Daily Papers

Event sequences, characterized by irregular sampling intervals and a mix of categorical and numerical features, are common data structures in various real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, and user interaction logs. Despite advances in temporal data modeling techniques, there is no standardized benchmarks for evaluating their performance on event sequences. This complicates result comparison across different papers due to varying evaluation protocols, potentially misleading progress in this field. We introduce EBES, a comprehensive benchmarking tool with standardized evaluation scenarios and protocols, focusing on regression and classification problems with sequence-level targets. Our library simplifies benchmarking, dataset addition, and method integration through a unified interface. It includes a novel synthetic dataset and provides preprocessed real-world datasets, including the largest publicly available banking dataset. Our results provide an in-depth analysis of datasets, identifying some as unsuitable for model comparison. We investigate the importance of modeling temporal and sequential components, as well as the robustness and scaling properties of the models. These findings highlight potential directions for future research. Our benchmark aim is to facilitate reproducible research, expediting progress and increasing real-world impacts.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful new family of deep generative models with record-breaking performance in many applications, including image synthesis, video generation, and molecule design. In this survey, we provide an overview of the rapidly expanding body of work on diffusion models, categorizing the research into three key areas: efficient sampling, improved likelihood estimation, and handling data with special structures. We also discuss the potential for combining diffusion models with other generative models for enhanced results. We further review the wide-ranging applications of diffusion models in fields spanning from computer vision, natural language generation, temporal data modeling, to interdisciplinary applications in other scientific disciplines. This survey aims to provide a contextualized, in-depth look at the state of diffusion models, identifying the key areas of focus and pointing to potential areas for further exploration. Github: https://github.com/YangLing0818/Diffusion-Models-Papers-Survey-Taxonomy.

Long short-term memory (LSTM) is a kind of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for sequence and temporal dependency data modeling and its effectiveness has been extensively established. In this work, we propose a hybrid quantum-classical model of LSTM, which we dub QLSTM. We demonstrate that the proposed model successfully learns several kinds of temporal data. In particular, we show that for certain testing cases, this quantum version of LSTM converges faster, or equivalently, reaches a better accuracy, than its classical counterpart. Due to the variational nature of our approach, the requirements on qubit counts and circuit depth are eased, and our work thus paves the way toward implementing machine learning algorithms for sequence modeling on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation are important for real-world intelligent systems. Most existing methods are tailored for individual forecasting or imputation tasks but are not designed for both. Additionally, they are less effective for zero-shot and few-shot learning. While pre-trained language model (PLM) have exhibited strong pattern recognition and reasoning abilities across various tasks, including few-shot and zero-shot learning, their applications in spatial-temporal data understanding has been constrained by insufficient modeling of complex correlations such as the temporal correlations, spatial connectivity, non-pairwise and high-order spatial-temporal correlations within data. In this paper, we propose STD-PLM for understanding both spatial and temporal properties of Spatial-Temporal Data with PLM, which is capable of implementing both spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation tasks. STD-PLM understands spatial-temporal correlations via explicitly designed spatial and temporal tokenizers. Topology-aware node embeddings are designed for PLM to comprehend and exploit the topology structure of data in inductive manner. Furthermore, to mitigate the efficiency issues introduced by the PLM, we design a sandglass attention module (SGA) combined with a specific constrained loss function, which significantly improves the model's efficiency while ensuring performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STD-PLM exhibits competitive performance and generalization capabilities across the forecasting and imputation tasks on various datasets. Moreover, STD-PLM achieves promising results on both few-shot and zero-shot tasks.The code is made available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STD-PLM-F3BA{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STD-PLM-F3BA}

Graphs have often been used to answer questions about the interaction between real-world entities by taking advantage of their capacity to represent complex topologies. Complex networks are known to be graphs that capture such non-trivial topologies; they are able to represent human phenomena such as epidemic processes, the dynamics of populations, and the urbanization of cities. The investigation of complex networks has been extrapolated to many fields of science, with particular emphasis on computing techniques, including artificial intelligence. In such a case, the analysis of the interaction between entities of interest is transposed to the internal learning of algorithms, a paradigm whose investigation is able to expand the state of the art in Computer Science. By exploring this paradigm, this thesis puts together complex networks and machine learning techniques to improve the understanding of the human phenomena observed in pandemics, pendular migration, and street networks. Accordingly, we contribute with: (i) a new neural network architecture capable of modeling dynamic processes observed in spatial and temporal data with applications in epidemics propagation, weather forecasting, and patient monitoring in intensive care units; (ii) a machine-learning methodology for analyzing and predicting links in the scope of human mobility between all the cities of Brazil; and, (iii) techniques for identifying inconsistencies in the urban planning of cities while tracking the most influential vertices, with applications over Brazilian and worldwide cities. We obtained results sustained by sound evidence of advances to the state of the art in artificial intelligence, rigorous formalisms, and ample experimentation. Our findings rely upon real-world applications in a range of domains, demonstrating the applicability of our methodologies.

Time-series data are critical in diverse applications, such as industrial monitoring, medical diagnostics, and climate research. However, effectively integrating these high-dimensional temporal signals with natural language for dynamic, interactive tasks remains a significant challenge. To address this, we introduce the Time-Series Question Answering (Time-Series QA) task and release EngineMT-QA, the first large-scale, multi-task, temporal-textual QA dataset designed to capture complex interactions between time-series signals and natural language. Building on this resource, we propose the Instruct Time Transformer (ITFormer), a novel framework that bridges time-series encoders with frozen large language models (LLMs). ITFormer effectively extracts, aligns, and fuses temporal and textual features, achieving a strong improvement in QA accuracy over strong baselines with fewer than 1\% additional trainable parameters. By combining computational efficiency with robust cross-modal modeling, our work establishes a adaptable paradigm for integrating temporal data with natural language, paving the way for new research and applications in multi-modal AI. More details about the project, including datasets and code, are available at: https://pandalin98.github.io/itformer_site/

Large-scale image-language pretrained models, e.g., CLIP, have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in acquiring general multi-modal knowledge through web-scale image-text data. Despite the impressive performance of image-language models on various image tasks, how to effectively expand them on general video understanding remains an area of ongoing exploration. In this paper, we investigate the image-to-video transferring from the perspective of the model and the data, unveiling two key obstacles impeding the adaptation of image-language models: non-generalizable temporal modeling and partially misaligned video-text data. To address these challenges, we propose Spatial-Temporal Auxiliary Network with Mutual-guided alignment module (Mug-STAN), a simple yet effective framework extending image-text model to diverse video tasks and video-text data.Specifically, STAN adopts a branch structure with decomposed spatial-temporal modules to enable generalizable temporal modeling, while Mug suppresses misalignment by introducing token-wise feature aggregation of either modality from the other. Extensive experimental results verify Mug-STAN significantly improves adaptation of language-image pretrained models such as CLIP and CoCa at both video-text post-pretraining and finetuning stages. With our solution, state-of-the-art zero-shot and finetuning results on various downstream datasets, including MSR-VTT, DiDeMo, LSMDC, Kinetics-400, Something-Something-2, HMDB-51, UCF- 101, and AVA, are achieved. Moreover, by integrating pretrained Mug-STAN with the emerging multimodal dialogue model, we can realize zero-shot video chatting. Codes are available at https://github.com/farewellthree/STAN

Precise Event Spotting (PES) aims to identify events and their class from long, untrimmed videos, particularly in sports. The main objective of PES is to detect the event at the exact moment it occurs. Existing methods mainly rely on features from a large pre-trained network, which may not be ideal for the task. Furthermore, these methods overlook the issue of imbalanced event class distribution present in the data, negatively impacting performance in challenging scenarios. This paper demonstrates that an appropriately designed network, trained end-to-end, can outperform state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. Particularly, we propose a network with a convolutional spatial-temporal feature extractor enhanced with our proposed Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Refinement Module (ASTRM) and a long-range temporal module. The ASTRM enhances the features with spatio-temporal information. Meanwhile, the long-range temporal module helps extract global context from the data by modeling long-range dependencies. To address the class imbalance issue, we introduce the Soft Instance Contrastive (SoftIC) loss that promotes feature compactness and class separation. Extensive experiments show that the proposed method is efficient and outperforms the SOTA methods, specifically in more challenging settings.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

Training state-of-the-art models for human pose estimation in videos requires datasets with annotations that are really hard and expensive to obtain. Although transformers have been recently utilized for body pose sequence modeling, related methods rely on pseudo-ground truth to augment the currently limited training data available for learning such models. In this paper, we introduce PoseBERT, a transformer module that is fully trained on 3D Motion Capture (MoCap) data via masked modeling. It is simple, generic and versatile, as it can be plugged on top of any image-based model to transform it in a video-based model leveraging temporal information. We showcase variants of PoseBERT with different inputs varying from 3D skeleton keypoints to rotations of a 3D parametric model for either the full body (SMPL) or just the hands (MANO). Since PoseBERT training is task agnostic, the model can be applied to several tasks such as pose refinement, future pose prediction or motion completion without finetuning. Our experimental results validate that adding PoseBERT on top of various state-of-the-art pose estimation methods consistently improves their performances, while its low computational cost allows us to use it in a real-time demo for smoothly animating a robotic hand via a webcam. Test code and models are available at https://github.com/naver/posebert.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the selection-based prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in non-stationary time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in standard supervised learning settings but also in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets as well as in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Human action recognition (HAR) plays a key role in various applications such as video analysis, surveillance, autonomous driving, robotics, and healthcare. Most HAR algorithms are developed from RGB images, which capture detailed visual information. However, these algorithms raise concerns in privacy-sensitive environments due to the recording of identifiable features. Event cameras offer a promising solution by capturing scene brightness changes sparsely at the pixel level, without capturing full images. Moreover, event cameras have high dynamic ranges that can effectively handle scenarios with complex lighting conditions, such as low light or high contrast environments. However, using event cameras introduces challenges in modeling the spatially sparse and high temporal resolution event data for HAR. To address these issues, we propose the SpikMamba framework, which combines the energy efficiency of spiking neural networks and the long sequence modeling capability of Mamba to efficiently capture global features from spatially sparse and high a temporal resolution event data. Additionally, to improve the locality of modeling, a spiking window-based linear attention mechanism is used. Extensive experiments show that SpikMamba achieves remarkable recognition performance, surpassing the previous state-of-the-art by 1.45%, 7.22%, 0.15%, and 3.92% on the PAF, HARDVS, DVS128, and E-FAction datasets, respectively. The code is available at https://github.com/Typistchen/SpikMamba.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

When sound waves hit an object, they induce vibrations that produce high-frequency and subtle visual changes, which can be used for recovering the sound. Early studies always encounter trade-offs related to sampling rate, bandwidth, field of view, and the simplicity of the optical path. Recent advances in event camera hardware show good potential for its application in visual sound recovery, because of its superior ability in capturing high-frequency signals. However, existing event-based vibration recovery methods are still sub-optimal for sound recovery. In this work, we propose a novel pipeline for non-contact sound recovery, fully utilizing spatial-temporal information from the event stream. We first generate a large training set using a novel simulation pipeline. Then we designed a network that leverages the sparsity of events to capture spatial information and uses Mamba to model long-term temporal information. Lastly, we train a spatial aggregation block to aggregate information from different locations to further improve signal quality. To capture event signals caused by sound waves, we also designed an imaging system using a laser matrix to enhance the gradient and collected multiple data sequences for testing. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Understanding the temporal dynamics of Earth's surface is a mission of multi-temporal remote sensing image analysis, significantly promoted by deep vision models with its fuel -- labeled multi-temporal images. However, collecting, preprocessing, and annotating multi-temporal remote sensing images at scale is non-trivial since it is expensive and knowledge-intensive. In this paper, we present a scalable multi-temporal remote sensing change data generator via generative modeling, which is cheap and automatic, alleviating these problems. Our main idea is to simulate a stochastic change process over time. We consider the stochastic change process as a probabilistic semantic state transition, namely generative probabilistic change model (GPCM), which decouples the complex simulation problem into two more trackable sub-problems, \ie, change event simulation and semantic change synthesis. To solve these two problems, we present the change generator (Changen), a GAN-based GPCM, enabling controllable object change data generation, including customizable object property, and change event. The extensive experiments suggest that our Changen has superior generation capability, and the change detectors with Changen pre-training exhibit excellent transferability to real-world change datasets.

