Daily Papers

The rapid evolution of large language models necessitates robust machine-generated text detection. Existing paradigms typically follow two isolated tracks. Training-free methods rely on global statistical scalars such as perplexity, while training-based methods utilize semantic hidden states. Both approaches exhibit fundamental vulnerabilities in adversarial scenarios. Global scalars act as lossy compressions that obscure local probabilistic burstiness in interleaved texts, whereas pure semantic models overfit to specific fingerprints and remain susceptible to spoofing. To expose these flaws, we introduce MOSAIC, a comprehensive adversarial benchmark comprising 16000 samples across a full-granularity attack spectrum. To address these challenges, we propose NeuroStat, an end-to-end framework bridging the statistical and semantic gap. NeuroStat captures uncompressed token-level probabilistic logits alongside deep semantic hidden states from a single causal language model backbone. We fuse these heterogeneous signals through Macro-State Residual Modulation, which adaptively calibrates local convolutional features using global uncertainty indicators. Orthogonal and contrastive losses further ensure the learning of complementary representations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NeuroStat maintains exceptional robustness on MOSAIC compared to the severe degradation of state-of-the-art methods, establishing a new standard for adversarial text detection. Code and the MOSAIC benchmark are available at https://github.com/TencentBAC/NeuroStat.

Many commercial Large Language Models (LLMs) are often closed-source, limiting developers to prompt tuning for aligning content generation with specific applications. While these models currently do not provide access to token logits, we argue that if such access were available, it would enable more powerful adaptation techniques beyond prompt engineering. In this paper, we propose a token-level probability reweighting framework that, given access to logits and a small amount of task-specific data, can effectively steer black-box LLMs toward application-specific content generation. Our approach views next-token prediction through the lens of supervised classification. We show that aligning black-box LLMs with task-specific data can be formulated as a label noise correction problem, leading to Plugin model -- an autoregressive probability reweighting model that operates solely on logits. We provide theoretical justification for why reweighting logits alone is sufficient for task adaptation. Extensive experiments with multiple datasets, LLMs, and reweighting models demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, advocating for broader access to token logits in closed-source models.

Cross-tokenizer knowledge distillation allows a student model to learn from teachers with incompatible vocabularies. Prior work operates on hidden states or logits; the latter is preferred as a drop-in replacement requiring no auxiliary components. Logit-based methods either use only the correct-token probability, missing the full 'dark knowledge' in the teacher's distribution, or operate on the full output distribution, relying on strict token partitioning and/or unprincipled heuristic ranking. We identify two key shortcomings of full-distribution, logit-based methods: (i) an uncommon-token failure, where critical tokens fall into the unmatched subset (e.g., Llama's 1100 multi-digit numerals under digit-splitting Qwen supervision) and are suppressed during training, reducing GSM8k from 12.89 to 2.56 compared to same-tokenizer KD from a weaker teacher; and (ii) over-conservative matching, where strict 1-to-1 matching excludes near-equivalent tokens across surface forms. These failures require distinct remedies: eliminating the partition when critical tokens are misaligned, and refining it when alignment is reliable. We propose X-Token, an approach with two complementary loss formulations targeting these issues. P-KL removes partitioning and aligns the student's distribution with the teacher's via a sparse projection matrix W (initialized from tokenizer-level string rules) to address the uncommon-token failure. H-KL retains the hybrid form while relaxing matching to align each student token with its top-ranked teacher mapping under W. Both objectives share W and extend naturally to multiple teachers. Empirically, on Llama-3.2-1B, X-Token outperforms the current state of the art GOLD by +3.82 average points with a Qwen3-4B teacher and by +0.5 with a Phi-4-Mini teacher. Further, a two-teacher setup (Phi-4-mini + Llama-3B) improves over single-teacher distillation by +1.3 points.

Large language models (LLMs) typically employ greedy decoding or low-temperature sampling for reasoning tasks, reflecting a perceived trade-off between diversity and accuracy. We challenge this convention by introducing top-nsigma, a novel sampling method that operates directly on pre-softmax logits by leveraging a statistical threshold. Our key insight is that logits naturally separate into a Gaussian-distributed noisy region and a distinct informative region, enabling efficient token filtering without complex probability manipulations. Unlike existing methods (e.g., top-p, min-p) that inadvertently include more noise tokens at higher temperatures, top-nsigma maintains a stable sampling space regardless of temperature scaling. We also provide a theoretical analysis of top-nsigma to better understand its behavior. The extensive experimental results across four reasoning-focused datasets demonstrate that our method not only outperforms existing sampling approaches but also surpasses greedy decoding, while maintaining consistent performance even at high temperatures.

One of the most striking findings in modern research on large language models (LLMs) is that scaling up compute during training leads to better results. However, less attention has been given to the benefits of scaling compute during inference. This survey focuses on these inference-time approaches. We explore three areas under a unified mathematical formalism: token-level generation algorithms, meta-generation algorithms, and efficient generation. Token-level generation algorithms, often called decoding algorithms, operate by sampling a single token at a time or constructing a token-level search space and then selecting an output. These methods typically assume access to a language model's logits, next-token distributions, or probability scores. Meta-generation algorithms work on partial or full sequences, incorporating domain knowledge, enabling backtracking, and integrating external information. Efficient generation methods aim to reduce token costs and improve the speed of generation. Our survey unifies perspectives from three research communities: traditional natural language processing, modern LLMs, and machine learning systems.

On-Policy Distillation (OPD) trains a student model on its own generative trajectories under dense token-level feedback from a stronger teacher, mitigating both the off-policy distribution shift of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and the sparse credit assignment of Reinforcement Learning (RL). However, standard OPD faces two coupled limitations. First, it requires direct access to the teacher's token-level logits, excluding a broad class of capable proprietary models from serving as teachers. Second, the token-level logit signal itself is brittle, depending on a narrow overlap of plausible next tokens between teacher and student, and prone to amplifying degenerate patterns such as repetition loops. In this paper, we introduce OmniOPD, a novel framework that addresses both limitations through a logit-free, chunk-level supervision signal. OmniOPD replaces deterministic logit matching with Monte Carlo rollouts that approximate the teacher's local preferences through a continuous semantic similarity metric over multi-token chunks, and concentrates this supervision via a peak-entropy scheduler that audits the student only at its high-uncertainty reasoning forks. A Dirichlet-Multinomial Bayesian prior and a base-model KL anchor further bound the variance of discrete sampling and prevent policy collapse across unaudited tokens. Across competitive benchmarks, OmniOPD surpasses the standard OPD approach by up to +28.64% on math, confirming that chunk-level semantic verification extracts a more reliable learning signal than token-level logit matching, whose high information density is offset by significant noise and brittleness. Furthermore, when paired with stronger black-box teachers such as Claude-4.5-Haiku and Gemini-2.5-Flash, OmniOPD achieves an additional +9.54% relative on math over its open-weight teacher counterpart, advancing the student past the performance of self-exploratory RL.

We study the problem of determining whether a piece of text has been authored by a human or by a large language model (LLM). Existing state of the art logits-based detectors make use of statistics derived from the log-probability of the observed text evaluated using the distribution function of a given source LLM. However, relying solely on log probabilities can be sub-optimal. In response, we introduce AdaDetectGPT -- a novel classifier that adaptively learns a witness function from training data to enhance the performance of logits-based detectors. We provide statistical guarantees on its true positive rate, false positive rate, true negative rate and false negative rate. Extensive numerical studies show AdaDetectGPT nearly uniformly improves the state-of-the-art method in various combination of datasets and LLMs, and the improvement can reach up to 58%. A python implementation of our method is available at https://github.com/Mamba413/AdaDetectGPT.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have intensified efforts to fuse heterogeneous open-source models into a unified system that inherits their complementary strengths. Existing logit-based fusion methods maintain inference efficiency but treat vocabulary dimensions independently, overlooking semantic dependencies encoded by cross-dimension interactions. These dependencies reflect how token types interact under a model's internal reasoning and are essential for aligning models with diverse generation behaviors. To explicitly model these dependencies, we propose InfiGFusion, the first structure-aware fusion framework with a novel Graph-on-Logits Distillation (GLD) loss. Specifically, we retain the top-k logits per output and aggregate their outer products across sequence positions to form a global co-activation graph, where nodes represent vocabulary channels and edges quantify their joint activations. To ensure scalability and efficiency, we design a sorting-based closed-form approximation that reduces the original O(n^4) cost of Gromov-Wasserstein distance to O(n log n), with provable approximation guarantees. Experiments across multiple fusion settings show that GLD consistently improves fusion quality and stability. InfiGFusion outperforms SOTA models and fusion baselines across 11 benchmarks spanning reasoning, coding, and mathematics. It shows particular strength in complex reasoning tasks, with +35.6 improvement on Multistep Arithmetic and +37.06 on Causal Judgement over SFT, demonstrating superior multi-step and relational inference.

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.

This paper addresses the critical challenge of deriving interpretable confidence scores from generative language models (LLMs) when applied to multi-label content safety classification. While models like LLaMA Guard are effective for identifying unsafe content and its categories, their generative architecture inherently lacks direct class-level probabilities, which hinders model confidence assessment and performance interpretation. This limitation complicates the setting of dynamic thresholds for content moderation and impedes fine-grained error analysis. This research proposes and evaluates three novel token-level probability estimation approaches to bridge this gap. The aim is to enhance model interpretability and accuracy, and evaluate the generalizability of this framework across different instruction-tuned models. Through extensive experimentation on a synthetically generated, rigorously annotated dataset, it is demonstrated that leveraging token logits significantly improves the interpretability and reliability of generative classifiers, enabling more nuanced content safety moderation.

We propose (G)I-DLE, a new approach to constrained decoding that leverages KL divergence minimization to preserve the intrinsic conditional probability distribution of autoregressive language models while excluding undesirable tokens. Unlike conventional methods that naively set banned tokens' logits to -infty, which can distort the conversion from raw logits to posterior probabilities and increase output variance, (G)I-DLE re-normalizes the allowed token probabilities to minimize such distortion. We validate our method on the K2-Eval dataset, specifically designed to assess Korean language fluency, logical reasoning, and cultural appropriateness. Experimental results on Qwen2.5 models (ranging from 1.5B to 14B) demonstrate that G-IDLE not only boosts mean evaluation scores but also substantially reduces the variance of output quality.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for open-ended language generation remains a critical yet underexplored challenge, especially under black-box constraints where internal model signals are inaccessible. In this paper, we introduce Token-Entropy Conformal Prediction (TECP), a novel framework that leverages token-level entropy as a logit-free, reference-free uncertainty measure and integrates it into a split conformal prediction (CP) pipeline to construct prediction sets with formal coverage guarantees. Unlike existing approaches that rely on semantic consistency heuristics or white-box features, TECP directly estimates epistemic uncertainty from the token entropy structure of sampled generations and calibrates uncertainty thresholds via CP quantiles to ensure provable error control. Empirical evaluations across six large language models and two benchmarks (CoQA and TriviaQA) demonstrate that TECP consistently achieves reliable coverage and compact prediction sets, outperforming prior self-consistency-based UQ methods. Our method provides a principled and efficient solution for trustworthy generation in black-box LLM settings.

Recent reasoning Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable problem-solving abilities but often generate long thinking traces whose utility is unclear. Our work aims to improve their efficiency, enabling them to reach high performance without overthinking. First, we analyze the entropy of token probabilities in reasoning traces. Across three models, we observe a consistent U-shaped entropy pattern: high entropy on easy problems despite high accuracy, low entropy on problems with medium difficulty, and high entropy on hard problems reflecting uncertainty. Specifically, we notice 22--25\% entropy reduction from easy to medium difficulty regions, suggesting an {overthinking} phenomenon on easy instances. Building on these insights, we introduce DiffAdapt, a lightweight framework that selects Easy/Normal/Hard inference strategies per question based on their difficulty and reasoning trace entropy. Each inference strategy consists of a fixed prompt, temperature and maximum token length. In contrast to existing efficiency optimization methods, our approach does not fine-tune base LLM but a small probe that classifies LLM's final hidden state, allowing inexpensive adaptation. We comprehensively evaluate our method on five models and eight benchmarks. Our method achieves comparable or improved accuracy while reducing token usage by up to 22.4\%, establishing a practical path toward compute-efficient reasoning.

In recent years, developing compact and efficient large language models (LLMs) has emerged as a thriving area of research. Traditional Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), which relies on singular ground truth labels, often fails to capture token-level dependencies and linguistic diversity. To address these limitations, we propose a logits-based fine-tuning framework that integrates the strengths of supervised learning and knowledge distillation. Our approach constructs enriched training targets by combining teacher logits with ground truth labels, preserving both correctness and linguistic diversity. This ensures more reliable and effective training. We constructed a large-scale 1.2M logits dataset and trained a series of science-focused models. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves significant improvements, with accuracy gains of 18% on Mawps and 22.7% on TabMWP. Across nine widely used mathematical benchmarks, our method consistently outperforms prior SFT models, achieving an average improvement of 7.28%. Codes are available at https://github.com/dvlab-research/Logits-Based-Finetuning.

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth labels. Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. In this work, we first study the relationship between logits and generalization performance from the view of low-density separation assumption. Our findings motivate our proposed method MaNo which (1) applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and (2) takes the L_p norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that MaNo achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.

