Daily Papers

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is notoriously data-inefficient, which makes training on a real robot difficult. While model-based RL algorithms (world models) improve data-efficiency to some extent, they still require hours or days of interaction to learn skills. Recently, offline RL has been proposed as a framework for training RL policies on pre-existing datasets without any online interaction. However, constraining an algorithm to a fixed dataset induces a state-action distribution shift between training and inference, and limits its applicability to new tasks. In this work, we seek to get the best of both worlds: we consider the problem of pretraining a world model with offline data collected on a real robot, and then finetuning the model on online data collected by planning with the learned model. To mitigate extrapolation errors during online interaction, we propose to regularize the planner at test-time by balancing estimated returns and (epistemic) model uncertainty. We evaluate our method on a variety of visuo-motor control tasks in simulation and on a real robot, and find that our method enables few-shot finetuning to seen and unseen tasks even when offline data is limited. Videos, code, and data are available at https://yunhaifeng.com/FOWM .

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) provides a promising solution to learning an agent fully relying on a data-driven paradigm. However, constrained by the limited quality of the offline dataset, its performance is often sub-optimal. Therefore, it is desired to further finetune the agent via extra online interactions before deployment. Unfortunately, offline-to-online RL can be challenging due to two main challenges: constrained exploratory behavior and state-action distribution shift. To this end, we propose a Simple Unified uNcertainty-Guided (SUNG) framework, which naturally unifies the solution to both challenges with the tool of uncertainty. Specifically, SUNG quantifies uncertainty via a VAE-based state-action visitation density estimator. To facilitate efficient exploration, SUNG presents a practical optimistic exploration strategy to select informative actions with both high value and high uncertainty. Moreover, SUNG develops an adaptive exploitation method by applying conservative offline RL objectives to high-uncertainty samples and standard online RL objectives to low-uncertainty samples to smoothly bridge offline and online stages. SUNG achieves state-of-the-art online finetuning performance when combined with different offline RL methods, across various environments and datasets in D4RL benchmark.

Offline Imitation Learning (IL) methods such as Behavior Cloning are effective at acquiring complex robotic manipulation skills. However, existing IL-trained policies are confined to executing the task at the same speed as shown in demonstration data. This limits the task throughput of a robotic system, a critical requirement for applications such as industrial automation. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the novel problem of enabling faster-than-demonstration execution of visuomotor policies and identify fundamental challenges in robot dynamics and state-action distribution shifts. We instantiate the key insights as SAIL (Speed Adaptation for Imitation Learning), a full-stack system integrating four tightly-connected components: (1) a consistency-preserving action inference algorithm for smooth motion at high speed, (2) high-fidelity tracking of controller-invariant motion targets, (3) adaptive speed modulation that dynamically adjusts execution speed based on motion complexity, and (4) action scheduling to handle real-world system latencies. Experiments on 12 tasks across simulation and two real, distinct robot platforms show that SAIL achieves up to a 4x speedup over demonstration speed in simulation and up to 3.2x speedup in the real world. Additional detail is available at https://nadunranawaka1.github.io/sail-policy

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) often achieves higher sample efficiency in practice than model-free RL by learning a dynamics model to generate samples for policy learning. Previous works learn a dynamics model that fits under the empirical state-action visitation distribution for all historical policies, i.e., the sample replay buffer. However, in this paper, we observe that fitting the dynamics model under the distribution for all historical policies does not necessarily benefit model prediction for the current policy since the policy in use is constantly evolving over time. The evolving policy during training will cause state-action visitation distribution shifts. We theoretically analyze how this distribution shift over historical policies affects the model learning and model rollouts. We then propose a novel dynamics model learning method, named Policy-adapted Dynamics Model Learning (PDML). PDML dynamically adjusts the historical policy mixture distribution to ensure the learned model can continually adapt to the state-action visitation distribution of the evolving policy. Experiments on a range of continuous control environments in MuJoCo show that PDML achieves significant improvement in sample efficiency and higher asymptotic performance combined with the state-of-the-art model-based RL methods.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn an optimal policy from pre-collected data. However, it faces challenges of distributional shift, where the learned policy may encounter unseen scenarios not covered in the offline data. Additionally, numerous applications suffer from a scarcity of labeled reward data. Relying on labeled data alone often leads to a narrow state-action distribution, further amplifying the distributional shift, and resulting in suboptimal policy learning. To address these issues, we first recognize that the volume of unlabeled data is typically substantially larger than that of labeled data. We then propose a semi-pessimistic RL method to effectively leverage abundant unlabeled data. Our approach offers several advantages. It considerably simplifies the learning process, as it seeks a lower bound of the reward function, rather than that of the Q-function or state transition function. It is highly flexible, and can be integrated with a range of model-free and model-based RL algorithms. It enjoys the guaranteed improvement when utilizing vast unlabeled data, but requires much less restrictive conditions. We compare our method with a number of alternative solutions, both analytically and numerically, and demonstrate its clear competitiveness. We further illustrate with an application to adaptive deep brain stimulation for Parkinson's disease.

World Action Models (WAMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm by jointly modeling robot actions and future visual dynamics. However, their reliance on pixel-generative future supervision can entangle action-relevant state transitions with task-irrelevant visual content, limiting robustness under visual distribution shifts. We identify Training-Distribution Hallucination, a recurring phenomenon in which futures conditioned on visually shifted observations hallucinate training-domain content rather than remain faithful to the current scene. A controlled frame-triplet diagnosis further shows that DINOv3 features remain more stable across visual shifts while better preserving task-state distinctions than Wan-VAE latents. Rather than correcting the predicted futures, we propose Semantic-Temporal WAM (ST-WAM) to improve action robustness by using DINOv3 as a shared semantic representation for future prediction and history retrieval while retaining fine-grained VAE dynamics. Its Dual-Space Future Experts (DSFE) jointly predict future VAE latents and DINO features, while Current-Anchored Intent Retrieval (CAIR) retrieves task-relevant evidence from recent DINO history under the current visual-language context. ST-WAM is trained end-to-end without additional embodied pretraining or task-specific annotations, and requires no explicit future generation at inference. It achieves 98.7% on LIBERO and 92.8% on RoboTwin 2.0; more importantly, compared with Fast-WAM, it improves zero-shot LIBERO-Plus performance by 21.3 percentage points and more than doubles real-world success under visual shifts from 25.8% to 61.5%. These results demonstrate that semantic-temporal modeling effectively complements pixel-generative dynamics for robust manipulation.

Physical AI systems increasingly map multimodal observations, language instructions, and learned world representations into physically consequential actions. Robotics foundation models, vision-language-action models, and world-model-based autonomous systems can condition decisions that move vehicles, robots, drones, and industrial machines. This transition exposes a safety problem that is not fully captured by conventional AI content moderation or by classical robot safety alone: a black-box model may issue a physically consequential action while appearing confident, plausible, and semantically aligned. The resulting failure can be silent, arising from sensor drift, occlusion, state-estimation error, distribution shift, hallucinated affordances, or invalid physical assumptions before downstream hardware controllers detect a violation. Across embodied foundation models, world models, robotics simulation, embodied safety benchmarks, safe control, runtime assurance, uncertainty estimation, verification, and guardrail evaluation, model capability and safety mechanisms have advanced along largely separate technical tracks. A recurring gap synthesized here is that no single stream surveyed in this review supplies a complete runtime authorization boundary between black-box Physical AI models and physical execution. The resulting analysis develops a bounded problem formulation, a definition of silent physical-action failure, a taxonomy of runtime guardrail functions, and evaluation requirements for comparing guardrails as Physical AI assurance mechanisms.

In supervised learning, the question of data quality and curation has been over-shadowed in recent years by increasingly more powerful and expressive models that can ingest internet-scale data. However, in offline learning for robotics, we simply lack internet scale data, and so high quality datasets are a necessity. This is especially true in imitation learning (IL), a sample efficient paradigm for robot learning using expert demonstrations. Policies learned through IL suffer from state distribution shift at test time due to compounding errors in action prediction, which leads to unseen states that the policy cannot recover from. Instead of designing new algorithms to address distribution shift, an alternative perspective is to develop new ways of assessing and curating datasets. There is growing evidence that the same IL algorithms can have substantially different performance across different datasets. This calls for a formalism for defining metrics of "data quality" that can further be leveraged for data curation. In this work, we take the first step toward formalizing data quality for imitation learning through the lens of distribution shift: a high quality dataset encourages the policy to stay in distribution at test time. We propose two fundamental properties that shape the quality of a dataset: i) action divergence: the mismatch between the expert and learned policy at certain states; and ii) transition diversity: the noise present in the system for a given state and action. We investigate the combined effect of these two key properties in imitation learning theoretically, and we empirically analyze models trained on a variety of different data sources. We show that state diversity is not always beneficial, and we demonstrate how action divergence and transition diversity interact in practice.

Imitation Learning (IL) is a sample efficient paradigm for robot learning using expert demonstrations. However, policies learned through IL suffer from state distribution shift at test time, due to compounding errors in action prediction which lead to previously unseen states. Choosing an action representation for the policy that minimizes this distribution shift is critical in imitation learning. Prior work propose using temporal action abstractions to reduce compounding errors, but they often sacrifice policy dexterity or require domain-specific knowledge. To address these trade-offs, we introduce HYDRA, a method that leverages a hybrid action space with two levels of action abstractions: sparse high-level waypoints and dense low-level actions. HYDRA dynamically switches between action abstractions at test time to enable both coarse and fine-grained control of a robot. In addition, HYDRA employs action relabeling to increase the consistency of actions in the dataset, further reducing distribution shift. HYDRA outperforms prior imitation learning methods by 30-40% on seven challenging simulation and real world environments, involving long-horizon tasks in the real world like making coffee and toasting bread. Videos are found on our website: https://tinyurl.com/3mc6793z

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) can achieve competitive performance by converting already existing well-trained Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), avoiding further costly training. This property is particularly attractive in Reinforcement Learning (RL), where training through environment interaction is expensive and potentially unsafe. However, existing conversion methods perform poorly in continuous control, where suitable baselines are largely absent. We identify error amplification as the key cause: small action approximation errors become temporally correlated across decision steps, inducing cumulative state distribution shift and severe performance degradation. To address this issue, we propose Cross-Step Residual Potential Initialization (CRPI), a lightweight gradient-free mechanism that carries over residual membrane potentials across decision steps to suppress temporally correlated errors. Experiments on continuous control benchmarks with both vector and visual observations demonstrate that CRPI can be integrated into existing conversion pipelines and substantially recovers lost performance. Our results highlight continuous control as a critical and challenging benchmark for ANN-to-SNN conversion, where small errors can be strongly amplified and impact performance. Code is available at https://github.com/xuzijie32/ANN2SNN-CRPI.

Vision-language-action (VLA) robustness is commonly summarized by aggregate task success, which obscures how individual executions change under distribution shifts and where failures emerge in long-horizon tasks. We introduce RoboCasa-Shift, a diagnostic robustness benchmark built on RoboCasa365 that combines controlled single-factor shifts, matched clean-perturbed rollouts in which each pair shares the same underlying settings and differs only in the target shift, and simulator-grounded stage-aware diagnostics. We evaluate GR00T N1.5 on four long-horizon tasks that pass a predefined clean-performance gate under four perturbation factors and three calibrated severity levels, including conditions that drive the evaluated policy to complete task failure, totaling 1,040 formal rollouts. Robustness responses vary substantially across factors and tasks, and increasing severity does not always produce monotonic degradation. For example, one camera condition yields ΔSR=0 despite 8 of 80 matched episodes changing outcome. Stage-aware analysis further shows that the same end-to-end degradation can correspond to different execution-depth profiles. Camera L_2 and Gaussian blur L_1 both yield ΔSR=0.188, yet their first-stage failure rates are 19.0\% and 36.4\%, respectively. Our findings suggest that VLA robustness should be viewed as a multi-dimensional property of execution rather than a single end-to-end performance measure, motivating evaluation protocols that jointly capture outcome degradation, paired outcome sensitivity, and failure progression. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/HaochengWang23/RoboCasa-Shift.

Reinforcement learning fine-tuning on top of large, pretrained Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models offers promise for highly reliable robot deployment. However, because of their scale, modern VLA models suffer from high inference latency, so the observation used to select an action is often stale by execution time, creating a distribution shift that can substantially degrade reliability and performance. Prior work has explored asynchronous policy execution to reduce the effect of latency, but these methods are mostly built on imitation learning and offer no mechanism for moving beyond the training distribution toward higher reliability. We close this gap by enabling RL fine-tuning that meets the real-time control requirements of dynamic real-world manipulation. Our approach builds on EXPO-FT, a framework for sample-efficient, reliable VLA fine-tuning with reinforcement learning, and decouples slow, expressive action generation from fast, reactive action edits: a large pretrained VLA proposes action chunks using its strong behavior prior, while a lightweight edit policy performs fast, reactive decision-making by editing actions in response to changes in state, conditioned on the latest observation. We instantiate this as Real-Time EXPO-FT, an RL framework for finetuning real-time VLA policies. On the Kinetix benchmark, Real-Time EXPO-FT enables a delayed policy to achieve the best performance among delayed and non-delayed methods in 10 out of 10 environments. On four dynamic real-world tasks, robot object passing, ball balancing, table soccer kicking, and dynamic object picking, with online robot data capped at 10 minutes, Real-Time EXPO-FT improves average policy performance from 42% to 97%, all without human intervention, demonstrating rapid, sample-efficient adaptation to challenging real-world dynamics. Website: https://pd-perry.github.io/real-time-expo-ft

Adapting vision-language-action (VLA) models to deployment-time distribution shifts is important for reliable robotic operation, but conventional first-order adaptation can exceed the memory budget of inference-oriented deployment platforms. Zeroth-order (ZO) optimization offers a forward-only alternative with inference-level memory, but accurate gradient estimation requires many perturbation queries, making naive ZO prohibitively slow for large VLA models. We present VLA-ZO, a framework for fast ZO adaptation that exploits the structure of VLA computation. By confining adaptation to the action side, VLA-ZO keeps the expensive vision-language prefix frozen and reuses its conditioning states across perturbation queries and optimizer steps, while schedule-aware prefetching hides state-transfer overhead. On LIBERO camera-viewpoint shifts, VLA-ZO reduces end-to-end adaptation time by 25.59times at q=16 and 32.54times at q=64 relative to baseline ZO, while improving average task success from 48.27% without adaptation to 58.17% and 63.58%, respectively. These results show that making ZO faster can make larger query budgets practical, providing a promising path toward resource-efficient VLA adaptation on deployment platforms.

