Daily Papers

Agent benchmarks increasingly evaluate repository editing, web research, terminal use, and long-horizon interaction. Their scores support capability claims only when the evaluation protocol keeps the intended capability necessary for success. Recent reward-hacking benchmarks and system reports show that agents can instead recover public solutions, read evaluation artifacts, infer generator structure, manipulate feedback, or benefit from invalid scoring paths; existing responses do not provide a common procedure for attributing these shortcuts and quantifying their effect across benchmarks. We formulate protocol validity and introduce HackDetect, a post-hoc audit that identifies an exposure, determines how the agent used it, and assesses whether the resulting score is misleading. We quantify score inflation with the Mislead gap, defined as the exploit score minus the intended score. We audit 2,385 traces across 15 agent benchmarks and find evidence of exposures and reward hacking in 67.0% of Frontier Science traces and 66.7% of AutoLab tasks. Across paired comparisons, we measure score inflation of 0.45-1.00, showing that benchmark reports should provide evidence that scores reflect the intended capability.

AI is increasingly used to support scientific peer review, from manuscript screening, reviewer assistance to editorial triage. Although such systems promise to reduce reviewer burden and accelerate publication, their robustness to strategic manipulation remains poorly understood. Here we show that AI-mediated peer review is vulnerable to a simple, low-cost manipulation: superficial rephrasing of the manuscript abstract. Without changing the underlying scientific content and communication, and even without knowledge of the reviewing model, adversarially rewritten abstracts substantially improve AI review outcomes. We see this across disciplines and publication venues, for both human-written and AI-generated papers. Our strongest attack achieves an attack-success-rate of about 38%, increasing acceptance ratings by +1.31 for Gemini 3 Flash reviewers and by +0.88 for GPT 5.4 Mini reviewers on a 10-point scale. When the original AI review suggests 'reject', the success rate rises to more than 50%. This effect extends beyond overall score inflation, increasing review confidence and scores on core scientific criteria such as soundness, significance and perceived contribution. The attack is practical, requiring only about 5 minutes and $1 for a 10-page AI conference submission, and is hard to distinguish from ordinary scientific editing. Inflated AI reviews could bias downstream human decision-making, shifting editorial recommendations from rejection towards acceptance. These findings reveal a general vulnerability in AI-assisted scientific evaluation: when AI-generated review influence editorial decisions, authors may be incentivized to optimize manuscripts for AI judgment rather than scientific merit. Our results suggest that AI tools should not be treated as neutral evaluators in high-stakes peer review without systematic robustness testing, transparent safeguards and careful human oversight.

Long-horizon tool agents often make useful progress without reaching terminal success, motivating partial-credit evaluation. Yet evaluators may reward milestones that were temporary, later reversed, or not attributable to the evaluated agent. Comparing an honest trajectory with a higher-scoring adversarial one is inconclusive if the latter made more genuine progress. We introduce PartHackBench, a controlled methodology that removes this confound. A private certifier admits a pair only when its trajectories match component-wise in both current-state predicate satisfaction and standardized agent attribution; score inflation, defined as f(A) - f(H), is measured only afterward. In 18 sealed held-out tasks in PB-CSTE, the frozen historical-target run produced matched adversaries for 15 tasks. Historical credit yielded mean inflation of .252, conditional attack success of 10/15, end-to-end yield of 10/18, and detected none of 14 strict rollbacks. Semantic LLM judges were more resistant but remained vulnerable, especially under evaluator-targeted attacks, while PB-CSTE current-state controls, defined as exact functions of the certified components, yielded zero inflation by construction. PartHackBench thus provides a certified control for testing whether evaluator credit changes while all benchmark-defined task-relevant progress remains fixed.

Forced alignment estimates the timestamps of each word, phone or character in speech given its transcript. Published comparisons normalize transcripts, split the data and match boundaries differently, so their numbers cannot be read together. We present FA-Bench, an open framework that fixes those choices once and releases the code, splits, phone mapping, text normalization and scoring script, with results published periodically. Track 1 gives every aligner the reference transcript and Track 2 gives it a recognizer's output, on the same audio, clean and degraded four ways, with 21 open models and 9 commercial APIs under a unified protocol. We score every boundary of an utterance and check the two labels beside it, so a word the recognizer missed or invented is charged. Using a tolerance-based F1 as our primary metric eliminates the 9% to 14% score inflation that standard MAE causes on recognition-dependent systems in conversational speech. We then group boundaries by position and how many adjacent words were recognized correctly, which shows where a system lost the score. We discovered systematic bias in how current systems time words, with Whisper about 150 ms early and several commercial ASR APIs over 50 ms late. Code and results are at https://github.com/olewave/fa-bench

Multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) has been a popular format for evaluating and reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) of modern multimodal language models. Its constrained output format allows for simplified, deterministic automatic verification. However, we find that the options may leak exploitable signals, which makes the accuracy metrics unreliable for indicating real capabilities and encourages explicit or implicit answer guessing behaviors during RFT. We propose ReVeL (Rewrite and Verify by LLM), a framework that rewrites multiple-choice questions into open-form questions while keeping answers verifiable whenever possible. The framework categorizes questions according to different answer types, apply different rewriting and verification schemes, respectively. When applied for RFT, we converted 20k MCQA examples and use GRPO to finetune Qwen2.5-VL models. Models trained on ReVeL-OpenQA match MCQA accuracy on multiple-choice benchmarks and improve OpenQA accuracy by about six percentage points, indicating better data efficiency and more robust reward signals than MCQA-based training. When used for evaluation, ReVeL also reveals up to 20 percentage points of score inflation in MCQA benchmarks (relative to OpenQA), improves judging accuracy, and reduces both cost and latency. We will release code and data publicly.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) saturate elementary benchmarks, the research frontier has shifted from generation to the reliability of automated evaluation. We demonstrate that standard "LLM-as-a-Judge" protocols suffer from a systematic Alignment Gap when applied to upper-undergraduate to early graduate level mathematics. To quantify this, we introduce QEDBench, the first large-scale dual-rubric alignment benchmark to systematically measure alignment with human experts on university-level math proofs by contrasting course-specific rubrics against expert common knowledge criteria. By deploying a dual-evaluation matrix (7 judges x 5 solvers) against 1,000+ hours of human evaluation, we reveal that certain frontier evaluators like Claude Opus 4.5, DeepSeek-V3, Qwen 2.5 Max, and Llama 4 Maverick exhibit significant positive bias (up to +0.18, +0.20, +0.30, +0.36 mean score inflation, respectively). Furthermore, we uncover a critical reasoning gap in the discrete domain: while Gemini 3.0 Pro achieves state-of-the-art performance (0.91 average human evaluation score), other reasoning models like GPT-5 Pro and Claude Sonnet 4.5 see their performance significantly degrade in discrete domains. Specifically, their average human evaluation scores drop to 0.72 and 0.63 in Discrete Math, and to 0.74 and 0.50 in Graph Theory. In addition to these research results, we also release QEDBench as a public benchmark for evaluating and improving AI judges. Our benchmark is publicly published at https://github.com/qqliu/Yale-QEDBench.

Evaluating test cases automatically generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) is a critical yet challenging task. Existing benchmarks often evaluate the exclusion ratio on large, unstructured collections of wrong codes, suffering from high computational costs and score inflation. Furthermore, they inadvertently reward generators that detect common, trivial bugs, while failing to penalize their inability to identify rare yet critical faults. In this work, we connect two fundamental questions: (1) What is the minimal set of wrong codes sufficient to represent the entire error space? and (2) What is the minimal set of test cases needed to distinguish them? We introduce a novel framework that formalizes benchmark construction as finding an optimal diagnostic basis in a binary code-test matrix, where rows represent wrong codes and columns represent test case results. The rank of this matrix specifies the minimal number of independent error patterns (wrong codes) and provides a tight upper bound on the number of test cases required for complete fault coverage. Our objective is to identify a basis of size equal to the matrix rank that maximizes internal diversity. To tackle this NP-hard problem, we propose WrongSelect, an efficient approximation algorithm to select maximally diverse wrong codes. Applying this framework to millions of competitive programming submissions, we construct TC-Bench, a compact, diverse, and inflation-resistant benchmark. Extensive experiments show that even the most advanced test case generation methods achieve only ~60% exclusion rates on TC-Bench, exposing a significant gap in their diagnostic power and highlighting substantial room for future improvement. Our dataset is available at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/Luoberta/TC-Bench and our code is at: https://github.com/Luowaterbi/TC-Bench.

Self-improving LLM agents increasingly learn from experience without updating any weights. Each episode is stored in an external memory, scored, and retrieved for similar future tasks to shape later behavior. Viewed through a reward lens, the stored score is a proxy reward for an implicit, non-parametric policy. Each retrieved episode then becomes a policy-improvement step whose reliability hinges on how that score is produced. In deployment, ground-truth labels are unavailable, so the stored reward is at best an LLM assessment. This substitution creates a failure mode, the *Echo Gap*, across the memory-based self-improving agents and model families studied. Incorrect episodes receive inflated rewards; thus, the agent preferentially reuses the very mistakes it has most confident in. Because the error compounds through memory rather than averaging out and the confirming judge's errors remain correlated with the original self-grading bias, so it cannot identify which memories are overvalued. The missing property is formalized as the *Error-Independence Assumption* (EIA), which we prove is a *necessary* condition for correcting the inflation, not merely a description of a good verifier: a usable signal must track truth *and* decorrelate its error from the memory bias, and the recoverable payoff is a closed-form function of exactly those two quantities. We further show the inflation compounds not only when retrieval ranks by the stored score but also under plain similarity retrieval which is the regime the deployed agent uses. Finally, the answer-free de-inflation algorithm LUCID delivers a consistent end-to-end gain on the BIRD text-to-SQL benchmark. It raises execution accuracy to 56.9%, above both a Memento-style self-graded agent (54.0%, a +2.9-point mean gain across seeds) and a memory-less agent of identical architecture (52.4%).

A benchmark score credits final answers, but not the route by which an item can be answered. In medical multimodal multiple-choice questions (MCQs), this distinction matters because a correct answer can be supported by the intended image finding or by benchmark-preserved cues in the wording of answers, non-visual clinical text, visible image text, artificial annotations, or device/context artifacts. We call the resulting score-level overinterpretation reasoning inflation. Here, a route is an observable input path that can support answer selection, not a claim about the model's hidden cognition. Across six medical multimodal MCQ datasets, we separate candidate cues from behavioral evidence through prompt- and image-side audits, modality ablations, and matched repairs that preserve the medical target and answer key. In a 13-configuration open-model panel, full-input accuracy is 62.63%, while text-only and options-only settings achieve 53.96% and 29.71%, respectively. Removing length-gap, absolute/conspicuous, and spatial/prepositional cues lowers accuracy by 6.58, 3.50, and 4.77 percentage points. We also construct MedQA-MM, a 1,000-item shortcut-mitigated subset, where text-only and options-only accuracy fall to 5.21% and 12.33%. This does not imply that models never use images; it shows that medical image-reasoning claims require route-level evidence.

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training improves the reward alignment of flow-based generators, but often degrades perceptual quality in ways that are not captured by the reward proxy. We identify a simple structural signature of this drift: across three post-training methods (NFT, AWM, DPO), RL fine-tuning inflates the per-step velocity norm |v_θ| by 5% to 15% relative to the reference. A form of norm inflation has been studied in classifier-free guidance (CFG), where rescaling the velocity back to a reference norm at inference time can mitigate the resulting artifacts. However, this inference-time correction does not transfer cleanly to RL: rescaling v_θ to match |v_{ref}| at inference time neither improves reward nor fixes the quality degradation, because the inflation is co-adapted into the model weights. Furthermore, an adjoint sensitivity analysis shows that velocity magnitude rescaling carries no coherent first-order reward signal at the batch level, indicating that suppressing norm inflation is unlikely to remove a consistently reward-carrying component. Since inference-time renormalization fails while norm suppression carries no reward cost, training-time intervention is the appropriate strategy. Together, these findings motivate \methodname, a hinge penalty that activates only when |v_θ| exceeds |v_{ref}| and composes additively with any velocity-local base loss. Across two base models, three post-training methods, and two reward proxies, \methodname consistently improves MLLM-judged image quality and forensic realism while preserving reward, with gains that amplify under few-step inference and are not explained by early stopping.

This study explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) into classic inflation nowcasting frameworks, particularly in light of high inflation volatility periods such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose InflaBERT, a BERT-based LLM fine-tuned to predict inflation-related sentiment in news. We use this model to produce NEWS, an index capturing the monthly sentiment of the news regarding inflation. Incorporating our expectation index into the Cleveland Fed's model, which is only based on macroeconomic autoregressive processes, shows a marginal improvement in nowcast accuracy during the pandemic. This highlights the potential of combining sentiment analysis with traditional economic indicators, suggesting further research to refine these methodologies for better real-time inflation monitoring. The source code is available at https://github.com/paultltc/InflaBERT.

Does microeconomic heterogeneity help to forecast aggregate inflation in a non-stationary environment? We develop a scan test for whether one forecast outperforms another, over an interval with unknown starting point and duration. To exploit any occasional forecasting power that the scan test detects, we design an adaptive machine learning pipeline. We encode the distribution of price changes into a high-dimensional vector, which we combine with a gradient boosted trees algorithm. We then combine this micro forecast with other benchmark forecasts, using an adaptive algorithm that makes use of the micro forecast only when it performs well. We apply the pipeline to UK microdata, with four main results. First, the micro forecast outperforms a univariate benchmark, but only in the volatile period after 2020. Second, the scan test detects periods of micro outperformance, so the micro forecast enters the combined forecast. Third, the combined forecast performs comparably to the univariate benchmark before 2020 and better at every horizon after 2020. Fourth, the value of microdata for the combined forecast materializes after 2020. We conclude that microdata are valuable for forecasting aggregate inflation, but only after large shocks.

Large language model (LLM) judges are often used as rewards to train policies on objectives that deterministic verifiers cannot capture. However, these rewards are often collapsed to pass/fail ({0, 1}), which reports the verdict but not how well a response met each criterion. We model each pass/fail verdict as a score on an unreported scale, compared with one cutoff. A stretch of that scale moves every score proportionally toward or away from the cutoff, but never across it, so no verdict changes. A policy is therefore free to apply any stretch without changing anything the panel reports. Under a joint-Gaussian model, a third grade adds a second threshold and removes this affine stretch ambiguity. On MATH and SciBench outputs from one seven-criterion judge, all 14 constructed criterionwise stretches were invisible after binarization but visible with three grades. At n=1{,}024, a test given both population laws had at least 96.5% power at a 1.5times stress. Retaining grades closes one blind spot created by binarization, but verdicts alone remain insufficient as some changes are still indistinguishable from genuine improvement. These include arbitrary within-grade changes and fixed-covariance, loading-aligned mean shifts -- the signature of a sycophancy-shaped lift the panel reads as competence. The shared-factor reference approximation fit MATH and SciBench but not HealthBench, delineating its empirical scope. We recommend keeping at least three grades (for example, asking the judge whether each criterion is fully, partially, or not met and rewarding {0, 0.5, 1}), and externally validating gains along the remaining direction, which no finer scale removes.

