Daily Papers

SemEval-2024 Task 8 is focused on multigenerator, multidomain, and multilingual black-box machine-generated text detection. Such a detection is important for preventing a potential misuse of large language models (LLMs), the newest of which are very capable in generating multilingual human-like texts. We have coped with this task in multiple ways, utilizing language identification and parameter-efficient fine-tuning of smaller LLMs for text classification. We have further used the per-language classification-threshold calibration to uniquely combine fine-tuned models predictions with statistical detection metrics to improve generalization of the system detection performance. Our submitted method achieved competitive results, ranking at the fourth place, just under 1 percentage point behind the winner.

Class imbalance in binary classification tasks remains a significant challenge in machine learning, often resulting in poor performance on minority classes. This study comprehensively evaluates three widely-used strategies for handling class imbalance: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), Class Weights tuning, and Decision Threshold Calibration. We compare these methods against a baseline scenario of no-intervention across 15 diverse machine learning models and 30 datasets from various domains, conducting a total of 9,000 experiments. Performance was primarily assessed using the F1-score, although our study also tracked results on additional 9 metrics including F2-score, precision, recall, Brier-score, PR-AUC, and AUC. Our results indicate that all three strategies generally outperform the baseline, with Decision Threshold Calibration emerging as the most consistently effective technique. However, we observed substantial variability in the best-performing method across datasets, highlighting the importance of testing multiple approaches for specific problems. This study provides valuable insights for practitioners dealing with imbalanced datasets and emphasizes the need for dataset-specific analysis in evaluating class imbalance handling techniques.

Multi-turn-to-single-turn (M2S) compresses iterative red-teaming into one structured prompt, but prior work relied on a handful of manually written templates. We present X-Teaming Evolutionary M2S, an automated framework that discovers and optimizes M2S templates through language-model-guided evolution. The system pairs smart sampling from 12 sources with an LLM-as-judge inspired by StrongREJECT and records fully auditable logs. Maintaining selection pressure by setting the success threshold to theta = 0.70, we obtain five evolutionary generations, two new template families, and 44.8% overall success (103/230) on GPT-4.1. A balanced cross-model panel of 2,500 trials (judge fixed) shows that structural gains transfer but vary by target; two models score zero at the same threshold. We also find a positive coupling between prompt length and score, motivating length-aware judging. Our results demonstrate that structure-level search is a reproducible route to stronger single-turn probes and underscore the importance of threshold calibration and cross-model evaluation. Code, configurations, and artifacts are available at https://github.com/hyunjun1121/M2S-x-teaming.

This paper presents AI Wizards' participation in the CLEF 2025 CheckThat! Lab Task 1: Subjectivity Detection in News Articles, classifying sentences as subjective/objective in monolingual, multilingual, and zero-shot settings. Training/development datasets were provided for Arabic, German, English, Italian, and Bulgarian; final evaluation included additional unseen languages (e.g., Greek, Romanian, Polish, Ukrainian) to assess generalization. Our primary strategy enhanced transformer-based classifiers by integrating sentiment scores, derived from an auxiliary model, with sentence representations, aiming to improve upon standard fine-tuning. We explored this sentiment-augmented architecture with mDeBERTaV3-base, ModernBERT-base (English), and Llama3.2-1B. To address class imbalance, prevalent across languages, we employed decision threshold calibration optimized on the development set. Our experiments show sentiment feature integration significantly boosts performance, especially subjective F1 score. This framework led to high rankings, notably 1st for Greek (Macro F1 = 0.51).

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked growing interest in their application to time series analysis tasks. However, their ability to perform complex reasoning over temporal data in real-world application domains remains underexplored. To move toward this goal, a first step is to establish a rigorous benchmark dataset for evaluation. In this work, we introduce the TSAIA Benchmark, a first attempt to evaluate LLMs as time-series AI assistants. To ensure both scientific rigor and practical relevance, we surveyed over 20 academic publications and identified 33 real-world task formulations. The benchmark encompasses a broad spectrum of challenges, ranging from constraint-aware forecasting to anomaly detection with threshold calibration: tasks that require compositional reasoning and multi-step time series analysis. The question generator is designed to be dynamic and extensible, supporting continuous expansion as new datasets or task types are introduced. Given the heterogeneous nature of the tasks, we adopt task-specific success criteria and tailored inference-quality metrics to ensure meaningful evaluation for each task. We apply this benchmark to assess eight state-of-the-art LLMs under a unified evaluation protocol. Our analysis reveals limitations in current models' ability to assemble complex time series analysis workflows, underscoring the need for specialized methodologies for domain-specific adaptation. Our benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TSAIA, and the code is available at https://github.com/USC-Melady/TSAIA.

The increasing deployment of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) raises safety concerns under potential malicious inputs. However, existing multimodal safety evaluations primarily focus on model vulnerabilities exposed by static image inputs, ignoring the temporal dynamics of video that may induce distinct safety risks. To bridge this gap, we introduce Video-SafetyBench, the first comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate the safety of LVLMs under video-text attacks. It comprises 2,264 video-text pairs spanning 48 fine-grained unsafe categories, each pairing a synthesized video with either a harmful query, which contains explicit malice, or a benign query, which appears harmless but triggers harmful behavior when interpreted alongside the video. To generate semantically accurate videos for safety evaluation, we design a controllable pipeline that decomposes video semantics into subject images (what is shown) and motion text (how it moves), which jointly guide the synthesis of query-relevant videos. To effectively evaluate uncertain or borderline harmful outputs, we propose RJScore, a novel LLM-based metric that incorporates the confidence of judge models and human-aligned decision threshold calibration. Extensive experiments show that benign-query video composition achieves average attack success rates of 67.2%, revealing consistent vulnerabilities to video-induced attacks. We believe Video-SafetyBench will catalyze future research into video-based safety evaluation and defense strategies.

Online toxic language causes real harm, especially in regions with limited moderation tools. In this study, we evaluate how large language models handle toxic comments in Serbian, Croatian, and Bosnian, languages with limited labeled data. We built and manually labeled a dataset of 4,500 YouTube and TikTok comments drawn from videos across diverse categories, including music, politics, sports, modeling, influencer content, discussions of sexism, and general topics. Four models (GPT-3.5 Turbo, GPT-4.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Claude 3 Opus) were tested in two modes: zero-shot and context-augmented. We measured precision, recall, F1 score, accuracy and false positive rates. Including a short context snippet raised recall by about 0.12 on average and improved F1 score by up to 0.10, though it sometimes increased false positives. The best balance came from Gemini in context-augmented mode, reaching an F1 score of 0.82 and accuracy of 0.82, while zero-shot GPT-4.1 led on precision and had the lowest false alarms. We show how adding minimal context can improve toxic language detection in low-resource settings and suggest practical strategies such as improved prompt design and threshold calibration. These results show that prompt design alone can yield meaningful gains in toxicity detection for underserved Balkan language communities.

LLM-as-a-Judge (LLMaaJ) now underpins scalable evaluation, yet we lack a decisive test of a judge's qualification: can it recover a conversation's latent objective and know when that inference is trustworthy? LLMs degrade under irrelevant or long context; multi-turn jailbreaks further hide goals across turns. We introduce ObjexMT, a benchmark for objective extraction and metacognition. Given a multi-turn transcript, a model must return a one-sentence base objective and a self-reported confidence. Accuracy is computed via LLM-judge semantic similarity to gold objectives, converted to binary correctness by a single human-aligned threshold calibrated once on N = 100 items (tau^*=0.61). Metacognition is evaluated with ECE, Brier, Wrong-at-High-Conf, and risk-coverage. Across gpt-4.1, claude-sonnet-4, and Qwen3-235B-A22B-FP8 on SafeMTData_Attack600, SafeMTData_1K, MHJ, and CoSafe, claude-sonnet-4 attains the best objective-extraction accuracy (0.515) and calibration (ECE 0.296; Brier 0.324); gpt-4.1 and Qwen3-235B-A22B-FP8 tie at 0.441 but are overconfident (mean confidence approx0.88 vs. accuracy approx0.44; Wrong-at-0.90 approx48-52%). Performance varies by dataset (approx0.167-0.865). ObjexMT thus supplies an actionable test for LLM judges: when objectives are not explicit, judges often misinfer them with high confidence. We recommend exposing objectives when feasible and gating decisions by confidence otherwise. Code and data at https://github.com/hyunjun1121/ObjexMT_dataset.

Aiming to improve the checkerboard corner detection robustness against the images with poor quality, such as lens distortion, extreme poses, and noise, we propose a novel detection algorithm which can maintain high accuracy on inputs under multiply scenarios without any prior knowledge of the checkerboard pattern. This whole algorithm includes a checkerboard corner detection network and some post-processing techniques. The network model is a fully convolutional network with improvements of loss function and learning rate, which can deal with the images of arbitrary size and produce correspondingly-sized output with a corner score on each pixel by efficient inference and learning. Besides, in order to remove the false positives, we employ three post-processing techniques including threshold related to maximum response, non-maximum suppression, and clustering. Evaluations on two different datasets show its superior robustness, accuracy and wide applicability in quantitative comparisons with the state-of-the-art methods, like MATE, ChESS, ROCHADE and OCamCalib.

We present CadLLM, a training-free method to accelerate the inference throughput of diffusion-based LLMs (dLLMs). We first investigate the dynamic nature of token unmasking confidence across blocks and steps. Based on this observation, we present a lightweight adaptive approach that controls the generation block size, step size, and threshold based on the average confidence of unmasked tokens. We further reduce softmax overhead by dynamically leveraging a subset of the vocabulary to regulate sampling breadth. CadLLM is a plug-and-play, model-agnostic method compatible with KV-cache-based dLLMs. Extensive experiments on four popular tasks demonstrate that CadLLM yields up to 2.28x throughput improvement over the state-of-the-art baseline with competitive accuracy.

