Daily Papers

Approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) graph indices such as HNSW and Vamana construct their edge topology in full-precision or high-fidelity quantized metric spaces, relegating binary quantization (BQ) to a post-hoc distance estimator during search. This paper asks a different question: Can binary quantization define the graph topology itself -- and if so, under what conditions? We study this question through QuIVer (Quantized Index for Vector Retrieval), a training-free ANN graph index that performs Vamana edge selection, diversity pruning, and beam-search navigation entirely within a 2-bit Sign-Magnitude BQ metric space, accessing float32 vectors only for final reranking. Systematic evaluation on twelve million-scale datasets reveals a sharp applicability boundary: BQ-native topology is highly effective on cosine-native contrastive-learning embeddings (>=88% Recall@10 at ef=64 across five datasets, 384--3072 dimensions), moderately effective on multimodal CLIP data (71--78%), and empirically unsuitable for Euclidean-native or structureless distributions (<15%). Our results suggest an empirical "impossible triangle" between aggressive compression, high throughput, and universal data compatibility. The central contribution is not merely the system, but the boundary it reveals: falsifiable criteria for when industrial vector search systems can safely trade metric fidelity for compact BQ-native navigation. On compatible workloads, the system benefits are substantial: QuIVer's BQ-native hot path (<1.3 GB for 1M vectors) yields 2.5--5.5x higher multi-threaded throughput than DiskANN Rust and HNSW variants at matched recall, with 4.7x less hot memory and no codebook or rotation training (unlike PQ/OPQ/RaBitQ).

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.

This paper studies the scale and redshift variation of density and velocity distributions in self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow by a halo-based non-projection approach. All particles are divided into halo and out-of-halo particles for redshift variation of distributions. Without projecting particle fields onto a structured grid, the scale variation is analyzed by identifying all particle pairs on different scales r. We demonstrate that: i) Delaunay tessellation can be used to reconstruct the density field. The density correlation, spectrum, and dispersion functions were obtained, modeled, and compared with the N-body simulation; ii) the velocity distributions are symmetric on both small and large scales and are non-symmetric with a negative skewness on intermediate scales due to the inverse energy cascade at a constant rate varepsilon_u; iii) On small scales, the even order moments of pairwise velocity Delta u_L follow a two-thirds law (-varepsilon_ur)^{2/3}, while the odd order moments follow a linear scaling langle(Delta u_L)^{2n+1}rangle=(2n+1)langle(Delta u_L)^{2n}ranglelangleDelta u_Lrangler; iv) The scale variation of the velocity distributions was studied for longitudinal velocities u_L or u_L^{'}, pairwise velocity (velocity difference) Delta u_L=u_L^{'}-u_L and velocity sum Sigma u_L=u^{'}_L+u_L. Fully developed velocity fields are never Gaussian on any scale, despite that they can initially be Gaussian; v) On small scales, u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a X distribution to maximize the system entropy; vi) On large scales, Delta u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a logistic or a X distribution; vii) the redshift variation of the velocity distributions follows the evolution of the X distribution involving a shape parameter alpha(z) decreasing with time.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

In the past two years, several points of view have been proposed to address the question of the generalization of the theory of free probability to random tensors with different invariances, and it is unclear at this point whether they lead to the same notions of tensorial free cumulants and freeness. One way to approach this problem, developed by Collins, Gurau and the second named author for local unitary invariant random tensors, relies on finite size quantities involving averages over the invariance group, and whose asymptotics naturally possess the properties expected for tensorial generalizations of free cumulants of arbitrary orders. At this point, this approach has only been carried out for certain distributions, and for a subset of the moments that define such theories, and a more systematic and exhaustive study is lacking. This is the program initiated in this paper: we link this approach to the one proposed by Nechita and Park; extend a number of their results as well as those of the aforementioned paper to arbitrary orders of fluctuations, thereby generalizing higher order free cumulants; push further the study of distributions with larger invariance groups; detail the link with the asymptotics of the free-energies of the tensor HCIZ and BGW integrals; and provide formulae for tensorial free cumulants of products of tensors. Another important question is that of the definition of concrete distributions whose tensorial free-cumulants take non-trivial values. We compute the tensorial free cumulants for Gaussian random tensors with non-trivial covariances, and show that they provide such examples.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

Tweedie distributions are a special case of exponential dispersion models, which are often used in classical statistics as distributions for generalized linear models. Here, we reveal that Tweedie distributions also play key roles in modern deep learning era, leading to a distribution independent self-supervised image denoising formula without clean reference images. Specifically, by combining with the recent Noise2Score self-supervised image denoising approach and the saddle point approximation of Tweedie distribution, we can provide a general closed-form denoising formula that can be used for large classes of noise distributions without ever knowing the underlying noise distribution. Similar to the original Noise2Score, the new approach is composed of two successive steps: score matching using perturbed noisy images, followed by a closed form image denoising formula via distribution-independent Tweedie's formula. This also suggests a systematic algorithm to estimate the noise model and noise parameters for a given noisy image data set. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate noise models and parameters, and provide the state-of-the-art self-supervised image denoising performance in the benchmark dataset and real-world dataset.

Straight line equation y=mx with slope m, when singularly perturbed as ay^3+y=mx with a positive parameter a, results in S-shaped curves or S-curves on a real plane. As arightarrow 0, we get back y=mx which is a cumulative distribution function of a continuous uniform distribution that describes the occurrence of every event in an interval to be equally probable. As arightarrowinfty, the derivative of y has finite support only at y=0 resembling a degenerate distribution. Based on these arguments, in this work, we propose that these S-curves can represent maximum entropy uniform distribution to a zero entropy single value. We also argue that these S-curves are superposable as they are only parametrically nonlinear but fundamentally linear. So far, the superposed forms have been used to capture the patterns of natural systems such as nonlinear dynamics of biological growth and kinetics of enzyme reactions. Here, we attempt to use the S-curve and its superposed form as statistical models. We fit the models on a classical dataset containing flower measurements of iris plants and analyze their usefulness in pattern recognition. Based on these models, we claim that any non-uniform pattern can be represented as a singular perturbation to uniform distribution. However, our parametric estimation procedure have some limitations such as sensitivity to initial conditions depending on the data at hand.

The infinitely wide neural network has been proven a useful and manageable mathematical model that enables the understanding of many phenomena appearing in deep learning. One example is the convergence of random deep networks to Gaussian processes that allows a rigorous analysis of the way the choice of activation function and network weights impacts the training dynamics. In this paper, we extend the seminal proof of Matthews et al. (2018) to a larger class of initial weight distributions (which we call PSEUDO-IID), including the established cases of IID and orthogonal weights, as well as the emerging low-rank and structured sparse settings celebrated for their computational speed-up benefits. We show that fully-connected and convolutional networks initialized with PSEUDO-IID distributions are all effectively equivalent up to their variance. Using our results, one can identify the Edge-of-Chaos for a broader class of neural networks and tune them at criticality in order to enhance their training. Moreover, they enable the posterior distribution of Bayesian Neural Networks to be tractable across these various initialization schemes.

