Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as agents that rely on system prompts to use tools and complete tasks. Such deployments impose distinct operational requirements, including appropriate tool use, concise prompts and solution paths, and compliance with safety and formatting policies. For many practitioners, however, assembling domain-specific supervised data to post-train models to meet these requirements is infeasible. We introduce CAPO (Constraint-Aware Prompt Optimization), a primal-dual method that combines pool-based rewrites with adaptive constraint weighting to optimize system prompts under explicit operational constraints. Across agentic benchmarks, CAPO more reliably reaches empirically feasible operating points while improving task performance. CAPO also generalizes beyond agentic settings, achieving strong results on assistant-style evaluations with output-format and safety/privacy constraints. We further introduce DCAPO (Dynamically Trained CAPO), which trains a feedback- and dual-conditioned rewriter with pool-based GRPO while keeping the task agent frozen. Across task agents of different sizes, DCAPO produces a feasible prompt in every evaluated domain and matches or improves the task accuracy achieved by the evaluated baselines. A surrogate analysis characterizes how finite-pool and discrete-rewrite errors enter the inexact primal-dual procedure.

Deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) on edge devices faces severe computational and memory constraints, limiting real-time processing and on-device intelligence. Hybrid architectures combining Structured State Space Models (SSMs) with transformer-based LLMs offer a balance of efficiency and performance. Aggressive quantization can drastically cut model size and speed up inference, but its uneven effects on different components require careful management. In this work, we propose a lightweight, backpropagation-free, surrogate-based sensitivity analysis framework to identify hybrid SSM-Transformer components most susceptible to quantization-induced degradation. Relying solely on forward-pass metrics, our method avoids expensive gradient computations and retraining, making it suitable for situations where access to in-domain data is limited due to proprietary restrictions or privacy constraints. We also provide a formal analysis showing that the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence metric better captures quantization sensitivity for Language modeling tasks than widely adopted alternatives such as mean squared error (MSE) and signal-to-quantization-noise ratio (SQNR). Through extensive experiments on SSM and hybrid architectures, our ablation studies confirm that KL-based rankings align with observed performance drops and outperform alternative metrics. This framework enables the practical deployment of advanced hybrid models on resource-constrained edge devices with minimal accuracy loss. We further validate our approach with real-world on-device profiling on Intel Lunar Lake hardware, demonstrating that KL-guided mixed-precision achieves near-FP16 perplexity with model sizes and throughput competitive with Uniform INT4 on both CPU and GPU execution modes. Code is available at https://github.com/jasonkongie/kl-ssm-quant.

Offline optimization has recently emerged as an increasingly popular approach to mitigate the prohibitively expensive cost of online experimentation. The key idea is to learn a surrogate of the black-box function that underlines the target experiment using a static (offline) dataset of its previous input-output queries. Such an approach is, however, fraught with an out-of-distribution issue where the learned surrogate becomes inaccurate outside the offline data regimes. To mitigate this, existing offline optimizers have proposed numerous conditioning techniques to prevent the learned surrogate from being too erratic. Nonetheless, such conditioning strategies are often specific to particular surrogate or search models, which might not generalize to a different model choice. This motivates us to develop a model-agnostic approach instead, which incorporates a notion of model sharpness into the training loss of the surrogate as a regularizer. Our approach is supported by a new theoretical analysis demonstrating that reducing surrogate sharpness on the offline dataset provably reduces its generalized sharpness on unseen data. Our analysis extends existing theories from bounding generalized prediction loss (on unseen data) with loss sharpness to bounding the worst-case generalized surrogate sharpness with its empirical estimate on training data, providing a new perspective on sharpness regularization. Our extensive experimentation on a diverse range of optimization tasks also shows that reducing surrogate sharpness often leads to significant improvement, marking (up to) a noticeable 9.6% performance boost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/IGNITE

This paper presents a neural surrogate approach for improving the accuracy of natural convection problems simulated with a Boussinesq flow model (incompressible flow with heat transfer). Our approach, based on Fourier neural operators, uses training data consisting of matched pairs of simulations run under the computationally cheaper yet less accurate Boussinesq flow model and a more computationally expensive and more accurate compressible flow model. In both cases, we implement our parallelized simulation codes based on an implicit monolithic mixed finite element method (FEM) approach using the open-source FEniCSx framework. Our implementations are validated against a commercial software package, COMSOL, as well as standard test problems from the literature. We include a careful discussion and analysis of data set generation and present learning results in two and three spatial dimensions. Using compressible flow results as high-fidelity reference solutions, our learning approach, with a single model evaluation per simulation, substantially improves the per-channel accuracy of Boussinesq predictions, with structural similarity (SSIM) close to unity across all flow variables and test distributions and corresponding mean-squared error reductions of one to nearly three orders of magnitude. All code and data is released as open-source.

A recent trend in explainable AI research has focused on surrogate modeling, where neural networks are approximated as simpler ML algorithms such as kernel machines. A second trend has been to utilize kernel functions in various explain-by-example or data attribution tasks. In this work, we combine these two trends to analyze approximate empirical neural tangent kernels (eNTK) for data attribution. Approximation is critical for eNTK analysis due to the high computational cost to compute the eNTK. We define new approximate eNTK and perform novel analysis on how well the resulting kernel machine surrogate models correlate with the underlying neural network. We introduce two new random projection variants of approximate eNTK which allow users to tune the time and memory complexity of their calculation. We conclude that kernel machines using approximate neural tangent kernel as the kernel function are effective surrogate models, with the introduced trace NTK the most consistent performer. Open source software allowing users to efficiently calculate kernel functions in the PyTorch framework is available (https://github.com/pnnl/projection\_ntk).

State-of-the-art neural network training methods depend on the gradient of the network function. Therefore, they cannot be applied to networks whose activation functions do not have useful derivatives, such as binary and discrete-time spiking neural networks. To overcome this problem, the activation function's derivative is commonly substituted with a surrogate derivative, giving rise to surrogate gradient learning (SGL). This method works well in practice but lacks theoretical foundation. The neural tangent kernel (NTK) has proven successful in the analysis of gradient descent. Here, we provide a generalization of the NTK, which we call the surrogate gradient NTK, that enables the analysis of SGL. First, we study a naive extension of the NTK to activation functions with jumps, demonstrating that gradient descent for such activation functions is also ill-posed in the infinite-width limit. To address this problem, we generalize the NTK to gradient descent with surrogate derivatives, i.e., SGL. We carefully define this generalization and expand the existing key theorems on the NTK with mathematical rigor. Further, we illustrate our findings with numerical experiments. Finally, we numerically compare SGL in networks with sign activation function and finite width to kernel regression with the surrogate gradient NTK; the results confirm that the surrogate gradient NTK provides a good characterization of SGL.

The prediction of phase diagrams in the search for new phases is a complex and computationally intensive task. Density functional theory provides, in many situations, the desired accuracy, but its throughput becomes prohibitively limited as the number of species involved grows, even when used with local and semi-local functionals. Here, we explore the possibility of integrating machine-learning models in the workflow for the construction of ternary convex hull diagrams. In particular, we train a set of spectral neighbour-analysis potentials (SNAPs) over readily available binary phases and we establish whether this is good enough to predict the energies of novel ternaries. Such a strategy does not require any new calculations specific for the construction of the model, but just avails of data stored in binary-phase-diagram repositories. We find that a so-constructed SNAP is capable of accurate total-energy estimates for ternary phases close to the equilibrium geometry but, in general, is not able to perform atomic relaxation. This is because during a typical relaxation path a given phase traverses regions in the parameter space poorly represented by the training set. Different metrics are then investigated to assess how an unknown structure is well described by a given SNAP model, and we find that the standard deviation of an ensemble of SNAPs provides a fast and non-specie-specific metric.

Cross-entropy is a widely used loss function in applications. It coincides with the logistic loss applied to the outputs of a neural network, when the softmax is used. But, what guarantees can we rely on when using cross-entropy as a surrogate loss? We present a theoretical analysis of a broad family of loss functions, comp-sum losses, that includes cross-entropy (or logistic loss), generalized cross-entropy, the mean absolute error and other cross-entropy-like loss functions. We give the first H-consistency bounds for these loss functions. These are non-asymptotic guarantees that upper bound the zero-one loss estimation error in terms of the estimation error of a surrogate loss, for the specific hypothesis set H used. We further show that our bounds are tight. These bounds depend on quantities called minimizability gaps. To make them more explicit, we give a specific analysis of these gaps for comp-sum losses. We also introduce a new family of loss functions, smooth adversarial comp-sum losses, that are derived from their comp-sum counterparts by adding in a related smooth term. We show that these loss functions are beneficial in the adversarial setting by proving that they admit H-consistency bounds. This leads to new adversarial robustness algorithms that consist of minimizing a regularized smooth adversarial comp-sum loss. While our main purpose is a theoretical analysis, we also present an extensive empirical analysis comparing comp-sum losses. We further report the results of a series of experiments demonstrating that our adversarial robustness algorithms outperform the current state-of-the-art, while also achieving a superior non-adversarial accuracy.

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is a powerful but computationally intensive method for simulating physical phenomena. Recent advancements in machine learning have led to surrogate models capable of accelerating FEA. Yet there are still limitations in developing surrogates of transient FEA models that can simultaneously predict the solutions for both nodes and elements with applicability on both the 2D and 3D domains. Motivated by this research gap, this study proposes DeepFEA, a deep learning-based framework that leverages a multilayer Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network branching into two parallel convolutional neural networks to predict the solutions for both nodes and elements of FEA models. The proposed network is optimized using a novel adaptive learning algorithm, called Node-Element Loss Optimization (NELO). NELO minimizes the error occurring at both branches of the network enabling the prediction of solutions for transient FEA simulations. The experimental evaluation of DeepFEA is performed on three datasets in the context of structural mechanics, generated to serve as publicly available reference datasets. The results show that DeepFEA can achieve less than 3% normalized mean and root mean squared error for 2D and 3D simulation scenarios, and inference times that are two orders of magnitude faster than FEA. In contrast, relevant state-of-the-art methods face challenges with multi-dimensional output and dynamic input prediction. Furthermore, DeepFEA's robustness was demonstrated in a real-life biomedical scenario, confirming its suitability for accurate and efficient predictions of FEA simulations.

The retinal vasculature provides important clues in the diagnosis and monitoring of systemic diseases including hypertension and diabetes. The microvascular system is of primary involvement in such conditions, and the retina is the only anatomical site where the microvasculature can be directly observed. The objective assessment of retinal vessels has long been considered a surrogate biomarker for systemic vascular diseases, and with recent advancements in retinal imaging and computer vision technologies, this topic has become the subject of renewed attention. In this paper, we present a novel dataset, dubbed RAVIR, for the semantic segmentation of Retinal Arteries and Veins in Infrared Reflectance (IR) imaging. It enables the creation of deep learning-based models that distinguish extracted vessel type without extensive post-processing. We propose a novel deep learning-based methodology, denoted as SegRAVIR, for the semantic segmentation of retinal arteries and veins and the quantitative measurement of the widths of segmented vessels. Our extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of SegRAVIR and demonstrate its superior performance in comparison to state-of-the-art models. Additionally, we propose a knowledge distillation framework for the domain adaptation of RAVIR pretrained networks on color images. We demonstrate that our pretraining procedure yields new state-of-the-art benchmarks on the DRIVE, STARE, and CHASE_DB1 datasets. Dataset link: https://ravirdataset.github.io/data/

We explore the possibility to use physics-informed neural networks to drastically accelerate the solution of ordinary differential-algebraic equations that govern the power system dynamics. When it comes to transient stability assessment, the traditionally applied methods either carry a significant computational burden, require model simplifications, or use overly conservative surrogate models. Conventional neural networks can circumvent these limitations but are faced with high demand of high-quality training datasets, while they ignore the underlying governing equations. Physics-informed neural networks are different: they incorporate the power system differential algebraic equations directly into the neural network training and drastically reduce the need for training data. This paper takes a deep dive into the performance of physics-informed neural networks for power system transient stability assessment. Introducing a new neural network training procedure to facilitate a thorough comparison, we explore how physics-informed neural networks compare with conventional differential-algebraic solvers and classical neural networks in terms of computation time, requirements in data, and prediction accuracy. We illustrate the findings on the Kundur two-area system, and assess the opportunities and challenges of physics-informed neural networks to serve as a transient stability analysis tool, highlighting possible pathways to further develop this method.

Marmoset monkeys encode vital information in their calls and serve as a surrogate model for neuro-biologists to understand the evolutionary origins of human vocal communication. Traditionally analyzed with signal processing-based features, recent approaches have utilized self-supervised models pre-trained on human speech for feature extraction, capitalizing on their ability to learn a signal's intrinsic structure independently of its acoustic domain. However, the utility of such foundation models remains unclear for marmoset call analysis in terms of multi-class classification, bandwidth, and pre-training domain. This study assesses feature representations derived from speech and general audio domains, across pre-training bandwidths of 4, 8, and 16 kHz for marmoset call-type and caller classification tasks. Results show that models with higher bandwidth improve performance, and pre-training on speech or general audio yields comparable results, improving over a spectral baseline.