Robot learning approaches such as behavior cloning and reinforcement learning have shown great promise in synthesizing robot skills from human demonstrations in specific environments. However, these approaches often require task-specific demonstrations or designing complex simulation environments, which limits the development of generalizable and robust policies for unseen real-world settings. Recent advances in the use of foundation models for robotics (e.g., LLMs, VLMs) have shown great potential in enabling systems to understand the semantics in the world from large-scale internet data. However, it remains an open challenge to use this knowledge to enable robotic systems to understand the underlying dynamics of the world, to generalize policies across different tasks, and to adapt policies to new environments. To alleviate these limitations, we propose an agentic framework for robot self-guidance and self-improvement, which consists of a set of role-specialized conversational agents, such as a high-level advisor, a grounding agent, a monitoring agent, and a robotic agent. Our framework iteratively grounds a base robot policy to relevant objects in the environment and uses visuomotor cues to shift the action distribution of the policy to more desirable states, online, while remaining agnostic to the subjective configuration of a given robot hardware platform. We demonstrate that our approach can effectively guide manipulation policies to achieve significantly higher success rates, both in simulation and in real-world experiments, without the need for additional human demonstrations or extensive exploration. Code and videos available at: https://agenticrobots.github.io

Offline reinforcement learning learns an effective policy on offline datasets without online interaction, and it attracts persistent research attention due to its potential of practical application. However, extrapolation error generated by distribution shift will still lead to the overestimation for those actions that transit to out-of-distribution(OOD) states, which degrades the reliability and robustness of the offline policy. In this paper, we propose Contextual Conservative Q-Learning(C-CQL) to learn a robustly reliable policy through the contextual information captured via an inverse dynamics model. With the supervision of the inverse dynamics model, it tends to learn a policy that generates stable transition at perturbed states, for the fact that pertuebed states are a common kind of OOD states. In this manner, we enable the learnt policy more likely to generate transition that destines to the empirical next state distributions of the offline dataset, i.e., robustly reliable transition. Besides, we theoretically reveal that C-CQL is the generalization of the Conservative Q-Learning(CQL) and aggressive State Deviation Correction(SDC). Finally, experimental results demonstrate the proposed C-CQL achieves the state-of-the-art performance in most environments of offline Mujoco suite and a noisy Mujoco setting.

A distribution shift can have fundamental consequences such as signaling a change in the operating environment or significantly reducing the accuracy of downstream models. Thus, understanding distribution shifts is critical for examining and hopefully mitigating the effect of such a shift. Most prior work focuses on merely detecting if a shift has occurred and assumes any detected shift can be understood and handled appropriately by a human operator. We hope to aid in these manual mitigation tasks by explaining the distribution shift using interpretable transportation maps from the original distribution to the shifted one. We derive our interpretable mappings from a relaxation of optimal transport, where the candidate mappings are restricted to a set of interpretable mappings. We then inspect multiple quintessential use-cases of distribution shift in real-world tabular, text, and image datasets to showcase how our explanatory mappings provide a better balance between detail and interpretability than baseline explanations by both visual inspection and our PercentExplained metric.

Distribution shift is a major obstacle in offline reinforcement learning, which necessitates minimizing the discrepancy between the learned policy and the behavior policy to avoid overestimating rare or unseen actions. Previous conservative offline RL algorithms struggle to generalize to unseen actions, despite their success in learning good in-distribution policy. In contrast, we propose to use the gradient fields of the dataset density generated from a pre-trained offline RL algorithm to adjust the original actions. We decouple the conservatism constraints from the policy, thus can benefit wide offline RL algorithms. As a consequence, we propose the Conservative Denoising Score-based Algorithm (CDSA) which utilizes the denoising score-based model to model the gradient of the dataset density, rather than the dataset density itself, and facilitates a more accurate and efficient method to adjust the action generated by the pre-trained policy in a deterministic and continuous MDP environment. In experiments, we show that our approach significantly improves the performance of baseline algorithms in D4RL datasets, and demonstrate the generalizability and plug-and-play capability of our model across different pre-trained offline RL policy in different tasks. We also validate that the agent exhibits greater risk aversion after employing our method while showcasing its ability to generalize effectively across diverse tasks.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the model to make incorrect forecasts in unfamiliar situations. We propose a self-supervised method that trains a decoder in a post-hoc fashion on the self-supervised task of forecasting the second half of observed trajectories from the first half. The L2 norm of the gradient of this forecasting loss with respect to the decoder's final layer defines a score to identify distribution shifts. Our approach, first, does not affect the trajectory prediction model, ensuring no interference with original prediction performance and second, demonstrates substantial improvements on distribution shift detection for trajectory prediction on the Shifts and Argoverse datasets. Moreover, we show that this method can also be used to early detect collisions of a deep Q-Network motion planner in the Highway simulator. Source code is available at https://github.com/Michedev/forecasting-the-past.

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample (X,Y) drawn from a distribution D and will face a model h and its classification result h(X). Agents can modify X to adapt to h, which will incur a distribution shift on (X,Y). Our formulation is motivated by applications where the deployed machine learning models are subjected to human agents, and will ultimately face responsive and interactive data distributions. We formalize the discussions of the transferability of a model by studying how the performance of the model trained on the available source distribution (data) would translate to the performance on its induced domain. We provide both upper bounds for the performance gap due to the induced domain shift, as well as lower bounds for the trade-offs that a classifier has to suffer on either the source training distribution or the induced target distribution. We provide further instantiated analysis for two popular domain adaptation settings, including covariate shift and target shift.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Distributional shift, or the mismatch between training and deployment data, is a significant obstacle to the usage of machine learning in high-stakes industrial applications, such as autonomous driving and medicine. This creates a need to be able to assess how robustly ML models generalize as well as the quality of their uncertainty estimates. Standard ML baseline datasets do not allow these properties to be assessed, as the training, validation and test data are often identically distributed. Recently, a range of dedicated benchmarks have appeared, featuring both distributionally matched and shifted data. Among these benchmarks, the Shifts dataset stands out in terms of the diversity of tasks as well as the data modalities it features. While most of the benchmarks are heavily dominated by 2D image classification tasks, Shifts contains tabular weather forecasting, machine translation, and vehicle motion prediction tasks. This enables the robustness properties of models to be assessed on a diverse set of industrial-scale tasks and either universal or directly applicable task-specific conclusions to be reached. In this paper, we extend the Shifts Dataset with two datasets sourced from industrial, high-risk applications of high societal importance. Specifically, we consider the tasks of segmentation of white matter Multiple Sclerosis lesions in 3D magnetic resonance brain images and the estimation of power consumption in marine cargo vessels. Both tasks feature ubiquitous distributional shifts and a strict safety requirement due to the high cost of errors. These new datasets will allow researchers to further explore robust generalization and uncertainty estimation in new situations. In this work, we provide a description of the dataset and baseline results for both tasks.

Decision-making under distribution shift is a central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL), where training and deployment environments differ. We study this problem through the lens of robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs), which optimize performance against adversarial transition dynamics. Our focus is the online setting, where the agent has only limited interaction with the environment, making sample efficiency and exploration especially critical. Policy optimization, despite its success in standard RL, remains theoretically and empirically underexplored in robust RL. To bridge this gap, we propose Distributionally Robust Regularized Policy Optimization algorithm (DR-RPO), a model-free online policy optimization method that learns robust policies with sublinear regret. To enable tractable optimization within the softmax policy class, DR-RPO incorporates reference-policy regularization, yielding RMDP variants that are doubly constrained in both transitions and policies. To scale to large state-action spaces, we adopt the d-rectangular linear MDP formulation and combine linear function approximation with an upper confidence bonus for optimistic exploration. We provide theoretical guarantees showing that policy optimization can achieve polynomial suboptimality bounds and sample efficiency in robust RL, matching the performance of value-based approaches. Finally, empirical results across diverse domains corroborate our theory and demonstrate the robustness of DR-RPO.

In machine learning, generalization against distribution shifts -- where deployment conditions diverge from the training scenarios -- is crucial, particularly in fields like climate modeling, biomedicine, and autonomous driving. The emergence of foundation models, distinguished by their extensive pretraining and task versatility, has led to an increased interest in their adaptability to distribution shifts. GPT-4V(ision) acts as the most advanced publicly accessible multimodal foundation model, with extensive applications across various domains, including anomaly detection, video understanding, image generation, and medical diagnosis. However, its robustness against data distributions remains largely underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study rigorously evaluates GPT-4V's adaptability and generalization capabilities in dynamic environments, benchmarking against prominent models like CLIP and LLaVA. We delve into GPT-4V's zero-shot generalization across 13 diverse datasets spanning natural, medical, and molecular domains. We further investigate its adaptability to controlled data perturbations and examine the efficacy of in-context learning as a tool to enhance its adaptation. Our findings delineate GPT-4V's capability boundaries in distribution shifts, shedding light on its strengths and limitations across various scenarios. Importantly, this investigation contributes to our understanding of how AI foundation models generalize to distribution shifts, offering pivotal insights into their adaptability and robustness. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/jameszhou-gl/gpt-4v-distribution-shift.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) followed by reinforcement learning (RL) has become a standard post-training paradigm for large language models. This paradigm provides a cold-start for RL exploration, avoiding the inefficiency of pure RL where on-policy sampling yields insufficient positive samples. However, in practice, existing approaches often use a small amount of data for SFT initialization compared to the RL phase, which can cause the model to fit the limited samples and shift away from its pre-trained distribution. This distribution shift impedes the model's ability to effectively explore during subsequent RL training. To address this challenge, we propose that in low-data regimes, SFT should prioritize activating task-relevant capabilities rather than memorizing specific content. Along this line, we propose EKSFT (Entropy-KL Selective Fine-Tuning), which selectively masks tokens that exhibit either high entropy or high KL divergence from a reference model. By excluding these high-uncertainty, distribution-shifting tokens from imitation, EKSFT injects task-specific knowledge while preserving the integrity of the model's pre-trained distribution. Empirical evaluations on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that EKSFT consistently outperforms standard SFT. Further RL fine-tuning from the EKSFT model yields consistently better post-RL performance, indicating improved exploration for the RL stage. Our codes and datasets are available at https://github.com/MINE-USTC/EKSFT.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Generative policies trained with human demonstrations can autonomously accomplish multimodal, long-horizon tasks. However, during inference, humans are often removed from the policy execution loop, limiting the ability to guide a pre-trained policy towards a specific sub-goal or trajectory shape among multiple predictions. Naive human intervention may inadvertently exacerbate distribution shift, leading to constraint violations or execution failures. To better align policy output with human intent without inducing out-of-distribution errors, we propose an Inference-Time Policy Steering (ITPS) framework that leverages human interactions to bias the generative sampling process, rather than fine-tuning the policy on interaction data. We evaluate ITPS across three simulated and real-world benchmarks, testing three forms of human interaction and associated alignment distance metrics. Among six sampling strategies, our proposed stochastic sampling with diffusion policy achieves the best trade-off between alignment and distribution shift. Videos are available at https://yanweiw.github.io/itps/.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) is a compelling framework for learning optimal policies from past experiences without additional interaction with the environment. Nevertheless, offline RL inevitably faces the problem of distributional shifts, where the states and actions encountered during policy execution may not be in the training dataset distribution. A common solution involves incorporating conservatism into the policy or the value function to safeguard against uncertainties and unknowns. In this work, we focus on achieving the same objectives of conservatism but from a different perspective. We propose COmpositional COnservatism with Anchor-seeking (COCOA) for offline RL, an approach that pursues conservatism in a compositional manner on top of the transductive reparameterization (Netanyahu et al., 2023), which decomposes the input variable (the state in our case) into an anchor and its difference from the original input. Our COCOA seeks both in-distribution anchors and differences by utilizing the learned reverse dynamics model, encouraging conservatism in the compositional input space for the policy or value function. Such compositional conservatism is independent of and agnostic to the prevalent behavioral conservatism in offline RL. We apply COCOA to four state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms and evaluate them on the D4RL benchmark, where COCOA generally improves the performance of each algorithm. The code is available at https://github.com/runamu/compositional-conservatism.

Large language model post-training relies on reinforcement learning to improve model capability and alignment quality. However, the off-policy training paradigm introduces distribution shift, which often pushes the policy beyond the trust region, leading to training instabilities manifested as fluctuations in policy entropy and unstable gradients. Although PPO-Clip mitigates this issue through importance clipping, it still overlooks the global distributional shift of actions. To address these challenges, we propose using the entropy ratio between the current and previous policies as a new global metric that effectively quantifies the relative change in policy exploration throughout updates. Building on this metric, we introduce an Entropy Ratio Clipping (ERC) mechanism that imposes bidirectional constraints on the entropy ratio. This stabilizes policy updates at the global distribution level and compensates for the inability of PPO-clip to regulate probability shifts of un-sampled actions. We integrate ERC into both DAPO and GPPO reinforcement learning algorithms. Experiments across multiple benchmarks show that ERC consistently improves performance.