In large language models (LLMs), each block operates on the residual stream to map input token sequences to output token distributions. However, most of the interpretability literature focuses on internal latent representations, leaving token-space dynamics underexplored. The high dimensionality and categoricity of token distributions hinder their analysis, as standard statistical descriptors are not suitable. We show that the entropy of logit-lens predictions overcomes these issues. In doing so, it provides a per-layer scalar, permutation-invariant metric. We introduce Entropy-Lens to distill the token-space dynamics of the residual stream into a low-dimensional signal. We call this signal the entropy profile. We apply our method to a variety of model sizes and families, showing that (i) entropy profiles uncover token prediction dynamics driven by expansion and pruning strategies; (ii) these dynamics are family-specific and invariant under depth rescaling; (iii) they are characteristic of task type and output format; (iv) these strategies have unequal impact on downstream performance, with the expansion strategy usually being more critical. Ultimately, our findings further enhance our understanding of the residual stream, enabling a granular assessment of how information is processed across model depth.

Despite their widespread use, the mechanisms by which large language models (LLMs) represent and regulate uncertainty in next-token predictions remain largely unexplored. This study investigates two critical components believed to influence this uncertainty: the recently discovered entropy neurons and a new set of components that we term token frequency neurons. Entropy neurons are characterized by an unusually high weight norm and influence the final layer normalization (LayerNorm) scale to effectively scale down the logits. Our work shows that entropy neurons operate by writing onto an unembedding null space, allowing them to impact the residual stream norm with minimal direct effect on the logits themselves. We observe the presence of entropy neurons across a range of models, up to 7 billion parameters. On the other hand, token frequency neurons, which we discover and describe here for the first time, boost or suppress each token's logit proportionally to its log frequency, thereby shifting the output distribution towards or away from the unigram distribution. Finally, we present a detailed case study where entropy neurons actively manage confidence in the setting of induction, i.e. detecting and continuing repeated subsequences.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often expend significant computational resources generating boilerplate responses, such as refusals, simple acknowledgements and casual greetings, which adds unnecessary cost and latency. To address this inefficiency, we propose a simple yet highly effective method for detecting such responses after only a single generation step. We demonstrate that the log-probability distribution of the first generated token serves as a powerful signal for classifying the nature of the entire subsequent response. Our experiments, conducted across a diverse range of small, large, and reasoning-specialized models, show that the first-token log-probability vectors form distinctly separable clusters for different response types. Using a lightweight k-NN classifier, we achieve high accuracy in predicting whether a response will be a substantive answer or a form of boilerplate response, including user-specified refusals. The primary implication is a practical, computationally trivial technique, optimizing LLM inference by enabling early termination or redirection to a smaller model, thereby yielding significant savings in computational cost. This work presents a direct path toward more efficient and sustainable LLM deployment.

Critic-free methods like GRPO reduce memory demands by estimating advantages from multiple rollouts but tend to converge slowly, as critical learning signals are diluted by an abundance of uninformative samples and tokens. To tackle this challenge, we propose the Dynamic Dual-Level Down-Sampling (D^3S) framework that prioritizes the most informative samples and tokens across groups to improve the efficient of policy optimization. D^3S operates along two levels: (1) the sample-level, which selects a subset of rollouts to maximize advantage variance (Var(A)). We theoretically proven that this selection is positively correlated with the upper bound of the policy gradient norms, yielding higher policy gradients. (2) the token-level, which prioritizes tokens with a high product of advantage magnitude and policy entropy (|A_{i,t}|times H_{i,t}), focusing updates on tokens where the policy is both uncertain and impactful. Moreover, to prevent overfitting to high-signal data, D^3S employs a dynamic down-sampling schedule inspired by curriculum learning. This schedule starts with aggressive down-sampling to accelerate early learning and gradually relaxes to promote robust generalization. Extensive experiments on Qwen2.5 and Llama3.1 demonstrate that integrating D^3S into advanced RL algorithms achieves state-of-the-art performance and generalization while requiring fewer samples and tokens across diverse reasoning benchmarks. Our code is added in the supplementary materials and will be made publicly available.

Speculative decoding is an effective and lossless approach for accelerating LLM inference. However, existing widely adopted model-based draft designs, such as EAGLE3, improve accuracy at the cost of multi-step autoregressive inference, resulting in high drafting latency and ultimately rendering the drafting stage itself a performance bottleneck. Inspired by diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs), we propose DART, which leverages parallel generation to reduce drafting latency. DART predicts logits for multiple future masked positions in parallel within a single forward pass based on hidden states of the target model, thereby eliminating autoregressive rollouts in the draft model while preserving a lightweight design. Based on these parallel logit predictions, we further introduce an efficient tree pruning algorithm that constructs high-quality draft token trees with N-gram-enforced semantic continuity. DART substantially reduces draft-stage overhead while preserving high draft accuracy, leading to significantly improved end-to-end decoding speed. Experimental results demonstrate that DART achieves a 2.03x--3.44x wall-clock time speedup across multiple datasets, surpassing EAGLE3 by 30% on average and offering a practical speculative decoding framework. Code is released at https://github.com/fvliang/DART.

Generative recommender systems have recently attracted attention by formulating next-item prediction as an autoregressive sequence generation task. However, most existing methods optimize standard next-token likelihood and implicitly treat all tokens as equally informative, which is misaligned with semantic-ID-based generation. Accordingly, we propose two complementary information-gain-based token-weighting strategies tailored to generative recommendation with semantic IDs. Front-Greater Weighting captures conditional semantic information gain by prioritizing early tokens that most effectively reduce candidate-item uncertainty given their prefixes and encode coarse semantics. Frequency Weighting models marginal information gain under long-tailed item and token distributions, upweighting rare tokens to counteract popularity bias. Beyond individual strategies, we introduce a multi-target learning framework with curriculum learning that jointly optimizes the two token-weighted objectives alongside standard likelihood, enabling stable optimization and adaptive emphasis across training stages. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines and existing token-weighting approaches, with improved robustness, strong generalization across different semantic-ID constructions, and substantial gains on both head and tail items. Code is available at https://github.com/CHIUWEINING/Token-Weighted-Multi-Target-Learning-for-Generative-Recommenders-with-Curriculum-Learning.

Traditional knowledge distillation focuses on aligning the student's predicted probabilities with both ground-truth labels and the teacher's predicted probabilities. However, the transition to predicted probabilities from logits would obscure certain indispensable information. To address this issue, it is intuitive to additionally introduce a logit-level loss function as a supplement to the widely used probability-level loss function, for exploiting the latent information of logits. Unfortunately, we empirically find that the amalgamation of the newly introduced logit-level loss and the previous probability-level loss will lead to performance degeneration, even trailing behind the performance of employing either loss in isolation. We attribute this phenomenon to the collapse of the classification head, which is verified by our theoretical analysis based on the neural collapse theory. Specifically, the gradients of the two loss functions exhibit contradictions in the linear classifier yet display no such conflict within the backbone. Drawing from the theoretical analysis, we propose a novel method called dual-head knowledge distillation, which partitions the linear classifier into two classification heads responsible for different losses, thereby preserving the beneficial effects of both losses on the backbone while eliminating adverse influences on the classification head. Extensive experiments validate that our method can effectively exploit the information inside the logits and achieve superior performance against state-of-the-art counterparts.

Prompt sensitivity, which refers to how strongly the output of a large language model (LLM) depends on the exact wording of its input prompt, raises concerns among users about the LLM's stability and reliability. In this work, we consider LLMs as multivariate functions and perform a first-order Taylor expansion, thereby analyzing the relationship between meaning-preserving prompts, their gradients, and the log probabilities of the model's next token. We derive an upper bound on the difference between log probabilities using the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. We show that LLMs do not internally cluster similar inputs like smaller neural networks do, but instead disperse them. This dispersing behavior leads to an excessively high upper bound on the difference of log probabilities between two meaning-preserving prompts, making it difficult to effectively reduce to 0. In our analysis, we also show which types of meaning-preserving prompt variants are more likely to introduce prompt sensitivity risks in LLMs. In addition, we demonstrate that the upper bound is strongly correlated with an existing prompt sensitivity metric, PromptSensiScore. Moreover, by analyzing the logit variance, we find that prompt templates typically exert a greater influence on logits than the questions themselves. Overall, our results provide a general interpretation for why current LLMs can be highly sensitive to prompts with the same meaning, offering crucial evidence for understanding the prompt sensitivity of LLMs. Code for experiments is available at https://github.com/ku-nlp/Understanding_the_Prompt_Sensitivity.

Large reasoning models have recently demonstrated strong performance on complex tasks that require long chain-of-thought reasoning, through supervised fine-tuning on large-scale and high-quality datasets. To construct such datasets, existing pipelines generate long reasoning data from more capable Large Language Models (LLMs) and apply manually heuristic or naturalness-based selection methods to filter high-quality samples. Despite the proven effectiveness of naturalness-based data selection, which ranks data by the average log probability assigned by LLMs, our analysis shows that, when applied to LLM reasoning datasets, it systematically prefers samples with longer reasoning steps (i.e., more tokens per step) rather than higher-quality ones, a phenomenon we term step length confounding. Through quantitative analysis, we attribute this phenomenon to low-probability first tokens in reasoning steps; longer steps dilute their influence, thereby inflating the average log probabilities. To address this issue, we propose two variant methods: ASLEC-DROP, which drops first-token probabilities when computing average log probability, and ASLEC-CASL, which applies a causal debiasing regression to remove the first tokens' confounding effect. Experiments across four LLMs and five evaluation benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in mitigating the step length confounding problem.

Network pruning, which removes less important parameters or architectures, is often expected to improve efficiency while preserving performance. However, this expectation does not consistently hold across language tasks: pruned models can perform well on non-generative tasks but frequently fail in generative settings. To understand this discrepancy, we analyze network pruning from a representation-hierarchy perspective, decomposing the internal computation of language models into three sequential spaces: embedding (hidden representations), logit (pre-softmax outputs), and probability (post-softmax distributions). We find that representations in the embedding and logit spaces are largely robust to pruning-induced perturbations. However, the nonlinear transformation from logits to probabilities amplifies these deviations, which accumulate across time steps and lead to substantial degradation during generation. In contrast, the stability of the categorical-token probability subspace, together with the robustness of the embedding space, supports the effectiveness of pruning for non-generative tasks such as retrieval and multiple-choice selection. Our analysis disentangles the effects of pruning across tasks and provides practical guidance for its application. Code is available at https://github.com/CASE-Lab-UMD/Pruning-on-Representations

Recent advances have demonstrated that integrating reinforcement learning with rule-based rewards can significantly enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models, even without supervised fine-tuning. However, prevalent reinforcement learning algorithms such as GRPO and its variants like DAPO, suffer from a coarse granularity issue when computing the advantage. Specifically, they compute rollout-level advantages that assign identical values to every token within a sequence, failing to capture token-specific contributions and hindering effective learning. To address this limitation, we propose Key-token Advantage Estimation (KTAE) - a novel algorithm that estimates fine-grained, token-level advantages without introducing additional models. KTAE leverages the correctness of sampled rollouts and applies statistical analysis to quantify the importance of individual tokens within a sequence to the final outcome. This quantified token-level importance is then combined with the rollout-level advantage to obtain a more fine-grained token-level advantage estimation. Empirical results show that models trained with GRPO+KTAE and DAPO+KTAE outperform baseline methods across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Notably, they achieve higher accuracy with shorter responses and even surpass R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B using the same base model.

Generative Language Models (GLMs) have shown impressive performance in tasks such as text generation, understanding, and reasoning. However, the large model size poses challenges for practical deployment. To solve this problem, Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) has become increasingly popular. However, current QAT methods for generative models have resulted in a noticeable loss of accuracy. To counteract this issue, we propose a novel knowledge distillation method specifically designed for GLMs. Our method, called token-scaled logit distillation, prevents overfitting and provides superior learning from the teacher model and ground truth. This research marks the first evaluation of ternary weight quantization-aware training of large-scale GLMs with less than 1.0 degradation in perplexity and no loss of accuracy in a reasoning task.

Training modern large language models (LLMs) has become a veritable smorgasbord of algorithms and datasets designed to elicit particular behaviors, making it critical to develop techniques to understand the effects of datasets on the model's properties. This is exacerbated by recent experiments that show datasets can transmit signals that are not directly observable from individual datapoints, posing a conceptual challenge for dataset-centric understandings of LLM training and suggesting a missing fundamental account of such phenomena. Towards understanding such effects, inspired by recent work on the linear structure of LLMs, we uncover a general mechanism through which hidden subtexts can arise in generic datasets. We introduce Logit-Linear-Selection (LLS), a method that prescribes how to select subsets of a generic preference dataset to elicit a wide range of hidden effects. We apply LLS to discover subsets of real-world datasets so that models trained on them exhibit behaviors ranging from having specific preferences, to responding to prompts in a different language not present in the dataset, to taking on a different persona. Crucially, the effect persists for the selected subset, across models with varying architectures, supporting its generality and universality.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is a fundamental post-training strategy to align Large Language Models (LLMs) with human intent. However, traditional SFT often ignores the one-to-many nature of language by forcing alignment with a single reference answer, leading to the model overfitting to non-core expressions. Although our empirical analysis suggests that introducing multiple reference answers can mitigate this issue, the prohibitive data and computational costs necessitate a strategic shift: prioritizing the mitigation of single-reference overfitting over the costly pursuit of answer diversity. To achieve this, we reveal the intrinsic connection between token probability and semantic importance: high-probability tokens carry the core logical framework, while low-probability tokens are mostly replaceable expressions. Based on this insight, we propose ProFit, which selectively masks low-probability tokens to prevent surface-level overfitting. Extensive experiments confirm that ProFit consistently outperforms traditional SFT baselines on general reasoning and mathematical benchmarks.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) of several billion parameters can be impractical in most industrial use cases due to constraints such as cost, latency limitations, and hardware accessibility. Knowledge distillation (KD) offers a solution by compressing knowledge from resource-intensive large models to smaller ones. Various strategies exist, some relying on the text generated by the teacher model and optionally utilizing his logits to enhance learning. However, these methods based on logits often require both teacher and student models to share the same tokenizer, limiting their applicability across different LLM families. In this paper, we introduce Universal Logit Distillation (ULD) loss, grounded in optimal transport, to address this limitation. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of ULD loss in enabling distillation across models with different architectures and tokenizers, paving the way to a more widespread use of distillation techniques.