Two-dimensional (2D) Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, particularly Heteronuclear Single Quantum Coherence (HSQC) spectroscopy, plays a critical role in elucidating molecular structures, interactions, and electronic properties. However, accurately interpreting 2D NMR data remains labor-intensive and error-prone, requiring highly trained domain experts, especially for complex molecules. Machine Learning (ML) holds significant potential in 2D NMR analysis by learning molecular representations and recognizing complex patterns from data. However, progress has been limited by the lack of large-scale and high-quality annotated datasets. In this work, we introduce 2DNMRGym, the first annotated experimental dataset designed for ML-based molecular representation learning in 2D NMR. It includes over 22,000 HSQC spectra, along with the corresponding molecular graphs and SMILES strings. Uniquely, 2DNMRGym adopts a surrogate supervision setup: models are trained using algorithm-generated annotations derived from a previously validated method and evaluated on a held-out set of human-annotated gold-standard labels. This enables rigorous assessment of a model's ability to generalize from imperfect supervision to expert-level interpretation. We provide benchmark results using a series of 2D and 3D GNN and GNN transformer models, establishing a strong foundation for future work. 2DNMRGym supports scalable model training and introduces a chemically meaningful benchmark for evaluating atom-level molecular representations in NMR-guided structural tasks. Our data and code is open-source and available on Huggingface and Github.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in code-related tasks, such as code understanding and code generation. However, an equally important yet underexplored question is whether LLMs can serve as general-purpose surrogate code executors, to predict the output and behavior of a program without actually running it. To systematically investigate this capability, we introduce SURGE, a comprehensive benchmark covering eight key aspects: multi-language programming tasks, competition-level programming problems, repository-level code analysis, high-cost scientific computing, time-complexity-intensive algorithms, buggy code analysis, programs dependent on specific compilers or execution environments, and formal mathematical proof verification. We evaluate multiple open-source and proprietary LLMs on SURGE and conduct a scaling study to analyze the impact of model size and training data scale on surrogate execution accuracy. Additionally, we categorize model prediction errors and explore potential areas for improvement. Our findings indicate that while LLMs can predict code execution results in certain cases, they exhibit limitations in general-purpose surrogate execution. This study provides empirical insights into the feasibility of using LLMs as surrogate code executors. Code and dataset are released at https://github.com/Imbernoulli/SURGE.

High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is widely used for thermal-fluid design, but repeated CFD solves remain expensive for design optimization, uncertainty analysis, and digital-twin workflows. Recently, our team has demonstrated that a proper orthogonal decomposition and neural-network (POD-NN) surrogate can predict two-dimensional thermal fields in an electronics-cooling cold plate with large inference speedups while preserving physically interpretable modal structure. Reproducing and extending such workflows, however, typically requires custom scripts for parameter sampling, Fluent automation, data extraction, reduced-order model construction, neural-network training, validation, and prediction. This paper introduces CFDTwin, an open-source Python package and optional desktop graphical user interface (GUI) that packages these steps into a reusable workflow for ANSYS Fluent simulations. CFDTwin allows users to define simulation inputs and output quantities, generate design-of-experiments samples, run and resume Fluent batch simulations, train POD-NN surrogate models for scalar, surface-field, and cell-zone outputs, inspect validation metrics, and evaluate trained models at new design points without re-running Fluent. The same workflow is exposed through a scriptable Python API and a GUI, supporting reproducible studies, user-facing model validation, and automated design exploration. CFDTwin extends the prior POD-NN modeling study from a case-specific research implementation to a reusable research-software platform for CFD surrogate modeling and digital-twin development.

Data-driven surrogate models are increasingly adopted to accelerate vehicle design. However, open-source multi-fidelity datasets and empirical guidelines linking dataset size to model performance remain limited. This study investigates the relationship between training data size and prediction accuracy for a graph neural network (GNN) based surrogate model for aerodynamic field prediction. We release an open-source, multi-fidelity aerodynamic dataset for double-delta wings, comprising 2448 flow snapshots across 272 geometries evaluated at angles of attack from 11 (degree) to 19 (degree) at Ma=0.3 using both Vortex Lattice Method (VLM) and Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solvers. The geometries are generated using a nested Saltelli sampling scheme to support future dataset expansion and variance-based sensitivity analysis. Using this dataset, we conduct a preliminary empirical scaling study of the MF-VortexNet surrogate by constructing six training datasets with sizes ranging from 40 to 1280 snapshots and training models with 0.1 to 2.4 million parameters under a fixed training budget. We find that the test error decreases with data size with a power-law exponent of -0.6122, indicating efficient data utilization. Based on this scaling law, we estimate that the optimal sampling density is approximately eight samples per dimension in a d-dimensional design space. The results also suggest improved data utilization efficiency for larger surrogate models, implying a potential trade-off between dataset generation cost and model training budget.

In a model inversion (MI) attack, an adversary abuses access to a machine learning (ML) model to infer and reconstruct private training data. Remarkable progress has been made in the white-box and black-box setups, where the adversary has access to the complete model or the model's soft output respectively. However, there is very limited study in the most challenging but practically important setup: Label-only MI attacks, where the adversary only has access to the model's predicted label (hard label) without confidence scores nor any other model information. In this work, we propose LOKT, a novel approach for label-only MI attacks. Our idea is based on transfer of knowledge from the opaque target model to surrogate models. Subsequently, using these surrogate models, our approach can harness advanced white-box attacks. We propose knowledge transfer based on generative modelling, and introduce a new model, Target model-assisted ACGAN (T-ACGAN), for effective knowledge transfer. Our method casts the challenging label-only MI into the more tractable white-box setup. We provide analysis to support that surrogate models based on our approach serve as effective proxies for the target model for MI. Our experiments show that our method significantly outperforms existing SOTA Label-only MI attack by more than 15% across all MI benchmarks. Furthermore, our method compares favorably in terms of query budget. Our study highlights rising privacy threats for ML models even when minimal information (i.e., hard labels) is exposed. Our study highlights rising privacy threats for ML models even when minimal information (i.e., hard labels) is exposed. Our code, demo, models and reconstructed data are available at our project page: https://ngoc-nguyen-0.github.io/lokt/

Reliable large language models (LLMs) must not only produce accurate answers but also express confidence that faithfully reflects their probability of being correct. Such calibration is essential for identifying uncertain predictions and supporting reliable decision-making in real-world deployment. Recent studies incorporate calibration learning into reinforcement learning (RL), jointly optimizing answer correctness and verbalized confidence using ground-truth correctness supervision. However, their reliance on labeled data limits their applicability in practical test-time settings, where ground-truth labels are unavailable and calibration may need to adapt to newly encountered target tasks. To address this challenge, we propose Test-Time Calibration Learning (TTCL), a label-free framework that jointly adapts reasoning accuracy and verbalized confidence directly on unlabeled target-task data. Specifically, TTCL derives self-supervision signals for both correctness and calibration from multiple model-generated responses, enabling calibration learning at test time without ground-truth labels. Theoretical analysis further establishes TTCL as a bounded surrogate for the ideal calibration objective. Extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning and factual question answering demonstrate that TTCL consistently improves both accuracy and calibration across diverse models and tasks. On base models, TTCL achieves an average relative accuracy improvement of +40.13% and an ECE reduction of +70.80% across eight benchmarks. Moreover, TTCL can further improve both accuracy and calibration for already calibrated models under domain shift, particularly when source-domain calibration transfers poorly to target tasks. In the math-to-factQA setting, TTCL achieves an average relative accuracy gain of +20.35% and reduces ECE by +53.83%. The source code is released at https://github.com/tmlr-group/TTCL.

We study a persistent failure mode in multi-objective alignment for large language models (LLMs): training improves performance on only a subset of objectives while causing others to degrade. We formalize this phenomenon as cross-objective interference and conduct the first systematic study across classic scalarization algorithms, showing that interference is pervasive and exhibits strong model dependence. To explain this phenomenon, we derive a local covariance law showing that an objective improves at first order when its reward exhibits positive covariance with the scalarized score. We extend this analysis to clipped surrogate objectives used in modern alignment, demonstrating that the covariance law remains valid under mild conditions despite clipping. Building on this analysis, we propose Covariance Targeted Weight Adaptation (CTWA), a plug-and-play method that maintains positive covariance between objective rewards and the training signal to effectively mitigate cross-objective interference. Finally, we complement these local improvement conditions with a global convergence analysis under the Polyak--Łojasiewicz condition, establishing when non-convex scalarized optimization achieves global convergence and how cross-objective interference depends on specific model geometric properties.

We study the problem of classification with a reject option for a fixed predictor, applicable in natural language processing. We introduce a new problem formulation for this scenario, and an algorithm minimizing a new surrogate loss function. We provide a complete theoretical analysis of the surrogate loss function with a strong H-consistency guarantee. For evaluation, we choose the decontextualization task, and provide a manually-labelled dataset of 2mathord,000 examples. Our algorithm significantly outperforms the baselines considered, with a sim!!25% improvement in coverage when halving the error rate, which is only sim!! 3 % away from the theoretical limit.

When applying differential privacy to sensitive data, we can often improve performance using external information such as other sensitive data, public data, or human priors. We propose to use the learning-augmented algorithms (or algorithms with predictions) framework -- previously applied largely to improve time complexity or competitive ratios -- as a powerful way of designing and analyzing privacy-preserving methods that can take advantage of such external information to improve utility. This idea is instantiated on the important task of multiple quantile release, for which we derive error guarantees that scale with a natural measure of prediction quality while (almost) recovering state-of-the-art prediction-independent guarantees. Our analysis enjoys several advantages, including minimal assumptions about the data, a natural way of adding robustness, and the provision of useful surrogate losses for two novel ``meta" algorithms that learn predictions from other (potentially sensitive) data. We conclude with experiments on challenging tasks demonstrating that learning predictions across one or more instances can lead to large error reductions while preserving privacy.

Evasion attacks are a threat to machine learning models, where adversaries attempt to affect classifiers by injecting malicious samples. An alarming side-effect of evasion attacks is their ability to transfer among different models: this property is called transferability. Therefore, an attacker can produce adversarial samples on a custom model (surrogate) to conduct the attack on a victim's organization later. Although literature widely discusses how adversaries can transfer their attacks, their experimental settings are limited and far from reality. For instance, many experiments consider both attacker and defender sharing the same dataset, balance level (i.e., how the ground truth is distributed), and model architecture. In this work, we propose the DUMB attacker model. This framework allows analyzing if evasion attacks fail to transfer when the training conditions of surrogate and victim models differ. DUMB considers the following conditions: Dataset soUrces, Model architecture, and the Balance of the ground truth. We then propose a novel testbed to evaluate many state-of-the-art evasion attacks with DUMB; the testbed consists of three computer vision tasks with two distinct datasets each, four types of balance levels, and three model architectures. Our analysis, which generated 13K tests over 14 distinct attacks, led to numerous novel findings in the scope of transferable attacks with surrogate models. In particular, mismatches between attackers and victims in terms of dataset source, balance levels, and model architecture lead to non-negligible loss of attack performance.

In an industrial group like Safran, numerical simulations of physical phenomena are integral to most design processes. At Safran's corporate research center, we enhance these processes by developing fast and reliable surrogate models for various physics. We focus here on two technologies developed in recent years. The first is a physical reduced-order modeling method for non-linear structural mechanics and thermal analysis, used for calculating the lifespan of high-pressure turbine blades and performing heat analysis of high-pressure compressors. The second technology involves learning physics simulations with non-parameterized geometrical variability using classical machine learning tools, such as Gaussian process regression. Finally, we present our contributions to the open-source and open-data community.

This script offers an implementation-oriented introduction to deep learning methods for solving and estimating high-dimensional dynamic stochastic models in economics and finance. Its starting point is the curse of dimensionality: heterogeneous-agent economies, overlapping-generations models with aggregate risk, continuous-time models with occasionally binding constraints, climate-economy models, and macro-finance environments with many assets and frictions generate state and parameter spaces that strain classical tensor-product grid methods. The exposition is organized around four complementary methodologies. Deep Equilibrium Nets embed discrete-time equilibrium conditions into neural-network loss functions. Physics-Informed Neural Networks approximate continuous-time Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman, Kolmogorov forward, and related partial differential equations. Deep surrogate models provide fast, differentiable approximations to expensive structural models, while Gaussian processes add a probabilistic layer that quantifies approximation uncertainty; together they support estimation, sensitivity analysis, and constrained policy design. Gaussian-process-based dynamic programming, combined with active learning and dimension reduction, extends value-function iteration to very large continuous state spaces. Applications span representative-agent and international real business cycle models, overlapping-generations and heterogeneous-agent economies, continuous-time macro-finance, structural estimation by simulated method of moments, and climate economics under uncertainty. Companion notebooks in TensorFlow and PyTorch invite hands-on experimentation. These notes are a deliberately subjective and inevitably incomplete snapshot of a rapidly evolving field, aimed at equipping PhD students and researchers to engage with this frontier hands-on.

Joint embedding (JE) architectures have emerged as a promising avenue for acquiring transferable data representations. A key obstacle to using JE methods, however, is the inherent challenge of evaluating learned representations without access to a downstream task, and an annotated dataset. Without efficient and reliable evaluation, it is difficult to iterate on architectural and training choices for JE methods. In this paper, we introduce LiDAR (Linear Discriminant Analysis Rank), a metric designed to measure the quality of representations within JE architectures. Our metric addresses several shortcomings of recent approaches based on feature covariance rank by discriminating between informative and uninformative features. In essence, LiDAR quantifies the rank of the Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) matrix associated with the surrogate SSL task -- a measure that intuitively captures the information content as it pertains to solving the SSL task. We empirically demonstrate that LiDAR significantly surpasses naive rank based approaches in its predictive power of optimal hyperparameters. Our proposed criterion presents a more robust and intuitive means of assessing the quality of representations within JE architectures, which we hope facilitates broader adoption of these powerful techniques in various domains.

By reinterpreting a robust discriminative classifier as Energy-based Model (EBM), we offer a new take on the dynamics of adversarial training (AT). Our analysis of the energy landscape during AT reveals that untargeted attacks generate adversarial images much more in-distribution (lower energy) than the original data from the point of view of the model. Conversely, we observe the opposite for targeted attacks. On the ground of our thorough analysis, we present new theoretical and practical results that show how interpreting AT energy dynamics unlocks a better understanding: (1) AT dynamic is governed by three phases and robust overfitting occurs in the third phase with a drastic divergence between natural and adversarial energies (2) by rewriting the loss of TRadeoff-inspired Adversarial DEfense via Surrogate-loss minimization (TRADES) in terms of energies, we show that TRADES implicitly alleviates overfitting by means of aligning the natural energy with the adversarial one (3) we empirically show that all recent state-of-the-art robust classifiers are smoothing the energy landscape and we reconcile a variety of studies about understanding AT and weighting the loss function under the umbrella of EBMs. Motivated by rigorous evidence, we propose Weighted Energy Adversarial Training (WEAT), a novel sample weighting scheme that yields robust accuracy matching the state-of-the-art on multiple benchmarks such as CIFAR-10 and SVHN and going beyond in CIFAR-100 and Tiny-ImageNet. We further show that robust classifiers vary in the intensity and quality of their generative capabilities, and offer a simple method to push this capability, reaching a remarkable Inception Score (IS) and FID using a robust classifier without training for generative modeling. The code to reproduce our results is available at http://github.com/OmnAI-Lab/Robust-Classifiers-under-the-lens-of-EBM/ .

