Daily Papers

Accurate and responsive turn-taking is essential for spoken dialogue systems, which must distinguish in real time between user interruptions, backchannels that should be ignored, and the completion of an utterance. Prior modular approaches typically optimize turn state prediction at the utterance or fixed-chunk level, creating a mismatch with the continuous turn state estimate, and often depend on an auxiliary ASR model, which limits responsiveness and increases overall system complexity. Therefore, we present X2-Turn, a frame-synchronous turn state prediction method via delayed-stream modeling. Specifically, building on the pretrained Voxtral Realtime model, we introduce a frame-synchronous turn state head that operates in parallel with the ASR head on shared streaming representations, jointly predicting ASR tokens and fine-grained turn states at the frame level. We evaluate our method on the bilingual Chinese-English Easy-Turn test sets, and the results demonstrate its effectiveness in achieving accurate turn-taking detection while maintaining low latency.

Recent advancements in image and video synthesis have opened up new promise in generative games. One particularly intriguing application is transforming characters from anime films into interactive, playable entities. This allows players to immerse themselves in the dynamic anime world as their favorite characters for life simulation through language instructions. Such games are defined as infinite game since they eliminate predetermined boundaries and fixed gameplay rules, where players can interact with the game world through open-ended language and experience ever-evolving storylines and environments. Recently, a pioneering approach for infinite anime life simulation employs large language models (LLMs) to translate multi-turn text dialogues into language instructions for image generation. However, it neglects historical visual context, leading to inconsistent gameplay. Furthermore, it only generates static images, failing to incorporate the dynamics necessary for an engaging gaming experience. In this work, we propose AnimeGamer, which is built upon Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to generate each game state, including dynamic animation shots that depict character movements and updates to character states, as illustrated in Figure 1. We introduce novel action-aware multimodal representations to represent animation shots, which can be decoded into high-quality video clips using a video diffusion model. By taking historical animation shot representations as context and predicting subsequent representations, AnimeGamer can generate games with contextual consistency and satisfactory dynamics. Extensive evaluations using both automated metrics and human evaluations demonstrate that AnimeGamer outperforms existing methods in various aspects of the gaming experience. Codes and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/TencentARC/AnimeGamer.

Recent advances in spoken dialogue systems have brought increased attention to human-like full-duplex voice interactions. However, our comprehensive review of this field reveals several challenges, including the difficulty in obtaining training data, catastrophic forgetting, and limited scalability. In this work, we propose SoulX-Duplug, a plug-and-play streaming state prediction module for full-duplex spoken dialogue systems. By jointly performing streaming ASR, SoulX-Duplug explicitly leverages textual information to identify user intent, effectively serving as a semantic VAD. To promote fair evaluation, we introduce SoulX-Duplug-Eval, extending widely used benchmarks with improved bilingual coverage. Experimental results show that SoulX-Duplug enables low-latency streaming dialogue state control, and the system built upon it outperforms existing full-duplex models in overall turn management and latency performance. We have open-sourced SoulX-Duplug and SoulX-Duplug-Eval.

Current approaches to sales conversation analysis and conversion prediction typically rely on Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with basic retrieval augmented generation (RAG). These systems, while capable of answering questions, fail to accurately predict conversion probability or provide strategic guidance in real time. In this paper, we present SalesRLAgent, a novel framework leveraging specialized reinforcement learning to predict conversion probability throughout sales conversations. Unlike systems from Kapa.ai, Mendable, Inkeep, and others that primarily use off-the-shelf LLMs for content generation, our approach treats conversion prediction as a sequential decision problem, training on synthetic data generated using GPT-4O to develop a specialized probability estimation model. Our system incorporates Azure OpenAI embeddings (3072 dimensions), turn-by-turn state tracking, and meta-learning capabilities to understand its own knowledge boundaries. Evaluations demonstrate that SalesRLAgent achieves 96.7% accuracy in conversion prediction, outperforming LLM-only approaches by 34.7% while offering significantly faster inference (85ms vs 3450ms for GPT-4). Furthermore, integration with existing sales platforms shows a 43.2% increase in conversion rates when representatives utilize our system's real-time guidance. SalesRLAgent represents a fundamental shift from content generation to strategic sales intelligence, providing moment-by-moment conversion probability estimation with actionable insights for sales professionals.

A key challenge in training Vision-Language Model (VLM) agents, compared to Language Model (LLM) agents, lies in the shift from textual states to complex visual observations. This transition introduces partial observability and demands robust world modeling. We ask: Can VLM agents construct internal world models through explicit visual state reasoning? To address this question, we architecturally enforce and reward the agent's reasoning process via reinforcement learning (RL), formulating it as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). We find that decomposing the agent's reasoning into State Estimation ("what is the current state?") and Transition Modeling ("what comes next?") is critical for success, as demonstrated through five reasoning strategies. Our investigation into how agents represent internal beliefs reveals that the optimal representation is task-dependent: Natural Language excels at capturing semantic relationships in general tasks, while Structured formats are indispensable for precise manipulation and control. Building on these insights, we design a World Modeling Reward that provides dense, turn-level supervision for accurate state prediction, and introduce Bi-Level General Advantage Estimation (Bi-Level GAE) for turn-aware credit assignment. Through this form of visual state reasoning, a 3B-parameter model achieves a score of 0.82 across five diverse agent benchmarks, representing a 3times improvement over its untrained counterpart (0.21) and outperforming proprietary reasoning models such as GPT-5 (0.75), Gemini 2.5 Pro (0.67) and Claude 4.5 (0.62). All experiments are conducted within our VAGEN framework, a scalable system for training and analyzing multi-turn VLM agents in diverse visual environments. Code and data are publicly available at https://vagen-ai.github.io.

Robot sports, characterized by well-defined objectives, explicit rules, and dynamic interactions, present ideal scenarios for demonstrating embodied intelligence. In this paper, we present VolleyBots, a novel robot sports testbed where multiple drones cooperate and compete in the sport of volleyball under physical dynamics. VolleyBots integrates three features within a unified platform: competitive and cooperative gameplay, turn-based interaction structure, and agile 3D maneuvering. Competitive and cooperative gameplay challenges each drone to coordinate with its teammates while anticipating and countering opposing teams' tactics. Turn-based interaction demands precise timing, accurate state prediction, and management of long-horizon temporal dependencies. Agile 3D maneuvering requires rapid accelerations, sharp turns, and precise 3D positioning despite the quadrotor's underactuated dynamics. These intertwined features yield a complex problem combining motion control and strategic play, with no available expert demonstrations. We provide a comprehensive suite of tasks ranging from single-drone drills to multi-drone cooperative and competitive tasks, accompanied by baseline evaluations of representative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) and game-theoretic algorithms. Simulation results show that on-policy reinforcement learning (RL) methods outperform off-policy methods in single-agent tasks, but both approaches struggle in complex tasks that combine motion control and strategic play. We additionally design a hierarchical policy which achieves a 69.5% percent win rate against the strongest baseline in the 3 vs 3 task, underscoring its potential as an effective solution for tackling the complex interplay between low-level control and high-level strategy. The project page is at https://sites.google.com/view/thu-volleybots.

Property prediction accuracy has long been a key parameter of machine learning in materials informatics. Accordingly, advanced models showing state-of-the-art performance turn into highly parameterized black boxes missing interpretability. Here, we present an elegant way to make their reasoning transparent. Human-readable text-based descriptions automatically generated within a suite of open-source tools are proposed as materials representation. Transformer language models pretrained on 2 million peer-reviewed articles take as input well-known terms, e.g., chemical composition, crystal symmetry, and site geometry. Our approach outperforms crystal graph networks by classifying four out of five analyzed properties if one considers all available reference data. Moreover, fine-tuned text-based models show high accuracy in the ultra-small data limit. Explanations of their internal machinery are produced using local interpretability techniques and are faithful and consistent with domain expert rationales. This language-centric framework makes accurate property predictions accessible to people without artificial-intelligence expertise.

We address 2D floorplan reconstruction from 3D scans. Existing approaches typically employ heuristically designed multi-stage pipelines. Instead, we formulate floorplan reconstruction as a single-stage structured prediction task: find a variable-size set of polygons, which in turn are variable-length sequences of ordered vertices. To solve it we develop a novel Transformer architecture that generates polygons of multiple rooms in parallel, in a holistic manner without hand-crafted intermediate stages. The model features two-level queries for polygons and corners, and includes polygon matching to make the network end-to-end trainable. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art for two challenging datasets, Structured3D and SceneCAD, along with significantly faster inference than previous methods. Moreover, it can readily be extended to predict additional information, i.e., semantic room types and architectural elements like doors and windows. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/ywyue/RoomFormer.

Based on the WASSA 2022 Shared Task on Empathy Detection and Emotion Classification, we predict the level of empathic concern and personal distress displayed in essays. For the first stage of this project we implemented a Feed-Forward Neural Network using sentence-level embeddings as features. We experimented with four different embedding models for generating the inputs to the neural network. The subsequent stage builds upon the previous work and we have implemented three types of revisions. The first revision focuses on the enhancements to the model architecture and the training approach. The second revision focuses on handling class imbalance using stratified data sampling. The third revision focuses on leveraging lexical resources, where we apply four different resources to enrich the features associated with the dataset. During the final stage of this project, we have created the final end-to-end system for the primary task using an ensemble of models to revise primary task performance. Additionally, as part of the final stage, these approaches have been adapted to the WASSA 2023 Shared Task on Empathy Emotion and Personality Detection in Interactions, in which the empathic concern, emotion polarity, and emotion intensity in dyadic text conversations are predicted.

Although large language model (LLM) conversational systems process millions of multi-turn dialogues daily, they remain fundamentally reactive: they respond only after the user types a query. A key step toward proactive interaction is next-query prediction, which anticipates the user's subsequent query based solely on the preceding dialogue. Progress on this task is hindered by the lack of dedicated benchmarks and a fundamental efficiency--quality trade-off: naively concatenating full dialogue history incurs linearly growing token consumption, while truncating to the latest turn discards crucial cross-turn context. Our key insight is that accurate prediction does not require re-reading raw history; it suffices to track the user's evolving intent trajectory across topics, unresolved needs, and interest shifts. We propose OnePred, which maintains a recursively updated memory as its sole cross-turn context, bounding the per-turn cost independently of conversation length. We train the model via a two-stage reinforcement learning pipeline that first teaches what to predict, then what to compress, shaping the memory into a prediction-oriented intent chain. To establish a rigorous testbed, we introduce NQP-Bench, spanning three diverse subsets. Experiments demonstrate that OnePred reduces per-turn token consumption by up to 22times compared to full-history inputs while consistently exceeding all baselines in prediction quality, with larger gains on longer conversations. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZBWpro/OnePred.

Speech-to-speech models handle turn-taking naturally but offer limited support for tool-calling or complex reasoning, while production ASR-LLM-TTS voice pipelines offer these capabilities but rely on silence timeouts, which lead to unnatural turn-taking. We present DualTurn, which narrows this gap through generative pretraining on dual-channel conversational audio. The model generates both speakers' future audio autoregressively, implicitly learning conversational dynamics without any labels, and is then fine-tuned to predict interpretable turn-taking signals that map directly to agent actions. DualTurn monitors both channels continuously, anticipating turn boundaries and producing five agent actions. On standard benchmarks, DualTurn (0.5B) outperforms both VAP on agent action prediction (wF1 0.633 vs. 0.389) and a 3.1B audio-text model on word-level turn prediction (AUC 0.930 vs. 0.880), while anticipating turn boundaries earlier with fewer interruptions.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Syntactic and pragmatic completeness is known to be important for turn-taking prediction, but so far machine learning models of turn-taking have used such linguistic information in a limited way. In this paper, we introduce TurnGPT, a transformer-based language model for predicting turn-shifts in spoken dialog. The model has been trained and evaluated on a variety of written and spoken dialog datasets. We show that the model outperforms two baselines used in prior work. We also report on an ablation study, as well as attention and gradient analyses, which show that the model is able to utilize the dialog context and pragmatic completeness for turn-taking prediction. Finally, we explore the model's potential in not only detecting, but also projecting, turn-completions.

Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) enables LLMs to solve complex tasks through iterative tool interactions. However, existing reinforcement learning methods often rely on trajectory-level supervision, limiting fine-grained credit assignment in long-horizon TIR scenarios. On-policy self-distillation offers denser signals through teacher branches with privileged context, but existing approaches typically derive such context from ground-truth answers or retrieved skills, which may not reflect the states actually visited by the agent. Moreover, token-level supervision fails to capture the turn-level structure of tool interactions. To address this, we propose TurnSight, a turn-level hindsight self-distillation framework that derives supervision directly from execution-conditioned hindsight. It then constructs multiple hindsight views with different lookahead horizons and selects reliable supervision through cross-horizon directional agreement. Finally, the selected hindsight signal is normalized across sibling rollouts and used to adaptively modulate RL advantages while preserving their original optimization direction. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of TurnSight. Our codes are available at https://github.com/quchangle1/TurnSight.

This paper presents two variations of a novel stochastic prediction algorithm that enables mobile robots to accurately and robustly predict the future state of complex dynamic scenes. The proposed algorithm uses a variational autoencoder to predict a range of possible future states of the environment. The algorithm takes full advantage of the motion of the robot itself, the motion of dynamic objects, and the geometry of static objects in the scene to improve prediction accuracy. Three simulated and real-world datasets collected by different robot models are used to demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to achieve more accurate and robust prediction performance than other prediction algorithms. Furthermore, a predictive uncertainty-aware planner is proposed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed predictor in simulation and real-world navigation experiments. Implementations are open source at https://github.com/TempleRAIL/SOGMP.

