Daily Papers

Streaming text-to-speech is essential for low-latency spoken dialogue systems, yet many systems wait for sentence-level text and are therefore only pseudo-streaming. True token-level synthesis must generate speech from uncertain prefixes while maintaining perceptual continuity over an unbounded stream with bounded context. We present X2Streaming-TTS, a causal TTS framework that consumes asynchronously arriving text tokens and emits speech without accessing future input. To handle uncertain prefixes, we introduce causal commitment, which keeps ambiguous expressions provisional through uncertainty-aware buffering and performs capacity-adaptive, punctuation-aware segmentation. To preserve acoustic continuity, we further introduce causal speech-state inheritance, which carries the complete Code2Wav state and selected historical Talker states across segment boundaries. Together with an attention prior constraint, it blocks access to future positions while retaining bounded acoustic context. Experiments show that X2Streaming-TTS outperforms existing pseudo-streaming models on most subjective and objective metrics. Further analysis shows that causal commitment stabilizes online segmentation and reduces failures caused by insufficient context, while speech-state inheritance improves boundary continuity without degrading naturalness or speaker identity. X2Streaming-TTS thus achieves strict token-level synthesis with quality comparable to the evaluated offline baselines, a median time to first audio token (TTFT) of 15.8 ms for a single request, and a median TTFT of 260.8 ms at 128 concurrent requests. Our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/X-Square-Robot/X2Streaming-TTS .

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced energy consumption. However, these SLMs often generate inaccurate responses when handling complex queries. One promising solution is uncertainty-based SLM routing, offloading high-stakes queries to stronger LLMs when resulting in low-confidence responses on SLM. This follows the principle of "If you lack confidence, seek stronger support" to enhance reliability. Relying on more powerful LLMs is yet effective but increases invocation costs. Therefore, striking a routing balance between efficiency and efficacy remains a critical challenge. Additionally, efficiently generalizing the routing strategy to new datasets remains under-explored. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive investigation into benchmarking and generalization of uncertainty-driven routing strategies from SLMs to LLMs over 1500+ settings. Our findings highlight: First, uncertainty-correctness alignment in different uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods significantly impacts routing performance. Second, uncertainty distributions depend more on both the specific SLM and the chosen UQ method, rather than downstream data. Building on the insight, we propose a calibration data construction instruction pipeline and open-source a constructed hold-out set to enhance routing generalization on new downstream scenarios. The experimental results indicate calibration data effectively bootstraps routing performance without any new data.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have gained popularity in achieving state-of-the-art performance in a wide range of tasks in computer vision and natural language processing. They effectively expand the model capacity while incurring a minimal increase in computation cost during training. However, deploying such models for inference is difficult due to their large size and complex communication pattern. In this work, we provide a characterization of two MoE workloads, namely Language Modeling (LM) and Machine Translation (MT) and identify their sources of inefficiencies at deployment. We propose three optimization techniques to mitigate sources of inefficiencies, namely (1) Dynamic gating, (2) Expert Buffering, and (3) Expert load balancing. We show that dynamic gating improves maximum throughput by 6.21-11.23times for LM, 5.75-10.98times for MT Encoder and 2.58-5.71times for MT Decoder. It also reduces memory usage by up to 1.36times for LM and up to 1.1times for MT. We further propose Expert Buffering, a new caching mechanism that only keeps hot, active experts in GPU memory while buffering the rest in CPU memory. This reduces static memory allocation by up to 1.47times. We finally propose a load balancing methodology that provides additional scalability to the workload.

Code generation using large language models (LLMs) is highly sensitive to the choice of tokens during decoding, especially at points of uncertainty that critically affect the generated program's logic. Conventional decoding methods such as greedy search and beam search apply uniform treatment to all tokens, neglecting the unique uncertainty characteristics inherent in code generation, which can result in suboptimal outputs. In this work, we conduct an empirical analysis demonstrating that a significant portion of generation errors arises from incorrect token ranking at high-uncertainty steps, where the ground truth token exists in the candidate set but fails to be ranked first. Inspired by this insight, we introduce AdaDec, an adaptive decoding framework guided by token-level uncertainty quantified via Shannon entropy. AdaDec dynamically learns uncertainty thresholds tailored to each model and employs a pause-then-rerank mechanism with lookahead when the uncertainty surpasses these thresholds. Evaluation on the HumanEval and MBPP benchmarks reveals that AdaDec achieves up to a 15.5% improvement in Pass@1 accuracy compared to greedy decoding, matches or outperforms traditional beam search, and reduces both computational overhead and latency through targeted, selective pausing. Our findings suggest that uncertainty-aware adaptive decoding holds considerable potential for enhancing both the reliability and efficiency of code generation with LLMs.

While LLMs have seen substantial improvement in reasoning capabilities, they also sometimes overthink, generating unnecessary reasoning steps, particularly under uncertainty, given ill-posed or ambiguous queries. We introduce statistically principled early stopping methods that monitor uncertainty signals during generation to mitigate this issue. Our first approach is parametric: it models inter-arrival times of uncertainty keywords as a renewal process and applies sequential testing for stopping. Our second approach is nonparametric and provides finite-sample guarantees on the probability of halting too early on well-posed queries. We conduct empirical evaluations on reasoning tasks across several domains and models. Our results indicate that uncertainty-aware early stopping can improve both efficiency and reliability in LLM reasoning, and we observe especially significant gains for math reasoning.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) for long-context inference remains challenging due to their substantial memory and computational demands. While techniques such as Key-Value (KV) cache compression are designed to reduce memory usage, they often neglect the structured sparsity inherent in the relationship between hidden states and their corresponding KV cache. In this work, we explore the role of uncertainty as a potential indicator of sparsity within LLMs. We propose UNComp, an uncertainty-aware framework that leverages truncated matrix entropy to identify areas of low information content, thereby revealing sparsity patterns that can be used for adaptive compression. Unlike traditional methods that apply uniform compression, UNComp dynamically adjusts its approach to compression, guided by uncertainty measures that reflect the importance of various model components. Our analysis shows that sparsity patterns, when derived from uncertainty estimates, can be exploited to reveal special long-range dependencies, such as retrieval heads and retrieval layers. This perspective not only enhances our understanding of how compression can be optimized but also provides new insights into the inherent sparsity of LLMs during long-context inference. By focusing on uncertainty to analyze the sparsity pattern in detail, UNComp reduces the KV cache size to 4.74% of the original, achieves a 6% prefill speedup, and improves throughput by 6.4x - not only delivering strong lossless compression performance, but also validating the effectiveness of the underlying theoretical tool. We release the code at https://github.com/menik1126/UNComp.

End-to-end (E2E) driving has become a cornerstone of both industry deployment and academic research, offering a single learnable pipeline that maps multi-sensor inputs to actions while avoiding hand-engineered modules. However, the reliability of such pipelines strongly depends on how well they handle uncertainty: sensors are noisy, semantics can be ambiguous, and interaction with other road users is inherently stochastic. Uncertainty also appears in multiple forms: classification vs. localization, and, crucially, in both static map elements and dynamic agents. Existing E2E approaches model only static-map uncertainty, leaving planning vulnerable to overconfident and unreliable inputs. We present UniUncer, the first lightweight, unified uncertainty framework that jointly estimates and uses uncertainty for both static and dynamic scene elements inside an E2E planner. Concretely: (1) we convert deterministic heads to probabilistic Laplace regressors that output per-vertex location and scale for vectorized static and dynamic entities; (2) we introduce an uncertainty-fusion module that encodes these parameters and injects them into object/map queries to form uncertainty-aware queries; and (3) we design an uncertainty-aware gate that adaptively modulates reliance on historical inputs (ego status or temporal perception queries) based on current uncertainty levels. The design adds minimal overhead and drops throughput by only sim0.5 FPS while remaining plug-and-play for common E2E backbones. On nuScenes (open-loop), UniUncer reduces average L2 trajectory error by 7\%. On NavsimV2 (pseudo closed-loop), it improves overall EPDMS by 10.8\% and notable stage two gains in challenging, interaction-heavy scenes. Ablations confirm that dynamic-agent uncertainty and the uncertainty-aware gate are both necessary.

In supervised learning, understanding an input's proximity to the training data can help a model decide whether it has sufficient evidence for reaching a reliable prediction. While powerful probabilistic models such as Gaussian Processes naturally have this property, deep neural networks often lack it. In this paper, we introduce Distance Aware Bottleneck (DAB), i.e., a new method for enriching deep neural networks with this property. Building on prior information bottleneck approaches, our method learns a codebook that stores a compressed representation of all inputs seen during training. The distance of a new example from this codebook can serve as an uncertainty estimate for the example. The resulting model is simple to train and provides deterministic uncertainty estimates by a single forward pass. Finally, our method achieves better out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and misclassification prediction than prior methods, including expensive ensemble methods, deep kernel Gaussian Processes, and approaches based on the standard information bottleneck.

Long-context inference remains challenging for large language models due to attention dilution and out-of-distribution degradation. Context selection mitigates this limitation by attending to a subset of key-value cache entries, yet most methods allocate a fixed context budget throughout decoding despite highly non-uniform token-level contextual demands. To address this issue, we propose Uncertainty-Triggered Adaptive Context Allocation (UT-ACA), an inference-time framework that dynamically adjusts the context window based on token-wise uncertainty. UT-ACA learns an uncertainty detector that combines semantic embeddings with logit-based confidence while accounting for uncertainty accumulation across decoding steps. When insufficient evidence is indicated, UT-ACA selectively rolls back, expands the context window, and regenerates the token with additional support. Experiments show that UT-ACA substantially reduces average context usage while preserving generation quality in long-context settings.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) in edge-cloud environments requires an efficient routing strategy to balance cost and response quality. Traditional approaches prioritize either human-preference data or accuracy metrics from benchmark datasets as routing criteria, but these methods suffer from rigidity and subjectivity. Moreover, existing routing frameworks primarily focus on accuracy and cost, neglecting response quality from a human preference perspective. In this work, we propose the Confidence-Driven LLM Router, a novel framework that leverages uncertainty estimation to optimize routing decisions. To comprehensively assess routing performance, we evaluate both system cost efficiency and response quality. In particular, we introduce the novel use of LLM-as-a-Judge to simulate human rating preferences, providing the first systematic assessment of response quality across different routing strategies. Extensive experiments on MT-Bench, GSM8K, and MMLU demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art routing methods, achieving superior response quality while maintaining cost efficiency.

Generative video models demonstrate impressive text-to-video capabilities, spurring widespread adoption in many real-world applications. However, like large language models (LLMs), video generation models tend to hallucinate, producing plausible videos even when they are factually wrong. Although uncertainty quantification (UQ) of LLMs has been extensively studied in prior work, no UQ method for video models exists, raising critical safety concerns. To our knowledge, this paper represents the first work towards quantifying the uncertainty of video models. We present a framework for uncertainty quantification of generative video models, consisting of: (i) a metric for evaluating the calibration of video models based on robust rank correlation estimation with no stringent modeling assumptions; (ii) a black-box UQ method for video models (termed S-QUBED), which leverages latent modeling to rigorously decompose predictive uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic components; and (iii) a UQ dataset to facilitate benchmarking calibration in video models. By conditioning the generation task in the latent space, we disentangle uncertainty arising due to vague task specifications from that arising from lack of knowledge. Through extensive experiments on benchmark video datasets, we demonstrate that S-QUBED computes calibrated total uncertainty estimates that are negatively correlated with the task accuracy and effectively computes the aleatoric and epistemic constituents.

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order Theta(log n / n); (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk O(n^{-1/2}) in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as k^* = Theta(nlog(1/varepsilon)) with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

Graphical user interface (GUI) agents have shown promise in automating mobile tasks but still struggle with input redundancy and decision ambiguity. In this paper, we present RecAgent, an uncertainty-aware agent that addresses these issues through adaptive perception. We distinguish two types of uncertainty in GUI navigation: (1) perceptual uncertainty, caused by input redundancy and noise from comprehensive screen information, and (2) decision uncertainty, arising from ambiguous tasks and complex reasoning. To reduce perceptual uncertainty, RecAgent employs a component recommendation mechanism that identifies and focuses on the most relevant UI elements. For decision uncertainty, it uses an interactive module to request user feedback in ambiguous situations, enabling intent-aware decisions. These components are integrated into a unified framework that proactively reduces input complexity and reacts to high-uncertainty cases via human-in-the-loop refinement. Additionally, we propose a dataset called ComplexAction to evaluate the success rate of GUI agents in executing specified single-step actions within complex scenarios. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach. The dataset and code will be available at https://github.com/Fanye12/RecAgent.

As LLMs generate increasingly long outputs, effective uncertainty estimation must identify errors at fine-grained levels rather than discard entire responses. While such methods exist, evaluating uncertainty at any resolution (token to an entire generation) is challenging and highly sensitive to label imperfections, making zero-noise benchmarks essential; yet, long-form generation benchmarks tend to rely on fallible labels rather than deterministic ground truth. We introduce Single-answer Atomic Long-form Target (SALT), a benchmark of six procedurally generated tasks with single deterministic long textual ground truths, enabling unit-level evaluation of correctness, calibration, and ranking without external judges. Equipped with SALT, our analysis of 50+ LLMs reveals key insights: We identify which confidence functions dominate each uncertainty aspect and show that confidence ranking largely breaks at atomic resolution, even when clearer separability emerges at coarser line-level units. SALT further enables controlled atom-level interventions throughout generation, revealing two separable drivers of future errors: propagation from corrupted prefixes, dominated by global context correctness, and bounded degradation from increasing answer-context length. Finally, we demonstrate that reasoning, via Chain-of-Thought prompting or internalized through training, introduces a trade-off, improving accuracy while degrading confidence ranking. These findings directly impact risk-critical applications requiring reliable error identification and mitigation.