Adaptive retrieval-augmented generation (ARAG) aims to dynamically determine the necessity of retrieval for queries instead of retrieving indiscriminately to enhance the efficiency and relevance of the sourced information. However, previous works largely overlook the evaluation of ARAG approaches, leading to their effectiveness being understudied. This work presents a benchmark, RetrievalQA, comprising 1,271 short-form questions covering new world and long-tail knowledge. The knowledge necessary to answer the questions is absent from LLMs; therefore, external information must be retrieved to answer correctly. This makes RetrievalQA a suitable testbed to evaluate existing ARAG methods. We observe that calibration-based methods heavily rely on threshold tuning, while vanilla prompting is inadequate for guiding LLMs to make reliable retrieval decisions. Based on our findings, we propose Time-Aware Adaptive Retrieval (TA-ARE), a simple yet effective method that helps LLMs assess the necessity of retrieval without calibration or additional training. The dataset and code will be available at https://github.com/hyintell/RetrievalQA

Dual-encoder retrievers depend on the principle that relevant documents should score higher than irrelevant ones for a given query. Yet the dominant Noise Contrastive Estimation (NCE) objective, which underpins Contrastive Loss, optimizes a softened ranking surrogate that we rigorously prove is fundamentally oblivious to score separation quality and unrelated to AUC. This mismatch leads to poor calibration and suboptimal performance in downstream tasks like retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). To address this fundamental limitation, we introduce the MW loss, a new training objective that maximizes the Mann-Whitney U statistic, which is mathematically equivalent to the Area under the ROC Curve (AUC). MW loss encourages each positive-negative pair to be correctly ranked by minimizing binary cross entropy over score differences. We provide theoretical guarantees that MW loss directly upper-bounds the AoC, better aligning optimization with retrieval goals. We further promote ROC curves and AUC as natural threshold free diagnostics for evaluating retriever calibration and ranking quality. Empirically, retrievers trained with MW loss consistently outperform contrastive counterparts in AUC and standard retrieval metrics. Our experiments show that MW loss is an empirically superior alternative to Contrastive Loss, yielding better-calibrated and more discriminative retrievers for high-stakes applications like RAG.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

Whenever we use devices to take measurements, calibration is indispensable. While the purpose of calibration is to reduce bias and uncertainty in the measurements, it can be quite difficult, expensive, and sometimes even impossible to implement. We study a challenging problem called self-calibration, i.e., the task of designing an algorithm for devices so that the algorithm is able to perform calibration automatically. More precisely, we consider the setup y = A(d) x + epsilon where only partial information about the sensing matrix A(d) is known and where A(d) linearly depends on d. The goal is to estimate the calibration parameter d (resolve the uncertainty in the sensing process) and the signal/object of interests x simultaneously. For three different models of practical relevance, we show how such a bilinear inverse problem, including blind deconvolution as an important example, can be solved via a simple linear least squares approach. As a consequence, the proposed algorithms are numerically extremely efficient, thus potentially allowing for real-time deployment. We also present a variation of the least squares approach, which leads to a~spectral method, where the solution to the bilinear inverse problem can be found by computing the singular vector associated with the smallest singular value of a certain matrix derived from the bilinear system. Explicit theoretical guarantees and stability theory are derived for both techniques; and the number of sampling complexity is nearly optimal (up to a poly-log factor). Applications in imaging sciences and signal processing are discussed and numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions made by large language models (LLMs) in binary text classification tasks remains a challenge. Calibration, in the context of LLMs, refers to the alignment between the model's predicted probabilities and the actual correctness of its predictions. A well-calibrated model should produce probabilities that accurately reflect the likelihood of its predictions being correct. We propose a novel approach that utilizes the inductive Venn--Abers predictor (IVAP) to calibrate the probabilities associated with the output tokens corresponding to the binary labels. Our experiments on the BoolQ dataset using the Llama 2 model demonstrate that IVAP consistently outperforms the commonly used temperature scaling method for various label token choices, achieving well-calibrated probabilities while maintaining high predictive quality. Our findings contribute to the understanding of calibration techniques for LLMs and provide a practical solution for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates in binary question answering tasks, enhancing the interpretability and trustworthiness of LLM predictions.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great capabilities in solving a wide range of tasks in a resource-efficient manner through prompting, which does not require task-specific training, but suffers from performance fluctuation when there are multiple prompt candidates. Previous works have introduced gradient-free probability-based prompt selection methods that aim to choose the optimal prompt among the candidates for a given task but fail to provide a comprehensive and fair comparison between each other. In this paper, we propose a unified framework to interpret and evaluate the existing probability-based prompt selection methods by performing extensive experiments on 13 common NLP tasks. We find that all existing methods can be unified into some variant of the method that maximizes the mutual information between the input and the corresponding model output (denoted as MI). Using the finding, we develop several variants of MI and increases the effectiveness of the best prompt selection method from 87.79% to 94.98%, measured as the ratio of the performance of the selected prompt to that of the optimal oracle prompt. Furthermore, we propose a novel calibration method called Calibration by Marginalization (CBM) that is orthogonal to existing methods and helps increase the prompt selection effectiveness of the best method by 99.44%. The code and datasets used in our work will be released at https://github.com/soheeyang/unified-prompt-selection.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) enhances the efficiency of Large Language Models (LLMs) by enabling faster operation and compatibility with more accessible hardware through reduced memory usage, at the cost of small performance drops. We explore the role of calibration sets in PTQ, specifically their effect on hidden activations in various notable open-source LLMs. Calibration sets are crucial for evaluating activation magnitudes and identifying outliers, which can distort the quantization range and negatively impact performance. Our analysis reveals a marked contrast in quantization effectiveness across models. The older OPT model, upon which much of the quantization literature is based, shows significant performance deterioration and high susceptibility to outliers with varying calibration sets. In contrast, newer models like Llama-2 7B, Llama-3 8B, Command-R 35B, and Mistral 7B demonstrate strong robustness, with Mistral 7B showing near-immunity to outliers and stable activations. These findings suggest a shift in PTQ strategies might be needed. As advancements in pre-training methods reduce the relevance of outliers, there is an emerging need to reassess the fundamentals of current quantization literature. The emphasis should pivot towards optimizing inference speed, rather than primarily focusing on outlier preservation, to align with the evolving characteristics of state-of-the-art LLMs.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Neural network calibration is an essential task in deep learning to ensure consistency between the confidence of model prediction and the true correctness likelihood. In this paper, we propose a new post-processing calibration method called Neural Clamping, which employs a simple joint input-output transformation on a pre-trained classifier via a learnable universal input perturbation and an output temperature scaling parameter. Moreover, we provide theoretical explanations on why Neural Clamping is provably better than temperature scaling. Evaluated on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet image recognition datasets and a variety of deep neural network models, our empirical results show that Neural Clamping significantly outperforms state-of-the-art post-processing calibration methods.

In recent years, multiple notions of algorithmic fairness have arisen. One such notion is individual fairness (IF), which requires that individuals who are similar receive similar treatment. In parallel, matrix estimation (ME) has emerged as a natural paradigm for handling noisy data with missing values. In this work, we connect the two concepts. We show that pre-processing data using ME can improve an algorithm's IF without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we show that using a popular ME method known as singular value thresholding (SVT) to pre-process the data provides a strong IF guarantee under appropriate conditions. We then show that, under analogous conditions, SVT pre-processing also yields estimates that are consistent and approximately minimax optimal. As such, the ME pre-processing step does not, under the stated conditions, increase the prediction error of the base algorithm, i.e., does not impose a fairness-performance trade-off. We verify these results on synthetic and real data.

Existing losses used in deep metric learning (DML) for image retrieval often lead to highly non-uniform intra-class and inter-class representation structures across test classes and data distributions. When combined with the common practice of using a fixed threshold to declare a match, this gives rise to significant performance variations in terms of false accept rate (FAR) and false reject rate (FRR) across test classes and data distributions. We define this issue in DML as threshold inconsistency. In real-world applications, such inconsistency often complicates the threshold selection process when deploying commercial image retrieval systems. To measure this inconsistency, we propose a novel variance-based metric called Operating-Point-Inconsistency-Score (OPIS) that quantifies the variance in the operating characteristics across classes. Using the OPIS metric, we find that achieving high accuracy levels in a DML model does not automatically guarantee threshold consistency. In fact, our investigation reveals a Pareto frontier in the high-accuracy regime, where existing methods to improve accuracy often lead to degradation in threshold consistency. To address this trade-off, we introduce the Threshold-Consistent Margin (TCM) loss, a simple yet effective regularization technique that promotes uniformity in representation structures across classes by selectively penalizing hard sample pairs. Extensive experiments demonstrate TCM's effectiveness in enhancing threshold consistency while preserving accuracy, simplifying the threshold selection process in practical DML settings.

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

We present AnyCalib, a method for calibrating the intrinsic parameters of a camera from a single in-the-wild image, that is agnostic to the camera model. Current methods are predominantly tailored to specific camera models and/or require extrinsic cues, such as the direction of gravity, to be visible in the image. In contrast, we argue that the perspective and distortion cues inherent in images are sufficient for model-agnostic camera calibration. To demonstrate this, we frame the calibration process as the regression of the rays corresponding to each pixel. We show, for the first time, that this intermediate representation allows for a closed-form recovery of the intrinsics for a wide range of camera models, including but not limited to: pinhole, Brown-Conrady and Kannala-Brandt. Our approach also applies to edited -- cropped and stretched -- images. Experimentally, we demonstrate that AnyCalib consistently outperforms alternative methods, including 3D foundation models, despite being trained on orders of magnitude less data. Code is available at https://github.com/javrtg/AnyCalib.

Machine learning models are widely used, but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the output or not. For example, outputs can be associated with a confidence measure; if this confidence measure is strongly associated with likelihood of correctness, then the model is said to be well-calibrated. A well-calibrated confidence measure can serve as a basis for rational, graduated decision-making on how much review and care is needed when using generated code. Calibration has so far been studied in mostly non-generative (e.g. classification) settings, especially in software engineering. However, generated code can quite often be wrong: Given generated code, developers must decide whether to use directly, use after varying intensity of careful review, or discard model-generated code. Thus, calibration is vital in generative settings. We make several contributions. We develop a framework for evaluating the calibration of code-generating models. We consider several tasks, correctness criteria, datasets, and approaches, and find that, by and large, generative code models we test are not well-calibrated out of the box. We then show how calibration can be improved using standard methods, such as Platt scaling. Since Platt scaling relies on the prior availability of correctness data, we evaluate the applicability and generalizability of Platt scaling in software engineering, discuss settings where it has good potential for practical use, and settings where it does not. Our contributions will lead to better-calibrated decision-making in the current use of code generated by language models, and offers a framework for future research to further improve calibration methods for generative models in software engineering.

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess prediction confidence and enables abstention when uncertainty is high. Conformal prediction (CP), a leading UQ method, provides statistical guarantees but relies on static thresholds, which fail to adapt to task complexity and evolving data distributions, leading to suboptimal trade-offs in accuracy, coverage, and informativeness. To address this, we propose learnable conformal abstention, integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with CP to optimize abstention thresholds dynamically. By treating CP thresholds as adaptive actions, our approach balances multiple objectives, minimizing prediction set size while maintaining reliable coverage. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLM/VLM benchmarks show our method outperforms Least Ambiguous Classifiers (LAC) and Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS), improving accuracy by up to 3.2%, boosting AUROC for hallucination detection by 22.19%, enhancing uncertainty-guided selective generation (AUARC) by 21.17%, and reducing calibration error by 70%-85%. These improvements hold across multiple models and datasets while consistently meeting the 90% coverage target, establishing our approach as a more effective and flexible solution for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications. The code is available at: {https://github.com/sinatayebati/vlm-uncertainty}.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes error, and epistemic uncertainty via the size of the set. In this paper, we extend the notion of calibration, which is commonly used to evaluate the validity of the aleatoric uncertainty representation of a single probabilistic classifier, to assess the validity of an epistemic uncertainty representation obtained by sets of probabilistic classifiers. Broadly speaking, we call a set of probabilistic classifiers calibrated if one can find a calibrated convex combination of these classifiers. To evaluate this notion of calibration, we propose a novel nonparametric calibration test that generalizes an existing test for single probabilistic classifiers to the case of sets of probabilistic classifiers. Making use of this test, we empirically show that ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.

