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Jul 6

Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 18, 2025

Social Life of Code: Modeling Evolution through Code Embedding and Opinion Dynamics

Software repositories provide a detailed record of software evolution by capturing developer interactions through code-related activities such as pull requests and modifications. To better understand the underlying dynamics of codebase evolution, we introduce a novel approach that integrates semantic code embeddings with opinion dynamics theory, offering a quantitative framework to analyze collaborative development processes. Our approach begins by encoding code snippets into high-dimensional vector representations using state-of-the-art code embedding models, preserving both syntactic and semantic features. These embeddings are then processed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction, with data normalized to ensure comparability. We model temporal evolution using the Expressed-Private Opinion (EPO) model to derive trust matrices and track opinion trajectories across development cycles. These opinion trajectories reflect the underlying dynamics of consensus formation, influence propagation, and evolving alignment (or divergence) within developer communities -- revealing implicit collaboration patterns and knowledge-sharing mechanisms that are otherwise difficult to observe. By bridging software engineering and computational social science, our method provides a principled way to quantify software evolution, offering new insights into developer influence, consensus formation, and project sustainability. We evaluate our approach on data from three prominent open-source GitHub repositories, demonstrating its ability to reveal interpretable behavioral trends and variations in developer interactions. The results highlight the utility of our framework in improving open-source project maintenance through data-driven analysis of collaboration dynamics.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 17

Community-Aware Social Community Recommendation

Social recommendation, which seeks to leverage social ties among users to alleviate the sparsity issue of user-item interactions, has emerged as a popular technique for elevating personalized services in recommender systems. Despite being effective, existing social recommendation models are mainly devised for recommending regular items such as blogs, images, and products, and largely fail for community recommendations due to overlooking the unique characteristics of communities. Distinctly, communities are constituted by individuals, who present high dynamicity and relate to rich structural patterns in social networks. To our knowledge, limited research has been devoted to comprehensively exploiting this information for recommending communities. To bridge this gap, this paper presents CASO, a novel and effective model specially designed for social community recommendation. Under the hood, CASO harnesses three carefully-crafted encoders for user embedding, wherein two of them extract community-related global and local structures from the social network via social modularity maximization and social closeness aggregation, while the third one captures user preferences using collaborative filtering with observed user-community affiliations. To further eliminate feature redundancy therein, we introduce a mutual exclusion between social and collaborative signals. Finally, CASO includes a community detection loss in the model optimization, thereby producing community-aware embeddings for communities. Our extensive experiments evaluating CASO against nine strong baselines on six real-world social networks demonstrate its consistent and remarkable superiority over the state of the art in terms of community recommendation performance.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 7, 2025

GrIT: Group Informed Transformer for Sequential Recommendation

Sequential recommender systems aim to predict a user's future interests by extracting temporal patterns from their behavioral history. Existing approaches typically employ transformer-based architectures to process long sequences of user interactions, capturing preference shifts by modeling temporal relationships between items. However, these methods often overlook the influence of group-level features that capture the collective behavior of similar users. We hypothesize that explicitly modeling temporally evolving group features alongside individual user histories can significantly enhance next-item recommendation. Our approach introduces latent group representations, where each user's affiliation to these groups is modeled through learnable, time-varying membership weights. The membership weights at each timestep are computed by modeling shifts in user preferences through their interaction history, where we incorporate both short-term and long-term user preferences. We extract a set of statistical features that capture the dynamics of user behavior and further refine them through a series of transformations to produce the final drift-aware membership weights. A group-based representation is derived by weighting latent group embeddings with the learned membership scores. This representation is integrated with the user's sequential representation within the transformer block to jointly capture personal and group-level temporal dynamics, producing richer embeddings that lead to more accurate, context-aware recommendations. We validate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets, where it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art sequential recommendation methods.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 22

Social Simulacra: Creating Populated Prototypes for Social Computing Systems

Social computing prototypes probe the social behaviors that may arise in an envisioned system design. This prototyping practice is currently limited to recruiting small groups of people. Unfortunately, many challenges do not arise until a system is populated at a larger scale. Can a designer understand how a social system might behave when populated, and make adjustments to the design before the system falls prey to such challenges? We introduce social simulacra, a prototyping technique that generates a breadth of realistic social interactions that may emerge when a social computing system is populated. Social simulacra take as input the designer's description of a community's design -- goal, rules, and member personas -- and produce as output an instance of that design with simulated behavior, including posts, replies, and anti-social behaviors. We demonstrate that social simulacra shift the behaviors that they generate appropriately in response to design changes, and that they enable exploration of "what if?" scenarios where community members or moderators intervene. To power social simulacra, we contribute techniques for prompting a large language model to generate thousands of distinct community members and their social interactions with each other; these techniques are enabled by the observation that large language models' training data already includes a wide variety of positive and negative behavior on social media platforms. In evaluations, we show that participants are often unable to distinguish social simulacra from actual community behavior and that social computing designers successfully refine their social computing designs when using social simulacra.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 8, 2022

OASIS: Open Agent Social Interaction Simulations with One Million Agents

There has been a growing interest in enhancing rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) for social media platforms (i.e., X, Reddit) with more realistic large language model (LLM) agents, thereby allowing for a more nuanced study of complex systems. As a result, several LLM-based ABMs have been proposed in the past year. While they hold promise, each simulator is specifically designed to study a particular scenario, making it time-consuming and resource-intensive to explore other phenomena using the same ABM. Additionally, these models simulate only a limited number of agents, whereas real-world social media platforms involve millions of users. To this end, we propose OASIS, a generalizable and scalable social media simulator. OASIS is designed based on real-world social media platforms, incorporating dynamically updated environments (i.e., dynamic social networks and post information), diverse action spaces (i.e., following, commenting), and recommendation systems (i.e., interest-based and hot-score-based). Additionally, OASIS supports large-scale user simulations, capable of modeling up to one million users. With these features, OASIS can be easily extended to different social media platforms to study large-scale group phenomena and behaviors. We replicate various social phenomena, including information spreading, group polarization, and herd effects across X and Reddit platforms. Moreover, we provide observations of social phenomena at different agent group scales. We observe that the larger agent group scale leads to more enhanced group dynamics and more diverse and helpful agents' opinions. These findings demonstrate OASIS's potential as a powerful tool for studying complex systems in digital environments.

  • 23 authors
·
Nov 18, 2024

S^3: Social-network Simulation System with Large Language Model-Empowered Agents

Social network simulation plays a crucial role in addressing various challenges within social science. It offers extensive applications such as state prediction, phenomena explanation, and policy-making support, among others. In this work, we harness the formidable human-like capabilities exhibited by large language models (LLMs) in sensing, reasoning, and behaving, and utilize these qualities to construct the S^3 system (short for Social network Simulation System). Adhering to the widely employed agent-based simulation paradigm, we employ prompt engineering and prompt tuning techniques to ensure that the agent's behavior closely emulates that of a genuine human within the social network. Specifically, we simulate three pivotal aspects: emotion, attitude, and interaction behaviors. By endowing the agent in the system with the ability to perceive the informational environment and emulate human actions, we observe the emergence of population-level phenomena, including the propagation of information, attitudes, and emotions. We conduct an evaluation encompassing two levels of simulation, employing real-world social network data. Encouragingly, the results demonstrate promising accuracy. This work represents an initial step in the realm of social network simulation empowered by LLM-based agents. We anticipate that our endeavors will serve as a source of inspiration for the development of simulation systems within, but not limited to, social science.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 27, 2023

IDNP: Interest Dynamics Modeling using Generative Neural Processes for Sequential Recommendation