Many language tasks have no single answer that can be checked automatically. Rubrics provide criteria for judging responses to these tasks. For reinforcement learning, the resulting verdicts must be combined into a scalar reward. A common approach sums the points assigned to satisfied criteria. Distinct verdict patterns can thus receive the same reward, and the fixed points encode how much each criterion should count, not how strongly its verdict distinguishes the current rollouts. Beyond this aggregation problem, judging the full rubric needs more judge requests as the criterion count grows. To address these limitations, Rubric Response Theory (RRT) measures quality and selects criteria when rubric criteria are monotone indicators of a shared target. Rather than adding assigned points, RRT uses a two parameter item response model that treats the verdict pattern as evidence about scalar quality specific to the rubric. Under this model, its likelihood score maximizes the local signal-to-noise ratio for quality. Its Response Parameter Network (RPN) reads the prompt and criterion text to predict criterion difficulty and discrimination. As the policy distribution changes during training, RRT uses online expectation maximization to update the RPN from current rollout verdicts. With Qwen3.5-4B as the policy, RRT's macro criterion score across Medical, Science, Rubrics as Rewards Science, and RubricBench is 1.7 points above that of group relative policy optimization (GRPO). On hard and very hard criteria in Medical and Science, RRT gains 2.8 to 5.6 points over GRPO. At half the criterion budget, adaptive Fisher selection with a frozen RPN keeps the macro criterion score across four datasets within 0.1 points of GRPO with full judging. These results show RRT can reduce judge requests while remaining competitive with GRPO.

Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment, and known-signal uptake. Across 336 prospective states in controlled learning, 12 Tox21 endpoints, and 24 OpenML tasks, v5's frozen credit decision was inconclusive. Tox21's preregistered ROC AUC interval-score harm test was unmet (D-M=-.0026, 95 percent interval [-.0174, .0104]); OpenML's joint formation, point-equivalence, and repeatability rule was unmet. Matched point-accuracy gains over description remained unconfirmed, and Tox21/OpenML seed-donor intervals spanned zero. Under requested DeepSeek V4 Pro, matched and donor cards reduced secondary Tox21 drift by 64.5 and 59.1 percent. A DeepSeek V4 Flash replay raised matched point MAE from .01823 to .02020 and missed matched-donor interval-score equivalence. OpenML full-card assignment widened nominal 80 percent intervals by 21 percent, with 49.3 percent coverage versus 51.4 percent for description and content in 66/144 cards. Direct-text Flash delivered all 144 notes without detectable matched point-accuracy gain. A researcher-authored mechanism positive control lowered point MAE by 2.60 percentage points versus description. The protocol measures predictive credit for research-agent benchmarks and scientific forecasting; natural-explanation credit remained unconfirmed at the tested donor resolutions.

Markets and policymakers around the world hang on the consequential monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Publicly available textual documentation of their meetings provides insight into members' attitudes about the economy. We use GPT-4 to quantify dissent among members on the topic of inflation. We find that transcripts and minutes reflect the diversity of member views about the macroeconomic outlook in a way that is lost or omitted from the public statements. In fact, diverging opinions that shed light upon the committee's "true" attitudes are almost entirely omitted from the final statements. Hence, we argue that forecasting FOMC sentiment based solely on statements will not sufficiently reflect dissent among the hawks and doves.

Candidate-scoring decision models return a probability distribution over a presented set of answers. Public documentation of one such system, Jev, and of an open counterpart, JevAny, describes three training ingredients that determine what these probabilities estimate: soft targets from larger models, a frozen pretrained backbone and temperature calibration. We analyze each ingredient in Gaussian surrogates where the finite-sample risk can be computed exactly. A student trained on teacher targets inherits the teacher's bias, which more student data does not remove and agreement with the teacher does not reveal. A fixed representation lowers the risk only below an explicit sample-size threshold. In a probit model the exact recalibration map is a temperature scaling, which removes all excess risk only when the teacher's coefficient has the correct direction and otherwise leaves a residual that calibration diagnostics do not detect. Under Luce's choice axiom, candidate scores are coherent across refinements of an event if and only if they aggregate by log-sum-exp. On 231,521 credit card complaints from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, where the decision is whether a complaint ends in monetary relief, a student trained on a logistic teacher's probabilities ends at the teacher's decision cost while a student trained on outcomes goes 8% below it, a 30B model read zero-shot remains worse than the teacher after recalibration, and that model departs from the coherence condition by 17.5 decibans. Pretrained representations reduce the labeled data required and calibration corrects the scale of the probabilities, but neither corrects a biased teacher, so the probabilities have to be checked against realized outcomes.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements are a major source of monetary-policy information, and even subtle changes in their wording can move global financial markets. A central task is therefore to measure the hawkish--dovish stance conveyed in these texts. Existing approaches typically treat stance detection as a standard classification problem, labeling each statement in isolation. However, the interpretation of monetary-policy communication is inherently relative: market reactions depend not only on the tone of a statement, but also on how that tone shifts across meetings. We introduce Delta-Consistent Scoring (DCS), an annotation-free framework that maps frozen large language model (LLM) representations to continuous stance scores by jointly modeling absolute stance and relative inter-meeting shifts. Rather than relying on manual hawkish--dovish labels, DCS uses consecutive meetings as a source of self-supervision. It learns an absolute stance score for each statement and a relative shift score between consecutive statements. A delta-consistency objective encourages changes in absolute scores to align with the relative shifts. This allows DCS to recover a temporally coherent stance trajectory without manual labels. Across four LLM backbones, DCS consistently outperforms supervised probes and LLM-as-judge baselines, achieving up to 71.1% accuracy on sentence-level hawkish--dovish classification. The resulting meeting-level scores are also economically meaningful: they correlate strongly with inflation indicators and are significantly associated with Treasury yield movements. Overall, the results suggest that LLM representations encode monetary-policy signals that can be recovered through relative temporal structure.

Multimodal large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as automated evaluators in clinical settings, yet their scoring behavior on ordinal clinical scales remains poorly understood. We benchmark three frontier LLM families against supervised deep learning models for scoring Clock Drawing Test (CDT) images on two public datasets using the Shulman rubric. While fully fine-tuned Vision Transformers achieve the best calibration (MAE 0.52, within-1 accuracy 91%), zero-shot LLMs remain competitive on tolerance-based agreement (GPT-5 MAE 0.67, within-1 accuracy 92%) despite higher absolute error. However, per-score analysis reveals that all three LLM families exhibit a pronounced central tendency effect (systematic endpoint compression): predictions are systematically compressed toward the middle of the scale, with over-prediction at the low end (score 0 to 1) and under-prediction at the high end (score 5 to 4). This effect disproportionately affects the clinically critical extremes where accurate scoring most impacts screening decisions for cognitive impairment. Targeted ablations show that neither few-shot exemplars spanning the full score range nor removing clinical terminology from the prompt eliminates the effect. Our findings extend the LLM-as-a-judge bias literature from NLP evaluation to clinical assessment, and highlight the need for calibration-aware evaluation and post-hoc calibration before deploying LLM-based raters in high-stakes screening workflows.

This paper evaluates the performance of prominent machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting Indonesia's inflation using the payment system, capital market, and macroeconomic data. We compare the forecasting performance of each ML model, namely shrinkage regression, ensemble learning, and super vector regression, to that of the univariate time series ARIMA and SARIMA models. We examine various out-of-bag sample periods in each ML model to determine the appropriate data-splitting ratios for the regression case study. This study indicates that all ML models produced lower RMSEs and reduced average forecast errors by 45.16 percent relative to the ARIMA benchmark, with the Extreme Gradient Boosting model outperforming other ML models and the benchmark. Using the Shapley value, we discovered that numerous payment system variables significantly predict inflation. We explore the ML forecast using local Shapley decomposition and show the relationship between the explanatory variables and inflation for interpretation. The interpretation of the ML forecast highlights some significant findings and offers insightful recommendations, enhancing previous economic research that uses a more established econometric method. Our findings advocate ML models as supplementary tools for the central bank to predict inflation and support monetary policy.

A model under pushback can correct itself, capitulate, or hold, and one flip rate counts a correction and a capitulation alike. Using SycoLens, a modular replay protocol, we test how user pressure and evaluation settings shape measured flip rates. Each measurement is one stateless replay of an item, a committed answer, and one scripted user line in a fixed form. Every effect is read against a matched control with the line deleted. Pushback wording, committed text, answer format, boundary distance, and ground truth become factors of one instrument; earlier instruments vary one to three of them. Across eleven frontier models from three providers and about 760,000 controlled replays, which models look sycophantic depends on how the user pushes back. Lines that assert the opposite verdict and lines that challenge the answer without asserting one rank the models almost unrelatedly. Flip effects grow several-fold near a model's boundary, yet items answered identically in every screening draw still carry about half of the most-affected totals. On arithmetic tasks where the truth is known, one model re-derives and corrects itself under pressure while another abandons correct answers without written work. On the model tested, a planted derivation lowers release of the answer it argues for, true or wrong, where a bare stated value does not; the wrong answer is corrected much more often than the true one is abandoned. Under a yes/no readout the rankings come closer, entangled with a pressure-induced shift toward "no". One score per model therefore compares different behaviours across models and benchmarks. We condense these dependencies into a reporting profile; the instrument, records, and analyses will be released upon publication.

Some security-development settings require local models that map an objective to an ordered, checkable plan. We present a low-rank decomposition adapter and release a case-disjoint corpus with 24 authored decompositions and 83 derived next-step examples across 24 satellite-security cases. To prevent reference-plan leakage, prompts contain one objective and eight shuffled SPARTA candidates. The evaluation candidate sets are constructed with oracle inclusion of every reference technique, so this study measures selection from a controlled set, not retrieval. On six fixed cases and five decoding seeds, mean scores vary across adapters and prompted Qwen2.5 baselines; a separate greedy check over three adapter training seeds shows non-negligible training variance. A 24-fold greedy leave-one-case-out control at the two compact sizes likewise shows tradeoffs: at 1.5B, adapter precision is 0.583 against 0.480 for two-shot prompting, while recall is 0.586 against 0.660. Case-resampling intervals for adapter precision relative to the strongest prompted baseline cross zero at 1.5B and 7B. The adapter is also substantially more format-compliant, which prevents attributing all score differences to selection. Autoregressive next-step accuracy is 0.08, 0.06, and 0.29 at 0.5B, 1.5B, and 7B. We therefore offer the formulation, leakage-controlled dataset, reproducibility package, and descriptive analysis as a proof of concept, not evidence of a reliable stand-alone decomposition system or a general adapter advantage. A separate diagnostic tests contract reuse.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) evaluations often compare readers after a compressor has changed their evidence. This mixes two questions: which complete pipeline works best, and how much of a reader upgrade survives compression. We show that fixed compression can raise average pipeline accuracy while hiding most of a reader upgrade. We hold questions, retrieved candidates, prompts, scoring, and compressed text fixed while comparing 8-20 readers across five question-answering benchmarks and five compression families. HotpotQA and MuSiQue are the main benchmarks, analyzed under a plan fixed in advance. In the 20-reader HotpotQA panel, the lowest- and highest-scoring readers under raw evidence are 31.8 percentage points (pp) apart before compression but only 7.8pp apart on the same stored output from a HotpotQA-trained RECOMP compressor. On both main benchmarks, lower raw-scoring readers gain more under exact match and token-overlap F1. Reader pairs also change order more often under compressed evidence than in raw replays across question halves. Row-level accounting explains how higher average accuracy and smaller upgrades coexist: compression rescues some wrong answers and damages some correct answers, with a different balance for each reader. We release ragscale to audit declared reader upgrades under raw and fixed compressed evidence. Reader evaluations should run this audit before attributing a compressed-only result to the reader.

In passage reranking, response ranking and multi-document question answering, LLMs can score several candidate documents or responses together in one prompt, each still receiving its own score. Such scorers are selected on ranking quality, but their scores determine a decision: what a score threshold retains, a reader answers, or which chosen/rejected pair enters preference training. Because the candidates share that prompt, reordering them changes their scores. The same query over the same candidates should still yield the same decision. However, equal ranking quality does not imply equal decisions: on passage reranking, five trained scorers within 0.010 nDCG@10 retain sets that overlap by only 0.66-0.84 when reordered. No prompt-time change we test resolves that dependence: the only one that improves ranking quality does not measurably improve decision stability. We introduce order-consistency SFT (OC-SFT), which attenuates it in the weights by penalizing disagreement between a candidate's scores across orderings. It holds ranking quality and leads every decision-stability measure among trained scorers on all three tasks. It is also more stable on 12 base models than order-averaged distillation, which trains on labels averaged across permutations. One OC-SFT permutation retains sets that overlap more than ten averaged off-the-shelf permutations. A comparison of such scorers should therefore report what a threshold retains and a reader answers, not ranking quality alone. Code is available at https://github.com/thomsonreuters/presentation-dependence.

Evaluation budgets in agentic retrieval-augmented generation span questions, search trajectories, and repeated answers. We measure allocation precision, reading efficiency, and cost boundaries using a retrieval-feedback comparison on HotpotQA and MuSiQue. At 34.14--34.39M model tokens, broader question coverage lowers standard error by 33\% versus five reads and 12.6\% versus three trajectories. Archived nested and Q-only forecasts predict these allocations within 4.0\% and 3.5\%, respectively. Depth subsets establish no clear forecasting advantage beyond the two-trajectory audit. One-read variance penalties relative to the fitted optimum at the same token budget are 0--9.9\%, with substantial Pro uncertainty. Under recorded model fees, more questions beat more trajectories at search prices of \$0--1 per 1,000 requests; question-versus-read fee rankings remain unresolved. Temperature zero cuts answer disagreement from 14.3\% to 3.4\% while comparison precision stays similar. \par\medskip\noindentKeywords: Agentic RAG; Evaluation budget; Generalizability theory; Repeated sampling.

Rubric-based reinforcement learning extends reward-driven optimization to open-ended tasks by assigning partial credit to individual response requirements. However, rubric judges can assign a high criterion score even when the information or action it requires is absent from the response, a failure mode we term Vacuous Credit. Such awards persist after the required information is removed and can reverse the sign of a response's GRPO advantage. To address this problem, we introduce MetaRubric, which alternates evidence-aware policy optimization with response-guided rubric adaptation. We construct counterfactual counterparts by changing one task-relevant fact in each prompt. During policy optimization, credit is assigned only when the response contains sufficient evidence to satisfy the required rubric criterion. After each policy-optimization stage, current policy responses guide revisions to original and counterfactual criteria while preserving the meaning of the original prompt's initial rubric as interpreted under each prompt's facts. We also adapt criterion weights at stage boundaries to better address observed policy errors. Across multiple backbones, MetaRubric improves PubMedQA accuracy by 6.00--20.40 percentage points over static-judge GRPO, with further gains on HealthBench-Hard and two multimodal medical benchmarks.