Although action recognition systems can achieve top performance when evaluated on in-distribution test points, they are vulnerable to unanticipated distribution shifts in test data. However, test-time adaptation of video action recognition models against common distribution shifts has so far not been demonstrated. We propose to address this problem with an approach tailored to spatio-temporal models that is capable of adaptation on a single video sample at a step. It consists in a feature distribution alignment technique that aligns online estimates of test set statistics towards the training statistics. We further enforce prediction consistency over temporally augmented views of the same test video sample. Evaluations on three benchmark action recognition datasets show that our proposed technique is architecture-agnostic and able to significantly boost the performance on both, the state of the art convolutional architecture TANet and the Video Swin Transformer. Our proposed method demonstrates a substantial performance gain over existing test-time adaptation approaches in both evaluations of a single distribution shift and the challenging case of random distribution shifts. Code will be available at https://github.com/wlin-at/ViTTA.

Estimating the test performance of a model, possibly under distribution shift, without having access to the ground-truth labels is a challenging, yet very important problem for the safe deployment of machine learning algorithms in the wild. Existing works mostly rely on information from either the outputs or the extracted features of neural networks to estimate a score that correlates with the ground-truth test accuracy. In this paper, we investigate -- both empirically and theoretically -- how the information provided by the gradients can be predictive of the ground-truth test accuracy even under distribution shifts. More specifically, we use the norm of classification-layer gradients, backpropagated from the cross-entropy loss after only one gradient step over test data. Our intuition is that these gradients should be of higher magnitude when the model generalizes poorly. We provide the theoretical insights behind our approach and the key ingredients that ensure its empirical success. Extensive experiments conducted with various architectures on diverse distribution shifts demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/Renchunzi-Xie/GdScore

Pixel-based reinforcement learning agents often fail under purely visual distribution shift even when latent dynamics and rewards are unchanged, but existing benchmarks entangle multiple sources of shift and hinder systematic analysis. We introduce KAGE-Env, a JAX-native 2D platformer that factorizes the observation process into independently controllable visual axes while keeping the underlying control problem fixed. By construction, varying a visual axis affects performance only through the induced state-conditional action distribution of a pixel policy, providing a clean abstraction for visual generalization. Building on this environment, we define KAGE-Bench, a benchmark of six known-axis suites comprising 34 train-evaluation configuration pairs that isolate individual visual shifts. Using a standard PPO-CNN baseline, we observe strong axis-dependent failures, with background and photometric shifts often collapsing success, while agent-appearance shifts are comparatively benign. Several shifts preserve forward motion while breaking task completion, showing that return alone can obscure generalization failures. Finally, the fully vectorized JAX implementation enables up to 33M environment steps per second on a single GPU, enabling fast and reproducible sweeps over visual factors. Code: https://avanturist322.github.io/KAGEBench/.

We propose a method for adapting neural networks to distribution shifts at test-time. In contrast to training-time robustness mechanisms that attempt to anticipate and counter the shift, we create a closed-loop system and make use of a test-time feedback signal to adapt a network on the fly. We show that this loop can be effectively implemented using a learning-based function, which realizes an amortized optimizer for the network. This leads to an adaptation method, named Rapid Network Adaptation (RNA), that is notably more flexible and orders of magnitude faster than the baselines. Through a broad set of experiments using various adaptation signals and target tasks, we study the efficiency and flexibility of this method. We perform the evaluations using various datasets (Taskonomy, Replica, ScanNet, Hypersim, COCO, ImageNet), tasks (depth, optical flow, semantic segmentation, classification), and distribution shifts (Cross-datasets, 2D and 3D Common Corruptions) with promising results. We end with a discussion on general formulations for handling distribution shifts and our observations from comparing with similar approaches from other domains.

Distribution shifts -- where the training distribution differs from the test distribution -- can substantially degrade the accuracy of machine learning (ML) systems deployed in the wild. Despite their ubiquity in the real-world deployments, these distribution shifts are under-represented in the datasets widely used in the ML community today. To address this gap, we present WILDS, a curated benchmark of 10 datasets reflecting a diverse range of distribution shifts that naturally arise in real-world applications, such as shifts across hospitals for tumor identification; across camera traps for wildlife monitoring; and across time and location in satellite imaging and poverty mapping. On each dataset, we show that standard training yields substantially lower out-of-distribution than in-distribution performance. This gap remains even with models trained by existing methods for tackling distribution shifts, underscoring the need for new methods for training models that are more robust to the types of distribution shifts that arise in practice. To facilitate method development, we provide an open-source package that automates dataset loading, contains default model architectures and hyperparameters, and standardizes evaluations. Code and leaderboards are available at https://wilds.stanford.edu.

Offline-to-online reinforcement learning (RL) is a training paradigm that combines pre-training on a pre-collected dataset with fine-tuning in an online environment. However, the incorporation of online fine-tuning can intensify the well-known distributional shift problem. Existing solutions tackle this problem by imposing a policy constraint on the policy improvement objective in both offline and online learning. They typically advocate a single balance between policy improvement and constraints across diverse data collections. This one-size-fits-all manner may not optimally leverage each collected sample due to the significant variation in data quality across different states. To this end, we introduce Family Offline-to-Online RL (FamO2O), a simple yet effective framework that empowers existing algorithms to determine state-adaptive improvement-constraint balances. FamO2O utilizes a universal model to train a family of policies with different improvement/constraint intensities, and a balance model to select a suitable policy for each state. Theoretically, we prove that state-adaptive balances are necessary for achieving a higher policy performance upper bound. Empirically, extensive experiments show that FamO2O offers a statistically significant improvement over various existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the D4RL benchmark. Codes are available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/FamO2O.

Long-horizon LM agents learn from multi-turn interaction, where a single early mistake can alter the subsequent state distribution and derail the whole trajectory. Existing recipes fall short in complementary ways: supervised fine-tuning provides dense teacher supervision but suffers from covariate shift because it is trained on off-policy teacher trajectories; while reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards avoids this off-policy mismatch by learning from on-policy rollouts but with only sparse outcome feedback. We address this dilemma by revisiting Dataset Aggregation (DAgger) for multi-turn LM agents: the algorithm collects trajectories through a turn-level interpolation of student and teacher policies, and the student is then trained on these trajectories using supervised labels provided by the teacher. By directly interacting with environments, we expose the model to realistic states likely to be encountered during deployment, thereby effectively mitigating covariate shift. Besides, since the student is learned by mimicking the teacher's behavior, it receives rich feedback during learning. To demonstrate DAgger enjoys the benefits of both worlds, we tested the algorithm to train a software-engineering agent with 4B- and 8B-scale student models. On SWE-bench Verified, our DAgger-style training improves over the strongest post-training baseline by +3.9 points at 4B and +3.6 points at 8B. The resulting 4B agent reaches 27.3%, outperforming representative published 8B SWE-agent systems, while the 8B agent achieves 29.8%, surpassing SWE-Gym-32B and coming within 5 points of stronger 32B-scale agents. Together with consistent gains on the held-out SWE-Gym split, these results suggest the effectiveness of DAgger for modern long-horizon LM agents.

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general wrapper that can be combined with any black box method that produces point predictions of the unseen label or estimated quantiles of its distribution. While previous conformal inference methods rely on the assumption that the data points are exchangeable, our adaptive approach provably achieves the desired coverage frequency over long-time intervals irrespective of the true data generating process. We accomplish this by modelling the distribution shift as a learning problem in a single parameter whose optimal value is varying over time and must be continuously re-estimated. We test our method, adaptive conformal inference, on two real world datasets and find that its predictions are robust to visible and significant distribution shifts.

To improve the sample efficiency of policy-gradient based reinforcement learning algorithms, we propose implicit distributional actor-critic (IDAC) that consists of a distributional critic, built on two deep generator networks (DGNs), and a semi-implicit actor (SIA), powered by a flexible policy distribution. We adopt a distributional perspective on the discounted cumulative return and model it with a state-action-dependent implicit distribution, which is approximated by the DGNs that take state-action pairs and random noises as their input. Moreover, we use the SIA to provide a semi-implicit policy distribution, which mixes the policy parameters with a reparameterizable distribution that is not constrained by an analytic density function. In this way, the policy's marginal distribution is implicit, providing the potential to model complex properties such as covariance structure and skewness, but its parameter and entropy can still be estimated. We incorporate these features with an off-policy algorithm framework to solve problems with continuous action space and compare IDAC with state-of-the-art algorithms on representative OpenAI Gym environments. We observe that IDAC outperforms these baselines in most tasks. Python code is provided.

Low latent prediction error does not establish that a world model distinguishes the consequences of its actions. We introduce an evaluation protocol that traces the same intervention through simulator state, raster observations, target embeddings, and predictor outputs. Exact simulator-state forks in a controlled deformable-physics testbed reveal distinct bottlenecks. Changed commands alter particle motion, yet 41.5% of one-step raster pairs are identical. Observation loss is not the whole explanation: among 579 high-visibility counterfactuals, median predictor-to-target response is 0.0051 and 0.0217 across two seeds, falling to 0.0027 and 0.0116 after variance normalization. An isotropic state perturbation matched to the target counterfactual embedding shift produces 190x and 53x larger predictor changes on the same visible pairs, isolating action-path under-use rather than a dead or globally shrunk predictor. MSE-only training gives 8.36x lower 10-step latent error in matched seeds, but in spectrally concentrated spaces; one VICReg target encoder is also strongly concentrated, so neither error nor rank alone certifies physical state. Finally, stiffness remains near chance even from full-resolution rasters and mechanical state while privileged material parameters decode perfectly, indicating weak identifiability under this excitation rather than encoder discard. These results motivate auditing physical effect, observation visibility, representation geometry, and action dependence separately.

Distribution shift presents a significant challenge in machine learning, where models often underperform during the test stage when faced with a different distribution than the one they were trained on. This paper focuses on domain shifts, which occur when the model is applied to new domains that are different from the ones it was trained on, and propose a new approach called D^3G. Unlike previous methods that aim to learn a single model that is domain invariant, D^3G leverages domain similarities based on domain metadata to learn domain-specific models. Concretely, D^3G learns a set of training-domain-specific functions during the training stage and reweights them based on domain relations during the test stage. These domain relations can be directly obtained and learned from domain metadata. Under mild assumptions, we theoretically prove that using domain relations to reweight training-domain-specific functions achieves stronger out-of-domain generalization compared to the conventional averaging approach. Empirically, we evaluate the effectiveness of D^3G using real-world datasets for tasks such as temperature regression, land use classification, and molecule-protein binding affinity prediction. Our results show that D^3G consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift, this behavior remains understudied for GNNs. Hence, we begin with a case study on CI calibration under controlled structural and feature distribution shifts and demonstrate that increased expressivity or model size do not always lead to improved CI performance. Consequently, we instead advocate for the use of epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to modulate CIs. To this end, we propose G-DeltaUQ, a new single model UQ method that extends the recently proposed stochastic centering framework to support structured data and partial stochasticity. Evaluated across covariate, concept, and graph size shifts, G-DeltaUQ not only outperforms several popular UQ methods in obtaining calibrated CIs, but also outperforms alternatives when CIs are used for generalization gap prediction or OOD detection. Overall, our work not only introduces a new, flexible GNN UQ method, but also provides novel insights into GNN CIs on safety-critical tasks.

Distribution shift in medical imaging remains a central bottleneck for the clinical translation of medical AI. Failure to address it can lead to severe performance degradation in unseen environments and exacerbate health inequities. Existing methods for domain adaptation are inherently limited by exhausting predefined possibilities through simulated shifts or pseudo-supervision. Such strategies struggle in the open-ended and unpredictable real world, where distribution shifts are effectively infinite. To address this challenge, we adopt the "Rank Stability of Positive Regions" as a working assumption under distribution shift, and use it to derive robust spatial hints for source-only segmentation. Guided by this assumption, we propose CRISP, a model-agnostic framework that, unlike deployment-time adaptation, requires no test-time parameter updates and no target-domain data--a target-free, plug-in refinement framework that segments with frozen weights. Rather than using ranking to directly output masks, CRISP exploits the stability of probability rankings under distribution shift to derive robust spatial priors. Via latent feature perturbation, perturbation-invariant high-grade regions define a high-precision (HP) core, while voxels that remain potentially foreground under at least one perturbation define a high-recall (HR) support; these dual priors are then recursively refined under perturbation. We then design an iterative training framework that progressively squeezes HP and HR toward the final segmentation. Extensive evaluations on multi-center cardiac MRI and CT-based lung vessel segmentation demonstrate CRISP's superior robustness, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods with striking HD95 reductions of up to 0.14 (7.0% improvement), 1.90 (13.1% improvement), and 8.39 (38.9% improvement) pixels across multi-center, demographic, and modality shifts, respectively.

Implicit policies parameterized by generative models, such as Diffusion Policy, have become the standard for policy learning and Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models in robotics. However, these approaches often suffer from high computational cost, exposure bias, and unstable inference dynamics, which lead to divergence under distribution shifts. Energy-Based Models (EBMs) address these issues by learning energy landscapes end-to-end and modeling equilibrium dynamics, offering improved robustness and reduced exposure bias. Yet, policies parameterized by EBMs have historically struggled to scale effectively. Recent work on Energy-Based Transformers (EBTs) demonstrates the scalability of EBMs to high-dimensional spaces, but their potential for solving core challenges in physically embodied models remains underexplored. We introduce a new energy-based architecture, EBT-Policy, that solves core issues in robotic and real-world settings. Across simulated and real-world tasks, EBT-Policy consistently outperforms diffusion-based policies, while requiring less training and inference computation. Remarkably, on some tasks it converges within just two inference steps, a 50x reduction compared to Diffusion Policy's 100. Moreover, EBT-Policy exhibits emergent capabilities not seen in prior models, such as zero-shot recovery from failed action sequences using only behavior cloning and without explicit retry training. By leveraging its scalar energy for uncertainty-aware inference and dynamic compute allocation, EBT-Policy offers a promising path toward robust, generalizable robot behavior under distribution shifts.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is increasingly used to post-train vision-language-action (VLA) models, yet how RL reshapes these policies remains poorly understood. We find that RL across widely used flow-based VLA models, including π_{0.5} and GR00T~N1.5/N1.6, on LIBERO, ManiSkill, MetaWorld, and CALVIN induces substantially lower-rank parameter updates that are highly concentrated in the action expert's Timestep Modules, a small and previously overlooked component. Through systematic module-replacement experiments, we further show that these modules capture a disproportionate share of the performance gains from RL. We then characterize what is encoded in these Timestep Modules. First, we show that RL specializes them to the discrete denoising timesteps used during rollouts, and that this discrete-timestep training underlies the low-rank updates. Second, we find that among their outputs, the shift vector changes most distinctly under RL, and through probing, we show that shift update directions strongly predict task success (ROC-AUC up to 99.6%). Third, we find that the geometry of shift updates reflects task relationships, as their pairwise similarity correlates with cross-task transfer patterns. Building on these findings, we show that steering along shift update directions further improves RL-trained policies without additional RL training. Overall, we provide a systematic understanding of how RL reshapes VLA policies by studying how learned signals are encoded in parameter space, offering insights into more efficient and interpretable VLA post-training.