Activation steering offers a lightweight approach to control language models' behavior at inference time, but whether it succeeds or fails heavily depends on the prompt, concept, model, and steering configuration. Finding the regime and boundaries of successful steering typically requires expensive grid searches and post-hoc evaluation of full autoregressive rollouts. In this work, we investigate whether steerability can be predicted from the model's internal states at the beginning of the generation process, e.g., after generating the first few tokens, and how to leverage such a predictor to improve steering success rate. To this end, we first introduce ASTEER, a testbed including 1.4M steered generations, spanning 150 concepts with each steering success/failure labeled. Leveraging this testbed, we analyze the model's early decoding dynamics by extracting features that compare hidden states before and after steering across layers and initial decoding steps. These features help us understand how steering's effects propagate along layers and token positions, which provide key information for steerability prediction. We then train a Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT) classifier on these features to predict whether an intervention will under-steer, succeed, or over-steer without requiring full rollout. Our predictor achieves around 0.7 macro-F1 score on unseen concepts, demonstrating that early hidden states encode substantial, structured information about eventual steering efficacy. We further leverage this steerability predictor as guidance for steering strength searching, achieving near-optimal performance with a small fraction of decoding cost.

A demonstration of a real-time and continuous turn-taking prediction system is presented. The system is based on a voice activity projection (VAP) model, which directly maps dialogue stereo audio to future voice activities. The VAP model includes contrastive predictive coding (CPC) and self-attention transformers, followed by a cross-attention transformer. We examine the effect of the input context audio length and demonstrate that the proposed system can operate in real-time with CPU settings, with minimal performance degradation.

Internal modelling of the world -- predicting transitions between previous states X and next states Y under actions Z -- is essential to reasoning and planning for LLMs and VLMs. Learning such models typically requires costly action-labelled trajectories. We propose SWIRL, a self-improvement framework that learns from state-only sequences by treating actions as a latent variable and alternating between Forward World Modelling (FWM) P_θ(Y|X,Z) and an Inverse Dynamics Modelling (IDM) Q_φ(Z|X,Y). SWIRL iterates two phases: (1) Variational Information Maximisation, which updates the FWM to generate next states that maximise conditional mutual information with latent actions given prior states, encouraging identifiable consistency; and (2) ELBO Maximisation, which updates the IDM to explain observed transitions, effectively performing coordinate ascent. Both models are trained with reinforcement learning (specifically, GRPO) with the opposite frozen model's log-probability as a reward signal. We provide theoretical learnability guarantees for both updates, and evaluate SWIRL on LLMs and VLMs across multiple environments: single-turn and multi-turn open-world visual dynamics and synthetic textual environments for physics, web, and tool calling. SWIRL achieves gains of 16% on AURORABench, 28% on ByteMorph, 16% on WorldPredictionBench, and 14% on StableToolBench.

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

Predicting the motion of other agents in a scene is highly relevant for autonomous driving, as it allows a self-driving car to anticipate. Inspired by the success of decoder-only models for language modeling, we propose DONUT, a Decoder-Only Network for Unrolling Trajectories. Unlike existing encoder-decoder forecasting models, we encode historical trajectories and predict future trajectories with a single autoregressive model. This allows the model to make iterative predictions in a consistent manner, and ensures that the model is always provided with up-to-date information, thereby enhancing performance. Furthermore, inspired by multi-token prediction for language modeling, we introduce an 'overprediction' strategy that gives the model the auxiliary task of predicting trajectories at longer temporal horizons. This allows the model to better anticipate the future and further improves performance. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our decoder-only approach outperforms the encoder-decoder baseline, and achieves new state-of-the-art results on the Argoverse 2 single-agent motion forecasting benchmark.

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.

End-to-end autonomous driving has emerged as a compelling paradigm for learning planning directly from sensor observations, while recent world-model-based approaches further enrich this paradigm by enabling explicit reasoning about how the scene may evolve in the future. Yet future prediction alone does not guarantee better planning unless the predicted evolution can be converted into planning-relevant trajectory updates. Many current methods still forecast future scene states without explicitly decoding the motion implications hidden in state transitions. As a result, future reasoning often remains descriptively useful but only weakly coupled to executable motion generation. To address this limitation, we propose IDOL, an inverse-dynamics-guided future prediction framework for world-model-based end-to-end planning in latent BEV space, where inverse dynamics serves as the key bridge between future prediction and trajectory optimization. IDOL first predicts multiple future latent scene states with a BEV world model, then applies an inverse dynamics model to adjacent latent futures to decode transition-aware trajectory features and recover planning-relevant motion deltas that explain how the latent world evolves over time. These inverse-dynamics-derived signals are used to optimize the planned trajectory, turning future forecasting from passive scene anticipation into actionable planning guidance. A lightweight closed-loop refinement module further improves long-horizon consistency by reusing the optimized trajectory for another round of future-aware reasoning. By introducing inverse dynamics into latent future reasoning, IDOL tightens the coupling between world modeling and planning. Extensive experiments on the NAVSIM v1 and NAVSIM v2 benchmarks show that IDOL achieves state-of-the-art performance among comparable methods.

Recent progress in multi-turn reinforcement learning (RL) has significantly improved reasoning LLMs' performances on complex interactive tasks. Despite advances in stabilization techniques such as fine-grained credit assignment and trajectory filtering, instability remains pervasive and often leads to training collapse. We argue that this instability stems from inefficient exploration in multi-turn settings, where policies continue to generate low-information actions that neither reduce uncertainty nor advance task progress. To address this issue, we propose Token- and Turn-level Policy Optimization (T^2PO), an uncertainty-aware framework that explicitly controls exploration at fine-grained levels. At the token level, T^2PO monitors uncertainty dynamics and triggers a thinking intervention once the marginal uncertainty change falls below a threshold. At the turn level, T^2PO identifies interactions with negligible exploration progress and dynamically resamples such turns to avoid wasted rollouts. We evaluate T^2PO in diverse environments, including WebShop, ALFWorld, and Search QA, demonstrating substantial gains in training stability and performance improvements with better exploration efficiency. Code is available at: https://github.com/WillDreamer/T2PO.

Long-horizon LLM agents depend on intermediate information-gathering turns, yet training feedback is usually observed only at the final answer, because process-level rewards require high-quality human annotation. Existing turn-level shaping methods reward turns that increase the likelihood of a gold answer, but they require answer supervision or stable task-specific verifiers. Conversely, label-free RL methods extract self-signals from output distributions, but mainly at the answer or trajectory level and therefore cannot assign credit to intermediate turns. We propose Self-Induced Outcome Potential (SIOP), which treats semantic clusters of final answers as latent future outcome states for potential-based turn-level credit assignment. For each query, SIOP samples multiple rollouts, clusters final answers into semantic outcome modes, and builds a reliability-aware target distribution over these states. It then rewards turns for increasing posterior support for reliable future states using a tractable cluster-level approximation. The objective generalizes information-potential shaping from gold-answer supervision to settings without task-specific gold verifiers while avoiding the broadcasted rollout-level advantages used by standard GRPO. We formalize the framework, characterize its supervised gold-answer limit, and show that SIOP improves average performance over verifier-free outcome-level baselines on seven search-augmented agentic reasoning benchmarks while approaching a gold-supervised outcome baseline. Code is available at https://github.com/dl-m9/SIOP.git.

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the model to make incorrect forecasts in unfamiliar situations. We propose a self-supervised method that trains a decoder in a post-hoc fashion on the self-supervised task of forecasting the second half of observed trajectories from the first half. The L2 norm of the gradient of this forecasting loss with respect to the decoder's final layer defines a score to identify distribution shifts. Our approach, first, does not affect the trajectory prediction model, ensuring no interference with original prediction performance and second, demonstrates substantial improvements on distribution shift detection for trajectory prediction on the Shifts and Argoverse datasets. Moreover, we show that this method can also be used to early detect collisions of a deep Q-Network motion planner in the Highway simulator. Source code is available at https://github.com/Michedev/forecasting-the-past.

Full-duplex interaction is crucial for natural human-machine communication, yet remains challenging as it requires robust turn-taking detection to decide when the system should speak, listen, or remain silent. Existing solutions either rely on dedicated turn-taking models, most of which are not open-sourced. The few available ones are limited by their large parameter size or by supporting only a single modality, such as acoustic or linguistic. Alternatively, some approaches finetune LLM backbones to enable full-duplex capability, but this requires large amounts of full-duplex data, which remain scarce in open-source form. To address these issues, we propose Easy Turn, an open-source, modular turn-taking detection model that integrates acoustic and linguistic bimodal information to predict four dialogue turn states: complete, incomplete, backchannel, and wait, accompanied by the release of Easy Turn trainset, a 1,145-hour speech dataset designed for training turn-taking detection models. Compared to existing open-source models like TEN Turn Detection and Smart Turn V2, our model achieves state-of-the-art turn-taking detection accuracy on our open-source Easy Turn testset. The data and model will be made publicly available on GitHub.

Motion forecasting for autonomous driving is a challenging task because complex driving scenarios result in a heterogeneous mix of static and dynamic inputs. It is an open problem how best to represent and fuse information about road geometry, lane connectivity, time-varying traffic light state, and history of a dynamic set of agents and their interactions into an effective encoding. To model this diverse set of input features, many approaches proposed to design an equally complex system with a diverse set of modality specific modules. This results in systems that are difficult to scale, extend, or tune in rigorous ways to trade off quality and efficiency. In this paper, we present Wayformer, a family of attention based architectures for motion forecasting that are simple and homogeneous. Wayformer offers a compact model description consisting of an attention based scene encoder and a decoder. In the scene encoder we study the choice of early, late and hierarchical fusion of the input modalities. For each fusion type we explore strategies to tradeoff efficiency and quality via factorized attention or latent query attention. We show that early fusion, despite its simplicity of construction, is not only modality agnostic but also achieves state-of-the-art results on both Waymo Open MotionDataset (WOMD) and Argoverse leaderboards, demonstrating the effectiveness of our design philosophy

Recent advances in large multimodal models have leveraged image-based tools with reinforcement learning to tackle visual problems. However, existing open-source approaches often exhibit monotonous reasoning patterns and allow only a limited number of interaction turns, making them inadequate for difficult tasks that require trial-and-error exploration. In this work, we address this limitation by scaling up tool-based interactions and introduce Mini-o3, a system that executes deep, multi-turn reasoning -- spanning tens of steps -- and achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging visual search tasks. Our recipe for reproducing OpenAI o3-style behaviors comprises three key components. First, we construct the Visual Probe Dataset, a collection of thousands of challenging visual search problems designed for exploratory reasoning. Second, we develop an iterative data collection pipeline to obtain cold-start trajectories that exhibit diverse reasoning patterns, including depth-first search, trial-and-error, and goal maintenance. Third, we propose an over-turn masking strategy that prevents penalization of over-turn responses (those that hit the maximum number of turns) during reinforcement learning, thereby balancing training-time efficiency with test-time scalability. Despite training with an upper bound of only six interaction turns, our model generates trajectories that naturally scale to tens of turns at inference time, with accuracy improving as the number of turns increases. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Mini-o3 produces rich reasoning patterns and deep thinking paths, effectively solving challenging visual search problems.

Language-model agents are increasingly used as persistent coworkers that assist users across multiple working days. During such workflows, the surrounding environment may change independently of the agent: new emails arrive, calendar entries shift, knowledge-base records are updated, and evidence appears across images, scanned PDFs, audio, video, and spreadsheets. Existing benchmarks do not adequately evaluate this setting because they typically run within a single static episode and remain largely text-centric. We introduce , a benchmark for coworker agents built around multi-turn multi-day tasks, a stateful sandboxed service environment whose state evolves between turns, and rule-based verification. The current release contains 100 tasks across 13 professional scenarios, executed against five stateful sandboxed services (filesystem, email, calendar, knowledge base, spreadsheet) and scored by 1537 deterministic Python checkers over post-execution service state; no LLM-as-judge is invoked during scoring. We benchmark seven frontier agent systems. The strongest model reaches 75.8 weighted score, but the best strict Task Success is only 20.0\%, indicating that partial progress is common while complete end-to-end workflow completion remains rare. Turn-level analysis shows that performance drops after the first exogenous environment update, highlighting adaptation to changing state as a key open challenge. We release the benchmark, evaluation harness, and construction pipeline to support reproducible coworker-agent evaluation.

Reasoning system dynamics is one of the most important analytical approaches for many scientific studies. With the initial state of a system as input, the recent graph neural networks (GNNs)-based methods are capable of predicting the future state distant in time with high accuracy. Although these methods have diverse designs in modeling the coordinates and interacting forces of the system, we show that they actually share a common paradigm that learns the integration of the velocity over the interval between the initial and terminal coordinates. However, their integrand is constant w.r.t. time. Inspired by this observation, we propose a new approach to predict the integration based on several velocity estimations with Newton-Cotes formulas and prove its effectiveness theoretically. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks empirically demonstrate consistent and significant improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

Despite recent advances, efficient and robust turn-taking detection remains a significant challenge in industrial-grade Voice AI agent deployments. Many existing systems rely solely on acoustic or semantic cues, leading to suboptimal accuracy and stability, while recent attempts to endow large language models with full-duplex capabilities require costly full-duplex data and incur substantial training and deployment overheads, limiting real-time performance. In this paper, we propose JAL-Turn, a lightweight and efficient speech-only turn-taking framework that adopts a joint acoustic-linguistic modeling paradigm, in which a cross-attention module adaptively integrates pre-trained acoustic representations with linguistic features to support low-latency prediction of hold vs shift states. By sharing a frozen ASR encoder, JAL-Turn enables turn-taking prediction to run fully in parallel with speech recognition, introducing no additional end-to-end latency or computational overhead. In addition, we introduce a scalable data construction pipeline that automatically derives reliable turn-taking labels from large-scale real-world dialogue corpora. Extensive experiments on public multilingual benchmarks and an in-house Japanese customer-service dataset show that JAL-Turn consistently outperforms strong state-of-the-art baselines in detection accuracy while maintaining superior real-time performance.

