Daily Papers

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery is the primary data type used for sea ice mapping due to its spatio-temporal coverage and the ability to detect sea ice independent of cloud and lighting conditions. Automatic sea ice detection using SAR imagery remains problematic due to the presence of ambiguous signal and noise within the image. Conversely, ice and water are easily distinguishable using multispectral imagery (MSI), but in the polar regions the ocean's surface is often occluded by cloud or the sun may not appear above the horizon for many months. To address some of these limitations, this paper proposes a new tool trained using concurrent multispectral Visible and SAR imagery for sea Ice Detection (ViSual\_IceD). ViSual\_IceD is a convolution neural network (CNN) that builds on the classic U-Net architecture by containing two parallel encoder stages, enabling the fusion and concatenation of MSI and SAR imagery containing different spatial resolutions. The performance of ViSual\_IceD is compared with U-Net models trained using concatenated MSI and SAR imagery as well as models trained exclusively on MSI or SAR imagery. ViSual\_IceD outperforms the other networks, with a F1 score 1.60\% points higher than the next best network, and results indicate that ViSual\_IceD is selective in the image type it uses during image segmentation. Outputs from ViSual\_IceD are compared to sea ice concentration products derived from the AMSR2 Passive Microwave (PMW) sensor. Results highlight how ViSual\_IceD is a useful tool to use in conjunction with PMW data, particularly in coastal regions. As the spatial-temporal coverage of MSI and SAR imagery continues to increase, ViSual\_IceD provides a new opportunity for robust, accurate sea ice coverage detection in polar regions.

Sea ice is governed by highly complex, scale-invariant, and anisotropic processes that are challenging to represent in Earth system models. While advanced numerical models have improved our understanding of the sea-ice dynamics, their computational costs often limit their application in ensemble forecasting and climate simulations. Here, we introduce GenSIM, the first generative AI-based pan-Arctic model that predicts the evolution of all relevant key properties, including concentration, thickness, and drift, in a 12-hour window with improved accuracy over deterministic predictions and high computational efficiency, while remaining physically consistent. Trained on a long simulation from a state-of-the-art sea-ice--ocean system, GenSIM robustly reproduces statistics as observed in numerical models and observations, exhibiting brittle-like short-term dynamics while also depicting the long-term sea-ice decline. Driven solely by atmospheric forcings, we attribute GenSIM's emergent extrapolation capabilities to patterns that reflect the long-term impact of the ocean: it seemingly has learned an internal ocean emulator. This ability to infer slowly evolving climate-relevant dynamics from short-term predictions underlines the large potential of generative models to generalise for unseen climates and to encode hidden physics.

While previous versions of the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE) have been trained with CO_2 as a forcing, they are only accurate within a narrow range of scenarios, for example climate over the last 80 years forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and CO_2 (AMIP), or equilibrium or near-equilibrium climates with CO_2 concentrations ranging from 1x to 4x that of the present day. Attempting to simulate climate forced by AMIP SST perturbed by +4 K or the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO_2, results in unphysical behavior. We attribute this to these models being trained on datasets where the SST and CO_2 are correlated, limiting their ability to accurately learn their separate effects. In this study we introduce a new class of "random-CO_2" reference simulations where the SST and CO_2 are prescribed to vary independently. Trained on a balance of AMIP, equilibrium-climate, and random-CO_2 data, and including a total energy conservation constraint for improved interpretability, we present a more data-efficient model that not only accurately emulates its reference model in scenarios in which previous models excelled, but also scenarios like AMIP +4 K and slab-ocean-coupled abrupt 4xCO_2 where they did not. Limitations are that it has simplified or prescribed representations of other Earth system components like the ocean, land, and sea ice; does not expose other known climate drivers as forcings; and relies solely on physics-based model output for training data, inheriting the biases relative to observations thereof. Each of these represent opportunities for future work.

We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state given the prescribed sea surface temperatures and incoming solar radiation. CAMulator explicitly conserves global dry air mass, moisture, and total atmospheric energy while remaining numerically stable over indefinite climate integrations. It successfully reproduces the annual CAM6 climatology and key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American pattern, with slightly muted variability. When forced with sea surface temperature (SST) outside the training distribution, CAMulator exhibits a systematic cold bias in high-latitude regions, particularly in boreal winter, likely due to the absence of interactive land and sea ice. Nonetheless, CAMulator achieves these results with a 350 times speedup over CAM6, making it an efficient alternative for generating large ensembles.