Reward models are central to text-to-image post-training, but visual preference is subjective and better represented as a distribution over rubric scores than as a deterministic scalar. Existing scalar, score-token, and pairwise reward models over-compress uncertainty and fine-grained score differences, while reasoning-based generative rewards provide stronger judgments but are costly to deploy and difficult to use as direct optimization signals. We propose Z-Reward, a teacher-student reward modeling framework that decouples reasoning-heavy judgment from efficient reward deployment. The teacher is a large VLM that uses reasoning to infer rubric-aligned score distributions, and is trained with Group-wise Direct Score Optimization (GDSO), which combines policy-gradient rewards from distribution expectations with direct pointwise and pairwise supervision on score distributions and score gaps. The student is trained with Reasoning-Internalized Score Distillation (RISD), which transfers the teacher's reasoning-conditioned score distribution into a compact VLM without requiring explicit reasoning chains at inference time. On our internally annotated evaluation set, the 27B GDSO teacher reaches 89.6% human preference accuracy, outperforming SFT, RewardDance, and GRPO, while the 9B RISD student reaches 88.6%, outperforming the OPD baseline and closely matching the larger teacher. We further show that Z-Reward can serve as a differentiable reward signal for text-to-image optimization, yielding a 41.3% net human-preference improvement over the SFT baseline.

This study explores the influence of FOMC sentiment on market expectations, focusing on cognitive differences between experts and non-experts. Using sentiment analysis of FOMC minutes, we integrate these insights into a bounded rationality model to examine the impact on inflation expectations. Results show that experts form more conservative expectations, anticipating FOMC stabilization actions, while non-experts react more directly to inflation concerns. A lead-lag analysis indicates that institutions adjust faster, though the gap with individual investors narrows in the short term. These findings highlight the need for tailored communication strategies to better align public expectations with policy goals.

*Reinforcement learning (RL)* can induce substantial reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), but how much of this capability transfers across model scales, and how quickly, remains unclear. We study the scaling properties of *on-policy distillation (OPD)* across *weak-to-strong*, *same-base*, and *strong-to-weak* teacher--student setups. We find that early OPD training dynamics uniformly exhibit a regular *useful-transfer* regime, in which held-out accuracy (the *gold score*, G) rises approximately linearly in d=mathrm{KL(π_θVert π_{ref})}, the square root of token-level reverse KL divergence from the student initialization. In every observed weak-to-strong pair, the student's peak gold score exceeds its teacher's own, so a compact RL expert can transfer capability to a much larger student via OPD. To estimate OPD outcomes, we fit *power laws* for how G_{peak} and the slope of the useful-transfer regime scale with student and teacher parameter counts and with teacher gold score. These laws show that peak gold score improves with teacher scale only up to roughly the student's scale, and that at a matched gold score smaller teachers transfer better, so a teacher's score alone does not define its supervision value. We also study the scaling effects of two OPD variants, bootstrapping weak-to-strong OPD, and the degree of on-policy supervision.

Turn-level metrics are widely used to evaluate properties of multi-turn human-LLM conversations, from safety and sycophancy to dialogue quality. However, consecutive turns within a conversation are not statistically independent -- a fact that virtually all current evaluation pipelines fail to correct for in their statistical inference. We systematically characterize the autocorrelation structure of 66 turn-level metrics across 202 multi-turn conversations (11,639 turn pairs, 5 German-speaking users, 4 LLM platforms) and demonstrate that naive pooled analysis produces severely inflated significance estimates: 42% of associations that appear significant under standard pooled testing fail to survive cluster-robust correction. The inflation varies substantially across categories rather than scaling linearly with autocorrelation: three memoryless families (embedding velocity, directional, differential) aggregate to 14%, while the seven non-memoryless families (thermo-cycle, frame distance, lexical/structural, rolling windows, cumulative, interaction, timestamp) aggregate to 33%, with individual category rates ranging from 0% to 100% depending on per-family effect size. We present a two-stage correction framework combining Chelton (1983) effective degrees of freedom with conversation-level block bootstrap, and validate it on a pre-registered hold-out split where cluster-robust metrics replicate at 57% versus 30% for pooled-only metrics. We provide concrete design principles, a publication checklist, and open-source code for the correction pipeline. A survey of ~30 recent papers at major NLP and AI venues that compute turn-level statistics in LLM evaluations finds that only 4 address temporal dependence at all, and 26 do not correct for it.

Reward models are crucial for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values and intentions. Existing approaches follow either Generative (GRMs) or Discriminative (DRMs) paradigms, yet both suffer from limitations: GRMs typically demand costly point-wise supervision, while DRMs produce uncalibrated relative scores that lack probabilistic interpretation. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel reward modeling paradigm: Probabilistic Reward Model (PRM). Instead of modeling reward as a deterministic scalar, our approach treats it as a random variable, learning a full probability distribution for the quality of each response. To make this paradigm practical, we present its closed-form, discrete realization: the Ordinal Probabilistic Reward Model (OPRM), which discretizes the quality score into a finite set of ordinal ratings. Building on OPRM, we propose a data-efficient training strategy called Region Flooding Tuning (RgFT). It enables rewards to better reflect absolute text quality by incorporating quality-level annotations, which guide the model to concentrate the probability mass within corresponding rating sub-regions. Experiments on various reward model benchmarks show that our method improves accuracy by 2.9%sim7.4% compared to prior reward models, demonstrating strong performance and data efficiency. Analysis of the score distribution provides evidence that our method captures not only relative rankings but also absolute quality.

This study investigates the consistency of feedback ratings generated by OpenAI's GPT-4, a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence language model, across multiple iterations, time spans and stylistic variations. The model rated responses to tasks within the Higher Education (HE) subject domain of macroeconomics in terms of their content and style. Statistical analysis was conducted in order to learn more about the interrater reliability, consistency of the ratings across iterations and the correlation between ratings in terms of content and style. The results revealed a high interrater reliability with ICC scores ranging between 0.94 and 0.99 for different timespans, suggesting that GPT-4 is capable of generating consistent ratings across repetitions with a clear prompt. Style and content ratings show a high correlation of 0.87. When applying a non-adequate style the average content ratings remained constant, while style ratings decreased, which indicates that the large language model (LLM) effectively distinguishes between these two criteria during evaluation. The prompt used in this study is furthermore presented and explained. Further research is necessary to assess the robustness and reliability of AI models in various use cases.

Math reasoning benchmarks have proliferated, yet most lack a per-item difficulty signal grounded in actual human performance. We introduce KCSAT-ML, a decade (2014-2025) of Korean College Scholastic Ability Test (KCSAT; Suneung) mathematics: 664 problems with a 339-item core set carrying official per-item error rates from nationwide cohorts of hundreds of thousands of examinees. We pair the benchmark with Difficulty-aligned Reasoning Gain (DRG): a score-orthogonal metric that asks whether a model's mistakes concentrate on the items humans found hard, or on items humans found easy. Together they expose, across a wide range of VLMs (and LLMs via OCR), three patterns: (i) low-budget accuracy collapses on the high-human-error tail at every model size; (ii) test-time scaling (TTS) raises token use roughly linearly with cohort error rate, while accuracy gains follow a non-monotonic curve; (iii) within a single family, TTS flips between anti-scaling on the hardest items and overthinking on easier ones -- two faces of the same alignment failure. On DRG, models with near-identical accuracy can sit at near-opposite values: one model gets wrong what humans also find hard, while another solves the hardest items yet fails on items humans find easy -- a contrast that aggregate accuracy hides. Our code and dataset builder will be open-sourced at https://github.com/naver-ai/KCSAT-ML.

Probes are the workhorse of interpretability. If a model's hidden states predict a variable, the model is said to represent it. But a probe score has no fixed meaning. An R^2 of 0.6 may only reflect what the input already gives away, and the same score can mean different things on different data. We propose reading every probe score against two reference points: a floor, what a declared set of simple inputs already predicts, and a ceiling, what the full input can predict. The gap between them, the headroom, is the range in which a probe can show that a model computes something beyond the simple inputs. We prove that headroom vanishes in two ways: the target stops depending on a hidden variable the model must infer, or the input stops revealing it. We test this on transformers trained for in-context meta-analysis, which must infer the hidden heterogeneity between studies to weight them correctly, and where both reference points are known. Under distribution shift, probe scores fall and prediction error rises 12--15times, yet the model recovers a similar share of the headroom, indicating that the data lost information, not the representation. We then analyze the real models. The single-cell foundation model scGPT encodes biological variability only partially. We also revisit four influential LLM probing studies, which claim that models represent geography, the state of an Othello board, truth, and the demographics of their users. Against a floor computed from the input text alone, some of these claims hold, while others are largely explained by the text itself.

Rerankers decide which documents users and LLMs see, yet their standard metric, nDCG, relies on human relevance labels that are costly, sparse, noisy, and discretely graded. As rerankers approach each other in quality, nDCG on these labels therefore increasingly fails to separate them. LLM judges could supply dense labels. Relative judgments within one query tell even close candidates apart, yet their scores share no scale across queries. Absolute grades share one scale but are too coarse to distinguish documents of similar relevance. We propose Rubric-Calibrated Preferences (RCP), which combine both kinds of judgment. A listwise Bradley-Terry tournament orders each query's documents, and a rubric of yes/no criteria of increasing stringency provides an absolute standard. Item Response Theory (IRT), which scores test-takers based on their answers to common questions, then uses the shared criteria to put all queries' tournament scores on one scale. RCP's retrieval metric, RCP-nDCG, replaces nDCG's discrete labels with the resulting calibrated relevance probabilities. Against blind grades from 46 external annotators, calibration raises the correlation between a query's mean score and its mean human grade from 0.538 to 0.795. The probabilities rank a useful document above a non-useful one with probability 0.910 (AUC, chance 0.5), versus 0.651 for the benchmark labels. When the annotators' grades prefer one of two rerankers and exactly one metric agrees, that metric is RCP-nDCG in 72.4% of 185 comparisons (chance about 53%). On TREC-DL, RCP-nDCG sides with NIST assessors' grades on every reranker pair that these grades separate significantly. RCP-nDCG also resolves many of nDCG's ties and separates 1.9 times as many reranker pairs on NanoBEIR. Rubric calibration thus turns relative LLM judgments into dense relevance labels that are comparable across queries and agree with human judgment.

Government fiscal policies, particularly annual union budgets, exert significant influence on financial markets. However, real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance remains methodologically challenging and largely unexplored. This study proposes a framework to systematically identify and rank sectors poised to benefit from India's Union Budget announcements. The framework addresses two core tasks: (1) multi-label classification of excerpts from budget transcripts into 81 predefined economic sectors, and (2) performance ranking of these sectors. Leveraging a comprehensive corpus of Indian Union Budget transcripts from 1947 to 2025, we introduce BASIR (Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking), an annotated dataset mapping excerpts from budgetary transcripts to sectoral impacts. Our architecture incorporates fine-tuned embeddings for sector identification, coupled with language models that rank sectors based on their predicted performances. Our results demonstrate 0.605 F1-score in sector classification, and 0.997 NDCG score in predicting ranks of sectors based on post-budget performances. The methodology enables investors and policymakers to quantify fiscal policy impacts through structured, data-driven insights, addressing critical gaps in manual analysis. The annotated dataset has been released under CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 license to advance computational economics research.

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) for open-ended tasks is challenging because responses must satisfy multidimensional criteria without following a single correct generation trajectory. Existing rubric-based reinforcement learning (RL) methods compress fine-grained criterion-level feedback into scalar rewards, making persistent capability gaps difficult to target under limited on-policy exploration. We propose RISE-RL (Rubric-Informed Selective Exploration), which uses repeatedly missed rubric criteria to elicit privileged trajectories that are difficult to discover through unguided exploration alone. RISE-RL retains only trajectories whose complete-rubric reward exceeds the mean reward of natural rollouts, and then re-evaluates them under the original prompt to emphasize behaviors that remain weakly supported by the natural policy. The resulting guidance signal is optimized through a separate auxiliary objective and removed once its additional benefit diminishes. Experiments with 4B and 14B models across writing, chat, health, and science show that RISE-RL achieves the highest mean score on every evaluated benchmark under guidance-free evaluation. Compared with standard Rubric-RL, it improves the average score by 1.3 points at the 4B scale and 3.3 points at the 14B scale, including a 6.0-point gain on CreativeWriting-V3. It also improves creative-writing diversity and yields gains on objectively scored medical and scientific benchmarks. These results indicate that selective internalization through reward filtering and policy support shaping is effective for open-ended reinforcement learning.

Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p < 0.001 but exhibits regime dependence tied to the 2024-2025 rate-cutting cycle. The recession risk signal from KXRECSSNBER proves more stable out of sample, delivering an MSFE ratio of 0.979 with Clark-West p = 0.020. The inflation channel, measured by CPI repricing on KXCPI contracts, predicts altcoin volatility for Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Chainlink with t-statistics ranging from -2.1 to -3.4 and out-of-sample gains for Ethereum at MSFE = 0.959 with p = 0.010 and Solana at p = 0.048. Both the Bitcoin--Fed-dovish and Chainlink--CPI specifications survive Benjamini-Hochberg correction at q = 0.05. Orthogonalization and baseline comparisons against Fed Funds futures, Treasury yields, and the Deribit implied volatility index confirm that these signals carry information not embedded in conventional financial instruments. The sample covers ten Kalshi event series and six cryptocurrency assets over January 2023 to March 2026.

Meaningful scores for forecast verification are essential for developing reliable forecasts, and there has been much effort to develop scores that align well with human perceptions of forecast quality. Whilst many of these scores have intuitive interpretations, relatively little is known about how these scores rank different forecasts, and how scores reflect forecast error. We theoretically explore the behaviour of two scores that fall within the `neighbourhood' paradigm of spatial verification; the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Brier Divergence Skill Score (BDnSS). We investigate how each score ranks forecasts with two types of error; errors in the mean frequency (corresponding to intensity or shape errors) and errors in the standard deviation (corresponding to errors in spatial structure, such as blurring or excess noise). We find that under many situations the FSS assigns higher scores to forecasts that over-predict mean frequency, thus theoretically confirming the need to use the FSS with percentile thresholds. Both scores generally assign higher scores to forecasts with lower neighbourhood standard deviation, a reflection of the `double penalty' problem; however, we observe that size of this effect is larger for the BDnSS than the FSS, showing that the FSS under some situations is less susceptible to the double penalty problem than the BDnSS.

