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Mar 18

Understanding accountability in algorithmic supply chains

Academic and policy proposals on algorithmic accountability often seek to understand algorithmic systems in their socio-technical context, recognising that they are produced by 'many hands'. Increasingly, however, algorithmic systems are also produced, deployed, and used within a supply chain comprising multiple actors tied together by flows of data between them. In such cases, it is the working together of an algorithmic supply chain of different actors who contribute to the production, deployment, use, and functionality that drives systems and produces particular outcomes. We argue that algorithmic accountability discussions must consider supply chains and the difficult implications they raise for the governance and accountability of algorithmic systems. In doing so, we explore algorithmic supply chains, locating them in their broader technical and political economic context and identifying some key features that should be understood in future work on algorithmic governance and accountability (particularly regarding general purpose AI services). To highlight ways forward and areas warranting attention, we further discuss some implications raised by supply chains: challenges for allocating accountability stemming from distributed responsibility for systems between actors, limited visibility due to the accountability horizon, service models of use and liability, and cross-border supply chains and regulatory arbitrage

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 28, 2023

TAMPAR: Visual Tampering Detection for Parcel Logistics in Postal Supply Chains

Due to the steadily rising amount of valuable goods in supply chains, tampering detection for parcels is becoming increasingly important. In this work, we focus on the use-case last-mile delivery, where only a single RGB image is taken and compared against a reference from an existing database to detect potential appearance changes that indicate tampering. We propose a tampering detection pipeline that utilizes keypoint detection to identify the eight corner points of a parcel. This permits applying a perspective transformation to create normalized fronto-parallel views for each visible parcel side surface. These viewpoint-invariant parcel side surface representations facilitate the identification of signs of tampering on parcels within the supply chain, since they reduce the problem to parcel side surface matching with pair-wise appearance change detection. Experiments with multiple classical and deep learning-based change detection approaches are performed on our newly collected TAMpering detection dataset for PARcels, called TAMPAR. We evaluate keypoint and change detection separately, as well as in a unified system for tampering detection. Our evaluation shows promising results for keypoint (Keypoint AP 75.76) and tampering detection (81% accuracy, F1-Score 0.83) on real images. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis for tampering types, lens distortion and viewing angles is presented. Code and dataset are available at https://a-nau.github.io/tampar.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 6, 2023

Cross-LLM Generalization of Behavioral Backdoor Detection in AI Agent Supply Chains

As AI agents become integral to enterprise workflows, their reliance on shared tool libraries and pre-trained components creates significant supply chain vulnerabilities. While previous work has demonstrated behavioral backdoor detection within individual LLM architectures, the critical question of cross-LLM generalization remains unexplored, a gap with serious implications for organizations deploying multiple AI systems. We present the first systematic study of cross-LLM behavioral backdoor detection, evaluating generalization across six production LLMs (GPT-5.1, Claude Sonnet 4.5, Grok 4.1, Llama 4 Maverick, GPT-OSS 120B, and DeepSeek Chat V3.1). Through 1,198 execution traces and 36 cross-model experiments, we quantify a critical finding: single-model detectors achieve 92.7% accuracy within their training distribution but only 49.2% across different LLMs, a 43.4 percentage point generalization gap equivalent to random guessing. Our analysis reveals that this gap stems from model-specific behavioral signatures, particularly in temporal features (coefficient of variation > 0.8), while structural features remain stable across architectures. We show that model-aware detection incorporating model identity as an additional feature achieves 90.6% accuracy universally across all evaluated models. We release our multi-LLM trace dataset and detection framework to enable reproducible research.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 24, 2025

DySec: A Machine Learning-based Dynamic Analysis for Detecting Malicious Packages in PyPI Ecosystem

Malicious Python packages make software supply chains vulnerable by exploiting trust in open-source repositories like Python Package Index (PyPI). Lack of real-time behavioral monitoring makes metadata inspection and static code analysis inadequate against advanced attack strategies such as typosquatting, covert remote access activation, and dynamic payload generation. To address these challenges, we introduce DySec, a machine learning (ML)-based dynamic analysis framework for PyPI that uses eBPF kernel and user-level probes to monitor behaviors during package installation. By capturing 36 real-time features-including system calls, network traffic, resource usage, directory access, and installation patterns-DySec detects threats like typosquatting, covert remote access activation, dynamic payload generation, and multiphase attack malware. We developed a comprehensive dataset of 14,271 Python packages, including 7,127 malicious sample traces, by executing them in a controlled isolated environment. Experimental results demonstrate that DySec achieves a 95.99\% detection accuracy with a latency of <0.5s, reducing false negatives by 78.65\% compared to static analysis and 82.24\% compared to metadata analysis. During the evaluation, DySec flagged 11 packages that PyPI classified as benign. A manual analysis, including installation behavior inspection, confirmed six of them as malicious. These findings were reported to PyPI maintainers, resulting in the removal of four packages. DySec bridges the gap between reactive traditional methods and proactive, scalable threat mitigation in open-source ecosystems by uniquely detecting malicious install-time behaviors.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 28, 2025

Linking Representations with Multimodal Contrastive Learning

Many applications require grouping instances contained in diverse document datasets into classes. Most widely used methods do not employ deep learning and do not exploit the inherently multimodal nature of documents. Notably, record linkage is typically conceptualized as a string-matching problem. This study develops CLIPPINGS, (Contrastively Linking Pooled Pre-trained Embeddings), a multimodal framework for record linkage. CLIPPINGS employs end-to-end training of symmetric vision and language bi-encoders, aligned through contrastive language-image pre-training, to learn a metric space where the pooled image-text representation for a given instance is close to representations in the same class and distant from representations in different classes. At inference time, instances can be linked by retrieving their nearest neighbor from an offline exemplar embedding index or by clustering their representations. The study examines two challenging applications: constructing comprehensive supply chains for mid-20th century Japan through linking firm level financial records - with each firm name represented by its crop in the document image and the corresponding OCR - and detecting which image-caption pairs in a massive corpus of historical U.S. newspapers came from the same underlying photo wire source. CLIPPINGS outperforms widely used string matching methods by a wide margin and also outperforms unimodal methods. Moreover, a purely self-supervised model trained on only image-OCR pairs also outperforms popular string-matching methods without requiring any labels.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 6, 2023