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to adapt models to maintain reliable performance on non-stationary test streams without requiring labeled data. Despite its empirical success, the learnability of TTA under non-stationary streams remains unexplored. A key challenge is the lack of a principled theoretical framework that simultaneously aligns with the TTA objective and captures both continuously evolving distribution shifts and intrinsic information constraints. To address this gap, we propose the first theoretical framework for studying the learnability of TTA and introduce (ε,δ)-Recovery Complexity and (ε,ρ)-TTA Learnability. Recovery complexity measures the post-shift time needed to maintain excess risk below a target level with high probability, and is further extended to TTA learnability, which measures the long-term reliability of TTA. Within this framework, we introduce a novel discrete surrogate for non-stationary test streams, enabling a unified and tractable analysis of both gradual and abrupt shifts. We derive order-wise matching lower and upper bounds on recovery complexity, revealing fundamental limits of TTA and an intrinsic adaptivity-information trade-off. These results provide unified learnability guarantees for TTA that complement regret-based analyses.

The existence of a plethora of language models makes the problem of selecting the best one for a custom task challenging. Most state-of-the-art methods leverage transformer-based models (e.g., BERT) or their variants. Training such models and exploring their hyperparameter space, however, is computationally expensive. Prior work proposes several neural architecture search (NAS) methods that employ performance predictors (e.g., surrogate models) to address this issue; however, analysis has been limited to homogeneous models that use fixed dimensionality throughout the network. This leads to sub-optimal architectures. To address this limitation, we propose a suite of heterogeneous and flexible models, namely FlexiBERT, that have varied encoder layers with a diverse set of possible operations and different hidden dimensions. For better-posed surrogate modeling in this expanded design space, we propose a new graph-similarity-based embedding scheme. We also propose a novel NAS policy, called BOSHNAS, that leverages this new scheme, Bayesian modeling, and second-order optimization, to quickly train and use a neural surrogate model to converge to the optimal architecture. A comprehensive set of experiments shows that the proposed policy, when applied to the FlexiBERT design space, pushes the performance frontier upwards compared to traditional models. FlexiBERT-Mini, one of our proposed models, has 3% fewer parameters than BERT-Mini and achieves 8.9% higher GLUE score. A FlexiBERT model with equivalent performance as the best homogeneous model achieves 2.6x smaller size. FlexiBERT-Large, another proposed model, achieves state-of-the-art results, outperforming the baseline models by at least 5.7% on the GLUE benchmark.

Public power-system datasets often lack electromagnetic transient (EMT) waveforms, inverter control dynamics, and diverse disturbance coverage, which limits their usefulness for training surrogate models and studying cyber-physical behavior in inverter-based microgrids. This paper presents a high-fidelity digital twin dataset generated from a MATLAB/Simulink EMT model of a low-voltage AC microgrid with ten inverter-based distributed generators. The dataset records synchronized three-phase PCC voltages and currents, per-DG active power, reactive power, and frequency, together with embedded scenario labels, producing 38 aligned channels sampled at Δt = 2~μs over T = 1~s (N = 500{,}001 samples) per scenario. Eleven operating and disturbance scenarios are included: normal operation, load step, voltage sag (temporary three-phase fault), load ramp, frequency ramp, DG trip, tie-line trip, reactive power step, single-line-to-ground faults, measurement noise injection, and communication delay. To ensure numerical stability without altering sequence length, invalid samples (NaN, Inf, and extreme outliers) are repaired using linear interpolation. Each scenario is further validated using system-level evidence from mean frequency, PCC voltage magnitude, total active power, voltage unbalance, and zero-sequence current to confirm physical observability and correct timing. The resulting dataset provides a consistent, labeled EMT benchmark for surrogate modeling, disturbance classification, robustness testing under noise and delay, and cyber-physical resilience analysis in inverter-dominated microgrids. The dataset and processing scripts will be released upon acceptance

Modern astrophysical research requires the integration of rapidly expanding scientific literature, heterogeneous observational data, and increasingly complex physical models. We introduce AstroGenesis (https://astrogenai.com), a domain-specific multi-agent AI framework that integrates literature retrieval, multiwavelength data access and analysis, theoretical modeling, and research ideation within a unified research environment.The current implementation focuses on blazar research, with specialized agents coordinated by a Supervisor Agent and Planner/Replanner architecture. These agents provide capabilities for retrieving and synthesizing literature, accessing and analyzing multiwavelength observations, performing physical modeling, and identifying research directions. A central component is the Theoretical Modeling Agent, which uses pretrained neural-network surrogate models to enable efficient broadband and multimessenger modeling through natural-language interaction. The framework provides natural-language access to science-ready multiwavelength observational data and retrieval-grounded literature through a multi-stage retrieval and ranking pipeline. The literature-retrieval system was evaluated using two benchmarks: a single-paper benchmark, in which each question targets one publication, and a multi-paper benchmark, in which questions may require evidence from several publications. At least one relevant publication was retrieved among the top five results for 76.6% of the single-paper questions and 79.2% of the multi-paper questions. Representative workflows demonstrate how literature, observational data, physical modeling, and hypothesis generation can be combined within traceable analyses. The framework is extensible to additional astrophysical domains, with the goal of streamlining research workflows and enabling efficient, connected, and reproducible scientific investigations.

Quantization-aware training (QAT) is essential for deploying large models under strict memory and latency constraints, yet achieving stable and robust optimization at ultra-low bitwidths remains challenging. Common approaches based on the straight-through estimator (STE) or soft quantizers often suffer from gradient mismatch, instability, or high computational overhead. As such, we propose StableQAT, a unified and efficient QAT framework that stabilizes training in ultra low-bit settings via a novel, lightweight, and theoretically grounded surrogate for backpropagation derived from a discrete Fourier analysis of the rounding operator. StableQAT strictly generalizes STE as the latter arises as a special case of our more expressive surrogate family, yielding smooth, bounded, and inexpensive gradients that improve QAT training performance and stability across various hyperparameter choices. In experiments, StableQAT exhibits stable and efficient QAT at 2-4 bit regimes, demonstrating improved training stability, robustness, and superior performance with negligible training overhead against standard QAT techniques. Our code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/StableQAT.

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as a replacement of the primary outcome i.e., in using the surrogate outcome, which can potentially be observed sooner, to make inference about the treatment effect on the long-term primary outcome. Very few of the available statistical methods to evaluate a surrogate are applicable to settings where both the surrogate and the primary outcome are time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. Methods that can handle this setting tend to require parametric assumptions or be limited to assessing only the restricted mean survival time. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approach to evaluate a censored surrogate outcome, such as time to progression, when the primary outcome is also a censored time-to-event outcome, such as time to death, and the treatment effect of interest is the difference in overall survival. Specifically, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained (PTE) by the censored surrogate outcome in this context, and estimate this proportion by defining and deriving an optimal transformation of the surrogate information. Our approach provides the added advantage of relaxed assumptions to guarantee that the true PTE is within (0,1), along with being model-free. Finite sample performance of our estimators are illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a real data application examining progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

In computational social science (CSS), researchers analyze documents to explain social and political phenomena. In most scenarios, CSS researchers first obtain labels for documents and then explain labels using interpretable regression analyses in the second step. One increasingly common way to annotate documents cheaply at scale is through large language models (LLMs). However, like other scalable ways of producing annotations, such surrogate labels are often imperfect and biased. We present a new algorithm for using imperfect annotation surrogates for downstream statistical analyses while guaranteeing statistical properties -- like asymptotic unbiasedness and proper uncertainty quantification -- which are fundamental to CSS research. We show that direct use of surrogate labels in downstream statistical analyses leads to substantial bias and invalid confidence intervals, even with high surrogate accuracy of 80-90%. To address this, we build on debiased machine learning to propose the design-based supervised learning (DSL) estimator. DSL employs a doubly-robust procedure to combine surrogate labels with a smaller number of high-quality, gold-standard labels. Our approach guarantees valid inference for downstream statistical analyses, even when surrogates are arbitrarily biased and without requiring stringent assumptions, by controlling the probability of sampling documents for gold-standard labeling. Both our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that DSL provides valid statistical inference while achieving root mean squared errors comparable to existing alternatives that focus only on prediction without inferential guarantees.

Offline optimization is an important task in numerous material engineering domains where online experimentation to collect data is too expensive and needs to be replaced by an in silico maximization of a surrogate of the black-box function. Although such a surrogate can be learned from offline data, its prediction might not be reliable outside the offline data regime, which happens when the surrogate has narrow prediction margin and is (therefore) sensitive to small perturbations of its parameterization. This raises the following questions: (1) how to regulate the sensitivity of a surrogate model; and (2) whether conditioning an offline optimizer with such less sensitive surrogate will lead to better optimization performance. To address these questions, we develop an optimizable sensitivity measurement for the surrogate model, which then inspires a sensitivity-informed regularizer that is applicable to a wide range of offline optimizers. This development is both orthogonal and synergistic to prior research on offline optimization, which is demonstrated in our extensive experiment benchmark.

In computer-aided engineering design, the goal of a designer is to find an optimal design on a given requirement using the numerical simulator in loop with an optimization method. In this design optimization process, a good design optimization process is one that can reduce the time from inception to design. In this work, we take a class of design problem, that is computationally cheap to evaluate but has high dimensional design space. In such cases, traditional surrogate-based optimization does not offer any benefits. In this work, we propose an alternative way to use ML model to surrogate the design process that formulates the search problem as an inverse problem and can save time by finding the optimal design or at least a good initial seed design for optimization. By using this trained surrogate model with the traditional optimization method, we can get the best of both worlds. We call this as Surrogate Assisted Optimization (SAO)- a hybrid approach by mixing ML surrogate with the traditional optimization method. Empirical evaluations of propeller design problems show that a better efficient design can be found in fewer evaluations using SAO.

Surrogate models are necessary to optimize meaningful quantities in physical dynamics as their recursive numerical resolutions are often prohibitively expensive. It is mainly the case for fluid dynamics and the resolution of Navier-Stokes equations. However, despite the fast-growing field of data-driven models for physical systems, reference datasets representing real-world phenomena are lacking. In this work, we develop AirfRANS, a dataset for studying the two-dimensional incompressible steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations over airfoils at a subsonic regime and for different angles of attacks. We also introduce metrics on the stress forces at the surface of geometries and visualization of boundary layers to assess the capabilities of models to accurately predict the meaningful information of the problem. Finally, we propose deep learning baselines on four machine learning tasks to study AirfRANS under different constraints for generalization considerations: big and scarce data regime, Reynolds number, and angle of attack extrapolation.

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) tests single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers across the genome to localize the underlying causal variant of a trait. Because causal variants are seldom observed directly, a surrogate model based on genotyped markers are widely considered. Although many methods estimating the parameters of the surrogate model have been proposed, the connection between the surrogate model and the true causal model is yet investigated. In this work, we establish the connection between the surrogate model and the true causal model. The connection shows that population structure is accounted in GWAS by modelling the variant of interest and not the trait. Such observation explains how environmental confounding can be partially corrected using genetic covariates and why the previously claimed connection between PC correction and linear mixed models is incorrect.

Neural networks are a commonly used approach to replace physical models with computationally cheap surrogates. Parametric uncertainty quantification can be included in training, assuming that an accurate prior distribution of the model parameters is available. Here we study the common opposite situation, where direct screening or random sampling of model parameters leads to exhaustive training times and evaluations at unphysical parameter values. Our solution is to decouple uncertainty quantification from network architecture. Instead of sampling network weights, we introduce the model-parameter distribution as an input to network training via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In this way, the surrogate achieves the same uncertainty quantification as the underlying physical model, but with substantially reduced computation time. The approach is fully agnostic with respect to the neural network choice. In our examples, we present a quantile emulator for prediction and a novel autoencoder-based ODE network emulator that can flexibly estimate different trajectory paths corresponding to different ODE model parameters. Moreover, we present a mathematical analysis that provides a transparent way to relate potential performance loss to measurable distribution mismatch.

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular, surrogate model-based approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. Given a surrogate model, the next location to expensively evaluate is chosen via maximisation of a cheap-to-query acquisition function. We present an epsilon-greedy procedure for Bayesian optimisation in batch settings in which the black-box function can be evaluated multiple times in parallel. Our epsilon-shotgun algorithm leverages the model's prediction, uncertainty, and the approximated rate of change of the landscape to determine the spread of batch solutions to be distributed around a putative location. The initial target location is selected either in an exploitative fashion on the mean prediction, or -- with probability epsilon -- from elsewhere in the design space. This results in locations that are more densely sampled in regions where the function is changing rapidly and in locations predicted to be good (i.e close to predicted optima), with more scattered samples in regions where the function is flatter and/or of poorer quality. We empirically evaluate the epsilon-shotgun methods on a range of synthetic functions and two real-world problems, finding that they perform at least as well as state-of-the-art batch methods and in many cases exceed their performance.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

Traditional scientific discovery relies on an iterative hypothesise-experiment-refine cycle that has driven progress for centuries, but its intuitive, ad-hoc implementation often wastes resources, yields inefficient designs, and misses critical insights. This tutorial presents Bayesian Optimisation (BO), a principled probability-driven framework that formalises and automates this core scientific cycle. BO uses surrogate models (e.g., Gaussian processes) to model empirical observations as evolving hypotheses, and acquisition functions to guide experiment selection, balancing exploitation of known knowledge and exploration of uncharted domains to eliminate guesswork and manual trial-and-error. We first frame scientific discovery as an optimisation problem, then unpack BO's core components, end-to-end workflows, and real-world efficacy via case studies in catalysis, materials science, organic synthesis, and molecule discovery. We also cover critical technical extensions for scientific applications, including batched experimentation, heteroscedasticity, contextual optimisation, and human-in-the-loop integration. Tailored for a broad audience, this tutorial bridges AI advances in BO with practical natural science applications, offering tiered content to empower cross-disciplinary researchers to design more efficient experiments and accelerate principled scientific discovery.