Generative modeling of time series is a central challenge in time series analysis, particularly under data-scarce conditions. Despite recent advances in generative modeling, a comprehensive understanding of how state-of-the-art generative models perform under limited supervision remains lacking. In this work, we conduct the first large-scale study evaluating leading generative models in data-scarce settings, revealing a substantial performance gap between full-data and data-scarce regimes. To close this gap, we propose a unified diffusion-based generative framework that can synthesize high-fidelity time series across diverse domains using just a few examples. Our model is pre-trained on a large, heterogeneous collection of time series datasets, enabling it to learn generalizable temporal representations. It further incorporates architectural innovations such as dynamic convolutional layers for flexible channel adaptation and dataset token conditioning for domain-aware generation. Without requiring abundant supervision, our unified model achieves state-of-the-art performance in few-shot settings-outperforming domain-specific baselines across a wide range of subset sizes. Remarkably, it also surpasses all baselines even when tested on full datasets benchmarks, highlighting the strength of pre-training and cross-domain generalization. We hope this work encourages the community to revisit few-shot generative modeling as a key problem in time series research and pursue unified solutions that scale efficiently across domains. Code is available at https://github.com/azencot-group/ImagenFew.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

Forecasting sea surface currents is essential for applications such as maritime navigation, environmental monitoring, and climate analysis, particularly in regions like the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. This paper introduces SEA-ViT, an advanced deep learning model that integrates Vision Transformer (ViT) with bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) to capture spatio-temporal covariance for predicting sea surface currents (U, V) using high-frequency radar (HF) data. The name SEA-ViT is derived from ``Sea Surface Currents Forecasting using Vision Transformer,'' highlighting the model's emphasis on ocean dynamics and its use of the ViT architecture to enhance forecasting capabilities. SEA-ViT is designed to unravel complex dependencies by leveraging a rich dataset spanning over 30 years and incorporating ENSO indices (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases) to address the intricate relationship between geographic coordinates and climatic variations. This development enhances the predictive capabilities for sea surface currents, supporting the efforts of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) in Thailand's maritime regions. The code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/kaopanboonyuen/gistda-ai-sea-surface-currents.

Spatio-temporal modeling is foundational for smart city applications, yet it is often hindered by data scarcity in many cities and regions. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel generative pre-training framework, GPD, for spatio-temporal few-shot learning with urban knowledge transfer. Unlike conventional approaches that heavily rely on common feature extraction or intricate few-shot learning designs, our solution takes a novel approach by performing generative pre-training on a collection of neural network parameters optimized with data from source cities. We recast spatio-temporal few-shot learning as pre-training a generative diffusion model, which generates tailored neural networks guided by prompts, allowing for adaptability to diverse data distributions and city-specific characteristics. GPD employs a Transformer-based denoising diffusion model, which is model-agnostic to integrate with powerful spatio-temporal neural networks. By addressing challenges arising from data gaps and the complexity of generalizing knowledge across cities, our framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on multiple real-world datasets for tasks such as traffic speed prediction and crowd flow prediction. The implementation of our approach is available: https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/GPD.

With the increasing demands for safety, efficiency, and sustainability in global shipping, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays an increasingly important role in maritime monitoring. AIS data contains spatial-temporal variation patterns of vessels that hold significant research value in the marine domain. However, due to its massive scale, the full potential of AIS data has long remained untapped. With its powerful sequence modeling capabilities, particularly its ability to capture long-range dependencies and complex temporal dynamics, the Transformer model has emerged as an effective tool for processing AIS data. Therefore, this paper reviews the research on Transformer-based AIS data-driven maritime monitoring, providing a comprehensive overview of the current applications of Transformer models in the marine field. The focus is on Transformer-based trajectory prediction methods, behavior detection, and prediction techniques. Additionally, this paper collects and organizes publicly available AIS datasets from the reviewed papers, performing data filtering, cleaning, and statistical analysis. The statistical results reveal the operational characteristics of different vessel types, providing data support for further research on maritime monitoring tasks. Finally, we offer valuable suggestions for future research, identifying two promising research directions. Datasets are available at https://github.com/eyesofworld/Maritime-Monitoring.

Multimodal foundation models (MFMs) have demonstrated significant success in tasks such as visual captioning, question answering, and image-text retrieval. However, these models face inherent limitations due to their finite internal capacity, which restricts their ability to process extended temporal sequences, a crucial requirement for comprehensive video and audio analysis. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a specialized cognitive module, temporal working memory (TWM), which aims to enhance the temporal modeling capabilities of MFMs. It selectively retains task-relevant information across temporal dimensions, ensuring that critical details are preserved throughout the processing of video and audio content. The TWM uses a query-guided attention approach to focus on the most informative multimodal segments within temporal sequences. By retaining only the most relevant content, TWM optimizes the use of the model's limited capacity, enhancing its temporal modeling ability. This plug-and-play module can be easily integrated into existing MFMs. With our TWM, nine state-of-the-art models exhibit significant performance improvements across tasks such as video captioning, question answering, and video-text retrieval. By enhancing temporal modeling, TWM extends the capability of MFMs to handle complex, time-sensitive data effectively. Our code is available at https://github.com/xid32/NAACL_2025_TWM.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Data replay is a successful incremental learning technique for images. It prevents catastrophic forgetting by keeping a reservoir of previous data, original or synthesized, to ensure the model retains past knowledge while adapting to novel concepts. However, its application in the video domain is rudimentary, as it simply stores frame exemplars for action recognition. This paper presents the first exploration of video data replay techniques for incremental action segmentation, focusing on action temporal modeling. We propose a Temporally Coherent Action (TCA) model, which represents actions using a generative model instead of storing individual frames. The integration of a conditioning variable that captures temporal coherence allows our model to understand the evolution of action features over time. Therefore, action segments generated by TCA for replay are diverse and temporally coherent. In a 10-task incremental setup on the Breakfast dataset, our approach achieves significant increases in accuracy for up to 22% compared to the baselines.

The appearance of a human in clothing is driven not only by the pose but also by its temporal context, i.e., motion. However, such context has been largely neglected by existing monocular human modeling methods whose neural networks often struggle to learn a video of a person with large dynamics due to the motion ambiguity, i.e., there exist numerous geometric configurations of clothes that are dependent on the context of motion even for the same pose. In this paper, we introduce a method for high-quality modeling of clothed 3D human avatars using a video of a person with dynamic movements. The main challenge comes from the lack of 3D ground truth data of geometry and its temporal correspondences. We address this challenge by introducing a novel compositional human modeling framework that takes advantage of both explicit and implicit human modeling. For explicit modeling, a neural network learns to generate point-wise shape residuals and appearance features of a 3D body model by comparing its 2D rendering results and the original images. This explicit model allows for the reconstruction of discriminative 3D motion features from UV space by encoding their temporal correspondences. For implicit modeling, an implicit network combines the appearance and 3D motion features to decode high-fidelity clothed 3D human avatars with motion-dependent geometry and texture. The experiments show that our method can generate a large variation of secondary motion in a physically plausible way.

Longitudinal multimodal data, including electronic health records (EHR) and sequential chest X-rays (CXRs), is critical for modeling disease progression, yet remains underutilized due to two key challenges: (1) redundancy in consecutive CXR sequences, where static anatomical regions dominate over clinically-meaningful dynamics, and (2) temporal misalignment between sparse, irregular imaging and continuous EHR data. We introduce DiPro, a novel framework that addresses these challenges through region-aware disentanglement and multi-timescale alignment. First, we disentangle static (anatomy) and dynamic (pathology progression) features in sequential CXRs, prioritizing disease-relevant changes. Second, we hierarchically align these static and dynamic CXR features with asynchronous EHR data via local (pairwise interval-level) and global (full-sequence) synchronization to model coherent progression pathways. Extensive experiments on the MIMIC dataset demonstrate that DiPro could effectively extract temporal clinical dynamics and achieve state-of-the-art performance on both disease progression identification and general ICU prediction tasks.

Conceptual models such as Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) have driven substantial progress in improving interpretability for image classification by leveraging human-interpretable concepts. However, extending these models from static images to sequences of images, such as video data, introduces a significant challenge due to the temporal dependencies inherent in videos, which are essential for capturing actions and events. In this work, we introduce MoTIF (Moving Temporal Interpretable Framework), an architectural design inspired by a transformer that adapts the concept bottleneck framework for video classification and handles sequences of arbitrary length. Within the video domain, concepts refer to semantic entities such as objects, attributes, or higher-level components (e.g., 'bow', 'mount', 'shoot') that reoccur across time - forming motifs collectively describing and explaining actions. Our design explicitly enables three complementary perspectives: global concept importance across the entire video, local concept relevance within specific windows, and temporal dependencies of a concept over time. Our results demonstrate that the concept-based modeling paradigm can be effectively transferred to video data, enabling a better understanding of concept contributions in temporal contexts while maintaining competitive performance. Code available at github.com/patrick-knab/MoTIF.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) pretrained on data from multiple domains have shown strong performance on diverse modeling tasks. Various efforts have been made to develop foundation models specific to electroencephalography (EEG) data, which records brain electrical activity as time series. However, no comparative analysis of EEG-specific foundation models (EEGFMs) versus general TSFMs has been performed on EEG-specific tasks. We introduce a novel Spatial-Temporal Adapter with Multi-Head Pooling (STAMP), which leverages univariate embeddings produced by a general TSFM, implicitly models spatial-temporal characteristics of EEG data, and achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art EEGFMs. A comprehensive analysis is performed on 8 benchmark datasets of clinical tasks using EEG for classification, along with ablation studies. Our proposed adapter is lightweight in trainable parameters and flexible in the inputs it can accommodate, supporting easy modeling of EEG data using TSFMs.

Despite progress in video-language modeling, the computational challenge of interpreting long-form videos in response to task-specific linguistic queries persists, largely due to the complexity of high-dimensional video data and the misalignment between language and visual cues over space and time. To tackle this issue, we introduce a novel approach called Language-guided Spatial-Temporal Prompt Learning (LSTP). This approach features two key components: a Temporal Prompt Sampler (TPS) with optical flow prior that leverages temporal information to efficiently extract relevant video content, and a Spatial Prompt Solver (SPS) that adeptly captures the intricate spatial relationships between visual and textual elements. By harmonizing TPS and SPS with a cohesive training strategy, our framework significantly enhances computational efficiency, temporal understanding, and spatial-temporal alignment. Empirical evaluations across two challenging tasks--video question answering and temporal question grounding in videos--using a variety of video-language pretrainings (VLPs) and large language models (LLMs) demonstrate the superior performance, speed, and versatility of our proposed LSTP paradigm.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.

Passive observational data, such as human videos, is abundant and rich in information, yet remains largely untapped by current RL methods. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that passive data, despite not having reward or action labels, can still be used to learn features that accelerate downstream RL. Our approach learns from passive data by modeling intentions: measuring how the likelihood of future outcomes change when the agent acts to achieve a particular task. We propose a temporal difference learning objective to learn about intentions, resulting in an algorithm similar to conventional RL, but which learns entirely from passive data. When optimizing this objective, our agent simultaneously learns representations of states, of policies, and of possible outcomes in an environment, all from raw observational data. Both theoretically and empirically, this scheme learns features amenable for value prediction for downstream tasks, and our experiments demonstrate the ability to learn from many forms of passive data, including cross-embodiment video data and YouTube videos.

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

The estimation of optical flow and 6-DoF ego-motion, two fundamental tasks in 3D vision, has typically been addressed independently. For neuromorphic vision (e.g., event cameras), however, the lack of robust data association makes solving the two problems separately an ill-posed challenge, especially in the absence of supervision via ground truth. Existing works mitigate this ill-posedness by either enforcing the smoothness of the flow field via an explicit variational regularizer or leveraging explicit structure-and-motion priors in the parametrization to improve event alignment. The former notably introduces bias in results and computational overhead, while the latter, which parametrizes the optical flow in terms of the scene depth and the camera motion, often converges to suboptimal local minima. To address these issues, we propose an unsupervised framework that jointly optimizes egomotion and optical flow via implicit spatial-temporal and geometric regularization. First, by modeling camera's egomotion as a continuous spline and optical flow as an implicit neural representation, our method inherently embeds spatial-temporal coherence through inductive biases. Second, we incorporate structure-and-motion priors through differential geometric constraints, bypassing explicit depth estimation while maintaining rigorous geometric consistency. As a result, our framework (called E-MoFlow) unifies egomotion and optical flow estimation via implicit regularization under a fully unsupervised paradigm. Experiments demonstrate its versatility to general 6-DoF motion scenarios, achieving state-of-the-art performance among unsupervised methods and competitive even with supervised approaches.

In the shipping industry, fuel consumption and emissions are critical factors due to their significant impact on economic efficiency and environmental sustainability. Accurate prediction of ship fuel consumption is essential for further optimization of maritime operations. However, heterogeneous methodologies and limited high-quality datasets hinder direct comparison of modeling approaches. This paper makes three key contributions: (1) we introduce and release a new dataset (https://huggingface.co/datasets/krohnedigital/FuelCast) comprising operational and environmental data from three ships; (2) we define a standardized benchmark covering tabular regression and time-series regression (3) we investigate the application of in-context learning for ship consumption modeling using the TabPFN foundation model - a first in this domain to our knowledge. Our results demonstrate strong performance across all evaluated models, supporting the feasibility of onboard, data-driven fuel prediction. Models incorporating environmental conditions consistently outperform simple polynomial baselines relying solely on vessel speed. TabPFN slightly outperforms other techniques, highlighting the potential of foundation models with in-context learning capabilities for tabular prediction. Furthermore, including temporal context improves accuracy.

