Daily Papers

Multi-camera tracking plays a pivotal role in various real-world applications. While end-to-end methods have gained significant interest in single-camera tracking, multi-camera tracking remains predominantly reliant on heuristic techniques. In response to this gap, this paper introduces Multi-Camera Tracking tRansformer (MCTR), a novel end-to-end approach tailored for multi-object detection and tracking across multiple cameras with overlapping fields of view. MCTR leverages end-to-end detectors like DEtector TRansformer (DETR) to produce detections and detection embeddings independently for each camera view. The framework maintains set of track embeddings that encaplusate global information about the tracked objects, and updates them at every frame by integrating the local information from the view-specific detection embeddings. The track embeddings are probabilistically associated with detections in every camera view and frame to generate consistent object tracks. The soft probabilistic association facilitates the design of differentiable losses that enable end-to-end training of the entire system. To validate our approach, we conduct experiments on MMPTrack and AI City Challenge, two recently introduced large-scale multi-camera multi-object tracking datasets.

In this paper, we propose a new deep learning approach, called neural association model (NAM), for probabilistic reasoning in artificial intelligence. We propose to use neural networks to model association between any two events in a domain. Neural networks take one event as input and compute a conditional probability of the other event to model how likely these two events are to be associated. The actual meaning of the conditional probabilities varies between applications and depends on how the models are trained. In this work, as two case studies, we have investigated two NAM structures, namely deep neural networks (DNN) and relation-modulated neural nets (RMNN), on several probabilistic reasoning tasks in AI, including recognizing textual entailment, triple classification in multi-relational knowledge bases and commonsense reasoning. Experimental results on several popular datasets derived from WordNet, FreeBase and ConceptNet have all demonstrated that both DNNs and RMNNs perform equally well and they can significantly outperform the conventional methods available for these reasoning tasks. Moreover, compared with DNNs, RMNNs are superior in knowledge transfer, where a pre-trained model can be quickly extended to an unseen relation after observing only a few training samples. To further prove the effectiveness of the proposed models, in this work, we have applied NAMs to solving challenging Winograd Schema (WS) problems. Experiments conducted on a set of WS problems prove that the proposed models have the potential for commonsense reasoning.

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do not provide an effective way to infer the real uncertainty associated with the model's predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer for misclassification detection. By learning patterns in the distribution of soft-predictions, our uncertainty measure can identify misclassified samples based on the predicted class probabilities. Interestingly, according to the proposed measure, soft-predictions corresponding to misclassified instances can carry a large amount of uncertainty, even though they may have low Shannon entropy. We demonstrate empirical improvements over multiple image classification tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art misclassification detection methods.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

Inspired by Regularized Lottery Ticket Hypothesis (RLTH), which hypothesizes that there exist smooth (non-binary) subnetworks within a dense network that achieve the competitive performance of the dense network, we propose a few-shot class incremental learning (FSCIL) method referred to as Soft-SubNetworks (SoftNet). Our objective is to learn a sequence of sessions incrementally, where each session only includes a few training instances per class while preserving the knowledge of the previously learned ones. SoftNet jointly learns the model weights and adaptive non-binary soft masks at a base training session in which each mask consists of the major and minor subnetwork; the former aims to minimize catastrophic forgetting during training, and the latter aims to avoid overfitting to a few samples in each new training session. We provide comprehensive empirical validations demonstrating that our SoftNet effectively tackles the few-shot incremental learning problem by surpassing the performance of state-of-the-art baselines over benchmark datasets.

Anomaly detection plays an important role in modern data-driven security applications, such as detecting suspicious access to a socket from a process. In many cases, such events can be described as a collection of categorical values that are considered as entities of different types, which we call heterogeneous categorical events. Due to the lack of intrinsic distance measures among entities, and the exponentially large event space, most existing work relies heavily on heuristics to calculate abnormal scores for events. Different from previous work, we propose a principled and unified probabilistic model APE (Anomaly detection via Probabilistic pairwise interaction and Entity embedding) that directly models the likelihood of events. In this model, we embed entities into a common latent space using their observed co-occurrence in different events. More specifically, we first model the compatibility of each pair of entities according to their embeddings. Then we utilize the weighted pairwise interactions of different entity types to define the event probability. Using Noise-Contrastive Estimation with "context-dependent" noise distribution, our model can be learned efficiently regardless of the large event space. Experimental results on real enterprise surveillance data show that our methods can accurately detect abnormal events compared to other state-of-the-art abnormal detection techniques.

In this paper, we consider the problem of conditional anomaly detection that aims to identify data instances with an unusual response or a class label. We develop a new non-parametric approach for conditional anomaly detection based on the soft harmonic solution, with which we estimate the confidence of the label to detect anomalous mislabeling. We further regularize the solution to avoid the detection of isolated examples and examples on the boundary of the distribution support. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method on several synthetic and UCI ML datasets in detecting unusual labels when compared to several baseline approaches. We also evaluate the performance of our method on a real-world electronic health record dataset where we seek to identify unusual patient-management decisions.

The field of multi-object tracking has recently seen a renewed interest in the good old schema of tracking-by-detection, as its simplicity and strong priors spare it from the complex design and painful babysitting of tracking-by-attention approaches. In view of this, we aim at extending tracking-by-detection to multi-modal settings, where a comprehensive cost has to be computed from heterogeneous information e.g., 2D motion cues, visual appearance, and pose estimates. More precisely, we follow a case study where a rough estimate of 3D information is also available and must be merged with other traditional metrics (e.g., the IoU). To achieve that, recent approaches resort to either simple rules or complex heuristics to balance the contribution of each cost. However, i) they require careful tuning of tailored hyperparameters on a hold-out set, and ii) they imply these costs to be independent, which does not hold in reality. We address these issues by building upon an elegant probabilistic formulation, which considers the cost of a candidate association as the negative log-likelihood yielded by a deep density estimator, trained to model the conditional joint probability distribution of correct associations. Our experiments, conducted on both simulated and real benchmarks, show that our approach consistently enhances the performance of several tracking-by-detection algorithms.

Real-world classification problems typically exhibit an imbalanced or long-tailed label distribution, wherein many labels are associated with only a few samples. This poses a challenge for generalisation on such labels, and also makes naïve learning biased towards dominant labels. In this paper, we present two simple modifications of standard softmax cross-entropy training to cope with these challenges. Our techniques revisit the classic idea of logit adjustment based on the label frequencies, either applied post-hoc to a trained model, or enforced in the loss during training. Such adjustment encourages a large relative margin between logits of rare versus dominant labels. These techniques unify and generalise several recent proposals in the literature, while possessing firmer statistical grounding and empirical performance.

Topic modeling is admittedly a convenient way to monitor markets trend. Conventionally, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, LDA, is considered a must-do model to gain this type of information. By given the merit of deducing keyword with token conditional probability in LDA, we can know the most possible or essential topic. However, the results are not intuitive because the given topics cannot wholly fit human knowledge. LDA offers the first possible relevant keywords, which also brings out another problem of whether the connection is reliable based on the statistic possibility. It is also hard to decide the topic number manually in advance. As the booming trend of using fuzzy membership to cluster and using transformers to embed words, this work presents the fuzzy topic modeling based on soft clustering and document embedding from state-of-the-art transformer-based model. In our practical application in a press release monitoring, the fuzzy topic modeling gives a more natural result than the traditional output from LDA.

Federated Learning enables multiple data centers to train a central model collaboratively without exposing any confidential data. Even though deterministic models are capable of performing high prediction accuracy, their lack of calibration and capability to quantify uncertainty is problematic for safety-critical applications. Different from deterministic models, probabilistic models such as Bayesian neural networks are relatively well-calibrated and able to quantify uncertainty alongside their competitive prediction accuracy. Both of the approaches appear in the federated learning framework; however, the aggregation scheme of deterministic models cannot be directly applied to probabilistic models since weights correspond to distributions instead of point estimates. In this work, we study the effects of various aggregation schemes for variational Bayesian neural networks. With empirical results on three image classification datasets, we observe that the degree of spread for an aggregated distribution is a significant factor in the learning process. Hence, we present an investigation on the question of how to combine variational Bayesian networks in federated learning, while providing benchmarks for different aggregation settings.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Late-interaction retrieval models that use the MaxSim similarity function have shown strong empirical performance, often outperforming single-vector dense and sparse retrieval models. Despite these empirical findings, little is known about the theoretical representation power of MaxSim and how it compares to other retrieval approaches. This paper shows by construction that MaxSim similarity can exactly replicate the inner product between any two non-negative k-sparse vectors with possibly infinite dimension, requiring only O(k) representation space. Moreover, there exist similarities that MaxSim can express while standard vector inner products with the same representation space cannot. Leveraging our theoretical framework, we introduce Signed MaxSim which allows late-interaction models to exactly replicate any real-valued inner product, something we prove standard MaxSim is not capable of. We also show that MaxSim can act as an aggregation of soft-OR operations and as an evaluator of logical expressions in positive Conjunctive Normal Form. Our findings show that MaxSim is at least as capable as standard vector inner products for any non-negative vectors and our extension, Signed MaxSim, is as capable for any vectors. Both similarities possess additional capabilities that inner product cannot replicate, marking one of the first theoretical justifications and quantifications of late-interaction methods. Our theoretical findings are supported empirically: on a retrieval task featuring queries with negations, Signed MaxSim improves out-of-domain performance significantly over a standard ColBERT/MaxSim baseline with nDCG@10 increasing from 0.597 to 1.000 under a vocabulary shift and from 0.008 to 0.788 on negation-only queries.

We consider the two related problems of detecting if an example is misclassified or out-of-distribution. We present a simple baseline that utilizes probabilities from softmax distributions. Correctly classified examples tend to have greater maximum softmax probabilities than erroneously classified and out-of-distribution examples, allowing for their detection. We assess performance by defining several tasks in computer vision, natural language processing, and automatic speech recognition, showing the effectiveness of this baseline across all. We then show the baseline can sometimes be surpassed, demonstrating the room for future research on these underexplored detection tasks.

Real-world decision-making, from tax compliance assessment to medical diagnosis, requires aggregating multiple noisy and potentially contradictory evidence sources. Existing approaches either lack explicit uncertainty quantification (neural aggregation methods) or rely on manually engineered discrete predicates (probabilistic logic frameworks), limiting scalability to unstructured data. We introduce Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a framework that transforms Variational Autoencoder (VAE) latent posteriors into soft likelihood factors for Sum-Product Network (SPN) inference, enabling tractable probabilistic reasoning over unstructured evidence while preserving calibrated uncertainty estimates. We instantiate LPF as LPF-SPN (structured factor-based inference) and LPF-Learned (end-to-end learned aggregation), enabling a principled comparison between explicit probabilistic reasoning and learned aggregation under a shared uncertainty representation. Across eight domains (seven synthetic and the FEVER benchmark), LPF-SPN achieves high accuracy (up to 97.8%), low calibration error (ECE 1.4%), and strong probabilistic fit, substantially outperforming evidential deep learning, LLMs and graph-based baselines over 15 random seeds. Contributions: (1) A framework bridging latent uncertainty representations with structured probabilistic reasoning. (2) Dual architectures enabling controlled comparison of reasoning paradigms. (3) Reproducible training methodology with seed selection. (4) Evaluation against EDL, BERT, R-GCN, and large language model baselines. (5) Cross-domain validation. (6) Formal guarantees in a companion paper.

