Daily Papers

Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have significantly advanced video reasoning, yet Video Question Answering (VideoQA) remains challenging due to its demand for temporal causal reasoning and evidence-grounded answer generation. Prevailing end-to-end MLLM frameworks lack explicit structured reasoning between visual perception and answer derivation, causing severe hallucinations and poor interpretability. Existing methods also fail to address three core gaps: faithful visual clue extraction, utility-aware clue filtering, and end-to-end clue-answer alignment. Inspired by hierarchical human visual cognition, we propose ClueNet, a clue-aware video reasoning framework with a two-stage supervised fine-tuning paradigm without extensive base model modifications. Decoupled supervision aligns clue extraction and chain-based reasoning, while inference supervision with an adaptive clue filter refines high-order reasoning, alongside lightweight modules for efficient inference. Experiments on NExT-QA, STAR, and MVBench show that ClueNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods by ge 1.1%, with superior generalization, hallucination mitigation, inference efficiency, and cross-backbone compatibility. This work bridges the perception-to-generation gap in MLLM video understanding, providing an interpretable, faithful reasoning paradigm for high-stakes VideoQA applications.

Audio-visual large language models (LLM) have drawn significant attention, yet the fine-grained combination of both input streams is rather under-explored, which is challenging but necessary for LLMs to understand general video inputs. To this end, a fine-grained audio-visual joint representation (FAVOR) learning framework for multimodal LLMs is proposed in this paper, which extends a text-based LLM to simultaneously perceive speech and audio events in the audio input stream and images or videos in the visual input stream, at the frame level. To fuse the audio and visual feature streams into joint representations and to align the joint space with the LLM input embedding space, we propose a causal Q-Former structure with a causal attention module to enhance the capture of causal relations of the audio-visual frames across time. An audio-visual evaluation benchmark (AVEB) is also proposed which comprises six representative single-modal tasks with five cross-modal tasks reflecting audio-visual co-reasoning abilities. While achieving competitive single-modal performance on audio, speech and image tasks in AVEB, FAVOR achieved over 20% accuracy improvements on the video question-answering task when fine-grained information or temporal causal reasoning is required. FAVOR, in addition, demonstrated remarkable video comprehension and reasoning abilities on tasks that are unprecedented by other multimodal LLMs. An interactive demo of FAVOR is available at https://github.com/BriansIDP/AudioVisualLLM.git, and the training code and model checkpoints will be released soon.

Understanding dynamic 4D scenes from an egocentric perspective-modeling changes in 3D spatial structure over time-is crucial for human-machine interaction, autonomous navigation, and embodied intelligence. While existing egocentric datasets contain dynamic scenes, they lack unified 4D annotations and task-driven evaluation protocols for fine-grained spatio-temporal reasoning, especially on motion of objects and human, together with their interactions. To address this gap, we introduce EgoDynamic4D, a novel QA benchmark on highly dynamic scenes, comprising RGB-D video, camera poses, globally unique instance masks, and 4D bounding boxes. We construct 927K QA pairs accompanied by explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT), enabling verifiable, step-by-step spatio-temporal reasoning. We design 12 dynamic QA tasks covering agent motion, human-object interaction, trajectory prediction, relation understanding, and temporal-causal reasoning, with fine-grained, multidimensional metrics. To tackle these tasks, we propose an end-to-end spatio-temporal reasoning framework that unifies dynamic and static scene information, using instance-aware feature encoding, time and camera encoding, and spatially adaptive down-sampling to compress large 4D scenes into token sequences manageable by LLMs. Experiments on EgoDynamic4D show that our method consistently outperforms baselines, validating the effectiveness of multimodal temporal modeling for egocentric dynamic scene understanding.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in tasks requiring interpretive and inferential accuracy. In this paper, we introduce ExpliCa, a new dataset for evaluating LLMs in explicit causal reasoning. ExpliCa uniquely integrates both causal and temporal relations presented in different linguistic orders and explicitly expressed by linguistic connectives. The dataset is enriched with crowdsourced human acceptability ratings. We tested LLMs on ExpliCa through prompting and perplexity-based metrics. We assessed seven commercial and open-source LLMs, revealing that even top models struggle to reach 0.80 accuracy. Interestingly, models tend to confound temporal relations with causal ones, and their performance is also strongly influenced by the linguistic order of the events. Finally, perplexity-based scores and prompting performance are differently affected by model size.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performances on a wide range of natural language understanding and generation tasks. We observe that the LLMs provide effective priors in exploiting linguistic shortcuts for temporal and causal reasoning in Video Question Answering (VideoQA). However, such priors often cause suboptimal results on VideoQA by leading the model to over-rely on questions, i.e., linguistic bias, while ignoring visual content. This is also known as `ungrounded guesses' or `hallucinations'. To address this problem while leveraging LLMs' prior on VideoQA, we propose a novel framework, Flipped-VQA, encouraging the model to predict all the combinations of langleV, Q, Arangle triplet by flipping the source pair and the target label to understand their complex relationships, i.e., predict A, Q, and V given a VQ, VA, and QA pairs, respectively. In this paper, we develop LLaMA-VQA by applying Flipped-VQA to LLaMA, and it outperforms both LLMs-based and non-LLMs-based models on five challenging VideoQA benchmarks. Furthermore, our Flipped-VQA is a general framework that is applicable to various LLMs (OPT and GPT-J) and consistently improves their performances. We empirically demonstrate that Flipped-VQA not only enhances the exploitation of linguistic shortcuts but also mitigates the linguistic bias, which causes incorrect answers over-relying on the question. Code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/Flipped-VQA.

Chain-of-Thought reasoning has driven large language models to extend from thinking with text to thinking with images and videos. However, different modalities still have clear limitations: static images struggle to represent temporal structure, while videos introduce substantial redundancy and computational cost. In this work, we propose Thinking with Comics, a visual reasoning paradigm that uses comics as a high information-density medium positioned between images and videos. Comics preserve temporal structure, embedded text, and narrative coherence while requiring significantly lower reasoning cost. We systematically study two reasoning paths based on comics and evaluate them on a range of reasoning tasks and long-context understanding tasks. Experimental results show that Thinking with Comics outperforms Thinking with Images on multi-step temporal and causal reasoning tasks, while remaining substantially more efficient than Thinking with Video. Further analysis indicates that different comic narrative structures and styles consistently affect performance across tasks, suggesting that comics serve as an effective intermediate visual representation for improving multimodal reasoning.

Recent Video Large Language Models (Video-LLMs) have shown strong multimodal reasoning capabilities, yet remain challenged by video understanding tasks that require consistent temporal ordering and causal coherence. Many parameter-efficient Video-LLMs rely on unconstrained bidirectional projectors to model inter-frame interactions, which can blur temporal ordering by allowing later frames to influence earlier representations, without explicit architectural mechanisms to respect the directional nature of video reasoning. To address this limitation, we propose V-CORE, a parameter-efficient framework that introduces explicit temporal ordering constraints for video understanding. V-CORE consists of two key components: (1) Learnable Spatial Aggregation (LSA), which adaptively selects salient spatial tokens to reduce redundancy, and (2) a Causality-Aware Temporal Projector (CATP), which enforces structured unidirectional information flow via block-causal attention and a terminal dynamic summary token acting as a causal sink. This design preserves intra-frame spatial interactions while ensuring that temporal information is aggregated in a strictly ordered manner. With 4-bit QLoRA and a frozen LLM backbone, V-CORE can be trained efficiently on a single consumer GPU. Experiments show that V-CORE achieves strong performance on the challenging NExT-QA benchmark, reaching 61.2% accuracy, and remains competitive across MSVD-QA, MSRVTT-QA, and TGIF-QA, with gains concentrated in temporal and causal reasoning subcategories (+3.5% and +5.2% respectively), directly validating the importance of explicit temporal ordering constraints.

Identifying Bug-Inducing Commits (BICs) is fundamental for understanding software defects and enabling downstream tasks such as defect prediction and automated program repair. Yet existing SZZ-based approaches are limited by their reliance on git blame, which restricts the search space to commits that directly modified the fixed lines. Our preliminary study on 2,102 validated bug-fixing commits reveals that this limitation is significant: over 40% of cases cannot be solved by blame alone, as 28% of BICs require traversing commit history beyond blame results and 14% are blameless. We present AgenticSZZ, the first approach to apply Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) to software evolution analysis. AgenticSZZ reframes BIC identification from a ranking problem over blame commits into a graph search problem, where temporal ordering is fundamental to causal reasoning about bug introduction. The approach operates in two phases: (1) constructing a TKG that encodes commits with temporal and structural relationships, expanding the search space by traversing file history backward from two reference points (blame commits and the BFC); and (2) leveraging an LLM agent to navigate the graph using specialized tools for candidate exploration and causal analysis. Evaluation on three datasets shows that AgenticSZZ achieves F1-scores of 0.48 to 0.74, with statistically significant improvements over state-of-the-art by up to 27%. Our ablation study confirms that both components are essential, reflecting a classic exploration-exploitation trade-off: the TKG expands the search space while the agent provides intelligent selection. By transforming BIC identification into a graph search problem, we open a new research direction for temporal and causal reasoning in software evolution analysis.

Despite impressive visual fidelity, modern video generative models frequently produce sequences that violate intuitive physical laws, such as objects floating, teleporting, or morphing in ways that defy causality. While humans can easily detect such implausibilities, there remains no robust method for quantitatively assessing physical realism in video. In this work, we explore whether Video-Language Models (VLMs) can be trained to serve as reliable judges of physical plausibility. We find that existing VLMs struggle to identify physics violations, exposing fundamental limitations in their temporal and causal reasoning. To address this, we introduce TRAVL, a fine-tuning recipe that combines a balanced training dataset with a trajectory-aware attention module to improve motion encoding and discrimination in VLMs. To evaluate physical reasoning more rigorously, we propose ImplausiBench, a benchmark of 300 videos (150 real, 150 generated) that removes linguistic biases and isolates visual-temporal understanding. Performance is reported both with gold-standard human judgments and stricter LLM-as-judge metrics. Together, TRAVL and ImplausiBench offer a unified framework for probing and improving physical plausibility in multimodal models, shedding light on a challenging and underexplored aspect of visual-temporal understanding.

Recent unified models for joint understanding and generation have significantly advanced visual generation capabilities. However, their focus on conventional tasks like text-to-video generation has left the temporal reasoning potential of unified models largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce Next Scene Prediction (NSP), a new task that pushes unified video models toward temporal and causal reasoning. Unlike text-to-video generation, NSP requires predicting plausible futures from preceding context, demanding deeper understanding and reasoning. To tackle this task, we propose a unified framework combining Qwen-VL for comprehension and LTX for synthesis, bridged by a latent query embedding and a connector module. This model is trained in three stages on our newly curated, large-scale NSP dataset: text-to-video pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning (via GRPO) with our proposed causal consistency reward. Experiments demonstrate our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on our benchmark, advancing the capability of generalist multimodal systems to anticipate what happens next.

This paper aims to quantitatively evaluate the performance of ChatGPT, an interactive large language model, on inter-sentential relations such as temporal relations, causal relations, and discourse relations. Given ChatGPT's promising performance across various tasks, we proceed to carry out thorough evaluations on the whole test sets of 11 datasets, including temporal and causal relations, PDTB2.0-based, and dialogue-based discourse relations. To ensure the reliability of our findings, we employ three tailored prompt templates for each task, including the zero-shot prompt template, zero-shot prompt engineering (PE) template, and in-context learning (ICL) prompt template, to establish the initial baseline scores for all popular sentence-pair relation classification tasks for the first time. Through our study, we discover that ChatGPT exhibits exceptional proficiency in detecting and reasoning about causal relations, albeit it may not possess the same level of expertise in identifying the temporal order between two events. While it is capable of identifying the majority of discourse relations with existing explicit discourse connectives, the implicit discourse relation remains a formidable challenge. Concurrently, ChatGPT demonstrates subpar performance in the dialogue discourse parsing task that requires structural understanding in a dialogue before being aware of the discourse relation.

Visual transformation reasoning (VTR) is a vital cognitive capability that empowers intelligent agents to understand dynamic scenes, model causal relationships, and predict future states, and thereby guiding actions and laying the foundation for advanced intelligent systems. However, existing benchmarks suffer from a sim-to-real gap, limited task complexity, and incomplete reasoning coverage, limiting their practical use in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we introduce VisualTrans, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for VTR in real-world human-object interaction scenarios. VisualTrans encompasses 12 semantically diverse manipulation tasks and systematically evaluates three essential reasoning dimensions - spatial, procedural, and quantitative - through 6 well-defined subtask types. The benchmark features 472 high-quality question-answer pairs in various formats, including multiple-choice, open-ended counting, and target enumeration. We introduce a scalable data construction pipeline built upon first-person manipulation videos, which integrates task selection, image pair extraction, automated metadata annotation with large multimodal models, and structured question generation. Human verification ensures the final benchmark is both high-quality and interpretable. Evaluations of various state-of-the-art vision-language models show strong performance in static spatial tasks. However, they reveal notable shortcomings in dynamic, multi-step reasoning scenarios, particularly in areas like intermediate state recognition and transformation sequence planning. These findings highlight fundamental weaknesses in temporal modeling and causal reasoning, providing clear directions for future research aimed at developing more capable and generalizable VTR systems. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/WangYipu2002/VisualTrans.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) based on large language models often falters on narrative documents with inherent temporal structures. Standard unstructured RAG methods rely solely on embedding-similarity matching and lack any general mechanism to encode or exploit chronological information, while knowledge graph RAG (KG-RAG) frameworks collapse every mention of an entity into a single node, erasing the evolving context that drives many queries. To formalize this challenge and draw the community's attention, we construct ChronoQA, a robust and discriminative QA benchmark that measures temporal, causal, and character consistency understanding in narrative documents (e.g., novels) under the RAG setting. We then introduce Entity-Event RAG (E^2RAG), a dual-graph framework that keeps separate entity and event subgraphs linked by a bipartite mapping, thereby preserving the temporal and causal facets needed for fine-grained reasoning. Across ChronoQA, our approach outperforms state-of-the-art unstructured and KG-based RAG baselines, with notable gains on causal and character consistency queries. E^2RAG therefore offers a practical path to more context-aware retrieval for tasks that require precise answers grounded in chronological information.