Given only observational data X = g(Z), where both the latent variables Z and the generating process g are unknown, recovering Z is ill-posed without additional assumptions. Existing methods often assume linearity or rely on auxiliary supervision and functional constraints. However, such assumptions are rarely verifiable in practice, and most theoretical guarantees break down under even mild violations, leaving uncertainty about how to reliably understand the hidden world. To make identifiability actionable in the real-world scenarios, we take a complementary view: in the general settings where full identifiability is unattainable, what can still be recovered with guarantees, and what biases could be universally adopted? We introduce the problem of diverse dictionary learning to formalize this view. Specifically, we show that intersections, complements, and symmetric differences of latent variables linked to arbitrary observations, along with the latent-to-observed dependency structure, are still identifiable up to appropriate indeterminacies even without strong assumptions. These set-theoretic results can be composed using set algebra to construct structured and essential views of the hidden world, such as genus-differentia definitions. When sufficient structural diversity is present, they further imply full identifiability of all latent variables. Notably, all identifiability benefits follow from a simple inductive bias during estimation that can be readily integrated into most models. We validate the theory and demonstrate the benefits of the bias on both synthetic and real-world data.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

We introduce a principled probabilistic framework for reward-guided decoding in large language models, addressing the limitations of standard decoding methods that optimize token-level likelihood rather than sequence-level quality. Our method defines a reward-augmented target distribution over complete sequences by combining model transition probabilities with prefix-dependent reward potentials. Importantly, the approach is training-free: it leaves model weights unchanged and instead modifies the inference distribution via reward potentials, with all gains arising purely from inference-time sampling. To sample from this distribution, we develop Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, including a computationally efficient prefix-only variant and a lookahead variant whose intermediate targets match the exact marginals of the full sequence distribution. The framework also integrates resample-move updates with Metropolis-Hastings rejuvenation and supports block-wise generation, subsuming common decoding strategies such as temperature sampling and power-tempered objectives. Empirical results across three 7B models show significant gains. On code generation (HumanEval), our method improves base performance by up to 54.9% and surpasses the strongest sampling baselines by 9.1%-15.3%. On mathematical reasoning (MATH500), it achieves gains of up to 8.8%. Notably, it reaches 87.8% on HumanEval and 78.4% on MATH500 with Qwen2.5-7B, consistently outperforming the reinforcement learning method GRPO.

We introduce Probabilistic Dependent Type Systems (PDTS) via a functional language based on a subsystem of intuitionistic type theory including dependent sums and products, which is expanded to include stochastic functions. We provide a sampling-based semantics for the language based on non-deterministic beta reduction. Further, we derive a probabilistic logic from the PDTS introduced as a direct result of the Curry-Howard isomorphism. The probabilistic logic derived is shown to provide a universal representation for finite discrete distributions.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

We show that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are scaled by 1/depth (the only nontrivial scaling), result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This explains why the standard infinite-width-then-depth approach provides practical insights even for networks with depth of the same order as width. We also demonstrate that the pre-activations, in this case, have Gaussian distributions which has direct applications in Bayesian deep learning. We conduct extensive simulations that show an excellent match with our theoretical findings.

We look at the eigenvalues of the Hessian of a loss function before and after training. The eigenvalue distribution is seen to be composed of two parts, the bulk which is concentrated around zero, and the edges which are scattered away from zero. We present empirical evidence for the bulk indicating how over-parametrized the system is, and for the edges that depend on the input data.

We study the problem of predicting numeric labels that are constrained to the integers or to a subrange of the integers. For example, the number of up-votes on social media posts, or the number of bicycles available at a public rental station. While it is possible to model these as continuous values, and to apply traditional regression, this approach changes the underlying distribution on the labels from discrete to continuous. Discrete distributions have certain benefits, which leads us to the question whether such integer labels can be modeled directly by a discrete distribution, whose parameters are predicted from the features of a given instance. Moreover, we focus on the use case of output distributions of neural networks, which adds the requirement that the parameters of the distribution be continuous so that backpropagation and gradient descent may be used to learn the weights of the network. We investigate several options for such distributions, some existing and some novel, and test them on a range of tasks, including tabular learning, sequential prediction and image generation. We find that overall the best performance comes from two distributions: Bitwise, which represents the target integer in bits and places a Bernoulli distribution on each, and a discrete analogue of the Laplace distribution, which uses a distribution with exponentially decaying tails around a continuous mean.

We consider the problem of weakly supervised object detection, where the training samples are annotated using only image-level labels that indicate the presence or absence of an object category. In order to model the uncertainty in the location of the objects, we employ a dissimilarity coefficient based probabilistic learning objective. The learning objective minimizes the difference between an annotation agnostic prediction distribution and an annotation aware conditional distribution. The main computational challenge is the complex nature of the conditional distribution, which consists of terms over hundreds or thousands of variables. The complexity of the conditional distribution rules out the possibility of explicitly modeling it. Instead, we exploit the fact that deep learning frameworks rely on stochastic optimization. This allows us to use a state of the art discrete generative model that can provide annotation consistent samples from the conditional distribution. Extensive experiments on PASCAL VOC 2007 and 2012 data sets demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Markov categories are a recent category-theoretic approach to the foundations of probability and statistics. Here we develop this approach further by treating infinite products and the Kolmogorov extension theorem. This is relevant for all aspects of probability theory in which infinitely many random variables appear at a time. These infinite tensor products bigotimes_{i in J} X_i come in two versions: a weaker but more general one for families of objects (X_i)_{i in J} in semicartesian symmetric monoidal categories, and a stronger but more specific one for families of objects in Markov categories. As a first application, we state and prove versions of the zero-one laws of Kolmogorov and Hewitt-Savage for Markov categories. This gives general versions of these results which can be instantiated not only in measure-theoretic probability, where they specialize to the standard ones in the setting of standard Borel spaces, but also in other contexts.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

We study the Stochastic Boolean Function Certification (SBFC) problem, where we are given n Bernoulli random variables {X_e: e in U} on a ground set U of n elements with joint distribution p, a Boolean function f: 2^U to {0, 1}, and an (unknown) scenario S = {e in U: X_e = 1} of active elements sampled from p. We seek to probe the elements one-at-a-time to reveal if they are active until we can certify f(S) = 1, while minimizing the expected number of probes. Unlike most previous results that assume independence, we study correlated distributions p and give approximation algorithms for several classes of functions f. When f(S) is the indicator function for whether S is the spanning set of a given matroid, our problem reduces to finding a basis of active elements of a matroid by probing elements. We give a non-adaptive O(log n)-approximation algorithm for arbitrary distributions p, and show that this is tight up to constants unless P = NP, even for partition matroids. For uniform matroids, we give constant factor 4.642-approximation ([BBFT20]) that can be further improved to a 2-approximation if additionally the random variables are negatively correlated for the case of 1-uniform matroid. We also give an adaptive O(log k)-approximation algorithm for SBFC for k-uniform matroids for the Graph Probing problem, where we seek to probe the edges of a graph one-at-a-time until we find k active edges. The underlying distribution on edges arises from (hidden) independent vertex random variables, with an edge being active if at least one of its endpoints is active. This significantly improves over the information-theoretic lower bound on Ω(poly(n)) ([JGM19]) for adaptive algorithms for k-uniform matroids with arbitrary distributions.