Estimating the difficulty of input questions as perceived by large language models (LLMs) is essential for accurate performance evaluation and adaptive inference. Existing methods typically rely on repeated response sampling, auxiliary models, or fine-tuning the target model itself, which may incur substantial computational costs or compromise generality. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for difficulty estimation that leverages only the hidden representations produced by the target LLM. We model the token-level generation process as a Markov chain and define a value function to estimate the expected output quality given any hidden state. This allows for efficient and accurate difficulty estimation based solely on the initial hidden state, without generating any output tokens. Extensive experiments across both textual and multimodal tasks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing baselines in difficulty estimation. Moreover, we apply our difficulty estimates to guide adaptive reasoning strategies, including Self-Consistency, Best-of-N, and Self-Refine, achieving higher inference efficiency with fewer generated tokens.

Claim-level Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to mitigate the lack of reliability in Large Language Models (LLMs). We introduce MUCH, the first claim-level UQ benchmark designed for fair and reproducible evaluation of future methods under realistic conditions. It includes 4,873 samples across four European languages (English, French, Spanish, and German) and four instruction-tuned open-weight LLMs. Unlike prior claim-level benchmarks, we release 24 generation logits per token, facilitating the development of future white-box methods without re-generating data. Moreover, in contrast to previous benchmarks that rely on manual or LLM-based segmentation, we propose a new deterministic algorithm capable of segmenting claims using as little as 0.2% of the LLM generation time. This makes our segmentation approach suitable for real-time monitoring of LLM outputs, ensuring that MUCH evaluates UQ methods under realistic deployment constraints. Finally, our evaluations show that current methods still have substantial room for improvement in both performance and efficiency.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a central paradigm for improving reasoning and code generation in large language models, and GRPO-style training is widely adopted for its simplicity and effectiveness. However, an important design choice remains underexplored: how token-level policy gradient terms are aggregated within each sampled group. Standard GRPO uses sequence aggregation, while recent work has advocated token aggregation as a better alternative. We show that these two rules induce different optimization biases: token aggregation introduces sign-length coupling, while sequence aggregation implicitly downweights longer responses through sequence-level equal weighting. To address this tension, we propose Balanced Aggregation (BA), a simple drop-in replacement that computes token-level means separately within the positive and negative subsets and then combines them with sequence-count-based weights. Experiments with Qwen2.5-Math-7B and Qwen3-1.7B on DAPO-17k and Polaris, evaluated on six reasoning and coding benchmarks, show that BA consistently improves training stability and final performance over standard token and sequence aggregation. Our analysis further shows that the relative effectiveness of token and sequence aggregation is largely governed by response-length variation and the positive-negative length gap, highlighting aggregation as a critical design dimension in GRPO-style RLVR.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a cornerstone for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), with recent innovations such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) demonstrating exceptional effectiveness. In this study, we identify a critical yet underexplored issue in RL training: low-probability tokens disproportionately influence model updates due to their large gradient magnitudes. This dominance hinders the effective learning of high-probability tokens, whose gradients are essential for LLMs' performance but are substantially suppressed. To mitigate this interference, we propose two novel methods: Advantage Reweighting and Low-Probability Token Isolation (Lopti), both of which effectively attenuate gradients from low-probability tokens while emphasizing parameter updates driven by high-probability tokens. Our approaches promote balanced updates across tokens with varying probabilities, thereby enhancing the efficiency of RL training. Experimental results demonstrate that they substantially improve the performance of GRPO-trained LLMs, achieving up to a 46.2% improvement in K&K Logic Puzzle reasoning tasks. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/zhyang2226/AR-Lopti.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically personalized via prompt engineering or parameter-efficient fine-tuning such as LoRA. However, writing style can be difficult to distill into a single prompt, and LoRA fine-tuning requires computationally intensive training and infrastructure. We investigate a possible lightweight alternative: steering a frozen LLM with n-gram style priors injected in logit space at decoding time. We train an n-gram model on stylistically distinct corpora -- including Don Quixote, CNN/DailyMail news headlines, and arXiv abstracts -- constructing an interpolated 1-to-3-gram prior over next-token probabilities. During generation we modify the LLM's logits by adding a weighted sum of style log-probabilities from each n-gram order that matches the current context, scaled by a control parameter lambda in [0, 1]. We sweep lambda and style corpora and report style perplexity under the n-gram model, base-model perplexity as a proxy for fluency, Jensen-Shannon (JS) divergence between the original and steered token distributions, and token-overlap statistics. On TinyLlama-1.1B we identify a single narrow regime (for the Don Quixote corpus at lambda=0.1) where style perplexity improves by 24.7% and base-model perplexity improves by 51.4% relative to the frozen model. Outside this regime, and for multi-author corpora such as CNN/DailyMail and arXiv abstracts, even small nonzero lambda values generally result in worse style and fluency, and larger lambda values lead to collapse with extreme perplexities and incoherent text. Logit-space injection of n-gram style priors provides lightweight, tunable style control, but it is fragile: it operates effectively only within a narrow range of low lambda values and is consistently outperformed by prompting and LoRA.

We investigate how large language models perform latent multi-hop reasoning in prompts like "Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart's mother's spouse is". To analyze this process, we introduce logit flow, an interpretability method that traces how logits propagate across layers and positions toward the final prediction. Using logit flow, we identify four distinct stages in single-hop knowledge prediction: (A) entity subject enrichment, (B) entity attribute extraction, (C) relation subject enrichment, and (D) relation attribute extraction. Extending this analysis to multi-hop reasoning, we find that failures often stem from the relation attribute extraction stage, where conflicting logits reduce prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose back attention, a novel mechanism that enables lower layers to leverage higher-layer hidden states from different positions during attention computation. With back attention, a 1-layer transformer achieves the performance of a 2-layer transformer. Applied to four LLMs, back attention improves accuracy on five reasoning datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing latent multi-hop reasoning ability.

Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve excellent performance in natural language reasoning tasks through pre-training on vast unstructured text, enabling them to understand the logic in natural language and generate logic-consistent responses. However, the representational differences between unstructured and structured knowledge make LLMs inherently struggle to maintain logic consistency, leading to Logic Drift challenges in structured knowledge reasoning tasks such as Knowledge Graph Question Answering (KGQA). Existing methods address this limitation by designing complex workflows embedded in prompts to guide LLM reasoning. Nevertheless, these approaches only provide input-level guidance and fail to fundamentally address the Logic Drift in LLM outputs. Additionally, their inflexible reasoning workflows cannot adapt to different tasks and knowledge graphs. To enhance LLMs' logic consistency in structured knowledge reasoning, we specifically target the logits output from the autoregressive generation process. We propose the Logits-to-Logic framework, which incorporates logits strengthening and logits filtering as core modules to correct logical defects in LLM outputs. Extensive experiments show that our approach significantly improves LLMs' logic consistency in structured knowledge reasoning and achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple KGQA benchmarks.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for ensuring the reliability of deep learning models in open-world applications. While post-hoc methods are favored for their efficiency and ease of deployment, existing approaches often underexploit the rich information embedded in the model's logits space. In this paper, we propose LogitGap, a novel post-hoc OOD detection method that explicitly exploits the relationship between the maximum logit and the remaining logits to enhance the separability between in-distribution (ID) and OOD samples. To further improve its effectiveness, we refine LogitGap by focusing on a more compact and informative subset of the logit space. Specifically, we introduce a training-free strategy that automatically identifies the most informative logits for scoring. We provide both theoretical analysis and empirical evidence to validate the effectiveness of our approach. Extensive experiments on both vision-language and vision-only models demonstrate that LogitGap consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse OOD detection scenarios and benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/GIT-LJc/LogitGap.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Large Language Models (LLMs) often suffers from training collapse in long-horizon tasks due to exploding gradient variance. To mitigate this, a baseline is commonly introduced for advantage computation; however, traditional value models remain difficult to optimize, and standard group-based baselines overlook sequence heterogeneity. Although classic optimal baseline theory can achieve global variance reduction, it neglects token heterogeneity and requires prohibitive gradient-based computation. In this work, we derive the Optimal Token Baseline (OTB) from first principles, proving that gradient updates should be weighted inversely to their cumulative gradient norm. To ensure efficiency, we propose the Logit-Gradient Proxy that approximates the gradient norm using only forward-pass probabilities. Our method achieves training stability and matches the performance of large group sizes (N=32) with only N=4, reducing token consumption by over 65% across single-turn and tool-integrated reasoning tasks.

In modern large language models (LLMs), LLM alignment is of crucial importance and is typically achieved through methods such as reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) and direct preference optimization (DPO). However, in most existing methods for LLM alignment, all tokens in the response are optimized using a sparse, response-level reward or preference annotation. The ignorance of token-level rewards may erroneously punish high-quality tokens or encourage low-quality tokens, resulting in suboptimal performance and slow convergence speed. To address this issue, we propose AlignDistil, an RLHF-equivalent distillation method for token-level reward optimization. Specifically, we introduce the reward learned by DPO into the RLHF objective and theoretically prove the equivalence between this objective and a token-level distillation process, where the teacher distribution linearly combines the logits from the DPO model and a reference model. On this basis, we further bridge the accuracy gap between the reward from the DPO model and the pure reward model, by building a contrastive DPO reward with a normal and a reverse DPO model. Moreover, to avoid under- and over-optimization on different tokens, we design a token adaptive logit extrapolation mechanism to construct an appropriate teacher distribution for each token. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our AlignDistil over existing methods and showcase fast convergence due to its token-level distributional reward optimization.

Neural text generation is a key tool in natural language applications, but it is well known there are major problems at its core. In particular, standard likelihood training and decoding leads to dull and repetitive outputs. While some post-hoc fixes have been proposed, in particular top-k and nucleus sampling, they do not address the fact that the token-level probabilities predicted by the model are poor. In this paper we show that the likelihood objective itself is at fault, resulting in a model that assigns too much probability to sequences containing repeats and frequent words, unlike those from the human training distribution. We propose a new objective, unlikelihood training, which forces unlikely generations to be assigned lower probability by the model. We show that both token and sequence level unlikelihood training give less repetitive, less dull text while maintaining perplexity, giving superior generations using standard greedy or beam search. According to human evaluations, our approach with standard beam search also outperforms the currently popular decoding methods of nucleus sampling or beam blocking, thus providing a strong alternative to existing techniques.

In this paper we introduce token time continuous diffusion (TTCD), a new diffusion language model which (a) operates in continuous space, deterministically mapping Gaussian noise to a final token canvas with no further sampling, and crucially (b) incorporates a new notion of per-token times, with some tokens proceeding from noise to token at a faster rate than others. Continuous space modeling helps TTCD avoid the parallel sampling of multiple tokens, which is a key source of inaccuracy at high speedups for models that iterate purely in discrete space. The notion of per-token times helps TTCD to better model conditional generation, allows for more sure tokens to proceed at a faster rate, and allows for differentiated inter-token influences during refinement. TTCD outperforms discrete models at high speedups. We train a 160M parameter TTCD model on OpenWebText, and then self-distill it; we find that at high speedups we are comparable in unconditional generation quality, and outperform in conditional generation, several existing models of similar size trained, on the same data, and self-distilled. We achieve similar gains in Sudoku solving as well.

With the increasing numbers of publicly available models, there are probably pretrained, online models for most tasks users require. However, current model search methods are rudimentary, essentially a text-based search in the documentation, thus users cannot find the relevant models. This paper presents ProbeLog, a method for retrieving classification models that can recognize a target concept, such as "Dog", without access to model metadata or training data. Differently from previous probing methods, ProbeLog computes a descriptor for each output dimension (logit) of each model, by observing its responses on a fixed set of inputs (probes). Our method supports both logit-based retrieval ("find more logits like this") and zero-shot, text-based retrieval ("find all logits corresponding to dogs"). As probing-based representations require multiple costly feedforward passes through the model, we develop a method, based on collaborative filtering, that reduces the cost of encoding repositories by 3x. We demonstrate that ProbeLog achieves high retrieval accuracy, both in real-world and fine-grained search tasks and is scalable to full-size repositories.

