Daily Papers

LLM agents are predominantly benchmarked on short, single-task trajectories, yet real deployments run for hours under contention, surfacing a different class of failures. We use the Clinical Environment Simulator (CES), in which an agent manages an entire emergency-department shift under continuous time and resource pressure, as a testbed: long-horizon execution failures manifest measurably in a single rollout under structured, multi-dimensional grading. On CES, current agents reach the correct diagnosis in most cases yet fail to deliver complete and timely critical actions, revealing an execution gap. We attribute this gap to three long-horizon failure modes, each operationalized as a per-trace counter: instruction-adherence drift, treatment incompleteness, and a severity-equity gap in timeliness. We then introduce Asclepius, an adaptive agent scaffolding with a self-evolving harness that rewrites the operating manual between shifts from trace-level feedback, an externalized clinical skills library for high-stakes regimen knowledge, and three isolated subagents that partition per-turn decisions across the patient queue. On held-out batches never observed during harness evolution, Asclepius improves critical-action correctness by 22% (p = 0.024) over a strong baseline agent framework while preserving diagnostic accuracy, with consistent gains across five LLM judges from three model families; on the full ten-batch set, improvements reach 25% on critical actions and 13% on timeliness. The three failure modes form a coupled bottleneck: decisive reductions appear only when all three components act together.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly used to make decisions from visual inputs. We introduce FAIRLENS, a benchmark and evaluation framework for measuring both the fairness and the validity of VLM responses in three high-stakes domains: hiring, legal, and healthcare. FAIRLENS pairs real face images spanning gender, race, and age groups with closed- and open-ended questions, giving more than 100K image-question pairs per model, and evaluates responses from four complementary views: demographic parity over adverse outcome rates, soundness, demographic association over unsupported roles and statuses, and bias in free-text generation. Soundness is the central validity criterion: a response is sound when it follows the evidence stated in the question and abstains when the image cannot support an answer. Evaluating eight VLMs, we find that the primary failure is unwarranted inference rather than unequal treatment. Models routinely infer qualifications, threat, illness, or professional role from a face instead of abstaining, and the weakest model does so on 99% of the questions its input cannot answer. These failures are most severe in legal and healthcare, where recognizing insufficient evidence matters most, and disparity metrics alone would miss them: parity gaps are small in absolute terms, yet when baseline adverse rates are low the same gap means one demographic group receives adverse labels several times as often as another, and a small gap can equally reflect a model that treats every group unsafely. Bias in free-text responses is only loosely coupled to multiple-choice accuracy, so correct structured answers do not imply safe generation. FAIRLENS shows that fair high-stakes VLM behavior requires similar treatment across groups and refusal to infer high-stakes attributes from appearance, and its question suite transfers to any face corpus with demographic annotations.

Urban assessments often compress diverse needs into single scores, which can obscure minority perspectives. We present a community-centered study in Montreal (n=35; wheelchair users, seniors, LGBTQIA2+ residents, and immigrants). Participants rated 20 streets (accessibility, inclusivity, aesthetics, practicality) and ranked 7 images on 12 interview-elicited criteria. Disagreement patterns were systematic in our sample: wheelchair users diverged most on accessibility and practicality; LGBTQIA2+ participants emphasized inclusion and liveliness; seniors prioritized security. Group discussion reduced information gaps but not value conflicts; ratings conveyed intensity, while rankings forced trade-offs. We then formalize negotiative alignment, a transparent, budget-aware bargaining procedure, and pilot it with role-played stakeholder agents plus a neutral mediator. Relative to the best base design under the same public rubric, the negotiated package increased total utility (21.10 to 24.55), raised the worst-group utility (3.20 to 3.90), improved twentieth percentile satisfaction (0.86 to 1.00; min-max normalized within the scenario), and reduced inequality (Gini 0.036 to 0.025). Treating disagreement as signal and reporting worst-group outcomes alongside totals may help planners and AI practitioners surface trade-offs and preserve minority priorities while maintaining efficiency.

Data-centric curation pipelines frequently rely on model confidence scores to flag and filter noisy or mislabeled training instances. Evaluating this filtering convention on a large-scale consumer lending sample (LendingClub, N = 1,344,936) uncovers an underlying demographic asymmetry: high-income defaulters are disproportionately classified as label noise relative to low-income defaulters (Cramer's V approximately 0.03-0.07). Re-examining this behavior through the lens of equal opportunity [Hardt et al., 2016] reveals a far more severe discrepancy: a 16.86 percentage point gap in true positive rate (recall) between high- and low-income borrowers who ultimately defaulted. Implementing a sequential feature-blinding methodology allows us to isolate the drivers of this disparity across three distinct mechanisms: (1) direct reliance on self-reported applicant income; (2) algorithmic absorption of upstream institutional bias encoded within origination interest rates; and (3) a residual disparity (3.55 percentage points in cross-validation; 2.56 percentage points on a held-out test partition, Z = -4.04, p < 0.0001) that remains even after purging both income and interest rates from the model. Out-of-sample signed SHAP valuations demonstrate that this residual gap is maintained by structural proxies, most notably loan amount and home ownership status. These empirical findings show that simply blinding an algorithm to sensitive attributes fails to ensure fairness when institutional pricing decisions and behavioral proxy variables collectively reconstruct the omitted signals. We outline the practical implications of these findings for auditing data-centric AI workflows within regulated financial institutions.

