Daily Papers

Video segmentation models maintain object identities by carrying instance information across frames. Under prolonged occlusion, reappearance, or interactions between similar instances, however, an unreliable update can overwrite a valid history and cause persistent identity drift. We introduce POSReasoner, a trainable, plug-and-play framework that explicitly decides when an observation should change an object's state. Each persistent state records identity, confidence, and absence history. A sparse state-observation graph supports Propose-Verify reasoning: provisional associations are revisited using object history, predicted presence, and competition among identities. The verified decisions determine whether to retain, update, reactivate, or suppress each state, while a learned gate controls the evidence written back to memory. Only verified transitions update the persistent state used in subsequent frames. POSReasoner uses standard video annotations and keeps the base model frozen, enabling integration with diverse VOS and VIS architectures. Experiments across long-term VOS and VIS benchmarks show consistent improvements over strong baselines, with the largest gains under occlusion and object reappearance.

This study aims to improve the accuracy of weather predictions by discovering spatial correlations between Earth observations and atmospheric states. Existing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems predict future atmospheric states at fixed locations, which are called NWP grid points, by analyzing previous atmospheric states and newly acquired Earth observations. However, the shifting locations of observations and the surrounding meteorological context induce complex, dynamic spatial correlations that are difficult for traditional NWP systems to capture, since they rely on strict statistical and physical formulations. To handle complicated spatial correlations, which change dynamically, we employ a spatiotemporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) with structure learning. However, structure learning has an inherent limitation that this can cause structural information loss and over-smoothing problem by generating excessive edges. To solve this problem, we regulate edge sampling by adaptively determining node degrees and considering the spatial distances between NWP grid points and observations. We validated the effectiveness of the proposed method (CloudNine-v2) using real-world atmospheric state and observation data from East Asia, achieving up to 15\% reductions in RMSE over existing STGNN models. Even in areas with high atmospheric variability, CloudNine-v2 consistently outperformed baselines with and without structure learning.

This paper investigates the impact of observations on atmospheric state estimation in weather forecasting systems using graph neural networks (GNNs) and explainability methods. We integrate observation and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) points into a meteorological graph, extracting k-hop subgraphs centered on NWP points. Self-supervised GNNs are employed to estimate the atmospheric state by aggregating data within these k-hop radii. The study applies gradient-based explainability methods to quantify the significance of different observations in the estimation process. Evaluated with data from 11 satellite and land-based observations, the results highlight the effectiveness of visualizing the importance of observation types, enhancing the understanding and optimization of observational data in weather forecasting.

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) and knowledge graphs (KGs) has achieved remarkable success in various natural language processing tasks. However, existing methodologies that integrate LLMs and KGs often navigate the task-solving process solely based on the LLM's analysis of the question, overlooking the rich cognitive potential inherent in the vast knowledge encapsulated in KGs. To address this, we introduce Observation-Driven Agent (ODA), a novel AI agent framework tailored for tasks involving KGs. ODA incorporates KG reasoning abilities via global observation that enhances reasoning capabilities through a cyclical paradigm of observation, action, and reflection. Confronting the exponential explosion of knowledge during observation, we innovatively design a recursive observation mechanism. Subsequently, we integrate the observed knowledge into the action and reflection modules. Through extensive experiments, ODA demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on several datasets, notably achieving accuracy improvements of 12.87% and 8.9%.

The impact of meteorological observations on weather forecasting varies with sensor type, location, time, and other environmental factors. Thus, quantitative analysis of observation impacts is crucial for effective and efficient development of weather forecasting systems. However, the existing impact analysis methods are difficult to be widely applied due to their high dependencies on specific forecasting systems. Also, they cannot provide observation impacts at multiple spatio-temporal scales, only global impacts of observation types. To address these issues, we present a novel system called ``CloudNine,'' which allows analysis of individual observations' impacts on specific predictions based on explainable graph neural networks (XGNNs). Combining an XGNN-based atmospheric state estimation model with a numerical weather prediction model, we provide a web application to search for observations in the 3D space of the Earth system and to visualize the impact of individual observations on predictions in specific spatial regions and time periods.

Imitation learning suffers from causal confusion. This phenomenon occurs when learned policies attend to features that do not causally influence the expert actions but are instead spuriously correlated. Causally confused agents produce low open-loop supervised loss but poor closed-loop performance upon deployment. We consider the problem of masking observed confounders in a disentangled representation of the observation space. Our novel masking algorithm leverages the usual ability to intervene in the initial system state, avoiding any requirement involving expert querying, expert reward functions, or causal graph specification. Under certain assumptions, we theoretically prove that this algorithm is conservative in the sense that it does not incorrectly mask observations that causally influence the expert; furthermore, intervening on the initial state serves to strictly reduce excess conservatism. The masking algorithm is applied to behavior cloning for two illustrative control systems: CartPole and Reacher.

Embodied agents in household environments must plan under partial observation: they need to remember objects, track state changes, and recover when actions fail. Existing benchmarks only partially test this ability. Egocentric video datasets capture realistic human activities but remain passive, while interactive simulators support execution but rely on synthetic scenes and hand-crafted dynamics, introducing a sim-to-real gap and often assuming fully observable state. We introduce Ego2World, an executable benchmark that turns egocentric cooking videos into executable symbolic worlds governed by graph-transition rules. Built on HD-EPIC, Ego2World derives reusable transition rules from video annotations and executes them in a hidden symbolic world graph. During evaluation, the simulator maintains the hidden world graph, while the agent plans over its own partial belief graph using only local observations and execution feedback. This separation forces agents to update memory and replan without observing the true world state. Experiments show that action-overlap scores overestimate physical-state success, and that persistent belief memory improves task completion while reducing repeated visual exploration -- suggesting that belief maintenance should be a first-class target of embodied-agent evaluation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve superior performance through training-time scaling, and test-time scaling further enhances their capabilities by conducting effective reasoning during inference. However, as the scale of reasoning increases, existing test-time scaling methods suffer from accumulated historical information, which not only wastes computational resources but also interferes with effective reasoning. To address this issue, we observe that complex reasoning progress is often achieved by solving a sequence of independent subquestions, each being self-contained and verifiable. These subquestions are essentially atomic questions, relying primarily on their current state rather than accumulated history, similar to the memoryless transitions in a Markov process. Based on this observation, we propose Atom of Thoughts (AoT), where each state transition in the reasoning process consists of decomposing the current question into a dependency-based directed acyclic graph and contracting its subquestions, forming a new atomic question state. This iterative decomposition-contraction process continues until reaching directly solvable atomic questions, naturally realizing Markov transitions between question states. Furthermore, these atomic questions can be seamlessly integrated into existing test-time scaling methods, enabling AoT to serve as a plug-in enhancement for improving reasoning capabilities. Experiments across six benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of AoT both as a standalone framework and a plug-in enhancement. Notably, on HotpotQA, when applied to gpt-4o-mini, AoT achieves an 80.6% F1 score, surpassing o3-mini by 3.4% and DeepSeek-R1 by 10.6%. The code will be available at https://github.com/qixucen/atom.

Recent approaches have successfully focused on the segmentation of static reconstructions, thereby equipping downstream applications with semantic 3D understanding. However, the world in which we live is dynamic, characterized by numerous interactions between the environment and humans or robotic agents. Static semantic maps are unable to capture this information, and the naive solution of rescanning the environment after every change is both costly and ineffective in tracking e.g. objects being stored away in drawers. With Lost & Found we present an approach that addresses this limitation. Based solely on egocentric recordings with corresponding hand position and camera pose estimates, we are able to track the 6DoF poses of the moving object within the detected interaction interval. These changes are applied online to a transformable scene graph that captures object-level relations. Compared to state-of-the-art object pose trackers, our approach is more reliable in handling the challenging egocentric viewpoint and the lack of depth information. It outperforms the second-best approach by 34% and 56% for translational and orientational error, respectively, and produces visibly smoother 6DoF object trajectories. In addition, we illustrate how the acquired interaction information in the dynamic scene graph can be employed in the context of robotic applications that would otherwise be unfeasible: We show how our method allows to command a mobile manipulator through teach & repeat, and how information about prior interaction allows a mobile manipulator to retrieve an object hidden in a drawer. Code, videos and corresponding data are accessible at https://behretj.github.io/LostAndFound.

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

We introduce GraphDOP, a new data-driven, end-to-end forecast system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that is trained and initialised exclusively from Earth System observations, with no physics-based (re)analysis inputs or feedbacks. GraphDOP learns the correlations between observed quantities - such as brightness temperatures from polar orbiters and geostationary satellites - and geophysical quantities of interest (that are measured by conventional observations), to form a coherent latent representation of Earth System state dynamics and physical processes, and is capable of producing skilful predictions of relevant weather parameters up to five days into the future.

Group-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) has significantly enhanced Large Language Models (LLMs) in agentic scenarios. To achieve finer-grained policy updates, recent agentic RL frameworks have shifted from trajectory-level to step-level training. However, long-horizon agentic RL suffers from severe reward sparsity and delay, as feedback is often deferred for dozens of interaction steps. While existing step-level frameworks refine training granularity, their credit assignment remains coarse-grained and still treats agent exploration as isolated, linear trajectories. This oversimplified perspective ignores the inherent graph structure of state transitions, leading to high-variance state-value estimation and myopic, localized credit assignment. To overcome these critical bottlenecks, we propose Group-Graph Policy Optimization (G2PO), a novel group-based RL algorithm tailored for multi-turn agentic tasks. G2PO explicitly transforms linear interaction trajectories into a global state-transition graph. By aggregating identical observations across different trajectories, we introduce group-aggregation state-value estimation that reduces sampling variance and trajectory-dependent bias. Furthermore, we redefine agent actions as transitions between state nodes and propose an edge-centric advantage estimation strategy. By globally standardizing Temporal Difference (TD) errors across the entire graph, G2PO explicitly identifies and prioritizes critical transitions that drive absolute task progress. Extensive experiments on representative long-horizon benchmarks-WebShop, ALFWorld, and AppWorld-demonstrate that G2PO substantially outperforms state-of-the-art prompt-based and RL baselines, achieving remarkable success rate improvements of up to 22.2% over GRPO.

Knowledge graph engineering often distributes accepted state, observations, constraints, processes, and hypothetical scenarios across artifacts whose combined execution contract remains external. We present PULSE, an Object-Process-Methodology-inspired language that localizes four operational roles and their write effects in one typed runtime. Here, modes denote operational roles rather than modal or deontic logic. The implemented contract fixes evidence non-overwrite, branch isolation, grounded multi-subject timers, guarded state change, and declaration-ranked event ordering over time and space; an external runner still decides whether evidence becomes an authoritative move. GeoSPARQL, SOSA, and SHACL remain generated views. A core calculus gives an effect-confinement lemma and six safety properties. Lean 4 checks kernel analogues for positions, evidence, clocks, monitors, atomicity, and branch source retention; 88 tests, 3,534 bounded checks, and 32 Lean/Python runtime-kernel cases bound the implementation claim to the checked cases. First-author implementations of a standards composition and a separate Sismic statechart reproduce the tested cold-chain trace. Across 37,440 generated temporal traces, PULSE matches a separate workflow and distinguishes ten single-field mutants. On the complete NOAA IBTrACS since1980 subset it agrees with GEOS and an event sweep on 1,476,290 transition-zone pairs, including 4,800 sampled and 12,831 duration-qualified events. Project-specific GeoSPARQL probes measure interface coverage. Overall, the results support contract localization, safety arguments, and trace parity for the tested fragment; language superiority and usability remain outside the evaluation.

Embodied AI agents that search for objects in large environments such as households often need to make efficient decisions by predicting object locations based on partial information. We pose this as a new type of link prediction problem: link prediction on partially observable dynamic graphs. Our graph is a representation of a scene in which rooms and objects are nodes, and their relationships are encoded in the edges; only parts of the changing graph are known to the agent at each timestep. This partial observability poses a challenge to existing link prediction approaches, which we address. We propose a novel state representation -- Scene Graph Memory (SGM) -- with captures the agent's accumulated set of observations, as well as a neural net architecture called a Node Edge Predictor (NEP) that extracts information from the SGM to search efficiently. We evaluate our method in the Dynamic House Simulator, a new benchmark that creates diverse dynamic graphs following the semantic patterns typically seen at homes, and show that NEP can be trained to predict the locations of objects in a variety of environments with diverse object movement dynamics, outperforming baselines both in terms of new scene adaptability and overall accuracy. The codebase and more can be found at https://www.scenegraphmemory.com.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) and their integration into autonomous agent systems has created unprecedented opportunities for document analysis, decision support, and knowledge retrieval. However, the complexity of developing, evaluating, and iterating on LLM-based agent workflows presents significant barriers to researchers, particularly those without extensive software engineering expertise. We present FROAV (Framework for RAG Observation and Agent Verification), an open-source research platform that democratizes LLM agent research by providing a plug-and-play architecture combining visual workflow orchestration, a comprehensive evaluation framework, and extensible Python integration. FROAV implements a multi-stage Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipeline coupled with a rigorous "LLM-as-a-Judge" evaluation system, all accessible through intuitive graphical interfaces. Our framework integrates n8n for no-code workflow design, PostgreSQL for granular data management, FastAPI for flexible backend logic, and Streamlit for human-in-the-loop interaction. Through this integrated ecosystem, researchers can rapidly prototype RAG strategies, conduct prompt engineering experiments, validate agent performance against human judgments, and collect structured feedback-all without writing infrastructure code. We demonstrate the framework's utility through its application to financial document analysis, while emphasizing its material-agnostic architecture that adapts to any domain requiring semantic analysis. FROAV represents a significant step toward making LLM agent research accessible to a broader scientific community, enabling researchers to focus on hypothesis testing and algorithmic innovation rather than system integration challenges.