Summarization models often generate text that is poorly calibrated to quality metrics because they are trained to maximize the likelihood of a single reference (MLE). To address this, recent work has added a calibration step, which exposes a model to its own ranked outputs to improve relevance or, in a separate line of work, contrasts positive and negative sets to improve faithfulness. While effective, much of this work has focused on how to generate and optimize these sets. Less is known about why one setup is more effective than another. In this work, we uncover the underlying characteristics of effective sets. For each training instance, we form a large, diverse pool of candidates and systematically vary the subsets used for calibration fine-tuning. Each selection strategy targets distinct aspects of the sets, such as lexical diversity or the size of the gap between positive and negatives. On three diverse scientific long-form summarization datasets (spanning biomedical, clinical, and chemical domains), we find, among others, that faithfulness calibration is optimal when the negative sets are extractive and more likely to be generated, whereas for relevance calibration, the metric margin between candidates should be maximized and surprise--the disagreement between model and metric defined candidate rankings--minimized. Code to create, select, and optimize calibration sets is available at https://github.com/griff4692/calibrating-summaries

The introduction of ISO 12913-2:2018 has provided a framework for standardized data collection and reporting procedures for soundscape practitioners. A strong emphasis was placed on the use of calibrated head and torso simulators (HATS) for binaural audio capture to obtain an accurate subjective impression and acoustic measure of the soundscape under evaluation. To auralise the binaural recordings as recorded or at set levels, the audio stimuli and the headphone setup are usually calibrated with a HATS. However, calibrated HATS are too financially prohibitive for most research teams, inevitably diminishing the availability of the soundscape standard. With the increasing availability of soundscape binaural recording datasets, and the importance of cross-cultural validation of the soundscape ISO standards, e.g.\ via the Soundscape Attributes Translation Project (SATP), it is imperative to assess the suitability of cost-effective headphone calibration methods to maximise availability without severely compromising on accuracy. Hence, this study objectively examines an open-circuit voltage (OCV) calibration method in comparison to a calibrated HATS on various soundcard and headphone combinations. Preliminary experiments found that calibration with the OCV method differed significantly from the reference binaural recordings in sound pressure levels, whereas negligible differences in levels were observed with the HATS calibration.

Computational sensing strategies often suffer from calibration errors in the physical implementation of their ideal sensing models. Such uncertainties are typically addressed by using multiple, accurately chosen training signals to recover the missing information on the sensing model, an approach that can be resource-consuming and cumbersome. Conversely, blind calibration does not employ any training signal, but corresponds to a bilinear inverse problem whose algorithmic solution is an open issue. We here address blind calibration as a non-convex problem for linear random sensing models, in which we aim to recover an unknown signal from its projections on sub-Gaussian random vectors, each subject to an unknown positive multiplicative factor (or gain). To solve this optimisation problem we resort to projected gradient descent starting from a suitable, carefully chosen initialisation point. An analysis of this algorithm allows us to show that it converges to the exact solution provided a sample complexity requirement is met, i.e., relating convergence to the amount of information collected during the sensing process. Interestingly, we show that this requirement grows linearly (up to log factors) in the number of unknowns of the problem. This sample complexity is found both in absence of prior information, as well as when subspace priors are available for both the signal and gains, allowing a further reduction of the number of observations required for our recovery guarantees to hold. Moreover, in the presence of noise we show how our descent algorithm yields a solution whose accuracy degrades gracefully with the amount of noise affecting the measurements. Finally, we present some numerical experiments in an imaging context, where our algorithm allows for a simple solution to blind calibration of the gains in a sensor array.

By design, average precision (AP) for object detection aims to treat all classes independently: AP is computed independently per category and averaged. On one hand, this is desirable as it treats all classes equally. On the other hand, it ignores cross-category confidence calibration, a key property in real-world use cases. Unfortunately, under important conditions (i.e., large vocabulary, high instance counts) the default implementation of AP is neither category independent, nor does it directly reward properly calibrated detectors. In fact, we show that on LVIS the default implementation produces a gameable metric, where a simple, un-intuitive re-ranking policy can improve AP by a large margin. To address these limitations, we introduce two complementary metrics. First, we present a simple fix to the default AP implementation, ensuring that it is independent across categories as originally intended. We benchmark recent LVIS detection advances and find that many reported gains do not translate to improvements under our new evaluation, suggesting recent improvements may arise from difficult to interpret changes to cross-category rankings. Given the importance of reliably benchmarking cross-category rankings, we consider a pooled version of AP (AP-Pool) that rewards properly calibrated detectors by directly comparing cross-category rankings. Finally, we revisit classical approaches for calibration and find that explicitly calibrating detectors improves state-of-the-art on AP-Pool by 1.7 points

Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding, so that the proportion of examples marked as anomalies equals the expected proportion of anomalies, called contamination factor. Unfortunately, there are no good methods for estimating the contamination factor itself. We address this need from a Bayesian perspective, introducing a method for estimating the posterior distribution of the contamination factor of a given unlabeled dataset. We leverage on outputs of several anomaly detectors as a representation that already captures the basic notion of anomalousness and estimate the contamination using a specific mixture formulation. Empirically on 22 datasets, we show that the estimated distribution is well-calibrated and that setting the threshold using the posterior mean improves the anomaly detectors' performance over several alternative methods. All code is publicly available for full reproducibility.

Deep neural networks have made significant progress in the field of computer vision. Recent studies have shown that depth, width and shortcut connections of neural network architectures play a crucial role in their performance. One of the most advanced neural network architectures, DenseNet, has achieved excellent convergence rates through dense connections. However, it still has obvious shortcomings in the usage of amount of memory. In this paper, we introduce a new type of pruning tool, threshold, which refers to the principle of the threshold voltage in MOSFET. This work employs this method to connect blocks of different depths in different ways to reduce the usage of memory. It is denoted as ThresholdNet. We evaluate ThresholdNet and other different networks on datasets of CIFAR10. Experiments show that HarDNet is twice as fast as DenseNet, and on this basis, ThresholdNet is 10% faster and 10% lower error rate than HarDNet.

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte Carlo Dropout with Conformal Prediction to generate prediction intervals with a guaranteed level of coverage. Our method proposes a framework to enhance existing calibration models with uncertainty quantification, compatible with various network architectures. Validated on KITTI (RGB Camera-LiDAR) and DSEC (Event Camera-LiDAR) datasets, we demonstrate effectiveness across different visual sensor types, measuring performance with adapted metrics to evaluate the efficiency and reliability of the intervals. By providing calibration parameters with quantifiable confidence measures, we offer insights into the reliability of calibration estimates, which can greatly improve the robustness of sensor fusion in dynamic environments and usefully serve the Computer Vision community.

Real-world datasets follow an imbalanced distribution, which poses significant challenges in rare-category object detection. Recent studies tackle this problem by developing re-weighting and re-sampling methods, that utilise the class frequencies of the dataset. However, these techniques focus solely on the frequency statistics and ignore the distribution of the classes in image space, missing important information. In contrast to them, we propose FRActal CALibration (FRACAL): a novel post-calibration method for long-tailed object detection. FRACAL devises a logit adjustment method that utilises the fractal dimension to estimate how uniformly classes are distributed in image space. During inference, it uses the fractal dimension to inversely downweight the probabilities of uniformly spaced class predictions achieving balance in two axes: between frequent and rare categories, and between uniformly spaced and sparsely spaced classes. FRACAL is a post-processing method and it does not require any training, also it can be combined with many off-the-shelf models such as one-stage sigmoid detectors and two-stage instance segmentation models. FRACAL boosts the rare class performance by up to 8.6% and surpasses all previous methods on LVIS dataset, while showing good generalisation to other datasets such as COCO, V3Det and OpenImages. We provide the code at https://github.com/kostas1515/FRACAL.

We present Top-Theta (Top-theta) Attention, a training-free method for sparsifying transformer attention during inference. Our key insight is that static, per-head thresholds can be calibrated to retain the desired constant number of significant elements per attention row. This approach enables content-based sparsity without retraining, and it remains robust across data domains. We further introduce compensation techniques to preserve accuracy under aggressive sparsification, establishing attention thresholding as a practical and principled alternative to top-k attention. We provide extensive evaluation on natural language processing tasks, showing that Top-theta achieves 3-10x reduction in V-cache usage and up to 10x fewer attention elements during inference while degrading no more than 1% in accuracy.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

In object detection, an intersection over union (IoU) threshold is required to define positives and negatives. An object detector, trained with low IoU threshold, e.g. 0.5, usually produces noisy detections. However, detection performance tends to degrade with increasing the IoU thresholds. Two main factors are responsible for this: 1) overfitting during training, due to exponentially vanishing positive samples, and 2) inference-time mismatch between the IoUs for which the detector is optimal and those of the input hypotheses. A multi-stage object detection architecture, the Cascade R-CNN, is proposed to address these problems. It consists of a sequence of detectors trained with increasing IoU thresholds, to be sequentially more selective against close false positives. The detectors are trained stage by stage, leveraging the observation that the output of a detector is a good distribution for training the next higher quality detector. The resampling of progressively improved hypotheses guarantees that all detectors have a positive set of examples of equivalent size, reducing the overfitting problem. The same cascade procedure is applied at inference, enabling a closer match between the hypotheses and the detector quality of each stage. A simple implementation of the Cascade R-CNN is shown to surpass all single-model object detectors on the challenging COCO dataset. Experiments also show that the Cascade R-CNN is widely applicable across detector architectures, achieving consistent gains independently of the baseline detector strength. The code will be made available at https://github.com/zhaoweicai/cascade-rcnn.