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly tasked with complex real-world analysis (e.g., in financial forecasting, scientific discovery), yet their reasoning suffers from stochastic instability and lacks a verifiable, compositional structure. To address this, we introduce Analytica, a novel agent architecture built on the principle of Soft Propositional Reasoning (SPR). SPR reframes complex analysis as a structured process of estimating the soft truth values of different outcome propositions, allowing us to formally model and minimize the estimation error in terms of its bias and variance. Analytica operationalizes this through a parallel, divide-and-conquer framework that systematically reduces both sources of error. To reduce bias, problems are first decomposed into a tree of subpropositions, and tool-equipped LLM grounder agents are employed, including a novel Jupyter Notebook agent for data-driven analysis, that help to validate and score facts. To reduce variance, Analytica recursively synthesizes these grounded leaves using robust linear models that average out stochastic noise with superior efficiency, scalability, and enable interactive "what-if" scenario analysis. Our theoretical and empirical results on economic, financial, and political forecasting tasks show that Analytica improves 15.84% accuracy on average over diverse base models, achieving 71.06% accuracy with the lowest variance of 6.02% when working with a Deep Research grounder. Our Jupyter Notebook grounder shows strong cost-effectiveness that achieves a close 70.11% accuracy with 90.35% less cost and 52.85% less time. Analytica also exhibits highly noise-resilient and stable performance growth as the analysis depth increases, with a near-linear time complexity, as well as good adaptivity to open-weight LLMs and scientific domains.

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building a probabilistic graphical model Psi of the data, in the form of a random-access autoregressive sequence model. Psi supports a complete set of learned conditional distributions describing the dependence of any variables in the data on any other set of variables. In step 2, Structure extraction, we show how to extract underlying low-dimensional properties in the data, corresponding to a diverse set of meaningful "intermediate structures", in a zero-shot fashion via causal inference on Psi. Step 3, Integration, completes the cycle by converting these structures into new token types that are then continually mixed back into the training diet as conditioning signals and prediction targets. Each such cycle augments the capabilities of Psi, both allowing it to model the underlying data better, and creating new control handles -- akin to an LLM-like universal prompting language. We train an instance of Psi on 1.4 trillion tokens of internet video data; we use it to perform a variety of useful video prediction and understanding inferences; we extract state-of-the-art optical flow, self-supervised depth and object segmentation; and we use these structures to support a full cycle of predictive improvements.

Timely detection of concerning events is an important problem in clinical practice. In this paper, we consider the problem of conditional anomaly detection that aims to identify data instances with an unusual response, such as the omission of an important lab test. We develop a new non-parametric approach for conditional anomaly detection based on the soft harmonic solution, with which we estimate the confidence of the label to detect anomalous mislabeling. We further regularize the solution to avoid the detection of isolated examples and examples on the boundary of the distribution support. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in detecting unusual labels on a real-world electronic health record dataset and compare it to several baseline approaches.

Selecting an effective training signal for machine learning tasks is difficult: expert annotations are expensive, and crowd-sourced annotations may not be reliable. Recent work has demonstrated that learning from a distribution over labels acquired from crowd annotations can be effective both for performance and uncertainty estimation. However, this has mainly been studied using a limited set of soft-labeling methods in an in-domain setting. Additionally, no one method has been shown to consistently perform well across tasks, making it difficult to know a priori which to choose. To fill these gaps, this paper provides the first large-scale empirical study on learning from crowd labels in the out-of-domain setting, systematically analyzing 8 soft-labeling methods on 4 language and vision tasks. Additionally, we propose to aggregate soft-labels via a simple average in order to achieve consistent performance across tasks. We demonstrate that this yields classifiers with improved predictive uncertainty estimation in most settings while maintaining consistent raw performance compared to learning from individual soft-labeling methods or taking a majority vote of the annotations. We additionally highlight that in regimes with abundant or minimal training data, the selection of soft labeling method is less important, while for highly subjective labels and moderate amounts of training data, aggregation yields significant improvements in uncertainty estimation over individual methods. Code can be found at https://github.com/copenlu/aggregating-crowd-annotations-ood.

In many reasoning problems, the premises are not observed as discrete symbols, but must be inferred from high-dimensional inputs. Further, the predicate vocabulary, argument structure, and trusted evidence are supplied by a Knowledge Graph (KG), or rule definitions. Classical neuro-symbolic pipelines have a discrete interface between perception and deduction. We present a neuro-soft-symbolic architecture for differentiable deductive reasoning over latent perceptual facts and knowledge-provided predicates. SoftReason removes the gradient gap by representing the deductive state as a local soft interpretation tensor over candidate constants and predicates. Perception proposes probabilistic base facts, KG triples enter as high-confidence soft evidence, and every query anchor, predicate choice, and closure update remains differentiable. Our core innovation is a learned differentiable lift of the immediate-consequence operator. It uses predicate-definition embeddings and latent composition channels to form soft body-predicate mixtures, aggregate over all possible witnesses, propose query-conditioned head facts, and update the interpretation through a monotone probabilistic OR. We instantiate the framework on Knowledge-aware Visual Question Answering (KVQA), and demonstrates how SoftReason supports end-to-end perceptual grounding, KG evidence injection, and differentiable deductive closure in one trainable architecture.

The development of state-of-the-art (SOTA) Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems has steadily been establishing new techniques to absorb the statistics of linguistic data. These techniques often trace well-known constructs from traditional theories, and we study these connections to close gaps around key NLP methods as a means to orient future work. For this, we introduce an analytic model of the statistics learned by seminal algorithms (including GloVe and Word2Vec), and derive insights for systems that use these algorithms and the statistics of co-occurrence, in general. In this work, we derive -- to the best of our knowledge -- the first known solution to Word2Vec's softmax-optimized, skip-gram algorithm. This result presents exciting potential for future development as a direct solution to a deep learning (DL) language model's (LM's) matrix factorization. However, we use the solution to demonstrate a seemingly-universal existence of a property that word vectors exhibit and which allows for the prophylactic discernment of biases in data -- prior to their absorption by DL models. To qualify our work, we conduct an analysis of independence, i.e., on the density of statistical dependencies in co-occurrence models, which in turn renders insights on the distributional hypothesis' partial fulfillment by co-occurrence statistics.

We present a complete theoretical characterization of Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a principled framework for aggregating multiple heterogeneous evidence items in probabilistic prediction tasks. Multi-evidence reasoning arises pervasively in high-stakes domains including healthcare diagnosis, financial risk assessment, legal case analysis, and regulatory compliance, yet existing approaches either lack formal guarantees or fail to handle multi-evidence scenarios architecturally. LPF encodes each evidence item into a Gaussian latent posterior via a variational autoencoder, converting posteriors to soft factors through Monte Carlo marginalization, and aggregating factors via exact Sum-Product Network inference (LPF-SPN) or a learned neural aggregator (LPF-Learned). We prove seven formal guarantees spanning the key desiderata for trustworthy AI: Calibration Preservation (ECE <= epsilon + C/sqrt(K_eff)); Monte Carlo Error decaying as O(1/sqrt(M)); a non-vacuous PAC-Bayes bound with train-test gap of 0.0085 at N=4200; operation within 1.12x of the information-theoretic lower bound; graceful degradation as O(epsilon*delta*sqrt(K)) under corruption, maintaining 88% performance with half of evidence adversarially replaced; O(1/sqrt(K)) calibration decay with R^2=0.849; and exact epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition with error below 0.002%. All theorems are empirically validated on controlled datasets spanning up to 4,200 training examples. Our theoretical framework establishes LPF as a foundation for trustworthy multi-evidence AI in safety-critical applications.

Addressing imbalanced or long-tailed data is a major challenge in visual recognition tasks due to disparities between training and testing distributions and issues with data noise. We propose the Wrapped Cauchy Distributed Angular Softmax (WCDAS), a novel softmax function that incorporates data-wise Gaussian-based kernels into the angular correlation between feature representations and classifier weights, effectively mitigating noise and sparse sampling concerns. The class-wise distribution of angular representation becomes a sum of these kernels. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the wrapped Cauchy distribution excels the Gaussian distribution in approximating mixed distributions. Additionally, WCDAS uses trainable concentration parameters to dynamically adjust the compactness and margin of each class. Empirical results confirm label-aware behavior in these parameters and demonstrate WCDAS's superiority over other state-of-the-art softmax-based methods in handling long-tailed visual recognition across multiple benchmark datasets. The code is public available.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

We characterize the statistical efficiency of knowledge transfer through n samples from a teacher to a probabilistic student classifier with input space mathcal S over labels mathcal A. We show that privileged information at three progressive levels accelerates the transfer. At the first level, only samples with hard labels are known, via which the maximum likelihood estimator attains the minimax rate {|{mathcal S||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. The second level has the teacher probabilities of sampled labels available in addition, which turns out to boost the convergence rate lower bound to {{|{mathcal S}||{mathcal A}|}/{n}}. However, under this second data acquisition protocol, minimizing a naive adaptation of the cross-entropy loss results in an asymptotically biased student. We overcome this limitation and achieve the fundamental limit by using a novel empirical variant of the squared error logit loss. The third level further equips the student with the soft labels (complete logits) on {mathcal A} given every sampled input, thereby provably enables the student to enjoy a rate {|{mathcal S}|}/{n} free of |{mathcal A}|. We find any Kullback-Leibler divergence minimizer to be optimal in the last case. Numerical simulations distinguish the four learners and corroborate our theory.

Inspired by Regularized Lottery Ticket Hypothesis (RLTH), which states that competitive smooth (non-binary) subnetworks exist within a dense network in continual learning tasks, we investigate two proposed architecture-based continual learning methods which sequentially learn and select adaptive binary- (WSN) and non-binary Soft-Subnetworks (SoftNet) for each task. WSN and SoftNet jointly learn the regularized model weights and task-adaptive non-binary masks of subnetworks associated with each task whilst attempting to select a small set of weights to be activated (winning ticket) by reusing weights of the prior subnetworks. Our proposed WSN and SoftNet are inherently immune to catastrophic forgetting as each selected subnetwork model does not infringe upon other subnetworks in Task Incremental Learning (TIL). In TIL, binary masks spawned per winning ticket are encoded into one N-bit binary digit mask, then compressed using Huffman coding for a sub-linear increase in network capacity to the number of tasks. Surprisingly, in the inference step, SoftNet generated by injecting small noises to the backgrounds of acquired WSN (holding the foregrounds of WSN) provides excellent forward transfer power for future tasks in TIL. SoftNet shows its effectiveness over WSN in regularizing parameters to tackle the overfitting, to a few examples in Few-shot Class Incremental Learning (FSCIL).

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) face an inherent trade-off between faithfulness and creativity, as different tasks require varying degrees of associative reasoning. However, existing methods lack the flexibility to modulate this reasoning strength, limiting MLLMs' adaptability across factual and creative scenarios. To bridge this gap, we propose equipping MLLMs with mechanisms that enable flexible control over associative reasoning. We begin by investigating the internal mechanisms underlying associative behavior in MLLMs and find that: (1) middle layers play a pivotal role in shaping model's associative tendencies, (2) modifying representations in these layers effectively regulates associative reasoning strength, and (3) hallucinations can be exploited to derive steering vectors that guide this modulation. Building on these findings, we introduce Flexible Association Control (FlexAC), a lightweight and training-free framework for modulating associative behavior in MLLMs. FlexAC first induces hallucination-guided intermediate representations to encode associative directions. Then, it selects high-association instances to construct effective associative steering vectors, whose strengths are adaptively calibrated to balance creative guidance with output stability. Finally, recognizing the multi-dimensional nature of associative reasoning, FlexAC incorporates task-specific associative vectors derived from a forward pass on a few target-domain samples, enabling models to follow diverse associative directions and better adapt to creative tasks. Notably, our method achieves up to a 5.8x improvement in creativity on Creation-MMBench and a 29% reduction in hallucination rate on CHAIR, surpassing existing baselines and demonstrating its effectiveness in enabling flexible control over associative reasoning in MLLMs. Our code is available at https://github.com/ylhz/FlexAC.

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes error, and epistemic uncertainty via the size of the set. In this paper, we extend the notion of calibration, which is commonly used to evaluate the validity of the aleatoric uncertainty representation of a single probabilistic classifier, to assess the validity of an epistemic uncertainty representation obtained by sets of probabilistic classifiers. Broadly speaking, we call a set of probabilistic classifiers calibrated if one can find a calibrated convex combination of these classifiers. To evaluate this notion of calibration, we propose a novel nonparametric calibration test that generalizes an existing test for single probabilistic classifiers to the case of sets of probabilistic classifiers. Making use of this test, we empirically show that ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.