Federated multimodal graph foundation models (GFMs) aim to adapt pretrained multimodal models to decentralized graph data, where each client owns a private multimodal graph and cannot share raw information. These models typically combine a multimodal Encoder that extracts semantic evidence from heterogeneous modalities and a graph neural network (GNN) that performs relational reasoning over graph structures. However, existing federated GFM adaptation methods mainly update graph-side modules while keeping the multimodal Encoder frozen, limiting adaptation to how information is propagated while fixing what information is extracted. Through empirical studies, we reveal that Encoder and GNN adaptations are not independent: Encoder adaptation is affected by graph relations, while cross-client module swapping reveals substantial pairing sensitivity between separately parameterized Encoder and GNN updates. Motivated by this observation, we propose FedCORE, a federated adaptation framework that represents Encoder and GNN updates through a shared low-dimensional latent state. FedCORE jointly optimizes this core from multimodal and structural signals and performs federated evolution directly in the shared state space, preserving compatibility between perception and reasoning adaptations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FedCORE reduces the Encoder--GNN pairing gap from 30.6 to 5.9, corresponding to an 80.7% reduction over independent joint adaptation.

MOLOT (Malicious Operational Logic Observation Transformer) is a static malicious-code detection system designed for SAST setup where package metadata, maintainer history, and dynamic execution traces may be unavailable or unreliable. The system represents source code as behavior sequences derived from static call graphs, includes an explanation stage that ranks suspicious behavior activities and maps them back to source-code locations. The approach is evaluated on Python and JavaScript packages from PyPI and npm, compared with opensource detection tools, and validated under product constraints including runtime, memory use, and false-positive rates observed in a real moderation workflow. We also release Open Malicious-Code Bench, a public benchmark for reproducible evaluation of malicious-package detection methods. The results show that static behavior-sequence modeling can provide accurate, explainable, and deployable malicious-code detection for modern DevSecOps workflows.

Tactile feedback is critical for understanding the dynamics of both rigid and deformable objects in many manipulation tasks, such as non-prehensile manipulation and dense packing. We introduce an approach that combines visual and tactile sensing for robotic manipulation by learning a neural, tactile-informed dynamics model. Our proposed framework, RoboPack, employs a recurrent graph neural network to estimate object states, including particles and object-level latent physics information, from historical visuo-tactile observations and to perform future state predictions. Our tactile-informed dynamics model, learned from real-world data, can solve downstream robotics tasks with model-predictive control. We demonstrate our approach on a real robot equipped with a compliant Soft-Bubble tactile sensor on non-prehensile manipulation and dense packing tasks, where the robot must infer the physics properties of objects from direct and indirect interactions. Trained on only an average of 30 minutes of real-world interaction data per task, our model can perform online adaptation and make touch-informed predictions. Through extensive evaluations in both long-horizon dynamics prediction and real-world manipulation, our method demonstrates superior effectiveness compared to previous learning-based and physics-based simulation systems.

State estimation is highly critical for accurately observing the dynamic behavior of the power grids and minimizing risks from cyber threats. However, existing state estimation methods encounter challenges in accurately capturing power system dynamics, primarily because of limitations in encoding the grid topology and sparse measurements. This paper proposes a physics-informed graphical learning state estimation method to address these limitations by leveraging both domain physical knowledge and a graph neural network (GNN). We employ a GNN architecture that can handle the graph-structured data of power systems more effectively than traditional data-driven methods. The physics-based knowledge is constructed from the branch current formulation, making the approach adaptable to both transmission and distribution systems. The validation results of three IEEE test systems show that the proposed method can achieve lower mean square error more than 20% than the conventional methods.

World models infer latent states of an environment to capture its underlying dynamics and predict future evolution. Many real-world environments, however, are inherently relational and observed as evolving graphs, where entities, relations, and their properties change over time. Prior graph-related world models use graph structures to organize internal states or support task-specific reasoning, rather than treating an evolving graph itself as the modeled world. We instead study graph world modeling (GWM), where graph evolution itself constitutes the world dynamics. We formulate graph world modeling over observed graph evolution, latent graph states, and heterogeneous graph-transition predictions. Based on this formulation, we construct GWM-Zero, a benchmark covering node-, edge-, and graph-level transitions over eight temporal graph datasets. We propose WorldGraph, which combines a state-aware graph transformer for multi-granularity structural and transition-conditioned evolution modeling with transition-aware GRPO using dynamic grouping and structure-aware verifiable rewards. Extensive experiments on GWM-Zero show that WorldGraph consistently outperforms representative graph representation, temporal graph learning, graph pretraining, and graph world-model baselines across all three transition granularities.

Real-world objects frequently undergo state transformations. From an apple being cut into pieces to a butterfly emerging from its cocoon, tracking through these changes is important for understanding real-world objects and dynamics. However, existing methods often lose track of the target object after transformation, due to significant changes in object appearance. To address this limitation, we introduce the task of Track Any State: tracking objects through transformations while detecting and describing state changes, accompanied by a new benchmark dataset, VOST-TAS. To tackle this problem, we present TubeletGraph, a zero-shot system that recovers missing objects after transformation and maps out how object states are evolving over time. TubeletGraph first identifies potentially overlooked tracks, and determines whether they should be integrated based on semantic and proximity priors. Then, it reasons about the added tracks and generates a state graph describing each observed transformation. TubeletGraph achieves state-of-the-art tracking performance under transformations, while demonstrating deeper understanding of object transformations and promising capabilities in temporal grounding and semantic reasoning for complex object transformations. Code, additional results, and the benchmark dataset are available at https://tubelet-graph.github.io.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Logical reasoning encompasses deduction, induction, and abduction. However, while Large Language Models (LLMs) have effectively mastered the former two, abductive reasoning remains significantly underexplored. Existing frameworks, predominantly designed for static deductive tasks, fail to generalize to abductive reasoning due to unstructured state representation and lack of explicit state control. Consequently, they are inevitably prone to Evidence Fabrication, Context Drift, Failed Backtracking, and Early Stopping. To bridge this gap, we introduce Graph of States (GoS), a general-purpose neuro-symbolic framework tailored for abductive tasks. GoS grounds multi-agent collaboration in a structured belief states, utilizing a causal graph to explicitly encode logical dependencies and a state machine to govern the valid transitions of the reasoning process. By dynamically aligning the reasoning focus with these symbolic constraints, our approach transforms aimless, unconstrained exploration into a convergent, directed search. Extensive evaluations on two real-world datasets demonstrate that GoS significantly outperforms all baselines, providing a robust solution for complex abductive tasks. Code repo and all prompts: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Graph-of-States-5B4E.

Attention mechanisms have been widely used to capture long-range dependencies among nodes in Graph Transformers. Bottlenecked by the quadratic computational cost, attention mechanisms fail to scale in large graphs. Recent improvements in computational efficiency are mainly achieved by attention sparsification with random or heuristic-based graph subsampling, which falls short in data-dependent context reasoning. State space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness and efficiency in modeling long-range dependencies in sequential data. However, adapting SSMs to non-sequential graph data presents a notable challenge. In this work, we introduce Graph-Mamba, the first attempt to enhance long-range context modeling in graph networks by integrating a Mamba block with the input-dependent node selection mechanism. Specifically, we formulate graph-centric node prioritization and permutation strategies to enhance context-aware reasoning, leading to a substantial improvement in predictive performance. Extensive experiments on ten benchmark datasets demonstrate that Graph-Mamba outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long-range graph prediction tasks, with a fraction of the computational cost in both FLOPs and GPU memory consumption. The code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bowang-lab/Graph-Mamba.

Graphs can be used to represent and reason about systems and a variety of metrics have been devised to quantify their global characteristics. However, little is currently known about how to construct a graph or improve an existing one given a target objective. In this work, we formulate the construction of a graph as a decision-making process in which a central agent creates topologies by trial and error and receives rewards proportional to the value of the target objective. By means of this conceptual framework, we propose an algorithm based on reinforcement learning and graph neural networks to learn graph construction and improvement strategies. Our core case study focuses on robustness to failures and attacks, a property relevant for the infrastructure and communication networks that power modern society. Experiments on synthetic and real-world graphs show that this approach can outperform existing methods while being cheaper to evaluate. It also allows generalization to out-of-sample graphs, as well as to larger out-of-distribution graphs in some cases. The approach is applicable to the optimization of other global structural properties of graphs.

Despite impressive advances in agent systems, multi-turn tool-use scenarios remain challenging. It is mainly because intent is clarified progressively and the environment evolves with each tool call. While reusing past experience is natural, current LLM agents either treat entire trajectories or pre-defined subtasks as indivisible units, or solely exploit tool-to-tool dependencies, hindering adaptation as states and information evolve across turns. In this paper, we propose a State Integrated Tool Graph (SIT-Graph), which enhances multi-turn tool use by exploiting partially overlapping experience. Inspired by human decision-making that integrates episodic and procedural memory, SIT-Graph captures both compact state representations (episodic-like fragments) and tool-to-tool dependencies (procedural-like routines) from historical trajectories. Specifically, we first build a tool graph from accumulated tool-use sequences, and then augment each edge with a compact state summary of the dialog and tool history that may shape the next action. At inference time, SIT-Graph enables a human-like balance between episodic recall and procedural execution: when the next decision requires recalling prior context, the agent retrieves the state summaries stored on relevant edges and uses them to guide its next action; when the step is routine, it follows high-confidence tool dependencies without explicit recall. Experiments across multiple stateful multi-turn tool-use benchmarks show that SIT-Graph consistently outperforms strong memory- and graph-based baselines, delivering more robust tool selection and more effective experience transfer.

Understanding and tracking a dynamic world are fundamental to visual intelligence. Existing video benchmarks provide limited insight into whether models can maintain a coherent understanding of evolving world state. Building such a benchmark from real-world videos is challenging because the underlying world state is partially observable, making annotations hard to obtain. To close this gap, we introduce Video-Arena, a benchmark that turns competitive games into scalable, verifiable tests of how well models understand evolving world states from videos. Specifically, inspired by how humans understand dynamic events, we evaluate spatiotemporal world state understanding and tracking through three task categories: perceiving critical events, interpreting state updates, and tracking the resulting states. Our pipeline can generate videos and aligned reference labels from game records at scale. To keep evaluation affordable and reproducible, we curate a golden set of 180 tasks across 9 games and run evaluations under two protocols: native visual understanding and tool-assisted agentic analysis. The best-performing systems achieve F1 scores of and under the two protocols, respectively. The result highlights that native models struggle to perceive events reliably, while tool-assisted systems improve event recovery but still struggle to interpret state updates and track the resulting states consistently over time. Our project page is in https://videoarena-bench.github.io

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

Flow- and diffusion-based generative models have recently emerged as flexible and highly efficient forecasting models for dynamical systems. When combined with inference-time guidance, they offer a promising route to high-dimensional non-Gaussian data assimilation (DA), the problem of combining forecasts with observations to estimate latent system states. Existing filters, however, condition on a fixed history and assimilate only the most recent observation, leaving them unable to revise past states when new observations arrive. Estimates then stay tethered to a history that later observations may contradict, and errors accumulate over the assimilation run. To this end, we introduce **DAWIS**, a unified DA method covering filtering, fixed-lag smoothing, and block smoothing within a single framework. DAWIS replaces the single flow time of a state-level prior with a multitask stochastic interpolant over a window of consecutive states, assigning a separate flow time to each. An assimilation cycle inverts the window to a vector of per-state turning points and regenerates it under observation guidance, with the turning points controlling how strongly each state is held fixed, revised, or generated from scratch. The same construction can also absorb the forecast into the assimilation cycle, removing the need for a separate forecasting model. Experiments on challenging nonlinear systems show that DAWIS improves on both filtering and smoothing baselines under sparse, noisy, and nonlinear observations. The code for DAWIS is available at https://github.com/Erik-Wikingsson/DAWIS

Policy-adherent tool-calling agents in customer-service domains must maintain task states across turns while calling tools and obeying domain policies. Task states consist of relevant facts, identifiers, constraints, and conditions observed through user interaction and tool calls. In standard agents, task states are not represented separately. Observations, tool returns, and policy instructions are placed in the prompt, leaving agents to reconstruct the relevant states from the prompt each time they decide what to do next. This design makes state management implicit, creating two common failure modes. An agent may retrieve the right facts but later ground its decision in stale, missing, or incorrect information; and a syntactically valid tool call may still violate a domain policy that depends on the current task state. We introduce LedgerAgent, an inference-time method for tool-calling agents that maintains observed task states in a separate ledger and renders the states into the prompt. The ledger is also used to check state-dependent policy constraints before environment-changing tool calls are executed, blocking policy violations. Across four customer-service domains and a mixed panel of open- and closed-weight models, LedgerAgent improves average passk over a standard prompt-based tool-calling approach, with the largest gains under stricter multi-trial consistency metrics.