A unified foundation model for medical time series -- pretrained on open access and ethics board-approved medical corpora -- offers the potential to reduce annotation burdens, minimize model customization, and enable robust transfer across clinical institutions, modalities, and tasks, particularly in data-scarce or privacy-constrained environments. However, existing generalist time series foundation models struggle to handle medical time series data due to their inherent challenges, including irregular intervals, heterogeneous sampling rates, and frequent missing values. To address these challenges, we introduce MIRA, a unified foundation model specifically designed for medical time series forecasting. MIRA incorporates a Continuous-Time Rotary Positional Encoding that enables fine-grained modeling of variable time intervals, a frequency-specific mixture-of-experts layer that routes computation across latent frequency regimes to further promote temporal specialization, and a Continuous Dynamics Extrapolation Block based on Neural ODE that models the continuous trajectory of latent states, enabling accurate forecasting at arbitrary target timestamps. Pretrained on a large-scale and diverse medical corpus comprising over 454 billion time points collect from publicly available datasets, MIRA achieves reductions in forecasting errors by an average of 10% and 7% in out-of-distribution and in-distribution scenarios, respectively, when compared to other zero-shot and fine-tuned baselines. We also introduce a comprehensive benchmark spanning multiple downstream clinical tasks, establishing a foundation for future research in medical time series modeling.

Accurate modeling of eye gaze dynamics is essential for advancement in human-computer interaction, neurological diagnostics, and cognitive research. Traditional generative models like Markov models often fail to capture the complex temporal dependencies and distributional nuance inherent in eye gaze trajectories data. This study introduces a GAN framework employing LSTM and CNN generators and discriminators to generate high-fidelity synthetic eye gaze velocity trajectories. We conducted a comprehensive evaluation of four GAN architectures: CNN-CNN, LSTM-CNN, CNN-LSTM, and LSTM-LSTM trained under two conditions: using only adversarial loss and using a weighted combination of adversarial and spectral losses. Our findings reveal that the LSTM-CNN architecture trained with this new loss function exhibits the closest alignment to the real data distribution, effectively capturing both the distribution tails and the intricate temporal dependencies. The inclusion of spectral regularization significantly enhances the GANs ability to replicate the spectral characteristics of eye gaze movements, leading to a more stable learning process and improved data fidelity. Comparative analysis with an HMM optimized to four hidden states further highlights the advantages of the LSTM-CNN GAN. Statistical metrics show that the HMM-generated data significantly diverges from the real data in terms of mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. In contrast, the LSTM-CNN model closely matches the real data across these statistics, affirming its capacity to model the complexity of eye gaze dynamics effectively. These results position the spectrally regularized LSTM-CNN GAN as a robust tool for generating synthetic eye gaze velocity data with high fidelity.

The scarcity of annotated data in LiDAR point cloud understanding hinders effective representation learning. Consequently, scholars have been actively investigating efficacious self-supervised pre-training paradigms. Nevertheless, temporal information, which is inherent in the LiDAR point cloud sequence, is consistently disregarded. To better utilize this property, we propose an effective pre-training strategy, namely Temporal Masked Auto-Encoders (T-MAE), which takes as input temporally adjacent frames and learns temporal dependency. A SiamWCA backbone, containing a Siamese encoder and a windowed cross-attention (WCA) module, is established for the two-frame input. Considering that the movement of an ego-vehicle alters the view of the same instance, temporal modeling also serves as a robust and natural data augmentation, enhancing the comprehension of target objects. SiamWCA is a powerful architecture but heavily relies on annotated data. Our T-MAE pre-training strategy alleviates its demand for annotated data. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that T-MAE achieves the best performance on both Waymo and ONCE datasets among competitive self-supervised approaches. Codes will be released at https://github.com/codename1995/T-MAE

Traffic forecasting represents a crucial problem within intelligent transportation systems. In recent research, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising method, but their intrinsic design, tailored primarily for sequential token processing, introduces notable challenges in effectively capturing spatial dependencies. Specifically, the inherent limitations of LLMs in modeling spatial relationships and their architectural incompatibility with graph-structured spatial data remain largely unaddressed. To overcome these limitations, we introduce ST-LINK, a novel framework that enhances the capability of Large Language Models to capture spatio-temporal dependencies. Its key components are Spatially-Enhanced Attention (SE-Attention) and the Memory Retrieval Feed-Forward Network (MRFFN). SE-Attention extends rotary position embeddings to integrate spatial correlations as direct rotational transformations within the attention mechanism. This approach maximizes spatial learning while preserving the LLM's inherent sequential processing structure. Meanwhile, MRFFN dynamically retrieves and utilizes key historical patterns to capture complex temporal dependencies and improve the stability of long-term forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that ST-LINK surpasses conventional deep learning and LLM approaches, and effectively captures both regular traffic patterns and abrupt changes.

Every day, countless surgeries are performed worldwide, each within the distinct settings of operating rooms (ORs) that vary not only in their setups but also in the personnel, tools, and equipment used. This inherent diversity poses a substantial challenge for achieving a holistic understanding of the OR, as it requires models to generalize beyond their initial training datasets. To reduce this gap, we introduce ORacle, an advanced vision-language model designed for holistic OR domain modeling, which incorporates multi-view and temporal capabilities and can leverage external knowledge during inference, enabling it to adapt to previously unseen surgical scenarios. This capability is further enhanced by our novel data augmentation framework, which significantly diversifies the training dataset, ensuring ORacle's proficiency in applying the provided knowledge effectively. In rigorous testing, in scene graph generation, and downstream tasks on the 4D-OR dataset, ORacle not only demonstrates state-of-the-art performance but does so requiring less data than existing models. Furthermore, its adaptability is displayed through its ability to interpret unseen views, actions, and appearances of tools and equipment. This demonstrates ORacle's potential to significantly enhance the scalability and affordability of OR domain modeling and opens a pathway for future advancements in surgical data science. We will release our code and data upon acceptance.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

In recent years, foundational models have revolutionized the fields of language and vision, demonstrating remarkable abilities in understanding and generating complex data; however, similar advances in user behavior modeling have been limited, largely due to the complexity of behavioral data and the challenges involved in capturing intricate temporal and contextual relationships in user activities. To address this, we propose BehaveGPT, a foundational model designed specifically for large-scale user behavior prediction. Leveraging transformer-based architecture and a novel pretraining paradigm, BehaveGPT is trained on vast user behavior datasets, allowing it to learn complex behavior patterns and support a range of downstream tasks, including next behavior prediction, long-term generation, and cross-domain adaptation. Our approach introduces the DRO-based pretraining paradigm tailored for user behavior data, which improves model generalization and transferability by equitably modeling both head and tail behaviors. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that BehaveGPT outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving more than a 10% improvement in macro and weighted recall, showcasing its ability to effectively capture and predict user behavior. Furthermore, we measure the scaling law in the user behavior domain for the first time on the Honor dataset, providing insights into how model performance scales with increased data and parameter sizes.

This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal patterns in stock price data, effectively modeling the time series dynamics of financial markets. Concurrently, the GNN component leverages Pearson correlation and association analysis to model inter-stock relational data, capturing complex nonlinear polyadic dependencies influencing stock prices. The model is trained and evaluated using an expanding window validation approach, enabling continuous learning from increasing amounts of data and adaptation to evolving market conditions. Extensive experiments conducted on historical stock data demonstrate that our hybrid LSTM-GNN model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00144, representing a substantial reduction of 10.6% compared to the MSE of the standalone LSTM model of 0.00161. Furthermore, the hybrid model outperforms traditional and advanced benchmarks, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and dense networks. These compelling results underscore the significant potential of combining temporal and relational data through a hybrid approach, offering a powerful tool for real-time trading and financial analysis.

Video-based spatial cognition is vital for robotics and embodied AI but challenges current Vision-Language Models (VLMs). This paper makes two key contributions. First, we introduce ViCA (Visuospatial Cognitive Assistant)-322K, a diverse dataset of 322,003 QA pairs from real-world indoor videos (ARKitScenes, ScanNet, ScanNet++), offering supervision for 3D metadata-grounded queries and video-based complex reasoning. Second, we develop ViCA-7B, fine-tuned on ViCA-322K, which achieves new state-of-the-art on all eight VSI-Bench tasks, outperforming existing models, including larger ones (e.g., +26.1 on Absolute Distance). For interpretability, we present ViCA-Thinking-2.68K, a dataset with explicit reasoning chains, and fine-tune ViCA-7B to create ViCA-7B-Thinking, a model that articulates its spatial reasoning. Our work highlights the importance of targeted data and suggests paths for improved temporal-spatial modeling. We release all resources to foster research in robust visuospatial intelligence.

The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence Generated Content (AIGC) technologies, particularly in video generation, has led to unprecedented creative capabilities but also increased threats to information integrity, identity security, and public trust. Existing detection methods, while effective in general scenarios, lack robust solutions for human-centric videos, which pose greater risks due to their realism and potential for legal and ethical misuse. Moreover, current detection approaches often suffer from poor generalization, limited scalability, and reliance on labor-intensive supervised fine-tuning. To address these challenges, we propose AvatarShield, the first interpretable MLLM-based framework for detecting human-centric fake videos, enhanced via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Through our carefully designed accuracy detection reward and temporal compensation reward, it effectively avoids the use of high-cost text annotation data, enabling precise temporal modeling and forgery detection. Meanwhile, we design a dual-encoder architecture, combining high-level semantic reasoning and low-level artifact amplification to guide MLLMs in effective forgery detection. We further collect FakeHumanVid, a large-scale human-centric video benchmark that includes synthesis methods guided by pose, audio, and text inputs, enabling rigorous evaluation of detection methods in real-world scenes. Extensive experiments show that AvatarShield significantly outperforms existing approaches in both in-domain and cross-domain detection, setting a new standard for human-centric video forensics.

Text-driven human motion generation is a multimodal task that synthesizes human motion sequences conditioned on natural language. It requires the model to satisfy textual descriptions under varying conditional inputs, while generating plausible and realistic human actions with high diversity. Existing diffusion model-based approaches have outstanding performance in the diversity and multimodality of generation. However, compared to autoregressive methods that train motion encoders before inference, diffusion methods lack in fitting the distribution of human motion features which leads to an unsatisfactory FID score. One insight is that the diffusion model lack the ability to learn the motion relations among spatio-temporal semantics through contextual reasoning. To solve this issue, in this paper, we proposed Motion Masked Diffusion Model (MMDM), a novel human motion masked mechanism for diffusion model to explicitly enhance its ability to learn the spatio-temporal relationships from contextual joints among motion sequences. Besides, considering the complexity of human motion data with dynamic temporal characteristics and spatial structure, we designed two mask modeling strategies: time frames mask and body parts mask. During training, MMDM masks certain tokens in the motion embedding space. Then, the diffusion decoder is designed to learn the whole motion sequence from masked embedding in each sampling step, this allows the model to recover a complete sequence from incomplete representations. Experiments on HumanML3D and KIT-ML dataset demonstrate that our mask strategy is effective by balancing motion quality and text-motion consistency.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), temporal convolutions, and neural differential equations (NDEs) are popular families of deep learning models for time-series data, each with unique strengths and tradeoffs in modeling power and computational efficiency. We introduce a simple sequence model inspired by control systems that generalizes these approaches while addressing their shortcomings. The Linear State-Space Layer (LSSL) maps a sequence u mapsto y by simply simulating a linear continuous-time state-space representation x = Ax + Bu, y = Cx + Du. Theoretically, we show that LSSL models are closely related to the three aforementioned families of models and inherit their strengths. For example, they generalize convolutions to continuous-time, explain common RNN heuristics, and share features of NDEs such as time-scale adaptation. We then incorporate and generalize recent theory on continuous-time memorization to introduce a trainable subset of structured matrices A that endow LSSLs with long-range memory. Empirically, stacking LSSL layers into a simple deep neural network obtains state-of-the-art results across time series benchmarks for long dependencies in sequential image classification, real-world healthcare regression tasks, and speech. On a difficult speech classification task with length-16000 sequences, LSSL outperforms prior approaches by 24 accuracy points, and even outperforms baselines that use hand-crafted features on 100x shorter sequences.

