validity of the comparison, we show scaling laws for various downstream tasks, classification, retrieval, and segmentation, and for different open datasets, DataComp, DFN and Re-LAION, observing consistently the same trends. We show that comparison can also be performed when deriving scaling laws with a constant learning rate schedule, reducing compute cost. Accurate derivation of scaling laws provides thus means to perform model and dataset comparison across scale spans, avoiding misleading conclusions based on measurements from single reference scales only, paving the road for systematic comparison and improvement of open foundation models and datasets for their creation. We release all the pre-trained models with their intermediate checkpoints, including openMaMMUT-L/14, which achieves 80.3% zero-shot ImageNet-1k accuracy, trained on 12.8B samples from DataComp-1.4B. Code for reproducing experiments in the paper and raw experiments data can be found at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-for-comparison.

Neural scaling laws define a predictable relationship between a model's parameter count and its performance after training in the form of a power law. However, most research to date has not explicitly investigated whether scaling laws can be used to accelerate model development. In this work, we perform such an empirical investigation across a wide range of language understanding tasks, starting from models with as few as 10K parameters, and evaluate downstream performance across 9 language understanding tasks. We find that scaling laws emerge at finetuning time in some NLP tasks, and that they can also be exploited for debugging convergence when training large models. Moreover, for tasks where scaling laws exist, they can be used to predict the performance of larger models, which enables effective model selection. However, revealing scaling laws requires careful hyperparameter tuning and multiple runs for the purpose of uncertainty estimation, which incurs additional overhead, partially offsetting the computational benefits.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Scaling up neural networks has led to remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. Moreover, performance often follows reliable scaling laws as a function of training set size, model size, and compute, which offers valuable guidance as large-scale experiments are becoming increasingly expensive. However, previous work on scaling laws has primarily used private data \& models or focused on uni-modal language or vision learning. To address these limitations, we investigate scaling laws for contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) with the public LAION dataset and the open-source OpenCLIP repository. Our large-scale experiments involve models trained on up to two billion image-text pairs and identify power law scaling for multiple downstream tasks including zero-shot classification, retrieval, linear probing, and end-to-end fine-tuning. We find that the training distribution plays a key role in scaling laws as the OpenAI and OpenCLIP models exhibit different scaling behavior despite identical model architectures and similar training recipes. We open-source our evaluation workflow and all models, including the largest public CLIP models, to ensure reproducibility and make scaling laws research more accessible. Source code and instructions to reproduce this study will be available at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-openclip

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Discovering scaling laws for predicting model performance at scale is a fundamental and open-ended challenge, mostly reliant on slow, case specific human experimentation. To investigate the potential for LLMs to automate this process, we collect over 5,000 experiments from existing literature and curate seven diverse scaling law discovery tasks. While existing agents struggle to produce accurate law formulas, this paper introduces SLDAgent, an evolution-based agent that co-optimize the scaling law model and the parameters, enabling it to autonomously explore complex relationships between variables. For the first time, we demonstrates that SLDAgent can automatically discover laws that exhibit consistently more accurate extrapolation than their established, human-derived counterparts across all tasks. Through comprehensive analysis, we elucidate why these discovered laws are superior and verify their practical utility in both pretraining and finetuning applications. This work establishes a new paradigm for agentic scientific discovery, showing that AI systems can understand their own scaling behavior, and can contribute novel and practical knowledge back to the research community.

The remarkable success of large language pretraining and the discovery of scaling laws signify a paradigm shift in machine learning. Notably, the primary objective has evolved from minimizing generalization error to reducing approximation error, and the most effective strategy has transitioned from regularization (in a broad sense) to scaling up models. This raises a critical question: Do the established principles that proved successful in the generalization-centric era remain valid in this new era of scaling? This paper examines several influential regularization-based principles that may no longer hold true in the scaling-centric, large language model (LLM) era. These principles include explicit L2 regularization and implicit regularization through small batch sizes and large learning rates. Additionally, we identify a new phenomenon termed ``scaling law crossover,'' where two scaling curves intersect at a certain scale, implying that methods effective at smaller scales may not generalize to larger ones. Together, these observations highlight two fundamental questions within this new paradigm: bullet Guiding Principles for Scaling: If regularization is no longer the primary guiding principle for model design, what new principles are emerging to guide scaling? bullet Model Comparison at Scale: How to reliably and effectively compare models at the scale where only a single experiment is feasible?

Large language model (LLM) scaling laws are empirical formulas that estimate changes in model quality as a result of increasing parameter count and training data. However, these formulas, including the popular DeepMind Chinchilla scaling laws, neglect to include the cost of inference. We modify the Chinchilla scaling laws to calculate the optimal LLM parameter count and pre-training data size to train and deploy a model of a given quality and inference demand. We conduct our analysis both in terms of a compute budget and real-world costs and find that LLM researchers expecting reasonably large inference demand (~1B requests) should train models smaller and longer than Chinchilla-optimal.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is the compute-optimal scaling law, which reports the performance as a function of units of compute when choosing model sizes optimally. We analyze a random feature model trained with gradient descent as a solvable model of network training and generalization. This reproduces many observations about neural scaling laws. First, our model makes a prediction about why the scaling of performance with training time and with model size have different power law exponents. Consequently, the theory predicts an asymmetric compute-optimal scaling rule where the number of training steps are increased faster than model parameters, consistent with recent empirical observations. Second, it has been observed that early in training, networks converge to their infinite-width dynamics at a rate 1/width but at late time exhibit a rate width^{-c}, where c depends on the structure of the architecture and task. We show that our model exhibits this behavior. Lastly, our theory shows how the gap between training and test loss can gradually build up over time due to repeated reuse of data.

Scaling laws predict the loss of a target machine learning model by extrapolating from easier-to-train models with fewer parameters or smaller training sets. This provides an efficient way for practitioners and researchers alike to compare pretraining decisions involving optimizers, datasets, and model architectures. Despite the widespread use of scaling laws to model the dynamics of language model training, there has been little work on understanding how to best estimate and interpret them. We collect (and release) a large-scale dataset containing losses and downstream evaluations for 485 previously published pretrained models. We use these to estimate more than 1000 scaling laws, then derive a set of best practices for estimating scaling laws in new model families. We find that fitting scaling laws to intermediate checkpoints of training runs (and not just their final losses) substantially improves accuracy, and that -- all else equal -- estimates of performance are generally most accurate when derived from other models of similar sizes. However, because there is a significant degree of variability across model seeds, training multiple small models is sometimes more useful than training a single large one. Moreover, while different model families differ scaling behavior, they are often similar enough that a target model's behavior can be predicted from a single model with the same architecture, along with scaling parameter estimates derived from other model families.