Existing methods for uncertainty quantification incur massive memory and compute overhead, often requiring multiple models/inferences. Hence they are impractical on ultra-low-power KB-sized TinyML devices. To reduce overhead, prior works have proposed the use of early-exit networks as ensembles to quantify uncertainty in a single forward-pass. However, they still have a prohibitive cost for tinyML. To address these challenges, we propose QUTE, a novel resource-efficient early-exit-assisted ensemble architecture optimized for tinyML models. QUTE adds additional output blocks at the final exit of the base network and distills the knowledge of early-exits into these blocks to create a diverse and lightweight ensemble architecture. Our results show that QUTE outperforms popular prior works, and improves the quality of uncertainty estimates by 6% with 3.1x lower model size on average compared to the most relevant prior work. Furthermore, we demonstrate that QUTE is also effective in detecting co-variate shifted and out-of-distribution inputs, and shows competitive performance relative to G-ODIN, a state-of-the-art generalized OOD detector.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the influence on the trustworthiness of generated responses remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating how increased examples influence predictive uncertainty, an essential aspect in trustworthiness. We begin by systematically quantifying the uncertainty of ICL with varying shot counts, analyzing the impact of example quantity. Through uncertainty decomposition, we introduce a novel perspective on performance enhancement, with a focus on epistemic uncertainty (EU). Our results reveal that additional examples reduce total uncertainty in both simple and complex tasks by injecting task-specific knowledge, thereby diminishing EU and enhancing performance. For complex tasks, these advantages emerge only after addressing the increased noise and uncertainty associated with longer inputs. Finally, we explore the evolution of internal confidence across layers, unveiling the mechanisms driving the reduction in uncertainty.

Composed Image Retrieval (CIR) enables image search by combining a reference image with modification text. Intrinsic noise in CIR triplets incurs intrinsic uncertainty and threatens the model's robustness. Probabilistic learning approaches have shown promise in addressing such issues; however, they fall short for CIR due to their instance-level holistic modeling and homogeneous treatment of queries and targets. This paper introduces a Heterogeneous Uncertainty-Guided (HUG) paradigm to overcome these limitations. HUG utilizes a fine-grained probabilistic learning framework, where queries and targets are represented by Gaussian embeddings that capture detailed concepts and uncertainties. We customize heterogeneous uncertainty estimations for multi-modal queries and uni-modal targets. Given a query, we capture uncertainties not only regarding uni-modal content quality but also multi-modal coordination, followed by a provable dynamic weighting mechanism to derive comprehensive query uncertainty. We further design uncertainty-guided objectives, including query-target holistic contrast and fine-grained contrasts with comprehensive negative sampling strategies, which effectively enhance discriminative learning. Experiments on benchmarks demonstrate HUG's effectiveness beyond state-of-the-art baselines, with faithful analysis justifying the technical contributions.

As instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) evolve, aligning pretrained foundation models presents increasing challenges. Existing alignment strategies, which typically leverage diverse and high-quality data sources, often overlook the intrinsic uncertainty of tasks, learning all data samples equally. This may lead to suboptimal data efficiency and model performance. In response, we propose uncertainty-aware learning (UAL) to improve the model alignment of different task scenarios, by introducing the sample uncertainty (elicited from more capable LLMs). We implement UAL in a simple fashion -- adaptively setting the label smoothing value of training according to the uncertainty of individual samples. Analysis shows that our UAL indeed facilitates better token clustering in the feature space, validating our hypothesis. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks demonstrate that our UAL significantly and consistently outperforms standard supervised fine-tuning. Notably, LLMs aligned in a mixed scenario have achieved an average improvement of 10.62\% on high-entropy tasks (i.e., AlpacaEval leaderboard), and 1.81\% on complex low-entropy tasks (i.e., MetaMath and GSM8K).

Large language models (LLMs) often suffer from context faithfulness hallucinations, where outputs deviate from retrieved information due to insufficient context utilization and high output uncertainty. Our uncertainty evaluation experiments reveal a strong correlation between high uncertainty and hallucinations. We hypothesize that attention mechanisms encode signals indicative of contextual utilization, validated through probing analysis. Based on these insights, we propose Dynamic Attention-Guided Context Decoding (DAGCD), a lightweight framework that integrates attention distributions and uncertainty signals in a single-pass decoding process. Experiments across QA datasets demonstrate DAGCD's effectiveness, achieving significant improvements in faithfulness and robustness while maintaining computational efficiency.

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates large language model (LLM) reasoning by using a small draft model to generate candidate tokens, which the target LLM either accepts directly or regenerates upon rejection. However, excessive alignment between the draft and target models constrains SD to the performance of the target LLM. To address this limitation, we propose Entropy-Aware Speculative Decoding (EASD), a training-free enhancement. Building on standard SD, EASD incorporates a dynamic entropy-based penalty. At each decoding step, we employ the entropy of the sampling distribution to quantify model uncertainty. When both models exhibit high entropy with substantial overlap among their top-N predictions, the corresponding token is rejected and re-sampled by the target LLM. This penalty prevents low-confidence errors from propagating. By incorporating draft-model verification, EASD enables the possibility of surpassing the target model's inherent performance. Experiments across multiple reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that EASD consistently outperforms existing SD methods and, in most cases, surpasses the target LLM itself. We further prove that the efficiency of EASD is comparable to that of SD. The code can be found in the Supplementary Materials.

We investigate composed image retrieval with text feedback. Users gradually look for the target of interest by moving from coarse to fine-grained feedback. However, existing methods merely focus on the latter, i.e., fine-grained search, by harnessing positive and negative pairs during training. This pair-based paradigm only considers the one-to-one distance between a pair of specific points, which is not aligned with the one-to-many coarse-grained retrieval process and compromises the recall rate. In an attempt to fill this gap, we introduce a unified learning approach to simultaneously modeling the coarse- and fine-grained retrieval by considering the multi-grained uncertainty. The key idea underpinning the proposed method is to integrate fine- and coarse-grained retrieval as matching data points with small and large fluctuations, respectively. Specifically, our method contains two modules: uncertainty modeling and uncertainty regularization. (1) The uncertainty modeling simulates the multi-grained queries by introducing identically distributed fluctuations in the feature space. (2) Based on the uncertainty modeling, we further introduce uncertainty regularization to adapt the matching objective according to the fluctuation range. Compared with existing methods, the proposed strategy explicitly prevents the model from pushing away potential candidates in the early stage, and thus improves the recall rate. On the three public datasets, i.e., FashionIQ, Fashion200k, and Shoes, the proposed method has achieved +4.03%, +3.38%, and +2.40% Recall@50 accuracy over a strong baseline, respectively.

Quality estimation is omnipresent in machine translation, for both evaluation and generation. Unfortunately, quality estimation models are often opaque and computationally expensive, making them impractical to be part of large-scale pipelines. In this work, we tackle two connected challenges: (1) reducing the cost of quality estimation at scale, and (2) developing an inexpensive uncertainty estimation method for quality estimation. To address the latter, we introduce Instant Confidence COMET, an uncertainty-aware quality estimation model that matches the performance of previous approaches at a fraction of their costs. We extend this to Early-Exit COMET, a quality estimation model that can compute quality scores and associated confidences already at early model layers, allowing us to early-exit computations and reduce evaluation costs. We also apply our model to machine translation reranking. We combine Early-Exit COMET with an upper confidence bound bandit algorithm to find the best candidate from a large pool without having to run the full evaluation model on all candidates. In both cases (evaluation and reranking) our methods reduce the required compute by 50% with very little degradation in performance.

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying large language model (LLM) agents in complex interactive environments. Existing UQ methods largely rely on local signals, such as token probabilities, predictive entropy, or per-step confidence, and therefore overlook the long-range dependencies through which errors accumulate across an execution trajectory. As a result, they may fail to identify agent failures whose causes originate several reasoning or interaction steps before the final answer. We propose RUPA (Relational Uncertainty Propagation for Agents), a trajectory-level UQ framework for LLM agents. RUPA represents an execution history as a directed trajectory graph in which reasoning states, tool interactions, and environment feedback are nodes connected by temporal and semantic dependency edges. It then propagates uncertainty over this graph to capture how execution risk accumulates and transfers across interaction steps. The propagated signal is combined with trajectory-level behavioral features and goal-alignment information to produce a confidence estimate for the full agent trajectory. We evaluate RUPA on representative agent benchmarks, including τ-2, Terminal-Bench-2, and GAIA, using 6 open-source LLMs spanning multiple model families. Experimental results show that RUPA consistently outperforms existing UQ methods by providing more accurate uncertainty estimates, enabling earlier failure detection, and improving uncertainty-guided agent execution across diverse agent tasks. These results demonstrate that explicitly modeling relational dependency is crucial to reliable UQ for long-horizon LLM agents, providing a practical foundation for trustworthy agent execution.

Graphical User Interface (GUI) grounding aims to translate natural language instructions into executable screen coordinates, enabling automated GUI interaction. Nevertheless, incorrect grounding can result in costly, hard-to-reverse actions (e.g., erroneous payment approvals), raising concerns about model reliability. In this paper, we introduce SafeGround, an uncertainty-aware framework for GUI grounding models that enables risk-aware predictions through calibrations before testing. SafeGround leverages a distribution-aware uncertainty quantification method to capture the spatial dispersion of stochastic samples from outputs of any given model. Then, through the calibration process, SafeGround derives a test-time decision threshold with statistically guaranteed false discovery rate (FDR) control. We apply SafeGround on multiple GUI grounding models for the challenging ScreenSpot-Pro benchmark. Experimental results show that our uncertainty measure consistently outperforms existing baselines in distinguishing correct from incorrect predictions, while the calibrated threshold reliably enables rigorous risk control and potentials of substantial system-level accuracy improvements. Across multiple GUI grounding models, SafeGround improves system-level accuracy by up to 5.38% percentage points over Gemini-only inference.

Several neural-based metrics have been recently proposed to evaluate machine translation quality. However, all of them resort to point estimates, which provide limited information at segment level. This is made worse as they are trained on noisy, biased and scarce human judgements, often resulting in unreliable quality predictions. In this paper, we introduce uncertainty-aware MT evaluation and analyze the trustworthiness of the predicted quality. We combine the COMET framework with two uncertainty estimation methods, Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles, to obtain quality scores along with confidence intervals. We compare the performance of our uncertainty-aware MT evaluation methods across multiple language pairs from the QT21 dataset and the WMT20 metrics task, augmented with MQM annotations. We experiment with varying numbers of references and further discuss the usefulness of uncertainty-aware quality estimation (without references) to flag possibly critical translation mistakes.

LLM agents extend large language models with tool-calling capabilities, but ambiguous user instructions often lead to incorrect invocations and task failures. We introduce a principled formulation of structured uncertainty over tool-call parameters, modeling joint tool-argument clarification as a POMDP with Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) objective for optimal question selection and aspect-based cost modeling to prevent redundancy. Our SAGE-Agent leverages this structured uncertainty to achieve superior efficiency: increasing coverage on ambiguous tasks by 7-39\% while reducing clarification questions by 1.5-2.7times compared to strong prompting and uncertainty-based baselines. We present ClarifyBench, the first multi-turn tool-augmented disambiguation benchmark with realistic LLM-based user simulation across diverse domains including document editing, vehicle control, and travel booking. Additionally, we demonstrate that structured uncertainty provides effective training signals for reinforcement learning, boosting When2Call accuracy from 36.5\% to 65.2\% (3B model) and 36.7\% to 62.9\% (7B model) through uncertainty-weighted GRPO training. These results establish structured uncertainty as a principled, efficient approach for tool-augmented agents, improving both task success and interaction efficiency in real-world scenarios.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has been demonstrated as an efficient method to scale up models. By dynamically and sparsely selecting activated experts, MoE can effectively reduce computational costs. Despite the success, we observe that many tokens in the MoE models have uncertain routing results. These tokens have nearly equal scores for choosing each expert, and we demonstrate that this uncertainty can lead to incorrect selections. Inspired by the Global Workspace Theory (GWT), we propose a new fine-tuning method, GW-MoE, to address this issue. The core idea is to broadcast the uncertain tokens across experts during fine-tuning. Therefore, these tokens can acquire the necessary knowledge from any expert during inference and become less sensitive to the choice. GW-MoE does not introduce additional inference overhead. We validate that GW can mitigate the uncertain problem and consistently improve in different tasks (text classification, question answering, summarization, code generation, and mathematical problem solving) and model sizes (650M and 8B parameters).

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for large language models (LLMs) is a key building block for safety guardrails of daily LLM applications. Yet, even as LLM agents are increasingly deployed in highly complex tasks, most UQ research still centers on single-turn question-answering. We argue that UQ research must shift to realistic settings with interactive agents, and that a new principled framework for agent UQ is needed. This paper presents the first general formulation of agent UQ that subsumes broad classes of existing UQ setups. Under this formulation, we show that prior works implicitly treat LLM UQ as an uncertainty accumulation process, a viewpoint that breaks down for interactive agents in an open world. In contrast, we propose a novel perspective, a conditional uncertainty reduction process, that explicitly models reducible uncertainty over an agent's trajectory by highlighting "interactivity" of actions. From this perspective, we outline a conceptual framework to provide actionable guidance for designing UQ in LLM agent setups. Finally, we conclude with practical implications of the agent UQ in frontier LLM development and domain-specific applications, as well as open remaining problems.

Reasoning over heterogeneous artifacts (PDFs, spreadsheets, slide decks, etc.) increasingly occurs within structured agent workflows that iteratively extract, transform, and reference external information. In these workflows, uncertainty is not merely an input-quality issue: it can redirect decomposition and routing decisions, reshape intermediate state, and produce qualitatively different execution trajectories. We study this phenomenon by treating uncertainty as a controlled variable: we inject structured perturbations into artifact-derived representations, execute fixed workflows under comprehensive logging, and quantify contamination via trace divergence in plans, tool invocations, and intermediate state. Across 614 paired runs on 32 GAIA tasks with three different language models, we find a decoupling: workflows may diverge substantially yet recover correct answers, or remain structurally similar while producing incorrect outputs. We characterize three manifestation types: silent semantic corruption, behavioral detours with recovery, and combined structural disruption and their control-flow signatures (rerouting, extended execution, early termination). We measure operational costs and characterize why commonly used verification guardrails fail to intercept contamination. We contribute (i) a formal taxonomy of contamination manifestations in structured workflows, (ii) a trace-based measurement framework for detecting and localizing contamination across agent interactions, and (iii) empirical evidence with implications for targeted verification, defensive design, and cost control.