Modern language models define distributions over strings, but downstream tasks often require different output formats. For instance, a model that generates byte-pair strings does not directly produce word-level predictions, and a DNA model does not directly produce amino-acid sequences. In such cases, a deterministic string-to-string transformation can convert the model's output to the desired form. This is a familiar pattern in probability theory: applying a function f to a random variable Xsim p yields a transformed random variable f(X) with an induced distribution. While such transformations are occasionally used in language modeling, prior work does not treat them as yielding new, fully functional language models. We formalize this perspective and introduce a general framework for language models derived from deterministic string-to-string transformations. We focus on transformations representable as finite-state transducers -- a commonly used state-machine abstraction for efficient string-to-string mappings. We develop algorithms that compose a language model with an FST to *marginalize* over source strings mapping to a given target, propagating probabilities through the transducer without altering model parameters and enabling *conditioning* on transformed outputs. We present an exact algorithm, an efficient approximation, and a theoretical analysis. We conduct experiments in three domains: converting language models from tokens to bytes, from tokens to words, and from DNA to amino acids. These experiments demonstrate inference-time adaptation of pretrained language models to match application-specific output requirements.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

We test whether artificial intelligence architectural evolution obeys the same statistical laws as biological evolution. Compiling 935 ablation experiments from 161 publications, we show that the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of architectural modifications follows a heavy-tailed Student's t-distribution with proportions (68% deleterious, 19% neutral, 13% beneficial for major ablations, n=568) that place AI between compact viral genomes and simple eukaryotes. The DFE shape matches D. melanogaster (normalized KS=0.07) and S. cerevisiae (KS=0.09); the elevated beneficial fraction (13% vs. 1-6% in biology) quantifies the advantage of directed over blind search while preserving the distributional form. Architectural origination follows logistic dynamics (R^2=0.994) with punctuated equilibria and adaptive radiation into domain niches. Fourteen architectural traits were independently invented 3-5 times, paralleling biological convergences. These results demonstrate that the statistical structure of evolution is substrate-independent, determined by fitness landscape topology rather than the mechanism of selection.

As black-box models increasingly power high-stakes applications, a variety of data-driven explanation methods have been introduced. Meanwhile, machine learning models are constantly challenged by distributional shifts. A question naturally arises: Are data-driven explanations robust against out-of-distribution data? Our empirical results show that even though predict correctly, the model might still yield unreliable explanations under distributional shifts. How to develop robust explanations against out-of-distribution data? To address this problem, we propose an end-to-end model-agnostic learning framework Distributionally Robust Explanations (DRE). The key idea is, inspired by self-supervised learning, to fully utilizes the inter-distribution information to provide supervisory signals for the learning of explanations without human annotation. Can robust explanations benefit the model's generalization capability? We conduct extensive experiments on a wide range of tasks and data types, including classification and regression on image and scientific tabular data. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the model's performance in terms of explanation and prediction robustness against distributional shifts.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and texts. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of its success is still incomplete. One mystery is the paradox between memorization and generalization: In theory, the model is trained to be exactly the same as the empirical distribution of the finite samples, whereas in practice, the trained model can generate new samples or estimate the likelihood of unseen samples. Likewise, the overwhelming diversity of distribution learning models calls for a unified perspective on this subject. This paper provides a mathematical framework such that all the well-known models can be derived based on simple principles. To demonstrate its efficacy, we present a survey of our results on the approximation error, training error and generalization error of these models, which can all be established based on this framework. In particular, the aforementioned paradox is resolved by proving that these models enjoy implicit regularization during training, so that the generalization error at early-stopping avoids the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, we provide some new results on landscape analysis and the mode collapse phenomenon.

We explore the relations between the zeta distribution and algorithmic information theory via a new model of the transfer learning problem. The program distribution is approximated by a zeta distribution with parameter near 1. We model the training sequence as a stochastic process. We analyze the upper temporal bound for learning a training sequence and its entropy rates, assuming an oracle for the transfer learning problem. We argue from empirical evidence that power-law models are suitable for natural processes. Four sequence models are proposed. Random typing model is like no-free lunch where transfer learning does not work. Zeta process independently samples programs from the zeta distribution. A model of common sub-programs inspired by genetics uses a database of sub-programs. An evolutionary zeta process samples mutations from Zeta distribution. The analysis of stochastic processes inspired by evolution suggest that AI may be feasible in nature, countering no-free lunch sort of arguments.

Many clustering schemes are defined by optimizing an objective function defined on the partitions of the underlying set of a finite metric space. In this paper, we construct a framework for studying what happens when we instead impose various structural conditions on the clustering schemes, under the general heading of functoriality. Functoriality refers to the idea that one should be able to compare the results of clustering algorithms as one varies the data set, for example by adding points or by applying functions to it. We show that within this framework, one can prove a theorems analogous to one of J. Kleinberg, in which for example one obtains an existence and uniqueness theorem instead of a non-existence result. We obtain a full classification of all clustering schemes satisfying a condition we refer to as excisiveness. The classification can be changed by varying the notion of maps of finite metric spaces. The conditions occur naturally when one considers clustering as the statistical version of the geometric notion of connected components. By varying the degree of functoriality that one requires from the schemes it is possible to construct richer families of clustering schemes that exhibit sensitivity to density.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

We give a conceptual treatment of the notion of joints, marginals, and independence in the setting of categorical probability. This is achieved by endowing the usual probability monads (like the Giry monad) with a monoidal and an opmonoidal structure, mutually compatible (i.e. a bimonoidal structure). If the underlying monoidal category is cartesian monoidal, a bimonoidal structure is given uniquely by a commutative strength. However, if the underlying monoidal category is not cartesian monoidal, a strength is not enough to guarantee all the desired properties of joints and marginals. A bimonoidal structure is then the correct requirement for the more general case. We explain the theory and the operational interpretation, with the help of the graphical calculus for monoidal categories. We give a definition of stochastic independence based on the bimonoidal structure, compatible with the intuition and with other approaches in the literature for cartesian monoidal categories. We then show as an example that the Kantorovich monad on the category of complete metric spaces is a bimonoidal monad for a non-cartesian monoidal structure.

We propose to extract meaning representations from autoregressive language models by considering the distribution of all possible trajectories extending an input text. This strategy is prompt-free, does not require fine-tuning, and is applicable to any pre-trained autoregressive model. Moreover, unlike vector-based representations, distribution-based representations can also model asymmetric relations (e.g., direction of logical entailment, hypernym/hyponym relations) by using algebraic operations between likelihood functions. These ideas are grounded in distributional perspectives on semantics and are connected to standard constructions in automata theory, but to our knowledge they have not been applied to modern language models. We empirically show that the representations obtained from large models align well with human annotations, outperform other zero-shot and prompt-free methods on semantic similarity tasks, and can be used to solve more complex entailment and containment tasks that standard embeddings cannot handle. Finally, we extend our method to represent data from different modalities (e.g., image and text) using multimodal autoregressive models. Our code is available at: https://github.com/tianyu139/meaning-as-trajectories

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

According to the generalized Polya theorem, the Gaussian distribution on the real line is characterized by the property of equidistribution of a monomial and a linear form of independent identically distributed random variables. We give a complete description of a-adic solenoids for which an analog of this theorem is true. The proof of the main theorem is reduced to solving some functional equation in the class of continuous positive definite functions on the character group of an a-adic solenoid

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

We introduce the category of information structures, whose objects are suitable diagrams of measurable sets that encode the possible outputs of a given family of observables and their mutual relationships of refinement; they serve as mathematical models of contextuality in classical and quantum settings. Each information structure can be regarded as a ringed site with trivial topology; the structure ring is generated by the observables themselves and its multiplication corresponds to joint measurement. We extend Baudot and Bennequin's definition of information cohomology to this setting, as a derived functor in the category of modules over the structure ring, and show explicitly that the bar construction gives a projective resolution in that category, recovering in this way the cochain complexes previously considered in the literature. Finally, we study the particular case of a one-parameter family of coefficients made of functions of probability distributions. The only 1-cocycles are Shannon entropy or Tsallis alpha-entropy, depending on the value of the parameter.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