Learning the continuous dynamics of a system from snapshots of its temporal marginals is a problem which appears throughout natural sciences and machine learning, including in quantum systems, single-cell biological data, and generative modeling. In these settings, we assume access to cross-sectional samples that are uncorrelated over time, rather than full trajectories of samples. In order to better understand the systems under observation, we would like to learn a model of the underlying process that allows us to propagate samples in time and thereby simulate entire individual trajectories. In this work, we propose Action Matching, a method for learning a rich family of dynamics using only independent samples from its time evolution. We derive a tractable training objective, which does not rely on explicit assumptions about the underlying dynamics and does not require back-propagation through differential equations or optimal transport solvers. Inspired by connections with optimal transport, we derive extensions of Action Matching to learn stochastic differential equations and dynamics involving creation and destruction of probability mass. Finally, we showcase applications of Action Matching by achieving competitive performance in a diverse set of experiments from biology, physics, and generative modeling.

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

Reconstructing human vision from brain activities has been an appealing task that helps to understand our cognitive process. Even though recent research has seen great success in reconstructing static images from non-invasive brain recordings, work on recovering continuous visual experiences in the form of videos is limited. In this work, we propose Mind-Video that learns spatiotemporal information from continuous fMRI data of the cerebral cortex progressively through masked brain modeling, multimodal contrastive learning with spatiotemporal attention, and co-training with an augmented Stable Diffusion model that incorporates network temporal inflation. We show that high-quality videos of arbitrary frame rates can be reconstructed with Mind-Video using adversarial guidance. The recovered videos were evaluated with various semantic and pixel-level metrics. We achieved an average accuracy of 85% in semantic classification tasks and 0.19 in structural similarity index (SSIM), outperforming the previous state-of-the-art by 45%. We also show that our model is biologically plausible and interpretable, reflecting established physiological processes.

Recent Large Language Models have been enhanced with vision capabilities, enabling them to comprehend images, videos, and interleaved vision-language content. However, the learning methods of these large multimodal models typically treat videos as predetermined clips, making them less effective and efficient at handling streaming video inputs. In this paper, we propose a novel Learning-In-Video-Stream (LIVE) framework, which enables temporally aligned, long-context, and real-time conversation within a continuous video stream. Our LIVE framework comprises comprehensive approaches to achieve video streaming dialogue, encompassing: (1) a training objective designed to perform language modeling for continuous streaming inputs, (2) a data generation scheme that converts offline temporal annotations into a streaming dialogue format, and (3) an optimized inference pipeline to speed up the model responses in real-world video streams. With our LIVE framework, we built VideoLLM-online model upon Llama-2/Llama-3 and demonstrate its significant advantages in processing streaming videos. For instance, on average, our model can support streaming dialogue in a 5-minute video clip at over 10 FPS on an A100 GPU. Moreover, it also showcases state-of-the-art performance on public offline video benchmarks, such as recognition, captioning, and forecasting. The code, model, data, and demo have been made available at https://showlab.github.io/videollm-online.

Methods based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to build generative models of time-series. In addition to high computational overhead due to explicitly computing hidden states recurrence, existing ODE-based models fall short in learning sequence data with sharp transitions - common in many real-world systems - due to numerical challenges during optimization. In this work, we propose LS4, a generative model for sequences with latent variables evolving according to a state space ODE to increase modeling capacity. Inspired by recent deep state space models (S4), we achieve speedups by leveraging a convolutional representation of LS4 which bypasses the explicit evaluation of hidden states. We show that LS4 significantly outperforms previous continuous-time generative models in terms of marginal distribution, classification, and prediction scores on real-world datasets in the Monash Forecasting Repository, and is capable of modeling highly stochastic data with sharp temporal transitions. LS4 sets state-of-the-art for continuous-time latent generative models, with significant improvement of mean squared error and tighter variational lower bounds on irregularly-sampled datasets, while also being x100 faster than other baselines on long sequences.

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series data is of paramount importance for ensuring the efficient operation of large-scale systems across diverse domains. However, accurately detecting anomalies in such data poses significant challenges. Existing approaches, including forecasting and reconstruction-based methods, struggle to address these challenges effectively. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel anomaly detection framework named ImDiffusion, which combines time series imputation and diffusion models to achieve accurate and robust anomaly detection. The imputation-based approach employed by ImDiffusion leverages the information from neighboring values in the time series, enabling precise modeling of temporal and inter-correlated dependencies, reducing uncertainty in the data, thereby enhancing the robustness of the anomaly detection process. ImDiffusion further leverages diffusion models as time series imputers to accurately capturing complex dependencies. We leverage the step-by-step denoised outputs generated during the inference process to serve as valuable signals for anomaly prediction, resulting in improved accuracy and robustness of the detection process. We evaluate the performance of ImDiffusion via extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. The results demonstrate that our proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in terms of detection accuracy and timeliness. ImDiffusion is further integrated into the real production system in Microsoft and observe a remarkable 11.4% increase in detection F1 score compared to the legacy approach. To the best of our knowledge, ImDiffusion represents a pioneering approach that combines imputation-based techniques with time series anomaly detection, while introducing the novel use of diffusion models to the field.

The vision community is witnessing a modeling shift from CNNs to Transformers, where pure Transformer architectures have attained top accuracy on the major video recognition benchmarks. These video models are all built on Transformer layers that globally connect patches across the spatial and temporal dimensions. In this paper, we instead advocate an inductive bias of locality in video Transformers, which leads to a better speed-accuracy trade-off compared to previous approaches which compute self-attention globally even with spatial-temporal factorization. The locality of the proposed video architecture is realized by adapting the Swin Transformer designed for the image domain, while continuing to leverage the power of pre-trained image models. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on a broad range of video recognition benchmarks, including on action recognition (84.9 top-1 accuracy on Kinetics-400 and 86.1 top-1 accuracy on Kinetics-600 with ~20x less pre-training data and ~3x smaller model size) and temporal modeling (69.6 top-1 accuracy on Something-Something v2). The code and models will be made publicly available at https://github.com/SwinTransformer/Video-Swin-Transformer.

Learning from multi-variate time-series with heterogeneous channel configurations remains a fundamental challenge for deep neural networks (DNNs), particularly in clinical domains such as intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG), where channel setups vary widely across subjects. In this work, we introduce multi-variate parallel attention (MVPA), a novel self-attention mechanism that disentangles content, temporal, and spatial attention, enabling flexible, generalizable, and efficient modeling of time-series data with varying channel counts and configurations. We use MVPA to build MVPFormer, a generative foundation model for human electrophysiology, trained to predict the evolution of iEEG signals across diverse subjects. To support this and future effort by the community, we release the SWEC iEEG dataset, the largest publicly available iEEG dataset to date, comprising nearly 10,000 hours of recordings from heterogeneous clinical sources. MVPFormer leverages MVPA to achieve strong generalization across subjects, demonstrating expert-level performance in seizure detection and outperforming state-of-the-art Transformer baselines on our SWEC, the MAYO, and the FNUSA dataset. We further validate MVPA on standard time-series forecasting and classification tasks, where it matches or exceeds existing attention-based models. Together, our contributions establish MVPA as a general-purpose attention mechanism for heterogeneous time-series and MVPFormer as the first open-source, open-weights, and open-data iEEG foundation model with state-of-the-art clinical performance. The code is available at https://github.com/IBM/multi-variate-parallel-transformer. The SWEC iEEG dataset is available at https://mb-neuro.medical-blocks.ch/public_access/databases/ieeg/swec_ieeg.

The rapid expansion of digital information and knowledge across structured and unstructured sources has heightened the importance of Information Retrieval (IR). While dense retrieval methods have substantially improved semantic matching for general queries, they consistently underperform on queries with explicit temporal constraints--often those containing numerical expressions and time specifiers such as ``in 2015.'' Existing approaches to Temporal Information Retrieval (TIR) improve temporal reasoning but often suffer from catastrophic forgetting, leading to reduced performance on non-temporal queries. To address this, we propose Time-Specifier Model Merging (TSM), a novel method that enhances temporal retrieval while preserving accuracy on non-temporal queries. TSM trains specialized retrievers for individual time specifiers and merges them in to a unified model, enabling precise handling of temporal constraints without compromising non-temporal retrieval. Extensive experiments on both temporal and non-temporal datasets demonstrate that TSM significantly improves performance on temporally constrained queries while maintaining strong results on non-temporal queries, consistently outperforming other baseline methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/seungyoonee/TSM .

Time plays a critical role in how information is generated, retrieved, and interpreted. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of Temporal Information Retrieval and Temporal Question Answering, two research areas aimed at handling and understanding time-sensitive information. As the amount of time-stamped content from sources like news articles, web archives, and knowledge bases increases, systems must address challenges such as detecting temporal intent, normalizing time expressions, ordering events, and reasoning over evolving or ambiguous facts. These challenges are critical across many dynamic and time-sensitive domains, from news and encyclopedias to science, history, and social media. We review both traditional approaches and modern neural methods, including those that use transformer models and Large Language Models (LLMs). We also review recent advances in temporal language modeling, multi-hop reasoning, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), alongside benchmark datasets and evaluation strategies that test temporal robustness, recency awareness, and generalization.

In the evolving field of Natural Language Processing, understanding the temporal context of text is increasingly crucial. This study investigates methods to incorporate temporal information during pre-training, aiming to achieve effective time-aware language representation for improved performance on time-related tasks. In contrast to common pre-trained models like BERT, which rely on synchronic document collections such as BookCorpus and Wikipedia, our research introduces BiTimeBERT 2.0, a novel language model pre-trained on a temporal news article collection. BiTimeBERT 2.0 utilizes this temporal news collection, focusing on three innovative pre-training objectives: Time-Aware Masked Language Modeling (TAMLM), Document Dating (DD), and Time-Sensitive Entity Replacement (TSER). Each objective targets a unique aspect of temporal information. TAMLM is designed to enhance the understanding of temporal contexts and relations, DD integrates document timestamps as chronological markers, and TSER focuses on the temporal dynamics of "Person" entities, recognizing their inherent temporal significance. The experimental results consistently demonstrate that BiTimeBERT 2.0 outperforms models like BERT and other existing pre-trained models, achieving substantial gains across a variety of downstream NLP tasks and applications where time plays a pivotal role.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly becoming ubiquitous, yet their ability to reason about and retain temporal information remains limited. This hinders their application in real-world scenarios where understanding the sequential nature of events is crucial. This paper experiments with state-of-the-art models on a novel, large-scale temporal dataset, TempUN, to reveal significant limitations in temporal retention and reasoning abilities. Interestingly, closed-source models indicate knowledge gaps more frequently, potentially suggesting a trade-off between uncertainty awareness and incorrect responses. Further, exploring various fine-tuning approaches yielded no major performance improvements. The associated dataset and code are available at the following URL (https://github.com/lingoiitgn/TempUN).

The facts and time in the document are intricately intertwined, making temporal reasoning over documents challenging. Previous work models time implicitly, making it difficult to handle such complex relationships. To address this issue, we propose MTGER, a novel Multi-view Temporal Graph Enhanced Temporal Reasoning framework for temporal reasoning over time-involved documents. Concretely, MTGER explicitly models the temporal relationships among facts by multi-view temporal graphs. On the one hand, the heterogeneous temporal graphs explicitly model the temporal and discourse relationships among facts; on the other hand, the multi-view mechanism captures both time-focused and fact-focused information, allowing the two views to complement each other through adaptive fusion. To further improve the implicit reasoning capability of the model, we design a self-supervised time-comparing objective. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the TimeQA and SituatedQA datasets. Furthermore, MTGER gives more consistent answers under question perturbations.

We present time vectors, a simple tool to customize language models to new time periods. Time vectors are created by finetuning a language model on data from a single time (e.g., a year or month), and then subtracting the weights of the original pretrained model. This vector specifies a direction in weight space that, as our experiments show, improves performance on text from that time period. Time vectors specialized to adjacent time periods appear to be positioned closer together in a manifold. Using this structure, we interpolate between time vectors to induce new models that perform better on intervening and future time periods, without any additional training. We demonstrate the consistency of our findings across different tasks, domains, model sizes, and time scales. Our results suggest that time is encoded in the weight space of finetuned models.

Despite its importance, the time variable has been largely neglected in the NLP and language model literature. In this paper, we present TimeLMs, a set of language models specialized on diachronic Twitter data. We show that a continual learning strategy contributes to enhancing Twitter-based language models' capacity to deal with future and out-of-distribution tweets, while making them competitive with standardized and more monolithic benchmarks. We also perform a number of qualitative analyses showing how they cope with trends and peaks in activity involving specific named entities or concept drift.

Reasoning about time is essential for understanding the nuances of events described in natural language. Previous research on this topic has been limited in scope, characterized by a lack of standardized benchmarks that would allow for consistent evaluations across different studies. In this paper, we introduce TRAM, a temporal reasoning benchmark composed of ten datasets, encompassing various temporal aspects of events such as order, arithmetic, frequency, and duration, designed to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of the TeR capabilities of large language models (LLMs). We evaluate popular LLMs like GPT-4 and Llama2 in zero-shot and few-shot scenarios, and establish baselines with BERT-based and domain-specific models. Our findings indicate that the best-performing model lags significantly behind human performance. It is our aspiration that TRAM will spur further progress in enhancing the TeR capabilities of LLMs.