Quantization has significantly improved the compute and memory efficiency of Large Language Model (LLM) training. However, existing approaches still rely on accumulating their updates in high-precision: concretely, gradient updates must be applied to a high-precision weight buffer, known as master weights. This buffer introduces substantial memory overhead, particularly for Sparse Mixture of Experts (SMoE) models, where model parameters and optimizer states dominate memory usage. To address this, we introduce the Error-Compensating Optimizer (ECO), which eliminates master weights by applying updates directly to quantized parameters. ECO quantizes weights after each step and carefully injects the resulting quantization error into the optimizer momentum, forming an error-feedback loop with no additional memory. We prove that, under standard assumptions and a decaying learning rate, ECO converges to a constant-radius neighborhood of the optimum, while naive master-weight removal can incur an error that is inversely proportional to the learning rate. We show empirical results for pretraining small Transformers (30-800M), a Gemma-3 1B model, and a 2.1B parameter Sparse MoE model with FP8 quantization, and fine-tuning DeepSeek-MoE-16B in INT4 precision. Throughout, ECO matches baselines with master weights up to near-lossless accuracy, significantly shifting the static memory vs validation loss Pareto frontier.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across various domains, including computer vision and natural language processing. However, they often struggle to accurately quantify the uncertainty of their predictions, limiting their broader adoption in critical real-world applications. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for Deep Learning seeks to address this challenge by providing methods to improve the reliability of uncertainty estimates. Although numerous techniques have been proposed, a unified tool offering a seamless workflow to evaluate and integrate these methods remains lacking. To bridge this gap, we introduce Torch-Uncertainty, a PyTorch and Lightning-based framework designed to streamline DNN training and evaluation with UQ techniques and metrics. In this paper, we outline the foundational principles of our library and present comprehensive experimental results that benchmark a diverse set of UQ methods across classification, segmentation, and regression tasks. Our library is available at https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS-AI/Torch-Uncertainty

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, the ability to reliably quantify uncertainty has become a critical requirement for safety and trust. However, current uncertainty quantification methods primarily operate at the output level, often failing to distinguish whether uncertainty arises from the model's lack of knowledge or from ambiguity in the user's input. While input-centric uncertainty quantification has recently emerged as a promising direction, it remains relatively underexplored and typically relies on coarse, input-level information. Consequently, users are provided with scalar uncertainty scores that offer little actionable guidance on which parts of the input should be clarified to improve reliability. To address this limitation, we propose Shapley-based input uncertainty Quantification (ShaQ), a framework for span-level attribution of input-induced uncertainty. Our approach models ambiguous spans in the input as players in a cooperative game and quantifies their contributions using Shapley values, defined via the weighted average of marginal reductions in conditional entropy obtained by clarifying each span coalition. Unlike existing input-level approaches, our formulation captures complex interactions among spans and provides a principled decomposition in which individual attributions sum exactly to the total input-induced uncertainty. We evaluate ShaQ on the AmbigQA and AmbiEnt benchmarks, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance in ambiguity detection. We further demonstrate its utility on MediTOD, showing that ShaQ can localize under-specified clinical utterances and facilitate human-AI collaboration in high-stakes settings. Overall, ShaQ improves uncertainty estimation and provides actionable insights for targeted input clarification.

To support emerging language-based applications using dispersed and heterogeneous computing resources, the hybrid language model (HLM) offers a promising architecture, where an on-device small language model (SLM) generates draft tokens that are validated and corrected by a remote large language model (LLM). However, the original HLM suffers from substantial communication overhead, as the LLM requires the SLM to upload the full vocabulary distribution for each token. Moreover, both communication and computation resources are wasted when the LLM validates tokens that are highly likely to be accepted. To overcome these limitations, we propose communication-efficient and uncertainty-aware HLM (CU-HLM). In CU-HLM, the SLM transmits truncated vocabulary distributions only when its output uncertainty is high. We validate the feasibility of this opportunistic transmission by discovering a strong correlation between SLM's uncertainty and LLM's rejection probability. Furthermore, we theoretically derive optimal uncertainty thresholds and optimal vocabulary truncation strategies. Simulation results show that, compared to standard HLM, CU-HLM achieves up to 206times higher token throughput by skipping 74.8% transmissions with 97.4% vocabulary compression, while maintaining 97.4% accuracy.

Learning-augmented paging has been extensively studied in recent years. A key advantage over naive ML-based approaches is bounded robustness, which guarantees worst-case performance even when predictions are inaccurate, making these algorithms valuable for real-world systems. Prior work achieves robustness bounds of 2H_k + O(1) in the randomized setting, leaving a gap to the optimal competitive ratio H_k. In this paper, we study how to close this gap. We begin by reviewing online optimality and proving a new property of the latest H_k-competitive algorithm, which facilitates our analysis in the learning-augmented setting. Then, we review existing learning-augmented paging algorithms and introduce a unifying primitive, the relative prediction budget, which captures the essence of establishing robustness and reveals that prior algorithms either overuse or underutilize predictions. Guided by the above analysis, we develop a new framework that achieves the best-possible robustness up to an additive constant for learning-augmented paging: H_k + O(1). Experiments further demonstrate strong practical performance.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) have recently emerged as a strong alternative to autoregressive models by enabling parallel text generation. To improve inference efficiency and KV-cache compatibility, prior work commonly adopts block-based diffusion, decoding tokens block by block. However, this paradigm suffers from a structural limitation that we term Boundary-Induced Context Truncation (BICT): undecoded tokens near block boundaries are forced to commit without access to nearby future context, even when such context could substantially reduce uncertainty. This limitation degrades decoding certainty and generation quality, especially for tasks requiring precise reasoning, such as mathematical problem solving and code generation. We propose Deferred Commitment Decoding (DCD), a novel, training-free decoding strategy that mitigates this issue. DCD maintains a certainty-aware sliding window over masked tokens, resolving low-uncertainty tokens early while deferring high-uncertainty tokens until sufficient contextual evidence becomes available. Extensive experiments across multiple diffusion language models, benchmarks, and caching configurations show that DCD improves generation accuracy by 1.73% with comparable time on average compared to fixed block-based diffusion methods, with the most significant improvement reaching 16.5%. These results demonstrate that deferring token commitment based on uncertainty is a simple yet effective principle for improving both the quality and efficiency of diffusion language model decoding.

Instance embeddings are an efficient and versatile image representation that facilitates applications like recognition, verification, retrieval, and clustering. Many metric learning methods represent the input as a single point in the embedding space. Often the distance between points is used as a proxy for match confidence. However, this can fail to represent uncertainty arising when the input is ambiguous, e.g., due to occlusion or blurriness. This work addresses this issue and explicitly models the uncertainty by hedging the location of each input in the embedding space. We introduce the hedged instance embedding (HIB) in which embeddings are modeled as random variables and the model is trained under the variational information bottleneck principle. Empirical results on our new N-digit MNIST dataset show that our method leads to the desired behavior of hedging its bets across the embedding space upon encountering ambiguous inputs. This results in improved performance for image matching and classification tasks, more structure in the learned embedding space, and an ability to compute a per-exemplar uncertainty measure that is correlated with downstream performance.

While Experience Replay - the practice of storing rollouts and reusing them multiple times during training - is a foundational technique in general RL, it remains largely unexplored in LLM post-training due to the prevailing belief that fresh, on-policy data is essential for high performance. In this work, we challenge this assumption. We present a systematic study of replay buffers for LLM post-training, formalizing the optimal design as a trade-off between staleness-induced variance, sample diversity and the high computational cost of generation. We show that strict on-policy sampling is suboptimal when generation is expensive. Empirically, we show that a well-designed replay buffer can drastically reduce inference compute without degrading - and in some cases even improving - final model performance, while preserving policy entropy.

Foundation models for segmentation such as the Segment Anything Model (SAM) family exhibit strong zero-shot performance, but remain vulnerable in shifted or limited-knowledge domains. This work investigates whether uncertainty quantification can mitigate such challenges and enhance model generalisability in a domain-agnostic manner. To this end, we (1) curate UncertSAM, a benchmark comprising eight datasets designed to stress-test SAM under challenging segmentation conditions including shadows, transparency, and camouflage; (2) evaluate a suite of lightweight, post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods; and (3) assess a preliminary uncertainty-guided prediction refinement step. Among evaluated approaches, a last-layer Laplace approximation yields uncertainty estimates that correlate well with segmentation errors, indicating a meaningful signal. While refinement benefits are preliminary, our findings underscore the potential of incorporating uncertainty into segmentation models to support robust, domain-agnostic performance. Our benchmark and code are made publicly available.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models enable scalable performance but face severe memory constraints on edge devices. Existing offloading strategies struggle with I/O bottlenecks due to the dynamic, low-information nature of autoregressive expert activation. In this paper, we propose to repurpose Speculative Decoding (SD) not merely as a compute accelerator, but as an informative lookahead sensor for memory management, supported by our theoretical and empirical analyses. Hence, we introduce MoE-SpAc, an MoE inference framework that integrates a Speculative Utility Estimator to track expert demand, a Heterogeneous Workload Balancer to dynamically partition computation via online integer optimization, and an Asynchronous Execution Engine to unify the prefetching and eviction in the same utility space. Extensive experiments on seven benchmarks demonstrate that MoE-SpAc achieves a 42% improvement in TPS over the SOTA SD-based baseline, and an average 4.04x speedup over all standard baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/lshAlgorithm/MoE-SpAc .

The growing context lengths of large language models (LLMs) pose significant challenges for efficient inference, primarily due to GPU memory and bandwidth constraints. We present RetroInfer, a novel system that reconceptualizes the key-value (KV) cache as a vector storage system which exploits the inherent attention sparsity to accelerate long-context LLM inference. At its core is the wave index, an Attention-aWare VEctor index that enables efficient and accurate retrieval of critical tokens through techniques such as tripartite attention approximation, accuracy-bounded attention estimation, and segmented clustering. Complementing this is the wave buffer, which coordinates KV cache placement and overlaps computation and data transfer across GPU and CPU to sustain high throughput. Unlike prior sparsity-based methods that struggle with token selection and hardware coordination, RetroInfer delivers robust performance without compromising model accuracy. Experiments on long-context benchmarks show up to 4.5X speedup over full attention within GPU memory limits and up to 10.5X over sparse attention baselines when KV cache is extended to CPU memory, all while preserving full-attention-level accuracy.

Representation learning has significantly driven the field to develop pretrained models that can act as a valuable starting point when transferring to new datasets. With the rising demand for reliable machine learning and uncertainty quantification, there is a need for pretrained models that not only provide embeddings but also transferable uncertainty estimates. To guide the development of such models, we propose the Uncertainty-aware Representation Learning (URL) benchmark. Besides the transferability of the representations, it also measures the zero-shot transferability of the uncertainty estimate using a novel metric. We apply URL to evaluate eleven uncertainty quantifiers that are pretrained on ImageNet and transferred to eight downstream datasets. We find that approaches that focus on the uncertainty of the representation itself or estimate the prediction risk directly outperform those that are based on the probabilities of upstream classes. Yet, achieving transferable uncertainty quantification remains an open challenge. Our findings indicate that it is not necessarily in conflict with traditional representation learning goals. Code is provided under https://github.com/mkirchhof/url .

In this work, we explore uncertainty estimation as a proxy for correctness in LLM-generated code. To this end, we adapt two state-of-the-art techniques from natural language generation -- one based on entropy and another on mutual information -- to the domain of code generation. Given the distinct semantic properties of code, we introduce modifications, including a semantic equivalence check based on symbolic execution. Our findings indicate a strong correlation between the uncertainty computed through these techniques and correctness, highlighting the potential of uncertainty estimation for quality assessment. Additionally, we propose a simplified version of the entropy-based method that assumes a uniform distribution over the LLM's responses, demonstrating comparable effectiveness. Using these techniques, we develop an abstention policy that prevents the model from making predictions when uncertainty is high, reducing incorrect outputs to near zero. Our evaluation on the LiveCodeBench shows that our approach significantly outperforms a baseline relying solely on LLM-reported log-probabilities.

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a dilemma: uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods typically act as passive sensors, only diagnosing risks without addressing them, while self-reflection mechanisms suffer from continuous or aimless corrections. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified Dual-Process Agentic UQ (AUQ) framework that transforms verbalized uncertainty into active, bi-directional control signals. Our architecture comprises two complementary mechanisms: System 1 (Uncertainty-Aware Memory, UAM), which implicitly propagates verbalized confidence and semantic explanations to prevent blind decision-making; and System 2 (Uncertainty-Aware Reflection, UAR), which utilizes these explanations as rational cues to trigger targeted inference-time resolution only when necessary. This enables the agent to balance efficient execution and deep deliberation dynamically. Extensive experiments on closed-loop benchmarks and open-ended deep research tasks demonstrate that our training-free approach achieves superior performance and trajectory-level calibration. We believe this principled framework AUQ represents a significant step towards reliable agents.

The rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) has created significant challenges for efficient inference at scale. Unlike traditional workloads, LLM inference is constrained by both computation and the memory overhead of key-value (KV) caching, which accelerates decoding but quickly exhausts GPU memory. In this paper, we introduce the first queueing-theoretic framework that explicitly incorporates both computation and GPU memory constraints into the analysis of LLM inference. Based on this framework, we derive rigorous stability and instability conditions that determine whether an LLM inference service can sustain incoming demand without unbounded queue growth. This result offers a powerful tool for system deployment, potentially addressing the core challenge of GPU provisioning. By combining an estimated request arrival rate with our derived stable service rate, operators can calculate the necessary cluster size to avoid both costly over-purchasing and performance-violating under-provisioning. We further validate our theoretical predictions through extensive experiments in real GPU production environments. Our results show that the predicted stability conditions are highly accurate, with deviations typically within 10%.