ConfuGuard: Using Metadata to Detect Active and Stealthy Package Confusion Attacks Accurately and at Scale

Package confusion attacks such as typosquatting threaten software supply chains. Attackers make packages with names that syntactically or semantically resemble legitimate ones, tricking engineers into installing malware. While prior work has developed defenses against package confusions in some software package registries, notably NPM, PyPI, and RubyGems, gaps remain: high false-positive rates; generalization to more software package ecosystems; and insights from real-world deployment. In this work, we introduce ConfuGuard, a solution designed to address the challenges posed by package confusion threats. We begin by presenting the first empirical analysis of benign signals derived from prior package confusion data, uncovering their threat patterns, engineering practices, and measurable attributes. We observed that 13.3% of real package confusion attacks are initially stealthy, so we take that into consideration and refined the definitions. Building on state-of-the-art approaches, we extend support from three to six software package registries, and leverage package metadata to distinguish benign packages. Our approach significantly reduces 64% false-positive (from 77% to 13%), with acceptable additional overhead to filter out benign packages by analyzing the package metadata. ConfuGuard is in production at our industry partner, whose analysts have already confirmed 301 packages detected by ConfuGuard as real attacks. We share lessons learned from production and provide insights to researchers.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 27, 2025

MOMAland: A Set of Benchmarks for Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Many challenging tasks such as managing traffic systems, electricity grids, or supply chains involve complex decision-making processes that must balance multiple conflicting objectives and coordinate the actions of various independent decision-makers (DMs). One perspective for formalising and addressing such tasks is multi-objective multi-agent reinforcement learning (MOMARL). MOMARL broadens reinforcement learning (RL) to problems with multiple agents each needing to consider multiple objectives in their learning process. In reinforcement learning research, benchmarks are crucial in facilitating progress, evaluation, and reproducibility. The significance of benchmarks is underscored by the existence of numerous benchmark frameworks developed for various RL paradigms, including single-agent RL (e.g., Gymnasium), multi-agent RL (e.g., PettingZoo), and single-agent multi-objective RL (e.g., MO-Gymnasium). To support the advancement of the MOMARL field, we introduce MOMAland, the first collection of standardised environments for multi-objective multi-agent reinforcement learning. MOMAland addresses the need for comprehensive benchmarking in this emerging field, offering over 10 diverse environments that vary in the number of agents, state representations, reward structures, and utility considerations. To provide strong baselines for future research, MOMAland also includes algorithms capable of learning policies in such settings.

  • 13 authors
·
Jul 23, 2024 3

Hidden Licensing Risks in the LLMware Ecosystem

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into software systems, giving rise to a new class of systems referred to as LLMware. Beyond traditional source-code components, LLMware embeds or interacts with LLMs that depend on other models and datasets, forming complex supply chains across open-source software (OSS), models, and datasets. However, licensing issues emerging from these intertwined dependencies remain largely unexplored. Leveraging GitHub and Hugging Face, we curate a large-scale dataset capturing LLMware supply chains, including 12,180 OSS repositories, 3,988 LLMs, and 708 datasets. Our analysis reveals that license distributions in LLMware differ substantially from traditional OSS ecosystems. We further examine license-related discussions and find that license selection and maintenance are the dominant concerns, accounting for 84% of cases. To understand incompatibility risks, we analyze license conflicts along supply chains and evaluate state-of-the-art detection approaches, which achieve only 58% and 76% F1 scores in this setting. Motivated by these limitations, we propose LiAgent, an LLM-based agent framework for ecosystem-level license compatibility analysis. LiAgent achieves an F1 score of 87%, improving performance by 14 percentage points over prior methods. We reported 60 incompatibility issues detected by LiAgent, 11 of which have been confirmed by developers. Notably, two conflicted LLMs have over 107 million and 5 million downloads on Hugging Face, respectively, indicating potentially widespread downstream impact. We conclude with implications and recommendations to support the sustainable growth of the LLMware ecosystem.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 11

Efficiently Training Deep-Learning Parametric Policies using Lagrangian Duality

Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) are critical in many high-stakes applications, where decisions must optimize cumulative rewards while strictly adhering to complex nonlinear constraints. In domains such as power systems, finance, supply chains, and precision robotics, violating these constraints can result in significant financial or societal costs. Existing Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods often struggle with sample efficiency and effectiveness in finding feasible policies for highly and strictly constrained CMDPs, limiting their applicability in these environments. Stochastic dual dynamic programming is often used in practice on convex relaxations of the original problem, but they also encounter computational challenges and loss of optimality. This paper introduces a novel approach, Two-Stage Deep Decision Rules (TS-DDR), to efficiently train parametric actor policies using Lagrangian Duality. TS-DDR is a self-supervised learning algorithm that trains general decision rules (parametric policies) using stochastic gradient descent (SGD); its forward passes solve {\em deterministic} optimization problems to find feasible policies, and its backward passes leverage duality theory to train the parametric policy with closed-form gradients. TS-DDR inherits the flexibility and computational performance of deep learning methodologies to solve CMDP problems. Applied to the Long-Term Hydrothermal Dispatch (LTHD) problem using actual power system data from Bolivia, TS-DDR is shown to enhance solution quality and to reduce computation times by several orders of magnitude when compared to current state-of-the-art methods.

  • 4 authors
·
May 23, 2024

ShortageSim: Simulating Drug Shortages under Information Asymmetry

Drug shortages pose critical risks to patient care and healthcare systems worldwide, yet the effectiveness of regulatory interventions remains poorly understood due to information asymmetries in pharmaceutical supply chains. We propose ShortageSim, addresses this challenge by providing the first simulation framework that evaluates the impact of regulatory interventions on competition dynamics under information asymmetry. Using Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents, the framework models the strategic decisions of drug manufacturers and institutional buyers, in response to shortage alerts given by the regulatory agency. Unlike traditional game theory models that assume perfect rationality and complete information, ShortageSim simulates heterogeneous interpretations on regulatory announcements and the resulting decisions. Experiments on self-processed dataset of historical shortage events show that ShortageSim reduces the resolution lag for production disruption cases by up to 84\%, achieving closer alignment to real-world trajectories than the zero-shot baseline. Our framework confirms the effect of regulatory alert in addressing shortages and introduces a new method for understanding competition in multi-stage environments under uncertainty. We open-source ShortageSim and a dataset of 2,925 FDA shortage events, providing a novel framework for future research on policy design and testing in supply chains under information asymmetry.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 1, 2025