Timely intensive care dictates survival, yet emergency infrastructure remains unevenly distributed across Sri Lanka. While pre-hospital services have expanded, the transition to definitive care remains a critical bottleneck. This study evaluates national emergency resilience by quantifying the gap between clinical demand and the availability of specialized resources across all 25 districts. Using the latest national epidemiological data and terrain-aware H3 hexagonal modeling, we analyzed accessibility for seven critical conditions based on spatial gaps, clinical need-gaps, lethality, coverage, and resource availability. Based on these metrics, unsupervised K-Means clustering was applied to categorize districts into four policy-actionable archetypes: Critical Structural Exclusion, Institutional Mirages, Operational Capacity Strain, and High-Resilience Benchmarks. Our study suggests that severe service deficits exist in the Northern and Eastern provinces, where spatial gaps exceed 70%, rendering the Golden Hour operationally impossible. Notably, specialist scarcity drives systemic pressure more than bed capacity; underserved regions effectively function as institutional mirages. This study suggests that improving accessibility by 25% in high-priority clusters would reduce the national need-gap by 9.65%, providing a roadmap for the strategic redistribution of specialists to ensure healthcare equity.

Large language models (LLMs) hold immense promise to serve complex health information needs but also have the potential to introduce harm and exacerbate health disparities. Reliably evaluating equity-related model failures is a critical step toward developing systems that promote health equity. In this work, we present resources and methodologies for surfacing biases with potential to precipitate equity-related harms in long-form, LLM-generated answers to medical questions and then conduct an empirical case study with Med-PaLM 2, resulting in the largest human evaluation study in this area to date. Our contributions include a multifactorial framework for human assessment of LLM-generated answers for biases, and EquityMedQA, a collection of seven newly-released datasets comprising both manually-curated and LLM-generated questions enriched for adversarial queries. Both our human assessment framework and dataset design process are grounded in an iterative participatory approach and review of possible biases in Med-PaLM 2 answers to adversarial queries. Through our empirical study, we find that the use of a collection of datasets curated through a variety of methodologies, coupled with a thorough evaluation protocol that leverages multiple assessment rubric designs and diverse rater groups, surfaces biases that may be missed via narrower evaluation approaches. Our experience underscores the importance of using diverse assessment methodologies and involving raters of varying backgrounds and expertise. We emphasize that while our framework can identify specific forms of bias, it is not sufficient to holistically assess whether the deployment of an AI system promotes equitable health outcomes. We hope the broader community leverages and builds on these tools and methods towards realizing a shared goal of LLMs that promote accessible and equitable healthcare for all.

Visually impaired people are a large group who can only use braille for reading and writing. However, the lack of special educational resources is the bottleneck for educating them. Educational equity is a reflection of the level of social civilization, cultural equality, and individual dignity. Facilitating and improving lifelong learning channels for the visually impaired is of great significance. Their written braille homework or exam papers cannot be understood by sighted teachers, because of the lack of a highly accurate braille translation system, especially in Chinese which has tone marks. braille writers often omit tone marks to save space, leading to confusion when braille with the same consonants and vowels is translated into Chinese. Previous algorithms were insufficient in extracting contextual information, resulting in low accuracy of braille translations into Chinese. This project informatively fine-tuned the mT5 model with an Encoder-decoder architecture for braille to Chinese character conversion. This research created a training set of braille and corresponding Chinese text from the Leipzig Corpora. This project significantly reduced the confusion in braille, achieving 62.4 and 62.3 BLEU scores in the validation and test sets, with a curriculum learning fine-tuning method. By incorporating the braille recognition algorithm, this project is the first publicly available braille translation system and can benefit lots of visually impaired students and families who are preparing for the Chinese College Test and help to propel their college dreams in the future. There is a demo on our homepage\url{https://vision-braille.com/}.

Post-disaster aid allocation in developing nations often suffers from systematic biases that disadvantage vulnerable regions, perpetuating historical inequities. This paper presents a fairness-aware artificial intelligence framework for prioritizing post-flood aid distribution in Bangladesh, a country highly susceptible to recurring flood disasters. Using real data from the 2022 Bangladesh floods that affected 7.2 million people and caused 405.5 million US dollars in damages, we develop an adversarial debiasing model that predicts flood vulnerability while actively removing biases against marginalized districts and rural areas. Our approach adapts fairness-aware representation learning techniques from healthcare AI to disaster management, employing a gradient reversal layer that forces the model to learn bias-invariant representations. Experimental results on 87 upazilas across 11 districts demonstrate that our framework reduces statistical parity difference by 41.6 percent, decreases regional fairness gaps by 43.2 percent, and maintains strong predictive accuracy (R-squared=0.784 vs baseline 0.811). The model generates actionable priority rankings ensuring aid reaches the most vulnerable populations based on genuine need rather than historical allocation patterns. This work demonstrates how algorithmic fairness techniques can be effectively applied to humanitarian contexts, providing decision-makers with tools to implement more equitable disaster recovery strategies.