Understanding causal event relationships and achieving fine-grained temporal grounding in videos remain challenging for vision-language models. Existing methods either compress video tokens to reduce temporal resolution, or treat videos as unsegmented streams, which obscures fine-grained event boundaries and limits the modeling of causal dependencies. We propose TEMPURA (Temporal Event Masked Prediction and Understanding for Reasoning in Action), a two-stage training framework that enhances video temporal understanding. TEMPURA first applies masked event prediction reasoning to reconstruct missing events and generate step-by-step causal explanations from dense event annotations, drawing inspiration from effective infilling techniques. TEMPURA then learns to perform video segmentation and dense captioning to decompose videos into non-overlapping events with detailed, timestamp-aligned descriptions. We train TEMPURA on VER, a large-scale dataset curated by us that comprises 1M training instances and 500K videos with temporally aligned event descriptions and structured reasoning steps. Experiments on temporal grounding and highlight detection benchmarks demonstrate that TEMPURA outperforms strong baseline models, confirming that integrating causal reasoning with fine-grained temporal segmentation leads to improved video understanding.

Large Multi-modality Models (LMMs) have made significant progress in visual understanding and generation, but they still face challenges in General Visual Editing, particularly in following complex instructions, preserving appearance consistency, and supporting flexible input formats. To address this gap, we introduce RISEBench, the first benchmark for evaluating Reasoning-Informed viSual Editing (RISE). RISEBench focuses on four key reasoning types: Temporal, Causal, Spatial, and Logical Reasoning. We curate high-quality test cases for each category and propose an evaluation framework that assesses Instruction Reasoning, Appearance Consistency, and Visual Plausibility with both human judges and an LMM-as-a-judge approach. Our experiments reveal that while GPT-4o-Native significantly outperforms other open-source and proprietary models, even this state-of-the-art system struggles with logical reasoning tasks, highlighting an area that remains underexplored. As an initial effort, RISEBench aims to provide foundational insights into reasoning-aware visual editing and to catalyze future research. Though still in its early stages, we are committed to continuously expanding and refining the benchmark to support more comprehensive, reliable, and scalable evaluations of next-generation multimodal systems. Our code and data will be released at https://github.com/PhoenixZ810/RISEBench.

Reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) has shown great promise in achieving humanlevel reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), and has recently been extended to MLLMs. Nevertheless, reasoning about videos, which is a fundamental aspect of human intelligence, remains a persistent challenge due to the complex logic, temporal and causal structures inherent in video data. To fill this gap, we propose VideoRFT, a novel approach that extends the RFT paradigm to cultivate human-like video reasoning capabilities in MLLMs. VideoRFT follows the standard two-stage scheme in RFT: supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with chain-of-thought (CoT) annotations, followed by reinforcement learning (RL) to improve generalization. A central challenge to achieve this in the video domain lies in the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality video CoT datasets. We address this by building a multi-expert-driven, cognition-inspired CoT curation pipeline. First, we devise a cognition-inspired prompting strategy to elicit a reasoning LLM to generate preliminary CoTs based solely on rich, structured, and literal representations of video content. Subsequently, these CoTs are revised by a MLLM conditioned on the actual video, ensuring visual consistency and reducing visual hallucinations. This pipeline results in two new datasets, i.e.VideoRFT-CoT-102K for SFT and VideoRFT-RL-310K for RL. To further strengthen the RL phase, we introduce a novel semantic-consistency reward that explicitly promotes the alignment between textual reasoning and visual evidence. This reward encourages the model to produce coherent, context-aware reasoning outputs grounded in visual input. Extensive experiments show that VideoRFT achieves state-of-the-art performance on six video reasoning benchmarks.

We introduce NExT-QA, a rigorously designed video question answering (VideoQA) benchmark to advance video understanding from describing to explaining the temporal actions. Based on the dataset, we set up multi-choice and open-ended QA tasks targeting causal action reasoning, temporal action reasoning, and common scene comprehension. Through extensive analysis of baselines and established VideoQA techniques, we find that top-performing methods excel at shallow scene descriptions but are weak in causal and temporal action reasoning. Furthermore, the models that are effective on multi-choice QA, when adapted to open-ended QA, still struggle in generalizing the answers. This raises doubt on the ability of these models to reason and highlights possibilities for improvement. With detailed results for different question types and heuristic observations for future works, we hope NExT-QA will guide the next generation of VQA research to go beyond superficial scene description towards a deeper understanding of videos. (The dataset and related resources are available at https://github.com/doc-doc/NExT-QA.git)

While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) exhibit strong performance on single-video tasks (e.g., video question answering), their ability across multiple videos remains critically underexplored. However, this capability is essential for real-world applications, including multi-camera surveillance and cross-video procedural learning. To bridge this gap, we present CVBench, the first comprehensive benchmark designed to assess cross-video relational reasoning rigorously. CVBench comprises 1,000 question-answer pairs spanning three hierarchical tiers: cross-video object association (identifying shared entities), cross-video event association (linking temporal or causal event chains), and cross-video complex reasoning (integrating commonsense and domain knowledge). Built from five domain-diverse video clusters (e.g., sports, life records), the benchmark challenges models to synthesise information across dynamic visual contexts. Extensive evaluation of 10+ leading MLLMs (including GPT-4o, Gemini-2.0-flash, Qwen2.5-VL) under zero-shot or chain-of-thought prompting paradigms. Key findings reveal stark performance gaps: even top models, such as GPT-4o, achieve only 60% accuracy on causal reasoning tasks, compared to the 91% accuracy of human performance. Crucially, our analysis reveals fundamental bottlenecks inherent in current MLLM architectures, notably deficient inter-video context retention and poor disambiguation of overlapping entities. CVBench establishes a rigorous framework for diagnosing and advancing multi-video reasoning, offering architectural insights for next-generation MLLMs. The data and evaluation code are available at https://github.com/Hokhim2/CVBench.

Video Question Answering (VideoQA) requires identifying sparse critical moments in long videos and reasoning about their causal relationships to answer semantically complex questions. While recent advances in multimodal learning have improved alignment and fusion, current approaches remain limited by two prevalent but fundamentally flawed strategies: (1) task-agnostic sampling indiscriminately processes all frames, overwhelming key events with irrelevant content; and (2) heuristic retrieval captures superficial patterns but misses causal-temporal structures needed for complex reasoning. To address these challenges, we introduce LeAdQA, an innovative approach that bridges these gaps through synergizing causal-aware query refinement with fine-grained visual grounding. Our method first leverages LLMs to reformulate question-option pairs, resolving causal ambiguities and sharpening temporal focus. These refined queries subsequently direct a temporal grounding model to precisely retrieve the most salient segments, complemented by an adaptive fusion mechanism dynamically integrating the evidence to maximize relevance. The integrated visual-textual cues are then processed by an MLLM to generate accurate, contextually-grounded answers. Experiments on NExT-QA, IntentQA, and NExT-GQA demonstrate that our method's precise visual grounding substantially enhances the understanding of video-question relationships, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on complex reasoning tasks while maintaining computational efficiency.

Although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate strong omni-modal perception, their ability to forecast future events from audio-visual cues remains largely unexplored, as existing benchmarks focus mainly on retrospective understanding. To bridge this gap, we introduce FutureOmni, the first benchmark designed to evaluate omni-modal future forecasting from audio-visual environments. The evaluated models are required to perform cross-modal causal and temporal reasoning, as well as effectively leverage internal knowledge to predict future events. FutureOmni is constructed via a scalable LLM-assisted, human-in-the-loop pipeline and contains 919 videos and 1,034 multiple-choice QA pairs across 8 primary domains. Evaluations on 13 omni-modal and 7 video-only models show that current systems struggle with audio-visual future prediction, particularly in speech-heavy scenarios, with the best accuracy of 64.8% achieved by Gemini 3 Flash. To mitigate this limitation, we curate a 7K-sample instruction-tuning dataset and propose an Omni-Modal Future Forecasting (OFF) training strategy. Evaluations on FutureOmni and popular audio-visual and video-only benchmarks demonstrate that OFF enhances future forecasting and generalization. We publicly release all code (https://github.com/OpenMOSS/FutureOmni) and datasets (https://huggingface.co/datasets/OpenMOSS-Team/FutureOmni).

Large language models (LLMs) excel at general language tasks but often struggle with event-based questions-especially those requiring causal or temporal reasoning. We introduce TAG-EQA (Text-And-Graph for Event Question Answering), a prompting framework that injects causal event graphs into LLM inputs by converting structured relations into natural-language statements. TAG-EQA spans nine prompting configurations, combining three strategies (zero-shot, few-shot, chain-of-thought) with three input modalities (text-only, graph-only, text+graph), enabling a systematic analysis of when and how structured knowledge aids inference. On the TORQUESTRA benchmark, TAG-EQA improves accuracy by 5% on average over text-only baselines, with gains up to 12% in zero-shot settings and 18% when graph-augmented CoT prompting is effective. While performance varies by model and configuration, our findings show that causal graphs can enhance event reasoning in LLMs without fine-tuning, offering a flexible way to encode structure in prompt-based QA.

Traditional temporal action localization (TAL) methods rely on large amounts of detailed annotated data, whereas few-shot TAL reduces this dependence by using only a few training samples to identify unseen action categories. However, existing few-shot TAL methods typically focus solely on video-level information, neglecting textual information, which can provide valuable semantic support for the action localization task. To address these issues, in this work, we propose a new few-shot temporal action localization method by Chain-of-Evidence multimodal reasoning to improve localization performance. Specifically, we design a novel few-shot learning framework to capture action commonalities and variations, which includes a semantic-aware text-visual alignment module designed to align the query and support videos at different levels. Meanwhile, to better express the temporal dependencies and causal relationships between actions at the textual level, we design a Chain-of-Evidence (CoE) reasoning method that progressively guides the Vision Language Model (VLM) and Large Language Model (LLM) to generate CoE text descriptions for videos. The generated texts can capture more variance of action than visual features. We conduct extensive experiments on the publicly available ActivityNet1.3, THUMOS14 and our newly collected Human-related Anomaly Localization Dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method significantly outperforms existing methods in single-instance and multi-instance scenarios. Our source code and data are available at https://github.com/MICLAB-BUPT/VAL-VLM.

Understanding the abilities of LLMs to reason about natural language plans, such as instructional text and recipes, is critical to reliably using them in decision-making systems. A fundamental aspect of plans is the temporal order in which their steps needs to be executed, which reflects the underlying causal dependencies between them. We introduce CaT-Bench, a benchmark of Step Order Prediction questions, which test whether a step must necessarily occur before or after another in cooking recipe plans. We use this to evaluate how well frontier LLMs understand causal and temporal dependencies. We find that SOTA LLMs are underwhelming (best zero-shot is only 0.59 in F1), and are biased towards predicting dependence more often, perhaps relying on temporal order of steps as a heuristic. While prompting for explanations and using few-shot examples improve performance, the best F1 result is only 0.73. Further, human evaluation of explanations along with answer correctness show that, on average, humans do not agree with model reasoning. Surprisingly, we also find that explaining after answering leads to better performance than normal chain-of-thought prompting, and LLM answers are not consistent across questions about the same step pairs. Overall, results show that LLMs' ability to detect dependence between steps has significant room for improvement.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Modern BPE tokenizers often split calendar dates into meaningless fragments, e.g., 20250312 rightarrow 202, 503, 12, inflating token counts and obscuring the inherent structure needed for robust temporal reasoning. In this work, we (1) introduce a simple yet interpretable metric, termed date fragmentation ratio, that measures how faithfully a tokenizer preserves multi-digit date components; (2) release DateAugBench, a suite of 6500 examples spanning three temporal reasoning tasks: context-based date resolution, format-invariance puzzles, and date arithmetic across historical, contemporary, and future regimes; and (3) through layer-wise probing and causal attention-hop analyses, uncover an emergent date-abstraction mechanism whereby large language models stitch together the fragments of month, day, and year components for temporal reasoning. Our experiments show that excessive fragmentation correlates with accuracy drops of up to 10 points on uncommon dates like historical and futuristic dates. Further, we find that the larger the model, the faster the emergent date abstraction that heals date fragments is accomplished. Lastly, we observe a reasoning path that LLMs follow to assemble date fragments, typically differing from human interpretation (year rightarrow month rightarrow day).