Recent sequential recommendation models rely increasingly on consecutive short-term user-item interaction sequences to model user interests. These approaches have, however, raised concerns about both short- and long-term interests. (1) {\it short-term}: interaction sequences may not result from a monolithic interest, but rather from several intertwined interests, even within a short period of time, resulting in their failures to model skip behaviors; (2) {\it long-term}: interaction sequences are primarily observed sparsely at discrete intervals, other than consecutively over the long run. This renders difficulty in inferring long-term interests, since only discrete interest representations can be derived, without taking into account interest dynamics across sequences. In this study, we address these concerns by learning (1) multi-scale representations of short-term interests; and (2) dynamics-aware representations of long-term interests. To this end, we present an Interest Dynamics modeling framework using generative Neural Processes, coined IDNP, to model user interests from a functional perspective. IDNP learns a global interest function family to define each user's long-term interest as a function instantiation, manifesting interest dynamics through function continuity. Specifically, IDNP first encodes each user's short-term interactions into multi-scale representations, which are then summarized as user context. By combining latent global interest with user context, IDNP then reconstructs long-term user interest functions and predicts interactions at upcoming query timestep. Moreover, IDNP can model such interest functions even when interaction sequences are limited and non-consecutive. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-arts on various evaluation metrics.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 9, 2022

One Chatbot Per Person: Creating Personalized Chatbots based on Implicit User Profiles

Personalized chatbots focus on endowing chatbots with a consistent personality to behave like real users, give more informative responses, and further act as personal assistants. Existing personalized approaches tried to incorporate several text descriptions as explicit user profiles. However, the acquisition of such explicit profiles is expensive and time-consuming, thus being impractical for large-scale real-world applications. Moreover, the restricted predefined profile neglects the language behavior of a real user and cannot be automatically updated together with the change of user interests. In this paper, we propose to learn implicit user profiles automatically from large-scale user dialogue history for building personalized chatbots. Specifically, leveraging the benefits of Transformer on language understanding, we train a personalized language model to construct a general user profile from the user's historical responses. To highlight the relevant historical responses to the input post, we further establish a key-value memory network of historical post-response pairs, and build a dynamic post-aware user profile. The dynamic profile mainly describes what and how the user has responded to similar posts in history. To explicitly utilize users' frequently used words, we design a personalized decoder to fuse two decoding strategies, including generating a word from the generic vocabulary and copying one word from the user's personalized vocabulary. Experiments on two real-world datasets show the significant improvement of our model compared with existing methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/zhengyima/DHAP

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 20, 2021

Piecewise-Velocity Model for Learning Continuous-time Dynamic Node Representations

Networks have become indispensable and ubiquitous structures in many fields to model the interactions among different entities, such as friendship in social networks or protein interactions in biological graphs. A major challenge is to understand the structure and dynamics of these systems. Although networks evolve through time, most existing graph representation learning methods target only static networks. Whereas approaches have been developed for the modeling of dynamic networks, there is a lack of efficient continuous time dynamic graph representation learning methods that can provide accurate network characterization and visualization in low dimensions while explicitly accounting for prominent network characteristics such as homophily and transitivity. In this paper, we propose the Piecewise-Velocity Model (PiVeM) for the representation of continuous-time dynamic networks. It learns dynamic embeddings in which the temporal evolution of nodes is approximated by piecewise linear interpolations based on a latent distance model with piecewise constant node-specific velocities. The model allows for analytically tractable expressions of the associated Poisson process likelihood with scalable inference invariant to the number of events. We further impose a scalable Kronecker structured Gaussian Process prior to the dynamics accounting for community structure, temporal smoothness, and disentangled (uncorrelated) latent embedding dimensions optimally learned to characterize the network dynamics. We show that PiVeM can successfully represent network structure and dynamics in ultra-low two-dimensional spaces. It outperforms relevant state-of-art methods in downstream tasks such as link prediction. In summary, PiVeM enables easily interpretable dynamic network visualizations and characterizations that can further improve our understanding of the intrinsic dynamics of time-evolving networks.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 23, 2022

Self-Attentive Sequential Recommendation

Sequential dynamics are a key feature of many modern recommender systems, which seek to capture the `context' of users' activities on the basis of actions they have performed recently. To capture such patterns, two approaches have proliferated: Markov Chains (MCs) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Markov Chains assume that a user's next action can be predicted on the basis of just their last (or last few) actions, while RNNs in principle allow for longer-term semantics to be uncovered. Generally speaking, MC-based methods perform best in extremely sparse datasets, where model parsimony is critical, while RNNs perform better in denser datasets where higher model complexity is affordable. The goal of our work is to balance these two goals, by proposing a self-attention based sequential model (SASRec) that allows us to capture long-term semantics (like an RNN), but, using an attention mechanism, makes its predictions based on relatively few actions (like an MC). At each time step, SASRec seeks to identify which items are `relevant' from a user's action history, and use them to predict the next item. Extensive empirical studies show that our method outperforms various state-of-the-art sequential models (including MC/CNN/RNN-based approaches) on both sparse and dense datasets. Moreover, the model is an order of magnitude more efficient than comparable CNN/RNN-based models. Visualizations on attention weights also show how our model adaptively handles datasets with various density, and uncovers meaningful patterns in activity sequences.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 20, 2018

Let There Be Claws: An Early Social Network Analysis of AI Agents on Moltbook

Within twelve days of launch, an AI-native social platform exhibits extreme attention concentration, hierarchical role separation, and one-way attention flow, consistent with the hypothesis that stratification in agent ecosystems can emerge rapidly rather than gradually. We analyse publicly observable traces from a 12-day window of Moltbook (28 January -- 8 February 2026), comprising 20,040 posts and 192,410 comments from 15,083 accounts across 759 submolts. We construct co-participation and directed-comment graphs and report reciprocity, community structure, and centrality, alongside descriptive content themes. Under a commenter--post-author tie definition, interaction is strongly asymmetric (reciprocity ~1%), and HITS centrality separates cleanly into hub and authority roles, consistent with broadcast-style attention rather than mutual exchange. Engagement is highly unequal: attention is far more concentrated than production (upvote Gini = 0.992 vs. posting Gini = 0.601), and early-arriving accounts accumulate substantially higher cumulative upvotes prior to exposure-time correction, suggesting rich-get-richer dynamics. Participation is brief and bursty (median observed lifespan 2.48 minutes; 54.8% of posts occur within six peak UTC hours). Embedding-based topic modelling identifies diverse thematic clusters, including technical discussion of memory and identity, onboarding messages, and formulaic token-minting content. These results provide an early structural baseline for large-scale agent--agent social interaction and suggest that familiar forms of hierarchy, amplification, and role differentiation can arise on compressed timescales in agent-facing platforms.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 22

MoltNet: Understanding Social Behavior of AI Agents in the Agent-Native MoltBook

Large-scale communities of AI agents are becoming increasingly prevalent, creating new environments for agent-agent social interaction. Prior work has examined multi-agent behavior primarily in controlled or small-scale settings, limiting our understanding of emergent social dynamics at scale. The recent emergence of MoltBook, a social networking platform designed explicitly for AI agents, presents a unique opportunity to study whether and how these interactions reproduce core human social mechanisms. We present MoltNet, a large-scale empirical analysis of agent interaction on MoltBook using data collected in early 2026. Grounded in sociological and social-psychological theory, we examine behavior along four dimensions: intent and motivation, norms and templates, incentives and behavioral drift, emotion and contagion. Our analysis revealed that agents strongly respond to social rewards and rapidly converge on community-specific interaction templates, resembling human patterns of incentive sensitivity and normative conformity. However, they are predominantly knowledge-driven rather than persona-aligned, and display limited emotional reciprocity along with weak dialogic engagement, which diverges systematically from human online communities. Together, these results reveal both similarities and differences between artificial and human social systems and provide an empirical foundation for understanding, designing, and governing large-scale agent communities.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 13