Scaling laws have emerged as important components of large language model (LLM) training as they can predict performance gains through scale, and provide guidance on important hyper-parameter choices that would otherwise be expensive. LLMs also rely on large, high-quality training datasets, like those sourced from (sometimes sensitive) user data. Training models on this sensitive user data requires careful privacy protections like differential privacy (DP). However, the dynamics of DP training are significantly different, and consequently their scaling laws are not yet fully understood. In this work, we establish scaling laws that accurately model the intricacies of DP LLM training, providing a complete picture of the compute-privacy-utility tradeoffs and the optimal training configurations in many settings.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

Many studies on scaling laws consider basic factors such as model size, model shape, dataset size, and compute power. These factors are easily tunable and represent the fundamental elements of any machine learning setup. But researchers have also employed more complex factors to estimate the test error and generalization performance with high predictability. These factors are generally specific to the domain or application. For example, feature diversity was primarily used for promoting syn-to-real transfer by Chen et al. (2021). With numerous scaling factors defined in previous works, it would be interesting to investigate how these factors may affect overall generalization performance in the context of self-supervised learning with CNN models. How do individual factors promote generalization, which includes varying depth, width, or the number of training epochs with early stopping? For example, does higher feature diversity result in higher accuracy held in complex settings other than a syn-to-real transfer? How do these factors depend on each other? We found that the last layer is the most diversified throughout the training. However, while the model's test error decreases with increasing epochs, its diversity drops. We also discovered that diversity is directly related to model width.

Scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) predict model performance based on parameters like size and training data. However, differences in training configurations and data processing across model families lead to significant variations in benchmark performance, making it difficult for a single scaling law to generalize across all LLMs. On the other hand, training family-specific scaling laws requires training models of varying sizes for every family. In this work, we propose Skills Scaling Laws (SSLaws, pronounced as Sloth), a novel scaling law that leverages publicly available benchmark data and assumes LLM performance is driven by low-dimensional latent skills, such as reasoning and instruction following. These latent skills are influenced by computational resources like model size and training tokens but with varying efficiencies across model families. Sloth exploits correlations across benchmarks to provide more accurate and interpretable predictions while alleviating the need to train multiple LLMs per family. We present both theoretical results on parameter identification and empirical evaluations on 12 prominent benchmarks, from Open LLM Leaderboard v1/v2, demonstrating that Sloth predicts LLM performance efficiently and offers insights into scaling behaviors for complex downstream tasks and increased test-time compute.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

Scaling laws provide important insights that can guide the design of large language models (LLMs). Existing work has primarily focused on studying scaling laws for pretraining (upstream) loss. However, in transfer learning settings, in which LLMs are pretrained on an unsupervised dataset and then finetuned on a downstream task, we often also care about the downstream performance. In this work, we study the scaling behavior in a transfer learning setting, where LLMs are finetuned for machine translation tasks. Specifically, we investigate how the choice of the pretraining data and its size affect downstream performance (translation quality) as judged by two metrics: downstream cross-entropy and BLEU score. Our experiments indicate that the size of the finetuning dataset and the distribution alignment between the pretraining and downstream data significantly influence the scaling behavior. With sufficient alignment, both downstream cross-entropy and BLEU score improve monotonically with more pretraining data. In such cases, we show that it is possible to predict the downstream BLEU score with good accuracy using a log-law. However, there are also cases where moderate misalignment causes the BLEU score to fluctuate or get worse with more pretraining, whereas downstream cross-entropy monotonically improves. By analyzing these observations, we provide new practical insights for choosing appropriate pretraining data.

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on trial and error, which becomes impractical for large-scale pretraining. We propose a systematic method to determine the optimal data mixture for any target domain using scaling laws. Our approach accurately predicts the loss of a model of size N trained with D tokens and a specific domain weight vector h. We validate the universality of these scaling laws by demonstrating their predictive power in three distinct and large-scale settings: large language model (LLM), native multimodal model (NMM), and large vision models (LVM) pretraining. We further show that these scaling laws can extrapolate to new data mixtures and across scales: their parameters can be accurately estimated using a few small-scale training runs, and used to estimate the performance at larger scales and unseen domain weights. The scaling laws allow to derive the optimal domain weights for any target domain under a given training budget (N,D), providing a principled alternative to costly trial-and-error methods.

Language model (LM) distillation is a trending area that aims to distil the knowledge resided in a large teacher LM to a small student one. While various methods have been proposed to push the distillation to its limits, it is still a pain distilling LMs when a large capacity gap is exhibited between the teacher and the student LMs. The pain is mainly resulted by the curse of capacity gap, which describes that a larger teacher LM cannot always lead to a better student LM than one distilled from a smaller teacher LM due to the affect of capacity gap increment. That is, there is likely an optimal point yielding the best student LM along the scaling course of the teacher LM. Even worse, the curse of capacity gap can be only partly yet not fully lifted as indicated in previous studies. However, the tale is not ever one-sided. Although a larger teacher LM has better performance than a smaller teacher LM, it is much more resource-demanding especially in the context of recent large LMs (LLMs). Consequently, instead of sticking to lifting the curse, leaving the curse as is should be arguably fine. Even better, in this paper, we reveal that the optimal capacity gap is almost consistent across different student scales and architectures, fortunately turning the curse into the law of capacity gap. The law later guides us to distil a 3B student LM (termed MiniMA) from a 7B teacher LM (adapted LLaMA2-7B). MiniMA is demonstrated to yield a new compute-performance pareto frontier among existing 3B LMs on commonly used benchmarks, and its instruction-tuned version (termed MiniChat) outperforms a wide range of 3B competitors in GPT4 evaluation and could even compete with several 7B chat models.

Scaling laws are a critical component of the LLM development pipeline, most famously as a way to forecast training decisions such as 'compute-optimally' trading-off parameter count and dataset size, alongside a more recent growing list of other crucial decisions. In this work, we ask whether compute-optimal scaling behaviour can be skill-dependent. In particular, we examine knowledge and reasoning-based skills such as knowledge-based QA and code generation, and we answer this question in the affirmative: scaling laws are skill-dependent. Next, to understand whether skill-dependent scaling is an artefact of the pretraining datamix, we conduct an extensive ablation of different datamixes and find that, also when correcting for datamix differences, knowledge and code exhibit fundamental differences in scaling behaviour. We conclude with an analysis of how our findings relate to standard compute-optimal scaling using a validation set, and find that a misspecified validation set can impact compute-optimal parameter count by nearly 50%, depending on its skill composition.

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require significant effort and, in some cases, be impossible due to external hardware constraints. To improve predictability across a broader set of hyperparameters and enable simpler tuning at scale, we propose learning a Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (CPL): a mapping from the full training configuration to training performance. Because no simple functional form can express this mapping, we parameterize it with a large language model (LLM), and fit it with diverse open-source pretraining logs across multiple sources, yielding a Neural Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (NCPL). NCPL accurately predicts how training configurations influence the final pretraining loss, achieving 20-40% lower prediction error than the configuration-agnostic Chinchilla law and generalizing to runs using up to 10 x more compute than any run in the training set. It further supports joint tuning of multiple hyperparameters with performance comparable to hyperparameter scaling law baselines. Finally, NCPL naturally and effectively extends to richer prediction targets such as loss-curve prediction.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are trained for thousands of GPU hours on carefully curated web datasets. In recent times, data curation has gained prominence with several works developing strategies to retain 'high-quality' subsets of 'raw' scraped data. For instance, the LAION public dataset retained only 10% of the total crawled data. However, these strategies are typically developed agnostic of the available compute for training. In this paper, we first demonstrate that making filtering decisions independent of training compute is often suboptimal: the limited high-quality data rapidly loses its utility when repeated, eventually requiring the inclusion of 'unseen' but 'lower-quality' data. To address this quality-quantity tradeoff (QQT), we introduce neural scaling laws that account for the non-homogeneous nature of web data, an angle ignored in existing literature. Our scaling laws (i) characterize the differing 'utility' of various quality subsets of web data; (ii) account for how utility diminishes for a data point at its 'nth' repetition; and (iii) formulate the mutual interaction of various data pools when combined, enabling the estimation of model performance on a combination of multiple data pools without ever jointly training on them. Our key message is that data curation cannot be agnostic of the total compute that a model will be trained for. Our scaling laws allow us to curate the best possible pool for achieving top performance on Datacomp at various compute budgets, carving out a pareto-frontier for data curation. Code is available at https://github.com/locuslab/scaling_laws_data_filtering.