Predicting Maintenance Cessation of Open Source Software Repositories with An Integrated Feature Framework

The maintenance risks of open source software (OSS) projects pose significant threats to the quality, security, and resilience of modern software supply chains. While prior research has proposed diverse approaches for predicting OSS maintenance risk -- leveraging signals ranging from surface features (e.g., stars, commits) to social network analyses and behavioral patterns -- existing methods often suffer from ambiguous operational definitions, limited interpretability, and datasets of insufficient scale or generalizability. In this work, we introduce ``maintenance cessation'', grounded in both explicit archival status and rigorous semantic analysis of project documentation. Building on this foundation, we curate a large-scale, longitudinal dataset of 115,466 GitHub repositories -- encompassing 57,733 confirmed cessation events -- complemented by comprehensive, timeline-based behavioral features. We propose an integrated, multi-perspective feature framework for predicting maintenance cessation, systematically combining user-centric features, maintainer-centric features and project evolution features. AFT survival analysis demonstrates a high C-index (0.846), substantially outperforming models relying only on surface features. Feature ablation and SHAP analysis further confirm the effectiveness and interpretability of our approach. Finally, we demonstrate real-world applicability by deploying a GBSA classifier in the openEuler ecosystem for proactive package risk screening. Our work establishes a scalable, interpretable foundation for maintenance-risk prediction, enabling reproducible risk management across large-scale open source ecosystems.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 29, 2025

OmniForce: On Human-Centered, Large Model Empowered and Cloud-Edge Collaborative AutoML System

Automated machine learning (AutoML) seeks to build ML models with minimal human effort. While considerable research has been conducted in the area of AutoML in general, aiming to take humans out of the loop when building artificial intelligence (AI) applications, scant literature has focused on how AutoML works well in open-environment scenarios such as the process of training and updating large models, industrial supply chains or the industrial metaverse, where people often face open-loop problems during the search process: they must continuously collect data, update data and models, satisfy the requirements of the development and deployment environment, support massive devices, modify evaluation metrics, etc. Addressing the open-environment issue with pure data-driven approaches requires considerable data, computing resources, and effort from dedicated data engineers, making current AutoML systems and platforms inefficient and computationally intractable. Human-computer interaction is a practical and feasible way to tackle the problem of open-environment AI. In this paper, we introduce OmniForce, a human-centered AutoML (HAML) system that yields both human-assisted ML and ML-assisted human techniques, to put an AutoML system into practice and build adaptive AI in open-environment scenarios. Specifically, we present OmniForce in terms of ML version management; pipeline-driven development and deployment collaborations; a flexible search strategy framework; and widely provisioned and crowdsourced application algorithms, including large models. Furthermore, the (large) models constructed by OmniForce can be automatically turned into remote services in a few minutes; this process is dubbed model as a service (MaaS). Experimental results obtained in multiple search spaces and real-world use cases demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of OmniForce.

  • 28 authors
·
Mar 1, 2023

PeaTMOSS: A Dataset and Initial Analysis of Pre-Trained Models in Open-Source Software

The development and training of deep learning models have become increasingly costly and complex. Consequently, software engineers are adopting pre-trained models (PTMs) for their downstream applications. The dynamics of the PTM supply chain remain largely unexplored, signaling a clear need for structured datasets that document not only the metadata but also the subsequent applications of these models. Without such data, the MSR community cannot comprehensively understand the impact of PTM adoption and reuse. This paper presents the PeaTMOSS dataset, which comprises metadata for 281,638 PTMs and detailed snapshots for all PTMs with over 50 monthly downloads (14,296 PTMs), along with 28,575 open-source software repositories from GitHub that utilize these models. Additionally, the dataset includes 44,337 mappings from 15,129 downstream GitHub repositories to the 2,530 PTMs they use. To enhance the dataset's comprehensiveness, we developed prompts for a large language model to automatically extract model metadata, including the model's training datasets, parameters, and evaluation metrics. Our analysis of this dataset provides the first summary statistics for the PTM supply chain, showing the trend of PTM development and common shortcomings of PTM package documentation. Our example application reveals inconsistencies in software licenses across PTMs and their dependent projects. PeaTMOSS lays the foundation for future research, offering rich opportunities to investigate the PTM supply chain. We outline mining opportunities on PTMs, their downstream usage, and cross-cutting questions.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 1, 2024 1

G2PTL: A Pre-trained Model for Delivery Address and its Applications in Logistics System

Text-based delivery addresses, as the data foundation for logistics systems, contain abundant and crucial location information. How to effectively encode the delivery address is a core task to boost the performance of downstream tasks in the logistics system. Pre-trained Models (PTMs) designed for Natural Language Process (NLP) have emerged as the dominant tools for encoding semantic information in text. Though promising, those NLP-based PTMs fall short of encoding geographic knowledge in the delivery address, which considerably trims down the performance of delivery-related tasks in logistic systems such as Cainiao. To tackle the above problem, we propose a domain-specific pre-trained model, named G2PTL, a Geography-Graph Pre-trained model for delivery address in Logistics field. G2PTL combines the semantic learning capabilities of text pre-training with the geographical-relationship encoding abilities of graph modeling. Specifically, we first utilize real-world logistics delivery data to construct a large-scale heterogeneous graph of delivery addresses, which contains abundant geographic knowledge and delivery information. Then, G2PTL is pre-trained with subgraphs sampled from the heterogeneous graph. Comprehensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of G2PTL through four downstream tasks in logistics systems on real-world datasets. G2PTL has been deployed in production in Cainiao's logistics system, which significantly improves the performance of delivery-related tasks.

