Daily Papers

Speaker embeddings aggregate frame-level acoustic features into compact representations for speaker recognition. Recent uncertainty-aware speaker modeling approaches further characterize the reliability of speaker embeddings by estimating their associated uncertainty. However, existing methods often suffer from inaccurate uncertainty estimation and uncertainty miscalibration under domain shifts. To address these challenges, we propose a robust uncertainty modeling framework from both estimation and adaptation perspectives. Specifically, we introduce an Inter- and Intra-Speaker-Aware Uncertainty Softmax that incorporates both inter-speaker separability and intra-speaker variability into uncertainty learning, enabling uncertainty estimates to better capture the reliability of speaker embeddings. Furthermore, we propose an Uncertainty-Calibrated Domain Adaptation (UCDA) framework to mitigate uncertainty miscalibration caused by domain mismatch. Extensive experiments on both in-domain and cross-domain benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed approach consistently improves uncertainty reliability and speaker recognition robustness.

An utterance-level speaker embedding is typically obtained by aggregating a sequence of frame-level representations. However, in real-world scenarios, individual frames encode not only speaker-relevant information but also various nuisance factors. As a result, different frames contribute unequally to the final utterance-level speaker representation for Automatic Speaker Verification systems. To address this issue, we propose to estimate the inherent uncertainty of each frame and assign adaptive weights accordingly, where frames with higher uncertainty receive lower attention. Based on this idea, we present U3-xi, a comprehensive framework designed to produce more reliable and interpretable uncertainty estimates for speaker embeddings. Specifically, we introduce several strategies for uncertainty supervision. First, we propose speaker-level uncertainty supervision via a Stochastic Variance Loss, where the distance between an utterance embedding and its corresponding speaker centroid serves as a pseudo ground truth for uncertainty learning. Second, we incorporate global-level uncertainty supervision by injecting the predicted uncertainty into the sof tmax scale during training. This adaptive scaling mechanism adjusts the sharpness of the decision boundary according to sample difficulty, providing global guidance. Third, we redesign the uncertainty estimation module by integrating a Transformer encoder with multi-view self-attention, enabling the model to capture rich local and long-range temporal dependencies. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that U3-xi is model-agnostic and can be seamlessly applied to various speaker encoders. In particular, when applied to ECAPA-TDNN, it achieves 21.1% and 15.57% relative improvements on the VoxCeleb1 test sets in terms of EER and minDCF, respectively.

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others introduce sampling methods that can be prohibitively expensive. In this work, we first argue that prompting on its own is insufficient to achieve good calibration and then show that fine-tuning on a small dataset of correct and incorrect answers can create an uncertainty estimate with good generalization and small computational overhead. We show that a thousand graded examples are sufficient to outperform baseline methods and that training through the features of a model is necessary for good performance and tractable for large open-source models when using LoRA. We also investigate the mechanisms that enable reliable LLM uncertainty estimation, finding that many models can be used as general-purpose uncertainty estimators, applicable not just to their own uncertainties but also the uncertainty of other models. Lastly, we show that uncertainty estimates inform human use of LLMs in human-AI collaborative settings through a user study.

Several recent end-to-end text-to-speech (TTS) models enabling single-stage training and parallel sampling have been proposed, but their sample quality does not match that of two-stage TTS systems. In this work, we present a parallel end-to-end TTS method that generates more natural sounding audio than current two-stage models. Our method adopts variational inference augmented with normalizing flows and an adversarial training process, which improves the expressive power of generative modeling. We also propose a stochastic duration predictor to synthesize speech with diverse rhythms from input text. With the uncertainty modeling over latent variables and the stochastic duration predictor, our method expresses the natural one-to-many relationship in which a text input can be spoken in multiple ways with different pitches and rhythms. A subjective human evaluation (mean opinion score, or MOS) on the LJ Speech, a single speaker dataset, shows that our method outperforms the best publicly available TTS systems and achieves a MOS comparable to ground truth.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

As instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) evolve, aligning pretrained foundation models presents increasing challenges. Existing alignment strategies, which typically leverage diverse and high-quality data sources, often overlook the intrinsic uncertainty of tasks, learning all data samples equally. This may lead to suboptimal data efficiency and model performance. In response, we propose uncertainty-aware learning (UAL) to improve the model alignment of different task scenarios, by introducing the sample uncertainty (elicited from more capable LLMs). We implement UAL in a simple fashion -- adaptively setting the label smoothing value of training according to the uncertainty of individual samples. Analysis shows that our UAL indeed facilitates better token clustering in the feature space, validating our hypothesis. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks demonstrate that our UAL significantly and consistently outperforms standard supervised fine-tuning. Notably, LLMs aligned in a mixed scenario have achieved an average improvement of 10.62\% on high-entropy tasks (i.e., AlpacaEval leaderboard), and 1.81\% on complex low-entropy tasks (i.e., MetaMath and GSM8K).

Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically benchmarked against tasks with no ambiguity. In this work, we demonstrate that while current uncertainty estimators perform well under the restrictive assumption of no ambiguity, they degrade to close-to-random performance on ambiguous data. To this end, we introduce MAQA* and AmbigQA*, the first ambiguous question-answering (QA) datasets equipped with ground-truth answer distributions estimated from factual co-occurrence. We find this performance deterioration to be consistent across different estimation paradigms: using the predictive distribution itself, internal representations throughout the model, and an ensemble of models. We show that this phenomenon can be theoretically explained, revealing that predictive-distribution and ensemble-based estimators are fundamentally limited under ambiguity. Overall, our study reveals a key shortcoming of current UQ methods for LLMs and motivates a rethinking of current modeling paradigms.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in natural language generation and instruction following, a persistent challenge lies in their susceptibility to "hallucinations", which erodes trust in their outputs. Although Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a promising solution, its accurate implementation within the context of LLMs remains a significant hurdle. To address this critical roadblock, our research originates from a fundamental heuristic insight: tokens within auto-regressive LLM-generated text do not equally reflect the underlying meaning. Some tokens carry greater relevance and representativeness than others, owing to the phenomenon of "linguistic redundancy", wherein a select few keywords suffice to convey the essence of lengthy sentences. Regrettably, existing methodologies treat all tokens with equal importance when estimating uncertainty, disregarding these inherent generative inequalities. Our analysis reveals a significant issue with state-of-the-art: numerous tokens (and sentences) of limited semantic significance receive equal or even excessive weighting during uncertainty estimation. To rectify this bias, we propose to jointly Shifting Attention to more Relevant (SAR) components, at both the token- and the sentence-levels for accurate uncertainty estimation. We conduct extensive experiments involving a range of popular "off-the-shelf" LLMs, including instruction-tuned LLMs such as Vicuna, WizardLM, and LLaMA-2-chat, as well as pretrained LLMs like OPT and LLaMA, with model sizes extending up to 33B parameters. We carry out evaluation across various free-form question-answering tasks, encompassing domains such as reading comprehension, science Q&A, and medical Q&A. Our experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of SAR in addressing the challenges of uncertainty estimation within the realm of LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but incorrect information, a phenomenon known as LLM hallucinations. Reliable uncertainty estimation in LLMs is essential for fostering trust in their generated responses and serves as a critical tool for the detection and prevention of erroneous or hallucinated outputs. To achieve reliable and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification in open-ended and free-form natural language generation, we propose an uncertainty-aware fine-tuning approach for LLMs. This approach enhances the model's ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates without compromising accuracy, thereby guiding them to produce more trustworthy responses. We introduce a novel uncertainty-aware causal language modeling loss function, grounded in the principles of decision theory. Through rigorous evaluation on multiple free-form question-answering datasets and models, we demonstrate that our uncertainty-aware fine-tuning approach yields better calibrated uncertainty estimates in natural language generation tasks than fine-tuning with the standard causal language modeling loss. Furthermore, the experimental results show that the proposed method significantly improves the model's ability to detect hallucinations and identify out-of-domain prompts.

This paper introduces Bayesian uncertainty modeling using Stochastic Weight Averaging-Gaussian (SWAG) in Natural Language Understanding (NLU) tasks. We apply the approach to standard tasks in natural language inference (NLI) and demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in terms of prediction accuracy and correlation with human annotation disagreements. We argue that the uncertainty representations in SWAG better reflect subjective interpretation and the natural variation that is also present in human language understanding. The results reveal the importance of uncertainty modeling, an often neglected aspect of neural language modeling, in NLU tasks.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Speaker recognition systems are often limited to classification tasks and struggle to generate detailed speaker characteristics or provide context-rich descriptions. These models primarily extract embeddings for speaker identification but fail to capture demographic attributes such as dialect, gender, and age in a structured manner. This paper introduces CoLMbo, a Speaker Language Model (SLM) that addresses these limitations by integrating a speaker encoder with prompt-based conditioning. This allows for the creation of detailed captions based on speaker embeddings. CoLMbo utilizes user-defined prompts to adapt dynamically to new speaker characteristics and provides customized descriptions, including regional dialect variations and age-related traits. This innovative approach not only enhances traditional speaker profiling but also excels in zero-shot scenarios across diverse datasets, marking a significant advancement in the field of speaker recognition.

Estimating the uncertainty of responses of Large Language Models~(LLMs) remains a critical challenge. While recent Bayesian methods have demonstrated effectiveness in quantifying uncertainty through low-rank weight updates, they typically require complex fine-tuning or post-training procedures. In this paper, we propose Training-Free Bayesianization~(TFB), a novel framework that transforms existing off-the-shelf trained LoRA adapters into Bayesian ones without additional training. TFB systematically searches for the maximally acceptable level of variance in the weight posterior, constrained within a family of low-rank isotropic Gaussian distributions. We theoretically demonstrate that under mild conditions, this search process is equivalent to variational inference for the weights. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that TFB achieves superior uncertainty estimation and generalization compared to existing methods while eliminating the need for complex training procedures. Code will be available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/bayesian-peft.

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Since current LLMs generate text autoregressively through a stochastic process, the same prompt can lead to varying outputs. Consequently, leading uncertainty estimation methods generate and analyze multiple output sequences to determine the LLM's uncertainty. However, generating output sequences is computationally expensive, making these methods impractical at scale. In this work, we inspect the theoretical foundations of the leading methods and explore new directions to enhance their computational efficiency. Building on the framework of proper scoring rules, we find that the negative log-likelihood of the most likely output sequence constitutes a theoretically grounded uncertainty measure. To approximate this alternative measure, we propose G-NLL, which has the advantage of being obtained using only a single output sequence generated by greedy decoding. This makes uncertainty estimation more efficient and straightforward, while preserving theoretical rigor. Empirical results demonstrate that G-NLL achieves state-of-the-art performance across various LLMs and tasks. Our work lays the foundation for efficient and reliable uncertainty estimation in natural language generation, challenging the necessity of more computationally involved methods currently leading the field.

Text embeddings are essential components in modern NLP pipelines. While numerous embedding models have been proposed, their performance varies across domains. This variability motivates the use of ensemble techniques to combine complementary strengths. However, most existing ensemble methods operate on deterministic embeddings and fail to account for model-specific uncertainty, limiting their robustness and reliability in downstream applications. To address these limitations, we propose Uncertainty-driven Embedding Convolution (UEC). UEC first transforms deterministic embeddings into probabilistic ones in a post-hoc manner. It then computes adaptive ensemble weights based on embedding uncertainty, grounded in a Bayes-optimal solution under a surrogate loss. Additionally, UEC employs an uncertainty-aware similarity function that directly incorporates uncertainty into the similarity scoring, providing a theoretically grounded and efficient surrogate to distributional distances. Extensive experiments on diverse benchmarks demonstrate that UEC consistently improves both performance and robustness by leveraging principled uncertainty modeling.