The task of Error Prediction, namely predicting whether a model output is correct, is commonly tackled with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). However, while uncertainty metrics capture when models lack knowledge or capacity to make a prediction, they also reflect aleatoric uncertainty, which is inherent in the model input and context. This paper presents a method for improving error prediction for Large Language Models (LLMs), by disentangling input ambiguity from UQ signal. We conduct experiments on the task of Question Answering (QA) with six UQ metrics and show that UQ metrics are more predictive of errors on unambiguous instances than on questions with multiple plausible answers. We use Gated Experts and Selective Prediction to incorporate gold and predicted ambiguity labels into the error prediction pipeline. We find that ambiguity information improves error prediction scores across model families, training and evaluation paradigms, datasets (including allegedly unambiguous ones), and sources of aleatoric uncertainty, yielding improvements of over 10 points of PRR for individual UQ metrics on standard datasets.

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.

Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically benchmarked against tasks with no ambiguity. In this work, we demonstrate that while current uncertainty estimators perform well under the restrictive assumption of no ambiguity, they degrade to close-to-random performance on ambiguous data. To this end, we introduce MAQA* and AmbigQA*, the first ambiguous question-answering (QA) datasets equipped with ground-truth answer distributions estimated from factual co-occurrence. We find this performance deterioration to be consistent across different estimation paradigms: using the predictive distribution itself, internal representations throughout the model, and an ensemble of models. We show that this phenomenon can be theoretically explained, revealing that predictive-distribution and ensemble-based estimators are fundamentally limited under ambiguity. Overall, our study reveals a key shortcoming of current UQ methods for LLMs and motivates a rethinking of current modeling paradigms.

Accurately quantifying a large language model's (LLM) predictive uncertainty is crucial for judging the reliability of its answers. While most existing research focuses on short, directly answerable questions with closed-form outputs (e.g., multiple-choice), involving intermediate reasoning steps in LLM responses is increasingly important. This added complexity complicates uncertainty quantification (UQ) because the probabilities assigned to answer tokens are conditioned on a vast space of preceding reasoning tokens. Direct marginalization is infeasible, and the dependency inflates probability estimates, causing overconfidence in UQ. To address this, we propose UQAC, an efficient method that narrows the reasoning space to a tractable size for marginalization. UQAC iteratively constructs an "attention chain" of tokens deemed "semantically crucial" to the final answer via a backtracking procedure. Starting from the answer tokens, it uses attention weights to identify the most influential predecessors, then iterates this process until reaching the input tokens. Similarity filtering and probability thresholding further refine the resulting chain, allowing us to approximate the marginal probabilities of the answer tokens, which serve as the LLM's confidence. We validate UQAC on multiple reasoning benchmarks with advanced open-source LLMs, demonstrating that it consistently delivers reliable UQ estimates with high computational efficiency.

Speculative decoding has emerged as a popular method to accelerate the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) while retaining their superior text generation performance. Previous methods either adopt a fixed speculative decoding configuration regardless of the prefix tokens, or train draft models in an offline or online manner to align them with the context. This paper proposes a training-free online learning framework to adaptively choose the configuration of the hyperparameters for speculative decoding as text is being generated. We first formulate this hyperparameter selection problem as a Multi-Armed Bandit problem and provide a general speculative decoding framework BanditSpec. Furthermore, two bandit-based hyperparameter selection algorithms, UCBSpec and EXP3Spec, are designed and analyzed in terms of a novel quantity, the stopping time regret. We upper bound this regret under both stochastic and adversarial reward settings. By deriving an information-theoretic impossibility result, it is shown that the regret performance of UCBSpec is optimal up to universal constants. Finally, extensive empirical experiments with LLaMA3 and Qwen2 demonstrate that our algorithms are effective compared to existing methods, and the throughput is close to the oracle best hyperparameter in simulated real-life LLM serving scenarios with diverse input prompts.

Speculative Decoding (SD) has emerged as a critical technique for accelerating Large Language Model (LLM) inference. Unlike deterministic system optimizations, SD performance is inherently data-dependent, meaning that diverse and representative workloads are essential for accurately measuring its effectiveness. Existing benchmarks suffer from limited task diversity, inadequate support for throughput-oriented evaluation, and a reliance on high-level implementations that fail to reflect production environments. To address this, we introduce SPEED-Bench, a comprehensive suite designed to standardize SD evaluation across diverse semantic domains and realistic serving regimes. SPEED-Bench offers a carefully curated Qualitative data split, selected by prioritizing semantic diversity across the data samples. Additionally, it includes a Throughput data split, allowing speedup evaluation across a range of concurrencies, from latency-sensitive low-batch settings to throughput-oriented high-load scenarios. By integrating with production engines like vLLM and TensorRT-LLM, SPEED-Bench allows practitioners to analyze system behaviors often masked by other benchmarks. We highlight this by quantifying how synthetic inputs overestimate real-world throughput, identifying batch-size dependent optimal draft lengths and biases in low-diversity data, and analyzing the caveats of vocabulary pruning in state-of-the-art drafters. We release SPEED-Bench to establish a unified evaluation standard for practical comparisons of SD algorithms.

Speculative decoding is widely used in accelerating large language model (LLM) inference. In this work, we focus on the online draft model selection problem in speculative decoding. We design an algorithm that provably competes with the best draft model in hindsight for each query in terms of either the token acceptance probability or expected acceptance length. In particular, we show that we can accurately evaluate all draft models, instead of only the chosen model without incurring additional queries to the target model, which allows us to improve exponentially over the existing bandit-based approach as the number of draft models increases. Our approach is generically applicable with any speculative decoding methods (single draft, multi-drafts and draft-trees). Moreover, we design system-efficient versions of online learners and demonstrate that the overhead in computation and latency can be substantially reduced. We conduct extensive experiments on open-source LLMs and diverse datasets, demonstrating that our methods substantially outperform the state-of-the-art EAGLE3 and the BanditSpec baseline in a variety of domains where specialized domain-expert drafters are available, especially when long reasoning chains are required.

When facing changing environments in the real world, the lightweight model on client devices suffers from severe performance drops under distribution shifts. The main limitations of the existing device model lie in (1) unable to update due to the computation limit of the device, (2) the limited generalization ability of the lightweight model. Meanwhile, recent large models have shown strong generalization capability on the cloud while they can not be deployed on client devices due to poor computation constraints. To enable the device model to deal with changing environments, we propose a new learning paradigm of Cloud-Device Collaborative Continual Adaptation, which encourages collaboration between cloud and device and improves the generalization of the device model. Based on this paradigm, we further propose an Uncertainty-based Visual Prompt Adapted (U-VPA) teacher-student model to transfer the generalization capability of the large model on the cloud to the device model. Specifically, we first design the Uncertainty Guided Sampling (UGS) to screen out challenging data continuously and transmit the most out-of-distribution samples from the device to the cloud. Then we propose a Visual Prompt Learning Strategy with Uncertainty guided updating (VPLU) to specifically deal with the selected samples with more distribution shifts. We transmit the visual prompts to the device and concatenate them with the incoming data to pull the device testing distribution closer to the cloud training distribution. We conduct extensive experiments on two object detection datasets with continually changing environments. Our proposed U-VPA teacher-student framework outperforms previous state-of-the-art test time adaptation and device-cloud collaboration methods. The code and datasets will be released.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of natural language processing tasks. Exploiting the heterogeneous capabilities of edge LLMs is crucial for diverse emerging applications, as it enables greater cost-effectiveness and reduced latency. In this work, we introduce Mixture-of-Edge-Experts (MoE^2), a novel collaborative inference framework for edge LLMs. We formulate the joint gating and expert selection problem to optimize inference performance under energy and latency constraints. Unlike conventional MoE problems, LLM expert selection is significantly more challenging due to the combinatorial nature and the heterogeneity of edge LLMs across various attributes. To this end, we propose a two-level expert selection mechanism through which we uncover an optimality-preserving property of gating parameters across expert selections. This property enables the decomposition of the training and selection processes, significantly reducing complexity. Furthermore, we leverage the objective's monotonicity and design a discrete monotonic optimization algorithm for optimal expert selection. We implement edge servers with NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orins and NVIDIA RTX 4090 GPUs, and perform extensive experiments. Our results validate that performance improvements of various LLM models and show that our MoE^2 method can achieve optimal trade-offs among different delay and energy budgets, and outperforms baselines under various system resource constraints.

Recent advances in Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have significantly improved long-chain reasoning capabilities over Large Language Models (LLMs). However, LRMs often produce unnecessarily lengthy outputs even for simple queries, leading to inefficiencies or even accuracy degradation compared to LLMs. To overcome this, we propose CP-Router, a training-free and model-agnostic routing framework that dynamically selects between an LLM and an LRM, demonstrated with multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) prompts. The routing decision is guided by the prediction uncertainty estimates derived via Conformal Prediction (CP), which provides rigorous coverage guarantees. To further refine the uncertainty differentiation across inputs, we introduce Full and Binary Entropy (FBE), a novel entropy-based criterion that adaptively selects the appropriate CP threshold. Experiments across diverse MCQA benchmarks, including mathematics, logical reasoning, and Chinese chemistry, demonstrate that CP-Router efficiently reduces token usage while maintaining or even improving accuracy compared to using LRM alone. We also extend CP-Router to diverse model pairings and open-ended QA, where it continues to demonstrate strong performance, validating its generality and robustness.

The emergence of large-scale Mixture of Experts (MoE) models has marked a significant advancement in artificial intelligence, offering enhanced model capacity and computational efficiency through conditional computation. However, the deployment and inference of these models present substantial challenges in terms of computational resources, latency, and energy efficiency. This comprehensive survey systematically analyzes the current landscape of inference optimization techniques for MoE models across the entire system stack. We first establish a taxonomical framework that categorizes optimization approaches into model-level, system-level, and hardware-level optimizations. At the model level, we examine architectural innovations including efficient expert design, attention mechanisms, various compression techniques such as pruning, quantization, and knowledge distillation, as well as algorithm improvement including dynamic routing strategies and expert merging methods. At the system level, we investigate distributed computing approaches, load balancing mechanisms, and efficient scheduling algorithms that enable scalable deployment. Furthermore, we delve into hardware-specific optimizations and co-design strategies that maximize throughput and energy efficiency. This survey not only provides a structured overview of existing solutions but also identifies key challenges and promising research directions in MoE inference optimization. Our comprehensive analysis serves as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners working on large-scale deployment of MoE models in resource-constrained environments. To facilitate ongoing updates and the sharing of cutting-edge advances in MoE inference optimization research, we have established a repository accessible at https://github.com/MoE-Inf/awesome-moe-inference/.

Vision-language models (VLMs) frequently generate hallucinated content plausible but incorrect claims about image content. We propose a training-free self-correction framework enabling VLMs to iteratively refine responses through uncertainty-guided visual re-attention. Our method combines multidimensional uncertainty quantification (token entropy, attention dispersion, semantic consistency, claim confidence) with attention-guided cropping of under-explored regions. Operating entirely with frozen, pretrained VLMs, our framework requires no gradient updates. We validate our approach on the POPE and MMHAL BENCH benchmarks using the Qwen2.5-VL-7B [23] architecture. Experimental results demonstrate that our method reduces hallucination rates by 9.8 percentage points compared to the baseline, while improving object existence accuracy by 4.7 points on adversarial splits. Furthermore, qualitative analysis confirms that uncertainty-guided re-attention successfully grounds corrections in visual evidence where standard decoding fails. We validate our approach on Qwen2.5-VL-7B [23], with plans to extend validation across diverse architectures in future versions. We release our code and methodology to facilitate future research in trustworthy multimodal systems.

Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference by using a draft model to look ahead, but gains are capped by the cost of autoregressive draft generation: increasing draft size elevates acceptance rates but introduces additional latency overhead exacerbating the speed-accuracy tradeoff. Prior methods (Medusa, Hydra, EAGLE) partially reduce draft cost but either degrade acceptance or introduce overheads that limit scaling. We present Mirror Speculative Decoding (Mirror-SD), an inference algorithm that breaks the latency-acceptance tradeoff. Mirror-SD launches branch-complete rollouts from early-exit signals in parallel with the target model's suffix and explicitly maps computation across heterogeneous accelerators (GPU and NPU) to exploit cross-device parallelism. The draft speculates forward continuations for the target to verify, while the target simultaneously speculates correction paths for the draft, converting speculation into two complementary execution pipelines. To further cut draft latency without weakening acceptance semantics, we add speculative streaming so the draft emits multiple tokens per step. This dual strategy of parallel heterogeneous execution plus multi-token speculative streaming pushes speculative decoding toward its ideal regime of high acceptance with low overhead. On SpecBench with server-scale models from 14B to 66B parameters, Mirror-SD delivers consistent end-to-end gains, achieving 2.8x-5.8x wall-time speedups across diverse tasks and a 30% average relative improvement over the strongest baseline, EAGLE3.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) research has primarily focused on closed-book factual question answering (QA), while contextual QA remains unexplored, despite its importance in real-world applications. In this work, we focus on UQ for the contextual QA task and propose a theoretically grounded approach to quantify epistemic uncertainty. We begin by introducing a task-agnostic, token-level uncertainty measure defined as the cross-entropy between the predictive distribution of the given model and the unknown true distribution. By decomposing this measure, we isolate the epistemic component and approximate the true distribution by a perfectly prompted, idealized model. We then derive an upper bound for epistemic uncertainty and show that it can be interpreted as semantic feature gaps in the given model's hidden representations relative to the ideal model. We further apply this generic framework to the contextual QA task and hypothesize that three features approximate this gap: context-reliance (using the provided context rather than parametric knowledge), context comprehension (extracting relevant information from context), and honesty (avoiding intentional lies). Using a top-down interpretability approach, we extract these features by using only a small number of labeled samples and ensemble them to form a robust uncertainty score. Experiments on multiple QA benchmarks in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings show that our method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised (sampling-free and sampling-based) and supervised UQ methods, achieving up to a 13-point PRR improvement while incurring a negligible inference overhead.