Neural architecture search (NAS) faces a challenge in balancing the exploration of expressive, broad search spaces that enable architectural innovation with the need for efficient evaluation of architectures to effectively search such spaces. We investigate surrogate model training for improving search in highly expressive NAS search spaces based on context-free grammars. We show that i) surrogate models trained either using zero-cost-proxy metrics and neural graph features (GRAF) or by fine-tuning an off-the-shelf LM have high predictive power for the performance of architectures both within and across datasets, ii) these surrogates can be used to filter out bad architectures when searching on novel datasets, thereby significantly speeding up search and achieving better final performances, and iii) the surrogates can be further used directly as the search objective for huge speed-ups.

The lack of freely available standardized datasets represents an aggravating factor during the development and testing the performance of novel computational techniques in exposure assessment and dosimetry research. This hinders progress as researchers are required to generate numerical data (field, power and temperature distribution) anew using simulation software for each exposure scenario. Other than being time consuming, this approach is highly susceptible to errors that occur during the configuration of the electromagnetic model. To address this issue, in this paper, the limited available data on the incident power density and resultant maximum temperature rise on the skin surface considering various steady-state exposure scenarios at 10-90 GHz have been statistically modeled. The synthetic data have been sampled from the fitted statistical multivariate distribution with respect to predetermined dosimetric constraints. We thus present a comprehensive and open-source dataset compiled of the high-fidelity numerical data considering various exposures to a realistic source. Furthermore, different surrogate models for predicting maximum temperature rise on the skin surface were fitted based on the synthetic dataset. All surrogate models were tested on the originally available data where satisfactory predictive performance has been demonstrated. A simple technique of combining quadratic polynomial and tensor-product spline surrogates, each operating on its own cluster of data, has achieved the lowest mean absolute error of 0.058 {\deg}C. Therefore, overall experimental results indicate the validity of the proposed synthetic dataset.

We apply augmentations to our dataset to enhance the quality of our predictions and make our final models more resilient to noisy data and domain drifts. Yet the question remains, how are these augmentations going to perform with different hyper-parameters? In this study we evaluate the sensitivity of augmentations with regards to the model's hyper parameters along with their consistency and influence by performing a Local Surrogate (LIME) interpretation on the impact of hyper-parameters when different augmentations are applied to a machine learning model. We have utilized Linear regression coefficients for weighing each augmentation. Our research has proved that there are some augmentations which are highly sensitive to hyper-parameters and others which are more resilient and reliable.

Macro placement significantly affects a chip's post-route performance, power, and area (PPA). Most placement methods optimize half-perimeter wirelength (HPWL) as the primary objective. However, recent benchmarking shows a near-zero correlation between HPWL and post-route timing metrics such as the worst negative slack (WNS) and total negative slack (TNS). As a result, all six evaluated artificial intelligence (AI) placers degraded PPA relative to the hierarchical baseline. Recent efforts have tried to train cross-stage predictors to close this gap. However, existing methods focus on macro-only representations and use pre-route metrics as training labels. A label fidelity study of ten circuits at four design flow stages reveals that HPWL and pre-route timing poorly reflect final post-route timing rankings. In contrast, post-global-routing achieves the best balance between final timing fidelity and label generation cost-effectiveness. Based on this finding, PPAPlace is a timing-driven differentiable surrogate predicting post-route PPA from macro and standard-cell placements. The surrogate is a dual-stream predictor that combines graph attention over the chip netlist with spatial convolution over the placement grid. It is trained on post-global-routing labels. The predicted WNS and TNS gradients flow end-to-end back to cell coordinates. PPAPlace exploits these gradients in two ways: as a co-objective injected into an analytical placer's optimization loop (PPAPlace-CoOpt), and as a post-placement refinement step that adjusts macro positions via projected gradient descent (PPAPlace-Refine). On five ChiPBench test circuits excluded from training, PPAPlace improves average WNS and TNS by 22\% and 51\% over the hierarchical baseline while preserving power and routability, using the same predictor without test-circuit retraining. Code is available at https://github.com/ValleyC/PPAPlace.

Neural networks excel as function approximators, but their complexity often obscures the types of functions they learn, making it difficult to explain their behavior. To address this, the linearity score lambda(f) is introduced, a simple and interpretable diagnostic that quantifies how well a regression network's output can be mimicked by a linear model. Defined as the R^2 value between the network's predictions and those of a trained linear surrogate, lambda(f) measures linear decodability: the extent to which the network's behavior aligns with a structurally simple model. This framework is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets, using dataset-specific networks and surrogates. High lambda(f) scores reliably indicate alignment with the network's outputs; however, they do not guarantee accuracy with respect to the ground truth. These results highlight the risk of using surrogate fidelity as a proxy for model understanding, especially in high-stakes regression tasks.

Building local surrogates to accelerate stationary point searches on potential energy surfaces spans decades of effort. Done correctly, surrogates can reduce the number of expensive electronic structure evaluations by roughly an order of magnitude while preserving the accuracy of the underlying theory, with the gain depending on oracle cost, search distance, and the availability of analytical forces. We present a unified Bayesian optimization view of minimization, single-point saddle searches, and double-ended path searches: all three share one six-step surrogate loop and differ only in the inner optimization target and the acquisition criterion. The framework uses Gaussian process regression with derivative observations, inverse-distance kernels, and active learning, and we develop optional extensions for production use, including farthest-point sampling with the Earth Mover's Distance, MAP regularization, an adaptive trust radius, and random Fourier features for scaling. Accompanying pedagogical Rust code demonstrates that all three applications use the same Bayesian optimization loop, bridging the gap between theoretical formulation and practical execution.

Recent years have seen a surge in deep learning approaches to accelerate numerical solvers, which provide faithful but computationally intensive simulations of the physical world. These deep surrogates are generally trained in a supervised manner from limited amounts of data slowly generated by the same solver they intend to accelerate. We propose an open-source framework that enables the online training of these models from a large ensemble run of simulations. It leverages multiple levels of parallelism to generate rich datasets. The framework avoids I/O bottlenecks and storage issues by directly streaming the generated data. A training reservoir mitigates the inherent bias of streaming while maximizing GPU throughput. Experiment on training a fully connected network as a surrogate for the heat equation shows the proposed approach enables training on 8TB of data in 2 hours with an accuracy improved by 47% and a batch throughput multiplied by 13 compared to a traditional offline procedure.

We introduce a dataset of approximately 10,000 Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations of steady, incompressible, two-dimensional subsonic flow around downforce-generating NACA 4-digit airfoils, targeting aerodynamic regimes relevant to automotive and motorsport applications (openly available on https://huggingface.co/datasets/ratiolabs/downforce-airfoils). Using this resource, we study geometry-conditioned neural surrogates for fast flow prediction, comparing neural fields with neural ODEs, MLPs with graph-based models, and several spectral geometry-conditioning methods. We further propose Airfoil2Vec, an airfoil-specific spectral geometry encoder that combines the joint contour spectrum with separate spectral representations of camber and thickness, for predicting continuous pressure and velocity fields. We evaluate generalization through angle-of-attack interpolation, interpolation and extrapolation to unseen NACA 4-digit geometries, and generalization to unseen non-NACA airfoils. The resulting surrogate accurately captures aerodynamic quantities and qualitative flow features while providing orders-of-magnitude speedups over conventional computational fluid dynamics.

Neural surrogates promise large speedups over classical solvers for physical dynamics but fail silently at sharp dynamical events such as shocks, fronts, and contact. We present hybrid neural world models for physical dynamics: a recipe for training and deploying multi-horizon surrogates in physical state space, where a single network with continuous horizon conditioning is trained with direct supervision against textbook reference solvers to predict any future state at horizon T in one forward pass. Although no part of the training data, loss function, or architecture supervises discontinuity location, the trained surrogate encodes it implicitly, recoverable from its forward passes alone as a per-trajectory error map that concentrates on shocks, fronts, and contacts, and stays small elsewhere. The map is competitive with or better than standard label-free baselines including deep ensembles, learned error heads, gradient-magnitude indicators, and locally-adaptive conformal prediction, while using only a single trained network and requiring no calibration set or governing-equation knowledge. The recipe supports two operating points. Mode 1 runs the surrogate alone for maximum throughput, with same-hardware CPU speedups of 26x to 72x against textbook solvers on the PDE environments. Mode 2 uses the error map to gate a reference-solver fallback, deferring uncertain trajectories and roughly halving the surrogate's residual error at the default operating point. The recipe applies without modification across reaction-diffusion, compressible Euler, and rigid-body collision dynamics.

Advancements in high-computing devices increase the necessity for improved and new understanding and development of smart manufacturing factories. Discrete-event models with simulators have been shown to be critical to architect, designing, building, and operating the manufacturing of semiconductor chips. The diffusion, implantation, and lithography machines have intricate processes due to their feedforward and feedback connectivity. The dataset collected from simulations of the factory models holds the promise of generating valuable machine-learning models. As surrogate data-based models, their executions are highly efficient compared to the physics-based counterpart models. For the development of surrogate models, it is beneficial to have publicly available benchmark simulation models that are grounded in factory models that have concise structures and accurate behaviors. Hence, in this research, a dataset is devised and constructed based on a benchmark model of an Intel semiconductor fabrication factory. The model is formalized using the Parallel Discrete-Event System Specification and executed using the DEVS-Suite simulator. The time series dataset is constructed using discrete-event time trajectories. This dataset is further analyzed and used to develop baseline univariate and multivariate machine learning models. The dataset can also be utilized in the machine learning community for behavioral analysis based on formalized and scalable component-based discrete-event models and simulations.

Neural surrogates offer a promising route to accelerating computationally expensive simulations governed by partial differential equations across science and industry. Their practical deployment, however, is limited by unreliable predictions under out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions. We develop a solver-coupled surrogate-Newton framework that uses surrogate predictions as high-quality initial guesses for Newton-Krylov iterations, thereby combining rapid global flow-field prediction with high-accuracy numerical convergence at the terminal stage. On an OOD benchmark comprising geometries sampled from actual transonic airfoil optimization trajectories, the framework lowers the median residual L_2 ratio by over seven orders of magnitude while substantially reducing field and aerodynamic errors. In practical supercritical airfoil optimization, it improves online prediction reliability while achieving a 15.5-fold generation-level speedup over CFD. We further test the framework's extension to three dimensions using a flying-wing dataset. Together, these studies demonstrate the potential of surrogate-Newton coupling to deliver accurate, efficient and scalable steady CFD across industrial workflows.

Numerical relativity (NR) simulations provide the most faithful representation of the gravitational waves (GWs) emitted by binary black hole (BBH) systems during merger. In the context of GW astronomy, tasks such as parameter estimation can require vast numbers of waveform evaluations per second across the entire parameter space. Since performing full NR simulations for each evaluation is not computationally feasible, interpolating methods for existing NR waveforms, known as surrogate models, have been developed with marked success. In this paper, we build on our previous work to introduce methods to train a fast surrogate model based on neural networks in order to generate BBH merger waveforms, including the fundamental (2,2) mode, as well as the (3,3), (2,1), (4,4), (3,2), (4,3) and (5,5) higher-order modes. Applying a pretraining step on approximant data before fine-tuning on NR data allows us to smooth out the parameter space, and making use of the parallelization ability of GPUs to project the NR waveforms in the inclination-phase (ι, ϕ) sphere during training allows the fitting of all the explored modes simultaneously. The developed surrogate model, DANSur\_HM, achieves average mismatches of the order of 10^{-4}, with the worst mismatch at 2.5times10^{-3}, and achieves throughput above 6times10^5 waveforms/second on an NVIDIA V100 GPU. Parameter estimation tests confirm the usefulness of the inclusion of higher modes.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

In agentic scientific machine learning (SciML), large language model (LLM) agents can discover surrogate models and select one by an automated score, typically an error metric. A low error, however, does not establish that the predicted fields satisfy the physics that matter for mechanics, such as boundary conditions, superposition, stiffness scaling, or causality. We introduce Physics-Audited Agentic SciML (PA-SciML), a verification-first workflow for agentic SciML discovery. The workflow fixes a scoring evaluator before search, derives reviewable machine-checkable physics requirements, checks each trained candidate on its outputs, and separately searches prescribed input ranges or measured load-history spans for high-violation cases without reference solution fields. A surrogate is reported as verified only under the stated checks. When enabled, the workflow also adds advisory numerical probes before training and tests one modeling change at a time to record which isolated edits are associated with score gains before reuse. In the reported computational-solid-mechanics numerical examples, the static elasticity run selects a surrogate with lower validation error than the error-only baseline while both selected models pass the common linear-elastic checks. In the transient elastodynamics run, an error-only baseline with similar mean error fails a stricter causality check by responding to future parts of the loading history, while the selected surrogate passes the stated checks. The main distinction is per-candidate physics evidence on predicted fields, not a richer aggregate score.

Mechanistic interpretability (MI) requires full access to model internals, yet the APIs for most widely deployed language models at best expose log-probabilities over output tokens. This creates a surrogate problem: when do measurements made on open models allow us to make claims about a closed model? We evaluate surrogate fidelity at the prediction, attribution, and representation levels. For binary classification tasks, log-odds provide an API-compatible scalar readout of the model's representation space, and leave-one-out attributions provide insight into model behavior. Across eleven models spanning four families (Llama, Qwen, GPT, and Gemini), we find that prediction fidelity substantially overstates attribution fidelity: models that agree on what the answer is often disagree on why. We document an access-validity inversion: white-box signals like attention patterns and perturbation magnitudes are highly stable across models but only weakly predictive of causal attributions, which black-box input ablations capture by design. Mechanistic insight does not automatically transfer to closed targets, and prediction-level agreement is insufficient to warrant such transfer. Code and results are available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/surrogate.