Although large language models (LLMs) are capable of performing various tasks, they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict whether a response is correct or not. However, most uncertainty quantification methods have been evaluated on questions requiring a single clear answer, ignoring the existence of data uncertainty that arises from irreducible randomness. Instead, these methods only consider model uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge. In this paper, we investigate previous uncertainty quantification methods under the presence of data uncertainty. Our contributions are two-fold: 1) proposing a new Multi-Answer Question Answering dataset, MAQA, consisting of world knowledge, mathematical reasoning, and commonsense reasoning tasks to evaluate uncertainty quantification regarding data uncertainty, and 2) assessing 5 uncertainty quantification methods of diverse white- and black-box LLMs. Our findings show that entropy and consistency-based methods estimate the model uncertainty well even under data uncertainty, while other methods for white- and black-box LLMs struggle depending on the tasks. Additionally, methods designed for white-box LLMs suffer from overconfidence in reasoning tasks compared to simple knowledge queries. We believe our observations will pave the way for future work on uncertainty quantification in realistic setting.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks by encoding vast amounts of factual knowledge. However, they are still prone to hallucinations, generating incorrect or misleading information, often accompanied by high uncertainty. Existing methods for hallucination detection primarily focus on quantifying internal uncertainty, which arises from missing or conflicting knowledge within the model. However, hallucinations can also stem from external uncertainty, where ambiguous user queries lead to multiple possible interpretations. In this work, we introduce Semantic Volume, a novel mathematical measure for quantifying both external and internal uncertainty in LLMs. Our approach perturbs queries and responses, embeds them in a semantic space, and computes the determinant of the Gram matrix of the embedding vectors, capturing their dispersion as a measure of uncertainty. Our framework provides a generalizable and unsupervised uncertainty detection method without requiring white-box access to LLMs. We conduct extensive experiments on both external and internal uncertainty detection, demonstrating that our Semantic Volume method consistently outperforms existing baselines in both tasks. Additionally, we provide theoretical insights linking our measure to differential entropy, unifying and extending previous sampling-based uncertainty measures such as the semantic entropy. Semantic Volume is shown to be a robust and interpretable approach to improving the reliability of LLMs by systematically detecting uncertainty in both user queries and model responses.

This paper investigates adapting Audio Large Language Models (ALLMs) for speaker verification (SV). We reformulate SV as an audio question-answering task and conduct comprehensive zero-shot evaluations on public benchmarks, showing that current ALLMs have limited zero-shot SV capability and often struggle in diverse acoustic conditions. To address this challenge, we perform supervised fine-tuning on speaker verification data. A rule-based hard pair sampling strategy is proposed to construct more challenging training pairs. Lightweight fine-tuning substantially improves the performance, though there is still a gap between ALLMs and conventional models. Then, we extend to text-dependent SV by jointly querying ALLMs to verify speaker identity and spoken content, yielding results competitive with cascaded ASR-SV systems. Our findings demonstrate that with proper adaptation, ALLMs hold substantial potential as a unified model for robust speaker verification systems, while maintaining the general audio understanding capabilities.

Large language models (LLMs) produce outputs with varying levels of uncertainty, and, just as often, varying levels of correctness; making their practical reliability far from guaranteed. To quantify this uncertainty, we systematically evaluate four approaches for confidence estimation in LLM outputs: VCE, MSP, Sample Consistency, and CoCoA (Vashurin et al., 2025). For the evaluation of the approaches, we conduct experiments on four question-answering tasks using a state-of-the-art open-source LLM. Our results show that each uncertainty metric captures a different facet of model confidence and that the hybrid CoCoA approach yields the best reliability overall, improving both calibration and discrimination of correct answers. We discuss the trade-offs of each method and provide recommendations for selecting uncertainty measures in LLM applications.

The task of Error Prediction, namely predicting whether a model output is correct, is commonly tackled with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). However, while uncertainty metrics capture when models lack knowledge or capacity to make a prediction, they also reflect aleatoric uncertainty, which is inherent in the model input and context. This paper presents a method for improving error prediction for Large Language Models (LLMs), by disentangling input ambiguity from UQ signal. We conduct experiments on the task of Question Answering (QA) with six UQ metrics and show that UQ metrics are more predictive of errors on unambiguous instances than on questions with multiple plausible answers. We use Gated Experts and Selective Prediction to incorporate gold and predicted ambiguity labels into the error prediction pipeline. We find that ambiguity information improves error prediction scores across model families, training and evaluation paradigms, datasets (including allegedly unambiguous ones), and sources of aleatoric uncertainty, yielding improvements of over 10 points of PRR for individual UQ metrics on standard datasets.

Hallucinations are a common issue that undermine the reliability of large language models (LLMs). Recent studies have identified a specific subset of hallucinations, known as confabulations, which arise due to predictive uncertainty of LLMs. To detect confabulations, various methods for estimating predictive uncertainty in natural language generation (NLG) have been developed. These methods are typically evaluated by correlating uncertainty estimates with the correctness of generated text, with question-answering (QA) datasets serving as the standard benchmark. However, commonly used approximate correctness functions have substantial disagreement between each other and, consequently, in the ranking of the uncertainty estimation methods. This allows one to inflate the apparent performance of uncertainty estimation methods. We propose using several alternative risk indicators for risk correlation experiments that improve robustness of empirical assessment of UE algorithms for NLG. For QA tasks, we show that marginalizing over multiple LLM-as-a-judge variants leads to reducing the evaluation biases. Furthermore, we explore structured tasks as well as out of distribution and perturbation detection tasks which provide robust and controllable risk indicators. Finally, we propose to use an Elo rating of uncertainty estimation methods to give an objective summarization over extensive evaluation settings.

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally expensive or lack calibration. We propose a three-stage pipeline to post-train LLMs to efficiently infer calibrated uncertainty estimates for their responses. First, we compute fine-grained entropy-based uncertainty scores on the training data, capturing the distributional variability of model outputs in embedding space. Second, these scores are calibrated via Platt scaling, producing reliable and human-interpretable uncertainty signals. Finally, the target LLM is post-trained via reinforcement learning to align its policy with these calibrated signals through a verifiable reward function. Unlike post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods, our approach provides interpretable and computationally efficient uncertainty estimates at test time. Experiments show that models trained with our pipeline achieve better calibration than baselines and generalize to unseen tasks without further processing, suggesting that they learn a robust uncertainty reasoning behavior.

Pixel-based language models aim to solve the vocabulary bottleneck problem in language modeling, but the challenge of uncertainty quantification remains open. The novelty of this work consists of analysing uncertainty and confidence in pixel-based language models across 18 languages and 7 scripts, all part of 3 semantically challenging tasks. This is achieved through several methods such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Transformer Attention, and Ensemble Learning. The results suggest that pixel-based models underestimate uncertainty when reconstructing patches. The uncertainty is also influenced by the script, with Latin languages displaying lower uncertainty. The findings on ensemble learning show better performance when applying hyperparameter tuning during the named entity recognition and question-answering tasks across 16 languages.

In this work, we propose a novel method for modeling numerous speakers, which enables expressing the overall characteristics of speakers in detail like a trained multi-speaker model without additional training on the target speaker's dataset. Although various works with similar purposes have been actively studied, their performance has not yet reached that of trained multi-speaker models due to their fundamental limitations. To overcome previous limitations, we propose effective methods for feature learning and representing target speakers' speech characteristics by discretizing the features and conditioning them to a speech synthesis model. Our method obtained a significantly higher similarity mean opinion score (SMOS) in subjective similarity evaluation than seen speakers of a high-performance multi-speaker model, even with unseen speakers. The proposed method also outperforms a zero-shot method by significant margins. Furthermore, our method shows remarkable performance in generating new artificial speakers. In addition, we demonstrate that the encoded latent features are sufficiently informative to reconstruct an original speaker's speech completely. It implies that our method can be used as a general methodology to encode and reconstruct speakers' characteristics in various tasks.

Ensuring that large language models (LLMs) reflect diverse user values and preferences is crucial as their user bases expand globally. It is therefore encouraging to see the growing interest in LLM personalization within the research community. However, current works often rely on the LLM-as-a-Judge approach for evaluation without thoroughly examining its validity. In this paper, we investigate the reliability of LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge, asking LLMs to judge user preferences based on personas. Our findings suggest that directly applying LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge is less reliable than previously assumed, showing low and inconsistent agreement with human ground truth. The personas typically used are often overly simplistic, resulting in low predictive power. To address these issues, we introduce verbal uncertainty estimation into the LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge pipeline, allowing the model to express low confidence on uncertain judgments. This adjustment leads to much higher agreement (above 80%) on high-certainty samples for binary tasks. Through human evaluation, we find that the LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge achieves comparable performance to third-party humans evaluation and even surpasses human performance on high-certainty samples. Our work indicates that certainty-enhanced LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge offers a promising direction for developing more reliable and scalable methods for evaluating LLM personalization.

Effective interlocutors account for the uncertain goals, beliefs, and emotions of others. But even the best human conversationalist cannot perfectly anticipate the trajectory of a dialogue. How well can language models represent inherent uncertainty in conversations? We propose FortUne Dial, an expansion of the long-standing "conversation forecasting" task: instead of just accuracy, evaluation is conducted with uncertainty-aware metrics, effectively enabling abstention on individual instances. We study two ways in which language models potentially represent outcome uncertainty (internally, using scores and directly, using tokens) and propose fine-tuning strategies to improve calibration of both representations. Experiments on eight difficult negotiation corpora demonstrate that our proposed fine-tuning strategies (a traditional supervision strategy and an off-policy reinforcement learning strategy) can calibrate smaller open-source models to compete with pre-trained models 10x their size.

Leveraging human preferences for steering the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) has demonstrated notable success in recent years. Nonetheless, data selection and labeling are still a bottleneck for these systems, particularly at large scale. Hence, selecting the most informative points for acquiring human feedback may considerably reduce the cost of preference labeling and unleash the further development of LLMs. Bayesian Active Learning provides a principled framework for addressing this challenge and has demonstrated remarkable success in diverse settings. However, previous attempts to employ it for Preference Modeling did not meet such expectations. In this work, we identify that naive epistemic uncertainty estimation leads to the acquisition of redundant samples. We address this by proposing the Bayesian Active Learner for Preference Modeling (BAL-PM), a novel stochastic acquisition policy that not only targets points of high epistemic uncertainty according to the preference model but also seeks to maximize the entropy of the acquired prompt distribution in the feature space spanned by the employed LLM. Notably, our experiments demonstrate that BAL-PM requires 33% to 68% fewer preference labels in two popular human preference datasets and exceeds previous stochastic Bayesian acquisition policies.

We introduce an approach to identifying speaker names in dialogue transcripts, a crucial task for enhancing content accessibility and searchability in digital media archives. Despite the advancements in speech recognition, the task of text-based speaker identification (SpeakerID) has received limited attention, lacking large-scale, diverse datasets for effective model training. Addressing these gaps, we present a novel, large-scale dataset derived from the MediaSum corpus, encompassing transcripts from a wide range of media sources. We propose novel transformer-based models tailored for SpeakerID, leveraging contextual cues within dialogues to accurately attribute speaker names. Through extensive experiments, our best model achieves a great precision of 80.3\%, setting a new benchmark for SpeakerID. The data and code are publicly available here: https://github.com/adobe-research/speaker-identification

In this paper, we explore various approaches for semi supervised learning in an end to end automatic speech recognition (ASR) framework. The first step in our approach involves training a seed model on the limited amount of labelled data. Additional unlabelled speech data is employed through a data selection mechanism to obtain the best hypothesized output, further used to retrain the seed model. However, uncertainties of the model may not be well captured with a single hypothesis. As opposed to this technique, we apply a dropout mechanism to capture the uncertainty by obtaining multiple hypothesized text transcripts of an speech recording. We assume that the diversity of automatically generated transcripts for an utterance will implicitly increase the reliability of the model. Finally, the data selection process is also applied on these hypothesized transcripts to reduce the uncertainty. Experiments on freely available TEDLIUM corpus and proprietary Adobe's internal dataset show that the proposed approach significantly reduces ASR errors, compared to the baseline model.