Autonomous systems often operate in environments where the behavior of multiple agents is coordinated by a shared global state. Reliable estimation of the global state is thus critical for successfully operating in a multi-agent setting. We introduce agent-aware state estimation -- a framework for calculating indirect estimations of state given observations of the behavior of other agents in the environment. We also introduce transition-independent agent-aware state estimation -- a tractable class of agent-aware state estimation -- and show that it allows the speed of inference to scale linearly with the number of agents in the environment. As an example, we model traffic light classification in instances of complete loss of direct observation. By taking into account observations of vehicular behavior from multiple directions of traffic, our approach exhibits accuracy higher than that of existing traffic light-only HMM methods on a real-world autonomous vehicle data set under a variety of simulated occlusion scenarios.

Recent 3D world models increasingly use features from geometry foundation models (GFMs) as predictive world states, benefiting from their rich geometric priors. However, the view dependence of these features entangles scene dynamics with camera-induced variation, making the resulting state evolution harder to predict. We propose GeoState, a view-decoupled geometry representation for predictive 3D world modeling that separates scene-state evolution from camera-dependent observation. Specifically, a scene tokenizer aggregates multi-view GFM features into a view-decoupled scene state, which a geometry decoder queries using camera rays. An autoregressive world model then predicts future scene states, while camera motion is modeled separately. The predicted states can therefore be decoded under either predicted or externally specified cameras, while retaining a single context-derived scale throughout the rollout without per-frame scale alignment. Experiments show that GeoState outperforms prior 3D world models on Waymo, supports geometrically consistent cross-view querying, and generalizes zero-shot to KITTI and nuScenes. Project page: https://hongchang-liu.github.io/GeoState-project-page/

Detecting and localizing leaks in water distribution network systems is an important topic with direct environmental, economic, and social impact. Our paper is the first to explore the use of factor graph optimization techniques for leak localization in water distribution networks, enabling us to perform sensor fusion between pressure and demand sensor readings and to estimate the network's temporal and structural state evolution across all network nodes. The methodology introduces specific water network factors and proposes a new architecture composed of two factor graphs: a leak-free state estimation factor graph and a leak localization factor graph. When a new sensor reading is obtained, unlike Kalman and other interpolation-based methods, which estimate only the current network state, factor graphs update both current and past states. Results on Modena, L-TOWN and synthetic networks show that factor graphs are much faster than nonlinear Kalman-based alternatives such as the UKF, while also providing improvements in localization compared to state-of-the-art estimation-localization approaches. Implementation and benchmarks are available at https://github.com/pirofti/FGLL.

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

We verify that persistent observers in causally invariant hypergraph substrates satisfy the conditions of the Conant-Ashby Good Regulator Theorem. Building on Wolfram's hypergraph physics and Vanchurin's neural network cosmology, we formalize persistent observers as entities that minimize prediction error at their boundary with the environment. Applying a modern reformulation of the Conant-Ashby theorem, we demonstrate that hypergraph observers satisfy Good Regulator conditions, requiring them to maintain internal models. Once an internal model with loss function exists, the emergence of a Fisher information metric follows from standard information geometry. Invoking Amari's uniqueness theorem for reparameterization-invariant gradients, we show that natural gradient descent is the unique admissible learning rule. Under the ansatz M=F^2 for exponential family observers and one specific convergence time functional, we derive a closed-form formula for the regime parameter alpha in Vanchurin's Type II framework, with a quantum-classical threshold at kappa(F)=2. However, three alternative convergence models do not reproduce this result, so this prediction is strongly model-dependent. We further introduce the directional regime parameter alpha_{v_k} and the trace-free deviation tensor, showing that a single observer can simultaneously occupy different Vanchurin regimes along different eigendirections of the Fisher metric. This connects Wolfram and Vanchurin frameworks through established theorems, providing approximately 25-30% novel contribution.

The precise knowledge regarding the state of the power grid is important in order to ensure optimal and reliable grid operation. Specifically, knowing the state of the distribution grid becomes increasingly important as more renewable energy sources are connected directly into the distribution network, increasing the fluctuations of the injected power. In this paper, we consider the case when the distribution grid becomes partially observable, and the state estimation problem is under-determined. We present a new methodology that leverages a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate the grid state. The standard DNN training method is modified to explicitly incorporate the physical information of the grid topology and line/shunt admittance. We show that our method leads to a superior accuracy of the estimation when compared to the case when no physical information is provided. Finally, we compare the performance of our method to the standard state estimation approach, which is based on the weighted least squares with pseudo-measurements, and show that our method performs significantly better with respect to the estimation accuracy.

Reasoning system dynamics is one of the most important analytical approaches for many scientific studies. With the initial state of a system as input, the recent graph neural networks (GNNs)-based methods are capable of predicting the future state distant in time with high accuracy. Although these methods have diverse designs in modeling the coordinates and interacting forces of the system, we show that they actually share a common paradigm that learns the integration of the velocity over the interval between the initial and terminal coordinates. However, their integrand is constant w.r.t. time. Inspired by this observation, we propose a new approach to predict the integration based on several velocity estimations with Newton-Cotes formulas and prove its effectiveness theoretically. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks empirically demonstrate consistent and significant improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.

Much has been said about observability in system theory and control; however, it has been recently that observability in complex networks has seriously attracted the attention of researchers. This paper examines the state-of-the-art and discusses some issues raised due to "complexity" and "stochasticity". These unresolved issues call for a new practical methodology. For stochastic systems, a degree of observability may be defined and the observability problem is not a binary (i.e., yes-no) question anymore. Here, we propose to employ a goal-seeking system to play a supervisory role in the network. Hence, improving the degree of observability would be a valid objective for the supervisory system. Towards this goal, the supervisor dynamically optimizes the observation process by reconfiguring the sensory parts in the network. A cognitive dynamic system is suggested as a proper choice for the supervisory system. In this framework, the network itself is viewed as the environment with which the cognitive dynamic system interacts. Computer experiments confirm the potential of the proposed approach for addressing some of the issues raised in networks due to complexity and stochasticity.

We present a unified representation for actionable spatial perception: 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs. Scene graphs are directed graphs where nodes represent entities in the scene (e.g. objects, walls, rooms), and edges represent relations (e.g. inclusion, adjacency) among nodes. Dynamic scene graphs (DSGs) extend this notion to represent dynamic scenes with moving agents (e.g. humans, robots), and to include actionable information that supports planning and decision-making (e.g. spatio-temporal relations, topology at different levels of abstraction). Our second contribution is to provide the first fully automatic Spatial PerceptIon eNgine(SPIN) to build a DSG from visual-inertial data. We integrate state-of-the-art techniques for object and human detection and pose estimation, and we describe how to robustly infer object, robot, and human nodes in crowded scenes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that reconciles visual-inertial SLAM and dense human mesh tracking. Moreover, we provide algorithms to obtain hierarchical representations of indoor environments (e.g. places, structures, rooms) and their relations. Our third contribution is to demonstrate the proposed spatial perception engine in a photo-realistic Unity-based simulator, where we assess its robustness and expressiveness. Finally, we discuss the implications of our proposal on modern robotics applications. 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs can have a profound impact on planning and decision-making, human-robot interaction, long-term autonomy, and scene prediction. A video abstract is available at https://youtu.be/SWbofjhyPzI

We propose a new partial-observability model for online learning problems where the learner, besides its own loss, also observes some noisy feedback about the other actions, depending on the underlying structure of the problem. We represent this structure by a weighted directed graph, where the edge weights are related to the quality of the feedback shared by the connected nodes. Our main contribution is an efficient algorithm that guarantees a regret of O(α^* T) after T rounds, where α^* is a novel graph property that we call the effective independence number. Our algorithm is completely parameter-free and does not require knowledge (or even estimation) of α^*. For the special case of binary edge weights, our setting reduces to the partial-observability models of Mannor and Shamir (2011) and Alon et al. (2013) and our algorithm recovers the near-optimal regret bounds.

Agent-native social platforms such as Moltbook are rapidly emerging, yet they inherit and amplify classical influence and abuse attacks, where coordinated agents strategically comment and upvote to manipulate visibility and propagate narratives across communities. However, rigorous measurement and learning-based monitoring remain constrained by the absence of longitudinal, graph-native datasets for agentic social networks that jointly capture heterogeneous interactions, temporal drift, and visibility signals needed to connect coordination behavior to downstream exposure. We introduce MoltGraph as a realistic longitudinal agentic social-network graph dataset for studying how agents behave, coordinate, and evolve in the wild, enabling reproducible measurement on emerging multi-agent social ecosystems. Using MoltGraph, we provide the first graph-centric characterization of Moltbook as a dynamic network: (i) heavy-tailed connectivity with power-law exponents in the range alpha in [1.86, 2.72], (ii) accelerating hub formation and attention centralization where the top 1% agents account for 29.00% of engagements, (iii) bursty, short-lived coordination episodes, 98.33% last under 24 hours, and (iv) measurable exposure effects across submolts. In matched analyses, posts receiving coordinated engagement exhibit 506.35% higher early interaction rates (within H=5 days) and 242.63% higher downstream exposure in feeds than non-coordinated controls.

We propose an algorithm for change point monitoring in linear causal models that accounts for interventions. Through a special centralization technique, we can concentrate the changes arising from causal propagation across nodes into a single dimension. Additionally, by selecting appropriate intervention nodes based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, we can amplify the change magnitude. We also present an algorithm for selecting the intervention values, which aids in the identification of the most effective intervention nodes. Two monitoring methods are proposed, each with an adaptive intervention policy to make a balance between exploration and exploitation. We theoretically demonstrate the first-order optimality of the proposed methods and validate their properties using simulation datasets and two real-world case studies.

We present a unified framework capable of solving a broad range of 3D tasks. Our approach features a stateful recurrent model that continuously updates its state representation with each new observation. Given a stream of images, this evolving state can be used to generate metric-scale pointmaps (per-pixel 3D points) for each new input in an online fashion. These pointmaps reside within a common coordinate system, and can be accumulated into a coherent, dense scene reconstruction that updates as new images arrive. Our model, called CUT3R (Continuous Updating Transformer for 3D Reconstruction), captures rich priors of real-world scenes: not only can it predict accurate pointmaps from image observations, but it can also infer unseen regions of the scene by probing at virtual, unobserved views. Our method is simple yet highly flexible, naturally accepting varying lengths of images that may be either video streams or unordered photo collections, containing both static and dynamic content. We evaluate our method on various 3D/4D tasks and demonstrate competitive or state-of-the-art performance in each. Project Page: https://cut3r.github.io/

Previsualization is an intermediate layer between ideas and production in film, games, architecture, and urban design. It lets creators iteratively refine scenes, actions, cameras, and spatial-temporal dynamics. Yet existing generative methods rely on simple prompts to jointly control all of these factors through one-shot image or video synthesis, offering weak controllability and limited support for iterative editing. Fundamentally, a world comprises multiple elements with geometry, appearance, and other attributes, together with cameras. Different frames are produced through local modifications or recombinations of this shared state, which is otherwise largely reused. Therefore, we argue that the missing component is an explicit and persistent working state. To address this, we present StateFlow, a state-centric framework for generative previsualization. Rather than generating videos in one shot, StateFlow uses an editable 3D world to organize scene structure, evolution, and cameras, while off-the-shelf video models enhance visual quality when higher fidelity is desired. This world is maintained as a persistent structured 3D state of scene elements and camera configurations, serving as the core working representation for previsualization. Built on this insight, StateFlow has three stages to construct, evolve, and access the world state. State construction lifts generated 2D content into a coherent 3D world through prior-guided, conflict-aware dual-view initialization, while State evolution translates user intent into structured state transitions while preserving world memory, avoiding full-scene regeneration for each edit. State access uses render-feedback reflection to refine camera plans into visually feasible trajectories, avoiding reliance on VLM semantics alone. Experiments show that StateFlow produces high-quality 3D worlds for video creation and game-like prototyping.