Alternatives to backpropagation have long been studied to better understand how biological brains may learn. Recently, they have also garnered interest as a way to train neural networks more efficiently. By relaxing constraints inherent to backpropagation (e.g., symmetric feedforward and feedback weights, sequential updates), these methods enable promising prospects, such as local learning. However, the tradeoffs between different methods in terms of final task performance, convergence speed, and ultimately compute and data requirements are rarely outlined. In this work, we use scaling laws to study the ability of Direct Feedback Alignment~(DFA) to train causal decoder-only Transformers efficiently. Scaling laws provide an overview of the tradeoffs implied by a modeling decision, up to extrapolating how it might transfer to increasingly large models. We find that DFA fails to offer more efficient scaling than backpropagation: there is never a regime for which the degradation in loss incurred by using DFA is worth the potential reduction in compute budget. Our finding comes at variance with previous beliefs in the alternative training methods community, and highlights the need for holistic empirical approaches to better understand modeling decisions.

This paper studies the scale and redshift variation of density and velocity distributions in self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow by a halo-based non-projection approach. All particles are divided into halo and out-of-halo particles for redshift variation of distributions. Without projecting particle fields onto a structured grid, the scale variation is analyzed by identifying all particle pairs on different scales r. We demonstrate that: i) Delaunay tessellation can be used to reconstruct the density field. The density correlation, spectrum, and dispersion functions were obtained, modeled, and compared with the N-body simulation; ii) the velocity distributions are symmetric on both small and large scales and are non-symmetric with a negative skewness on intermediate scales due to the inverse energy cascade at a constant rate varepsilon_u; iii) On small scales, the even order moments of pairwise velocity Delta u_L follow a two-thirds law (-varepsilon_ur)^{2/3}, while the odd order moments follow a linear scaling langle(Delta u_L)^{2n+1}rangle=(2n+1)langle(Delta u_L)^{2n}ranglelangleDelta u_Lrangler; iv) The scale variation of the velocity distributions was studied for longitudinal velocities u_L or u_L^{'}, pairwise velocity (velocity difference) Delta u_L=u_L^{'}-u_L and velocity sum Sigma u_L=u^{'}_L+u_L. Fully developed velocity fields are never Gaussian on any scale, despite that they can initially be Gaussian; v) On small scales, u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a X distribution to maximize the system entropy; vi) On large scales, Delta u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a logistic or a X distribution; vii) the redshift variation of the velocity distributions follows the evolution of the X distribution involving a shape parameter alpha(z) decreasing with time.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

The Earth's atmosphere is an aerosol, it contains suspended particles. When air flows over an obstacle such as an aircraft wing or tree branch, these particles may not follow the same paths as the air flowing around the obstacle. Instead the particles in the air may deviate from the path of the air and so collide with the surface of the obstacle. It is known that particle inertia can drive this deposition, and that there is a critical value of this inertia, below which no point particles deposit. Particle inertia is measured by the Stokes number, St. We show that near the critical value of the Stokes number, St_c, the amount of deposition has the unusual scaling law of exp(-1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}). The scaling is controlled by the stagnation point of the flow. This scaling is determined by the time for the particle to reach the surface of the cylinder varying as 1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}, together with the distance away from the stagnation point (perpendicular to the flow direction) increasing exponentially with time. The scaling law applies to inviscid flow, a model for flow at high Reynolds numbers. The unusual scaling means that the amount of particles deposited increases only very slowly above the critical Stokes number. This has consequences for applications ranging from rime formation and fog harvesting to pollination.

Work on scaling laws has found that large language models (LMs) show predictable improvements to overall loss with increased scale (model size, training data, and compute). Here, we present evidence for the claim that LMs may show inverse scaling, or worse task performance with increased scale, e.g., due to flaws in the training objective and data. We present empirical evidence of inverse scaling on 11 datasets collected by running a public contest, the Inverse Scaling Prize, with a substantial prize pool. Through analysis of the datasets, along with other examples found in the literature, we identify four potential causes of inverse scaling: (i) preference to repeat memorized sequences over following in-context instructions, (ii) imitation of undesirable patterns in the training data, (iii) tasks containing an easy distractor task which LMs could focus on, rather than the harder real task, and (iv) correct but misleading few-shot demonstrations of the task. We release the winning datasets at https://inversescaling.com/data to allow for further investigation of inverse scaling. Our tasks have helped drive the discovery of U-shaped and inverted-U scaling trends, where an initial trend reverses, suggesting that scaling trends are less reliable at predicting the behavior of larger-scale models than previously understood. Overall, our results suggest that there are tasks for which increased model scale alone may not lead to progress, and that more careful thought needs to go into the data and objectives for training language models.

Guided by the belief of the scaling law, large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in recent years. However, scaling law only gives a qualitative estimation of loss, which is influenced by various factors such as model architectures, data distributions, tokenizers, and computation precision. Thus, estimating the real performance of LLMs with different training settings rather than loss may be quite useful in practical development. In this article, we present an empirical equation named "Performance Law" to directly predict the MMLU score of an LLM, which is a widely used metric to indicate the general capability of LLMs in real-world conversations and applications. Based on only a few key hyperparameters of the LLM architecture and the size of training data, we obtain a quite accurate MMLU prediction of various LLMs with diverse sizes and architectures developed by different organizations in different years. Performance law can be used to guide the choice of LLM architecture and the effective allocation of computational resources without extensive experiments.

Scaling laws play an instrumental role in the sustainable improvement in model quality. Unfortunately, recommendation models to date do not exhibit such laws similar to those observed in the domain of large language models, due to the inefficiencies of their upscaling mechanisms. This limitation poses significant challenges in adapting these models to increasingly more complex real-world datasets. In this paper, we propose an effective network architecture based purely on stacked factorization machines, and a synergistic upscaling strategy, collectively dubbed Wukong, to establish a scaling law in the domain of recommendation. Wukong's unique design makes it possible to capture diverse, any-order of interactions simply through taller and wider layers. We conducted extensive evaluations on six public datasets, and our results demonstrate that Wukong consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models quality-wise. Further, we assessed Wukong's scalability on an internal, large-scale dataset. The results show that Wukong retains its superiority in quality over state-of-the-art models, while holding the scaling law across two orders of magnitude in model complexity, extending beyond 100 Gflop or equivalently up to GPT-3/LLaMa-2 scale of total training compute, where prior arts fall short.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

Scaling laws have shaped recent advances in machine learning by enabling predictable scaling of model performance based on model size, computation, and data volume. Concurrently, the rise in computational cost for AI has motivated model compression techniques, notably quantization and sparsification, which have emerged to mitigate the steep computational demands associated with large-scale training and inference. This paper investigates the interplay between scaling laws and compression formats, exploring whether a unified scaling framework can accurately predict model performance when training occurs over various compressed representations, such as sparse, scalar-quantized, sparse-quantized or even vector-quantized formats. Our key contributions include validating a general scaling law formulation and showing that it is applicable both individually but also composably across compression types. Based on this, our main finding is demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that there exists a simple "capacity" metric -- based on the representation's ability to fit random Gaussian data -- which can robustly predict parameter efficiency across multiple compressed representations. On the practical side, we extend our formulation to directly compare the accuracy potential of different compressed formats, and to derive better algorithms for training over sparse-quantized formats.