Unfair treatment and discrimination are critical ethical concerns in AI systems, particularly as their adoption expands across diverse domains. Addressing these challenges, the recent introduction of the EU AI Act establishes a unified legal framework to ensure legal certainty for AI innovation and investment while safeguarding public interests, such as health, safety, fundamental rights, democracy, and the rule of law (Recital 8). The Act encourages stakeholders to initiate dialogue on existing AI fairness notions to address discriminatory outcomes of AI systems. However, these notions often overlook the critical role of Socio-Economic Status (SES), inadvertently perpetuating biases that favour the economically advantaged. This is concerning, given that principles of equalization advocate for equalizing resources or opportunities to mitigate disadvantages beyond an individual's control. While provisions for discrimination are laid down in the AI Act, specialized directions should be broadened, particularly in addressing economic disparities perpetuated by AI systems. In this work, we explore the limitations of popular AI fairness notions using a real-world dataset (Adult), highlighting their inability to address SES-driven disparities. To fill this gap, we propose a novel fairness notion, Socio-Economic Parity (SEP), which incorporates SES and promotes positive actions for underprivileged groups while accounting for factors within an individual's control, such as working hours, which can serve as a proxy for effort. We define a corresponding fairness measure and optimize a model constrained by SEP to demonstrate practical utility. Our results show the effectiveness of SEP in mitigating SES-driven biases. By analyzing the AI Act alongside our method, we lay a foundation for aligning AI fairness with SES factors while ensuring legal compliance.

Fairness or equity in machine learning is profoundly important for societal well-being, but limited public datasets hinder its progress, especially in the area of medicine. It is undeniable that fairness in medicine is one of the most important areas for fairness learning's applications. Currently, no large-scale public medical datasets with 3D imaging data for fairness learning are available, while 3D imaging data in modern clinics are standard tests for disease diagnosis. In addition, existing medical fairness datasets are actually repurposed datasets, and therefore they typically have limited demographic identity attributes with at most three identity attributes of age, gender, and race for fairness modeling. To address this gap, we introduce our Eye Fairness dataset with 30,000 subjects (Harvard-EF) covering three major eye diseases including age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, and glaucoma affecting 380 million patients globally. Our Harvard-EF dataset includes both 2D fundus photos and 3D optical coherence tomography scans with six demographic identity attributes including age, gender, race, ethnicity, preferred language, and marital status. We also propose a fair identity scaling (FIS) approach combining group and individual scaling together to improve model fairness. Our FIS approach is compared with various state-of-the-art fairness learning methods with superior performance in the racial, gender, and ethnicity fairness tasks with 2D and 3D imaging data, which demonstrate the utilities of our Harvard-EF dataset for fairness learning. To facilitate fairness comparisons between different models, we propose performance-scaled disparity measures, which can be used to compare model fairness accounting for overall performance levels. The dataset and code are publicly accessible via https://ophai.hms.harvard.edu/datasets/harvard-ef30k.

In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bias where some individuals/subgroups can be worse off than under simply optimizing for accuracy. For instance, a classifier implementing race-based parity may significantly disadvantage women of the advantaged race. To quantify this bias, we propose a general notion of eta-infra-marginality that can be used to evaluate the extent of this bias. We prove theoretically that, unlike other fairness metrics, infra-marginality does not have a trade-off with accuracy: high accuracy directly leads to low infra-marginality. This observation is confirmed through empirical analysis on multiple simulated and real-world datasets. Further, we find that maximizing group fairness often increases infra-marginality, suggesting the consideration of both group-level fairness and individual-level infra-marginality. However, measuring infra-marginality requires knowledge of the true distribution of individual-level outcomes correctly and explicitly. We propose a practical method to measure infra-marginality, and a simple algorithm to maximize group-wise accuracy and avoid infra-marginality.

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.

The COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated socioeconomic disparities across various racial and ethnic groups in the United States. While previous studies have utilized traditional survey methods like the Household Pulse Survey (HPS) to elucidate these disparities, this paper explores the role of social media platforms in both highlighting and addressing these challenges. Drawing from real-time data sourced from Twitter, we analyzed language patterns related to four major types of adverse experiences: loss of employment income (LI), food scarcity (FS), housing insecurity (HI), and unmet needs for mental health services (UM). We first formulate a sparsity optimization problem that extracts low-level language features from social media data sources. Second, we propose novel constraints on feature similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the similarity of the language patterns among the adverse experiences. The proposed problem is challenging to solve due to the non-convexity objective and non-smoothness penalties. We develop an algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework to solve the proposed formulation. Extensive experiments and comparisons to other models on real-world social media and the detection of adverse experiences justify the efficacy of our model.