Uncertainty estimation is essential not only for the trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) but also as a foundation for self-refinement in LLM generation. However, existing approaches operate at suboptimal granularities: token-level scores lack semantic coherence, while sequence-level scores fail to localize errors. We formalize Span-Level Uncertainty Estimation (SLUE), a new task that targets the natural granularity for uncertainty: semantically coherent text spans, each conveying a single assessable unit of meaning. To address this task, we introduce SPANUQ, a lightweight probe that distills the uncertainty knowledge from expensive multi-sample inference into a single forward pass over LLM hidden states. SPANUQ employs a DETR-style span decoder to simultaneously detect spans and estimate their uncertainty via a Mixture of Beta distribution, trained with a principled combination of Beta NLL regression and contrastive ranking objectives. We construct SPANUQ-BENCH, the first span-level uncertainty benchmark comprising 20K prompts, 293K annotated spans, and continuous soft labels derived from multi-sample claim verification. Experiments on five LLM backbones show that SPANUQ consistently achieves the best span-level uncertainty quality, outperforming the strongest probe baseline and all sampling-based methods while being 10-20x faster. Its DETR-based span detector attains 0.910 F1, surpassing the best heuristic by 39.4%, enabling precise error localization that sequence-level methods cannot provide. The framework generalizes across five LLMs spanning two model families.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) for long-context inference remains challenging due to their substantial memory and computational demands. While techniques such as Key-Value (KV) cache compression are designed to reduce memory usage, they often neglect the structured sparsity inherent in the relationship between hidden states and their corresponding KV cache. In this work, we explore the role of uncertainty as a potential indicator of sparsity within LLMs. We propose UNComp, an uncertainty-aware framework that leverages truncated matrix entropy to identify areas of low information content, thereby revealing sparsity patterns that can be used for adaptive compression. Unlike traditional methods that apply uniform compression, UNComp dynamically adjusts its approach to compression, guided by uncertainty measures that reflect the importance of various model components. Our analysis shows that sparsity patterns, when derived from uncertainty estimates, can be exploited to reveal special long-range dependencies, such as retrieval heads and retrieval layers. This perspective not only enhances our understanding of how compression can be optimized but also provides new insights into the inherent sparsity of LLMs during long-context inference. By focusing on uncertainty to analyze the sparsity pattern in detail, UNComp reduces the KV cache size to 4.74% of the original, achieves a 6% prefill speedup, and improves throughput by 6.4x - not only delivering strong lossless compression performance, but also validating the effectiveness of the underlying theoretical tool. We release the code at https://github.com/menik1126/UNComp.

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains an open challenge, with limited research on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NLG. Furthermore, existing literature typically assumes white-box access to language models, which is becoming unrealistic either due to the closed-source nature of the latest LLMs or computational constraints. In this work, we investigate UQ in NLG for black-box LLMs. We first differentiate uncertainty vs confidence: the former refers to the "dispersion" of the potential predictions for a fixed input, and the latter refers to the confidence on a particular prediction/generation. We then propose and compare several confidence/uncertainty metrics, applying them to selective NLG where unreliable results could either be ignored or yielded for further assessment. Experiments were carried out with several popular LLMs on question-answering datasets (for evaluation purposes). Results reveal that a simple metric for the semantic dispersion can be a reliable predictor of the quality of LLM responses, providing valuable insights for practitioners on uncertainty management when adopting LLMs. The code to replicate our experiments is available at https://github.com/zlin7/UQ-NLG.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, the ability to reliably quantify uncertainty has become a critical requirement for safety and trust. However, current uncertainty quantification methods primarily operate at the output level, often failing to distinguish whether uncertainty arises from the model's lack of knowledge or from ambiguity in the user's input. While input-centric uncertainty quantification has recently emerged as a promising direction, it remains relatively underexplored and typically relies on coarse, input-level information. Consequently, users are provided with scalar uncertainty scores that offer little actionable guidance on which parts of the input should be clarified to improve reliability. To address this limitation, we propose Shapley-based input uncertainty Quantification (ShaQ), a framework for span-level attribution of input-induced uncertainty. Our approach models ambiguous spans in the input as players in a cooperative game and quantifies their contributions using Shapley values, defined via the weighted average of marginal reductions in conditional entropy obtained by clarifying each span coalition. Unlike existing input-level approaches, our formulation captures complex interactions among spans and provides a principled decomposition in which individual attributions sum exactly to the total input-induced uncertainty. We evaluate ShaQ on the AmbigQA and AmbiEnt benchmarks, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance in ambiguity detection. We further demonstrate its utility on MediTOD, showing that ShaQ can localize under-specified clinical utterances and facilitate human-AI collaboration in high-stakes settings. Overall, ShaQ improves uncertainty estimation and provides actionable insights for targeted input clarification.

Uncertainty learning and quantification of models are crucial tasks to enhance the trustworthiness of the models. Importantly, the recent surge of generative language models (GLMs) emphasizes the need for reliable uncertainty quantification due to the concerns on generating hallucinated facts. In this paper, we propose to learn neural prediction set models that comes with the probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantee for quantifying the uncertainty of GLMs. Unlike existing prediction set models, which are parameterized by a scalar value, we propose to parameterize prediction sets via neural networks, which achieves more precise uncertainty quantification but still satisfies the PAC guarantee. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on four types of language datasets and six types of models by showing that our method improves the quantified uncertainty by 63% on average, compared to a standard baseline method.

Large language models (LLMs), while transformative for NLP, come with significant computational demands, underlining the need for efficient, training-free compression. Notably, the reliability of perplexity as a benchmark for compressed model efficacy is in question, as our tests using LLaMA-7B and OPT-6.7b reveal a significant performance drop in several realistic downstream tasks, underscoring the disparity between perplexity as a performance indicator and real-world performance. Investigation into the trade-off between resource-intensive post-compression re-training highlights the prospect of prompt-driven recovery as a lightweight adaption tool. However, existing studies, confined mainly to perplexity evaluations and simple tasks, fail to offer unequivocal confidence in the scalability and generalizability of prompting. We tackle this uncertainty in two key ways. First, we uncover the vulnerability of naive prompts in LLM compression as an over-reliance on a singular prompt per input. In response, we propose inference-time dynamic prompting (IDP), a mechanism that autonomously chooses from a set of curated prompts based on the context of each individual input. Second, we delve into a scientific understanding of why ``prompting might be all you need post-LLM compression". Our findings suggest that compression doesn't irretrievably erase LLM model knowledge but displace it, necessitating a new inference path. IDP effectively redirects this path, enabling the model to tap into its inherent yet displaced knowledge and thereby recover performance. Empirical tests affirm the value of IDP, demonstrating an average performance improvement of 1.24% across nine varied tasks spanning multiple knowledge domains.

Reward models (RM) play a critical role in aligning generations of large language models (LLM) to human expectations. However, prevailing RMs fail to capture the stochasticity within human preferences and cannot effectively evaluate the reliability of reward predictions. To address these issues, we propose Uncertain-aware RM (URM) and Uncertain-aware RM Ensemble (URME) to incorporate and manage uncertainty in reward modeling. URM can model the distribution of disentangled attributes within human preferences, while URME quantifies uncertainty through discrepancies in the ensemble, thereby identifying potential lack of knowledge during reward evaluation. Experiment results indicate that the proposed URM achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to models with the same size, demonstrating the effectiveness of modeling uncertainty within human preferences. Furthermore, empirical results show that through uncertainty quantification, URM and URME can identify unreliable predictions to improve the quality of reward evaluations.

The remarkable performance of large language models (LLMs) in content generation, coding, and common-sense reasoning has spurred widespread integration into many facets of society. However, integration of LLMs raises valid questions on their reliability and trustworthiness, given their propensity to generate hallucinations: plausible, factually-incorrect responses, which are expressed with striking confidence. Previous work has shown that hallucinations and other non-factual responses generated by LLMs can be detected by examining the uncertainty of the LLM in its response to the pertinent prompt, driving significant research efforts devoted to quantifying the uncertainty of LLMs. This survey seeks to provide an extensive review of existing uncertainty quantification methods for LLMs, identifying their salient features, along with their strengths and weaknesses. We present existing methods within a relevant taxonomy, unifying ostensibly disparate methods to aid understanding of the state of the art. Furthermore, we highlight applications of uncertainty quantification methods for LLMs, spanning chatbot and textual applications to embodied artificial intelligence applications in robotics. We conclude with open research challenges in uncertainty quantification of LLMs, seeking to motivate future research.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation equips large language models with the capability to retrieve external knowledge, thereby mitigating hallucinations by incorporating information beyond the model's intrinsic abilities. However, most prior works have focused on invoking retrieval deterministically, which makes it unsuitable for tasks such as long-form question answering. Instead, dynamically performing retrieval by invoking it only when the underlying LLM lacks the required knowledge can be more efficient. In this context, we delve deeper into the question, "To Retrieve or Not to Retrieve?" by exploring multiple uncertainty detection methods. We evaluate these methods for the task of long-form question answering, employing dynamic retrieval, and present our comparisons. Our findings suggest that uncertainty detection metrics, such as Degree Matrix Jaccard and Eccentricity, can reduce the number of retrieval calls by almost half, with only a slight reduction in question-answering accuracy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often suffer from overconfidence during inference, particularly when adapted to downstream domain-specific tasks with limited data. Previous work addresses this issue by employing approximate Bayesian estimation after the LLMs are trained, enabling them to quantify uncertainty. However, such post-training approaches' performance is severely limited by the parameters learned during training. In this paper, we go beyond post-training Bayesianization and propose Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation by Backpropagation (BLoB), an algorithm that continuously and jointly adjusts both the mean and covariance of LLM parameters throughout the whole fine-tuning process. Our empirical results verify the effectiveness of BLoB in terms of generalization and uncertainty estimation, when evaluated on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential for data annotation, markedly reducing the labor costs associated with downstream applications. However, existing methods mostly adopt an aggressive strategy by prompting LLM to determine a single gold label for each unlabeled sample. Due to the inherent uncertainty within LLMs, they often produce incorrect labels for difficult samples, severely compromising the data quality for downstream applications. Motivated by ambiguity aversion in human behaviors, we propose a novel candidate annotation paradigm wherein large language models are encouraged to output all possible labels when incurring uncertainty. To ensure unique labels are provided for downstream tasks, we develop a teacher-student framework CanDist that distills candidate annotations with a Small Language Model (SLM). We further provide a rigorous justification demonstrating that distilling candidate annotations from the teacher LLM offers superior theoretical guarantees compared to directly using single annotations. Extensive experiments across six text classification tasks validate the effectiveness of our proposed method. The source code is available at https://github.com/MingxuanXia/CanDist.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks but still face challenges such as hallucinations. One potential reason for hallucinations is the lack of relevant knowledge or context. Thus, a promising solution to mitigate this issue involves instructing LLMs to respond with "I do not know" when a question falls outside their knowledge domain or the provided context. However, in this work, we observed that LLMs struggle to admit their lack of knowledge, primarily due to existing instruction datasets designed to encourage specific answers. To improve large language models' capability to recognize the boundaries of their knowledge, we propose a novel approach called uncertainty-sensitive tuning. This method involves two-stage training designed for uncertainty recognition and prompt-sensitive activation. In the first stage, we guide the LLM to reject unknown questions. In the second stage, we recover the decreased performance in QA tasks by incorporating designed causal instructions. By leveraging this method, we aim to enhance the model's ability to identify areas of uncertainty. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed uncertainty-sensitive tuning method significantly improves the performance of the Llama2-chat-7B model. Specifically, it achieves a substantial 34.7% improvement in handling questions involving knowledge gaps compared to the original model. Moreover, our approach outperforms GPT-4, exhibiting a 9.4% increase in overall performance. We open-source the model and code on GitHub.

Recent work has explored sequence-to-sequence latent variable models for expressive speech synthesis (supporting control and transfer of prosody and style), but has not presented a coherent framework for understanding the trade-offs between the competing methods. In this paper, we propose embedding capacity (the amount of information the embedding contains about the data) as a unified method of analyzing the behavior of latent variable models of speech, comparing existing heuristic (non-variational) methods to variational methods that are able to explicitly constrain capacity using an upper bound on representational mutual information. In our proposed model (Capacitron), we show that by adding conditional dependencies to the variational posterior such that it matches the form of the true posterior, the same model can be used for high-precision prosody transfer, text-agnostic style transfer, and generation of natural-sounding prior samples. For multi-speaker models, Capacitron is able to preserve target speaker identity during inter-speaker prosody transfer and when drawing samples from the latent prior. Lastly, we introduce a method for decomposing embedding capacity hierarchically across two sets of latents, allowing a portion of the latent variability to be specified and the remaining variability sampled from a learned prior. Audio examples are available on the web.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown great promise for capturing contextual information in natural language processing tasks. We propose a novel approach to speaker diarization that incorporates the prowess of LLMs to exploit contextual cues in human dialogues. Our method builds upon an acoustic-based speaker diarization system by adding lexical information from an LLM in the inference stage. We model the multi-modal decoding process probabilistically and perform joint acoustic and lexical beam search to incorporate cues from both modalities: audio and text. Our experiments demonstrate that infusing lexical knowledge from the LLM into an acoustics-only diarization system improves overall speaker-attributed word error rate (SA-WER). The experimental results show that LLMs can provide complementary information to acoustic models for the speaker diarization task via proposed beam search decoding approach showing up to 39.8% relative delta-SA-WER improvement from the baseline system. Thus, we substantiate that the proposed technique is able to exploit contextual information that is inaccessible to acoustics-only systems which is represented by speaker embeddings. In addition, these findings point to the potential of using LLMs to improve speaker diarization and other speech processing tasks by capturing semantic and contextual cues.