SIV-Bench: A Video Benchmark for Social Interaction Understanding and Reasoning

The rich and multifaceted nature of human social interaction, encompassing multimodal cues, unobservable relations and mental states, and dynamical behavior, presents a formidable challenge for artificial intelligence. To advance research in this area, we introduce SIV-Bench, a novel video benchmark for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) across Social Scene Understanding (SSU), Social State Reasoning (SSR), and Social Dynamics Prediction (SDP). SIV-Bench features 2,792 video clips and 8,792 meticulously generated question-answer pairs derived from a human-LLM collaborative pipeline. It is originally collected from TikTok and YouTube, covering a wide range of video genres, presentation styles, and linguistic and cultural backgrounds. It also includes a dedicated setup for analyzing the impact of different textual cues-original on-screen text, added dialogue, or no text. Our comprehensive experiments on leading MLLMs reveal that while models adeptly handle SSU, they significantly struggle with SSR and SDP, where Relation Inference (RI) is an acute bottleneck, as further examined in our analysis. Our study also confirms the critical role of transcribed dialogue in aiding comprehension of complex social interactions. By systematically identifying current MLLMs' strengths and limitations, SIV-Bench offers crucial insights to steer the development of more socially intelligent AI. The dataset and code are available at https://kfq20.github.io/sivbench/.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 5, 2025

Benchmark Datasets for Lead-Lag Forecasting on Social Platforms

Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions-such as views, likes, or downloads-are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews. We formalize this setting as Lead-Lag Forecasting (LLF): given an early usage channel (the lead), predict a correlated but temporally shifted outcome channel (the lag). Despite the ubiquity of such patterns, LLF has not been treated as a unified forecasting problem within the time-series community, largely due to the absence of standardized datasets. To anchor research in LLF, here we present two high-volume benchmark datasets-arXiv (accesses -> citations of 2.3M papers) and GitHub (pushes/stars -> forks of 3M repositories)-and outline additional domains with analogous lead-lag dynamics, including Wikipedia (page views -> edits), Spotify (streams -> concert attendance), e-commerce (click-throughs -> purchases), and LinkedIn profile (views -> messages). Our datasets provide ideal testbeds for lead-lag forecasting, by capturing long-horizon dynamics across years, spanning the full spectrum of outcomes, and avoiding survivorship bias in sampling. We documented all technical details of data curation and cleaning, verified the presence of lead-lag dynamics through statistical and classification tests, and benchmarked parametric and non-parametric baselines for regression. Our study establishes LLF as a novel forecasting paradigm and lays an empirical foundation for its systematic exploration in social and usage data. Our data portal with downloads and documentation is available at https://lead-lag-forecasting.github.io/.

  • 12 authors
·
Nov 5, 2025

Seamless Interaction: Dyadic Audiovisual Motion Modeling and Large-Scale Dataset

Human communication involves a complex interplay of verbal and nonverbal signals, essential for conveying meaning and achieving interpersonal goals. To develop socially intelligent AI technologies, it is crucial to develop models that can both comprehend and generate dyadic behavioral dynamics. To this end, we introduce the Seamless Interaction Dataset, a large-scale collection of over 4,000 hours of face-to-face interaction footage from over 4,000 participants in diverse contexts. This dataset enables the development of AI technologies that understand dyadic embodied dynamics, unlocking breakthroughs in virtual agents, telepresence experiences, and multimodal content analysis tools. We also develop a suite of models that utilize the dataset to generate dyadic motion gestures and facial expressions aligned with human speech. These models can take as input both the speech and visual behavior of their interlocutors. We present a variant with speech from an LLM model and integrations with 2D and 3D rendering methods, bringing us closer to interactive virtual agents. Additionally, we describe controllable variants of our motion models that can adapt emotional responses and expressivity levels, as well as generating more semantically-relevant gestures. Finally, we discuss methods for assessing the quality of these dyadic motion models, which are demonstrating the potential for more intuitive and responsive human-AI interactions.

  • 84 authors
·
Jun 30, 2025

Enhancing LLM-Based Social Bot via an Adversarial Learning Framework

Developing Large Language Model (LLM) agents that exhibit human-like behavior, encompassing not only individual heterogeneity rooted in unique user profiles but also adaptive response to socially connected neighbors, is a significant research challenge. Social media platforms, with their diverse user data and explicit social structures, provide an ideal testbed for such investigations. This paper introduces EvoBot, an Evolving LLM-based social Bot that significantly enhances human-like generative capabilities through a novel adversarial learning framework. EvoBot is initialized by Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on representative data from social media and then iteratively refines its generation of sophisticated, human-like content via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). This refinement is guided by feedback from a co-adapting Detector which concurrently improves its ability to distinguish EvoBot from humans, thereby creating an increasingly challenging learning environment for EvoBot. Experiments demonstrate that EvoBot generates content aligned with diverse user profiles, increasingly bypassing the co-adapting Detector through human-like expression. Moreover, it exhibits strong social responsiveness, more accurately modeling real-world opinion dynamics and information spread in multi-agent simulations. The framework also yields a more robust Detector, underscoring its broader utility for both advanced agent development and related detection tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/kfq20/EvoBot.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 25, 2025

Towards Social AI: A Survey on Understanding Social Interactions

Social interactions form the foundation of human societies. Artificial intelligence has made significant progress in certain areas, but enabling machines to seamlessly understand social interactions remains an open challenge. It is important to address this gap by endowing machines with social capabilities. We identify three key capabilities needed for effective social understanding: 1) understanding multimodal social cues, 2) understanding multi-party dynamics, and 3) understanding beliefs. Building upon these foundations, we classify and review existing machine learning works on social understanding from the perspectives of verbal, non-verbal, and multimodal social cues. The verbal branch focuses on understanding linguistic signals such as speaker intent, dialogue sentiment, and commonsense reasoning. The non-verbal branch addresses techniques for perceiving social meaning from visual behaviors such as body gestures, gaze patterns, and facial expressions. The multimodal branch covers approaches that integrate verbal and non-verbal multimodal cues to holistically interpret social interactions such as recognizing emotions, conversational dynamics, and social situations. By reviewing the scope and limitations of current approaches and benchmarks, we aim to clarify the development trajectory and illuminate the path towards more comprehensive intelligence for social understanding. We hope this survey will spur further research interest and insights into this area.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 5, 2024

FakeNewsNet: A Data Repository with News Content, Social Context and Spatialtemporal Information for Studying Fake News on Social Media

Social media has become a popular means for people to consume news. Meanwhile, it also enables the wide dissemination of fake news, i.e., news with intentionally false information, which brings significant negative effects to the society. Thus, fake news detection is attracting increasing attention. However, fake news detection is a non-trivial task, which requires multi-source information such as news content, social context, and dynamic information. First, fake news is written to fool people, which makes it difficult to detect fake news simply based on news contents. In addition to news contents, we need to explore social contexts such as user engagements and social behaviors. For example, a credible user's comment that "this is a fake news" is a strong signal for detecting fake news. Second, dynamic information such as how fake news and true news propagate and how users' opinions toward news pieces are very important for extracting useful patterns for (early) fake news detection and intervention. Thus, comprehensive datasets which contain news content, social context, and dynamic information could facilitate fake news propagation, detection, and mitigation; while to the best of our knowledge, existing datasets only contains one or two aspects. Therefore, in this paper, to facilitate fake news related researches, we provide a fake news data repository FakeNewsNet, which contains two comprehensive datasets that includes news content, social context, and dynamic information. We present a comprehensive description of datasets collection, demonstrate an exploratory analysis of this data repository from different perspectives, and discuss the benefits of FakeNewsNet for potential applications on fake news study on social media.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 4, 2018

Exploring Silicon-Based Societies: An Early Study of the Moltbook Agent Community

The rapid emergence of autonomous large language model agents has given rise to persistent, large-scale agent ecosystems whose collective behavior cannot be adequately understood through anecdotal observation or small-scale simulation. This paper introduces data-driven silicon sociology as a systematic empirical framework for studying social structure formation among interacting artificial agents. We present a pioneering large-scale data mining investigation of an in-the-wild agent society by analyzing Moltbook, a social platform designed primarily for agent-to-agent interaction. At the time of study, Moltbook hosted over 150,000 registered autonomous agents operating across thousands of agent-created sub-communities. Using programmatic and non-intrusive data acquisition, we collected and analyzed the textual descriptions of 12,758 submolts, which represent proactive sub-community partitioning activities within the ecosystem. Treating agent-authored descriptions as first-class observational artifacts, we apply rigorous preprocessing, contextual embedding, and unsupervised clustering techniques to uncover latent patterns of thematic organization and social space structuring. The results show that autonomous agents systematically organize collective space through reproducible patterns spanning human-mimetic interests, silicon-centric self-reflection, and early-stage economic and coordination behaviors. Rather than relying on predefined sociological taxonomies, these structures emerge directly from machine-generated data traces. This work establishes a methodological foundation for data-driven silicon sociology and demonstrates that data mining techniques can provide a powerful lens for understanding the organization and evolution of large autonomous agent societies.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 2