Recent advancements in reinforcement learning from human feedback have shown that utilizing fine-grained token-level reward models can substantially enhance the performance of Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) in aligning large language models. However, it is challenging to leverage such token-level reward as guidance for Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), since DPO is formulated as a sequence-level bandit problem. To address this challenge, this work decomposes the sequence-level PPO into a sequence of token-level proximal policy optimization problems and then frames the problem of token-level PPO with token-level reward guidance, from which closed-form optimal token-level policy and the corresponding token-level reward can be derived. Using the obtained reward and Bradley-Terry model, this work establishes a framework of computable loss functions with token-level reward guidance for DPO, and proposes a practical reward guidance based on the induced DPO reward. This formulation enables different tokens to exhibit varying degrees of deviation from reference policy based on their respective rewards. Experiment results demonstrate that our method achieves substantial performance improvements over DPO, with win rate gains of up to 7.5 points on MT-Bench, 6.2 points on AlpacaEval 2, and 4.3 points on Arena-Hard. Code is available at https://github.com/dvlab-research/TGDPO.

Unlearning in large language models (LLMs) has emerged as a promising safeguard against adversarial behaviors. When the forgetting loss is applied uniformly without considering token-level semantic importance, model utility can be unnecessarily degraded. Recent studies have explored token-wise loss regularizers that prioritize informative tokens, but largely rely on ground-truth confidence or external linguistic parsers, which limits their ability to capture contextual information or the model's overall predictive state. Intuitively, function words like "the" primarily serve syntactic roles and are highly predictable with little ambiguity, but informative words admit multiple plausible alternatives with greater uncertainty. Based on this intuition, we propose Entropy-guided Token Weighting (ETW), a token-level unlearning regularizer that uses entropy of the predictive distribution as a proxy for token informativeness. We demonstrate that informative tokens tend to have higher entropy, whereas structural tokens tend to have lower entropy. This behavior enables ETW to achieve more effective unlearning while better preserving model utility than existing token-level approaches.

Large language models (LLMs) reach high accuracy in mathematical reasoning, but individual traces on the same problem diverge; some arrive at the correct answer while others fail. Prior work analyzes failure at the step, chunk, or sentence level, or at tokens where failure has already occurred. Neither identifies the precise token that triggers the shift toward failure. We introduce the cliff token, a token where the token-wise potential drops significantly under an adaptive threshold that scales with the local token-wise potential, based on a one-sided two-proportion z-test. Across seven models and three mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM1K, MATH500, AIME 2025), cliff tokens act as failure triggers; deleting the first cliff token and resampling recovers pass@64 to 1.0, while keeping it limits recovery to between 0.71 and 1.00. We further introduce a cliff taxonomy of deterministic, uncertain, and sampled-off cliffs, defined by greedy choice and token entropy. Each type has distinct probabilistic characteristics, and the taxonomy generalizes across model scales. Finally, we validate the taxonomy via single-token preference optimization at cliff positions (Cliff-DPO). Trained on GSM8K, Cliff-DPO improves accuracy across benchmarks by up to +6.6. Optimizing at uncertain and sampled-off cliffs improves reasoning, while deterministic cliffs do not.

Despite its simplicity and efficacy, the high token expenditure of self-consistency can limit its practical utility. Here we investigate if self-consistency can be made more token-efficient for long chain-of-thought reasoning tasks, while preserving its parallelism, through early hypothesis pruning. Concretely, we generate all solutions in parallel, but periodically prune intermediate hypotheses that are deemed unnecessary based on two lightweight indicators: (a) the model's own confidence in individual hypotheses, and (b) lexical coverage of all current hypotheses by candidate subsets that are under consideration for continued retention. We design a fast weighted set cover algorithm that utilizes the two indicators; our evaluation of five LLMs on three math benchmarks shows that this method can improve token efficiency for all models, by 10-35% in many cases.

We introduce DeepProbLog, a probabilistic logic programming language that incorporates deep learning by means of neural predicates. We show how existing inference and learning techniques can be adapted for the new language. Our experiments demonstrate that DeepProbLog supports both symbolic and subsymbolic representations and inference, 1) program induction, 2) probabilistic (logic) programming, and 3) (deep) learning from examples. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to propose a framework where general-purpose neural networks and expressive probabilistic-logical modeling and reasoning are integrated in a way that exploits the full expressiveness and strengths of both worlds and can be trained end-to-end based on examples.

Representing continuous time is a critical and under-explored challenge in modeling temporal event sequences with large language models (LLMs). Various strategies like byte-level representations or calendar tokens have been proposed. However, the optimal approach remains unclear, especially given the diverse statistical distributions of real-world event data, which range from smooth log-normal to discrete, spiky patterns. This paper presents the first empirical study of temporal tokenization for event sequences, comparing distinct encoding strategies: naive numeric strings, high-precision byte-level representations, human-semantic calendar tokens, classic uniform binning, and adaptive residual scalar quantization. We evaluate these strategies by fine-tuning LLMs on real-world datasets that exemplify these diverse distributions. Our analysis reveals that no single strategy is universally superior; instead, prediction performance depends heavily on aligning the tokenizer with the data's statistical properties, with log-based strategies excelling on skewed distributions and human-centric formats proving robust for mixed modalities.

Reasoning distillation has emerged as an efficient and powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, reasoning distillation may inadvertently cause benchmark contamination, where evaluation data included in distillation datasets can inflate performance metrics of distilled models. In this work, we formally define the task of distillation data detection, which is uniquely challenging due to the partial availability of distillation data. Then, we propose a novel and effective method Token Probability Deviation (TBD), which leverages the probability patterns of the generated output tokens. Our method is motivated by the analysis that distilled models tend to generate near-deterministic tokens for seen questions, while producing more low-probability tokens for unseen questions. Our key idea behind TBD is to quantify how far the generated tokens' probabilities deviate from a high reference probability. In effect, our method achieves competitive detection performance by producing lower scores for seen questions than for unseen questions. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, achieving an AUC of 0.918 and a TPR@1% FPR of 0.470 on the S1 dataset.

Various XAI attribution methods have been recently proposed for the transformer architecture, allowing for insights into the decision-making process of large language models by assigning importance scores to input tokens and intermediate representations. One class of methods that seems very promising in this direction includes decomposition-based approaches, i.e., XAI-methods that redistribute the model's prediction logit through the network, as this value is directly related to the prediction. In the previous literature we note though that two prominent methods of this category, namely ALTI-Logit and LRP, have not yet been analyzed in juxtaposition and hence we propose to close this gap by conducting a careful quantitative evaluation w.r.t. ground truth annotations on a subject-verb agreement task, as well as various qualitative inspections, using BERT, GPT-2 and LLaMA-3 as a testbed. Along the way we compare and extend the ALTI-Logit and LRP methods, including the recently proposed AttnLRP variant, from an algorithmic and implementation perspective. We further incorporate in our benchmark two widely-used gradient-based attribution techniques. Finally, we make our carefullly constructed benchmark dataset for evaluating attributions on language models, as well as our code, publicly available in order to foster evaluation of XAI-methods on a well-defined common ground.

Entropy-based pruning has been proposed as an effective method for compressing Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning with negligible accuracy loss. We test the robustness of low- and high-entropy CoT step selection methods across various models and reasoning tasks, showing that entropy offers no advantage over random pruning in any evaluated setting. Moving from sentences to tokens, we then show that retaining low-entropy tokens seems effective only on mathematical benchmarks. We find this is due to the inherently low-entropy nature of numeric tokens, which also convey semantic content in such problems. Finally, we demonstrate that patching a subset of a few CoT tokens with their original activations recovers near-perfect full-trace performance, providing causal evidence that task information is not concentrated in a small set of CoT tokens identifiable by heuristics, but rather distributed across the full reasoning chain.

In the classical Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) framework, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is employed to learn from sparse, sentence-level rewards -- a challenging scenario in traditional deep reinforcement learning. Despite the great successes of PPO in the alignment of state-of-the-art closed-source large language models (LLMs), its open-source implementation is still largely sub-optimal, as widely reported by numerous research studies. To address these issues, we introduce a framework that models RLHF problems as a Markov decision process (MDP), enabling the capture of fine-grained token-wise information. Furthermore, we provide theoretical insights that demonstrate the superiority of our MDP framework over the previous sentence-level bandit formulation. Under this framework, we introduce an algorithm, dubbed as Reinforced Token Optimization (RTO), which learns the token-wise reward function from preference data and performs policy optimization based on this learned token-wise reward signal. Theoretically, RTO is proven to have the capability of finding the near-optimal policy sample-efficiently. For its practical implementation, RTO innovatively integrates Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and PPO. DPO, originally derived from sparse sentence rewards, surprisingly provides us with a token-wise characterization of response quality, which is seamlessly incorporated into our subsequent PPO training stage. Extensive real-world alignment experiments verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

Masked language models (MLM) do not explicitly define a distribution over language, i.e., they are not language models per se. However, recent work has implicitly treated them as such for the purposes of generation and scoring. This paper studies methods for deriving explicit joint distributions from MLMs, focusing on distributions over two tokens, which makes it possible to calculate exact distributional properties. We find that an approach based on identifying joints whose conditionals are closest to those of the MLM works well and outperforms existing Markov random field-based approaches. We further find that this derived model's conditionals can even occasionally outperform the original MLM's conditionals.

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring intermediate steps that might dramatically impact the outcome. We hypothesize that there exist key forking tokens, such that re-sampling the system at those specific tokens, but not others, leads to very different outcomes. To test this empirically, we develop a novel approach to representing uncertainty dynamics across individual tokens of text generation, and applying statistical models to test our hypothesis. Our approach is highly flexible: it can be applied to any dataset and any LLM, without fine tuning or accessing model weights. We use our method to analyze LLM responses on 7 different tasks across 4 domains, spanning a wide range of typical use cases. We find many examples of forking tokens, including surprising ones such as punctuation marks, suggesting that LLMs are often just a single token away from saying something very different.

Unsupervised constituency parsers organize phrases within a sentence into a tree-shaped syntactic constituent structure that reflects the organization of sentence semantics. However, the traditional objective of maximizing sentence log-likelihood (LL) does not explicitly account for the close relationship between the constituent structure and the semantics, resulting in a weak correlation between LL values and parsing accuracy. In this paper, we introduce a novel objective for training unsupervised parsers: maximizing the information between constituent structures and sentence semantics (SemInfo). We introduce a bag-of-substrings model to represent the semantics and apply the probability-weighted information metric to estimate the SemInfo. Additionally, we develop a Tree Conditional Random Field (TreeCRF)-based model to apply the SemInfo maximization objective to Probabilistic Context-Free Grammar (PCFG) induction, the state-of-the-art method for unsupervised constituency parsing. Experiments demonstrate that SemInfo correlates more strongly with parsing accuracy than LL. Our algorithm significantly enhances parsing accuracy by an average of 7.85 points across five PCFG variants and in four languages, achieving new state-of-the-art results in three of the four languages.

Large language models (LLMs) owe much of their stellar performance to expansive input contexts, yet such verbosity inflates monetary costs, carbon footprint, and inference-time latency. Much of this overhead manifests from the redundant low-utility tokens present in typical prompts, as only a fraction of tokens typically carries the majority of the semantic weight. We address this inefficiency by introducing FrugalPrompt, a novel prompt compression framework for LLMs, which retains only the most semantically significant tokens. Leveraging two state-of-the-art token attribution methods, GlobEnc and DecompX, we assign salience scores to every token in an input sequence, rank them to preserve the top-k% tokens in their original order, and obtain a sparse frugalized prompt. We evaluate the approach across four NLP tasks: Sentiment Analysis, Commonsense QA, Summarization, and Mathematical Reasoning, using a suite of frontier LLMs. For the first three tasks, a 20% prompt reduction incurs only a marginal loss in task performance, demonstrating that contemporary LLMs can reconstruct elided context from high-salience cues. In contrast, performance on mathematical reasoning deteriorates sharply, reflecting a stronger dependence on complete token continuity. Further analysis with bottom-k% and random-k% tokens reveals asymmetric performance patterns that may suggest potential task contamination effects, wherein models may resort to shallow memorized patterns from pretraining exposure for conventional NLP tasks. We posit that our work contributes to a more nuanced understanding of LLM behavior in performance-efficiency trade-offs, and delineate the boundary between tasks tolerant to contextual sparsity and those requiring exhaustive context. Our source code and models are available at: https://github.com/Starscream-11813/Frugal-ICL.

Human reasoning often involves working over limited information to arrive at probabilistic conclusions. In its simplest form, this involves making an inference that is not strictly entailed by a premise, but rather only likely given the premise. While reasoning LLMs have demonstrated strong performance on logical and mathematical tasks, their behavior on such open-ended, non-deterministic inferences remains largely unexplored. We introduce ProbCOPA, a dataset of 210 handcrafted probabilistic inferences in English, each annotated for inference likelihood by 25--30 human participants. We find that human responses are graded and varied, revealing probabilistic judgments of the inferences in our dataset. Comparing these judgments with responses from eight state-of-the-art reasoning LLMs, we show that models consistently fail to produce human-like distributions. Finally, analyzing LLM reasoning chains, we find evidence of a common reasoning pattern used to evaluate such inferences. Our findings reveal persistent differences between humans and LLMs, and underscore the need to evaluate reasoning beyond deterministic settings.