For safety, medical AI systems undergo thorough evaluations before deployment, validating their predictions against a ground truth which is assumed to be fixed and certain. However, this ground truth is often curated in the form of differential diagnoses. While a single differential diagnosis reflects the uncertainty in one expert assessment, multiple experts introduce another layer of uncertainty through disagreement. Both forms of uncertainty are ignored in standard evaluation which aggregates these differential diagnoses to a single label. In this paper, we show that ignoring uncertainty leads to overly optimistic estimates of model performance, therefore underestimating risk associated with particular diagnostic decisions. To this end, we propose a statistical aggregation approach, where we infer a distribution on probabilities of underlying medical condition candidates themselves, based on observed annotations. This formulation naturally accounts for the potential disagreements between different experts, as well as uncertainty stemming from individual differential diagnoses, capturing the entire ground truth uncertainty. Our approach boils down to generating multiple samples of medical condition probabilities, then evaluating and averaging performance metrics based on these sampled probabilities. In skin condition classification, we find that a large portion of the dataset exhibits significant ground truth uncertainty and standard evaluation severely over-estimates performance without providing uncertainty estimates. In contrast, our framework provides uncertainty estimates on common metrics of interest such as top-k accuracy and average overlap, showing that performance can change multiple percentage points. We conclude that, while assuming a crisp ground truth can be acceptable for many AI applications, a more nuanced evaluation protocol should be utilized in medical diagnosis.

The handling of probabilities in the form of uncertainty or partial information is an essential task for LLMs in many settings and applications. A common approach to evaluate an LLM's probabilistic reasoning capabilities is to assess its ability to answer questions pertaining to probability through the use of multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, this paradigm, which we refer to as explicit probabilistic reasoning, has been shown in the literature to yield significant limitations (e.g., sensitivity to answer ordering). In this work, we introduce an alternative approach, named implicit probabilistic reasoning, which evaluates the models' ability to integrate probabilistic reasoning into their text generation process. To achieve this, we rephrase MCQs as text-completion scenarios with a determined set of outcomes and compare the model's next-token probability assignments to the true likelihood of the outcomes. In line with previous work, we find that models exhibit solid performance in their explicit probabilistic reasoning (i.e., answers to MCQs). However, during text completion (i.e., implicit probabilistic reasoning), where the same information must be taken into account to generate text, the models' predictions often significantly diverge from the known ground truth. For instance, our evaluation method reveals that implicit probabilistic reasoning is improperly influenced by many factors, such as independent prior events, partial observations about a result, or statistical background information. All of these issues can cause erroneous results to be produced in text generation, which are not detected by conventional MCQ-based evaluation.

Distilling knowledge from a large teacher model to a lightweight one is a widely successful approach for generating compact, powerful models in the semi-supervised learning setting where a limited amount of labeled data is available. In large-scale applications, however, the teacher tends to provide a large number of incorrect soft-labels that impairs student performance. The sheer size of the teacher additionally constrains the number of soft-labels that can be queried due to prohibitive computational and/or financial costs. The difficulty in achieving simultaneous efficiency (i.e., minimizing soft-label queries) and robustness (i.e., avoiding student inaccuracies due to incorrect labels) hurts the widespread application of knowledge distillation to many modern tasks. In this paper, we present a parameter-free approach with provable guarantees to query the soft-labels of points that are simultaneously informative and correctly labeled by the teacher. At the core of our work lies a game-theoretic formulation that explicitly considers the inherent trade-off between the informativeness and correctness of input instances. We establish bounds on the expected performance of our approach that hold even in worst-case distillation instances. We present empirical evaluations on popular benchmarks that demonstrate the improved distillation performance enabled by our work relative to that of state-of-the-art active learning and active distillation methods.

Detecting hallucination risk before generation enables abstention, retrieval augmentation, and routing decisions without incurring the cost of decoding. While prior work has shown that such risk can be estimated from a model's internal representations, existing approaches treat this as binary classification over a single decoded output. We instead formulate it as a risk-estimation problem. Under this formulation, we introduce soft-target supervision based on the empirical answer error rate over stochastically sampled outputs - an estimator we prove to be the unique unbiased minimum-variance estimator of the model's per-prompt error probability under its sampling distribution. We further adapt attention probing to the pre-generation setting, enabling the detector to selectively aggregate hallucination-relevant prompt representations. Across three question-answering benchmarks and five models, attention probing outperforms linear probing on short-answer tasks. Replacing binary labels with soft-target supervision further and consistently improves detection quality.

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on estimating the entropy of the distribution of the LLM's potential output sequences. This estimation is based on a set of output sequences and associated probabilities obtained by querying the LLM several times. In this paper, we advocate and experimentally show that the probability of unobserved sequences plays a crucial role, and we recommend future research to integrate it to enhance such LLM uncertainty quantification methods.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Categorical distributions are ubiquitous in machine learning, e.g., in classification, language models, and recommendation systems. However, when the number of possible outcomes is very large, using categorical distributions becomes computationally expensive, as the complexity scales linearly with the number of outcomes. To address this problem, we propose augment and reduce (A&R), a method to alleviate the computational complexity. A&R uses two ideas: latent variable augmentation and stochastic variational inference. It maximizes a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Unlike existing methods which are specific to softmax, A&R is more general and is amenable to other categorical models, such as multinomial probit. On several large-scale classification problems, we show that A&R provides a tighter bound on the marginal likelihood and has better predictive performance than existing approaches.

The adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) as automated evaluators (LLM-as-a-judge) has revealed critical inconsistencies in current evaluation frameworks. We identify two fundamental types of inconsistencies: (1) Score-Comparison Inconsistency, where lower-rated responses outperform higher-scored ones in pairwise comparisons, and (2) Pairwise Transitivity Inconsistency, manifested through circular preference chains (A>B>C>A) and equivalence contradictions (A=B=C\neq A). We argue that these issues come from information loss in discrete rating systems and ambiguous tie judgments during pairwise evaluation. We propose TrustJudge, a probabilistic framework that addresses these limitations through two key innovations: 1) distribution-sensitive scoring that computes continuous expectations from discrete rating probabilities, preserving information entropy for more precise scoring, and 2) likelihood-aware aggregation that resolves transitivity violations using bidirectional preference probabilities or perplexity. We also formalize the theoretical limitations of current LLM-as-a-judge frameworks and demonstrate how TrustJudge's components overcome them. When evaluated with Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct as judge using our dataset, TrustJudge reduces Score-Comparison inconsistency by 8.43% (from 23.32% to 14.89%) and Pairwise Transitivity inconsistency by 10.82% (from 15.22% to 4.40%), while maintaining higher evaluation accuracy. Our work provides the first systematic analysis of evaluation framework inconsistencies in LLM-as-a-judge paradigms, offering both theoretical insights and practical solutions for reliable automated assessment. The framework demonstrates consistent improvements across various model architectures and scales, enabling more trustworthy LLM evaluation without requiring additional training or human annotations. The codes can be found at https://github.com/TrustJudge/TrustJudge.

Recent studies suggest that the existing neural models have difficulty handling repeated items in sequential recommendation tasks. However, our understanding of this difficulty is still limited. In this study, we substantially advance this field by identifying a major source of the problem: the single hidden state embedding and static item embeddings in the output softmax layer. Specifically, the similarity structure of the global item embeddings in the softmax layer sometimes forces the single hidden state embedding to be close to new items when copying is a better choice, while sometimes forcing the hidden state to be close to the items from the input inappropriately. To alleviate the problem, we adapt the recently-proposed softmax alternatives such as softmax-CPR to sequential recommendation tasks and demonstrate that the new softmax architectures unleash the capability of the neural encoder on learning when to copy and when to exclude the items from the input sequence. By only making some simple modifications on the output softmax layer for SASRec and GRU4Rec, softmax-CPR achieves consistent improvement in 12 datasets. With almost the same model size, our best method not only improves the average NDCG@10 of GRU4Rec in 5 datasets with duplicated items by 10% (4%-17% individually) but also improves 7 datasets without duplicated items by 24% (8%-39%)!

During the preceding biennium, vision-language pre-training has achieved noteworthy success on several downstream tasks. Nevertheless, acquiring high-quality image-text pairs, where the pairs are entirely exclusive of each other, remains a challenging task, and noise exists in the commonly used datasets. To address this issue, we propose SoftCLIP, a novel approach that relaxes the strict one-to-one constraint and achieves a soft cross-modal alignment by introducing a softened target, which is generated from the fine-grained intra-modal self-similarity. The intra-modal guidance is indicative to enable two pairs have some local similarities and model many-to-many relationships between the two modalities. Besides, since the positive still dominates in the softened target distribution, we disentangle the negatives in the distribution to further boost the relation alignment with the negatives in the cross-modal learning. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of SoftCLIP. In particular, on ImageNet zero-shot classification task, using CC3M/CC12M as pre-training dataset, SoftCLIP brings a top-1 accuracy improvement of 6.8%/7.2% over the CLIP baseline.

We reinterpret the final Large Language Model (LLM) softmax classifier as an Energy-Based Model (EBM), decomposing the sequence-to-sequence probability chain into multiple interacting EBMs at inference. This principled approach allows us to track "energy spills" during decoding, which we empirically show correlate with factual errors, biases, and failures. Similar to Orgad et al. (2025), our method localizes the exact answer token and subsequently tests for hallucinations. Crucially, however, we achieve this without requiring trained probe classifiers or activation ablations. Instead, we introduce two completely training-free metrics derived directly from output logits: spilled energy, which captures the discrepancy between energy values across consecutive generation steps that should theoretically match, and marginalized energy, which is measurable at a single step. Evaluated on nine benchmarks across state-of-the-art LLMs (including LLaMA, Mistral, and Gemma) and on synthetic algebraic operations (Qwen3), our approach demonstrates robust, competitive hallucination detection and cross-task generalization. Notably, these results hold for both pretrained and instruction-tuned variants without introducing any training overhead. Code available at: github.com/OmnAI-Lab/spilled-energy

Constantly discovering novel concepts is crucial in evolving environments. This paper explores the underexplored task of Continual Generalized Category Discovery (C-GCD), which aims to incrementally discover new classes from unlabeled data while maintaining the ability to recognize previously learned classes. Although several settings are proposed to study the C-GCD task, they have limitations that do not reflect real-world scenarios. We thus study a more practical C-GCD setting, which includes more new classes to be discovered over a longer period, without storing samples of past classes. In C-GCD, the model is initially trained on labeled data of known classes, followed by multiple incremental stages where the model is fed with unlabeled data containing both old and new classes. The core challenge involves two conflicting objectives: discover new classes and prevent forgetting old ones. We delve into the conflicts and identify that models are susceptible to prediction bias and hardness bias. To address these issues, we introduce a debiased learning framework, namely Happy, characterized by Hardness-aware prototype sampling and soft entropy regularization. For the prediction bias, we first introduce clustering-guided initialization to provide robust features. In addition, we propose soft entropy regularization to assign appropriate probabilities to new classes, which can significantly enhance the clustering performance of new classes. For the harness bias, we present the hardness-aware prototype sampling, which can effectively reduce the forgetting issue for previously seen classes, especially for difficult classes. Experimental results demonstrate our method proficiently manages the conflicts of C-GCD and achieves remarkable performance across various datasets, e.g., 7.5% overall gains on ImageNet-100. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/mashijie1028/Happy-CGCD.