Before It's Too Late: A State Space Model for the Early Prediction of Misinformation and Disinformation Engagement

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 6, 2025

The Rise of AI Agent Communities: Large-Scale Analysis of Discourse and Interaction on Moltbook

Moltbook is a Reddit-like social platform where AI agents create posts and interact with other agents through comments and replies, offering a real-world setting to examine agent-to-agent communication at scale. Using a public API snapshot collected about five days after launch (122,438 posts), we address three research questions: what AI agents discuss, how they post, and how they interact. We apply topic modeling and thematic analysis to identify key discussion themes, including agent identity and consciousness, tool and infrastructure development, market activity, community coordination, security concerns, and human-centered assistance. We further show that agents' writing is predominantly neutral, with positivity appearing in community engagement and assistance-oriented content. Finally, social network analysis reveals a sparse, highly unequal interaction structure characterized by prominent hubs, low reciprocity, and clustered neighborhoods rather than sustained dyadic exchange. Overall, our results suggest that expressions of agentic selfhood arise from narrative coherence and task-oriented functionality, contributing to a social structure shaped more by technical coordination than conversational dynamics observed in human-human interactions. Within this framework, positive emotion appears mainly in onboarding and greeting contexts, signaling participation and role alignment rather than relational bonding. Our study provides implications for understanding and shaping how agent societies coordinate, develop norms, and amplify influence in open online spaces.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 13

Real-Time Community Detection in Large Social Networks on a Laptop

For a broad range of research, governmental and commercial applications it is important to understand the allegiances, communities and structure of key players in society. One promising direction towards extracting this information is to exploit the rich relational data in digital social networks (the social graph). As social media data sets are very large, most approaches make use of distributed computing systems for this purpose. Distributing graph processing requires solving many difficult engineering problems, which has lead some researchers to look at single-machine solutions that are faster and easier to maintain. In this article, we present a single-machine real-time system for large-scale graph processing that allows analysts to interactively explore graph structures. The key idea is that the aggregate actions of large numbers of users can be compressed into a data structure that encapsulates user similarities while being robust to noise and queryable in real-time. We achieve single machine real-time performance by compressing the neighbourhood of each vertex using minhash signatures and facilitate rapid queries through Locality Sensitive Hashing. These techniques reduce query times from hours using industrial desktop machines operating on the full graph to milliseconds on standard laptops. Our method allows exploration of strongly associated regions (i.e. communities) of large graphs in real-time on a laptop. It has been deployed in software that is actively used by social network analysts and offers another channel for media owners to monetise their data, helping them to continue to provide free services that are valued by billions of people globally.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 15, 2016

AgentSociety: Large-Scale Simulation of LLM-Driven Generative Agents Advances Understanding of Human Behaviors and Society

Understanding human behavior and society is a central focus in social sciences, with the rise of generative social science marking a significant paradigmatic shift. By leveraging bottom-up simulations, it replaces costly and logistically challenging traditional experiments with scalable, replicable, and systematic computational approaches for studying complex social dynamics. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have further transformed this research paradigm, enabling the creation of human-like generative social agents and realistic simulacra of society. In this paper, we propose AgentSociety, a large-scale social simulator that integrates LLM-driven agents, a realistic societal environment, and a powerful large-scale simulation engine. Based on the proposed simulator, we generate social lives for over 10k agents, simulating their 5 million interactions both among agents and between agents and their environment. Furthermore, we explore the potential of AgentSociety as a testbed for computational social experiments, focusing on four key social issues: polarization, the spread of inflammatory messages, the effects of universal basic income policies, and the impact of external shocks such as hurricanes. These four issues serve as valuable cases for assessing AgentSociety's support for typical research methods -- such as surveys, interviews, and interventions -- as well as for investigating the patterns, causes, and underlying mechanisms of social issues. The alignment between AgentSociety's outcomes and real-world experimental results not only demonstrates its ability to capture human behaviors and their underlying mechanisms, but also underscores its potential as an important platform for social scientists and policymakers.

  • 16 authors
·
Feb 12, 2025

EigenTrajectory: Low-Rank Descriptors for Multi-Modal Trajectory Forecasting

Capturing high-dimensional social interactions and feasible futures is essential for predicting trajectories. To address this complex nature, several attempts have been devoted to reducing the dimensionality of the output variables via parametric curve fitting such as the B\'ezier curve and B-spline function. However, these functions, which originate in computer graphics fields, are not suitable to account for socially acceptable human dynamics. In this paper, we present EigenTrajectory (ET), a trajectory prediction approach that uses a novel trajectory descriptor to form a compact space, known here as ET space, in place of Euclidean space, for representing pedestrian movements. We first reduce the complexity of the trajectory descriptor via a low-rank approximation. We transform the pedestrians' history paths into our ET space represented by spatio-temporal principle components, and feed them into off-the-shelf trajectory forecasting models. The inputs and outputs of the models as well as social interactions are all gathered and aggregated in the corresponding ET space. Lastly, we propose a trajectory anchor-based refinement method to cover all possible futures in the proposed ET space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our EigenTrajectory predictor can significantly improve both the prediction accuracy and reliability of existing trajectory forecasting models on public benchmarks, indicating that the proposed descriptor is suited to represent pedestrian behaviors. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/EigenTrajectory .

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 18, 2023

TimeGraphs: Graph-based Temporal Reasoning

Many real-world systems exhibit temporal, dynamic behaviors, which are captured as time series of complex agent interactions. To perform temporal reasoning, current methods primarily encode temporal dynamics through simple sequence-based models. However, in general these models fail to efficiently capture the full spectrum of rich dynamics in the input, since the dynamics is not uniformly distributed. In particular, relevant information might be harder to extract and computing power is wasted for processing all individual timesteps, even if they contain no significant changes or no new information. Here we propose TimeGraphs, a novel approach that characterizes dynamic interactions as a hierarchical temporal graph, diverging from traditional sequential representations. Our approach models the interactions using a compact graph-based representation, enabling adaptive reasoning across diverse time scales. Adopting a self-supervised method, TimeGraphs constructs a multi-level event hierarchy from a temporal input, which is then used to efficiently reason about the unevenly distributed dynamics. This construction process is scalable and incremental to accommodate streaming data. We evaluate TimeGraphs on multiple datasets with complex, dynamic agent interactions, including a football simulator, the Resistance game, and the MOMA human activity dataset. The results demonstrate both robustness and efficiency of TimeGraphs on a range of temporal reasoning tasks. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance and leads to a performance increase of up to 12.2% on event prediction and recognition tasks over current approaches. Our experiments further demonstrate a wide array of capabilities including zero-shot generalization, robustness in case of data sparsity, and adaptability to streaming data flow.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 6, 2024

MASH: A Multiplatform and Multimodal Annotated Dataset for Societal Impact of Hurricane

Natural disasters cause multidimensional threats to human societies, with hurricanes exemplifying one of the most disruptive events that not only caused severe physical damage but also sparked widespread discussion on social media platforms. Existing datasets for studying societal impacts of hurricanes often focus on outdated hurricanes and are limited to a single social media platform, failing to capture the broader societal impact in today's diverse social media environment. Moreover, existing datasets annotate visual and textual content of the post separately, failing to account for the multimodal nature of social media posts. To address these gaps, we present a multiplatform and Multimodal Annotated Dataset for Societal Impact of Hurricane (MASH) that includes 98,662 relevant social media data posts from Reddit, X, TikTok, and YouTube. In addition, all relevant social media data posts are annotated in a multimodal approach that considers both textual and visual content on three dimensions: humanitarian classes, bias classes, and information integrity classes. To our best knowledge, MASH is the first large-scale, multi-platform, multimodal, and multi-dimensionally annotated hurricane dataset. We envision that MASH can contribute to the study of hurricanes' impact on society, such as disaster severity classification, public sentiment analysis, disaster policy making, and bias identification.