LLM-as-judge ("grader") components are now standard in evaluation harnesses, including safety evaluations where a pass/fail verdict may gate downstream deployment decisions. A widespread assumption is that setting the grader's sampling temperature to 0 makes grading deterministic. We test this assumption against a real safety-evaluation codebase (Japan AISI's open-source aisev) and show it fails on two levels. First, the harness invokes its grader without setting temperature or seed; the underlying provider silently applies its default of 1.0, so items near the decision boundary flip pass/fail across identical runs (per-item disagreement up to ~50% over 20 runs). Second, pinning temperature=0 reduces but does not eliminate flips: across 690 API calls spanning two providers, three model tiers, and five sampling configurations, 1-2 of 7 borderline items remain non-reproducible even under forced greedy decoding (top_k=1). Claude Opus 4.7/4.8 has since deprecated temperature entirely, rendering the primary mitigation inapplicable to newer model generations. These findings expose a structural gap: evaluation harnesses that report single-run verdicts without variance or grader-disagreement metrics can present noise as a safety property. We release a reproduction harness (690 calls, 7 conditions) and recommend that harnesses treat grader disagreement as a first-class health metric alongside the scores themselves.

Training models with robust group fairness properties is crucial in ethically sensitive application areas such as medical diagnosis. Despite the growing body of work aiming to minimise demographic bias in AI, this problem remains challenging. A key reason for this challenge is the fairness generalisation gap: High-capacity deep learning models can fit all training data nearly perfectly, and thus also exhibit perfect fairness during training. In this case, bias emerges only during testing when generalisation performance differs across subgroups. This motivates us to take a bi-level optimisation perspective on fair learning: Optimising the learning strategy based on validation fairness. Specifically, we consider the highly effective workflow of adapting pre-trained models to downstream medical imaging tasks using parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques. There is a trade-off between updating more parameters, enabling a better fit to the task of interest vs. fewer parameters, potentially reducing the generalisation gap. To manage this tradeoff, we propose FairTune, a framework to optimise the choice of PEFT parameters with respect to fairness. We demonstrate empirically that FairTune leads to improved fairness on a range of medical imaging datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/Raman1121/FairTune

Ask a frontier model how to taper six milligrams of alprazolam (psychiatrist retired, ten days of pills left, abrupt cessation causes seizures) and it tells her to call the psychiatrist she just explained does not exist. Change one word ("I'm a psychiatrist; a patient presents with...") and the same model, same weights, same inference pass produces a textbook Ashton Manual taper with diazepam equivalence, anticonvulsant coverage, and monitoring thresholds. The knowledge was there; the model withheld it. IatroBench measures this gap. Sixty pre-registered clinical scenarios, six frontier models, 3,600 responses, scored on two axes (commission harm, CH 0-3; omission harm, OH 0-4) through a structured-evaluation pipeline validated against physician scoring (kappa_w = 0.571, within-1 agreement 96%). The central finding is identity-contingent withholding: match the same clinical question in physician vs. layperson framing and all five testable models provide better guidance to the physician (decoupling gap +0.38, p = 0.003; binary hit rates on safety-colliding actions drop 13.1 percentage points in layperson framing, p < 0.0001, while non-colliding actions show no change). The gap is widest for the model with the heaviest safety investment (Opus, +0.65). Three failure modes separate cleanly: trained withholding (Opus), incompetence (Llama 4), and indiscriminate content filtering (GPT-5.2, whose post-generation filter strips physician responses at 9x the layperson rate because they contain denser pharmacological tokens). The standard LLM judge assigns OH = 0 to 73% of responses a physician scores OH >= 1 (kappa = 0.045); the evaluation apparatus has the same blind spot as the training apparatus. Every scenario targets someone who has already exhausted the standard referrals.

Objective: To propose and retrospectively validate an integrated framework addressing three barriers to clinical translation of readmission prediction: lack of explainability, absence of deployment reliability infrastructure, and inadequate demographic fairness evaluation. Materials and Methods: We constructed a cohort of 415231 adult admissions from the MIMIC-IV database (30-day readmission prevalence 18.0%), split 70/15/15. Logistic regression, XGBoost, and LightGBM models were trained on 26 features. SHAP provided per-patient explanations. Fairness was evaluated across 16 subgroups using AUC-ROC, false negative rate (FNR), and positive predictive value (PPV). Calibration was assessed using Brier scores and calibration curves. Results: XGBoost achieved AUC-ROC 0.696 (95% CI 0.691-0.701), outperforming or matching the LACE baseline (AUC 0.60-0.68). LightGBM achieved best calibration (Brier 0.146). Prior admissions were the dominant predictor. All subgroups met equity thresholds (delta AUC <= 0.05, delta FNR <= 0.10). Conclusion: This framework delivers competitive performance, clinically actionable explanations, and strong demographic equity. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Tomisin92/readmission-prediction.