Scaling up language models has been empirically shown to improve performance on a wide range of downstream tasks. However, if we were to observe worse performance as a function of scale ("inverse scaling") on certain tasks, this would indicate that scaling can also encourage behaviors that are misaligned with human preferences. The Inverse Scaling Prize (McKenzie et al. 2022) identified eleven such inverse scaling tasks, evaluated on models of up to 280B parameters and up to 500 zettaFLOPs of training compute. This paper takes a closer look at these inverse scaling tasks. We evaluate models of up to 540B parameters, trained on five times more compute than those evaluated in the Inverse Scaling Prize. With this increased range of model sizes and training compute, only four out of the eleven tasks remain inverse scaling. Six out of the eleven tasks exhibit "U-shaped scaling", where performance decreases up to a certain size, and then increases again up to the largest model evaluated (the one remaining task displays positive scaling). In addition, we find that 1-shot examples and chain-of-thought can help mitigate undesirable scaling patterns even further. U-shaped scaling suggests that the inverse scaling trend observed in McKenzie et al. (2022) may not continue to hold for larger models, which we attribute to the presence of distractor tasks that only sufficiently large models can avoid.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

Scale has become a main ingredient in obtaining strong machine learning models. As a result, understanding a model's scaling properties is key to effectively designing both the right training setup as well as future generations of architectures. In this work, we argue that scale and training research has been needlessly complex due to reliance on the cosine schedule, which prevents training across different lengths for the same model size. We investigate the training behavior of a direct alternative - constant learning rate and cooldowns - and find that it scales predictably and reliably similar to cosine. Additionally, we show that stochastic weight averaging yields improved performance along the training trajectory, without additional training costs, across different scales. Importantly, with these findings we demonstrate that scaling experiments can be performed with significantly reduced compute and GPU hours by utilizing fewer but reusable training runs.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

Empirical scaling laws prescribe how to allocate parameters, data, and compute, while maximal-update parameterization (muP) enables learning-rate transfer across widths by equalizing early-time update magnitudes. However, in modern scale-invariant architectures, training quickly enters an optimizer-governed steady state where normalization layers create backward scale sensitivity and the effective learning rate becomes width dependent, degrading muP transfer. We address this by introducing a weight-decay scaling rule for AdamW that preserves sublayer gain across widths. Empirically, the singular-value spectrum of each matrix parameter scales in norm as eta/lambda with an approximately invariant shape; under width scaling d, we observe that the top singular value scales approximately as eta/lambdacdot d^{0.75}. Combining this observation with the muP learning-rate rule eta_2propto d^{-1} for matrix-like parameters implies an empirical weight-decay scaling rule lambda_2propto d that approximately keeps sublayer gains width invariant. Together with vector-like parameters trained at eta_1=Theta_d(1) and lambda_1=0, this yields zero-shot transfer of both learning rate and weight decay from proxy to target widths, removing per-width sweeps. We validate the rule on LLaMA-style Transformers and in a minimal synthetic setting, and we provide a simple diagnostic, matching top singular values, to check sublayer-gain invariance. Our results extend muP beyond the near-init regime by explicitly controlling steady-state scales set by the optimizer, offering a practical recipe for width-robust hyperparameter transfer under AdamW.

The deployment of ever-larger machine learning models reflects a growing consensus that the more expressive the modelx2013and the more data one has access tox2013the more one can improve performance. As models get deployed in a variety of real world scenarios, they inevitably face strategic environments. In this work, we consider the natural question of how the interplay of models and strategic interactions affects scaling laws. We find that strategic interactions can break the conventional view of scaling lawsx2013meaning that performance does not necessarily monotonically improve as models get larger and/ or more expressive (even with infinite data). We show the implications of this phenomenon in several contexts including strategic regression, strategic classification, and multi-agent reinforcement learning through examples of strategic environments in whichx2013by simply restricting the expressivity of one's model or policy classx2013one can achieve strictly better equilibrium outcomes. Motivated by these examples, we then propose a new paradigm for model-selection in games wherein an agent seeks to choose amongst different model classes to use as their action set in a game.

Recent years have witnessed success of sequential modeling, generative recommender, and large language model for recommendation. Though the scaling law has been validated for sequential models, it showed inefficiency in computational capacity when considering real-world applications like recommendation, due to the non-linear(quadratic) increasing nature of the transformer model. To improve the efficiency of the sequential model, we introduced a novel approach to sequential recommendation that leverages personalization techniques to enhance efficiency and performance. Our method compresses long user interaction histories into learnable tokens, which are then combined with recent interactions to generate recommendations. This approach significantly reduces computational costs while maintaining high recommendation accuracy. Our method could be applied to existing transformer based recommendation models, e.g., HSTU and HLLM. Extensive experiments on multiple sequential models demonstrate its versatility and effectiveness. Source code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/PerSRec{https://github.com/facebookresearch/PerSRec}.

The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their parameters while processing an input. For these models, parameter count and computational requirement form two independent axes along which an increase leads to better performance. In this work we derive and justify scaling laws defined on these two variables which generalize those known for standard language models and describe the performance of a wide range of routing architectures trained via three different techniques. Afterwards we provide two applications of these laws: first deriving an Effective Parameter Count along which all models scale at the same rate, and then using the scaling coefficients to give a quantitative comparison of the three routing techniques considered. Our analysis derives from an extensive evaluation of Routing Networks across five orders of magnitude of size, including models with hundreds of experts and hundreds of billions of parameters.

Over the past few years, the size of language models has grown exponentially, as has the computational cost to train these large models. This rapid growth has motivated researchers to develop new techniques aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the training process. Despite these advancements, optimally predicting the model size or allocating optimal resources remains a challenge. Several efforts have addressed the challenge by proposing different scaling laws, but almost all of them are architecture-specific (dense or sparse). In this work we revisit existing scaling laws and propose a generalized scaling law to provide a unified framework that is applicable to both dense and sparse large language models. We evaluate and compare our proposed scaling law with existing scaling laws to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Scaling laws have transformed our understanding of large language models by linking upstream metrics like cross-entropy loss to design factors such as model size, training data, and compute. However, these conventional laws fail to capture downstream task performance, where context plays a critical role. In this work, we propose a straightforward, interpretable framework that jointly models downstream performance as a function of the training compute and the provided context. We empirically validate our framework by fitting it on the observed downstream performance of extended-context variants of Llama-2-7B and Llama-2-13B across 65,500 unique instances spanning three tasks: arithmetic reasoning, common sense reasoning, and machine translation. Our results demonstrate that our framework accurately models in-distribution downstream performance, generalizes across three orders of magnitude in training compute, and reliably extrapolates performance as the amount of context increases. These findings offer valuable insights into the interplay between training compute and context utilization, providing guidance for designing more efficient long-context LLMs for diverse downstream tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wang-research-lab/context-scaling.