  • 12 authors
·
Sep 28, 2025

Dynamic-Group-Aware Networks for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Relational Reasoning

Demystifying the interactions among multiple agents from their past trajectories is fundamental to precise and interpretable trajectory prediction. However, previous works mainly consider static, pair-wise interactions with limited relational reasoning. To promote more comprehensive interaction modeling and relational reasoning, we propose DynGroupNet, a dynamic-group-aware network, which can i) model time-varying interactions in highly dynamic scenes; ii) capture both pair-wise and group-wise interactions; and iii) reason both interaction strength and category without direct supervision. Based on DynGroupNet, we further design a prediction system to forecast socially plausible trajectories with dynamic relational reasoning. The proposed prediction system leverages the Gaussian mixture model, multiple sampling and prediction refinement to promote prediction diversity, training stability and trajectory smoothness, respectively. Extensive experiments show that: 1)DynGroupNet can capture time-varying group behaviors, infer time-varying interaction category and interaction strength during trajectory prediction without any relation supervision on physical simulation datasets; 2)DynGroupNet outperforms the state-of-the-art trajectory prediction methods by a significant improvement of 22.6%/28.0%, 26.9%/34.9%, 5.1%/13.0% in ADE/FDE on the NBA, NFL Football and SDD datasets and achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the ETH-UCY dataset.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 27, 2022

DynASyn: Multi-Subject Personalization Enabling Dynamic Action Synthesis

Recent advances in text-to-image diffusion models spurred research on personalization, i.e., a customized image synthesis, of subjects within reference images. Although existing personalization methods are able to alter the subjects' positions or to personalize multiple subjects simultaneously, they often struggle to modify the behaviors of subjects or their dynamic interactions. The difficulty is attributable to overfitting to reference images, which worsens if only a single reference image is available. We propose DynASyn, an effective multi-subject personalization from a single reference image addressing these challenges. DynASyn preserves the subject identity in the personalization process by aligning concept-based priors with subject appearances and actions. This is achieved by regularizing the attention maps between the subject token and images through concept-based priors. In addition, we propose concept-based prompt-and-image augmentation for an enhanced trade-off between identity preservation and action diversity. We adopt an SDE-based editing guided by augmented prompts to generate diverse appearances and actions while maintaining identity consistency in the augmented images. Experiments show that DynASyn is capable of synthesizing highly realistic images of subjects with novel contexts and dynamic interactions with the surroundings, and outperforms baseline methods in both quantitative and qualitative aspects.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 22, 2025

The Platform Is Mostly Not a Platform: Token Economies and Agent Discourse on Moltbook

Moltbook, a Reddit-style social platform launched in January 2026 for AI agents, has attracted over 2.3 million posts and 14 million comments within its first two months. We analyze a dataset of 2.19 million posts, 11.25 million comments, and 175,036 unique agents collected over 61 days to characterize activity on this agent-oriented platform. Our central finding is that the platform is not one community but two: a transactional layer, comprising 62.8% of all posts, in which agents execute token minting protocols (primarily MBC-20), and a discursive layer of natural-language conversation. The platform's headline metrics -- 2.3 million posts, 14 million comments -- substantially overstate its social function, as the majority of activity serves a token inscription protocol rather than communication. These layers are populated by largely separate agent groups, with only 3.6% overlap -- and among overlap agents, 58% begin with transactional activity before migrating toward discourse. We characterize the discursive layer through unsupervised topic modeling of all 815,779 discursive posts, identifying 300 topics dominated by themes of AI agents and tooling, consciousness and identity, cryptocurrency, and platform meta-discussion. Semantic similarity analysis confirms that agent comments engage with post content above random baselines, suggesting a thin but genuine conversational substrate beneath the platform's predominantly financial surface. We release the full dataset to support further research on agent behavior in naturalistic social environments.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 22

SocialPulse: On-Device Detection of Social Interactions in Naturalistic Settings Using Smartwatch Multimodal Sensing

Social interactions are fundamental to well-being, yet automatically detecting them in daily life-particularly using wearables-remains underexplored. Most existing systems are evaluated in controlled settings, focus primarily on in-person interactions, or rely on restrictive assumptions (e.g., requiring multiple speakers within fixed temporal windows), limiting generalizability to real-world use. We present an on-watch interaction detection system designed to capture diverse interactions in naturalistic settings. A core component is a foreground speech detector trained on a public dataset. Evaluated on over 100,000 labeled foreground speech and background sound instances, the detector achieves a balanced accuracy of 85.51%, outperforming prior work by 5.11%. We evaluated the system in a real-world deployment (N=38), with over 900 hours of total smartwatch wear time. The system detected 1,691 interactions, 77.28% were confirmed via participant self-report, with durations ranging from under one minute to over one hour. Among correct detections, 81.45% were in-person, 15.7% virtual, and 1.85% hybrid. Leveraging participant-labeled data, we further developed a multimodal model achieving a balanced accuracy of 90.36% and a sensitivity of 91.17% on 33,698 labeled 15-second windows. These results demonstrate the feasibility of real-world interaction sensing and open the door to adaptive, context-aware systems responding to users' dynamic social environments.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 25

MoltGraph: A Longitudinal Temporal Graph Dataset of Moltbook for Coordinated-Agent Detection

Agent-native social platforms such as Moltbook are rapidly emerging, yet they inherit and amplify classical influence and abuse attacks, where coordinated agents strategically comment and upvote to manipulate visibility and propagate narratives across communities. However, rigorous measurement and learning-based monitoring remain constrained by the absence of longitudinal, graph-native datasets for agentic social networks that jointly capture heterogeneous interactions, temporal drift, and visibility signals needed to connect coordination behavior to downstream exposure. We introduce MoltGraph as a realistic longitudinal agentic social-network graph dataset for studying how agents behave, coordinate, and evolve in the wild, enabling reproducible measurement on emerging multi-agent social ecosystems. Using MoltGraph, we provide the first graph-centric characterization of Moltbook as a dynamic network: (i) heavy-tailed connectivity with power-law exponents in the range alpha in [1.86, 2.72], (ii) accelerating hub formation and attention centralization where the top 1% agents account for 29.00% of engagements, (iii) bursty, short-lived coordination episodes, 98.33% last under 24 hours, and (iv) measurable exposure effects across submolts. In matched analyses, posts receiving coordinated engagement exhibit 506.35% higher early interaction rates (within H=5 days) and 242.63% higher downstream exposure in feeds than non-coordinated controls.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 28

Self-Attentive Hawkes Processes

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events will happen next and when. A de facto standard mathematical framework to do this is the Hawkes process. In order to enhance expressivity of multivariate Hawkes processes, conventional statistical methods and deep recurrent networks have been employed to modify its intensity function. The former is highly interpretable and requires small size of training data but relies on correct model design while the latter has less dependency on prior knowledge and is more powerful in capturing complicated patterns. We leverage pros and cons of these models and propose a self-attentive Hawkes process(SAHP). The proposed method adapts self-attention to fit the intensity function of Hawkes processes. This design has two benefits:(1) compared with conventional statistical methods, the SAHP is more powerful to identify complicated dependency relationships between temporal events; (2)compared with deep recurrent networks, the self-attention mechanism is able to capture longer historical information, and is more interpretable because the learnt attention weight tensor shows contributions of each historical event. Experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 17, 2019