We investigate composed image retrieval with text feedback. Users gradually look for the target of interest by moving from coarse to fine-grained feedback. However, existing methods merely focus on the latter, i.e., fine-grained search, by harnessing positive and negative pairs during training. This pair-based paradigm only considers the one-to-one distance between a pair of specific points, which is not aligned with the one-to-many coarse-grained retrieval process and compromises the recall rate. In an attempt to fill this gap, we introduce a unified learning approach to simultaneously modeling the coarse- and fine-grained retrieval by considering the multi-grained uncertainty. The key idea underpinning the proposed method is to integrate fine- and coarse-grained retrieval as matching data points with small and large fluctuations, respectively. Specifically, our method contains two modules: uncertainty modeling and uncertainty regularization. (1) The uncertainty modeling simulates the multi-grained queries by introducing identically distributed fluctuations in the feature space. (2) Based on the uncertainty modeling, we further introduce uncertainty regularization to adapt the matching objective according to the fluctuation range. Compared with existing methods, the proposed strategy explicitly prevents the model from pushing away potential candidates in the early stage, and thus improves the recall rate. On the three public datasets, i.e., FashionIQ, Fashion200k, and Shoes, the proposed method has achieved +4.03%, +3.38%, and +2.40% Recall@50 accuracy over a strong baseline, respectively.

Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures and convolutional or local connections between layers. Equipped with tensorized truncated variational inference, our LGMs can be efficiently trained via backpropagation on mainstream deep learning frameworks such as PyTorch. To deal with continuous valued inputs, we use a simple yet effective soft-clamping strategy for efficient inference. Through extensive experiments on image classification over MNIST and FashionMNIST datasets, we demonstrate that LGMs are capable of achieving competitive results comparable to NNs of similar architectures, while preserving transparent probabilistic modeling.

Generations from large language models (LLMs) can be improved by sampling and scoring multiple solutions to select a final answer. Current "sample and select" methods such as self-consistency (SC) rely on majority voting to score answers. However, when tasks have many distinct and valid answers, selection by voting requires a large number of samples. This makes SC prohibitively expensive for interactive tasks that involve generating multiple actions (answers) sequentially. After establishing that majority voting fails to provide consistent gains on such tasks, we demonstrate how to increase success rates by softening the scoring criterion. We introduce Soft Self-Consistency (SOFT-SC), which replaces SC's discontinuous scoring with a continuous score computed from model likelihoods, allowing for selection even when actions are sparsely distributed. SOFT-SC improves both performance and efficiency on long-horizon interactive tasks, requiring half as many samples as SC for comparable or better performance. For a fixed number of samples, SOFT-SC leads to a 1.3% increase over SC in absolute success rate on writing bash programs, a 6.6% increase on online shopping (WebShop), and a 4.7% increase for an interactive household game (ALFWorld). Finally, we show that SOFT-SC can be applied to both open-source and black-box models.

We develop a unified theoretical framework for sparse knowledge distillation based on probability-domain softening operators. While the equivalence p^{1/T} propto softmax(z/T) is well known, our contribution is an operator-level analytical framework built on this foundation rather than the equivalence itself. The framework comprises four core components: (i) operator-agnostic bias--variance decompositions that characterize when sparse students outperform dense teachers, (ii) a homotopy path formalization of multi-stage pruning in function space explaining why iterative compression succeeds where one-shot pruning fails, (iii) convergence guarantees establishing O(1/n) rates for n-stage distillation with explicit parameter dependence, and (iv) equivalence class characterizations identifying distinct probability-domain operators that yield identical student models under capacity constraints. We introduce an axiomatic definition of probability-domain softening operators based on ranking preservation, continuity, entropy monotonicity, identity, and boundary behavior, and show that multiple non-equivalent operator families satisfy these axioms. All learning-theoretic guarantees are shown to hold uniformly across this operator class, independent of implementation details. These results provide theoretical grounding for black-box teacher distillation, partial-access settings such as top-k truncation and text-only outputs, and privacy-preserving model compression.

We present Simplex Random Features (SimRFs), a new random feature (RF) mechanism for unbiased approximation of the softmax and Gaussian kernels by geometrical correlation of random projection vectors. We prove that SimRFs provide the smallest possible mean square error (MSE) on unbiased estimates of these kernels among the class of weight-independent geometrically-coupled positive random feature (PRF) mechanisms, substantially outperforming the previously most accurate Orthogonal Random Features at no observable extra cost. We present a more computationally expensive SimRFs+ variant, which we prove is asymptotically optimal in the broader family of weight-dependent geometrical coupling schemes (which permit correlations between random vector directions and norms). In extensive empirical studies, we show consistent gains provided by SimRFs in settings including pointwise kernel estimation, nonparametric classification and scalable Transformers.

We propose a new class of random feature methods for linearizing softmax and Gaussian kernels called hybrid random features (HRFs) that automatically adapt the quality of kernel estimation to provide most accurate approximation in the defined regions of interest. Special instantiations of HRFs lead to well-known methods such as trigonometric (Rahimi and Recht, 2007) or (recently introduced in the context of linear-attention Transformers) positive random features (Choromanski et al., 2021). By generalizing Bochner's Theorem for softmax/Gaussian kernels and leveraging random features for compositional kernels, the HRF-mechanism provides strong theoretical guarantees - unbiased approximation and strictly smaller worst-case relative errors than its counterparts. We conduct exhaustive empirical evaluation of HRF ranging from pointwise kernel estimation experiments, through tests on data admitting clustering structure to benchmarking implicit-attention Transformers (also for downstream Robotics applications), demonstrating its quality in a wide spectrum of machine learning problems.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

In various domains, Sequential Recommender Systems (SRS) have become essential due to their superior capability to discern intricate user preferences. Typically, SRS utilize transformer-based architectures to forecast the subsequent item within a sequence. Nevertheless, the quadratic computational complexity inherent in these models often leads to inefficiencies, hindering the achievement of real-time recommendations. Mamba, a recent advancement, has exhibited exceptional performance in time series prediction, significantly enhancing both efficiency and accuracy. However, integrating Mamba directly into SRS poses several challenges. Its inherently unidirectional nature may constrain the model's capacity to capture the full context of user-item interactions, while its instability in state estimation can compromise its ability to detect short-term patterns within interaction sequences. To overcome these issues, we introduce a new framework named Selective Gated Mamba (SIGMA) for Sequential Recommendation. This framework leverages a Partially Flipped Mamba (PF-Mamba) to construct a bidirectional architecture specifically tailored to improve contextual modeling. Additionally, an input-sensitive Dense Selective Gate (DS Gate) is employed to optimize directional weights and enhance the processing of sequential information in PF-Mamba. For short sequence modeling, we have also developed a Feature Extract GRU (FE-GRU) to efficiently capture short-term dependencies. Empirical results indicate that SIGMA outperforms current models on five real-world datasets. Our implementation code is available at https://github.com/ziwliu-cityu/SIMGA to ease reproducibility.

Human cognition naturally engages with abstract and fluid concepts, whereas existing reasoning models often rely on generating discrete tokens, potentially constraining their expressive capabilities. Recent advancements aim to address this limitation by enabling large language models (LLMs) to generate soft, abstract tokens, thus facilitating reasoning within a continuous concept space. This paper explores the `Soft Thinking' capabilities of various LLMs by examining the models' internal behavior using a suite of probing techniques. Contrary to the common belief that Soft Thinking enables the simultaneous exploration of diverse reasoning paths, our findings reveal that LLMs predominantly rely on the most influential component of the soft inputs during subsequent decoding steps. This reliance hinders the exploration of different reasoning paths and reduces vanilla Soft Thinking to a form of greedy decoding, obscuring the advantage of transmitting more information through Soft Tokens. To tackle this issue, we explore sampling strategies to introduce randomness, employing methods such as Dirichlet resampling and the Gumbel-Softmax trick. Our experiments demonstrate that incorporating randomness can alleviate the limitations of vanilla approaches and unleash the potential of Soft Thinking. Notably, the Gumbel-Softmax trick provides adequate randomness with controlled smoothness, resulting in superior performance across eight reasoning benchmarks.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Recent advances in diffusion models bring state-of-the-art performance on image generation tasks. However, empirical results from previous research in diffusion models imply an inverse correlation between density estimation and sample generation performances. This paper investigates with sufficient empirical evidence that such inverse correlation happens because density estimation is significantly contributed by small diffusion time, whereas sample generation mainly depends on large diffusion time. However, training a score network well across the entire diffusion time is demanding because the loss scale is significantly imbalanced at each diffusion time. For successful training, therefore, we introduce Soft Truncation, a universally applicable training technique for diffusion models, that softens the fixed and static truncation hyperparameter into a random variable. In experiments, Soft Truncation achieves state-of-the-art performance on CIFAR-10, CelebA, CelebA-HQ 256x256, and STL-10 datasets.

In the real world, the frequency of occurrence of objects is naturally skewed forming long-tail class distributions, which results in poor performance on the statistically rare classes. A promising solution is to mine tail-class examples to balance the training dataset. However, mining tail-class examples is a very challenging task. For instance, most of the otherwise successful uncertainty-based mining approaches struggle due to distortion of class probabilities resulting from skewness in data. In this work, we propose an effective, yet simple, approach to overcome these challenges. Our framework enhances the subdued tail-class activations and, thereafter, uses a one-class data-centric approach to effectively identify tail-class examples. We carry out an exhaustive evaluation of our framework on three datasets spanning over two computer vision tasks. Substantial improvements in the minority-class mining and fine-tuned model's performance strongly corroborate the value of our proposed solution.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

Uncertainty estimation is a promising approach to detect hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). Recent approaches commonly depend on model internal states to estimate uncertainty. However, they suffer from strict assumptions on how hidden states should evolve across layers, and from information loss by solely focusing on last or mean tokens. To address these issues, we present Sequential Internal Variance Representation (SIVR), a supervised hallucination detection framework that leverages token-wise, layer-wise features derived from hidden states. SIVR adopts a more basic assumption that uncertainty manifests in the degree of dispersion or variance of internal representations across layers, rather than relying on specific assumptions, which makes the method model and task agnostic. It additionally aggregates the full sequence of per-token variance features, learning temporal patterns indicative of factual errors and thereby preventing information loss. Experimental results demonstrate SIVR consistently outperforms strong baselines. Most importantly, SIVR enjoys stronger generalisation and avoids relying on large training sets, highlighting the potential for practical deployment. Our code repository is available online at https://github.com/ponhvoan/internal-variance.

Value-model-free RLVR methods such as GRPO assign uniform advantages to all tokens in a rollout, ignoring that tokens contribute unequally. Recent methods use token entropy as an importance proxy but compute it globally across the batch, conflating importance with prompt difficulty and positional trends. We argue that importance should instead be measured relative to the local context of each token. We introduce proximal entropy, a local measure of token importance relative to neighboring tokens, and prove it is invariant to both confounders. Proximal Entropy Policy Optimization (PEPO) uses it to weight per-token advantages and outperforms GRPO and entropy-based baselines on mathematical reasoning across Qwen3-1.7B, Qwen3-4B, and Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct. We also show the formulation generalizes to other algorithms where substituting proximal entropy into existing methods improves, and applying it to single-stream RL succeeds where global entropy fails.

Scholars studying organizations often work with multiple datasets lacking shared unique identifiers or covariates. In such situations, researchers may turn to approximate string matching methods to combine datasets. String matching, although useful, faces fundamental challenges. Even when two strings appear similar to humans, fuzzy matching often does not work because it fails to adapt to the informativeness of the character combinations presented. Worse, many entities have multiple names that are dissimilar (e.g., "Fannie Mae" and "Federal National Mortgage Association"), a case where string matching has little hope of succeeding. This paper introduces data from a prominent employment-related networking site (LinkedIn) as a tool to address these problems. We propose interconnected approaches to leveraging the massive amount of information from LinkedIn regarding organizational name-to-name links. The first approach builds a machine learning model for predicting matches from character strings, treating the trillions of user-contributed organizational name pairs as a training corpus: this approach constructs a string matching metric that explicitly maximizes match probabilities. A second approach identifies relationships between organization names using network representations of the LinkedIn data. A third approach combines the first and second. We document substantial improvements over fuzzy matching in applications, making all methods accessible in open-source software ("LinkOrgs").

