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Aug 24

Climate Modelling in Low-Precision: Effects of both Deterministic & Stochastic Rounding

Motivated by recent advances in operational weather forecasting, we study the efficacy of low-precision arithmetic for climate simulations. We develop a framework to measure rounding error in a climate model which provides a stress-test for a low-precision version of the model, and we apply our method to a variety of models including the Lorenz system; a shallow water approximation for flow over a ridge; and a coarse resolution global atmospheric model with simplified parameterisations (SPEEDY). Although double precision (52 significant bits) is standard across operational climate models, in our experiments we find that single precision (23 sbits) is more than enough and that as low as half precision (10 sbits) is often sufficient. For example, SPEEDY can be run with 12 sbits across the entire code with negligible rounding error and this can be lowered to 10 sbits if very minor errors are accepted, amounting to less than 0.1 mm/6hr for the average grid-point precipitation, for example. Our test is based on the Wasserstein metric and this provides stringent non-parametric bounds on rounding error accounting for annual means as well as extreme weather events. In addition, by testing models using both round-to-nearest (RN) and stochastic rounding (SR) we find that SR can mitigate rounding error across a range of applications. Thus our results also provide evidence that SR could be relevant to next-generation climate models. While many studies have shown that low-precision arithmetic can be suitable on short-term weather forecasting timescales, our results give the first evidence that a similar low precision level can be suitable for climate.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 30, 2021

amerta: A Python Library for Idealized 1D Saint--Venant Dam-Break Simulation

The Saint-Venant shallow water equations (SWE) govern depth-integrated free-surface flows arising in dam-break inundation, flood routing, tsunami runup, and estuarine tidal dynamics. Closed-form analytical solutions exist only for highly idealized Riemann configurations, making rigorously verified numerical solvers essential. This work presents amerta, an open-source Python library that solves the one-dimensional frictionless Saint-Venant system on a uniform Cartesian grid using Monotone Upstream-centered Schemes for Conservation Laws (MUSCL) reconstruction with a minmod slope limiter, the Harten-Lax-van Leer-Contact (HLLC) approximate Riemann solver, and two-stage strong-stability-preserving Runge-Kutta (SSP-RK) time integration. Numba just-in-time (JIT) compilation accelerates the performance-critical kernels. The solver is verified end-to-end against the four canonical Riemann configurations: wet-bed dam break, dry-bed dam break, double rarefaction, and double shock. A six-component post-processing pipeline quantifies space-time topology, final-time error norms with empirical quantile decomposition, self-similarity collapse onto the analytical Riemann fan, integral-norm evolution, boundary-flux-corrected mass and energy diagnostics, and phase-plane analysis against analytical wave curves. The implementation conserves discrete mass to floating-point precision, satisfies discrete entropy admissibility identically, and reproduces all four analytical wave-curve geometries to within sub-centimetre accuracy in the depth-velocity phase plane. The complete source code, analytical-solution evaluators, post-processing scripts, and Network Common Data Format (NetCDF) archives are released under the MIT license.

  • 9 authors
·
May 28

FluxNet: Learning Capacity-Constrained Local Transport Operators for Conservative and Bounded PDE Surrogates

Autoregressive learning of time-stepping operators provides an effective approach to data-driven partial differential equation (PDE) simulation, yet for conservation laws, they face a fundamental challenge: learned updates may violate global conservation over long rollouts. For the important subclass of mass-conservation-type equations, the problem is compounded by inherent physical bounds (e.g., nonnegativity or concentrations in [0,1]) whose violation further destabilizes predictions. We introduce FluxNet, which learns cumulative transport amounts representing the total conserved quantity redistributed between each cell and a configurable neighborhood over the full surrogate interval. A conservative update guarantees exact discrete conservation by construction; modular capacity-constrained transport heads (L, U, and D) enforce lower bounds, upper bounds, or near-zero dual-bound violations through architectural design. Unlike flux-rate surrogates that require temporal integration and thus inherit CFL constraints, FluxNet involves no such integration; configurable transport neighborhoods enable large-timestep prediction at full spatial resolution. Ghost cells extend the framework to non-periodic boundaries. Experiments on four benchmarks (1D convection--diffusion, 2D shallow water, 1D traffic flow, 2D Cahn--Hilliard) demonstrate exact conservation, structural bound preservation, architecture modularity, and superior stability over flux-rate surrogates at large temporal strides. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Lan-zs/FluxNet.