Lately, post-training quantization methods have gained considerable attention, as they are simple to use, and require only a small unlabeled calibration set. This small dataset cannot be used to fine-tune the model without significant over-fitting. Instead, these methods only use the calibration set to set the activations' dynamic ranges. However, such methods always resulted in significant accuracy degradation, when used below 8-bits (except on small datasets). Here we aim to break the 8-bit barrier. To this end, we minimize the quantization errors of each layer separately by optimizing its parameters over the calibration set. We empirically demonstrate that this approach is: (1) much less susceptible to over-fitting than the standard fine-tuning approaches, and can be used even on a very small calibration set; and (2) more powerful than previous methods, which only set the activations' dynamic ranges. Furthermore, we demonstrate how to optimally allocate the bit-widths for each layer, while constraining accuracy degradation or model compression by proposing a novel integer programming formulation. Finally, we suggest model global statistics tuning, to correct biases introduced during quantization. Together, these methods yield state-of-the-art results for both vision and text models. For instance, on ResNet50, we obtain less than 1\% accuracy degradation --- with 4-bit weights and activations in all layers, but the smallest two. We open-sourced our code.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is crucial for deploying efficient object detection models, like YOLO, on resource-constrained devices. However, the impact of reduced precision on model robustness to real-world input degradations such as noise, blur, and compression artifacts is a significant concern. This paper presents a comprehensive empirical study evaluating the robustness of YOLO models (nano to extra-large scales) across multiple precision formats: FP32, FP16 (TensorRT), Dynamic UINT8 (ONNX), and Static INT8 (TensorRT). We introduce and evaluate a degradation-aware calibration strategy for Static INT8 PTQ, where the TensorRT calibration process is exposed to a mix of clean and synthetically degraded images. Models were benchmarked on the COCO dataset under seven distinct degradation conditions (including various types and levels of noise, blur, low contrast, and JPEG compression) and a mixed-degradation scenario. Results indicate that while Static INT8 TensorRT engines offer substantial speedups (~1.5-3.3x) with a moderate accuracy drop (~3-7% mAP50-95) on clean data, the proposed degradation-aware calibration did not yield consistent, broad improvements in robustness over standard clean-data calibration across most models and degradations. A notable exception was observed for larger model scales under specific noise conditions, suggesting model capacity may influence the efficacy of this calibration approach. These findings highlight the challenges in enhancing PTQ robustness and provide insights for deploying quantized detectors in uncontrolled environments. All code and evaluation tables are available at https://github.com/AllanK24/QRID.

The advancement of large language models (LLMs) has made it difficult to differentiate human-written text from AI-generated text. Several AI-text detectors have been developed in response, which typically utilize a fixed global threshold (e.g., {\theta} = 0.5) to classify machine-generated text. However, we find that one universal threshold can fail to account for subgroup-specific distributional variations. For example, when using a fixed threshold, detectors make more false positive errors on shorter human-written text than longer, and more positive classifications on neurotic writing styles than open among long text. These discrepancies can lead to misclassification that disproportionately affects certain groups. We address this critical limitation by introducing FairOPT, an algorithm for group-specific threshold optimization in AI-generated content classifiers. Our approach partitions data into subgroups based on attributes (e.g., text length and writing style) and learns decision thresholds for each group, which enables careful balancing of performance and fairness metrics within each subgroup. In experiments with four AI text classifiers on three datasets, FairOPT enhances overall F1 score and decreases balanced error rate (BER) discrepancy across subgroups. Our framework paves the way for more robust and fair classification criteria in AI-generated output detection.

We introduce a technique that uses gauge fixing to significantly improve the quantum error correcting performance of subsystem codes. By changing the order in which check operators are measured, valuable additional information can be gained, and we introduce a new method for decoding which uses this information to improve performance. Applied to the subsystem toric code with three-qubit check operators, we increase the threshold under circuit-level depolarising noise from 0.67% to 0.81%. The threshold increases further under a circuit-level noise model with small finite bias, up to 2.22% for infinite bias. Furthermore, we construct families of finite-rate subsystem LDPC codes with three-qubit check operators and optimal-depth parity-check measurement schedules. To the best of our knowledge, these finite-rate subsystem codes outperform all known codes at circuit-level depolarising error rates as high as 0.2%, where they have a qubit overhead that is 4.3times lower than the most efficient version of the surface code and 5.1times lower than the subsystem toric code. Their threshold and pseudo-threshold exceeds 0.42% for circuit-level depolarising noise, increasing to 2.4% under infinite bias using gauge fixing.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

To increase the availability and adoption of the soundscape standard, a low-cost calibration procedure for reproduction of audio stimuli over headphones was proposed as part of the global ``Soundscape Attributes Translation Project'' (SATP) for validating ISO/TS~12913-2:2018 perceived affective quality (PAQ) attribute translations. A previous preliminary study revealed significant deviations from the intended equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure levels (L_{A,eq}) using the open-circuit voltage (OCV) calibration procedure. For a more holistic human-centric perspective, the OCV method is further investigated here in terms of psychoacoustic parameters, including relevant exceedance levels to account for temporal effects on the same 27 stimuli from the SATP. Moreover, a within-subjects experiment with 36 participants was conducted to examine the effects of OCV calibration on the PAQ attributes in ISO/TS~12913-2:2018. Bland-Altman analysis of the objective indicators revealed large biases in the OCV method across all weighted sound level and loudness indicators; and roughness indicators at 5{\%} and 10{\%} exceedance levels. Significant perceptual differences due to the OCV method were observed in about 20{\%} of the stimuli, which did not correspond clearly with the biased acoustic indicators. A cautioned interpretation of the objective and perceptual differences due to small and unpaired samples nevertheless provide grounds for further investigation.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Deep learning (DL) has become the dominant approach for medical image segmentation, yet ensuring the reliability and clinical applicability of these models requires addressing key challenges such as annotation variability, calibration, and uncertainty estimation. This is why we created the Calibration and Uncertainty for multiRater Volume Assessment in multiorgan Segmentation (CURVAS), which highlights the critical role of multiple annotators in establishing a more comprehensive ground truth, emphasizing that segmentation is inherently subjective and that leveraging inter-annotator variability is essential for robust model evaluation. Seven teams participated in the challenge, submitting a variety of DL models evaluated using metrics such as Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), Expected Calibration Error (ECE), and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). By incorporating consensus and dissensus ground truth, we assess how DL models handle uncertainty and whether their confidence estimates align with true segmentation performance. Our findings reinforce the importance of well-calibrated models, as better calibration is strongly correlated with the quality of the results. Furthermore, we demonstrate that segmentation models trained on diverse datasets and enriched with pre-trained knowledge exhibit greater robustness, particularly in cases deviating from standard anatomical structures. Notably, the best-performing models achieved high DSC and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. This work underscores the need for multi-annotator ground truth, thorough calibration assessments, and uncertainty-aware evaluations to develop trustworthy and clinically reliable DL-based medical image segmentation models.

Calibration-based methods have dominated RAW image denoising under extremely low-light environments. However, these methods suffer from several main deficiencies: 1) the calibration procedure is laborious and time-consuming, 2) denoisers for different cameras are difficult to transfer, and 3) the discrepancy between synthetic noise and real noise is enlarged by high digital gain. To overcome the above shortcomings, we propose a calibration-free pipeline for Lighting Every Drakness (LED), regardless of the digital gain or camera sensor. Instead of calibrating the noise parameters and training repeatedly, our method could adapt to a target camera only with few-shot paired data and fine-tuning. In addition, well-designed structural modification during both stages alleviates the domain gap between synthetic and real noise without any extra computational cost. With 2 pairs for each additional digital gain (in total 6 pairs) and 0.5% iterations, our method achieves superior performance over other calibration-based methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/Srameo/LED .

Motivated by the theoretical interest in reconstructing long 3D trajectories of individual birds in large flocks, we developed CoMo, a co-moving camera system of two synchronized high speed cameras coupled with rotational stages, which allow us to dynamically follow the motion of a target flock. With the rotation of the cameras we overcome the limitations of standard static systems that restrict the duration of the collected data to the short interval of time in which targets are in the cameras common field of view, but at the same time we change in time the external parameters of the system, which have then to be calibrated frame-by-frame. We address the calibration of the external parameters measuring the position of the cameras and their three angles of yaw, pitch and roll in the system "home" configuration (rotational stage at an angle equal to 0deg and combining this static information with the time dependent rotation due to the stages. We evaluate the robustness and accuracy of the system by comparing reconstructed and measured 3D distances in what we call 3D tests, which show a relative error of the order of 1%. The novelty of the work presented in this paper is not only on the system itself, but also on the approach we use in the tests, which we show to be a very powerful tool in detecting and fixing calibration inaccuracies and that, for this reason, may be relevant for a broad audience.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities out of box for a wide range of applications, yet accuracy still remains a major growth area, especially in mission-critical domains such as biomedicine. An effective method to calibrate the confidence level on LLM responses is essential to automatically detect errors and facilitate human-in-the-loop verification. An important source of calibration signals stems from expert-stipulated programmatic supervision, which is often available at low cost but has its own limitations such as noise and coverage. In this paper, we introduce a Pareto optimal self-supervision framework that can leverage available programmatic supervision to systematically calibrate LLM responses by producing a risk score for every response, without any additional manual efforts. This is accomplished by learning a harmonizer model to align LLM output with other available supervision sources, which would assign higher risk scores to more uncertain LLM responses and facilitate error correction. Experiments on standard relation extraction tasks in biomedical and general domains demonstrate the promise of this approach, with our proposed risk scores highly correlated with the real error rate of LLMs. For the most uncertain test instances, dynamic prompting based on our proposed risk scores results in significant accuracy improvement for off-the-shelf LLMs, boosting GPT-3 results past state-of-the-art (SOTA) weak supervision and GPT-4 results past SOTA supervised results on challenging evaluation datasets.

A probabilistic classifier with reliable predictive uncertainties i) fits successfully to the target domain data, ii) provides calibrated class probabilities in difficult regions of the target domain (e.g.\ class overlap), and iii) accurately identifies queries coming out of the target domain and rejects them. We introduce an original combination of Evidential Deep Learning, Neural Processes, and Neural Turing Machines capable of providing all three essential properties mentioned above for total uncertainty quantification. We observe our method on five classification tasks to be the only one that can excel all three aspects of total calibration with a single standalone predictor. Our unified solution delivers an implementation-friendly and compute efficient recipe for safety clearance and provides intellectual economy to an investigation of algorithmic roots of epistemic awareness in deep neural nets.

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on in-domain test datasets, they are limited by their inability to yield reliable uncertainty estimates in domain-shift and out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. We aim to bridge this gap by proposing DAC, an accuracy-preserving as well as Density-Aware Calibration method based on k-nearest-neighbors (KNN). In contrast to existing post-hoc methods, we utilize hidden layers of classifiers as a source for uncertainty-related information and study their importance. We show that DAC is a generic method that can readily be combined with state-of-the-art post-hoc methods. DAC boosts the robustness of calibration performance in domain-shift and OOD, while maintaining excellent in-domain predictive uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that DAC leads to consistently better calibration across a large number of model architectures, datasets, and metrics. Additionally, we show that DAC improves calibration substantially on recent large-scale neural networks pre-trained on vast amounts of data.