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning improves multi-step mathematical problem solving in large language models but remains vulnerable to exposure bias and error accumulation, as early mistakes propagate irreversibly through autoregressive decoding. In this work, we propose DiffCoT, a diffusion-styled CoT framework that reformulates CoT reasoning as an iterative denoising process. DiffCoT integrates diffusion principles at the reasoning-step level via a sliding-window mechanism, enabling unified generation and retrospective correction of intermediate steps while preserving token-level autoregression. To maintain causal consistency, we further introduce a causal diffusion noise schedule that respects the temporal structure of reasoning chains. Extensive experiments on three multi-step CoT reasoning benchmarks across diverse model backbones demonstrate that DiffCoT consistently outperforms existing CoT preference optimization methods, yielding improved robustness and error-correction capability in CoT reasoning.

Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model electricity prices without explicit causal interpretation or counterfactual reasoning capabilities. We introduce Augmented Time Series Causal Models (ATSCM) for energy markets, extending counterfactual reasoning frameworks to multivariate temporal data with learned causal structure. Our approach models energy systems through interpretable factors (weather, generation mix, demand patterns), rich grid dynamics, and observable market variables. We integrate neural causal discovery to learn time-varying causal graphs without requiring ground truth DAGs. Applied to real-world electricity price data, ATSCM enables novel counterfactual queries such as "What would prices be under different renewable generation scenarios?".

Video Question Answering (VideoQA) task serves as a critical playground for evaluating whether foundation models can effectively perceive, understand, and reason about dynamic real-world scenarios. However, existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) struggle with simultaneously modeling spatial relationships within video frames and understanding the causal dynamics of temporal evolution on complex and reasoning-intensive VideoQA task. In this work, we equip MLLM with a comprehensive and extensible Video Toolkit, to enhance MLLM's spatiotemporal reasoning capabilities and ensure the harmony between the quantity and diversity of tools. To better control the tool invocation sequence and avoid toolchain shortcut issues, we propose a Spatiotemporal Reasoning Framework (STAR) that strategically schedules temporal and spatial tools, thereby progressively localizing the key area in the video. Our STAR framework enhances GPT-4o using lightweight tools, achieving an 8.2% gain on VideoMME and 4.6% on LongVideoBench. We believe that our proposed Video Toolkit and STAR framework make an important step towards building autonomous and intelligent video analysis assistants. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/fansunqi/VideoTool.

Visual reasoning is critical for a wide range of computer vision tasks that go beyond surface-level object detection and classification. Despite notable advances in relational, symbolic, temporal, causal, and commonsense reasoning, existing surveys often address these directions in isolation, lacking a unified analysis and comparison across reasoning types, methodologies, and evaluation protocols. This survey aims to address this gap by categorizing visual reasoning into five major types (relational, symbolic, temporal, causal, and commonsense) and systematically examining their implementation through architectures such as graph-based models, memory networks, attention mechanisms, and neuro-symbolic systems. We review evaluation protocols designed to assess functional correctness, structural consistency, and causal validity, and critically analyze their limitations in terms of generalizability, reproducibility, and explanatory power. Beyond evaluation, we identify key open challenges in visual reasoning, including scalability to complex scenes, deeper integration of symbolic and neural paradigms, the lack of comprehensive benchmark datasets, and reasoning under weak supervision. Finally, we outline a forward-looking research agenda for next-generation vision systems, emphasizing that bridging perception and reasoning is essential for building transparent, trustworthy, and cross-domain adaptive AI systems, particularly in critical domains such as autonomous driving and medical diagnostics.

Recent advances in test-time optimization have led to remarkable reasoning capabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs), enabling them to solve highly complex problems in math and coding. However, the reasoning capabilities of multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) still significantly lag, especially for complex video-language tasks. To address this issue, we present SiLVR, a Simple Language-based Video Reasoning framework that decomposes complex video understanding into two stages. In the first stage, SiLVR transforms raw video into language-based representations using multisensory inputs, such as short clip captions and audio/speech subtitles. In the second stage, language descriptions are fed into a powerful reasoning LLM to solve complex video-language understanding tasks. To handle long-context multisensory inputs, we use an adaptive token reduction scheme, which dynamically determines the temporal granularity with which to sample the tokens. Our simple, modular, and training-free video reasoning framework achieves the best-reported results on Video-MME (long), Video-MMMU (comprehension), Video-MMLU, CGBench, and EgoLife. Furthermore, our empirical study focused on video reasoning capabilities shows that, despite not being explicitly trained on video, strong reasoning LLMs can effectively aggregate multisensory input information from video, speech, and audio for complex temporal, causal, long-context, and knowledge acquisition reasoning tasks in video. Code is available at https://github.com/CeeZh/SILVR.

To enable progress towards egocentric agents capable of understanding everyday tasks specified in natural language, we propose a benchmark and a synthetic dataset called Egocentric Task Verification (EgoTV). EgoTV contains multi-step tasks with multiple sub-task decompositions, state changes, object interactions, and sub-task ordering constraints, in addition to abstracted task descriptions that contain only partial details about ways to accomplish a task. We also propose a novel Neuro-Symbolic Grounding (NSG) approach to enable the causal, temporal, and compositional reasoning of such tasks. We demonstrate NSG's capability towards task tracking and verification on our EgoTV dataset and a real-world dataset derived from CrossTask (CTV). Our contributions include the release of the EgoTV and CTV datasets, and the NSG model for future research on egocentric assistive agents.

Memory-Augmented Generation (MAG) extends Large Language Models with external memory to support long-context reasoning, but existing approaches largely rely on semantic similarity over monolithic memory stores, entangling temporal, causal, and entity information. This design limits interpretability and alignment between query intent and retrieved evidence, leading to suboptimal reasoning accuracy. In this paper, we propose MAGMA, a multi-graph agentic memory architecture that represents each memory item across orthogonal semantic, temporal, causal, and entity graphs. MAGMA formulates retrieval as policy-guided traversal over these relational views, enabling query-adaptive selection and structured context construction. By decoupling memory representation from retrieval logic, MAGMA provides transparent reasoning paths and fine-grained control over retrieval. Experiments on LoCoMo and LongMemEval demonstrate that MAGMA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art agentic memory systems in long-horizon reasoning tasks.

Recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated substantial potential in video understanding. However, existing benchmarks fail to comprehensively evaluate synergistic reasoning capabilities across audio and visual modalities, often neglecting either one of the modalities or integrating them in a logically inconsistent manner. To bridge this gap, we introduce OmniVideoBench, a large-scale and rigorously designed benchmark dedicated to assessing synergistic audio-visual understanding, with a strong emphasis on modality complementarity and logical consistency. Specifically, OmniVideoBench comprises 1000 high-quality question-answer(QA) pairs, each annotated with step-by-step reasoning traces, derived from 628 diverse videos ranging from several seconds to 30 minutes, and manually verified to guarantee complete correctness and uniqueness. Moreover, OmniVideoBench encompasses 13 carefully designed question types, covering temporal reasoning, spatial localization, counting, causal inference, summarization, and beyond, thereby capturing the essential challenges of video understanding. Evaluation of multiple MLLMs on OmniVideoBench reveals a pronounced gap between model performance and human reasoning, with open-source models lagging significantly behind their closed-source counterparts, underscoring the inherent difficulty of genuine audio-visual reasoning. We will release OmniVideoBench to foster the development of MLLMs with stronger and more generalizable reasoning capabilities.

We present HourVideo, a benchmark dataset for hour-long video-language understanding. Our dataset consists of a novel task suite comprising summarization, perception (recall, tracking), visual reasoning (spatial, temporal, predictive, causal, counterfactual), and navigation (room-to-room, object retrieval) tasks. HourVideo includes 500 manually curated egocentric videos from the Ego4D dataset, spanning durations of 20 to 120 minutes, and features 12,976 high-quality, five-way multiple-choice questions. Benchmarking results reveal that multimodal models, including GPT-4 and LLaVA-NeXT, achieve marginal improvements over random chance. In stark contrast, human experts significantly outperform the state-of-the-art long-context multimodal model, Gemini Pro 1.5 (85.0% vs. 37.3%), highlighting a substantial gap in multimodal capabilities. Our benchmark, evaluation toolkit, prompts, and documentation are available at https://hourvideo.stanford.edu

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Reasoning about time and temporal relations is an integral aspect of human cognition, essential for perceiving the world and navigating our experiences. Though large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in many reasoning tasks, temporal reasoning remains challenging due to its intrinsic complexity. In this work, we first study an essential task of temporal reasoning -- temporal graph generation, to unveil LLMs' inherent, global reasoning capabilities. We show that this task presents great challenges even for the most powerful LLMs, such as GPT-3.5/4. We also notice a significant performance gap by small models (<10B) that lag behind LLMs by 50%. Next, we study how to close this gap with a budget constraint, e.g., not using model finetuning. We propose a new prompting technique tailored for temporal reasoning, Narrative-of-Thought (NoT), that first converts the events set to a Python class, then prompts a small model to generate a temporally grounded narrative, guiding the final generation of a temporal graph. Extensive experiments showcase the efficacy of NoT in improving various metrics. Notably, NoT attains the highest F1 on the Schema-11 evaluation set, while securing an overall F1 on par with GPT-3.5. NoT also achieves the best structural similarity across the board, even compared with GPT-3.5/4. Our code is available at https://github.com/launchnlp/NoT.

Temporal reasoning is a crucial NLP task, providing a nuanced understanding of time-sensitive contexts within textual data. Although recent advancements in LLMs have demonstrated their potential in temporal reasoning, the predominant focus has been on tasks such as temporal expression and temporal relation extraction. These tasks are primarily designed for the extraction of direct and past temporal cues and to engage in simple reasoning processes. A significant gap remains when considering complex reasoning tasks such as event forecasting, which requires multi-step temporal reasoning on events and prediction on the future timestamp. Another notable limitation of existing methods is their incapability to provide an illustration of their reasoning process, hindering explainability. In this paper, we introduce the first task of explainable temporal reasoning, to predict an event's occurrence at a future timestamp based on context which requires multiple reasoning over multiple events, and subsequently provide a clear explanation for their prediction. Our task offers a comprehensive evaluation of both the LLMs' complex temporal reasoning ability, the future event prediction ability, and explainability-a critical attribute for AI applications. To support this task, we present the first multi-source instruction-tuning dataset of explainable temporal reasoning (ExpTime) with 26k derived from the temporal knowledge graph datasets and their temporal reasoning paths, using a novel knowledge-graph-instructed-generation strategy. Based on the dataset, we propose the first open-source LLM series TimeLlaMA based on the foundation LlaMA2, with the ability of instruction following for explainable temporal reasoning. We compare the performance of our method and a variety of LLMs, where our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of temporal prediction and explanation.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Multivariate time series data typically comprises two distinct modalities: variable semantics and sampled numerical observations. Traditional time series models treat variables as anonymous statistical signals, overlooking the rich semantic information embedded in variable names and data descriptions. However, these textual descriptors often encode critical domain knowledge that is essential for robust and interpretable modeling. Here we present TimeMKG, a multimodal causal reasoning framework that elevates time series modeling from low-level signal processing to knowledge informed inference. TimeMKG employs large language models to interpret variable semantics and constructs structured Multivariate Knowledge Graphs that capture inter-variable relationships. A dual-modality encoder separately models the semantic prompts, generated from knowledge graph triplets, and the statistical patterns from historical time series. Cross-modality attention aligns and fuses these representations at the variable level, injecting causal priors into downstream tasks such as forecasting and classification, providing explicit and interpretable priors to guide model reasoning. The experiment in diverse datasets demonstrates that incorporating variable-level knowledge significantly improves both predictive performance and generalization.

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

Grasping the concept of time is a fundamental facet of human cognition, indispensable for truly comprehending the intricacies of the world. Previous studies typically focus on specific aspects of time, lacking a comprehensive temporal reasoning benchmark. To address this, we propose TimeBench, a comprehensive hierarchical temporal reasoning benchmark that covers a broad spectrum of temporal reasoning phenomena. TimeBench provides a thorough evaluation for investigating the temporal reasoning capabilities of large language models. We conduct extensive experiments on GPT-4, LLaMA2, and other popular LLMs under various settings. Our experimental results indicate a significant performance gap between the state-of-the-art LLMs and humans, highlighting that there is still a considerable distance to cover in temporal reasoning. Besides, LLMs exhibit capability discrepancies across different reasoning categories. Furthermore, we thoroughly analyze the impact of multiple aspects on temporal reasoning and emphasize the associated challenges. We aspire for TimeBench to serve as a comprehensive benchmark, fostering research in temporal reasoning. Resources are available at: https://github.com/zchuz/TimeBench

Reasoning about time is essential for understanding the nuances of events described in natural language. Previous research on this topic has been limited in scope, characterized by a lack of standardized benchmarks that would allow for consistent evaluations across different studies. In this paper, we introduce TRAM, a temporal reasoning benchmark composed of ten datasets, encompassing various temporal aspects of events such as order, arithmetic, frequency, and duration, designed to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of the TeR capabilities of large language models (LLMs). We evaluate popular LLMs like GPT-4 and Llama2 in zero-shot and few-shot scenarios, and establish baselines with BERT-based and domain-specific models. Our findings indicate that the best-performing model lags significantly behind human performance. It is our aspiration that TRAM will spur further progress in enhancing the TeR capabilities of LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great promise in planning and reasoning applications. These tasks demand robust systems, which arguably require a causal understanding of the environment. While LLMs can acquire and reflect common sense causal knowledge from their pretraining data, this information is often incomplete, incorrect, or inapplicable to a specific environment. In contrast, causal representation learning (CRL) focuses on identifying the underlying causal structure within a given environment. We propose a framework that integrates CRLs with LLMs to enable causally-aware reasoning and planning. This framework learns a causal world model, with causal variables linked to natural language expressions. This mapping provides LLMs with a flexible interface to process and generate descriptions of actions and states in text form. Effectively, the causal world model acts as a simulator that the LLM can query and interact with. We evaluate the framework on causal inference and planning tasks across temporal scales and environmental complexities. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, with the causally-aware method outperforming LLM-based reasoners, especially for longer planning horizons.