  • 4 authors
·
May 25

Inunda: A GPU-Native, Agent-enabled, Differentiable Solver for High-Resolution Flood Inundation Modeling

Predicting where floodwater goes and how deep it gets, at high resolution and across large domains, remains computationally expensive with conventional hydraulic solvers, while purely data-driven surrogates are fast but lack physical guarantees and generalize poorly beyond their training events. We present Inunda, a GPU-native flood inundation model that solves the two-dimensional shallow water equations. Inunda uses a mass-conservative local-inertial scheme and runs multi-day events over millions of cells in minutes on a single GPU. Because every operator is autograd-compatible, the solver is differentiable by construction: model parameters can be estimated by gradient descent against gage observations through reverse-mode automatic differentiation of the full simulation. We demonstrate Inunda on three case studies. For a hindcast of Hurricane Harvey (2017) in Harris County, Texas, Inunda matches surveyed high-water marks to a mean absolute error of 0.67 m, competitive with or better than a suite of established flood models, and reaches a median gage water-level Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of +0.72, more than double the +0.31 of the operational National Water Model v3.0. For the July 2025 Central Texas flash flood, Inunda is driven by an 18-member 1-km convection-allowing precipitation ensemble to produce probabilistic flood forecasts whose skill improves systematically as lead time to the crest shortens. For a post-fire flash-flood application in the Rio Ruidoso burn scar, differentiable calibration recovers the saturated hydraulic conductivity as a spatially explicit field at the model's own resolution and traces its multi-year post-fire recovery. Inunda provides an open, end-to-end pipeline for real-event flood modeling that couples the accuracy of physics-based hydraulics with the calibration and coupling advantages of modern differentiable programming.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 9

Global River Forecasting with a Topology-Informed AI Foundation Model

River systems operate as inherently interconnected continuous networks, meaning river hydrodynamic simulation ought to be a systemic process. However, widespread hydrology data scarcity often restricts data-driven forecasting to isolated predictions. To achieve systemic simulation and reduce reliance on river observations, we present GraphRiverCast (GRC), a topology-informed AI foundation model designed to simulate multivariate river hydrodynamics in global river systems. GRC is capable of operating in a "ColdStart" mode, generating predictions without relying on historical river states for initialization. In 7-day global pseudo-hindcasts, GRC-ColdStart functions as a robust standalone simulator, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of approximately 0.82 without exhibiting the significant error accumulation typical of autoregressive paradigms. Ablation studies reveal that topological encoding serves as indispensable structural information in the absence of historical states, explicitly guiding hydraulic connectivity and network-scale mass redistribution to reconstruct flow dynamics. Furthermore, when adapted locally via a pre-training and fine-tuning strategy, GRC consistently outperforms physics-based and locally-trained AI baselines. Crucially, this superiority extends from gauged reaches to full river networks, underscoring the necessity of topology encoding and physics-based pre-training. Built on a physics-aligned neural operator architecture, GRC enables rapid and cross-scale adaptive simulation, establishing a collaborative paradigm bridging global hydrodynamic knowledge with local hydrological reality.

  • 14 authors
·
Feb 24

HydroGEM: A Self Supervised Zero Shot Hybrid TCN Transformer Foundation Model for Continental Scale Streamflow Quality Control

Real-time streamflow monitoring networks generate millions of observations annually, yet maintaining data quality across thousands of remote sensors remains labor-intensive. We introduce HydroGEM (Hydrological Generalizable Encoder for Monitoring), a foundation model for continental-scale streamflow quality control. HydroGEM uses two-stage training: self-supervised pretraining on 6.03 million sequences from 3,724 USGS stations learns hydrological representations, followed by fine-tuning with synthetic anomalies for detection and reconstruction. A hybrid TCN-Transformer architecture (14.2M parameters) captures local temporal patterns and long-range dependencies, while hierarchical normalization handles six orders of magnitude in discharge. On held-out synthetic tests comprising 799 stations with 18 expert-validated anomaly types, HydroGEM achieves F1 = 0.792 for detection and 68.7% reconstruction-error reduction, a 36.3% improvement over existing methods. Zero-shot transfer to 100 Environment and Climate Change Canada stations yields F1 = 0.586, exceeding all baselines and demonstrating cross-national generalization. The model maintains consistent detection across correction magnitudes and aligns with operational seasonal patterns. HydroGEM is designed for human-in-the-loop workflows - outputs are quality control suggestions requiring expert review, not autonomous corrections.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 16, 2025