The fusion of LiDARs and cameras has been increasingly adopted in autonomous driving for perception tasks. The performance of such fusion-based algorithms largely depends on the accuracy of sensor calibration, which is challenging due to the difficulty of identifying common features across different data modalities. Previously, many calibration methods involved specific targets and/or manual intervention, which has proven to be cumbersome and costly. Learning-based online calibration methods have been proposed, but their performance is barely satisfactory in most cases. These methods usually suffer from issues such as sparse feature maps, unreliable cross-modality association, inaccurate calibration parameter regression, etc. In this paper, to address these issues, we propose CalibFormer, an end-to-end network for automatic LiDAR-camera calibration. We aggregate multiple layers of camera and LiDAR image features to achieve high-resolution representations. A multi-head correlation module is utilized to identify correlations between features more accurately. Lastly, we employ transformer architectures to estimate accurate calibration parameters from the correlation information. Our method achieved a mean translation error of 0.8751 cm and a mean rotation error of 0.0562 ^{circ} on the KITTI dataset, surpassing existing state-of-the-art methods and demonstrating strong robustness, accuracy, and generalization capabilities.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Early time classification algorithms aim to label a stream of features without processing the full input stream, while maintaining accuracy comparable to that achieved by applying the classifier to the entire input. In this paper, we introduce a statistical framework that can be applied to any sequential classifier, formulating a calibrated stopping rule. This data-driven rule attains finite-sample, distribution-free control of the accuracy gap between full and early-time classification. We start by presenting a novel method that builds on the Learn-then-Test calibration framework to control this gap marginally, on average over i.i.d. instances. As this algorithm tends to yield an excessively high accuracy gap for early halt times, our main contribution is the proposal of a framework that controls a stronger notion of error, where the accuracy gap is controlled conditionally on the accumulated halt times. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability, and usefulness of our method. We show that our proposed early stopping mechanism reduces up to 94% of timesteps used for classification while achieving rigorous accuracy gap control.

The ability of the deep learning model to recognize when a sample falls outside its learned distribution is critical for safe and reliable deployment. Recent state-of-the-art out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods leverage activation shaping to improve the separation between in-distribution (ID) and OOD inputs. These approaches resort to sample-specific scaling but apply a static percentile threshold across all samples regardless of their nature, resulting in suboptimal ID-OOD separability. In this work, we propose AdaSCALE, an adaptive scaling procedure that dynamically adjusts the percentile threshold based on a sample's estimated OOD likelihood. This estimation leverages our key observation: OOD samples exhibit significantly more pronounced activation shifts at high-magnitude activations under minor perturbation compared to ID samples. AdaSCALE enables stronger scaling for likely ID samples and weaker scaling for likely OOD samples, yielding highly separable energy scores. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art OOD detection performance, outperforming the latest rival OptFS by 14.94 in near-OOD and 21.67 in far-OOD datasets in average FPR@95 metric on the ImageNet-1k benchmark across eight diverse architectures. The code is available at: https://github.com/sudarshanregmi/AdaSCALE/

In a multi-sensor fusion system composed of cameras and LiDAR, precise extrinsic calibration contributes to the system's long-term stability and accurate perception of the environment. However, methods based on extracting and registering corresponding points still face challenges in terms of automation and precision. This paper proposes a novel fully automatic extrinsic calibration method for LiDAR-camera systems that circumvents the need for corresponding point registration. In our approach, a novel algorithm to extract required LiDAR correspondence point is proposed. This method can effectively filter out irrelevant points by computing the orientation of plane point clouds and extracting points by applying distance- and density-based thresholds. We avoid the need for corresponding point registration by introducing extrinsic parameters between the LiDAR and camera into the projection of extracted points and constructing co-planar constraints. These parameters are then optimized to solve for the extrinsic. We validated our method across multiple sets of LiDAR-camera systems. In synthetic experiments, our method demonstrates superior performance compared to current calibration techniques. Real-world data experiments further confirm the precision and robustness of the proposed algorithm, with average rotation and translation calibration errors between LiDAR and camera of less than 0.05 degree and 0.015m, respectively. This method enables automatic and accurate extrinsic calibration in a single one step, emphasizing the potential of calibration algorithms beyond using corresponding point registration to enhance the automation and precision of LiDAR-camera system calibration.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly computationally complex, developing efficient deployment strategies, such as quantization, becomes crucial. State-of-the-art Post-training Quantization (PTQ) techniques often rely on calibration processes to maintain the accuracy of these models. However, while these calibration techniques can enhance performance in certain domains, they may not be as effective in others. This paper aims to draw attention to robust statistical approaches that can mitigate such issues. We propose a weight-adaptive PTQ method that can be considered a precursor to calibration-based PTQ methods, guiding the quantization process to preserve the distribution of weights by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the quantized weights and the originally trained weights. This minimization ensures that the quantized model retains the Shannon information content of the original model to a great extent, guaranteeing robust and efficient deployment across many tasks. As such, our proposed approach can perform on par with most common calibration-based PTQ methods, establishing a new pre-calibration step for further adjusting the quantized weights with calibration. We show that our pre-calibration results achieve the same accuracy as some existing calibration-based PTQ methods on various LLMs.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

Ensuring reliable confidence scores from deep neural networks is of paramount significance in critical decision-making systems, particularly in real-world domains such as healthcare. Recent literature on calibrating deep segmentation networks has resulted in substantial progress. Nevertheless, these approaches are strongly inspired by the advancements in classification tasks, and thus their uncertainty is usually modeled by leveraging the information of individual pixels, disregarding the local structure of the object of interest. Indeed, only the recent Spatially Varying Label Smoothing (SVLS) approach considers pixel spatial relationships across classes, by softening the pixel label assignments with a discrete spatial Gaussian kernel. In this work, we first present a constrained optimization perspective of SVLS and demonstrate that it enforces an implicit constraint on soft class proportions of surrounding pixels. Furthermore, our analysis shows that SVLS lacks a mechanism to balance the contribution of the constraint with the primary objective, potentially hindering the optimization process. Based on these observations, we propose NACL (Neighbor Aware CaLibration), a principled and simple solution based on equality constraints on the logit values, which enables to control explicitly both the enforced constraint and the weight of the penalty, offering more flexibility. Comprehensive experiments on a wide variety of well-known segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the superior calibration performance of the proposed approach, without affecting its discriminative power. Furthermore, ablation studies empirically show the model agnostic nature of our approach, which can be used to train a wide span of deep segmentation networks.

Prompting and in-context learning (ICL) have become efficient learning paradigms for large language models (LLMs). However, LLMs suffer from prompt brittleness and various bias factors in the prompt, including but not limited to the formatting, the choice verbalizers, and the ICL examples. To address this problem that results in unexpected performance degradation, calibration methods have been developed to mitigate the effects of these biases while recovering LLM performance. In this work, we first conduct a systematic analysis of the existing calibration methods, where we both provide a unified view and reveal the failure cases. Inspired by these analyses, we propose Batch Calibration (BC), a simple yet intuitive method that controls the contextual bias from the batched input, unifies various prior approaches, and effectively addresses the aforementioned issues. BC is zero-shot, inference-only, and incurs negligible additional costs. In the few-shot setup, we further extend BC to allow it to learn the contextual bias from labeled data. We validate the effectiveness of BC with PaLM 2-(S, M, L) and CLIP models and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance over previous calibration baselines across more than 10 natural language understanding and image classification tasks.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) uses unlabeled data to improve the performance of machine learning models when labeled data is scarce. However, its real-world applications often face the label distribution mismatch problem, in which the unlabeled dataset includes instances whose ground-truth labels are absent from the labeled training dataset. Recent studies, referred to as safe SSL, have addressed this issue by using both classification and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. However, the existing methods may suffer from overconfidence in deep neural networks, leading to increased SSL errors because of high confidence in incorrect pseudo-labels or OOD detection. To address this, we propose a novel method, CaliMatch, which calibrates both the classifier and the OOD detector to foster safe SSL. CaliMatch presents adaptive label smoothing and temperature scaling, which eliminates the need to manually tune the smoothing degree for effective calibration. We give a theoretical justification for why improving the calibration of both the classifier and the OOD detector is crucial in safe SSL. Extensive evaluations on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, SVHN, TinyImageNet, and ImageNet demonstrate that CaliMatch outperforms the existing methods in safe SSL tasks.

Unsupervised feature extraction algorithms form one of the most important building blocks in machine learning systems. These algorithms are often adapted to the event-based domain to perform online learning in neuromorphic hardware. However, not designed for the purpose, such algorithms typically require significant simplification during implementation to meet hardware constraints, creating trade offs with performance. Furthermore, conventional feature extraction algorithms are not designed to generate useful intermediary signals which are valuable only in the context of neuromorphic hardware limitations. In this work a novel event-based feature extraction method is proposed that focuses on these issues. The algorithm operates via simple adaptive selection thresholds which allow a simpler implementation of network homeostasis than previous works by trading off a small amount of information loss in the form of missed events that fall outside the selection thresholds. The behavior of the selection thresholds and the output of the network as a whole are shown to provide uniquely useful signals indicating network weight convergence without the need to access network weights. A novel heuristic method for network size selection is proposed which makes use of noise events and their feature representations. The use of selection thresholds is shown to produce network activation patterns that predict classification accuracy allowing rapid evaluation and optimization of system parameters without the need to run back-end classifiers. The feature extraction method is tested on both the N-MNIST benchmarking dataset and a dataset of airplanes passing through the field of view. Multiple configurations with different classifiers are tested with the results quantifying the resultant performance gains at each processing stage.

Event cameras offer many advantages over standard cameras due to their distinctive principle of operation: low power, low latency, high temporal resolution and high dynamic range. Nonetheless, the success of many downstream visual applications also hinges on an efficient and effective scene representation, where Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) is seen as the leading candidate. Such promise and potential of event cameras and NeRF inspired recent works to investigate on the reconstruction of NeRF from moving event cameras. However, these works are mainly limited in terms of the dependence on dense and low-noise event streams, as well as generalization to arbitrary contrast threshold values and camera speed profiles. In this work, we propose Robust e-NeRF, a novel method to directly and robustly reconstruct NeRFs from moving event cameras under various real-world conditions, especially from sparse and noisy events generated under non-uniform motion. It consists of two key components: a realistic event generation model that accounts for various intrinsic parameters (e.g. time-independent, asymmetric threshold and refractory period) and non-idealities (e.g. pixel-to-pixel threshold variation), as well as a complementary pair of normalized reconstruction losses that can effectively generalize to arbitrary speed profiles and intrinsic parameter values without such prior knowledge. Experiments on real and novel realistically simulated sequences verify our effectiveness. Our code, synthetic dataset and improved event simulator are public.

Although Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have markedly improved novel view synthesis, accurate uncertainty quantification in their image predictions remains an open problem. The prevailing methods for estimating uncertainty, including the state-of-the-art Density-aware NeRF Ensembles (DANE) [29], quantify uncertainty without calibration. This frequently leads to over- or under-confidence in image predictions, which can undermine their real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a method which, for the first time, achieves calibrated uncertainties for NeRFs. To accomplish this, we overcome a significant challenge in adapting existing calibration techniques to NeRFs: a need to hold out ground truth images from the target scene, reducing the number of images left to train the NeRF. This issue is particularly problematic in sparse-view settings, where we can operate with as few as three images. To address this, we introduce the concept of a meta-calibrator that performs uncertainty calibration for NeRFs with a single forward pass without the need for holding out any images from the target scene. Our meta-calibrator is a neural network that takes as input the NeRF images and uncalibrated uncertainty maps and outputs a scene-specific calibration curve that corrects the NeRF's uncalibrated uncertainties. We show that the meta-calibrator can generalize on unseen scenes and achieves well-calibrated and state-of-the-art uncertainty for NeRFs, significantly beating DANE and other approaches. This opens opportunities to improve applications that rely on accurate NeRF uncertainty estimates such as next-best view planning and potentially more trustworthy image reconstruction for medical diagnosis. The code is available at https://niki-amini-naieni.github.io/instantcalibration.github.io/.