This paper studies the black-box optimization task which aims to find the maxima of a black-box function using a static set of its observed input-output pairs. This is often achieved via learning and optimizing a surrogate function with that offline data. Alternatively, it can also be framed as an inverse modeling task that maps a desired performance to potential input candidates that achieve it. Both approaches are constrained by the limited amount of offline data. To mitigate this limitation, we introduce a new perspective that casts offline optimization as a distributional translation task. This is formulated as learning a probabilistic bridge transforming an implicit distribution of low-value inputs (i.e., offline data) into another distribution of high-value inputs (i.e., solution candidates). Such probabilistic bridge can be learned using low- and high-value inputs sampled from synthetic functions that resemble the target function. These synthetic functions are constructed as the mean posterior of multiple Gaussian processes fitted with different parameterizations on the offline data, alleviating the data bottleneck. The proposed approach is evaluated on an extensive benchmark comprising most recent methods, demonstrating significant improvement and establishing a new state-of-the-art performance. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/ROOT.

An established way to improve the transferability of black-box evasion attacks is to craft the adversarial examples on an ensemble-based surrogate to increase diversity. We argue that transferability is fundamentally related to uncertainty. Based on a state-of-the-art Bayesian Deep Learning technique, we propose a new method to efficiently build a surrogate by sampling approximately from the posterior distribution of neural network weights, which represents the belief about the value of each parameter. Our extensive experiments on ImageNet, CIFAR-10 and MNIST show that our approach improves the success rates of four state-of-the-art attacks significantly (up to 83.2 percentage points), in both intra-architecture and inter-architecture transferability. On ImageNet, our approach can reach 94% of success rate while reducing training computations from 11.6 to 2.4 exaflops, compared to an ensemble of independently trained DNNs. Our vanilla surrogate achieves 87.5% of the time higher transferability than three test-time techniques designed for this purpose. Our work demonstrates that the way to train a surrogate has been overlooked, although it is an important element of transfer-based attacks. We are, therefore, the first to review the effectiveness of several training methods in increasing transferability. We provide new directions to better understand the transferability phenomenon and offer a simple but strong baseline for future work.

We propose constrained causal Bayesian optimization (cCBO), an approach for finding interventions in a known causal graph that optimize a target variable under some constraints. cCBO first reduces the search space by exploiting the graph structure and, if available, an observational dataset; and then solves the restricted optimization problem by modelling target and constraint quantities using Gaussian processes and by sequentially selecting interventions via a constrained expected improvement acquisition function. We propose different surrogate models that enable to integrate observational and interventional data while capturing correlation among effects with increasing levels of sophistication. We evaluate cCBO on artificial and real-world causal graphs showing successful trade off between fast convergence and percentage of feasible interventions.

To plan and optimize energy storage demands that account for Li-ion battery aging dynamics, techniques need to be developed to diagnose battery internal states accurately and rapidly. This study seeks to reduce the computational resources needed to determine a battery's internal states by replacing physics-based Li-ion battery models -- such as the single-particle model (SPM) and the pseudo-2D (P2D) model -- with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) surrogate. The surrogate model makes high-throughput techniques, such as Bayesian calibration, tractable to determine battery internal parameters from voltage responses. This manuscript is the first of a two-part series that introduces PINN surrogates of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference (i.e., state-of-health diagnostics). In this first part, a method is presented for constructing a PINN surrogate of the SPM. A multi-fidelity hierarchical training, where several neural nets are trained with multiple physics-loss fidelities is shown to significantly improve the surrogate accuracy when only training on the governing equation residuals. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/pinnstripes). The techniques used to develop a PINN surrogate of the SPM are extended in Part II for the PINN surrogate for the P2D battery model, and explore the Bayesian calibration capabilities of both surrogates.

Scientific discovery often involves optimising expensive-to-evaluate objectives over vast, structured, and open-ended hypothesis spaces, such as molecules, protein sequences, and computer programs. Generative models such as large language models (LLMs) provide expressive priors over such spaces, but their likelihoods and self-assessments are unreliable proxies for the objectives and calibrated epistemic uncertainty, especially for novel candidates outside the observed data distribution. We introduce the Large Discovery Model (LDM), an empirically grounded recurrent architecture that couples a generative model with a Bayesian non-parametric reward surrogate model. The generative model proposes and refines candidate designs, while the surrogate predicts their performance and quantifies uncertainty, yielding an uncertainty-aware value that guides candidate generation, refinement, and selection. The discovery memory and the surrogate model are continually updated as each new experimental observation arrives. We evaluate LDM on three scenarios spanning different design modalities and objectives, including neural-network training, antibody design, and molecular optimisation. Compared to LLM-only reflection or traditional statistical search across these domains, LDM achieves a 2.4times greater reduction in validation BPB, an 18.2% relative decrease in binding energy, and more than 60% relative gains in molecular multi-objective performance. These results suggests that LDM could serve as a general-purpose discovery engine for effective search over open-ended hypothesis spaces.

Gravitational-wave approximants are essential for gravitational-wave astronomy, allowing the coverage binary black hole parameter space for inference or match filtering without costly numerical relativity (NR) simulations, but generally trading some accuracy for computational efficiency. To reduce this trade-off, NR surrogate models can be constructed using interpolation within NR waveform space. We present a 2-stage training approach for neural network-based NR surrogate models. Initially trained on approximant-generated waveforms and then fine-tuned with NR data, these dual-stage artificial neural surrogate (DANSur) models offer rapid and competitively accurate waveform generation, generating millions in under 20ms on a GPU while keeping mean mismatches with NR around 10^{-4}. Implemented in the bilby framework, we show they can be used for parameter estimation tasks.

Machine learning based surrogate models offer researchers powerful tools for accelerating simulation-based workflows. However, as standard datasets in this space often cover small classes of physical behavior, it can be difficult to evaluate the efficacy of new approaches. To address this gap, we introduce the Well: a large-scale collection of datasets containing numerical simulations of a wide variety of spatiotemporal physical systems. The Well draws from domain experts and numerical software developers to provide 15TB of data across 16 datasets covering diverse domains such as biological systems, fluid dynamics, acoustic scattering, as well as magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of extra-galactic fluids or supernova explosions. These datasets can be used individually or as part of a broader benchmark suite. To facilitate usage of the Well, we provide a unified PyTorch interface for training and evaluating models. We demonstrate the function of this library by introducing example baselines that highlight the new challenges posed by the complex dynamics of the Well. The code and data is available at https://github.com/PolymathicAI/the_well.

The assessment of safety performance plays a pivotal role in the development and deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). A common approach involves designing testing scenarios based on prior knowledge of CAVs (e.g., surrogate models), conducting tests in these scenarios, and subsequently evaluating CAVs' safety performances. However, substantial differences between CAVs and the prior knowledge can significantly diminish the evaluation efficiency. In response to this issue, existing studies predominantly concentrate on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process. Yet, these methods have limitations in their applicability to high-dimensional scenarios. To overcome this challenge, we develop an adaptive testing environment that bolsters evaluation robustness by incorporating multiple surrogate models and optimizing the combination coefficients of these surrogate models to enhance evaluation efficiency. We formulate the optimization problem as a regression task utilizing quadratic programming. To efficiently obtain the regression target via reinforcement learning, we propose the dense reinforcement learning method and devise a new adaptive policy with high sample efficiency. Essentially, our approach centers on learning the values of critical scenes displaying substantial surrogate-to-real gaps. The effectiveness of our method is validated in high-dimensional overtaking scenarios, demonstrating that our approach achieves notable evaluation efficiency.

We propose a new uncertainty estimator for gradient-free optimisation of black-box simulators using deep generative surrogate models. Optimisation of these simulators is especially challenging for stochastic simulators and higher dimensions. To address these issues, we utilise a deep generative surrogate approach to model the black box response for the entire parameter space. We then leverage this knowledge to estimate the proposed uncertainty based on the Wasserstein distance - the Wasserstein uncertainty. This approach is employed in a posterior agnostic gradient-free optimisation algorithm that minimises regret over the entire parameter space. A series of tests were conducted to demonstrate that our method is more robust to the shape of both the black box function and the stochastic response of the black box than state-of-the-art methods, such as efficient global optimisation with a deep Gaussian process surrogate.

The task of locating first order saddle points on high-dimensional surfaces describing the variation of energy as a function of atomic coordinates is an essential step for identifying the mechanism and estimating the rate of thermally activated events within the harmonic approximation of transition state theory. When combined directly with electronic structure calculations, the number of energy and atomic force evaluations needed for convergence is a primary issue. Here, we describe an efficient implementation of Gaussian process regression (GPR) acceleration of the minimum mode following method where a dimer is used to estimate the lowest eigenmode of the Hessian. A surrogate energy surface is constructed and updated after each electronic structure calculation. The method is applied to a test set of 500 molecular reactions previously generated by Hermez and coworkers [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 18, 6974 (2022)]. An order of magnitude reduction in the number of electronic structure calculations needed to reach the saddle point configurations is obtained by using the GPR compared to the dimer method. Despite the wide range in stiffness of the molecular degrees of freedom, the calculations are carried out using Cartesian coordinates and are found to require similar number of electronic structure calculations as an elaborate internal coordinate method implemented in the Sella software package. The present implementation of the GPR surrogate model in C++ is efficient enough for the wall time of the saddle point searches to be reduced in 3 out of 4 cases even though the calculations are carried out at a low Hartree-Fock level.

Neural operator surrogates (NO) approximate PDE solutions orders of magnitude faster than numerical solvers, but suffer from spectral bias: high-frequency content is systematically attenuated, limiting reliability where fine-scale structure matters. Sparse sensor measurements of the field are often available too, offering pointwise accuracy without spectral distortion but covering only a small fraction of the domain. We address this by treating NO predictions as auxiliary observations in a diffusion posterior sampling framework. Our method, FreqNO-DPS (https://github.com/niccoloperrone/FreqNO-DPS), combines an unconditional score-based diffusion prior, trained on high-fidelity simulations, with diffusion posterior sampling (DPS) conditioned on sparse observations and guided by a frozen neural operator. Naive integration reintroduces the surrogate's spectral bias; we resolve this with a closed-form, spectrally shaped guidance score that weights the surrogate by its frequency-dependent accuracy and needs no denoiser backpropagation. A distribution-free analysis bounds the approximation error across the frequency-diffusion-time plane and shows the guidance's frequency dependence is preserved regardless of distributional assumptions. On 3D elastic wavefield prediction at 5% and 2% sensor coverage, the method reaches near-zero spectral bias across all bands, where both the surrogate and sensor-only DPS show systematic high-frequency attenuation. Isotropic guidance, the natural baseline, improves pointwise accuracy but carries the bias into the posterior nearly intact, confirming that frequency-dependent calibration is essential, not merely beneficial. The framework needs only paired surrogate/reference data and exploits no problem-specific structure beyond the residual's approximate spectral diagonality, verifiable for new surrogates via the coherence diagnostic we provide.

The aim of this study is to develop surrogate models for quick, accurate prediction of thrust forces generated through flapping fin propulsion for given operating conditions and fin geometries. Different network architectures and configurations are explored to model the training data separately for the lead fin and rear fin of a tandem fin setup. We progressively improve the data representation of the input parameter space for model predictions. The models are tested on three unseen fin geometries and the predictions validated with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. Finally, the orders of magnitude gains in computational performance of these surrogate models, compared to experimental and CFD runs, vs their tradeoff with accuracy is discussed within the context of this tandem fin configuration.

Generative AI models have made significant progress in automating the creation of 3D shapes, which has the potential to transform car design. In engineering design and optimization, evaluating engineering metrics is crucial. To make generative models performance-aware and enable them to create high-performing designs, surrogate modeling of these metrics is necessary. However, the currently used representations of three-dimensional (3D) shapes either require extensive computational resources to learn or suffer from significant information loss, which impairs their effectiveness in surrogate modeling. To address this issue, we propose a new two-dimensional (2D) representation of 3D shapes. We develop a surrogate drag model based on this representation to verify its effectiveness in predicting 3D car drag. We construct a diverse dataset of 9,070 high-quality 3D car meshes labeled by drag coefficients computed from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to train our model. Our experiments demonstrate that our model can accurately and efficiently evaluate drag coefficients with an R^2 value above 0.84 for various car categories. Moreover, the proposed representation method can be generalized to many other product categories beyond cars. Our model is implemented using deep neural networks, making it compatible with recent AI image generation tools (such as Stable Diffusion) and a significant step towards the automatic generation of drag-optimized car designs. We have made the dataset and code publicly available at https://decode.mit.edu/projects/dragprediction/.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

With the increasing computational costs associated with deep learning, automated hyperparameter optimization methods, strongly relying on black-box Bayesian optimization (BO), face limitations. Freeze-thaw BO offers a promising grey-box alternative, strategically allocating scarce resources incrementally to different configurations. However, the frequent surrogate model updates inherent to this approach pose challenges for existing methods, requiring retraining or fine-tuning their neural network surrogates online, introducing overhead, instability, and hyper-hyperparameters. In this work, we propose FT-PFN, a novel surrogate for Freeze-thaw style BO. FT-PFN is a prior-data fitted network (PFN) that leverages the transformers' in-context learning ability to efficiently and reliably do Bayesian learning curve extrapolation in a single forward pass. Our empirical analysis across three benchmark suites shows that the predictions made by FT-PFN are more accurate and 10-100 times faster than those of the deep Gaussian process and deep ensemble surrogates used in previous work. Furthermore, we show that, when combined with our novel acquisition mechanism (MFPI-random), the resulting in-context freeze-thaw BO method (ifBO), yields new state-of-the-art performance in the same three families of deep learning HPO benchmarks considered in prior work.