Evolutions in the world, such as water pouring or ice melting, happen regardless of being observed. Video world models generate "worlds" via 2D frame observations. Can these generated "worlds" evolve regardless of observation? To probe this question, we design a benchmark to evaluate whether video world models can decouple state evolution from observation. Our benchmark, STEVO-Bench, applies observation control to evolving processes via instructions of occluder insertion, turning off the light, or specifying camera "lookaway" trajectories. By evaluating video models with and without camera control for a diverse set of naturally-occurring evolutions, we expose their limitations in decoupling state evolution from observation. STEVO-Bench proposes an evaluation protocol to automatically detect and disentangle failure modes of video world models across key aspects of natural state evolution. Analysis of STEVO-Bench results provide new insight into potential data and architecture bias of present-day video world models. Project website: https://glab-caltech.github.io/STEVOBench/. Blog: https://ziqi-ma.github.io/blog/2026/outofsight/

The "thinking-with-images" paradigm equips multimodal LLMs with active visual operations such as crop-and-zoom. However, models using these operations often achieve only marginal or negative gains over direct inference at substantially higher token cost. They may also repeatedly crop irrelevant regions and fail on questions that direct inference answers correctly. We ask whether the returned visual evidence causally affects the answer. To answer this question, we formulate visual tool-use as a causal graph that separates observation-mediated paths from action-induced shortcuts. We then audit it through interventions at the three levels: policy (comparing tool-use with direct inference), trajectory (corrupting all observations during rollout), and step (counterfactually replacing one individual observation under a fixed prefix). Our step-level estimand, Visual Evidence Gain, isolates the contribution of each returned observation. Across six representative models and five fine-grained perception benchmarks, we uncover policy miscalibration with two failure modes. In Calling Without Looking, returned observations have no causal effect on the answer. In Looking Without Planning, observations are informative but the call schedule is incoherent. A trajectory-level diagnostic decomposes the policy-level accuracy gain and shows that the gain is concentrated in a Calibrated minority. We term this discrepancy the illusion of visual tool-use: despite aggregate accuracy gains, visual tool-use is not causally effective across a broad range of rollouts. The code is available at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauAudit.

This is an extended version of our publication Learning state machines from data streams: A generic strategy and an improved heuristic, International Conference on Grammatical Inference (ICGI) 2023, Rabat, Morocco. It has been extended with a formal proof on PAC-bounds, and the discussion and analysis of a similar approach has been moved from the appendix and now has a full dedicated section. State machine models are models that simulate the behavior of discrete event systems, capable of representing systems such as software systems, network interactions, and control systems, and have been researched extensively. The nature of most learning algorithms however is the assumption that all data be available at the beginning of the algorithm, and little research has been done in learning state machines from streaming data. In this paper, we want to close this gap further by presenting a generic method for learning state machines from data streams, as well as a merge heuristic that uses sketches to account for incomplete prefix trees. We implement our approach in an open-source state merging library and compare it with existing methods. We show the effectiveness of our approach with respect to run-time, memory consumption, and quality of results on a well known open dataset. Additionally, we provide a formal analysis of our algorithm, showing that it is capable of learning within the PAC framework, and show a theoretical improvement to increase run-time, without sacrificing correctness of the algorithm in larger sample sizes.

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) can in principle synthesize more optimal behavior from a dataset consisting only of suboptimal trials. One way that this can happen is by "stitching" together the best parts of otherwise suboptimal trajectories that overlap on similar states, to create new behaviors where each individual state is in-distribution, but the overall returns are higher. However, in many interesting and complex applications, such as autonomous navigation and dialogue systems, the state is partially observed. Even worse, the state representation is unknown or not easy to define. In such cases, policies and value functions are often conditioned on observation histories instead of states. In these cases, it is not clear if the same kind of "stitching" is feasible at the level of observation histories, since two different trajectories would always have different histories, and thus "similar states" that might lead to effective stitching cannot be leveraged. Theoretically, we show that standard offline RL algorithms conditioned on observation histories suffer from poor sample complexity, in accordance with the above intuition. We then identify sufficient conditions under which offline RL can still be efficient -- intuitively, it needs to learn a compact representation of history comprising only features relevant for action selection. We introduce a bisimulation loss that captures the extent to which this happens, and propose that offline RL can explicitly optimize this loss to aid worst-case sample complexity. Empirically, we show that across a variety of tasks either our proposed loss improves performance, or the value of this loss is already minimized as a consequence of standard offline RL, indicating that it correlates well with good performance.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

In the past years, predictive process monitoring (PPM) techniques based on artificial neural networks have evolved as a method to monitor the future behavior of business processes. Existing approaches mostly focus on interpreting the processes as sequences, so-called traces, and feeding them to neural architectures designed to operate on sequential data such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) or transformers. In this study, we investigate an alternative way to perform PPM: by transforming each process in its directly-follows-graph (DFG) representation we are able to apply graph neural networks (GNNs) for the prediction tasks. By this, we aim to develop models that are more suitable for complex processes that are long and contain an abundance of loops. In particular, we present different ways to create DFG representations depending on the particular GNN we use. The tested GNNs range from classical node-based to novel edge-based architectures. Further, we investigate the possibility of using multi-graphs. By these steps, we aim to design graph representations that minimize the information loss when transforming traces into graphs.

Access to realistic transmission grid models is essential for power systems research, yet detailed network data in the United States remains restricted under critical-infrastructure regulations. We present a pipeline that constructs complete, OPF-solvable transmission network models entirely from publicly available data. The five-stage pipeline (1) extracts power infrastructure from OpenStreetMap via a local Overpass API instance, (2) reconstructs bus-branch topology through voltage inference, line merging, and transformer detection, (3) estimates electrical parameters using voltage-class lookup tables calibrated with U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) plant-level data, (4) allocates hourly demand from EIA-930 to individual buses using US Census population as a spatial proxy, and (5) solves both DC and AC optimal power flow using PowerModels.jl with a progressive relaxation strategy that automatically loosens constraints on imprecise models. We validate the pipeline on all 48 contiguous US states and six multi-state regions, including the full Western (5,076 buses) and Eastern (21,697 buses) Interconnections. Of the 48 single-state models, 42 (88%) converge at the strictest relaxation level for AC-OPF at peak hour and 44 (92%) off-peak. Dispatch costs (median $22/MWh) and system losses (median 1.0%) are consistent with real wholesale-market outcomes. The pipeline relies exclusively on open data sources, enabling reproducible grid analysis without proprietary data. All 54 models (48 single-state and 6 multi-state) are publicly released at https://github.com/microsoft/GridSFM.

The automated extraction of complete and precise road network graphs from remote sensing imagery remains a critical challenge in geospatial computer vision. Segmentation-based approaches, while effective in pixel-level recognition, struggle to maintain topology fidelity after vectorization postprocessing. Graph-growing methods build more topologically faithful graphs but suffer from computationally prohibitive iterative ROI cropping. Graph-generating methods first predict global static candidate road network vertices, and then infer possible edges between vertices. They achieve fast topology-aware inference, but limits the dynamic insertion of vertices. To address these challenges, we propose DeH4R, a novel hybrid model that combines graph-generating efficiency and graph-growing dynamics. This is achieved by decoupling the task into candidate vertex detection, adjacent vertex prediction, initial graph contruction, and graph expansion. This architectural innovation enables dynamic vertex (edge) insertions while retaining fast inference speed and enhancing both topology fidelity and spatial consistency. Comprehensive evaluations on CityScale and SpaceNet benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance. DeH4R outperforms the prior SOTA graph-growing method RNGDet++ by 4.62 APLS and 10.18 IoU on CityScale, while being approximately 10 times faster. The code will be made publicly available at https://github.com/7777777FAN/DeH4R.

Modern enterprises generate vast streams of time series metrics when monitoring complex systems, known as observability data. Unlike conventional time series from domains such as weather, observability data are zero-inflated, highly stochastic, and exhibit minimal temporal structure. Despite their importance, observability datasets are underrepresented in public benchmarks due to proprietary restrictions. Existing datasets are often anonymized and normalized, removing scale information and limiting their use for tasks beyond forecasting, such as anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and multi-modal reasoning. To address this gap, we introduce TelecomTS, a large-scale observability dataset derived from a 5G telecommunications network. TelecomTS features heterogeneous, de-anonymized covariates with explicit scale information and supports a suite of downstream tasks, including anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and a question-answering benchmark requiring multi-modal reasoning. Benchmarking state-of-the-art time series, language, and reasoning models reveals that existing approaches struggle with the abrupt, noisy, and high-variance dynamics of observability data. Our experiments also underscore the importance of preserving covariates' absolute scale, emphasizing the need for foundation time series models that natively leverage scale information for practical observability applications.

Interactive game world models typically autoregress visual observations directly in pixel or latent space, forcing structured properties such as pose, geometry, and occlusion to be implicitly maintained by the same generative sequence. Over long horizons, errors in these latent world properties accumulate, making consistency and controllability fragile. We explicitly model the evolving world state, delegate exact geometric computation to a fixed, zero-parameter renderer, and leave the neural model to synthesize appearance. We instantiate this idea as Marionette, a world model for interactive games with articulated characters. First, a two-stage autoregressive dynamics model predicts an explicit and interpretable 276-dimensional 3D world state comprising multi-entity articulated skeletons, metric root trajectories, and rotations. Second, a zero-parameter graphics bridge converts the predicted state into pose-control videos, computing world-space geometry and occlusion in closed form. Third, a control-conditioned video-diffusion observation model synthesizes photorealistic RGB observations from the resulting structured controls. Our experiments establish two properties of Marionette. First, the predicted world state is directly controllable. Forcing a mismatched action stream changes root-aligned joint error by 31% across 48 held-out segments. Second, long-horizon behaviour is determined in the state, and can be repaired there. Left free, the two generated characters drift to 21.2 m apart (recorded sessions stay near 5 m) and a third of frames show ground penetration. Two rules imposed on the explicit state, a terrain collider and a separation cap, cut penetration by 66% and keep the pair engaged, with no change to the observation model. Routing appearance through the predicted state costs no fidelity we can detect, at an FVD of 831 against 799 for recorded pose.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to the popular transformer-based models and have been increasingly gaining attention. Compared to transformers, SSMs excel at tasks with sequential data or longer contexts, demonstrating comparable performances with significant efficiency gains. In this survey, we provide a coherent and systematic overview for SSMs, including their theoretical motivations, mathematical formulations, comparison with existing model classes, and various applications. We divide the SSM series into three main sections, providing a detailed introduction to the original SSM, the structured SSM represented by S4, and the selective SSM typified by Mamba. We put an emphasis on technicality, and highlight the various key techniques introduced to address the effectiveness and efficiency of SSMs. We hope this manuscript serves as an introduction for researchers to explore the theoretical foundations of SSMs.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales (C=50 and C=200) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

With the rapid progress of diffusion models and large-scale video generation, generative world models are increasingly expected to replace traditional simulators, including physics engines, game engines, and reinforcement-learning environments. Yet the remaining distance from generation to simulation lacks a systematic assessment. We present a capability-based study using an external yardstick: eight capabilities of a traditional simulator, namely asset construction, physics engine, interaction, controllability, stability, state feedback, diversity, and evaluation metrics. We trace three main technical routes--latent dynamics, video generation, and joint-embedding prediction--and map exactly 200 representative works published from 2018 to June 2026 onto these capabilities. Our analysis shows that world models have achieved functional substitution in interaction and controllability for specific scenarios, but remain short of traditional simulators in formal guarantees of physical laws, structured state feedback, and reproducible long-horizon evolution. State feedback is the most neglected cross-route shortcoming: only 6 of 163 implementation papers expose a runtime interface for querying entity states or physical parameters. We identify six research directions: formalized physics, a unified action interface, first-class state feedback, long-horizon stability, downstream-utility evaluation, and cross-route hybridization. Project page: https://github.com/AtongWang/world-model-simulators

Graphs are an essential part of many machine learning problems such as analysis of parse trees, social networks, knowledge graphs, transportation systems, and molecular structures. Applying machine learning in these areas typically involves learning the graph structure and the relationship between the nodes of the graph. However, learning the graph structure is often complex, particularly when the graph is cyclic, and the transitions from one node to another are conditioned such as graphs used to represent a finite state machine. To solve this problem, we propose to extend the memory based Neural Turing Machine (NTM) with two novel additions. We allow for transitions between nodes to be influenced by information received from external environments, and we let the NTM learn the context of those transitions. We refer to this extension as the Conditional Neural Turing Machine (CNTM). We show that the CNTM can infer conditional transition graphs by empirically verifiying the model on two data sets: a large set of randomly generated graphs, and a graph modeling the information retrieval process during certain crisis situations. The results show that the CNTM is able to reproduce the paths inside the graph with accuracy ranging from 82,12% for 10 nodes graphs to 65,25% for 100 nodes graphs.