Temporal knowledge graphs represent temporal facts (s,p,o,tau) relating a subject s and an object o via a relation label p at time tau, where tau could be a time point or time interval. Temporal knowledge graphs may exhibit static temporal patterns at distinct points in time and dynamic temporal patterns between different timestamps. In order to learn a rich set of static and dynamic temporal patterns and apply them for inference, several embedding approaches have been suggested in the literature. However, as most of them resort to single underlying embedding spaces, their capability to model all kinds of temporal patterns was severely limited by having to adhere to the geometric property of their one embedding space. We lift this limitation by an embedding approach that maps temporal facts into a product space of several heterogeneous geometric subspaces with distinct geometric properties, i.e.\ Complex, Dual, and Split-complex spaces. In addition, we propose a temporal-geometric attention mechanism to integrate information from different geometric subspaces conveniently according to the captured relational and temporal information. Experimental results on standard temporal benchmark datasets favorably evaluate our approach against state-of-the-art models.

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have been widely used for event sequence modeling, but they often struggle to incorporate rich textual event descriptions effectively. Conversely, while Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown remarkable capabilities in processing textual data, they lack mechanisms for handling temporal dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce Language-TPP, a unified framework that integrates TPPs with LLMs for enhanced event sequence modeling. Language-TPP introduces a novel temporal encoding mechanism that converts continuous time intervals into specialized byte-tokens, enabling seamless integration with standard LLM architectures. This approach allows Language-TPP to achieve state-of-the-art performance across multiple TPP tasks, including event time prediction, type prediction, and intensity estimation, on five datasets. Additionally, we demonstrate that incorporating temporal information significantly improves the quality of generated event descriptions.

Knowledge is inherently time-sensitive and continuously evolves over time. Although current Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems enrich LLMs with external knowledge, they largely ignore this temporal nature. This raises two challenges for RAG. First, current RAG methods lack effective time-aware representations. Same facts of different time are difficult to distinguish with vector embeddings or conventional knowledge graphs. Second, most RAG evaluations assume a static corpus, leaving a blind spot regarding update costs and retrieval stability as knowledge evolves. To make RAG time-aware, we propose Temporal GraphRAG (TG-RAG), which models external corpora as a bi-level temporal graph consisting of a temporal knowledge graph with timestamped relations and a hierarchical time graph. Multi-granularity temporal summaries are generated for each time node to capture both key events and broader trends at that time. The design supports incremental updates by extracting new temporal facts from the incoming corpus and merging them into the existing graph. The temporal graph explicitly represents identical facts at different times as distinct edges to avoid ambiguity, and the time hierarchy graph allows only generating reports for new leaf time nodes and their ancestors, ensuring effective and efficient updates. During inference, TG-RAG dynamically retrieves a subgraph within the temporal and semantic scope of the query, enabling precise evidence gathering. Moreover, we introduce ECT-QA, a time-sensitive question-answering dataset featuring both specific and abstract queries, along with a comprehensive evaluation protocol designed to assess incremental update capabilities of RAG systems. Extensive experiments show that TG-RAG significantly outperforms existing baselines, demonstrating the effectiveness of our method in handling temporal knowledge and incremental updates.

Large language models (LLMs) have showcased remarkable reasoning capabilities, yet they remain susceptible to errors, particularly in temporal reasoning tasks involving complex temporal logic. Existing research has explored LLM performance on temporal reasoning using diverse datasets and benchmarks. However, these studies often rely on real-world data that LLMs may have encountered during pre-training or employ anonymization techniques that can inadvertently introduce factual inconsistencies. In this work, we address these limitations by introducing novel synthetic datasets specifically designed to assess LLM temporal reasoning abilities in various scenarios. The diversity of question types across these datasets enables systematic investigation into the impact of the problem structure, size, question type, fact order, and other factors on LLM performance. Our findings provide valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of current LLMs in temporal reasoning tasks. To foster further research in this area, we are open-sourcing the datasets and evaluation framework used in our experiments: https://huggingface.co/datasets/baharef/ToT.

Language Models (LMs) have shown substantial improvements in handling factual knowledge, yet their capability to consistently represent temporal facts, which are valid only within specific timeframes, remains underexplored. To investigate this, we introduce TimeStress, a novel dataset comprising 521K statements on 2003 of the most popular temporal facts in Wikidata. Each statement contextualizes a fact with correct and incorrect dates across three precisions (Day, Month, Year). This setup allows us to evaluate LMs' ability to discern between correct and incorrect temporal statements based on their probability of being generated. We assess 18 LMs across various architectures using two metrics: the win rate, indicating how often correct dates outperform incorrect ones, and robustness, reflecting consistent performance across all dates. Our findings reveal that while some LMs achieve a win rate exceeding 80\%, robustness remains low, with the best model achieving only 6\%. Furthermore, robust knowledge at one date precision does not reliably transfer to others, highlighting a significant generalization gap. These results underscore the struggle of LMs to maintain a consistent temporal representation, supporting their limitations as reliable sources of temporal knowledge. We provide all data and code for further research.

Reasoning about time is of fundamental importance. Many facts are time-dependent. For example, athletes change teams from time to time, and different government officials are elected periodically. Previous time-dependent question answering (QA) datasets tend to be biased in either their coverage of time spans or question types. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive probing dataset \tempreason to evaluate the temporal reasoning capability of large language models. Our dataset includes questions of three temporal reasoning levels. In addition, we also propose a novel learning framework to improve the temporal reasoning capability of large language models, based on temporal span extraction and time-sensitive reinforcement learning. We conducted experiments in closed book QA, open book QA, and reasoning QA settings and demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach. Our code and data are released on https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/TempReason.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to the development of benchmarks that consider temporal dynamics, however, there remains a gap in understanding how well these models can generalize across temporal contexts due to the inherent dynamic nature of language and information. This paper introduces the concept of temporal generalization in LLMs, including bias in past and future generalizations. Then we introduce FreshBench, a new evaluation framework that employs fresh text and event prediction for assessing LLMs' temporal adaptability, ensuring the evaluation process free from data leakage and subjective bias. The experiment shows significant temporal biases and a decline in performance over time. Our findings reveal that powerful models, while initially superior, tend to decline more rapidly in future generalization. Additionally, powerful open-source models demonstrate better long-term adaptability compared to their closed-source counterparts. Our code is available at https://github.com/FreedomIntelligence/FreshBench.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in various NLP tasks, yet they still face significant challenges in reasoning and arithmetic. Temporal reasoning, a critical component of natural language understanding, has raised increasing research attention. However, comprehensive testing of Allen's interval relations (e.g., before, after, during) -- a fundamental framework for temporal relationships -- remains underexplored. To fill this gap, we present ChronoSense, a new benchmark for evaluating LLMs' temporal understanding. It includes 16 tasks, focusing on identifying the Allen relation between two temporal events and temporal arithmetic, using both abstract events and real-world data from Wikidata. We assess the performance of seven recent LLMs using this benchmark and the results indicate that models handle Allen relations, even symmetrical ones, quite differently. Moreover, the findings suggest that the models may rely on memorization to answer time-related questions. Overall, the models' low performance highlights the need for improved temporal understanding in LLMs and ChronoSense offers a robust framework for future research in this area. Our dataset and the source code are available at https://github.com/duyguislakoglu/chronosense.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly impacted many aspects of our lives. However, assessing and ensuring their chronological knowledge remains challenging. Existing approaches fall short in addressing the accumulative nature of knowledge, often relying on a single time stamp. To overcome this, we introduce ChroKnowBench, a benchmark dataset designed to evaluate chronologically accumulated knowledge across three key aspects: multiple domains, time dependency, temporal state. Our benchmark distinguishes between knowledge that evolves (e.g., scientific discoveries, amended laws) and knowledge that remain constant (e.g., mathematical truths, commonsense facts). Building on this benchmark, we present ChroKnowledge (Chronological Categorization of Knowledge), a novel sampling-based framework for evaluating and updating LLMs' non-parametric chronological knowledge. Our evaluation shows: (1) The ability of eliciting temporal knowledge varies depending on the data format that model was trained on. (2) LLMs partially recall knowledge or show a cut-off at temporal boundaries rather than recalling all aspects of knowledge correctly. Thus, we apply our ChroKnowPrompt, an in-depth prompting to elicit chronological knowledge by traversing step-by-step through the surrounding time spans. We observe that our framework successfully updates the overall knowledge across the entire timeline in both the biomedical domain (+11.9%) and the general domain (+2.8%), demonstrating its effectiveness in refining temporal knowledge. This non-parametric approach also enables knowledge updates not only in open-source models but also in proprietary LLMs, ensuring comprehensive applicability across model types. We perform a comprehensive analysis based on temporal characteristics of ChroKnowPrompt and validate the potential of various models to elicit intrinsic temporal knowledge through our method.

This paper introduces DateLogicQA, a benchmark with 190 questions covering diverse date formats, temporal contexts, and reasoning types. We propose the Semantic Integrity Metric to assess tokenization quality and analyse two biases: Representation-Level Bias, affecting embeddings, and Logical-Level Bias, influencing reasoning outputs. Our findings provide a comprehensive evaluation of LLMs' capabilities and limitations in temporal reasoning, highlighting key challenges in handling temporal data accurately. The GitHub repository for our work is available at https://github.com/gagan3012/EAIS-Temporal-Bias

Time series data is fundamental to decision-making in many crucial domains including healthcare, finance, and environmental science. However, analyzing this data often requires incorporating unstructured contextual information, answering domain-specific questions, and generating natural language explanations -- capabilities that traditional time series models lack due to their inability to process text. While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at contextual reasoning and knowledge integration, they struggle with numerical time series due to inefficient text-based representations and limited exposure to temporal data during pretraining. We address this gap by augmenting an LLM with specialized time series perception through a patch-based encoder-decoder architecture. We train this Time Series-augmented LLM (TsLLM) on a large corpus of over 2 million interleaved time series and text examples spanning diverse analysis tasks: forecasting with contextual information, time series question-answering, pattern explanation, classification with natural language outputs, and report generation. This training enables TsLLM to leverage both its language understanding and newly acquired temporal reasoning capabilities. While not designed to surpass specialized models on traditional benchmarks, TsLLM demonstrates strong performance on tasks requiring the integration of time series analysis with natural language -- capabilities that existing approaches cannot provide. Our work establishes a new paradigm for time series analysis that bridges numerical computation and natural language understanding, democratizing access to sophisticated temporal reasoning through natural language interaction.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for generating coherent text, understanding context, and performing reasoning tasks. However, they struggle with temporal reasoning, which requires processing time-related information such as event sequencing, durations, and inter-temporal relationships. These capabilities are critical for applications including question answering, scheduling, and historical analysis. In this paper, we introduce TISER, a novel framework that enhances the temporal reasoning abilities of LLMs through a multi-stage process that combines timeline construction with iterative self-reflection. Our approach leverages test-time scaling to extend the length of reasoning traces, enabling models to capture complex temporal dependencies more effectively. This strategy not only boosts reasoning accuracy but also improves the traceability of the inference process. Experimental results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across multiple benchmarks, including out-of-distribution test sets, and reveal that TISER enables smaller open-source models to surpass larger closed-weight models on challenging temporal reasoning tasks.

Temporal reasoning is a crucial NLP task, providing a nuanced understanding of time-sensitive contexts within textual data. Although recent advancements in LLMs have demonstrated their potential in temporal reasoning, the predominant focus has been on tasks such as temporal expression and temporal relation extraction. These tasks are primarily designed for the extraction of direct and past temporal cues and to engage in simple reasoning processes. A significant gap remains when considering complex reasoning tasks such as event forecasting, which requires multi-step temporal reasoning on events and prediction on the future timestamp. Another notable limitation of existing methods is their incapability to provide an illustration of their reasoning process, hindering explainability. In this paper, we introduce the first task of explainable temporal reasoning, to predict an event's occurrence at a future timestamp based on context which requires multiple reasoning over multiple events, and subsequently provide a clear explanation for their prediction. Our task offers a comprehensive evaluation of both the LLMs' complex temporal reasoning ability, the future event prediction ability, and explainability-a critical attribute for AI applications. To support this task, we present the first multi-source instruction-tuning dataset of explainable temporal reasoning (ExpTime) with 26k derived from the temporal knowledge graph datasets and their temporal reasoning paths, using a novel knowledge-graph-instructed-generation strategy. Based on the dataset, we propose the first open-source LLM series TimeLlaMA based on the foundation LlaMA2, with the ability of instruction following for explainable temporal reasoning. We compare the performance of our method and a variety of LLMs, where our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of temporal prediction and explanation.