RiverMamba: A State Space Model for Global River Discharge and Flood Forecasting

Recent deep learning approaches for river discharge forecasting have improved the accuracy and efficiency in flood forecasting, enabling more reliable early warning systems for risk management. Nevertheless, existing deep learning approaches in hydrology remain largely confined to local-scale applications and do not leverage the inherent spatial connections of bodies of water. Thus, there is a strong need for new deep learning methodologies that are capable of modeling spatio-temporal relations to improve river discharge and flood forecasting for scientific and operational applications. To address this, we present RiverMamba, a novel deep learning model that is pretrained with long-term reanalysis data and that can forecast global river discharge and floods on a 0.05^circ grid up to 7 days lead time, which is of high relevance in early warning. To achieve this, RiverMamba leverages efficient Mamba blocks that enable the model to capture spatio-temporal relations in very large river networks and enhance its forecast capability for longer lead times. The forecast blocks integrate ECMWF HRES meteorological forecasts, while accounting for their inaccuracies through spatio-temporal modeling. Our analysis demonstrates that RiverMamba provides reliable predictions of river discharge across various flood return periods, including extreme floods, and lead times, surpassing both AI- and physics-based models. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/RiverMamba.

UniBonn Univerity of Bonn
·
May 28, 2025

RipVIS: Rip Currents Video Instance Segmentation Benchmark for Beach Monitoring and Safety

Rip currents are strong, localized and narrow currents of water that flow outwards into the sea, causing numerous beach-related injuries and fatalities worldwide. Accurate identification of rip currents remains challenging due to their amorphous nature and the lack of annotated data, which often requires expert knowledge. To address these issues, we present RipVIS, a large-scale video instance segmentation benchmark explicitly designed for rip current segmentation. RipVIS is an order of magnitude larger than previous datasets, featuring 184 videos (212,328 frames), of which 150 videos (163,528 frames) are with rip currents, collected from various sources, including drones, mobile phones, and fixed beach cameras. Our dataset encompasses diverse visual contexts, such as wave-breaking patterns, sediment flows, and water color variations, across multiple global locations, including USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Romania, Sri Lanka, Australia and New Zealand. Most videos are annotated at 5 FPS to ensure accuracy in dynamic scenarios, supplemented by an additional 34 videos (48,800 frames) without rip currents. We conduct comprehensive experiments with Mask R-CNN, Cascade Mask R-CNN, SparseInst and YOLO11, fine-tuning these models for the task of rip current segmentation. Results are reported in terms of multiple metrics, with a particular focus on the F_2 score to prioritize recall and reduce false negatives. To enhance segmentation performance, we introduce a novel post-processing step based on Temporal Confidence Aggregation (TCA). RipVIS aims to set a new standard for rip current segmentation, contributing towards safer beach environments. We offer a benchmark website to share data, models, and results with the research community, encouraging ongoing collaboration and future contributions, at https://ripvis.ai.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 1, 2025

Drag reduction regimes in air lubrication

Air lubrication regimes were studied using simultaneous drag force measurements and multi-plane imaging to characterize the regimes and identify the governing mechanisms of drag reduction. A bubbly, transitional, and air layer regime are identified over a large range of freestream velocities (U_{infty}), air flow rates (Q_{air}), and Froude-depth numbers (Fr_d). For the lowest U_{infty}, drag reduction lags significantly behind the non-wetted area coverage at all cases and no simple correlation exists. Within the bubbly regime, a drag increase is found for low U_{infty} with large, slow-moving bubbles forming a single layer over the plate height. For higher velocities, bubbles become smaller and disperse vertically, while the drag starts decreasing. For higher Q_{air}, irrespective of U_{infty}, air patches start to form (transitional regime) and drag monotonically decreases, with the onset of the air layer regime at 60\% drag reduction. A new scaling of the associated critical Q_{air} is proposed, combining the air exit velocity, the liquid velocity close to the air layer and Fr_d. For a further increase of Q_{air} and low U_{infty}, a thicker and smoother air layer is formed with even lower drag; for higher U_{infty}, marginal differences are observed. The air layer morphology is significantly altered however, depending on Fr_d: for Fr_d>0.7, it is unbounded, extending beyond the current test section length, and for subcritical conditions (deep water regime, Fr_d<0.61) a closure is formed and the air layer transitions to a cavity of a specific length.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 18