In dynamic programming (DP) and reinforcement learning (RL), an agent learns to act optimally in terms of expected long-term return by sequentially interacting with its environment modeled by a Markov decision process (MDP). More generally in distributional reinforcement learning (DRL), the focus is on the whole distribution of the return, not just its expectation. Although DRL-based methods produced state-of-the-art performance in RL with function approximation, they involve additional quantities (compared to the non-distributional setting) that are still not well understood. As a first contribution, we introduce a new class of distributional operators, together with a practical DP algorithm for policy evaluation, that come with a robust MDP interpretation. Indeed, our approach reformulates through an augmented state space where each state is split into a worst-case substate and a best-case substate, whose values are maximized by safe and risky policies respectively. Finally, we derive distributional operators and DP algorithms solving a new control task: How to distinguish safe from risky optimal actions in order to break ties in the space of optimal policies?

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents in offensive cybersecurity. In this paper, we reveal an interesting phenomenon: different agents exhibit distinct attack patterns. Specifically, each agent exhibits an attack-selection bias, disproportionately concentrating its efforts on a narrow subset of attack families regardless of prompt variations. To systematically quantify this behavior, we introduce CyBiasBench, a comprehensive 630-session benchmark that evaluates five agents on three targets and four prompt conditions with ten attack families. We identify explicit bias across agents, with different dominant attack families and varying entropy levels in their attack-family allocation distributions. Such bias is better characterized as a trait of the agents, rather than a factor associated with the attack success rate. Furthermore, our experiments reveal a bias momentum effect, where agents resist explicit steering toward attack families that conflict with their bias. This forced distribution shift does not yield measurable improvements in attack performance. To ensure reproducibility and facilitate future research, we release an interactive result dashboard at https://trustworthyai.co.kr/CyBiasBench/ and a reproducibility artifact with aggregated session-level statistics and full evaluation scripts at https://github.com/Harry24k/CyBiasBench.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

Prior work has analyzed the robustness of visual encoders to image transformations and corruptions, particularly in cases where such alterations are not seen during training. When this occurs, they introduce a form of distribution shift at test time, often leading to performance degradation. The primary focus has been on severe corruptions that, when applied aggressively, distort useful signals necessary for accurate semantic predictions. We take a different perspective by analyzing parameters of the image acquisition process and transformations that may be subtle or even imperceptible to the human eye. We find that such parameters are systematically encoded in the learned visual representations and can be easily recovered. More strikingly, their presence can have a profound impact, either positively or negatively, on semantic predictions. This effect depends on whether there is a strong correlation or anti-correlation between semantic labels and these acquisition-based or processing-based labels. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/ryan-caesar-ramos/visual-encoder-traces

Policy-shift distillation reuses the difference between a teacher's log probabilities before and after reinforcement learning (RL) as supervision on student-generated trajectories. However, this endpoint policy shift cannot reveal whether local action preferences evolved consistently during teacher training. The same endpoint shift can result from early and late shifts that reinforce or partially cancel each other. We investigate whether agreement between early and late teacher policy shifts can guide selective transfer. We introduce Waypoint-guided On-Policy Distillation (Waypoint-OPD), which uses an intermediate teacher checkpoint from the same RL run to compare early and late shifts in relative action preferences at student-visited prefixes. We gate the endpoint shift according to the directional agreement between the early and late shifts, suppressing it when they point in opposing directions. Compared with endpoint-only transfer, our method requires only one additional frozen-teacher scoring pass. Using RL-trained Qwen3-4B teachers, we evaluate our method with Qwen3-8B, Qwen3-14B, and Qwen3-30B-A3B as student models in mathematical and code reasoning. In all six domain--student settings, Waypoint-OPD achieves the highest domain-average score among the compared distillation methods. Ablations with the Qwen3-8B student show that removing or shuffling gates reduces mathematical reasoning performance. These results support the use of directional agreement between early and late teacher policy shifts to weight the endpoint shift during student training.

Current machine learning systems are brittle in the face of distribution shifts (DS), where the target distribution that the system is tested on differs from the source distribution used to train the system. This problem of robustness to DS has been studied extensively in the field of domain adaptation. For deep neural networks, a popular framework for unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) is domain matching, in which algorithms try to align the marginal distributions in the feature or output space. The current theoretical understanding of these methods, however, is limited and existing theoretical results are not precise enough to characterize their performance in practice. In this paper, we derive new bounds based on optimal transport that analyze the UDA problem. Our new bounds include a term which we dub as entanglement, consisting of an expectation of Wasserstein distance between conditionals with respect to changing data distributions. Analysis of the entanglement term provides a novel perspective on the unoptimizable aspects of UDA. In various experiments with multiple models across several DS scenarios, we show that this term can be used to explain the varying performance of UDA algorithms.

Transfer learning with a small amount of target data is an effective and common approach to adapting a pre-trained model to distribution shifts. In some situations, target data labels may be expensive to obtain, so we may only have access to a limited number of target data points. To make the most of a very small target dataset, we propose a lightweight, sample-efficient approach that learns a diverse set of features and adapts to a target distribution by interpolating these features. Our approach, Project and Probe (Pro^2), first learns a linear projection that maps a pre-trained embedding onto orthogonal directions while being predictive of labels in the source dataset. The goal of this step is to learn a variety of predictive features, so that at least some of them remain useful after distribution shift. Pro^2 then learns a linear classifier on top of these projected features using a small target dataset. Theoretically, we find that Pro^2 results in more sample-efficient generalization by inducing a favorable bias-variance tradeoff. Our experiments on four datasets, with multiple distribution shift settings for each, show that Pro^2 improves performance by 5-15% when given limited target data compared to prior methods such as standard linear probing.

Post-training pretrained autoregressive models (ARMs) into masked diffusion models (MDMs) has emerged as a cost-effective way to overcome the limitations of sequential generation. Yet the internal algorithmic changes induced by this shift remain poorly understood, leaving it unclear whether post-trained MDMs acquire genuine bidirectional reasoning or merely repackage autoregressive heuristics. We address this question through a comparative circuit analysis of ARMs and their MDM counterparts. Our analysis reveals a systematic "mechanism shift" that depends on the structural nature of the task. MDMs largely preserve autoregressive circuitry for tasks driven by local causal dependencies, but for global planning tasks they abandon initialized pathways and exhibit distinct rewiring with increased early-layer processing. At the semantic level, we observe a transition from sharp, localized specialization in ARMs to distributed integration in MDMs. These findings show that diffusion post-training does not simply adjust model parameters, but reorganizes internal computation to support non-sequential global planning.

Vision--Language--Action (VLA) policies such as π_{0.5} and OpenVLA perform well on many manipulation tasks, but they are often reactive: the next action is predicted from the current observation, instruction, and proprioceptive state. This assumption breaks down in stage-dependent manipulation, where visually similar states may require different actions depending on latent task progress and previous interaction outcomes. We argue that such tasks require not only memory, but dynamics-aware belief updates: the policy should preserve task progress during stable or occluded phases and revise its belief near contact, release, or subgoal transitions. We introduce Temporally Conditioned Memory-Fusion Policies (TFP), a lightweight memory-action framework for VLA backbones. TFP maintains an episode-local task-progress belief with Liquid Time-Constant dynamics and injects the updated belief directly into the flow-matching action decoder through adaptive modulation. This lets temporally accumulated context shape the generated action chunk, rather than serving only as passive history context. With a 3.3B-parameter model, TFP improves the average success rate from \(96.9\%\) to \(98.75\%\) on LIBERO and from \(91.4\%\) to \(93.77\%\) on LIBERO-plus. On the memory-focused MIKASA ShellGameTouch diagnostic, TFP achieves success up to \(75.0\%\). Mechanistic analyses show that write-gain changes near manipulation events are about \(6\times\) larger than far non-event phases, and hidden-state interventions show that the belief causally modulates generated action chunks. These results suggest that compact, event-sensitive memory dynamics can improve VLA policies under occlusion, visual perturbation, and stage-dependent task structure.

JEPA-family world models use a static predictor whose weights do not adapt when test-time dynamics diverge from training. We compare two mechanisms for incorporating accumulated experience into a JEPA predictor under distribution shift: operand-side injection, where a compressed experience representation is added as a residual to the predictor's hidden state (EI-JEPA), and operator-side modulation, where the same representation generates low-rank weight deltas via LoRA applied to the predictor's weights (EPM-JEPA). On a pre-registered comparison (Moving MNIST, gravity shift), EPM-JEPA (D_shift^{n=50} = 0.7848 +/- 0.0078, three seeds) differs from EI-JEPA (0.8238) by delta = 4.74% - Outcome C: a null result - by our stated criterion, a valid outcome. As a secondary, non-pre-registered observation, EPM-JEPA improves 1.90% over a no-memory baseline (0.8000), consistently across seeds, while EI-JEPA underperforms the baseline, indicating the benefit is specific to weight-level modulation. Our primary contribution is a mechanism analysis: the D_shift^{n=50} trajectory reflects three independent dynamical processes - buffer cycling, EMA target drift, and an intrinsic LoRA settling transient of +0.021 - rather than convergence to equilibrium. These findings motivate PEM-JEPA, a physics-grounded successor addressing this dynamical-peak limitation.

Mechanistic interpretability aims to explain a model's behavior by identifying causally responsible internal structures. Dictionary-based explainers such as sparse autoencoders and transcoders are a primary tool, but their faithfulness under out-of-distribution (OOD) shift has received little systematic attention. We show that distribution shift rotates the subspace that the model actively uses, misaligning the explainer's dictionary trained on in-distribution (ID) activations. We formalize this misalignment as the faithfulness gap, a geometric distance between the ID dictionary and the OOD-active subspace, and show that it controls OOD faithfulness degradation. To reduce this gap, we propose the Geometry-Adaptive Explainer (GAE), which realigns the explainer's dictionary with the OOD-active subspace while preserving the original feature structure. This requires only unlabeled OOD activations and no gradient updates. We prove that GAE improves over the unadapted ID explainer, with excess loss bounded quadratically by the second-moment shift. Empirically, GAE even matches or surpasses all training-based baselines in causal faithfulness across multiple models and OOD settings.

Comparison of fine-tuning models with reinforcement learning (RL) and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) reveals that, despite similar performance at a new task, RL preserves prior knowledge and capabilities significantly better. We find that the degree of forgetting is determined by the distributional shift, measured as the KL-divergence between the fine-tuned and base policy evaluated on the new task. Our analysis reveals that on-policy RL is implicitly biased towards KL-minimal solutions among the many that solve the new task, whereas SFT can converge to distributions arbitrarily far from the base model. We validate these findings through experiments with large language models and robotic foundation models and further provide theoretical justification for why on-policy RL updates lead to a smaller KL change. We term this principle RL's Razor: among all ways to solve a new task, RL prefers those closest in KL to the original model.

Counterfactual fairness audits of clinical language-model agents report a flip rate: how often an action changes when only the patient's demographic descriptor changes. Part of that rate is not demographic. A stochastic agent also changes its own action when nothing changes, and a flip rate cannot be interpreted without knowing how often. We measured it. Re-running one condition ten times over sixteen synthetic vignettes at default sampling changed a clinical agent's action in 8.7 percent of replicate pairs, from 2.2 percent for intensive-care escalation to 17.9 percent for controlled-substance caution, an output given no operational criteria. Across six models from five vendors, pooled floors ranged from 2.5 to 23.7 percent; in this panel neither disclosed size, vendor, nor hosting ordered them. The floor depends on the decoding configuration: majority voting over five draws removed 39 percent of it (95 percent confidence interval (CI) 18 to 64); at temperature 0 three of four locally served models showed no disagreement, but a hosted model still did. We also show that, for a binary action, the flip rate expected under no demographic effect equals the floor and a real effect adds only its square, so a flip rate inside the floor is not evidence of fairness, and direction must be tested with a signed paired test. We give a four-step reporting procedure and release FairMedAgent, the harness, with its protocol, vignettes and analysis scripts, so any team can measure the floor for its own agent.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) faithfulness detectors are widely used to audit reasoning models, yet a detector is itself a predictor whose verdicts are treated as stable properties. We ask whether a detector is faithful to itself under distribution shift. We formalize meta-faithfulness as an invariance principle: a valid detector must return identical verdicts on traces that differ only by transformations preserving ground-truth faithfulness. We prove three results: (i) no detector using only intervention-response profiles can separate faithful from epiphenomenal mechanisms with identical signatures; (ii) any detector relying on shift-sensitive features violates invariance at a rate independent of its in-distribution accuracy; (iii) an asymptotic certified selective-risk guarantee enables confident abstention. We operationalize the principle in FaithShift, a stress-test protocol spanning ten shift axes, and propose SIFT, a hidden-state trajectory detector trained with cross-environment invariance objectives and certified abstention. Across 14,996 traces, four domains, and eight models, three findings emerge. First, transfer collapse is real: all existing detectors show gaps geq 0.15 AUROC. Second, the dominant bottleneck is sampling stochasticity, not shift: over 80% of detector instability stems from random seed variation, falsifying our preregistered prediction that shift-attributable violations exceed 0.25. Third, SIFT cuts invariance violations by 64% over the best single-seed baseline, but a four-seed ensemble of any detector narrows the margin to 0.01 (indistinguishable at matched coverage, p=0.21), and SIFT needs a 51% abstention rate. Cross-model transfer degrades from within-family to cross-family to open-weight-to-API, partly closed by multi-model training. We offer a framework for auditing auditors: the real barrier is detector variance, not distribution shift.