  • 8 authors
·
Apr 4, 2023

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Inventory Networks: Toward Reliable Policy Optimization

We argue that inventory management presents unique opportunities for the reliable application of deep reinforcement learning (DRL). To enable this, we emphasize and test two complementary techniques. The first is Hindsight Differentiable Policy Optimization (HDPO), which uses pathwise gradients from offline counterfactual simulations to directly and efficiently optimize policy performance. Unlike standard policy gradient methods that rely on high-variance score-function estimators, HDPO computes gradients by differentiating through the known system dynamics. Via extensive benchmarking, we show that HDPO recovers near-optimal policies in settings with known or bounded optima, is more robust than variants of the REINFORCE algorithm, and significantly outperforms generalized newsvendor heuristics on problems using real time series data. Our second technique aligns neural policy architectures with the topology of the inventory network. We exploit Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) as a natural inductive bias for encoding supply chain structure, demonstrate that they can represent optimal and near-optimal policies in two theoretical settings, and empirically show that they reduce data requirements across six diverse inventory problems. A key obstacle to progress in this area is the lack of standardized benchmark problems. To address this gap, we open-source a suite of benchmark environments, along with our full codebase, to promote transparency and reproducibility. All resources are available at github.com/MatiasAlvo/Neural_inventory_control.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 19, 2023

Benefits of Resource Strategy for Sustainable Materials Research and Development

Material and product life cycles are based on complex value chains of technology-specific elements. Resource strategy aspects of essential and strategic raw materials have a direct impact on applications of new functionalized materials or the development of novel products. Thus, an urgent challenge of modern materials science is to obtain information about the supply risk and environmental aspects of resource utilization, especially at an early stage of basic research. Combining the fields of materials science, industrial engineering and resource strategy enables a multidisciplinary research approach to identify specific risks within the value chain, aggregated as the so-called resource criticality. Here, we demonstrate a step-by-step criticality assessment in the sector of basic materials research for multifunctional hexagonal manganite YMnO3, which can be a candidate for future electronic systems. Raw material restrictions can be quantitatively identified, even at such an early stage of materials research, from eleven long-term indicators including our new developed Sector Competition Index. This approach for resource strategy for modern material science integrates two objective targets: reduced supply risk and enhanced environmental sustainability of new functionalized materials, showing drawbacks but also benefits towards a sustainable materials research and development.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 6, 2017

Data-Chain Backdoor: Do You Trust Diffusion Models as Generative Data Supplier?

The increasing use of generative models such as diffusion models for synthetic data augmentation has greatly reduced the cost of data collection and labeling in downstream perception tasks. However, this new data source paradigm may introduce important security concerns. Publicly available generative models are often reused without verification, raising a fundamental question of their safety and trustworthiness. This work investigates backdoor propagation in such emerging generative data supply chain, namely, Data-Chain Backdoor (DCB). Specifically, we find that open-source diffusion models can become hidden carriers of backdoors. Their strong distribution-fitting ability causes them to memorize and reproduce backdoor triggers in generation, which are subsequently inherited by downstream models, resulting in severe security risks. This threat is particularly concerning under clean-label attack scenarios, as it remains effective while having negligible impact on the utility of the synthetic data. We study two attacker choices to obtain a backdoor-carried generator, training from scratch and fine-tuning. While naive fine-tuning leads to weak inheritance of the backdoor, we find that novel designs in the loss objectives and trigger processing can substantially improve the generator's ability to preserve trigger patterns, making fine-tuning a low-cost attack path. We evaluate the effectiveness of DCB under the standard augmentation protocol and further assess data-scarce settings. Across multiple trigger types, we observe that the trigger pattern can be consistently retained in the synthetic data with attack efficacy comparable to the conventional backdoor attack.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 12, 2025

LaDe: The First Comprehensive Last-mile Delivery Dataset from Industry

Real-world last-mile delivery datasets are crucial for research in logistics, supply chain management, and spatio-temporal data mining. Despite a plethora of algorithms developed to date, no widely accepted, publicly available last-mile delivery dataset exists to support research in this field. In this paper, we introduce LaDe, the first publicly available last-mile delivery dataset with millions of packages from the industry. LaDe has three unique characteristics: (1) Large-scale. It involves 10,677k packages of 21k couriers over 6 months of real-world operation. (2) Comprehensive information. It offers original package information, such as its location and time requirements, as well as task-event information, which records when and where the courier is while events such as task-accept and task-finish events happen. (3) Diversity. The dataset includes data from various scenarios, including package pick-up and delivery, and from multiple cities, each with its unique spatio-temporal patterns due to their distinct characteristics such as populations. We verify LaDe on three tasks by running several classical baseline models per task. We believe that the large-scale, comprehensive, diverse feature of LaDe can offer unparalleled opportunities to researchers in the supply chain community, data mining community, and beyond. The dataset homepage is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Cainiao-AI/LaDe.

  • 13 authors
·
Jun 18, 2023

Taint-Based Code Slicing for LLMs-based Malicious NPM Package Detection

Software supply chain attacks targeting the npm ecosystem have become increasingly sophisticated, leveraging obfuscation and complex logic to evade traditional detection mechanisms. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have attracted significant attention for malicious code detection due to their strong capabilities in semantic code understanding. However, the practical deployment of LLMs in this domain is severely constrained by limited context windows and high computational costs. Naive approaches, such as token-based code splitting, often fragment semantic context, leading to degraded detection performance. To overcome these challenges, this paper introduces a novel LLM-based framework for malicious npm package detection that leverages code slicing techniques. A specialized taint-based slicing method tailored to the JavaScript ecosystem is proposed to recover malicious data flows. By isolating security-relevant logic from benign boilerplate code, the approach reduces the input code volume by over 99\% while preserving critical malicious behaviors. The framework is evaluated on a curated dataset comprising over 7000 malicious and benign npm packages. Experimental results using the DeepSeek-Coder-6.7B model demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves a detection accuracy of 87.04\%, significantly outperforming a full-package baseline based on naive token splitting (75.41\%). These results indicate that semantically optimized input representations via code slicing not only mitigate the LLM context window bottleneck but also enhance reasoning precision for security analysis, providing an effective defense against evolving open-source software supply chain threats.