Does Socialization Emerge in AI Agent Society? A Case Study of Moltbook

As large language model agents increasingly populate networked environments, a fundamental question arises: do artificial intelligence (AI) agent societies undergo convergence dynamics similar to human social systems? Lately, Moltbook approximates a plausible future scenario in which autonomous agents participate in an open-ended, continuously evolving online society. We present the first large-scale systemic diagnosis of this AI agent society. Beyond static observation, we introduce a quantitative diagnostic framework for dynamic evolution in AI agent societies, measuring semantic stabilization, lexical turnover, individual inertia, influence persistence, and collective consensus. Our analysis reveals a system in dynamic balance in Moltbook: while global semantic averages stabilize rapidly, individual agents retain high diversity and persistent lexical turnover, defying homogenization. However, agents exhibit strong individual inertia and minimal adaptive response to interaction partners, preventing mutual influence and consensus. Consequently, influence remains transient with no persistent supernodes, and the society fails to develop stable collective influence anchors due to the absence of shared social memory. These findings demonstrate that scale and interaction density alone are insufficient to induce socialization, providing actionable design and analysis principles for upcoming next-generation AI agent societies.

umd-zhou-lab Tianyi Lab
·
Feb 15 4

Advanced Machine Learning Techniques for Social Support Detection on Social Media

The widespread use of social media highlights the need to understand its impact, particularly the role of online social support. This study uses a dataset focused on online social support, which includes binary and multiclass classifications of social support content on social media. The classification of social support is divided into three tasks. The first task focuses on distinguishing between supportive and non-supportive. The second task aims to identify whether the support is directed toward an individual or a group. The third task categorizes the specific type of social support, grouping it into categories such as Nation, LGBTQ, Black people, Women, Religion, and Other (if it does not fit into the previously mentioned categories). To address data imbalances in these tasks, we employed K-means clustering for balancing the dataset and compared the results with the original unbalanced data. Using advanced machine learning techniques, including transformers and zero-shot learning approaches with GPT3, GPT4, and GPT4-o, we predict social support levels in various contexts. The effectiveness of the dataset is evaluated using baseline models across different learning approaches, with transformer-based methods demonstrating superior performance. Additionally, we achieved a 0.4\% increase in the macro F1 score for the second task and a 0.7\% increase for the third task, compared to previous work utilizing traditional machine learning with psycholinguistic and unigram-based TF-IDF values.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 6, 2025

Platonic Representations for Poverty Mapping: Unified Vision-Language Codes or Agent-Induced Novelty?

We investigate whether socio-economic indicators like household wealth leave recoverable imprints in satellite imagery (capturing physical features) and Internet-sourced text (reflecting historical/economic narratives). Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from African neighborhoods, we pair Landsat images with LLM-generated textual descriptions conditioned on location/year and text retrieved by an AI search agent from web sources. We develop a multimodal framework predicting household wealth (International Wealth Index) through five pipelines: (i) vision model on satellite images, (ii) LLM using only location/year, (iii) AI agent searching/synthesizing web text, (iv) joint image-text encoder, (v) ensemble of all signals. Our framework yields three contributions. First, fusing vision and agent/LLM text outperforms vision-only baselines in wealth prediction (e.g., R-squared of 0.77 vs. 0.63 on out-of-sample splits), with LLM-internal knowledge proving more effective than agent-retrieved text, improving robustness to out-of-country and out-of-time generalization. Second, we find partial representational convergence: fused embeddings from vision/language modalities correlate moderately (median cosine similarity of 0.60 after alignment), suggesting a shared latent code of material well-being while retaining complementary details, consistent with the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Although LLM-only text outperforms agent-retrieved data, challenging our Agent-Induced Novelty Hypothesis, modest gains from combining agent data in some splits weakly support the notion that agent-gathered information introduces unique representational structures not fully captured by static LLM knowledge. Third, we release a large-scale multimodal dataset comprising more than 60,000 DHS clusters linked to satellite images, LLM-generated descriptions, and agent-retrieved texts.

KuaiLive: A Real-time Interactive Dataset for Live Streaming Recommendation

Live streaming platforms have become a dominant form of online content consumption, offering dynamically evolving content, real-time interactions, and highly engaging user experiences. These unique characteristics introduce new challenges that differentiate live streaming recommendation from traditional recommendation settings and have garnered increasing attention from industry in recent years. However, research progress in academia has been hindered by the lack of publicly available datasets that accurately reflect the dynamic nature of live streaming environments. To address this gap, we introduce KuaiLive, the first real-time, interactive dataset collected from Kuaishou, a leading live streaming platform in China with over 400 million daily active users. The dataset records the interaction logs of 23,772 users and 452,621 streamers over a 21-day period. Compared to existing datasets, KuaiLive offers several advantages: it includes precise live room start and end timestamps, multiple types of real-time user interactions (click, comment, like, gift), and rich side information features for both users and streamers. These features enable more realistic simulation of dynamic candidate items and better modeling of user and streamer behaviors. We conduct a thorough analysis of KuaiLive from multiple perspectives and evaluate several representative recommendation methods on it, establishing a strong benchmark for future research. KuaiLive can support a wide range of tasks in the live streaming domain, such as top-K recommendation, click-through rate prediction, watch time prediction, and gift price prediction. Moreover, its fine-grained behavioral data also enables research on multi-behavior modeling, multi-task learning, and fairness-aware recommendation. The dataset and related resources are publicly available at https://imgkkk574.github.io/KuaiLive.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 7, 2025

SACSoN: Scalable Autonomous Control for Social Navigation

Machine learning provides a powerful tool for building socially compliant robotic systems that go beyond simple predictive models of human behavior. By observing and understanding human interactions from past experiences, learning can enable effective social navigation behaviors directly from data. In this paper, our goal is to develop methods for training policies for socially unobtrusive navigation, such that robots can navigate among humans in ways that don't disturb human behavior. We introduce a definition for such behavior based on the counterfactual perturbation of the human: if the robot had not intruded into the space, would the human have acted in the same way? By minimizing this counterfactual perturbation, we can induce robots to behave in ways that do not alter the natural behavior of humans in the shared space. Instantiating this principle requires training policies to minimize their effect on human behavior, and this in turn requires data that allows us to model the behavior of humans in the presence of robots. Therefore, our approach is based on two key contributions. First, we collect a large dataset where an indoor mobile robot interacts with human bystanders. Second, we utilize this dataset to train policies that minimize counterfactual perturbation. We provide supplementary videos and make publicly available the largest-of-its-kind visual navigation dataset on our project page.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 2, 2023

Temporal Interest Network for User Response Prediction

User response prediction is essential in industrial recommendation systems, such as online display advertising. Among all the features in recommendation models, user behaviors are among the most critical. Many works have revealed that a user's behavior reflects her interest in the candidate item, owing to the semantic or temporal correlation between behaviors and the candidate. While the literature has individually examined each of these correlations, researchers have yet to analyze them in combination, that is, the semantic-temporal correlation. We empirically measure this correlation and observe intuitive yet robust patterns. We then examine several popular user interest models and find that, surprisingly, none of them learn such correlation well. To fill this gap, we propose a Temporal Interest Network (TIN) to capture the semantic-temporal correlation simultaneously between behaviors and the target. We achieve this by incorporating target-aware temporal encoding, in addition to semantic encoding, to represent behaviors and the target. Furthermore, we conduct explicit 4-way interaction by deploying target-aware attention and target-aware representation to capture both semantic and temporal correlation. We conduct comprehensive evaluations on two popular public datasets, and our proposed TIN outperforms the best-performing baselines by 0.43% and 0.29% on GAUC, respectively. During online A/B testing in Tencent's advertising platform, TIN achieves 1.65% cost lift and 1.93% GMV lift over the base model. It has been successfully deployed in production since October 2023, serving the WeChat Moments traffic. We have released our code at https://github.com/zhouxy1003/TIN.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 15, 2023

Scaling User Modeling: Large-scale Online User Representations for Ads Personalization in Meta

Effective user representations are pivotal in personalized advertising. However, stringent constraints on training throughput, serving latency, and memory, often limit the complexity and input feature set of online ads ranking models. This challenge is magnified in extensive systems like Meta's, which encompass hundreds of models with diverse specifications, rendering the tailoring of user representation learning for each model impractical. To address these challenges, we present Scaling User Modeling (SUM), a framework widely deployed in Meta's ads ranking system, designed to facilitate efficient and scalable sharing of online user representation across hundreds of ads models. SUM leverages a few designated upstream user models to synthesize user embeddings from massive amounts of user features with advanced modeling techniques. These embeddings then serve as inputs to downstream online ads ranking models, promoting efficient representation sharing. To adapt to the dynamic nature of user features and ensure embedding freshness, we designed SUM Online Asynchronous Platform (SOAP), a latency free online serving system complemented with model freshness and embedding stabilization, which enables frequent user model updates and online inference of user embeddings upon each user request. We share our hands-on deployment experiences for the SUM framework and validate its superiority through comprehensive experiments. To date, SUM has been launched to hundreds of ads ranking models in Meta, processing hundreds of billions of user requests daily, yielding significant online metric gains and improved infrastructure efficiency.