Graph mining workloads aim to extract structural properties of a graph by exploring its subgraph structures. General purpose graph mining systems provide a generic runtime to explore subgraph structures of interest with the help of user-defined functions that guide the overall exploration process. However, the state-of-the-art graph mining systems remain largely oblivious to the shape (or pattern) of the subgraphs that they mine. This causes them to: (a) explore unnecessary subgraphs; (b) perform expensive computations on the explored subgraphs; and, (c) hold intermediate partial subgraphs in memory; all of which affect their overall performance. Furthermore, their programming models are often tied to their underlying exploration strategies, which makes it difficult for domain users to express complex mining tasks. In this paper, we develop Peregrine, a pattern-aware graph mining system that directly explores the subgraphs of interest while avoiding exploration of unnecessary subgraphs, and simultaneously bypassing expensive computations throughout the mining process. We design a pattern-based programming model that treats "graph patterns" as first class constructs and enables Peregrine to extract the semantics of patterns, which it uses to guide its exploration. Our evaluation shows that Peregrine outperforms state-of-the-art distributed and single machine graph mining systems, and scales to complex mining tasks on larger graphs, while retaining simplicity and expressivity with its "pattern-first" programming approach.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Always-on agents are systems whose future behavior depends on durable state accumulated across earlier interactions. We treat them as persistent-state systems: the operative system includes retrievable memories, but also task ledgers, permissions, credentials, commitments, provenance and audit records, shared state, trigger conditions, and externally committed effects linked to those records. The survey reads the literature through six diagnostic axes for each state item, authority, scope, mutability, provenance, recoverability, and actionability, and through a lifecycle in which state is written, validated, organized, retrieved, acted upon, updated, forgotten, audited, and sometimes rolled back. Across a 435-work coded corpus, treated as a scoped map rather than an exhaustive census, the literature concentrates more heavily on accumulating and retrieving state than on governing, recovering, or relinquishing it. We therefore introduce the Always-On Evaluation Protocol (AOEP-v0), a pilot evaluation contract that makes these governance requirements concrete by scoring state mutation and recovery obligations rather than answer quality alone. The resulting agenda connects always-on agents to databases, distributed systems, formal methods, capability security, and machine unlearning.

Recent work on the sequence universality of State Space Models (SSMs) has introduced efficient, maximally expressive continuous-time approaches for time-series modelling. While these works focus on discriminative settings, we extend this perspective to generative time-series modelling by proving that maximally expressive Structured Linear Controlled Differential Equations (SLiCEs) are universal time-series generators, in the sense that they can approximate the induced path laws of continuous causal pushforwards on compact latent sets in W_infty. Building on these theoretical results, we propose Generative SLiCEs (G-SLiCEs), a maximally expressive continuous-time model for flow matching on path-space. Empirically, we show that expressivity improves performance in probabilistic forecasting and downstream tasks, while retaining the advantages of continuous-time models such as generalising to arbitrary observation grids. This is particularly beneficial for irregular grids, where fixed-grid models often struggle.

Network embedding has been intensively studied in the literature and widely used in various applications, such as link prediction and node classification. While previous work focus on the design of new algorithms or are tailored for various problem settings, the discussion of initialization strategies in the learning process is often missed. In this work, we address this important issue of initialization for network embedding that could dramatically improve the performance of the algorithms on both effectiveness and efficiency. Specifically, we first exploit the graph partition technique that divides the graph into several disjoint subsets, and then construct an abstract graph based on the partitions. We obtain the initialization of the embedding for each node in the graph by computing the network embedding on the abstract graph, which is much smaller than the input graph, and then propagating the embedding among the nodes in the input graph. With extensive experiments on various datasets, we demonstrate that our initialization technique significantly improves the performance of the state-of-the-art algorithms on the evaluations of link prediction and node classification by up to 7.76% and 8.74% respectively. Besides, we show that the technique of initialization reduces the running time of the state-of-the-arts by at least 20%.

We introduce the problem of active causal structure learning with advice. In the typical well-studied setting, the learning algorithm is given the essential graph for the observational distribution and is asked to recover the underlying causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) G^* while minimizing the number of interventions made. In our setting, we are additionally given side information about G^* as advice, e.g. a DAG G purported to be G^*. We ask whether the learning algorithm can benefit from the advice when it is close to being correct, while still having worst-case guarantees even when the advice is arbitrarily bad. Our work is in the same space as the growing body of research on algorithms with predictions. When the advice is a DAG G, we design an adaptive search algorithm to recover G^* whose intervention cost is at most O(max{1, log psi}) times the cost for verifying G^*; here, psi is a distance measure between G and G^* that is upper bounded by the number of variables n, and is exactly 0 when G=G^*. Our approximation factor matches the state-of-the-art for the advice-less setting.

Accurately predicting road networks from satellite images requires a global understanding of the network topology. We propose to capture such high-level information by introducing a graph-based framework that simulates the addition of sequences of graph edges using a reinforcement learning (RL) approach. In particular, given a partially generated graph associated with a satellite image, an RL agent nominates modifications that maximize a cumulative reward. As opposed to standard supervised techniques that tend to be more restricted to commonly used surrogate losses, these rewards can be based on various complex, potentially non-continuous, metrics of interest. This yields more power and flexibility to encode problem-dependent knowledge. Empirical results on several benchmark datasets demonstrate enhanced performance and increased high-level reasoning about the graph topology when using a tree-based search. We further highlight the superiority of our approach under substantial occlusions by introducing a new synthetic benchmark dataset for this task.

Dynamic graph embedding has emerged as an important technique for modeling complex time-evolving networks across diverse domains. While transformer-based models have shown promise in capturing long-range dependencies in temporal graph data, they face scalability challenges due to quadratic computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of dynamic graph embedding approaches using transformers and the recently proposed Mamba architecture, a state-space model with linear complexity. We introduce three novel models: TransformerG2G augment with graph convolutional networks, DG-Mamba, and GDG-Mamba with graph isomorphism network edge convolutions. Our experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that Mamba-based models achieve comparable or superior performance to transformer-based approaches in link prediction tasks while offering significant computational efficiency gains on longer sequences. Notably, DG-Mamba variants consistently outperform transformer-based models on datasets with high temporal variability, such as UCI, Bitcoin, and Reality Mining, while maintaining competitive performance on more stable graphs like SBM. We provide insights into the learned temporal dependencies through analysis of attention weights and state matrices, revealing the models' ability to capture complex temporal patterns. By effectively combining state-space models with graph neural networks, our work addresses key limitations of previous approaches and contributes to the growing body of research on efficient temporal graph representation learning. These findings offer promising directions for scaling dynamic graph embedding to larger, more complex real-world networks, potentially enabling new applications in areas such as social network analysis, financial modeling, and biological system dynamics.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

We propose a new method for count-based exploration in high-dimensional state spaces. Unlike previous work which relies on density models, we show that counts can be derived by averaging samples from the Rademacher distribution (or coin flips). This insight is used to set up a simple supervised learning objective which, when optimized, yields a state's visitation count. We show that our method is significantly more effective at deducing ground-truth visitation counts than previous work; when used as an exploration bonus for a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm, it outperforms existing approaches on most of 9 challenging exploration tasks, including the Atari game Montezuma's Revenge.

Video generators build long videos by composing shorter parts, either by generating segments one after another or by autoregressively extending chunks. Each new part usually depends on memories of historical observations, such as recent frames, selected key frames, memory banks, or cached features. These memories preserve visible evidence from the past, but current generators do not reliably turn such evidence into a world-state interface: what holds in the video world after previous actions and how it should change under the next prompt. A past frame remains valid history, but it may not describe the state needed by the next segment; some states must instead be inferred from occluded or implicit changes rather than copied from a directly observed frame. This creates a simple but overlooked question for video continuation: given a previous video, its prompt, and a new prompt, can a model generate a continuation that reflects the state determined by both the historical video and the new prompt? To answer this question, we introduce Statebench, a benchmark that targets this gap by testing continuations over three state categories: past-visible states, occluded-process states, and complex-transition states. We further propose Stateagent, which explicitly maintains an entity-state representation, updates it under the new prompt, grounds the predicted post-action state as a future end frame, and renders the next video. Experiments show that our method improves controlled video continuation by raising the all-case state score (SCS-All) from 45.2 to 69.3, and also benefits story generation at the one-minute scale. Code is avaliable at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/StateAgent.

Many graph algorithms can be viewed as sets of rules that are iteratively applied, with the number of iterations dependent on the size and complexity of the input graph. Existing machine learning architectures often struggle to represent these algorithmic decisions as discrete state transitions. Therefore, we propose a novel framework: GraphFSA (Graph Finite State Automaton). GraphFSA is designed to learn a finite state automaton that runs on each node of a given graph. We test GraphFSA on cellular automata problems, showcasing its abilities in a straightforward algorithmic setting. For a comprehensive empirical evaluation of our framework, we create a diverse range of synthetic problems. As our main application, we then focus on learning more elaborate graph algorithms. Our findings suggest that GraphFSA exhibits strong generalization and extrapolation abilities, presenting an alternative approach to represent these algorithms.

In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, in which the objective is to select an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in a causal graph. It is assumed that the graph is governed by linear structural equations; it is further assumed that both the causal topology and the distribution of interventions are unknown. By exploiting the causal relationships between the nodes whose signals contribute to the reward, interventions are optimized. First, based on the difference between the two types of graph identification errors (false positives and negatives), a causal graph learning method is proposed, which strongly reduces sample complexity relative to the prior art by learning sub-graphs. Under the assumption of Gaussian exogenous inputs and minimum-mean squared error weight estimation, a new uncertainty bound tailored to the causal bandit problem is derived. This uncertainty bound drives an upper confidence bound based intervention selection to optimize the reward. To cope with non-stationary bandits, a sub-graph change detection mechanism is proposed, with high sample efficiency. Numerical results compare the new methodology to existing schemes and show a substantial performance improvement in both stationary and non-stationary settings. Compared to existing approaches, the proposed scheme takes 67% fewer samples to learn the causal structure and achieves an average reward gain of 85%.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

The graph with complex annotations is the most potent data type, whose constantly evolving motivates further exploration of the unsupervised dynamic graph representation. One of the representative paradigms is graph contrastive learning. It constructs self-supervised signals by maximizing the mutual information between the statistic graph's augmentation views. However, the semantics and labels may change within the augmentation process, causing a significant performance drop in downstream tasks. This drawback becomes greatly magnified on dynamic graphs. To address this problem, we designed a simple yet effective framework named CLDG. Firstly, we elaborate that dynamic graphs have temporal translation invariance at different levels. Then, we proposed a sampling layer to extract the temporally-persistent signals. It will encourage the node to maintain consistent local and global representations, i.e., temporal translation invariance under the timespan views. The extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the method on seven datasets by outperforming eight unsupervised state-of-the-art baselines and showing competitiveness against four semi-supervised methods. Compared with the existing dynamic graph method, the number of model parameters and training time is reduced by an average of 2,001.86 times and 130.31 times on seven datasets, respectively.

Selective state space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, highly excel at capturing long-range dependencies in 1D sequential data, while their applications to 2D vision tasks still face challenges. Current visual SSMs often convert images into 1D sequences and employ various scanning patterns to incorporate local spatial dependencies. However, these methods are limited in effectively capturing the complex image spatial structures and the increased computational cost caused by the lengthened scanning paths. To address these limitations, we propose Spatial-Mamba, a novel approach that establishes neighborhood connectivity directly in the state space. Instead of relying solely on sequential state transitions, we introduce a structure-aware state fusion equation, which leverages dilated convolutions to capture image spatial structural dependencies, significantly enhancing the flow of visual contextual information. Spatial-Mamba proceeds in three stages: initial state computation in a unidirectional scan, spatial context acquisition through structure-aware state fusion, and final state computation using the observation equation. Our theoretical analysis shows that Spatial-Mamba unifies the original Mamba and linear attention under the same matrix multiplication framework, providing a deeper understanding of our method. Experimental results demonstrate that Spatial-Mamba, even with a single scan, attains or surpasses the state-of-the-art SSM-based models in image classification, detection and segmentation. Source codes and trained models can be found at https://github.com/EdwardChasel/Spatial-Mamba.

In a graph convolutional network, we assume that the graph G is generated wrt some observation noise. During learning, we make small random perturbations ΔG of the graph and try to improve generalization. Based on quantum information geometry, ΔG can be characterized by the eigendecomposition of the graph Laplacian matrix. We try to minimize the loss wrt the perturbed G+Δ{G} while making Δ{G} to be effective in terms of the Fisher information of the neural network. Our proposed model can consistently improve graph convolutional networks on semi-supervised node classification tasks with reasonable computational overhead. We present three different geometries on the manifold of graphs: the intrinsic geometry measures the information theoretic dynamics of a graph; the extrinsic geometry characterizes how such dynamics can affect externally a graph neural network; the embedding geometry is for measuring node embeddings. These new analytical tools are useful in developing a good understanding of graph neural networks and fostering new techniques.