Vision-language-action models (VLAs) combine vision-language backbones with expressive generative action heads trained via flow matching on large-scale robotic datasets. Despite their strong empirical performance in robotic manipulation, VLAs lack mechanisms to quantify confidence in their predictions and to detect when their actions may be unreliable. This presents a critical limitation for real-world deployment in non-stationary environments, where models inevitably encounter scenarios outside their pretraining distribution and may fail without warning. To address this, we derive an efficient method for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-matching models by leveraging velocity-field disagreement (VFD) across a small ensemble. We successfully use this uncertainty estimate for failure detection during deployment and active fine-tuning of flow-based VLAs. To this end, we propose SAVE, a framework for uncertainty-guided active multitask fine-tuning that reduces the number of costly expert demonstrations required to adapt VLAs to new tasks. Through extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark, we demonstrate that VFD yields better-calibrated uncertainty estimates predictive of downstream performance, that VFD achieves strong performance in detecting failures, and that uncertainty-guided data acquisition with SAVE requires at least 22% fewer samples than baselines. In summary, our work shows that quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-based VLAs improves both failure awareness and adaptation. Project website: tum-lsy.github.io/uq_vla/.

Vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP and SigLIP, have found remarkable success in classification, retrieval, and generative tasks. For this, VLMs deterministically map images and text descriptions to a joint latent space in which their similarity is assessed using the cosine similarity. However, a deterministic mapping of inputs fails to capture uncertainties over concepts arising from domain shifts when used in downstream tasks. In this work, we propose post-hoc uncertainty estimation in VLMs that does not require additional training. Our method leverages a Bayesian posterior approximation over the last layers in VLMs and analytically quantifies uncertainties over cosine similarities. We demonstrate its effectiveness for uncertainty quantification and support set selection in active learning. Compared to baselines, we obtain improved and well-calibrated predictive uncertainties, interpretable uncertainty estimates, and sample-efficient active learning. Our results show promise for safety-critical applications of large-scale models.

Recent advances in generative video models have led to significant breakthroughs in high-fidelity video synthesis, specifically in controllable video generation where the generated video is conditioned on text and action inputs, e.g., in instruction-guided video editing and world modeling in robotics. Despite these exceptional capabilities, controllable video models often hallucinate - generating future video frames that are misaligned with physical reality - which raises serious concerns in many tasks such as robot policy evaluation and planning. However, state-of-the-art video models lack the ability to assess and express their confidence, impeding hallucination mitigation. To rigorously address this challenge, we propose C3, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for training continuous-scale calibrated controllable video models for dense confidence estimation at the subpatch level, precisely localizing the uncertainty in each generated video frame. Our UQ method introduces three core innovations to empower video models to estimate their uncertainty. First, our method develops a novel framework that trains video models for correctness and calibration via strictly proper scoring rules. Second, we estimate the video model's uncertainty in latent space, avoiding training instability and prohibitive training costs associated with pixel-space approaches. Third, we map the dense latent-space uncertainty to interpretable pixel-level uncertainty in the RGB space for intuitive visualization, providing high-resolution uncertainty heatmaps that identify untrustworthy regions. Through extensive experiments on large-scale robot learning datasets (Bridge and DROID) and real-world evaluations, we demonstrate that our method not only provides calibrated uncertainty estimates within the training distribution, but also enables effective out-of-distribution detection.

Sparse Mixture of Experts (MoE) models, while outperforming dense Large Language Models (LLMs) in terms of performance, face significant deployment challenges during inference due to their high memory demands. Existing offloading techniques, which involve swapping activated and idle experts between the GPU and CPU, often suffer from rigid expert caching mechanisms. These mechanisms fail to adapt to dynamic routing, leading to inefficient cache utilization, or incur prohibitive costs for prediction training. To tackle these inference-specific challenges, we introduce ExpertFlow, a comprehensive system specifically designed to enhance inference efficiency by accommodating flexible routing and enabling efficient expert scheduling between CPU and GPU. This reduces overhead and boosts system performance. Central to our approach is a predictive routing path-based offloading mechanism that utilizes a lightweight predictor to accurately forecast routing paths before computation begins. This proactive strategy allows for real-time error correction in expert caching, significantly increasing cache hit ratios and reducing the frequency of expert transfers, thereby minimizing I/O overhead. Additionally, we implement a dynamic token scheduling strategy that optimizes MoE inference by rearranging input tokens across different batches. This method not only reduces the number of activated experts per batch but also improves computational efficiency. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that ExpertFlow achieves up to 93.72\% GPU memory savings and enhances inference speed by 2 to 10 times compared to baseline methods, highlighting its effectiveness and utility as a robust solution for resource-constrained inference scenarios.

As Large Language Model (LLM) agents are increasingly deployed in open-ended domains like software engineering, they frequently encounter underspecified instructions that lack crucial context. While human developers naturally resolve underspecification by asking clarifying questions, current agents are largely optimized for autonomous execution. In this work, we systematically evaluate the clarification-seeking abilities of LLM agents on an underspecified variant of SWE-bench Verified. We propose an uncertainty-aware multi-agent scaffold that explicitly decouples underspecification detection from code execution. Our results demonstrate that this multi-agent system using OpenHands + Claude Sonnet 4.5 achieves a 69.40% task resolve rate, significantly outperforming a standard single-agent setup (61.20%) and closing the performance gap with agents operating on fully specified instructions. Furthermore, we find that the multi-agent system exhibits well-calibrated uncertainty, conserving queries on simple tasks while proactively seeking information on more complex issues. These findings indicate that current models can be turned into proactive collaborators, where agents independently recognize when to ask questions to elicit missing information in real-world, underspecified tasks.

LLM agents increasingly rely on retrieval buffers to store and reuse past experience, yet the cache management policies governing these buffers remain largely ad-hoc. We formalize this as an online semantic cache replacement problem with switching costs, where items are matched by embedding similarity and hit quality is continuous rather than binary. Through experiments on two datasets from MemoryBench-Full (LoCoMo, DialSim) with 8 replacement policies, we reveal a surprising finding: classic heuristics (LRU, LFU) consistently underperform the naive FIFO baseline on semantic workloads, due to the absence of temporal locality and frequency concentration. We propose SOLAR, a learning-augmented framework that derives modification timing from regret accumulation (achieving sim17\% modification rate) and content selection from Bayesian online learning over implicit retrieval feedback. We prove SOLAR achieves a constant competitive ratio leq 3, independent of cache size and horizon (vs.\ Ω(K) for FIFO), and eviction regret O(KTlog T), matching the Ω(KT) lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments demonstrate 5--75\% relative improvement over FIFO at tight cache sizes, with a clearly characterized phase transition at the working set boundary. Synthetic experiments with 5000-item pools further reveal an inverted-U relationship between pool size and retrieval quality, justifying capacity constraints as a retrieval noise phenomenon rather than a storage limitation.

An utterance-level speaker embedding is typically obtained by aggregating a sequence of frame-level representations. However, in real-world scenarios, individual frames encode not only speaker-relevant information but also various nuisance factors. As a result, different frames contribute unequally to the final utterance-level speaker representation for Automatic Speaker Verification systems. To address this issue, we propose to estimate the inherent uncertainty of each frame and assign adaptive weights accordingly, where frames with higher uncertainty receive lower attention. Based on this idea, we present U3-xi, a comprehensive framework designed to produce more reliable and interpretable uncertainty estimates for speaker embeddings. Specifically, we introduce several strategies for uncertainty supervision. First, we propose speaker-level uncertainty supervision via a Stochastic Variance Loss, where the distance between an utterance embedding and its corresponding speaker centroid serves as a pseudo ground truth for uncertainty learning. Second, we incorporate global-level uncertainty supervision by injecting the predicted uncertainty into the sof tmax scale during training. This adaptive scaling mechanism adjusts the sharpness of the decision boundary according to sample difficulty, providing global guidance. Third, we redesign the uncertainty estimation module by integrating a Transformer encoder with multi-view self-attention, enabling the model to capture rich local and long-range temporal dependencies. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that U3-xi is model-agnostic and can be seamlessly applied to various speaker encoders. In particular, when applied to ECAPA-TDNN, it achieves 21.1% and 15.57% relative improvements on the VoxCeleb1 test sets in terms of EER and minDCF, respectively.

Large Language Models have revolutionized natural language processing, yet serving them efficiently in data centers remains challenging due to mixed workloads comprising latency-sensitive (LS) and best-effort (BE) jobs. Existing inference systems employ iteration-level first-come-first-served scheduling, causing head-of-line blocking when BE jobs delay LS jobs. We introduce QLLM, a novel inference system designed for Mixture of Experts (MoE) models, featuring a fine-grained, priority-aware preemptive scheduler. QLLM enables expert-level preemption, deferring BE job execution while minimizing LS time-to-first-token (TTFT). Our approach removes iteration-level scheduling constraints, enabling the scheduler to preempt jobs at any layer based on priority. Evaluations on an Nvidia A100 GPU show that QLLM significantly improves performance. It reduces LS TTFT by an average of 65.5times and meets the SLO at up to 7 requests/sec, whereas the baseline fails to do so under the tested workload. Additionally, it cuts LS turnaround time by up to 12.8times without impacting throughput. QLLM is modular, extensible, and seamlessly integrates with Hugging Face MoE models.

Gaussian processes (GP) are one of the most successful frameworks to model uncertainty. However, GP optimization (e.g., GP-UCB) suffers from major scalability issues. Experimental time grows linearly with the number of evaluations, unless candidates are selected in batches (e.g., using GP-BUCB) and evaluated in parallel. Furthermore, computational cost is often prohibitive since algorithms such as GP-BUCB require a time at least quadratic in the number of dimensions and iterations to select each batch. In this paper, we introduce BBKB (Batch Budgeted Kernel Bandits), the first no-regret GP optimization algorithm that provably runs in near-linear time and selects candidates in batches. This is obtained with a new guarantee for the tracking of the posterior variances that allows BBKB to choose increasingly larger batches, improving over GP-BUCB. Moreover, we show that the same bound can be used to adaptively delay costly updates to the sparse GP approximation used by BBKB, achieving a near-constant per-step amortized cost. These findings are then confirmed in several experiments, where BBKB is much faster than state-of-the-art methods.

Asynchronous reinforcement learning improves throughput by decoupling rollout generation from optimization, but staleness is an inevitable byproduct compounded by policy lag, engine delays, and mixture-of-experts routing. From a trust-region perspective, this mismatch is critical: training-inference divergence governs approximation error in finite-horizon bounds, whereas PPO clipping only gates sampled outward updates, acting as a sampled surrogate rather than a full-policy constraint. As a result, high-staleness updates remain weakly controlled in the asynchronous regime where stale rollouts matter most. We introduce the Staleness-Adaptive Trust Region (SAT), which uses the detached sampled log-ratio as a practical staleness proxy, identifies high-mismatch tails within each batch via staleness-based kernel scaling, and contracts only the sign-selected endpoint of the nominal PPO interval. This preserves baseline behavior on ordinary tokens while enforcing more conservative updates on newly intercepted outward bands. We prove local interval containment and pointwise pessimism relative to PPO, showing how the adaptive rule reshapes update geometry under heterogeneous staleness. We evaluate SAT in a decoupled asynchronous RL setup built on Qwen3-30B-A3B-Base, using SGLang as the inference engine and Megatron for training. In this setting, SAT-GSPO w/ R3 achieves the best observed AIME24 avg@8, reaching 35.83 at lag 1 and 34.79 at lag 8, while SAT-GSPO reaches 34.17 at lag 1. Adaptive clipping and routing replay act as complementary stabilizers targeting mismatch tails and routing inconsistency, respectively. Overall, aligning clip intervals with staleness heterogeneity effectively stabilizes asynchronous RL.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks by encoding vast amounts of factual knowledge. However, they are still prone to hallucinations, generating incorrect or misleading information, often accompanied by high uncertainty. Existing methods for hallucination detection primarily focus on quantifying internal uncertainty, which arises from missing or conflicting knowledge within the model. However, hallucinations can also stem from external uncertainty, where ambiguous user queries lead to multiple possible interpretations. In this work, we introduce Semantic Volume, a novel mathematical measure for quantifying both external and internal uncertainty in LLMs. Our approach perturbs queries and responses, embeds them in a semantic space, and computes the determinant of the Gram matrix of the embedding vectors, capturing their dispersion as a measure of uncertainty. Our framework provides a generalizable and unsupervised uncertainty detection method without requiring white-box access to LLMs. We conduct extensive experiments on both external and internal uncertainty detection, demonstrating that our Semantic Volume method consistently outperforms existing baselines in both tasks. Additionally, we provide theoretical insights linking our measure to differential entropy, unifying and extending previous sampling-based uncertainty measures such as the semantic entropy. Semantic Volume is shown to be a robust and interpretable approach to improving the reliability of LLMs by systematically detecting uncertainty in both user queries and model responses.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in natural language generation and instruction following, a persistent challenge lies in their susceptibility to "hallucinations", which erodes trust in their outputs. Although Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a promising solution, its accurate implementation within the context of LLMs remains a significant hurdle. To address this critical roadblock, our research originates from a fundamental heuristic insight: tokens within auto-regressive LLM-generated text do not equally reflect the underlying meaning. Some tokens carry greater relevance and representativeness than others, owing to the phenomenon of "linguistic redundancy", wherein a select few keywords suffice to convey the essence of lengthy sentences. Regrettably, existing methodologies treat all tokens with equal importance when estimating uncertainty, disregarding these inherent generative inequalities. Our analysis reveals a significant issue with state-of-the-art: numerous tokens (and sentences) of limited semantic significance receive equal or even excessive weighting during uncertainty estimation. To rectify this bias, we propose to jointly Shifting Attention to more Relevant (SAR) components, at both the token- and the sentence-levels for accurate uncertainty estimation. We conduct extensive experiments involving a range of popular "off-the-shelf" LLMs, including instruction-tuned LLMs such as Vicuna, WizardLM, and LLaMA-2-chat, as well as pretrained LLMs like OPT and LLaMA, with model sizes extending up to 33B parameters. We carry out evaluation across various free-form question-answering tasks, encompassing domains such as reading comprehension, science Q&A, and medical Q&A. Our experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of SAR in addressing the challenges of uncertainty estimation within the realm of LLMs.