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order Theta(log n / n); (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk O(n^{-1/2}) in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as k^* = Theta(nlog(1/varepsilon)) with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for enhancing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes applications. Existing methods often overlook semantic dependencies, relying on token-level probability measures that fail to capture structural relationships within the generated text. We propose GENUINE: Graph ENhanced mUlti-level uncertaINty Estimation for Large Language Models, a structure-aware framework that leverages dependency parse trees and hierarchical graph pooling to refine uncertainty quantification. By incorporating supervised learning, GENUINE effectively models semantic and structural relationships, improving confidence assessments. Extensive experiments across NLP tasks show that GENUINE achieves up to 29% higher AUROC than semantic entropy-based approaches and reduces calibration errors by over 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of graph-based uncertainty modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/ODYSSEYWT/GUQ.

Recent studies have successfully shown that large language models (LLMs) can be successfully used for generative error correction (GER) on top of the automatic speech recognition (ASR) output. Specifically, an LLM is utilized to carry out a direct mapping from the N-best hypotheses list generated by an ASR system to the predicted output transcription. However, despite its effectiveness, GER introduces extra data uncertainty since the LLM is trained without taking into account acoustic information available in the speech signal. In this work, we aim to overcome such a limitation by infusing acoustic information before generating the predicted transcription through a novel late fusion solution termed Uncertainty-Aware Dynamic Fusion (UADF). UADF is a multimodal fusion approach implemented into an auto-regressive decoding process and works in two stages: (i) It first analyzes and calibrates the token-level LLM decision, and (ii) it then dynamically assimilates the information from the acoustic modality. Experimental evidence collected from various ASR tasks shows that UADF surpasses existing fusion mechanisms in several ways. It yields significant improvements in word error rate (WER) while mitigating data uncertainty issues in LLM and addressing the poor generalization relied with sole modality during fusion. We also demonstrate that UADF seamlessly adapts to audio-visual speech recognition.

Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose decisions and confidences not only stem from intrinsic beliefs but can also be adjusted through daily observations, existing calibration methods for LLMs focus on estimating or eliciting individual confidence without taking full advantage of the "Collective Wisdom": the interaction among multiple LLMs that can collectively improve both accuracy and calibration. In this work, we propose Collaborative Calibration, a post-hoc training-free calibration strategy that leverages the collaborative and expressive capabilities of multiple tool-augmented LLM agents in a simulated group deliberation process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Collaborative Calibration on generative QA tasks across various domains, showing its potential in harnessing the rationalization of collectively calibrated confidence assessments and improving the reliability of model predictions.

State-of-the-art speaker verification systems are inherently dependent on some kind of human supervision as they are trained on massive amounts of labeled data. However, manually annotating utterances is slow, expensive and not scalable to the amount of data available today. In this study, we explore self-supervised learning for speaker verification by learning representations directly from raw audio. The objective is to produce robust speaker embeddings that have small intra-speaker and large inter-speaker variance. Our approach is based on recent information maximization learning frameworks and an intensive data augmentation pre-processing step. We evaluate the ability of these methods to work without contrastive samples before showing that they achieve better performance when combined with a contrastive loss. Furthermore, we conduct experiments to show that our method reaches competitive results compared to existing techniques and can get better performances compared to a supervised baseline when fine-tuned with a small portion of labeled data.

Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer significant performance degradation in multi-turn conversations when information is presented incrementally. Given that multi-turn conversations characterize everyday interactions with LLMs, this degradation poses a severe challenge to real world usability. We hypothesize that abrupt increases in model uncertainty signal misalignment in multi-turn LLM interactions, and we exploit this insight to dynamically realign conversational context. We introduce ERGO (Entropy-guided Resetting for Generation Optimization), which continuously quantifies internal uncertainty via Shannon entropy over next token distributions and triggers adaptive prompt consolidation when a sharp spike in entropy is detected. By treating uncertainty as a first class signal rather than a nuisance to eliminate, ERGO embraces variability in language and modeling, representing and responding to uncertainty. In multi-turn tasks with incrementally revealed instructions, ERGO yields a 56.6% average performance gain over standard baselines, increases aptitude (peak performance capability) by 24.7%, and decreases unreliability (variability in performance) by 35.3%, demonstrating that uncertainty aware interventions can improve both accuracy and reliability in conversational AI.

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on estimating the entropy of the distribution of the LLM's potential output sequences. This estimation is based on a set of output sequences and associated probabilities obtained by querying the LLM several times. In this paper, we advocate and experimentally show that the probability of unobserved sequences plays a crucial role, and we recommend future research to integrate it to enhance such LLM uncertainty quantification methods.

We present a speaker-aware approach for simulating multi-speaker conversations that captures temporal consistency and realistic turn-taking dynamics. Prior work typically models aggregate conversational statistics under an independence assumption across speakers and turns. In contrast, our method uses speaker-specific deviation distributions enforcing intra-speaker temporal consistency, while a Markov chain governs turn-taking and a fixed room impulse response preserves spatial realism. We also unify pauses and overlaps into a single gap distribution, modeled with kernel density estimation for smooth continuity. Evaluation on Switchboard using intrinsic metrics - global gap statistics, correlations between consecutive gaps, copula-based higher-order dependencies, turn-taking entropy, and gap survival functions - shows that speaker-aware simulation better aligns with real conversational patterns than the baseline method, capturing fine-grained temporal dependencies and realistic speaker alternation, while revealing open challenges in modeling long-range conversational structure.

Large Language Models (LLMs) hallucinate, generating factually incorrect yet confident assertions. We argue this stems from the Transformer's Softmax function, which creates "Artificial Certainty" by collapsing ambiguous attention scores into a single probability distribution, discarding uncertainty information at each layer. To fix this, we introduce the Credal Transformer, which replaces standard attention with a Credal Attention Mechanism (CAM) based on evidential theory. CAM produces a "credal set" (a set of distributions) instead of a single attention vector, with the set's size directly measuring model uncertainty. We implement this by re-conceptualizing attention scores as evidence masses for a Dirichlet distribution: sufficient evidence recovers standard attention, while insufficient evidence yields a diffuse distribution, representing ambiguity. Empirically, the Credal Transformer identifies out-of-distribution inputs, quantifies ambiguity, and significantly reduces confident errors on unanswerable questions by abstaining. Our contribution is a new architecture to mitigate hallucinations and a design paradigm that integrates uncertainty quantification directly into the model, providing a foundation for more reliable AI.

Language models that are sensitive to external context can more effectively capture the speaking patterns of individuals with specific characteristics or in particular environments. However, obtaining and leveraging such annotations can be challenging. In this work, we show how to leverage rich character and film annotations to personalise language models in a scalable manner. Our best model can reduce perplexity by up to 6.5% compared to a parameter-matched language model. Our approach performs on par with speaker-specific fine-tuning when the fine-tuning data (i.e. past dialogue) for individual speakers is available. On top of that, it also generalises well to a scenario with no such data, relying on combinations of demographic characteristics expressed via metadata. Our findings are consistent across two corpora, one of which is also a contribution of this paper: Cornell-rich contains rich manual annotations for 863 speaking characters from the Cornell Movie Dialog Corpus, including features such as characteristic quotes and character descriptions, along with six automatically extracted metadata features for over 95% of the featured films. Finally, we also present a cost-benefit analysis highlighting which annotations are most cost-effective in reducing perplexity.

Despite increasingly fluent, relevant, and coherent language generation, major gaps remain between how humans and machines use language. We argue that a key dimension that is missing from our understanding of language models (LMs) is the model's ability to interpret and generate expressions of uncertainty. Whether it be the weatherperson announcing a chance of rain or a doctor giving a diagnosis, information is often not black-and-white and expressions of uncertainty provide nuance to support human-decision making. The increasing deployment of LMs in the wild motivates us to investigate whether LMs are capable of interpreting expressions of uncertainty and how LMs' behaviors change when learning to emit their own expressions of uncertainty. When injecting expressions of uncertainty into prompts (e.g., "I think the answer is..."), we discover that GPT3's generations vary upwards of 80% in accuracy based on the expression used. We analyze the linguistic characteristics of these expressions and find a drop in accuracy when naturalistic expressions of certainty are present. We find similar effects when teaching models to emit their own expressions of uncertainty, where model calibration suffers when teaching models to emit certainty rather than uncertainty. Together, these results highlight the challenges of building LMs that interpret and generate trustworthy expressions of uncertainty.

Trainable evaluation metrics for machine translation (MT) exhibit strong correlation with human judgements, but they are often hard to interpret and might produce unreliable scores under noisy or out-of-domain data. Recent work has attempted to mitigate this with simple uncertainty quantification techniques (Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles), however these techniques (as we show) are limited in several ways -- for example, they are unable to distinguish between different kinds of uncertainty, and they are time and memory consuming. In this paper, we propose more powerful and efficient uncertainty predictors for MT evaluation, and we assess their ability to target different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To this end, we develop and compare training objectives for the COMET metric to enhance it with an uncertainty prediction output, including heteroscedastic regression, divergence minimization, and direct uncertainty prediction. Our experiments show improved results on uncertainty prediction for the WMT metrics task datasets, with a substantial reduction in computational costs. Moreover, they demonstrate the ability of these predictors to address specific uncertainty causes in MT evaluation, such as low quality references and out-of-domain data.

Multimodal semantic understanding often has to deal with uncertainty, which means the obtained messages tend to refer to multiple targets. Such uncertainty is problematic for our interpretation, including inter- and intra-modal uncertainty. Little effort has studied the modeling of this uncertainty, particularly in pre-training on unlabeled datasets and fine-tuning in task-specific downstream datasets. In this paper, we project the representations of all modalities as probabilistic distributions via a Probability Distribution Encoder (PDE) by utilizing sequence-level interactions. Compared to the existing deterministic methods, such uncertainty modeling can convey richer multimodal semantic information and more complex relationships. Furthermore, we integrate uncertainty modeling with popular pre-training frameworks and propose suitable pre-training tasks: Distribution-based Vision-Language Contrastive learning (D-VLC), Distribution-based Masked Language Modeling (D-MLM), and Distribution-based Image-Text Matching (D-ITM). The fine-tuned models are applied to challenging downstream tasks, including image-text retrieval, visual question answering, visual reasoning, and visual entailment, and achieve state-of-the-art results.

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring intermediate steps that might dramatically impact the outcome. We hypothesize that there exist key forking tokens, such that re-sampling the system at those specific tokens, but not others, leads to very different outcomes. To test this empirically, we develop a novel approach to representing uncertainty dynamics across individual tokens of text generation, and applying statistical models to test our hypothesis. Our approach is highly flexible: it can be applied to any dataset and any LLM, without fine tuning or accessing model weights. We use our method to analyze LLM responses on 7 different tasks across 4 domains, spanning a wide range of typical use cases. We find many examples of forking tokens, including surprising ones such as punctuation marks, suggesting that LLMs are often just a single token away from saying something very different.