Temporal point processes (TPPs) are widely used to model the timing and occurrence of events in domains such as social networks, transportation systems, and e-commerce. In this paper, we introduce TPP-LLM, a novel framework that integrates large language models (LLMs) with TPPs to capture both the semantic and temporal aspects of event sequences. Unlike traditional methods that rely on categorical event type representations, TPP-LLM directly utilizes the textual descriptions of event types, enabling the model to capture rich semantic information embedded in the text. While LLMs excel at understanding event semantics, they are less adept at capturing temporal patterns. To address this, TPP-LLM incorporates temporal embeddings and employs parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods to effectively learn temporal dynamics without extensive retraining. This approach improves both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Experimental results across diverse real-world datasets demonstrate that TPP-LLM outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in sequence modeling and event prediction, highlighting the benefits of combining LLMs with TPPs.

Time series data is essential in various applications, including climate modeling, healthcare monitoring, and financial analytics. Understanding the contextual information associated with real-world time series data is often essential for accurate and reliable event predictions. In this paper, we introduce TimeCAP, a time-series processing framework that creatively employs Large Language Models (LLMs) as contextualizers of time series data, extending their typical usage as predictors. TimeCAP incorporates two independent LLM agents: one generates a textual summary capturing the context of the time series, while the other uses this enriched summary to make more informed predictions. In addition, TimeCAP employs a multi-modal encoder that synergizes with the LLM agents, enhancing predictive performance through mutual augmentation of inputs with in-context examples. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeCAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series event prediction, including those utilizing LLMs as predictors, achieving an average improvement of 28.75% in F1 score.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of completing knowledge intensive tasks by recalling information from a static pretraining corpus. Here we are concerned with LLMs in the context of evolving data requirements. For instance: batches of new data that are introduced periodically; subsets of data with user-based access controls; or requirements on dynamic removal of documents with guarantees that associated knowledge cannot be recalled. We wish to satisfy these requirements while at the same time ensuring a model does not forget old information when new data becomes available. To address these issues, we introduce AdapterSwap, a training and inference scheme that organizes knowledge from a data collection into a set of low-rank adapters, which are dynamically composed during inference. Our experiments demonstrate AdapterSwap's ability to support efficient continual learning, while also enabling organizations to have fine-grained control over data access and deletion.

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer the potential for automatic time series analysis and reporting, which is a critical task across many domains, spanning healthcare, finance, climate, energy, and many more. In this paper, we propose a framework for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of LLMs on time series understanding, encompassing both univariate and multivariate forms. We introduce a comprehensive taxonomy of time series features, a critical framework that delineates various characteristics inherent in time series data. Leveraging this taxonomy, we have systematically designed and synthesized a diverse dataset of time series, embodying the different outlined features. This dataset acts as a solid foundation for assessing the proficiency of LLMs in comprehending time series. Our experiments shed light on the strengths and limitations of state-of-the-art LLMs in time series understanding, revealing which features these models readily comprehend effectively and where they falter. In addition, we uncover the sensitivity of LLMs to factors including the formatting of the data, the position of points queried within a series and the overall time series length.

Understanding temporal relations and answering time-sensitive questions is crucial yet a challenging task for question-answering systems powered by large language models (LLMs). Existing approaches either update the parametric knowledge of LLMs with new facts, which is resource-intensive and often impractical, or integrate LLMs with external knowledge retrieval (i.e., retrieval-augmented generation). However, off-the-shelf retrievers often struggle to identify relevant documents that require intensive temporal reasoning. To systematically study time-sensitive question answering, we introduce the TempRAGEval benchmark, which repurposes existing datasets by incorporating temporal perturbations and gold evidence labels. As anticipated, all existing retrieval methods struggle with these temporal reasoning-intensive questions. We further propose Modular Retrieval (MRAG), a trainless framework that includes three modules: (1) Question Processing that decomposes question into a main content and a temporal constraint; (2) Retrieval and Summarization that retrieves evidence and uses LLMs to summarize according to the main content; (3) Semantic-Temporal Hybrid Ranking that scores each evidence summarization based on both semantic and temporal relevance. On TempRAGEval, MRAG significantly outperforms baseline retrievers in retrieval performance, leading to further improvements in final answer accuracy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive reasoning abilities, but struggle with temporal understanding, especially when questions involve multiple entities, compound operators, and evolving event sequences. Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs), which capture vast amounts of temporal facts in a structured format, offer a reliable source for temporal reasoning. However, existing TKG-based LLM reasoning methods still struggle with four major challenges: maintaining temporal faithfulness in multi-hop reasoning, achieving multi-entity temporal synchronization, adapting retrieval to diverse temporal operators, and reusing prior reasoning experience for stability and efficiency. To address these issues, we propose MemoTime, a memory-augmented temporal knowledge graph framework that enhances LLM reasoning through structured grounding, recursive reasoning, and continual experience learning. MemoTime decomposes complex temporal questions into a hierarchical Tree of Time, enabling operator-aware reasoning that enforces monotonic timestamps and co-constrains multiple entities under unified temporal bounds. A dynamic evidence retrieval layer adaptively selects operator-specific retrieval strategies, while a self-evolving experience memory stores verified reasoning traces, toolkit decisions, and sub-question embeddings for cross-type reuse. Comprehensive experiments on multiple temporal QA benchmarks show that MemoTime achieves overall state-of-the-art results, outperforming the strong baseline by up to 24.0%. Furthermore, MemoTime enables smaller models (e.g., Qwen3-4B) to achieve reasoning performance comparable to that of GPT-4-Turbo.

Are Large language models (LLMs) temporally grounded? Since LLMs cannot perceive and interact with the environment, it is impossible to answer this question directly. Instead, we provide LLMs with textual narratives and probe them with respect to their common-sense knowledge of the structure and duration of events, their ability to order events along a timeline, and self-consistency within their temporal model (e.g., temporal relations such as after and before are mutually exclusive for any pair of events). We evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (such as LLaMA 2 and GPT-4) on three tasks reflecting these abilities. Generally, we find that LLMs lag significantly behind both human performance as well as small-scale, specialised LMs. In-context learning, instruction tuning, and chain-of-thought prompting reduce this gap only to a limited degree. Crucially, LLMs struggle the most with self-consistency, displaying incoherent behaviour in at least 27.23% of their predictions. Contrary to expectations, we also find that scaling the model size does not guarantee positive gains in performance. To explain these results, we study the sources from which LLMs may gather temporal information: we find that sentence ordering in unlabelled texts, available during pre-training, is only weakly correlated with event ordering. Moreover, public instruction tuning mixtures contain few temporal tasks. Hence, we conclude that current LLMs lack a consistent temporal model of textual narratives. Code, datasets, and LLM outputs are available at https://github.com/yfqiu-nlp/temporal-llms.

Retrieving temporal event sequences from textual descriptions is essential for applications such as analyzing e-commerce behavior, monitoring social media activities, and tracking criminal incidents. In this paper, we introduce TPP-LLM-Embedding, a unified model for efficiently embedding and retrieving event sequences based on natural language descriptions. Built on the TPP-LLM framework, which integrates large language models with temporal point processes, our model encodes both event types and times, generating a sequence-level representation through pooling. Textual descriptions are embedded using the same architecture, ensuring a shared embedding space for both sequences and descriptions. We optimize a contrastive loss based on similarity between these embeddings, bringing matching pairs closer and separating non-matching ones. TPP-LLM-Embedding enables efficient retrieval and demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline models across diverse datasets.

Many real-world systems exhibit temporal, dynamic behaviors, which are captured as time series of complex agent interactions. To perform temporal reasoning, current methods primarily encode temporal dynamics through simple sequence-based models. However, in general these models fail to efficiently capture the full spectrum of rich dynamics in the input, since the dynamics is not uniformly distributed. In particular, relevant information might be harder to extract and computing power is wasted for processing all individual timesteps, even if they contain no significant changes or no new information. Here we propose TimeGraphs, a novel approach that characterizes dynamic interactions as a hierarchical temporal graph, diverging from traditional sequential representations. Our approach models the interactions using a compact graph-based representation, enabling adaptive reasoning across diverse time scales. Adopting a self-supervised method, TimeGraphs constructs a multi-level event hierarchy from a temporal input, which is then used to efficiently reason about the unevenly distributed dynamics. This construction process is scalable and incremental to accommodate streaming data. We evaluate TimeGraphs on multiple datasets with complex, dynamic agent interactions, including a football simulator, the Resistance game, and the MOMA human activity dataset. The results demonstrate both robustness and efficiency of TimeGraphs on a range of temporal reasoning tasks. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance and leads to a performance increase of up to 12.2% on event prediction and recognition tasks over current approaches. Our experiments further demonstrate a wide array of capabilities including zero-shot generalization, robustness in case of data sparsity, and adaptability to streaming data flow.

This paper introduces UnSeenTimeQA, a novel time-sensitive question-answering (TSQA) benchmark that diverges from traditional TSQA benchmarks by avoiding factual and web-searchable queries. We present a series of time-sensitive event scenarios decoupled from real-world factual information. It requires large language models (LLMs) to engage in genuine temporal reasoning, disassociating from the knowledge acquired during the pre-training phase. Our evaluation of six open-source LLMs (ranging from 2B to 70B in size) and three closed-source LLMs reveal that the questions from the UnSeenTimeQA present substantial challenges. This indicates the models' difficulties in handling complex temporal reasoning scenarios. Additionally, we present several analyses shedding light on the models' performance in answering time-sensitive questions.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities but lack robust temporal intelligence, struggling to integrate reasoning about the past with predictions and plausible generations of the future. Meanwhile, existing methods typically target isolated temporal skills, such as question answering about past events or basic forecasting, and exhibit poor generalization, particularly when dealing with events beyond their knowledge cutoff or requiring creative foresight. To address these limitations, we introduce Time-R1, the first framework to endow a moderate-sized (3B-parameter) LLM with comprehensive temporal abilities: understanding, prediction, and creative generation. Our approach features a novel three-stage development path; the first two constitute a reinforcement learning (RL) curriculum driven by a meticulously designed dynamic rule-based reward system. This framework progressively builds (1) foundational temporal understanding and logical event-time mappings from historical data, (2) future event prediction skills for events beyond its knowledge cutoff, and finally (3) enables remarkable generalization to creative future scenario generation without any fine-tuning. Strikingly, experiments demonstrate that Time-R1 outperforms models over 200 times larger, including the state-of-the-art 671B DeepSeek-R1, on highly challenging future event prediction and creative scenario generation benchmarks. This work provides strong evidence that thoughtfully engineered, progressive RL fine-tuning allows smaller, efficient models to achieve superior temporal performance, offering a practical and scalable path towards truly time-aware AI. To foster further research, we also release Time-Bench, a large-scale multi-task temporal reasoning dataset derived from 10 years of news data, and our series of Time-R1 checkpoints.

Reasoning about time and temporal relations is an integral aspect of human cognition, essential for perceiving the world and navigating our experiences. Though large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in many reasoning tasks, temporal reasoning remains challenging due to its intrinsic complexity. In this work, we first study an essential task of temporal reasoning -- temporal graph generation, to unveil LLMs' inherent, global reasoning capabilities. We show that this task presents great challenges even for the most powerful LLMs, such as GPT-3.5/4. We also notice a significant performance gap by small models (<10B) that lag behind LLMs by 50%. Next, we study how to close this gap with a budget constraint, e.g., not using model finetuning. We propose a new prompting technique tailored for temporal reasoning, Narrative-of-Thought (NoT), that first converts the events set to a Python class, then prompts a small model to generate a temporally grounded narrative, guiding the final generation of a temporal graph. Extensive experiments showcase the efficacy of NoT in improving various metrics. Notably, NoT attains the highest F1 on the Schema-11 evaluation set, while securing an overall F1 on par with GPT-3.5. NoT also achieves the best structural similarity across the board, even compared with GPT-3.5/4. Our code is available at https://github.com/launchnlp/NoT.

This paper introduces a large collection of time series data derived from Twitter, postprocessed using word embedding techniques, as well as specialized fine-tuned language models. This data comprises the past five years and captures changes in n-gram frequency, similarity, sentiment and topic distribution. The interface built on top of this data enables temporal analysis for detecting and characterizing shifts in meaning, including complementary information to trending metrics, such as sentiment and topic association over time. We release an online demo for easy experimentation, and we share code and the underlying aggregated data for future work. In this paper, we also discuss three case studies unlocked thanks to our platform, showcasing its potential for temporal linguistic analysis.