Combining motion prediction and motion planning offers a promising framework for enhancing interactions between automated vehicles and other traffic participants. However, this introduces challenges in conditioning predictions on navigation goals and ensuring stable, kinematically feasible trajectories. Addressing the former challenge, this paper investigates the extension of attention-based motion prediction models with navigation information. By integrating the ego vehicle's intended route and goal pose into the model architecture, we bridge the gap between multi-agent motion prediction and goal-based motion planning. We propose and evaluate several architectural navigation integration strategies to our model on the nuPlan dataset. Our results demonstrate the potential of prediction-driven motion planning, highlighting how navigation information can enhance both prediction and planning tasks. Our implementation is at: https://github.com/KIT-MRT/future-motion.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Despite remarkable progress in driving world models, their potential for autonomous systems remains largely untapped: the world models are mostly learned for world simulation and decoupled from trajectory planning. While recent efforts aim to unify world modeling and planning in a single framework, the synergistic facilitation mechanism of world modeling for planning still requires further exploration. In this work, we introduce a new driving paradigm named Policy World Model (PWM), which not only integrates world modeling and trajectory planning within a unified architecture, but is also able to benefit planning using the learned world knowledge through the proposed action-free future state forecasting scheme. Through collaborative state-action prediction, PWM can mimic the human-like anticipatory perception, yielding more reliable planning performance. To facilitate the efficiency of video forecasting, we further introduce a dynamically enhanced parallel token generation mechanism, equipped with a context-guided tokenizer and an adaptive dynamic focal loss. Despite utilizing only front camera input, our method matches or exceeds state-of-the-art approaches that rely on multi-view and multi-modal inputs. Code and model weights will be released at https://github.com/6550Zhao/Policy-World-Model.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

Multi-agent trajectory prediction at signalized intersections is crucial for developing efficient intelligent transportation systems and safe autonomous driving systems. Due to the complexity of intersection scenarios and the limitations of single-vehicle perception, the performance of vehicle-centric prediction methods has reached a plateau. In this paper, we introduce an Infrastructure-to-Everything (I2X) collaborative prediction scheme. In this scheme, roadside units (RSUs) independently forecast the future trajectories of all vehicles and transmit these predictions unidirectionally to subscribing vehicles. Building on this scheme, we propose I2XTraj, a dedicated infrastructure-based trajectory prediction model. I2XTraj leverages real-time traffic signal states, prior maneuver strategy knowledge, and multi-agent interactions to generate accurate, joint multi-modal trajectory prediction. First, a continuous signal-informed mechanism is proposed to adaptively process real-time traffic signals to guide trajectory proposal generation under varied intersection configurations. Second, a driving strategy awareness mechanism estimates the joint distribution of maneuver strategies by integrating spatial priors of intersection areas with dynamic vehicle states, enabling coverage of the full set of feasible maneuvers. Third, a spatial-temporal-mode attention network models multi-agent interactions to refine and adjust joint trajectory outputs.Finally, I2XTraj is evaluated on two real-world datasets of signalized intersections, the V2X-Seq and the SinD drone dataset. In both single-infrastructure and online collaborative scenarios, our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods by over 30\% on V2X-Seq and 15\% on SinD, demonstrating strong generalizability and robustness.

Motion behaviour is driven by several factors -- goals, presence and actions of neighbouring agents, social relations, physical and social norms, the environment with its variable characteristics, and further. Most factors are not directly observable and must be modelled from context. Trajectory prediction, is thus a hard problem, and has seen increasing attention from researchers in the recent years. Prediction of motion, in application, must be realistic, diverse and controllable. In spite of increasing focus on multimodal trajectory generation, most methods still lack means for explicitly controlling different modes of the data generation. Further, most endeavours invest heavily in designing special mechanisms to learn the interactions in latent space. We present Conditional Speed GAN (CSG), that allows controlled generation of diverse and socially acceptable trajectories, based on user controlled speed. During prediction, CSG forecasts future speed from latent space and conditions its generation based on it. CSG is comparable to state-of-the-art GAN methods in terms of the benchmark distance metrics, while being simple and useful for simulation and data augmentation for different contexts such as fast or slow paced environments. Additionally, we compare the effect of different aggregation mechanisms and show that a naive approach of concatenation works comparable to its attention and pooling alternatives.

Analyzing and forecasting trajectories of agents like pedestrians and cars in complex scenes has become more and more significant in many intelligent systems and applications. The diversity and uncertainty in socially interactive behaviors among a rich variety of agents make this task more challenging than other deterministic computer vision tasks. Researchers have made a lot of efforts to quantify the effects of these interactions on future trajectories through different mathematical models and network structures, but this problem has not been well solved. Inspired by marine animals that localize the positions of their companions underwater through echoes, we build a new anglebased trainable social interaction representation, named SocialCircle, for continuously reflecting the context of social interactions at different angular orientations relative to the target agent. We validate the effect of the proposed SocialCircle by training it along with several newly released trajectory prediction models, and experiments show that the SocialCircle not only quantitatively improves the prediction performance, but also qualitatively helps better simulate social interactions when forecasting pedestrian trajectories in a way that is consistent with human intuitions.

The ability to predict collision-free future trajectories from egocentric observations is crucial in applications such as humanoid robotics, VR / AR, and assistive navigation. In this work, we introduce the challenging problem of predicting a sequence of future 6D head poses from an egocentric video. In particular, we predict both head translations and rotations to learn the active information-gathering behavior expressed through head-turning events. To solve this task, we propose a framework that reasons over temporally aggregated 3D latent features, which models the geometric and semantic constraints for both the static and dynamic parts of the environment. Motivated by the lack of training data in this space, we further contribute a data collection pipeline using the Project Aria glasses, and present a dataset collected through this approach. Our dataset, dubbed Aria Navigation Dataset (AND), consists of 4 hours of recording of users navigating in real-world scenarios. It includes diverse situations and navigation behaviors, providing a valuable resource for learning real-world egocentric navigation policies. Extensive experiments show that our model learns human-like navigation behaviors such as waiting / slowing down, rerouting, and looking around for traffic while generalizing to unseen environments. Check out our project webpage at https://sites.google.com/stanford.edu/lookout.

Motion forecasting is an essential task for autonomous driving, and utilizing information from infrastructure and other vehicles can enhance forecasting capabilities. Existing research mainly focuses on leveraging single-frame cooperative information to enhance the limited perception capability of the ego vehicle, while underutilizing the motion and interaction context of traffic participants observed from cooperative devices. In this paper, we propose a forecasting-oriented representation paradigm to utilize motion and interaction features from cooperative information. Specifically, we present V2X-Graph, a representative framework to achieve interpretable and end-to-end trajectory feature fusion for cooperative motion forecasting. V2X-Graph is evaluated on V2X-Seq in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) scenarios. To further evaluate on vehicle-to-everything (V2X) scenario, we construct the first real-world V2X motion forecasting dataset V2X-Traj, which contains multiple autonomous vehicles and infrastructure in every scenario. Experimental results on both V2X-Seq and V2X-Traj show the advantage of our method. We hope both V2X-Graph and V2X-Traj will benefit the further development of cooperative motion forecasting. Find the project at https://github.com/AIR-THU/V2X-Graph.

Autonomous driving requires safe planning, but most learning-based planners lack explicit self-correction ability: once an unsafe action is proposed, there is no mechanism to correct it. Thus, we propose CorrectionPlanner, an autoregressive planner with self-correction that models planning as motion-token generation within a propose, evaluate, and correct loop. At each planning step, the policy proposes an action, namely a motion token, and a learned collision critic predicts whether it will induce a collision within a short horizon. If the critic predicts a collision, we retain the sequence of historical unsafe motion tokens as a self-correction trace, generate the next motion token conditioned on it, and repeat this process until a safe motion token is proposed or the safety criterion is met. This self-correction trace, consisting of all unsafe motion tokens, represents the planner's correction process in motion-token space, analogous to a reasoning trace in language models. We train the planner with imitation learning followed by model-based reinforcement learning using rollouts from a pretrained world model that realistically models agents' reactive behaviors. Closed-loop evaluations show that CorrectionPlanner reduces collision rate by over 20% on Waymax and achieves state-of-the-art planning scores on nuPlan.

Different research lines use the term world model in different ways, yet they share a common aim: to capture how the world evolves under action in a form that supports perception, simulation, and planning. Two prominent realizations are neural predictors that learn dynamics in continuous vector spaces, and hand-built physics engines that expose explicit state and physical laws. Neural predictors scale from data but leave the form of the dynamics implicit; physics engines are inspectable and editable but difficult to construct at scale. We introduce VisualPatchWorld (VPW), which represents world dynamics as code. VPW first selects a qualitative dynamical form with short active probes, then fits that form's free parameters from recorded state-action traces by minimizing multi-step prediction error. The resulting programs can be rolled forward like a simulator, inspected in source form, and used inside model-predictive control; image-derived scene graphs can supply the live state at replan time. Across comparisons with prior code-based world models, VPW attains 69.0% mean planning success and exceeds the strongest code baseline by 23.5 points. The largest gains arise when choosing the correct qualitative dynamics is essential. Under the same planner, the induced models approach ground-truth engine success on navigation and grasp-rich control; a residual gap remains for contact-rich pushing, and checking a shortlist of promising plans in the engine closes most of that gap. These results establish a practical route toward automatically constructed code world models that are useful for planning. Code is available at https://github.com/HKBU-KnowComp/VisualPatchWorld/.

Reliable forecasting of the future behavior of road agents is a critical component to safe planning in autonomous vehicles. Here, we represent continuous trajectories as sequences of discrete motion tokens and cast multi-agent motion prediction as a language modeling task over this domain. Our model, MotionLM, provides several advantages: First, it does not require anchors or explicit latent variable optimization to learn multimodal distributions. Instead, we leverage a single standard language modeling objective, maximizing the average log probability over sequence tokens. Second, our approach bypasses post-hoc interaction heuristics where individual agent trajectory generation is conducted prior to interactive scoring. Instead, MotionLM produces joint distributions over interactive agent futures in a single autoregressive decoding process. In addition, the model's sequential factorization enables temporally causal conditional rollouts. The proposed approach establishes new state-of-the-art performance for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset, ranking 1st on the interactive challenge leaderboard.

Interactive game world models typically autoregress visual observations directly in pixel or latent space, forcing structured properties such as pose, geometry, and occlusion to be implicitly maintained by the same generative sequence. Over long horizons, errors in these latent world properties accumulate, making consistency and controllability fragile. We explicitly model the evolving world state, delegate exact geometric computation to a fixed, zero-parameter renderer, and leave the neural model to synthesize appearance. We instantiate this idea as Marionette, a world model for interactive games with articulated characters. First, a two-stage autoregressive dynamics model predicts an explicit and interpretable 276-dimensional 3D world state comprising multi-entity articulated skeletons, metric root trajectories, and rotations. Second, a zero-parameter graphics bridge converts the predicted state into pose-control videos, computing world-space geometry and occlusion in closed form. Third, a control-conditioned video-diffusion observation model synthesizes photorealistic RGB observations from the resulting structured controls. Our experiments establish two properties of Marionette. First, the predicted world state is directly controllable. Forcing a mismatched action stream changes root-aligned joint error by 31% across 48 held-out segments. Second, long-horizon behaviour is determined in the state, and can be repaired there. Left free, the two generated characters drift to 21.2 m apart (recorded sessions stay near 5 m) and a third of frames show ground penetration. Two rules imposed on the explicit state, a terrain collider and a separation cap, cut penetration by 66% and keep the pair engaged, with no change to the observation model. Routing appearance through the predicted state costs no fidelity we can detect, at an FVD of 831 against 799 for recorded pose.

The modeling of turn-taking in dialog can be viewed as the modeling of the dynamics of voice activity of the interlocutors. We extend prior work and define the predictive task of Voice Activity Projection, a general, self-supervised objective, as a way to train turn-taking models without the need of labeled data. We highlight a theoretical weakness with prior approaches, arguing for the need of modeling the dependency of voice activity events in the projection window. We propose four zero-shot tasks, related to the prediction of upcoming turn-shifts and backchannels, and show that the proposed model outperforms prior work.