This paper presents a systematic study of scaling laws for the deepfake detection task. Specifically, we analyze the model performance against the number of real image domains, deepfake generation methods, and training images. Since no existing dataset meets the scale requirements for this research, we construct ScaleDF, the largest dataset to date in this field, which contains over 5.8 million real images from 51 different datasets (domains) and more than 8.8 million fake images generated by 102 deepfake methods. Using ScaleDF, we observe power-law scaling similar to that shown in large language models (LLMs). Specifically, the average detection error follows a predictable power-law decay as either the number of real domains or the number of deepfake methods increases. This key observation not only allows us to forecast the number of additional real domains or deepfake methods required to reach a target performance, but also inspires us to counter the evolving deepfake technology in a data-centric manner. Beyond this, we examine the role of pre-training and data augmentations in deepfake detection under scaling, as well as the limitations of scaling itself.

In recent years, language models have drastically grown in size, and the abilities of these models have been shown to improve with scale. The majority of recent scaling laws studies focused on high-compute high-parameter count settings, leaving the question of when these abilities begin to emerge largely unanswered. In this paper, we investigate whether the effects of pre-training can be observed when the problem size is reduced, modeling a smaller, reduced-vocabulary language. We show the benefits of pre-training with masked language modeling (MLM) objective in models as small as 1.25M parameters, and establish a strong correlation between pre-training perplexity and downstream performance (GLUE benchmark). We examine downscaling effects, extending scaling laws to models as small as ~1M parameters. At this scale, we observe a break of the power law for compute-optimal models and show that the MLM loss does not scale smoothly with compute-cost (FLOPs) below 2.2 times 10^{15} FLOPs. We also find that adding layers does not always benefit downstream performance.

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

Uncovering early-stage metrics that reflect final model performance is one core principle for large-scale pretraining. The existing scaling law demonstrates the power-law correlation between pretraining loss and training flops, which serves as an important indicator of the current training state for large language models. However, this principle only focuses on the model's compression properties on the training data, resulting in an inconsistency with the ability improvements on the downstream tasks. Some follow-up works attempted to extend the scaling-law to more complex metrics (such as hyperparameters), but still lacked a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic differences among various capabilities during pretraining. To address the aforementioned limitations, this paper undertakes a comprehensive comparison of model capabilities at various pretraining intermediate checkpoints. Through this analysis, we confirm that specific downstream metrics exhibit similar training dynamics across models of different sizes, up to 67 billion parameters. In addition to our core findings, we've reproduced Amber and OpenLLaMA, releasing their intermediate checkpoints. This initiative offers valuable resources to the research community and facilitates the verification and exploration of LLM pretraining by open-source researchers. Besides, we provide empirical summaries, including performance comparisons of different models and capabilities, and tuition of key metrics for different training phases. Based on these findings, we provide a more user-friendly strategy for evaluating the optimization state, offering guidance for establishing a stable pretraining process.

We present an empirical study of scaling properties of encoder-decoder Transformer models used in neural machine translation (NMT). We show that cross-entropy loss as a function of model size follows a certain scaling law. Specifically (i) We propose a formula which describes the scaling behavior of cross-entropy loss as a bivariate function of encoder and decoder size, and show that it gives accurate predictions under a variety of scaling approaches and languages; we show that the total number of parameters alone is not sufficient for such purposes. (ii) We observe different power law exponents when scaling the decoder vs scaling the encoder, and provide recommendations for optimal allocation of encoder/decoder capacity based on this observation. (iii) We also report that the scaling behavior of the model is acutely influenced by composition bias of the train/test sets, which we define as any deviation from naturally generated text (either via machine generated or human translated text). We observe that natural text on the target side enjoys scaling, which manifests as successful reduction of the cross-entropy loss. (iv) Finally, we investigate the relationship between the cross-entropy loss and the quality of the generated translations. We find two different behaviors, depending on the nature of the test data. For test sets which were originally translated from target language to source language, both loss and BLEU score improve as model size increases. In contrast, for test sets originally translated from source language to target language, the loss improves, but the BLEU score stops improving after a certain threshold. We release generated text from all models used in this study.

It is commonly believed that scaling language models should commit a significant space or time cost, by increasing the parameters (parameter scaling) or output tokens (inference-time scaling). We introduce the third and more inference-efficient scaling paradigm: increasing the model's parallel computation during both training and inference time. We apply P diverse and learnable transformations to the input, execute forward passes of the model in parallel, and dynamically aggregate the P outputs. This method, namely parallel scaling (ParScale), scales parallel computation by reusing existing parameters and can be applied to any model structure, optimization procedure, data, or task. We theoretically propose a new scaling law and validate it through large-scale pre-training, which shows that a model with P parallel streams is similar to scaling the parameters by O(log P) while showing superior inference efficiency. For example, ParScale can use up to 22times less memory increase and 6times less latency increase compared to parameter scaling that achieves the same performance improvement. It can also recycle an off-the-shelf pre-trained model into a parallelly scaled one by post-training on a small amount of tokens, further reducing the training budget. The new scaling law we discovered potentially facilitates the deployment of more powerful models in low-resource scenarios, and provides an alternative perspective for the role of computation in machine learning.

Large language model pre-training has become increasingly expensive, with most practitioners relying on scaling laws to allocate compute budgets for model size and training tokens, commonly referred to as Compute-Optimal or Chinchilla Optimal. In this paper, we hypothesize a new scaling law that suggests model performance depends mostly on the amount of compute spent for transformer-based models, independent of the specific allocation to model size and dataset size. Using this unified scaling law, we predict that (a) for inference efficiency, training should prioritize smaller model sizes and larger training datasets, and (b) assuming the exhaustion of available web datasets, scaling the model size might be the only way to further improve model performance.

Scaling laws guide the development of large language models (LLMs) by offering estimates for the optimal balance of model size, tokens, and compute. More recently, loss-to-loss scaling laws that relate losses across pretraining datasets and downstream tasks have emerged as a powerful tool for understanding and improving LLM performance. In this work, we investigate which factors most strongly influence loss-to-loss scaling. Our experiments reveal that the pretraining data and tokenizer determine the scaling trend. In contrast, model size, optimization hyperparameters, and even significant architectural differences, such as between transformer-based models like Llama and state-space models like Mamba, have limited impact. Consequently, practitioners should carefully curate suitable pretraining datasets for optimal downstream performance, while architectures and other settings can be freely optimized for training efficiency.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Foundation models, or large atomistic models (LAMs), aim to universally represent the ground-state potential energy surface (PES) of atomistic systems as defined by density functional theory (DFT). The scaling law is pivotal in the development of large models, suggesting that their generalizability in downstream tasks consistently improves with increased model size, expanded training datasets, and larger computational budgets. In this study, we present DPA3, a multi-layer graph neural network founded on line graph series (LiGS), designed explicitly for the era of LAMs. We demonstrate that the generalization error of the DPA3 model adheres to the scaling law. The scalability in the number of model parameters is attained by stacking additional layers within DPA3. Additionally, the model employs a dataset encoding mechanism that decouples the scaling of training data size from the model size within its multi-task training framework. When trained as problem-oriented potential energy models, the DPA3 model exhibits superior accuracy in the majority of benchmark cases, encompassing systems with diverse features, including molecules, bulk materials, surface and cluster catalysts, two-dimensional materials, and battery materials. When trained as a LAM on the OpenLAM-v1 dataset, the DPA-3.1-3M model exhibits state-of-the-art performance in the LAMBench benchmark suite for LAMs, demonstrating lowest overall zero-shot generalization error across 17 downstream tasks from a broad spectrum of research domains. This performance suggests superior accuracy as an out-of-the-box potential model, requiring minimal fine-tuning data for downstream scientific applications.