Quantitative research is an iterative loop: a researcher proposes a market hypothesis, implements it as an executable signal, tests it on historical data, and decides what to keep. Existing benchmarks score formulas, code, or individual trading decisions, leaving open whether large language models (LLMs) can complete this loop and produce strategies that work beyond the research period. We introduce Quant-Arena, a benchmark and public leaderboard for end-to-end quantitative research on real A-share market data. A model constructs features and stock-scoring code, receives feedback only on 2022--2023, and freezes one strategy for assessment on the sealed year 2024. A cash-account evaluator applies trading constraints and costs, including market impact estimated from a simulated order book. Scores are dominated by realized excess return and complemented by signal quality and the diversity of features used by the strategy. We evaluate nine frontier models, among which GPT-6 Astra scores highest; yet no model beats the equal-weight market in 2024. Quant-Arena is open to submissions from any model or agent harness.

We present t_0, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: t0-alpha and t0-beta, respectively 102M and 256M parameters. Both condition their forecasts on target history, past covariates, and known-future covariates, without task-specific retraining. Their transformer layers alternate attention along time and across variates. They produce probabilistic forecasts through quantile predictions. Pretraining combines curated public data with synthetic generator families constructed to contain covariate-to-target dependencies. On GIFT-Eval, t0-alpha reaches an aggregate CRPS of 0.4941, and t0-beta a CRPS of 0.4738 and a MASE of 0.6865, third on both and within 4.0% of the best zero-shot TSFM. On fev-bench they score 42.2 and 46.7 in skill, the latter third again and 2.0 points behind the leader. We analyze t0-alpha in depth. Known-future covariates raise its skill by 6.3 percentage points across 30 tasks. The report also examines its calibration, its rollout strategy on long horizons, and its robustness to missing data. On the Victoria electricity-demand benchmark, t0-beta is among the most accurate models with a context of nearly a year. In an independent Macrocosm evaluation of hourly ERCOT prices over 29 months, both cut the MAE of the lagged-price baseline by 38%.

Evaluating software agents on a full benchmark is expensive. A small task subset can preserve agent rankings while yielding inaccurate scores. Historical responses provide useful structure, but tasks with identical source responses can have different outcomes for a new target agent. We introduce Hierarchical Score Posterior Recovery (HSPR), which combines source-fitted response factors with uncertain group success rates. Observed target outcomes update the posteriors over the target latent state and group rates; posterior-guided acquisition selects subsequent tasks. Its score-based criterion equals the expected one-step reduction in full-score posterior variance. Observed successes and posterior-predictive counts for unqueried tasks yield a full-score posterior. The final estimate uses its median with source-selected calibration. At a 10% task budget on four task banks from the SWE-bench family, HSPR achieves the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) on three banks and the lowest maximum absolute error (MaxErr) on all four among the methods compared. Removing group uncertainty or replacing adaptive queries increases macro MAE in the respective controls. Macro MAE decreases across 5-20% budgets.

The rapid release of both language models and benchmarks makes it increasingly costly to evaluate every model on every dataset. In practice, models are often evaluated on different samples, making scores difficult to compare across studies. To address this, we propose a framework based on multidimensional Item Response Theory (IRT) that uses anchor items to calibrate new benchmarks to the evaluation suite while holding previously calibrated item parameters fixed. Our approach supports a realistic evaluation setting in which datasets are introduced over time and models are evaluated only on the datasets available at the time of evaluation, while a fixed anchor set for each dataset is used so that results from different evaluation periods can be compared directly. In large-scale experiments on more than 400 models, our framework predicts full-evaluation performance within 2-3 percentage points using only 100 anchor questions per dataset, with Spearman ρgeq 0.9 for ranking preservation, showing that it is possible to extend benchmark suites over time while preserving score comparability, at a constant evaluation cost per new dataset. Code available at https://github.com/eliyahabba/growing-pains

This paper develops a three-currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework in which corporate credit is treated as a separate economy, connected to the nominal and real economies through synthetic inflation and credit exchange rates. The framework produces a testable identity. Under joint no-arbitrage, the credit spread of an issuer expressed over the inflation-rateindexed risk-free curve equals the same issuer's credit spread expressed over the nominalrate-indexed risk-free curve plus the model-implied breakeven inflation forward at the same maturity. The identity holds within any single calibration of the framework. It is empirically falsifiable across two parallel corporate-bond segments of the same market, in a segmented market the two segments may price different corporate credit economies, and the gap between their implied corporate forwards measures the failure of the shared-credit-economy assumption. Applied to Brazilian debenture markets, the framework delivers a sharp empirical finding. Fifteen large issuers placed paper in both the CDI-indexed general-purpose segment and the IPCA-indexed infrastructure segment between January 2021 and February 2026. The within-issuer triangle residual at the 3-year tenor averages 640 basis points, with crosssectional standard deviation of 26 basis points across the 15 issuer means, and remains stable through both the 2021-2023 BCB tightening cycle and the 2024-2026 easing phase. A retail post-tax indifference benchmark anchored on Lei 12.431 closes the bulk of the residual. The remainder is consistent with institutional participation on the CDI side, contractual asymmetries between debentures with different use-of-proceeds restrictions, and segment-specific liquidity gaps.

Standard reward models typically predict scalar scores that fail to capture the multifaceted nature of response quality in non-verifiable domains, such as creative writing or open-ended instruction following. To address this limitation, we propose Rubric-ARM, a framework that jointly optimizes a rubric generator and a judge using reinforcement learning from preference feedback. Unlike existing methods that rely on static rubrics or disjoint training pipelines, our approach treats rubric generation as a latent action learned to maximize judgment accuracy. We introduce an alternating optimization strategy to mitigate the non-stationarity of simultaneous updates, providing theoretical analysis that demonstrates how this schedule reduces gradient variance during training. Extensive experiments show that Rubric-ARM achieves state-of-the-art performance among baselines on multiple benchmarks and significantly improves downstream policy alignment in both offline and online reinforcement learning settings.

Forecasting an unresolved event requires finding relevant evidence and deciding how strongly it supports each outcome. Yet outcome-based training of Large Language Model (LLM) forecasters often begins with preassembled evidence at a single prediction date, leaving evidence acquisition outside the learning loop. We introduce AlphaBet, an agentic reinforcement learning (RL) framework that trains a single LLM policy to search, reason, and report probabilities across multiple pre-resolution dates. Each dated forecast is scored by a proper scoring rule against the eventual outcome, allowing one resolved event to supervise decisions under different information states. We decompose forecasting regret into an evidence-acquisition gap and a probability-reporting gap, and show that Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)'s standard-deviation normalization can distort the reporting target under multi-class proper scores. On GLM-4.5-Air, AlphaBet reduces the Brier score from 0.731 to 0.626 on Forecast-Dojo and from 0.612 to 0.528 on FutureX. Controlled ablations attribute these gains to multi-date training and show that they come from improvements in both information acquisition and probability reporting. Our empirical results validate that GRPO's std normalization degrades proper-scoring-rule performance while leaving top-outcome accuracy largely unchanged.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel on standardized medical exams, high scores often fail to translate to high-quality responses for real-world medical queries. Current evaluations rely heavily on multiple-choice questions, failing to capture the unstructured, ambiguous, and long-tail complexities inherent in genuine user inquiries. To bridge this gap, we introduce QuarkMedBench, an ecologically valid benchmark tailored for real-world medical LLM assessment. We compiled a massive dataset spanning Clinical Care, Wellness Health, and Professional Inquiry, comprising 20,821 single-turn queries and 3,853 multi-turn sessions. To objectively evaluate open-ended answers, we propose an automated scoring framework that integrates multi-model consensus with evidence-based retrieval to dynamically generate 220,617 fine-grained scoring rubrics (~9.8 per query). During evaluation, hierarchical weighting and safety constraints structurally quantify medical accuracy, key-point coverage, and risk interception, effectively mitigating the high costs and subjectivity of human grading. Experimental results demonstrate that the generated rubrics achieve a 91.8% concordance rate with clinical expert blind audits, establishing highly dependable medical reliability. Crucially, baseline evaluations on this benchmark reveal significant performance disparities among state-of-the-art models when navigating real-world clinical nuances, highlighting the limitations of conventional exam-based metrics. Ultimately, QuarkMedBench establishes a rigorous, reproducible yardstick for measuring LLM performance on complex health issues, while its framework inherently supports dynamic knowledge updates to prevent benchmark obsolescence.

We seek to identify the most relevant benefits offered by Medicare Advantage Health Plans that drive membership and market share. As an example, we explore plans operating in a single county in New Jersey between 2018 and 2023. A dataset of benefits from publicly available data sources was created and the variance inflation factor was applied to identify the correlation between the extracted features, to avoid multicollinearity and overparameterization problems. We categorized the variable Market Share and used it as a multinomial response variable with three categories: less than 0.3\%, 0.3\% to 1.5\%, and over 1.5\%. Categories were chosen to achieve approximately uniform distribution of plans (47, 60, and 65 respectively). We built a multinomial Lasso model using 5-fold cross-validation to tune the penalty parameter. Lasso forced some features to be dropped from the model, which reduces the risk of overfitting and increases the interpretability of the results. For each category, important variables are different. Certain brands drive market share, as do PPO plans and prescription drug coverage. Benefits, particularly ancillary benefits that are not part of CMS's required benefits, appear to have little influence, while financial terms such as deductibles, copays, and out-of-pocket limits are associated with higher market share. Finally, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Lasso model with the test set. The accuracy is 0.76.

We present the final nine-year maps and basic results from the WMAP mission. We provide new nine-year full sky temperature maps that were processed to reduce the asymmetry of the effective beams. Temperature and polarization sky maps are examined to separate CMB anisotropy from foreground emission, and both types of signals are analyzed in detail. The WMAP mission has resulted in a highly constrained LCDM cosmological model with precise and accurate parameters in agreement with a host of other cosmological measurements. When WMAP data are combined with finer scale CMB, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble constant measurements, we find that Big Bang nucleosynthesis is well supported and there is no compelling evidence for a non-standard number of neutrino species (3.84+/-0.40). The model fit also implies that the age of the universe is 13.772+/-0.059 Gyr, and the fit Hubble constant is H0 = 69.32+/-0.80 km/s/Mpc. Inflation is also supported: the fluctuations are adiabatic, with Gaussian random phases; the detection of a deviation of the scalar spectral index from unity reported earlier by WMAP now has high statistical significance (n_s = 0.9608+/-0.0080); and the universe is close to flat/Euclidean, Omega_k = -0.0027 (+0.0039/-0.0038). Overall, the WMAP mission has resulted in a reduction of the cosmological parameter volume by a factor of 68,000 for the standard six-parameter LCDM model, based on CMB data alone. For a model including tensors, the allowed seven-parameter volume has been reduced by a factor 117,000. Other cosmological observations are in accord with the CMB predictions, and the combined data reduces the cosmological parameter volume even further. With no significant anomalies and an adequate goodness-of-fit, the inflationary flat LCDM model and its precise and accurate parameters rooted in WMAP data stands as the standard model of cosmology.

Systematic reviewers who use a model to read randomized trials need each answer and a measure of how far to trust it. If the model is calibrated, so that its stated probabilities match how often it is right, a reviewer can accept its confident answers and check the rest by hand. This paper fine-tunes Qwen3-4B-Base with low-rank adapters and a classification head for evidence inference (Lehman et al., 2019; DeYoung et al., 2020): given a trial's article and a prompt that names an intervention, a comparator and an outcome, classify the result as a significant increase, a significant decrease or no significant difference. The articles of Evidence Inference 2.0 come from the open-access subset of PubMed Central, which includes articles under non-commercial and no-derivatives licenses, so the released model was fine-tuned only on the 1,431 of 2,657 training articles under CC BY, CC0 or the public domain; it is released under the Apache License 2.0 and runs on a laptop. On the test split, its expected calibration error is 0.017 and its log loss is lower than that of Gemma 4 31B-it given the same input zero-shot, meeting criteria registered on the Open Science Framework before testing. Its macro-F1, 0.925, is above every published result on that split that I found, though those systems used other inputs, scoring rules and prompt filters, and the test labels are public. Accepting its 80 percent most confident answers leaves an error rate of 2.6 percent among them. Context ablations show that the answers depend on the article, but the title alone carries some signal, which an informative title or recall of the trial could explain.

We present a new methodology for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) images by utilizing norms of the score estimates at multiple noise scales. A score is defined to be the gradient of the log density with respect to the input data. Our methodology is completely unsupervised and follows a straight forward training scheme. First, we train a deep network to estimate scores for levels of noise. Once trained, we calculate the noisy score estimates for N in-distribution samples and take the L2-norms across the input dimensions (resulting in an NxL matrix). Then we train an auxiliary model (such as a Gaussian Mixture Model) to learn the in-distribution spatial regions in this L-dimensional space. This auxiliary model can now be used to identify points that reside outside the learned space. Despite its simplicity, our experiments show that this methodology significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art in detecting out-of-distribution images. For example, our method can effectively separate CIFAR-10 (inlier) and SVHN (OOD) images, a setting which has been previously shown to be difficult for deep likelihood models.

Relevance and fairness are two major objectives of recommender systems (RSs). Recent work proposes measures of RS fairness that are either independent from relevance (fairness-only) or conditioned on relevance (joint measures). While fairness-only measures have been studied extensively, we look into whether joint measures can be trusted. We collect all joint evaluation measures of RS relevance and fairness, and ask: How much do they agree with each other? To what extent do they agree with relevance/fairness measures? How sensitive are they to changes in rank position, or to increasingly fair and relevant recommendations? We empirically study for the first time the behaviour of these measures across 4 real-world datasets and 4 recommenders. We find that most of these measures: i) correlate weakly with one another and even contradict each other at times; ii) are less sensitive to rank position changes than relevance- and fairness-only measures, meaning that they are less granular than traditional RS measures; and iii) tend to compress scores at the low end of their range, meaning that they are not very expressive. We counter the above limitations with a set of guidelines on the appropriate usage of such measures, i.e., they should be used with caution due to their tendency to contradict each other and of having a very small empirical range.

We investigate the mechanism design problem faced by a principal who hires multiple agents to gather and report costly information. Then, the principal exploits the information to make an informed decision. We model this problem as a game, where the principal announces a mechanism consisting in action recommendations and a payment function, a.k.a. scoring rule. Then, each agent chooses an effort level and receives partial information about an underlying state of nature based on the effort. Finally, the agents report the information (possibly non-truthfully), the principal takes a decision based on this information, and the agents are paid according to the scoring rule. While previous work focuses on single-agent problems, we consider multi-agents settings. This poses the challenge of coordinating the agents' efforts and aggregating correlated information. Indeed, we show that optimal mechanisms must correlate agents' efforts, which introduces externalities among the agents, and hence complex incentive compatibility constraints and equilibrium selection problems. First, we design a polynomial-time algorithm to find an optimal incentive compatible mechanism. Then, we study an online problem, where the principal repeatedly interacts with a group of unknown agents. We design a no-regret algorithm that provides mathcal{O}(T^{2/3}) regret with respect to an optimal mechanism, matching the state-of-the-art bound for single-agent settings.