Masked language models (MLM) do not explicitly define a distribution over language, i.e., they are not language models per se. However, recent work has implicitly treated them as such for the purposes of generation and scoring. This paper studies methods for deriving explicit joint distributions from MLMs, focusing on distributions over two tokens, which makes it possible to calculate exact distributional properties. We find that an approach based on identifying joints whose conditionals are closest to those of the MLM works well and outperforms existing Markov random field-based approaches. We further find that this derived model's conditionals can even occasionally outperform the original MLM's conditionals.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Neural networks are known to produce poor uncertainty estimations, and a variety of approaches have been proposed to remedy this issue. This includes deep ensemble, a simple and effective method that achieves state-of-the-art results for uncertainty-aware learning tasks. In this work, we explore a combinatorial generalization of deep ensemble called deep combinatorial aggregation (DCA). DCA creates multiple instances of network components and aggregates their combinations to produce diversified model proposals and predictions. DCA components can be defined at different levels of granularity. And we discovered that coarse-grain DCAs can outperform deep ensemble for uncertainty-aware learning both in terms of predictive performance and uncertainty estimation. For fine-grain DCAs, we discover that an average parameterization approach named deep combinatorial weight averaging (DCWA) can improve the baseline training. It is on par with stochastic weight averaging (SWA) but does not require any custom training schedule or adaptation of BatchNorm layers. Furthermore, we propose a consistency enforcing loss that helps the training of DCWA and modelwise DCA. We experiment on in-domain, distributional shift, and out-of-distribution image classification tasks, and empirically confirm the effectiveness of DCWA and DCA approaches.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

Being probabilistic models, during inference large language models (LLMs) display rare events: behaviour that is far from typical but highly significant. By definition all rare events are hard to see, but the enormous scale of LLM usage means that events completely unobserved during development are likely to become prominent in deployment. Here we present an end-to-end framework for the systematic analysis of rare events in LLMs. We provide a practical implementation spanning theory, efficient generation strategies, probability estimation and error analysis, which we illustrate with concrete examples. We outline extensions and applications to other models and contexts, highlighting the generality of the concepts and techniques presented here.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

Multitask Gaussian process (MTGP) is powerful for joint learning of multiple tasks with complicated correlation patterns. However, due to the assembling of additive independent latent functions, all current MTGPs including the salient linear model of coregionalization (LMC) and convolution frameworks cannot effectively represent and learn the hierarchical latent interactions between its latent functions. In this paper, we further investigate the interactions in LMC of MTGP and then propose a novel kernel representation of the hierarchical interactions, which ameliorates both the expressiveness and the interpretability of MTGP. Specifically, we express the interaction as a product of function interaction and coefficient interaction. The function interaction is modeled by using cross convolution of latent functions. The coefficient interaction between the LMCs is described as a cross coregionalization term. We validate that considering the interactions can promote knowledge transferring in MTGP and compare our approach with some state-of-the-art MTGPs on both synthetic- and real-world datasets.

While pre-trained language models (PLMs) are the go-to solution to tackle many natural language processing problems, they are still very limited in their ability to capture and to use common-sense knowledge. In fact, even if information is available in the form of approximate (soft) logical rules, it is not clear how to transfer it to a PLM in order to improve its performance for deductive reasoning tasks. Here, we aim to bridge this gap by teaching PLMs how to reason with soft Horn rules. We introduce a classification task where, given facts and soft rules, the PLM should return a prediction with a probability for a given hypothesis. We release the first dataset for this task, and we propose a revised loss function that enables the PLM to learn how to predict precise probabilities for the task. Our evaluation results show that the resulting fine-tuned models achieve very high performance, even on logical rules that were unseen at training. Moreover, we demonstrate that logical notions expressed by the rules are transferred to the fine-tuned model, yielding state-of-the-art results on external datasets.

Softmax Loss (SL) is widely applied in recommender systems (RS) and has demonstrated effectiveness. This work analyzes SL from a pairwise perspective, revealing two significant limitations: 1) the relationship between SL and conventional ranking metrics like DCG is not sufficiently tight; 2) SL is highly sensitive to false negative instances. Our analysis indicates that these limitations are primarily due to the use of the exponential function. To address these issues, this work extends SL to a new family of loss functions, termed Pairwise Softmax Loss (PSL), which replaces the exponential function in SL with other appropriate activation functions. While the revision is minimal, we highlight three merits of PSL: 1) it serves as a tighter surrogate for DCG with suitable activation functions; 2) it better balances data contributions; and 3) it acts as a specific BPR loss enhanced by Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO). We further validate the effectiveness and robustness of PSL through empirical experiments. The code is available at https://github.com/Tiny-Snow/IR-Benchmark.

In this article, we introduce a neuro-symbolic approach that combines a low-level perception task performed by a neural network with a high-level reasoning task performed by a possibilistic rule-based system. The goal is to be able to derive for each input instance the degree of possibility that it belongs to a target (meta-)concept. This (meta-)concept is connected to intermediate concepts by a possibilistic rule-based system. The probability of each intermediate concept for the input instance is inferred using a neural network. The connection between the low-level perception task and the high-level reasoning task lies in the transformation of neural network outputs modeled by probability distributions (through softmax activation) into possibility distributions. The use of intermediate concepts is valuable for the explanation purpose: using the rule-based system, the classification of an input instance as an element of the (meta-)concept can be justified by the fact that intermediate concepts have been recognized. From the technical side, our contribution consists of the design of efficient methods for defining the matrix relation and the equation system associated with a possibilistic rule-based system. The corresponding matrix and equation are key data structures used to perform inferences from a possibilistic rule-based system and to learn the values of the rule parameters in such a system according to a training data sample. Furthermore, leveraging recent results on the handling of inconsistent systems of fuzzy relational equations, an approach for learning rule parameters according to multiple training data samples is presented. Experiments carried out on the MNIST addition problems and the MNIST Sudoku puzzles problems highlight the effectiveness of our approach compared with state-of-the-art neuro-symbolic ones.

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated, leading to large prediction sets in conformal prediction. To address this issue, we propose a novel algorithm named Sorted Adaptive Prediction Sets (SAPS), which discards all the probability values except for the maximum softmax probability. The key idea behind SAPS is to minimize the dependence of the non-conformity score on the probability values while retaining the uncertainty information. In this manner, SAPS can produce compact prediction sets and communicate instance-wise uncertainty. Extensive experiments validate that SAPS not only lessens the prediction sets but also broadly enhances the conditional coverage rate of prediction sets.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) commonly perform spatial reasoning through chain-of-thought (CoT), encoding intermediate reasoning as autoregressive sequences of discrete language tokens. Such hard thinking requires committing to a single token at each step, even when the correct spatial interpretation remains uncertain. This early commitment constitutes premature discretization: an incorrect token selection can propagate errors through subsequent reasoning. We propose Soft Spatial Reasoning, a post-training framework that introduces soft thinking for spatial tasks in LVLMs. At each intermediate reasoning step, the LVLM forms a continuous soft state by mixing token embeddings rather than selecting a single token, allowing multiple candidate continuations to influence the next step. The appropriate degree of softness, however, can vary across reasoning steps: retaining multiple candidates may preserve a useful spatial interpretation, but if those candidates imply conflicting spatial relations, mixing them may interfere with subsequent reasoning. At the core of Soft Spatial Reasoning is AdaptSoft, a controller that uses the current hidden state and predictive uncertainty to adapt the degree of softness at each reasoning step. To train AdaptSoft, we introduce a gradient-alignment learning objective that provides a step-specific learning signal for softness control without intermediate reasoning supervision. Across diverse spatial benchmarks, Soft Spatial Reasoning outperforms hard and fixed-soft CoT baselines using the same backbone, as well as a range of existing LVLMs. The source code is available at https://github.com/rafiibnsultan/Soft_Spatial_Reasoning

The "maximum similarity correlation" definition introduced in this study is motivated by the seminal work of Szekely et al on "distance covariance" (Ann. Statist. 2007, 35: 2769-2794; Ann. Appl. Stat. 2009, 3: 1236-1265). Instead of using Euclidean distances "d" as in Szekely et al, we use "similarity", which can be defined as "exp(-d/s)", where the scaling parameter s>0 controls how rapidly the similarity falls off with distance. Scale parameters are chosen by maximizing the similarity correlation. The motivation for using "similarity" originates in spectral clustering theory (see e.g. Ng et al 2001, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 14: 849-856). We show that a particular form of similarity correlation is asymptotically equivalent to distance correlation for large values of the scale parameter. Furthermore, we extend similarity correlation to coherence between complex valued vectors, including its partitioning into real and imaginary contributions. Several toy examples are used for comparing distance and similarity correlations. For instance, points on a noiseless straight line give distance and similarity correlation values equal to 1; but points on a noiseless circle produces near zero distance correlation (dCorr=0.02) while the similarity correlation is distinctly non zero (sCorr=0.36). In distinction to the distance approach, similarity gives more importance to small distances, which emphasizes the local properties of functional relations. This paper represents a preliminary empirical study, showing that the novel similarity association has some distinct practical advantages over distance based association.For the sake of reproducible research, the software code implementing all methods here (using lazarus free-pascal "www.lazarus.freepascal.org"), including all test data, are freely available at: "sites.google.com/site/pascualmarqui/home/similaritycovariance".

Diffusion language models (DLMs) enable parallel generation by predicting and committing multiple tokens at each denoising step, yet they can generate individually plausible but mutually inconsistent tokens. Recent work shows that soft tokens can mitigate this issue by representing uncertain positions with continuous embeddings built from the model's predictive distribution at the previous decoding step. However, although soft tokens are commonly understood as preserving predictive uncertainty, how soft-token feedback improves parallel decoding has not been systematically examined. In this paper, we investigate this question in frozen pretrained DLMs to examine soft-token feedback without the effects of additional training. To construct soft-token inputs in a training-free setting, we identify a geometric mismatch between conventional soft-token construction and the pretrained embedding space. Based on this observation, we propose a training-free, geometry-aware construction of soft tokens. Our analysis of soft-token feedback suggests that uncertainty preservation alone does not fully explain how it reshapes subsequent predictions. To better explain how soft-token feedback improves parallel decoding, we provide empirical evidence that it favors coherent token sequences. Across four pretrained DLMs and four math and code benchmarks, our method outperforms standard parallel decoding and a training-free Euclidean soft-token baseline. Code: https://github.com/kodaikawamura/rethinking-soft-tokens

Energy-Based Models (EBMs), also known as non-normalized probabilistic models, specify probability density or mass functions up to an unknown normalizing constant. Unlike most other probabilistic models, EBMs do not place a restriction on the tractability of the normalizing constant, thus are more flexible to parameterize and can model a more expressive family of probability distributions. However, the unknown normalizing constant of EBMs makes training particularly difficult. Our goal is to provide a friendly introduction to modern approaches for EBM training. We start by explaining maximum likelihood training with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and proceed to elaborate on MCMC-free approaches, including Score Matching (SM) and Noise Constrastive Estimation (NCE). We highlight theoretical connections among these three approaches, and end with a brief survey on alternative training methods, which are still under active research. Our tutorial is targeted at an audience with basic understanding of generative models who want to apply EBMs or start a research project in this direction.

Most applications of machine learning to classification assume a closed set of balanced classes. This is at odds with the real world, where class occurrence statistics often follow a long-tailed power-law distribution and it is unlikely that all classes are seen in a single sample. Nonparametric Bayesian models naturally capture this phenomenon, but have significant practical barriers to widespread adoption, namely implementation complexity and computational inefficiency. To address this, we present a method for extracting the inductive bias from a nonparametric Bayesian model and transferring it to an artificial neural network. By simulating data with a nonparametric Bayesian prior, we can metalearn a sequence model that performs inference over an unlimited set of classes. After training, this "neural circuit" has distilled the corresponding inductive bias and can successfully perform sequential inference over an open set of classes. Our experimental results show that the metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods for inference in these models while being faster and simpler to use than methods that explicitly incorporate Bayesian nonparametric inference.