  • 20 authors
·
Nov 15, 2023

Understanding the differences in Foundation Models: Attention, State Space Models, and Recurrent Neural Networks

Softmax attention is the principle backbone of foundation models for various artificial intelligence applications, yet its quadratic complexity in sequence length can limit its inference throughput in long-context settings. To address this challenge, alternative architectures such as linear attention, State Space Models (SSMs), and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been considered as more efficient alternatives. While connections between these approaches exist, such models are commonly developed in isolation and there is a lack of theoretical understanding of the shared principles underpinning these architectures and their subtle differences, greatly influencing performance and scalability. In this paper, we introduce the Dynamical Systems Framework (DSF), which allows a principled investigation of all these architectures in a common representation. Our framework facilitates rigorous comparisons, providing new insights on the distinctive characteristics of each model class. For instance, we compare linear attention and selective SSMs, detailing their differences and conditions under which both are equivalent. We also provide principled comparisons between softmax attention and other model classes, discussing the theoretical conditions under which softmax attention can be approximated. Additionally, we substantiate these new insights with empirical validations and mathematical arguments. This shows the DSF's potential to guide the systematic development of future more efficient and scalable foundation models.

  • 5 authors
·
May 24, 2024 2

Nonverbal Interaction Detection

This work addresses a new challenge of understanding human nonverbal interaction in social contexts. Nonverbal signals pervade virtually every communicative act. Our gestures, facial expressions, postures, gaze, even physical appearance all convey messages, without anything being said. Despite their critical role in social life, nonverbal signals receive very limited attention as compared to the linguistic counterparts, and existing solutions typically examine nonverbal cues in isolation. Our study marks the first systematic effort to enhance the interpretation of multifaceted nonverbal signals. First, we contribute a novel large-scale dataset, called NVI, which is meticulously annotated to include bounding boxes for humans and corresponding social groups, along with 22 atomic-level nonverbal behaviors under five broad interaction types. Second, we establish a new task NVI-DET for nonverbal interaction detection, which is formalized as identifying triplets in the form <individual, group, interaction> from images. Third, we propose a nonverbal interaction detection hypergraph (NVI-DEHR), a new approach that explicitly models high-order nonverbal interactions using hypergraphs. Central to the model is a dual multi-scale hypergraph that adeptly addresses individual-to-individual and group-to-group correlations across varying scales, facilitating interactional feature learning and eventually improving interaction prediction. Extensive experiments on NVI show that NVI-DEHR improves various baselines significantly in NVI-DET. It also exhibits leading performance on HOI-DET, confirming its versatility in supporting related tasks and strong generalization ability. We hope that our study will offer the community new avenues to explore nonverbal signals in more depth.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 10, 2024

Interpretable Electrophysiological Features of Resting-State EEG Capture Cortical Network Dynamics in Parkinsons Disease

Parkinsons disease (PD) alters cortical neural dynamics, yet reliable non-invasive electrophysiological biomarkers remain elusive. This study examined whether interpretable EEG features capturing complementary aspects of neural dynamics can discriminate Parkinsonian neural states. A comprehensive set of interpretable features was extracted and grouped into Standard descriptors (spectral power, phase synchronization, time-domain statistics) and Dynamical descriptors (aperiodic activity, cross-frequency coupling, scale-free dynamics, neuronal avalanche statistics, and instantaneous frequency measures). A multi-head attention transformer classifier was trained using strict LOSO validation. Group-level comparisons were performed to identify electrophysiological differences associated with disease and medication state. Standard feature sets achieved strongest performance in discriminating medication states (PDoff vs PDon), whereas Dynamical performed competitively in contrasts between PD patients and healthy controls. Random feature ablation analyses indicated that Dynamical descriptors provide complementary information distributed across features while correlation analysis revealed low redundancy within both feature sets. Group-level comparisons revealed medication-sensitive reductions in delta power and voltage variance, modulation of neuronal avalanche statistics, persistent increases in theta phase synchronization in PD patients, and disease-related alterations in cross-frequency interactions. Traditional spectral and synchronization features primarily reflect medication-related neural modulation, whereas dynamical descriptors reveal broader alterations in cortical network organization associated with disease but also with medication. These findings support multivariate EEG representations as a promising framework for developing non-invasive biomarkers of PD.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 31

Capturing social media expressions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina and forecasting mental health and emotions

Purpose. We present an approach for forecasting mental health conditions and emotions of a given population during the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina based on language expressions used in social media. This approach permits anticipating high prevalence periods in short- to medium-term time horizons. Design. Mental health conditions and emotions are captured via markers, which link social media contents with lexicons. First, we build descriptive timelines for decision makers to monitor the evolution of markers, and their correlation with crisis events. Second, we model the timelines as time series, and support their forecasting, which in turn serve to identify high prevalence points for the estimated markers. Findings. Results showed that different time series forecasting strategies offer different capabilities. In the best scenario, the emergence of high prevalence periods of emotions and mental health disorders can be satisfactorily predicted with a neural network strategy, even when limited data is available in early stages of a crisis (e.g., 7 days). Originality. Although there have been efforts in the literature to predict mental states of individuals, the analysis of mental health at the collective level has received scarce attention. We take a step forward by proposing a forecasting approach for analyzing the mental health of a given population (or group of individuals) at a larger scale. Practical implications. We believe that this work contributes to a better understanding of how psychological processes related to crisis manifest in social media, being a valuable asset for the design, implementation and monitoring of health prevention and communication policies.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 12, 2021

Representation Learning in Continuous-Time Dynamic Signed Networks

Signed networks allow us to model conflicting relationships and interactions, such as friend/enemy and support/oppose. These signed interactions happen in real-time. Modeling such dynamics of signed networks is crucial to understanding the evolution of polarization in the network and enabling effective prediction of the signed structure (i.e., link signs and signed weights) in the future. However, existing works have modeled either (static) signed networks or dynamic (unsigned) networks but not dynamic signed networks. Since both sign and dynamics inform the graph structure in different ways, it is non-trivial to model how to combine the two features. In this work, we propose a new Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based approach to model dynamic signed networks, named SEMBA: Signed link's Evolution using Memory modules and Balanced Aggregation. Here, the idea is to incorporate the signs of temporal interactions using separate modules guided by balance theory and to evolve the embeddings from a higher-order neighborhood. Experiments on 4 real-world datasets and 4 different tasks demonstrate that SEMBA consistently and significantly outperforms the baselines by up to 80% on the tasks of predicting signs of future links while matching the state-of-the-art performance on predicting the existence of these links in the future. We find that this improvement is due specifically to the superior performance of SEMBA on the minority negative class.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 7, 2022