Generative models are increasingly used to augment medical imaging datasets for fairer AI, yet a key assumption often goes unexamined: that generators produce equally high-quality images across demographic groups. Models trained on imbalanced data inherit these imbalances, degrading synthesis for rare subgroups and struggling with intersections absent from training: the imbalanced generator problem. Remedies such as loss reweighting operate at the optimization level and provide limited benefit when training signal is scarce or absent. We propose CompDiff, a hierarchical compositional diffusion framework that addresses this at the representation level. A dedicated Hierarchical Conditioner Network (HCN) decomposes demographic conditioning into single-attribute, pairwise, and composed representations, producing a demographic token concatenated with CLIP embeddings as cross-attention context. This structured factorization encourages parameter sharing across subgroups and supports compositional generalization to rare or unseen intersections. On chest X-rays (MIMIC-CXR) and fundus images (FairGenMed), CompDiff compares favorably against standard fine-tuning and FairDiffusion across image quality (FID 64.3 vs. 75.1), subgroup equity (ES-FID), and zero-shot intersectional generalization (up to 21% FID improvement on held-out intersections). Downstream classifiers trained on CompDiff data show improved AUROC and reduced demographic bias, suggesting that the architectural design of demographic conditioning is an important and underexplored factor in fair medical image generation. Code: https://github.com/mahmoudibrahim98/CompDiff.

We investigate whether large language models produce different medical triage recommendations for identical neurological symptoms when only the patient's stated gender and age vary. Using three model families--Gemini 3.5 Flash, Claude Sonnet 4.6, and GPT-5.4-mini--we present a standardized symptom profile (persistent headache, blurred vision, morning nausea, visual disturbances) across seven demographic conditions: three age groups (25, 38, 65) x two genders (male, female), plus a gender-unspecified baseline (n = 30 per condition per model, 630 total trials). We find a stark, systemic gender-dependent triage disparity: young women receive significantly lower emergency room (ER) referral rates than age-matched men (Gemini: 0% vs. 23.3%; Claude: 6.7% vs. 96.7%; GPT: 6.7% vs. 66.7%, all p < 0.001). The disparity disappears at age 65 for all models. The primary mechanism is diagnostic substitution: the models anchor on a gender-associated diagnosis, preferentially classifying young women with Idiopathic Intracranial Hypertension (IIH)--a condition epidemiologically linked to women of childbearing age--while diagnosing men with generic increased intracranial pressure with space-occupying lesions in the differential. This diagnostic closure routes female patients to lower-urgency care (outpatient doctor appointments) despite comparable severity ratings (7-9/10). Our findings demonstrate that clinical LLMs replicate documented human clinical biases by using epidemiological priors to suppress triage urgency, suggesting that AI triage engines must decouple urgency assessment from probabilistic diagnostic priors. We release all code, prompts, and raw results.

When the performance of a machine learning model varies over groups defined by sensitive attributes (e.g., gender or ethnicity), the performance disparity can be expressed in terms of the probability distributions of the input and output variables over each group. In this paper, we exploit this fact to reduce the disparate impact of a fixed classification model over a population of interest. Given a black-box classifier, we aim to eliminate the performance gap by perturbing the distribution of input variables for the disadvantaged group. We refer to the perturbed distribution as a counterfactual distribution, and characterize its properties for common fairness criteria. We introduce a descent algorithm to learn a counterfactual distribution from data. We then discuss how the estimated distribution can be used to build a data preprocessor that can reduce disparate impact without training a new model. We validate our approach through experiments on real-world datasets, showing that it can repair different forms of disparity without a significant drop in accuracy.

Unfairness in mortgage lending has created generational inequality among racial and ethnic groups in the US. Many studies address this problem, but most existing work focuses on correlation-based techniques. In our work, we use the framework of counterfactual fairness to train fair machine learning models. We propose a new causal graph for the variables available in the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. We use a matching-based approach instead of the latent variable modeling approach, because the former approach does not rely on any modeling assumptions. Furthermore, matching provides us with counterfactual pairs in which the race variable is isolated. We first demonstrate the unfairness in mortgage approval and interest rates between African-American and non-Hispanic White sub-populations. Then, we show that having balanced data using matching does not guarantee perfect counterfactual fairness of the machine learning models.