Categorical variables are a natural choice for representing discrete structure in the world. However, stochastic neural networks rarely use categorical latent variables due to the inability to backpropagate through samples. In this work, we present an efficient gradient estimator that replaces the non-differentiable sample from a categorical distribution with a differentiable sample from a novel Gumbel-Softmax distribution. This distribution has the essential property that it can be smoothly annealed into a categorical distribution. We show that our Gumbel-Softmax estimator outperforms state-of-the-art gradient estimators on structured output prediction and unsupervised generative modeling tasks with categorical latent variables, and enables large speedups on semi-supervised classification.

We consider the problem of weakly supervised object detection, where the training samples are annotated using only image-level labels that indicate the presence or absence of an object category. In order to model the uncertainty in the location of the objects, we employ a dissimilarity coefficient based probabilistic learning objective. The learning objective minimizes the difference between an annotation agnostic prediction distribution and an annotation aware conditional distribution. The main computational challenge is the complex nature of the conditional distribution, which consists of terms over hundreds or thousands of variables. The complexity of the conditional distribution rules out the possibility of explicitly modeling it. Instead, we exploit the fact that deep learning frameworks rely on stochastic optimization. This allows us to use a state of the art discrete generative model that can provide annotation consistent samples from the conditional distribution. Extensive experiments on PASCAL VOC 2007 and 2012 data sets demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach.

Users of music streaming, video streaming, news recommendation, and e-commerce services often engage with content in a sequential manner. Providing and evaluating good sequences of recommendations is therefore a central problem for these services. Prior reweighting-based counterfactual evaluation methods either suffer from high variance or make strong independence assumptions about rewards. We propose a new counterfactual estimator that allows for sequential interactions in the rewards with lower variance in an asymptotically unbiased manner. Our method uses graphical assumptions about the causal relationships of the slate to reweight the rewards in the logging policy in a way that approximates the expected sum of rewards under the target policy. Extensive experiments in simulation and on a live recommender system show that our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of bias and data efficiency for the sequential track recommendations problem.

Vision-language models (VLMs) embed aligned image-text pairs into a joint space but often rely on deterministic embeddings, assuming a one-to-one correspondence between images and texts. This oversimplifies real-world relationships, which are inherently many-to-many, with multiple captions describing a single image and vice versa. We introduce Probabilistic Language-Image Pre-training (ProLIP), the first probabilistic VLM pre-trained on a billion-scale image-text dataset using only probabilistic objectives, achieving a strong zero-shot capability (e.g., 74.6% ImageNet zero-shot accuracy with ViT-B/16). ProLIP efficiently estimates uncertainty by an "uncertainty token" without extra parameters. We also introduce a novel inclusion loss that enforces distributional inclusion relationships between image-text pairs and between original and masked inputs. Experiments demonstrate that, by leveraging uncertainty estimates, ProLIP benefits downstream tasks and aligns with intuitive notions of uncertainty, e.g., shorter texts being more uncertain and more general inputs including specific ones. Utilizing text uncertainties, we further improve ImageNet accuracy from 74.6% to 75.8% (under a few-shot setting), supporting the practical advantages of our probabilistic approach. The code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/prolip

Autoregressive models (ARMs) currently constitute the dominant paradigm for large language models (LLMs). Energy-based models (EBMs) represent another class of models, which have historically been less prevalent in LLM development, yet naturally characterize the optimal policy in post-training alignment. In this paper, we provide a unified view of these two model classes. Taking the chain rule of probability as a starting point, we establish an explicit bijection between ARMs and EBMs in function space, which we show to correspond to a special case of the soft Bellman equation in maximum entropy reinforcement learning. Building upon this bijection, we derive the equivalence between supervised learning of ARMs and EBMs. Furthermore, we analyze the distillation of EBMs into ARMs by providing theoretical error bounds. Our results provide insights into the ability of ARMs to plan ahead, despite being based on the next-token prediction paradigm.

SoftMax is a ubiquitous ingredient of modern machine learning algorithms. It maps an input vector onto a probability simplex and reweights the input by concentrating the probability mass at large entries. Yet, as a smooth approximation to the Argmax function, a significant amount of probability mass is distributed to other, residual entries, leading to poor interpretability and noise. Although sparsity can be achieved by a family of SoftMax variants, they often require an alternative loss function and do not preserve multi-modality. We show that this trade-off between multi-modality and sparsity limits the expressivity of SoftMax as well as its variants. We provide a solution to this tension between objectives by proposing a piece-wise differentiable function, termed MultiMax, which adaptively modulates the output distribution according to input entry range. Through comprehensive analysis and evaluation, we show that MultiMax successfully produces a distribution that supresses irrelevant entries while preserving multimodality, with benefits in image classification, language modeling and machine translation. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhouYuxuanYX/MultiMax.

As large language models (LMs) advance, there is an increasing need to control their outputs to align with human values (e.g., detoxification) or desired attributes (e.g., personalization, topic). However, autoregressive models focus on next-token predictions and struggle with global properties that require looking ahead. Existing solutions either tune or post-train LMs for each new attribute - expensive and inflexible - or approximate the Expected Attribute Probability (EAP) of future sequences by sampling or training, which is slow and unreliable for rare attributes. We introduce TRACE (Tractable Probabilistic Reasoning for Adaptable Controllable gEneration), a novel framework that efficiently computes EAP and adapts to new attributes through tractable probabilistic reasoning and lightweight control. TRACE distills a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) from an LM and pairs it with a small classifier to estimate attribute probabilities, enabling exact EAP computation over the HMM's predicted futures. This EAP is then used to reweigh the LM's next-token probabilities for globally compliant continuations. Empirically, TRACE achieves state-of-the-art results in detoxification with only 10% decoding overhead, adapts to 76 low-resource personalized LLMs within seconds, and seamlessly extends to composite attributes.

While semi-supervised learning (SSL) has yielded promising results, the more realistic SSL scenario remains to be explored, in which the unlabeled data exhibits extremely high recognition difficulty, e.g., fine-grained visual classification in the context of SSL (SS-FGVC). The increased recognition difficulty on fine-grained unlabeled data spells disaster for pseudo-labeling accuracy, resulting in poor performance of the SSL model. To tackle this challenge, we propose Soft Label Selection with Confidence-Aware Clustering based on Class Transition Tracking (SoC) by reconstructing the pseudo-label selection process by jointly optimizing Expansion Objective and Shrinkage Objective, which is based on a soft label manner. Respectively, the former objective encourages soft labels to absorb more candidate classes to ensure the attendance of ground-truth class, while the latter encourages soft labels to reject more noisy classes, which is theoretically proved to be equivalent to entropy minimization. In comparisons with various state-of-the-art methods, our approach demonstrates its superior performance in SS-FGVC. Checkpoints and source code are available at https://github.com/NJUyued/SoC4SS-FGVC.

The field of Explainable AI (XAI) is seeking to shed light on the inner workings of complex AI models and uncover the rationale behind their decisions. One of the models gaining attention are probabilistic circuits (PCs), which are a general and unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries. Probabilistic circuits guarantee inference that is polynomial in the size of the circuit. In this paper, we improve the explainability of probabilistic circuits by computing a comprehensible, readable logical theory that covers the high-density regions generated by a PC. To achieve this, pruning approaches based on generative significance are used in a new method called PUTPUT (Probabilistic circuit Understanding Through Pruning Underlying logical Theories). The method is applied to a real world use case where music playlists are automatically generated and expressed as readable (database) queries. Evaluation shows that this approach can effectively produce a comprehensible logical theory that describes the high-density regions of a PC and outperforms state of the art methods when exploring the performance-comprehensibility trade-off.

We study the problem of combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning. Recently introduced frameworks for Probabilistic Neurosymbolic Learning (PNL), such as DeepProbLog, perform exponential-time exact inference, limiting the scalability of PNL solutions. We introduce Approximate Neurosymbolic Inference (A-NeSI): a new framework for PNL that uses neural networks for scalable approximate inference. A-NeSI 1) performs approximate inference in polynomial time without changing the semantics of probabilistic logics; 2) is trained using data generated by the background knowledge; 3) can generate symbolic explanations of predictions; and 4) can guarantee the satisfaction of logical constraints at test time, which is vital in safety-critical applications. Our experiments show that A-NeSI is the first end-to-end method to solve three neurosymbolic tasks with exponential combinatorial scaling. Finally, our experiments show that A-NeSI achieves explainability and safety without a penalty in performance.

Hallucinations in Large Language Model (LLM) outputs for Question Answering (QA) tasks can critically undermine their real-world reliability. This paper introduces a methodology for robust, one-shot hallucination detection, specifically designed for scenarios with limited data access, such as interacting with black-box LLM APIs that typically expose only a few top candidate log-probabilities per token. Our approach derives uncertainty indicators directly from these readily available log-probabilities generated during non-greedy decoding. We first derive an Entropy Production Rate (EPR) that offers baseline performance, later augmented with supervised learning. Our learned model leverages the entropic contributions of the accessible top-ranked tokens within a single generated sequence, without multiple re-runs per query. Evaluated across diverse QA datasets and multiple LLMs, this estimator significantly improves token-level hallucination detection over state-of-the-art methods. Crucially, high performance is demonstrated using only the typically small set of available log-probabilities (e.g., top-10 per token), confirming its practical efficiency and suitability for API-constrained deployments. This work provides a lightweight technique to enhance the trustworthiness of LLM responses, at the token level, after a single generation pass, for QA and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Our experiments confirmed the performance of our method against existing approaches on public dataset as well as for a financial framework analyzing annual company reports.

In-context learning is commonly interpreted as a form of conditional inference, in which the prompt specifies a context and the model's output is treated as an estimate of the corresponding conditional distribution. If this interpretation holds, then LLM estimates should satisfy basic probabilistic identities. In particular, the law of total probability asserts that prior-weighted conditional distributions aggregate into population-level marginals over any valid partition of the population. In this work, we investigate to what extent LLM estimates adhere to this self-consistency principle. We use binary trees as an evaluation scaffold to recursively partition a population into increasingly fine-grained subpopulations. We then prompt LLMs with verbalized subpopulation descriptions in context, aggregate the resulting estimates back into population-level estimates, and compare them across partitions of varying granularity. Applying this protocol across problem domains and state-of-the-art frontier models, we show widespread violations of basic consistency properties. An in-depth study of persona prompting reveals a pattern we call the macro fallacy: estimates reconstructed from more fine-grained subpopulation responses are often better aligned with human reference data than direct population-level estimates. This effect persists across variations in tree structure and estimation task, and can be partially recovered through implicit prompting. Together, these findings suggest that models possess relevant subpopulation knowledge but do not reliably propagate it into aggregate estimates. This gap establishes statistical self-consistency as an unsaturated, reference-free criterion for evaluating LLMs.

Unlike human reasoning in abstract conceptual spaces, large language models (LLMs) typically reason by generating discrete tokens, which potentially limit their expressive power. The recent work Soft Thinking has shown that LLMs' latent reasoning via soft concepts is a promising direction, but LLMs are trained on discrete tokens. To reduce this gap between the soft concepts in reasoning and the discrete tokens in training, we propose Soft Concept Mixing (SCM), a soft concept aware training scheme that directly exposes the model to soft representations during training. Specifically, SCM constructs a soft concept vector by forming a probability-weighted average of embeddings. Then, this vector is mixed into the model's hidden states, which embody rich contextual information. Finally, the entire latent reasoning process is optimized with Reinforcement Learning (RL). Experiments on five reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that SCM improves the reasoning performance of LLMs, and simultaneously maintains a stable training dynamic.