Vision-language models (VLMs) embed aligned image-text pairs into a joint space but often rely on deterministic embeddings, assuming a one-to-one correspondence between images and texts. This oversimplifies real-world relationships, which are inherently many-to-many, with multiple captions describing a single image and vice versa. We introduce Probabilistic Language-Image Pre-training (ProLIP), the first probabilistic VLM pre-trained on a billion-scale image-text dataset using only probabilistic objectives, achieving a strong zero-shot capability (e.g., 74.6% ImageNet zero-shot accuracy with ViT-B/16). ProLIP efficiently estimates uncertainty by an "uncertainty token" without extra parameters. We also introduce a novel inclusion loss that enforces distributional inclusion relationships between image-text pairs and between original and masked inputs. Experiments demonstrate that, by leveraging uncertainty estimates, ProLIP benefits downstream tasks and aligns with intuitive notions of uncertainty, e.g., shorter texts being more uncertain and more general inputs including specific ones. Utilizing text uncertainties, we further improve ImageNet accuracy from 74.6% to 75.8% (under a few-shot setting), supporting the practical advantages of our probabilistic approach. The code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/prolip

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across many applications, with Mixture of Experts (MoE) models demonstrating great potential. Compared to traditional dense models, MoEs achieve better performance with less computation. Speculative decoding (SD) is a widely used technique to accelerate LLM inference without accuracy loss, but it has been considered efficient only for dense models. In this work, we first demonstrate that, under medium batch sizes, MoE surprisingly benefits more from SD than dense models. Furthermore, as MoE becomes sparser -- the prevailing trend in MoE designs -- the batch size range where SD acceleration is expected to be effective becomes broader. To quantitatively understand tradeoffs involved in SD, we develop a reliable modeling based on theoretical analyses. While current SD research primarily focuses on improving acceptance rates of algorithms, changes in workload and model architecture can still lead to degraded SD acceleration even with high acceptance rates. To address this limitation, we introduce a new metric 'target efficiency' that characterizes these effects, thus helping researchers identify system bottlenecks and understand SD acceleration more comprehensively. For scenarios like private serving, this work unveils a new perspective to speed up MoE inference, where existing solutions struggle. Experiments on different GPUs show up to 2.29x speedup for Qwen2-57B-A14B at medium batch sizes and validate our theoretical predictions.

Modern Large Language Models achieve impressive reasoning capabilities with long Chain of Thoughts, but they incur substantial computational cost during inference, and this motivates techniques to improve the performance-cost ratio. Among these techniques, Speculative Decoding accelerates inference by employing a fast but inaccurate draft model to autoregressively propose tokens, which are then verified in parallel by a more capable target model. However, due to unnecessary rejections caused by token mismatches in semantically equivalent steps, traditional token-level Speculative Decoding struggles in reasoning tasks. Although recent works have shifted to step-level semantic verification, which improve efficiency by accepting or rejecting entire reasoning steps, existing step-level methods still regenerate many rejected steps with little improvement, wasting valuable target compute. To address this challenge, we propose Arbitrage, a novel step-level speculative generation framework that routes generation dynamically based on the relative advantage between draft and target models. Instead of applying a fixed acceptance threshold, Arbitrage uses a lightweight router trained to predict when the target model is likely to produce a meaningfully better step. This routing approximates an ideal Arbitrage Oracle that always chooses the higher-quality step, achieving near-optimal efficiency-accuracy trade-offs. Across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks, Arbitrage consistently surpasses prior step-level Speculative Decoding baselines, reducing inference latency by up to sim2times at matched accuracy.

Speculative decoding (SD) is a widely used approach for accelerating decode-heavy LLM inference workloads. While online inference workloads are highly dynamic, existing SD systems are rigid and take a coarse-grained approach to SD management. They typically set the speculative token length for an entire batch and serialize the execution of the draft and verification phases. Consequently, these systems fall short at adapting to volatile online inference traffic. Under low load, they exhibit prolonged latency because the draft phase blocks the verification phase for the entire batch, leaving GPU computing resources underutilized. Conversely, under high load, they waste computation on rejected tokens during the verification phase, overloading GPU resources. We introduce FASER, a novel system that features fine-grained SD phase management. First, FASER minimizes computational waste by dynamically adjusting the speculative length for each request within a continuous batch and by performing early pruning of rejected tokens inside the verification phase. Second, FASER breaks the verification phase into frontiers, or chunks, to overlap them with the draft phase. This overlap is achieved via fine-grained spatial multiplexing with minimal resource interference. Our FASER prototype in vLLM improves throughput by up to 53% and reduces latency by up to 1.92times compared to state-of-the-art systems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally expensive or lack calibration. We propose a three-stage pipeline to post-train LLMs to efficiently infer calibrated uncertainty estimates for their responses. First, we compute fine-grained entropy-based uncertainty scores on the training data, capturing the distributional variability of model outputs in embedding space. Second, these scores are calibrated via Platt scaling, producing reliable and human-interpretable uncertainty signals. Finally, the target LLM is post-trained via reinforcement learning to align its policy with these calibrated signals through a verifiable reward function. Unlike post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods, our approach provides interpretable and computationally efficient uncertainty estimates at test time. Experiments show that models trained with our pipeline achieve better calibration than baselines and generalize to unseen tasks without further processing, suggesting that they learn a robust uncertainty reasoning behavior.

Long video understanding has emerged as an increasingly important yet challenging task in computer vision. Agent-based approaches are gaining popularity for processing long videos, as they can handle extended sequences and integrate various tools to capture fine-grained information. However, existing methods still face several challenges: (1) they often rely solely on the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) without dedicated mechanisms to enhance reasoning in long video scenarios; and (2) they remain vulnerable to errors or noise from external tools. To address these issues, we propose a specialized chain-of-thought (CoT) process tailored for long video analysis. Our proposed CoT with plan-adjust mode enables the LLM to incrementally plan and adapt its information-gathering strategy. We further incorporate heuristic uncertainty estimation of both the LLM and external tools to guide the CoT process. This allows the LLM to assess the reliability of newly collected information, refine its collection strategy, and make more robust decisions when synthesizing final answers. Empirical experiments show that our uncertainty-aware CoT effectively mitigates noise from external tools, leading to more reliable outputs. We implement our approach in a system called VideoAgent2, which also includes additional modules such as general context acquisition and specialized tool design. Evaluation on three dedicated long video benchmarks (and their subsets) demonstrates that VideoAgent2 outperforms the previous state-of-the-art agent-based method, VideoAgent, by an average of 13.1% and achieves leading performance among all zero-shot approaches

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities, but their broad deployment is limited by significant computational resource demands, particularly energy consumption during inference. Static, one-model-fits-all inference strategies are often inefficient, as they do not exploit the diverse range of available models or adapt to varying query requirements. This paper presents GreenServ, a dynamic, context-aware routing framework that optimizes the trade-off between inference accuracy and energy efficiency. GreenServ extracts lightweight contextual features from each query, including task type, semantic cluster, and text complexity, and routes queries to the most suitable model from a heterogeneous pool, based on observed accuracy and energy usage. We employ a multi-armed bandit approach to learn adaptive routing policies online. This approach operates under partial feedback, eliminates the need for extensive offline calibration, and streamlines the integration of new models into the inference pipeline. We evaluated GreenServ across five benchmark tasks and a pool of 16 contemporary open-access LLMs. Experimental results show that GreenServ consistently outperforms static (single-model) and random baselines. In particular, compared to random routing, GreenServ achieved a 22% increase in accuracy while reducing cumulative energy consumption by 31%. Finally, we evaluated GreenServ with RouterBench, achieving an average accuracy of 71.7% with a peak accuracy of 75.7%. All artifacts are open-source and available here: https://github.com/TZData1/llm-inference-router{GitHub}

Offline batch inference, which leverages the flexibility of request batching to achieve higher throughput and lower costs, is becoming more popular for latency-insensitive applications. Meanwhile, recent progress in model capability and modality makes requests more diverse in compute and memory demands, creating unique opportunities for throughput improvement by resource overlapping. However, a request schedule that maximizes resource overlapping can conflict with the schedule that maximizes prefix sharing, a widely-used performance optimization, causing sub-optimal inference throughput. We present BlendServe, a system that maximizes resource utilization of offline batch inference by combining the benefits of resource overlapping and prefix sharing using a resource-aware prefix tree. BlendServe exploits the relaxed latency requirements in offline batch inference to reorder and overlap requests with varied resource demands while ensuring high prefix sharing. We evaluate BlendServe on a variety of synthetic multi-modal workloads and show that it provides up to 1.44times throughput boost compared to widely-used industry standards, vLLM and SGLang.

Although large language models (LLMs) are capable of performing various tasks, they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict whether a response is correct or not. However, most uncertainty quantification methods have been evaluated on questions requiring a single clear answer, ignoring the existence of data uncertainty that arises from irreducible randomness. Instead, these methods only consider model uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge. In this paper, we investigate previous uncertainty quantification methods under the presence of data uncertainty. Our contributions are two-fold: 1) proposing a new Multi-Answer Question Answering dataset, MAQA, consisting of world knowledge, mathematical reasoning, and commonsense reasoning tasks to evaluate uncertainty quantification regarding data uncertainty, and 2) assessing 5 uncertainty quantification methods of diverse white- and black-box LLMs. Our findings show that entropy and consistency-based methods estimate the model uncertainty well even under data uncertainty, while other methods for white- and black-box LLMs struggle depending on the tasks. Additionally, methods designed for white-box LLMs suffer from overconfidence in reasoning tasks compared to simple knowledge queries. We believe our observations will pave the way for future work on uncertainty quantification in realistic setting.

Diffusion models have impressive image generation capability, but low-quality generations still exist, and their identification remains challenging due to the lack of a proper sample-wise metric. To address this, we propose BayesDiff, a pixel-wise uncertainty estimator for generations from diffusion models based on Bayesian inference. In particular, we derive a novel uncertainty iteration principle to characterize the uncertainty dynamics in diffusion, and leverage the last-layer Laplace approximation for efficient Bayesian inference. The estimated pixel-wise uncertainty can not only be aggregated into a sample-wise metric to filter out low-fidelity images but also aids in augmenting successful generations and rectifying artifacts in failed generations in text-to-image tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of BayesDiff and its promise for practical applications.

Most frame-based learned video codecs can be interpreted as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) propagating reference information along the temporal dimension. This work revisits the limitations of the current approaches from an RNN perspective. The output-recurrence methods, which propagate decoded frames, are intuitive but impose dual constraints on the output decoded frames, leading to suboptimal rate-distortion performance. In contrast, the hidden-to-hidden connection approaches, which propagate latent features within the RNN, offer greater flexibility but require large buffer sizes. To address these issues, we propose HyTIP, a learned video coding framework that combines both mechanisms. Our hybrid buffering strategy uses explicit decoded frames and a small number of implicit latent features to achieve competitive coding performance. Experimental results show that our HyTIP outperforms the sole use of either output-recurrence or hidden-to-hidden approaches. Furthermore, it achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods but with a much smaller buffer size, and outperforms VTM 17.0 (Low-delay B) in terms of PSNR-RGB and MS-SSIM-RGB. The source code of HyTIP is available at https://github.com/NYCU-MAPL/HyTIP.

Reliable Large Language Models (LLMs) should abstain when confidence is insufficient. However, prior studies often treat refusal as a generic "I don't know'', failing to distinguish input-level ambiguity (data uncertainty) from capability limitations (model uncertainty). This lack of distinction limits downstream action decisions like requesting clarification or invoking external tools. In this work, we introduce UA-Bench, a benchmark of over 3,500 questions drawn from six datasets spanning knowledge-intensive and reasoning-intensive tasks, designed to evaluate explicit uncertainty attribution. An evaluation of 18 frontier LLMs shows that even state-of-the-art models struggle to reliably discriminate between data uncertainty and model uncertainty, and that high answer accuracy does not necessarily imply strong uncertainty attribution ability. To narrow this gap, we propose a lightweight data synthesis and reinforcement learning strategy. Experiments on both Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507 and Qwen3-8B in thinking mode show that the proposed method improves uncertainty attribution while preserving answer accuracy. Our code and data are publicly available now.

Hallucination in large language models (LLMs) can be detected by assessing the uncertainty of model outputs, typically measured using entropy. Semantic entropy (SE) enhances traditional entropy estimation by quantifying uncertainty at the semantic cluster level. However, as modern LLMs generate longer one-sentence responses, SE becomes less effective because it overlooks two crucial factors: intra-cluster similarity (the spread within a cluster) and inter-cluster similarity (the distance between clusters). To address these limitations, we propose a simple black-box uncertainty quantification method inspired by nearest neighbor estimates of entropy. Our approach can also be easily extended to white-box settings by incorporating token probabilities. Additionally, we provide theoretical results showing that our method generalizes semantic entropy. Extensive empirical results demonstrate its effectiveness compared to semantic entropy across two recent LLMs (Phi3 and Llama3) and three common text generation tasks: question answering, text summarization, and machine translation. Our code is available at https://github.com/BigML-CS-UCLA/SNNE.

Many-Shot In-Context Learning (ICL) has emerged as a promising paradigm, leveraging extensive examples to unlock the reasoning potential of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing methods typically rely on a predetermined, fixed number of shots. This static approach often fails to adapt to the varying difficulty of different queries, leading to either insufficient context or interference from noise. Furthermore, the prohibitive computational and memory costs of long contexts severely limit Many-Shot's feasibility. To address the above limitations, we propose AdapShot, which dynamically optimizes shot counts and leverages KV cache reuse for efficient inference. Specifically, we design a probe-based evaluation mechanism that utilizes output entropy to determine the optimal number of shots. To bypass the redundant prefilling computation during both the probing and inference phases, we incorporate a semantics-aware KV cache reuse strategy. Within this reuse strategy, to address positional encoding incompatibilities, we introduce a decoupling and re-encoding method that enables the flexible reordering of cached key-value pairs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AdapShot achieves an average performance gain of around 10% and a 4.64x speedup compared to state-of-the-art DBSA.