Recent advances in multimodal time series learning underscore a paradigm shift from analytics centered on basic patterns toward advanced time series understanding and reasoning. However, existing multimodal time series datasets mostly remain at the level of surface alignment and question answering, without reaching the depth of genuine reasoning. The absence of well-defined tasks that genuinely require time series reasoning, along with the scarcity of high-quality data, has limited progress in building practical time series reasoning models (TSRMs). To this end, we introduce Time Series Reasoning Suite (TSR-Suite), which formalizes four atomic tasks that span three fundamental capabilities for reasoning with time series: (1) perception, acquired through scenario understanding and causality discovery; (2) extrapolation, realized via event-aware forecasting; and (3) decision-making, developed through deliberation over perception and extrapolation. TSR-Suite is the first comprehensive time series reasoning suite that supports not only thorough evaluation but also the data pipeline and training of TSRMs. It contains more than 23K samples, of which 2.3K are carefully curated through a human-guided hierarchical annotation process. Building on this foundation, we introduce TimeOmni-1, the first unified reasoning model designed to address diverse real-world problems demanding time series reasoning. The model is trained in multiple stages, integrating a mixture of task scenarios, novel reward functions, and tailored optimizations. Experiments show that TimeOmni-1 delivers strong out-of-distribution generalization across all tasks and achieves a high rate of valid responses. It significantly improves causality discovery accuracy (64.0% vs. 35.9% with GPT-4.1) and raises the valid response rate by over 6% compared to GPT-4.1 on the event-aware forecasting task.

Dynamic graph learning methods have recently emerged as powerful tools for modelling relational data evolving through time. However, despite extensive benchmarking efforts, it remains unclear whether current Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) effectively capture core temporal patterns such as periodicity, cause-and-effect, and long-range dependencies. In this work, we introduce the Temporal Graph Reasoning Benchmark (T-GRAB), a comprehensive set of synthetic tasks designed to systematically probe the capabilities of TGNNs to reason across time. T-GRAB provides controlled, interpretable tasks that isolate key temporal skills: counting/memorizing periodic repetitions, inferring delayed causal effects, and capturing long-range dependencies over both spatial and temporal dimensions. We evaluate 11 temporal graph learning methods on these tasks, revealing fundamental shortcomings in their ability to generalize temporal patterns. Our findings offer actionable insights into the limitations of current models, highlight challenges hidden by traditional real-world benchmarks, and motivate the development of architectures with stronger temporal reasoning abilities. The code for T-GRAB can be found at: https://github.com/alirezadizaji/T-GRAB.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries (~ 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.

Temporal reasoning is pivotal for Large Language Models (LLMs) to comprehend the real world. However, existing works neglect the real-world challenges for temporal reasoning: (1) intensive temporal information, (2) fast-changing event dynamics, and (3) complex temporal dependencies in social interactions. To bridge this gap, we propose a multi-level benchmark TIME, designed for temporal reasoning in real-world scenarios. TIME consists of 38,522 QA pairs, covering 3 levels with 11 fine-grained sub-tasks. This benchmark encompasses 3 sub-datasets reflecting different real-world challenges: TIME-Wiki, TIME-News, and TIME-Dial. We conduct extensive experiments on reasoning models and non-reasoning models. And we conducted an in-depth analysis of temporal reasoning performance across diverse real-world scenarios and tasks, and summarized the impact of test-time scaling on temporal reasoning capabilities. Additionally, we release TIME-Lite, a human-annotated subset to foster future research and standardized evaluation in temporal reasoning. The code is available at https://github.com/sylvain-wei/TIME , and the dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SylvainWei/TIME .

We propose TRACIE, a novel temporal reasoning dataset that evaluates the degree to which systems understand implicit events -- events that are not mentioned explicitly in natural language text but can be inferred from it. This introduces a new challenge in temporal reasoning research, where prior work has focused on explicitly mentioned events. Human readers can infer implicit events via commonsense reasoning, resulting in a more comprehensive understanding of the situation and, consequently, better reasoning about time. We find, however, that state-of-the-art models struggle when predicting temporal relationships between implicit and explicit events. To address this, we propose a neuro-symbolic temporal reasoning model, SYMTIME, which exploits distant supervision signals from large-scale text and uses temporal rules to combine start times and durations to infer end times. SYMTIME outperforms strong baseline systems on TRACIE by 5%, and by 11% in a zero prior knowledge training setting. Our approach also generalizes to other temporal reasoning tasks, as evidenced by a gain of 1%-9% on MATRES, an explicit event benchmark.

Reasoning requires adaptation to novel problem settings under limited data and distribution shift. This work introduces CausalARC: an experimental testbed for AI reasoning in low-data and out-of-distribution regimes, modeled after the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). Each CausalARC reasoning task is sampled from a fully specified causal world model, formally expressed as a structural causal model. Principled data augmentations provide observational, interventional, and counterfactual feedback about the world model in the form of few-shot, in-context learning demonstrations. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the use of CausalARC for four language model evaluation settings: (1) abstract reasoning with test-time training, (2) counterfactual reasoning with in-context learning, (3) program synthesis, and (4) causal discovery with logical reasoning.

Causal reasoning and compositional reasoning are two core aspirations in generative AI. Measuring the extent of these behaviors requires principled evaluation methods. We explore a unified perspective that considers both behaviors simultaneously, termed compositional causal reasoning (CCR): the ability to infer how causal measures compose and, equivalently, how causal quantities propagate through graphs. We instantiate a framework for the systematic evaluation of CCR for the average treatment effect and the probability of necessity and sufficiency. As proof of concept, we demonstrate the design of CCR tasks for language models in the LLama, Phi, and GPT families. On a math word problem, our framework revealed a range of taxonomically distinct error patterns. Additionally, CCR errors increased with the complexity of causal paths for all models except o1.

Understanding narratives requires reasoning about the cause-and-effect relationships between events mentioned in the text. While existing foundation models yield impressive results in many NLP tasks requiring reasoning, it is unclear whether they understand the complexity of the underlying network of causal relationships of events in narratives. In this work, we present CRAB, a new Causal Reasoning Assessment Benchmark designed to evaluate causal understanding of events in real-world narratives. CRAB contains fine-grained, contextual causality annotations for ~2.7K pairs of real-world events that describe various newsworthy event timelines (e.g., the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk). Using CRAB, we measure the performance of several large language models, demonstrating that most systems achieve poor performance on the task. Motivated by classical causal principles, we also analyze the causal structures of groups of events in CRAB, and find that models perform worse on causal reasoning when events are derived from complex causal structures compared to simple linear causal chains. We make our dataset and code available to the research community.

Actual causality (AC), a fundamental aspect of causal reasoning (CR), is responsible for attribution and responsibility assignment in real-world scenarios. However, existing LLM-based methods lack grounding in formal AC theory, resulting in limited interpretability. Therefore, we propose AC-Reason, a semi-formal reasoning framework that identifies causally relevant events within an AC scenario, infers the values of their formal causal factors (e.g., sufficiency, necessity, and normality), and answers AC queries via a theory-guided algorithm with explanations. While AC-Reason does not explicitly construct a causal graph, it operates over variables in the underlying causal structure to support principled reasoning. To enable comprehensive evaluation, we introduce AC-Bench, a new benchmark built upon and substantially extending Big-Bench Hard Causal Judgment (BBH-CJ). AC-Bench comprises ~1K carefully annotated samples, each with detailed reasoning steps and focuses solely on actual causation. The case study shows that synthesized samples in AC-Bench present greater challenges for LLMs. Extensive experiments on BBH-CJ and AC-Bench show that AC-Reason consistently improves LLM performance over baselines. On BBH-CJ, all tested LLMs surpass the average human rater accuracy of 69.60%, with GPT-4 + AC-Reason achieving 75.04%. On AC-Bench, GPT-4 + AC-Reason again achieves the highest accuracy of 71.82%. AC-Bench further enables fine-grained analysis of reasoning faithfulness, revealing that only Qwen-2.5-72B-Instruct, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, and GPT-4o exhibit faithful reasoning, whereas GPT-4 tends to exploit shortcuts. Finally, our ablation study proves that integrating AC theory into LLMs is highly effective, with the proposed algorithm contributing the most significant performance gains.

Temporal reasoning is fundamental to human cognition and is crucial for various real-world applications. While recent advances in Large Language Models have demonstrated promising capabilities in temporal reasoning, existing benchmarks primarily rely on rule-based construction, lack contextual depth, and involve a limited range of temporal entities. To address these limitations, we introduce Chinese Time Reasoning (CTM), a benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs on temporal reasoning within the extensive scope of Chinese dynastic chronology. CTM emphasizes cross-entity relationships, pairwise temporal alignment, and contextualized and culturally-grounded reasoning, providing a comprehensive evaluation. Extensive experimental results reveal the challenges posed by CTM and highlight potential avenues for improvement.

Reasoning about time is essential for Large Language Models (LLMs) to understand the world. Previous works focus on solving specific tasks, primarily on time-sensitive question answering. While these methods have proven effective, they cannot generalize to a wider spectrum of temporal reasoning tasks. Therefore, we propose a crucial question: Can we build a universal framework to handle a variety of temporal reasoning tasks? To that end, we systematically study 38 temporal reasoning tasks. Based on the observation that 19 tasks are directly related to mathematics, we first leverage the available mathematical dataset to set a solid foundation for temporal reasoning. However, the in-depth study indicates that focusing solely on mathematical enhancement falls short of addressing pure temporal reasoning tasks. To mitigate this limitation, we propose a simple but effective self-critic temporal optimization method to enhance the model's temporal reasoning capabilities without sacrificing general task abilities. Finally, we develop Timo, a model designed to excel in temporal reasoning at the 7B and 13B scales. Notably, Timo outperforms the counterpart LLMs by 10.0 and 7.6 in average accuracy scores and achieves the new state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance of comparable size. Extensive experiments further validate our framework's effectiveness and its generalization across diverse temporal tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/zhaochen0110/Timo.

Understanding causality has vital importance for various Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications. Beyond the labeled instances, conceptual explanations of the causality can provide deep understanding of the causal facts to facilitate the causal reasoning process. However, such explanation information still remains absent in existing causal reasoning resources. In this paper, we fill this gap by presenting a human-annotated explainable CAusal REasoning dataset (e-CARE), which contains over 21K causal reasoning questions, together with natural language formed explanations of the causal questions. Experimental results show that generating valid explanations for causal facts still remains especially challenging for the state-of-the-art models, and the explanation information can be helpful for promoting the accuracy and stability of causal reasoning models.

Reasoning about time is of fundamental importance. Many facts are time-dependent. For example, athletes change teams from time to time, and different government officials are elected periodically. Previous time-dependent question answering (QA) datasets tend to be biased in either their coverage of time spans or question types. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive probing dataset \tempreason to evaluate the temporal reasoning capability of large language models. Our dataset includes questions of three temporal reasoning levels. In addition, we also propose a novel learning framework to improve the temporal reasoning capability of large language models, based on temporal span extraction and time-sensitive reinforcement learning. We conducted experiments in closed book QA, open book QA, and reasoning QA settings and demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach. Our code and data are released on https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/TempReason.

Causality knowledge is vital to building robust AI systems. Deep learning models often perform poorly on tasks that require causal reasoning, which is often derived using some form of commonsense knowledge not immediately available in the input but implicitly inferred by humans. Prior work has unraveled spurious observational biases that models fall prey to in the absence of causality. While language representation models preserve contextual knowledge within learned embeddings, they do not factor in causal relationships during training. By blending causal relationships with the input features to an existing model that performs visual cognition tasks (such as scene understanding, video captioning, video question-answering, etc.), better performance can be achieved owing to the insight causal relationships bring about. Recently, several models have been proposed that have tackled the task of mining causal data from either the visual or textual modality. However, there does not exist widespread research that mines causal relationships by juxtaposing the visual and language modalities. While images offer a rich and easy-to-process resource for us to mine causality knowledge from, videos are denser and consist of naturally time-ordered events. Also, textual information offers details that could be implicit in videos. We propose iReason, a framework that infers visual-semantic commonsense knowledge using both videos and natural language captions. Furthermore, iReason's architecture integrates a causal rationalization module to aid the process of interpretability, error analysis and bias detection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of iReason using a two-pronged comparative analysis with language representation learning models (BERT, GPT-2) as well as current state-of-the-art multimodal causality models.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Despite the impressive performance of vision-language models (VLMs) on downstream tasks, their ability to understand and reason about causal relationships in visual inputs remains unclear. Robust causal reasoning is fundamental to solving complex high-level reasoning tasks, yet existing benchmarks often include a mixture of reasoning questions, and VLMs can frequently exploit object recognition and activity identification as shortcuts to arrive at the correct answers, making it challenging to truly assess their causal reasoning abilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce VQA-Causal and VCR-Causal, two new benchmarks specifically designed to isolate and rigorously evaluate VLMs' causal reasoning abilities. Our findings reveal that while VLMs excel in object and activity recognition, they perform poorly on causal reasoning tasks, often only marginally surpassing random guessing. Further analysis suggests that this limitation stems from a severe lack of causal expressions in widely used training datasets, where causal relationships are rarely explicitly conveyed. We additionally explore fine-tuning strategies with hard negative cases, showing that targeted fine-tuning can improve model's causal reasoning while maintaining generalization and downstream performance. Our study highlights a key gap in current VLMs and lays the groundwork for future work on causal understanding.