The maritime industry's continuous commitment to sustainability has led to a dedicated exploration of methods to reduce vessel fuel consumption. This paper undertakes this challenge through a machine learning approach, leveraging a real-world dataset spanning two years of a ferry in west coast Canada. Our focus centers on the creation of a time series forecasting model given the dynamic and static states, actions, and disturbances. This model is designed to predict dynamic states based on the actions provided, subsequently serving as an evaluative tool to assess the proficiency of the ferry's operation under the captain's guidance. Additionally, it lays the foundation for future optimization algorithms, providing valuable feedback on decision-making processes. To facilitate future studies, our code is available at https://github.com/pagand/model_optimze_vessel/tree/AAAI

Existing driving automation (DA) systems on production vehicles rely on human drivers to decide when to engage DA while requiring them to remain continuously attentive and ready to intervene. This design demands substantial situational judgment and imposes significant cognitive load, leading to steep learning curves, suboptimal user experience, and safety risks from both over-reliance and delayed takeover. Predicting when drivers hand over control to DA and when they take it back is therefore critical for designing proactive, context-aware HMI, yet existing datasets rarely capture the multimodal context, including road scene, driver state, vehicle dynamics, and route environment. To fill this gap, we introduce BATON, a large-scale naturalistic dataset capturing real-world DA usage across 127 drivers, and 136.6 hours of driving. The dataset synchronizes front-view video, in-cabin video, decoded CAN bus signals, radar-based lead-vehicle interaction, and GPS-derived route context, forming a closed-loop multimodal record around each control transition. We define three benchmark tasks: driving action understanding, handover prediction, and takeover prediction, and evaluate baselines spanning sequence models, classical classifiers, and zero-shot VLMs. Results show that visual input alone is insufficient for reliable transition prediction: front-view video captures road context but not driver state, while in-cabin video reflects driver readiness but not the external scene. Incorporating CAN and route-context signals substantially improves performance over video-only settings, indicating strong complementarity across modalities. We further find takeover events develop more gradually and benefit from longer prediction horizons, whereas handover events depend more on immediate contextual cues, revealing an asymmetry with direct implications for HMI design in assisted driving systems.

In the field of autonomous driving, there have been many excellent perception models for object detection, semantic segmentation, and other tasks, but how can we effectively use the perception models for vehicle planning? Traditional autonomous vehicle trajectory prediction methods not only need to obey traffic rules to avoid collisions, but also need to follow the prescribed route to reach the destination. In this paper, we propose a Transformer-based trajectory prediction network for end-to-end autonomous driving without rules called Target-point Attention Transformer network (TAT). We use the attention mechanism to realize the interaction between the predicted trajectory and the perception features as well as target-points. We demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms existing conditional imitation learning and GRU-based methods, significantly reducing the occurrence of accidents and improving route completion. We evaluate our approach in complex closed loop driving scenarios in cities using the CARLA simulator and achieve state-of-the-art performance.

Predicting the motion of multiple traffic participants has always been one of the most challenging tasks in autonomous driving. The recently proposed occupancy flow field prediction method has shown to be a more effective and scalable representation compared to general trajectory prediction methods. However, in complex multi-agent traffic scenarios, it remains difficult to model the interactions among various factors and the dependencies among prediction outputs at different time steps. In view of this, we propose a transformer-based hierarchical feature guided network (HGNET), which can efficiently extract features of agents and map information from visual and vectorized inputs, modeling multimodal interaction relationships. Second, we design the Feature-Guided Attention (FGAT) module to leverage the potential guiding effects between different prediction targets, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, to enhance the temporal consistency and causal relationships of the predictions, we propose a Time Series Memory framework to learn the conditional distribution models of the prediction outputs at future time steps from multivariate time series. The results demonstrate that our model exhibits competitive performance, which ranks 3rd in the 2024 Waymo Occupancy and Flow Prediction Challenge.

While low-latency interaction is critical for spoken dialogue, cascaded architectures are often bottlenecked by reactive turn-completion detection. We propose Endpoint Anticipation, shifting from reactive detection to proactive forecasting of end-of-turn signals. Our speech-based model anticipates endpoints upto 2.56 seconds in advance, enabling speculative execution of LLM and TTS pipelines on partial context. We introduce metrics to quantify the trade-off between realized latency reduction and computational redundancy. Evaluation across conversational and task-oriented datasets shows our model consistently outperforms competitive VAP-based baselines. Integration with the Unmute framework demonstrates a 505 ms average latency reduction with a 28.4% increase in speculative computation, effectively masking sequential bottlenecks to enable complex reasoning in real-time speech-to-speech interaction.

LLM agents have emerged as powerful systems for tackling multi-turn tasks by interleaving internal reasoning and external tool interactions. Agentic Reinforcement Learning has recently drawn significant research attention as a critical post-training paradigm to further refine these capabilities. In this paper, we present AT^2PO (Agentic Turn-based Policy Optimization via Tree Search), a unified framework for multi-turn agentic RL that addresses three core challenges: limited exploration diversity, sparse credit assignment, and misaligned policy optimization. AT^2PO introduces a turn-level tree structure that jointly enables Entropy-Guided Tree Expansion for strategic exploration and Turn-wise Credit Assignment for fine-grained reward propagation from sparse outcomes. Complementing this, we propose Agentic Turn-based Policy Optimization, a turn-level learning objective that aligns policy updates with the natural decision granularity of agentic interactions. ATPO is orthogonal to tree search and can be readily integrated into any multi-turn RL pipeline. Experiments across seven benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements over the state-of-the-art baseline by up to 1.84 percentage points in average, with ablation studies validating the effectiveness of each component. Our code is available at https://github.com/zzfoutofspace/ATPO.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student policy by matching a stronger teacher on the student's own trajectories, offering a promising framework for language agent training. However, its application to long-horizon agentic tasks remains insufficiently explored. We identify two key inefficiencies in vanilla agent OPD: (1) full-horizon rollouts often waste wall-clock resources on tail turns that provide weak and noisy KL supervision, and (2) trajectory-level KL objectives concentrate most of the loss on shallow tokens, leaving deeper decision turns under-trained once initial behaviors are aligned. To address these challenges, we propose TurnOPD, a turn-level budgeting strategy for efficient on-policy distillation of long-horizon agents. TurnOPD consists of two budget controllers: adaptive rollout-depth budgeting, which uses probe-based turn statistics to determine rollout length, and progressive turn-normalized loss budgeting, which gradually shifts KL weighting from token-level to turn-balanced supervision. Experiments on ALFWorld, WebShop, and Multi-Hop Search with task-specialized teacher models show that TurnOPD achieves superior validation accuracy under equal wall-clock training budgets and advances the accuracy--time frontier beyond vanilla OPD.

Autonomous vehicles operating in complex real-world environments require accurate predictions of interactive behaviors between traffic participants. This paper tackles the interaction prediction problem by formulating it with hierarchical game theory and proposing the GameFormer model for its implementation. The model incorporates a Transformer encoder, which effectively models the relationships between scene elements, alongside a novel hierarchical Transformer decoder structure. At each decoding level, the decoder utilizes the prediction outcomes from the previous level, in addition to the shared environmental context, to iteratively refine the interaction process. Moreover, we propose a learning process that regulates an agent's behavior at the current level to respond to other agents' behaviors from the preceding level. Through comprehensive experiments on large-scale real-world driving datasets, we demonstrate the state-of-the-art accuracy of our model on the Waymo interaction prediction task. Additionally, we validate the model's capacity to jointly reason about the motion plan of the ego agent and the behaviors of multiple agents in both open-loop and closed-loop planning tests, outperforming various baseline methods. Furthermore, we evaluate the efficacy of our model on the nuPlan planning benchmark, where it achieves leading performance.

Recent advances have established a new machine learning paradigm based on scaling up compute at inference time as well as at training time. In that line of work, a combination of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on synthetic demonstrations and Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) is used for training Large Language Models to expend extra compute during inference in the form of "thoughts" expressed in natural language. In this paper, we propose to instead format these tokens as a multi-turn interaction trace with a stateful tool. At each turn, the new state of the tool is appended to the context of the model, whose job is to generate the tokens necessary to control the tool via a custom DSL. We benchmark this approach on the problem of repairing malfunctioning Python code, and show that this constrained setup allows for faster sampling of experience and a denser reward signal, allowing even models of size up to 3B parameters to learn how to proficiently expend additional compute on the task.

Next Location Prediction is a fundamental task in the study of human mobility, with wide-ranging applications in transportation planning, urban governance, and epidemic forecasting. In practice, when humans attempt to predict the next location in a trajectory, they often visualize the trajectory on a map and reason based on road connectivity and movement trends. However, the vast majority of existing next-location prediction models do not reason over maps in the way that humans do. Fortunately, the recent development of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) has demonstrated strong capabilities in visual perception and even visual reasoning. This opens up a new possibility: by rendering both the road network and trajectory onto an image and leveraging the reasoning abilities of VLMs, we can enable models to perform trajectory inference in a human-like manner. To explore this idea, we first propose a method called Vision-Guided Location Search (VGLS), which evaluates whether a general-purpose VLM is capable of trajectory-based reasoning without modifying any of its internal parameters. Based on insights from the VGLS results, we further propose our main approach: VLMLocPredictor, which is composed of two stages: In the first stage, we design two Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) tasks that help the VLM understand road network and trajectory structures and acquire basic reasoning ability on such visual inputs. In the second stage, we introduce Reinforcement Learning from Visual Map Feedback, enabling the model to self-improve its next-location prediction ability through interaction with the environment. Experiments conducted on datasets from four different cities show that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and exhibits superior cross-city generalization compared to other LLM-based approaches.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

Hand trajectory forecasting from egocentric views is crucial for enabling a prompt understanding of human intentions when interacting with AR/VR systems. However, existing methods handle this problem in a 2D image space which is inadequate for 3D real-world applications. In this paper, we set up an egocentric 3D hand trajectory forecasting task that aims to predict hand trajectories in a 3D space from early observed RGB videos in a first-person view. To fulfill this goal, we propose an uncertainty-aware state space Transformer (USST) that takes the merits of the attention mechanism and aleatoric uncertainty within the framework of the classical state-space model. The model can be further enhanced by the velocity constraint and visual prompt tuning (VPT) on large vision transformers. Moreover, we develop an annotation workflow to collect 3D hand trajectories with high quality. Experimental results on H2O and EgoPAT3D datasets demonstrate the superiority of USST for both 2D and 3D trajectory forecasting. The code and datasets are publicly released: https://actionlab-cv.github.io/EgoHandTrajPred.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has re-emerged as a natural approach for training interactive LLM agents in real-world environments. However, directly applying the widely used Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) algorithm to multi-turn tasks exposes notable limitations, particularly in scenarios requiring long-horizon reasoning. To address these challenges, we investigate more stable and effective advantage estimation strategies, especially for multi-turn settings. We first explore Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) as an alternative and find it to be more robust than GRPO. To further enhance PPO in multi-turn scenarios, we introduce turn-PPO, a variant that operates on a turn-level MDP formulation, as opposed to the commonly used token-level MDP. Our results on the WebShop and Sokoban datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of turn-PPO, both with and without long reasoning components.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

Full-duplex spoken language models (FD-SLMs) enable seamless speech interaction by allowing models to listen and speak simultaneously, yet the internal mechanism by which they coordinate listening and speaking remains underexplored. We analyze the predictive behavior encoded in FD-SLM hidden representations and find that they exhibit stream-specific predictive patterns: during listening, they preferentially predict the incoming user stream, whereas during speaking, they preferentially predict the model output stream. Building on this observation, we show that FD-SLMs dynamically modulate their internal predictive focus between two states: a generative state aligned with model output generation and a perceptive state aligned with incoming user input. However, this modulation can lag behind abrupt changes in conversational context. During user interruptions, the model remains transiently biased toward the generative state before transitioning into the perceptive state, causing it to miss the beginning of the incoming input. We term this delayed internal transition state inertia. To quantify its downstream impact, we introduce the Zero-Buffer Benchmark (ZBB), a diagnostic benchmark for evaluating immediate interruption comprehension when user speech begins abruptly. We evaluate this setting using response correctness and initial-word occurrence rate (IWOR). Finally, we mitigate state inertia through activation steering with a perception vector, a training-free intervention with little additional computational overhead. Across multiple state-of-the-art FD-SLMs, activation steering substantially improves interruption handling; for example, on PersonaPlex, it improves correctness from 28% to 45% and IWOR from 40% to 72% without any fine-tuning.

Outcome-driven reinforcement learning has advanced reasoning in large language models (LLMs), but prevailing tool-augmented approaches train a single, monolithic policy that interleaves thoughts and tool calls under full context; this scales poorly with long horizons and diverse tools and generalizes weakly to new scenarios. Agentic systems offer a promising alternative by decomposing work across specialized modules, yet most remain training-free or rely on offline training decoupled from the live dynamics of multi-turn interaction. We introduce AgentFlow, a trainable, in-the-flow agentic framework that coordinates four modules (planner, executor, verifier, generator) through an evolving memory and directly optimizes its planner inside the multi-turn loop. To train on-policy in live environments, we propose Flow-based Group Refined Policy Optimization (Flow-GRPO), which tackles long-horizon, sparse-reward credit assignment by converting multi-turn optimization into a sequence of tractable single-turn policy updates. It broadcasts a single, verifiable trajectory-level outcome to every turn to align local planner decisions with global success and stabilizes learning with group-normalized advantages. Across ten benchmarks, AgentFlow with a 7B-scale backbone outperforms top-performing baselines with average accuracy gains of 14.9% on search, 14.0% on agentic, 14.5% on mathematical, and 4.1% on scientific tasks, even surpassing larger proprietary models like GPT-4o. Further analyses confirm the benefits of in-the-flow optimization, showing improved planning, enhanced tool-calling reliability, and positive scaling with model size and reasoning turns.