Quantifying uncertainty in black-box LLMs is vital for reliable responses and scalable oversight. Existing methods, which gauge a model's uncertainty through evaluating self-consistency in responses to the target query, can be misleading: an LLM may confidently provide an incorrect answer to a target query, yet give a confident and accurate answer to that same target query when answering a knowledge-preserving perturbation of the query. We systematically analyze the model behaviors and demonstrate that this discrepancy stems from suboptimal retrieval of parametric knowledge, often due to contextual biases that prevent consistent access to stored knowledge. We then introduce DiverseAgentEntropy, a novel, theoretically-grounded method employing multi-agent interaction across diverse query variations for uncertainty estimation of black-box LLMs. This approach more accurately assesses an LLM's true uncertainty and improves hallucination detection, outperforming existing self-consistency based techniques.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities in document re-ranking, a key component in modern Information Retrieval (IR) systems. However, existing LLM-based approaches face notable limitations, including ranking uncertainty, unstable top-k recovery, and high token cost due to token-intensive prompting. To effectively address these limitations, we propose REALM, an uncertainty-aware re-ranking framework that models LLM-derived relevance as Gaussian distributions and refines them through recursive Bayesian updates. By explicitly capturing uncertainty and minimizing redundant queries, REALM achieves better rankings more efficiently. Experimental results demonstrate that our REALM surpasses state-of-the-art re-rankers while significantly reducing token usage and latency, improving NDCG@10 by 0.7-11.9 and simultaneously reducing the number of LLM inferences by 23.4-84.4%, promoting it as the next-generation re-ranker for modern IR systems.

When considering a model architecture, there are several ways to reduce its memory footprint. Historically, popular approaches included selecting smaller architectures and creating sparse networks through pruning. More recently, randomized parameter-sharing (RPS) methods have gained traction for model compression at start of training. In this paper, we comprehensively assess the trade-off between memory and accuracy across RPS, pruning techniques, and building smaller models. Our findings demonstrate that RPS, which is both data and model-agnostic, consistently outperforms/matches smaller models and all moderately informed pruning strategies, such as MAG, SNIP, SYNFLOW, and GRASP, across the entire compression range. This advantage becomes particularly pronounced in higher compression scenarios. Notably, even when compared to highly informed pruning techniques like Lottery Ticket Rewinding (LTR), RPS exhibits superior performance in high compression settings. This points out inherent capacity advantage that RPS enjoys over sparse models. Theoretically, we establish RPS as a superior technique in terms of memory-efficient representation when compared to pruning for linear models. This paper argues in favor of paradigm shift towards RPS based models. During our rigorous evaluation of RPS, we identified issues in the state-of-the-art RPS technique ROAST, specifically regarding stability (ROAST's sensitivity to initialization hyperparameters, often leading to divergence) and Pareto-continuity (ROAST's inability to recover the accuracy of the original model at zero compression). We provably address both of these issues. We refer to the modified RPS, which incorporates our improvements, as STABLE-RPS.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

Large language models (LLMs) serve as giant information stores, often including personal or copyrighted data, and retraining them from scratch is not a viable option. This has led to the development of various fast, approximate unlearning techniques to selectively remove knowledge from LLMs. Prior research has largely focused on minimizing the probabilities of specific token sequences by reversing the language modeling objective. However, these methods still leave LLMs vulnerable to adversarial attacks that exploit indirect references. In this work, we examine the limitations of current unlearning techniques in effectively erasing a particular type of indirect prompt: multi-hop queries. Our findings reveal that existing methods fail to completely remove multi-hop knowledge when one of the intermediate hops is unlearned. To address this issue, we propose MUNCH, a simple uncertainty-based approach that breaks down multi-hop queries into subquestions and leverages the uncertainty of the unlearned model in final decision-making. Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework, and MUNCH can be easily integrated with existing unlearning techniques, making it a flexible and useful solution for enhancing unlearning processes.

Existing Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) models excel in accuracy but often overlook open-world challenges posed by open-vocabulary queries and untrimmed videos. This leads to unreliable predictions for noisy, corrupted, and out-of-distribution data. Adapting VTG models to dynamically estimate uncertainties based on user input can address this issue. To this end, we introduce SRAM, a robust network module that benefits from a two-stage cross-modal alignment task. More importantly, it integrates Deep Evidential Regression (DER) to explicitly and thoroughly quantify uncertainty during training, thus allowing the model to say "I do not know" in scenarios beyond its handling capacity. However, the direct application of traditional DER theory and its regularizer reveals structural flaws, leading to unintended constraints in VTG tasks. In response, we develop a simple yet effective Geom-regularizer that enhances the uncertainty learning framework from the ground up. To the best of our knowledge, this marks the first successful attempt of DER in VTG. Our extensive quantitative and qualitative results affirm the effectiveness, robustness, and interpretability of our modules and the uncertainty learning paradigm in VTG tasks. The code will be made available.

MoE (Mixture of Experts) prevails as a neural architecture that can scale modern transformer-based LLMs (Large Language Models) to unprecedented scales. Nevertheless, large MoEs' great demands of computing power, memory capacity and memory bandwidth make scalable serving a fundamental challenge and efficient parallel inference has become a requisite to attain adequate throughput under latency constraints. DeepSpeed-MoE, one state-of-the-art MoE inference framework, adopts a 3D-parallel paradigm including EP (Expert Parallelism), TP (Tensor Parallel) and DP (Data Parallelism). However, our analysis shows DeepSpeed-MoE's inference efficiency is largely bottlenecked by EP, which is implemented with costly all-to-all collectives to route token activation. Our work aims to boost DeepSpeed-MoE by strategically reducing EP's communication overhead with a technique named Speculative MoE. Speculative MoE has two speculative parallelization schemes, speculative token shuffling and speculative expert grouping, which predict outstanding tokens' expert routing paths and pre-schedule tokens and experts across devices to losslessly trim EP's communication volume. Besides DeepSpeed-MoE, we also build Speculative MoE into a prevailing MoE inference engine SGLang. Experiments show Speculative MoE can significantly boost state-of-the-art MoE inference frameworks on fast homogeneous and slow heterogeneous interconnects.

Large Language models (LLMs) have become a research hotspot. To accelerate the inference of LLMs, storing computed caches in memory has become the standard technique. However, as the inference length increases, growing KV caches might lead to out-of-memory issues. Many existing methods address this issue through KV cache compression, primarily by preserving key tokens throughout all layers to reduce information loss. Most of them allocate a uniform budget size for each layer to retain. However, we observe that the minimum budget sizes needed to retain essential information vary across layers and models based on the perspectives of attention and hidden state output. Building on this observation, this paper proposes a simple yet effective KV cache compression method that leverages layer uncertainty to allocate budget size for each layer. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reduce memory usage of the KV caches to only sim20\% when compared to Full KV inference while achieving nearly lossless performance.

Speculative decoding accelerates Large Language Model (LLM) inference by verifying multiple drafted tokens in parallel. However, for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, this parallelism introduces a severe bottleneck: large draft trees activate many unique experts, significantly increasing memory pressure and diminishing speedups from speculative decoding relative to autoregressive decoding. Prior methods reduce speculation depth when MoE verification becomes expensive. We propose MoE-Spec, a training-free verification-time expert budgeting method that decouples speculation depth from memory cost by enforcing a fixed expert capacity limit at each layer, loading only the experts that contribute most to verification and dropping the long tail of rarely used experts that drive bandwidth overhead. Experiments across multiple model scales and datasets show that this method yields 10--30\% higher throughput than state-of-the-art speculative decoding baselines (EAGLE-3) at comparable quality, with flexibility to trade accuracy for further latency reductions through tighter budgets.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Since current LLMs generate text autoregressively through a stochastic process, the same prompt can lead to varying outputs. Consequently, leading uncertainty estimation methods generate and analyze multiple output sequences to determine the LLM's uncertainty. However, generating output sequences is computationally expensive, making these methods impractical at scale. In this work, we inspect the theoretical foundations of the leading methods and explore new directions to enhance their computational efficiency. Building on the framework of proper scoring rules, we find that the negative log-likelihood of the most likely output sequence constitutes a theoretically grounded uncertainty measure. To approximate this alternative measure, we propose G-NLL, which has the advantage of being obtained using only a single output sequence generated by greedy decoding. This makes uncertainty estimation more efficient and straightforward, while preserving theoretical rigor. Empirical results demonstrate that G-NLL achieves state-of-the-art performance across various LLMs and tasks. Our work lays the foundation for efficient and reliable uncertainty estimation in natural language generation, challenging the necessity of more computationally involved methods currently leading the field.

Diffusion models achieve great success in generating diverse and high-fidelity images. The performance improvements come with low generation speed per image, which hinders the application diffusion models in real-time scenarios. While some certain predictions benefit from the full computation of the model in each sample iteration, not every iteration requires the same amount of computation, potentially leading to computation waste. In this work, we propose DeeDiff, an early exiting framework that adaptively allocates computation resources in each sampling step to improve the generation efficiency of diffusion models. Specifically, we introduce a timestep-aware uncertainty estimation module (UEM) for diffusion models which is attached to each intermediate layer to estimate the prediction uncertainty of each layer. The uncertainty is regarded as the signal to decide if the inference terminates. Moreover, we propose uncertainty-aware layer-wise loss to fill the performance gap between full models and early-exited models. With such loss strategy, our model is able to obtain comparable results as full-layer models. Extensive experiments of class-conditional, unconditional, and text-guided generation on several datasets show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance and efficiency trade-off compared with existing early exiting methods on diffusion models. More importantly, our method even brings extra benefits to baseline models and obtains better performance on CIFAR-10 and Celeb-A datasets. Full code and model are released for reproduction.

Despite their remarkable success in complex tasks propelling widespread adoption, large language-model-based agents still face critical deployment challenges due to prohibitive latency and inference costs. While recent work has explored various methods to accelerate inference, existing approaches suffer from significant limitations: they either fail to preserve performance fidelity, require extensive offline training of router modules, or incur excessive operational costs. Moreover, they provide minimal user control over the tradeoff between acceleration and other performance metrics. To address these gaps, we introduce Dynamic Speculative Planning (DSP), an asynchronous online reinforcement learning framework that provides lossless acceleration with substantially reduced costs without requiring additional pre-deployment preparation. DSP explicitly optimizes a joint objective balancing end-to-end latency against dollar cost, allowing practitioners to adjust a single parameter that steers the system toward faster responses, cheaper operation, or any point along this continuum. Experiments on two standard agent benchmarks demonstrate that DSP achieves comparable efficiency to the fastest lossless acceleration method while reducing total cost by 30% and unnecessary cost up to 60%. Our code and data are available through https://github.com/guanyilin428/Dynamic-Speculative-Planning.

Large language models (LLMs) propel the prosperity of interactive AI applications showcased by ChatGPT that demand timely response of inference services. However, LLM inference is computation intensive and memory intensive, and improper parameter configuration at LLM platforms may exacerbate the inference time. In this paper, we analyze the impact of LLM output token distribution on the inference queueing delay, where the max-token clipping and the batched inference are considered. By formulating an M/G/1 model, we observe that enforcing a maximum output token limit on a very small fraction of inference requests can significantly reduce the queueing delay, and our model facilitates the selection of the optimal limit. For the batch inference, we model the service process as a bulk queue in which the batch processing time is affected by the batch size and the maximum token size inside this batch jointly. The queueing delays of the batching of all buffered requests (dynamic batching), the batching of constant number of requests (fixed batching), and the batching without intra-batch waiting (elastic batching) are derived. Experimental results show that our mathematical models coincide with the event-driven simulations well.

We propose TETRIS, a novel method that optimizes the total throughput of batch speculative decoding in multi-request settings. Unlike existing methods that optimize for a single request or a group of requests as a whole, TETRIS actively selects the most promising draft tokens (for every request in a batch) to be accepted when verified in parallel, resulting in fewer rejected tokens and hence less wasted computing resources. Such an effective resource utilization to achieve fast inference in large language models (LLMs) is especially important to service providers with limited inference capacity. Compared to baseline speculative decoding, TETRIS yields a consistently higher acceptance rate and more effective utilization of the limited inference capacity. We show theoretically and empirically that TETRIS outperforms baseline speculative decoding and existing methods that dynamically select draft tokens, leading to a more efficient batch inference in LLMs.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are predominantly evaluated by comparing their relative performance on a large suite of tasks. Most published results on deep RL benchmarks compare point estimates of aggregate performance such as mean and median scores across tasks, ignoring the statistical uncertainty implied by the use of a finite number of training runs. Beginning with the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), the shift towards computationally-demanding benchmarks has led to the practice of evaluating only a small number of runs per task, exacerbating the statistical uncertainty in point estimates. In this paper, we argue that reliable evaluation in the few run deep RL regime cannot ignore the uncertainty in results without running the risk of slowing down progress in the field. We illustrate this point using a case study on the Atari 100k benchmark, where we find substantial discrepancies between conclusions drawn from point estimates alone versus a more thorough statistical analysis. With the aim of increasing the field's confidence in reported results with a handful of runs, we advocate for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and propose performance profiles to account for the variability in results, as well as present more robust and efficient aggregate metrics, such as interquartile mean scores, to achieve small uncertainty in results. Using such statistical tools, we scrutinize performance evaluations of existing algorithms on other widely used RL benchmarks including the ALE, Procgen, and the DeepMind Control Suite, again revealing discrepancies in prior comparisons. Our findings call for a change in how we evaluate performance in deep RL, for which we present a more rigorous evaluation methodology, accompanied with an open-source library rliable, to prevent unreliable results from stagnating the field.

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained away given enough data. Traditionally it has been difficult to model epistemic uncertainty in computer vision, but with new Bayesian deep learning tools this is now possible. We study the benefits of modeling epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian deep learning models for vision tasks. For this we present a Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty. We study models under the framework with per-pixel semantic segmentation and depth regression tasks. Further, our explicit uncertainty formulation leads to new loss functions for these tasks, which can be interpreted as learned attenuation. This makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks.