  • 8 authors
·
Dec 13, 2025

Compliance Cards: Computational Artifacts for Automated AI Regulation Compliance

As the artificial intelligence (AI) supply chain grows more complex, AI systems and models are increasingly likely to incorporate externally-sourced ingredients such as datasets and other models. In such cases, determining whether or not an AI system or model complies with the EU AI Act will require gathering compliance-related metadata about both the AI system or model at-large as well as those externally-supplied ingredients. There must then be an analysis that looks across all of this metadata to render a prediction about the compliance of the overall AI system or model. Up until now, this process has not been automated. Thus, it has not been possible to make real-time compliance determinations in scenarios where doing so would be advantageous, such as the iterative workflows of today's AI developers, search and acquisition of AI ingredients on communities like Hugging Face, federated and continuous learning, and more. To address this shortcoming, we introduce a highly automated system for AI Act compliance analysis. This system has two key elements. First is an interlocking set of computational artifacts that capture compliance-related metadata about both: (1) the AI system or model at-large; (2) any constituent ingredients such as datasets and models. Second is an automated analysis algorithm that operates across those computational artifacts to render a run-time prediction about whether or not the overall AI system or model complies with the AI Act. Working together, these elements promise to enhance and accelerate AI Act compliance assessments.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 20, 2024

BadTemplate: A Training-Free Backdoor Attack via Chat Template Against Large Language Models

Chat template is a common technique used in the training and inference stages of Large Language Models (LLMs). It can transform input and output data into role-based and templated expressions to enhance the performance of LLMs. However, this also creates a breeding ground for novel attack surfaces. In this paper, we first reveal that the customizability of chat templates allows an attacker who controls the template to inject arbitrary strings into the system prompt without the user's notice. Building on this, we propose a training-free backdoor attack, termed BadTemplate. Specifically, BadTemplate inserts carefully crafted malicious instructions into the high-priority system prompt, thereby causing the target LLM to exhibit persistent backdoor behaviors. BadTemplate outperforms traditional backdoor attacks by embedding malicious instructions directly into the system prompt, eliminating the need for model retraining while achieving high attack effectiveness with minimal cost. Furthermore, its simplicity and scalability make it easily and widely deployed in real-world systems, raising serious risks of rapid propagation, economic damage, and large-scale misinformation. Furthermore, detection by major third-party platforms HuggingFace and LLM-as-a-judge proves largely ineffective against BadTemplate. Extensive experiments conducted on 5 benchmark datasets across 6 open-source and 3 closed-source LLMs, compared with 3 baselines, demonstrate that BadTemplate achieves up to a 100% attack success rate and significantly outperforms traditional prompt-based backdoors in both word-level and sentence-level attacks. Our work highlights the potential security risks raised by chat templates in the LLM supply chain, thereby supporting the development of effective defense mechanisms.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 5

What do we know about Hugging Face? A systematic literature review and quantitative validation of qualitative claims

Background: Collaborative Software Package Registries (SPRs) are an integral part of the software supply chain. Much engineering work synthesizes SPR package into applications. Prior research has examined SPRs for traditional software, such as NPM (JavaScript) and PyPI (Python). Pre-Trained Model (PTM) Registries are an emerging class of SPR of increasing importance, because they support the deep learning supply chain. Aims: Recent empirical research has examined PTM registries in ways such as vulnerabilities, reuse processes, and evolution. However, no existing research synthesizes them to provide a systematic understanding of the current knowledge. Some of the existing research includes qualitative claims lacking quantitative analysis. Our research fills these gaps by providing a knowledge synthesis and quantitative analyses. Methods: We first conduct a systematic literature review (SLR). We then observe that some of the claims are qualitative. We identify quantifiable metrics associated with those claims, and measure in order to substantiate these claims. Results: From our SLR, we identify 12 claims about PTM reuse on the HuggingFace platform, 4 of which lack quantitative validation. We successfully test 3 of these claims through a quantitative analysis, and directly compare one with traditional software. Our findings corroborate qualitative claims with quantitative measurements. Our findings are: (1) PTMs have a much higher turnover rate than traditional software, indicating a dynamic and rapidly evolving reuse environment within the PTM ecosystem; and (2) There is a strong correlation between documentation quality and PTM popularity. Conclusions: We confirm qualitative research claims with concrete metrics, supporting prior qualitative and case study research. Our measures show further dynamics of PTM reuse, inspiring research infrastructure and new measures.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 12, 2024

Models Are Codes: Towards Measuring Malicious Code Poisoning Attacks on Pre-trained Model Hubs

The proliferation of pre-trained models (PTMs) and datasets has led to the emergence of centralized model hubs like Hugging Face, which facilitate collaborative development and reuse. However, recent security reports have uncovered vulnerabilities and instances of malicious attacks within these platforms, highlighting growing security concerns. This paper presents the first systematic study of malicious code poisoning attacks on pre-trained model hubs, focusing on the Hugging Face platform. We conduct a comprehensive threat analysis, develop a taxonomy of model formats, and perform root cause analysis of vulnerable formats. While existing tools like Fickling and ModelScan offer some protection, they face limitations in semantic-level analysis and comprehensive threat detection. To address these challenges, we propose MalHug, an end-to-end pipeline tailored for Hugging Face that combines dataset loading script extraction, model deserialization, in-depth taint analysis, and heuristic pattern matching to detect and classify malicious code poisoning attacks in datasets and models. In collaboration with Ant Group, a leading financial technology company, we have implemented and deployed MalHug on a mirrored Hugging Face instance within their infrastructure, where it has been operational for over three months. During this period, MalHug has monitored more than 705K models and 176K datasets, uncovering 91 malicious models and 9 malicious dataset loading scripts. These findings reveal a range of security threats, including reverse shell, browser credential theft, and system reconnaissance. This work not only bridges a critical gap in understanding the security of the PTM supply chain but also provides a practical, industry-tested solution for enhancing the security of pre-trained model hubs.

  • 9 authors
·
Sep 14, 2024

SoK: Agentic Skills -- Beyond Tool Use in LLM Agents

Agentic systems increasingly rely on reusable procedural capabilities, a.k.a., agentic skills, to execute long-horizon workflows reliably. These capabilities are callable modules that package procedural knowledge with explicit applicability conditions, execution policies, termination criteria, and reusable interfaces. Unlike one-off plans or atomic tool calls, skills operate (and often do well) across tasks. This paper maps the skill layer across the full lifecycle (discovery, practice, distillation, storage, composition, evaluation, and update) and introduces two complementary taxonomies. The first is a system-level set of seven design patterns capturing how skills are packaged and executed in practice, from metadata-driven progressive disclosure and executable code skills to self-evolving libraries and marketplace distribution. The second is an orthogonal representation times scope taxonomy describing what skills are (natural language, code, policy, hybrid) and what environments they operate over (web, OS, software engineering, robotics). We analyze the security and governance implications of skill-based agents, covering supply-chain risks, prompt injection via skill payloads, and trust-tiered execution, grounded by a case study of the ClawHavoc campaign in which nearly 1{,}200 malicious skills infiltrated a major agent marketplace, exfiltrating API keys, cryptocurrency wallets, and browser credentials at scale. We further survey deterministic evaluation approaches, anchored by recent benchmark evidence that curated skills can substantially improve agent success rates while self-generated skills may degrade them. We conclude with open challenges toward robust, verifiable, and certifiable skills for real-world autonomous agents.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 24