The theories of offline and online reinforcement learning, despite having evolved in parallel, have begun to show signs of the possibility for a unification, with algorithms and analysis techniques for one setting often having natural counterparts in the other. However, the notion of density ratio modeling, an emerging paradigm in offline RL, has been largely absent from online RL, perhaps for good reason: the very existence and boundedness of density ratios relies on access to an exploratory dataset with good coverage, but the core challenge in online RL is to collect such a dataset without having one to start. In this work we show -- perhaps surprisingly -- that density ratio-based algorithms have online counterparts. Assuming only the existence of an exploratory distribution with good coverage, a structural condition known as coverability (Xie et al., 2023), we give a new algorithm (GLOW) that uses density ratio realizability and value function realizability to perform sample-efficient online exploration. GLOW addresses unbounded density ratios via careful use of truncation, and combines this with optimism to guide exploration. GLOW is computationally inefficient; we complement it with a more efficient counterpart, HyGLOW, for the Hybrid RL setting (Song et al., 2022) wherein online RL is augmented with additional offline data. HyGLOW is derived as a special case of a more general meta-algorithm that provides a provable black-box reduction from hybrid RL to offline RL, which may be of independent interest.

We introduce a new approach to nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction in cases where both the predictor and the response are distributional data, modeled as members of a metric space. Our key step is to build universal kernels (cc-universal) on the metric spaces, which results in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for the predictor and response that are rich enough to characterize the conditional independence that determines sufficient dimension reduction. For univariate distributions, we construct the universal kernel using the Wasserstein distance, while for multivariate distributions, we resort to the sliced Wasserstein distance. The sliced Wasserstein distance ensures that the metric space possesses similar topological properties to the Wasserstein space while also offering significant computation benefits. Numerical results based on synthetic data show that our method outperforms possible competing methods. The method is also applied to several data sets, including fertility and mortality data and Calgary temperature data.

This paper revisits the problem of computing empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) efficiently on large, multivariate datasets. Computing an ECDF at one evaluation point requires O(N) operations on a dataset composed of N data points. Therefore, a direct evaluation of ECDFs at N evaluation points requires a quadratic O(N^2) operations, which is prohibitive for large-scale problems. Two fast and exact methods are proposed and compared. The first one is based on fast summation in lexicographical order, with a O(N{log}N) complexity and requires the evaluation points to lie on a regular grid. The second one is based on the divide-and-conquer principle, with a O(Nlog(N)^{(d-1){vee}1}) complexity and requires the evaluation points to coincide with the input points. The two fast algorithms are described and detailed in the general d-dimensional case, and numerical experiments validate their speed and accuracy. Secondly, the paper establishes a direct connection between cumulative distribution functions and kernel density estimation (KDE) for a large class of kernels. This connection paves the way for fast exact algorithms for multivariate kernel density estimation and kernel regression. Numerical tests with the Laplacian kernel validate the speed and accuracy of the proposed algorithms. A broad range of large-scale multivariate density estimation, cumulative distribution estimation, survival function estimation and regression problems can benefit from the proposed numerical methods.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

The traditional kernel density estimator of an unknown density is by construction completely nonparametric, in the sense that it has no preferences and will work reasonably well for all shapes. The present paper develops a class of semiparametric methods that are designed to work better than the kernel estimator in a broad nonparametric neighbourhood of a given parametric class of densities, for example the normal, while not losing much in precision when the true density is far from the parametric class. The idea is to multiply an initial parametric density estimate with a kernel type estimate of the necessary correction factor. This works well in cases where the correction factor function is less rough than the original density itself. Extensive comparisons with the kernel estimator are carried out, including exact analysis for the class of all normal mixtures. The new method, with a normal start, wins quite often, even in many cases where the true density is far from normal. Procedures for choosing the smoothing parameter of the estimator are also discussed. The new estimator should be particularly useful in higher dimensions, where the usual nonparametric methods have problems. The idea is also spelled out for nonparametric regression.

Tangles were originally introduced as a concept to formalize regions of high connectivity in graphs. In recent years, they have also been discovered as a link between structural graph theory and data science: when interpreting similarity in data sets as connectivity between points, finding clusters in the data essentially amounts to finding tangles in the underlying graphs. This paper further explores the potential of tangles in data sets as a means for a formal study of clusters. Real-world data often follow a normal distribution. Accounting for this, we develop a quantitative theory of tangles in data sets drawn from Gaussian mixtures. To this end, we equip the data with a graph structure that models similarity between the points and allows us to apply tangle theory to the data. We provide explicit conditions under which tangles associated with the marginal Gaussian distributions exist asymptotically almost surely. This can be considered as a sufficient formal criterion for the separabability of clusters in the data.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

In many real-world scenarios, obtaining fully observed samples is prohibitively expensive or even infeasible, while partial and noisy observations are comparatively easy to collect. In this work, we study distribution restoration with abundant noisy samples, assuming the corruption process is available as a black-box generator. We show that this task can be framed as a one-sided entropic optimal transport problem and solved via an EM-like algorithm. We further provide a test criterion to determine whether the true underlying distribution is recoverable under per-sample information loss, and show that in otherwise unrecoverable cases, a small number of clean samples can render the distribution largely recoverable. Building on these insights, we introduce SFBD-OMNI, a bridge model-based framework that maps corrupted sample distributions to the ground-truth distribution. Our method generalizes Stochastic Forward-Backward Deconvolution (SFBD; Lu et al., 2025) to handle arbitrary measurement models beyond Gaussian corruption. Experiments across benchmark datasets and diverse measurement settings demonstrate significant improvements in both qualitative and quantitative performance.

Many real-world problems require reasoning across multiple scales, demanding models which operate not on single data points, but on entire distributions. We introduce generative distribution embeddings (GDE), a framework that lifts autoencoders to the space of distributions. In GDEs, an encoder acts on sets of samples, and the decoder is replaced by a generator which aims to match the input distribution. This framework enables learning representations of distributions by coupling conditional generative models with encoder networks which satisfy a criterion we call distributional invariance. We show that GDEs learn predictive sufficient statistics embedded in the Wasserstein space, such that latent GDE distances approximately recover the W_2 distance, and latent interpolation approximately recovers optimal transport trajectories for Gaussian and Gaussian mixture distributions. We systematically benchmark GDEs against existing approaches on synthetic datasets, demonstrating consistently stronger performance. We then apply GDEs to six key problems in computational biology: learning representations of cell populations from lineage-tracing data (150K cells), predicting perturbation effects on single-cell transcriptomes (1M cells), predicting perturbation effects on cellular phenotypes (20M single-cell images), modeling tissue-specific DNA methylation patterns (253M sequences), designing synthetic yeast promoters (34M sequences), and spatiotemporal modeling of viral protein sequences (1M sequences).

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building a probabilistic graphical model Psi of the data, in the form of a random-access autoregressive sequence model. Psi supports a complete set of learned conditional distributions describing the dependence of any variables in the data on any other set of variables. In step 2, Structure extraction, we show how to extract underlying low-dimensional properties in the data, corresponding to a diverse set of meaningful "intermediate structures", in a zero-shot fashion via causal inference on Psi. Step 3, Integration, completes the cycle by converting these structures into new token types that are then continually mixed back into the training diet as conditioning signals and prediction targets. Each such cycle augments the capabilities of Psi, both allowing it to model the underlying data better, and creating new control handles -- akin to an LLM-like universal prompting language. We train an instance of Psi on 1.4 trillion tokens of internet video data; we use it to perform a variety of useful video prediction and understanding inferences; we extract state-of-the-art optical flow, self-supervised depth and object segmentation; and we use these structures to support a full cycle of predictive improvements.