Despite recent advances in video understanding, the capabilities of Large Video Language Models (LVLMs) to perform video-based causal reasoning remains underexplored, largely due to the absence of relevant and dedicated benchmarks for evaluating causal reasoning in visually grounded and goal-driven settings. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark named Video-based long-form Causal Reasoning (VCRBench). We create VCRBench using procedural videos of simple everyday activities, where the steps are deliberately shuffled with each clip capturing a key causal event, to test whether LVLMs can identify, reason about, and correctly sequence the events needed to accomplish a specific goal. Moreover, the benchmark is carefully designed to prevent LVLMs from exploiting linguistic shortcuts, as seen in multiple-choice or binary QA formats, while also avoiding the challenges associated with evaluating open-ended QA. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art LVLMs on VCRBench suggests that these models struggle with video-based long-form causal reasoning, primarily due to their difficulty in modeling long-range causal dependencies directly from visual observations. As a simple step toward enabling such capabilities, we propose Recognition-Reasoning Decomposition (RRD), a modular approach that breaks video-based causal reasoning into two sub-tasks of video recognition and causal reasoning. Our experiments on VCRBench show that RRD significantly boosts accuracy on VCRBench, with gains of up to 25.2%. Finally, our thorough analysis reveals interesting insights, for instance, that LVLMs primarily rely on language knowledge for complex video-based long-form causal reasoning tasks.

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM-paper/.

When people reason about cause and effect, they often consider many competing "what if" scenarios before deciding which explanation fits best. Analogously, advanced language models capable of causal inference can consider multiple interventions and counterfactuals to judge the validity of causal claims. Crucially, this type of reasoning is less like a single calculation and more like an internal dialogue between alternative hypotheses. In this paper, we make this dialogue explicit through a dual-agent debate framework where one model provides a structured causal inference, and the other critically examines this reasoning for logical flaws. When disagreements arise, agents attempt to persuade each other, challenging each other's logic and revising their conclusions until they converge on a mutually agreed answer. To take advantage of this deliberative process, we specifically use reasoning language models, whose strengths in both causal inference and adversarial debate remain under-explored relative to standard large language models. We evaluate our approach on the CLadder dataset, a benchmark linking natural language questions to formally defined causal graphs across all three rungs of Pearl's ladder of causation. With Qwen3 and DeepSeek-R1 as debater agents, we demonstrate that multi-agent debate improves DeepSeek-R1's overall accuracy in causal inference from 78.03% to 87.45%, with the counterfactual category specifically improving from 67.94% to 80.04% accuracy. Similarly, Qwen3's overall accuracy improves from 84.16% to 89.41%, and counterfactual questions from 71.53% to 80.35%, showing that strong models can still benefit greatly from debate with weaker agents. Our results highlight the potential of reasoning models as building blocks for multi-agent systems in causal inference, and demonstrate the importance of diverse perspectives in causal problem-solving.

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate temporal reasoning behavior under progressively richer informational settings. TemporalBench adopts a four-tier task taxonomy that examines historical structure interpretation, context-free forecasting, contextual temporal reasoning, and event-conditioned prediction across four real-world domains: retail, healthcare, energy, and physical systems. By controlling access to future targets and contextual information, the benchmark enables a diagnostic analysis of whether models can correctly interpret temporal patterns, align them with external context, and adapt predictions when conditions change. Extensive baseline experiments show that strong numerical forecasting accuracy does not reliably translate into robust contextual or event-aware temporal reasoning; instead, existing agent frameworks exhibit fragmented strengths and systematic failure modes that remain largely hidden under forecasting-only benchmarks. The TemporalBench dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TemporalBench, and we additionally provide a public leaderboard at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Melady/TemporalBench_Leaderboard.

Many real-world systems exhibit temporal, dynamic behaviors, which are captured as time series of complex agent interactions. To perform temporal reasoning, current methods primarily encode temporal dynamics through simple sequence-based models. However, in general these models fail to efficiently capture the full spectrum of rich dynamics in the input, since the dynamics is not uniformly distributed. In particular, relevant information might be harder to extract and computing power is wasted for processing all individual timesteps, even if they contain no significant changes or no new information. Here we propose TimeGraphs, a novel approach that characterizes dynamic interactions as a hierarchical temporal graph, diverging from traditional sequential representations. Our approach models the interactions using a compact graph-based representation, enabling adaptive reasoning across diverse time scales. Adopting a self-supervised method, TimeGraphs constructs a multi-level event hierarchy from a temporal input, which is then used to efficiently reason about the unevenly distributed dynamics. This construction process is scalable and incremental to accommodate streaming data. We evaluate TimeGraphs on multiple datasets with complex, dynamic agent interactions, including a football simulator, the Resistance game, and the MOMA human activity dataset. The results demonstrate both robustness and efficiency of TimeGraphs on a range of temporal reasoning tasks. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance and leads to a performance increase of up to 12.2% on event prediction and recognition tasks over current approaches. Our experiments further demonstrate a wide array of capabilities including zero-shot generalization, robustness in case of data sparsity, and adaptability to streaming data flow.

The ability to perform causal reasoning is widely considered a core feature of intelligence. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can coherently reason about causality. Much of the existing work in natural language processing (NLP) focuses on evaluating commonsense causal reasoning in LLMs, thus failing to assess whether a model can perform causal inference in accordance with a set of well-defined formal rules. To address this, we propose a new NLP task, causal inference in natural language, inspired by the "causal inference engine" postulated by Judea Pearl et al. We compose a large dataset, CLadder, with 10K samples: based on a collection of causal graphs and queries (associational, interventional, and counterfactual), we obtain symbolic questions and ground-truth answers, through an oracle causal inference engine. These are then translated into natural language. We evaluate multiple LLMs on our dataset, and we introduce and evaluate a bespoke chain-of-thought prompting strategy, CausalCoT. We show that our task is highly challenging for LLMs, and we conduct an in-depth analysis to gain deeper insights into the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs. Our data is open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalNLP/cladder, and our code can be found at https://github.com/causalNLP/cladder.

The facts and time in the document are intricately intertwined, making temporal reasoning over documents challenging. Previous work models time implicitly, making it difficult to handle such complex relationships. To address this issue, we propose MTGER, a novel Multi-view Temporal Graph Enhanced Temporal Reasoning framework for temporal reasoning over time-involved documents. Concretely, MTGER explicitly models the temporal relationships among facts by multi-view temporal graphs. On the one hand, the heterogeneous temporal graphs explicitly model the temporal and discourse relationships among facts; on the other hand, the multi-view mechanism captures both time-focused and fact-focused information, allowing the two views to complement each other through adaptive fusion. To further improve the implicit reasoning capability of the model, we design a self-supervised time-comparing objective. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the TimeQA and SituatedQA datasets. Furthermore, MTGER gives more consistent answers under question perturbations.

While interpretability research has shed light on some internal algorithms utilized by transformer-based LLMs, reasoning in natural language, with its deep contextuality and ambiguity, defies easy categorization. As a result, formulating clear and motivating questions for circuit analysis that rely on well-defined in-domain and out-of-domain examples required for causal interventions is challenging. Although significant work has investigated circuits for specific tasks, such as indirect object identification (IOI), deciphering natural language reasoning through circuits remains difficult due to its inherent complexity. In this work, we take initial steps to characterize causal reasoning in LLMs by analyzing clear-cut cause-and-effect sentences like "I opened an umbrella because it started raining," where causal interventions may be possible through carefully crafted scenarios using GPT-2 small. Our findings indicate that causal syntax is localized within the first 2-3 layers, while certain heads in later layers exhibit heightened sensitivity to nonsensical variations of causal sentences. This suggests that models may infer reasoning by (1) detecting syntactic cues and (2) isolating distinct heads in the final layers that focus on semantic relationships.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for generating coherent text, understanding context, and performing reasoning tasks. However, they struggle with temporal reasoning, which requires processing time-related information such as event sequencing, durations, and inter-temporal relationships. These capabilities are critical for applications including question answering, scheduling, and historical analysis. In this paper, we introduce TISER, a novel framework that enhances the temporal reasoning abilities of LLMs through a multi-stage process that combines timeline construction with iterative self-reflection. Our approach leverages test-time scaling to extend the length of reasoning traces, enabling models to capture complex temporal dependencies more effectively. This strategy not only boosts reasoning accuracy but also improves the traceability of the inference process. Experimental results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across multiple benchmarks, including out-of-distribution test sets, and reveal that TISER enables smaller open-source models to surpass larger closed-weight models on challenging temporal reasoning tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in various NLP tasks, yet they still face significant challenges in reasoning and arithmetic. Temporal reasoning, a critical component of natural language understanding, has raised increasing research attention. However, comprehensive testing of Allen's interval relations (e.g., before, after, during) -- a fundamental framework for temporal relationships -- remains underexplored. To fill this gap, we present ChronoSense, a new benchmark for evaluating LLMs' temporal understanding. It includes 16 tasks, focusing on identifying the Allen relation between two temporal events and temporal arithmetic, using both abstract events and real-world data from Wikidata. We assess the performance of seven recent LLMs using this benchmark and the results indicate that models handle Allen relations, even symmetrical ones, quite differently. Moreover, the findings suggest that the models may rely on memorization to answer time-related questions. Overall, the models' low performance highlights the need for improved temporal understanding in LLMs and ChronoSense offers a robust framework for future research in this area. Our dataset and the source code are available at https://github.com/duyguislakoglu/chronosense.

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

Causal reasoning, the ability to identify cause-and-effect relationship, is crucial in human thinking. Although large language models (LLMs) succeed in many NLP tasks, it is still challenging for them to conduct complex causal reasoning like abductive reasoning and counterfactual reasoning. Given the fact that programming code may express causal relations more often and explicitly with conditional statements like ``if``, we want to explore whether Code-LLMs acquire better causal reasoning abilities. Our experiments show that compared to text-only LLMs, Code-LLMs with code prompts are significantly better in causal reasoning. We further intervene on the prompts from different aspects, and discover that the programming structure is crucial in code prompt design, while Code-LLMs are robust towards format perturbations.

Forecasting future links is a central task in temporal graph (TG) reasoning, requiring models to leverage historical interactions to predict upcoming ones. Traditional neural approaches, such as temporal graph neural networks, achieve strong performance but lack explainability and cannot be applied to unseen graphs without retraining. Recent studies have begun to explore using large language models (LLMs) for graph reasoning, but most of them are constrained to static graphs or small synthetic TGs and lack the evaluation of the quality of reasoning traces generated by LLMs. In this work, we present Reasoning-Enhanced Learning for Temporal Graphs (ReaL-TG), a reinforcement learning framework that fine-tunes LLMs to perform explainable link forecasting on real-world TGs. ReaL-TG uses outcome-based reward to encourage models to self-explore reasoning strategies from graph structure and to produce explanations that directly justify their predictions. To enable evaluation on LLM-generated reasoning traces, we propose a new evaluation protocol combining ranking metrics with an LLM-as-a-Judge system that assesses both the quality of reasoning and the impact of hallucinations. Experiments with ReaL-TG-4B, obtained by fine-tuning Qwen3-4B under our framework, show that it outperforms much larger frontier LLMs, including GPT-5 mini, on ranking metrics, while producing high-quality explanations confirmed by both the LLM judge and human evaluation.

Rule-based reasoning, a fundamental type of legal reasoning, enables us to draw conclusions by accurately applying a rule to a set of facts. We explore causal language models as rule-based reasoners, specifically with respect to compositional rules - rules consisting of multiple elements which form a complex logical expression. Reasoning about compositional rules is challenging because it requires multiple reasoning steps, and attending to the logical relationships between elements. We introduce a new prompting method, Chain of Logic, which elicits rule-based reasoning through decomposition (solving elements as independent threads of logic), and recomposition (recombining these sub-answers to resolve the underlying logical expression). This method was inspired by the IRAC (Issue, Rule, Application, Conclusion) framework, a sequential reasoning approach used by lawyers. We evaluate chain of logic across eight rule-based reasoning tasks involving three distinct compositional rules from the LegalBench benchmark and demonstrate it consistently outperforms other prompting methods, including chain of thought and self-ask, using open-source and commercial language models.