We consider minimizing functions for which it is expensive to compute the (possibly stochastic) gradient. Such functions are prevalent in reinforcement learning, imitation learning and adversarial training. Our target optimization framework uses the (expensive) gradient computation to construct surrogate functions in a target space (e.g. the logits output by a linear model for classification) that can be minimized efficiently. This allows for multiple parameter updates to the model, amortizing the cost of gradient computation. In the full-batch setting, we prove that our surrogate is a global upper-bound on the loss, and can be (locally) minimized using a black-box optimization algorithm. We prove that the resulting majorization-minimization algorithm ensures convergence to a stationary point of the loss. Next, we instantiate our framework in the stochastic setting and propose the SSO algorithm, which can be viewed as projected stochastic gradient descent in the target space. This connection enables us to prove theoretical guarantees for SSO when minimizing convex functions. Our framework allows the use of standard stochastic optimization algorithms to construct surrogates which can be minimized by any deterministic optimization method. To evaluate our framework, we consider a suite of supervised learning and imitation learning problems. Our experiments indicate the benefits of target optimization and the effectiveness of SSO.

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential) Neural Posterior Estimation, (Sequential) Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood and variants of Approximate Bayesian Computation -- can yield overconfident posterior approximations, which makes them unreliable for scientific use cases and falsificationist inquiry. Failing to address this issue may reduce the range of applicability of simulation-based inference. For this reason, we argue that research efforts should be made towards theoretical and methodological developments of conservative approximate inference algorithms and present research directions towards this objective. In this regard, we show empirical evidence that ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations and mitigates the issue.

Policy-based reinforcement learning algorithms are widely used in various fields. Among them, mainstream policy optimization algorithms such as TRPO and PPO introduce importance sampling into policy iteration, which allows the reuse of historical data. However, this can also lead to a high variance of the surrogate objective and indirectly affects the stability and convergence of the algorithm. In this paper, we first derived an upper bound of the surrogate objective variance, which can grow quadratically with the increase of the surrogate objective. Next, we proposed the dropout technique to avoid the excessive increase of the surrogate objective variance caused by importance sampling. Then, we introduced a general reinforcement learning framework applicable to mainstream policy optimization methods, and applied the dropout technique to the PPO algorithm to obtain the D-PPO variant. Finally, we conduct comparative experiments between D-PPO and PPO algorithms in the Atari 2600 environment, and the results show that D-PPO achieved significant performance improvements compared to PPO, and effectively limited the excessive increase of the surrogate objective variance during training.

Every call to an LLM classification endpoint produces a labeled input-output pair already retained in production logs. These pairs constitute a free, growing training set: a lightweight surrogate trained on them can absorb a significant portion of future traffic at near-zero marginal inference cost. The open questions are when the surrogate is reliable enough to deploy, what it handles versus defers, and how that boundary evolves as data accumulates. We introduce TRACER (Trace-based Adaptive Cost-Efficient Routing), an open-source system that trains ML surrogates on an LLM's own production traces and governs deployment through a parity gate: the surrogate is activated only when its agreement with the LLM exceeds a user-specified threshold α. To make the routing boundary transparent, TRACER generates interpretability artifacts describing which input regions the surrogate handles, where it plateaus, and why it defers. On a 77-class intent benchmark with a Sonnet 4.6 teacher, TRACER achieves 83-100% surrogate coverage depending on the quality target α; on a 150-class benchmark, the surrogate fully replaces the teacher. On a natural language inference task, the parity gate correctly refuses deployment because the embedding representation cannot support reliable separation. The system is available as open-source software.

Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable performance over finite datasets, yet whether the scores over the fixed benchmarks can sufficiently indicate the model's performance in the real world is still in discussion. In reality, an ideal robust model will probably behave similarly to the oracle (e.g., the human users), thus a good evaluation protocol is probably to evaluate the models' behaviors in comparison to the oracle. In this paper, we introduce a new robustness measurement that directly measures the image classification model's performance compared with a surrogate oracle (i.e., a foundation model). Besides, we design a simple method that can accomplish the evaluation beyond the scope of the benchmarks. Our method extends the image datasets with new samples that are sufficiently perturbed to be distinct from the ones in the original sets, but are still bounded within the same image-label structure the original test image represents, constrained by a foundation model pretrained with a large amount of samples. As a result, our new method will offer us a new way to evaluate the models' robustness performance, free of limitations of fixed benchmarks or constrained perturbations, although scoped by the power of the oracle. In addition to the evaluation results, we also leverage our generated data to understand the behaviors of the model and our new evaluation strategies.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by extrapolation from the available evidence at the time. This includes collected trial data and relevant external data. However, relevant external data are typically available as averages only, for example from trials on alternative treatments reported in the literature. Here we report on such an example from a drug development for wet age-related macular degeneration. This disease is the leading cause of severe vision loss in the elderly. While current treatment options are efficacious, they are also a substantial burden for the patient. Hence, new treatments are under development which need to be compared against existing treatments. The general statistical problem this leads to is meta-analysis, which addresses the question of how we can combine datasets collected under different conditions. Bayesian methods have long been used to achieve partial pooling. Here we consider the challenge when the model of interest is complex (hierarchical and nonlinear) and one dataset is given as raw data while the second dataset is given as averages only. In such a situation, common meta-analytic methods can only be applied when the model is sufficiently simple for analytic approaches. When the model is too complex, for example nonlinear, an analytic approach is not possible. We provide a Bayesian solution by using simulation to approximately reconstruct the likelihood of the external summary and allowing the parameters in the model to vary under the different conditions. We first evaluate our approach using fake-data simulations and then report results for the drug development program that motivated this research.

Resided at the intersection of multi-fidelity optimization (MFO) and Bayesian optimization (BO), MF BO has found a niche in solving expensive engineering design optimization problems, thanks to its advantages in incorporating physical and mathematical understandings of the problems, saving resources, addressing exploitation-exploration trade-off, considering uncertainty, and processing parallel computing. The increasing number of works dedicated to MF BO suggests the need for a comprehensive review of this advanced optimization technique. In this paper, we survey recent developments of two essential ingredients of MF BO: Gaussian process (GP) based MF surrogates and acquisition functions. We first categorize the existing MF modeling methods and MFO strategies to locate MF BO in a large family of surrogate-based optimization and MFO algorithms. We then exploit the common properties shared between the methods from each ingredient of MF BO to describe important GP-based MF surrogate models and review various acquisition functions. By doing so, we expect to provide a structured understanding of MF BO. Finally, we attempt to reveal important aspects that require further research for applications of MF BO in solving intricate yet important design optimization problems, including constrained optimization, high-dimensional optimization, optimization under uncertainty, and multi-objective optimization.

In mechanical structures like airplanes, cars and houses, noise is generated and transmitted through vibrations. To take measures to reduce this noise, vibrations need to be simulated with expensive numerical computations. Deep learning surrogate models present a promising alternative to classical numerical simulations as they can be evaluated magnitudes faster, while trading-off accuracy. To quantify such trade-offs systematically and foster the development of methods, we present a benchmark on the task of predicting the vibration of harmonically excited plates. The benchmark features a total of 12,000 plate geometries with varying forms of beadings, material, boundary conditions, load position and sizes with associated numerical solutions. To address the benchmark task, we propose a new network architecture, named Frequency-Query Operator, which predicts vibration patterns of plate geometries given a specific excitation frequency. Applying principles from operator learning and implicit models for shape encoding, our approach effectively addresses the prediction of highly variable frequency response functions occurring in dynamic systems. To quantify the prediction quality, we introduce a set of evaluation metrics and evaluate the method on our vibrating-plates benchmark. Our method outperforms DeepONets, Fourier Neural Operators and more traditional neural network architectures and can be used for design optimization. Code, dataset and visualizations: https://github.com/ecker-lab/Learning_Vibrating_Plates

Neural surrogates for partial differential equations (PDEs) have become popular due to their potential to quickly simulate physics. With a few exceptions, neural surrogates generally treat the forward evolution of time-dependent PDEs as a black box by directly predicting the next state. While this is a natural and easy framework for applying neural surrogates, it can be an over-simplified and rigid framework for predicting physics. In this work, we propose an alternative framework in which neural solvers predict the temporal derivative and an ODE integrator forwards the solution in time, which has little overhead and is broadly applicable across model architectures and PDEs. We find that by simply changing the training target and introducing numerical integration during inference, neural surrogates can gain accuracy and stability. Predicting temporal derivatives also allows models to not be constrained to a specific temporal discretization, allowing for flexible time-stepping during inference or training on higher-resolution PDE data. Lastly, we investigate why this new framework can be beneficial and in what situations does it work well.

Data-driven surrogate models are an alternative to numerical homogenization of heterogeneous materials. In this contribution, a supervised learning approach is presented for predicting effective Lamé parameters of hyperelastic composites from low-dimensional microstructural descriptors. The data set is based on previously published numerical homogenization results for ensembles of two-phase stochastic microstructures generated by planar Boolean models, covering variations of inclusion shape, phase contrast, and area fraction; see Brändel, Brands, Maike, Rheinbach, Schröder, Schwarz and Stoyan (2022). A neural network is trained on combinations of scalar and curve-valued statistical descriptors, including the area fraction, a derived scalar shape descriptor τ, the two-point correlation function S_2(r), and the lineal-path function ell(z). Additional data representing limiting cases of the parameter space are incorporated to stabilize training and improve extrapolation behavior. The surrogate is evaluated by leave-one-grain-type-out cross-validation in order to assess generalization to unseen grain geometries. Numerical results demonstrate that additional descriptors can reduce relative errors. A predictor trained with τ and S_2(r) provides a compact representation with good quantitative accuracy and regular dense response behavior. Adding the lineal-path function ell(z) further reduces the error at the available data points, indicating that it is a promising additional descriptor; however, dense post-training response evaluations show that improved pointwise accuracy does not automatically guarantee physically admissible behavior between sampled parameter values. This motivates future work on physically constrained surrogate models, loss formulations, bounded output parametrizations, and a more systematic representation of curve-valued geometric descriptors.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

The spatiotemporal resolution of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) plays important roles in the mathematical description of the world's physical phenomena. In general, scientists and engineers solve PDEs numerically by the use of computationally demanding solvers. Recently, deep learning algorithms have emerged as a viable alternative for obtaining fast solutions for PDEs. Models are usually trained on synthetic data generated by solvers, stored on disk and read back for training. This paper advocates that relying on a traditional static dataset to train these models does not allow the full benefit of the solver to be used as a data generator. It proposes an open source online training framework for deep surrogate models. The framework implements several levels of parallelism focused on simultaneously generating numerical simulations and training deep neural networks. This approach suppresses the I/O and storage bottleneck associated with disk-loaded datasets, and opens the way to training on significantly larger datasets. Experiments compare the offline and online training of four surrogate models, including state-of-the-art architectures. Results indicate that exposing deep surrogate models to more dataset diversity, up to hundreds of GB, can increase model generalization capabilities. Fully connected neural networks, Fourier Neural Operator (FNO), and Message Passing PDE Solver prediction accuracy is improved by 68%, 16% and 7%, respectively.

Two benchmark problems for linear radiation transport and derived from the literature are presented in detail and several quantities of interest are defined. High-resolution simulations are computed using standard, robust numerical methods and implemented using HPC resources. The goal of these simulations is to provide reference solutions for new discretization approaches, to aid in the development of multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification and optimization algorithms, to provide data for training surrogates models. The code used to perform the simulations and post-process the data is publicly available, as is the raw data that used to generate the results presented in the paper.

In Federated Learning (FL) and many other distributed training frameworks, collaborators can hold their private data locally and only share the network weights trained with the local data after multiple iterations. Gradient inversion is a family of privacy attacks that recovers data from its generated gradients. Seemingly, FL can provide a degree of protection against gradient inversion attacks on weight updates, since the gradient of a single step is concealed by the accumulation of gradients over multiple local iterations. In this work, we propose a principled way to extend gradient inversion attacks to weight updates in FL, thereby better exposing weaknesses in the presumed privacy protection inherent in FL. In particular, we propose a surrogate model method based on the characteristic of two-dimensional gradient flow and low-rank property of local updates. Our method largely boosts the ability of gradient inversion attacks on weight updates containing many iterations and achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance. Additionally, our method runs up to 100times faster than the SOTA baseline in the common FL scenario. Our work re-evaluates and highlights the privacy risk of sharing network weights. Our code is available at https://github.com/JunyiZhu-AI/surrogate_model_extension.

Data-driven surrogate models improve the efficiency of simulating continuous dynamical systems, yet their autoregressive rollouts are often limited by instability and spectral blow-up. While global regularization techniques can enforce contractive dynamics, they uniformly damp high-frequency features, introducing a contraction-dissipation dilemma. Furthermore, long-horizon trajectory optimization methods that explicitly correct drift are bottlenecked by memory constraints. In this work, we propose Jacobian-Adaptive Weighting for Stability (JAWS), a probabilistic regularization strategy designed to mitigate these limitations. By framing operator learning as Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation with spatially heteroscedastic uncertainty, JAWS dynamically modulates the regularization strength based on local physical complexity. This allows the model to enforce contraction in smooth regions to suppress noise, while relaxing constraints near singular features to preserve gradients, effectively realizing a behavior similar to numerical shock-capturing schemes. Experiments demonstrate that this spatially-adaptive prior serves as an effective spectral pre-conditioner, which reduces the base operator's burden of handling high-frequency instabilities. This reduction enables memory-efficient, short-horizon trajectory optimization to match or exceed the long-term accuracy of long-horizon baselines. Evaluated on the 1D viscous Burgers' equation, our hybrid approach improves long-term stability, shock fidelity, and out-of-distribution generalization while reducing training computational costs.