Hallucinations in Large Language Model (LLM) outputs for Question Answering (QA) tasks can critically undermine their real-world reliability. This paper introduces a methodology for robust, one-shot hallucination detection, specifically designed for scenarios with limited data access, such as interacting with black-box LLM APIs that typically expose only a few top candidate log-probabilities per token. Our approach derives uncertainty indicators directly from these readily available log-probabilities generated during non-greedy decoding. We first derive an Entropy Production Rate (EPR) that offers baseline performance, later augmented with supervised learning. Our learned model leverages the entropic contributions of the accessible top-ranked tokens within a single generated sequence, without multiple re-runs per query. Evaluated across diverse QA datasets and multiple LLMs, this estimator significantly improves token-level hallucination detection over state-of-the-art methods. Crucially, high performance is demonstrated using only the typically small set of available log-probabilities (e.g., top-10 per token), confirming its practical efficiency and suitability for API-constrained deployments. This work provides a lightweight technique to enhance the trustworthiness of LLM responses, at the token level, after a single generation pass, for QA and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Our experiments confirmed the performance of our method against existing approaches on public dataset as well as for a financial framework analyzing annual company reports.

Ensembling Large Language Models (LLMs) has gained attention as a promising approach to surpass the performance of individual models by leveraging their complementary strengths. In particular, aggregating models' next-token probability distributions to select the next token has been shown to be effective in various tasks. However, while successful for short-form answers, its application to long-form generation remains underexplored. In this paper, we show that using existing ensemble methods in long-form generation requires a careful choice of ensembling positions, since the standard practice of ensembling at every token often degrades performance. We identify two key factors for determining these positions: tokenization mismatch across models and consensus in their next-token probability distributions. Based on this, we propose SAFE, (Stable And Fast LLM Ensembling), a framework that selectively ensembles by jointly considering these factors. To further improve stability, we introduce a probability sharpening strategy that consolidates probabilities spread across multiple sub-word tokens representing the same word into a single representative token. Our experiments on diverse benchmarks, including MATH500 and BBH, demonstrate that SAFE outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and efficiency, with gains achieved even when ensembling fewer than 1% of tokens.

Large language models increasingly rely on long chains of thought to improve accuracy, yet such gains come with substantial inference-time costs. We revisit token-efficient post-training and argue that existing sequence-level reward-shaping methods offer limited control over how reasoning effort is allocated across tokens. To bridge the gap, we propose IAPO, an information-theoretic post-training framework that assigns token-wise advantages based on each token's conditional mutual information (MI) with the final answer. This yields an explicit, principled mechanism for identifying informative reasoning steps and suppressing low-utility exploration. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that our IAPO can induce monotonic reductions in reasoning verbosity without harming correctness. Empirically, IAPO consistently improves reasoning accuracy while reducing reasoning length by up to 36%, outperforming existing token-efficient RL methods across various reasoning datasets. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that information-aware advantage shaping is a powerful and general direction for token-efficient post-training. The code is available at https://github.com/YinhanHe123/IAPO.

Cross Attention is a popular method for retrieving information from a set of context tokens for making predictions. At inference time, for each prediction, Cross Attention scans the full set of O(N) tokens. In practice, however, often only a small subset of tokens are required for good performance. Methods such as Perceiver IO are cheap at inference as they distill the information to a smaller-sized set of latent tokens L < N on which cross attention is then applied, resulting in only O(L) complexity. However, in practice, as the number of input tokens and the amount of information to distill increases, the number of latent tokens needed also increases significantly. In this work, we propose Tree Cross Attention (TCA) - a module based on Cross Attention that only retrieves information from a logarithmic O(log(N)) number of tokens for performing inference. TCA organizes the data in a tree structure and performs a tree search at inference time to retrieve the relevant tokens for prediction. Leveraging TCA, we introduce ReTreever, a flexible architecture for token-efficient inference. We show empirically that Tree Cross Attention (TCA) performs comparable to Cross Attention across various classification and uncertainty regression tasks while being significantly more token-efficient. Furthermore, we compare ReTreever against Perceiver IO, showing significant gains while using the same number of tokens for inference.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit latent multi-token prediction (MTP) capabilities despite being trained solely for next-token generation. We propose a simple, training-free MTP approach that probes an LLM using on-the-fly mask tokens drawn from its embedding space, enabling parallel prediction of future tokens without modifying model weights or relying on auxiliary draft models. Our method constructs a speculative token tree by sampling top-K candidates from mask-token logits and applies a lightweight pruning strategy to retain high-probability continuations. During decoding, candidate predictions are verified in parallel, resulting in lossless generation while substantially reducing the number of model calls and improving token throughput. Across benchmarks, our probing-based MTP consistently outperforms existing training-free baselines, increasing acceptance length by approximately 12\% on LLaMA3 and 8--12\% on Qwen3, and achieving throughput gains of up to 15--19\%. Finally, we provide theoretical insights and empirical evidence showing that decoder layers naturally align mask-token representations with next-token states, enabling accurate multi-step prediction without retraining or auxiliary models.

Embedding layers in transformer-based NLP models typically account for the largest share of model parameters, scaling with vocabulary size but not yielding performance gains proportional to scale. We propose an alternative approach in which token embedding vectors are first generated deterministically, directly from the token IDs using a Fourier expansion of their normalized values, followed by a lightweight multilayer perceptron (MLP) that captures higher-order interactions. We train standard transformers and our architecture on natural language inference tasks (SNLI and MNLI), and evaluate zero-shot performance on sentence textual similarity (STS-B). Our results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves competitive performance using significantly fewer parameters, trains faster, and operates effectively without the need for dropout. This proof-of-concept study highlights the potential for scalable, memory-efficient language models and motivates further large-scale experimentation based on our findings.

State-of-the-art language models are autoregressive and operate on subword units known as tokens. Specifically, one must encode the conditioning string into a list of tokens before passing to the language models for next-token prediction. We show that popular encoding schemes, such as maximum prefix encoding (MPE) and byte-pair-encoding (BPE), induce a sampling bias that cannot be mitigated with more training or data. To counter this universal problem, for each encoding scheme above, we propose a novel algorithm to obtain unbiased estimates from any language model trained on tokenized data. Our methods do not require finetuning the model, and the complexity, defined as the number of model runs, scales linearly with the sequence length in the case of MPE. As a result, we show that one can simulate token-free behavior from a tokenized language model. We empirically verify the correctness of our method through a Markov-chain setup, where it accurately recovers the transition probabilities, as opposed to the conventional method of directly prompting tokens into the language model.

The adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) as automated evaluators (LLM-as-a-judge) has revealed critical inconsistencies in current evaluation frameworks. We identify two fundamental types of inconsistencies: (1) Score-Comparison Inconsistency, where lower-rated responses outperform higher-scored ones in pairwise comparisons, and (2) Pairwise Transitivity Inconsistency, manifested through circular preference chains (A>B>C>A) and equivalence contradictions (A=B=C\neq A). We argue that these issues come from information loss in discrete rating systems and ambiguous tie judgments during pairwise evaluation. We propose TrustJudge, a probabilistic framework that addresses these limitations through two key innovations: 1) distribution-sensitive scoring that computes continuous expectations from discrete rating probabilities, preserving information entropy for more precise scoring, and 2) likelihood-aware aggregation that resolves transitivity violations using bidirectional preference probabilities or perplexity. We also formalize the theoretical limitations of current LLM-as-a-judge frameworks and demonstrate how TrustJudge's components overcome them. When evaluated with Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct as judge using our dataset, TrustJudge reduces Score-Comparison inconsistency by 8.43% (from 23.32% to 14.89%) and Pairwise Transitivity inconsistency by 10.82% (from 15.22% to 4.40%), while maintaining higher evaluation accuracy. Our work provides the first systematic analysis of evaluation framework inconsistencies in LLM-as-a-judge paradigms, offering both theoretical insights and practical solutions for reliable automated assessment. The framework demonstrates consistent improvements across various model architectures and scales, enabling more trustworthy LLM evaluation without requiring additional training or human annotations. The codes can be found at https://github.com/TrustJudge/TrustJudge.

When using agent-task datasets to enhance agent capabilities for Large Language Models (LLMs), current methodologies often treat all tokens within a sample equally. However, we argue that tokens serving different roles - specifically, reasoning tokens versus boilerplate tokens (e.g., those governing output format) - differ significantly in importance and learning complexity, necessitating their disentanglement and distinct treatment. To address this, we propose a novel Shuffle-Aware Discriminator (SHAD) for adaptive token discrimination. SHAD classifies tokens by exploiting predictability differences observed after shuffling input-output combinations across samples: boilerplate tokens, due to their repetitive nature among samples, maintain predictability, whereas reasoning tokens do not. Using SHAD, we propose the Reasoning-highlighted Fine-Tuning (RFT) method, which adaptively emphasizes reasoning tokens during fine-tuning, yielding notable performance gains over common Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT).

Accurately quantifying a large language model's (LLM) predictive uncertainty is crucial for judging the reliability of its answers. While most existing research focuses on short, directly answerable questions with closed-form outputs (e.g., multiple-choice), involving intermediate reasoning steps in LLM responses is increasingly important. This added complexity complicates uncertainty quantification (UQ) because the probabilities assigned to answer tokens are conditioned on a vast space of preceding reasoning tokens. Direct marginalization is infeasible, and the dependency inflates probability estimates, causing overconfidence in UQ. To address this, we propose UQAC, an efficient method that narrows the reasoning space to a tractable size for marginalization. UQAC iteratively constructs an "attention chain" of tokens deemed "semantically crucial" to the final answer via a backtracking procedure. Starting from the answer tokens, it uses attention weights to identify the most influential predecessors, then iterates this process until reaching the input tokens. Similarity filtering and probability thresholding further refine the resulting chain, allowing us to approximate the marginal probabilities of the answer tokens, which serve as the LLM's confidence. We validate UQAC on multiple reasoning benchmarks with advanced open-source LLMs, demonstrating that it consistently delivers reliable UQ estimates with high computational efficiency.

The deployment of large language models (LLMs) in real-world applications is increasingly limited by their high inference cost. While recent advances in dynamic token-level computation allocation attempt to improve efficiency by selectively activating model components per token, existing methods rely on greedy routing--a myopic execute-or-skip mechanism that often leads to irreversible information loss and suboptimal token selection. This paper introduces informed routing, a new paradigm that proactively addresses these issues. The key insight is to assess not only a token's immediate importance but also its recoverability, i.e., how well its transformation can be approximated. To this end, we propose the Lightweight Feature Forecaster (LFF), a small predictive module that estimates a unit's output before routing decisions are made. This enables a flexible execute-or-approximate policy that preserves model fidelity while drastically reducing computation. Extensive experiments on both language modeling and reasoning tasks show that informed routing achieves state-of-the-art efficiency-performance trade-offs across multiple sparsity levels. Notably, even without final LoRA fine-tuning, our method matches or surpasses strong baselines that require full fine-tuning, all while reducing training time by over 50%. The code is available at: https://github.com/EIT-NLP/informed-routing

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has proven highly effective for autoregressive language models, but adapting these methods to diffusion large language models (dLLMs) presents fundamental challenges. The core difficulty lies in likelihood approximation: while autoregressive models naturally provide token-level conditional probabilities essential for token-level RL objectives (e.g., GRPO), dLLMs generate sequences through iterative non-autoregressive denoising steps that lack this factorization. To address this fundamental mismatch, we propose ELBO-based Sequence-level Policy Optimization (ESPO), a principled RL framework that treats entire sequence generation as a single action and uses the ELBO as a tractable sequence-level likelihood proxy. Our method incorporates per-token normalization of importance ratios and robust KL-divergence estimation to ensure stable large-scale training. Extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning, coding, and planning tasks demonstrate that ESPO significantly outperforms token-level baselines, achieving dramatic improvements of 20-40 points on the Countdown task, while maintaining consistent gains on math and coding benchmarks. Our approach establishes sequence-level optimization as a principled and empirically effective paradigm for RL in dLLMs. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/ESPO.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of large language models. While existing analyses identify that RLVR-induced changes are sparse, they primarily focus on the magnitude of these updates, largely overlooking their direction. In this work, we argue that the direction of updates is a more critical lens for understanding RLVR's effects, which can be captured by the signed, token-level log probability difference Δlog p between the base and final RLVR models. Through statistical analysis and token-replacement interventions, we demonstrate that Δlog p more effectively identifies sparse, yet reasoning-critical updates than magnitude-based metrics (\eg divergence or entropy). Building on this insight, we propose two practical applications: (1) a test-time extrapolation method that amplifies the policy along the learned Δlog p direction to improve reasoning accuracy without further training; (2) a training-time reweighting method that focuses learning on low-probability (corresponding to higher Δlog p) tokens, which improves reasoning performance across models and benchmarks. Our work establishes the direction of change as a key principle for analyzing and improving RLVR.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing, unstructured context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running K independent trials and combining them using logit-space averaging shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Careful ablation studies, using mixed effects analysis to control for question variability (which accounts for 62\% of the variance in performance), reveals that all 3 components contribute to the overall gains, but some components matter more than others, depending on the base LLM, and the setting (e.g.\ with or without a crowd prior). All our experiments are based on a robust back-testing framework which we develop, which has a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and may be of independent interest.