Temporal reasoning is pivotal for Large Language Models (LLMs) to comprehend the real world. However, existing works neglect the real-world challenges for temporal reasoning: (1) intensive temporal information, (2) fast-changing event dynamics, and (3) complex temporal dependencies in social interactions. To bridge this gap, we propose a multi-level benchmark TIME, designed for temporal reasoning in real-world scenarios. TIME consists of 38,522 QA pairs, covering 3 levels with 11 fine-grained sub-tasks. This benchmark encompasses 3 sub-datasets reflecting different real-world challenges: TIME-Wiki, TIME-News, and TIME-Dial. We conduct extensive experiments on reasoning models and non-reasoning models. And we conducted an in-depth analysis of temporal reasoning performance across diverse real-world scenarios and tasks, and summarized the impact of test-time scaling on temporal reasoning capabilities. Additionally, we release TIME-Lite, a human-annotated subset to foster future research and standardized evaluation in temporal reasoning. The code is available at https://github.com/sylvain-wei/TIME , and the dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SylvainWei/TIME .

Temporal networks have been widely used to model real-world complex systems such as financial systems and e-commerce systems. In a temporal network, the joint neighborhood of a set of nodes often provides crucial structural information useful for predicting whether they may interact at a certain time. However, recent representation learning methods for temporal networks often fail to extract such information or depend on online construction of structural features, which is time-consuming. To address the issue, this work proposes Neighborhood-Aware Temporal network model (NAT). For each node in the network, NAT abandons the commonly-used one-single-vector-based representation while adopting a novel dictionary-type neighborhood representation. Such a dictionary representation records a downsampled set of the neighboring nodes as keys, and allows fast construction of structural features for a joint neighborhood of multiple nodes. We also design a dedicated data structure termed N-cache to support parallel access and update of those dictionary representations on GPUs. NAT gets evaluated over seven real-world large-scale temporal networks. NAT not only outperforms all cutting-edge baselines by averaged 1.2% and 4.2% in transductive and inductive link prediction accuracy, respectively, but also keeps scalable by achieving a speed-up of 4.1-76.7x against the baselines that adopt joint structural features and achieves a speed-up of 1.6-4.0x against the baselines that cannot adopt those features. The link to the code: https: //github.com/Graph-COM/Neighborhood-Aware-Temporal-Network.

Recent breakthroughs in large language modeling have facilitated rigorous exploration of their application in diverse tasks related to tabular data modeling, such as prediction, tabular data synthesis, question answering, and table understanding. Each task presents unique challenges and opportunities. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive review that summarizes and compares the key techniques, metrics, datasets, models, and optimization approaches in this research domain. This survey aims to address this gap by consolidating recent progress in these areas, offering a thorough survey and taxonomy of the datasets, metrics, and methodologies utilized. It identifies strengths, limitations, unexplored territories, and gaps in the existing literature, while providing some insights for future research directions in this vital and rapidly evolving field. It also provides relevant code and datasets references. Through this comprehensive review, we hope to provide interested readers with pertinent references and insightful perspectives, empowering them with the necessary tools and knowledge to effectively navigate and address the prevailing challenges in the field.

We present the Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB), a collection of challenging and diverse benchmark datasets for realistic, reproducible, and robust evaluation of machine learning models on temporal graphs. TGB datasets are of large scale, spanning years in duration, incorporate both node and edge-level prediction tasks and cover a diverse set of domains including social, trade, transaction, and transportation networks. For both tasks, we design evaluation protocols based on realistic use-cases. We extensively benchmark each dataset and find that the performance of common models can vary drastically across datasets. In addition, on dynamic node property prediction tasks, we show that simple methods often achieve superior performance compared to existing temporal graph models. We believe that these findings open up opportunities for future research on temporal graphs. Finally, TGB provides an automated machine learning pipeline for reproducible and accessible temporal graph research, including data loading, experiment setup and performance evaluation. TGB will be maintained and updated on a regular basis and welcomes community feedback. TGB datasets, data loaders, example codes, evaluation setup, and leaderboards are publicly available at https://tgb.complexdatalab.com/.

Time is an important dimension in our physical world. Lots of facts can evolve with respect to time. For example, the U.S. President might change every four years. Therefore, it is important to consider the time dimension and empower the existing QA models to reason over time. However, the existing QA datasets contain rather few time-sensitive questions, hence not suitable for diagnosing or benchmarking the model's temporal reasoning capability. In order to promote research in this direction, we propose to construct a time-sensitive QA dataset. The dataset is constructed by 1) mining time-evolving facts from WikiData and aligning them to their corresponding Wikipedia page, 2) employing crowd workers to verify and calibrate these noisy facts, 3) generating question-answer pairs based on the annotated time-sensitive facts. Our dataset poses challenges in the aspect of both temporal understanding and temporal reasoning. We evaluate different SoTA long-document QA systems like BigBird and FiD on our dataset. The best-performing model FiD can only achieve 46\% accuracy, still far behind the human performance of 87\%. We demonstrate that these models are still lacking the ability to perform consistent temporal reasoning. Therefore, we believe that our dataset could serve as a benchmark to develop NLP models more sensitive to temporal shifts. The dataset and code are released in~https://github.com/wenhuchen/Time-Sensitive-QA.

Temporal reasoning is fundamental to human cognition and is crucial for various real-world applications. While recent advances in Large Language Models have demonstrated promising capabilities in temporal reasoning, existing benchmarks primarily rely on rule-based construction, lack contextual depth, and involve a limited range of temporal entities. To address these limitations, we introduce Chinese Time Reasoning (CTM), a benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs on temporal reasoning within the extensive scope of Chinese dynastic chronology. CTM emphasizes cross-entity relationships, pairwise temporal alignment, and contextualized and culturally-grounded reasoning, providing a comprehensive evaluation. Extensive experimental results reveal the challenges posed by CTM and highlight potential avenues for improvement.

The scientific reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) has recently attracted significant attention. Time series, as a fundamental modality in scientific data, presents unique challenges that are often overlooked in current multimodal LLMs, which either encode numerical sequences as text or convert them into images. Such approaches may be insufficient for comprehensive scientific time series understanding and generation. Existing unified time series models typically specialise in either forecasting or analysis, and their effectiveness on non-periodic, heterogeneous scientific signals remains unclear. To address these gaps, we introduce SciTS, a benchmark spanning 12 scientific domains and 43 tasks, with over 50k+ instances, both univariate and multivariate signals ranging from 10^0 to 10^7 in length and up to 10~MHz in frequency. We benchmark 17 models, including text-only LLMs, multimodal LLMs, and unified time series models, and find that general-purpose LLMs exhibit stronger generalisability than specialised time series models, while representing time series as text or images limits their performance due to excessively long sequences and loss of numerical precision, respectively. We then introduce TimeOmni, a framework that equips LLMs with the ability to understand and generate time series while remaining compatible with general-purpose LLM training. This work fills a gap in both dedicated benchmarks and modelling frameworks for scientific time series, paving the way for LLMs to understand and generate complex temporal scientific data.

Dynamic graph learning methods have recently emerged as powerful tools for modelling relational data evolving through time. However, despite extensive benchmarking efforts, it remains unclear whether current Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) effectively capture core temporal patterns such as periodicity, cause-and-effect, and long-range dependencies. In this work, we introduce the Temporal Graph Reasoning Benchmark (T-GRAB), a comprehensive set of synthetic tasks designed to systematically probe the capabilities of TGNNs to reason across time. T-GRAB provides controlled, interpretable tasks that isolate key temporal skills: counting/memorizing periodic repetitions, inferring delayed causal effects, and capturing long-range dependencies over both spatial and temporal dimensions. We evaluate 11 temporal graph learning methods on these tasks, revealing fundamental shortcomings in their ability to generalize temporal patterns. Our findings offer actionable insights into the limitations of current models, highlight challenges hidden by traditional real-world benchmarks, and motivate the development of architectures with stronger temporal reasoning abilities. The code for T-GRAB can be found at: https://github.com/alirezadizaji/T-GRAB.

Long video understanding remains a fundamental challenge for multimodal large language models (MLLMs), particularly in tasks requiring precise temporal reasoning and event localization. Existing approaches typically adopt uniform frame sampling and rely on implicit position encodings to model temporal order. However, these methods struggle with long-range dependencies, leading to critical information loss and degraded temporal comprehension. In this paper, we propose Dynamic Absolute Time Enhancement (DATE) that enhances temporal awareness in MLLMs through the Timestamp Injection Mechanism (TIM) and a semantically guided Temporal-Aware Similarity Sampling (TASS) strategy. Specifically, we interleave video frame embeddings with textual timestamp tokens to construct a continuous temporal reference system. We further reformulate the video sampling problem as a vision-language retrieval task and introduce a two-stage algorithm to ensure both semantic relevance and temporal coverage: enriching each query into a descriptive caption to better align with the vision feature, and sampling key event with a similarity-driven temporally regularized greedy strategy. Our method achieves remarkable improvements w.r.t. absolute time understanding and key event localization, resulting in state-of-the-art performance among 7B and 72B models on hour-long video benchmarks. Particularly, our 7B model even exceeds many 72B models on some benchmarks.

This work summarizes two strategies for completing time-series (TS) tasks using today's language model (LLM): LLM-for-TS, design and train a fundamental large model for TS data; TS-for-LLM, enable the pre-trained LLM to handle TS data. Considering the insufficient data accumulation, limited resources, and semantic context requirements, this work focuses on TS-for-LLM methods, where we aim to activate LLM's ability for TS data by designing a TS embedding method suitable for LLM. The proposed method is named TEST. It first tokenizes TS, builds an encoder to embed them by instance-wise, feature-wise, and text-prototype-aligned contrast, and then creates prompts to make LLM more open to embeddings, and finally implements TS tasks. Experiments are carried out on TS classification and forecasting tasks using 8 LLMs with different structures and sizes. Although its results cannot significantly outperform the current SOTA models customized for TS tasks, by treating LLM as the pattern machine, it can endow LLM's ability to process TS data without compromising the language ability. This paper is intended to serve as a foundational work that will inspire further research.

Tabular datasets are ubiquitous in data science applications. Given their importance, it seems natural to apply state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms in order to fully unlock their potential. Here we propose neural network models that represent tabular time series that can optionally leverage their hierarchical structure. This results in two architectures for tabular time series: one for learning representations that is analogous to BERT and can be pre-trained end-to-end and used in downstream tasks, and one that is akin to GPT and can be used for generation of realistic synthetic tabular sequences. We demonstrate our models on two datasets: a synthetic credit card transaction dataset, where the learned representations are used for fraud detection and synthetic data generation, and on a real pollution dataset, where the learned encodings are used to predict atmospheric pollutant concentrations. Code and data are available at https://github.com/IBM/TabFormer.

Temporal question answering is an established method for evaluating temporal reasoning in large language models. Expected answers are often numeric (e.g., dates or durations), yet model responses are evaluated like regular text with exact match (EM), unable to distinguish small from large errors. In this investigative work, we frame temporal question answering as a numerical estimation task to assess the shortcomings of EM. We introduce TempAnswerQA, a benchmark distilled from Test of Time and TempTabQA, where all questions require a numerical, temporal answer, allowing us to evaluate models beyond EM. We use the forecasting metrics symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). With sMAPE, we find that error size and EM are decoupled. Models with low EM still have low sMAPE (both ~20%), and some models have high sMAPE despite high EM. Scaling errors by the deviation of the ground truth data with MASE reshuffles model rankings compared to EM, revealing gaps in models' understanding of temporal domain knowledge, especially when trained with synthetic data. Lastly, the models' most frequent error is to deviate by only pm1 from the ground truth. sMAPE and MASE, unlike EM, adequately weight these errors. Our findings underscore the need for specialised metrics for temporal QA tasks. Code and data are available on https://github.com/aauss/temporal-answer-qa.

As deep learning technology advances and more urban spatial-temporal data accumulates, an increasing number of deep learning models are being proposed to solve urban spatial-temporal prediction problems. However, there are limitations in the existing field, including open-source data being in various formats and difficult to use, few papers making their code and data openly available, and open-source models often using different frameworks and platforms, making comparisons challenging. A standardized framework is urgently needed to implement and evaluate these methods. To address these issues, we propose LibCity, an open-source library that offers researchers a credible experimental tool and a convenient development framework. In this library, we have reproduced 65 spatial-temporal prediction models and collected 55 spatial-temporal datasets, allowing researchers to conduct comprehensive experiments conveniently. By enabling fair model comparisons, designing a unified data storage format, and simplifying the process of developing new models, LibCity is poised to make significant contributions to the spatial-temporal prediction field.