SineNet: Learning Temporal Dynamics in Time-Dependent Partial Differential Equations

We consider using deep neural networks to solve time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs), where multi-scale processing is crucial for modeling complex, time-evolving dynamics. While the U-Net architecture with skip connections is commonly used by prior studies to enable multi-scale processing, our analysis shows that the need for features to evolve across layers results in temporally misaligned features in skip connections, which limits the model's performance. To address this limitation, we propose SineNet, consisting of multiple sequentially connected U-shaped network blocks, referred to as waves. In SineNet, high-resolution features are evolved progressively through multiple stages, thereby reducing the amount of misalignment within each stage. We furthermore analyze the role of skip connections in enabling both parallel and sequential processing of multi-scale information. Our method is rigorously tested on multiple PDE datasets, including the Navier-Stokes equations and shallow water equations, showcasing the advantages of our proposed approach over conventional U-Nets with a comparable parameter budget. We further demonstrate that increasing the number of waves in SineNet while maintaining the same number of parameters leads to a monotonically improved performance. The results highlight the effectiveness of SineNet and the potential of our approach in advancing the state-of-the-art in neural PDE solver design. Our code is available as part of AIRS (https://github.com/divelab/AIRS).

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 28, 2024

OpenSWI: A Massive-Scale Benchmark Dataset for Surface Wave Dispersion Curve Inversion

Surface wave dispersion curve inversion plays a critical role in both shallow resource exploration and deep geological studies, yet it remains hindered by sensitivity to initial models and low computational efficiency. Recently, data-driven deep learning methods, inspired by advances in computer vision, have shown promising potential to address these challenges. However, the lack of large-scale, diverse benchmark datasets remains a major obstacle to their development and evaluation. To bridge this gap, we present OpenSWI, a comprehensive benchmark dataset generated through the Surface Wave Inversion Dataset Preparation (SWIDP) pipeline. OpenSWI includes two synthetic datasets tailored to different research scales and scenarios, OpenSWI-shallow and OpenSWI-deep, and an AI-ready real-world dataset for generalization evaluation, OpenSWI-real. OpenSWI-shallow, derived from the 2-D OpenFWI geological model dataset, contains over 22 million 1-D velocity profiles paired with fundamental-mode phase and group velocity dispersion curves, spanning a wide range of shallow geological structures (e.g., flat layers, faults, folds, realistic stratigraphy). OpenSWI-deep, built from 14 global and regional 3-D geological models, comprises 1.26 million high-fidelity 1-D velocity-dispersion pairs for deep-Earth studies. OpenSWI-real, compiled from open-source projects, contains two sets of observed dispersion curves with corresponding reference models, serving as a benchmark for evaluating model generalization. To demonstrate utility, we trained models on OpenSWI-shallow and -deep and evaluated them on OpenSWI-real, demonstrating strong agreement between predictions and references, which confirms the diversity and representativeness of the dataset. To advance intelligent surface wave inversion, we release the SWIDP toolbox, OpenSWI datasets, and trained models for the research community.

  • 11 authors
·
Aug 14, 2025

Well-Posedness of a Coupled Brinkman--Biofilm--Nutrient System with Volume-Fraction Constraints

We investigate a coupled system of partial differential equations modeling the interaction between Brinkman flow, biofilm evolution, and nutrient transport in a porous medium. The model captures the mutual influence between the fluid velocity and the biofilm through drag and diffusion coefficients that depend on the local biofilm volume fraction. A hard constraint on the admissible range of the biofilm fraction is incorporated through the subdifferential of an indicator functional, which leads naturally to an evolution variational inequality formulation for the biofilm dynamics. Assuming standard coercivity, ellipticity, and growth conditions on the model coefficients and reaction terms, we prove the global-in-time existence of weak solutions. The analysis relies on a decomposition of the system into three interconnected subproblems: the Brinkman equation with a fixed biofilm profile, the constrained biofilm evolution treated through maximal monotone operator theory, and the nutrient equation viewed as a semilinear parabolic problem. These components are then coupled through a Leray--Schauder type fixed-point argument, with the passage to the limit justified by Aubin--Lions and Simon compactness results. We further establish the nonnegativity of the nutrient concentration under a natural quasi-positivity assumption on the reaction term. Finally, we provide conditional uniqueness results for weak solutions in two spatial dimensions under additional smallness assumptions.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 30