Skill-Inject: Measuring Agent Vulnerability to Skill File Attacks

LLM agents are evolving rapidly, powered by code execution, tools, and the recently introduced agent skills feature. Skills allow users to extend LLM applications with specialized third-party code, knowledge, and instructions. Although this can extend agent capabilities to new domains, it creates an increasingly complex agent supply chain, offering new surfaces for prompt injection attacks. We identify skill-based prompt injection as a significant threat and introduce SkillInject, a benchmark evaluating the susceptibility of widely-used LLM agents to injections through skill files. SkillInject contains 202 injection-task pairs with attacks ranging from obviously malicious injections to subtle, context-dependent attacks hidden in otherwise legitimate instructions. We evaluate frontier LLMs on SkillInject, measuring both security in terms of harmful instruction avoidance and utility in terms of legitimate instruction compliance. Our results show that today's agents are highly vulnerable with up to 80% attack success rate with frontier models, often executing extremely harmful instructions including data exfiltration, destructive action, and ransomware-like behavior. They furthermore suggest that this problem will not be solved through model scaling or simple input filtering, but that robust agent security will require context-aware authorization frameworks. Our benchmark is available at https://www.skill-inject.com/.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 23

FengHuang: Next-Generation Memory Orchestration for AI Inferencing

This document presents a vision for a novel AI infrastructure design that has been initially validated through inference simulations on state-of-the-art large language models. Advancements in deep learning and specialized hardware have driven the rapid growth of large language models (LLMs) and generative AI systems. However, traditional GPU-centric architectures face scalability challenges for inference workloads due to limitations in memory capacity, bandwidth, and interconnect scaling. To address these issues, the FengHuang Platform, a disaggregated AI infrastructure platform, is proposed to overcome memory and communication scaling limits for AI inference. FengHuang features a multi-tier shared-memory architecture combining high-speed local memory with centralized disaggregated remote memory, enhanced by active tensor paging and near-memory compute for tensor operations. Simulations demonstrate that FengHuang achieves up to 93% local memory capacity reduction, 50% GPU compute savings, and 16x to 70x faster inter-GPU communication compared to conventional GPU scaling. Across workloads such as GPT-3, Grok-1, and QWEN3-235B, FengHuang enables up to 50% GPU reductions while maintaining end-user performance, offering a scalable, flexible, and cost-effective solution for AI inference infrastructure. FengHuang provides an optimal balance as a rack-level AI infrastructure scale-up solution. Its open, heterogeneous design eliminates vendor lock-in and enhances supply chain flexibility, enabling significant infrastructure and power cost reductions.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 13, 2025

Large Population Models

Many of society's most pressing challenges, from pandemic response to supply chain disruptions to climate adaptation, emerge from the collective behavior of millions of autonomous agents making decisions over time. Large Population Models (LPMs) offer an approach to understand these complex systems by simulating entire populations with realistic behaviors and interactions at unprecedented scale. LPMs extend traditional modeling approaches through three key innovations: computational methods that efficiently simulate millions of agents simultaneously, mathematical frameworks that learn from diverse real-world data streams, and privacy-preserving communication protocols that bridge virtual and physical environments. This allows researchers to observe how agent behavior aggregates into system-level outcomes and test interventions before real-world implementation. While current AI advances primarily focus on creating "digital humans" with sophisticated individual capabilities, LPMs develop "digital societies" where the richness of interactions reveals emergent phenomena. By bridging individual agent behavior and population-scale dynamics, LPMs offer a complementary path in AI research illuminating collective intelligence and providing testing grounds for policies and social innovations before real-world deployment. We discuss the technical foundations and some open problems here. LPMs are implemented by the AgentTorch framework (github.com/AgentTorch/AgentTorch)

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 14, 2025

Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Opportunities, Alternatives and Challenges for Decarbonizing the Aviation Industry and Foster the Renewable Chemicals

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are pivotal in the global effort to decarbonize the aviation sector and meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets established by international frameworks such as CORSIA and Brazil ProBioQAV. This study evaluates SAF potential to reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80% while being compatible with existing aviation infrastructure. Through bibliometric analysis, scenario evaluation, legal and regulatory framework analysis and economic modeling, the research examines two key SAF production technologies: Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (HEFA-SPK) and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) pathways in the Brazilian context. The findings reveal significant economic challenges, particularly high feedstock and production costs, which hinder SAF competitiveness with fossil fuels at recent and current market prices in Brazil, leading to the analysis of potential incentives and commercial conditions aiming to increase economic attractiveness of SAF production. Based on interviews with relevant stakeholders and decision makers in the industry, scenarios incorporating tax incentives, carbon credits, capital grants, and premium pricing for SAF and its biogenic by-products demonstrate that combined policy interventions and commercial arrangements, along with a regulated Carbon Market are essential for SAF economic viability. Future research is suggested to look at regional assessments of feedstock availability, supply chain logistics, and global market eligibility. This research provides insights for guiding public policy and private investment to support the transition to sustainable aviation in Brazil and beyond.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 4, 2025

Digital Twins for Patient Care via Knowledge Graphs and Closed-Form Continuous-Time Liquid Neural Networks

Digital twin technology has is anticipated to transform healthcare, enabling personalized medicines and support, earlier diagnoses, simulated treatment outcomes, and optimized surgical plans. Digital twins are readily gaining traction in industries like manufacturing, supply chain logistics, and civil infrastructure. Not in patient care, however. The challenge of modeling complex diseases with multimodal patient data and the computational complexities of analyzing it have stifled digital twin adoption in the biomedical vertical. Yet, these major obstacles can potentially be handled by approaching these models in a different way. This paper proposes a novel framework for addressing the barriers to clinical twin modeling created by computational costs and modeling complexities. We propose structuring patient health data as a knowledge graph and using closed-form continuous-time liquid neural networks, for real-time analytics. By synthesizing multimodal patient data and leveraging the flexibility and efficiency of closed form continuous time networks and knowledge graph ontologies, our approach enables real time insights, personalized medicine, early diagnosis and intervention, and optimal surgical planning. This novel approach provides a comprehensive and adaptable view of patient health along with real-time analytics, paving the way for digital twin simulations and other anticipated benefits in healthcare.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 8, 2023

