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May 19

PreScam: A Benchmark for Predicting Scam Progression from Early Conversations

Conversational scams, such as romance and investment scams, are emerging as a major form of online fraud. Unlike one-shot scam lures such as fake lottery or unpaid toll messages, they unfold through multi-turn conversations in which scammers gradually manipulate victims using evolving psychological techniques. However, existing research mainly focuses on static scam detection or synthetic scams, leaving open whether language models can understand how real-world scams progress over time. We introduce PreScam, a benchmark for modeling scam progression from early conversations. Built from user-submitted scam reports, PreScam filters and structures 177,989 raw reports into 11,573 conversational scam instances spanning 20 scam categories. Each instance is hierarchically structured according to the scam lifecycle defined by the proposed scam kill chain, and further annotated at the turn level with scammer psychological actions and victim responses. We benchmark models on two tasks: real-time termination prediction, which estimates whether a conversation is approaching the termination stage, and scammer action prediction, which forecasts the scammer's subsequent actions. Results show a clear gap between surface-level fluency and progression modeling: supervised encoders substantially outperform zero-shot LLMs on real-time termination prediction, while next-action prediction remains only moderately successful even for strong LLMs. Taken together, these results show that current models can capture some scam-related cues, yet still struggle to track how risk escalates and how manipulation unfolds across turns.

PiMRef: Detecting and Explaining Ever-evolving Spear Phishing Emails with Knowledge Base Invariants

Phishing emails are a critical component of the cybercrime kill chain due to their wide reach and low cost. Their ever-evolving nature renders traditional rule-based and feature-engineered detectors ineffective in the ongoing arms race between attackers and defenders. The rise of large language models (LLMs) further exacerbates the threat, enabling attackers to craft highly convincing phishing emails at minimal cost. This work demonstrates that LLMs can generate psychologically persuasive phishing emails tailored to victim profiles, successfully bypassing nearly all commercial and academic detectors. To defend against such threats, we propose PiMRef, the first reference-based phishing email detector that leverages knowledge-based invariants. Our core insight is that persuasive phishing emails often contain disprovable identity claims, which contradict real-world facts. PiMRef reframes phishing detection as an identity fact-checking task. Given an email, PiMRef (i) extracts the sender's claimed identity, (ii) verifies the legitimacy of the sender's domain against a predefined knowledge base, and (iii) detects call-to-action prompts that push user engagement. Contradictory claims are flagged as phishing indicators and serve as human-understandable explanations. Compared to existing methods such as D-Fence, HelpHed, and ChatSpamDetector, PiMRef boosts precision by 8.8% with no loss in recall on standard benchmarks like Nazario and PhishPot. In a real-world evaluation of 10,183 emails across five university accounts over three years, PiMRef achieved 92.1% precision, 87.9% recall, and a median runtime of 0.05s, outperforming the state-of-the-art in both effectiveness and efficiency.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 20, 2025