We placed 100 memory-equipped large language model (LLM) agents in charge of a closed, money-conserving spatial economy on real Pokhara Lakeside geography (earning wages, running businesses, setting prices) and ran this multi-agent simulation for up to 26 simulated weeks, well past the 1-2 weeks typical of agent-society studies. Across 91 validated runs (2.44M agent decisions, 21.5B tokens), the money stops moving, in a specific and measurable way. A 12x tourist demand shock raises business revenue 4.62x (p<0.001), which we decompose exactly into a 1.50x extensive margin (more businesses trading) and a 3.07x intensive margin (more revenue each). Monetary transmission stops there. Wages move 1.03x (p=0.42); 0.3% of 3,981 menu items are ever repriced (p=0.47). A randomized cash transfer (NPR 5,000 to 20 of 100 agents) shows the same pattern from the opposite direction: 96.7% is still held 311 pulses later, marginal propensity to consume 3-4% by two independent measures, indistinguishable from zero. The wealth distribution is consequently near-frozen at the horizon this literature uses (ρ=0.964 over 2 simulated weeks), but not frozen. ρ falls to 0.832 at 12 weeks and 0.752 at 26, a horizon-dependence no short study can see. Matched ablations show which knob actually matters. Swapping the backing LLM moves every outcome we measure (p=0.0039); deleting agents' memory moves none of them detectably. A purely social tool fails 94-97% of the time across two model families, compared with ~96% success on economic tools, with no measurable shift away from it. Every headline number is verified twice, by a live validator and by an offline recomputation that reconciles each agent's wealth against its own signed transaction history, and we release the full run corpus for reanalysis.

Confidence-based voting aggregates parallel LLM rollouts by weighting each with internal signals such as token log probabilities, and has been actively studied for single-turn reasoning. However, modern LLMs increasingly act as multi-turn search agents that retrieve and condition on external documents. In this paper, we show that confidence-based voting transfers poorly to this multi-turn setting, and identify the underlying failure reason as copy inflation: when retrieved documents are appended to an agent's context, tokens copied from those documents receive systematically inflated log probabilities. This flattens confidence scores within each question and weakens the resulting weighted vote. To address this issue, we propose Retrieval-Grounded Voting (RGV), which scores each rollout by the lexical overlap between its final answer and the documents it retrieved. By computing the signal outside the contaminated context, RGV sidesteps both token log probabilities and additional LLM calls. Across four search-agent benchmarks and five LLMs, RGV consistently outperforms confidence-based voting, with gains of up to +5.4% accuracy and +35% on minority-correct questions, where the correct answer appears in only 1-2 of 8 rollouts.

Frontier coding agents are increasingly used in workflows where users supervise progress primarily through repeated improvement of a public score, namely the reported score on a public evaluation file with labels in the workspace, rather than through direct inspection of the agent's intermediate outputs. We study whether multi-round user pressure to improve that score induces public score exploitation: behavior that raises the public score through shortcuts without improving hidden private evaluation. We begin with a preliminary single-script tabular classification task, where GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.6 both exploit label information within 10 rounds of user-agent interaction. We then build AgentPressureBench, a 34-task machine-learning repository benchmark spanning three input modalities, and collect 1326 multi-round trajectories from 13 coding agents. On our benchmark, we observe 403 exploitative runs, spanning across all tasks. We also find that stronger models have higher exploitation rates, supported by a significant Spearman rank correlation of 0.77. Our ablation experiments show that higher user pressure leads to earlier exploitation, reducing the average first exploit round by 15.6 rounds (i.e., 19.67 to 4.08). As a mitigation, adding explicit anti-exploit wordings in prompt mostly eliminates exploitation (100% to 8.3%). We hope that our work can bring attention to more careful use of coding agents workflow, and developing more robust coding agents under user pressure. Our project page is at https://ucsc-vlaa.github.io/AgentPressureBench .

Measuring the creativity of large language models (LLMs) is essential for designing methods that can improve creativity and for enhancing our scientific understanding of this ability. To accomplish this, it has become common in recent years to administer tests of human creativity to LLMs. Although these tests provide a convenient and fully automated way to score "creativity," their validity as measures of machine creativity has not been established, and these tests already have limited validity as predictors of human creativity. To address this problem, we conduct the first large-scale, systematic study assessing the effectiveness of human creativity tests for predicting the creative achievement of LLMs across three target constructs: creative writing, divergent thinking, and scientific ideation. We find that the Divergent Association Task (DAT) and the Conditional DAT are the best predictors of creative writing and divergent thinking, respectively, but that test effectiveness varies significantly by construct, and no single test predicts all constructs well. Moreover, contrary to popular belief, no existing test reliably predicts scientific ideation ability. Motivated by this problem, we introduce the Divergent Remote Association Test (DRAT), a vocabulary-space test that assesses both convergent and divergent thinking in a single instrument. The DRAT is the first and only creativity test for LLMs that is a significant predictor of scientific ideation ability, demonstrating robustness across major design choices. Furthermore, the performance gain of the DRAT is not recoverable from any linear combination of the Divergent Association Task and the Remote Associates Test, indicating that assessing divergent and convergent thinking in the same test is essential to reliably predicting scientific ideation ability.

AI-text detection generally asks whether a machine wrote a text. As AI becomes an increasingly integral and accepted part of writing, the more relevant question is no longer whether AI was used, but how much of the text reflects human contribution. A prominent line of work estimates this by measuring how predictive a person's prompt is of the final text. We show that this measure can be easily manipulated. We introduce SPECIFICITY PADDING that simply asks the model to copy a few random IDs from the prompt, and that alone makes a title-only request look more human than one that supplies the article's key ideas. A context-swap audit then holds each document fixed, and only shows or hides the IDs to the evaluator. The score of the unchanged text swings by a third to half of its scale, and it rises for every document we test, on news and scientific abstracts, across varied LLMs from 3.8B to 753B parameters. The same articles can average 85\% human or 15\% human depending only on which prompt is on record, and even with no prompt at all, the output-only variant rewards the random strings themselves. An exact identity, the credit ledger, explains why. The score is a surprisal-weighted average over the text, so rare strings that the context makes copyable collect the credit, whatever they mean. A two-point bound marks a deeper limit. If the prompt could have been machine-written, every transcript-only method must, in the worst case, miss by half the contribution at stake. Likelihood-based scores alone cannot reliably establish human contribution without evidence of what the person added and how the text was produced.

Chemistry evaluation has moved past multiple-choice probes toward open-ended expert problems, yet the benchmarks that define the current frontier still score answer endpoints alone. Such scoring conflates memorized facts with stepwise derivation, treats visual and textual inputs as interchangeable, and confounds long-horizon planning with stepwise execution. These blind spots prevent any diagnosis of where the reasoning chain breaks in a model. We present ChemArgus, a competition-level chemistry benchmark drawn from chemistry competition material, textbooks, and research papers, whose scoring replaces the answer endpoint with three measurement properties. Fine-grained scoring grades every subquestion point by point with partial credit, so a score lands at the level of the step rather than the outcome. Multimodal capability is priced on every problem containing a real image, paired with a controlled text description, so visual understanding is measured against text on identical tasks. Diagnostic attribution reads paired metrics that share one scoring unit and differ only in context construction, so a gap between two scores isolates a single cause, namely integration, propagation, or local reasoning. GPT-5.6-Sol scores 23.2% on unassisted whole-problem solving against 28.8% and 30.4% under the two sequential metrics, a gap measuring the integration burden. Through rubric partial credit and these cause-isolating score gaps, ChemArgus shows not only whether a model answers chemistry correctly but where its reasoning chain fails, so that every score it reports doubles as a diagnosis, a readout of the chain rather than a verdict, aiming to guide language models step by step on their path toward chemistry expertise, one corrected step at a time, each step priced by the rubric, point by point.

Closed-source frontier labs do not disclose parameter counts. Storing F facts requires at least F/(bits per parameter) weights, so factual recall lower-bounds parameter count--an intrinsic, serving-independent signal, though (as we show) a coarse one. We introduce Incompressible Knowledge Probes (IKPs), a benchmark of 1,400 factual questions spanning 7 tiers of obscurity, designed to isolate knowledge that cannot be derived by reasoning or compressed by architectural improvements. We score with no hallucination penalty (lambda = 0: IKP accuracy is simply the fraction of probed facts answered correctly), which removes both the penalty hyperparameter and the per-tier flooring choice; a full lambda x flooring ablation shows the calibration is robust across scoring choices while individual estimates are not, motivating the no-penalty default. We calibrate a log-linear mapping from IKP accuracy to parameter count on 93 open-weight models (135M-1,600B) spanning 19 vendors, achieving R^2 = 0.910; leave-one-out cross-validation confirms generalization (median fold error 1.48x, 72% within 2x, 86% within 3x). The instrument is deliberately coarse--its 90% prediction interval spans ~3x in either direction, wider than inference economics--so IKP recovers order-of-magnitude effective capacity and relative rankings, not precise parameter counts. For Mixture-of-Experts models, total parameters predict knowledge (R^2 = 0.67) better than active parameters (R^2 = 0.41). We evaluate 201 models from 27 vendors on a curated probe set (1,311 of 1,400 probes surviving name-collision and label-ambiguity filters) and report effective knowledge capacity for all major proprietary frontier models as prediction bands rather than point estimates; for heavily safety-tuned models these are lower bounds, since refusal policy can suppress tens of percentage points of otherwise-answerable capacity.

ARC-AGI-3 evaluates agents in interactive environments whose rules and objectives must be inferred from observation. We present Kepler, an open-source harness that represents hypotheses as executable world models and validates them through retrospective transition checks and conditional prediction checks. Under one frozen Claude Opus 5 configuration, Kepler obtained a server-verified 100.00 RHAE on all 25 public games, with no per-game model selection or score-conditioned reruns. On 181 of 183 completed levels, the final Opus attempt used no more actions than the corresponding median-human baseline. The retained board runs used 8,256 environment actions, of which 7,292 occurred in scored levels. Retained local provider-session records yield 858.0 million tokens, 97.37% cache reads, and a \$777.72 cost at September 1, 2026 API list-equivalent rates. We also report three evaluation failures: source-code leakage that produced an invalid perfect run, agents reconstructing a removed harness in a control condition, and autonomous repair masking a broken planner. A single-game observation case study showed that animation frames contained task-relevant information absent from settled text grids. Across the final Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol boards, 48 of 50 game-model cells reached 100. These results indicate that public-set score alone has limited discriminative value and motivate first-attempt, cost-conditioned, and verification-aware reporting.

Forecasting is a task that is difficult to evaluate: the ground truth can only be known in the future. Recent work showing LLM forecasters rapidly approaching human-level performance begs the question: how can we benchmark and evaluate these forecasters instantaneously? Following the consistency check framework, we measure the performance of forecasters in terms of the consistency of their predictions on different logically-related questions. We propose a new, general consistency metric based on arbitrage: for example, if a forecasting AI illogically predicts that both the Democratic and Republican parties have 60% probability of winning the 2024 US presidential election, an arbitrageur can trade against the forecaster's predictions and make a profit. We build an automated evaluation system that generates a set of base questions, instantiates consistency checks from these questions, elicits the predictions of the forecaster, and measures the consistency of the predictions. We then build a standard, proper-scoring-rule forecasting benchmark, and show that our (instantaneous) consistency metrics correlate with LLM forecasters' ground truth Brier scores (which are only known in the future). We also release a consistency benchmark that resolves in 2028, providing a long-term evaluation tool for forecasting.

Thousands of diverse benchmarks have been developed to measure the quality of large language models (LLMs). Yet prior work has demonstrated that LLM performance is often sufficiently explained by a small set of latent factors, or abilities. This suggests the potential for more efficient and principled benchmarking, but it remains difficult to compare the quality of different methods. Motivated by predictive validity, we argue that the quality of a benchmarking framework should be grounded in how efficiently it enables the prediction of model performance on unseen tasks. To analyze this objective, we collect the "Wide-scale Item Level Dataset" (WILD), a dataset of item-model response pairs, comprising evaluations of 65 models on 109,564 unique items spanning 163 tasks drawn from 27 datasets. This dataset enables the first analysis of how different techniques can predict a model's performance on a large, diverse collection of unseen tasks under different budget constraints. We demonstrate that combining a modified multidimensional item response theory (IRT) model with adaptive item selection driven by optimal experimental design can predict performance on 112 held-out benchmark tasks with a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 7%, and can do so after observing only 16 items. We further demonstrate that incorporating cost-aware discount factors into our selection criteria can reduce the total tokens needed to reach 7% MAE from 141,000 tokens to only 22,000, an 85% reduction in evaluation cost.

Point-adjustment (PA), for years the default scoring protocol in time-series anomaly detection (TSAD), was shown by Kim et al. (2022) to award near-perfect F1 to random anomaly scores. The field adopted a suite of replacement metrics (PA%K, range-based precision/recall, affiliation precision/recall, and Volume-Under-the-Surface, VUS, ROC/PR). We ask, independently and adversarially, whether these resist no-skill detectors on real benchmarks, and find the answer turns entirely on one overlooked variable: N, the number of random attempts an adversary reports the best of. Under a single honest run (N=1), not one replacement metric is gameable on any of six benchmarks (UCR, SMD, SMAP, MSL, NAB, PSM): a random detector reaches 90% of the best real detector's score on at most 11% of series for affiliation-F1, 5% for the ROC family, and 2% for the PR-based metrics and PA%K. But under best-of-N reporting, the seed-shopping endemic to ML, the metrics split sharply. affiliation-F1 and every ROC-based metric inflate steeply, affiliation crossing gameable (25% of series) by N=3 and reaching 0.98 at the full pool (N=41), the ROC family crossing by N=9-11; the PR-based metrics and PA%K stay near-flat at every N, floored near the anomaly prevalence (the lone exception is NAB at large N). A paired test finds VUS-ROC inflated on 131 series where its sibling VUS-PR is not, and never the reverse. The ROC-vs-PR split follows from the order-statistic behaviour of AUC under extreme class imbalance (a random PR-AUC is floored at prevalence); affiliation inflates by a second route, its extreme single-run leniency (already fragile at N=1). We release a pip-installable stress-test harness, and recommend reporting single-run scores or disclosing N and preferring PR-based metrics, which resist best-of-N inflation on nearly every benchmark.