No free lunch theorems for supervised learning state that no learner can solve all problems or that all learners achieve exactly the same accuracy on average over a uniform distribution on learning problems. Accordingly, these theorems are often referenced in support of the notion that individual problems require specially tailored inductive biases. While virtually all uniformly sampled datasets have high complexity, real-world problems disproportionately generate low-complexity data, and we argue that neural network models share this same preference, formalized using Kolmogorov complexity. Notably, we show that architectures designed for a particular domain, such as computer vision, can compress datasets on a variety of seemingly unrelated domains. Our experiments show that pre-trained and even randomly initialized language models prefer to generate low-complexity sequences. Whereas no free lunch theorems seemingly indicate that individual problems require specialized learners, we explain how tasks that often require human intervention such as picking an appropriately sized model when labeled data is scarce or plentiful can be automated into a single learning algorithm. These observations justify the trend in deep learning of unifying seemingly disparate problems with an increasingly small set of machine learning models.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models, primarily due to their ability to enable parallel decoding. Despite this advantage, most existing DLMs rely on a fixed generation length specified prior to decoding, which restricts their flexibility in real-world applications. While a few recent works attempt to support flexible-length generation, they typically suffer from notable limitations: some require costly retraining to accommodate variable-length outputs, while others depend solely on local confidence signals during decoding. Such local criteria fail to capture the evolving structure of the sequence, often resulting in suboptimal generation quality. In this paper, we propose a training-free, Bayesian structured decoding framework that formulates flexible-length generation as a dynamic structural inference problem. Our approach formulates flexible-length generation as a dynamic structural inference problem, jointly computing the expansion length, the block boundaries, and the decoding schedule. At each window expansion step, the method integrates local uncertainty with structural signals via a unified mechanism that supports dynamic structured generation, including both flexible block expansion and block organization, while maintaining coherence. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our approach significantly improves generation quality and flexibility over existing fixed-length and flexible-length baselines. These results highlight the advantage of Bayesian structured decoding for diffusion language model, providing a principled and efficient solution for structured text generation.

Given an unconditional diffusion model and a predictor for a target property of interest (e.g., a classifier), the goal of training-free guidance is to generate samples with desirable target properties without additional training. Existing methods, though effective in various individual applications, often lack theoretical grounding and rigorous testing on extensive benchmarks. As a result, they could even fail on simple tasks, and applying them to a new problem becomes unavoidably difficult. This paper introduces a novel algorithmic framework encompassing existing methods as special cases, unifying the study of training-free guidance into the analysis of an algorithm-agnostic design space. Via theoretical and empirical investigation, we propose an efficient and effective hyper-parameter searching strategy that can be readily applied to any downstream task. We systematically benchmark across 7 diffusion models on 16 tasks with 40 targets, and improve performance by 8.5% on average. Our framework and benchmark offer a solid foundation for conditional generation in a training-free manner.

Data used for analytics and machine learning often take the form of tables with categorical entries. We introduce a family of lossless compression algorithms for such data that proceed in four steps: (i) Estimate latent variables associated to rows and columns; (ii) Partition the table in blocks according to the row/column latents; (iii) Apply a sequential (e.g. Lempel-Ziv) coder to each of the blocks; (iv) Append a compressed encoding of the latents. We evaluate it on several benchmark datasets, and study optimal compression in a probabilistic model for that tabular data, whereby latent values are independent and table entries are conditionally independent given the latent values. We prove that the model has a well defined entropy rate and satisfies an asymptotic equipartition property. We also prove that classical compression schemes such as Lempel-Ziv and finite-state encoders do not achieve this rate. On the other hand, the latent estimation strategy outlined above achieves the optimal rate.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are powerful machine learning models and have succeeded in various artificial intelligence tasks. Although various architectures and modules for the DNNs have been proposed, selecting and designing the appropriate network structure for a target problem is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a method to simultaneously optimize the network structure and weight parameters during neural network training. We consider a probability distribution that generates network structures, and optimize the parameters of the distribution instead of directly optimizing the network structure. The proposed method can apply to the various network structure optimization problems under the same framework. We apply the proposed method to several structure optimization problems such as selection of layers, selection of unit types, and selection of connections using the MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed method can find the appropriate and competitive network structures.

Generative models inspired by dynamical transport of measure -- such as flows and diffusions -- construct a continuous-time map between two probability densities. Conventionally, one of these is the target density, only accessible through samples, while the other is taken as a simple base density that is data-agnostic. In this work, using the framework of stochastic interpolants, we formalize how to couple the base and the target densities. This enables us to incorporate information about class labels or continuous embeddings to construct dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models. We show that these transport maps can be learned by solving a simple square loss regression problem analogous to the standard independent setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of constructing dependent couplings in practice through experiments in super-resolution and in-painting.

Most visual generative models compress images into a latent space before applying diffusion or autoregressive modelling. Yet, existing approaches such as VAEs and foundation model aligned encoders implicitly constrain the latent space without explicitly shaping its distribution, making it unclear which types of distributions are optimal for modeling. We introduce Distribution-Matching VAE (DMVAE), which explicitly aligns the encoder's latent distribution with an arbitrary reference distribution via a distribution matching constraint. This generalizes beyond the Gaussian prior of conventional VAEs, enabling alignment with distributions derived from self-supervised features, diffusion noise, or other prior distributions. With DMVAE, we can systematically investigate which latent distributions are more conducive to modeling, and we find that SSL-derived distributions provide an excellent balance between reconstruction fidelity and modeling efficiency, reaching gFID equals 3.2 on ImageNet with only 64 training epochs. Our results suggest that choosing a suitable latent distribution structure (achieved via distribution-level alignment), rather than relying on fixed priors, is key to bridging the gap between easy-to-model latents and high-fidelity image synthesis. Code is avaliable at https://github.com/sen-ye/dmvae.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

There has been a lot of recent interest in designing neural network models to estimate a distribution from a set of examples. We introduce a simple modification for autoencoder neural networks that yields powerful generative models. Our method masks the autoencoder's parameters to respect autoregressive constraints: each input is reconstructed only from previous inputs in a given ordering. Constrained this way, the autoencoder outputs can be interpreted as a set of conditional probabilities, and their product, the full joint probability. We can also train a single network that can decompose the joint probability in multiple different orderings. Our simple framework can be applied to multiple architectures, including deep ones. Vectorized implementations, such as on GPUs, are simple and fast. Experiments demonstrate that this approach is competitive with state-of-the-art tractable distribution estimators. At test time, the method is significantly faster and scales better than other autoregressive estimators.