In question-answering tasks, determining when to trust the outputs is crucial to the alignment of large language models (LLMs). Kuhn et al. (2023) introduces semantic entropy as a measure of uncertainty, by incorporating linguistic invariances from the same meaning. It primarily relies on setting threshold to measure the level of semantic equivalence relation. We propose a more nuanced framework that extends beyond such thresholding by developing a Shapley-based uncertainty metric that captures the continuous nature of semantic relationships. We establish three fundamental properties that characterize valid uncertainty metrics and prove that our Shapley uncertainty satisfies these criteria. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our Shapley uncertainty more accurately predicts LLM performance in question-answering and other datasets, compared to similar baseline measures.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

This paper investigates the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the context of understanding their own knowledge and measuring their uncertainty. We argue this is an important feature for mitigating hallucinations. Specifically, we focus on addressing known-unknown questions, characterized by high uncertainty due to the absence of definitive answers. To facilitate our study, we collect a dataset with new Known-Unknown Questions (KUQ) and propose a novel categorization scheme to elucidate the sources of uncertainty. Subsequently, we assess the LLMs' ability to differentiate between known and unknown questions and classify them accordingly. Moreover, we evaluate the quality of their answers in an Open-Ended QA setting. To quantify the uncertainty expressed in the answers, we create a semantic evaluation method that measures the model's accuracy in expressing uncertainty between known vs unknown questions.

With the widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to various domains, concerns regarding the trustworthiness of LLMs in safety-critical scenarios have been raised, due to their unpredictable tendency to hallucinate and generate misinformation. Existing LLMs do not have an inherent functionality to provide the users with an uncertainty/confidence metric for each response it generates, making it difficult to evaluate trustworthiness. Although several studies aim to develop uncertainty quantification methods for LLMs, they have fundamental limitations, such as being restricted to classification tasks, requiring additional training and data, considering only lexical instead of semantic information, and being prompt-wise but not response-wise. A new framework is proposed in this paper to address these issues. Semantic density extracts uncertainty/confidence information for each response from a probability distribution perspective in semantic space. It has no restriction on task types and is "off-the-shelf" for new models and tasks. Experiments on seven state-of-the-art LLMs, including the latest Llama 3 and Mixtral-8x22B models, on four free-form question-answering benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance and robustness of semantic density compared to prior approaches.

Large multi-modal language models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, making well-calibrated uncertainty essential. Traditional Bayesian methods approximate posteriors over all model weights, which becomes intractable for modern large models. For this reason, recent work instead considers Bayesian low-rank adaptation to enable tractable posterior approximation. Due to a lack of a standardized benchmark to evaluate these approaches, it remains unclear where these methods provide meaningful benefits. To fill this gap, we introduce Bayesian Adaptation Gym (BAG), a benchmark for the Bayesian adaptation of multi-modal language models. BAG provides reference implementations of classic Bayesian baselines and state-of-the-art adaptation methods, along with a multi-modal dataset and task suite designed to probe calibration, robustness under distribution shift, and decision-making under uncertainty via active learning. Using BAG, we conduct and report extensive experiments across model sizes, datasets, and tasks to highlight the successes and failures of current Bayesian adaptation approaches. To enable further research, BAG is fully open source: https://github.com/SRI-CSL/BayesAdapt.

Text-to-speech models trained on large-scale datasets have demonstrated impressive in-context learning capabilities and naturalness. However, control of speaker identity and style in these models typically requires conditioning on reference speech recordings, limiting creative applications. Alternatively, natural language prompting of speaker identity and style has demonstrated promising results and provides an intuitive method of control. However, reliance on human-labeled descriptions prevents scaling to large datasets. Our work bridges the gap between these two approaches. We propose a scalable method for labeling various aspects of speaker identity, style, and recording conditions. We then apply this method to a 45k hour dataset, which we use to train a speech language model. Furthermore, we propose simple methods for increasing audio fidelity, significantly outperforming recent work despite relying entirely on found data. Our results demonstrate high-fidelity speech generation in a diverse range of accents, prosodic styles, channel conditions, and acoustic conditions, all accomplished with a single model and intuitive natural language conditioning. Audio samples can be heard at https://text-description-to-speech.com/.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important technique for ensuring the trustworthiness of LLMs, given their tendency to hallucinate. Existing state-of-the-art UQ approaches for free-form generation rely heavily on sampling, which incurs high computational cost and variance. In this work, we propose the first gradient-based UQ method for free-form generation, SemGrad, which is sampling-free and computationally efficient. Unlike prior gradient-based methods developed for classification tasks that operates in parameter space, we propose to consider gradients in semantic space. Our method builds on the key intuition that a confident LLM should maintain stable output distributions under semantically equivalent input perturbations. We interpret the stability as the gradients in semantic space and introduce a Semantic Preservation Score (SPS) to identify embeddings that best capture semantics, with respect to which gradients are computed. We further propose HybridGrad, which combines the strengths of SemGrad and parameter gradients. Experiments demonstrate that both of our methods provide efficient and effective uncertainty estimates, achieving superior performance than state-of-the-art methods, particularly in settings with multiple valid responses.

A significant use case of instruction-finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) is to solve question-answering tasks interactively. In this setting, an LLM agent is tasked with making a prediction by sequentially querying relevant information from the user, as opposed to a single-turn conversation. This paper explores sequential querying strategies that aim to minimize the expected number of queries. One such strategy is Information Pursuit (IP), a greedy algorithm that at each iteration selects the query that maximizes information gain or equivalently minimizes uncertainty. However, obtaining accurate estimates of mutual information or conditional entropy for LLMs is very difficult in practice due to over- or under-confident LLM probabilities, which leads to suboptimal query selection and predictive performance. To better estimate the uncertainty at each iteration, we propose Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP), an alternative approach to sequential information gain based on conformal prediction sets. More specifically, C-IP leverages a relationship between prediction sets and conditional entropy at each iteration to estimate uncertainty based on the average size of conformal prediction sets. In contrast to conditional entropy, we find that conformal prediction sets are a distribution-free and robust method of measuring uncertainty. Experiments with 20 Questions show that C-IP obtains better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains compared to previous approaches to IP and uncertainty-based chain-of-thought methods. Furthermore, extending to an interactive medical setting between a doctor and a patient on the MediQ dataset, C-IP achieves competitive performance with direct single-turn prediction while offering greater interpretability.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) improves correctness of Question Answering (QA) and addresses hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), yet greatly increase computational costs. Besides, RAG is not always needed as may introduce irrelevant information. Recent adaptive retrieval methods integrate LLMs' intrinsic knowledge with external information appealing to LLM self-knowledge, but they often neglect efficiency evaluations and comparisons with uncertainty estimation techniques. We bridge this gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of 35 adaptive retrieval methods, including 8 recent approaches and 27 uncertainty estimation techniques, across 6 datasets using 10 metrics for QA performance, self-knowledge, and efficiency. Our findings show that uncertainty estimation techniques often outperform complex pipelines in terms of efficiency and self-knowledge, while maintaining comparable QA performance.

In many applications of LLMs, natural language responses often have an underlying structure such as representing discrete labels, numerical values, or graphs. Yet, existing decoding and uncertainty estimation methods operate only in language space and largely disregard structural information. We address this by modeling LLM outputs directly in a task-dependent latent structure. By equipping this structure with a dissimilarity measure, we can compute Bayes-optimal responses. These are not selected from sampled generations but are newly synthesized by combining individual responses in the latent space. Across different tasks, Bayes-optimal responses consistently outperform standard decoding methods like beam search. Moreover, quantifying uncertainty via the induced Bayesian risk captures variations in terms of the latent structure and improves alignment with output quality and correctness. Our decision-theoretic framework is applicable to any problem that admits a latent response structure and enables reliable task-aware LLM predictions.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a perspective approach to detecting Large Language Model (LLM) hallucinations and low quality output. In this work, we address one of the challenges of UQ in generation tasks that arises from the conditional dependency between the generation steps of an LLM. We propose to learn this dependency from data. We train a regression model, which target variable is the gap between the conditional and the unconditional generation confidence. During LLM inference, we use this learned conditional dependency model to modulate the uncertainty of the current generation step based on the uncertainty of the previous step. Our experimental evaluation on nine datasets and three LLMs shows that the proposed method is highly effective for uncertainty quantification, achieving substantial improvements over rivaling approaches.

We describe a neural network-based system for text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis that is able to generate speech audio in the voice of many different speakers, including those unseen during training. Our system consists of three independently trained components: (1) a speaker encoder network, trained on a speaker verification task using an independent dataset of noisy speech from thousands of speakers without transcripts, to generate a fixed-dimensional embedding vector from seconds of reference speech from a target speaker; (2) a sequence-to-sequence synthesis network based on Tacotron 2, which generates a mel spectrogram from text, conditioned on the speaker embedding; (3) an auto-regressive WaveNet-based vocoder that converts the mel spectrogram into a sequence of time domain waveform samples. We demonstrate that the proposed model is able to transfer the knowledge of speaker variability learned by the discriminatively-trained speaker encoder to the new task, and is able to synthesize natural speech from speakers that were not seen during training. We quantify the importance of training the speaker encoder on a large and diverse speaker set in order to obtain the best generalization performance. Finally, we show that randomly sampled speaker embeddings can be used to synthesize speech in the voice of novel speakers dissimilar from those used in training, indicating that the model has learned a high quality speaker representation.

Neural NLP models are often miscalibrated, assigning high confidence to incorrect predictions, which undermines selective prediction and high-stakes deployment. Post-hoc calibration methods adjust output probabilities but leave internal computation unchanged, while ensemble and Bayesian approaches improve uncertainty at substantial training or storage cost. We propose UAT-LITE, an inference-time framework that makes self-attention uncertainty-aware using approximate Bayesian inference via Monte Carlo dropout in pretrained transformer classifiers. Token-level epistemic uncertainty is estimated from stochastic forward passes and used to modulate self-attention during contextualization, without modifying pretrained weights or training objectives. We additionally introduce a layerwise variance decomposition to diagnose how predictive uncertainty accumulates across transformer depth. Across the SQuAD 2.0 answerability, MNLI, and SST-2, UAT-LITE reduces Expected Calibration Error by approximately 20% on average relative to a fine-tuned BERT-base baseline while preserving task accuracy, and improves selective prediction and robustness under distribution shift.

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by LLMs, have also raised severe concerns for the trustworthiness of LLMs', especially in safety-, security- and reliability-sensitive scenarios, potentially hindering real-world adoptions. While uncertainty estimation has shown its potential for interpreting the prediction risks made by general machine learning (ML) models, little is known about whether and to what extent it can help explore an LLM's capabilities and counteract its undesired behavior. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we initiate an exploratory study on the risk assessment of LLMs from the lens of uncertainty. In particular, we experiment with twelve uncertainty estimation methods and four LLMs on four prominent natural language processing (NLP) tasks to investigate to what extent uncertainty estimation techniques could help characterize the prediction risks of LLMs. Our findings validate the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation for revealing LLMs' uncertain/non-factual predictions. In addition to general NLP tasks, we extensively conduct experiments with four LLMs for code generation on two datasets. We find that uncertainty estimation can potentially uncover buggy programs generated by LLMs. Insights from our study shed light on future design and development for reliable LLMs, facilitating further research toward enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs.

Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though natural language is a powerful medium for this purpose, large language models (LLMs) and existing fine-tuning algorithms lack mechanisms for strategically gathering information to refine their own understanding of the latent entity. To harness the generalization power and world knowledge of LLMs in developing effective information-gathering strategies, we propose an adaptive elicitation framework that actively reduces uncertainty on the latent entity. Since probabilistic modeling of an abstract latent entity is difficult, our framework adopts a predictive view of uncertainty, using a meta-learned language model to simulate future observations and enable scalable uncertainty quantification over complex natural language. Through autoregressive forward simulation, our model quantifies how new questions reduce epistemic uncertainty, enabling the development of sophisticated information-gathering strategies to choose the most informative next queries. In experiments on the 20 questions game, dynamic opinion polling, and adaptive student assessment, our method consistently outperforms baselines in identifying critical unknowns and improving downstream predictions, illustrating the promise of strategic information gathering in natural language settings.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.

This paper proposes attentive statistics pooling for deep speaker embedding in text-independent speaker verification. In conventional speaker embedding, frame-level features are averaged over all the frames of a single utterance to form an utterance-level feature. Our method utilizes an attention mechanism to give different weights to different frames and generates not only weighted means but also weighted standard deviations. In this way, it can capture long-term variations in speaker characteristics more effectively. An evaluation on the NIST SRE 2012 and the VoxCeleb data sets shows that it reduces equal error rates (EERs) from the conventional method by 7.5% and 8.1%, respectively.