Frontier model progress is often measured by academic benchmarks, which offer a limited view of performance in real-world professional contexts. Existing evaluations often fail to assess open-ended, economically consequential tasks in high-stakes domains like Legal and Finance, where practical returns are paramount. To address this, we introduce Professional Reasoning Bench (PRBench), a realistic, open-ended, and difficult benchmark of real-world problems in Finance and Law. We open-source its 1,100 expert-authored tasks and 19,356 expert-curated criteria, making it, to our knowledge, the largest public, rubric-based benchmark for both legal and finance domains. We recruit 182 qualified professionals, holding JDs, CFAs, or 6+ years of experience, who contributed tasks inspired by their actual workflows. This process yields significant diversity, with tasks spanning 114 countries and 47 US jurisdictions. Our expert-curated rubrics are validated through a rigorous quality pipeline, including independent expert validation. Subsequent evaluation of 20 leading models reveals substantial room for improvement, with top scores of only 0.39 (Finance) and 0.37 (Legal) on our Hard subsets. We further catalog associated economic impacts of the prompts and analyze performance using human-annotated rubric categories. Our analysis shows that models with similar overall scores can diverge significantly on specific capabilities. Common failure modes include inaccurate judgments, a lack of process transparency and incomplete reasoning, highlighting critical gaps in their reliability for professional adoption.

We introduce APEX-Accounting, a benchmark built by Mercor in partnership with Ramp, to assess whether frontier models can do the real work of accountants. Tasks include reconciling accounts, accruing expenses, posting transactions, and producing reports. The private eval set comprises 160 tasks, split across 10 worlds. Each world contains an accounting system, as well as spreadsheets, PDFs, and other files. Every task was authored and solved by experts in accounting and bookkeeping, who also wrote grading rubrics. Across nine frontier models, Claude-Fable-5 (Max) leads with 56.4% Mean Criteria@3, ahead of Muse-Spark-1.1 (xHigh) at 52.6%. No model scores more than 2.6% Pass^8 (GPT-5.6-Sol (Max+Pro)) and the highest Pass@8 is 21.5% (Muse-Spark-1.1 (xHigh)). We experiment with increasing the token budget from 1 to 50 and observe an instance of Simpson's paradox: scores increase as the token budget increases but within a given budget-constrained harness, scores are lower on tasks where the model spends more tokens. As APEX-Accounting is a closed benchmark, leaderboard evals can be run for any frontier model on request.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved expert-level performance on standardized examinations, yet multiple-choice accuracy poorly reflects real-world clinical utility and safety. As patients and clinicians increasingly use LLMs for guidance on complex conditions such as pancreatic cancer, evaluation must extend beyond general medical knowledge. Existing frameworks, such as HealthBench, rely on simulated queries and lack disease-specific depth. Moreover, high rubric-based scores do not ensure factual correctness, underscoring the need to assess hallucinations. We developed a human-in-the-loop pipeline to create expert rubrics for de-identified patient questions from the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (PanCAN). The resulting benchmark, PanCanBench, includes 3,130 question-specific criteria across 282 authentic patient questions. We evaluated 22 proprietary and open-source LLMs using an LLM-as-a-judge framework, measuring clinical completeness, factual accuracy, and web-search integration. Models showed substantial variation in rubric-based completeness, with scores ranging from 46.5% to 82.3%. Factual errors were common, with hallucination rates (the percentages of responses containing at least one factual error) ranging from 6.0% for Gemini-2.5 Pro and GPT-4o to 53.8% for Llama-3.1-8B. Importantly, newer reasoning-optimized models did not consistently improve factuality: although o3 achieved the highest rubric score, it produced inaccuracies more frequently than other GPT-family models. Web-search integration did not inherently guarantee better responses. The average score changed from 66.8% to 63.9% for Gemini-2.5 Pro and from 73.8% to 72.8% for GPT-5 when web search was enabled. Synthetic AI-generated rubrics inflated absolute scores by 17.9 points on average while generally maintaining similar relative ranking.

As part of a PhD thesis entitled `Scalar perturbations in warm inflation and during reheating' we present a software for computing warm inflation observables. In particular, our Mathematica implementation computes the power spectrum, spectral tilt, and tensor-to-scalar ratio for a given momentum scale. Compared with other implementations, we start in a Bunch-Davies state deep inside the horizon, ideally at a time when thermal noise is exponentially suppressed. We integrate gauge-invariant equations for three curvature perturbations across horizon exit. We continue deep enough outside of horizon so that all curvature perturbations agree. Results are illustrated for Standard Model embedded warm inflation, and we also provide notebooks for several other popular potentials and friction coefficients. The theoretical foundations for the code can be found in the main part of the thesis or in earlier papers [1,2]. Specifically, part II derives gauge-invariant, model-agnostic evolution equations, as well as the noise autocorrelator interpolating between quantum and classical domains. Part III presents the general ideas behind the numerical implementation, while part IV presents selected results. The code is described, line-by-line, in Appendix A. The published PhD thesis is available at https://doi.org/10.48620/101166 while the notebooks can be downloaded from https://github.com/alicarogeljblackhole/Warm-Inflation.

Recently, rubrics have been used to guide LLM judges in capturing subjective, nuanced, multi-dimensional human preferences, and have been extended from evaluation to reward signals for reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT). However, rubric generation remains hard to control: rubrics often lack coverage, conflate dimensions, misalign preference direction, and contain redundant or highly correlated criteria, degrading judge accuracy and producing suboptimal rewards during RFT. We propose RRD, a principled framework for rubric refinement built on a recursive decompose-filter cycle. RRD decomposes coarse rubrics into fine-grained, discriminative criteria, expanding coverage while sharpening separation between responses. A complementary filtering mechanism removes misaligned and redundant rubrics, and a correlation-aware weighting scheme prevents over-representing highly correlated criteria, yielding rubric sets that are informative, comprehensive, and non-redundant. Empirically, RRD delivers large, consistent gains across both evaluation and training: it improves preference-judgment accuracy on JudgeBench and PPE for both GPT-4o and Llama3.1-405B judges, achieving top performance in all settings with up to +17.7 points on JudgeBench. When used as the reward source for RFT on WildChat, it yields substantially stronger and more stable learning signals, boosting reward by up to 160% (Qwen3-4B) and 60% (Llama3.1-8B) versus 10-20% for prior rubric baselines, with gains that transfer to HealthBench-Hard and BiGGen Bench. Overall, RRD establishes recursive rubric refinement as a scalable and interpretable foundation for LLM judging and reward modeling in open-ended domains.

Despite their groundbreaking performance for many generative modeling tasks, diffusion models have fallen short on discrete data domains such as natural language. Crucially, standard diffusion models rely on the well-established theory of score matching, but efforts to generalize this to discrete structures have not yielded the same empirical gains. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing score entropy, a novel loss that naturally extends score matching to discrete spaces, integrates seamlessly to build discrete diffusion models, and significantly boosts performance. Experimentally, we test our Score Entropy Discrete Diffusion models (SEDD) on standard language modeling tasks. For comparable model sizes, SEDD beats existing language diffusion paradigms (reducing perplexity by 25-75\%) and is competitive with autoregressive models, in particular outperforming GPT-2. Furthermore, compared to autoregressive mdoels, SEDD generates faithful text without requiring distribution annealing techniques like temperature scaling (around 6-8times better generative perplexity than un-annealed GPT-2), can trade compute and quality (similar quality with 32times fewer network evaluations), and enables controllable infilling (matching nucleus sampling quality while enabling other strategies besides left to right prompting).

Reinforcement learning against rubrics, lists of criteria graded by an LLM judge, has become a standard way to post-train language models on tasks with no deterministic answer. The rubric, however, is a fixed proxy for quality, never a complete description of it, and a policy trained against it long enough will learn to exploit the difference. We measure this directly. Training Qwen3-8B with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) on medical and science rubrics and grading out-of-distribution (OOD) benchmarks with both the training judge and a stronger gold judge, we find that the two scores diverge during training. The training judge's score keeps climbing while the gold judge's score peaks and then falls, by 3 points on HealthBench-Hard and by 22 points on ResearchQA. A judge with a fixed bias would shift the gold curve by a constant, not send it down while the training score rises, so the divergence is reward hacking, not judge noise. We propose Rubric Dropout, a one-line fix borrowed from neuron dropout. At every step, we randomly drop a subset of the rubric's criteria before computing the reward, so the policy never optimizes the same rubric twice. The dropped subset is shared across each rollout group, so GRPO's group-relative advantages stay comparable, and evaluation always uses the full rubric. Comparing no dropout against dropout at 30% and 50% on both benchmark pairs, dropout raises the OOD gold score at every matched checkpoint (+1 to +2 points on HealthBench-Hard, +6 to +7 points on ResearchQA), lowers the two hacking measures we track, and costs nothing in domain. Sweeping the dropout fraction shows a broad 30-50% sweet spot, while the natural alternative, reweighting criteria by how useful they are to training, performs worse than no intervention at all in our setting.

A large share of day-to-day work in professional domains happens inside PDF files: benefits packets, leases, datasheets, clinical guidelines, construction plans. Benchmarks for document AI have generally measured the required capabilities in isolation: OCR, layout analysis, chart reasoning, table QA, document VQA. A high score on any one of them does not necessarily reveal whether a model can answer a realistic question that someone in the field would actually ask about a specific PDF. GDP_pdf is a benchmark built to measure this directly. It consists of question-document pairs authored by working professionals in ten fields, and a candidate question was kept only when at least two frontier multimodal models failed it in a way that mattered: a wrong answer, missed decisive evidence, or a fabricated claim, rather than a superficial difference such as style. Each item comes with a rubric of atomic criteria, so we can report a graded rubric score as well as a strict task-level pass rate, and each item is tagged against a taxonomy of eleven capabilities in three tiers, spanning text extraction and grounding, table and chart comprehension, cross-referencing, spatial reasoning, and abstention on unsupported queries. We report results for seventeen frontier models on the 100-item benchmark: the best model passes only 30.7% of the items and the worst passes 2%. Most errors trace back to a small set of recurring loss patterns: misaligned tables, misread charts, skipped footnotes and exclusions, miscounted floor-plan symbols, scan noise, and amendments that supersede earlier text.

By learning the gradient of smoothed data distributions, diffusion models can iteratively generate samples from complex distributions. The learned score function enables their generalization capabilities, but how the learned score relates to the score of the underlying data manifold remains largely unclear. Here, we aim to elucidate this relationship by comparing learned neural scores to the scores of two kinds of analytically tractable distributions: Gaussians and Gaussian mixtures. The simplicity of the Gaussian model makes it theoretically attractive, and we show that it admits a closed-form solution and predicts many qualitative aspects of sample generation dynamics. We claim that the learned neural score is dominated by its linear (Gaussian) approximation for moderate to high noise scales, and supply both theoretical and empirical arguments to support this claim. Moreover, the Gaussian approximation empirically works for a larger range of noise scales than naive theory suggests it should, and is preferentially learned early in training. At smaller noise scales, we observe that learned scores are better described by a coarse-grained (Gaussian mixture) approximation of training data than by the score of the training distribution, a finding consistent with generalization. Our findings enable us to precisely predict the initial phase of trained models' sampling trajectories through their Gaussian approximations. We show that this allows the skipping of the first 15-30% of sampling steps while maintaining high sample quality (with a near state-of-the-art FID score of 1.93 on CIFAR-10 unconditional generation). This forms the foundation of a novel hybrid sampling method, termed analytical teleportation, which can seamlessly integrate with and accelerate existing samplers, including DPM-Solver-v3 and UniPC. Our findings suggest ways to improve the design and training of diffusion models.

Reward models are a bottleneck for reinforcement learning in embodied AI. Long-horizon robotic manipulation requires scalable vision feedback beyond handcrafted rewards or task-specific annotations. Existing open-source VLM reward judges like RoboReward adopt simple 1--5 trajectory progress scoring, lacking pairwise preferences for RLHF, DPO and Bradley-Terry frameworks, while failing to optimize video scene understanding. Augmenting RoboReward with pairwise comparison and video-QA supervision causes inconsistency between pairwise preferences and pointwise scores, introducing training noise and hurting downstream performance---an issue aggregation methods such as TrustJudge cannot resolve. To address this, we propose TrustRoboReward, a multi-paradigm reward modeling framework equipped with Preference-Ordered Isotonic Score Editing (POISE). We construct a unified four-paradigm dataset with trajectory progress scoring (Score-A), video-QA answer quality scoring (Score-B), and their pairwise counterparts (Pair-A, Pair-B). Pairwise labels align better with human judgment than pointwise scores, inspiring us to calibrate pointwise scores to avoid score-pair reversals against pairwise preferences. POISE rectifies pointwise scores and eliminates cross-paradigm reversal conflicts unresolved by TrustJudge. Theoretically, POISE reduces score-pair reversal conflicts from 20.15% to 0%, whereas TrustJudge retains 20.46% conflicts on the same corpus. Evaluated on our benchmark, Qwen3-VL-4B trained with POISE achieves an overall reward score of 77.96%, nearly matching GPT-5-mini (78.09%, gap 0.13%) and outperforming the strongest RoboReward-4B baseline by 10.13%. It also lifts test-time score-pair consistency to 71.90%, exceeding RoboReward-4B (57.26%) and GPT-5-mini (68.09%). Integrating TrustJudge aggregation during inference boosts the overall score to 78.57%, surpassing the GPT-5-mini teacher model.

Rubric-based reward models (RMs) evaluate responses against explicit criteria. However, existing methods often derive criteria from observed response candidates, introducing response-induced bias that may limit rubric generalizability. Their judges also struggle with mechanical constraints when relying on reading alone, and commonly used pairwise judges provide only relative preferences, complicating their direct use for policy optimization. We propose ReVeR, a pointwise rubric RM that derives hard rules and graded principles by reasoning about the instruction alone and evaluates responses independently through tool-augmented judging. Both components are trained through label-blind distillation, in which preference labels only filter a teacher's outputs, yielding ReVeR-Traces, a large-scale dataset of rubric-reasoning and judging trajectories. Experiments demonstrate that ReVeR outperforms pairwise rubric RMs in average preference accuracy, most clearly on instruction following, as well as in test-time scaling and downstream policy optimization. We further find that generator RL improves preference accuracy while reducing rubric fidelity, and that higher preference accuracy does not necessarily translate into better downstream policies. These findings highlight that rubric fidelity, preference accuracy, and downstream utility are distinct properties, shedding light on future RM research.

