Daily Papers

Speculative decoding can significantly accelerate LLM serving, yet most deployments today disentangle speculator training from serving, treating speculator training as a standalone offline modeling problem. We show that this decoupled formulation introduces substantial deployment and adaptation lag: (1) high time-to-serve, since a speculator must be trained offline for a considerable period before deployment; (2) delayed utility feedback, since the true end-to-end decoding speedup is only known after training and cannot be inferred reliably from acceptance rate alone due to model-architecture and system-level overheads; and (3) domain-drift degradation, as the target model is repurposed to new domains and the speculator becomes stale and less effective. To address these issues, we present Aurora, a unified training-serving system that closes the loop by continuously learning a speculator directly from live inference traces. Aurora reframes online speculator learning as an asynchronous reinforcement-learning problem: accepted tokens provide positive feedback, while rejected speculator proposals provide implicit negative feedback that we exploit to improve sample efficiency. Our design integrates an SGLang-based inference server with an asynchronous training server, enabling hot-swapped speculator updates without service interruption. Crucially, Aurora supports day-0 deployment: a speculator can be served immediately and rapidly adapted to live traffic, improving system performance while providing immediate utility feedback. Across experiments, Aurora achieves a 1.5x day-0 speedup on recently released frontier models (e.g., MiniMax M2.1 229B and Qwen3-Coder-Next 80B). Aurora also adapts effectively to distribution shifts in user traffic, delivering an additional 1.25x speedup over a well-trained but static speculator on widely used models (e.g., Qwen3 and Llama3).

We introduce a novel hybrid approach that augments Agent-Based Models (ABMs) with behaviors generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate human trading interactions. We call our model TraderTalk. Leveraging LLMs trained on extensive human-authored text, we capture detailed and nuanced representations of bilateral conversations in financial trading. Applying this Generative Agent-Based Model (GABM) to government bond markets, we replicate trading decisions between two stylised virtual humans. Our method addresses both structural challenges, such as coordinating turn-taking between realistic LLM-based agents, and design challenges, including the interpretation of LLM outputs by the agent model. By exploring prompt design opportunistically rather than systematically, we enhance the realism of agent interactions without exhaustive overfitting or model reliance. Our approach successfully replicates trade-to-order volume ratios observed in related asset markets, demonstrating the potential of LLM-augmented ABMs in financial simulations

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are transforming the domain of Quantitative Trading (QT) through the deployment of advanced algorithms capable of sifting through extensive financial datasets to pinpoint lucrative investment openings. AI-driven models, particularly those employing ML techniques such as deep learning and reinforcement learning, have shown great prowess in predicting market trends and executing trades at a speed and accuracy that far surpass human capabilities. Its capacity to automate critical tasks, such as discerning market conditions and executing trading strategies, has been pivotal. However, persistent challenges exist in current QT methods, especially in effectively handling noisy and high-frequency financial data. Striking a balance between exploration and exploitation poses another challenge for AI-driven trading agents. To surmount these hurdles, our proposed solution, QTNet, introduces an adaptive trading model that autonomously formulates QT strategies through an intelligent trading agent. Incorporating deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning methodologies, we bolster the proficiency of our model. To tackle the challenges posed by volatile financial datasets, we conceptualize the QT mechanism within the framework of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Moreover, by embedding imitative learning, the model can capitalize on traditional trading tactics, nurturing a balanced synergy between discovery and utilization. For a more realistic simulation, our trading agent undergoes training using minute-frequency data sourced from the live financial market. Experimental findings underscore the model's proficiency in extracting robust market features and its adaptability to diverse market conditions.