Modeling the errors of a speech recognizer can help simulate errorful recognized speech data from plain text, which has proven useful for tasks like discriminative language modeling, improving robustness of NLP systems, where limited or even no audio data is available at train time. Previous work typically considered replicating behavior of GMM-HMM based systems, but the behavior of more modern posterior-based neural network acoustic models is not the same and requires adjustments to the error prediction model. In this work, we extend a prior phonetic confusion based model for predicting speech recognition errors in two ways: first, we introduce a sampling-based paradigm that better simulates the behavior of a posterior-based acoustic model. Second, we investigate replacing the confusion matrix with a sequence-to-sequence model in order to introduce context dependency into the prediction. We evaluate the error predictors in two ways: first by predicting the errors made by a Switchboard ASR system on unseen data (Fisher), and then using that same predictor to estimate the behavior of an unrelated cloud-based ASR system on a novel task. Sampling greatly improves predictive accuracy within a 100-guess paradigm, while the sequence model performs similarly to the confusion matrix.

Recent multi-modal Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-4o have demonstrated strong capabilities of direct speech interaction. However, the lack of specialized and comprehensive benchmarks for end-to-end speech LLM evaluation hinders optimizing the user experience of Audio LLMs in real-world applications. Existing evaluation methods often adapt text-based benchmarks, overlooking speech's unique characteristics and challenges, including prosody, homophones, stuttering, and differing user expectations. Here, we present a novel approach to thoroughly evaluate LLMs in practical speech conversations. We systematically curate real-world chat data relevant to spoken scenarios, introduce diversity in speaker attributes and acoustic conditions, and augment the dataset with speech-specific phenomena. We further design a query-aware evaluation method to use customized evaluation checklists and prompts to enhance the accuracy of automatic evaluation. We conduct comprehensive testing and detailed analysis of various mainstream speech models, revealing significant differences in model performance across different speech scenarios. The use of query-aware evaluation further enables a finer-grained assessment under various speech-specific scenarios. Our benchmark can provide valuable insights for speech model development and evaluation.

Speaker modeling is essential for many related tasks, such as speaker recognition and speaker diarization. The dominant modeling approach is fixed-dimensional vector representation, i.e., speaker embedding. This paper introduces a research and production oriented speaker embedding learning toolkit, Wespeaker. Wespeaker contains the implementation of scalable data management, state-of-the-art speaker embedding models, loss functions, and scoring back-ends, with highly competitive results achieved by structured recipes which were adopted in the winning systems in several speaker verification challenges. The application to other downstream tasks such as speaker diarization is also exhibited in the related recipe. Moreover, CPU- and GPU-compatible deployment codes are integrated for production-oriented development. The toolkit is publicly available at https://github.com/wenet-e2e/wespeaker.

Several neural-based metrics have been recently proposed to evaluate machine translation quality. However, all of them resort to point estimates, which provide limited information at segment level. This is made worse as they are trained on noisy, biased and scarce human judgements, often resulting in unreliable quality predictions. In this paper, we introduce uncertainty-aware MT evaluation and analyze the trustworthiness of the predicted quality. We combine the COMET framework with two uncertainty estimation methods, Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles, to obtain quality scores along with confidence intervals. We compare the performance of our uncertainty-aware MT evaluation methods across multiple language pairs from the QT21 dataset and the WMT20 metrics task, augmented with MQM annotations. We experiment with varying numbers of references and further discuss the usefulness of uncertainty-aware quality estimation (without references) to flag possibly critical translation mistakes.

A speaker verification (SV) system offers an authentication service designed to confirm whether a given speech sample originates from a specific speaker. This technology has paved the way for various personalized applications that cater to individual preferences. A noteworthy challenge faced by SV systems is their ability to perform consistently across a range of emotional spectra. Most existing models exhibit high error rates when dealing with emotional utterances compared to neutral ones. Consequently, this phenomenon often leads to missing out on speech of interest. This issue primarily stems from the limited availability of labeled emotional speech data, impeding the development of robust speaker representations that encompass diverse emotional states. To address this concern, we propose a novel approach employing the CycleGAN framework to serve as a data augmentation method. This technique synthesizes emotional speech segments for each specific speaker while preserving the unique vocal identity. Our experimental findings underscore the effectiveness of incorporating synthetic emotional data into the training process. The models trained using this augmented dataset consistently outperform the baseline models on the task of verifying speakers in emotional speech scenarios, reducing equal error rate by as much as 3.64% relative.

Automated evaluation of free-form outputs from large language models (LLMs) is challenging because many distinct answers can be equally valid. A common practice is to use LLMs themselves as judges, but the theoretical properties of this approach are not yet well understood. We show that a geometric framework that represents both judges and candidates as points on a probability simplex can provide helpful insight on what is or is not identifiable using LLM judges. Our theoretical analysis uncovers a "phase transition" in ranking identifiability: for binary scoring systems, true rankings are identifiable even with weak judges under mild assumptions, while rankings become non-identifiable for three or more scoring levels even with infinite data, absent additional prior knowledge. This non-identifiability highlights how uncertainty in rankings stems from not only aleatoric uncertainty (i.e., inherent stochasticity in the data) but also epistemic uncertainty regarding which assumptions hold, an aspect that has received limited attention until now. To integrate both types of uncertainty, we use Bayesian inference to encode assumptions as priors and conduct sensitivity analysis of ranking estimates and credible intervals. Empirical evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that Bayesian inference yields more accurate rankings and substantially improves coverage rates. These results underscore the importance of taking a more holistic approach to uncertainty quantification when using LLMs as judges.

Large-scale Speech Language Models (SpeechLMs) have enabled voice assistants capable of understanding natural spoken queries and performing complex tasks. However, existing speech benchmarks primarily focus on isolated capabilities such as transcription, or question-answering, and do not systematically evaluate agentic scenarios encompassing multilingual and cultural understanding, as well as adversarial robustness. To address this, we introduce VoiceAgentBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate SpeechLMs in realistic spoken agentic settings. It comprises over 5,500 synthetic spoken queries, including dialogues grounded in Indian context, covering single-tool invocations, multi-tool workflows, multi-turn interactions, and safety evaluations. The benchmark supports English, Hindi, and 5 other Indian languages, reflecting real-world linguistic and cultural diversity. We simulate speaker variability using a novel sampling algorithm that selects audios for TTS voice conversion based on its speaker embeddings, maximizing acoustic and speaker diversity. Our evaluation measures tool selection accuracy, structural consistency, and the correctness of tool invocations, including adversarial robustness. Our experiments reveal significant gaps in contextual tool orchestration tasks, Indic generalization, and adversarial robustness, exposing critical limitations of current SpeechLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced energy consumption. However, these SLMs often generate inaccurate responses when handling complex queries. One promising solution is uncertainty-based SLM routing, offloading high-stakes queries to stronger LLMs when resulting in low-confidence responses on SLM. This follows the principle of "If you lack confidence, seek stronger support" to enhance reliability. Relying on more powerful LLMs is yet effective but increases invocation costs. Therefore, striking a routing balance between efficiency and efficacy remains a critical challenge. Additionally, efficiently generalizing the routing strategy to new datasets remains under-explored. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive investigation into benchmarking and generalization of uncertainty-driven routing strategies from SLMs to LLMs over 1500+ settings. Our findings highlight: First, uncertainty-correctness alignment in different uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods significantly impacts routing performance. Second, uncertainty distributions depend more on both the specific SLM and the chosen UQ method, rather than downstream data. Building on the insight, we propose a calibration data construction instruction pipeline and open-source a constructed hold-out set to enhance routing generalization on new downstream scenarios. The experimental results indicate calibration data effectively bootstraps routing performance without any new data.

Active learning is the iterative construction of a classification model through targeted labeling, enabling significant labeling cost savings. As most research on active learning has been carried out before transformer-based language models ("transformers") became popular, despite its practical importance, comparably few papers have investigated how transformers can be combined with active learning to date. This can be attributed to the fact that using state-of-the-art query strategies for transformers induces a prohibitive runtime overhead, which effectively nullifies, or even outweighs the desired cost savings. For this reason, we revisit uncertainty-based query strategies, which had been largely outperformed before, but are particularly suited in the context of fine-tuning transformers. In an extensive evaluation, we connect transformers to experiments from previous research, assessing their performance on five widely used text classification benchmarks. For active learning with transformers, several other uncertainty-based approaches outperform the well-known prediction entropy query strategy, thereby challenging its status as most popular uncertainty baseline in active learning for text classification.

In this paper, we evaluate the capability of transformer-based language models in making inferences over uncertain text that includes uncertain rules of reasoning. We cover both Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) and generative Large Language Models (LLMs). Our evaluation results show that both generations of language models struggle with reasoning over uncertain text. We propose a novel end-to-end fine-tuning approach, Probabilistic Constraint Training (PCT), that utilizes probabilistic logical rules as constraints in the fine-tuning phase without relying on these rules in the inference stage. To assess the effectiveness of PCT, we utilize the related corpora and, additionally, create a new and more challenging benchmark that, unlike the previous ones, uses instance-specific rules. Our study demonstrates that PCT improves the transformer-based language model's intrinsic reasoning and makes their probabilistic logical reasoning process more explicit and explainable. Furthermore, PCT equips these models to effectively handle novel situations, including higher reasoning depth, new domains, and complex probabilistic structures.

Generative video models demonstrate impressive text-to-video capabilities, spurring widespread adoption in many real-world applications. However, like large language models (LLMs), video generation models tend to hallucinate, producing plausible videos even when they are factually wrong. Although uncertainty quantification (UQ) of LLMs has been extensively studied in prior work, no UQ method for video models exists, raising critical safety concerns. To our knowledge, this paper represents the first work towards quantifying the uncertainty of video models. We present a framework for uncertainty quantification of generative video models, consisting of: (i) a metric for evaluating the calibration of video models based on robust rank correlation estimation with no stringent modeling assumptions; (ii) a black-box UQ method for video models (termed S-QUBED), which leverages latent modeling to rigorously decompose predictive uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic components; and (iii) a UQ dataset to facilitate benchmarking calibration in video models. By conditioning the generation task in the latent space, we disentangle uncertainty arising due to vague task specifications from that arising from lack of knowledge. Through extensive experiments on benchmark video datasets, we demonstrate that S-QUBED computes calibrated total uncertainty estimates that are negatively correlated with the task accuracy and effectively computes the aleatoric and epistemic constituents.

We present persona-based models for handling the issue of speaker consistency in neural response generation. A speaker model encodes personas in distributed embeddings that capture individual characteristics such as background information and speaking style. A dyadic speaker-addressee model captures properties of interactions between two interlocutors. Our models yield qualitative performance improvements in both perplexity and BLEU scores over baseline sequence-to-sequence models, with similar gains in speaker consistency as measured by human judges.

Large language models (LLMs) excel in many tasks but struggle to accurately quantify uncertainty in their generated responses. This limitation makes it challenging to detect misinformation and ensure reliable decision-making. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for LLMs are primarily prompt-wise rather than response-wise, often requiring multiple response samples, which incurs high computational costs. Moreover, LLMs have been shown to be overconfident, particularly when using reasoning steps to derive their answers. In this work, we propose CoT-UQ, a response-wise UQ framework that integrates LLMs' inherent reasoning capabilities through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) into the UQ process. CoT-UQ captures critical information during inference by extracting keywords from each reasoning step and assessing their importance to the final answer. This key reasoning information is then aggregated to produce a final uncertainty estimate. We conduct extensive experiments based on LLaMA Family with model sizes varying from 8B to 13B across logical and mathematical reasoning tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that CoT-UQ significantly outperforms existing UQ methods, achieving an average improvement of 5.9% AUROC compared to current UQ methods. The code is available at: https://github.com/ZBox1005/CoT-UQ.

Annotating speaker attributes from text is inherently ambiguous, particularly in multilingual settings where demographic and social cues are implicit and culturally variable. We propose a human-large language model (LLM) collaborative re-annotation framework for stabilizing multilingual speaker-attribute labels under practical resource constraints. Starting from a noisy corpus, we use LLMs to surface recurring annotation rationales through iterative interaction with experts, and apply disagreement-focused sampling for targeted re-annotation. Using this framework, we construct WhoSaidIt, a multilingual dataset covering nine speaker-attribute labels. We quantify divergence between original and revised annotations, benchmark recent LLMs, and analyze the effect of explicit rationales on model behavior. Our results reveal substantial cross-lingual differences in annotation decisions and demonstrate both the strengths and limitations of LLMs in speaker-attribute classification.