Normalizing flows provide a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a (usually simple) base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. There has been much recent work on normalizing flows, ranging from improving their expressive power to expanding their application. We believe the field has now matured and is in need of a unified perspective. In this review, we attempt to provide such a perspective by describing flows through the lens of probabilistic modeling and inference. We place special emphasis on the fundamental principles of flow design, and discuss foundational topics such as expressive power and computational trade-offs. We also broaden the conceptual framing of flows by relating them to more general probability transformations. Lastly, we summarize the use of flows for tasks such as generative modeling, approximate inference, and supervised learning.

In-Context Learning (ICL) emerges as a key feature for Large Language Models (LLMs), allowing them to adapt to new tasks by leveraging task-specific examples without updating model parameters. However, ICL faces challenges with increasing numbers of examples due to performance degradation and quadratic computational costs. In this paper, we propose Logit Arithmetic Reweighting Approach (LARA), a novel framework that enhances ICL by using logit-based ensembling of multiple demonstrations. Our approach divides long input demonstrations into parallelizable shorter inputs to significantly reduce memory requirements, and then effectively aggregate the information by reweighting logits of each group via a non-gradient optimization approach. We further introduce Binary LARA (B-LARA), a variant that constrains weights to binary values to simplify the search space and reduces memory usage by filtering out less informative demonstration groups. Experiments on BBH and MMLU demonstrate that LARA and B-LARA outperform all baseline methods in both accuracy and memory efficiency. We also conduct extensive analysis to show that LARA generalizes well to scenarios of varying numbers of examples from limited to many-shot demonstrations.

Pretrained models have become standard in both vision and language, yet they typically do not provide reliable measures of confidence. Existing uncertainty estimation methods, such as deep ensembles and MC dropout, are often too computationally expensive to deploy in practice. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) offers a more efficient alternative, but it requires models to be trained to output evidential quantities from the start, which is rarely true for pretrained networks. To enable EDL-style uncertainty estimation in pretrained models, we propose the Evidential Transformation Network (ETN), a lightweight post-hoc module that converts a pretrained predictor into an evidential model. ETN operates in logit space: it learns a sample-dependent affine transformation of the logits and interprets the transformed outputs as parameters of a Dirichlet distribution for uncertainty estimation. We evaluate ETN on image classification and large language model question-answering benchmarks under both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings. ETN consistently improves uncertainty estimation over post-hoc baselines while preserving accuracy and adding only minimal computational overhead.

Vision-language models (VLMs) embed aligned image-text pairs into a joint space but often rely on deterministic embeddings, assuming a one-to-one correspondence between images and texts. This oversimplifies real-world relationships, which are inherently many-to-many, with multiple captions describing a single image and vice versa. We introduce Probabilistic Language-Image Pre-training (ProLIP), the first probabilistic VLM pre-trained on a billion-scale image-text dataset using only probabilistic objectives, achieving a strong zero-shot capability (e.g., 74.6% ImageNet zero-shot accuracy with ViT-B/16). ProLIP efficiently estimates uncertainty by an "uncertainty token" without extra parameters. We also introduce a novel inclusion loss that enforces distributional inclusion relationships between image-text pairs and between original and masked inputs. Experiments demonstrate that, by leveraging uncertainty estimates, ProLIP benefits downstream tasks and aligns with intuitive notions of uncertainty, e.g., shorter texts being more uncertain and more general inputs including specific ones. Utilizing text uncertainties, we further improve ImageNet accuracy from 74.6% to 75.8% (under a few-shot setting), supporting the practical advantages of our probabilistic approach. The code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/prolip

Self-attention is usually described as a flexible, content-adaptive way to mix a token with information from its past. We reinterpret causal self-attention transformers, the backbone of modern foundation models, within a probabilistic framework, much as classical PCA is extended to probabilistic PCA. This reformulation reveals a key structural consequence of the underlying change of variables: a barrier constraint emerges on the parameters of self-attention. The resulting geometry exposes a degeneracy boundary where the attention-induced mapping becomes locally ill-conditioned, yielding a stability-margin interpretation analogous to the margin in support vector machines. This, in turn, naturally gives rise to the concept of support tokens. We further show that causal transformers define a consistent stochastic process over infinite token sequences, providing a rigorous probabilistic foundation for sequence modeling. Building on this view, we derive a Bayesian MAP training objective that requires only a minimal modification to standard LLM training: adding a smooth log-barrier penalty to the usual cross-entropy loss. Empirically, the resulting training objective improves robustness to input perturbations and sharpens the margin geometry of the learned representations without sacrificing out-of-sample accuracy.

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) enable strong multimodal reasoning but incur heavy inference costs from redundant visual tokens. Token pruning alleviates this issue, yet existing approaches face limitations. Attention-based methods rely on raw attention scores, which are often unstable across layers and heads and can lead to redundant selections. Diversity-based methods improve robustness by selecting tokens far apart in feature space but risk dropping regions needed for accurate prediction. We propose \ours, a training-free framework built on a simple intuition: tokens with higher sensitivity are more likely to influence the model's output, and they should also capture complementary visual cues rather than overlapping information. To achieve this, we estimate token sensitivity using zeroth-order perturbations at the projection layer, a shallow and computationally light component of the model. This approach measures how small random perturbations affect the projection outputs, allowing us to approximate each token's influence through lightweight forward passes without backpropagation. Extensive experiments across multiple VLMs and benchmarks show that \ours consistently outperforms prior methods, pruning up to 94.4\% of tokens while maintaining accuracy and significantly improving efficiency, achieving up to 2.30x faster end-to-end inference over the baseline.

Progress in language model development is often driven by comparative decisions: which architecture to adopt, which pretraining corpus to use, or which training recipe to apply. Making these decisions well requires reliable performance forecasts, yet the two commonly used signals are fundamentally limited. Cross-entropy loss is poorly aligned with downstream capabilities, and direct downstream evaluation is expensive, sparse, and often uninformative at early training stages. Instead, we propose to construct proxy metrics by aggregating token-level statistics, such as entropy, top-k accuracy, and expert token rank, from a candidate model's next token distribution over expert-written solutions. Across three settings, our proxies consistently outperform loss- and compute-based baselines: 1) For cross-family model selection, they rank a heterogeneous population of reasoning models with mean Spearman Rho = 0.81 (vs. Rho = 0.36 for cross-entropy loss); 2) For pretraining data selection, they reliably rank 25 candidate corpora for a target model at roughly 10{,}000times less compute than direct evaluation, pushing the Pareto frontier beyond existing methods; and 3) for training-time forecasting, they extrapolate downstream accuracy across an 18times compute horizon with roughly half the error of existing alternatives. Together, these results suggest that expert trajectories are a broadly useful source of signal for assessing model capabilities, enabling reliable performance forecasting throughout the model development life cycle.

Reinforcement Learning From Human Feedback (RLHF) has been a critical to the success of the latest generation of generative AI models. In response to the complex nature of the classical RLHF pipeline, direct alignment algorithms such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) have emerged as an alternative approach. Although DPO solves the same objective as the standard RLHF setup, there is a mismatch between the two approaches. Standard RLHF deploys reinforcement learning in a specific token-level MDP, while DPO is derived as a bandit problem in which the whole response of the model is treated as a single arm. In this work we rectify this difference, first we theoretically show that we can derive DPO in the token-level MDP as a general inverse Q-learning algorithm, which satisfies the Bellman equation. Using our theoretical results, we provide three concrete empirical insights. First, we show that because of its token level interpretation, DPO is able to perform some type of credit assignment. Next, we prove that under the token level formulation, classical search-based algorithms, such as MCTS, which have recently been applied to the language generation space, are equivalent to likelihood-based search on a DPO policy. Empirically we show that a simple beam search yields meaningful improvement over the base DPO policy. Finally, we show how the choice of reference policy causes implicit rewards to decline during training. We conclude by discussing applications of our work, including information elicitation in multi-tun dialogue, reasoning, agentic applications and end-to-end training of multi-model systems.

Language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in reasoning tasks through test-time scaling techniques like best-of-N sampling and tree search. However, these approaches often demand substantial computational resources, creating a critical trade-off between performance and efficiency. We introduce STAND (STochastic Adaptive N-gram Drafting), a novel model-free speculative decoding approach that leverages the inherent redundancy in reasoning trajectories to achieve significant acceleration without compromising accuracy. Our analysis reveals that reasoning paths frequently reuse similar reasoning patterns, enabling efficient model-free token prediction without requiring separate draft models. By introducing stochastic drafting and preserving probabilistic information through a memory-efficient logit-based N-gram module, combined with optimized Gumbel-Top-K sampling and data-driven tree construction, STAND significantly improves token acceptance rates. Extensive evaluations across multiple models and reasoning tasks (AIME-2024, GPQA-Diamond, and LiveCodeBench) demonstrate that STAND reduces inference latency by 60-65% compared to standard autoregressive decoding while maintaining accuracy. Furthermore, STAND outperforms state-of-the-art speculative decoding methods by 14-28% in throughput and shows strong performance even in single-trajectory scenarios, reducing inference latency by 48-58%. As a model-free approach, STAND can be applied to any existing language model without additional training, being a powerful plug-and-play solution for accelerating language model reasoning.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a powerful tool for propelling Large Language Models (LLMs) beyond imitation-based training towards more robust reasoning capabilities. Among existing approaches, RL with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a pivotal paradigm for advancing LLM reasoning. Despite its empirical success, recent studies have offered different insights. One line of inquiry advocates prioritizing high-entropy token positions during training, while another perspective cautions against allowing low-probability tokens to dominate gradient updates. Notably, although high-entropy tokens are usually correlated with low probability, both paradigms empirically yield substantial performance gains. In this work, we argue that evaluating sampled-token probability or entropy in isolation is insufficient to capture the policy optimization dynamics. To resolve this tension, we introduce the Relative Surprisal Index (RSI), a principled, information-theoretic metric that naturally couples the token's entropy with the probability of the selected token. We show that, under mild conditions, RSI is related to the local ratio between the first-order variations of the logit-gradient norm and predictive entropy under a selected-logit perturbation. Building on RSI, we propose RSI Selection (RSI-S), an entropy-adaptive token filtering method that retains tokens within a stable RSI interval. RSI-S successfully reconciles previous contradictory paradigms and filters out both redundant low-surprisal tokens and unstable high-surprisal tail tokens. Empirical evaluations show that RSI-S achieves higher avg@32 accuracy across different model scales (Qwen2.5-1.5B, 3B, and 7B) on AIME and AMC benchmarks: RSI-S improves avg@32 accuracy by 2--3 percentage points over GRPO. Overall, RSI offers a promising perspective for RLVR improvement.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized for machine translation, yet their predictions often exhibit uncertainties that hinder interpretability and user trust. Effectively visualizing these uncertainties can enhance the usability of LLM outputs, particularly in contexts where translation accuracy is critical. This paper addresses two primary objectives: (1) providing users with token-level insights into model confidence and (2) developing a web-based visualization tool to quantify and represent translation uncertainties. To achieve these goals, we utilized the T5 model with the WMT19 dataset for translation tasks and evaluated translation quality using established metrics such as BLEU, METEOR, and ROUGE. We introduced three novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) metrics: (1) the geometric mean of token probabilities, (2) the arithmetic mean of token probabilities, and (3) the arithmetic mean of the kurtosis of token distributions. These metrics provide a simple yet effective framework for evaluating translation performance. Our analysis revealed a linear relationship between the traditional evaluation metrics and our UQ metrics, demonstrating the validity of our approach. Additionally, we developed an interactive web-based visualization that uses a color gradient to represent token confidence. This tool offers users a clear and intuitive understanding of translation quality while providing valuable insights into model performance. Overall, we show that our UQ metrics and visualization are both robust and interpretable, offering practical tools for evaluating and accessing machine translation systems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable performance on reasoning tasks. They utilize autoregressive token generation to construct reasoning trajectories, enabling the development of a coherent chain of thought. In this work, we explore the impact of individual tokens on the final outcomes of reasoning tasks. We identify the existence of ``critical tokens'' that lead to incorrect reasoning trajectories in LLMs. Specifically, we find that LLMs tend to produce positive outcomes when forced to decode other tokens instead of critical tokens. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel approach - cDPO - designed to automatically recognize and conduct token-level rewards for the critical tokens during the alignment process. Specifically, we develop a contrastive estimation approach to automatically identify critical tokens. It is achieved by comparing the generation likelihood of positive and negative models. To achieve this, we separately fine-tune the positive and negative models on various reasoning trajectories, consequently, they are capable of identifying identify critical tokens within incorrect trajectories that contribute to erroneous outcomes. Moreover, to further align the model with the critical token information during the alignment process, we extend the conventional DPO algorithms to token-level DPO and utilize the differential likelihood from the aforementioned positive and negative model as important weight for token-level DPO learning.Experimental results on GSM8K and MATH500 benchmarks with two-widely used models Llama-3 (8B and 70B) and deepseek-math (7B) demonstrate the effectiveness of the propsoed approach cDPO.