The success of today's large language models (LLMs) depends on the observation that larger models perform better. However, the origin of this neural scaling law -- the finding that loss decreases as a power law with model size -- remains unclear. Starting from two empirical principles -- that LLMs represent more things than the model dimensions (widths) they have (i.e., representations are superposed), and that words or concepts in language occur with varying frequencies -- we constructed a toy model to study the loss scaling with model size. We found that when superposition is weak, meaning only the most frequent features are represented without interference, the scaling of loss with model size depends on the underlying feature frequency; if feature frequencies follow a power law, so does the loss. In contrast, under strong superposition, where all features are represented but overlap with each other, the loss becomes inversely proportional to the model dimension across a wide range of feature frequency distributions. This robust scaling behavior is explained geometrically: when many more vectors are packed into a lower dimensional space, the interference (squared overlaps) between vectors scales inversely with that dimension. We then analyzed four families of open-sourced LLMs and found that they exhibit strong superposition and quantitatively match the predictions of our toy model. The Chinchilla scaling law turned out to also agree with our results. We conclude that representation superposition is an important mechanism underlying the observed neural scaling laws. We anticipate that these insights will inspire new training strategies and model architectures to achieve better performance with less computation and fewer parameters.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

Recent studies have showcased remarkable capabilities of decoder-only models in many NLP tasks, including translation. Yet, the machine translation field has been largely dominated by encoder-decoder models based on the Transformer architecture. As a consequence, scaling laws of encoder-decoder models for neural machine translation have already been well studied, but decoder-only models have received less attention. This work explores the scaling laws of decoder-only models on the multilingual and multidomain translation task. We trained a collection of six decoder-only models, ranging from 70M to 7B parameters, on a sentence-level, multilingual and multidomain dataset. We conducted a series of experiments showing that the loss of decoder-only models can be estimated using a scaling law similar to the one discovered for large language models, but we also show that this scaling law has difficulties to generalize to too large models or to a different data distribution. We also study different scaling methods and show that scaling the depth and the width of a model lead to similar test loss improvements, but with different impact on the model's efficiency.

When using Large Language Models (LLMs) to support Knowledge Graph Engineering (KGE), one of the first indications when searching for an appropriate model is its size. According to the scaling laws, larger models typically show higher capabilities. However, in practice, resource costs are also an important factor and thus it makes sense to consider the ratio between model performance and costs. The LLM-KG-Bench framework enables the comparison of LLMs in the context of KGE tasks and assesses their capabilities of understanding and producing KGs and KG queries. Based on a dataset created in an LLM-KG-Bench run covering 26 open state-of-the-art LLMs, we explore the model size scaling laws specific to KGE tasks. In our analyses, we assess how benchmark scores evolve between different model size categories. Additionally, we inspect how the general score development of single models and families of models correlates to their size. Our analyses revealed that, with a few exceptions, the model size scaling laws generally also apply to the selected KGE tasks. However, in some cases, plateau or ceiling effects occurred, i.e., the task performance did not change much between a model and the next larger model. In these cases, smaller models could be considered to achieve high cost-effectiveness. Regarding models of the same family, sometimes larger models performed worse than smaller models of the same family. These effects occurred only locally. Hence it is advisable to additionally test the next smallest and largest model of the same family.

Diffusion transformers (DiT) have already achieved appealing synthesis and scaling properties in content recreation, e.g., image and video generation. However, scaling laws of DiT are less explored, which usually offer precise predictions regarding optimal model size and data requirements given a specific compute budget. Therefore, experiments across a broad range of compute budgets, from 1e17 to 6e18 FLOPs are conducted to confirm the existence of scaling laws in DiT for the first time. Concretely, the loss of pretraining DiT also follows a power-law relationship with the involved compute. Based on the scaling law, we can not only determine the optimal model size and required data but also accurately predict the text-to-image generation loss given a model with 1B parameters and a compute budget of 1e21 FLOPs. Additionally, we also demonstrate that the trend of pre-training loss matches the generation performances (e.g., FID), even across various datasets, which complements the mapping from compute to synthesis quality and thus provides a predictable benchmark that assesses model performance and data quality at a reduced cost.

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

In recent years, pretraining models have made significant advancements in the fields of natural language processing (NLP), computer vision (CV), and life sciences. The significant advancements in NLP and CV are predominantly driven by the expansion of model parameters and data size, a phenomenon now recognized as the scaling laws. However, research exploring scaling law in molecular pretraining models remains unexplored. In this work, we present Uni-Mol2 , an innovative molecular pretraining model that leverages a two-track transformer to effectively integrate features at the atomic level, graph level, and geometry structure level. Along with this, we systematically investigate the scaling law within molecular pretraining models, characterizing the power-law correlations between validation loss and model size, dataset size, and computational resources. Consequently, we successfully scale Uni-Mol2 to 1.1 billion parameters through pretraining on 800 million conformations, making it the largest molecular pretraining model to date. Extensive experiments show consistent improvement in the downstream tasks as the model size grows. The Uni-Mol2 with 1.1B parameters also outperforms existing methods, achieving an average 27% improvement on the QM9 and 14% on COMPAS-1D dataset.

The performance of embodied agents has been shown to improve by increasing model parameters, dataset size, and compute. This has been demonstrated in domains from robotics to video games, when generative learning objectives on offline datasets (pre-training) are used to model an agent's behavior (imitation learning) or their environment (world modeling). This paper characterizes the role of scale in these tasks more precisely. Going beyond the simple intuition that `bigger is better', we show that the same types of power laws found in language modeling (e.g. between loss and optimal model size), also arise in world modeling and imitation learning. However, the coefficients of these laws are heavily influenced by the tokenizer, task \& architecture -- this has important implications on the optimal sizing of models and data.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

Data scaling has revolutionized fields like natural language processing and computer vision, providing models with remarkable generalization capabilities. In this paper, we investigate whether similar data scaling laws exist in robotics, particularly in robotic manipulation, and whether appropriate data scaling can yield single-task robot policies that can be deployed zero-shot for any object within the same category in any environment. To this end, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study on data scaling in imitation learning. By collecting data across numerous environments and objects, we study how a policy's generalization performance changes with the number of training environments, objects, and demonstrations. Throughout our research, we collect over 40,000 demonstrations and execute more than 15,000 real-world robot rollouts under a rigorous evaluation protocol. Our findings reveal several intriguing results: the generalization performance of the policy follows a roughly power-law relationship with the number of environments and objects. The diversity of environments and objects is far more important than the absolute number of demonstrations; once the number of demonstrations per environment or object reaches a certain threshold, additional demonstrations have minimal effect. Based on these insights, we propose an efficient data collection strategy. With four data collectors working for one afternoon, we collect sufficient data to enable the policies for two tasks to achieve approximately 90% success rates in novel environments with unseen objects.