Multi-turn long-horizon planning is critical for foundation model agents, yet how to fundamentally improve it remains unclear. Existing models are trained on uncontrollable and opaque Internet data, making it difficult to identify how planning ability is acquired, shaped, and integrated. To address this challenge, we introduce a unified and controlled multi-turn environment that enables precise control. It allows systematically study long-horizon planning across three stages. (1) Planning ability acquisition during pre-training. We study data format, distribution, and quality. Explicit world model construction through CoT state transition modeling yields stronger long-horizon generalization. Atomic skills alone are insufficient for compositional generalization, whereas a litte long-horizon data works. Moreover, suboptimal trajectories severely impair performance because errors amplify over long horizons. (2) Planning ability shaping via GRPO and OPD post-training. Through mutual information, we distinguish general planning patterns from task-specific planning knowledge. For planning patterns, we identify three application regions of post-training: unnecessary, effective, and unsupported. OPD has a broader effective region than GRPO under low-quality and long-horizon settings, as it provides more consistent update directions. For planning knowledge, distilling unseen procedures from a teacher with different knowledge may impair student's prior world modeling without fully establishing new knowledge. (3) Planning ability integration through MOPD post-training. We show that multi-teacher on-policy distillation (MOPD) integrates capabilities by converging to shared planning-pattern across environments. Compatible patterns enable cross-environment generalization, partially shared patterns support continual learning, while completely conflicting patterns cause severe interference.

Maritime vessel maneuvers, characterized by their inherent complexity and indeterminacy, requires vessel trajectory prediction system capable of modeling the multi-modality nature of future motion states. Conventional stochastic trajectory prediction methods utilize latent variables to represent the multi-modality of vessel motion, however, tends to overlook the complexity and dynamics inherent in maritime behavior. In contrast, we explicitly simulate the transition of vessel motion from uncertainty towards a state of certainty, effectively handling future indeterminacy in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we present a novel framework (DiffuTraj) to conceptualize the trajectory prediction task as a guided reverse process of motion pattern uncertainty diffusion, in which we progressively remove uncertainty from maritime regions to delineate the intended trajectory. Specifically, we encode the previous states of the target vessel, vessel-vessel interactions, and the environment context as guiding factors for trajectory generation. Subsequently, we devise a transformer-based conditional denoiser to capture spatio-temporal dependencies, enabling the generation of trajectories better aligned for particular maritime environment. Comprehensive experiments on vessel trajectory prediction benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Recent advances in AudioLLMs have enabled spoken dialogue systems to move beyond turn-based interaction toward real-time full-duplex communication, where the agent must decide when to speak, yield, or interrupt while the user is still talking. Existing full-duplex approaches either rely on voice activity cues, which lack semantic understanding, or on ASR-based modules, which introduce latency and degrade under overlapping speech and noise. Moreover, available datasets rarely capture realistic interaction dynamics, limiting evaluation and deployment. To mitigate the problem, we propose FastTurn, a unified framework for low-latency and robust turn detection. To advance latency while maintaining performance, FastTurn combines streaming CTC decoding with acoustic features, enabling early decisions from partial observations while preserving semantic cues. We also release a test set based on real human dialogue, capturing authentic turn transitions, overlapping speech, backchannels, pauses, pitch variation, and environmental noise. Experiments show FastTurn achieves higher decision accuracy with lower interruption latency than representative baselines and remains robust under challenging acoustic conditions, demonstrating its effectiveness for practical full-duplex dialogue systems.

Understanding drivers' decision-making is crucial for road safety. Although predicting the ego-vehicle's path is valuable for driver-assistance systems, existing methods mainly focus on external factors like other vehicles' motions, often neglecting the driver's attention and intent. To address this gap, we infer the ego-trajectory by integrating the driver's gaze and the surrounding scene. We introduce RouteFormer, a novel multimodal ego-trajectory prediction network combining GPS data, environmental context, and the driver's field-of-view, comprising first-person video and gaze fixations. We also present the Path Complexity Index (PCI), a new metric for trajectory complexity that enables a more nuanced evaluation of challenging scenarios. To tackle data scarcity and enhance diversity, we introduce GEM, a comprehensive dataset of urban driving scenarios enriched with synchronized driver field-of-view and gaze data. Extensive evaluations on GEM and DR(eye)VE demonstrate that RouteFormer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving notable improvements in prediction accuracy across diverse conditions. Ablation studies reveal that incorporating driver field-of-view data yields significantly better average displacement error, especially in challenging scenarios with high PCI scores, underscoring the importance of modeling driver attention. All data and code are available at https://meakbiyik.github.io/routeformer.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at single-turn tasks such as instruction following and summarization, yet real-world deployments require sustained multi-turn interactions where user goals and conversational context persist and evolve. A recurring challenge in this setting is context drift: the gradual divergence of a model's outputs from goal-consistent behavior across turns. Unlike single-turn errors, drift unfolds temporally and is poorly captured by static evaluation metrics. In this work, we present a study of context drift in multi-turn interactions and propose a simple dynamical framework to interpret its behavior. We formalize drift as the turn-wise KL divergence between the token-level predictive distributions of the test model and a goal-consistent reference model, and propose a recurrence model that interprets its evolution as a bounded stochastic process with restoring forces and controllable interventions. We instantiate this framework in both synthetic long-horizon rewriting tasks and realistic user-agent simulations such as in tau-Bench, measuring drift for several open-weight LLMs that are used as user simulators. Our experiments consistently reveal stable, noise-limited equilibria rather than runaway degradation, and demonstrate that simple reminder interventions reliably reduce divergence in line with theoretical predictions. Together, these results suggest that multi-turn drift can be understood as a controllable equilibrium phenomenon rather than as inevitable decay, providing a foundation for studying and mitigating context drift in extended interactions.

Understanding world dynamics is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Recent methods attempt to achieve this by learning a 3D occupancy world model that forecasts future surrounding scenes based on current observation. However, 3D occupancy labels are still required to produce promising results. Considering the high annotation cost for 3D outdoor scenes, we propose a semi-supervised vision-centric 3D occupancy world model, PreWorld, to leverage the potential of 2D labels through a novel two-stage training paradigm: the self-supervised pre-training stage and the fully-supervised fine-tuning stage. Specifically, during the pre-training stage, we utilize an attribute projection head to generate different attribute fields of a scene (e.g., RGB, density, semantic), thus enabling temporal supervision from 2D labels via volume rendering techniques. Furthermore, we introduce a simple yet effective state-conditioned forecasting module to recursively forecast future occupancy and ego trajectory in a direct manner. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset validate the effectiveness and scalability of our method, and demonstrate that PreWorld achieves competitive performance across 3D occupancy prediction, 4D occupancy forecasting and motion planning tasks.

A central piece in enabling intelligent agentic behavior in foundation models is to make them capable of introspecting upon their behavior, reasoning, and correcting their mistakes as more computation or interaction is available. Even the strongest proprietary large language models (LLMs) do not quite exhibit the ability of continually improving their responses sequentially, even in scenarios where they are explicitly told that they are making a mistake. In this paper, we develop RISE: Recursive IntroSpEction, an approach for fine-tuning LLMs to introduce this capability, despite prior work hypothesizing that this capability may not be possible to attain. Our approach prescribes an iterative fine-tuning procedure, which attempts to teach the model how to alter its response after having executed previously unsuccessful attempts to solve a hard test-time problem, with optionally additional environment feedback. RISE poses fine-tuning for a single-turn prompt as solving a multi-turn Markov decision process (MDP), where the initial state is the prompt. Inspired by principles in online imitation learning and reinforcement learning, we propose strategies for multi-turn data collection and training so as to imbue an LLM with the capability to recursively detect and correct its previous mistakes in subsequent iterations. Our experiments show that RISE enables Llama2, Llama3, and Mistral models to improve themselves with more turns on math reasoning tasks, outperforming several single-turn strategies given an equal amount of inference-time computation. We also find that RISE scales well, often attaining larger benefits with more capable models. Our analysis shows that RISE makes meaningful improvements to responses to arrive at the correct solution for challenging prompts, without disrupting one-turn abilities as a result of expressing more complex distributions.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Human trajectory prediction is a practical task of predicting the future positions of pedestrians on the road, which typically covers all temporal ranges from short-term to long-term within a trajectory. However, existing works attempt to address the entire trajectory prediction with a singular, uniform training paradigm, neglecting the distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics in human trajectories. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel Progressive Pretext Task learning (PPT) framework, which progressively enhances the model's capacity of capturing short-term dynamics and long-term dependencies for the final entire trajectory prediction. Specifically, we elaborately design three stages of training tasks in the PPT framework. In the first stage, the model learns to comprehend the short-term dynamics through a stepwise next-position prediction task. In the second stage, the model is further enhanced to understand long-term dependencies through a destination prediction task. In the final stage, the model aims to address the entire future trajectory task by taking full advantage of the knowledge from previous stages. To alleviate the knowledge forgetting, we further apply a cross-task knowledge distillation. Additionally, we design a Transformer-based trajectory predictor, which is able to achieve highly efficient two-step reasoning by integrating a destination-driven prediction strategy and a group of learnable prompt embeddings. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks have demonstrated that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/PPT.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as the predominant paradigm for training large language model (LLM)-based AI agents. However, existing backbone RL algorithms lack verified convergence guarantees in agentic scenarios, especially in multi-turn settings, which can lead to training instability and failure to converge to optimal policies. In this paper, we systematically analyze how different combinations of policy update mechanisms and advantage estimation methods affect convergence properties in single/multi-turn scenarios. We find that REINFORCE with Group Relative Advantage Estimation (GRAE) can converge to the globally optimal under undiscounted conditions, but the combination of PPO & GRAE breaks PPO's original monotonic improvement property. Furthermore, we demonstrate that mainstream backbone RL algorithms cannot simultaneously achieve both critic-free and convergence guarantees in multi-turn scenarios. To address this, we propose SeeUPO (Sequence-level Sequential Update Policy Optimization), a critic-free approach with convergence guarantees for multi-turn interactions. SeeUPO models multi-turn interaction as sequentially executed multi-agent bandit problems. Through turn-by-turn sequential policy updates in reverse execution order, it ensures monotonic improvement and convergence to global optimal solution via backward induction. Experiments on AppWorld and BFCL v4 demonstrate SeeUPO's substantial improvements over existing backbone algorithms: relative gains of 43.3%-54.6% on Qwen3-14B and 24.1%-41.9% on Qwen2.5-14B (averaged across benchmarks), along with superior training stability.

Accurately perceiving instances and predicting their future motion are key tasks for autonomous vehicles, enabling them to navigate safely in complex urban traffic. While bird's-eye view (BEV) representations are commonplace in perception for autonomous driving, their potential in a motion prediction setting is less explored. Existing approaches for BEV instance prediction from surround cameras rely on a multi-task auto-regressive setup coupled with complex post-processing to predict future instances in a spatio-temporally consistent manner. In this paper, we depart from this paradigm and propose an efficient novel end-to-end framework named POWERBEV, which differs in several design choices aimed at reducing the inherent redundancy in previous methods. First, rather than predicting the future in an auto-regressive fashion, POWERBEV uses a parallel, multi-scale module built from lightweight 2D convolutional networks. Second, we show that segmentation and centripetal backward flow are sufficient for prediction, simplifying previous multi-task objectives by eliminating redundant output modalities. Building on this output representation, we propose a simple, flow warping-based post-processing approach which produces more stable instance associations across time. Through this lightweight yet powerful design, POWERBEV outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on the NuScenes Dataset and poses an alternative paradigm for BEV instance prediction. We made our code publicly available at: https://github.com/EdwardLeeLPZ/PowerBEV.

Seamless human-robot manipulation in close proximity relies on accurate forecasts of human motion. While there has been significant progress in learning forecast models at scale, when applied to manipulation tasks, these models accrue high errors at critical transition points leading to degradation in downstream planning performance. Our key insight is that instead of predicting the most likely human motion, it is sufficient to produce forecasts that capture how future human motion would affect the cost of a robot's plan. We present ManiCast, a novel framework that learns cost-aware human forecasts and feeds them to a model predictive control planner to execute collaborative manipulation tasks. Our framework enables fluid, real-time interactions between a human and a 7-DoF robot arm across a number of real-world tasks such as reactive stirring, object handovers, and collaborative table setting. We evaluate both the motion forecasts and the end-to-end forecaster-planner system against a range of learned and heuristic baselines while additionally contributing new datasets. We release our code and datasets at https://portal-cornell.github.io/manicast/.

Reasoning about human motion is an important prerequisite to safe and socially-aware robotic navigation. As a result, multi-agent behavior prediction has become a core component of modern human-robot interactive systems, such as self-driving cars. While there exist many methods for trajectory forecasting, most do not enforce dynamic constraints and do not account for environmental information (e.g., maps). Towards this end, we present Trajectron++, a modular, graph-structured recurrent model that forecasts the trajectories of a general number of diverse agents while incorporating agent dynamics and heterogeneous data (e.g., semantic maps). Trajectron++ is designed to be tightly integrated with robotic planning and control frameworks; for example, it can produce predictions that are optionally conditioned on ego-agent motion plans. We demonstrate its performance on several challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of state-of-the-art deterministic and generative methods.