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

While large language models (LLMs) show great potential in temporal reasoning, most existing work focuses heavily on enhancing performance, often neglecting the explainable reasoning processes underlying the results. To address this gap, we introduce a comprehensive benchmark covering a wide range of temporal granularities, designed to systematically evaluate LLMs' capabilities in explainable temporal reasoning. Furthermore, our findings reveal that LLMs struggle to deliver convincing explanations when relying solely on textual information. To address challenge, we propose GETER, a novel structure-aware generative framework that integrates Graph structures with text for Explainable TEmporal Reasoning. Specifically, we first leverage temporal knowledge graphs to develop a temporal encoder that captures structural information for the query. Subsequently, we introduce a structure-text prefix adapter to map graph structure features into the text embedding space. Finally, LLMs generate explanation text by seamlessly integrating the soft graph token with instruction-tuning prompt tokens. Experimental results indicate that GETER achieves state-of-the-art performance while also demonstrating its effectiveness as well as strong generalization capabilities. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/carryTatum/GETER.

Understanding time is crucial for understanding events expressed in natural language. Because people rarely say the obvious, it is often necessary to have commonsense knowledge about various temporal aspects of events, such as duration, frequency, and temporal order. However, this important problem has so far received limited attention. This paper systematically studies this temporal commonsense problem. Specifically, we define five classes of temporal commonsense, and use crowdsourcing to develop a new dataset, MCTACO, that serves as a test set for this task. We find that the best current methods used on MCTACO are still far behind human performance, by about 20%, and discuss several directions for improvement. We hope that the new dataset and our study here can foster more future research on this topic.

In this paper, we investigate the distillation of time series reasoning capabilities into small, instruction-tuned language models as a step toward building interpretable time series foundation models. Leveraging a synthetic dataset of mean-reverting time series with systematically varied trends and noise levels, we generate natural language annotations using a large multimodal model and use these to supervise the fine-tuning of compact Qwen models. We introduce evaluation metrics that assess the quality of the distilled reasoning - focusing on trend direction, noise intensity, and extremum localization - and show that the post-trained models acquire meaningful interpretive capabilities. Our results highlight the feasibility of compressing time series understanding into lightweight, language-capable models suitable for on-device or privacy-sensitive deployment. This work contributes a concrete foundation toward developing small, interpretable models that explain temporal patterns in natural language.

Time series data are foundational in finance, healthcare, and energy domains. However, most existing methods and datasets remain focused on a narrow spectrum of tasks, such as forecasting or anomaly detection. To bridge this gap, we introduce Time Series Multi-Task Question Answering (Time-MQA), a unified framework that enables natural language queries across multiple time series tasks - numerical analytical tasks and open-ended question answering with reasoning. Central to Time-MQA is the TSQA dataset, a large-scale dataset containing sim200k question-answer pairs derived from diverse time series spanning environment, traffic, etc. This comprehensive resource covers various time series lengths and promotes robust model development. We further demonstrate how continually pre-training large language models (Mistral 7B, Llama-3 8B, and Qwen-2.5 7B) on the TSQA dataset enhanced time series reasoning capabilities, moving beyond mere numeric tasks and enabling more advanced and intuitive interactions with temporal data. The complete TSQA dataset, models, executable codes, user study questionnaires for evaluation, and results have all been open-sourced.

The rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) holds promise for reforming the methodology of spatio-temporal data mining. However, current works for evaluating the spatio-temporal understanding capability of LLMs are somewhat limited and biased. These works either fail to incorporate the latest language models or only focus on assessing the memorized spatio-temporal knowledge. To address this gap, this paper dissects LLMs' capability of spatio-temporal data into four distinct dimensions: knowledge comprehension, spatio-temporal reasoning, accurate computation, and downstream applications. We curate several natural language question-answer tasks for each category and build the benchmark dataset, namely STBench, containing 13 distinct tasks and over 60,000 QA pairs. Moreover, we have assessed the capabilities of 13 LLMs, such as GPT-4o, Gemma and Mistral. Experimental results reveal that existing LLMs show remarkable performance on knowledge comprehension and spatio-temporal reasoning tasks, with potential for further enhancement on other tasks through in-context learning, chain-of-though prompting, and fine-tuning. The code and datasets of STBench are released on https://github.com/LwbXc/STBench.

Interdisciplinary scientific breakthroughs mostly emerge unexpectedly, and forecasting the formation of novel research fields remains a major challenge. We introduce FOS (Future Of Science), a comprehensive time-aware graph-based benchmark that reconstructs annual co-occurrence graphs of 65,027 research sub-fields (spanning 19 general domains) over the period 1827-2024. In these graphs, edges denote the co-occurrence of two fields in a single publication and are timestamped with the corresponding publication year. Nodes are enriched with semantic embeddings, and edges are characterized by temporal and topological descriptors. We formulate the prediction of new field-pair linkages as a temporal link-prediction task, emphasizing the "first-time" connections that signify pioneering interdisciplinary directions. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art temporal graph architectures under multiple negative-sampling regimes and show that (i) embedding long-form textual descriptions of fields significantly boosts prediction accuracy, and (ii) distinct model classes excel under different evaluation settings. Case analyses show that top-ranked link predictions on FOS align with field pairings that emerge in subsequent years of academic publications. We publicly release FOS, along with its temporal data splits and evaluation code, to establish a reproducible benchmark for advancing research in predicting scientific frontiers.

We build upon time-series classification by leveraging the capabilities of Vision Language Models (VLMs). We find that VLMs produce competitive results after two or less epochs of fine-tuning. We develop a novel approach that incorporates graphical data representations as images in conjunction with numerical data. This approach is rooted in the hypothesis that graphical representations can provide additional contextual information that numerical data alone may not capture. Additionally, providing a graphical representation can circumvent issues such as limited context length faced by LLMs. To further advance this work, we implemented a scalable end-to-end pipeline for training on different scenarios, allowing us to isolate the most effective strategies for transferring learning capabilities from LLMs to Time Series Classification (TSC) tasks. Our approach works with univariate and multivariate time-series data. In addition, we conduct extensive and practical experiments to show how this approach works for time-series classification and generative labels.

Multi-hop logical reasoning over knowledge graph (KG) plays a fundamental role in many artificial intelligence tasks. Recent complex query embedding (CQE) methods for reasoning focus on static KGs, while temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) have not been fully explored. Reasoning over TKGs has two challenges: 1. The query should answer entities or timestamps; 2. The operators should consider both set logic on entity set and temporal logic on timestamp set. To bridge this gap, we define the multi-hop logical reasoning problem on TKGs. With generated three datasets, we propose the first temporal CQE named Temporal Feature-Logic Embedding framework (TFLEX) to answer the temporal complex queries. We utilize vector logic to compute the logic part of Temporal Feature-Logic embeddings, thus naturally modeling all First-Order Logic (FOL) operations on entity set. In addition, our framework extends vector logic on timestamp set to cope with three extra temporal operators (After, Before and Between). Experiments on numerous query patterns demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Large language models (LLMs) are often trained on extensive, temporally indiscriminate text corpora, reflecting the lack of datasets with temporal metadata. This approach is not aligned with the evolving nature of language. Conventional methods for creating temporally adapted language models often depend on further pre-training static models on time-specific data. This paper presents a new approach: a series of point-in-time LLMs called Time Machine GPT (TiMaGPT), specifically designed to be nonprognosticative. This ensures they remain uninformed about future factual information and linguistic changes. This strategy is beneficial for understanding language evolution and is of critical importance when applying models in dynamic contexts, such as time-series forecasting, where foresight of future information can prove problematic. We provide access to both the models and training datasets.

Time-series analysis is critical for a wide range of fields such as healthcare, finance, transportation, and energy, among many others. The practical applications often involve analyzing time-series data alongside contextual information in the form of natural language to support informed decisions. However, current time-series models are limited in their ability to perform reasoning that involves both time-series and their textual content. In this work, we address this gap by introducing Chat-TS, a large language model (LLM) based framework, designed to support reasoning over time series and textual data. Unlike traditional models, Chat-TS integrates time-series tokens into LLMs' vocabulary, enhancing its reasoning ability over both modalities without compromising the core natural language capabilities, enabling practical analysis and reasoning across modalities. To support learning and evaluation in this setup, we contribute new datasets: the TS Instruct Training Dataset which pairs diverse time-series data with relevant text instructions and responses for instruction tuning, the TS Instruct Question and Answer (QA) Gold Dataset which provides multiple-choice questions designed to evaluate multimodal reasoning, and a TS Instruct Quantitative Probing Set which contains a small subset of the TS Instruct QA tasks alongside math and decision-making questions for LLM evaluation. We designed a training strategy to preserve the inherent reasoning capabilities of LLMs while augmenting them for time-series reasoning. Experiments show that Chat-TS achieves state-of-the-art performance in multi-modal reasoning tasks by maintaining strong natural language proficiency while improving time-series reasoning. ~To ensure replicability and facilitate future research, all models, datasets, and code will be available at [\texttt{Github-URL].}

Who is the US President? The answer changes depending on when the question is asked. While large language models (LLMs) are evaluated on various reasoning tasks, they often miss a crucial dimension: time. In real-world scenarios, the correctness of answers is frequently tied to temporal context. In this paper, we introduce a novel dataset designed to rigorously test LLMs' ability to handle time-sensitive facts. Our benchmark offers a systematic way to measure how well LLMs align their knowledge with the correct time context, filling a key gap in current evaluation methods and offering a valuable tool for improving real-world applicability in future models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated a remarkable ability to model time series data. These capabilities can be partly explained if LLMs understand basic time series concepts. However, our knowledge of what these models understand about time series data remains relatively limited. To address this gap, we introduce TimeSeriesExam, a configurable and scalable multiple-choice question exam designed to assess LLMs across five core time series understanding categories: pattern recognition, noise understanding, similarity analysis, anomaly detection, and causality analysis. TimeSeriesExam comprises of over 700 questions, procedurally generated using 104 carefully curated templates and iteratively refined to balance difficulty and their ability to discriminate good from bad models. We test 7 state-of-the-art LLMs on the TimeSeriesExam and provide the first comprehensive evaluation of their time series understanding abilities. Our results suggest that closed-source models such as GPT-4 and Gemini understand simple time series concepts significantly better than their open-source counterparts, while all models struggle with complex concepts such as causality analysis. We believe that the ability to programatically generate questions is fundamental to assessing and improving LLM's ability to understand and reason about time series data.

Understanding time series data is crucial for multiple real-world applications. While large language models (LLMs) show promise in time series tasks, current approaches often rely on numerical data alone, overlooking the multimodal nature of time-dependent information, such as textual descriptions, visual data, and audio signals. Moreover, these methods underutilize LLMs' reasoning capabilities, limiting the analysis to surface-level interpretations instead of deeper temporal and multimodal reasoning. In this position paper, we argue that multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) can enable more powerful and flexible reasoning for time series analysis, enhancing decision-making and real-world applications. We call on researchers and practitioners to leverage this potential by developing strategies that prioritize trust, interpretability, and robust reasoning in MLLMs. Lastly, we highlight key research directions, including novel reasoning paradigms, architectural innovations, and domain-specific applications, to advance time series reasoning with MLLMs.

Time series analysis is crucial in diverse scenarios. Beyond forecasting, considerable real-world tasks are categorized into classification, imputation, and anomaly detection, underscoring different capabilities termed time series understanding in this paper. While GPT-style models have been positioned as foundation models for time series forecasting, the BERT-style architecture, which has made significant advances in natural language understanding, has not been fully unlocked for time series understanding, possibly attributed to the undesirable dropout of essential elements of BERT. In this paper, inspired by the shared multi-granularity structure between multivariate time series and multisentence documents, we design TimesBERT to learn generic representations of time series including temporal patterns and variate-centric characteristics. In addition to a natural adaptation of masked modeling, we propose a parallel task of functional token prediction to embody vital multi-granularity structures. Our model is pre-trained on 260 billion time points across diverse domains. Leveraging multi-granularity representations, TimesBERT achieves state-of-the-art performance across four typical downstream understanding tasks, outperforming task-specific models and language pre-trained backbones, positioning it as a versatile foundation model for time series understanding.

One of the limitations of large language models is that they do not have access to up-to-date, proprietary or personal data. As a result, there are multiple efforts to extend language models with techniques for accessing external data. In that sense, LLMs share the vision of data integration systems whose goal is to provide seamless access to a large collection of heterogeneous data sources. While the details and the techniques of LLMs differ greatly from those of data integration, this paper shows that some of the lessons learned from research on data integration can elucidate the research path we are conducting today on language models.

Event sequences (ESs) arise in many practical domains including finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. In the context of machine learning, event sequences can be seen as a special type of tabular data with annotated timestamps. Despite the importance of ESs modeling and analysis, little effort was made in adapting large language models (LLMs) to the ESs domain. In this paper, we highlight the common difficulties of ESs processing and propose a novel solution capable of solving multiple downstream tasks with little or no finetuning. In particular, we solve the problem of working with long sequences and improve time and numeric features processing. The resulting method, called ESQA, effectively utilizes the power of LLMs and, according to extensive experiments, achieves state-of-the-art results in the ESs domain.