We introduce a method to measure uncertainty in large language models. For tasks like question answering, it is essential to know when we can trust the natural language outputs of foundation models. We show that measuring uncertainty in natural language is challenging because of "semantic equivalence" -- different sentences can mean the same thing. To overcome these challenges we introduce semantic entropy -- an entropy which incorporates linguistic invariances created by shared meanings. Our method is unsupervised, uses only a single model, and requires no modifications to off-the-shelf language models. In comprehensive ablation studies we show that the semantic entropy is more predictive of model accuracy on question answering data sets than comparable baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve external evidence indiscriminately, overlooking the model's internal knowledge and potentially introducing irrelevant noise. Moreover, current systems lack targeted mechanisms to resolve specific uncertainties in the model's reasoning. Inspired by how humans fact-check, we argue that LLMs should adaptively decide whether to rely on internal knowledge or initiate retrieval based on their confidence in a given claim. We introduce Probabilistic Certainty and Consistency (PCC), a framework that estimates factual confidence by jointly modeling an LLM's probabilistic certainty and reasoning consistency. These confidence signals enable an adaptive verification strategy: the model answers directly when confident, triggers targeted retrieval when uncertain or inconsistent, and escalates to deep search when ambiguity is high. Our confidence-guided routing mechanism ensures that retrieval is invoked only when necessary, improving both efficiency and reliability. Extensive experiments across three challenging benchmarks show that PCC achieves better uncertainty quantification than verbalized confidence and consistently outperforms strong LLM-based fact-checking baselines. Furthermore, we demonstrate that PCC generalizes well across various LLMs.

We present evidence of substantial benefit from efficient exploration in gathering human feedback to improve large language models. In our experiments, an agent sequentially generates queries while fitting a reward model to the feedback received. Our best-performing agent generates queries using double Thompson sampling, with uncertainty represented by an epistemic neural network. Our results demonstrate that efficient exploration enables high levels of performance with far fewer queries. Further, both uncertainty estimation and the choice of exploration scheme play critical roles.

We present UncertaintyRAG, a novel approach for long-context Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) that utilizes Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)-based span uncertainty to estimate similarity between text chunks. This span uncertainty enhances model calibration, improving robustness and mitigating semantic inconsistencies introduced by random chunking. Leveraging this insight, we propose an efficient unsupervised learning technique to train the retrieval model, alongside an effective data sampling and scaling strategy. UncertaintyRAG outperforms baselines by 2.03% on LLaMA-2-7B, achieving state-of-the-art results while using only 4% of the training data compared to other advanced open-source retrieval models under distribution shift settings. Our method demonstrates strong calibration through span uncertainty, leading to improved generalization and robustness in long-context RAG tasks. Additionally, UncertaintyRAG provides a lightweight retrieval model that can be integrated into any large language model with varying context window lengths, without the need for fine-tuning, showcasing the flexibility of our approach.

A primary challenge when deploying speaker recognition systems in real-world applications is performance degradation caused by environmental mismatch. We propose a diffusion-based method that takes speaker embeddings extracted from a pre-trained speaker recognition model and generates refined embeddings. For training, our approach progressively adds Gaussian noise to both clean and noisy speaker embeddings extracted from clean and noisy speech, respectively, via forward process of a diffusion model, and then reconstructs them to clean embeddings in the reverse process. While inferencing, all embeddings are regenerated via diffusion process. Our method needs neither speaker label nor any modification to the existing speaker recognition pipeline. Experiments on evaluation sets simulating environment mismatch scenarios show that our method can improve recognition accuracy by up to 19.6% over baseline models while retaining performance on conventional scenarios. We publish our code here https://github.com/kaistmm/seed-pytorch

Long-context inference remains challenging for large language models due to attention dilution and out-of-distribution degradation. Context selection mitigates this limitation by attending to a subset of key-value cache entries, yet most methods allocate a fixed context budget throughout decoding despite highly non-uniform token-level contextual demands. To address this issue, we propose Uncertainty-Triggered Adaptive Context Allocation (UT-ACA), an inference-time framework that dynamically adjusts the context window based on token-wise uncertainty. UT-ACA learns an uncertainty detector that combines semantic embeddings with logit-based confidence while accounting for uncertainty accumulation across decoding steps. When insufficient evidence is indicated, UT-ACA selectively rolls back, expands the context window, and regenerates the token with additional support. Experiments show that UT-ACA substantially reduces average context usage while preserving generation quality in long-context settings.

We propose semantic entropy probes (SEPs), a cheap and reliable method for uncertainty quantification in Large Language Models (LLMs). Hallucinations, which are plausible-sounding but factually incorrect and arbitrary model generations, present a major challenge to the practical adoption of LLMs. Recent work by Farquhar et al. (2024) proposes semantic entropy (SE), which can detect hallucinations by estimating uncertainty in the space semantic meaning for a set of model generations. However, the 5-to-10-fold increase in computation cost associated with SE computation hinders practical adoption. To address this, we propose SEPs, which directly approximate SE from the hidden states of a single generation. SEPs are simple to train and do not require sampling multiple model generations at test time, reducing the overhead of semantic uncertainty quantification to almost zero. We show that SEPs retain high performance for hallucination detection and generalize better to out-of-distribution data than previous probing methods that directly predict model accuracy. Our results across models and tasks suggest that model hidden states capture SE, and our ablation studies give further insights into the token positions and model layers for which this is the case.

In this paper we present a data-driven, integrated approach to speaker verification, which maps a test utterance and a few reference utterances directly to a single score for verification and jointly optimizes the system's components using the same evaluation protocol and metric as at test time. Such an approach will result in simple and efficient systems, requiring little domain-specific knowledge and making few model assumptions. We implement the idea by formulating the problem as a single neural network architecture, including the estimation of a speaker model on only a few utterances, and evaluate it on our internal "Ok Google" benchmark for text-dependent speaker verification. The proposed approach appears to be very effective for big data applications like ours that require highly accurate, easy-to-maintain systems with a small footprint.

Large language models (LLMs) are notorious for hallucinating, i.e., producing erroneous claims in their output. Such hallucinations can be dangerous, as occasional factual inaccuracies in the generated text might be obscured by the rest of the output being generally factual, making it extremely hard for the users to spot them. Current services that leverage LLMs usually do not provide any means for detecting unreliable generations. Here, we aim to bridge this gap. In particular, we propose a novel fact-checking and hallucination detection pipeline based on token-level uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty scores leverage information encapsulated in the output of a neural network or its layers to detect unreliable predictions, and we show that they can be used to fact-check the atomic claims in the LLM output. Moreover, we present a novel token-level uncertainty quantification method that removes the impact of uncertainty about what claim to generate on the current step and what surface form to use. Our method Claim Conditioned Probability (CCP) measures only the uncertainty of particular claim value expressed by the model. Experiments on the task of biography generation demonstrate strong improvements for CCP compared to the baselines for six different LLMs and three languages. Human evaluation reveals that the fact-checking pipeline based on uncertainty quantification is competitive with a fact-checking tool that leverages external knowledge.

The proliferation of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) from various institutions has highlighted the urgent need for comprehensive evaluation methods. However, current evaluation platforms, such as the widely recognized HuggingFace open LLM leaderboard, neglect a crucial aspect -- uncertainty, which is vital for thoroughly assessing LLMs. To bridge this gap, we introduce a new benchmarking approach for LLMs that integrates uncertainty quantification. Our examination involves eight LLMs (LLM series) spanning five representative natural language processing tasks. Additionally, we introduce an uncertainty-aware evaluation metric, UAcc, which takes into account both prediction accuracy and prediction uncertainty. Our findings reveal that: I) LLMs with higher accuracy may exhibit lower certainty; II) Larger-scale LLMs may display greater uncertainty compared to their smaller counterparts; and III) Instruction-finetuning tends to increase the uncertainty of LLMs. By taking uncertainty into account, our new UAcc metric can either amplify or diminish the relative improvement of one LLM over another and may even change the relative ranking of two LLMs. These results underscore the significance of incorporating uncertainty in the evaluation of LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate due to misaligned self-awareness, generating erroneous outputs when addressing queries beyond their knowledge boundaries. While existing approaches mitigate hallucinations via uncertainty estimation or query rejection, they suffer from computational inefficiency or sacrificed helpfulness. To address these issues, we propose the Explicit Knowledge Boundary Modeling (EKBM) framework, integrating fast and slow reasoning systems to harmonize reliability and usability. The framework first employs a fast-thinking model to generate confidence-labeled responses, enabling immediate use of high-confidence outputs. For uncertain predictions, a slow refinement model conducts targeted reasoning to improve accuracy. To align model behavior with our proposed object, we propose a hybrid training pipeline, enhancing self-awareness without degrading task performance. Evaluations on dialogue state tracking tasks demonstrate that EKBM achieves superior model reliability over uncertainty-based baselines. Further analysis reveals that refinement substantially boosts accuracy while maintaining low computational overhead. Our work establishes a scalable paradigm for advancing LLM reliability and balancing accuracy and practical utility in error-sensitive applications.

The goal of voice conversion is to transform source speech into a target voice, keeping the content unchanged. In this paper, we focus on self-supervised representation learning for voice conversion. Specifically, we compare discrete and soft speech units as input features. We find that discrete representations effectively remove speaker information but discard some linguistic content - leading to mispronunciations. As a solution, we propose soft speech units. To learn soft units, we predict a distribution over discrete speech units. By modeling uncertainty, soft units capture more content information, improving the intelligibility and naturalness of converted speech. Samples available at https://ubisoft-laforge.github.io/speech/soft-vc/. Code available at https://github.com/bshall/soft-vc/.

Vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP and SigLIP, have found remarkable success in classification, retrieval, and generative tasks. For this, VLMs deterministically map images and text descriptions to a joint latent space in which their similarity is assessed using the cosine similarity. However, a deterministic mapping of inputs fails to capture uncertainties over concepts arising from domain shifts when used in downstream tasks. In this work, we propose post-hoc uncertainty estimation in VLMs that does not require additional training. Our method leverages a Bayesian posterior approximation over the last layers in VLMs and analytically quantifies uncertainties over cosine similarities. We demonstrate its effectiveness for uncertainty quantification and support set selection in active learning. Compared to baselines, we obtain improved and well-calibrated predictive uncertainties, interpretable uncertainty estimates, and sample-efficient active learning. Our results show promise for safety-critical applications of large-scale models.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face practical barriers: logits are often hidden, multi-sampling is computationally expensive, and verbalized numerical uncertainty (e.g., giving a 0-100 score) deviates from natural communication. We revisit linguistic confidence (LC), where models express uncertainty through hedging language (e.g., probably, might), offering a lightweight and human-centered alternative. To advance this direction, we (1) release the first diverse, large-scale dataset of hedging expressions with human-annotated confidence scores, and (2) propose a lightweight mapper that converts hedges into confidence scores at near-zero cost. Building on these resources, we (3) conduct the first systematic study of LC across modern LLMs and QA benchmarks, revealing that while most LLMs underperform in expressing reliable LC, carefully designed prompting achieves competitive calibration and discriminability. Finally, we (4) introduce a fine-tuning framework that further improves LC reliability. Taken together, our work positions linguistic confidence as a scalable, efficient, and human-aligned approach to LLM uncertainty estimation, and calls for deeper exploration of this promising yet underexplored direction.

Bearing in mind the limited parametric knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) which supplies them with the relevant external knowledge has served as an approach to mitigate the issue of hallucinations to a certain extent. However, uniformly retrieving supporting context makes response generation source-inefficient, as triggering the retriever is not always necessary, or even inaccurate, when a model gets distracted by noisy retrieved content and produces an unhelpful answer. Motivated by these issues, we introduce Semantic Uncertainty Guided Adaptive Retrieval (SUGAR), where we leverage context-based entropy to actively decide whether to retrieve and to further determine between single-step and multi-step retrieval. Our empirical results show that selective retrieval guided by semantic uncertainty estimation improves the performance across diverse question answering tasks, as well as achieves a more efficient inference.