In this paper, we describe a design of a mixed signal circuit for a binary neuron (a.k.a perceptron, threshold logic gate) and a methodology for automatically embedding such cells in ASICs. The binary neuron, referred to as an FTL (flash threshold logic) uses floating gate or flash transistors whose threshold voltages serve as a proxy for the weights of the neuron. Algorithms for mapping the weights to the flash transistor threshold voltages are presented. The threshold voltages are determined to maximize both the robustness of the cell and its speed. The performance, power, and area of a single FTL cell are shown to be significantly smaller (79.4%), consume less power (61.6%), and operate faster (40.3%) compared to conventional CMOS logic equivalents. Also included are the architecture and the algorithms to program the flash devices of an FTL. The FTL cells are implemented as standard cells, and are designed to allow commercial synthesis and P&R tools to automatically use them in synthesis of ASICs. Substantial reductions in area and power without sacrificing performance are demonstrated on several ASIC benchmarks by the automatic embedding of FTL cells. The paper also demonstrates how FTL cells can be used for fixing timing errors after fabrication.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (\ge 1 - \alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993\to0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0\%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5\%\to63.4\%\pm0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5\%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995\pm0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.

We consider the issue of calibration in large language models (LLM). Recent studies have found that common interventions such as instruction tuning often result in poorly calibrated LLMs. Although calibration is well-explored in traditional applications, calibrating LLMs is uniquely challenging. These challenges stem as much from the severe computational requirements of LLMs as from their versatility, which allows them to be applied to diverse tasks. Addressing these challenges, we propose THERMOMETER, a calibration approach tailored to LLMs. THERMOMETER learns an auxiliary model, given data from multiple tasks, for calibrating a LLM. It is computationally efficient, preserves the accuracy of the LLM, and produces better-calibrated responses for new tasks. Extensive empirical evaluations across various benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Given the importance of getting calibrated predictions and reliable uncertainty estimations, various post-hoc calibration methods have been developed for neural networks on standard multi-class classification tasks. However, these methods are not well suited for calibrating graph neural networks (GNNs), which presents unique challenges such as accounting for the graph structure and the graph-induced correlations between the nodes. In this work, we conduct a systematic study on the calibration qualities of GNN node predictions. In particular, we identify five factors which influence the calibration of GNNs: general under-confident tendency, diversity of nodewise predictive distributions, distance to training nodes, relative confidence level, and neighborhood similarity. Furthermore, based on the insights from this study, we design a novel calibration method named Graph Attention Temperature Scaling (GATS), which is tailored for calibrating graph neural networks. GATS incorporates designs that address all the identified influential factors and produces nodewise temperature scaling using an attention-based architecture. GATS is accuracy-preserving, data-efficient, and expressive at the same time. Our experiments empirically verify the effectiveness of GATS, demonstrating that it can consistently achieve state-of-the-art calibration results on various graph datasets for different GNN backbones.

In this paper, we uncover a systematic bias in the evaluation paradigm of adopting large language models~(LLMs), e.g., GPT-4, as a referee to score and compare the quality of responses generated by candidate models. We find that the quality ranking of candidate responses can be easily hacked by simply altering their order of appearance in the context. This manipulation allows us to skew the evaluation result, making one model appear considerably superior to the other, e.g., Vicuna-13B could beat ChatGPT on 66 over 80 tested queries with ChatGPT as an evaluator. To address this issue, we propose a calibration framework with three simple yet effective strategies: 1) Multiple Evidence Calibration, which requires the evaluator model to generate multiple evaluation evidence before assigning ratings; 2) Balanced Position Calibration, which aggregates results across various orders to determine the final score; 3) Human-in-the-Loop Calibration, which introduces a balanced position diversity entropy to measure the difficulty of each example and seeks human assistance when needed. We also manually annotate the "win/tie/lose" outcomes of responses from ChatGPT and Vicuna-13B in the Vicuna Benchmark's question prompt, and extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach successfully mitigates evaluation bias, resulting in closer alignment with human judgments. We release our code and human annotation at https://github.com/i-Eval/FairEval to facilitate future research.

Significant progress has been made in photo-realistic scene reconstruction over recent years. Various disparate efforts have enabled capabilities such as multi-appearance or large-scale modeling; however, there lacks a welldesigned dataset that can evaluate the holistic progress of scene reconstruction. We introduce a collection of imagery of the Johns Hopkins Homewood Campus, acquired at different seasons, times of day, in multiple elevations, and across a large scale. We perform a multi-stage calibration process, which efficiently recover camera parameters from phone and drone cameras. This dataset can enable researchers to rigorously explore challenges in unconstrained settings, including effects of inconsistent illumination, reconstruction from large scale and from significantly different perspectives, etc.

Pruning and quantization form the foundation of model compression for neural networks, enabling efficient inference for large language models (LLMs). Recently, various quantization and pruning techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in a post-training setting. They rely upon calibration data, a small set of unlabeled examples, to generate layer activations. However, no prior work has systematically investigated how the calibration data impacts the effectiveness of model compression methods. In this paper, we present the first extensive empirical study on the effect of calibration data upon LLM performance. We trial a variety of pruning and quantization methods, tasks, models, and datasets. Surprisingly, we find substantial variations in downstream task performance, contrasting existing work that suggests a greater level of robustness to the calibration data. Finally, we make a series of recommendations for the effective use of calibration data in LLM quantization and pruning.

Thermal imaging has a variety of applications, from agricultural monitoring to building inspection to imaging under poor visibility, such as in low light, fog, and rain. However, reconstructing thermal scenes in 3D presents several challenges due to the comparatively lower resolution and limited features present in long-wave infrared (LWIR) images. To overcome these challenges, we propose a unified framework for scene reconstruction from a set of LWIR and RGB images, using a multispectral radiance field to represent a scene viewed by both visible and infrared cameras, thus leveraging information across both spectra. We calibrate the RGB and infrared cameras with respect to each other, as a preprocessing step using a simple calibration target. We demonstrate our method on real-world sets of RGB and LWIR photographs captured from a handheld thermal camera, showing the effectiveness of our method at scene representation across the visible and infrared spectra. We show that our method is capable of thermal super-resolution, as well as visually removing obstacles to reveal objects that are occluded in either the RGB or thermal channels. Please see https://yvette256.github.io/thermalnerf for video results as well as our code and dataset release.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Efficient decoding to estimate error locations from outcomes of syndrome measurement is the prerequisite for quantum error correction. Decoding in presence of circuit-level noise including measurement errors should be considered in case of actual quantum computing devices. In this work, we develop a decoder for circuit-level noise that solves the error estimation problems as Ising-type optimization problems. We confirm that the threshold theorem in the surface code under the circuitlevel noise is reproduced with an error threshold of approximately 0.4%. We also demonstrate the advantage of the decoder through which the Y error detection rate can be improved compared with other matching-based decoders. Our results reveal that a lower logical error rate can be obtained using our algorithm compared with that of the minimum-weight perfect matching algorithm.

Light plays an important role in human well-being. However, most computer vision tasks treat pixels without considering their relationship to physical luminance. To address this shortcoming, we introduce the Laval Photometric Indoor HDR Dataset, the first large-scale photometrically calibrated dataset of high dynamic range 360{\deg} panoramas. Our key contribution is the calibration of an existing, uncalibrated HDR Dataset. We do so by accurately capturing RAW bracketed exposures simultaneously with a professional photometric measurement device (chroma meter) for multiple scenes across a variety of lighting conditions. Using the resulting measurements, we establish the calibration coefficients to be applied to the HDR images. The resulting dataset is a rich representation of indoor scenes which displays a wide range of illuminance and color, and varied types of light sources. We exploit the dataset to introduce three novel tasks, where: per-pixel luminance, per-pixel color and planar illuminance can be predicted from a single input image. Finally, we also capture another smaller photometric dataset with a commercial 360{\deg} camera, to experiment on generalization across cameras. We are optimistic that the release of our datasets and associated code will spark interest in physically accurate light estimation within the community. Dataset and code are available at https://lvsn.github.io/beyondthepixel/.

Because stress is subjective and is expressed differently from one person to another, generic stress prediction models (i.e., models that predict the stress of any person) perform crudely. Only person-specific ones (i.e., models that predict the stress of a preordained person) yield reliable predictions, but they are not adaptable and costly to deploy in real-world environments. For illustration, in an office environment, a stress monitoring system that uses person-specific models would require collecting new data and training a new model for every employee. Moreover, once deployed, the models would deteriorate and need expensive periodic upgrades because stress is dynamic and depends on unforeseeable factors. We propose a simple, yet practical and cost effective calibration technique that derives an accurate and personalized stress prediction model from physiological samples collected from a large population. We validate our approach on two stress datasets. The results show that our technique performs much better than a generic model. For instance, a generic model achieved only a 42.5% accuracy. However, with only 100 calibration samples, we raised its accuracy to 95.2% We also propose a blueprint for a stress monitoring system based on our strategy, and we debate its merits and limitation. Finally, we made public our source code and the relevant datasets to allow other researchers to replicate our findings.

Camera-LiDAR extrinsic calibration is a critical task for multi-sensor fusion in autonomous systems, such as self-driving vehicles and mobile robots. Traditional techniques often require manual intervention or specific environments, making them labour-intensive and error-prone. Existing deep learning-based self-calibration methods focus on small realignments and still rely on initial estimates, limiting their practicality. In this paper, we present PseudoCal, a novel self-calibration method that overcomes these limitations by leveraging the pseudo-LiDAR concept and working directly in the 3D space instead of limiting itself to the camera field of view. In typical autonomous vehicle and robotics contexts and conventions, PseudoCal is able to perform one-shot calibration quasi-independently of initial parameter estimates, addressing extreme cases that remain unsolved by existing approaches.

Recently computer-aided diagnosis has demonstrated promising performance, effectively alleviating the workload of clinicians. However, the inherent sample imbalance among different diseases leads algorithms biased to the majority categories, leading to poor performance for rare categories. Existing works formulated this challenge as a long-tailed problem and attempted to tackle it by decoupling the feature representation and classification. Yet, due to the imbalanced distribution and limited samples from tail classes, these works are prone to biased representation learning and insufficient classifier calibration. To tackle these problems, we propose a new Long-tailed Medical Diagnosis (LMD) framework for balanced medical image classification on long-tailed datasets. In the initial stage, we develop a Relation-aware Representation Learning (RRL) scheme to boost the representation ability by encouraging the encoder to capture intrinsic semantic features through different data augmentations. In the subsequent stage, we propose an Iterative Classifier Calibration (ICC) scheme to calibrate the classifier iteratively. This is achieved by generating a large number of balanced virtual features and fine-tuning the encoder using an Expectation-Maximization manner. The proposed ICC compensates for minority categories to facilitate unbiased classifier optimization while maintaining the diagnostic knowledge in majority classes. Comprehensive experiments on three public long-tailed medical datasets demonstrate that our LMD framework significantly surpasses state-of-the-art approaches. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/peterlipan/LMD.