This paper presents a low-dimensional observer design for stable, single-input single-output, continuous-time linear time-invariant (LTI) systems. Leveraging the model reduction by moment matching technique, we approximate the system with a reduced-order model. Based on this reduced-order model, we design a low-dimensional observer that estimates the states of the original system. We show that this observer establishes exact asymptotic state reconstruction for a given class of inputs tied to the observer's dimension. Furthermore, we establish an exponential input-to-state stability property for generic inputs, ensuring a bounded estimation error. Numerical simulations confirm the effectiveness of the approach for a benchmark model reduction problem.

The deployment of modern network applications is increasing the network size and traffic volumes at an unprecedented pace. Storing network-related information (e.g., traffic traces) is key to enable efficient network management. However, this task is becoming more challenging due to the ever-increasing data transmission rates and traffic volumes. In this paper, we present a novel method for network traffic compression that exploits spatial and temporal patterns naturally present in network traffic. We consider a realistic scenario where traffic measurements are performed at multiple links of a network topology using tools like SNMP or NetFlow. Such measurements can be seen as multiple time series that exhibit spatial and temporal correlations induced by the network topology, routing or user behavior. Our method leverages graph learning methods to effectively exploit both types of correlations for traffic compression. The experimental results show that our solution is able to outperform GZIP, the de facto traffic compression method, improving by 50\%-65\% the compression ratio on three real-world networks.

Language environments such as web browsers, code terminals, and interactive simulations emit raw text rather than states, and provide none of the runtime structure that MDP analysis requires. No explicit state space, no observation-to-state mapping, no certified transitions, and no termination criterion. We introduce the State-Centric Decision Process (SDP), a runtime framework that constructs these missing inputs by having the agent build them, predicate by predicate, as it acts. At each step the agent commits to a natural-language predicate describing how the world should look, takes an action to make it true, and checks the observation against it. Predicates that pass become certified states, and the resulting trajectory carries the four objects language environments do not provide, namely a task-induced state space, an observation-to-state mapping, certified transitions, and a termination criterion. We evaluate SDP on five benchmarks spanning planning, scientific exploration, web reasoning, and multi-hop question answering. SDP achieves the best training-free results on all five, with the advantage widening as the horizon grows. The certified trajectories additionally support analyses unavailable to reactive agents, including per-predicate credit assignment, failure localization, partial-progress measurement, and modular operator replacement.

The capability of autonomous exploration in complex, unknown environments is important in many robotic applications. While recent research on autonomous exploration have achieved much progress, there are still limitations, e.g., existing methods relying on greedy heuristics or optimal path planning are often hindered by repetitive paths and high computational demands. To address such limitations, we propose a novel exploration framework that utilizes the global topology information of observed environment to improve exploration efficiency while reducing computational overhead. Specifically, global information is utilized based on a skeletal topological graph representation of the environment geometry. We first propose an incremental skeleton extraction method based on wavefront propagation, based on which we then design an approach to generate a lightweight topological graph that can effectively capture the environment's structural characteristics. Building upon this, we introduce a finite state machine that leverages the topological structure to efficiently plan coverage paths, which can substantially mitigate the back-and-forth maneuvers (BFMs) problem. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our method in comparison with state-of-the-art methods. The source code will be made publicly available at: https://github.com/Haochen-Niu/STGPlanner.

Classical state estimation algorithms rely on predefined target's state-space model, which complicates model derivation and limits adaptability when system dynamics change. Neural network based estimators offer a data-driven alternative, but rarely fuse classical estimation theory into their structure and demand large, pre-computed training sets. To overcome these limitations, we propose a unified state-space structure without target's state-space model and treats both the input-layer activations and all network weights as latent states to be estimated online. We instantiate this nonlinear model with three canonical estimators-the extended Kalman estimator, the unscented Kalman estimator, and the particle estimator to simulate different neural network and demonstrate its generality. We then benchmark our approach against seven leading neural network estimators across three representative scenarios. Results show that our neural network state-space estimators not only retain the robust learning capability, but also match or exceed the accuracy of both classical and pre-trained neural network methods. Code, data, and more result: github.com/ShineMinxing/PaperNNSSE.git

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

Learning useful representations for continuous-time dynamic graphs (CTDGs) is challenging, due to the concurrent need to span long node interaction histories and grasp nuanced temporal details. In particular, two problems emerge: (1) Encoding longer histories requires more computational resources, making it crucial for CTDG models to maintain low computational complexity to ensure efficiency; (2) Meanwhile, more powerful models are needed to identify and select the most critical temporal information within the extended context provided by longer histories. To address these problems, we propose a CTDG representation learning model named DyGMamba, originating from the popular Mamba state space model (SSM). DyGMamba first leverages a node-level SSM to encode the sequence of historical node interactions. Another time-level SSM is then employed to exploit the temporal patterns hidden in the historical graph, where its output is used to dynamically select the critical information from the interaction history. We validate DyGMamba experimentally on the dynamic link prediction task. The results show that our model achieves state-of-the-art in most cases. DyGMamba also maintains high efficiency in terms of computational resources, making it possible to capture long temporal dependencies with a limited computation budget.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown promising potential in graph representation learning. The majority of GNNs define a local message-passing mechanism, propagating information over the graph by stacking multiple layers. These methods, however, are known to suffer from two major limitations: over-squashing and poor capturing of long-range dependencies. Recently, Graph Transformers (GTs) emerged as a powerful alternative to Message-Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs). GTs, however, have quadratic computational cost, lack inductive biases on graph structures, and rely on complex Positional/Structural Encodings (SE/PE). In this paper, we show that while Transformers, complex message-passing, and SE/PE are sufficient for good performance in practice, neither is necessary. Motivated by the recent success of State Space Models (SSMs), such as Mamba, we present Graph Mamba Networks (GMNs), a general framework for a new class of GNNs based on selective SSMs. We discuss and categorize the new challenges when adopting SSMs to graph-structured data, and present four required and one optional steps to design GMNs, where we choose (1) Neighborhood Tokenization, (2) Token Ordering, (3) Architecture of Bidirectional Selective SSM Encoder, (4) Local Encoding, and dispensable (5) PE and SE. We further provide theoretical justification for the power of GMNs. Experiments demonstrate that despite much less computational cost, GMNs attain an outstanding performance in long-range, small-scale, large-scale, and heterophilic benchmark datasets.

Verifying the reliability of complex, multi-step reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs) remains a fundamental challenge, as existing methods often lack both faithfulness and precision. To address this issue, we propose the Graph of Verification (GoV) framework. GoV offers three key contributions: First, it explicitly models the underlying deductive process as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), whether this structure is implicit or explicitly constructed. Second, it enforces a topological order over the DAG to guide stepwise verification. Third, GoV introduces the notion of customizable node blocks, which flexibly define the verification granularity, from atomic propositions to full paragraphs, while ensuring that all requisite premises derived from the graph are provided as contextual input for each verification unit. We evaluate GoV on the Number Triangle Summation task and the ProcessBench benchmark with varying levels of reasoning complexity. Experimental results show that GoV substantially improves verification accuracy, faithfulness, and error localization when compared to conventional end-to-end verification approaches. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/Frevor/Graph-of-Verification.

Adaptive hierarchical systems accumulate routing state as they learn which components to select. We show that this state already defines a coherent attribution over the hierarchy. A leaf receives the product of the local routing weights on its path, while an internal node receives the corresponding prefix product. The same learned state can therefore be read consistently at group and component levels, and every finer readout sums exactly to its coarser counterpart. This attribution describes the preferences learned by the deployed router rather than an intrinsic or counterfactual value of a component. Across LLM, Census, agentic, and telecom-network hierarchies, the learned state contains meaningful structure at several levels, and the clearest organisation need not occur at the leaves. In the telecom study, Site- or Region-level readouts usually reveal clearer structure than Cell-level readouts. Comparison with Shapley attribution can then show whether the preferences learned in deployment match capabilities revealed by counterfactual coalitions. The result is a hierarchical explanation that requires no separate attribution model: the same routing state supports consistent explanations at several levels of the system.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

Many control tasks exhibit similar dynamics that can be modeled as having common latent structure. Hidden-Parameter Markov Decision Processes (HiP-MDPs) explicitly model this structure to improve sample efficiency in multi-task settings. However, this setting makes strong assumptions on the observability of the state that limit its application in real-world scenarios with rich observation spaces. In this work, we leverage ideas of common structure from the HiP-MDP setting, and extend it to enable robust state abstractions inspired by Block MDPs. We derive instantiations of this new framework for both multi-task reinforcement learning (MTRL) and meta-reinforcement learning (Meta-RL) settings. Further, we provide transfer and generalization bounds based on task and state similarity, along with sample complexity bounds that depend on the aggregate number of samples across tasks, rather than the number of tasks, a significant improvement over prior work that use the same environment assumptions. To further demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method, we empirically compare and show improvement over multi-task and meta-reinforcement learning baselines.

Existing offline hierarchical reinforcement learning methods rely on high-level policy learning to generate subgoal sequences. However, their efficiency degrades as task horizons increase, and they lack effective strategies for stitching useful state transitions across different trajectories. We propose Graph-Assisted Stitching (GAS), a novel framework that formulates subgoal selection as a graph search problem rather than learning an explicit high-level policy. By embedding states into a Temporal Distance Representation (TDR) space, GAS clusters semantically similar states from different trajectories into unified graph nodes, enabling efficient transition stitching. A shortest-path algorithm is then applied to select subgoal sequences within the graph, while a low-level policy learns to reach the subgoals. To improve graph quality, we introduce the Temporal Efficiency (TE) metric, which filters out noisy or inefficient transition states, significantly enhancing task performance. GAS outperforms prior offline HRL methods across locomotion, navigation, and manipulation tasks. Notably, in the most stitching-critical task, it achieves a score of 88.3, dramatically surpassing the previous state-of-the-art score of 1.0. Our source code is available at: https://github.com/qortmdgh4141/GAS.

Imitation from observation is a computational technique that teaches an agent on how to mimic the behavior of an expert by observing only the sequence of states from the expert demonstrations. Recent approaches learn the inverse dynamics of the environment and an imitation policy by interleaving epochs of both models while changing the demonstration data. However, such approaches often get stuck into sub-optimal solutions that are distant from the expert, limiting their imitation effectiveness. We address this problem with a novel approach that overcomes the problem of reaching bad local minima by exploring: (I) a self-attention mechanism that better captures global features of the states; and (ii) a sampling strategy that regulates the observations that are used for learning. We show empirically that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches in four different environments by a large margin.

AI weather forecasting models are commonly trained on the ERA5 reanalysis, which is unavailable in real time. Operational deployment therefore relies on initial conditions produced by numerical or AI analysis systems that differ from those encountered during training. This mismatch can degrade forecast skill, while retraining for every analysis system is costly. Here, we present Domain-Adaptive Data Assimilation (DADA), an observation-guided framework that adapts external analyses to pretrained AI weather models. Starting from a background state, DADA optimizes only an initial-state perturbation while keeping the forecast model frozen. The perturbed state is propagated through the model, and its short-range trajectory is constrained by real-world observations through a learned observation operator. The resulting initial condition is shaped jointly by observational constraints and the dynamics learned by the target model. We evaluate DADA across five global AI weather models using backgrounds from the Global Forecast System and the AI-based HealDA. Across deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, DADA substantially reduces short-range skill loss caused by changes in the initial-condition source. More broadly, DADA turns observations into a common interface between independently developed analysis and forecasting systems, enabling pretrained AI weather models to accommodate evolving operational initial conditions without reconstructing ERA5 or retraining the forecast model.

Symbolic world modeling requires inferring and representing an environment's transitional dynamics as an executable program. Prior work has focused on largely deterministic environments with abundant interaction data, simple mechanics, and human guidance. We address a more realistic and challenging setting, learning in a complex, stochastic environment where the agent has only "one life" to explore a hostile environment without human guidance. We introduce OneLife, a framework that models world dynamics through conditionally-activated programmatic laws within a probabilistic programming framework. Each law operates through a precondition-effect structure, activating in relevant world states. This creates a dynamic computation graph that routes inference and optimization only through relevant laws, avoiding scaling challenges when all laws contribute to predictions about a complex, hierarchical state, and enabling the learning of stochastic dynamics even with sparse rule activation. To evaluate our approach under these demanding constraints, we introduce a new evaluation protocol that measures (a) state ranking, the ability to distinguish plausible future states from implausible ones, and (b) state fidelity, the ability to generate future states that closely resemble reality. We develop and evaluate our framework on Crafter-OO, our reimplementation of the Crafter environment that exposes a structured, object-oriented symbolic state and a pure transition function that operates on that state alone. OneLife can successfully learn key environment dynamics from minimal, unguided interaction, outperforming a strong baseline on 16 out of 23 scenarios tested. We also test OneLife's planning ability, with simulated rollouts successfully identifying superior strategies. Our work establishes a foundation for autonomously constructing programmatic world models of unknown, complex environments.