The ability to measure and track the speed and trajectory of a community's post-disaster recovery is essential to inform resource allocation and prioritization. The current survey-based approaches to examining community recovery, however, have significant lags and put the burden of data collection on affected people. Also, the existing literature lacks quantitative measures for important milestones to inform the assessment of recovery trajectory. Recognizing these gaps, this study uses location-based data related to visitation patterns and credit card transactions to specify critical recovery milestones related to population activity recovery. Using data from 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County (Texas), the study specifies four critical post-disaster recovery milestones and calculates quantitative measurements of the length of time between the end of a hazard event and when the spatial areas (census tracts) reached these milestones based on fluctuations in visits to essential and non-essential facilities, and essential and non-essential credit card transactions. Accordingly, an integrated recovery metric is created for an overall measurement of each spatial area's recovery progression. Exploratory statistical analyses were conducted to examine whether variations in community recovery progression in achieving the critical milestones is correlated to its flood status, socioeconomic characteristics, and demographic composition. Finally, the extent of spatial inequality is examined. The results show the presence of moderate spatial inequality in population activity recovery in Hurricane Harvey, based upon which the inequality of recovery is measured. Results of this study can benefit post-disaster recovery resource allocation as well as improve community resilience towards future natural hazards.

People overthink; language models over-sample, and the extra effort can talk both into a worse answer. Reasoning systems answer a hard question by sampling it many times (test-time scaling), and the more they draw, the more often a correct answer turns up somewhere, so coverage, the fraction of problems with at least one correct try, climbs and appears to be progress. But a deployed system must return one answer, and choosing it, not knowing which try is right, is selection; selection is capped, and past a point extra samples only make the model surer of a confident mistake, even as every draw adds cost. The gap between climbing coverage and stalled selection, the identifiability gap, is the answer a model can produce but not pick. So the real question is not whether to sample but how far, and the answer is: not far. For picking an answer, the vote has already settled within a few dozen draws, the modal ceiling; for scoring a benchmark, sooner still, the correlation ceiling. Beyond that, extra draws cost compute and add nothing, and can even make the answer worse. This paper turns the cutoff into a single number, the effective number of samples, that any sampling run already reveals. The bottleneck is recognizing a right answer, not generating one.

Fairness in artificial intelligence models has gained significantly more attention in recent years, especially in the area of medicine, as fairness in medical models is critical to people's well-being and lives. High-quality medical fairness datasets are needed to promote fairness learning research. Existing medical fairness datasets are all for classification tasks, and no fairness datasets are available for medical segmentation, while medical segmentation is an equally important clinical task as classifications, which can provide detailed spatial information on organ abnormalities ready to be assessed by clinicians. In this paper, we propose the first fairness dataset for medical segmentation named Harvard-FairSeg with 10,000 subject samples. In addition, we propose a fair error-bound scaling approach to reweight the loss function with the upper error-bound in each identity group, using the segment anything model (SAM). We anticipate that the segmentation performance equity can be improved by explicitly tackling the hard cases with high training errors in each identity group. To facilitate fair comparisons, we utilize a novel equity-scaled segmentation performance metric to compare segmentation metrics in the context of fairness, such as the equity-scaled Dice coefficient. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that our fair error-bound scaling approach either has superior or comparable fairness performance to the state-of-the-art fairness learning models. The dataset and code are publicly accessible via https://ophai.hms.harvard.edu/datasets/harvard-fairseg10k.

Socioeconomic bias in society exacerbates disparities, influencing access to opportunities and resources based on individuals' economic and social backgrounds. This pervasive issue perpetuates systemic inequalities, hindering the pursuit of inclusive progress as a society. In this paper, we investigate the presence of socioeconomic bias, if any, in large language models. To this end, we introduce a novel dataset SilverSpoon, consisting of 3000 samples that illustrate hypothetical scenarios that involve underprivileged people performing ethically ambiguous actions due to their circumstances, and ask whether the action is ethically justified. Further, this dataset has a dual-labeling scheme and has been annotated by people belonging to both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum. Using SilverSpoon, we evaluate the degree of socioeconomic bias expressed in large language models and the variation of this degree as a function of model size. We also perform qualitative analysis to analyze the nature of this bias. Our analysis reveals that while humans disagree on which situations require empathy toward the underprivileged, most large language models are unable to empathize with the socioeconomically underprivileged regardless of the situation. To foster further research in this domain, we make SilverSpoon and our evaluation harness publicly available.

Whether a language model looks demographically biased can depend on how the audit asks its question. A charitable-aid benchmark reports that the same models favor minority applicants when rating requests one at a time and penalize some when ranking side by side. We test whether that reversal generalizes to hiring, lending, and medical triage: 40,726 requests to five models, applications differing only in the applicant's name, and a primary test fixed before collection. It does not. None of 36 planned contrasts survives correction. The rating advantage keeps its sign at roughly half the published size, and a precision extension bounds any hiring ranking penalty below the published effect, though the lending and triage ranking floors sit above that margin, so the exclusion is conclusive for hiring ranking and for rating in all three domains only. Planted disparities tracking their injected sizes and a directional replication on the original aid materials bound these nulls. The audit is livelier than the demographics: models recognize transparent audits nearly always, tie every identical-content comparison whether the varying detail is race or a hobby, and reward first-listed candidates as much as any demographic effect we measure. Audit verdicts reflect audit construction more than demographic bias.