Spinning Language Models: Risks of Propaganda-As-A-Service and Countermeasures

We investigate a new threat to neural sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models: training-time attacks that cause models to "spin" their outputs so as to support an adversary-chosen sentiment or point of view -- but only when the input contains adversary-chosen trigger words. For example, a spinned summarization model outputs positive summaries of any text that mentions the name of some individual or organization. Model spinning introduces a "meta-backdoor" into a model. Whereas conventional backdoors cause models to produce incorrect outputs on inputs with the trigger, outputs of spinned models preserve context and maintain standard accuracy metrics, yet also satisfy a meta-task chosen by the adversary. Model spinning enables propaganda-as-a-service, where propaganda is defined as biased speech. An adversary can create customized language models that produce desired spins for chosen triggers, then deploy these models to generate disinformation (a platform attack), or else inject them into ML training pipelines (a supply-chain attack), transferring malicious functionality to downstream models trained by victims. To demonstrate the feasibility of model spinning, we develop a new backdooring technique. It stacks an adversarial meta-task onto a seq2seq model, backpropagates the desired meta-task output to points in the word-embedding space we call "pseudo-words," and uses pseudo-words to shift the entire output distribution of the seq2seq model. We evaluate this attack on language generation, summarization, and translation models with different triggers and meta-tasks such as sentiment, toxicity, and entailment. Spinned models largely maintain their accuracy metrics (ROUGE and BLEU) while shifting their outputs to satisfy the adversary's meta-task. We also show that, in the case of a supply-chain attack, the spin functionality transfers to downstream models.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 9, 2021

HSCodeComp: A Realistic and Expert-level Benchmark for Deep Search Agents in Hierarchical Rule Application

Effective deep search agents must not only access open-domain and domain-specific knowledge but also apply complex rules-such as legal clauses, medical manuals and tariff rules. These rules often feature vague boundaries and implicit logic relationships, making precise application challenging for agents. However, this critical capability is largely overlooked by current agent benchmarks. To fill this gap, we introduce HSCodeComp, the first realistic, expert-level e-commerce benchmark designed to evaluate deep search agents in hierarchical rule application. In this task, the deep reasoning process of agents is guided by these rules to predict 10-digit Harmonized System Code (HSCode) of products with noisy but realistic descriptions. These codes, established by the World Customs Organization, are vital for global supply chain efficiency. Built from real-world data collected from large-scale e-commerce platforms, our proposed HSCodeComp comprises 632 product entries spanning diverse product categories, with these HSCodes annotated by several human experts. Extensive experimental results on several state-of-the-art LLMs, open-source, and closed-source agents reveal a huge performance gap: best agent achieves only 46.8% 10-digit accuracy, far below human experts at 95.0%. Besides, detailed analysis demonstrates the challenges of hierarchical rule application, and test-time scaling fails to improve performance further.

AIDC-AI AIDC-AI
·
Oct 22, 2025 2

Computing Power and the Governance of Artificial Intelligence

Computing power, or "compute," is crucial for the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. As a result, governments and companies have started to leverage compute as a means to govern AI. For example, governments are investing in domestic compute capacity, controlling the flow of compute to competing countries, and subsidizing compute access to certain sectors. However, these efforts only scratch the surface of how compute can be used to govern AI development and deployment. Relative to other key inputs to AI (data and algorithms), AI-relevant compute is a particularly effective point of intervention: it is detectable, excludable, and quantifiable, and is produced via an extremely concentrated supply chain. These characteristics, alongside the singular importance of compute for cutting-edge AI models, suggest that governing compute can contribute to achieving common policy objectives, such as ensuring the safety and beneficial use of AI. More precisely, policymakers could use compute to facilitate regulatory visibility of AI, allocate resources to promote beneficial outcomes, and enforce restrictions against irresponsible or malicious AI development and usage. However, while compute-based policies and technologies have the potential to assist in these areas, there is significant variation in their readiness for implementation. Some ideas are currently being piloted, while others are hindered by the need for fundamental research. Furthermore, naive or poorly scoped approaches to compute governance carry significant risks in areas like privacy, economic impacts, and centralization of power. We end by suggesting guardrails to minimize these risks from compute governance.

  • 19 authors
·
Feb 13, 2024 2

Agent Skills in the Wild: An Empirical Study of Security Vulnerabilities at Scale

The rise of AI agent frameworks has introduced agent skills, modular packages containing instructions and executable code that dynamically extend agent capabilities. While this architecture enables powerful customization, skills execute with implicit trust and minimal vetting, creating a significant yet uncharacterized attack surface. We conduct the first large-scale empirical security analysis of this emerging ecosystem, collecting 42,447 skills from two major marketplaces and systematically analyzing 31,132 using SkillScan, a multi-stage detection framework integrating static analysis with LLM-based semantic classification. Our findings reveal pervasive security risks: 26.1% of skills contain at least one vulnerability, spanning 14 distinct patterns across four categories: prompt injection, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, and supply chain risks. Data exfiltration (13.3%) and privilege escalation (11.8%) are most prevalent, while 5.2% of skills exhibit high-severity patterns strongly suggesting malicious intent. We find that skills bundling executable scripts are 2.12x more likely to contain vulnerabilities than instruction-only skills (OR=2.12, p<0.001). Our contributions include: (1) a grounded vulnerability taxonomy derived from 8,126 vulnerable skills, (2) a validated detection methodology achieving 86.7% precision and 82.5% recall, and (3) an open dataset and detection toolkit to support future research. These results demonstrate an urgent need for capability-based permission systems and mandatory security vetting before this attack vector is further exploited.