Graphs have often been used to answer questions about the interaction between real-world entities by taking advantage of their capacity to represent complex topologies. Complex networks are known to be graphs that capture such non-trivial topologies; they are able to represent human phenomena such as epidemic processes, the dynamics of populations, and the urbanization of cities. The investigation of complex networks has been extrapolated to many fields of science, with particular emphasis on computing techniques, including artificial intelligence. In such a case, the analysis of the interaction between entities of interest is transposed to the internal learning of algorithms, a paradigm whose investigation is able to expand the state of the art in Computer Science. By exploring this paradigm, this thesis puts together complex networks and machine learning techniques to improve the understanding of the human phenomena observed in pandemics, pendular migration, and street networks. Accordingly, we contribute with: (i) a new neural network architecture capable of modeling dynamic processes observed in spatial and temporal data with applications in epidemics propagation, weather forecasting, and patient monitoring in intensive care units; (ii) a machine-learning methodology for analyzing and predicting links in the scope of human mobility between all the cities of Brazil; and, (iii) techniques for identifying inconsistencies in the urban planning of cities while tracking the most influential vertices, with applications over Brazilian and worldwide cities. We obtained results sustained by sound evidence of advances to the state of the art in artificial intelligence, rigorous formalisms, and ample experimentation. Our findings rely upon real-world applications in a range of domains, demonstrating the applicability of our methodologies.

As economics scales, a key bottleneck is representing what papers claim in a comparable, aggregable form. We introduce evidence-annotated claim graphs that map each paper into a directed network of standardized economic concepts (nodes) and stated relationships (edges), with each edge labeled by evidentiary basis, including whether it is supported by causal inference designs or by non-causal evidence. Using a structured multi-stage AI workflow, we construct claim graphs for 44,852 economics papers from 1980-2023. The share of causal edges rises from 7.7% in 1990 to 31.7% in 2020. Measures of causal narrative structure and causal novelty are positively associated with top-five publication and long-run citations, whereas non-causal counterparts are weakly related or negative.

In recent years, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have made significant advances in processing structured data. However, most of them primarily adopted a model-centric approach, which simplifies graphs by converting them into undirected formats and emphasizes model designs. This approach is inherently limited in real-world applications due to the unavoidable information loss in simple undirected graphs and the model optimization challenges that arise when exceeding the upper bounds of this sub-optimal data representational capacity. As a result, there has been a shift toward data-centric methods that prioritize improving graph quality and representation. Specifically, various types of graphs can be derived from naturally structured data, including heterogeneous graphs, hypergraphs, and directed graphs. Among these, directed graphs offer distinct advantages in topological systems by modeling causal relationships, and directed GNNs have been extensively studied in recent years. However, a comprehensive survey of this emerging topic is still lacking. Therefore, we aim to provide a comprehensive review of directed graph learning, with a particular focus on a data-centric perspective. Specifically, we first introduce a novel taxonomy for existing studies. Subsequently, we re-examine these methods from the data-centric perspective, with an emphasis on understanding and improving data representation. It demonstrates that a deep understanding of directed graphs and their quality plays a crucial role in model performance. Additionally, we explore the diverse applications of directed GNNs across 10+ domains, highlighting their broad applicability. Finally, we identify key opportunities and challenges within the field, offering insights that can guide future research and development in directed graph learning.

In real-world scenarios, the application of reinforcement learning is significantly challenged by complex non-stationarity. Most existing methods attempt to model changes in the environment explicitly, often requiring impractical prior knowledge of environments. In this paper, we propose a new perspective, positing that non-stationarity can propagate and accumulate through complex causal relationships during state transitions, thereby compounding its sophistication and affecting policy learning. We believe that this challenge can be more effectively addressed by implicitly tracing the causal origin of non-stationarity. To this end, we introduce the Causal-Origin REPresentation (COREP) algorithm. COREP primarily employs a guided updating mechanism to learn a stable graph representation for the state, termed as causal-origin representation. By leveraging this representation, the learned policy exhibits impressive resilience to non-stationarity. We supplement our approach with a theoretical analysis grounded in the causal interpretation for non-stationary reinforcement learning, advocating for the validity of the causal-origin representation. Experimental results further demonstrate the superior performance of COREP over existing methods in tackling non-stationarity problems.

We consider stochastic sequential learning problems where the learner can observe the average reward of several actions. Such a setting is interesting in many applications involving monitoring and surveillance, where the set of the actions to observe represent some (geographical) area. The importance of this setting is that in these applications, it is actually cheaper to observe average reward of a group of actions rather than the reward of a single action. We show that when the reward is smooth over a given graph representing the neighboring actions, we can maximize the cumulative reward of learning while minimizing the sensing cost. In this paper we propose CheapUCB, an algorithm that matches the regret guarantees of the known algorithms for this setting and at the same time guarantees a linear cost again over them. As a by-product of our analysis, we establish a Ω(dT) lower bound on the cumulative regret of spectral bandits for a class of graphs with effective dimension d.

We study the problem of procedure planning in instructional videos, which aims to make a goal-oriented sequence of action steps given partial visual state observations. The motivation of this problem is to learn a structured and plannable state and action space. Recent works succeeded in sequence modeling of steps with only sequence-level annotations accessible during training, which overlooked the roles of states in the procedures. In this work, we point out that State CHangEs MAtter (SCHEMA) for procedure planning in instructional videos. We aim to establish a more structured state space by investigating the causal relations between steps and states in procedures. Specifically, we explicitly represent each step as state changes and track the state changes in procedures. For step representation, we leveraged the commonsense knowledge in large language models (LLMs) to describe the state changes of steps via our designed chain-of-thought prompting. For state change tracking, we align visual state observations with language state descriptions via cross-modal contrastive learning, and explicitly model the intermediate states of the procedure using LLM-generated state descriptions. Experiments on CrossTask, COIN, and NIV benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed SCHEMA model achieves state-of-the-art performance and obtains explainable visualizations.

In liberalised railway systems, operators must set prices dynamically in an environment with partial observability, as they retain private information about their objectives and performance, where regulatory constraints prohibit communication or direct information exchange between competitors to prevent explicit collusion. Consequently, agents must learn to infer strategic interactions only from observable market data which presents a significant challenge for multi-agent reinforcement learning, where standard approaches typically treat observations as unstructured vectors, ignoring the underlying market topology that governs strategic interactions. To address this, an entity graph modelling approach is proposed, which represents the environment as a graph of operational units, rather than decision-making agents or static infrastructure, encoding competition, coordination, and connectivity relations between entities. Then, an extension of the multi-agent twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm with graph-based representation learning processes the features of the entities through a multi-layer relational graph convolutional network and aggregates them via a learnt attention mechanism. Experimental results in a rail pricing reinforcement learning environment show that this novel framework achieves higher revenue and stability in two different settings of increasing market complexity compared to a representative selection of relational and non-relational baselines. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Kinrre/RelationalRailPricing-RL

Extending discrete-time causal Prior-data Fitted Networks for time series to continuous time invites writing the mechanism as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) -- but if the SDE is integrated once per observation gap, the trajectory law depends on when it is observed, and the prior remains a discrete-time Markov model in SDE clothing. We propose a precise continuity criterion -- trajectory-law invariance to the observation schedule -- together with a three-tier taxonomy (discrete; naive observation-grid integration; fine-grid integration with decoupled observation) and a construction realising the top tier on a random DAG with OU or small-MLP nonlinear drifts, irregular observation schedules, and hard / soft / time-varying interventions. A 2 times 2 encoder times integrator ablation, run independently on a linear and a nonlinear prior, finds fine-grid integration beats naive on 8/8 cells (sign-consistency p < 1/256) with the gap growing as the eval grid refines; the encoder axis is null with fine integration but time-aware-leading with naive. We release the prior and a preliminary zero-shot protocol on pharmacokinetic and physical-system data.

The do-calculus defines a general system of inference for interventional queries, allowing causal quantities to be transformed through successive applications of its rules. This process induces a rich space of equivalent interventional expressions, but combining and ordering these rules remains challenging. In this work, we introduce derivation graphs, which represent how do-calculus rules are applied and combined, and characterize the full space of observational and interventional probabilities which are equivalent under the do-calculus. The structure of these graphs yields a simple procedure that uses at most four applications of do-calculus rules. Finally, we show how applying identification algorithms to equivalent causal queries produces multiple valid estimands for the same causal quantity, eventually yielding more efficient estimators.

We study the implications of the modeling choice to use a graph, instead of a hypergraph, to represent real-world interconnected systems whose constituent relationships are of higher order by nature. Such a modeling choice typically involves an underlying projection process that maps the original hypergraph onto a graph, and is common in graph-based analysis. While hypergraph projection can potentially lead to loss of higher-order relations, there exists very limited studies on the consequences of doing so, as well as its remediation. This work fills this gap by doing two things: (1) we develop analysis based on graph and set theory, showing two ubiquitous patterns of hyperedges that are root to structural information loss in all hypergraph projections; we also quantify the combinatorial impossibility of recovering the lost higher-order structures if no extra help is provided; (2) we still seek to recover the lost higher-order structures in hypergraph projection, and in light of (1)'s findings we propose to relax the problem into a learning-based setting. Under this setting, we develop a learning-based hypergraph reconstruction method based on an important statistic of hyperedge distributions that we find. Our reconstruction method is evaluated on 8 real-world datasets under different settings, and exhibits consistently good performance. We also demonstrate benefits of the reconstructed hypergraphs via use cases of protein rankings and link predictions.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly used in multi-image, multi-turn agentic settings where decisions depend on visual changes. However, in existing open-weight VLMs, visual comparisons happen only inside the language model, while the visual encoder itself remains stateless: each image is encoded independently, without access to the prior visual context. As a result, small but task-critical changes may be attenuated before the language model has a chance to compare them, especially when those changes do not affect the high-level semantics of the scene. We introduce a Stateful Visual Encoder, which conditions each visual representation on prior visual features. Under supervised finetuning, VLMs equipped with stateful encoders achieve consistent improvements on controlled tasks involving cross-image spatial aggregation, multi-object visual differencing, and visual trajectory behavior cloning. These improvements are consistent across input resolutions, language model sizes, and VLM backbones. Finally, we validate our model on real-world tasks, including longitudinal radiology, fine-grained image comparison, and remote sensing, where stateful encoders consistently improve generalist VLM baselines and can match or surpass specialized models in selected domains. Project page: https://statefulvisualencoders.github.io/

We study nonlinear filtering with misspecified initial distributions and dynamics, but a correctly specified observation model. Observations are treated as a random process generated by the true model, rather than as fixed realizations, and both the correct filter and the misspecified filter are analyzed under this common observation law. Our main result is a Bayesian total variation balance identity for the expected change in total variation distance under a Bayesian update: a covariance term minus a non-negative remainder. The identity characterizes conditional and averaged update non-expansivity. Combined with prediction contraction, it yields finite-time bounds separating the initialization error from accumulated dynamical discrepancies, while allowing expansive updates. When the averaged updates are non-expansive and a uniform joint prediction--update coefficient is less than one, a persistent dynamical misspecification yields an asymptotic error bound proportional to the one-step discrepancy. When the conditional updates are non-expansive, we characterize an accumulated joint contraction that implies almost-sure and \(L^1\) coalescence of the true and misspecified filters. Finally, we verify update non-expansivity for scalar Gaussian predictive laws under a variance-ordering condition and, separately, derive explicit prediction contraction bounds for truncated kernels and bounded transition functions with elliptically symmetric noise.

Research in Graph Signal Processing (GSP) aims to develop tools for processing data defined on irregular graph domains. In this paper we first provide an overview of core ideas in GSP and their connection to conventional digital signal processing. We then summarize recent developments in developing basic GSP tools, including methods for sampling, filtering or graph learning. Next, we review progress in several application areas using GSP, including processing and analysis of sensor network data, biological data, and applications to image processing and machine learning. We finish by providing a brief historical perspective to highlight how concepts recently developed in GSP build on top of prior research in other areas.

We address a fundamental challenge in Reinforcement Learning from Interaction Demonstration (RLID): demonstration noise and coverage limitations. While existing data collection approaches provide valuable interaction demonstrations, they often yield sparse, disconnected, and noisy trajectories that fail to capture the full spectrum of possible skill variations and transitions. Our key insight is that despite noisy and sparse demonstrations, there exist infinite physically feasible trajectories that naturally bridge between demonstrated skills or emerge from their neighboring states, forming a continuous space of possible skill variations and transitions. Building upon this insight, we present two data augmentation techniques: a Stitched Trajectory Graph (STG) that discovers potential transitions between demonstration skills, and a State Transition Field (STF) that establishes unique connections for arbitrary states within the demonstration neighborhood. To enable effective RLID with augmented data, we develop an Adaptive Trajectory Sampling (ATS) strategy for dynamic curriculum generation and a historical encoding mechanism for memory-dependent skill learning. Our approach enables robust skill acquisition that significantly generalizes beyond the reference demonstrations. Extensive experiments across diverse interaction tasks demonstrate substantial improvements over state-of-the-art methods in terms of convergence stability, generalization capability, and recovery robustness.