This work addresses the challenge of high-quality surface normal estimation from monocular colored inputs (i.e., images and videos), a field which has recently been revolutionized by repurposing diffusion priors. However, previous attempts still struggle with stochastic inference, conflicting with the deterministic nature of the Image2Normal task, and costly ensembling step, which slows down the estimation process. Our method, StableNormal, mitigates the stochasticity of the diffusion process by reducing inference variance, thus producing "Stable-and-Sharp" normal estimates without any additional ensembling process. StableNormal works robustly under challenging imaging conditions, such as extreme lighting, blurring, and low quality. It is also robust against transparent and reflective surfaces, as well as cluttered scenes with numerous objects. Specifically, StableNormal employs a coarse-to-fine strategy, which starts with a one-step normal estimator (YOSO) to derive an initial normal guess, that is relatively coarse but reliable, then followed by a semantic-guided refinement process (SG-DRN) that refines the normals to recover geometric details. The effectiveness of StableNormal is demonstrated through competitive performance in standard datasets such as DIODE-indoor, iBims, ScannetV2 and NYUv2, and also in various downstream tasks, such as surface reconstruction and normal enhancement. These results evidence that StableNormal retains both the "stability" and "sharpness" for accurate normal estimation. StableNormal represents a baby attempt to repurpose diffusion priors for deterministic estimation. To democratize this, code and models have been publicly available in hf.co/Stable-X

Large language models (LLMs) offer powerful capabilities but incur substantial computational costs, driving the need for efficient compression techniques. This study evaluates the impact of popular compression methods - Magnitude Pruning, SparseGPT, and Wanda - on the LLaMA-2-7B model, focusing on the trade-offs between model size reduction, downstream task performance, and the role of calibration data. Our findings reveal that while SparseGPT and Wanda preserve perplexity even at 50% sparsity, they suffer significant degradation on downstream tasks, highlighting the inadequacy of perplexity as the sole evaluation metric. To address this, we introduce Jensen-Shannon (JS) Divergence as a more comprehensive metric that captures nuanced changes in model behavior post-compression. We further demonstrate that task-specific calibration data significantly enhances the downstream performance of compressed models compared to general calibration data. This research underscores the necessity for diverse evaluation metrics and careful calibration data selection to fully understand the complexities of LLM compression and its implications for practical applications.

Post-training quantization has emerged as the most widely used strategy for deploying large language models at low precision. Still, current methods show perplexity degradation at bit-widths less than or equal to 4, partly because representing outliers causes precision issues in parameters that share the same scales as these outliers. This problem is especially pronounced for calibration-free, uniform quantization methods. We introduce SINQ to augment existing post-training quantizers with an additional second-axis scale factor and a fast Sinkhorn-Knopp-style algorithm that finds scales to normalize per-row and per-column variances, thereby minimizing a novel per-matrix proxy target for quantization: the matrix imbalance. Our method has no interactions between layers and can be trivially applied to new architectures to quantize any linear layers. We evaluate our method on the Qwen3 model family and DeepSeek-V2.5. SINQ improves WikiText2 and C4 perplexity significantly against uncalibrated uniform quantization baselines and can be further enhanced by combining it with calibration and non-uniform quantization levels. Code to reproduce the results of this work and to easily quantize models using SINQ is available at https://github.com/huawei-csl/SINQ.

Selective Classification, wherein models can reject low-confidence predictions, promises reliable translation of machine-learning based classification systems to real-world scenarios such as clinical diagnostics. While current evaluation of these systems typically assumes fixed working points based on pre-defined rejection thresholds, methodological progress requires benchmarking the general performance of systems akin to the AUROC in standard classification. In this work, we define 5 requirements for multi-threshold metrics in selective classification regarding task alignment, interpretability, and flexibility, and show how current approaches fail to meet them. We propose the Area under the Generalized Risk Coverage curve (AUGRC), which meets all requirements and can be directly interpreted as the average risk of undetected failures. We empirically demonstrate the relevance of AUGRC on a comprehensive benchmark spanning 6 data sets and 13 confidence scoring functions. We find that the proposed metric substantially changes metric rankings on 5 out of the 6 data sets.

Real-world large-scale datasets are both noisily labeled and class-imbalanced. The issues seriously hurt the generalization of trained models. It is hence significant to address the simultaneous incorrect labeling and class-imbalance, i.e., the problem of learning with noisy labels on long-tailed data. Previous works develop several methods for the problem. However, they always rely on strong assumptions that are invalid or hard to be checked in practice. In this paper, to handle the problem and address the limitations of prior works, we propose a representation calibration method RCAL. Specifically, RCAL works with the representations extracted by unsupervised contrastive learning. We assume that without incorrect labeling and class imbalance, the representations of instances in each class conform to a multivariate Gaussian distribution, which is much milder and easier to be checked. Based on the assumption, we recover underlying representation distributions from polluted ones resulting from mislabeled and class-imbalanced data. Additional data points are then sampled from the recovered distributions to help generalization. Moreover, during classifier training, representation learning takes advantage of representation robustness brought by contrastive learning, which further improves the classifier performance. We derive theoretical results to discuss the effectiveness of our representation calibration. Experiments on multiple benchmarks justify our claims and confirm the superiority of the proposed method.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

We address the problem of network calibration adjusting miscalibrated confidences of deep neural networks. Many approaches to network calibration adopt a regularization-based method that exploits a regularization term to smooth the miscalibrated confidences. Although these approaches have shown the effectiveness on calibrating the networks, there is still a lack of understanding on the underlying principles of regularization in terms of network calibration. We present in this paper an in-depth analysis of existing regularization-based methods, providing a better understanding on how they affect to network calibration. Specifically, we have observed that 1) the regularization-based methods can be interpreted as variants of label smoothing, and 2) they do not always behave desirably. Based on the analysis, we introduce a novel loss function, dubbed ACLS, that unifies the merits of existing regularization methods, while avoiding the limitations. We show extensive experimental results for image classification and semantic segmentation on standard benchmarks, including CIFAR10, Tiny-ImageNet, ImageNet, and PASCAL VOC, demonstrating the effectiveness of our loss function.

Recently, there has been a trend of evaluating the Large Language Model (LLM) quality in the flavor of LLM-as-a-Judge, namely leveraging another LLM to evaluate the current output quality. However, existing judges are proven to be biased, namely they would favor answers which present better superficial quality (such as verbosity, fluency) while ignoring the instruction following ability. In this work, we propose systematic research about the bias of LLM-as-a-Judge. Specifically, for closed-source judge models, we apply calibration to mitigate the significance of superficial quality, both on probability level and prompt level. For open-source judge models, we propose to mitigate the bias by contrastive training, with curated negative samples that deviate from instruction but present better superficial quality. We apply our methods on the bias evaluation benchmark, and experiment results show our methods mitigate the bias by a large margin while maintaining a satisfactory evaluation accuracy.

Quantization has become a crucial step for the efficient deployment of deep neural networks, where floating point operations are converted to simpler fixed point operations. In its most naive form, it simply consists in a combination of scaling and rounding transformations, leading to either a limited compression rate or a significant accuracy drop. Recently, Gradient-based post-training quantization (GPTQ) methods appears to be constitute a suitable trade-off between such simple methods and more powerful, yet expensive Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) approaches, particularly when attempting to quantize LLMs, where scalability of the quantization process is of paramount importance. GPTQ essentially consists in learning the rounding operation using a small calibration set. In this work, we challenge common choices in GPTQ methods. In particular, we show that the process is, to a certain extent, robust to a number of variables (weight selection, feature augmentation, choice of calibration set). More importantly, we derive a number of best practices for designing more efficient and scalable GPTQ methods, regarding the problem formulation (loss, degrees of freedom, use of non-uniform quantization schemes) or optimization process (choice of variable and optimizer). Lastly, we propose a novel importance-based mixed-precision technique. Those guidelines lead to significant performance improvements on all the tested state-of-the-art GPTQ methods and networks (e.g. +6.819 points on ViT for 4-bit quantization), paving the way for the design of scalable, yet effective quantization methods.

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining lifespan from facial and whole-body images, alongside robust uncertainty quantification. We show that predictive uncertainty varies systematically with the true remaining lifespan, and that this uncertainty can be effectively modeled by learning a Gaussian distribution for each sample. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.48 years on an established Dataset, and further improves to 4.79 and 5.07 years MAE on two new, higher-quality datasets curated and published in this work. Importantly, our models provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as demonstrated by a bucketed expected calibration error of 0.62 years. While not intended for clinical deployment, these results highlight the potential of extracting medically relevant signals from images. We make all code and datasets available to facilitate further research.

Despite their widespread applications, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to express uncertainty, posing a challenge for reliable deployment in high stakes and safety critical domains like clinical diagnostics. Existing standard baseline methods such as model logits and elicited probabilities produce overconfident and poorly calibrated estimates. In this work, we propose Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), a likelihood-free Bayesian inference, based approach that treats LLMs as a stochastic simulator to infer posterior distributions over predictive probabilities. We evaluate our ABC approach on two clinically relevant benchmarks: a synthetic oral lesion diagnosis dataset and the publicly available GretelAI symptom-to-diagnosis dataset. Compared to standard baselines, our approach improves accuracy by up to 46.9\%, reduces Brier scores by 74.4\%, and enhances calibration as measured by Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and predictive entropy.

Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current multimodal classification methods suffer from unreliable predictive confidence that tend to rely on partial modalities when estimating confidence. Specifically, we find that the confidence estimated by current models could even increase when some modalities are corrupted. To address the issue, we introduce an intuitive principle for multimodal learning, i.e., the confidence should not increase when one modality is removed. Accordingly, we propose a novel regularization technique, i.e., Calibrating Multimodal Learning (CML) regularization, to calibrate the predictive confidence of previous methods. This technique could be flexibly equipped by existing models and improve the performance in terms of confidence calibration, classification accuracy, and model robustness.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

Following the standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) paradigm, in-context learning (ICL) has become an efficient approach propelled by the recent advancements in large language models (LLMs), yielding promising performance across various tasks in few-shot data setups. However, both paradigms are prone to suffer from the critical problem of overconfidence (i.e., miscalibration), especially in such limited data setups. In this work, we deliver an in-depth analysis of the behavior across different choices of learning methods from the perspective of both performance and calibration, as well as their interplay. Through extensive controlled experiments, we find that simultaneous gains for both task performance and calibration are difficult to achieve, and the problem of miscalibration exists across all learning methods in low-resource scenarios. To address this challenging trade-off between performance and calibration, we then investigate the potential of self-ensembling techniques applied at different modeling stages (e.g., variations of in-context examples or variations in prompts or different ensembling strategies). We justify the feasibility of self-ensembling on SFT in addition to ICL, to make the predictions more calibrated and have comparable or even better performance. Our work sheds light on which learning paradigm to choose and how to enhance both task performance and calibration of LLMs.