As Large Language Model (LLM) agents are increasingly tasked with high-stakes autonomous decision-making, the transparency of their reasoning processes has become a critical safety concern. While Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting allows agents to generate human-readable reasoning traces, it remains unclear whether these traces are faithful generative drivers of the model's output or merely post-hoc rationalizations. We introduce Project Ariadne, a novel XAI framework that utilizes Structural Causal Models (SCMs) and counterfactual logic to audit the causal integrity of agentic reasoning. Unlike existing interpretability methods that rely on surface-level textual similarity, Project Ariadne performs hard interventions (do-calculus) on intermediate reasoning nodes -- systematically inverting logic, negating premises, and reversing factual claims -- to measure the Causal Sensitivity (φ) of the terminal answer. Our empirical evaluation of state-of-the-art models reveals a persistent Faithfulness Gap. We define and detect a widespread failure mode termed Causal Decoupling, where agents exhibit a violation density (ρ) of up to 0.77 in factual and scientific domains. In these instances, agents arrive at identical conclusions despite contradictory internal logic, proving that their reasoning traces function as "Reasoning Theater" while decision-making is governed by latent parametric priors. Our findings suggest that current agentic architectures are inherently prone to unfaithful explanation, and we propose the Ariadne Score as a new benchmark for aligning stated logic with model action.

Large language models (LLMs) learn temporal concepts from the co-occurrence of related tokens in a sequence. Compared with conventional text generation, temporal reasoning, which reaches a conclusion based on mathematical, logical and commonsense knowledge, is more challenging. In this paper, we propose TempGraph-LLM, a new paradigm towards text-based temporal reasoning. To be specific, we first teach LLMs to translate the context into a temporal graph. A synthetic dataset, which is fully controllable and requires minimal supervision, is constructed for pre-training on this task. We prove in experiments that LLMs benefit from the pre-training on other tasks. On top of that, we guide LLMs to perform symbolic reasoning with the strategies of Chain of Thoughts (CoTs) bootstrapping and special data augmentation. We observe that CoTs with symbolic reasoning bring more consistent and reliable results than those using free text.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive reasoning abilities, but struggle with temporal understanding, especially when questions involve multiple entities, compound operators, and evolving event sequences. Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs), which capture vast amounts of temporal facts in a structured format, offer a reliable source for temporal reasoning. However, existing TKG-based LLM reasoning methods still struggle with four major challenges: maintaining temporal faithfulness in multi-hop reasoning, achieving multi-entity temporal synchronization, adapting retrieval to diverse temporal operators, and reusing prior reasoning experience for stability and efficiency. To address these issues, we propose MemoTime, a memory-augmented temporal knowledge graph framework that enhances LLM reasoning through structured grounding, recursive reasoning, and continual experience learning. MemoTime decomposes complex temporal questions into a hierarchical Tree of Time, enabling operator-aware reasoning that enforces monotonic timestamps and co-constrains multiple entities under unified temporal bounds. A dynamic evidence retrieval layer adaptively selects operator-specific retrieval strategies, while a self-evolving experience memory stores verified reasoning traces, toolkit decisions, and sub-question embeddings for cross-type reuse. Comprehensive experiments on multiple temporal QA benchmarks show that MemoTime achieves overall state-of-the-art results, outperforming the strong baseline by up to 24.0%. Furthermore, MemoTime enables smaller models (e.g., Qwen3-4B) to achieve reasoning performance comparable to that of GPT-4-Turbo.

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable ability in various language tasks, especially with their emergent in-context learning capability. Extending LLMs to incorporate visual inputs, large vision-language models (LVLMs) have shown impressive performance in tasks such as recognition and visual question answering (VQA). Despite increasing interest in the utility of LLMs in causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery and counterfactual reasoning, there has been relatively little work showcasing the abilities of LVLMs on visual causal reasoning tasks. We take this opportunity to formally introduce a comprehensive causal reasoning benchmark for multi-modal in-context learning from LVLMs. Our CausalVLBench encompasses three representative tasks: causal structure inference, intervention target prediction, and counterfactual prediction. We evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art open-source LVLMs on our causal reasoning tasks across three causal representation learning datasets and demonstrate their fundamental strengths and weaknesses. We hope that our benchmark elucidates the drawbacks of existing vision-language models and motivates new directions and paradigms in improving the visual causal reasoning abilities of LVLMs.

The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We conduct a "behavorial" study of LLMs to benchmark their capability in generating causal arguments. Across a wide range of tasks, we find that LLMs can generate text corresponding to correct causal arguments with high probability, surpassing the best-performing existing methods. Algorithms based on GPT-3.5 and 4 outperform existing algorithms on a pairwise causal discovery task (97%, 13 points gain), counterfactual reasoning task (92%, 20 points gain) and event causality (86% accuracy in determining necessary and sufficient causes in vignettes). We perform robustness checks across tasks and show that the capabilities cannot be explained by dataset memorization alone, especially since LLMs generalize to novel datasets that were created after the training cutoff date. That said, LLMs exhibit unpredictable failure modes, and we discuss the kinds of errors that may be improved and what are the fundamental limits of LLM-based answers. Overall, by operating on the text metadata, LLMs bring capabilities so far understood to be restricted to humans, such as using collected knowledge to generate causal graphs or identifying background causal context from natural language. As a result, LLMs may be used by human domain experts to save effort in setting up a causal analysis, one of the biggest impediments to the widespread adoption of causal methods. Given that LLMs ignore the actual data, our results also point to a fruitful research direction of developing algorithms that combine LLMs with existing causal techniques. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/py-why/pywhy-llm.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically trained on fixed snapshots of the web, which means that their knowledge becomes stale and their predictions risk temporal leakage: relying on information that lies in the future relative to a query. We tackle this problem by pre-training from scratch a set of GPT-style experts on disjoint two-year slices of a 2013-2024 corpus and combining them through TiMoE, a Time-aware Mixture of Language Experts. At inference time, TiMoE masks all experts whose training window ends after the query timestamp and merges the remaining log-probabilities in a shared space, guaranteeing strict causal validity while retaining the breadth of multi-period knowledge. We also release TSQA, a 10k-question benchmark whose alternatives are explicitly labelled as past, future or irrelevant, allowing fine-grained measurement of temporal hallucinations. Experiments on eight standard NLP tasks plus TSQA show that a co-adapted TiMoE variant matches or exceeds the best single-period expert and cuts future-knowledge errors by up to 15%. Our results demonstrate that modular, time-segmented pre-training paired with causal routing is a simple yet effective path toward LLMs that stay chronologically grounded without sacrificing general performance much. We open source our code at TiMoE (Github): https://github.com/epfml/TiMoE

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

Latent reasoning compresses the chain-of-thought (CoT) into continuous hidden states, yet existing methods rely on dense latent transitions that remain difficult to interpret and control. Meanwhile, sparse representation models uncover human-interpretable semantic features but remain largely confined to post-hoc analysis. We reconcile this tension by proposing LSTR (Latent Sparse Transcoder Reasoning), a latent reasoning framework that elevates functional sparse transcoders into active reasoning operators to perform multi-step computation through sparse semantic transitions. At its core, LSTR employs a Latent Transition Transcoder (LTT) with a residual skip architecture that decouples linear manifold transport from sparse semantic updates, enabling controllable semantic resolution via explicit sparsity constraints. Extensive experiments show that LSTR preserves reasoning accuracy and compression efficiency while substantially improving interpretability over dense latent baselines. Causal interventions and trajectory analyses further demonstrate that these sparse features act as both interpretable and causally effective operators in the reasoning process.

With the rise of Large Language Models(LLMs), it has become crucial to understand their capabilities and limitations in deciphering and explaining the complex web of causal relationships that language entails. Current methods use either explicit or implicit causal reasoning, yet there is a strong need for a unified approach combining both to tackle a wide array of causal relationships more effectively. This research proposes a novel architecture called Context Aware Reasoning Enhancement with Counterfactual Analysis(CARE CA) framework to enhance causal reasoning and explainability. The proposed framework incorporates an explicit causal detection module with ConceptNet and counterfactual statements, as well as implicit causal detection through LLMs. Our framework goes one step further with a layer of counterfactual explanations to accentuate LLMs understanding of causality. The knowledge from ConceptNet enhances the performance of multiple causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery, causal identification and counterfactual reasoning. The counterfactual sentences add explicit knowledge of the not caused by scenarios. By combining these powerful modules, our model aims to provide a deeper understanding of causal relationships, enabling enhanced interpretability. Evaluation of benchmark datasets shows improved performance across all metrics, such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores. We also introduce CausalNet, a new dataset accompanied by our code, to facilitate further research in this domain.

Temporal knowledge graphs represent temporal facts (s,p,o,tau) relating a subject s and an object o via a relation label p at time tau, where tau could be a time point or time interval. Temporal knowledge graphs may exhibit static temporal patterns at distinct points in time and dynamic temporal patterns between different timestamps. In order to learn a rich set of static and dynamic temporal patterns and apply them for inference, several embedding approaches have been suggested in the literature. However, as most of them resort to single underlying embedding spaces, their capability to model all kinds of temporal patterns was severely limited by having to adhere to the geometric property of their one embedding space. We lift this limitation by an embedding approach that maps temporal facts into a product space of several heterogeneous geometric subspaces with distinct geometric properties, i.e.\ Complex, Dual, and Split-complex spaces. In addition, we propose a temporal-geometric attention mechanism to integrate information from different geometric subspaces conveniently according to the captured relational and temporal information. Experimental results on standard temporal benchmark datasets favorably evaluate our approach against state-of-the-art models.

Causal thinking enables humans to understand not just what is seen, but why it happens. To replicate this capability in modern AI systems, we introduce the task of visual causal discovery. It requires models to infer cause-and-effect relations among visual entities across diverse scenarios instead of merely perceiving their presence. To this end, we first construct the Visual Causal Graph dataset (VCG-32K), a large-scale collection of over 32,000 images annotated with entity-level causal graphs, and further develop CauSight, a novel vision-language model to perform visual causal discovery through causally aware reasoning. Our training recipe integrates three components: (1) training data curation from VCG-32K, (2) Tree-of-Causal-Thought (ToCT) for synthesizing reasoning trajectories, and (3) reinforcement learning with a designed causal reward to refine the reasoning policy. Experiments show that CauSight outperforms GPT-4.1 on visual causal discovery, achieving over a threefold performance boost (21% absolute gain). Our code, model, and dataset are fully open-sourced at project page: https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauSight.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) traces have been shown to improve performance of large language models on a plethora of reasoning tasks, yet there is no consensus on the mechanism by which this boost is achieved. To shed more light on this, we introduce Causal CoT Graphs (CCGraphs), which are directed acyclic graphs automatically extracted from reasoning traces that model fine-grained causal dependencies in language-model outputs. A collection of 1671 mathematical reasoning problems from MATH500, GSM8K, and AIME, together with their associated CCGraphs, has been compiled into our dataset -- KisMATH. Our detailed empirical analysis with 15 open-weight LLMs shows that (i) reasoning nodes in the CCGraphs are causal contributors to the final answer, which we argue is constitutive of reasoning; and (ii) LLMs emphasize the reasoning paths captured by the CCGraphs, indicating that the models internally realize structures similar to our graphs. KisMATH enables controlled, graph-aligned interventions and opens avenues for further investigation into the role of CoT in LLM reasoning.

We present a conditional text generation framework that posits sentential expressions of possible causes and effects. This framework depends on two novel resources we develop in the course of this work: a very large-scale collection of English sentences expressing causal patterns CausalBank; and a refinement over previous work on constructing large lexical causal knowledge graphs Cause Effect Graph. Further, we extend prior work in lexically-constrained decoding to support disjunctive positive constraints. Human assessment confirms that our approach gives high-quality and diverse outputs. Finally, we use CausalBank to perform continued training of an encoder supporting a recent state-of-the-art model for causal reasoning, leading to a 3-point improvement on the COPA challenge set, with no change in model architecture.

Multi-hop logical reasoning over knowledge graph (KG) plays a fundamental role in many artificial intelligence tasks. Recent complex query embedding (CQE) methods for reasoning focus on static KGs, while temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) have not been fully explored. Reasoning over TKGs has two challenges: 1. The query should answer entities or timestamps; 2. The operators should consider both set logic on entity set and temporal logic on timestamp set. To bridge this gap, we define the multi-hop logical reasoning problem on TKGs. With generated three datasets, we propose the first temporal CQE named Temporal Feature-Logic Embedding framework (TFLEX) to answer the temporal complex queries. We utilize vector logic to compute the logic part of Temporal Feature-Logic embeddings, thus naturally modeling all First-Order Logic (FOL) operations on entity set. In addition, our framework extends vector logic on timestamp set to cope with three extra temporal operators (After, Before and Between). Experiments on numerous query patterns demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims at determining whether there is a causal relation between two event mentions. Conventional prompt learning designs a prompt template to first predict an answer word and then maps it to the final decision. Unlike conventional prompts, we argue that predicting an answer word may not be a necessary prerequisite for the ECI task. Instead, we can first make a deterministic assumption on the existence of causal relation between two events and then evaluate its rationality to either accept or reject the assumption. The design motivation is to try the most utilization of the encyclopedia-like knowledge embedded in a pre-trained language model. In light of such considerations, we propose a deterministic assumption prompt learning model, called DAPrompt, for the ECI task. In particular, we design a simple deterministic assumption template concatenating with the input event pair, which includes two masks as predicted events' tokens. We use the probabilities of predicted events to evaluate the assumption rationality for the final event causality decision. Experiments on the EventStoryLine corpus and Causal-TimeBank corpus validate our design objective in terms of significant performance improvements over the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Reasoning over dynamic visual content remains a central challenge for multimodal large language models. Recent thinking models generate explicit reasoning traces for interpretability; however, their reasoning often appears convincing while being logically inconsistent or weakly grounded in visual evidence. We identify and formalize these issues through two diagnostic metrics: Think Answer Consistency (TAC), which measures the alignment between reasoning and answers, and Video Attention Score (VAS), which captures the extent to which reasoning depends on visual versus textual cues. Analysis across 11 video reasoning benchmarks shows that current models rely heavily on linguistic priors rather than visual content. To address this, we propose a reinforcement learning approach that enhances both temporal precision and reasoning consistency. Our approach combines timestamp aware supervised fine tuning with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) guided by a novel Temporal Alignment Reward (TAR). This dual step post training stage encourages temporally aligned and causally coherent video reasoning. The resulting model, Video R2, achieves consistently higher TAC, VAS, and accuracy across multiple benchmarks, demonstrating that improvements in temporal alignment and reasoning coherence lead to more accurate and trustworthy video understanding. Code: https://github.com/mbzuai-oryx/Video-R2

Large language models (LLMs) have showcased remarkable reasoning capabilities, yet they remain susceptible to errors, particularly in temporal reasoning tasks involving complex temporal logic. Existing research has explored LLM performance on temporal reasoning using diverse datasets and benchmarks. However, these studies often rely on real-world data that LLMs may have encountered during pre-training or employ anonymization techniques that can inadvertently introduce factual inconsistencies. In this work, we address these limitations by introducing novel synthetic datasets specifically designed to assess LLM temporal reasoning abilities in various scenarios. The diversity of question types across these datasets enables systematic investigation into the impact of the problem structure, size, question type, fact order, and other factors on LLM performance. Our findings provide valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of current LLMs in temporal reasoning tasks. To foster further research in this area, we are open-sourcing the datasets and evaluation framework used in our experiments: https://huggingface.co/datasets/baharef/ToT.