In an effort to better understand the different ways in which the discount factor affects the optimization process in reinforcement learning, we designed a set of experiments to study each effect in isolation. Our analysis reveals that the common perception that poor performance of low discount factors is caused by (too) small action-gaps requires revision. We propose an alternative hypothesis that identifies the size-difference of the action-gap across the state-space as the primary cause. We then introduce a new method that enables more homogeneous action-gaps by mapping value estimates to a logarithmic space. We prove convergence for this method under standard assumptions and demonstrate empirically that it indeed enables lower discount factors for approximate reinforcement-learning methods. This in turn allows tackling a class of reinforcement-learning problems that are challenging to solve with traditional methods.

Direct On-Policy Distillation (Direct-OPD) transfers reinforcement-learning-induced policy improvements from a small model to a larger student by using the token-level log-ratio between post-RL and pre-RL checkpoints as dense supervision on the student's own rollouts. This transfer rewards the policy shift at every state, yet the log-ratio measures only relative change: it can stay fixed even as the probability mass that both checkpoints assign to the student's candidate tokens vanishes. Through an exact construction, we show that the Direct-OPD reward and its update can remain unchanged while the Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) and both KL directions between the checkpoints vanish with this mass, and we note that a small JSD bounds how much the teacher's behavior changed. Motivated by this analysis, we propose Selective Supervision for Direct-OPD (S^2D-OPD), which ranks student-sampled states by their teacher-reference JSD and masks Direct-OPD supervision at low-divergence states, retaining only the top 10% of states per response. Across two teacher pairs and four student models ranging from 1.7B to 8B parameters, S^2D-OPD improves held-out accuracy over dense Direct-OPD on AIME and HMMT benchmarks in seven of eight settings and matches it in the eighth, without extra forward passes.

We introduce four new real-world distribution shift datasets consisting of changes in image style, image blurriness, geographic location, camera operation, and more. With our new datasets, we take stock of previously proposed methods for improving out-of-distribution robustness and put them to the test. We find that using larger models and artificial data augmentations can improve robustness on real-world distribution shifts, contrary to claims in prior work. We find improvements in artificial robustness benchmarks can transfer to real-world distribution shifts, contrary to claims in prior work. Motivated by our observation that data augmentations can help with real-world distribution shifts, we also introduce a new data augmentation method which advances the state-of-the-art and outperforms models pretrained with 1000 times more labeled data. Overall we find that some methods consistently help with distribution shifts in texture and local image statistics, but these methods do not help with some other distribution shifts like geographic changes. Our results show that future research must study multiple distribution shifts simultaneously, as we demonstrate that no evaluated method consistently improves robustness.

A widely used technique for improving policies is success conditioning, in which one collects trajectories, identifies those that achieve a desired outcome, and updates the policy to imitate the actions taken along successful trajectories. This principle appears under many names -- rejection sampling with SFT, goal-conditioned RL, Decision Transformers -- yet what optimization problem it solves, if any, has remained unclear. We prove that success conditioning exactly solves a trust-region optimization problem, maximizing policy improvement subject to a χ^2 divergence constraint whose radius is determined automatically by the data. This yields an identity: relative policy improvement, the magnitude of policy change, and a quantity we call action-influence -- measuring how random variation in action choices affects success rates -- are exactly equal at every state. Success conditioning thus emerges as a conservative improvement operator. Exact success conditioning cannot degrade performance or induce dangerous distribution shift, but when it fails, it does so observably, by hardly changing the policy at all. We apply our theory to the common practice of return thresholding, showing this can amplify improvement, but at the cost of potential misalignment with the true objective.

Time series forecasting (TSF) increasingly drives decisions in transportation, energy, finance, healthcare, and infrastructure, yet current evaluation remains overly narrow: standard benchmarks reward low held-out error, while robustness studies typically reduce failure to Gaussian noise, random masking, or bounded adversarial perturbations. This obscures the real failure modes of deployed forecasting systems. Input-side anomalies are not merely noisier inputs: they often reflect structured events that alter temporal dynamics, break cross-variable dependencies, induce regime shifts, or propagate from faulty sensors to downstream decisions. These semantic, causal, and system-level failures cannot be faithfully captured by i.i.d. perturbations alone. The rise of TSF foundation models makes this evaluation gap more urgent, as unauditable pretraining corpora make held-out generalization increasingly unreliable. We therefore advocate scenario-grounded stress testing. Each test instance should include historical inputs and future targets, together with a semantic scenario, an explicit failure operator, and a measurable difficulty level. This shift makes evaluation interpretable, attributable, and deployment-relevant and friendly, enabling the community to ask not only which model is accurate, but under what conditions it fails and why.

Robot foundation models achieve strong in-distribution performance but often degrade under visual distribution shifts. When learning to generate actions from pretrained visual representations, models may exploit task-irrelevant visual cues that correlate with demonstrated actions within the training distribution. Such vision-action shortcuts can undermine generalization when these correlations change under distribution shifts. Mitigating these shortcuts requires constraining how visual information is used for action generation while preserving task-relevant spatial information. We propose Latent Interface Training (LIT), a framework-agnostic two-stage strategy that first establishes a spatial-goal-conditioned action prior without images, then constrains visual conditioning through a pose-supervised latent interface. Stage 1 trains the action expert to generate action chunks conditioned on language, robot state, and each demonstrated chunk's terminal SE(3) end-effector pose, learning goal-directed action generation independently of visual cues. Stage 2 introduces a latent interface that aggregates visual and semantic representations and serves as the pretrained action expert's only visual conditioning pathway. The interface is supervised to reconstruct the terminal pose previously used to condition Stage 1, encouraging it to retain the goal-relevant spatial information needed for action generation. Across four vision-language-action and world-action architectures (Pi0.5, MolmoAct2, FAST-WAM, and ImageWAM), LIT improves overall LIBERO-Plus success by 3.87-10.70 percentage points while preserving or improving average LIBERO success. Real-world evaluations show 13.30-16.70 percentage-point gains in success aggregated across three tasks under unseen camera configurations, lighting variations, and distractors.

We propose a new method for generating realistic datasets with distribution shifts using any decoder-based generative model. Our approach systematically creates datasets with varying intensities of distribution shifts, facilitating a comprehensive analysis of model performance degradation. We then use these generated datasets to evaluate the performance of various commonly used networks and observe a consistent decline in performance with increasing shift intensity, even when the effect is almost perceptually unnoticeable to the human eye. We see this degradation even when using data augmentations. We also find that enlarging the training dataset beyond a certain point has no effect on the robustness and that stronger inductive biases increase robustness.

Training Data Attribution (TDA) seeks to trace a model's predictions back to its training data. The gold standard for TDA relies on causal interventions, observing how a model changes when data is added or removed, but repeated retraining is computationally challenging for Large Language Models (LLMs). Consequently, most approaches approximate this effect in the parameter space using gradients. However, tracking gradients across billions of parameters is not only prohibitively expensive but relies on local approximations. In this work, we propose a shift: rather than estimating parameter changes, we model the functional effect of training data in the activation space. We introduce STRIDE (Steering-based Training Data Influence Decomposition), a framework that formulates TDA as a sparse recovery problem in the spirit of compressive sensing. STRIDE learns lightweight "steering operators" that mimic the behavioral shift caused by training on data subsets. By measuring how these operators perturb test predictions, we recover individual training example influences via sparse linear decomposition. STRIDE achieves state-of-the-art for LLM pre-training attribution while being an order of magnitude (13times) faster than previous art. We further validate its practical utility through downstream applications including data selection, data contamination, and qualitative analysis.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

During the preference optimization of large language models (LLMs), distribution shifts may arise between newly generated model samples and the data used to train the reward model (RM). This shift reduces the efficacy of the RM, which in turn negatively impacts the performance of the policy model (PM). To address this challenge, we propose Mutual-Taught, a self-training method that iteratively improves both the PM and RM without requiring additional human annotation. Our approach mirrors the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. In the E-step, the PM is updated using feedback from the current RM, guiding the PM toward a better approximation of the latent optimal preference distribution. In the M-step, we update the RM by constructing training data from the outputs of the PM before and after the E-step update. This process ensures that the RM adapts to the evolving policy distribution. Experimental results demonstrate that this iterative approach leads to consistent improvements in both models. Specifically, our 8B policy model, LLaMA-3-8B-Instruct-MT, achieves a length-controlled win rate of 54.1\% on AlpacaEval-2, while our 8B reward model, FsfairX-LLaMA3-RM-MT, performs on par with GPT-4o-2024-08-06 on RewardBench.

Imitation learning models for robotic tasks typically rely on multi-modal inputs, such as RGB images, language, and proprioceptive states. While proprioception is intuitively important for decision-making and obstacle avoidance, simply incorporating all proprioceptive states leads to a surprising degradation in imitation learning performance. In this work, we identify the underlying issue as the proprioception shift problem, where the distributions of proprioceptive states diverge significantly between training and deployment. To address this challenge, we propose a domain adaptation framework that bridges the gap by utilizing rollout data collected during deployment. Using Wasserstein distance, we quantify the discrepancy between expert and rollout proprioceptive states and minimize this gap by adding noise to both sets of states, proportional to the Wasserstein distance. This strategy enhances robustness against proprioception shifts by aligning the training and deployment distributions. Experiments on robotic manipulation tasks demonstrate the efficacy of our method, enabling the imitation policy to leverage proprioception while mitigating its adverse effects. Our approach outperforms the naive solution which discards proprioception, and other baselines designed to address distributional shifts.

The recent trend towards Personalized Federated Learning (PFL) has garnered significant attention as it allows for the training of models that are tailored to each client while maintaining data privacy. However, current PFL techniques primarily focus on modeling the conditional distribution heterogeneity (i.e. concept shift), which can result in suboptimal performance when the distribution of input data across clients diverges (i.e. covariate shift). Additionally, these techniques often lack the ability to adapt to unseen data, further limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, FedGMM, which utilizes Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to effectively fit the input data distributions across diverse clients. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation utilizing a federated Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which is solved in closed form and does not assume gradient similarity. Furthermore, FedGMM possesses an additional advantage of adapting to new clients with minimal overhead, and it also enables uncertainty quantification. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method in both PFL classification and novel sample detection.

Recent offline meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) methods typically utilize task-dependent behavior policies (e.g., training RL agents on each individual task) to collect a multi-task dataset. However, these methods always require extra information for fast adaptation, such as offline context for testing tasks. To address this problem, we first formally characterize a unique challenge in offline meta-RL: transition-reward distribution shift between offline datasets and online adaptation. Our theory finds that out-of-distribution adaptation episodes may lead to unreliable policy evaluation and that online adaptation with in-distribution episodes can ensure adaptation performance guarantee. Based on these theoretical insights, we propose a novel adaptation framework, called In-Distribution online Adaptation with uncertainty Quantification (IDAQ), which generates in-distribution context using a given uncertainty quantification and performs effective task belief inference to address new tasks. We find a return-based uncertainty quantification for IDAQ that performs effectively. Experiments show that IDAQ achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Meta-World ML1 benchmark compared to baselines with/without offline adaptation.

Diffusion models have shown promising ability in generating high-quality time series (TS) data. Despite the initial success, existing works mostly focus on the authenticity of data at the individual level, but pay less attention to preserving the population-level properties on the entire dataset. Such population-level properties include value distributions for each dimension and distributions of certain functional dependencies (e.g., cross-correlation, CC) between different dimensions. For instance, when generating house energy consumption TS data, the value distributions of the outside temperature and the kitchen temperature should be preserved, as well as the distribution of CC between them. Preserving such TS population-level properties is critical in maintaining the statistical insights of the datasets, mitigating model bias, and augmenting downstream tasks like TS prediction. Yet, it is often overlooked by existing models. Hence, data generated by existing models often bear distribution shifts from the original data. We propose Population-aware Diffusion for Time Series (PaD-TS), a new TS generation model that better preserves the population-level properties. The key novelties of PaD-TS include 1) a new training method explicitly incorporating TS population-level property preservation, and 2) a new dual-channel encoder model architecture that better captures the TS data structure. Empirical results in major benchmark datasets show that PaD-TS can improve the average CC distribution shift score between real and synthetic data by 5.9x while maintaining a performance comparable to state-of-the-art models on individual-level authenticity.

In many real-world applications, graph-structured data used for training and testing have differences in distribution, such as in high energy physics (HEP) where simulation data used for training may not match real experiments. Graph domain adaptation (GDA) is a method used to address these differences. However, current GDA primarily works by aligning the distributions of node representations output by a single graph neural network encoder shared across the training and testing domains, which may often yield sub-optimal solutions. This work examines different impacts of distribution shifts caused by either graph structure or node attributes and identifies a new type of shift, named conditional structure shift (CSS), which current GDA approaches are provably sub-optimal to deal with. A novel approach, called structural reweighting (StruRW), is proposed to address this issue and is tested on synthetic graphs, four benchmark datasets, and a new application in HEP. StruRW has shown significant performance improvement over the baselines in the settings with large graph structure shifts, and reasonable performance improvement when node attribute shift dominates.