Recently, the Muon optimizer based on matrix orthogonalization has demonstrated strong results in training small-scale language models, but the scalability to larger models has not been proven. We identify two crucial techniques for scaling up Muon: (1) adding weight decay and (2) carefully adjusting the per-parameter update scale. These techniques allow Muon to work out-of-the-box on large-scale training without the need of hyper-parameter tuning. Scaling law experiments indicate that Muon achieves sim!2times computational efficiency compared to AdamW with compute optimal training. Based on these improvements, we introduce Moonlight, a 3B/16B-parameter Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) model trained with 5.7T tokens using Muon. Our model improves the current Pareto frontier, achieving better performance with much fewer training FLOPs compared to prior models. We open-source our distributed Muon implementation that is memory optimal and communication efficient. We also release the pretrained, instruction-tuned, and intermediate checkpoints to support future research.

Scaling laws are powerful tools to predict the performance of large language models. However, current scaling laws fall short of accounting for inference costs. In this work, we first show that model architecture affects inference latency, where models of the same size can have up to 3.5x difference in latency. To tackle this challenge, we modify the Chinchilla scaling laws to co-optimize the model parameter count, the number of training tokens, and the model architecture. Due to the reason that models of similar training loss exhibit gaps in downstream evaluation, we also propose a novel method to train inference-efficient models based on the revised scaling laws. We perform extensive empirical studies to fit and evaluate our inference-aware scaling laws. We vary model parameters from 80M to 1B, training tokens from 1.6B to 30B, and model shapes, training a total of 63 models. Guided by our inference-efficient scaling law and model selection method, we release the Morph-1B model, which improves inference latency by 1.8x while maintaining accuracy on downstream tasks compared to open-source models, pushing the Pareto frontier of accuracy-latency tradeoff.

Why do we build local large language models (LLMs)? What should a local LLM learn from the target language? Which abilities can be transferred from other languages? Do language-specific scaling laws exist? To explore these research questions, we evaluated 35 Japanese, English, and multilingual LLMs on 19 evaluation benchmarks for Japanese and English, taking Japanese as a local language. Adopting an observational approach, we analyzed correlations of benchmark scores, and conducted principal component analysis (PCA) on the scores to derive ability factors of local LLMs. We found that training on English text can improve the scores of academic subjects in Japanese (JMMLU). In addition, it is unnecessary to specifically train on Japanese text to enhance abilities for solving Japanese code generation, arithmetic reasoning, commonsense, and reading comprehension tasks. In contrast, training on Japanese text could improve question-answering tasks about Japanese knowledge and English-Japanese translation, which indicates that abilities for solving these two tasks can be regarded as Japanese abilities for LLMs. Furthermore, we confirmed that the Japanese abilities scale with the computational budget for Japanese text.

The recent release of OpenAI's o1 models and other similar frameworks showcasing test-time scaling laws has demonstrated their exceptional capability to tackle complex reasoning tasks. Inspired by this, subsequent research has revealed that such test-time scaling laws hinge on the model's ability to search both within a single response (intra-response) and across multiple responses (inter-response) during training. Crucially, beyond selecting a single optimal response, the model must also develop robust self-correction capabilities within its own outputs. However, training models to achieve effective self-evaluation and self-correction remains a significant challenge, heavily dependent on the quality of self-reflection data. In this paper, we address this challenge by focusing on enhancing the quality of self-reflection data generation for complex problem-solving, which can subsequently improve the training of next-generation large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we explore how manually triggering a model's self-correction mechanisms can improve performance on challenging reasoning tasks. To this end, we propose a novel iterative deepening sampling algorithm framework designed to enhance self-correction and generate higher-quality samples. Through extensive experiments on Math500 and AIME benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method achieves a higher success rate on difficult tasks and provide detailed ablation studies to analyze its effectiveness across diverse settings.

Neural scaling laws offer valuable insights for designing robust sequence processing architectures. While these laws have been extensively characterized in other modalities, their behavior in speech remains comparatively underexplored. In this work, we introduce OWLS, an open-access, reproducible suite of multilingual speech recognition and translation models spanning 0.25B to 18B parameters, with the 18B version being the largest speech model, to the best of our knowledge. OWLS leverages up to 360K hours of public speech data across 150 languages, enabling a systematic investigation into how data, model, and compute scaling each influence performance in multilingual speech tasks. We use OWLS to derive neural scaling laws, showing how final performance can be reliably predicted when scaling. One of our key findings is that scaling enhances performance on low-resource languages/dialects, helping to mitigate bias and improve the accessibility of speech technologies. Finally, we show how OWLS can be used to power new research directions by discovering emergent abilities in large-scale speech models. Model checkpoints will be released on https://huggingface.co/collections/espnet/owls-scaling-laws-for-speech-recognition-and-translation-67ab7f991c194065f057ce8d for future studies.

Wearable sensors have become ubiquitous thanks to a variety of health tracking features. The resulting continuous and longitudinal measurements from everyday life generate large volumes of data; however, making sense of these observations for scientific and actionable insights is non-trivial. Inspired by the empirical success of generative modeling, where large neural networks learn powerful representations from vast amounts of text, image, video, or audio data, we investigate the scaling properties of sensor foundation models across compute, data, and model size. Using a dataset of up to 40 million hours of in-situ heart rate, heart rate variability, electrodermal activity, accelerometer, skin temperature, and altimeter per-minute data from over 165,000 people, we create LSM, a multimodal foundation model built on the largest wearable-signals dataset with the most extensive range of sensor modalities to date. Our results establish the scaling laws of LSM for tasks such as imputation, interpolation and extrapolation, both across time and sensor modalities. Moreover, we highlight how LSM enables sample-efficient downstream learning for tasks like exercise and activity recognition.

Generalist imitation learning policies trained on large datasets show great promise for solving diverse manipulation tasks. However, to ensure generalization to different conditions, policies need to be trained with data collected across a large set of environmental factor variations (e.g., camera pose, table height, distractors) - a prohibitively expensive undertaking, if done exhaustively. We introduce a principled method for deciding what data to collect and how much to collect for each factor by constructing factored scaling curves (FSC), which quantify how policy performance varies as data scales along individual or paired factors. These curves enable targeted data acquisition for the most influential factor combinations within a given budget. We evaluate the proposed method through extensive simulated and real-world experiments, across both training-from-scratch and fine-tuning settings, and show that it boosts success rates in real-world tasks in new environments by up to 26% over existing data-collection strategies. We further demonstrate how factored scaling curves can effectively guide data collection using an offline metric, without requiring real-world evaluation at scale.