On-policy distillation (OPD) has shown strong potential for transferring reasoning ability from frontier or domain-specific models to smaller students. While effective on static single-turn tasks, its behavior in multi-turn agent settings remains underexplored. In this work, we identify a key limitation of vanilla OPD in such settings, which we term Trajectory-Level KL Instability. Specifically, we observe that KL divergence increases together with a drop in success rate, and even after convergence, the KL remains high, leading to unstable training. This instability arises from inter-turn error compounding: as errors accumulate, the student is driven beyond the teacher's effective support, rendering the supervision signal unreliable. To address this, we propose TCOD (Temporal Curriculum On-Policy Distillation), a simple yet effective framework that controls the trajectory depth exposed to the student and progressively expands it from short to long with a curriculum schedule.Experimental results across four student-teacher pairs on three multi-turn agent benchmarks (ALFWorld, WebShop, ScienceWorld) show that TCOD mitigates KL escalation and enhances KL stability throughout training, improving agent performance by up to 18 points over vanilla OPD. Further evaluations show that TCOD can even surpass the teacher's performance and generalize to tasks on which the teacher fails.

Hidden malicious intent in multi-turn dialogue poses a growing threat to deployed large language models (LLMs). Rather than exposing a harmful objective in a single prompt, increasingly capable attackers can distribute their intent across multiple benign-looking turns. Recent studies show that even modern commercial models with advanced guardrails remain vulnerable to such attacks despite advances in safety alignment and external guardrails. In this work, we address this challenge by detecting the earliest turn at which delivering the candidate response would make the accumulated interaction sufficient to enable harmful action. This objective requires precise turn-level intervention that identifies the harm-enabling closure point while avoiding premature refusal of benign exploratory conversations. To further support training and evaluation, we construct the Multi-Turn Intent Dataset (MTID), which contains branching attack rollouts, matched benign hard negatives, and annotations of the earliest harm-enabling turns. We show that MTID helps enable a turn-level monitor TurnGate, which substantially outperforms existing baselines in harmful-intent detection while maintaining low over-refusal rates. TurnGate further generalizes across domains, attacker pipelines, and target models. Our code is available at https://github.com/Graph-COM/TurnGate.

Recent successes in autoregressive (AR) generation models, such as the GPT series in natural language processing, have motivated efforts to replicate this success in visual tasks. Some works attempt to extend this approach to autonomous driving by building video-based world models capable of generating realistic future video sequences and predicting ego states. However, prior works tend to produce unsatisfactory results, as the classic GPT framework is designed to handle 1D contextual information, such as text, and lacks the inherent ability to model the spatial and temporal dynamics essential for video generation. In this paper, we present DrivingWorld, a GPT-style world model for autonomous driving, featuring several spatial-temporal fusion mechanisms. This design enables effective modeling of both spatial and temporal dynamics, facilitating high-fidelity, long-duration video generation. Specifically, we propose a next-state prediction strategy to model temporal coherence between consecutive frames and apply a next-token prediction strategy to capture spatial information within each frame. To further enhance generalization ability, we propose a novel masking strategy and reweighting strategy for token prediction to mitigate long-term drifting issues and enable precise control. Our work demonstrates the ability to produce high-fidelity and consistent video clips of over 40 seconds in duration, which is over 2 times longer than state-of-the-art driving world models. Experiments show that, in contrast to prior works, our method achieves superior visual quality and significantly more accurate controllable future video generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/YvanYin/DrivingWorld.

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

Spoken dialogue systems powered by large language models have demonstrated remarkable abilities in understanding human speech and generating appropriate spoken responses. However, these systems struggle with end-turn detection (ETD) -- the ability to distinguish between user turn completion and hesitation. This limitation often leads to premature or delayed responses, disrupting the flow of spoken conversations. In this paper, we introduce the ETD Dataset, the first public dataset for end-turn detection. The ETD dataset consists of both synthetic speech data generated with text-to-speech models and real-world speech data collected from web sources. We also propose SpeculativeETD, a novel collaborative inference framework that balances efficiency and accuracy to improve real-time ETD in resource-constrained environments. Our approach jointly employs a lightweight GRU-based model, which rapidly detects the non-speaking units in real-time on local devices, and a high-performance Wav2vec-based model running on the server to make a more challenging classification of distinguishing turn ends from mere pauses. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed SpeculativeETD significantly improves ETD accuracy while keeping the required computations low. Datasets and code will be available after the review.

World action models jointly predict future video and action during training, raising an open question about what role the future-prediction branch actually plays. A recent finding shows that this branch can be removed at inference with little to no loss on common manipulation benchmarks, suggesting that future information may act merely as a regularizer on the shared visual backbone. We propose instead that joint training induces an action-conditioned correction that privileged future observations impose on action denoising, and that current-only policies capture this correction only partially. Making the account precise, we formulate privileged foresight as a residual in the action-denoising direction -- the difference between what a model predicts given the true future and what it predicts given only the current frame -- and introduce Privileged Foresight Distillation (PFD), which transfers this residual from a training-time teacher into a small adapter on a current-only student. The teacher and student share the same backbone and differ only in the attention mask over video tokens; future video is never generated at inference. Controlled experiments verify that this gain reflects a genuine future-conditioned correction rather than a side effect of capacity or regularization. Empirically, PFD achieves consistent improvements on LIBERO and RoboTwin manipulation benchmarks while preserving the current-only inference interface at negligible added latency. This view reframes the role of future information in world action models: not as a target to predict, nor as a regularizer to absorb, but as a compressible correction to be distilled.

How can we rely on an end-to-end autonomous vehicle's complex decision-making system during deployment? One common solution is to have a ``fallback layer'' that checks the planned trajectory for rule violations and replaces it with a pre-defined safe action if necessary. Another approach involves adjusting the planner's decisions to minimize a pre-defined ``cost function'' using additional system predictions such as road layouts and detected obstacles. However, these pre-programmed rules or cost functions cannot learn and improve with new training data, often resulting in overly conservative behaviors. In this work, we propose Centaur (Cluster Entropy for Test-time trAining using Uncertainty) which updates a planner's behavior via test-time training, without relying on hand-engineered rules or cost functions. Instead, we measure and minimize the uncertainty in the planner's decisions. For this, we develop a novel uncertainty measure, called Cluster Entropy, which is simple, interpretable, and compatible with state-of-the-art planning algorithms. Using data collected at prior test-time time-steps, we perform an update to the model's parameters using a gradient that minimizes the Cluster Entropy. With only this sole gradient update prior to inference, Centaur exhibits significant improvements, ranking first on the navtest leaderboard with notable gains in safety-critical metrics such as time to collision. To provide detailed insights on a per-scenario basis, we also introduce navsafe, a challenging new benchmark, which highlights previously undiscovered failure modes of driving models.

Motion prediction is crucial for autonomous vehicles to operate safely in complex traffic environments. Extracting effective spatiotemporal relationships among traffic elements is key to accurate forecasting. Inspired by the successful practice of pretrained large language models, this paper presents SEPT, a modeling framework that leverages self-supervised learning to develop powerful spatiotemporal understanding for complex traffic scenes. Specifically, our approach involves three masking-reconstruction modeling tasks on scene inputs including agents' trajectories and road network, pretraining the scene encoder to capture kinematics within trajectory, spatial structure of road network, and interactions among roads and agents. The pretrained encoder is then finetuned on the downstream forecasting task. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SEPT, without elaborate architectural design or manual feature engineering, achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Argoverse 1 and Argoverse 2 motion forecasting benchmarks, outperforming previous methods on all main metrics by a large margin.

Predicting future trajectories for other road agents is an essential task for autonomous vehicles. Established trajectory prediction methods primarily use agent tracks generated by a detection and tracking system and HD map as inputs. In this work, we propose a novel method that also incorporates visual input from surround-view cameras, allowing the model to utilize visual cues such as human gazes and gestures, road conditions, vehicle turn signals, etc, which are typically hidden from the model in prior methods. Furthermore, we use textual descriptions generated by a Vision-Language Model (VLM) and refined by a Large Language Model (LLM) as supervision during training to guide the model on what to learn from the input data. Despite using these extra inputs, our method achieves a latency of 53 ms, making it feasible for real-time processing, which is significantly faster than that of previous single-agent prediction methods with similar performance. Our experiments show that both the visual inputs and the textual descriptions contribute to improvements in trajectory prediction performance, and our qualitative analysis highlights how the model is able to exploit these additional inputs. Lastly, in this work we create and release the nuScenes-Text dataset, which augments the established nuScenes dataset with rich textual annotations for every scene, demonstrating the positive impact of utilizing VLM on trajectory prediction. Our project page is at https://moonseokha.github.io/VisionTrap/

The incorporation of world modeling into manipulation policy learning has pushed the boundary of manipulation performance. However, existing efforts simply model the 2D visual dynamics, which is insufficient for robust manipulation when target tasks involve prominent depth-wise movement. To address this, we present a 3D dynamics-aware manipulation framework that seamlessly integrates 3D world modeling and policy learning. Three self-supervised learning tasks (current depth estimation, future RGB-D prediction, 3D flow prediction) are introduced within our framework, which complement each other and endow the policy model with 3D foresight. Extensive experiments on simulation and the real world show that 3D foresight can greatly boost the performance of manipulation policies without sacrificing inference speed. Code is available at https://github.com/Stardust-hyx/3D-Foresight.

Trajectory prediction plays an important role in various applications, including autonomous driving, robotics, and scene understanding. Existing approaches mainly focus on developing compact neural networks to increase prediction precision on public datasets, typically employing a standardized input duration. However, a notable issue arises when these models are evaluated with varying observation lengths, leading to a significant performance drop, a phenomenon we term the Observation Length Shift. To address this issue, we introduce a general and effective framework, the FlexiLength Network (FLN), to enhance the robustness of existing trajectory prediction techniques against varying observation periods. Specifically, FLN integrates trajectory data with diverse observation lengths, incorporates FlexiLength Calibration (FLC) to acquire temporal invariant representations, and employs FlexiLength Adaptation (FLA) to further refine these representations for more accurate future trajectory predictions. Comprehensive experiments on multiple datasets, ie, ETH/UCY, nuScenes, and Argoverse 1, demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed FLN framework.

Human motion capture from monocular videos has made significant progress in recent years. However, modern approaches often produce temporal artifacts, e.g. in form of jittery motion and struggle to achieve smooth and physically plausible motions. Explicitly integrating physics, in form of internal forces and exterior torques, helps alleviating these artifacts. Current state-of-the-art approaches make use of an automatic PD controller to predict torques and reaction forces in order to re-simulate the input kinematics, i.e. the joint angles of a predefined skeleton. However, due to imperfect physical models, these methods often require simplifying assumptions and extensive preprocessing of the input kinematics to achieve good performance. To this end, we propose a novel method to selectively incorporate the physics models with the kinematics observations in an online setting, inspired by a neural Kalman-filtering approach. We develop a control loop as a meta-PD controller to predict internal joint torques and external reaction forces, followed by a physics-based motion simulation. A recurrent neural network is introduced to realize a Kalman filter that attentively balances the kinematics input and simulated motion, resulting in an optimal-state dynamics prediction. We show that this filtering step is crucial to provide an online supervision that helps balancing the shortcoming of the respective input motions, thus being important for not only capturing accurate global motion trajectories but also producing physically plausible human poses. The proposed approach excels in the physics-based human pose estimation task and demonstrates the physical plausibility of the predictive dynamics, compared to state of the art. The code is available on https://github.com/cuongle1206/OSDCap

The ability to accurately predict the trajectory of surrounding vehicles is a critical hurdle to overcome on the journey to fully autonomous vehicles. To address this challenge, we pioneer a novel behavior-aware trajectory prediction model (BAT) that incorporates insights and findings from traffic psychology, human behavior, and decision-making. Our model consists of behavior-aware, interaction-aware, priority-aware, and position-aware modules that perceive and understand the underlying interactions and account for uncertainty and variability in prediction, enabling higher-level learning and flexibility without rigid categorization of driving behavior. Importantly, this approach eliminates the need for manual labeling in the training process and addresses the challenges of non-continuous behavior labeling and the selection of appropriate time windows. We evaluate BAT's performance across the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), Roundabout Drone (RounD), and Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) datasets, showcasing its superiority over prevailing state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmarks in terms of prediction accuracy and efficiency. Remarkably, even when trained on reduced portions of the training data (25%), our model outperforms most of the baselines, demonstrating its robustness and efficiency in predicting vehicle trajectories, and the potential to reduce the amount of data required to train autonomous vehicles, especially in corner cases. In conclusion, the behavior-aware model represents a significant advancement in the development of autonomous vehicles capable of predicting trajectories with the same level of proficiency as human drivers. The project page is available at https://github.com/Petrichor625/BATraj-Behavior-aware-Model.