Time-series analysis is critical for a wide range of fields such as healthcare, finance, transportation, and energy, among many others. The practical applications often involve analyzing time-series data alongside contextual information in the form of natural language to support informed decisions. However, current time-series models are limited in their ability to perform reasoning that involves both time-series and their textual content. In this work, we address this gap by introducing Chat-TS, a large language model (LLM) based framework, designed to support reasoning over time series and textual data. Unlike traditional models, Chat-TS integrates time-series tokens into LLMs' vocabulary, enhancing its reasoning ability over both modalities without compromising the core natural language capabilities, enabling practical analysis and reasoning across modalities. To support learning and evaluation in this setup, we contribute new datasets: the TS Instruct Training Dataset which pairs diverse time-series data with relevant text instructions and responses for instruction tuning, the TS Instruct Question and Answer (QA) Gold Dataset which provides multiple-choice questions designed to evaluate multimodal reasoning, and a TS Instruct Quantitative Probing Set which contains a small subset of the TS Instruct QA tasks alongside math and decision-making questions for LLM evaluation. We designed a training strategy to preserve the inherent reasoning capabilities of LLMs while augmenting them for time-series reasoning. Experiments show that Chat-TS achieves state-of-the-art performance in multi-modal reasoning tasks by maintaining strong natural language proficiency while improving time-series reasoning. ~To ensure replicability and facilitate future research, all models, datasets, and code will be available at [\texttt{Github-URL].}

For text-based AI systems to interact in the real world, causal reasoning is an essential skill. Since interventional data is costly to generate, we study to what extent an agent can learn causal reasoning from passive data. Specifically, we consider an axiomatic training setup where an agent learns from multiple demonstrations of a causal axiom (or rule), rather than incorporating the axiom as an inductive bias or inferring it from data values. A key question is whether the agent would learn to generalize from the axiom demonstrations to new scenarios. For example, if a transformer model is trained on demonstrations of the causal transitivity axiom over small graphs, would it generalize to applying the transitivity axiom over large graphs? Our results, based on a novel axiomatic training scheme, indicate that such generalization is possible. We consider the task of inferring whether a variable causes another variable, given a causal graph structure. We find that a 67 million parameter transformer model, when trained on linear causal chains (along with some noisy variations) can generalize well to new kinds of graphs, including longer causal chains, causal chains with reversed order, and graphs with branching; even when it is not explicitly trained for such settings. Our model performs at par (or even better) than many larger language models such as GPT-4, Gemini Pro, and Phi-3. Overall, our axiomatic training framework provides a new paradigm of learning causal reasoning from passive data that can be used to learn arbitrary axioms, as long as sufficient demonstrations can be generated.

Chain-of-thought emerges as a promising technique for eliciting reasoning capabilities from Large Language Models (LLMs). However, it does not always improve task performance or accurately represent reasoning processes, leaving unresolved questions about its usage. In this paper, we diagnose the underlying mechanism by comparing the reasoning process of LLMs with humans, using causal analysis to understand the relationships between the problem instruction, reasoning, and the answer in LLMs. Our empirical study reveals that LLMs often deviate from the ideal causal chain, resulting in spurious correlations and potential consistency errors (inconsistent reasoning and answers). We also examine various factors influencing the causal structure, finding that in-context learning with examples strengthens it, while post-training techniques like supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on human feedback weaken it. To our surprise, the causal structure cannot be strengthened by enlarging the model size only, urging research on new techniques. We hope that this preliminary study will shed light on understanding and improving the reasoning process in LLM.

Agents in the real world must make not only logical but also timely judgments. This requires continuous awareness of the dynamic environment: hazards emerge, opportunities arise, and other agents act, while the agent's reasoning is still unfolding. Despite advances in language model reasoning, existing approaches fail to account for this dynamic nature. We introduce real-time reasoning as a new problem formulation for agents in evolving environments and build Real-Time Reasoning Gym to demonstrate it. We study two paradigms for deploying language models in agents: (1) reactive agents, which employ language models with bounded reasoning computation for rapid responses, and (2) planning agents, which allow extended reasoning computation for complex problems. Our experiments show that even state-of-the-art models struggle with making logical and timely judgments in either paradigm. To address this limitation, we propose AgileThinker, which simultaneously engages both reasoning paradigms. AgileThinker consistently outperforms agents engaging only one reasoning paradigm as the task difficulty and time pressure rise, effectively balancing reasoning depth and response latency. Our work establishes real-time reasoning as a critical testbed for developing practical agents and provides a foundation for research in temporally constrained AI systems, highlighting a path toward real-time capable agents.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) spend substantial test-time compute on long chain-of-thought (CoT) traces, but what *characterizes* an effective CoT remains unclear. While prior work reports gains from lengthening CoTs and increasing review (revisiting earlier steps) via appended *wait* tokens, recent studies suggest that shorter thinking can outperform longer traces. We therefore conduct a systematic evaluation across ten LRMs on math and scientific reasoning. Contrary to the "longer-is-better" narrative, we find that both naive CoT lengthening and increased review are associated with *lower* accuracy. As CoT unfolds step by step, token-level metrics can conflate verbosity with process quality. We introduce a graph view of CoT to extract structure and identify a single statistic-the *Failed-Step Fraction (FSF)*, the fraction of steps in abandoned branches-that consistently outpredicts length and review ratio for correctness across models. To probe causality, we design two interventions. First, we rank candidate CoTs by each metric at test time, where FSF yields the largest pass@1 gains; second, we edit CoTs to remove failed branches, which significantly improves accuracy, indicating that failed branches bias subsequent reasoning. Taken together, these results characterize effective CoTs as those that *fail less* and support *structure-aware* test-time scaling over indiscriminately generating long CoT.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities but lack robust temporal intelligence, struggling to integrate reasoning about the past with predictions and plausible generations of the future. Meanwhile, existing methods typically target isolated temporal skills, such as question answering about past events or basic forecasting, and exhibit poor generalization, particularly when dealing with events beyond their knowledge cutoff or requiring creative foresight. To address these limitations, we introduce Time-R1, the first framework to endow a moderate-sized (3B-parameter) LLM with comprehensive temporal abilities: understanding, prediction, and creative generation. Our approach features a novel three-stage development path; the first two constitute a reinforcement learning (RL) curriculum driven by a meticulously designed dynamic rule-based reward system. This framework progressively builds (1) foundational temporal understanding and logical event-time mappings from historical data, (2) future event prediction skills for events beyond its knowledge cutoff, and finally (3) enables remarkable generalization to creative future scenario generation without any fine-tuning. Strikingly, experiments demonstrate that Time-R1 outperforms models over 200 times larger, including the state-of-the-art 671B DeepSeek-R1, on highly challenging future event prediction and creative scenario generation benchmarks. This work provides strong evidence that thoughtfully engineered, progressive RL fine-tuning allows smaller, efficient models to achieve superior temporal performance, offering a practical and scalable path towards truly time-aware AI. To foster further research, we also release Time-Bench, a large-scale multi-task temporal reasoning dataset derived from 10 years of news data, and our series of Time-R1 checkpoints.

Counterfactual reasoning is widely recognized as one of the most challenging and intricate aspects of causality in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of large language models (LLMs) in counterfactual reasoning. In contrast to previous studies that primarily focus on commonsense causal reasoning, where LLMs often rely on prior knowledge for inference, we specifically assess their ability to perform counterfactual inference using a set of formal rules. To support this evaluation, we introduce a new benchmark dataset, CounterBench, comprising 1K counterfactual reasoning questions. The dataset is designed with varying levels of difficulty, diverse causal graph structures, distinct types of counterfactual questions, and multiple nonsensical name variants. Our experiments demonstrate that counterfactual reasoning poses a significant challenge for LLMs, with most models performing at levels comparable to random guessing. To enhance LLM's counterfactual reasoning ability, we propose a novel reasoning paradigm, CoIn, which guides LLMs through iterative reasoning and backtracking to systematically explore counterfactual solutions. Experimental results show that our method significantly improves LLM performance on counterfactual reasoning tasks and consistently enhances performance across different LLMs.Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/CounterBench/CounterBench.

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

Time plays a critical role in how information is generated, retrieved, and interpreted. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of Temporal Information Retrieval and Temporal Question Answering, two research areas aimed at handling and understanding time-sensitive information. As the amount of time-stamped content from sources like news articles, web archives, and knowledge bases increases, systems must address challenges such as detecting temporal intent, normalizing time expressions, ordering events, and reasoning over evolving or ambiguous facts. These challenges are critical across many dynamic and time-sensitive domains, from news and encyclopedias to science, history, and social media. We review both traditional approaches and modern neural methods, including those that use transformer models and Large Language Models (LLMs). We also review recent advances in temporal language modeling, multi-hop reasoning, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), alongside benchmark datasets and evaluation strategies that test temporal robustness, recency awareness, and generalization.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have showcased exceptional ability in causal reasoning from textual information. However, will these causalities remain straightforward for Vision Large Language Models (VLLMs) when only visual hints are provided? Motivated by this, we propose a novel Multimodal Causal Reasoning benchmark, namely MuCR, to challenge VLLMs to infer semantic cause-and-effect relationship when solely relying on visual cues such as action, appearance, clothing, and environment. Specifically, we introduce a prompt-driven image synthesis approach to create siamese images with embedded semantic causality and visual cues, which can effectively evaluate VLLMs' causal reasoning capabilities. Additionally, we develop tailored metrics from multiple perspectives, including image-level match, phrase-level understanding, and sentence-level explanation, to comprehensively assess VLLMs' comprehension abilities. Our extensive experiments reveal that the current state-of-the-art VLLMs are not as skilled at multimodal causal reasoning as we might have hoped. Furthermore, we perform a comprehensive analysis to understand these models' shortcomings from different views and suggest directions for future research. We hope MuCR can serve as a valuable resource and foundational benchmark in multimodal causal reasoning research. The project is available at: https://github.com/Zhiyuan-Li-John/MuCR

True intelligence hinges on the ability to uncover and leverage hidden causal relations. Despite significant progress in AI and computer vision (CV), there remains a lack of benchmarks for assessing models' abilities to infer latent causality from complex visual data. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{Causal3D}, a novel and comprehensive benchmark that integrates structured data (tables) with corresponding visual representations (images) to evaluate causal reasoning. Designed within a systematic framework, Causal3D comprises 19 3D-scene datasets capturing diverse causal relations, views, and backgrounds, enabling evaluations across scenes of varying complexity. We assess multiple state-of-the-art methods, including classical causal discovery, causal representation learning, and large/vision-language models (LLMs/VLMs). Our experiments show that as causal structures grow more complex without prior knowledge, performance declines significantly, highlighting the challenges even advanced methods face in complex causal scenarios. Causal3D serves as a vital resource for advancing causal reasoning in CV and fostering trustworthy AI in critical domains.

Human cognition is deeply intertwined with a sense of time, known as Chronoception. This sense allows us to judge how long facts remain valid and when knowledge becomes outdated. Despite progress in vision, language, and motor control, AI still struggles to reason about temporal validity. We introduce Chronocept, the first benchmark to model temporal validity as a continuous probability distribution over time. Using skew-normal curves fitted along semantically decomposed temporal axes, Chronocept captures nuanced patterns of emergence, decay, and peak relevance. It includes two datasets: Benchmark I (atomic facts) and Benchmark II (multi-sentence passages). Annotations show strong inter-annotator agreement (84% and 89%). Our baselines predict curve parameters - location, scale, and skewness - enabling interpretable, generalizable learning and outperforming classification-based approaches. Chronocept fills a foundational gap in AI's temporal reasoning, supporting applications in knowledge grounding, fact-checking, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and proactive agents. Code and data are publicly available.