Geo-Foundation Models (GFMs) have been evaluated across diverse Earth observation task including multiple domains and have demonstrated strong potential of producing reliable maps even with sparse labels. However, benchmarking GFMs for Cryosphere applications has remained limited, primarily due to the lack of suitable evaluation datasets. To address this gap, we introduce Cryo-Bench, a benchmark compiled to evaluate GFM performance across key Cryospheric components. Cryo-Bench includes debris-covered glaciers, glacial lakes, sea ice, and calving fronts, spanning multiple sensors and broad geographic regions. We evaluate 14 GFMs alongside UNet and ViT baselines to assess their advantages, limitations, and optimal usage strategies. With a frozen encoder, UNet achieves the highest average mIoU of 66.38, followed by TerraMind at 64.02 across five evluation dataset included in Cryo-Bench. In the few-shot setting (10\% input data), GFMs such as DOFA and TerraMind outperform UNet, achieving mIoU scores of 59.53, 56.62, and 56.60, respectively, comapred to U-Net's 56.60. When fully finetuning GFMs, we observe inconsistent performance across datasets and models. However, tuning learning rate along with finetuning substantially improves GFM performance. For example, evaluation on two representative datasets (GLID and CaFFe) shows an average relative improvement of 12.77\%. Despite having minimal Cryosphere representation in their pretraining data, GFMs exhibit notable domain adaptation capabilities and produce meaningful results across tasks. Based on our findings, We recommend encoder fine-tuning with hyperparameter optimization optimization to achieve the best possible performance, while using frozen encoders when users need quick results without extensive experimentation.(https://github.com/Sk-2103/Cryo-Bench{GitHub}).

Deep generative vision models are now able to synthesize realistic-looking satellite imagery. But, the possibility of hallucinations prevents their adoption for risk-sensitive applications, such as generating materials for communicating climate change. To demonstrate this issue, we train a generative adversarial network (pix2pixHD) to create synthetic satellite imagery of future flooding and reforestation events. We find that a pure deep learning-based model can generate photorealistic flood visualizations but hallucinates floods at locations that were not susceptible to flooding. To address this issue, we propose to condition and evaluate generative vision models on segmentation maps of physics-based flood models. We show that our physics-conditioned model outperforms the pure deep learning-based model and a handcrafted baseline. We evaluate the generalization capability of our method to different remote sensing data and different climate-related events (reforestation). We publish our code and dataset which includes the data for a third case study of melting Arctic sea ice and >30,000 labeled HD image triplets -- or the equivalent of 5.5 million images at 128x128 pixels -- for segmentation guided image-to-image translation in Earth observation. Code and data is available at https://github.com/blutjens/eie-earth-public.

Traditional numerical global climate models simulate the full Earth system by exchanging boundary conditions between separate simulators of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and other geophysical processes. This paradigm allows for distributed development of individual components within a common framework, unified by a coupler that handles translation between realms via spatial or temporal alignment and flux exchange. Following a similar approach adapted for machine learning-based emulators, we present SamudrACE: a coupled global climate model emulator which produces centuries-long simulations at 1-degree horizontal, 6-hourly atmospheric, and 5-daily oceanic resolution, with 145 2D fields spanning 8 atmospheric and 19 oceanic vertical levels, plus sea ice, surface, and top-of-atmosphere variables. SamudrACE is highly stable and has low climate biases comparable to those of its components with prescribed boundary forcing, with realistic variability in coupled climate phenomena such as ENSO that is not possible to simulate in uncoupled mode.

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea ice. The primary objective of this extension is to enhance machine-learning medium-range forecasting and enable new use cases by expanding the weather state to better capture coupled surface processes. Our approach departs from traditional numerical models by not having two separate models for the atmosphere and marine components. The joint model instead learns correlations across the entire atmosphere-ocean interface in a component-agnostic way, and can exploit the expressive capacity of ML architectures to learn cross-component relationships directly from the data. We leverage tailored and targeted datasets and solve model design challenges such as missing values over land, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and physical realism of forecast fields and demonstrate the utility of loss scaling in guiding the learning process. We evaluate how representing the surface ocean affects medium-range weather forecasts. We also assess the model's ability to predict surface-ocean fields, including wave swell and tropical-cyclone cold wakes. For nearly all evaluated marine variables, we observe an improvement of approximately one day in forecast skill at medium-range lead times compared to physics-based models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model is robust to idealised initial conditions outside the training distribution and responds to them in a physically consistent way. Overall, our findings suggest that the joint AIFS modelling approach offers significant potential for combined atmosphere-ocean forecasting. Our work provides a solid foundation for future development of data-driven coupled Earth system models with greater flexibility and physical fidelity.

Vessel transit in ice-covered waters poses unique challenges in safe and efficient motion planning. When the concentration of ice is high, it may not be possible to find collision-free trajectories. Instead, ice can be pushed out of the way if it is small or if contact occurs near the edge of the ice. In this work, we propose a real-time navigation framework that minimizes collisions with ice and distance travelled by the vessel. We exploit a lattice-based planner with a cost that captures the ship interaction with ice. To address the dynamic nature of the environment, we plan motion in a receding horizon manner based on updated vessel and ice state information. Further, we present a novel planning heuristic for evaluating the cost-to-go, which is applicable to navigation in a channel without a fixed goal location. The performance of our planner is evaluated across several levels of ice concentration both in simulated and in real-world experiments.