Among adversarial attacks against sequential recommender systems, model extraction attacks represent a method to attack sequential recommendation models without prior knowledge. Existing research has primarily concentrated on the adversary's execution of black-box attacks through data-free model extraction. However, a significant gap remains in the literature concerning the development of surrogate models by adversaries with access to few-shot raw data (10\% even less). That is, the challenge of how to construct a surrogate model with high functional similarity within the context of few-shot data scenarios remains an issue that requires resolution.This study addresses this gap by introducing a novel few-shot model extraction framework against sequential recommenders, which is designed to construct a superior surrogate model with the utilization of few-shot data. The proposed few-shot model extraction framework is comprised of two components: an autoregressive augmentation generation strategy and a bidirectional repair loss-facilitated model distillation procedure. Specifically, to generate synthetic data that closely approximate the distribution of raw data, autoregressive augmentation generation strategy integrates a probabilistic interaction sampler to extract inherent dependencies and a synthesis determinant signal module to characterize user behavioral patterns. Subsequently, bidirectional repair loss, which target the discrepancies between the recommendation lists, is designed as auxiliary loss to rectify erroneous predictions from surrogate models, transferring knowledge from the victim model to the surrogate model effectively. Experiments on three datasets show that the proposed few-shot model extraction framework yields superior surrogate models.

Current neural architecture search (NAS) strategies focus only on finding a single, good, architecture. They offer little insight into why a specific network is performing well, or how we should modify the architecture if we want further improvements. We propose a Bayesian optimisation (BO) approach for NAS that combines the Weisfeiler-Lehman graph kernel with a Gaussian process surrogate. Our method optimises the architecture in a highly data-efficient manner: it is capable of capturing the topological structures of the architectures and is scalable to large graphs, thus making the high-dimensional and graph-like search spaces amenable to BO. More importantly, our method affords interpretability by discovering useful network features and their corresponding impact on the network performance. Indeed, we demonstrate empirically that our surrogate model is capable of identifying useful motifs which can guide the generation of new architectures. We finally show that our method outperforms existing NAS approaches to achieve the state of the art on both closed- and open-domain search spaces.

We introduced a novel method to solve Bayesian inverse problems governed by PDE equations with a hybrid two-level MCMC where we took advantage of the AI surrogate model speed and the accuracy of numerical models. We show theoretically the potential to solve Bayesian inverse problems accurately with only a small number of numerical samples when the AI surrogate model error is small. Several numerical experiment results are included which demonstrates the advantage of the hybrid method.

Machine-learning surrogates accelerate physical simulation, but lower prediction error need not coincide with lower error in physically relevant flow statistics. We examine this question for flow around a NACA4418 airfoil using paired computational-fluid-dynamics simulations and experimental particle-image-velocimetry measurements. A mean-preserving input intervention removes velocity fluctuations from selected regions of observed flow histories. Across four neural operators, removing fluctuations from the most energetic 10% of valid observed cells changes forecasts more than equal-area random removal. Because the masks are not matched for removed fluctuation energy, this contrast measures sensitivity, not independent evidence of physical importance. Separately, a CNO has lower velocity-field error but substantially higher two-component fluctuation-energy error than the reference on both analysis subsets. An output attenuation stress test also demonstrates disagreement between benchmark errors and domain-summed fluctuation energy. These single-benchmark results motivate reporting complementary physical diagnostics alongside aggregate prediction scores; they do not establish counterfactual physical correctness.

Optimization problems with nonlinear cost functions and combinatorial constraints appear in many real-world applications but remain challenging to solve efficiently compared to their linear counterparts. To bridge this gap, we propose SurCo that learns linear text{Sur}rogate costs which can be used in existing text{Co}mbinatorial solvers to output good solutions to the original nonlinear combinatorial optimization problem. The surrogate costs are learned end-to-end with nonlinear loss by differentiating through the linear surrogate solver, combining the flexibility of gradient-based methods with the structure of linear combinatorial optimization. We propose three SurCo variants: SurCo-zero for individual nonlinear problems, SurCo-prior for problem distributions, and SurCo-hybrid to combine both distribution and problem-specific information. We give theoretical intuition motivating SurCo, and evaluate it empirically. Experiments show that SurCo finds better solutions faster than state-of-the-art and domain expert approaches in real-world optimization problems such as embedding table sharding, inverse photonic design, and nonlinear route planning.

High-resolution imaging is crucial for enhancing visual clarity and enabling precise computer-assisted guidance in minimally invasive surgery (MIS). Despite the increasing adoption of 4K endoscopic systems, there remains a significant gap in publicly available native 4K datasets tailored specifically for robotic-assisted MIS. We introduce SurgiSR4K, the first publicly accessible surgical imaging and video dataset captured at a native 4K resolution, representing realistic conditions of robotic-assisted procedures. SurgiSR4K comprises diverse visual scenarios including specular reflections, tool occlusions, bleeding, and soft tissue deformations, meticulously designed to reflect common challenges faced during laparoscopic and robotic surgeries. This dataset opens up possibilities for a broad range of computer vision tasks that might benefit from high resolution data, such as super resolution (SR), smoke removal, surgical instrument detection, 3D tissue reconstruction, monocular depth estimation, instance segmentation, novel view synthesis, and vision-language model (VLM) development. SurgiSR4K provides a robust foundation for advancing research in high-resolution surgical imaging and fosters the development of intelligent imaging technologies aimed at enhancing performance, safety, and usability in image-guided robotic surgeries.

Bayesian optimization has attracted huge attention from diverse research areas in science and engineering, since it is capable of efficiently finding a global optimum of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. In general, a probabilistic regression model is widely used as a surrogate function to model an explicit distribution over function evaluations given an input to estimate and a training dataset. Beyond the probabilistic regression-based methods, density ratio estimation-based Bayesian optimization has been suggested in order to estimate a density ratio of the groups relatively close and relatively far to a global optimum. Developing this line of research further, supervised classifiers are employed to estimate a class probability for the two groups instead of a density ratio. However, the supervised classifiers used in this strategy are prone to be overconfident for known knowledge on global solution candidates. Supposing that we have access to unlabeled points, e.g., predefined fixed-size pools, we propose density ratio estimation-based Bayesian optimization with semi-supervised learning to solve this challenge. Finally, we show the empirical results of our methods and several baseline methods in two distinct scenarios with unlabeled point sampling and a fixed-size pool, and analyze the validity of our methods in diverse experiments.

Protein fitness optimization involves finding a protein sequence that maximizes desired quantitative properties in a combinatorially large design space of possible sequences. Recent developments in steering protein generative models (e.g diffusion models, language models) offer a promising approach. However, by and large, past studies have optimized surrogate rewards and/or utilized large amounts of labeled data for steering, making it unclear how well existing methods perform and compare to each other in real-world optimization campaigns where fitness is measured by low-throughput wet-lab assays. In this study, we explore fitness optimization using small amounts (hundreds) of labeled sequence-fitness pairs and comprehensively evaluate strategies such as classifier guidance and posterior sampling for guiding generation from different discrete diffusion models of protein sequences. We also demonstrate how guidance can be integrated into adaptive sequence selection akin to Thompson sampling in Bayesian optimization, showing that plug-and-play guidance strategies offer advantages compared to alternatives such as reinforcement learning with protein language models.

We present a generic framework for creating differentially private versions of any hypothesis test in a black-box way. We analyze the resulting tests analytically and experimentally. Most crucially, we show good practical performance for small data sets, showing that at epsilon = 1 we only need 5-6 times as much data as in the fully public setting. We compare our work to the one existing framework of this type, as well as to several individually-designed private hypothesis tests. Our framework is higher power than other generic solutions and at least competitive with (and often better than) individually-designed tests.

Atmospheric retrieval determines the properties of an atmosphere based on its measured spectrum. The low signal-to-noise ratio of exoplanet observations require a Bayesian approach to determine posterior probability distributions of each model parameter, given observed spectra. This inference is computationally expensive, as it requires many executions of a costly radiative transfer (RT) simulation for each set of sampled model parameters. Machine learning (ML) has recently been shown to provide a significant reduction in runtime for retrievals, mainly by training inverse ML models that predict parameter distributions, given observed spectra, albeit with reduced posterior accuracy. Here we present a novel approach to retrieval by training a forward ML surrogate model that predicts spectra given model parameters, providing a fast approximate RT simulation that can be used in a conventional Bayesian retrieval framework without significant loss of accuracy. We demonstrate our method on the emission spectrum of HD 189733 b and find good agreement with a traditional retrieval from the Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code (Bhattacharyya coefficients of 0.9843--0.9972, with a mean of 0.9925, between 1D marginalized posteriors). This accuracy comes while still offering significant speed enhancements over traditional RT, albeit not as much as ML methods with lower posterior accuracy. Our method is ~9x faster per parallel chain than BART when run on an AMD EPYC 7402P central processing unit (CPU). Neural-network computation using an NVIDIA Titan Xp graphics processing unit is 90--180x faster per chain than BART on that CPU.

We propose an extension of Thompson sampling to optimization problems over function spaces where the objective is a known functional of an unknown operator's output. We assume that queries to the operator (such as running a high-fidelity simulator or physical experiment) are costly, while functional evaluations on the operator's output are inexpensive. Our algorithm employs a sample-then-optimize approach using neural operator surrogates. This strategy avoids explicit uncertainty quantification by treating trained neural operators as approximate samples from a Gaussian process (GP) posterior. We derive regret bounds and theoretical results connecting neural operators with GPs in infinite-dimensional settings. Experiments benchmark our method against other Bayesian optimization baselines on functional optimization tasks involving partial differential equations of physical systems, demonstrating better sample efficiency and significant performance gains.

Expensive multi-objective optimization problems (EMOPs) are common in real-world scenarios where evaluating objective functions is costly and involves extensive computations or physical experiments. Current Pareto set learning methods for such problems often rely on surrogate models like Gaussian processes to approximate the objective functions. These surrogate models can become fragmented, resulting in numerous small uncertain regions between explored solutions. When using acquisition functions such as the Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), these uncertain regions can turn into pseudo-local optima, complicating the search for globally optimal solutions. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach called SVH-PSL, which integrates Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) with Hypernetworks for efficient Pareto set learning. Our method addresses the issues of fragmented surrogate models and pseudo-local optima by collectively moving particles in a manner that smooths out the solution space. The particles interact with each other through a kernel function, which helps maintain diversity and encourages the exploration of underexplored regions. This kernel-based interaction prevents particles from clustering around pseudo-local optima and promotes convergence towards globally optimal solutions. Our approach aims to establish robust relationships between trade-off reference vectors and their corresponding true Pareto solutions, overcoming the limitations of existing methods. Through extensive experiments across both synthetic and real-world MOO benchmarks, we demonstrate that SVH-PSL significantly improves the quality of the learned Pareto set, offering a promising solution for expensive multi-objective optimization problems.

Alignment in large language models (LLMs) is used to enforce guidelines such as safety. Yet, alignment fails in the face of jailbreak attacks that modify inputs to induce unsafe outputs. In this paper, we present and evaluate a method to assess the robustness of LLM alignment. We observe that alignment embeds a safety classifier in the target model that is responsible for deciding between refusal and compliance. We seek to extract an approximation of this classifier, called a surrogate classifier, from the LLM. We develop an algorithm for identifying candidate classifiers from subsets of the LLM model. We evaluate the degree to which the candidate classifiers approximate the model's embedded classifier in benign (F1 score) and adversarial (using surrogates in a white-box attack) settings. Our evaluation shows that the best candidates achieve accurate agreement (an F1 score above 80%) using as little as 20% of the model architecture. Further, we find attacks mounted on the surrogate models can be transferred with high accuracy. For example, a surrogate using only 50% of the Llama 2 model achieved an attack success rate (ASR) of 70%, a substantial improvement over attacking the LLM directly, where we only observed a 22% ASR. These results show that extracting surrogate classifiers is a viable (and highly effective) means for modeling (and therein addressing) the vulnerability of aligned models to jailbreaking attacks.

Neural surrogates and operator networks for solving partial differential equation (PDE) problems have attracted significant research interest in recent years. However, most existing approaches are limited in their ability to generalize solutions across varying non-parametric geometric domains. In this work, we address this challenge in the context of Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) bottle buckling analysis, a representative packaging design problem conventionally solved using computationally expensive finite element analysis (FEA). We introduce a hybrid DeepONet-Transolver framework that simultaneously predicts nodal displacement fields and the time evolution of reaction forces during top load compression. Our methodology is evaluated on two families of bottle geometries parameterized by two and four design variables. Training data is generated using nonlinear FEA simulations in Abaqus for 254 unique designs per family. The proposed framework achieves mean relative L^{2} errors of 2.5-13% for displacement fields and approximately 2.4% for time-dependent reaction forces for the four-parameter bottle family. Point-wise error analyses further show absolute displacement errors on the order of 10^{-4}-10^{-3}, with the largest discrepancies confined to localized geometric regions. Importantly, the model accurately captures key physical phenomena, such as buckling behavior, across diverse bottle geometries. These results highlight the potential of our framework as a scalable and computationally efficient surrogate, particularly for multi-task predictions in computational mechanics and applications requiring rapid design evaluation.

This paper introduces a novel surrogate modeling framework for aerodynamic applications based on Neural Fields. The proposed approach, MARIO (Modulated Aerodynamic Resolution Invariant Operator), addresses non parametric geometric variability through an efficient shape encoding mechanism and exploits the discretization-invariant nature of Neural Fields. It enables training on significantly downsampled meshes, while maintaining consistent accuracy during full-resolution inference. These properties allow for efficient modeling of diverse flow conditions, while reducing computational cost and memory requirements compared to traditional CFD solvers and existing surrogate methods. The framework is validated on two complementary datasets that reflect industrial constraints. First, the AirfRANS dataset consists in a two-dimensional airfoil benchmark with non-parametric shape variations. Performance evaluation of MARIO on this case demonstrates an order of magnitude improvement in prediction accuracy over existing methods across velocity, pressure, and turbulent viscosity fields, while accurately capturing boundary layer phenomena and aerodynamic coefficients. Second, the NASA Common Research Model features three-dimensional pressure distributions on a full aircraft surface mesh, with parametric control surface deflections. This configuration confirms MARIO's accuracy and scalability. Benchmarking against state-of-the-art methods demonstrates that Neural Field surrogates can provide rapid and accurate aerodynamic predictions under the computational and data limitations characteristic of industrial applications.