Neural networks acquire structured representations at specific moments during training, yet identifying these transitions typically relies on retrospective, label-dependent metrics. We introduce a bifurcation theory of representation dynamics to detect these moments in real time. Analyzing a passive GMM probe attached to the evolving encoder, we show the onset of structure corresponds to a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation driven by the loss Hessian. The system exhibits a theoretically predictable zero-crossing (β_c) that, compared to the network's current state (β), yields a dynamic ratio β(t)/β_c(t): a universal, label-free phase coordinate for representation dynamics, computable entirely from hidden states. We empirically validate four distinct transition regimes predicted by this coordinate across diverse settings: SAEs on language models (Pythia), SSL (CIFAR), and grokking (modular arithmetic). Crucially, under finite dissipation, macroscopic symmetry-breaking can lag the initial zero-crossing by orders of magnitude, which providing a rigorous dynamical account of the delayed escape observed in grokking. Microscopically, the bifurcation creates a shared unstable subspace, forcing collective symmetry breaking. We term this the "feature lottery" in SAE training: a feature's terminal interpretability becomes predictable remarkably early. By only 5% of training, early atom purity robustly predicts final convergence purity, with top-decile early atoms achieving over 12x the baseline purity at convergence. Beyond explaining concept emergence, β/β_c provides a practical early-warning indicator for training health, detecting the onset of usable structure, the crystallization of feature identity, and representational collapse epochs before downstream metrics react.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) for multi-turn Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) - where models iteratively reason, generate code, and verify through execution - remains challenging for existing reinforcement learning (RL) approaches. Current RL methods, exemplified by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), suffer from coarse-grained, trajectory-level rewards that provide insufficient learning signals for complex multi-turn interactions, leading to training stagnation. To address this issue, we propose Group Turn Policy Optimization (GTPO), a novel RL algorithm specifically designed for training LLMs on multi-turn TIR tasks. GTPO introduces three key innovations: (1) turn-level reward assignment that provides fine-grained feedback for individual turns, (2) return-based advantage estimation where normalized discounted returns are calculated as advantages, and (3) self-supervised reward shaping that exploits self-supervision signals from generated code to densify sparse binary outcome-based rewards. Our comprehensive evaluation demonstrates that GTPO outperforms GRPO by 3.0% on average across diverse reasoning benchmarks, establishing its effectiveness for advancing complex mathematical reasoning in the real world.

We introduce GE-Sim 2.0 (Genie Envisioner World Simulator 2.0), a closed-loop video world simulator for robotic manipulation. Building on the action-conditioned video generation framework of Genie Envisioner, GE-Sim 2.0 is re-trained on thousands of hours of real-world robot data spanning teleoperation, contact-rich interaction, and on-robot policy deployment, substantially improving action-following fidelity and trajectory coverage. On top of this foundation, three new modules close the loop from video simulation to policy learning: a state expert that decodes proprioceptive state from video latents to support next-chunk prediction by downstream VLA policies; a world judge that scores generated rollouts against task instructions, yielding machine-verifiable success signals and rewards in place of manual inspection; and an acceleration framework that delivers a 25-frame rollout in 2.3 seconds on a single H100, with up to 4* frame skipping at inference for long-horizon evaluation. GE-Sim 2.0 tops the public WorldArena leaderboard at only 2B parameters, outperforming both dedicated robotic world models and closed-source general video generators, and policies trained against its rollouts and rewards translate into measurable real-world gains, establishing GE-Sim 2.0 as a practical platform for scalable evaluation and closed-loop learning of manipulation policies.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Large language models have demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities in complex tasks through tool integration, which is typically framed as a Markov Decision Process and optimized with trajectory-level RL algorithms such as GRPO. However, a common class of reasoning tasks, iterative optimization, presents distinct challenges: the agent interacts with the same underlying environment state across turns, and the value of a trajectory is determined by the best turn-level reward rather than cumulative returns. Existing GRPO-based methods cannot perform fine-grained, turn-level optimization in such settings, while black-box optimization methods discard prior knowledge and reasoning capabilities. To address this gap, we propose Turn-Level GRPO (TL-GRPO), a lightweight RL algorithm that performs turn-level group sampling for fine-grained optimization. We evaluate TL-GRPO on analog circuit sizing (ACS), a challenging scientific optimization task requiring multiple simulations and domain expertise. Results show that TL-GRPO outperforms standard GRPO and Bayesian optimization methods across various specifications. Furthermore, our 30B model trained with TL-GRPO achieves state-of-the-art performance on ACS tasks under same simulation budget, demonstrating both strong generalization and practical utility.

Standard LLM benchmarks evaluate the assistant turn: the model generates a response to an input, a verifier scores correctness, and the analysis ends. This paradigm leaves unmeasured whether the LLM encodes any awareness of what follows the assistant response. We propose user-turn generation as a probe of this gap: given a conversation context of user query and assistant response, we let a model generate under the user role. If the model's weights encode interaction awareness, the generated user turn will be a grounded follow-up that reacts to the preceding context. Through experiments across 11 open-weight LLMs (Qwen3.5, gpt-oss, GLM) and 5 datasets (math reasoning, instruction following, conversation), we show that interaction awareness is decoupled from task accuracy. In particular, within the Qwen3.5 family, GSM8K accuracy scales from 41% (0.8B) to 96.8% (397B-A17B), yet genuine follow-up rates under deterministic generation remain near zero. In contrast, higher temperature sampling reveals interaction awareness is latent with follow up rates reaching 22%. Controlled perturbations validate that the proposed probe measures a real property of the model, and collaboration-oriented post-training on Qwen3.5-2B demonstrates an increase in follow-up rates. Our results show that user-turn generation captures a dimension of LLM behavior, interaction awareness, that is unexplored and invisible with current assistant-only benchmarks.

A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on different occasions, and different individuals produce divergent outcomes that no observable covariate fully predicts. We argue that this variability belongs in the dynamic latent state of the person, and that human outcomes are controllable in a precise and operational sense through interventions that target the state and its weighting at the moment a decision is being formed. We define a state as the time-indexed weighting vector over the dimensions that govern how an individual's biology, physiology, and neuropsychology process the next event into a decision and an outcome. The relationship between state, decision, and outcome is causal rather than correlational. The weighting vector is dynamic at sub-daily timescales. The conscious channel through which outcomes are reportable is a narrow attentional bottleneck whose contents are themselves state-dependent. Taken together, these claims imply that the outcome of a given event is controllable, conditionally, on the state-trajectory at the time of intervention. We motivate the framework with six strands of established evidence (causal inference, predictive processing, allostasis, attentional bottleneck, chronobiology, computational psychiatry) and a 24-month observational base from a deployed behavioural platform spanning more than 200,000 consented users across four occupational personas (research period 2023 to 2026). We derive seven testable predictions, list six operational requirements for state-aware systems, and discuss implications for digital health, education, AI personalisation, and personal agency.

This paper investigates approaches to enhance the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Model (LLM) agents using Reinforcement Learning (RL). Specifically, we focus on multi-turn tool-use scenarios, which can be naturally modeled as Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). While existing approaches often train multi-turn LLM agents with trajectory-level advantage estimation in bandit settings, they struggle with turn-level credit assignment across multiple decision steps, limiting their performance on multi-turn reasoning tasks. To address this, we introduce a fine-grained turn-level advantage estimation strategy to enable more precise credit assignment in multi-turn agent interactions. The strategy is general and can be incorporated into various RL algorithms such as Group Relative Preference Optimization (GRPO). Our experimental evaluation on multi-turn reasoning and search-based tool-use tasks with GRPO implementations highlights the effectiveness of the MDP framework and the turn-level credit assignment in advancing the multi-turn reasoning capabilities of LLM agents in complex decision-making settings. Our method achieves 100% success in tool execution and 50% accuracy in exact answer matching, significantly outperforming baselines, which fail to invoke tools and achieve only 20-30% exact match accuracy.

Leveraging future observation modeling to facilitate action generation presents a promising avenue for enhancing the capabilities of Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models. However, existing approaches struggle to strike a balance between maintaining efficient, predictable future representations and preserving sufficient fine-grained information to guide precise action generation. To address this limitation, we propose WoG (World Guidance), a framework that maps future observations into compact conditions by injecting them into the action inference pipeline. The VLA is then trained to simultaneously predict these compressed conditions alongside future actions, thereby achieving effective world modeling within the condition space for action inference. We demonstrate that modeling and predicting this condition space not only facilitates fine-grained action generation but also exhibits superior generalization capabilities. Moreover, it learns effectively from substantial human manipulation videos. Extensive experiments across both simulation and real-world environments validate that our method significantly outperforms existing methods based on future prediction. Project page is available at: https://selen-suyue.github.io/WoGNet/

Large Language Models (LLMs) can significantly improve their reasoning capabilities by interacting with external tools, a paradigm known as Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR). However, extending TIR to multi-turn scenarios using Reinforcement Learning (RL) is often hindered by training instability and performance collapse. We identify that such instability is primarily caused by a distributional drift from external tool feedback, leading to the generation of low-probability tokens. This issue compounds over successive turns, causing catastrophic gradient norm explosions that derail the training process. To address this challenge, we introduce SimpleTIR , a plug-and-play algorithm that stabilizes multi-turn TIR training. Its core strategy is to identify and filter out trajectories containing void turns, i.e., turns that yield neither a code block nor a final answer. By removing these problematic trajectories from the policy update, SimpleTIR effectively blocks the harmful, high-magnitude gradients, thus stabilizing the learning dynamics. Extensive experiments show that SimpleTIR achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging math reasoning benchmarks, notably elevating the AIME24 score from a text-only baseline of 22.1 to 50.5 when starting from the Qwen2.5-7B base model. Furthermore, by avoiding the constraints of supervised fine-tuning, SimpleTIR encourages the model to discover diverse and sophisticated reasoning patterns, such as self-correction and cross-validation.

Real-world user requests to LLM agents are often underspecified. Agents must interact to acquire missing information and make correct downstream decisions. However, current multi-turn GRPO-based methods often rely on trajectory-level reward computation, which leads to credit assignment problems and insufficient advantage signals within rollout groups. A feasible approach is to identify valuable interaction turns at a fine granularity to drive more targeted learning. To address this, we introduce InfoPO (Information-Driven Policy Optimization), which frames multi-turn interaction as a process of active uncertainty reduction and computes an information-gain reward that credits turns whose feedback measurably changes the agent's subsequent action distribution compared to a masked-feedback counterfactual. It then combines this signal with task outcomes via an adaptive variance-gated fusion to identify information importance while maintaining task-oriented goal direction. Across diverse tasks, including intent clarification, collaborative coding, and tool-augmented decision making, InfoPO consistently outperforms prompting and multi-turn RL baselines. It also demonstrates robustness under user simulator shifts and generalizes effectively to environment-interactive tasks. Overall, InfoPO provides a principled and scalable mechanism for optimizing complex agent-user collaboration. Code is available at https://github.com/kfq20/InfoPO.

Vehicle-to-everything technologies (V2X) have become an ideal paradigm to extend the perception range and see through the occlusion. Exiting efforts focus on single-frame cooperative perception, however, how to capture the temporal cue between frames with V2X to facilitate the prediction task even the planning task is still underexplored. In this paper, we introduce the Co-MTP, a general cooperative trajectory prediction framework with multi-temporal fusion for autonomous driving, which leverages the V2X system to fully capture the interaction among agents in both history and future domains to benefit the planning. In the history domain, V2X can complement the incomplete history trajectory in single-vehicle perception, and we design a heterogeneous graph transformer to learn the fusion of the history feature from multiple agents and capture the history interaction. Moreover, the goal of prediction is to support future planning. Thus, in the future domain, V2X can provide the prediction results of surrounding objects, and we further extend the graph transformer to capture the future interaction among the ego planning and the other vehicles' intentions and obtain the final future scenario state under a certain planning action. We evaluate the Co-MTP framework on the real-world dataset V2X-Seq, and the results show that Co-MTP achieves state-of-the-art performance and that both history and future fusion can greatly benefit prediction.

Contact-rich manipulation failures are often detected only after the robot has committed to contact. This is especially limiting in wrist-camera setups: close gripper--object views help observe contact, but a poor approach may already push, miss, slip, or disturb the object before conventional detectors react. We introduce ContactGuard, a pre-contact execution monitor for chunked visuomotor policies. Given the policy's planned action chunk, ContactGuard predicts its short-horizon consequence in latent visual space and aborts if the predicted future latent indicates likely failure. Its latent world model is trained from unlabelled robot trajectories to predict compact multi-view visual embeddings under planned actions, avoiding pixel-level video prediction. A lightweight failure probe is then trained from a small labelled set of pre-contact clips. At deployment, ContactGuard anchors prediction before an imminent contact event, rolls the model forward under the policy's own actions, and verifies the predicted post-contact latent. Across real-world contact-rich manipulation tasks, ContactGuard predicts failure more accurately than direct and corrupted-action ablations, and transfers to live robot as a pre-contact abort signal without modifying the underlying policy.

Efficient and accurate motion prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and informed decision-making in autonomous driving, particularly under dynamic real-world conditions that necessitate multi-modal forecasts. We introduce TrajFlow, a novel flow matching-based motion prediction framework that addresses the scalability and efficiency challenges of existing generative trajectory prediction methods. Unlike conventional generative approaches that employ i.i.d. sampling and require multiple inference passes to capture diverse outcomes, TrajFlow predicts multiple plausible future trajectories in a single pass, significantly reducing computational overhead while maintaining coherence across predictions. Moreover, we propose a ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce distribution to improve uncertainty estimation of predicted trajectories. Additionally, we design a self-conditioning training technique that reuses the model's own predictions to construct noisy inputs during a second forward pass, thereby improving generalization and accelerating inference. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that TrajFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance across various key metrics, underscoring its effectiveness for safety-critical autonomous driving applications. The code and other details are available on the project website https://traj-flow.github.io/.

We present a novel framework for motion forecasting with Dual Consistency Constraints and Multi-Pseudo-Target supervision. The motion forecasting task predicts future trajectories of vehicles by incorporating spatial and temporal information from the past. A key design of DCMS is the proposed Dual Consistency Constraints that regularize the predicted trajectories under spatial and temporal perturbation during the training stage. In addition, we design a novel self-ensembling scheme to obtain accurate pseudo targets to model the multi-modality in motion forecasting through supervision with multiple targets explicitly, namely Multi-Pseudo-Target supervision. Our experimental results on the Argoverse motion forecasting benchmark show that DCMS significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods, achieving 1st place on the leaderboard. We also demonstrate that our proposed strategies can be incorporated into other motion forecasting approaches as general training schemes.