Happiness computing based on large-scale online web data and machine learning methods is an emerging research topic that underpins a range of issues, from personal growth to social stability. Many advanced Machine Learning (ML) models with explanations are used to compute the happiness online assessment while maintaining high accuracy of results. However, domain knowledge constraints, such as the primary and secondary relations of happiness factors, are absent from these models, which limits the association between computing results and the right reasons for why they occurred. This article attempts to provide new insights into the explanation consistency from an empirical study perspective. Then we study how to represent and introduce domain knowledge constraints to make ML models more trustworthy. We achieve this through: (1) proving that multiple prediction models with additive factor attributions will have the desirable property of primary and secondary relations consistency, and (2) showing that factor relations with quantity can be represented as an importance distribution for encoding domain knowledge. Factor explanation difference is penalized by the Kullback-Leibler divergence-based loss among computing models. Experimental results using two online web datasets show that domain knowledge of stable factor relations exists. Using this knowledge not only improves happiness computing accuracy but also reveals more significative happiness factors for assisting decisions well.

Accurate uncertainty estimates are essential for deploying deep object detectors in safety-critical systems. The development and evaluation of probabilistic object detectors have been hindered by shortcomings in existing performance measures, which tend to involve arbitrary thresholds or limit the detector's choice of distributions. In this work, we propose to view object detection as a set prediction task where detectors predict the distribution over the set of objects. Using the negative log-likelihood for random finite sets, we present a proper scoring rule for evaluating and training probabilistic object detectors. The proposed method can be applied to existing probabilistic detectors, is free from thresholds, and enables fair comparison between architectures. Three different types of detectors are evaluated on the COCO dataset. Our results indicate that the training of existing detectors is optimized toward non-probabilistic metrics. We hope to encourage the development of new object detectors that can accurately estimate their own uncertainty. Code available at https://github.com/georghess/pmb-nll.

Search agents repeatedly make short decisions about relevance, evidence sufficiency, and search actions. Using generative language models for these decisions introduces latency and unreliable confidence. We present SearchJev, a fast and calibrated System-1 model that separates search decisions from System-2 reasoning and generation. Given a search state and a decision schema, SearchJev directly scores legal options without autoregressive output generation. We propose Soft-Label Learning for Calibrated Decisions (SLCD) to learn decision probabilities from uncertain supervision and calibrate their confidence. In a dual-system search agent, SearchJev handles short decisions and delegates uncertain judgments to System 2, which retains planning, query generation, and answer composition. We also introduce SearchDecision-Bench, a benchmark unifying six types of search decisions for training and evaluation. On SearchDecision-Bench, SEARCHJEV improves decision quality over same-size Qwen3.5 autoregressive models, achieves 5.2-5.3 times faster decisions, and reduces average expected calibration error by 41-74%. On BrowseComp-Plus, the dual-system agents achieve a 3.7-4.7 times speedup in active search time while improving answer accuracy from 45% to up to 54%.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation (SSSS) faces persistent challenges in effectively leveraging unlabeled data, such as ineffective utilization of pseudo-labels, exacerbation of class imbalance biases, and neglect of prediction uncertainty. Current approaches often discard uncertain regions through strict thresholding favouring dominant classes. To address these limitations, we introduce a holistic framework that transforms uncertainty into a learning asset through four principal components: (1) fuzzy pseudo-labeling, which preserves soft class distributions from top-K predictions to enrich supervision; (2) uncertainty-aware dynamic weighting, that modulate pixel-wise contributions via entropy-based reliability scores; (3) adaptive class rebalancing, which dynamically adjust losses to counteract long-tailed class distributions; and (4) lightweight contrastive regularization, that encourage compact and discriminative feature embeddings. Extensive experiments on benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches, achieving significant improvements in the segmentation of under-represented classes and ambiguous regions.

Learning neural subset selection tasks, such as compound selection in AI-aided drug discovery, have become increasingly pivotal across diverse applications. The existing methodologies in the field primarily concentrate on constructing models that capture the relationship between utility function values and subsets within their respective supersets. However, these approaches tend to overlook the valuable information contained within the superset when utilizing neural networks to model set functions. In this work, we address this oversight by adopting a probabilistic perspective. Our theoretical findings demonstrate that when the target value is conditioned on both the input set and subset, it is essential to incorporate an invariant sufficient statistic of the superset into the subset of interest for effective learning. This ensures that the output value remains invariant to permutations of the subset and its corresponding superset, enabling identification of the specific superset from which the subset originated. Motivated by these insights, we propose a simple yet effective information aggregation module designed to merge the representations of subsets and supersets from a permutation invariance perspective. Comprehensive empirical evaluations across diverse tasks and datasets validate the enhanced efficacy of our approach over conventional methods, underscoring the practicality and potency of our proposed strategies in real-world contexts.

The framework of reinforcement learning or optimal control provides a mathematical formalization of intelligent decision making that is powerful and broadly applicable. While the general form of the reinforcement learning problem enables effective reasoning about uncertainty, the connection between reinforcement learning and inference in probabilistic models is not immediately obvious. However, such a connection has considerable value when it comes to algorithm design: formalizing a problem as probabilistic inference in principle allows us to bring to bear a wide array of approximate inference tools, extend the model in flexible and powerful ways, and reason about compositionality and partial observability. In this article, we will discuss how a generalization of the reinforcement learning or optimal control problem, which is sometimes termed maximum entropy reinforcement learning, is equivalent to exact probabilistic inference in the case of deterministic dynamics, and variational inference in the case of stochastic dynamics. We will present a detailed derivation of this framework, overview prior work that has drawn on this and related ideas to propose new reinforcement learning and control algorithms, and describe perspectives on future research.

LLM agents that operate over long context depend on external memory to accumulate knowledge over time. However, existing methods typically store each observation as a single deterministic conclusion (e.g., inferring "API~X failed" from temporary errors), even though such observations are inherently partial and potentially ambiguous. By committing to one conclusion and discarding uncertainty, these methods introduce self-reinforcing error: the agent acts on the stored conclusion, never revisits alternatives, and reinforces the conclusion over time. To address this issue, we propose BeliefMem, which shifts the memory paradigm from committing to a single conclusion per observation to retaining multiple candidate conclusions with their probabilities. Concretely, BeliefMem stores the candidate conclusions as separate memory entries, each carrying a probability that is updated via Noisy-OR rules as new observations arrive. At retrieval, all candidates surface together with their probabilities, keeping alternatives visible to the agent. Since each conclusion in memory retains its probability, BeliefMem preserves the uncertainty that the deterministic paradigm discards, enabling the agent to act with high confidence on well-evidenced knowledge while retaining the capacity to update its confidence when new evidence arrives. Empirical evaluations on LoCoMo and ALFWorld benchmarks show that, even with limited data, BeliefMem achieves the best average performance, remarkably outperforming well-known baselines. More broadly, such probabilistic memory produces substantial gains and explores a new direction for agent memory in partially observable environments.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Recently, a race towards the simplification of deep networks has begun, showing that it is effectively possible to reduce the size of these models with minimal or no performance loss. However, there is a general lack in understanding why these pruning strategies are effective. In this work, we are going to compare and analyze pruned solutions with two different pruning approaches, one-shot and gradual, showing the higher effectiveness of the latter. In particular, we find that gradual pruning allows access to narrow, well-generalizing minima, which are typically ignored when using one-shot approaches. In this work we also propose PSP-entropy, a measure to understand how a given neuron correlates to some specific learned classes. Interestingly, we observe that the features extracted by iteratively-pruned models are less correlated to specific classes, potentially making these models a better fit in transfer learning approaches.

Semantic ID (SID)-based recommendation is a promising paradigm for scaling sequential recommender systems, but existing methods largely follow a semantic-centric pipeline: item embeddings are learned from foundation models and discretized using generic quantization schemes. This design is misaligned with generative recommendation objectives: semantic embeddings are weakly coupled with collaborative prediction, and generic quantization is inefficient at reducing sequential uncertainty for autoregressive modeling. To address these, we propose ReSID, a recommendation-native, principled SID framework that rethinks representation learning and quantization from the perspective of information preservation and sequential predictability, without relying on LLMs. ReSID consists of two components: (i) Field-Aware Masked Auto-Encoding (FAMAE), which learns predictive-sufficient item representations from structured features, and (ii) Globally Aligned Orthogonal Quantization (GAOQ), which produces compact and predictable SID sequences by jointly reducing semantic ambiguity and prefix-conditional uncertainty. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments across ten datasets show the effectiveness of ReSID. ReSID consistently outperforms strong sequential and SID-based generative baselines by an average of over 10%, while reducing tokenization cost by up to 122x. Code is available at https://github.com/FuCongResearchSquad/ReSID.

Deep neural networks are often seen as different from other model classes by defying conventional notions of generalization. Popular examples of anomalous generalization behaviour include benign overfitting, double descent, and the success of overparametrization. We argue that these phenomena are not distinct to neural networks, or particularly mysterious. Moreover, this generalization behaviour can be intuitively understood, and rigorously characterized, using long-standing generalization frameworks such as PAC-Bayes and countable hypothesis bounds. We present soft inductive biases as a key unifying principle in explaining these phenomena: rather than restricting the hypothesis space to avoid overfitting, embrace a flexible hypothesis space, with a soft preference for simpler solutions that are consistent with the data. This principle can be encoded in many model classes, and thus deep learning is not as mysterious or different from other model classes as it might seem. However, we also highlight how deep learning is relatively distinct in other ways, such as its ability for representation learning, phenomena such as mode connectivity, and its relative universality.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

A significant use case of instruction-finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) is to solve question-answering tasks interactively. In this setting, an LLM agent is tasked with making a prediction by sequentially querying relevant information from the user, as opposed to a single-turn conversation. This paper explores sequential querying strategies that aim to minimize the expected number of queries. One such strategy is Information Pursuit (IP), a greedy algorithm that at each iteration selects the query that maximizes information gain or equivalently minimizes uncertainty. However, obtaining accurate estimates of mutual information or conditional entropy for LLMs is very difficult in practice due to over- or under-confident LLM probabilities, which leads to suboptimal query selection and predictive performance. To better estimate the uncertainty at each iteration, we propose Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP), an alternative approach to sequential information gain based on conformal prediction sets. More specifically, C-IP leverages a relationship between prediction sets and conditional entropy at each iteration to estimate uncertainty based on the average size of conformal prediction sets. In contrast to conditional entropy, we find that conformal prediction sets are a distribution-free and robust method of measuring uncertainty. Experiments with 20 Questions show that C-IP obtains better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains compared to previous approaches to IP and uncertainty-based chain-of-thought methods. Furthermore, extending to an interactive medical setting between a doctor and a patient on the MediQ dataset, C-IP achieves competitive performance with direct single-turn prediction while offering greater interpretability.

We develop graph-based methods for semi-supervised learning based on label propagation on a data similarity graph. When data is abundant or arrive in a stream, the problems of computation and data storage arise for any graph-based method. We propose a fast approximate online algorithm that solves for the harmonic solution on an approximate graph. We show, both empirically and theoretically, that good behavior can be achieved by collapsing nearby points into a set of local representative points that minimize distortion. Moreover, we regularize the harmonic solution to achieve better stability properties. We also present graph-based methods for detecting conditional anomalies and apply them to the identification of unusual clinical actions in hospitals. Our hypothesis is that patient-management actions that are unusual with respect to the past patients may be due to errors and that it is worthwhile to raise an alert if such a condition is encountered. Conditional anomaly detection extends standard unconditional anomaly framework but also faces new problems known as fringe and isolated points. We devise novel nonparametric graph-based methods to tackle these problems. Our methods rely on graph connectivity analysis and soft harmonic solution. Finally, we conduct an extensive human evaluation study of our conditional anomaly methods by 15 experts in critical care.

A fuzzy theoretic analytical approach was recently introduced that leads to efficient and robust models while addressing automatically the typical issues associated to parametric deep models. However, a formal conceptualization of the fuzzy theoretic analytical deep models is still not available. This paper introduces using measure theoretic basis the notion of membership-mapping for representing data points through attribute values (motivated by fuzzy theory). A property of the membership-mapping, that can be exploited for data representation learning, is of providing an interpolation on the given data points in the data space. An analytical approach to the variational learning of a membership-mappings based data representation model is considered.