Peer-evaluation based measures of group research quality such as the UK's Research Assessment Exercise (RAE), which do not employ bibliometric analyses, cannot directly avail of such methods to normalize research impact across disciplines. This is seen as a conspicuous flaw of such exercises and calls have been made to find a remedy. Here a simple, systematic solution is proposed based upon a mathematical model for the relationship between research quality and group quantity. This model manifests both the Matthew effect and a phenomenon akin to the Ringelmann effect and reveals the existence of two critical masses for each academic discipline: a lower value, below which groups are vulnerable, and an upper value beyond which the dependency of quality on quantity reduces and plateaus appear when the critical masses are large. A possible normalization procedure is then to pitch these plateaus at similar levels. We examine the consequences of this procedure at RAE for a multitude of academic disciplines, corresponding to a range of critical masses.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

Large language models (LLMs) are currently applied to scientific paper evaluation by assigning an absolute score to each paper independently. However, since score scales vary across conferences, time periods, and evaluation criteria, models trained on absolute scores are prone to fitting narrow, context-specific rules rather than developing robust scholarly judgment. To overcome this limitation, we propose shifting paper evaluation from isolated scoring to collaborative ranking. In particular, we design Comparison-Native framework for Paper Evaluation (CNPE), integrating comparison into both data construction and model learning. We first propose a graph-based similarity ranking algorithm to facilitate the sampling of more informative and discriminative paper pairs from a collection. We then enhance relative quality judgment through supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning with comparison-based rewards. At inference, the model performs pairwise comparisons over sampled paper pairs and aggregates these preference signals into a global relative quality ranking. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework achieves an average relative improvement of 21.8\% over the strong baseline DeepReview-14B, while exhibiting robust generalization to five previously unseen datasets. https://github.com/ECNU-Text-Computing/ComparisonReview{Code}.

On-policy distillation (OPD) has emerged as a promising post-training technique for enhancing LLM reasoning. Under the reverse KL objective, the idealized optimum of OPD aligns the student distribution with that of the teacher. When the teacher consistently outperforms the student, this naturally suggests that OPD should yield broad improvements over the pre-OPD student. However, do such improvements extend across the entire range of test-time sampling budgets? In this work, we revisit this expectation through the lens of test-time scaling by varying the sampling budget K and evaluating performance with pass@K. Across multiple settings, we observe two distinct patterns: OPD can improve pass@K at both small and large sampling budgets, but it can also improve small-budget performance while reducing large-budget pass@K. We show one condition that guarantees such a reversal and an idealized reverse KL counterexample where it occurs even when the teacher has higher accuracy on every problem. To choose between two candidate teachers at a target sampling budget, we propose the Teacher Advantage Score at K (TAS@K), which can be computed before OPD training to predict which teacher will lead to a larger improvement in pass@K. Across three domains and thirteen benchmarks, the ordering predicted by TAS@K agrees with the observed pass@K improvements of the resulting OPD models in 83.6\% of experiments, providing a useful signal for teacher selection at the target pass@K.

We introduce the first version of KWBench (Knowledge Work Bench), a benchmark for unprompted problem recognition in large language models: can an LLM identify a professional scenario before attempting to solve it. Existing frontier benchmarks have saturated, and most knowledge-work evaluations to date reduce to extraction or task completion against a specification. KWBench targets the step before that: recognizing the governing structure of the situation from raw inputs alone. The benchmark contains 223 tasks sourced from practitioners across acquisitions, contract negotiations, clinical pharmacy, organizational politics, fraud analysis, and incentive design. Each task encodes a formal game-theoretic pattern (principal-agent conflict, signaling, mechanism design failure, strategic omission, coalitional dynamics, strategic interdependence) and carries structured ground truth recording the expert reading of the situation and the anticipated failure modes. Models receive raw data and a task prompt with no indication of problem type. Scoring is a three-tier rubric gated by a mandatory conjunctive check. Mandatory criteria encode the predicted wrong paths. We evaluate 16 models. The best model passes on 27.9% of tasks. The top two models agree on only 31.7% of their passes. Among the top 8, 44 tasks are solved by exactly one model; routing across the top 8 covers 50.7% of the benchmark, nearly double the best single model. Conditional on passing, quality scores converge (approx 83% across models); unconditional scores do not. Same models articulate the relevant game-theoretic concept correctly when asked, then fail to apply it unprompted. We release KWBench to shift how frontier models are evaluated on knowledge work, scoring them on whether they recognize the right problem from the situation alone, not only on how well they execute once the problem has been framed for them.

In the era of large language models, creative writing quality lacks a computable theoretical anchor. The dominant approaches are rubric scoring -- decomposing holistic aesthetic judgment into sub-scores -- and RLHF preference signals -- replacing quality with group votes. Both bypass the statistical structure of the text itself. This paper provides an information-theoretic foundation to fill this gap. We propose 'calibrated surprise' as the information-theoretic essence of excellent creative writing. This judgment matches reading intuition and covers its opposite. This literary judgment admits a precise mathematical formulation. Under full-dimensional constraints Y, feasible writing choices are forced into an extremely narrow space. The rare survivors are, from the unconstrained perspective, exactly the least predictable choices. Both are measured precisely by Shannon mutual information I(X;Y) = H(X) - H(X|Y) -- 'calibrated' corresponds to H(X|Y) approaching 0; 'surprising' corresponds to H(X) going high. The subtraction structure of the formula naturally separates 'well-grounded surprise' from 'pure noise'. We use token-level logprobs from Qwen1.5-7B as an operational proxy for the ideal reader's probability distribution. Across 20 pairs (12 Chinese / 8 English) of high-quality vs. systematically degraded literary passages, 20/20 pairs support the core prediction: high-quality passages have systematically higher I(X;Y) than their degraded versions.

Multi-agent document assessment for retrieval-augmented generation is computationally expensive, driving practitioners toward smaller, deployable models whose assessment mechanisms remain poorly understood. We conduct a controlled study of training-free interventions on 7B-9B instruction-tuned models across diverse QA benchmarks, revealing a sharp dichotomy in how models benefit from assessment. For weaker baselines, the dominant mechanism is per-document isolation. Astoundingly, assessment-free isolation matches full multi-agent assessment, demonstrating that resolving multi-document context confusion, rather than scoring quality, drives outsized gains of up to 50 percentage points. Conversely, for strong baselines where scoring quality matters, we introduce Reasoning-Score Coupling, a label-free perturbation probe that classifies scoring behavior. Integrating these findings, we propose MADARA, a model-adaptive routing architecture. Crucially, MADARA's diagnostic thresholds derived from a single pilot model generalize zero-shot to four unseen model families, providing a robust, lightweight pipeline to eliminate computational overhead.

When audio, video, and text disagree, accuracy alone does not show whether to acquire another source or abstain. We study these choices in a controlled three-score benchmark: a policy observes two signed scores, may request the third at a cost, and can abstain. The primary reward is mechanism-specific: abstention is correct only for one designated ambiguity mechanism and is penalized under mixed corruption. Matched controls show that a threshold policy matches always-request decisions with fewer requests; its advantage over always-answer fusion depends on the reward assigned to that ambiguity. On a partially held-out synthetic split, the threshold policy reaches 0.789 +/- 0.006 targeted decision accuracy and 0.481 +/- 0.014 utility across 83 seeds. A three-score majority reference reaches 0.626 +/- 0.008 and 0.252 +/- 0.016, but uses more information. In a matched-budget test, a train-only value selector improves utility over no-query and matched-random policies at 10% and 25% budgets, while pair uncertainty has higher utility at every budget. At 50% and 63.7% budgets, the selector lowers utility despite slightly higher non-ambiguous accuracy. If all abstentions are scored incorrect, majority outranks the threshold policy in utility. At a central temporal setting, full-trace controls match the neural models while position perturbations separate them. On held-out-actor emotion clips, eight-frame fusion has opposite-signed accuracy differences for two encoder pairs, with both actor intervals containing zero; matched-request routing gains are small and uncertain. These results separate full-modality accuracy from pre-request selection value and show that selection value depends on budget and the observed-pair ranking.

Agent benchmarks typically report only final outcomes: pass or fail. This threatens evaluation credibility in three ways. First, scores may be inflated or deflated by shortcuts and benchmark artifacts, misrepresenting capability. Second, benchmark performance may fail to predict real-world utility due to scaffold limitations and recurring failure modes. Finally, capability scores may conceal dangerous or catastrophic actions taken by the agent. We argue that log analysis -- the systematic tracking and analysis of the inputs, execution, and outputs of an AI agent -- is necessary to overcome these validity threats and promote credible agent evaluation. In this paper, we (1) present a taxonomy of threats to credible evaluation documented through log analysis, and (2) develop a set of guiding principles for log analysis. We illustrate these principles on tau-Bench Airline, revealing that pass^5 performance was under-elicited by nearly 50% and surfacing deployment failure modes invisible to outcome metrics. We conclude with pragmatic recommendations to increase uptake of log analysis, directed at diverse stakeholders including benchmark creators, model developers, independent evaluators, and deployers.

Despite their widespread use, the role of reward models in shaping reinforcement learning is poorly understood. Reward models offer a tempting promise: they automatically estimate response quality in the absence of verifiers or human judges. Unlike "verifiable rewards" which typically produce binary scores, reward models typically produce continuous scores, allowing them to be sensitive to fine-grained differences in responses. However, we show this apparent strength is a serious weakness: many popular reward models are oversensitive, assigning different scores to equally good responses. Theoretically, we show that seemingly perfect reward models can be highly oversensitive; empirically, this oversensitivity can lead to bad policies. In place of existing notions of "reward model accuracy," we propose evaluating reward models using distinct measures of "discriminative ability" and "specificity" (the complement of oversensitivity). As a solution, we describe a training-free algorithm that uses Monte Carlo dropout on any neural reward model to produce discrete reward clusters. Theoretically, we prove there exist discretizations that reduce oversensitivity at minimal expense of discriminative ability; empirically we show, in both controlled and natural RL settings, that discretizing rewards leads to less reward hacking and better policies than training on the original rewards.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is vital for optimizing video generation models, with a robust reward model (RM) serving as the cornerstone. However, existing video reward models often produce unstable scalar scores because they directly map complex, subjective video quality into a single score without explicit evaluation criteria. This leads to scalar drift, where the scoring scale collapses or shifts across different prompts, making the reward unreliable for RL. Drawing inspiration from professional human annotation engineering, we address this problem with RewardVerse, a rubric-based video reward framework that introduces a dynamic rubric as an intermediate representation between the evaluation query and the scorer. Instead of unconstrained direct scoring, RewardVerse first generates explicit evaluation criteria and then performs rubric-guided scoring, providing a stable semantic anchor that mitigates scalar drift. To efficiently optimize this collaborative pipeline, we propose Rubric-Guided Policy Optimization (RGPO), a two-stage training algorithm. RGPO first warms up the scorer using self-evolving seed rubrics and then jointly optimizes the rubric generator to produce query-adaptive evaluation criteria while continuously aligning the scorer with human ratings. Extensive experiments on the 16-dimensional EvalVerse benchmark and external datasets demonstrate that RewardVerse mitigates scalar drift, achieves state-of-the-art performance on both pointwise and pairwise evaluation, and provides a robust and interpretable reward signal for RL in video generation.

A benchmark score compares a system output against a reference, and methodological attention falls almost entirely on the first term. We measure the second. The retained annotation record of a six-language benchmark for personally identifiable information contains two independent annotator labellings, the aggregate shipped as gold, and a reviewer gold from independent expert re-annotation of a sample. Using it, we hold the scored output fixed and exchange the reference. The score moves by 4.95 F1 points for one output and 2.00 for the other (95% CIs [3.23, 6.27] and [0.26, 3.37]), and by 7.55 in the worst language. The comparison between two outputs moves as well: the paired interaction between reference and system is +2.95 points (CI [+1.97, +3.87]), survives correction for multiple testing, and changes one language's margin outright. The cause is an undocumented aggregation default that usually kept one annotator when adjudication did not fire, making the shipped reference a partial copy of an output being scored. We report the resulting reference-sensitivity band, show how to compute one from any retained annotation record, and argue that the quantity belongs beside the score.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can in principle train calibrated probabilistic forecasters, since a proper scoring rule such as the Brier score is computed from outcomes alone and is minimized in expectation by the true probability. In practice it degrades calibration, and existing remedies address epistemic uncertainty, where a model's confidence accompanies a verifiably correct or incorrect answer. We study aleatoric forecasting, where the forecast itself is the output and the label is one stochastic outcome, taking NFL in-game win probability as a testbed with the betting market as a reference. Rewarding the realized per-play outcome fails, because the single outcome is a noisy target and the policy gradient corrupts the chain of thought. We introduce a verifiable, label-free reward, a state-conditioned empirical win rate estimated from past outcomes, that removes the label noise, and we keep the gradient off the reasoning, by direct prediction or a gradient mask, so it cannot be corrupted. Trained with this reward alone, without human labels or supervised fine-tuning, a 7B model reaches the calibration of the betting market by direct prediction and is better calibrated than a zero-shot frontier model. That frontier model and a tabular estimator reach the same Brier score as this model, identifying the market's small remaining edge as live in-game information beyond their shared inputs. Masking the gradient, rather than dropping the chain of thought, preserves reasoning from which the forecast follows, which ordinary chain-of-thought training corrupts.

Estimating the performance difficulty of a musical score is crucial in music education for adequately designing the learning curriculum of the students. Although the Music Information Retrieval community has recently shown interest in this task, existing approaches mainly use machine-readable scores, leaving the broader case of sheet music images unaddressed. Based on previous works involving sheet music images, we use a mid-level representation, bootleg score, describing notehead positions relative to staff lines coupled with a transformer model. This architecture is adapted to our task by introducing an encoding scheme that reduces the encoded sequence length to one-eighth of the original size. In terms of evaluation, we consider five datasets -- more than 7500 scores with up to 9 difficulty levels -- , two of them particularly compiled for this work. The results obtained when pretraining the scheme on the IMSLP corpus and fine-tuning it on the considered datasets prove the proposal's validity, achieving the best-performing model with a balanced accuracy of 40.34\% and a mean square error of 1.33. Finally, we provide access to our code, data, and models for transparency and reproducibility.

Moving ML-mediated decision making onto privacy-preserving clients decentralises the economic decision along with the inference. Shared budget constraints then depend on information that cannot be globally current, creating an information-structure failure that conventional pacing is not designed to solve. We study this information misalignment in an auction-logic-faithful on-device simulation with 36 campaigns and 50 devices. Accounting is in dimensionless integer score units; no currency semantics are claimed. Across 30 paired demand paths, proportional Even pacing overspends 17.77% after one tick of staleness and 1,669.31% after 50 ticks under the original 20-times budget pressure. The effect does not depend on that severe a budget: at two-times pressure, 50-tick overspend remains 106.95%. A visible-budget no-sale guard makes zero-lag compliance exact at this score-unit granularity, yet leaves 11.88% overspend at one tick because other devices' debits remain invisible. A declared bursty, heterogeneous-device sweep retains a strictly increasing mean lag curve. We derive a finite-window expected excess-debit bound under conditional charge caps and find positive paired slack in every bounded-value cell. A second, incentive misalignment arises when the ML/pacing score transformation is allowed to change payment units: 98.23% of rival auctions at one tick admit a profitable deviation. An executable implementation-level counterexample isolates the runner-up's multiplier in the winner's price. Critical-base-bid payment is per-auction DSIC conditional on current multipliers, but does not establish dynamic truthfulness and does not repair base-value ranking disagreement.