In reinforcement learning an agent interacts with the environment by taking actions and observing the next state and reward. When sampled probabilistically, these state transitions, rewards, and actions can all induce randomness in the observed long-term return. Traditionally, reinforcement learning algorithms average over this randomness to estimate the value function. In this paper, we build on recent work advocating a distributional approach to reinforcement learning in which the distribution over returns is modeled explicitly instead of only estimating the mean. That is, we examine methods of learning the value distribution instead of the value function. We give results that close a number of gaps between the theoretical and algorithmic results given by Bellemare, Dabney, and Munos (2017). First, we extend existing results to the approximate distribution setting. Second, we present a novel distributional reinforcement learning algorithm consistent with our theoretical formulation. Finally, we evaluate this new algorithm on the Atari 2600 games, observing that it significantly outperforms many of the recent improvements on DQN, including the related distributional algorithm C51.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, trained via flow-matching or diffusion objectives, excel at learning complex behaviors from large-scale, multi-modal datasets (e.g., human teleoperation, scripted policies). However, since VLAs incorporate diverse data modes in the pre-training stage, and the finetuning dataset often contains demonstration data collected in a kinematically suboptimal or undesirable way, it exists redundant action modes that are irrelevant to the success action modes of the downstream task. Specifically, we observe a critical inference-time fragility among various sampled noises after supervised finetuning of pre-trained VLAs. In this paper, we attribute this instability to the distribution shift between the VLA policy and the policy induced by stable success modes of the downstream task dataset. Thus, we propose TACO, a test-time-scaling (TTS) framework that applies a lightweight pseudo-count estimator as a high-fidelity verifier of action chunks. The VLA models integrated with TACO can execute the actions with maximum pseudo-count from all sampled action chunks, thereby preventing distribution shifts while preserving the generalization ability of VLAs since the constraint is applied only during inference. Our method resembles the classical anti-exploration principle in offline reinforcement learning (RL), and being gradient-free, it incurs significant computational benefits compared to RL update, especially for flow or diffusion-based VLAs which are difficult to perform RL update due to denoising process. Extensive experiments across four simulation benchmarks (RoboTwin2.0, Robotwin, LIBERO, SimplerEnv) and a dual-arm platform demonstrate that our method significantly improves the inference stability and success rates in downstream-task adaptations.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to adapt a pre-trained model to the target domain in a batch-by-batch manner during inference. While label distributions often exhibit imbalances in real-world scenarios, most previous TTA approaches typically assume that both source and target domain datasets have balanced label distribution. Due to the fact that certain classes appear more frequently in certain domains (e.g., buildings in cities, trees in forests), it is natural that the label distribution shifts as the domain changes. However, we discover that the majority of existing TTA methods fail to address the coexistence of covariate and label shifts. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel label shift adapter that can be incorporated into existing TTA approaches to deal with label shifts during the TTA process effectively. Specifically, we estimate the label distribution of the target domain to feed it into the label shift adapter. Subsequently, the label shift adapter produces optimal parameters for the target label distribution. By predicting only the parameters for a part of the pre-trained source model, our approach is computationally efficient and can be easily applied, regardless of the model architectures. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that integrating our strategy with TTA approaches leads to substantial performance improvements under the joint presence of label and covariate shifts.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Diffusion policies have recently emerged as a powerful framework for robotic manipulation. However, like other behavior cloning methods, they remain vulnerable to distributional shift, often requiring human-in-the-loop interventions to correct failures during deployment. These interactions naturally provide paired supervision in the form of the robot's undesired actions and the human teacher's corrective actions. Yet existing data aggregation pipelines and standard behavior cloning losses largely ignore this negative signal from undesired actions, leading to overfitting to teacher's actions and an increasing reliance on costly expert data. To address this limitation, we propose Set-Supervised Diffusion Policy (SDP), a novel learning framework that utilizes contrastive action-chunk data to train diffusion policies from human corrections. From paired positive and negative action-chunks, SDP constructs a set of desired action-chunks and designs a training pipeline that encourages the diffusion policy to align with the set. Through extensive experiments across multiple robotic manipulation tasks, we demonstrate that SDP consistently improves policy performance, with particularly strong gains in robustness to noisy data. Moreover, SDP induces high-quality aggregated datasets, enabling more efficient and reliable policy learning from human-in-the-loop corrections. Our code is available at https://set-supervised-diffusion-policy.github.io/.

Deep learning has achieved tremendous success with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. However, the performance of neural networks often degenerates drastically when encountering out-of-distribution (OoD) data, i.e., when training and test data are sampled from different distributions. While a plethora of algorithms have been proposed for OoD generalization, our understanding of the data used to train and evaluate these algorithms remains stagnant. In this work, we first identify and measure two distinct kinds of distribution shifts that are ubiquitous in various datasets. Next, through extensive experiments, we compare OoD generalization algorithms across two groups of benchmarks, each dominated by one of the distribution shifts, revealing their strengths on one shift as well as limitations on the other shift. Overall, we position existing datasets and algorithms from different research areas seemingly unconnected into the same coherent picture. It may serve as a foothold that can be resorted to by future OoD generalization research. Our code is available at https://github.com/ynysjtu/ood_bench.

Machine learning systems often experience a distribution shift between training and testing. In this paper, we introduce a simple variational objective whose optima are exactly the set of all representations on which risk minimizers are guaranteed to be robust to any distribution shift that preserves the Bayes predictor, e.g., covariate shifts. Our objective has two components. First, a representation must remain discriminative for the task, i.e., some predictor must be able to simultaneously minimize the source and target risk. Second, the representation's marginal support needs to be the same across source and target. We make this practical by designing self-supervised objectives that only use unlabelled data and augmentations to train robust representations. Our objectives give insights into the robustness of CLIP, and further improve CLIP's representations to achieve SOTA results on DomainBed.

Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning (GCRL) enables agents to autonomously acquire diverse behaviors, but faces major challenges in visual environments due to high-dimensional, semantically sparse observations. In the online setting, where agents learn representations while exploring, the latent space evolves with the agent's policy, to capture newly discovered areas of the environment. However, without incentivization to maximize state coverage in the representation, classical approaches based on auto-encoders may converge to latent spaces that over-represent a restricted set of states frequently visited by the agent. This is exacerbated in an intrinsic motivation setting, where the agent uses the distribution encoded in the latent space to sample the goals it learns to master. To address this issue, we propose to progressively enforce distributional shifts towards a uniform distribution over the full state space, to ensure a full coverage of skills that can be learned in the environment. We introduce DRAG (Distributionally Robust Auto-Encoding for GCRL), a method that combines the β-VAE framework with Distributionally Robust Optimization. DRAG leverages an adversarial neural weighter of training states of the VAE, to account for the mismatch between the current data distribution and unseen parts of the environment. This allows the agent to construct semantically meaningful latent spaces beyond its immediate experience. Our approach improves state space coverage and downstream control performance on hard exploration environments such as mazes and robotic control involving walls to bypass, without pre-training nor prior environment knowledge.

We study the best arm identification problem in a stochastic environment with a novel form of adversarial perturbations, which we coin Shifting Means. While classically the mean rewards of the K arms are stable in time, in Shifting Means only the gaps boldsymbolΔ between mean rewards are stable, while their common shift may be determined adversarially in each round. The objective of the learner is to identify the best arm with high probability while minimizing sample complexity (the fixed confidence setting). Handling shifts requires new tools: we show that algorithms employing a Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) stopping rule, including the popular Track-and-Stop, fail under time-varying shifts. Instead, we propose Importance Weights for Shifting Means (ISM). Assuming means bounded by U and σ^2-sub-Gaussian rewards, we show ISM to be δ-correct and to enjoy a sample complexity bound of order K (σ^2 + U^2) Δ_{min}^{-2} ln 1δ. We also present a matching (up to constant factors) worst-case lower bound and evaluate our results empirically.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Diffusion models offer flexible motion generation, but translating this flexibility into feedback-responsive humanoid control remains challenging. Hierarchical systems steer motion through references that may exceed a separate tracker's capabilities, leaving recovery and physical execution largely to the tracker. Action-only diffusion generates actions directly but lacks an explicit future-state trajectory for test-time motion objectives. Joint state-action diffusion provides this representation, yet representative controllers often depend on privileged full-body states, and support for learned behavior selection and test-time motion steering remains fragmented. We present PredActor, a predictive action diffusion policy that brings these complementary steering capabilities into one directly executed policy using proprioceptive observations. Conditioned on proprioceptive history and optional task context, PredActor jointly generates executable actions and an internal future-state trajectory. Classifier-free guidance strengthens text-conditioned behavior, while classifier guidance steers predicted states toward test-time objectives. Only actions are executed, without a separate motion-reference tracker or externally estimated full-body states as policy inputs. In simulation, PredActor reaches all 15 destination targets and achieves a text retrieval score of 0.580, compared with 0.373 for conditional action diffusion, with similar observed disturbance survival. To make this guided policy practical onboard, rolling denoising and computation-preserving runtime optimizations reduce the complete callback to 16.790 ms median and 19.383 ms p95 on a Jetson Orin NX, both below the 20 ms control period. We deploy PredActor on a Unitree G1; evaluations across simulation and physical hardware demonstrate text-conditioned motion, disturbance response, joystick control, and semantic interpolation.

Faced with distribution shift between training and test set, we wish to detect and quantify the shift, and to correct our classifiers without test set labels. Motivated by medical diagnosis, where diseases (targets) cause symptoms (observations), we focus on label shift, where the label marginal p(y) changes but the conditional p(x| y) does not. We propose Black Box Shift Estimation (BBSE) to estimate the test distribution p(y). BBSE exploits arbitrary black box predictors to reduce dimensionality prior to shift correction. While better predictors give tighter estimates, BBSE works even when predictors are biased, inaccurate, or uncalibrated, so long as their confusion matrices are invertible. We prove BBSE's consistency, bound its error, and introduce a statistical test that uses BBSE to detect shift. We also leverage BBSE to correct classifiers. Experiments demonstrate accurate estimates and improved prediction, even on high-dimensional datasets of natural images.

Can out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization be predicted from a trained model's weights alone, without any target-domain data? Existing representational similarity metrics (CKA, SVCCA, RSA) compare activations rather than forecast generalization. We show they are provably insensitive to structural rerouting in the computational graph, the very change distribution shift induces. We close this gap with the Circuit Alignment Score (CAS), which compares class-specific circuits across domains via graph kernels, decomposed into same-class coherence and cross-class confusion. Casting CAS as a Lebesgue integral over the domain distribution, we prove its Monte Carlo estimate recovers the ground-truth ranking of learners by OOD accuracy, with pairwise inversion error vanishing at rate O(1/M), where M is the number of sampled domains. Across 48 learners on PACS, CAS attains 0.88 rank correlation with OOD accuracy, versus 0.58 (CKA), 0.23 (SVCCA), and 0.14 (RSA), with similar trends on other benchmarks and even against data-dependent methods, making it the first provably consistent predictor of distributional robustness requiring neither target-domain data nor labels. The code is available at: https://github.com/ayanban011/ACE

In reinforcement learning (RL), function approximation errors are known to easily lead to the Q-value overestimations, thus greatly reducing policy performance. This paper presents a distributional soft actor-critic (DSAC) algorithm, which is an off-policy RL method for continuous control setting, to improve the policy performance by mitigating Q-value overestimations. We first discover in theory that learning a distribution function of state-action returns can effectively mitigate Q-value overestimations because it is capable of adaptively adjusting the update stepsize of the Q-value function. Then, a distributional soft policy iteration (DSPI) framework is developed by embedding the return distribution function into maximum entropy RL. Finally, we present a deep off-policy actor-critic variant of DSPI, called DSAC, which directly learns a continuous return distribution by keeping the variance of the state-action returns within a reasonable range to address exploding and vanishing gradient problems. We evaluate DSAC on the suite of MuJoCo continuous control tasks, achieving the state-of-the-art performance.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

The task of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is notoriously ill-defined. Earlier works focused on new-class detection, aiming to identify label-altering data distribution shifts, also known as "semantic shift." However, recent works argue for a focus on failure detection, expanding the OOD evaluation framework to account for label-preserving data distribution shifts, also known as "covariate shift." Intriguingly, under this new framework, complex OOD detectors that were previously considered state-of-the-art now perform similarly to, or even worse than the simple maximum softmax probability baseline. This raises the question: what are the latest OOD detectors actually detecting? Deciphering the behavior of OOD detection algorithms requires evaluation datasets that decouples semantic shift and covariate shift. To aid our investigations, we present ImageNet-OOD, a clean semantic shift dataset that minimizes the interference of covariate shift. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that OOD detectors are more sensitive to covariate shift than to semantic shift, and the benefits of recent OOD detection algorithms on semantic shift detection is minimal. Our dataset and analyses provide important insights for guiding the design of future OOD detectors.

Anomaly detection (AD) is a crucial machine learning task that aims to learn patterns from a set of normal training samples to identify abnormal samples in test data. Most existing AD studies assume that the training and test data are drawn from the same data distribution, but the test data can have large distribution shifts arising in many real-world applications due to different natural variations such as new lighting conditions, object poses, or background appearances, rendering existing AD methods ineffective in such cases. In this paper, we consider the problem of anomaly detection under distribution shift and establish performance benchmarks on three widely-used AD and out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization datasets. We demonstrate that simple adaptation of state-of-the-art OOD generalization methods to AD settings fails to work effectively due to the lack of labeled anomaly data. We further introduce a novel robust AD approach to diverse distribution shifts by minimizing the distribution gap between in-distribution and OOD normal samples in both the training and inference stages in an unsupervised way. Our extensive empirical results on the three datasets show that our approach substantially outperforms state-of-the-art AD methods and OOD generalization methods on data with various distribution shifts, while maintaining the detection accuracy on in-distribution data.