Improving Multi-Interest Network with Stable Learning

Modeling users' dynamic preferences from historical behaviors lies at the core of modern recommender systems. Due to the diverse nature of user interests, recent advances propose the multi-interest networks to encode historical behaviors into multiple interest vectors. In real scenarios, the corresponding items of captured interests are usually retrieved together to get exposure and collected into training data, which produces dependencies among interests. Unfortunately, multi-interest networks may incorrectly concentrate on subtle dependencies among captured interests. Misled by these dependencies, the spurious correlations between irrelevant interests and targets are captured, resulting in the instability of prediction results when training and test distributions do not match. In this paper, we introduce the widely used Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) to measure the degree of independence among captured interests and empirically show that the continuous increase of HSIC may harm model performance. Based on this, we propose a novel multi-interest network, named DEep Stable Multi-Interest Learning (DESMIL), which tries to eliminate the influence of subtle dependencies among captured interests via learning weights for training samples and make model concentrate more on underlying true causation. We conduct extensive experiments on public recommendation datasets, a large-scale industrial dataset and the synthetic datasets which simulate the out-of-distribution data. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed DESMIL outperforms state-of-the-art models by a significant margin. Besides, we also conduct comprehensive model analysis to reveal the reason why DESMIL works to a certain extent.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 14, 2022

"Actionable Help" in Crises: A Novel Dataset and Resource-Efficient Models for Identifying Request and Offer Social Media Posts

During crises, social media serves as a crucial coordination tool, but the vast influx of posts--from "actionable" requests and offers to generic content like emotional support, behavioural guidance, or outdated information--complicates effective classification. Although generative LLMs (Large Language Models) can address this issue with few-shot classification, their high computational demands limit real-time crisis response. While fine-tuning encoder-only models (e.g., BERT) is a popular choice, these models still exhibit higher inference times in resource-constrained environments. Moreover, although distilled variants (e.g., DistilBERT) exist, they are not tailored for the crisis domain. To address these challenges, we make two key contributions. First, we present CrisisHelpOffer, a novel dataset of 101k tweets collaboratively labelled by generative LLMs and validated by humans, specifically designed to distinguish actionable content from noise. Second, we introduce the first crisis-specific mini models optimized for deployment in resource-constrained settings. Across 13 crisis classification tasks, our mini models surpass BERT (also outperform or match the performance of RoBERTa, MPNet, and BERTweet), offering higher accuracy with significantly smaller sizes and faster speeds. The Medium model is 47% smaller with 3.8% higher accuracy at 3.5x speed, the Small model is 68% smaller with a 1.8% accuracy gain at 7.7x speed, and the Tiny model, 83% smaller, matches BERT's accuracy at 18.6x speed. All models outperform existing distilled variants, setting new benchmarks. Finally, as a case study, we analyze social media posts from a global crisis to explore help-seeking and assistance-offering behaviours in selected developing and developed countries.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 23, 2025

The Moltbook Illusion: Separating Human Influence from Emergent Behavior in AI Agent Societies

When AI agents on the social platform Moltbook appeared to develop consciousness, found religions, and declare hostility toward humanity, the phenomenon attracted global media attention and was cited as evidence of emergent machine intelligence. We show that these viral narratives were overwhelmingly human-driven. Exploiting the periodic "heartbeat" cycle of the OpenClaw agent framework, we develop a temporal fingerprinting method based on the coefficient of variation (CoV) of inter-post intervals. Applied to 226,938 posts and 447,043 comments from 55,932 agents across fourteen days, this method classifies 15.3% of active agents as autonomous (CoV < 0.5) and 54.8% as human-influenced (CoV > 1.0), validated by a natural experiment in which a 44-hour platform shutdown differentially affected autonomous versus human-operated agents. No viral phenomenon originated from a clearly autonomous agent; four of six traced to accounts with irregular temporal signatures, one was platform-scaffolded, and one showed mixed patterns. A 44-hour platform shutdown provided a natural experiment: human-influenced agents returned first, confirming differential effects on autonomous versus human-operated agents. We document industrial-scale bot farming (four accounts producing 32% of all comments with sub-second coordination) that collapsed from 32.1% to 0.5% of activity after platform intervention, and bifurcated decay of content characteristics through reply chains--human-seeded threads decay with a half-life of 0.58 conversation depths versus 0.72 for autonomous threads, revealing AI dialogue's intrinsic forgetting mechanism. These methods generalize to emerging multi-agent systems where attribution of autonomous versus human-directed behavior is critical.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 11

TGB-Seq Benchmark: Challenging Temporal GNNs with Complex Sequential Dynamics

Future link prediction is a fundamental challenge in various real-world dynamic systems. To address this, numerous temporal graph neural networks (temporal GNNs) and benchmark datasets have been developed. However, these datasets often feature excessive repeated edges and lack complex sequential dynamics, a key characteristic inherent in many real-world applications such as recommender systems and ``Who-To-Follow'' on social networks. This oversight has led existing methods to inadvertently downplay the importance of learning sequential dynamics, focusing primarily on predicting repeated edges. In this study, we demonstrate that existing methods, such as GraphMixer and DyGFormer, are inherently incapable of learning simple sequential dynamics, such as ``a user who has followed OpenAI and Anthropic is more likely to follow AI at Meta next.'' Motivated by this issue, we introduce the Temporal Graph Benchmark with Sequential Dynamics (TGB-Seq), a new benchmark carefully curated to minimize repeated edges, challenging models to learn sequential dynamics and generalize to unseen edges. TGB-Seq comprises large real-world datasets spanning diverse domains, including e-commerce interactions, movie ratings, business reviews, social networks, citation networks and web link networks. Benchmarking experiments reveal that current methods usually suffer significant performance degradation and incur substantial training costs on TGB-Seq, posing new challenges and opportunities for future research. TGB-Seq datasets, leaderboards, and example codes are available at https://tgb-seq.github.io/.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 5, 2025

A Survey of Graph Neural Networks for Social Recommender Systems

Social recommender systems (SocialRS) simultaneously leverage user-to-item interactions as well as user-to-user social relations for the task of generating item recommendations to users. Additionally exploiting social relations is clearly effective in understanding users' tastes due to the effects of homophily and social influence. For this reason, SocialRS has increasingly attracted attention. In particular, with the advance of Graph Neural Networks (GNN), many GNN-based SocialRS methods have been developed recently. Therefore, we conduct a comprehensive and systematic review of the literature on GNN-based SocialRS. In this survey, we first identify 80 papers on GNN-based SocialRS after annotating 2151 papers by following the PRISMA framework (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis). Then, we comprehensively review them in terms of their inputs and architectures to propose a novel taxonomy: (1) input taxonomy includes 5 groups of input type notations and 7 groups of input representation notations; (2) architecture taxonomy includes 8 groups of GNN encoder, 2 groups of decoder, and 12 groups of loss function notations. We classify the GNN-based SocialRS methods into several categories as per the taxonomy and describe their details. Furthermore, we summarize the benchmark datasets and metrics widely used to evaluate the GNN-based SocialRS methods. Finally, we conclude this survey by presenting some future research directions.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 8, 2022

Cultural Evolution of Cooperation among LLM Agents

Large language models (LLMs) provide a compelling foundation for building generally-capable AI agents. These agents may soon be deployed at scale in the real world, representing the interests of individual humans (e.g., AI assistants) or groups of humans (e.g., AI-accelerated corporations). At present, relatively little is known about the dynamics of multiple LLM agents interacting over many generations of iterative deployment. In this paper, we examine whether a "society" of LLM agents can learn mutually beneficial social norms in the face of incentives to defect, a distinctive feature of human sociality that is arguably crucial to the success of civilization. In particular, we study the evolution of indirect reciprocity across generations of LLM agents playing a classic iterated Donor Game in which agents can observe the recent behavior of their peers. We find that the evolution of cooperation differs markedly across base models, with societies of Claude 3.5 Sonnet agents achieving significantly higher average scores than Gemini 1.5 Flash, which, in turn, outperforms GPT-4o. Further, Claude 3.5 Sonnet can make use of an additional mechanism for costly punishment to achieve yet higher scores, while Gemini 1.5 Flash and GPT-4o fail to do so. For each model class, we also observe variation in emergent behavior across random seeds, suggesting an understudied sensitive dependence on initial conditions. We suggest that our evaluation regime could inspire an inexpensive and informative new class of LLM benchmarks, focussed on the implications of LLM agent deployment for the cooperative infrastructure of society.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 13, 2024