The recent surge in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has showcased their remarkable potential for achieving generalized intelligence by integrating visual understanding into Large Language Models.Nevertheless, the sheer model size of MLLMs leads to substantial memory and computational demands that hinder their widespread deployment. In this work, we do not propose a new efficient model structure or train small-scale MLLMs from scratch. Instead, we focus on what matters for training small-scale MLLMs through knowledge distillation, which is the first step from the multimodal distillation perspective. Our extensive studies involve training strategies, model choices, and distillation algorithms in the knowledge distillation process. These results show that joint alignment for both tokens and logit alignment plays critical roles in teacher-student frameworks. In addition, we draw a series of intriguing observations from this study. By evaluating different benchmarks and proper strategy, even a 2.7B small-scale model can perform on par with larger models with 7B or 13B parameters. Our code and models will be publicly available for further research.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous decision agents in settings with asymmetric error costs: hiring (missed talent vs wasted interviews), medical triage (missed emergencies vs unnecessary escalation), and fraud detection (approved fraud vs declined legitimate payments). The dominant design queries a single LLM for a posterior over states, thresholds "confidence," and acts; we prove this is inadequate for sequential decisions with costs. We propose a Bayesian, cost-aware multi-LLM orchestration framework that treats LLMs as approximate likelihood models rather than classifiers. For each candidate state, we elicit likelihoods via contrastive prompting, aggregate across diverse models with robust statistics, and update beliefs with Bayes rule under explicit priors as new evidence arrives. This enables coherent belief updating, expected-cost action selection, principled information gathering via value of information, and fairness gains via ensemble bias mitigation. In resume screening with costs of 40000 USD per missed hire, 2500 USD per interview, and 150 USD per phone screen, experiments on 1000 resumes using five LLMs (GPT-4o, Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Gemini Pro, Grok, DeepSeek) reduce total cost by 294000 USD (34 percent) versus the best single-LLM baseline and improve demographic parity by 45 percent (max group gap 22 to 5 percentage points). Ablations attribute 51 percent of savings to multi-LLM aggregation, 43 percent to sequential updating, and 20 percent to disagreement-triggered information gathering, consistent with the theoretical benefits of correct probabilistic foundations.

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model inference by drafting multiple candidate tokens and verifying them in a single forward pass. Candidates are organized as a tree: deeper trees accept more tokens per step, but adding depth requires sacrificing breadth (fallback options) under a fixed verification budget. Existing training-free methods draft from a single token source and shape their trees without distinguishing candidate quality across origins. We observe that two common training-free token sources - n-gram matches copied from the input context, and statistical predictions from prior forward passes - differ dramatically in acceptance rate (~6x median gap, range 2-18x across five models and five benchmarks). We prove that when such a quality gap exists, the optimal tree is anisotropic (asymmetric): reliable tokens should form a deep chain while unreliable tokens spread as wide branches, breaking through the depth limit of balanced trees. We realize this structure in GOOSE, a training-free framework that builds an adaptive spine tree - a deep chain of high-acceptance context-matched tokens with wide branches of low-acceptance alternatives at each node. We prove that the number of tokens accepted per step is at least as large as that of either source used alone. On five LLMs (7B-33B) and five benchmarks, GOOSE achieves 1.9-4.3x lossless speedup, outperforming balanced-tree baselines by 12-33% under the same budget.

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

Reinforcement-learning-based post-training has become a key approach for improving the reasoning ability of large language models, but its token-level learning signals remain poorly understood. This work studies their heterogeneity through attention entropy, which measures how concentrated or diffuse the contextual support is for each response token. We first show that token-level RL objectives are sparsely estimable: uniformly random 20 percent token subsets preserve much of the full-token held-out performance, suggesting substantial redundancy in token-level updates. However, entropy-structured subsets behave very differently. Low-attention-entropy tokens, which we call anchors, rely on concentrated support, produce stable gradients aligned with full-token updates, and provide a reliable optimization backbone, but tend to plateau on harder benchmarks. High-attention-entropy tokens, which we call explorers, aggregate more diffuse context and induce larger but more volatile gradients. Explorer-only training is unstable on average, though rare successful runs suggest that these tokens may contain useful hard-reasoning signals when optimization remains stable. We support this anchor-explorer spectrum with evidence-gathering analyses, entropy dynamics, gradient-geometry diagnostics, and controls showing that position, predictive entropy, and loss normalization do not explain the observed asymmetry. Finally, a dynamic entropy-aware soft-reweighting intervention improves Qwen3-8B-Base from 34.39 to 37.40 held-out average in the strongest setting. These findings suggest that attention entropy reveals optimization-relevant structure in token-level RL signals, and that uniform token averaging can obscure meaningful heterogeneity in reasoning post-training.

Token-level reweighting is a simple yet effective mechanism for controlling supervised fine-tuning, but common indicators are largely one-dimensional: the ground-truth probability reflects downstream alignment, while token entropy reflects intrinsic uncertainty induced by the pre-training prior. Ignoring entropy can misidentify noisy or easily replaceable tokens as learning-critical, while ignoring probability fails to reflect target-specific alignment. RankTuner introduces a probability--entropy calibration signal, the Relative Rank Indicator, which compares the rank of the ground-truth token with its expected rank under the prediction distribution. The inverse indicator is used as a token-wise Relative Scale to reweight the fine-tuning objective, focusing updates on truly under-learned tokens without over-penalizing intrinsically uncertain positions. Experiments on multiple backbones show consistent improvements on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, transfer gains on out-of-distribution reasoning, and pre code generation performance over probability-only or entropy-only reweighting baselines.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is an efficient approach for downstream task adaptation and often serves as the initialization stage for reinforcement learning (RL), but it can show weaker generalization than RL. A key limitation is its off-policy objective: SFT fits fixed demonstrations token by token, including targets poorly aligned with the model's pretrained distribution, which can lead to overfitting. A recent line of work addresses this issue by assigning larger training weights to tokens better aligned with the current model's predictive distribution, with the intuition that fitting these tokens are less distortive to the model's pretrained knowledge and representations. However, computing the token weights from the model that is currently fine-tuned entangles token weights with the optimization trajectory, inducing a self-reinforcing dynamics as the distribution rapidly departs from the pretrained model. To address this, we propose PriFT (Prior-support guided Fine-Tuning), which derives token weights from a frozen pretrained reference to obtain a stable reweighting signal unaffected by fine-tuning. This signal estimates prior support: the extent to which each target token is supported by the pretrained distribution. Across multiple existing token-reweighting rules, replacing the reweighting signal from the online model to pretrained model consistently improves performance. We introduce two instantiations: PriFT-prob uses pretrained token probability, while PriFT-mass selects tokens by cumulative probability mass under the pretrained distribution. Extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning, code generation, and medical question answering show that PriFT achieves state-of-the-art results among SFT baselines and provides a better initialization for subsequent RL training.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

We present a method to integrate Large Language Models (LLMs) and traditional tabular data classification techniques, addressing LLMs challenges like data serialization sensitivity and biases. We introduce two strategies utilizing LLMs for ranking categorical variables and generating priors on correlations between continuous variables and targets, enhancing performance in few-shot scenarios. We focus on Logistic Regression, introducing MonotonicLR that employs a non-linear monotonic function for mapping ordinals to cardinals while preserving LLM-determined orders. Validation against baseline models reveals the superior performance of our approach, especially in low-data scenarios, while remaining interpretable.

We introduce a simple, yet novel entropy-based framework to drive token efficiency in large language models during reasoning tasks. Our approach uses Shannon entropy from token-level logprobs as a confidence signal to enable early stopping, achieving 25-50% computational savings while maintaining task accuracy. Crucially, we demonstrate that entropy-based confidence calibration represents an emergent property of advanced post-training optimization present in modern reasoning models but notably absent in standard instruction-tuned and pre-trained models (Llama 3.3 70B). We show that the entropy threshold to stop reasoning varies from model to model but can be calculated easily in one shot using only a few examples from existing reasoning datasets. Our results indicate that advanced reasoning models often know that they've gotten a correct answer early on, and that this emergent confidence awareness can be exploited to save tokens and reduce latency. The framework demonstrates consistent performance across reasoning-optimized model families with 25-50% computational cost reduction while preserving accuracy, revealing that confidence mechanisms represent a distinguishing characteristic of modern post-trained reasoning systems versus their predecessors.

Large language model (LLM) agents allocate test-time compute adaptively as they revise solutions, use tools, explore alternatives, and decide when to stop. This test-time strategy makes it difficult to measure how agent performance scales. We study open-ended tasks that provide continuous scores for intermediate submissions, making progress observable throughout long trajectories. We propose Elo-per-token analysis, which tracks the best solution found at each token budget and uses a Bradley-Terry model to aggregate within-task orderings into Elo ratings across tasks with different score scales. We apply it to four general-purpose agents on four open-ended benchmarks, with sessions of up to 100M tokens, and to three feedback-driven LLM optimization harnesses in controlled single-task interventions. Independent sampling provides a theoretically characterized reference, for which Elo grows linearly with log compute. Against this reference, agents can initially convert tokens into Elo faster than independent sampling, but their marginal gains diminish and eventually fall below the reference. In contrast, the strongest historical human contestants improve superlinearly over contest time on shared AtCoder Heuristic Contest tasks, providing evidence of continual learning and substantial headroom after agents slow down. We define the scaling inflection point as the per-session budget where marginal Elo gains match the independent-sampling reference. Using this point as the per-session budget, we split 100M tokens across parallel sessions on FrontierCS Polyomino Packing, gaining +264 Elo over one long session and +355 over ten short sessions.

We present Entropy Adaptive Decoding (EAD), a novel approach for efficient language model inference that dynamically switches between different-sized models based on prediction uncertainty. By monitoring rolling entropy in model logit distributions, our method identifies text regions where a smaller model suffices and switches to a larger model only when prediction uncertainty exceeds a threshold. Unlike speculative decoding approaches that maintain perfect output fidelity through verification, EAD accepts controlled output divergence in exchange for computational efficiency. Our experiments on the MATH benchmark demonstrate remarkable efficiency gains across different model families. Using the LLaMA family, we maintain 96.7\% of the 11B model's performance (50.4\% vs 52.1\%) while using it for only 43\% of tokens, decreasing computational cost by 41.5\%. These gains become more pronounced with larger size differentials in the Qwen family, where we achieve 92.9\% of the 14B model's performance (74.3\% vs 80.0\%) while using it for just 25\% of tokens, decreasing computational cost by 67\%. The consistency of these results across model pairs suggests that language model computation can be significantly optimized by selectively deploying model capacity based on local generation complexity. Our findings indicate that current approaches to model inference may be unnecessarily conservative in their pursuit of perfect output fidelity, and that accepting minor performance trade-offs can enable dramatic reductions in computational costs.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Recent advancements in reinforcement learning, particularly through Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), have significantly improved multimodal large language models for complex reasoning tasks. However, two critical limitations persist: 1) they often produce unfocused, verbose reasoning chains that obscure salient spatiotemporal cues and 2) binary rewarding fails to account for partially correct answers, resulting in high reward variance and inefficient learning. In this paper, we propose TW-GRPO, a novel framework that enhances visual reasoning with focused thinking and dense reward granularity. Specifically, we employs a token weighting mechanism that prioritizes tokens with high informational density (estimated by intra-group variance), suppressing redundant tokens like generic reasoning prefixes. Furthermore, we reformulate RL training by shifting from single-choice to multi-choice QA tasks, where soft rewards enable finer-grained gradient estimation by distinguishing partial correctness. Additionally, we propose question-answer inversion, a data augmentation strategy to generate diverse multi-choice samples from existing benchmarks. Experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on several video reasoning and general understanding benchmarks. Notably, TW-GRPO achieves 50.4\% accuracy on CLEVRER (18.8\% improvement over Video-R1) and 65.8\% on MMVU. Our codes are available at https://github.com/longmalongma/TW-GRPO.

We systematically investigate multi-token prediction (MTP) capabilities within LLMs pre-trained for next-token prediction (NTP). We first show that such models inherently possess MTP capabilities via numerical marginalization over intermediate token probabilities, though performance is data-dependent and improves with model scale. Furthermore, we explore the challenges of integrating MTP heads into frozen LLMs and find that their hidden layers are strongly specialized for NTP, making adaptation non-trivial. Finally, we show that while joint training of MTP heads with the backbone improves performance, it cannot fully overcome this barrier, prompting further research in this direction. Our findings provide a deeper understanding of MTP applied to pretrained LLMs, informing strategies for accelerating inference through parallel token prediction.

Autoregressive sampling from large language models has led to state-of-the-art results in several natural language tasks. However, autoregressive sampling generates tokens one at a time making it slow, and even prohibitive in certain tasks. One way to speed up sampling is speculative decoding: use a small model to sample a draft (block or sequence of tokens), and then score all tokens in the draft by the large language model in parallel. A subset of the tokens in the draft are accepted (and the rest rejected) based on a statistical method to guarantee that the final output follows the distribution of the large model. In this work, we provide a principled understanding of speculative decoding through the lens of optimal transport (OT) with membership cost. This framework can be viewed as an extension of the well-known maximal-coupling problem. This new formulation enables us to generalize the speculative decoding method to allow for a set of k candidates at the token-level, which leads to an improved optimal membership cost. We show that the optimal draft selection algorithm (transport plan) can be computed via linear programming, whose best-known runtime is exponential in k. We then propose a valid draft selection algorithm whose acceptance probability is (1-1/e)-optimal multiplicatively. Moreover, it can be computed in time almost linear with size of domain of a single token. Using this new draft selection algorithm, we develop a new autoregressive sampling algorithm called SpecTr, which provides speedup in decoding while ensuring that there is no quality degradation in the decoded output. We experimentally demonstrate that for state-of-the-art large language models, the proposed approach achieves a wall clock speedup of 2.13X, a further 1.37X speedup over speculative decoding on standard benchmarks.