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

We present a novel data-driven simulation environment for modeling traffic in metropolitan street intersections. Using real-world tracking data collected over an extended period of time, we train trajectory forecasting models to learn agent interactions and environmental constraints that are difficult to capture conventionally. Trajectories of new agents are first coarsely generated by sampling from the spatial and temporal generative distributions, then refined using state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting models. The simulation can run either autonomously, or under explicit human control conditioned on the generative distributions. We present the experiments for a variety of model configurations. Under an iterative prediction scheme, the way-point-supervised TrajNet++ model obtained 0.36 Final Displacement Error (FDE) in 20 FPS on an NVIDIA A100 GPU.

Predicting the future motion of dynamic agents is of paramount importance to ensuring safety and assessing risks in motion planning for autonomous robots. In this study, we propose a two-stage motion prediction method, called R-Pred, designed to effectively utilize both scene and interaction context using a cascade of the initial trajectory proposal and trajectory refinement networks. The initial trajectory proposal network produces M trajectory proposals corresponding to the M modes of the future trajectory distribution. The trajectory refinement network enhances each of the M proposals using 1) tube-query scene attention (TQSA) and 2) proposal-level interaction attention (PIA) mechanisms. TQSA uses tube-queries to aggregate local scene context features pooled from proximity around trajectory proposals of interest. PIA further enhances the trajectory proposals by modeling inter-agent interactions using a group of trajectory proposals selected by their distances from neighboring agents. Our experiments conducted on Argoverse and nuScenes datasets demonstrate that the proposed refinement network provides significant performance improvements compared to the single-stage baseline and that R-Pred achieves state-of-the-art performance in some categories of the benchmarks.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers, mitigating their quadratic computational cost. However, the application of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods to SSMs remains largely unexplored. In particular, prompt-based methods like Prompt Tuning and Prefix-Tuning, which are widely used in Transformers, do not perform well on SSMs. To address this, we propose state-based methods as a superior alternative to prompt-based methods. This new family of methods naturally stems from the architectural characteristics of SSMs. State-based methods adjust state-related features directly instead of depending on external prompts. Furthermore, we introduce a novel state-based PEFT method: State-offset Tuning. At every timestep, our method directly affects the state at the current step, leading to more effective adaptation. Through extensive experiments across diverse datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/furiosa-ai/ssm-state-tuning.

World models predict state transitions in response to actions and are increasingly developed across diverse modalities. However, standard training objectives such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) often misalign with task-specific goals of world models, i.e., transition prediction metrics like accuracy or perceptual quality. In this paper, we present RLVR-World, a unified framework that leverages reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) to directly optimize world models for such metrics. Despite formulating world modeling as autoregressive prediction of tokenized sequences, RLVR-World evaluates metrics of decoded predictions as verifiable rewards. We demonstrate substantial performance gains on both language- and video-based world models across domains, including text games, web navigation, and robot manipulation. Our work indicates that, beyond recent advances in reasoning language models, RLVR offers a promising post-training paradigm for enhancing the utility of generative models more broadly.

An ideal traffic simulator replicates the realistic long-term point-to-point trip that a self-driving system experiences during deployment. Prior models and benchmarks focus on closed-loop motion simulation for initial agents in a scene. This is problematic for long-term simulation. Agents enter and exit the scene as the ego vehicle enters new regions. We propose InfGen, a unified next-token prediction model that performs interleaved closed-loop motion simulation and scene generation. InfGen automatically switches between closed-loop motion simulation and scene generation mode. It enables stable long-term rollout simulation. InfGen performs at the state-of-the-art in short-term (9s) traffic simulation, and significantly outperforms all other methods in long-term (30s) simulation. The code and model of InfGen will be released at https://orangesodahub.github.io/InfGen

Accumulating substantial volumes of real-world driving data proves pivotal in the realm of trajectory forecasting for autonomous driving. Given the heavy reliance of current trajectory forecasting models on data-driven methodologies, we aim to tackle the challenge of learning general trajectory forecasting representations under limited data availability. We propose a pipeline-level solution to mitigate the issue of data scarcity in trajectory forecasting. The solution is composed of two parts: firstly, we adopt HD map augmentation and trajectory synthesis for generating driving data, and then we learn representations by pre-training on them. Specifically, we apply vector transformations to reshape the maps, and then employ a rule-based model to generate trajectories on both original and augmented scenes; thus enlarging the driving data without collecting additional real ones. To foster the learning of general representations within this augmented dataset, we comprehensively explore the different pre-training strategies, including extending the concept of a Masked AutoEncoder (MAE) for trajectory forecasting. Without bells and whistles, our proposed pipeline-level solution is general, simple, yet effective: we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our data expansion and pre-training strategies, which outperform the baseline prediction model by large margins, e.g. 5.04%, 3.84% and 8.30% in terms of MR_6, minADE_6 and minFDE_6. The pre-training dataset and the codes for pre-training and fine-tuning are released at https://github.com/yhli123/Pretraining_on_Synthetic_Driving_Data_for_Trajectory_Prediction.

In this work, we introduce (a) the new problem of anticipating object state changes in images and videos during procedural activities, (b) new curated annotation data for object state change classification based on the Ego4D dataset, and (c) the first method for addressing this challenging problem. Solutions to this new task have important implications in vision-based scene understanding, automated monitoring systems, and action planning. The proposed novel framework predicts object state changes that will occur in the near future due to yet unseen human actions by integrating learned visual features that represent recent visual information with natural language (NLP) features that represent past object state changes and actions. Leveraging the extensive and challenging Ego4D dataset which provides a large-scale collection of first-person perspective videos across numerous interaction scenarios, we introduce an extension noted Ego4D-OSCA that provides new curated annotation data for the object state change anticipation task (OSCA). An extensive experimental evaluation is presented demonstrating the proposed method's efficacy in predicting object state changes in dynamic scenarios. The performance of the proposed approach also underscores the potential of integrating video and linguistic cues to enhance the predictive performance of video understanding systems and lays the groundwork for future research on the new task of object state change anticipation. The source code and the new annotation data (Ego4D-OSCA) will be made publicly available.

End-to-end vision-based imitation learning has demonstrated promising results in autonomous driving by learning control commands directly from expert demonstrations. However, traditional approaches rely on either regressionbased models, which provide precise control but lack confidence estimation, or classification-based models, which offer confidence scores but suffer from reduced precision due to discretization. This limitation makes it challenging to quantify the reliability of predicted actions and apply corrections when necessary. In this work, we introduce a dual-head neural network architecture that integrates both regression and classification heads to improve decision reliability in imitation learning. The regression head predicts continuous driving actions, while the classification head estimates confidence, enabling a correction mechanism that adjusts actions in low-confidence scenarios, enhancing driving stability. We evaluate our approach in a closed-loop setting within the CARLA simulator, demonstrating its ability to detect uncertain actions, estimate confidence, and apply real-time corrections. Experimental results show that our method reduces lane deviation and improves trajectory accuracy by up to 50%, outperforming conventional regression-only models. These findings highlight the potential of classification-guided confidence estimation in enhancing the robustness of vision-based imitation learning for autonomous driving. The source code is available at https://github.com/ElaheDlv/Confidence_Aware_IL.

Autonomous driving requires reasoning about how the environment evolves and planning actions accordingly. Existing world-model-based approaches typically predict future scenes first and plan afterwards, resulting in open-loop imagination that may drift from the actual decision process. In this paper, we present Uni-World VLA, a unified vision-language-action (VLA) model that tightly interleaves future frame prediction and trajectory planning. Instead of generating a full world rollout before planning, our model alternates between predicting future frames and ego actions step by step, allowing planning decisions to be continuously conditioned on the imagined future observations. This interleaved generation forms a closed-loop interaction between world modeling and control, enabling more adaptive decision-making in dynamic traffic scenarios. In addition, we incorporate monocular depth information into frames to provide stronger geometric cues for world modeling, improving long-horizon scene prediction. Experiments on the NAVSIM benchmark show that our approach achieves competitive closed-loop planning performance while producing high-fidelity future frame predictions. These results demonstrate that tightly coupling world prediction and planning is a promising direction for scalable VLA driving systems.

Reinforcement learning for agentic large language models (LLMs) typically relies on a sparse, trajectory-level outcome reward, making it difficult to evaluate the contribution of individual tool-calls within multi-turn interactions. Existing approaches to such process credit assignment either depend on separate external process reward models that introduce additional consumption, or tree-based structural rollout that merely redistributes the outcome signal while constraining trajectory diversity. A promising alternative leverages the per-turn change in the policy's predicted probability of the ground-truth, termed Information Gain (IG), as an intrinsic process signal without an external evaluator. However, prior work on leveraging IG signals within the RL training loop faces three systematic challenges: normalizing across turns that face heterogeneous positional contexts can distort the relative standing of individual turns, accumulating a variable number of terms causes advantage magnitudes to drift with trajectory depth, and a fixed clipping range governs policy updates identically for turns with vastly different IG signals. In this paper, we propose A^2TGPO (Agentic Turn-Group Policy Optimization with Adaptive Turn-level Clipping), which retains IG as the intrinsic signal but re-designs how it is normalized, accumulated, and consumed: (i) turn-group normalization: normalizes IG within each (prompt, turn-index) group so that each turn is compared only against peers at the same interaction depth; (ii) variance-rescaled discounted accumulation: divides cumulative normalized IG by square root of accumulated terms to keep advantage magnitudes comparable across turn positions; and (iii) adaptive turn-level clipping: modulates each turn's clipping range based on its normalized IG, widening the update region for informative turns and narrowing it for uninformative ones.

Deployed large reasoning models (LRMs) often behave unexpectedly. Test-time steering controls LRM outputs by intervening on their hidden representations, but it can degrade output quality. We argue that prior steering work implicitly relies on internal features that detect behavior in already generated text. We show that these detection features are poor predictors of future behavioral outcomes, and thus not the natural intervention target. Instead, we train activation probes to predict future behavior likelihoods from intermediate reasoning steps. These probes predict the most likely behavior with 64%-91% accuracy, revealing a separate type of internal prediction features. Building on these prediction features, we introduce a text-level steering method, Future Probe Controlled Generation. FPCG samples multiple candidate sentences and chooses the best one according to a probe predicting the future behavior likelihood. This enables steering with almost no output quality degradation. FPCG also enables steering in several evaluations where activation steering fails. These results show that distinguishing detection and prediction features enables a more nuanced approach to controlling LRM behaviors.

In many environments only a tiny subset of all states yield high reward. In these cases, few of the interactions with the environment provide a relevant learning signal. Hence, we may want to preferentially train on those high-reward states and the probable trajectories leading to them. To this end, we advocate for the use of a backtracking model that predicts the preceding states that terminate at a given high-reward state. We can train a model which, starting from a high value state (or one that is estimated to have high value), predicts and sample for which the (state, action)-tuples may have led to that high value state. These traces of (state, action) pairs, which we refer to as Recall Traces, sampled from this backtracking model starting from a high value state, are informative as they terminate in good states, and hence we can use these traces to improve a policy. We provide a variational interpretation for this idea and a practical algorithm in which the backtracking model samples from an approximate posterior distribution over trajectories which lead to large rewards. Our method improves the sample efficiency of both on- and off-policy RL algorithms across several environments and tasks.

Training long-horizon LLM agents with reinforcement learning is challenging because sparse outcome rewards reveal whether a task succeeds, but not which intermediate actions caused the outcome or how they should be corrected. Recent methods alleviate this issue by generating rewards or textual hints from turn-level action-output signals, or by using feedback-conditioned self-distillation. However, generating feedback at every turn is inefficient when many intermediate turns are already successful or neutral, and applying feedback at a fixed or misaligned turn often fails to supervise the actions that contributed to the failure. To bridge this gap, we propose HINT-SD, a targeted self-distillation framework that uses full-trajectory hindsight to select failure-relevant actions and applies feedback-conditioned distillation only on targeted action spans. Experiments on BFCL v3 and AppWorld show that our method improves over the dense per-turn feedback baseline by up to 18.80 percent while achieving 2.26times lower time per training step, suggesting that selecting where to distill is a key factor for both effective and efficient long-horizon agent training.

As chain of thought (CoT) has become central to scaling reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), it has also emerged as a promising tool for interpretability, suggesting the opportunity to understand model decisions through verbalized reasoning. However, the utility of CoT toward interpretability depends upon its faithfulness---whether the model's stated reasoning reflects the underlying decision process. We provide mechanistic evidence that instruction-tuned models often determine their answer before generating CoT. Training linear probes on residual stream activations at the last token before CoT, we can predict the model's final answer with >0.9 AUC on most tasks. We find that these directions are not only predictive, but also causal: steering activations along the probe direction often flips model answers, with flip rates substantially exceeding norm-matched orthogonal baselines across most model-dataset pairs. When steering induces incorrect answers, we observe two distinct failure modes: confabulation (fabricating false premises) and non-entailment (stating correct premises but drawing unsupported conclusions). While post-hoc reasoning may be instrumentally useful when the model has a correct pre-CoT belief, these failure modes suggest it can result in undesirable behaviors when reasoning from a false belief.