The traditional i.i.d.-based learning paradigm faces inherent challenges in addressing causal relationships, which has become increasingly evident with the rise of applications in causal representation learning. Our understanding of causality naturally requires a perspective as the creator rather than observer, as the ``what...if'' questions only hold within the possible world we conceive. The traditional perspective limits capturing dynamic causal outcomes and leads to compensatory efforts such as the reliance on hidden confounders. This paper lays the groundwork for the new perspective, which enables the relation-first modeling paradigm for causality. Also, it introduces the Relation-Indexed Representation Learning (RIRL) as a practical implementation, supported by experiments that validate its efficacy.

Causal reasoning is a cornerstone of how humans interpret the world. To model and reason about causality, causal graphs offer a concise yet effective solution. Given the impressive advancements in language models, a crucial question arises: can they really understand causal graphs? To this end, we pioneer an investigation into language models' understanding of causal graphs. Specifically, we develop a framework to define causal graph understanding, by assessing language models' behaviors through four practical criteria derived from diverse disciplines (e.g., philosophy and psychology). We then develop CLEAR, a novel benchmark that defines three complexity levels and encompasses 20 causal graph-based tasks across these levels. Finally, based on our framework and benchmark, we conduct extensive experiments on six leading language models and summarize five empirical findings. Our results indicate that while language models demonstrate a preliminary understanding of causal graphs, significant potential for improvement remains. Our project website is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CLEAR.

Despite remarkable advances in the field, LLMs remain unreliable in distinguishing causation from correlation. Recent results from the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs -- such as GPT-4 (F1 score: 29.08) -- only marginally outperform random baselines (Random Uniform, F1 score: 20.38), indicating limited capacity of generalization. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel structured approach: rather than directly answering causal queries, we provide the model with the capability to structure its thinking by guiding the model to build a structured knowledge graph, systematically encoding the provided correlational premises, to answer the causal queries. This intermediate representation significantly enhances the model's causal capabilities. Experiments on the test subset of the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark with Qwen3-32B model (reasoning model) show substantial gains over standard direct prompting methods, improving F1 scores from 32.71 to 48.26 (over 47.5% relative increase), along with notable improvements in precision and recall. These results underscore the effectiveness of providing the model with the capability to structure its thinking and highlight its promising potential for broader generalization across diverse causal inference tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant success across various domains. However, the inherent complexity of causal problems and causal theory poses challenges in accurately describing them in natural language, making it difficult for LLMs to comprehend and use them effectively. Causal methods are not easily conveyed through natural language, which hinders LLMs' ability to apply them accurately. Additionally, causal datasets are typically tabular, while LLMs excel in handling natural language data, creating a structural mismatch that impedes effective reasoning with tabular data. This lack of causal reasoning capability limits the development of LLMs. To address these challenges, we have equipped the LLM with causal tools within an agent framework, named the Causal Agent, enabling it to tackle causal problems. The causal agent comprises tools, memory, and reasoning modules. In the tools module, the causal agent applies causal methods to align tabular data with natural language. In the reasoning module, the causal agent employs the ReAct framework to perform reasoning through multiple iterations with the tools. In the memory module, the causal agent maintains a dictionary instance where the keys are unique names and the values are causal graphs. To verify the causal ability of the causal agent, we established a benchmark consisting of four levels of causal problems: variable level, edge level, causal graph level, and causal effect level. We generated a test dataset of 1.3K using ChatGPT-3.5 for these four levels of issues and tested the causal agent on the datasets. Our methodology demonstrates remarkable efficacy on the four-level causal problems, with accuracy rates all above 80%. For further insights and implementation details, our code is accessible via the GitHub repository https://github.com/Kairong-Han/Causal_Agent.

Recent progress in the reasoning capabilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has empowered them to address more complex tasks such as scientific analysis and mathematical reasoning. Despite their promise, MLLMs' reasoning abilities across different scenarios in real life remain largely unexplored and lack standardized benchmarks for evaluation. To address this gap, we introduce MMR-Life, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate the diverse multimodal multi-image reasoning capabilities of MLLMs across real-life scenarios. MMR-Life consists of 2,646 multiple-choice questions based on 19,108 images primarily sourced from real-world contexts, comprehensively covering seven reasoning types: abductive, analogical, causal, deductive, inductive, spatial, and temporal. Unlike existing reasoning benchmarks, MMR-Life does not rely on domain-specific expertise but instead requires models to integrate information across multiple images and apply diverse reasoning abilities. The evaluation of 37 advanced models highlights the substantial challenge posed by MMR-Life. Even top models like GPT-5 achieve only 58% accuracy and display considerable variance in performance across reasoning types. Moreover, we analyze the reasoning paradigms of existing MLLMs, exploring how factors such as thinking length, reasoning method, and reasoning type affect their performance. In summary, MMR-Life establishes a comprehensive foundation for evaluating, analyzing, and improving the next generation of multimodal reasoning systems.

This paper introduces UnSeenTimeQA, a novel time-sensitive question-answering (TSQA) benchmark that diverges from traditional TSQA benchmarks by avoiding factual and web-searchable queries. We present a series of time-sensitive event scenarios decoupled from real-world factual information. It requires large language models (LLMs) to engage in genuine temporal reasoning, disassociating from the knowledge acquired during the pre-training phase. Our evaluation of six open-source LLMs (ranging from 2B to 70B in size) and three closed-source LLMs reveal that the questions from the UnSeenTimeQA present substantial challenges. This indicates the models' difficulties in handling complex temporal reasoning scenarios. Additionally, we present several analyses shedding light on the models' performance in answering time-sensitive questions.

Understanding time series data is crucial for multiple real-world applications. While large language models (LLMs) show promise in time series tasks, current approaches often rely on numerical data alone, overlooking the multimodal nature of time-dependent information, such as textual descriptions, visual data, and audio signals. Moreover, these methods underutilize LLMs' reasoning capabilities, limiting the analysis to surface-level interpretations instead of deeper temporal and multimodal reasoning. In this position paper, we argue that multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) can enable more powerful and flexible reasoning for time series analysis, enhancing decision-making and real-world applications. We call on researchers and practitioners to leverage this potential by developing strategies that prioritize trust, interpretability, and robust reasoning in MLLMs. Lastly, we highlight key research directions, including novel reasoning paradigms, architectural innovations, and domain-specific applications, to advance time series reasoning with MLLMs.

Evaluating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines requires corpora where ground truth is knowable, temporally structured, and cross-artifact properties that real-world datasets rarely provide cleanly. Existing resources such as the Enron corpus carry legal ambiguity, demographic skew, and no structured ground truth. Purely LLM-generated synthetic data solves the legal problem but introduces a subtler one: the generating model cannot be prevented from hallucinating facts that contradict themselves across documents.We present OrgForge, an open-source multi-agent simulation framework that enforces a strict physics-cognition boundary: a deterministic Python engine maintains a SimEvent ground truth bus; large language models generate only surface prose, constrained by validated proposals. An actor-local clock enforces causal timestamp correctness across all artifact types, eliminating the class of timeline inconsistencies that arise when timestamps are sampled independently per document. We formalize three graph-dynamic subsystems stress propagation via betweenness centrality, temporal edge-weight decay, and Dijkstra escalation routing that govern organizational behavior independently of any LLM. Running a configurable N-day simulation, OrgForge produces interleaved Slack threads, JIRA tickets, Confluence pages, Git pull requests, and emails, all traceable to a shared, immutable event log. We additionally describe a causal chain tracking subsystem that accumulates cross-artifact evidence graphs per incident, a hybrid reciprocal-rank-fusion recurrence detector for identifying repeated failure classes, and an inbound/outbound email engine that routes vendor alerts, customer complaints, and HR correspondence through gated causal chains with probabilistic drop simulation. OrgForge is available under the MIT license.

While large language models (LLMs) show great potential in temporal reasoning, most existing work focuses heavily on enhancing performance, often neglecting the explainable reasoning processes underlying the results. To address this gap, we introduce a comprehensive benchmark covering a wide range of temporal granularities, designed to systematically evaluate LLMs' capabilities in explainable temporal reasoning. Furthermore, our findings reveal that LLMs struggle to deliver convincing explanations when relying solely on textual information. To address challenge, we propose GETER, a novel structure-aware generative framework that integrates Graph structures with text for Explainable TEmporal Reasoning. Specifically, we first leverage temporal knowledge graphs to develop a temporal encoder that captures structural information for the query. Subsequently, we introduce a structure-text prefix adapter to map graph structure features into the text embedding space. Finally, LLMs generate explanation text by seamlessly integrating the soft graph token with instruction-tuning prompt tokens. Experimental results indicate that GETER achieves state-of-the-art performance while also demonstrating its effectiveness as well as strong generalization capabilities. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/carryTatum/GETER.

We introduce ReXTime, a benchmark designed to rigorously test AI models' ability to perform temporal reasoning within video events. Specifically, ReXTime focuses on reasoning across time, i.e. human-like understanding when the question and its corresponding answer occur in different video segments. This form of reasoning, requiring advanced understanding of cause-and-effect relationships across video segments, poses significant challenges to even the frontier multimodal large language models. To facilitate this evaluation, we develop an automated pipeline for generating temporal reasoning question-answer pairs, significantly reducing the need for labor-intensive manual annotations. Our benchmark includes 921 carefully vetted validation samples and 2,143 test samples, each manually curated for accuracy and relevance. Evaluation results show that while frontier large language models outperform academic models, they still lag behind human performance by a significant 14.3% accuracy gap. Additionally, our pipeline creates a training dataset of 9,695 machine generated samples without manual effort, which empirical studies suggest can enhance the across-time reasoning via fine-tuning.

Next-token prediction serves as the foundational learning task enabling reasoning in LLMs. But what should the learning task be when aiming to equip MLLMs with temporal reasoning capabilities over video inputs? Existing tasks such as video question answering often rely on annotations from humans or much stronger MLLMs, while video captioning tends to entangle temporal reasoning with spatial information. To address this gap, we propose next-event prediction (NEP), a learning task that harnesses future video segments as a rich, self-supervised signal to foster temporal reasoning. We segment each video into past and future frames: the MLLM takes the past frames as input and predicts a summary of events derived from the future frames, thereby encouraging the model to reason temporally in order to complete the task. To support this task, we curate V1-33K, a dataset comprising 33,000 automatically extracted video segments spanning diverse real-world scenarios. We further explore a range of video instruction-tuning strategies to study their effects on temporal reasoning. To evaluate progress, we introduce FutureBench to assess coherence in predicting unseen future events. Experiments validate that NEP offers a scalable and effective training paradigm for fostering temporal reasoning in MLLMs.

Entities and events are crucial to natural language reasoning and common in procedural texts. Existing work has focused either exclusively on entity state tracking (e.g., whether a pan is hot) or on event reasoning (e.g., whether one would burn themselves by touching the pan), while these two tasks are often causally related. We propose CREPE, the first benchmark on causal reasoning of event plausibility and entity states. We show that most language models, including GPT-3, perform close to chance at .35 F1, lagging far behind human at .87 F1. We boost model performance to .59 F1 by creatively representing events as programming languages while prompting language models pretrained on code. By injecting the causal relations between entities and events as intermediate reasoning steps in our representation, we further boost the performance to .67 F1. Our findings indicate not only the challenge that CREPE brings for language models, but also the efficacy of code-like prompting combined with chain-of-thought prompting for multihop event reasoning.

Fine-grained spatio-temporal understanding is essential for video reasoning and embodied AI. Yet, while Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) master static semantics, their grasp of temporal dynamics remains brittle. We present TimeBlind, a diagnostic benchmark for compositional spatio-temporal understanding. Inspired by cognitive science, TimeBlind categorizes fine-grained temporal understanding into three levels: recognizing atomic events, characterizing event properties, and reasoning about event interdependencies. Unlike benchmarks that conflate recognition with temporal reasoning, TimeBlind leverages a minimal-pairs paradigm: video pairs share identical static visual content but differ solely in temporal structure, utilizing complementary questions to neutralize language priors. Evaluating over 20 state-of-the-art MLLMs (e.g., GPT-5, Gemini 3 Pro) on 600 curated instances (2400 video-question pairs), reveals that the Instance Accuracy (correctly distinguishing both videos in a pair) of the best performing MLLM is only 48.2%, far below the human performance (98.2%). These results demonstrate that even frontier models rely heavily on static visual shortcuts rather than genuine temporal logic, positioning TimeBlind as a vital diagnostic tool for next-generation video understanding. Dataset and code are available at https://baiqi-li.github.io/timeblind_project/ .

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has significantly enhanced large language models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks by incorporating external knowledge retrieval. However, existing RAG frameworks primarily rely on semantic similarity and correlation-driven retrieval, limiting their ability to distinguish true causal relationships from spurious associations. This results in responses that may be factually grounded but fail to establish cause-and-effect mechanisms, leading to incomplete or misleading insights. To address this issue, we introduce Causal Dynamic Feedback for Adaptive Retrieval-Augmented Generation (CDF-RAG), a framework designed to improve causal consistency, factual accuracy, and explainability in generative reasoning. CDF-RAG iteratively refines queries, retrieves structured causal graphs, and enables multi-hop causal reasoning across interconnected knowledge sources. Additionally, it validates responses against causal pathways, ensuring logically coherent and factually grounded outputs. We evaluate CDF-RAG on four diverse datasets, demonstrating its ability to improve response accuracy and causal correctness over existing RAG-based methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ elakhatibi/CDF-RAG.