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

We present UncertaintyRAG, a novel approach for long-context Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) that utilizes Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)-based span uncertainty to estimate similarity between text chunks. This span uncertainty enhances model calibration, improving robustness and mitigating semantic inconsistencies introduced by random chunking. Leveraging this insight, we propose an efficient unsupervised learning technique to train the retrieval model, alongside an effective data sampling and scaling strategy. UncertaintyRAG outperforms baselines by 2.03% on LLaMA-2-7B, achieving state-of-the-art results while using only 4% of the training data compared to other advanced open-source retrieval models under distribution shift settings. Our method demonstrates strong calibration through span uncertainty, leading to improved generalization and robustness in long-context RAG tasks. Additionally, UncertaintyRAG provides a lightweight retrieval model that can be integrated into any large language model with varying context window lengths, without the need for fine-tuning, showcasing the flexibility of our approach.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has demonstrated promising potential in scaling LLMs. However, it is hindered by two critical challenges: (1) substantial GPU memory consumption to load all experts; (2) low activated parameters cannot be equivalently translated into inference acceleration effects. In this work, we propose EAC-MoE, an Expert-Selection Aware Compressor for MoE-LLMs, which deeply aligns with the characteristics of MoE from the perspectives of quantization and pruning, and introduces two modules to address these two challenges respectively: (1) The expert selection bias caused by low-bit quantization is a major factor contributing to the performance degradation in MoE-LLMs. Based on this, we propose Quantization with Expert-Selection Calibration (QESC), which mitigates the expert selection bias by calibrating the routers within the MoE; (2) There are always certain experts that are not crucial for the corresponding tasks, yet causing inference latency. Therefore, we propose Pruning based on Expert-Selection Frequency (PESF), which significantly improves inference speed by pruning less frequently used experts for current task. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces memory usage and improves inference speed with minimal performance degradation.

Hallucinations in Large Language Model (LLM) outputs for Question Answering (QA) tasks can critically undermine their real-world reliability. This paper introduces a methodology for robust, one-shot hallucination detection, specifically designed for scenarios with limited data access, such as interacting with black-box LLM APIs that typically expose only a few top candidate log-probabilities per token. Our approach derives uncertainty indicators directly from these readily available log-probabilities generated during non-greedy decoding. We first derive an Entropy Production Rate (EPR) that offers baseline performance, later augmented with supervised learning. Our learned model leverages the entropic contributions of the accessible top-ranked tokens within a single generated sequence, without multiple re-runs per query. Evaluated across diverse QA datasets and multiple LLMs, this estimator significantly improves token-level hallucination detection over state-of-the-art methods. Crucially, high performance is demonstrated using only the typically small set of available log-probabilities (e.g., top-10 per token), confirming its practical efficiency and suitability for API-constrained deployments. This work provides a lightweight technique to enhance the trustworthiness of LLM responses, at the token level, after a single generation pass, for QA and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Our experiments confirmed the performance of our method against existing approaches on public dataset as well as for a financial framework analyzing annual company reports.

Recent position papers argue that the classical aleatoric/epistemic uncertainty framework is insufficient for interactive large language model (LLM) agents and call for underspecification-aware, decomposed, and communicable uncertainty representations that can unlock new agent capabilities such as proactive clarification seeking and shared mental-model building. Practical deployment constraints -- black-box APIs, interactive latency budgets, and the absence of labeled trajectories -- rule out logprob-based, multi-sampling, and training-based methods, leaving prompt-based estimation as the most viable family for surfacing such signals at deployment time. We answer this call with a simple prompt-based decomposition that separates action confidence from request uncertainty (u), enabling the agent to ask for clarification when the task specification is ambiguous. To evaluate it, we introduce two clarification-augmented benchmarks (WebShop-Clarification and ALFWorld-Clarification) in which 50% of tasks are deliberately underspecified, and systematically compare the proposed decomposition against ReAct+UE and Uncertainty-Aware Memory (UAM) across five LLM backbones (GPT-5.1, DeepSeek-v3.2-exp, GLM-4.7, Qwen3.5-35B, GPT-OSS-120B) on these variants together with the standard WebShop, ALFWorld, and REAL benchmarks for fault detection. Averaged across the five backbones, the proposed decomposition improves clarification F1 on ALFWorld-Clarification by 73% over ReAct+UE and by 36% over UAM, and leads clarification F1 on every backbone on WebShop-Clarification and on four of five backbones on ALFWorld-Clarification, indicating that the gains generalize beyond a single LLM.

We introduce Reward-Guided Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel framework aimed at improving the efficiency of inference in large language models (LLMs). RSD synergistically combines a lightweight draft model with a more powerful target model, incorporating a controlled bias to prioritize high-reward outputs, in contrast to existing speculative decoding methods that enforce strict unbiasedness. RSD employs a process reward model to evaluate intermediate decoding steps and dynamically decide whether to invoke the target model, optimizing the trade-off between computational cost and output quality. We theoretically demonstrate that a threshold-based mixture strategy achieves an optimal balance between resource utilization and performance. Extensive evaluations on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including Olympiad-level tasks, show that RSD delivers significant efficiency gains against decoding with the target model only (up to 4.4x fewer FLOPs), while achieving significant better accuracy than parallel decoding method on average (up to +3.5). These results highlight RSD as a robust and cost-effective approach for deploying LLMs in resource-intensive scenarios.

As supervised fine-tuning (SFT) evolves from a lightweight post-training step into a compute-intensive phase rivaling mid-training in scale, data efficiency has become critical for aligning large language models (LLMs) under tight budgets. Existing data pruning methods suffer from a fragmented design: they operate either at the sample level or the token level in isolation, failing to jointly optimize both dimensions. This disconnect leads to significant inefficiencies--high-value samples may still contain redundant tokens, while token-level pruning often discards crucial instructional or corrective signals embedded in individual examples. To address this bottleneck, we introduce the Error-Uncertainty (EU) Plane, a diagnostic framework that jointly characterizes the heterogeneous utility of training data across samples and tokens. Guided by this insight, we propose Quadrant-based Tuning (Q-Tuning), a unified framework that strategically coordinates sample pruning and token pruning. Q-Tuning employs a two-stage strategy: first, it performs sample-level triage to retain examples rich in informative misconceptions or calibration signals; second, it applies an asymmetric token-pruning policy, using a context-aware scoring mechanism to trim less salient tokens exclusively from misconception samples while preserving calibration samples in their entirety. Our method sets a new state of the art across five diverse benchmarks. Remarkably, on SmolLM2-1.7B, Q-Tuning achieves a +38\% average improvement over the full-data SFT baseline using only 12.5\% of the original training data. As the first dynamic pruning approach to consistently outperform full-data training, Q-Tuning provides a practical and scalable blueprint for maximizing data utilization in budget-constrained LLM SFT.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation equips large language models with the capability to retrieve external knowledge, thereby mitigating hallucinations by incorporating information beyond the model's intrinsic abilities. However, most prior works have focused on invoking retrieval deterministically, which makes it unsuitable for tasks such as long-form question answering. Instead, dynamically performing retrieval by invoking it only when the underlying LLM lacks the required knowledge can be more efficient. In this context, we delve deeper into the question, "To Retrieve or Not to Retrieve?" by exploring multiple uncertainty detection methods. We evaluate these methods for the task of long-form question answering, employing dynamic retrieval, and present our comparisons. Our findings suggest that uncertainty detection metrics, such as Degree Matrix Jaccard and Eccentricity, can reduce the number of retrieval calls by almost half, with only a slight reduction in question-answering accuracy.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for enhancing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes applications. Existing methods often overlook semantic dependencies, relying on token-level probability measures that fail to capture structural relationships within the generated text. We propose GENUINE: Graph ENhanced mUlti-level uncertaINty Estimation for Large Language Models, a structure-aware framework that leverages dependency parse trees and hierarchical graph pooling to refine uncertainty quantification. By incorporating supervised learning, GENUINE effectively models semantic and structural relationships, improving confidence assessments. Extensive experiments across NLP tasks show that GENUINE achieves up to 29% higher AUROC than semantic entropy-based approaches and reduces calibration errors by over 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of graph-based uncertainty modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/ODYSSEYWT/GUQ.

Speculative decoding is a prominent technique to speed up the inference of a large target language model based on predictions of an auxiliary draft model. While effective, in application-specific settings, it often involves fine-tuning both draft and target models to achieve high acceptance rates. As the number of downstream tasks grows, these draft models add significant complexity to inference systems. We propose Speculative Streaming, a single-model speculative decoding method that fuses drafting into the target model by changing the fine-tuning objective from next token prediction to future n-gram prediction. Speculative Streaming speeds up decoding by 1.8 - 3.1X in a diverse set of tasks, such as Summarization, Structured Queries, and Meaning Representation, without sacrificing generation quality. Additionally, Speculative Streaming is parameter-efficient. It achieves on-par/higher speed-ups than Medusa-style architectures while using ~10000X fewer extra parameters, making it well-suited for resource-constrained devices.

We propose a stronger formulation of RL on top of RWKV-style recurrent sequence models, in which the fixed-size recurrent state is explicitly interpreted as a belief state rather than an opaque hidden vector. Instead of conditioning policy and value on a single summary h_t, we maintain a compact uncertainty-aware state b_t = (μ_t, Σ_t) derived from RWKV-style recurrent statistics and let control depend on both memory and uncertainty. This design targets a key weakness of plain fixed-state policies in partially observed settings: they may store evidence, but not necessarily confidence. We present the method, a theoretical program, and a pilot RL experiment with hidden episode-level observation noise together with a test-time noise sweep. The pilot shows that belief-state policies nearly match the best recurrent baseline overall while slightly improving return on the hardest in-distribution regime and under a held-out noise shift. Additional ablations show that this simple belief readout is currently stronger than two more structured extensions, namely gated memory control and privileged belief targets, underscoring the need for richer benchmarks.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important technique for ensuring the trustworthiness of LLMs, given their tendency to hallucinate. Existing state-of-the-art UQ approaches for free-form generation rely heavily on sampling, which incurs high computational cost and variance. In this work, we propose the first gradient-based UQ method for free-form generation, SemGrad, which is sampling-free and computationally efficient. Unlike prior gradient-based methods developed for classification tasks that operates in parameter space, we propose to consider gradients in semantic space. Our method builds on the key intuition that a confident LLM should maintain stable output distributions under semantically equivalent input perturbations. We interpret the stability as the gradients in semantic space and introduce a Semantic Preservation Score (SPS) to identify embeddings that best capture semantics, with respect to which gradients are computed. We further propose HybridGrad, which combines the strengths of SemGrad and parameter gradients. Experiments demonstrate that both of our methods provide efficient and effective uncertainty estimates, achieving superior performance than state-of-the-art methods, particularly in settings with multiple valid responses.

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as OpenAI-o1 and DeepSeek-R1, have demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities. To further enhance LLM capabilities, recent agentic systems, such as Deep Research, incorporate web interactions into LLM reasoning to mitigate uncertainties and reduce potential errors. However, existing research predominantly focuses on reasoning performance, often neglecting the efficiency of agentic systems. In this work, we present a comprehensive empirical study that identifies efficiency bottlenecks in web-interactive agentic systems. We decompose end-to-end latency into two primary components: LLM API latency and web environment latency. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study across 15 models and 5 providers to demonstrate high variability in API-based agentic systems. We observe that web environment latency can contribute as much as 53.7% to the overall latency in a web-based agentic system. To improve latency, we propose SpecCache, a caching framework augmented with speculative execution that can reduce web environment overhead. Extensive evaluations on two standard benchmarks show that our approach improves the cache hit rate by up to 58x compared to a random caching strategy, while reducing web environment overhead by up to 3.2x, without degrading agentic system performance.

Autonomous driving requires an understanding of the static environment from sensor data. Learned Bird's-Eye View (BEV) encoders are commonly used to fuse multiple inputs, and a vector decoder predicts a vectorized map representation from the latent BEV grid. However, traditional map construction models provide deterministic point estimates, failing to capture uncertainty and the inherent ambiguities of real-world environments, such as occlusions and missing lane markings. We propose MapDiffusion, a novel generative approach that leverages the diffusion paradigm to learn the full distribution of possible vectorized maps. Instead of predicting a single deterministic output from learned queries, MapDiffusion iteratively refines randomly initialized queries, conditioned on a BEV latent grid, to generate multiple plausible map samples. This allows aggregating samples to improve prediction accuracy and deriving uncertainty estimates that directly correlate with scene ambiguity. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that MapDiffusion achieves state-of-the-art performance in online map construction, surpassing the baseline by 5% in single-sample performance. We further show that aggregating multiple samples consistently improves performance along the ROC curve, validating the benefit of distribution modeling. Additionally, our uncertainty estimates are significantly higher in occluded areas, reinforcing their value in identifying regions with ambiguous sensor input. By modeling the full map distribution, MapDiffusion enhances the robustness and reliability of online vectorized HD map construction, enabling uncertainty-aware decision-making for autonomous vehicles in complex environments.

Conventional transformer inference engines are request-driven, paying an O(n) prefill cost on every query. In streaming workloads, where data arrives continuously and queries probe an ever-growing context, this cost is prohibitive. We introduce a data-driven computational model centred on stateful sessions: a persistent KV cache advanced incrementally as new data arrives, so prefill is moved off the critical path and query latency becomes O(|q|), independent of accumulated context size. Building on this, Flash Queries reclaim idle GPU cycles between data arrivals to pre-evaluate registered questions and return cached answers before the user asks, a pattern that is structurally impossible in stateless engines because they discard intermediate state between requests. A multi-tenant continuous-batching scheduler with cell-budget admission and prefix-aware grouped prefill lets dozens of stateful sessions coexist on a single GPU while preserving full quadratic self-attention. On streaming market-data benchmarks the reference implementation achieves up to 5.9x speedup over conventional inference engines (vLLM, SGLang, TensorRT-LLM, llama.cpp), holding query latency constant as accumulated context grows.