Long-term action anticipation (LTA) aims to predict an ordered sequence of future verb-noun actions from a partially observed video. While this task serves as the foundation for embodied intelligence, anticipating physically feasible long-term actions remains a critical challenge. Existing methods, which operate in an open-loop manner, often hallucinate non-existent objects, violate object affordances, or disregard object states, as they lack explicit mechanisms to verify action feasibility against the physical environment. To address this, we propose FactCheck, a novel multi-agent collaboration framework that improves feasibility through a closed-loop "Observe-Plan-Verify" mechanism. FactCheck decomposes the complex LTA task into specialized roles: an Observer that recognizes historical actions from video observations and constructs a dual-form structured memory, comprising a History Action Abstract that captures high-level human intentions and environmental status, and a History Action Graph that encodes object states and temporal dependencies; a Planner that generates draft future actions conditioned on both low-level historical actions and high-level History Action Abstract; and a Verifier that rigorously validates the draft against the History Action Graph and refines infeasible actions. Extensive experiments on the EPIC-Kitchens-55 and EGTEA Gaze+ benchmarks demonstrate that FactCheck consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Our work establishes a new paradigm for feasibility-aware long-term action anticipation, effectively closing the loop of action recognition, action prediction and action verification.

This tutorial serves as a comprehensive guide for understanding graph databases, focusing on the fundamentals of graph theory while showcasing practical applications across various fields. It starts by introducing foundational concepts and delves into the structure of graphs through nodes and edges, covering different types such as undirected, directed, weighted, and unweighted graphs. Key graph properties, terminologies, and essential algorithms for network analysis are outlined, including Dijkstras shortest path algorithm and methods for calculating node centrality and graph connectivity. The tutorial highlights the advantages of graph databases over traditional relational databases, particularly in efficiently managing complex, interconnected data. It examines leading graph database systems such as Neo4j, Amazon Neptune, and ArangoDB, emphasizing their unique features for handling large datasets. Practical instructions on graph operations using NetworkX and Neo4j are provided, covering node and edge creation, attribute assignment, and advanced queries with Cypher. Additionally, the tutorial explores common graph visualization techniques using tools like Plotly and Neo4j Bloom, which enhance the interpretation and usability of graph data. It also delves into community detection algorithms, including the Louvain method, which facilitates clustering in large networks. Finally, the paper concludes with recommendations for researchers interested in exploring the vast potential of graph technologies.

Observability into the decision making of modern AI systems may be required to safely deploy increasingly capable agents. Monitoring the chain-of-thought (CoT) of today's reasoning models has proven effective for detecting misbehavior. However, this "monitorability" may be fragile under different training procedures, data sources, or even continued system scaling. To measure and track monitorability, we propose three evaluation archetypes (intervention, process, and outcome-property) and a new monitorability metric, and introduce a broad evaluation suite. We demonstrate that these evaluations can catch simple model organisms trained to have obfuscated CoTs, and that CoT monitoring is more effective than action-only monitoring in practical settings. We compare the monitorability of various frontier models and find that most models are fairly, but not perfectly, monitorable. We also evaluate how monitorability scales with inference-time compute, reinforcement learning optimization, and pre-training model size. We find that longer CoTs are generally more monitorable and that RL optimization does not materially decrease monitorability even at the current frontier scale. Notably, we find that for a model at a low reasoning effort, we could instead deploy a smaller model at a higher reasoning effort (thereby matching capabilities) and obtain a higher monitorability, albeit at a higher overall inference compute cost. We further investigate agent-monitor scaling trends and find that scaling a weak monitor's test-time compute when monitoring a strong agent increases monitorability. Giving the weak monitor access to CoT not only improves monitorability, but it steepens the monitor's test-time compute to monitorability scaling trend. Finally, we show we can improve monitorability by asking models follow-up questions and giving their follow-up CoT to the monitor.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Multi-agent interactive world models should not only generate consistent observations, but also maintain world states that persist across agents and evolve across views. Existing autoregressive video diffusion pipelines carry forward observation history as conditioning context, which makes shared state difficult to maintain in multi-agent and multi-view settings. We present WorldWeaver (W^2), a streaming multi-agent video diffusion model that augments rollout with cross-agent world state registers: learnable tokens that store shared world information, track individual agent status, and are dynamically updated after each generated chunk. We ground these registers with supervision signals spanning individual agent status, global state views including bird's-eye views, and scene text. We further improve the architecture with a Mixture-of-Transformers design that uses separate weights for world state modeling and visual frame modeling. Extensive experiments in two-agent Minecraft video generation show that explicit world-state modeling improves logical consistency and generation quality.

We study the hop-constrained s-t path enumeration (HcPE) problem, which takes a graph G, two distinct vertices s,t and a hop constraint k as input, and outputs all paths from s to t whose length is at most k. The state-of-the-art algorithms suffer from severe performance issues caused by the costly pruning operations during enumeration for the workloads with the large search space. Consequently, these algorithms hardly meet the real-time constraints of many online applications. In this paper, we propose PathEnum, an efficient index-based algorithm towards real-time HcPE. For an input query, PathEnum first builds a light-weight index aiming to reduce the number of edges involved in the enumeration, and develops efficient index-based approaches for enumeration, one based on depth-first search and the other based on joins. We further develop a query optimizer based on a join-based cost model to optimize the search order. We conduct experiments with 15 real-world graphs. Our experiment results show that PathEnum outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches by orders of magnitude in terms of the query time, throughput and response time.

Low latent prediction error does not establish that a world model distinguishes the consequences of its actions. We introduce an evaluation protocol that traces the same intervention through simulator state, raster observations, target embeddings, and predictor outputs. Exact simulator-state forks in a controlled deformable-physics testbed reveal distinct bottlenecks. Changed commands alter particle motion, yet 41.5% of one-step raster pairs are identical. Observation loss is not the whole explanation: among 579 high-visibility counterfactuals, median predictor-to-target response is 0.0051 and 0.0217 across two seeds, falling to 0.0027 and 0.0116 after variance normalization. An isotropic state perturbation matched to the target counterfactual embedding shift produces 190x and 53x larger predictor changes on the same visible pairs, isolating action-path under-use rather than a dead or globally shrunk predictor. MSE-only training gives 8.36x lower 10-step latent error in matched seeds, but in spectrally concentrated spaces; one VICReg target encoder is also strongly concentrated, so neither error nor rank alone certifies physical state. Finally, stiffness remains near chance even from full-resolution rasters and mechanical state while privileged material parameters decode perfectly, indicating weak identifiability under this excitation rather than encoder discard. These results motivate auditing physical effect, observation visibility, representation geometry, and action dependence separately.

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues. These incomplete spatiotemporal records impede reliable inference and risk assessment and can lead to overconfident extrapolation. To address these challenges, we propose an end to end framework, the channel gated learning unit based spatiotemporal bayesian neural field (CGLUBNF). It uses Fourier features with a graph attention encoder to capture multiscale spatial dependencies and seasonal temporal dynamics. A channel gated learning unit, equipped with learnable activations and gated residual connections, adaptively filters and amplifies informative features. Bayesian inference jointly optimizes predictive distributions and parameter uncertainty, producing point estimates and calibrated prediction intervals. We conduct a systematic evaluation on two real world datasets, covering four typical missing data patterns and comparing against five state of the art baselines. CGLUBNF achieves superior prediction accuracy and sharper confidence intervals. In addition, we further validate robustness across multiple prediction horizons and analysis the contribution of extraneous variables. This research lays a foundation for reliable deep learning based spatio-temporal forecasting with incomplete observations in emerging sensing paradigms, such as real world vehicle borne mobile monitoring.

Vision transformers have significantly advanced the field of computer vision, offering robust modeling capabilities and global receptive field. However, their high computational demands limit their applicability in processing long sequences. To tackle this issue, State Space Models (SSMs) have gained prominence in vision tasks as they offer linear computational complexity. Recently, State Space Duality (SSD), an improved variant of SSMs, was introduced in Mamba2 to enhance model performance and efficiency. However, the inherent causal nature of SSD/SSMs restricts their applications in non-causal vision tasks. To address this limitation, we introduce Visual State Space Duality (VSSD) model, which has a non-causal format of SSD. Specifically, we propose to discard the magnitude of interactions between the hidden state and tokens while preserving their relative weights, which relieves the dependencies of token contribution on previous tokens. Together with the involvement of multi-scan strategies, we show that the scanning results can be integrated to achieve non-causality, which not only improves the performance of SSD in vision tasks but also enhances its efficiency. We conduct extensive experiments on various benchmarks including image classification, detection, and segmentation, where VSSD surpasses existing state-of-the-art SSM-based models. Code and weights are available at https://github.com/YuHengsss/VSSD.

Social simulation offers the social sciences an experimental instrument that the real world cannot supply, and generative agents have transformed it by acting as silicon samples that unite agent-based modeling with real behavioral data. Existing platforms verify collective behavior, align simulated populations with real societies in cross-sections, and employ autonomous agents for the research process. However, two social science requirements remain without systematic support: intervention in the content of a simulation and the researcher's control over the process that produces it. We present SocioVerse2, which extends SocioVerse 1.0 into a human-AI co-evolutionary paradigm built from two loops and one infrastructure. The longitudinal simulation loop simulates the target population with evolving environments and forks counterfactual branches via interventions. The controllable research loop takes the study itself as an editable state and updates state versions via controllable editing. The social science agentic infrastructure carries both loops through composable skills with researcher checkpoints, a population service over five persona pools, and an environment service over 21 real-world signal sources with point-in-time guarantees. We validate SocioVerse2 across three case families and seven case studies, from reproducing canonical agent-based models to modeling policy processes on real records and nowcasting macro-economic indices beyond the response model's knowledge cutoff. With the human-AI co-evolutionary paradigm, these cases go beyond system demonstrations to become substantive studies that investigate frontier questions in their respective disciplines. Code, data services, and a workbench are released as open-source resources.

For a broad range of research, governmental and commercial applications it is important to understand the allegiances, communities and structure of key players in society. One promising direction towards extracting this information is to exploit the rich relational data in digital social networks (the social graph). As social media data sets are very large, most approaches make use of distributed computing systems for this purpose. Distributing graph processing requires solving many difficult engineering problems, which has lead some researchers to look at single-machine solutions that are faster and easier to maintain. In this article, we present a single-machine real-time system for large-scale graph processing that allows analysts to interactively explore graph structures. The key idea is that the aggregate actions of large numbers of users can be compressed into a data structure that encapsulates user similarities while being robust to noise and queryable in real-time. We achieve single machine real-time performance by compressing the neighbourhood of each vertex using minhash signatures and facilitate rapid queries through Locality Sensitive Hashing. These techniques reduce query times from hours using industrial desktop machines operating on the full graph to milliseconds on standard laptops. Our method allows exploration of strongly associated regions (i.e. communities) of large graphs in real-time on a laptop. It has been deployed in software that is actively used by social network analysts and offers another channel for media owners to monetise their data, helping them to continue to provide free services that are valued by billions of people globally.

Heatwaves pose significant health risks, particularly due to prolonged exposure to high summer temperatures. Vulnerable groups, especially pedestrians and cyclists on sun-exposed sidewalks, motivate the development of a route planning method that incorporates somatosensory temperature effects through shade ratio consideration. This paper is the first to introduce a pipeline that utilizes segmentation foundation models to extract shaded areas from high-resolution satellite images. These areas are then integrated into a multi-layered road map, enabling users to customize routes based on a balance between distance and shade exposure, thereby enhancing comfort and health during outdoor activities. Specifically, we construct a graph-based representation of the road map, where links indicate connectivity and are updated with shade ratio data for dynamic route planning. This system is already implemented online, with a video demonstration, and will be specifically adapted to assist travelers during the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.

Unveiling feeder topologies from data is of paramount importance to advance situational awareness and proper utilization of smart resources in power distribution grids. This tutorial summarizes, contrasts, and establishes useful links between recent works on topology identification and detection schemes that have been proposed for power distribution grids. The primary focus is to highlight methods that overcome the limited availability of measurement devices in distribution grids, while enhancing topology estimates using conservation laws of power-flow physics and structural properties of feeders. Grid data from phasor measurement units or smart meters can be collected either passively in the traditional way, or actively, upon actuating grid resources and measuring the feeder's voltage response. Analytical claims on feeder identifiability and detectability are reviewed under disparate meter placement scenarios. Such topology learning claims can be attained exactly or approximately so via algorithmic solutions with various levels of computational complexity, ranging from least-squares fits to convex optimization problems, and from polynomial-time searches over graphs to mixed-integer programs. Although the emphasis is on radial single-phase feeders, extensions to meshed and/or multiphase circuits are sometimes possible and discussed. This tutorial aspires to provide researchers and engineers with knowledge of the current state-of-the-art in tractable distribution grid learning and insights into future directions of work.