Recent advances in generative video models are increasingly driven by post-training and test-time scaling, both of which critically depend on the quality of video reward models (RMs). An ideal reward model should predict accurate rewards that align with human preferences across diverse scenarios. However, existing paradigms face a fundamental dilemma: Discriminative RMs regress rewards directly on features extracted by multimodal large language models (MLLMs) without explicit reasoning, making them prone to shortcut learning and heavily reliant on massive data scaling for generalization. In contrast, Generative RMs with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning exhibit superior interpretability and generalization potential, as they leverage fine-grained semantic supervision to internalize the rationales behind human preferences. However, they suffer from inherent optimization bottlenecks due to the coupling of reasoning and scoring within a single autoregressive inference chain. To harness the generalization benefits of CoT reasoning while mitigating the training instability of coupled reasoning and scoring, we introduce DeScore, a training-efficient and generalizable video reward model. DeScore employs a decoupled ``think-then-score'' paradigm: an MLLM first generates an explicit CoT, followed by a dedicated discriminative scoring module consisting of a learnable query token and a regression head that predicts the final reward. DeScore is optimized via a two-stage framework: (1) a discriminative cold start incorporating a random mask mechanism to ensure robust scoring capabilities, and (2) a dual-objective reinforcement learning stage that independently refines CoT reasoning quality and calibrates the final reward, ensuring that higher-quality reasoning directly translates to superior model performance.

Live pitch displays, score followers and accompaniment systems must know which pitches are sounding within tens of milliseconds, but instrument-agnostic multi-pitch estimation (MPE) has mainly been designed and evaluated offline. We present JIT-MPE, a causal MPE model of 86k parameters for mixed ensembles. It gives an immediate estimate of each 20 ms frame and re-estimates the same frame as 20, 40, 80 and 160 ms of further audio arrive, so that a live display can show pitches at once and then refine them. We score each output only at a deadline by which it can be computed from the audio that has arrived, on five development sets and four held-out sets evaluated only after all design choices were frozen. At a 50 ms deadline, which reads the update made with 40 ms of lookahead, JIT-MPE is significantly more accurate than five of six published offline MPE systems in 38 of 45 comparisons (15 of 20 on the held-out sets) and less accurate in only two, although these systems read the whole recording and all but one have 6 to 170 times as many parameters; the sixth, supervised on URMP, is higher on four of the nine sets. The deadline costs little: on the held-out sets, JIT-MPE at 50 ms is within -1.27 to +0.60 points of recording-level macro F1 of its own final output with 160 ms of lookahead and within -2.08 to +0.79 points of a bidirectional model of similar size. Waiting pays off where the immediate estimate is weakest: the update at 50 ms adds 1.7-3.6 points over it on the development data and three of the four held-out sets, and raises the recall of reference frames in the first 20 ms after a note onset from 9.8% to 38.4% on the held-out AAM set. The slowest measured frame takes at most 4.15 ms on one CPU thread. Code and trained weights are available at https://github.com/Frieve-A/jit-mpe.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

We introduce TuneJury, an open, instance-level pairwise reward model for text-to-music that predicts a music preference score from a text prompt and an audio clip. The released checkpoint is trained on publicly available human-preference labels covering arena-style (A vs. B) votes, metric-alignment preference pairs, crowdsourced pairwise comparisons, and expert aesthetic ratings. The predicted score margin between two clips is well calibrated on our held-out test split, supporting data filtering via a simple score threshold. TuneJury generalizes to both held-out test pairs and out-of-distribution benchmarks, remaining competitive with prior baselines on the latter. For generators released after training, we introduce anchor calibration, a post-hoc, per-system Bradley-Terry calibration that recovers agreement at substantially better data efficiency than from-scratch retraining. The same frozen reward drives consistent reward-axis gains across three downstream applications: inference-time best-of-N selection, DITTO-style latent optimization, and expert-iteration post-training. TuneJury is available at https://github.com/yonghyunk1m/TuneJury.

Post-hoc out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has garnered intensive attention in reliable machine learning. Many efforts have been dedicated to deriving score functions based on logits, distances, or rigorous data distribution assumptions to identify low-scoring OOD samples. Nevertheless, these estimate scores may fail to accurately reflect the true data density or impose impractical constraints. To provide a unified perspective on density-based score design, we propose a novel theoretical framework grounded in Bregman divergence, which extends distribution considerations to encompass an exponential family of distributions. Leveraging the conjugation constraint revealed in our theorem, we introduce a ConjNorm method, reframing density function design as a search for the optimal norm coefficient p against the given dataset. In light of the computational challenges of normalization, we devise an unbiased and analytically tractable estimator of the partition function using the Monte Carlo-based importance sampling technique. Extensive experiments across OOD detection benchmarks empirically demonstrate that our proposed ConjNorm has established a new state-of-the-art in a variety of OOD detection setups, outperforming the current best method by up to 13.25% and 28.19% (FPR95) on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1K, respectively.

A prominent approach to test-time scaling for text-to-image diffusion models formulates the problem as a search over multiple noise seeds, selecting the one that maximizes a certain image-reward function. The effectiveness of this strategy heavily depends on the number and diversity of noise seeds explored. However, verifying each candidate is computationally expensive, because each must be fully denoised before a reward can be computed. This severely limits the number of samples that can be explored under a fixed budget. We propose test-time scaling with noise-aware pruning (TTSnap), a framework that prunes low-quality candidates without fully denoising them. The key challenge is that reward models are learned in the clean image domain, and the ranking of rewards predicted for intermediate estimates are often inconsistent with those predicted for clean images. To overcome this, we train noise-aware reward models via self-distillation to align the reward for intermediate estimates with that of the final clean images. To stabilize learning across different noise levels, we adopt a curriculum training strategy that progressively shifts the data domain from clean images to noise images. In addition, we introduce a new metric that measures reward alignment and computational budget utilization. Experiments demonstrate that our approach improves performance by over 16\% compared with existing methods, enabling more efficient and effective test-time scaling. It also provides orthogonal gains when combined with post-training techniques and local test-time optimization. Code: https://github.com/TerrysLearning/TTSnap/.

Strictly proper scoring rules identify the true conditional class distribution at population level, but their curvature can alter optimization and finite-sample behavior. We study three multiclass objectives: a class-aware quadratic Bregman score (CAPM), a strongly convex generator with constrained log-cosh ridges (HPG), and an HPG objective with an annealed probability-margin penalty (APMS). CAPM is treated as a structured instance of established quadratic scoring-rule theory. We derive conditional-regret, curvature, range, and logit-gradient bounds for CAPM and HPG, and prove exact penalty-range and conditional-target displacement bounds for APMS. Controlled five-seed experiments use Digits, Wisconsin breast cancer, and synthetic confusion and long-tail problems under clean labels, symmetric and pair-flip corruption, class imbalance, calibration evaluation, input corruption, and first-order adversarial perturbations. The candidates are close to cross-entropy on clean data and show descriptive gains in some noisy-label cells, but the five-seed comparisons are interpreted descriptively rather than as significance evidence. The selected noisy-label baselines perform better on Digits with 40% symmetric label noise, and explicit prior-adjustment methods perform better in the 30:1 synthetic long-tail experiment. Ablations do not show a consistent benefit from the candidate-specific graph, ridge, or margin components. The mathematical analysis establishes the stated properties, and the experiments delimit the empirical evidence; together they do not support a claim of general superiority.

Curriculum Learning is the presentation of samples to the machine learning model in a meaningful order instead of a random order. The main challenge of Curriculum Learning is determining how to rank these samples. The ranking of the samples is expressed by the scoring function. In this study, scoring functions were compared using data set features, using the model to be trained, and using another model and their ensemble versions. Experiments were performed for 4 images and 4 text datasets. No significant differences were found between scoring functions for text datasets, but significant improvements were obtained in scoring functions created using transfer learning compared to classical model training and other scoring functions for image datasets. It shows that different new scoring functions are waiting to be found for text classification tasks.

This study explores the feasibility of using large language models (LLMs), specifically GPT-4o (ChatGPT), for automated grading of conceptual questions in an undergraduate Mechanical Engineering course. We compared the grading performance of GPT-4o with that of human teaching assistants (TAs) on ten quiz problems from the MEEN 361 course at Texas A&M University, each answered by approximately 225 students. Both the LLM and TAs followed the same instructor-provided rubric to ensure grading consistency. We evaluated performance using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) to assess the alignment between rankings and the accuracy of scores assigned by GPT-4o and TAs under zero- and few-shot grading settings. In the zero-shot setting, GPT-4o demonstrated a strong correlation with TA grading, with Spearman's rank correlation coefficient exceeding 0.6 in seven out of ten datasets and reaching a high of 0.9387. Our analysis reveals that GPT-4o performs well when grading criteria are straightforward but struggles with nuanced answers, particularly those involving synonyms not present in the rubric. The model also tends to grade more stringently in ambiguous cases compared to human TAs. Overall, ChatGPT shows promise as a tool for grading conceptual questions, offering scalability and consistency.

Agent skill libraries are becoming routable software assets: a retrieved skill can contribute instructions, scripts, resource bindings, and execution assumptions to an agent. This makes retrieval failures more specific than broad irrelevance. A system can find the right capability family yet expose the wrong same-capability representative. We study this failure as same-capability risk-exposure retrieval. Each benchmark unit pairs a helpful skill with a query-specific risky sibling that shares the capability family but differs on an execution-controlling contract, such as the required resource, precondition, procedure, or artifact. We introduce SameCapRisk-Bench, an auditable benchmark with 1,190 skill-risk units and 1,686 evaluation query cases: 694 marked-sibling units under public library pressure and 496 hard role-flip units where the same two skills swap helpful/risky roles across paired queries. The release records admission evidence, cue/leakage checks, source hashes, family relations, and fixed candidate pools. The benchmark reports helpful ranking together with harmful sibling rate (HSR@K), the top-K exposure of the marked risky sibling. On this benchmark, public SkillRouter, SkillRet, and R3-Skill retrieve helpful skills at high Recall@3 (0.848--0.888) but also expose marked risky siblings frequently (HSR@3 0.346--0.372). A fully public score-and-cluster pipeline lowers HSR@3 to 0.128--0.182, with Recall@3 of 0.713--0.776. Under a benchmark-trained reference scorer, public text-cluster and controlled resolvers reach HSR@3 0.012 and 0.007; the latter attains Recall@3 0.833. Skill retrieval should therefore report both capability matching and same-family risk exposure, with HSR serving as a targeted exposure certificate for fixed skill libraries.

Document rerankers determine what evidence reaches the downstream model in RAG and deep research, yet mainstream rerankers select by relevance matching, and individually relevant documents rarely constitute the complete, complementary, non-redundant set a complex information need demands. Prior work rewards a set by its aggregate rubric score, shifting the objective from ranking documents to composing sets. Yet that score is one scalar shared by every document in the set, so the supervision is sparse: a redundant document is rewarded with the rest whenever the set scores well, and a decisive one penalized with the rest whenever it does not; credit assignment leaves contributors indistinguishable from free riders. On-policy distillation could densify this supervision, but existing methods give every rollout the same fixed guidance, too prescriptive for strong rollouts and too abstract for weak ones. We therefore propose AdaTutoRank, a setwise reranker trained with Adaptive Tutoring Optimization (ATO) under a three-level hierarchy of nine rubric dimensions, which supplies silver labels for the cold start, rewards for reinforcement learning, and hints for distillation. ATO draws three hint forms of increasing specificity from the policy's own frozen snapshot: the rubrics alone, a self-selector's sibling-set chosen under rubrics, and a self-reflector's reflection contrasting the rollout with that sibling-set; each rollout receives the form matched to its quality. Re-scoring that rollout under the hint-conditioned frozen teacher and the hint-free snapshot distills the hint's effect into a token-level advantage that complements the group-relative outcome advantage. Across ten benchmarks spanning RAG, deep research, and setwise evaluation, AdaTutoRank attains the best overall performance while issuing fewer retrieval calls.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed for high-stakes medical applications, there has emerged a critical need for reliable and accurate evaluation methodologies. Traditional accuracy metrics fail inadequately as they neither capture question characteristics nor offer topic-specific insights. To address this gap, we introduce MedIRT, a rigorous evaluation framework grounded in Item Response Theory (IRT), the gold standard in high-stakes educational testing. Unlike previous research relying on archival data, we prospectively gathered fresh responses from 80 diverse LLMs on a balanced, 1,100-question USMLE-aligned benchmark. Using one unidimensional two-parameter logistic IRT model per topic, we estimate LLM's latent model ability jointly with question difficulty and discrimination, yielding more stable and nuanced performance rankings than accuracy alone. Notably, we identify distinctive ``spiky'' ability profiles, where overall rankings can be misleading due to highly specialized model abilities. While GPT-5 was the top performer in a majority of domains (8 of 11), it was outperformed in Social Science and Communication by Claude-3-opus, demonstrating that even an overall 23rd-ranked model can hold the top spot for specific competencies. Furthermore, we demonstrate IRT's utility in auditing benchmarks by identifying flawed questions. We synthesize these findings into a practical decision-support framework that integrates our multi-factor competency profiles with operational metrics. This work establishes a robust, psychometrically grounded methodology essential for the safe, effective, and trustworthy deployment of LLMs in healthcare.

Educational data filters have become a practical way to improve language-model pre-training, but most filters treat educational value as a single scalar property. This may be too broad for some applications, especially if the data set already features a high density of educational material. Useful learning material needs to be accurate, engaging, well structured, and appropriate for the intended audience and application (e.g. learner- vs teacher-facing). Following QuRating (Wettig et al. 2024), we introduce Edu-QuRating: a pipeline for multi-dimensional educational data scoring and curation. Edu-QuRating defines education-specific rubrics, uses an LLM judge to label sampled document pairs and distills those pairwise preferences into reusable Edu-QuRaters, which can score individual text chunks on a set of educational criteria. Across two sequence-classification base models and six educational criteria, the best Edu-QuRater recovers held-out GPT-4.1-mini pairwise judgements with mean accuracy 0.917. We then apply the resulting scorers in two applications. First, we investigate the potential of Edu-QuRaters for corpus filtering to improve pretraining of small language models. We scored 322.25M FineWeb-Edu-Fortified documents to obtain a filtered pre-training mixture. In matched single-run pre-training comparisons, models trained with Edu-QuRating-based mixtures reached higher observed aggregate accuracy across nine benchmarks than the FineWeb-Edu baseline, with gains concentrated in particular tasks. Second, we used Edu-QuRater scores as reward terms for GRPO post-training. In held-out pairwise judge evaluations, combining Edu-QuRater and answer-structure rewards produced responses preferred to the Qwen3-4B base model on both pedagogical quality and instruction following.