Unsupervised hashing methods typically aim to preserve the similarity between data points in a feature space by mapping them to binary hash codes. However, these methods often overlook the fact that the similarity between data points in the continuous feature space may not be preserved in the discrete hash code space, due to the limited similarity range of hash codes. The similarity range is bounded by the code length and can lead to a problem known as similarity collapse. That is, the positive and negative pairs of data points become less distinguishable from each other in the hash space. To alleviate this problem, in this paper a novel Similarity Distribution Calibration (SDC) method is introduced. SDC aligns the hash code similarity distribution towards a calibration distribution (e.g., beta distribution) with sufficient spread across the entire similarity range, thus alleviating the similarity collapse problem. Extensive experiments show that our SDC outperforms significantly the state-of-the-art alternatives on coarse category-level and instance-level image retrieval. Code is available at https://github.com/kamwoh/sdc.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: We formulate the structure learning problem as a purely continuous optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting problem can be efficiently solved by standard numerical algorithms, which also makes implementation effortless. The proposed method outperforms existing ones, without imposing any structural assumptions on the graph such as bounded treewidth or in-degree. Code implementing the proposed algorithm is open-source and publicly available at https://github.com/xunzheng/notears.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

We explore a generative machine learning-based approach for estimating multi-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) in a target sample using a statistically independent but related control sample - a common challenge in particle physics data analysis. The generative model must accurately reproduce individual observable distributions while preserving the correlations between them, based on the input multidimensional distribution from the control sample. Here we present a conditional normalizing flow model (CNF) based on a chain of bijectors which learns to transform unpaired simulation events to data events. We assess the performance of the CNF model in the context of LHC Higgs to diphoton analysis, where we use the CNF model to convert a Monte Carlo diphoton sample to one that models data. We show that the CNF model can accurately model complex data distributions and correlations. We also leverage the recently popularized Modified Differential Multiplier Method (MDMM) to improve the convergence of our model and assign physical meaning to usually arbitrary loss-function parameters.

Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely used way of comparing probability distributions by their spread. Furthermore, we lay foundation for the theory of comparing statistical experiments within Markov categories by stating and proving the classical Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem. Our version not only offers new insight into the proof, but its abstract nature also makes the result more general, automatically specializing to the standard Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem in measure-theoretic probability as well as a Bayesian version that involves prior-dependent garbling. Along the way, we define and characterize representable Markov categories, within which one can talk about Markov kernels to or from spaces of distributions. We do so by exploring the relation between Markov categories and Kleisli categories of probability monads.

In this paper, we study the infinite-depth limit of finite-width residual neural networks with random Gaussian weights. With proper scaling, we show that by fixing the width and taking the depth to infinity, the pre-activations converge in distribution to a zero-drift diffusion process. Unlike the infinite-width limit where the pre-activation converge weakly to a Gaussian random variable, we show that the infinite-depth limit yields different distributions depending on the choice of the activation function. We document two cases where these distributions have closed-form (different) expressions. We further show an intriguing change of regime phenomenon of the post-activation norms when the width increases from 3 to 4. Lastly, we study the sequential limit infinite-depth-then-infinite-width and compare it with the more commonly studied infinite-width-then-infinite-depth limit.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

State density distribution, in contrast to worst-case reachability, can be leveraged for safety-related problems to better quantify the likelihood of the risk for potentially hazardous situations. In this work, we propose a data-driven method to compute the density distribution of reachable states for nonlinear and even black-box systems. Our semi-supervised approach learns system dynamics and the state density jointly from trajectory data, guided by the fact that the state density evolution follows the Liouville partial differential equation. With the help of neural network reachability tools, our approach can estimate the set of all possible future states as well as their density. Moreover, we could perform online safety verification with probability ranges for unsafe behaviors to occur. We use an extensive set of experiments to show that our learned solution can produce a much more accurate estimate on density distribution, and can quantify risks less conservatively and flexibly comparing with worst-case analysis.

Lagrangian turbulence lies at the core of numerous applied and fundamental problems related to the physics of dispersion and mixing in engineering, bio-fluids, atmosphere, oceans, and astrophysics. Despite exceptional theoretical, numerical, and experimental efforts conducted over the past thirty years, no existing models are capable of faithfully reproducing statistical and topological properties exhibited by particle trajectories in turbulence. We propose a machine learning approach, based on a state-of-the-art diffusion model, to generate single-particle trajectories in three-dimensional turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, thereby bypassing the need for direct numerical simulations or experiments to obtain reliable Lagrangian data. Our model demonstrates the ability to reproduce most statistical benchmarks across time scales, including the fat-tail distribution for velocity increments, the anomalous power law, and the increased intermittency around the dissipative scale. Slight deviations are observed below the dissipative scale, particularly in the acceleration and flatness statistics. Surprisingly, the model exhibits strong generalizability for extreme events, producing events of higher intensity and rarity that still match the realistic statistics. This paves the way for producing synthetic high-quality datasets for pre-training various downstream applications of Lagrangian turbulence.

We present InterHandGen, a novel framework that learns the generative prior of two-hand interaction. Sampling from our model yields plausible and diverse two-hand shapes in close interaction with or without an object. Our prior can be incorporated into any optimization or learning methods to reduce ambiguity in an ill-posed setup. Our key observation is that directly modeling the joint distribution of multiple instances imposes high learning complexity due to its combinatorial nature. Thus, we propose to decompose the modeling of joint distribution into the modeling of factored unconditional and conditional single instance distribution. In particular, we introduce a diffusion model that learns the single-hand distribution unconditional and conditional to another hand via conditioning dropout. For sampling, we combine anti-penetration and classifier-free guidance to enable plausible generation. Furthermore, we establish the rigorous evaluation protocol of two-hand synthesis, where our method significantly outperforms baseline generative models in terms of plausibility and diversity. We also demonstrate that our diffusion prior can boost the performance of two-hand reconstruction from monocular in-the-wild images, achieving new state-of-the-art accuracy.

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a novel hierarchical formulation of normalizing flows to enable efficient fitting of flexible conditional distributions without overfitting and show how the normalizing flow formulation can be efficiently adapted to the censored setting. We experimentally validate the proposed approach on a synthetic dataset as well as four open medical datasets and an example of a common financial problem.

Bayesian deep learning counts on the quality of posterior distribution estimation. However, the posterior of deep neural networks is highly multi-modal in nature, with local modes exhibiting varying generalization performance. Given a practical budget, targeting at the original posterior can lead to suboptimal performance, as some samples may become trapped in "bad" modes and suffer from overfitting. Leveraging the observation that "good" modes with low generalization error often reside in flat basins of the energy landscape, we propose to bias sampling on the posterior toward these flat regions. Specifically, we introduce an auxiliary guiding variable, the stationary distribution of which resembles a smoothed posterior free from sharp modes, to lead the MCMC sampler to flat basins. By integrating this guiding variable with the model parameter, we create a simple joint distribution that enables efficient sampling with minimal computational overhead. We prove the convergence of our method and further show that it converges faster than several existing flatness-aware methods in the strongly convex setting. Empirical results demonstrate that our method can successfully sample from flat basins of the posterior, and outperforms all compared baselines on multiple benchmarks including classification, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

We study in detail a one-dimensional lattice model of a continuum, conserved field (mass) that is transferred deterministically between neighbouring random sites. The model falls in a wider class of lattice models capturing the joint effect of random advection and diffusion and encompassing as specific cases, some models studied in the literature, like the Kang-Redner, Kipnis-Marchioro-Presutti, Takayasu-Taguchi, etc. The motivation for our setup comes from a straightforward interpretation as advection of particles in one-dimensional turbulence, but it is also related to a problem of synchronization of dynamical systems driven by common noise. For finite lattices, we study both the coalescence of an initially spread field (interpreted as roughening), and the statistical steady-state properties. We distinguish two main size-dependent regimes, depending on the strength of the diffusion term and on the lattice size. Using numerical simulations and mean-field approach, we study the statistics of the field. For weak diffusion, we unveil a characteristic hierarchical structure of the field. We also connect the model and the iterated function systems concept.