This paper puts forward an integrated microstructure design methodology that replaces the common existing design approaches: 1) reconstruction of microstructures, 2) analyzing and quantifying material properties, and 3) inverse design of materials using deep-learned generative and surrogate models. The long-standing issue of microstructure reconstruction is well addressed in this study using a new class of state-of-the-art generative model, the diffusion-based generative model (DGM). Moreover, the conditional formulation of DGM for guidance to the embedded desired material properties with a transformer-based attention mechanism enables the inverse design of multifunctional composites. A convolutional neural network (CNN)-based surrogate model is utilized to analyze the nonlinear material behavior to facilitate the prediction of material properties for building microstructure-property linkages. Combined, these generative and surrogate models enable large data processing and database construction that is often not affordable with resource-intensive finite element method (FEM)-based direct numerical simulation (DNS) and iterative reconstruction methods. An example case is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, which is designing mechanoluminescence (ML) particulate composites made of europium and dysprosium ions. The results show that the inversely-designed multiple ML microstructure candidates with the proposed generative and surrogate models meet the multiple design requirements (e.g., volume fraction, elastic constant, and light sensitivity). The evaluation of the generated samples' quality and the surrogate models' performance using appropriate metrics are also included. This assessment demonstrates that the proposed integrated methodology offers an end-to-end solution for practical material design applications.

Bayesian parameter inference is useful to improve Li-ion battery diagnostics and can help formulate battery aging models. However, it is computationally intensive and cannot be easily repeated for multiple cycles, multiple operating conditions, or multiple replicate cells. To reduce the computational cost of Bayesian calibration, numerical solvers for physics-based models can be replaced with faster surrogates. A physics-informed neural network (PINN) is developed as a surrogate for the pseudo-2D (P2D) battery model calibration. For the P2D surrogate, additional training regularization was needed as compared to the PINN single-particle model (SPM) developed in Part I. Both the PINN SPM and P2D surrogate models are exercised for parameter inference and compared to data obtained from a direct numerical solution of the governing equations. A parameter inference study highlights the ability to use these PINNs to calibrate scaling parameters for the cathode Li diffusion and the anode exchange current density. By realizing computational speed-ups of 2250x for the P2D model, as compared to using standard integrating methods, the PINN surrogates enable rapid state-of-health diagnostics. In the low-data availability scenario, the testing error was estimated to 2mV for the SPM surrogate and 10mV for the P2D surrogate which could be mitigated with additional data.

Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) is concerned with the development of learned emulators of physical systems governed by partial differential equations (PDE). In application domains such as weather forecasting, molecular dynamics, and inverse design, ML-based surrogate models are increasingly used to augment or replace inefficient and often non-differentiable numerical simulation algorithms. While a number of ML-based methods for approximating the solutions of PDEs have been proposed in recent years, they typically do not adapt to the parameters of the PDEs, making it difficult to generalize to PDE parameters not seen during training. We propose a Channel Attention mechanism guided by PDE Parameter Embeddings (CAPE) component for neural surrogate models and a simple yet effective curriculum learning strategy. The CAPE module can be combined with neural PDE solvers allowing them to adapt to unseen PDE parameters. The curriculum learning strategy provides a seamless transition between teacher-forcing and fully auto-regressive training. We compare CAPE in conjunction with the curriculum learning strategy using a popular PDE benchmark and obtain consistent and significant improvements over the baseline models. The experiments also show several advantages of CAPE, such as its increased ability to generalize to unseen PDE parameters without large increases inference time and parameter count.

Machine learning-based surrogate models have emerged as a powerful tool to accelerate simulation-driven scientific workflows. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by the lack of large-scale, diverse, and standardized datasets tailored to physics-based simulations. While existing initiatives provide valuable contributions, many are limited in scope-focusing on specific physics domains, relying on fragmented tooling, or adhering to overly simplistic datamodels that restrict generalization. To address these limitations, we introduce PLAID (Physics-Learning AI Datamodel), a flexible and extensible framework for representing and sharing datasets of physics simulations. PLAID defines a unified standard for describing simulation data and is accompanied by a library for creating, reading, and manipulating complex datasets across a wide range of physical use cases (gitlab.com/drti/plaid). We release six carefully crafted datasets under the PLAID standard, covering structural mechanics and computational fluid dynamics, and provide baseline benchmarks using representative learning methods. Benchmarking tools are made available on Hugging Face, enabling direct participation by the community and contribution to ongoing evaluation efforts (huggingface.co/PLAIDcompetitions).

Reproducible and analytically robust research findings are essential to scientific progress, but evaluating these properties typically requires costly manual effort. We investigate whether LLM agents can help automate reproduction and robustness analysis, using a medical case study grounded in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, a widely used U.S. cancer registry underlying tens of thousands of published studies. First, we introduce SEER-Repro, a benchmark of 20 published SEER-based papers together with the data and resources required to reproduce their findings. Second, we create an AI agent that successfully reproduces 77.4% of 2,190 atomic claims, while providing executable baselines for further analysis. Third, we develop an agentic analysis pipeline to test the robustness of the medical findings by identifying analytical choices underlying each finding, proposing defensible alternatives, and rerunning the analysis to determine whether those choices affect the conclusion. Across published papers in SEER-Repro, our pipeline identifies potentially consequential analytical choices in 9.5% of fully reproduced findings and flags them for expert review. These results show how LLM agents can support scientific review by reproducing findings, systematically testing their robustness, and directing expert attention toward potentially consequential analytical choices.

Neural surrogates for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) have the potential to greatly enhance engineering innovation through accelerating simulation. However, the primary limitation for neural surrogates is the lack of generalization to geometries and applications beyond the training set, which is significant given the diversity of engineering scenarios. Currently, this is addressed by generating a new dataset for a specific application; however, this requires running costly numerical solvers. In this work, we take a step toward addressing this by studying neural surrogates trained across different geometries, boundary conditions, and fidelities. We find that cross-domain pretraining improves zero- and few-shot performance on held-out datasets relative to both training from scratch and transferring from domain-specific experts. In particular, finetuning a pretrained, cross-domain model can achieve 2-3x lower errors at the same sample size and use 8x fewer samples to achieve the same error, compared to training from scratch. This benefit is architecture agnostic and improves with model size and pretraining dataset diversity. Furthermore, we study how and why cross-domain pretraining works in CFD surrogates, and find that simply pooling steady-state datasets is both sufficient and effective. Given the high cost of generating CFD data, leveraging existing datasets through cross-domain pretraining will likely be a valuable strategy as future surrogates expand to tackle new problems and use cases.

Bayesian optimisation (BO) uses probabilistic surrogate models - usually Gaussian processes (GPs) - for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. At each BO iteration, the GP hyperparameters are fit to previously-evaluated data by maximising the marginal likelihood. However, this fails to account for uncertainty in the hyperparameters themselves, leading to overconfident model predictions. This uncertainty can be accounted for by taking the Bayesian approach of marginalising out the model hyperparameters. We investigate whether a fully-Bayesian treatment of the Gaussian process hyperparameters in BO (FBBO) leads to improved optimisation performance. Since an analytic approach is intractable, we compare FBBO using three approximate inference schemes to the maximum likelihood approach, using the Expected Improvement (EI) and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) acquisition functions paired with ARD and isotropic Matern kernels, across 15 well-known benchmark problems for 4 observational noise settings. FBBO using EI with an ARD kernel leads to the best performance in the noise-free setting, with much less difference between combinations of BO components when the noise is increased. FBBO leads to over-exploration with UCB, but is not detrimental with EI. Therefore, we recommend that FBBO using EI with an ARD kernel as the default choice for BO.

This dataset contains a detailed simulation output that allows the construction and study of different data representations for electromagnetic and hadronic showers in calorimeters. It is published so that optimal data representations can be studied, with the ultimate goal of constructing a general tool that takes detailed simulation output and translates it into an optimal representation that can serve as the input to surrogate simulators based on generative models.

Many engineering problems involve phenomena whose governing equations are poorly characterized or only partially known. Surrogate modeling techniques such as neural networks can capture the behavior of these systems, but they typically demand large training datasets that are difficult to obtain in engineering contexts and yield models with limited physical interpretability. The Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) method addresses both limitations by performing sparse regression over libraries of candidate nonlinear terms, recovering interpretable governing equations from comparatively small datasets. Although SINDy has been demonstrated extensively on canonical benchmark systems, its application to practical engineering problems is less widely documented. This tutorial introduces the SINDy method and progressively builds toward its main extensions, from noise-robust weak-form and ensembling-based variants to constrained and parametrizable formulations. The paper and the accompanying tutorial (available at https://github.com/paullililili/SINDy4Engineers) is organized in three parts: the first introduces the standard SINDy algorithm and progressively extends it, inviting readers without prior knowledge to follow each step and adapt the methods to their own problems; the remaining two parts present detailed case studies on (1) the system identification of an unmanned aerial vehicle and (2) a chaotic thermosyphon heat exchanger. Through these examples, we aim to demonstrate that SINDy is simple to implement yet flexible enough to serve as a valuable identification tool for advanced engineering applications.

The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is expected that LISA will detect these systems throughout the entire observable universe. Robust and efficient data analysis algorithms are necessary to detect and estimate physical parameters for these systems. In this work, we explore the application of Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based inference algorithm, to detect and characterize MBHB GW signals in synthetic LISA data. We describe in detail the different elements of the method, their performance and possible alternatives that can be used to enhance the performance. Instead of sampling from the conventional likelihood function, which requires a forward simulation for each evaluation, this method constructs a surrogate likelihood that is ultimately described by a neural network trained from a dataset of simulations of the MBHB signals and noise. One important advantage of this method is that, given that the likelihood is independent of the priors, we can iteratively train models that target specific observations in a fraction of the time and computational cost that other traditional and machine learning-based strategies would require. Because of the iterative nature of the method, we are able to train models to obtain qualitatively similar posteriors with less than 2\% of the simulator calls that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods would require. We compare these posteriors with those obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and discuss the differences that appear, in particular in relation with the important role that data compression has in the modular implementation of the method that we present. We also discuss different strategies to improve the performance of the algorithms.

Learning algorithms are often used in conjunction with expert decision makers in practical scenarios, however this fact is largely ignored when designing these algorithms. In this paper we explore how to learn predictors that can either predict or choose to defer the decision to a downstream expert. Given only samples of the expert's decisions, we give a procedure based on learning a classifier and a rejector and analyze it theoretically. Our approach is based on a novel reduction to cost sensitive learning where we give a consistent surrogate loss for cost sensitive learning that generalizes the cross entropy loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of experimental tasks.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.

The work focuses on gathering high-fidelity and low-fidelity numerical simulations data using Nektar++ (Solver based on Applied Mathematics) and XFOIL respectively. The utilization of the higher polynomial distribution in calculating the Coefficient of lift and drag has demonstrated superior accuracy and precision. Further, Co-kriging Data fusion and Adaptive sampling technique has been used to obtain the precise data predictions for the lift and drag within the confined domain without conducting the costly simulations on HPC clusters. This creates a methodology to quantifying uncertainty in computational fluid dynamics by minimizing the required number of samples. To minimize the reliability on high-fidelity numerical simulations in Uncertainty Quantification, a multi-fidelity strategy has been adopted. The effectiveness of the multi-fidelity deep neural network model has been validated through the approximation of benchmark functions across 1-, 32-, and 100-dimensional, encompassing both linear and nonlinear correlations. The surrogate modelling results showed that multi-fidelity deep neural network model has shown excellent approximation capabilities for the test functions and multi-fidelity deep neural network method has outperformed Co-kriging in effectiveness. In addition to that, multi-fidelity deep neural network model is utilized for the simulation of aleatory uncertainty propagation in 1-, 32-, and 100 dimensional function test, considering both uniform and Gaussian distributions for input uncertainties. The results have shown that multi-fidelity deep neural network model has efficiently predicted the probability density distributions of quantities of interest as well as the statistical moments with precision and accuracy. The Co-Kriging model has exhibited limitations when addressing 32-Dimension problems due to the limitation of memory capacity for storage and manipulation.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Deep-learning survival models for electronic health record (EHR) data are hard to compare across papers because the upstream preprocessing step, which includes cohort definition, time discretisation, missingness handling, and censoring rules, is typically undocumented and inconsistent. A reported difference in concordance between two mortality models can therefore reflect any of these choices rather than a modelling contribution. We present SurvBench, an open-source preprocessing pipeline that converts raw PhysioNet exports into model-ready tensors for survival analysis. SurvBench covers four critical-care databases (MIMIC-IV, eICU, MC-MED, HiRID) and four input modalities: time-series vitals and laboratory values, static demographics, International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes, and radiology report embeddings. Every preprocessing decision is controlled through YAML configuration. Imputation, scaling, and feature filtering are fit on the training fold only. Missingness is recorded as a binary mask alongside each feature tensor. The pipeline handles single-risk endpoints (in-hospital and in-ICU mortality) and competing-risks endpoints (a three-way emergency-department admission pathway, with home discharge treated as administrative censoring). We also provide support for harmonised cross-dataset external validation between eICU and MIMIC-IV. SurvBench is publicly available at https://github.com/munibmesinovic/SurvBench, providing a robust platform that future deep-learning EHR survival work, especially nascent multi-modal approaches, can be measured against under matched preprocessing.

Designing urban spaces that provide pedestrian wind comfort and safety requires time-resolved Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, but their current computational cost makes extensive design exploration impractical. We introduce WinDiNet (Wind Diffusion Network), a pretrained video diffusion model that is repurposed as a fast, differentiable surrogate for this task. Starting from LTX-Video, a 2B-parameter latent video transformer, we fine-tune on 10,000 2D incompressible CFD simulations over procedurally generated building layouts. A systematic study of training regimes, conditioning mechanisms, and VAE adaptation strategies, including a physics-informed decoder loss, identifies a configuration that outperforms purpose-built neural PDE solvers. The resulting model generates full 112-frame rollouts in under a second. As the surrogate is end-to-end differentiable, it doubles as a physics simulator for gradient-based inverse optimization: given an urban footprint layout, we optimize building positions directly through backpropagation to improve wind safety as well as pedestrian wind comfort. Experiments on single- and multi-inlet layouts show that the optimizer discovers effective layouts even under challenging multi-objective configurations, with all improvements confirmed by ground-truth CFD simulations.