Sequential Recommenders generate recommendations based on users' historical interaction sequences. However, in practice, these collected sequences are often contaminated by noisy interactions, which significantly impairs recommendation performance. Accurately identifying such noisy interactions without additional information is particularly challenging due to the absence of explicit supervisory signals indicating noise. Large Language Models (LLMs), equipped with extensive open knowledge and semantic reasoning abilities, offer a promising avenue to bridge this information gap. However, employing LLMs for denoising in sequential recommendation presents notable challenges: 1) Direct application of pretrained LLMs may not be competent for the denoising task, frequently generating nonsensical responses; 2) Even after fine-tuning, the reliability of LLM outputs remains questionable, especially given the complexity of the denoising task and the inherent hallucinatory issue of LLMs. To tackle these challenges, we propose LLM4DSR, a tailored approach for denoising sequential recommendation using LLMs. We constructed a self-supervised fine-tuning task to activate LLMs' capabilities to identify noisy items and suggest replacements. Furthermore, we developed an uncertainty estimation module that ensures only high-confidence responses are utilized for sequence corrections. Remarkably, LLM4DSR is model-agnostic, allowing corrected sequences to be flexibly applied across various recommendation models. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of LLM4DSR over existing methods.

This paper describes the Microsoft end-to-end neural text to speech (TTS) system: DelightfulTTS for Blizzard Challenge 2021. The goal of this challenge is to synthesize natural and high-quality speech from text, and we approach this goal in two perspectives: The first is to directly model and generate waveform in 48 kHz sampling rate, which brings higher perception quality than previous systems with 16 kHz or 24 kHz sampling rate; The second is to model the variation information in speech through a systematic design, which improves the prosody and naturalness. Specifically, for 48 kHz modeling, we predict 16 kHz mel-spectrogram in acoustic model, and propose a vocoder called HiFiNet to directly generate 48 kHz waveform from predicted 16 kHz mel-spectrogram, which can better trade off training efficiency, modelling stability and voice quality. We model variation information systematically from both explicit (speaker ID, language ID, pitch and duration) and implicit (utterance-level and phoneme-level prosody) perspectives: 1) For speaker and language ID, we use lookup embedding in training and inference; 2) For pitch and duration, we extract the values from paired text-speech data in training and use two predictors to predict the values in inference; 3) For utterance-level and phoneme-level prosody, we use two reference encoders to extract the values in training, and use two separate predictors to predict the values in inference. Additionally, we introduce an improved Conformer block to better model the local and global dependency in acoustic model. For task SH1, DelightfulTTS achieves 4.17 mean score in MOS test and 4.35 in SMOS test, which indicates the effectiveness of our proposed system

We propose a lightweight and single-pass uncertainty quantification method for detecting hallucinations in Large Language Models. The method uses attention matrices to estimate uncertainty without requiring repeated sampling or external models. Specifically, we measure the Kullback-Leibler divergence between each attention head's distribution and a uniform reference distribution, and use these features in a logistic regression probe. Across multiple datasets, task types, and model families, attention divergence is highly predictive of answer correctness and performs competitively with existing uncertainty estimation methods. We find that this signal is concentrated in middle layers and on factual tokens such as named entities and numbers, suggesting that attention dynamics provides an efficient and interpretable white-box signal of model uncertainty.

State-of-the-art supervised NLP models achieve high accuracy but are also susceptible to failures on inputs from low-data regimes, such as domains that are not represented in training data. As an approximation to collecting ground-truth labels for the specific domain, we study the use of large language models (LLMs) for annotating inputs and improving the generalization of NLP models. Specifically, given a budget for LLM annotations, we present an algorithm for sampling the most informative inputs to annotate and retrain the NLP model. We find that popular active learning strategies such as uncertainty-based sampling do not work well. Instead, we propose a sampling strategy based on the difference in prediction scores between the base model and the finetuned NLP model, utilizing the fact that most NLP models are finetuned from a base model. Experiments with classification (semantic similarity) and ranking (semantic search) tasks show that our sampling strategy leads to significant gains in accuracy for both the training and target domains.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for large language models (LLMs) is a key building block for safety guardrails of daily LLM applications. Yet, even as LLM agents are increasingly deployed in highly complex tasks, most UQ research still centers on single-turn question-answering. We argue that UQ research must shift to realistic settings with interactive agents, and that a new principled framework for agent UQ is needed. This paper presents the first general formulation of agent UQ that subsumes broad classes of existing UQ setups. Under this formulation, we show that prior works implicitly treat LLM UQ as an uncertainty accumulation process, a viewpoint that breaks down for interactive agents in an open world. In contrast, we propose a novel perspective, a conditional uncertainty reduction process, that explicitly models reducible uncertainty over an agent's trajectory by highlighting "interactivity" of actions. From this perspective, we outline a conceptual framework to provide actionable guidance for designing UQ in LLM agent setups. Finally, we conclude with practical implications of the agent UQ in frontier LLM development and domain-specific applications, as well as open remaining problems.

We propose PromptTTS++, a prompt-based text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis system that allows control over speaker identity using natural language descriptions. To control speaker identity within the prompt-based TTS framework, we introduce the concept of speaker prompt, which describes voice characteristics (e.g., gender-neutral, young, old, and muffled) designed to be approximately independent of speaking style. Since there is no large-scale dataset containing speaker prompts, we first construct a dataset based on the LibriTTS-R corpus with manually annotated speaker prompts. We then employ a diffusion-based acoustic model with mixture density networks to model diverse speaker factors in the training data. Unlike previous studies that rely on style prompts describing only a limited aspect of speaker individuality, such as pitch, speaking speed, and energy, our method utilizes an additional speaker prompt to effectively learn the mapping from natural language descriptions to the acoustic features of diverse speakers. Our subjective evaluation results show that the proposed method can better control speaker characteristics than the methods without the speaker prompt. Audio samples are available at https://reppy4620.github.io/demo.promptttspp/.

The development of robust, multilingual speaker recognition systems is hindered by a lack of large-scale, publicly available and multilingual datasets, particularly for the read-speech style crucial for applications like anti-spoofing. To address this gap, we introduce the TidyVoice dataset derived from the Mozilla Common Voice corpus after mitigating its inherent speaker heterogeneity within the provided client IDs. TidyVoice currently contains training and test data from over 212,000 monolingual speakers (Tidy-M) and around 4,500 multilingual speakers (Tidy-X) from which we derive two distinct conditions. The Tidy-M condition contains target and non-target trials from monolingual speakers across 81 languages. The Tidy-X condition contains target and non-target trials from multilingual speakers in both same- and cross-language trials. We employ two architectures of ResNet models, achieving a 0.35% EER by fine-tuning on our comprehensive Tidy-M partition. Moreover, we show that this fine-tuning enhances the model's generalization, improving performance on unseen conversational interview data from the CANDOR corpus. The complete dataset, evaluation trials, and our models are publicly released to provide a new resource for the community.

In this paper, we cast the problem of task underspecification in causal terms, and develop a method for empirical measurement of spurious associations between gender and gender-neutral entities for unmodified large language models, detecting previously unreported spurious correlations. We then describe a lightweight method to exploit the resulting spurious associations for prediction task uncertainty classification, achieving over 90% accuracy on a Winogender Schemas challenge set. Finally, we generalize our approach to address a wider range of prediction tasks and provide open-source demos for each method described here.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Language Models (LMs) is crucial for improving their safety and reliability. Evaluations often use performance metrics like AUROC to assess how well UQ methods (e.g., negative sequence probabilities) correlate with task correctness functions (e.g., ROUGE-L). In this paper, we show that commonly used correctness functions bias UQ evaluations by inflating the performance of certain UQ methods. We evaluate 7 correctness functions -- from lexical-based and embedding-based metrics to LLM-as-a-judge approaches -- across 4 datasets x 4 models x 6 UQ methods. Our analysis reveals that length biases in the errors of these correctness functions distort UQ assessments by interacting with length biases in UQ methods. We identify LLM-as-a-judge approaches as among the least length-biased choices and hence a potential solution to mitigate these biases.

Annotating training data for sequence tagging of texts is usually very time-consuming. Recent advances in transfer learning for natural language processing in conjunction with active learning open the possibility to significantly reduce the necessary annotation budget. We are the first to thoroughly investigate this powerful combination for the sequence tagging task. We conduct an extensive empirical study of various Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods and Monte Carlo dropout options for deep pre-trained models in the active learning framework and find the best combinations for different types of models. Besides, we also demonstrate that to acquire instances during active learning, a full-size Transformer can be substituted with a distilled version, which yields better computational performance and reduces obstacles for applying deep active learning in practice.

With the increasing capabilities of large language models (LLMs), these high-performance models have achieved state-of-the-art results on a wide range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, the models' performance on commonly-used benchmark datasets often fails to accurately reflect their reliability and robustness when applied to real-world noisy data. To address these challenges, we propose a unified robustness evaluation framework based on the slot-filling task to systematically evaluate the dialogue understanding capability of LLMs in diverse input perturbation scenarios. Specifically, we construct a input perturbation evaluation dataset, Noise-LLM, which contains five types of single perturbation and four types of mixed perturbation data. Furthermore, we utilize a multi-level data augmentation method (character, word, and sentence levels) to construct a candidate data pool, and carefully design two ways of automatic task demonstration construction strategies (instance-level and entity-level) with various prompt templates. Our aim is to assess how well various robustness methods of LLMs perform in real-world noisy scenarios. The experiments have demonstrated that the current open-source LLMs generally achieve limited perturbation robustness performance. Based on these experimental observations, we make some forward-looking suggestions to fuel the research in this direction.

Adapting generic speech recognition models to specific individuals is a challenging problem due to the scarcity of personalized data. Recent works have proposed boosting the amount of training data using personalized text-to-speech synthesis. Here, we ask two fundamental questions about this strategy: when is synthetic data effective for personalization, and why is it effective in those cases? To address the first question, we adapt a state-of-the-art automatic speech recognition (ASR) model to target speakers from four benchmark datasets representative of different speaker types. We show that ASR personalization with synthetic data is effective in all cases, but particularly when (i) the target speaker is underrepresented in the global data, and (ii) the capacity of the global model is limited. To address the second question of why personalized synthetic data is effective, we use controllable speech synthesis to generate speech with varied styles and content. Surprisingly, we find that the text content of the synthetic data, rather than style, is important for speaker adaptation. These results lead us to propose a data selection strategy for ASR personalization based on speech content.

As LLM-as-a-Judge emerges as a new paradigm for assessing large language models (LLMs), concerns have been raised regarding the alignment, bias, and stability of LLM evaluators. While substantial work has focused on alignment and bias, little research has concentrated on the stability of LLM evaluators. In this paper, we conduct extensive experiments involving 9 widely used LLM evaluators across 2 different evaluation settings to investigate the uncertainty in model-based LLM evaluations. We pinpoint that LLM evaluators exhibit varying uncertainty based on model families and sizes. With careful comparative analyses, we find that employing special prompting strategies, whether during inference or post-training, can alleviate evaluation uncertainty to some extent. By utilizing uncertainty to enhance LLM's reliability and detection capability in Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) data, we further fine-tune an uncertainty-aware LLM evaluator named ConfiLM using a human-annotated fine-tuning set and assess ConfiLM's OOD evaluation ability on a manually designed test set sourced from the 2024 Olympics. Experimental results demonstrate that incorporating uncertainty as additional information during the fine-tuning phase can largely improve the model's evaluation performance in OOD scenarios. The code and data are released at: https://github.com/hasakiXie123/LLM-Evaluator-Uncertainty.

Can the relative performance of a pre-trained large multimodal model (LMM) be predicted without access to labels? As LMMs proliferate, it becomes increasingly important to develop efficient ways to choose between them when faced with new data or tasks. The usual approach does the equivalent of giving the models an exam and marking them. We opt to avoid marking and the associated labor of determining the ground-truth answers. Instead, we explore other signals elicited and ascertain how well the models know their own limits, evaluating the effectiveness of these signals at unsupervised model ranking. We evaluate 47 state-of-the-art LMMs (\eg, LLaVA) across 9 visual question answering benchmarks, analyzing how well uncertainty-based metrics can predict relative model performance. Our findings show that uncertainty scores derived from softmax distributions provide a robust and consistent basis for ranking models across various tasks. This facilitates the ranking of LMMs on unlabeled data, providing a practical approach for selecting models for diverse target domains without requiring manual annotation.