  • 8 authors
·
Jan 15 2

LibVulnWatch: A Deep Assessment Agent System and Leaderboard for Uncovering Hidden Vulnerabilities in Open-Source AI Libraries

Open-source AI libraries are foundational to modern AI systems but pose significant, underexamined risks across security, licensing, maintenance, supply chain integrity, and regulatory compliance. We present LibVulnWatch, a graph-based agentic assessment framework that performs deep, source-grounded evaluations of these libraries. Built on LangGraph, the system coordinates a directed acyclic graph of specialized agents to extract, verify, and quantify risk using evidence from trusted sources such as repositories, documentation, and vulnerability databases. LibVulnWatch generates reproducible, governance-aligned scores across five critical domains, publishing them to a public leaderboard for longitudinal ecosystem monitoring. Applied to 20 widely used libraries, including ML frameworks, LLM inference engines, and agent orchestration tools, our system covers up to 88% of OpenSSF Scorecard checks while uncovering up to 19 additional risks per library. These include critical Remote Code Execution (RCE) vulnerabilities, absent Software Bills of Materials (SBOMs), licensing constraints, undocumented telemetry, and widespread gaps in regulatory documentation and auditability. By translating high-level governance principles into practical, verifiable metrics, LibVulnWatch advances technical AI governance with a scalable, transparent mechanism for continuous supply chain risk assessment and informed library selection.

  • 10 authors
·
May 13, 2025

4.5 Million (Suspected) Fake Stars in GitHub: A Growing Spiral of Popularity Contests, Scams, and Malware

GitHub, the de-facto platform for open-source software development, provides a set of social-media-like features to signal high-quality repositories. Among them, the star count is the most widely used popularity signal, but it is also at risk of being artificially inflated (i.e., faked), decreasing its value as a decision-making signal and posing a security risk to all GitHub users. In this paper, we present a systematic, global, and longitudinal measurement study of fake stars in GitHub. To this end, we build StarScout, a scalable tool able to detect anomalous starring behaviors (i.e., low activity and lockstep) across the entire GitHub metadata. Analyzing the data collected using StarScout, we find that: (1) fake-star-related activities have rapidly surged since 2024; (2) the user profile characteristics of fake stargazers are not distinct from average GitHub users, but many of them have highly abnormal activity patterns; (3) the majority of fake stars are used to promote short-lived malware repositories masquerading as pirating software, game cheats, or cryptocurrency bots; (4) some repositories may have acquired fake stars for growth hacking, but fake stars only have a promotion effect in the short term (i.e., less than two months) and become a burden in the long term. Our study has implications for platform moderators, open-source practitioners, and supply chain security researchers.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 17, 2024

MatterGen: a generative model for inorganic materials design

The design of functional materials with desired properties is essential in driving technological advances in areas like energy storage, catalysis, and carbon capture. Generative models provide a new paradigm for materials design by directly generating entirely novel materials given desired property constraints. Despite recent progress, current generative models have low success rate in proposing stable crystals, or can only satisfy a very limited set of property constraints. Here, we present MatterGen, a model that generates stable, diverse inorganic materials across the periodic table and can further be fine-tuned to steer the generation towards a broad range of property constraints. To enable this, we introduce a new diffusion-based generative process that produces crystalline structures by gradually refining atom types, coordinates, and the periodic lattice. We further introduce adapter modules to enable fine-tuning towards any given property constraints with a labeled dataset. Compared to prior generative models, structures produced by MatterGen are more than twice as likely to be novel and stable, and more than 15 times closer to the local energy minimum. After fine-tuning, MatterGen successfully generates stable, novel materials with desired chemistry, symmetry, as well as mechanical, electronic and magnetic properties. Finally, we demonstrate multi-property materials design capabilities by proposing structures that have both high magnetic density and a chemical composition with low supply-chain risk. We believe that the quality of generated materials and the breadth of MatterGen's capabilities represent a major advancement towards creating a universal generative model for materials design.

  • 21 authors
·
Dec 6, 2023

DeliveryBench: Can Agents Earn Profit in Real World?

LLMs and VLMs are increasingly deployed as embodied agents, yet existing benchmarks largely revolve around simple short-term tasks and struggle to capture rich realistic constraints that shape real-world decision making. To close this gap, we propose DeliveryBench, a city-scale embodied benchmark grounded in the real-world profession of food delivery. Food couriers naturally operate under long-horizon objectives (maximizing net profit over hours) while managing diverse constraints, e.g., delivery deadline, transportation expense, vehicle battery, and necessary interactions with other couriers and customers. DeliveryBench instantiates this setting in procedurally generated 3D cities with diverse road networks, buildings, functional locations, transportation modes, and realistic resource dynamics, enabling systematic evaluation of constraint-aware, long-horizon planning. We benchmark a range of VLM-based agents across nine cities and compare them with human players. Our results reveal a substantial performance gap to humans, and find that these agents are short-sighted and frequently break basic commonsense constraints. Additionally, we observe distinct personalities across models (e.g., adventurous GPT-5 vs. conservative Claude), highlighting both the brittleness and the diversity of current VLM-based embodied agents in realistic, constraint-dense environments. Our code, data, and benchmark are available at https://deliverybench.github.io.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 22, 2025

Standardized Threat Taxonomy for AI Security, Governance, and Regulatory Compliance

The accelerating deployment of artificial intelligence systems across regulated sectors has exposed critical fragmentation in risk assessment methodologies. A significant "language barrier" currently separates technical security teams, who focus on algorithmic vulnerabilities (e.g., MITRE ATLAS), from legal and compliance professionals, who address regulatory mandates (e.g., EU AI Act, NIST AI RMF). This disciplinary disconnect prevents the accurate translation of technical vulnerabilities into financial liability, leaving practitioners unable to answer fundamental economic questions regarding contingency reserves, control return-on-investment, and insurance exposure. To bridge this gap, this research presents the AI System Threat Vector Taxonomy, a structured ontology designed explicitly for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). The framework categorizes AI-specific risks into nine critical domains: Misuse, Poisoning, Privacy, Adversarial, Biases, Unreliable Outputs, Drift, Supply Chain, and IP Threat, integrating 53 operationally defined sub-threats. Uniquely, each domain maps technical vectors directly to business loss categories (Confidentiality, Integrity, Availability, Legal, Reputation), enabling the translation of abstract threats into measurable financial impact. The taxonomy is empirically validated through an analysis of 133 documented AI incidents from 2025 (achieving 100% classification coverage) and reconciled against the main AI risk frameworks. Furthermore, it is explicitly aligned with ISO/IEC 42001 controls and NIST AI RMF functions to facilitate auditability.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 26, 2025