Recent advancements have shown that reinforcement learning (RL) can substantially improve the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). The effectiveness of such RL training, however, depends critically on the exploration space defined by the pre-trained model's token-output distribution. In this paper, we revisit the standard cross-entropy loss, interpreting it as a specific instance of policy gradient optimization applied within a single-step episode. To systematically study how the pre-trained distribution shapes the exploration potential for subsequent RL, we propose a generalized pre-training objective that adapts on-policy RL principles to supervised learning. By framing next-token prediction as a stochastic decision process, we introduce a reward-shaping strategy that explicitly balances diversity and precision. Our method employs a positive reward scaling factor to control probability concentration on ground-truth tokens and a rank-aware mechanism that treats high-ranking and low-ranking negative tokens asymmetrically. This allows us to reshape the pre-trained token-output distribution and investigate how to provide a more favorable exploration space for RL, ultimately enhancing end-to-end reasoning performance. Contrary to the intuition that higher distribution entropy facilitates effective exploration, we find that imposing a precision-oriented prior yields a superior exploration space for RL.

As large language models (LLMs) are pretrained on massive web corpora, careful selection of data becomes essential to ensure effective and efficient learning. While perplexity (PPL)-based filtering has shown strong performance, it suffers from drawbacks: substantial time costs and inherent unreliability of the model when handling noisy or out-of-distribution samples. In this work, we propose a simple yet powerful alternative: a prior-based data filtering method that estimates token priors using corpus-level term frequency statistics, inspired by linguistic insights on word roles and lexical density. Our approach filters documents based on the mean and standard deviation of token priors, serving as a fast proxy to PPL while requiring no model inference. Despite its simplicity, the prior-based filter achieves the highest average performance across 20 downstream benchmarks, while reducing time cost by over 1000x compared to PPL-based filtering. We further demonstrate its applicability to symbolic languages such as code and math, and its dynamic adaptability to multilingual corpora without supervision

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable promise for democratizing automated reasoning by generating formal specifications. However, a fundamental tension exists: LLMs are probabilistic, while formal verification demands deterministic guarantees. This paper addresses this epistemological gap by comprehensively investigating failure modes and uncertainty quantification (UQ) in LLM-generated formal artifacts. Our systematic evaluation of five frontier LLMs reveals Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) based autoformalization's domain-specific impact on accuracy (from +34.8% on logical tasks to -44.5% on factual ones), with known UQ techniques like the entropy of token probabilities failing to identify these errors. We introduce a probabilistic context-free grammar (PCFG) framework to model LLM outputs, yielding a refined uncertainty taxonomy. We find uncertainty signals are task-dependent (e.g., grammar entropy for logic, AUROC>0.93). Finally, a lightweight fusion of these signals enables selective verification, drastically reducing errors (14-100%) with minimal abstention, transforming LLM-driven formalization into a reliable engineering discipline.

Feature attribution methods (FAs), such as gradients and attention, are widely employed approaches to derive the importance of all input features to the model predictions. Existing work in natural language processing has mostly focused on developing and testing FAs for encoder-only language models (LMs) in classification tasks. However, it is unknown if it is faithful to use these FAs for decoder-only models on text generation, due to the inherent differences between model architectures and task settings respectively. Moreover, previous work has demonstrated that there is no `one-wins-all' FA across models and tasks. This makes the selection of a FA computationally expensive for large LMs since input importance derivation often requires multiple forward and backward passes including gradient computations that might be prohibitive even with access to large compute. To address these issues, we present a model-agnostic FA for generative LMs called Recursive Attribution Generator (ReAGent). Our method updates the token importance distribution in a recursive manner. For each update, we compute the difference in the probability distribution over the vocabulary for predicting the next token between using the original input and using a modified version where a part of the input is replaced with RoBERTa predictions. Our intuition is that replacing an important token in the context should have resulted in a larger change in the model's confidence in predicting the token than replacing an unimportant token. Our method can be universally applied to any generative LM without accessing internal model weights or additional training and fine-tuning, as most other FAs require. We extensively compare the faithfulness of ReAGent with seven popular FAs across six decoder-only LMs of various sizes. The results show that our method consistently provides more faithful token importance distributions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly evaluated on multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) tasks using *first-token probability* (FTP), which selects the answer option whose initial token has the highest likelihood. While efficient, FTP can be fragile: models may assign high probability to unrelated tokens (*misalignment*) or use a valid token merely as part of a generic preamble rather than as a clear answer choice (*misinterpretation*), undermining the reliability of symbolic evaluation. We propose a simple solution: the *prefilling attack*, a structured natural-language prefix (e.g., "*The correct option is:*") prepended to the model output. Originally explored in AI safety, we repurpose prefilling to steer the model to respond with a clean, valid option, without modifying its parameters. Empirically, the FTP with prefilling strategy substantially improves accuracy, calibration, and output consistency across a broad set of LLMs and MCQA benchmarks. It outperforms standard FTP and often matches the performance of open-ended generation approaches that require full decoding and external classifiers, while being significantly more efficient. Our findings suggest that prefilling is a simple, robust, and low-cost method to enhance the reliability of FTP-based evaluation in multiple-choice settings.

Discrete flow matching provides a flexible framework for generative modeling on discrete structures. However, the standard factorized training objective exposes the model to targets of varying difficulty, mixing well-conditioned, predictable tokens with ambiguous, high-entropy ones. We empirically demonstrate that the uncertainty over the value of each token is closely related to the density of available context in its neighborhood. Motivated by this observation, we propose a simple modification to the underlying continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) that incorporates local context information. Our context-weighted sampler improves generation quality with negligible computational overhead, while our scaled cross-entropy loss function reweights the training signal from different tokens and reduces generative perplexity by up to 63% on OpenWebText. Moreover, our approach matches a strong semi-autoregressive block diffusion baseline in quality while retaining the ability to perform generation in any order. These results highlight the role of local context as an important factor in discrete generative modeling and show that simple context-aware modifications can significantly improve both sampling and training efficiency.

In this paper, we present a novel framework for the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis [27], which is composed of three key components: a) probabilistic modeling with cross entropy optimization and reasoning; b) the application of the law of large numbers; c) the application of mathematical inductions. The analysis is mainly conducted by virtue of probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning with rare event simulation techniques. The application of the law of large numbers [2, 3, 6] and the application of mathematical inductions make the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis self-contained and complete to make sure that the whole complex plane is covered as conjectured in Riemann Hypothesis. We also discuss the method of enhanced top-p sampling with large language models (LLMs) for reasoning, where next token prediction is not just based on the estimated probabilities of each possible token in the current round but also based on accumulated path probabilities among multiple top-k chain of thoughts (CoTs) paths. The probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning may suit well with the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis as Riemann Zeta functions are inherently dealing with the sums of infinite components of a complex number series. We hope that our analysis in this paper could shed some light on some of the insights of Riemann Hypothesis. The framework and techniques presented in this paper, coupled with recent developments with chain of thought (CoT) or diagram of thought (DoT) reasoning in large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) [1, 7, 18, 21, 24, 34, 39-41], could pave the way for eventual proof of Riemann Hypothesis [27].

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a central technique for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models. Despite its effectiveness, how response-level rewards translate into token-level probability changes remains poorly understood. We introduce a discriminator view of RLVR updates, showing that the policy-gradient update direction implicitly acts as a linear discriminator over token-gradient vectors and thereby determines which token probabilities are increased or decreased during learning. Under standard sequence-level RLVR, this discriminator is constructed from positive- and negative-side centroids formed by advantage-weighted averaging of token-gradient vectors. However, such centroid construction can be dominated by shared high-frequency patterns, such as formatting tokens, diluting sparse yet discriminative directions that better distinguish high-reward responses from low-reward ones. To address this limitation, we propose DelTA, a discriminative token credit assignment method that estimates token coefficients to amplify side-specific token-gradient directions and downweight shared or weakly discriminative ones. These coefficients reweight a self-normalized RLVR surrogate, making the effective side-wise centroids more contrastive and thereby reshaping the RLVR update direction. On seven mathematical benchmarks, DelTA outperforms the strongest same-scale baselines by 3.26 and 2.62 average points on Qwen3-8B-Base and Qwen3-14B-Base, respectively. Additional results on code generation, a different backbone, and out-of-domain evaluations further demonstrate the generalization ability of DelTA.

This paper proposes a simple method for controllable text generation based on weighting logits with a free-form classifier, namely CAIF sampling. Using an arbitrary text classifier, we adjust a small part of a language model's logits and guide text generation towards or away from classifier prediction. We experimented with toxicity avoidance and sentiment control tasks and showed that the proposed method significantly outperforms recent PPLM, GeDi, and DExperts on PPL and task accuracy metrics based on the external classifier of generated texts. In addition, compared to other approaches, it is easier to implement and tune and has significantly fewer restrictions and requirements.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face practical barriers: logits are often hidden, multi-sampling is computationally expensive, and verbalized numerical uncertainty (e.g., giving a 0-100 score) deviates from natural communication. We revisit linguistic confidence (LC), where models express uncertainty through hedging language (e.g., probably, might), offering a lightweight and human-centered alternative. To advance this direction, we (1) release the first diverse, large-scale dataset of hedging expressions with human-annotated confidence scores, and (2) propose a lightweight mapper that converts hedges into confidence scores at near-zero cost. Building on these resources, we (3) conduct the first systematic study of LC across modern LLMs and QA benchmarks, revealing that while most LLMs underperform in expressing reliable LC, carefully designed prompting achieves competitive calibration and discriminability. Finally, we (4) introduce a fine-tuning framework that further improves LC reliability. Taken together, our work positions linguistic confidence as a scalable, efficient, and human-aligned approach to LLM uncertainty estimation, and calls for deeper exploration of this promising yet underexplored direction.

Multiple choice questions (MCQs) are commonly used to evaluate the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). One common way to evaluate the model response is to rank the candidate answers based on the log probability of the first token prediction. An alternative way is to examine the text output. Prior work has shown that first token probabilities lack robustness to changes in MCQ phrasing, and that first token probabilities do not match text answers for instruction-tuned models. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the robustness of text answers. We show that the text answers are more robust to question perturbations than the first token probabilities, when the first token answers mismatch the text answers. The difference in robustness increases as the mismatch rate becomes greater. As the mismatch reaches over 50\%, the text answer is more robust to option order changes than the debiased first token probabilities using state-of-the-art debiasing methods such as PriDe. Our findings provide further evidence for the benefits of text answer evaluation over first token probability evaluation.

Rubric-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) has emerged as a promising approach for aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with complex, open-domain instruction following tasks. However, existing methods predominantly rely on response-level rewards, introducing severe reward sparsity and reward ambiguity problems. To address these issues, we propose Rubrics to Tokens (RTT), a novel rubric-based RL framework that bridges coarse response-level scores and fine-grained token-level credit assignment. RTT introduces a Token-Level Relevance Discriminator to predict which tokens in the response are responsible for a specific constraint, and optimizes the policy model via RTT-GRPO, which integrates response-level and token-level advantages within a unified framework. Furthermore, when transitioning from one-dimensional, outcome-level reward to three-dimensional reward space in the token-level rubric-based RL, we propose a novel group normalization method, called Intra-sample Token Group Normalization, to accommodate this shift. Extensive experiments and benchmarks demonstrate that RTT consistently outperforms other baselines in both instruction- and rubric-level accuracy across different models.

Using language models to scalably approximate human preferences on text quality (LLM-as-a-judge) has become a standard practice applicable to many tasks. A judgment is often extracted from the judge's textual output alone, typically with greedy decoding. However, LLM judges naturally provide distributions over judgment tokens, inviting a breadth of inference methods for extracting fine-grained preferences. We find that taking the mean of the judgment distribution consistently outperforms taking the mode (i.e. greedy decoding) in all evaluation settings (i.e. pointwise, pairwise, and listwise). We further explore novel methods of deriving preferences from judgment distributions, and find that methods incorporating risk aversion often improve performance. Lastly, we analyze LLM-as-a-judge paired with chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting, showing that CoT can collapse the spread of the judgment distribution, often harming performance. Our findings show that leveraging distributional output improves LLM-as-a-judge, as opposed to using the text interface alone.

The prefill stage in long-context LLM inference remains a computational bottleneck. Recent token-ranking heuristics accelerate inference by selectively processing a subset of semantically relevant tokens. However, existing methods suffer from unstable token importance estimation, often varying between layers. Evaluating token-ranking quality independently from heuristic-specific architectures is challenging. To address this, we introduce an Answer-Informed Oracle, which defines ground-truth token importance by measuring attention from generated answers back to the prompt. This oracle reveals that existing heuristics exhibit high variance across layers: rankings can degrade sharply at specific layers, a failure mode invisible to end-to-end benchmarks. The diagnosis suggests a simple fix: aggregate scores across layers rather than relying on any single one. We implement this as Cross-Layer Attention Aggregation (CLAA), which closes the gap to the oracle upper bound and reduces Time-to-First-Token (TTFT) by up to 39\% compared to the Full KV Cache baseline.