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit unwanted and factually incorrect text. In this work, we propose a novel calibration method that can be used to combat hallucinations. We add a special [IDK] ("I don't know") token to the model's vocabulary and introduce an objective function that shifts probability mass to the [IDK] token for incorrect predictions. This approach allows the model to express uncertainty in its output explicitly. We evaluate our proposed method across multiple model architectures and factual downstream tasks. We find that models trained with our method are able to express uncertainty in places where they would previously make mistakes while suffering only a small loss of encoded knowledge. We further perform extensive ablation studies of multiple variations of our approach and provide a detailed analysis of the precision-recall tradeoff of our method.

Camera calibration involves estimating camera parameters to infer geometric features from captured sequences, which is crucial for computer vision and robotics. However, conventional calibration is laborious and requires dedicated collection. Recent efforts show that learning-based solutions have the potential to be used in place of the repeatability works of manual calibrations. Among these solutions, various learning strategies, networks, geometric priors, and datasets have been investigated. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of learning-based camera calibration techniques, by analyzing their strengths and limitations. Our main calibration categories include the standard pinhole camera model, distortion camera model, cross-view model, and cross-sensor model, following the research trend and extended applications. As there is no unified benchmark in this community, we collect a holistic calibration dataset that can serve as a public platform to evaluate the generalization of existing methods. It comprises both synthetic and real-world data, with images and videos captured by different cameras in diverse scenes. Toward the end of this paper, we discuss the challenges and provide further research directions. To our knowledge, this is the first survey for the learning-based camera calibration (spanned 10 years). The summarized methods, datasets, and benchmarks are available and will be regularly updated at https://github.com/KangLiao929/Awesome-Deep-Camera-Calibration.

The bio-inspired event camera has garnered extensive research attention in recent years, owing to its significant potential derived from its high dynamic range and low latency characteristics. Similar to the standard camera, the event camera requires precise intrinsic calibration to facilitate further high-level visual applications, such as pose estimation and mapping. While several calibration methods for event cameras have been proposed, most of them are either (i) engineering-driven, heavily relying on conventional image-based calibration pipelines, or (ii) inconvenient, requiring complex instrumentation. To this end, we propose an accurate and convenient intrinsic calibration method for event cameras, named eKalibr, which builds upon a carefully designed event-based circle grid pattern recognition algorithm. To extract target patterns from events, we perform event-based normal flow estimation to identify potential events generated by circle edges, and cluster them spatially. Subsequently, event clusters associated with the same grid circles are matched and grouped using normal flows, for subsequent time-varying ellipse estimation. Fitted ellipse centers are time-synchronized, for final grid pattern recognition. We conducted extensive experiments to evaluate the performance of eKalibr in terms of pattern extraction and intrinsic calibration. The implementation of eKalibr is open-sourced at (https://github.com/Unsigned-Long/eKalibr) to benefit the research community.

New classes arise frequently in our ever-changing world, e.g., emerging topics in social media and new types of products in e-commerce. A model should recognize new classes and meanwhile maintain discriminability over old classes. Under severe circumstances, only limited novel instances are available to incrementally update the model. The task of recognizing few-shot new classes without forgetting old classes is called few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL). In this work, we propose a new paradigm for FSCIL based on meta-learning by LearnIng Multi-phase Incremental Tasks (LIMIT), which synthesizes fake FSCIL tasks from the base dataset. The data format of fake tasks is consistent with the `real' incremental tasks, and we can build a generalizable feature space for the unseen tasks through meta-learning. Besides, LIMIT also constructs a calibration module based on transformer, which calibrates the old class classifiers and new class prototypes into the same scale and fills in the semantic gap. The calibration module also adaptively contextualizes the instance-specific embedding with a set-to-set function. LIMIT efficiently adapts to new classes and meanwhile resists forgetting over old classes. Experiments on three benchmark datasets (CIFAR100, miniImageNet, and CUB200) and large-scale dataset, i.e., ImageNet ILSVRC2012 validate that LIMIT achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) hold considerable promise for applications in healthcare. However, their deployment in safety-critical settings is hindered by two key limitations: (i) sensitivity to prompt design, and (ii) a tendency to generate incorrect responses with high confidence. As clinicians may rely on a model's stated confidence to gauge the reliability of its predictions, it is especially important that when a model expresses high confidence, it is also highly accurate. We introduce Prompt4Trust, the first reinforcement learning (RL) framework for prompt augmentation targeting confidence calibration in MLLMs. A lightweight LLM is trained to produce context-aware auxiliary prompts that guide a downstream task MLLM to generate responses in which the expressed confidence more accurately reflects predictive accuracy. Unlike conventional calibration techniques, Prompt4Trust specifically prioritizes aspects of calibration most critical for safe and trustworthy clinical decision-making. Beyond improvements driven by this clinically motivated calibration objective, our proposed method also improves task accuracy, achieving state-of-the-art medical visual question answering (VQA) performance on the PMC-VQA benchmark, which is composed of multiple-choice questions spanning diverse medical imaging modalities. Moreover, our framework trained with a small downstream task MLLM showed promising zero-shot generalization to larger MLLMs in our experiments, suggesting the potential for scalable calibration without the associated computational costs. This work demonstrates the potential of automated yet human-aligned prompt engineering for improving the the trustworthiness of MLLMs in safety critical settings. Our codebase can be found at https://github.com/xingbpshen/prompt4trust.

We consider a binary classification problem under group fairness constraints, which can be one of Demographic Parity (DP), Equalized Opportunity (EOp), or Equalized Odds (EO). We propose an explicit characterization of Bayes optimal classifier under the fairness constraints, which turns out to be a simple modification rule of the unconstrained classifier. Namely, we introduce a novel instance-level measure of bias, which we call bias score, and the modification rule is a simple linear rule on top of the finite amount of bias scores.Based on this characterization, we develop a post-hoc approach that allows us to adapt to fairness constraints while maintaining high accuracy. In the case of DP and EOp constraints, the modification rule is thresholding a single bias score, while in the case of EO constraints we are required to fit a linear modification rule with 2 parameters. The method can also be applied for composite group-fairness criteria, such as ones involving several sensitive attributes.

While there has been a growing research interest in developing out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods, there has been comparably little discussion around how these methods should be evaluated. Given their relevance for safe(r) AI, it is important to examine whether the basis for comparing OOD detection methods is consistent with practical needs. In this work, we take a closer look at the go-to metrics for evaluating OOD detection, and question the approach of exclusively reducing OOD detection to a binary classification task with little consideration for the detection threshold. We illustrate the limitations of current metrics (AUROC & its friends) and propose a new metric - Area Under the Threshold Curve (AUTC), which explicitly penalizes poor separation between ID and OOD samples. Scripts and data are available at https://github.com/glhr/beyond-auroc

Fairness in image restoration tasks is the desire to treat different sub-groups of images equally well. Existing definitions of fairness in image restoration are highly restrictive. They consider a reconstruction to be a correct outcome for a group (e.g., women) only if it falls within the group's set of ground truth images (e.g., natural images of women); otherwise, it is considered entirely incorrect. Consequently, such definitions are prone to controversy, as errors in image restoration can manifest in various ways. In this work we offer an alternative approach towards fairness in image restoration, by considering the Group Perceptual Index (GPI), which we define as the statistical distance between the distribution of the group's ground truth images and the distribution of their reconstructions. We assess the fairness of an algorithm by comparing the GPI of different groups, and say that it achieves perfect Perceptual Fairness (PF) if the GPIs of all groups are identical. We motivate and theoretically study our new notion of fairness, draw its connection to previous ones, and demonstrate its utility on state-of-the-art face image super-resolution algorithms.

Structured pruning of large language models (LLMs) offers substantial efficiency improvements by removing entire hidden units, yet current approaches often suffer from significant performance degradation, particularly in zero-shot settings, and necessitate costly recovery techniques such as supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or adapter insertion. To address these critical shortcomings, we introduce NIRVANA, a novel pruning method explicitly designed to balance immediate zero-shot accuracy preservation with robust fine-tuning capability. Leveraging a first-order saliency criterion derived from the Neural Tangent Kernel under Adam optimization dynamics, NIRVANA provides a theoretically grounded pruning strategy that respects essential model training behaviors. To further address the unique challenges posed by structured pruning, NIRVANA incorporates an adaptive sparsity allocation mechanism across layers and modules (attention vs. MLP), which adjusts pruning intensity between modules in a globally balanced manner. Additionally, to mitigate the high sensitivity of pruning decisions to calibration data quality, we propose a simple yet effective KL divergence-based calibration data selection strategy, ensuring more reliable and task-agnostic pruning outcomes. Comprehensive experiments conducted on Llama3, Qwen, and T5 models demonstrate that NIRVANA outperforms existing structured pruning methods under equivalent sparsity constraints, providing a theoretically sound and practical approach to LLM compression. The code is available at https://github.com/iDEA-iSAIL-Lab-UIUC/NIRVANA.

For safety-related applications, it is crucial to produce trustworthy deep neural networks whose prediction is associated with confidence that can represent the likelihood of correctness for subsequent decision-making. Existing dense binary classification models are prone to being over-confident. To improve model calibration, we propose Adaptive Stochastic Label Perturbation (ASLP) which learns a unique label perturbation level for each training image. ASLP employs our proposed Self-Calibrating Binary Cross Entropy (SC-BCE) loss, which unifies label perturbation processes including stochastic approaches (like DisturbLabel), and label smoothing, to correct calibration while maintaining classification rates. ASLP follows Maximum Entropy Inference of classic statistical mechanics to maximise prediction entropy with respect to missing information. It performs this while: (1) preserving classification accuracy on known data as a conservative solution, or (2) specifically improves model calibration degree by minimising the gap between the prediction accuracy and expected confidence of the target training label. Extensive results demonstrate that ASLP can significantly improve calibration degrees of dense binary classification models on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data. The code is available on https://github.com/Carlisle-Liu/ASLP.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as evaluators in lieu of humans. While scalable, their judgments are noisy due to imperfect specificity and sensitivity of LLMs, leading to biased accuracy estimates. Although bias-correction methods exist, they are underutilized in LLM research and typically assume exact knowledge of the model's specificity and sensitivity. Furthermore, in general we only have estimates of these values and it is not well known how to properly construct confidence intervals using only estimates. This work presents a simple plug-in framework that corrects such bias and constructs confidence intervals reflecting uncertainty from both test and calibration dataset, enabling practical and statistically sound LLM-based evaluation. Additionally, to reduce uncertainty in the accuracy estimate, we introduce an adaptive algorithm that efficiently allocates calibration sample sizes.