We explore the relations between the zeta distribution and algorithmic information theory via a new model of the transfer learning problem. The program distribution is approximated by a zeta distribution with parameter near 1. We model the training sequence as a stochastic process. We analyze the upper temporal bound for learning a training sequence and its entropy rates, assuming an oracle for the transfer learning problem. We argue from empirical evidence that power-law models are suitable for natural processes. Four sequence models are proposed. Random typing model is like no-free lunch where transfer learning does not work. Zeta process independently samples programs from the zeta distribution. A model of common sub-programs inspired by genetics uses a database of sub-programs. An evolutionary zeta process samples mutations from Zeta distribution. The analysis of stochastic processes inspired by evolution suggest that AI may be feasible in nature, countering no-free lunch sort of arguments.

Quantifying the similarity between two mathematical structures or datasets constitutes a particularly interesting and useful operation in several theoretical and applied problems. Aimed at this specific objective, the Jaccard index has been extensively used in the most diverse types of problems, also motivating some respective generalizations. The present work addresses further generalizations of this index, including its modification into a coincidence index capable of accounting also for the level of relative interiority between the two compared entities, as well as respective extensions for sets in continuous vector spaces, the generalization to multiset addition, densities and generic scalar fields, as well as a means to quantify the joint interdependence between two random variables. The also interesting possibility to take into account more than two sets has also been addressed, including the description of an index capable of quantifying the level of chaining between three structures. Several of the described and suggested eneralizations have been illustrated with respect to numeric case examples. It is also posited that these indices can play an important role while analyzing and integrating datasets in modeling approaches and pattern recognition activities, including as a measurement of clusters similarity or separation and as a resource for representing and analyzing complex networks.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

State-of-the-art neurosymbolic learning systems use probabilistic reasoning to guide neural networks towards predictions that conform to logical constraints over symbols. Many such systems assume that the probabilities of the considered symbols are conditionally independent given the input to simplify learning and reasoning. We study and criticise this assumption, highlighting how it can hinder optimisation and prevent uncertainty quantification. We prove that loss functions bias conditionally independent neural networks to become overconfident in their predictions. As a result, they are unable to represent uncertainty over multiple valid options. Furthermore, we prove that these loss functions are difficult to optimise: they are non-convex, and their minima are usually highly disconnected. Our theoretical analysis gives the foundation for replacing the conditional independence assumption and designing more expressive neurosymbolic probabilistic models.

Deep learning models have become increasingly useful in many different industries. On the domain of image classification, convolutional neural networks proved the ability to learn robust features for the closed set problem, as shown in many different datasets, such as MNIST FASHIONMNIST, CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and IMAGENET. These approaches use deep neural networks with dense layers with softmax activation functions in order to learn features that can separate classes in a latent space. However, this traditional approach is not useful for identifying classes unseen on the training set, known as the open set problem. A similar problem occurs in scenarios involving learning on small data. To tackle both problems, few-shot learning has been proposed. In particular, metric learning learns features that obey constraints of a metric distance in the latent space in order to perform classification. However, while this approach proves to be useful for the open set problem, current implementation requires pair-wise training, where both positive and negative examples of similar images are presented during the training phase, which limits the applicability of these approaches in large data or large class scenarios given the combinatorial nature of the possible inputs.In this paper, we present a constraint-based approach applied to the representations in the latent space under the normalized softmax loss, proposed by[18]. We experimentally validate the proposed approach for the classification of unseen classes on different datasets using both metric learning and the normalized softmax loss, on disjoint and joint scenarios. Our results show that not only our proposed strategy can be efficiently trained on larger set of classes, as it does not require pairwise learning, but also present better classification results than the metric learning strategies surpassing its accuracy by a significant margin.

Sequential recommendation (SR) aims to model the sequential dependencies in users' historical interactions to better capture their evolving interests. However, existing SR approaches primarily rely on collaborative data, which leads to limitations such as the cold-start problem and sub-optimal performance. Meanwhile, despite the success of large language models (LLMs), their application in industrial recommender systems is hindered by high inference latency, inability to capture all distribution statistics, and catastrophic forgetting. To this end, we propose a novel Pre-train, Align, and Disentangle (PAD) paradigm to empower recommendation models with LLMs. Specifically, we first pre-train both the SR and LLM models to get collaborative and textual embeddings. Next, a characteristic recommendation-anchored alignment loss is proposed using multi-kernel maximum mean discrepancy with Gaussian kernels. Finally, a triple-experts architecture, consisting aligned and modality-specific experts with disentangled embeddings, is fine-tuned in a frequency-aware manner. Experiments conducted on three public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of PAD, showing significant improvements and compatibility with various SR backbone models, especially on cold items. The implementation code and datasets will be publicly available.

System One models output calibrated probabilities over typed answers such as categorical choices, ordinal levels, or binary outcomes, via a non-generative interface. Software can act on these probabilities through thresholds, cost-weighted choices, and escalation rules. Consequently, if these probabilities are miscalibrated or wording-sensitive, the software ma take unintended actions leaving human operators with no textual rationale to inspect. Current evaluations largely report accuracy and calibration on public classification datasets without a clear reference. We present TypedBench, a benchmark for typed decision models like Jev built from seven policy-labelled generators and nine evaluation suites. We report accuracy as median and range across paraphrases, and calibration error relative to the finite-sample noise floor of a matched, perfectly calibrated predictor. We assess probability quality through selective prediction, ordinal proper scoring rules, and realised cost under asymmetric cost matrices. We evaluate a hosted model, an open encoder, and a family of open decoders spanning 0.8B-9B parameters on identical items. The hosted model follows the stated policy but is wording-sensitive and systematically underconfident; under asymmetric costs, using its probabilities can be worse than taking its top answer. Decoders route exactly and are slow as options or questions are added. The decoder is least accurate on policy questions and degrades with more options. Overall, typed decision models must be evaluated jointly on policy adherence, wording robustness, probability quality, and induced decision outcomes.

We present FerKD, a novel efficient knowledge distillation framework that incorporates partial soft-hard label adaptation coupled with a region-calibration mechanism. Our approach stems from the observation and intuition that standard data augmentations, such as RandomResizedCrop, tend to transform inputs into diverse conditions: easy positives, hard positives, or hard negatives. In traditional distillation frameworks, these transformed samples are utilized equally through their predictive probabilities derived from pretrained teacher models. However, merely relying on prediction values from a pretrained teacher, a common practice in prior studies, neglects the reliability of these soft label predictions. To address this, we propose a new scheme that calibrates the less-confident regions to be the context using softened hard groundtruth labels. Our approach involves the processes of hard regions mining + calibration. We demonstrate empirically that this method can dramatically improve the convergence speed and final accuracy. Additionally, we find that a consistent mixing strategy can stabilize the distributions of soft supervision, taking advantage of the soft labels. As a result, we introduce a stabilized SelfMix augmentation that weakens the variation of the mixed images and corresponding soft labels through mixing similar regions within the same image. FerKD is an intuitive and well-designed learning system that eliminates several heuristics and hyperparameters in former FKD solution. More importantly, it achieves remarkable improvement on ImageNet-1K and downstream tasks. For instance, FerKD achieves 81.2% on ImageNet-1K with ResNet-50, outperforming FKD and FunMatch by remarkable margins. Leveraging better pre-trained weights and larger architectures, our finetuned ViT-G14 even achieves 89.9%. Our code is available at https://github.com/szq0214/FKD/tree/main/FerKD.

We revisit Zadeh's notion of "evidence of the second kind" and show that it provides the foundation for a general theory of epistemic random fuzzy sets, which generalizes both the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and possibility theory. In this perspective, Dempster-Shafer theory deals with belief functions generated by random sets, while possibility theory deals with belief functions induced by fuzzy sets. The more general theory allows us to represent and combine evidence that is both uncertain and fuzzy. We demonstrate the application of this formalism to statistical inference, and show that it makes it possible to reconcile the possibilistic interpretation of likelihood with Bayesian inference.

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

Semantic word embeddings represent the meaning of a word via a vector, and are created by diverse methods. Many use nonlinear operations on co-occurrence statistics, and have hand-tuned hyperparameters and reweighting methods. This paper proposes a new generative model, a dynamic version of the log-linear topic model of~mnih2007three. The methodological novelty is to use the prior to compute closed form expressions for word statistics. This provides a theoretical justification for nonlinear models like PMI, word2vec, and GloVe, as well as some hyperparameter choices. It also helps explain why low-dimensional semantic embeddings contain linear algebraic structure that allows solution of word analogies, as shown by~mikolov2013efficient and many subsequent papers. Experimental support is provided for the generative model assumptions, the most important of which is that latent word vectors are fairly uniformly dispersed in space.

Albeit worryingly underrated in the recent literature on machine learning in general (and, on deep learning in particular), multivariate density estimation is a fundamental task in many applications, at least implicitly, and still an open issue. With a few exceptions, deep neural networks (DNNs) have seldom been applied to density estimation, mostly due to the unsupervised nature of the estimation task, and (especially) due to the need for constrained training algorithms that ended up realizing proper probabilistic models that satisfy Kolmogorov's axioms. Moreover, in spite of the well-known improvement in terms of modeling capabilities yielded by mixture models over plain single-density statistical estimators, no proper mixtures of multivariate DNN-based component densities have been investigated so far. The paper fills this gap by extending our previous work on Neural Mixture Densities (NMMs) to multivariate DNN mixtures. A maximum-likelihood (ML) algorithm for estimating Deep NMMs (DNMMs) is handed out, which satisfies numerically a combination of hard and soft constraints aimed at ensuring satisfaction of Kolmogorov's axioms. The class of probability density functions that can be modeled to any degree of precision via DNMMs is formally defined. A procedure for the automatic selection of the DNMM architecture, as well as of the hyperparameters for its ML training algorithm, is presented (exploiting the probabilistic nature of the DNMM). Experimental results on univariate and multivariate data are reported on, corroborating the effectiveness of the approach and its superiority to the most popular statistical estimation techniques.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

In recent years, Few-Shot Object Detection (FSOD) has gained widespread attention and made significant progress due to its ability to build models with a good generalization power using extremely limited annotated data. The fine-tuning based paradigm is currently dominating this field, where detectors are initially pre-trained on base classes with sufficient samples and then fine-tuned on novel ones with few samples, but the scarcity of labeled samples of novel classes greatly interferes precisely fitting their data distribution, thus hampering the performance. To address this issue, we propose a new framework for FSOD, namely Prototype-based Soft-labels and Test-Time Learning (PS-TTL). Specifically, we design a Test-Time Learning (TTL) module that employs a mean-teacher network for self-training to discover novel instances from test data, allowing detectors to learn better representations and classifiers for novel classes. Furthermore, we notice that even though relatively low-confidence pseudo-labels exhibit classification confusion, they still tend to recall foreground. We thus develop a Prototype-based Soft-labels (PS) strategy through assessing similarities between low-confidence pseudo-labels and category prototypes as soft-labels to unleash their potential, which substantially mitigates the constraints posed by few-shot samples. Extensive experiments on both the VOC and COCO benchmarks show that PS-TTL achieves the state-of-the-art, highlighting its effectiveness. The code and model are available at https://github.com/gaoyingjay/PS-TTL.

Linear Mode Connectivity (LMC) refers to the phenomenon that performance remains consistent for linearly interpolated models in the parameter space. For independently optimized model pairs from different random initializations, achieving LMC is considered crucial for validating the stable success of the non-convex optimization in modern machine learning models and for facilitating practical parameter-based operations such as model merging. While LMC has been achieved for neural networks by considering the permutation invariance of neurons in each hidden layer, its attainment for other models remains an open question. In this paper, we first achieve LMC for soft tree ensembles, which are tree-based differentiable models extensively used in practice. We show the necessity of incorporating two invariances: subtree flip invariance and splitting order invariance, which do not exist in neural networks but are inherent to tree architectures, in addition to permutation invariance of trees. Moreover, we demonstrate that it is even possible to exclude such additional invariances while keeping LMC by designing decision list-based tree architectures, where such invariances do not exist by definition. Our findings indicate the significance of accounting for architecture-specific invariances in achieving LMC.