Zipf's law appears in many application areas but does not have a closed form expression, which may make its use cumbersome. Since it coincides with the truncated version of the Zeta distribution, in this paper we propose three approximate closed form expressions for the truncated Zeta distribution, which may be employed for Zipf's law as well. The three approximations are based on the replacement of the sum occurring in Zipf's law with an integral, and are named respectively the integral approximation, the average integral approximation, and the trapezoidal approximation. While the first one is shown to be of little use, the trapezoidal approximation exhibits an error which is typically lower than 1\%, but is as low as 0.1\% for the range of values of the Zipf parameter below 1.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

We formalize a transfinite Phi process that treats all possibility embeddings as operators on structured state spaces including complete lattices, Banach and Hilbert spaces, and orthomodular lattices. We prove a determinization lemma showing that lifting to sets or distributions yields a deterministic global dynamic, an ordinal stabilization theorem sending operator transforms to the fixed subspace by stage omega under normal spectral contraction, and a product of Riesz projections theorem for commuting layers. We establish a compositionality law for lifted maps, show closure of Phi packings, and present a quantitative application to sensory depletion that models tissue removal as a projection and derives strict decreases in the attainable fixed point under minimal monotonicity and positivity assumptions. We also state measurable conditions for probabilistic lifts, give explicit non normal and non commuting counterexamples, and provide finite dimensional and stochastic witnesses together with per theorem scope tables and a small reproducible code appendix.

Context. Low-mass bodies, such as comets, asteroids, planetesimals, and free-floating planets, are continuously injected into the intra-cluster environment after expulsion from their host planetary systems. These can be modeled as massless particles (MLPs, hereafter). The dynamics of large populations of MLPs, however, has yet received little attention in literature. Aims. We investigate the dynamical evolution of MLP populations in star clusters, and characterize their kinematics and ejection rates. Methods. We present NBODY6++GPU-MASSLESS, a modified version of the N-body simulation code NBODY6++GPU, that allows fast integration of star clusters that contain large numbers of massless particles (MLPs). NBODY6++GPU-MASSLESS contains routines specifically directed at the dynamical evolution of low-mass bodies, such as planets. Results. Unlike stars, MLPs do not participate in the mass segregation process. Instead, MLPs mostly follow the gravitational potential of the star cluster, which gradually decreases over time due to stellar ejections and stellar evolution. The dynamical evolution of MLPs is primarily affected by the evolution of the core of the star cluster. This is most apparent in the outer regions for clusters with higher initial densities. High escape rates of MLPs are observed before the core-collapse, after which escape rates remain stable. Denser star clusters undergo a more intense core collapse, but this does not impact the dynamical evolution of MLPs. The speeds of escaping stars are similar to those of escaping MLPs, when disregarding the high-velocity ejections of neutron stars during the first 50 Myr.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

Denoising and score estimation have long been known to be linked via the classical Tweedie's formula. In this work, we first extend the latter to a wider range of distributions often called "energy models" and denoted elliptical distributions in this work. Next, we examine an alternative view: we consider the denoising posterior P(X|Y) as the optimizer of the energy score (a scoring rule) and derive a fundamental identity that connects the (path-) derivative of a (possibly) non-Euclidean energy score to the score of the noisy marginal. This identity can be seen as an analog of Tweedie's identity for the energy score, and allows for several interesting applications; for example, score estimation, noise distribution parameter estimation, as well as using energy score models in the context of "traditional" diffusion model samplers with a wider array of noising distributions.

Unsupervised learning of probabilistic models is a central yet challenging problem in machine learning. Specifically, designing models with tractable learning, sampling, inference and evaluation is crucial in solving this task. We extend the space of such models using real-valued non-volume preserving (real NVP) transformations, a set of powerful invertible and learnable transformations, resulting in an unsupervised learning algorithm with exact log-likelihood computation, exact sampling, exact inference of latent variables, and an interpretable latent space. We demonstrate its ability to model natural images on four datasets through sampling, log-likelihood evaluation and latent variable manipulations.

Categorical variables are a natural choice for representing discrete structure in the world. However, stochastic neural networks rarely use categorical latent variables due to the inability to backpropagate through samples. In this work, we present an efficient gradient estimator that replaces the non-differentiable sample from a categorical distribution with a differentiable sample from a novel Gumbel-Softmax distribution. This distribution has the essential property that it can be smoothly annealed into a categorical distribution. We show that our Gumbel-Softmax estimator outperforms state-of-the-art gradient estimators on structured output prediction and unsupervised generative modeling tasks with categorical latent variables, and enables large speedups on semi-supervised classification.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Inference-time steering enables pretrained diffusion/flow models to be adapted to new tasks without retraining. A widely used approach is the ratio-of-densities method, which defines a time-indexed target path by reweighting probability-density trajectories from multiple models with positive, or in some cases, negative exponents. This construction, however, harbors a critical and previously unformalized failure mode: Marginal Path Collapse, where intermediate densities become non-normalizable even though endpoints remain valid. Collapse arises systematically when composing heterogeneous models trained on different noise schedules or datasets, including a common setting in molecular design where de-novo, conformer, and pocket-conditioned models must be combined for tasks such as flexible-pose scaffold decoration. We provide a novel and complete solution for the problem. First, we derive a simple path existence criterion that predicts exactly when collapse occurs from noise schedules and exponents alone. Second, we introduce Adaptive path Correction with Exponents (ACE), which extends Feynman-Kac steering to time-varying exponents and guarantees a valid probability path. On a synthetic 2D benchmark and on flexible-pose scaffold decoration, ACE eliminates collapse and enables high-guidance compositional generation, improving distributional and docking metrics over constant-exponent baselines and even specialized task-specific scaffold decoration models. Our work turns ratio-of-densities steering with heterogeneous experts from an unstable heuristic into a reliable tool for controllable generation.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Simulation-based inference with conditional neural density estimators is a powerful approach to solving inverse problems in science. However, these methods typically treat the underlying forward model as a black box, with no way to exploit geometric properties such as equivariances. Equivariances are common in scientific models, however integrating them directly into expressive inference networks (such as normalizing flows) is not straightforward. We here describe an alternative method to incorporate equivariances under joint transformations of parameters and data. Our method -- called group equivariant neural posterior estimation (GNPE) -- is based on self-consistently standardizing the "pose" of the data while estimating the posterior over parameters. It is architecture-independent, and applies both to exact and approximate equivariances. As a real-world application, we use GNPE for amortized inference of astrophysical binary black hole systems from gravitational-wave observations. We show that GNPE achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while reducing inference times by three orders of magnitude.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

The Beta kernel estimator offers a theoretically superior alternative to the Gaussian kernel for unit interval data, eliminating boundary bias without requiring reflection or transformation. However, its adoption remains limited by the lack of a reliable bandwidth selector; practitioners currently rely on iterative optimization methods that are computationally expensive and prone to instability. We derive the ``Beta Reference Rule,'' a fast, closed-form bandwidth selector based on the unweighted Asymptotic Mean Integrated Squared Error (AMISE) of a beta reference distribution. To address boundary integrability issues, we introduce a principled heuristic for U-shaped and J-shaped distributions. By employing a method-of-moments approximation, we reduce the bandwidth selection complexity from iterative optimization to O(1). Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our rule matches the accuracy of numerical optimization while delivering a speedup of over 35,000 times. Real-world validation on socioeconomic data shows that it avoids the ``vanishing boundary'' and ``shoulder'' artifacts common to Gaussian-based methods. We provide a comprehensive, open-source Python package to facilitate the immediate adoption of the Beta kernel as a drop-in replacement for standard density estimation tools.