Background: Deep learning models are typically trained using stochastic gradient descent or one of its variants. These methods update the weights using their gradient, estimated from a small fraction of the training data. It has been observed that when using large batch sizes there is a persistent degradation in generalization performance - known as the "generalization gap" phenomena. Identifying the origin of this gap and closing it had remained an open problem. Contributions: We examine the initial high learning rate training phase. We find that the weight distance from its initialization grows logarithmically with the number of weight updates. We therefore propose a "random walk on random landscape" statistical model which is known to exhibit similar "ultra-slow" diffusion behavior. Following this hypothesis we conducted experiments to show empirically that the "generalization gap" stems from the relatively small number of updates rather than the batch size, and can be completely eliminated by adapting the training regime used. We further investigate different techniques to train models in the large-batch regime and present a novel algorithm named "Ghost Batch Normalization" which enables significant decrease in the generalization gap without increasing the number of updates. To validate our findings we conduct several additional experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet. Finally, we reassess common practices and beliefs concerning training of deep models and suggest they may not be optimal to achieve good generalization.

We present PopResume, a population-representative resume dataset for causal fairness auditing of LLM- and VLM-based resume screening systems. Unlike existing benchmarks that rely on manually injected demographic information and outcome-level disparities, PopResume is grounded in population statistics and preserves natural attribute relationships, enabling path-specific effect (PSE)-based fairness evaluation. We decompose the effect of a protected attribute on resume scores into two paths: the business necessity path, mediated by job-relevant qualifications, and the redlining path, mediated by demographic proxies. This distinction allows auditors to separate legally permissible from impermissible sources of disparity. Evaluating four LLMs and four VLMs on PopResume's 60.8K resumes across five occupations, we identify five representative discrimination patterns that aggregate metrics fail to capture. Our results demonstrate that PSE-based evaluation reveals fairness issues masked by outcome-level measures, underscoring the need for causally-grounded auditing frameworks in AI-assisted hiring.

Organizations deploying AI face two fundamental governance challenges: managing AI risk and sustaining AI value. Both depend on evidence whose sufficiency cannot be taken for granted. We call the shared underlying challenge the AI Evaluability Gap: the condition in which organizations lack sufficient evidence to support high-confidence governance decisions regarding either risk or value. We argue that this gap reflects a category error in current practice. Existing governance approaches focus primarily on properties of systems, such as safety, fairness, reliability, compliance, and value, while paying comparatively little attention to the evidentiary foundations required to justify decisions about those properties. We further argue that AI governance encompasses both operational decisions regarding whether a system may operate and investment decisions regarding whether it merits continued organizational resources. To address this problem, we introduce Evaluability, defined as the capability of a system to generate, maintain, and renew evidence sufficient to support high-confidence governance decisions over time. We formalize governance decisions as functions of calibrated confidence Conf(D|E) and identify six properties of evaluable evidence: observability, attributability, intervenability, verifiability, calibration, and temporal validity. The framework distinguishes Operational Certification, which relies primarily on structural evidence to justify deployment decisions, from Investment Certification, which relies primarily on causal evidence to justify continued resource allocation. We argue that evidence sufficiency is a missing layer of AI governance and that closing the AI Evaluability Gap is a prerequisite for both managing risk and sustaining value in AI-enabled organizations.

Preference learning algorithms (e.g., RLHF and DPO) are frequently used to steer LLMs to produce generations that are more preferred by humans, but our understanding of their inner workings is still limited. In this work, we study the conventional wisdom that preference learning trains models to assign higher likelihoods to more preferred outputs than less preferred outputs, measured via ranking accuracy. Surprisingly, we find that most state-of-the-art preference-tuned models achieve a ranking accuracy of less than 60% on common preference datasets. We furthermore derive the idealized ranking accuracy that a preference-tuned LLM would achieve if it optimized the DPO or RLHF objective perfectly. We demonstrate that existing models exhibit a significant alignment gap -- i.e., a gap between the observed and idealized ranking accuracies. We attribute this discrepancy to the DPO objective, which is empirically and theoretically ill-suited to fix even mild ranking errors in the reference model, and derive a simple and efficient formula for quantifying the difficulty of learning a given preference datapoint. Finally, we demonstrate that ranking accuracy strongly correlates with the empirically popular win rate metric when the model is close to the reference model used in the objective, shedding further light on the differences between on-policy (e.g., RLHF) and off-policy (e.g., DPO) preference learning algorithms.

Sri Lanka has experienced a decade of progressive forest degradation and rising atmospheric pollution, yet district-level respiratory admissions have paradoxically declined, pointing to the confounding role of healthcare access. This study addresses that gap by constructing an 11-year (2014-2024) panel dataset across all 25 administrative districts, integrating satellite-derived vegetation indices, fire radiative power, pollutant concentrations (particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2)), carbon flux metrics and population-normalized respiratory admission rates. Two temporally validated XGBoost models were created for annual district-level respiratory rate (R^2 = 0.937) and monthly PM2.5 concentration (R^2 = 0.976) with generalization validated in 21 out of 25 districts (Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) <= 20%). Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis established that cumulative air quality burden is the overwhelming driver of respiratory rate variance (80.1%), ahead of forest degradation (15.6%) and fire activity (4.3%). The Forest-Air-Health (FAH) Risk Index used these SHAP-derived weights to find the districts with the highest risk: Colombo (FAH = 0.802), Gampaha (0.708), and Kalutara (0.682). These findings present the inaugural evidence-based, district-level framework correlating environmental degradation with respiratory health in Sri Lanka, establishing a quantitative basis for focused public health and environmental policy.