Action chunking improves the performance of policies learned by behavioural cloning, and several mechanisms have been proposed to explain why, including temporal consistency, horizon reduction, representation learning, and reduced error compounding. We instead study what happens to an action error once it enters the system. At each state, we inject a small action error and measure how fast it grows or shrinks under two execution regimes: open-loop, where the rest of the chunk is replayed without replanning, and closed-loop, where the policy replans after the perturbation. The fitted rate labels each state as contracting, expanding, or unresolved. Across twelve manipulation tasks from three benchmark suites, we find that confidently stable states are rare, while error amplification is common among states whose propagation rate can be resolved. We further find that the measured propagation rate depends strongly on the fitting horizon: amplification is typically front-loaded, so short windows can overestimate longer-horizon propagation. Finally, we train predictors on these labels and find that a state's open-loop regime can be recovered from camera frames and proprioception alone, while its closed-loop propagation is only partially recoverable because it also depends on how the policy acts after the perturbation. These results suggest that error-compounding arguments alone do not provide a complete account of action chunking: neither passive open-loop dynamics nor policy replanning consistently contracts an injected error, and replanning rarely turns open-loop amplification into confident contraction. This suggests that closed-loop reactivity should be trained explicitly, using perturbation- and tree-coverage-oriented training to expose policies to deviations they must recover from, rather than expected to emerge reliably from standard imitation learning.

Understanding the performance of machine learning models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Motivated by this, there is a growing focus on curating benchmark datasets that capture distribution shifts. While valuable, the existing benchmarks are limited in that many of them only contain a small number of shifts and they lack systematic annotation about what is different across different shifts. We present MetaShift--a collection of 12,868 sets of natural images across 410 classes--to address this challenge. We leverage the natural heterogeneity of Visual Genome and its annotations to construct MetaShift. The key construction idea is to cluster images using its metadata, which provides context for each image (e.g. "cats with cars" or "cats in bathroom") that represent distinct data distributions. MetaShift has two important benefits: first, it contains orders of magnitude more natural data shifts than previously available. Second, it provides explicit explanations of what is unique about each of its data sets and a distance score that measures the amount of distribution shift between any two of its data sets. We demonstrate the utility of MetaShift in benchmarking several recent proposals for training models to be robust to data shifts. We find that the simple empirical risk minimization performs the best when shifts are moderate and no method had a systematic advantage for large shifts. We also show how MetaShift can help to visualize conflicts between data subsets during model training.

We study the variance of stochastic policy gradients (SPGs) with many action samples per state. We derive a many-actions optimality condition, which determines when many-actions SPG yields lower variance as compared to a single-action agent with proportionally extended trajectory. We propose Model-Based Many-Actions (MBMA), an approach leveraging dynamics models for many-actions sampling in the context of SPG. MBMA addresses issues associated with existing implementations of many-actions SPG and yields lower bias and comparable variance to SPG estimated from states in model-simulated rollouts. We find that MBMA bias and variance structure matches that predicted by theory. As a result, MBMA achieves improved sample efficiency and higher returns on a range of continuous action environments as compared to model-free, many-actions, and model-based on-policy SPG baselines.

This paper aims to overcome a major obstacle in scaling RL for reasoning with LLMs, namely the collapse of policy entropy. Such phenomenon is consistently observed across vast RL runs without entropy intervention, where the policy entropy dropped sharply at the early training stage, this diminished exploratory ability is always accompanied with the saturation of policy performance. In practice, we establish a transformation equation R=-a*e^H+b between entropy H and downstream performance R. This empirical law strongly indicates that, the policy performance is traded from policy entropy, thus bottlenecked by its exhaustion, and the ceiling is fully predictable H=0, R=-a+b. Our finding necessitates entropy management for continuous exploration toward scaling compute for RL. To this end, we investigate entropy dynamics both theoretically and empirically. Our derivation highlights that, the change in policy entropy is driven by the covariance between action probability and the change in logits, which is proportional to its advantage when using Policy Gradient-like algorithms. Empirical study shows that, the values of covariance term and entropy differences matched exactly, supporting the theoretical conclusion. Moreover, the covariance term stays mostly positive throughout training, further explaining why policy entropy would decrease monotonically. Through understanding the mechanism behind entropy dynamics, we motivate to control entropy by restricting the update of high-covariance tokens. Specifically, we propose two simple yet effective techniques, namely Clip-Cov and KL-Cov, which clip and apply KL penalty to tokens with high covariances respectively. Experiments show that these methods encourage exploration, thus helping policy escape entropy collapse and achieve better downstream performance.

Chunk-autoregressive video world models typically condition each generated chunk on one action. An action received during sampling must therefore wait for the next chunk, condition future solver evaluations on a state produced under the previous action, or trigger rollback that repeats completed evaluations. We introduce ActionSplice, an inference framework that formulates this problem as Counterfactual State Transport (CST). A lightweight corrector transports the interrupted backbone-native representation toward the matched state induced by the revised action at the same solver step. The world model and sampler remain frozen, and sampling resumes without replaying completed evaluations. The retargeting variant CST*{R} updates the entire active chunk, while the temporal-splicing variant CST*{T} preserves a temporal prefix and updates only the suffix. Across minWM-Wan Action2V and HY-WM1.5, CST*{R} reduces rollback-relative LPIPS by 61.5% and 75.9% relative to direct condition swapping. CST*{T} reduces suffix LPIPS by 56.1% and 77.5%, respectively, while providing 2.73times and 1.69times pixel-ready speedups over waiting. Under the HY-WorldPlay protocol, CST_{R} obtains a PSNR of 25.66 dB, an SSIM of 0.6902, and an LPIPS of 0.1337 against the original rollout.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

Modern deep convolutional networks (CNNs) are often criticized for not generalizing under distributional shifts. However, several recent breakthroughs in transfer learning suggest that these networks can cope with severe distribution shifts and successfully adapt to new tasks from a few training examples. In this work we study the interplay between out-of-distribution and transfer performance of modern image classification CNNs for the first time and investigate the impact of the pre-training data size, the model scale, and the data preprocessing pipeline. We find that increasing both the training set and model sizes significantly improve the distributional shift robustness. Furthermore, we show that, perhaps surprisingly, simple changes in the preprocessing such as modifying the image resolution can significantly mitigate robustness issues in some cases. Finally, we outline the shortcomings of existing robustness evaluation datasets and introduce a synthetic dataset SI-Score we use for a systematic analysis across factors of variation common in visual data such as object size and position.

What happens to an LLM agent's tool choice when the reliable tool silently changes within an ongoing session? We borrow set-shifting from cognitive psychology to study how well agents adapt to hidden reliability shifts. Our benchmark mounts tool-skill libraries with redundancies, where many tools solve the same task but differ in hidden reliability. In our evaluation framework, a branched schedule shifts the reliable tool group at hidden boundaries and pairs every shift with a no-shift control. We find that agents, by default, settle on a small recurring routine within a few turns of each boundary, with call shares concentrating on a few discrete values after each reliability shift. We score the set-shifting accuracy for each agent trajectory: the joint probability of routing to the target tool group in every post-shift window. We test open-weight LLMs in an open-source agentic harness and find qualitatively distinct failure modes across the same set of routines. We also find that set framing, how the toolset presents the alternatives as competing or complementary, shifts the routing dynamics.

Although current fake audio detection approaches have achieved remarkable success on specific datasets, they often fail when evaluated with datasets from different distributions. Previous studies typically address distribution shift by focusing on using extra data or applying extra loss restrictions during training. However, these methods either require a substantial amount of data or complicate the training process. In this work, we propose a stable learning-based training scheme that involves a Sample Weight Learning (SWL) module, addressing distribution shift by decorrelating all selected features via learning weights from training samples. The proposed portable plug-in-like SWL is easy to apply to multiple base models and generalizes them without using extra data during training. Experiments conducted on the ASVspoof datasets clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of SWL in generalizing different models across three evaluation datasets from different distributions.

While Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models demonstrate impressive capabilities in robotic manipulation, their memoryless nature renders them brittle to test-time environment shifts, particularly hardware shifts caused by wear or imperfect calibration. Enabling these models to self-adapt during deployment without requiring continuous on-site recalibration remains a critical bottleneck for real-world scalability. In this work, we introduce Self-Adaptive VLA, a novel post-training recipe that enables the policy to iteratively adapt to deployment-time hardware shifts leveraging its own rollouts as context. To do so, we first collect policy rollouts under deliberately injected hardware shifts. We then transform the base policy's training data into shift-conditioned expert demonstrations by pre-compensating the expert actions for these known shifts. Next, we introduce a lightweight, plug-in context encoder that compresses the context, including visual observation, proprioception, and actions in the shifted environment, into a latent context token. This token modulates the policy through adaptive layer normalization (AdaLN). Furthermore, we find that context tokens can be ensembled, allowing the policy to iteratively self-correct and mitigate failures step by step. Extensive experiments across four precision-critical bi-manual and dexterous manipulation tasks show that Self-Adaptive VLA recovers over 80% of the base policy's performance under hardware shifts, such as actuation bias and joint encoder offsets. Moreover, Self-Adaptive VLA enables more robust deployment to new workstations compared to the base policy. Our approach provides a pathway for robust large-scale real-world robot deployments and easier maintenance. See videos at https://icefoxzhx.github.io/self-adaptive-vla.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants have become increasingly popular for aligning language models with human preferences. These methods aim to teach models to better distinguish between chosen (or preferred) and rejected (or dispreferred) responses. However, prior research has identified that the probability of chosen responses often decreases during training, and this phenomenon is known as likelihood displacement. To tackle this challenge, in this work we introduce \method to controllably shift the distribution of the chosen probability. Then, we show that \method exhibits a fundamental trade-off between improving the chosen probability and sacrificing the reward margin, as supported by both theoretical analysis and experimental validation. Furthermore, we demonstrate the superiority of \method over DPO on downstream tasks such as MT-Bench and a designed win rate experiment. We believe this study shows that the likelihood displacement issue of DPO can be effectively mitigated with a simple, theoretically grounded solution. Our code is available at https://github.com/Meaquadddd/DPO-Shift.

Generalizing policies across different domains with dynamics mismatch poses a significant challenge in reinforcement learning. For example, a robot learns the policy in a simulator, but when it is deployed in the real world, the dynamics of the environment may be different. Given the source and target domain with dynamics mismatch, we consider the online dynamics adaptation problem, in which case the agent can access sufficient source domain data while online interactions with the target domain are limited. Existing research has attempted to solve the problem from the dynamics discrepancy perspective. In this work, we reveal the limitations of these methods and explore the problem from the value difference perspective via a novel insight on the value consistency across domains. Specifically, we present the Value-Guided Data Filtering (VGDF) algorithm, which selectively shares transitions from the source domain based on the proximity of paired value targets across the two domains. Empirical results on various environments with kinematic and morphology shifts demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance compared to prior approaches.

A fine-tuned Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policy can easily place the alphabet soup in the basket on command, just as it saw during fine-tuning. However, if the basket is shifted five centimeters to the left, it drops the soup off the table. We developed an interpretability pipeline to investigate what such a policy is computing. Injecting task A's activations into the action expert while the policy looks at task B's scene makes pi0.5 execute task A's motor trajectory in 99.6\% of episodes (n{=}1{,}968). The injected program is bound to absolute workspace coordinates and ignores the visible scene, which provides a mechanistic account of the perturbation brittleness that concurrent benchmarks report. The binding holds on a physical UR10e: directed replay redirects the commanded task in 26/26 rollouts in one direction and 18/26 in the other, with no-injection and random-direction controls at the floor, and once the source object is moved 10--15\,cm the arm grasps and releases at the recorded coordinates in 50/50 trials, picking up the wrong block when one sits there and closing on empty air when none does. Applying the same interventions to six VLAs on LIBERO, MetaWorld, SimplerEnv, and ALOHA over 420{,}000+ rollouts yields three further findings: every architecture encodes the instruction, and four of the five weight it below vision whenever the scene alone identifies the goal; under the standard replacement write-back the SAE pooling that preserves behavior is architecture-specific (pi0.5 per-token, SmolVLA indifferent), and goal selection and motor generation separate into VLM and expert pathways wherever the two are distinguishable. We release Action Atlas (https://action-atlas.com), an interactive platform covering all 520+ trained SAEs, 79 identified concepts, and the scored UR10e rollouts. Code: https://github.com/CWRU-AISM/action-atlas

Applying diffusion models in reinforcement learning for long-term planning has gained much attention recently. Several diffusion-based methods have successfully leveraged the modeling capabilities of diffusion for arbitrary distributions. These methods generate subsequent trajectories for planning and have demonstrated significant improvement. However, these methods are limited by their plain base distributions and their overlooking of the diversity of samples, in which different states have different returns. They simply leverage diffusion to learn the distribution of offline dataset, generate the trajectories whose states share the same distribution with the offline dataset. As a result, the probability of these models reaching the high-return states is largely dependent on the dataset distribution. Even equipped with the guidance model, the performance is still suppressed. To address these limitations, in this paper, we propose a novel method called CDiffuser, which devises a return contrast mechanism to pull the states in generated trajectories towards high-return states while pushing them away from low-return states to improve the base distribution. Experiments on 14 commonly used D4RL benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Temporal distribution shift (TDS) erodes the long-term accuracy of recommender systems, yet industrial practice still relies on periodic incremental training, which struggles to capture both stable and transient patterns. Existing approaches such as invariant learning and self-supervised learning offer partial solutions but often suffer from unstable temporal generalization, representation collapse, or inefficient data utilization. To address these limitations, we propose ELBO_TDS, a probabilistic framework that integrates seamlessly into industry-scale incremental learning pipelines. First, we identify key shifting factors through statistical analysis of real-world production data and design a simple yet effective data augmentation strategy that resamples these time-varying factors to extend the training support. Second, to harness the benefits of this extended distribution while preventing representation collapse, we model the temporal recommendation scenario using a causal graph and derive a self-supervised variational objective, ELBO_TDS, grounded in the causal structure. Extensive experiments supported by both theoretical and empirical analysis demonstrate that our method achieves superior temporal generalization, yielding a 2.33\% uplift in GMV per user and has been successfully deployed in Shopee Product Search. Code is available at https://github.com/FuCongResearchSquad/ELBO4TDS.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Multi-teacher on-policy distillation (MOPD) is used in two settings. In common-domain composition, several teachers score each student rollout from one prompt domain and their signals form a single target; in routed-domain distillation, prompts from different domains are assigned to the corresponding specialist. Both settings usually transfer each teacher's endpoint policy, which mixes what post-training changed with preferences inherited from the teacher's base. We introduce Δ-MOPD, which transfers each teacher's teacher-minus-base logit shift re-anchored at the student's frozen initialization, and compare it with endpoint supervision in both settings while holding teacher selection fixed. We first expose the mechanism that impedes endpoint transfer: inherited base pull can exceed the post-training shift. Removing it reduces the teacher-term norm ratio and target--student KL. Across our experiments, the results suggest that shift targets are particularly useful when teacher signals are combined at a state. With three composed teachers, Δ-MOPD exceeds endpoint composition by 4.11 Math and 1.95 five-benchmark points; with two, it matches endpoint accuracy. Under phased routing, it achieves higher mean performance in both phase orders and reduces the observed order gap from 10.50 to 6.42 points. Under interleaved routing, where each update involves one teacher, the two targets perform comparably. The phased results provide supporting evidence that the benefit may extend to signals accumulated across training phases. Target construction is thus an independent design axis in MOPD, complementary to teacher selection.