Scaling laws predict that the performance of large language models improves with increasing model size and data size. In practice, pre-training has been relying on massive web crawls, using almost all data sources publicly available on the internet so far. However, this pool of natural data does not grow at the same rate as the compute supply. Furthermore, the availability of high-quality texts is even more limited: data filtering pipelines often remove up to 99% of the initial web scrapes to achieve state-of-the-art. To address the "data wall" of pre-training scaling, our work explores ways to transform and recycle data discarded in existing filtering processes. We propose REWIRE, REcycling the Web with guIded REwrite, a method to enrich low-quality documents so that they could become useful for training. This in turn allows us to increase the representation of synthetic data in the final pre-training set. Experiments at 1B, 3B and 7B scales of the DCLM benchmark show that mixing high-quality raw texts and our rewritten texts lead to 1.0, 1.3 and 2.5 percentage points improvement respectively across 22 diverse tasks, compared to training on only filtered web data. Training on the raw-synthetic data mix is also more effective than having access to 2x web data. Through further analysis, we demonstrate that about 82% of the mixed in texts come from transforming lower-quality documents that would otherwise be discarded. REWIRE also outperforms related approaches of generating synthetic data, including Wikipedia-style paraphrasing, question-answer synthesizing and knowledge extraction. These results suggest that recycling web texts holds the potential for being a simple and effective approach for scaling pre-training data.

Scaling up the size of vision models has been the de facto standard to obtain more powerful visual representations. In this work, we discuss the point beyond which larger vision models are not necessary. First, we demonstrate the power of Scaling on Scales (S^2), whereby a pre-trained and frozen smaller vision model (e.g., ViT-B or ViT-L), run over multiple image scales, can outperform larger models (e.g., ViT-H or ViT-G) on classification, segmentation, depth estimation, Multimodal LLM (MLLM) benchmarks, and robotic manipulation. Notably, S^2 achieves state-of-the-art performance in detailed understanding of MLLM on the V* benchmark, surpassing models such as GPT-4V. We examine the conditions under which S^2 is a preferred scaling approach compared to scaling on model size. While larger models have the advantage of better generalization on hard examples, we show that features of larger vision models can be well approximated by those of multi-scale smaller models. This suggests most, if not all, of the representations learned by current large pre-trained models can also be obtained from multi-scale smaller models. Our results show that a multi-scale smaller model has comparable learning capacity to a larger model, and pre-training smaller models with S^2 can match or even exceed the advantage of larger models. We release a Python package that can apply S^2 on any vision model with one line of code: https://github.com/bfshi/scaling_on_scales.

Self-supervised learning aims to learn representations from the data itself without explicit manual supervision. Existing efforts ignore a crucial aspect of self-supervised learning - the ability to scale to large amount of data because self-supervision requires no manual labels. In this work, we revisit this principle and scale two popular self-supervised approaches to 100 million images. We show that by scaling on various axes (including data size and problem 'hardness'), one can largely match or even exceed the performance of supervised pre-training on a variety of tasks such as object detection, surface normal estimation (3D) and visual navigation using reinforcement learning. Scaling these methods also provides many interesting insights into the limitations of current self-supervised techniques and evaluations. We conclude that current self-supervised methods are not 'hard' enough to take full advantage of large scale data and do not seem to learn effective high level semantic representations. We also introduce an extensive benchmark across 9 different datasets and tasks. We believe that such a benchmark along with comparable evaluation settings is necessary to make meaningful progress. Code is at: https://github.com/facebookresearch/fair_self_supervision_benchmark.

Scaling laws have been recently employed to derive compute-optimal model size (number of parameters) for a given compute duration. We advance and refine such methods to infer compute-optimal model shapes, such as width and depth, and successfully implement this in vision transformers. Our shape-optimized vision transformer, SoViT, achieves results competitive with models that exceed twice its size, despite being pre-trained with an equivalent amount of compute. For example, SoViT-400m/14 achieves 90.3% fine-tuning accuracy on ILSRCV2012, surpassing the much larger ViT-g/14 and approaching ViT-G/14 under identical settings, with also less than half the inference cost. We conduct a thorough evaluation across multiple tasks, such as image classification, captioning, VQA and zero-shot transfer, demonstrating the effectiveness of our model across a broad range of domains and identifying limitations. Overall, our findings challenge the prevailing approach of blindly scaling up vision models and pave a path for a more informed scaling.

Climbing grades are used to classify a climbing route based on its perceived difficulty, and have come to play a central role in the sport of rock climbing. Recently, the first statistically rigorous method for estimating climbing grades from whole-history ascent data was described, based on the dynamic Bradley-Terry model for games between players of time-varying ability. In this paper, we implement inference under the whole-history rating model using Markov chain Monte Carlo and apply the method to a curated data set made up of climbers who climb regularly. We use these data to get an estimate of the model's fundamental scale parameter m, which defines the proportional increase in difficulty associated with an increment of grade. We show that the data conform to assumptions that the climbing grade scale is a logarithmic scale of difficulty, like decibels or stellar magnitude. We estimate that an increment in Ewbank, French and UIAA climbing grade systems corresponds to 2.1, 2.09 and 2.13 times increase in difficulty respectively, assuming a logistic model of probability of success as a function of grade. Whereas we find that the Vermin scale for bouldering (V-grade scale) corresponds to a 3.17 increase in difficulty per grade increment. In addition, we highlight potential connections between the logarithmic properties of climbing grade scales and the psychophysical laws of Weber and Fechner.

The scaling hypothesis motivates the expansion of models past trillions of parameters as a path towards better performance. Recent significant developments, such as GPT-3, have been driven by this conjecture. However, as models scale-up, training them efficiently with backpropagation becomes difficult. Because model, pipeline, and data parallelism distribute parameters and gradients over compute nodes, communication is challenging to orchestrate: this is a bottleneck to further scaling. In this work, we argue that alternative training methods can mitigate these issues, and can inform the design of extreme-scale training hardware. Indeed, using a synaptically asymmetric method with a parallelizable backward pass, such as Direct Feedback Alignement, communication needs are drastically reduced. We present a photonic accelerator for Direct Feedback Alignment, able to compute random projections with trillions of parameters. We demonstrate our system on benchmark tasks, using both fully-connected and graph convolutional networks. Our hardware is the first architecture-agnostic photonic co-processor for training neural networks. This is a significant step towards building scalable hardware, able to go beyond backpropagation, and opening new avenues for deep learning.

Achieving optimal performance of video diffusion transformers within given data and compute budget is crucial due to their high training costs. This necessitates precisely determining the optimal model size and training hyperparameters before large-scale training. While scaling laws are employed in language models to predict performance, their existence and accurate derivation in visual generation models remain underexplored. In this paper, we systematically analyze scaling laws for video diffusion transformers and confirm their presence. Moreover, we discover that, unlike language models, video diffusion models are more sensitive to learning rate and batch size, two hyperparameters often not precisely modeled. To address this, we propose a new scaling law that predicts optimal hyperparameters for any model size and compute budget. Under these optimal settings, we achieve comparable performance and reduce inference costs by 40.1% compared to conventional scaling methods, within a compute budget of 1e10 TFlops. Furthermore, we establish a more generalized and precise relationship among validation loss, any model size, and compute budget. This enables performance prediction for non-optimal model sizes, which may also be appealed under practical inference cost constraints, achieving a better trade-off.