The ability to computationally generate novel yet physically foldable protein structures could lead to new biological discoveries and new treatments targeting yet incurable diseases. Despite recent advances in protein structure prediction, directly generating diverse, novel protein structures from neural networks remains difficult. In this work, we present a new diffusion-based generative model that designs protein backbone structures via a procedure that mirrors the native folding process. We describe protein backbone structure as a series of consecutive angles capturing the relative orientation of the constituent amino acid residues, and generate new structures by denoising from a random, unfolded state towards a stable folded structure. Not only does this mirror how proteins biologically twist into energetically favorable conformations, the inherent shift and rotational invariance of this representation crucially alleviates the need for complex equivariant networks. We train a denoising diffusion probabilistic model with a simple transformer backbone and demonstrate that our resulting model unconditionally generates highly realistic protein structures with complexity and structural patterns akin to those of naturally-occurring proteins. As a useful resource, we release the first open-source codebase and trained models for protein structure diffusion.

The equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability is a fundamental phenomenon in learning theory. With variants ranging from classical settings like PAC learning and regression to recent trends such as adversarially robust learning, it's surprising that we still lack a unified theory; traditional proofs of the equivalence tend to be disparate, and rely on strong model-specific assumptions like uniform convergence and sample compression. In this work, we give the first model-independent framework explaining the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability: a three-line blackbox reduction that simplifies, unifies, and extends our understanding across a wide variety of settings. This includes models with no known characterization of learnability such as learning with arbitrary distributional assumptions and more general loss functions, as well as a host of other popular settings such as robust learning, partial learning, fair learning, and the statistical query model. More generally, we argue that the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learning is actually a special case of a broader phenomenon we call property generalization: any desirable property of a learning algorithm (e.g. noise tolerance, privacy, stability) that can be satisfied over finite hypothesis classes extends (possibly in some variation) to any learnable hypothesis class.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

Normalizing flows are a promising tool for modeling probability distributions in physical systems. While state-of-the-art flows accurately approximate distributions and energies, applications in physics additionally require smooth energies to compute forces and higher-order derivatives. Furthermore, such densities are often defined on non-trivial topologies. A recent example are Boltzmann Generators for generating 3D-structures of peptides and small proteins. These generative models leverage the space of internal coordinates (dihedrals, angles, and bonds), which is a product of hypertori and compact intervals. In this work, we introduce a class of smooth mixture transformations working on both compact intervals and hypertori. Mixture transformations employ root-finding methods to invert them in practice, which has so far prevented bi-directional flow training. To this end, we show that parameter gradients and forces of such inverses can be computed from forward evaluations via the inverse function theorem. We demonstrate two advantages of such smooth flows: they allow training by force matching to simulation data and can be used as potentials in molecular dynamics simulations.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

We investigate the theoretical foundations of classifier-free guidance (CFG). CFG is the dominant method of conditional sampling for text-to-image diffusion models, yet unlike other aspects of diffusion, it remains on shaky theoretical footing. In this paper, we disprove common misconceptions, by showing that CFG interacts differently with DDPM (Ho et al., 2020) and DDIM (Song et al., 2021), and neither sampler with CFG generates the gamma-powered distribution p(x|c)^gamma p(x)^{1-gamma}. Then, we clarify the behavior of CFG by showing that it is a kind of predictor-corrector method (Song et al., 2020) that alternates between denoising and sharpening, which we call predictor-corrector guidance (PCG). We prove that in the SDE limit, CFG is actually equivalent to combining a DDIM predictor for the conditional distribution together with a Langevin dynamics corrector for a gamma-powered distribution (with a carefully chosen gamma). Our work thus provides a lens to theoretically understand CFG by embedding it in a broader design space of principled sampling methods.

Many recent reasoning gains in large language models can be explained as distribution sharpening: biasing generation toward high-likelihood trajectories already supported by the pretrained model, rather than modifying its weights. A natural formalization is the sequence-level power distribution π_α(ymid x)propto p_θ(ymid x)^α (α>1), which concentrates mass on whole sequences instead of adjusting token-level temperature. Prior work shows that Metropolis--Hastings (MH) sampling from this distribution recovers strong reasoning performance, but at order-of-magnitude inference slowdowns. We introduce Power-SMC, a training-free Sequential Monte Carlo scheme that targets the same objective while remaining close to standard decoding latency. Power-SMC advances a small particle set in parallel, corrects importance weights token-by-token, and resamples when necessary, all within a single GPU-friendly batched decode. We prove that temperature τ=1/α is the unique prefix-only proposal minimizing incremental weight variance, interpret residual instability via prefix-conditioned Rényi entropies, and introduce an exponent-bridging schedule that improves particle stability without altering the target. On MATH500, Power-SMC matches or exceeds MH power sampling while reducing latency from 16--28times to 1.4--3.3times over baseline decoding. The code is available at https://github.com/ArminAzizi98/Power-SMC.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Observed dwarf galaxies tend to have linearly rising rotation curves, which indicate flat density cores in their centers. Furthermore, disk galaxies show a wide range of rotation curves shapes. High resolution simulations of cold collisionless dark matter do not reproduce flat central profiles, or the observed diversity of rotation curve shapes; even hydrodynamic simulations incorporating baryonic feedback cannot do that robustly. However, numerical simulations are not the only way to make predictions about density profiles of equilibrium dark matter halos. A theoretical model based on statistical mechanics shows that maximum entropy solutions for cold collisionless self-gravitating dark matter halos can have a range of inner density profiles, including flat density cores. These theoretical profiles, called DARKexp, have only one shape parameter, and are able to fit the observed rotation curves of galaxies with last measured velocities in the range ~20-200 km/s. Here we present fits to 96 SPARC catalog galaxies, and the Milky Way. DARKexp also provides good fits to the projected stellar density distributions of ultrafaint dwarfs that show cores, suggesting that the dark matter halo hosts could have flat density cores. Thus, DARKexp appears to be able to address the core-cusp problem and the diversity of rotation curves with cold collisionless dark matter alone, without baryonic feedback.

We systematically study antithetic initial noise in diffusion models, discovering that pairing each noise sample with its negation consistently produces strong negative correlation. This universal phenomenon holds across datasets, model architectures, conditional and unconditional sampling, and even other generative models such as VAEs and Normalizing Flows. To explain it, we combine experiments and theory and propose a symmetry conjecture that the learned score function is approximately affine antisymmetric (odd symmetry up to a constant shift), supported by empirical evidence. This negative correlation leads to substantially more reliable uncertainty quantification with up to 90% narrower confidence intervals. We demonstrate these gains on tasks including estimating pixel-wise statistics and evaluating diffusion inverse solvers. We also provide extensions with randomized quasi-Monte Carlo noise designs for uncertainty quantification, and explore additional applications of the antithetic noise design to improve image editing and generation diversity. Our framework is training-free, model-agnostic, and adds no runtime overhead. Code is available at https://github.com/jjia131/Antithetic-Noise-in-Diffusion-Models-page.

We develop Markov categories as a framework for synthetic probability and statistics, following work of Golubtsov as well as Cho and Jacobs. This means that we treat the following concepts in purely abstract categorical terms: conditioning and disintegration; various versions of conditional independence and its standard properties; conditional products; almost surely; sufficient statistics; versions of theorems on sufficient statistics due to Fisher--Neyman, Basu, and Bahadur. Besides the conceptual clarity offered by our categorical setup, its main advantage is that it provides a uniform treatment of various types of probability theory, including discrete probability theory, measure-theoretic probability with general measurable spaces, Gaussian probability, stochastic processes of either of these kinds, and many others.