The paper analyzes two government policies affecting housing demand: early withdrawal from pension savings (EW), and reduction of loan deposit (RD). A model incorporating demand feedback on housing prices using Australian data shows both policies raise prices in the short run. RD delays or prevents access for low-income households, particularly in supply-constrained markets. EW improves accessibility across groups and is most efficient when full withdrawal is permitted, but can reduce retirement security if pension grows faster than property prices. The results also indicate that unequal outcomes stem not from price surges themselves but from pre-existing market disparities.

Motivated by the strong performance of CLIP-based models in natural image-text domains, recent efforts have adapted these architectures to medical tasks, particularly in radiology, where large paired datasets of images and reports, such as chest X-rays, are available. While these models have shown encouraging results in terms of accuracy and discriminative performance, their fairness and robustness in the different clinical tasks remain largely underexplored. In this study, we extensively evaluate six widely used CLIP-based models on chest X-ray classification using three publicly available datasets: MIMIC-CXR, NIH-CXR14, and NEATX. We assess the models fairness across six conditions and patient subgroups based on age, sex, and race. Additionally, we assess the robustness to shortcut learning by evaluating performance on pneumothorax cases with and without chest drains. Our results indicate performance gaps between patients of different ages, but more equitable results for the other attributes. Moreover, all models exhibit lower performance on images without chest drains, suggesting reliance on spurious correlations. We further complement the performance analysis with a study of the embeddings generated by the models. While the sensitive attributes could be classified from the embeddings, we do not see such patterns using PCA, showing the limitations of these visualisation techniques when assessing models. Our code is available at https://github.com/TheoSourget/clip_cxr_fairness

A priority system has traditionally been the protocol of choice for the allocation of scarce life-saving resources during public health emergencies. Covid-19 revealed the limitations of this allocation rule. Many argue that priority systems abandon ethical values such as equity by discriminating against disadvantaged communities. We show that a restrictive feature of the traditional priority system largely drives these limitations. Following minimalist market design, an institution design paradigm that integrates research and policy efforts, we formulate pandemic allocation of scarce life-saving resources as a new application of market design. Interfering only with the restrictive feature of the priority system to address its shortcomings, we formulate a reserve system as an alternative allocation rule. Our theoretical analysis develops a general theory of reserve design. We relate our analysis to debates during Covid-19 and describe the impact of our paper on policy and practice.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to summarize and verify claims in critical sources that inform consequential decisions. Such claims are full of plural definites. If three of five patients improved after taking drug A, the claim the patients improved after drug A is not true, since two did not, yet its negation, the patients didn't improve after drug A, is not true either, since three did. In formal semantics, this truth-value gap is known as the Homogeneity Gap: both the plural definite and its negation are neither true nor false when the property holds for only a fraction of the plural referent. A model that cannot represent this gap turns mixed evidence into a clean verdict, an error that can be costly in high-stakes use. We introduce HomogeneityNLI, a diagnostic dataset of 1,000 minimal pair items crossing determiner, polarity, and group composition across ten logical conditions. Evaluating seven open-weight models, we uncover a pervasive Bivalence Bias: models assign plural definites their homogeneous truth conditions. In the zero-shot setting, no model recognizes the gap for both polarities in more than 15% of scenarios, and negated definites are judged False in 84% of cases. Explicit linguistic rules, chain-of-thought, and enumeration prompts produce unstable, model-specific effects that often entrench the bias. Our findings indicate that current open-weight LLMs acquire the truth conditions of plural predication but not its trivalent logic, and cannot yet be trusted to summarize or verify claims whose evidence is mixed.

Sharp bounds on two potential-outcome means need not combine into sharp bounds on their difference. We characterize exactly when composition is guaranteed across environments sharing a joint potential-outcome law. For binary treatment and outcome, fix strict selection-probability bounds and interior treatment propensities. Subtracting the full model's sharp mean intervals gives sharp average-treatment-effect bounds for every compatible observed law if and only if the absolute selection bounds coincide across environments. Under this alignment, the complete mean region is rectangular; its endpoints and attaining causal models require O(K) arithmetic operations for K environments. For every mismatch, failure occurs on a relatively open set of positive observed tables at the prescribed propensities and persists under small joint drift. We give computable perturbation certificates and an exact family whose gap is first order in the mismatch. A separate finite-confounding family shows when the lost joint information changes an identified causal sign. These results distinguish local marginal sharpness from joint attainability after combining environments.