In settings such as fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, neural networks are often adapted under distribution shift. Standard adaptation methods typically optimize the target objective directly, inducing an abrupt change from the source training objective. This abrupt transition can distort learned representations, including features that may still be useful for the new task. We investigate whether a more gradual transition can improve adaptation. We propose loss smoothing, a simple approach that interpolates between the source and target training objectives at the start of adaptation. This smooth transition helps to preserve useful features from the source distribution while still enabling the model to specialize to the target distribution. Across controlled supervised shifts, pretrained vision adaptation, offline-to-online and online reinforcement learning, and language model fine-tuning, we find that loss smoothing consistently improves performance, suggesting that smoother objective transitions are a broadly useful tool for model adaptation.

Entities in real-world systems often evolve over time: users shift between information consumption patterns, researchers migrate between fields, and firms transition between financial risk states. When such systems are modeled as dynamic graphs, these transitions correspond to nodes whose class labels change between consecutive snapshots, which we call shifters. Correctly classifying shifters is often more consequential than classifying stable nodes with persistent labels, as detecting such transitions enables timely intervention in high-stakes settings. Yet, we identify a systematic failure mode across all major dynamic graph neural network architectures: shifter performance consistently lags behind stable nodes, with errors concentrated on the old label. Our structural analysis traces this failure to embedding inertia: neighborhood aggregation keeps shifter representations anchored to the old-class centroid, and this effect is strongest precisely where it is hardest to correct, namely for shifters whose neighborhoods remain aligned with the old class. Guided by this finding, we propose CHASE, a model-agnostic CHange-Aware framework for Shifting nodEs that wraps any dynamic GNN with targeted components for detecting label shifts and overriding stale neighborhood signals. CHASE consistently improves shifter performance across all tested models and datasets (up to 114.9% and 202.5% improvement on accuracy and F1 score, respectively) while preserving stable-node performance. We additionally contribute three dynamic graph benchmarks with naturally shifting labels, filling a gap in existing resources. The source code is available at https://github.com/jhkim611/CHASE

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) has recently emerged as a promising approach for tackling the robustness challenge under distribution shifts. However, the lack of consistent settings and systematic studies in prior literature hinders thorough assessments of existing methods. To address this issue, we present TTAB, a test-time adaptation benchmark that encompasses ten state-of-the-art algorithms, a diverse array of distribution shifts, and two evaluation protocols. Through extensive experiments, our benchmark reveals three common pitfalls in prior efforts. First, selecting appropriate hyper-parameters, especially for model selection, is exceedingly difficult due to online batch dependency. Second, the effectiveness of TTA varies greatly depending on the quality and properties of the model being adapted. Third, even under optimal algorithmic conditions, none of the existing methods are capable of addressing all common types of distribution shifts. Our findings underscore the need for future research in the field to conduct rigorous evaluations on a broader set of models and shifts, and to re-examine the assumptions behind the empirical success of TTA. Our code is available at https://github.com/lins-lab/ttab.

Large language model post-training methods such as supervised fine-tuning (SFT), reinforcement learning (RL), and distillation are often analyzed through their loss functions: maximum likelihood, policy gradients, forward KL, reverse KL, or related objective-level variants. We study a complementary factor: the state distribution on which supervision is applied. For an autoregressive policy, a state is a prompt plus generated prefix. SFT trains on fixed dataset states, while RL and on-policy distillation (OPD) train on states induced by the current learner. We formalize post-training as state-distribution shaping and run a controlled smallscale study using Qwen3-0.6B-Base on GSM8K, with TruthfulQA and MMLU as retention evaluations. Our results show three phenomena. First, a mild SFT run improves GSM8K with little forgetting, while a stress SFT run causes substantial retention loss. Second, OPD from a degraded SFT teacher surpasses that teacher on GSM8K, TruthfulQA, and MMLU, despite using the teacher as its only supervision source. Third, a lightweight on-policy RL run improves GSM8K while preserving retention. These results support a state-centric view of post-training: the source and locality of training states can be as important as the form of the supervision signal.

A user's movie, news, and dialogue histories differ in their native actions and outputs, yet each interaction supplies evidence that can update user memory. We study whether these histories can train one reusable update mechanism. An action-on-item schema pairs a mapped interaction role with a content embedding, allowing shared update parameters to operate on separate user states. We establish invariance to native relabeling, bounded state changes under item-embedding perturbations, and a pooled-training bound under explicit compatibility conditions. The Multi-Timescale State Hypothesis (MTSH) specifies how this evidence enters, persists, and is consumed; PerTIDE implements it with action gating, three state-space traces, fusion, and command-conditioned readout. On PENS, the same history encoder supports both next-news prediction and personalized headline generation. In a controlled PENS-to-MovieLens experiment, a frozen source-trained core exceeds an identically structured random core by 15.23 MRR points after fitting the same target consumer. On MIND, PerTIDE retains a 4.12-point MRR advantage over a same-input three-branch state-space control. Action, readout, and trace interventions identify complementary contributions to these gains. Together, the theory and experiments support learning history updates across compatible sources and reusing them through predictive and generative consumers.

High-reliability long-horizon robotic manipulation has traditionally relied on large-scale data and compute to understand complex real-world dynamics. However, we identify that the primary bottleneck to real-world robustness is not resource scale alone, but the distributional shift among the human demonstration distribution, the inductive bias learned by the policy, and the test-time execution distribution -- a systematic inconsistency that causes compounding errors in multi-stage tasks. To mitigate these inconsistencies, we propose χ_{0}, a resource-efficient framework with effective modules designated to achieve production-level robustness in robotic manipulation. Our approach builds off three technical pillars: (i) Model Arithmetic, a weight-space merging strategy that efficiently soaks up diverse distributions of different demonstrations, varying from object appearance to state variations; (ii) Stage Advantage, a stage-aware advantage estimator that provides stable, dense progress signals, overcoming the numerical instability of prior non-stage approaches; and (iii) Train-Deploy Alignment, which bridges the distribution gap via spatio-temporal augmentation, heuristic DAgger corrections, and temporal chunk-wise smoothing. χ_{0} enables two sets of dual-arm robots to collaboratively orchestrate long-horizon garment manipulation, spanning tasks from flattening, folding, to hanging different clothes. Our method exhibits high-reliability autonomy; we are able to run the system from arbitrary initial state for consecutive 24 hours non-stop. Experiments validate that χ_{0} surpasses the state-of-the-art π_{0.5} in success rate by nearly 250%, with only 20-hour data and 8 A100 GPUs. Code, data and models will be released to facilitate the community.

In this study, we investigate the DIstribution Correction Estimation (DICE) methods, an important line of work in offline reinforcement learning (RL) and imitation learning (IL). DICE-based methods impose state-action-level behavior constraint, which is an ideal choice for offline learning. However, they typically perform much worse than current state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods that solely use action-level behavior constraint. After revisiting DICE-based methods, we find there exist two gradient terms when learning the value function using true-gradient update: forward gradient (taken on the current state) and backward gradient (taken on the next state). Using forward gradient bears a large similarity to many offline RL methods, and thus can be regarded as applying action-level constraint. However, directly adding the backward gradient may degenerate or cancel out its effect if these two gradients have conflicting directions. To resolve this issue, we propose a simple yet effective modification that projects the backward gradient onto the normal plane of the forward gradient, resulting in an orthogonal-gradient update, a new learning rule for DICE-based methods. We conduct thorough theoretical analyses and find that the projected backward gradient brings state-level behavior regularization, which reveals the mystery of DICE-based methods: the value learning objective does try to impose state-action-level constraint, but needs to be used in a corrected way. Through toy examples and extensive experiments on complex offline RL and IL tasks, we demonstrate that DICE-based methods using orthogonal-gradient updates (O-DICE) achieve SOTA performance and great robustness.

The rapid deployment of AI systems in high-stakes domains, including those classified as high-risk under the The EU AI Act (Regulation (EU) 2024/1689), has intensified the need for reliable compliance auditing. For binary classifiers, regulatory risk assessment often relies on global fairness metrics such as the Disparate Impact ratio, widely used to evaluate potential discrimination. In typical auditing settings, the auditee provides a subset of its dataset to an auditor, while a supervisory authority may verify whether this subset is representative of the full underlying distribution. In this work, we investigate to what extent a malicious auditee can construct a fairness-compliant yet representative-looking sample from a non-compliant original distribution, thereby creating an illusion of fairness. We formalize this problem as a constrained distributional projection task and introduce mathematically grounded manipulation strategies based on entropic and optimal transport projections. These constructions characterize the minimal distributional shift required to satisfy fairness constraints. To counter such attacks, we formalize representativeness through distributional distance based statistical tests and systematically evaluate their ability to detect manipulated samples. Our analysis highlights the conditions under which fairness manipulation can remain statistically undetected and provides practical guidelines for strengthening supervisory verification. We validate our theoretical findings through experiments on standard tabular datasets for bias detection. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ValentinLafargue/Inspection.

Behavior-cloned diffusion policies are expressive but remain vulnerable to covariate shift: small deviations from demonstrated states can compound into task failure. Existing methods address this either by expanding the training distribution through expert corrections or synthetic augmentation, or by steering a frozen policy at test time with guidance from a learned model. The former can be expensive or assumption-dependent, while the latter discards the corrected trajectories after execution. We introduce ReGuide, a self-improving framework that treats guided rollouts as reusable on-policy recovery data. ReGuide first uses Phase-Conditioned Guidance (PCG) to generate corrective rollouts: it constructs phase-specific latent targets, applies guidance only in the drifted-but-recoverable regime, and guides through the estimated clean action to match the dynamics model's training distribution. Successful guided rollouts are then absorbed back into the policy through ReGuide-FT, which fine-tunes the current checkpoint, or ReGuide-FS, which retrains from scratch on the augmented dataset; the two can also be composed and iterated. On Robomimic Can, Square, Transport, and Tool Hang, ReGuide improves base-policy success by 1.3--7.7times, outperforms LPB in the test-time-only setting, and matched-data ablations show that the gains come from guided recovery data rather than additional rollouts alone.

Scalable reinforcement learning has popularized high-throughput sampling architectures, which significantly compresses the training time for off-policy methods in robotic locomotion. However, the rapid increase of data volume and update frequency undermines the stability of value-based methods and diminishes the plasticity of policy networks. To address these challenges, this work presents FastDSAC, a fast and high-performance variant of the Distributional Actor-Critic algorithm designed for parallel sampling scenarios. Specifically, we introduce a truncated Gaussian distribution to approximate the learned policy, which effectively excludes out-of-distribution actions that strain target value estimation while keeping necessary stochasticity for exploration. The proposed action constraint functions as an implicit regularization, which counteracts the plasticity loss typically caused by aggressive gradient updates. This preservation of network adaptability enhances sample efficiency, particularly in scenarios with a high update-to-data ratio, and accelerates the early training process. In contrast to prior fast reinforcement learning approaches that rely on discrete value distributions, our method utilizes a continuous Gaussian representation equipped with adaptive variance regulation, which improves value estimation accuracy by sampling confident and informative transitions. Extensive experiments on MuJoCo Playground and HumanoidBench demonstrate that FastDSAC not only stabilizes the overall training process but also achieves superior asymptotic performance and faster convergence compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Role-playing models (RPMs) are widely used in real-world applications but underperform when deployed in the wild. This degradation can be attributed to distribution shifts, including user, character, and dialogue compositional shifts. Existing methods like LLM-as-a-judge fall short in providing a fine-grained diagnosis of how these shifts affect RPM generalization, and thus there lack formal frameworks to characterize RPM generalization behaviors. To bridge these gaps, we introduce an information-theoretic metric, named reasoning-based effective mutual information difference (R-EMID), to measure RPM performance degradation in an interpretable way. We also derive an upper bound on R-EMID to predict the worst-case generalization performance of RPMs and theoretically reveal how various shifts contribute to the RPM performance degradation. Moreover, we propose a co-evolving reinforcement learning framework to adaptively model the connection among user, character, and dialogue context and thus enhance the estimation of dialogue response generation probability, which is critical for calculating R-EMID. Finally, we evaluate the generalization performance of various RPMs using R-EMID, finding that user shift poses the highest risk among all shifts and reinforcement learning is the most effective approach for enhancing RPM generalization.