Daily Papers

Iterative preference optimization has recently become one of the de-facto training paradigms for large language models (LLMs), but the performance is still underwhelming due to too much noisy preference data yielded in the loop. To combat this issue, we present an Uncertainty-enhanced Preference Optimization (UPO) framework to make the LLM self-evolve with reliable feedback. The key idea is mitigating the noisy preference data derived from the current policy and reward models by performing pair-wise uncertainty estimation and judiciously reliable feedback sampling. To reach this goal, we thus introduce an estimator model, which incorporates Monte Carlo (MC) dropout in Bayesian neural network (BNN) to perform uncertainty estimation for the preference data derived from the LLM policy. Compared to the existing methods that directly filter generated responses based on the reward score, the estimator focuses on the model uncertainty in a pair-wise manner and effectively bypasses the confirmation bias problem of the reward model. Additionally, we also propose an uncertainty-enhanced self-evolution algorithm to improve the robustness of preference optimization and encourage the LLM to generate responses with both high reward and certainty. Extensive experiments over multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our framework substantially alleviates the noisy problem and improves the performance of iterative preference optimization.

Computer use agent is an emerging area in artificial intelligence that aims to operate the computers to achieve the user's tasks, which attracts a lot of attention from both industry and academia. However, the present agents' performance is far from being used. In this paper, we propose the Self-Evolution Agent (SEA) for computer use, and to develop this agent, we propose creative methods in data generation, reinforcement learning, and model enhancement. Specifically, we first propose an automatic pipeline to generate the verifiable trajectory for training. And then, we propose efficient step-wise reinforcement learning to alleviate the significant computational requirements for long-horizon training. In the end, we propose the enhancement method to merge the grounding and planning ability into one model without any extra training. Accordingly, based on our proposed innovation of data generation, training strategy, and enhancement, we get the Selfevolution Agent (SEA) for computer use with only 7B parameters, which outperforms models with the same number of parameters and has comparable performance to larger ones. We will make the models' weight and related codes open-source in the future.

Solving NP-hard problems traditionally relies on heuristics, yet manually designing effective heuristics for complex problems remains a significant challenge. While recent advancements like FunSearch have shown that large language models (LLMs) can be integrated into evolutionary algorithms (EAs) for heuristic design, their potential is hindered by limitations in balancing exploitation and exploration. We introduce Quality-Uncertainty Balanced Evolution (QUBE), a novel approach that enhances LLM+EA methods by redefining the priority criterion within the FunSearch framework. QUBE employs the Quality-Uncertainty Trade-off Criterion (QUTC), based on our proposed Uncertainty-Inclusive Quality metric, to evaluate and guide the evolutionary process. Through extensive experiments on challenging NP-complete problems, QUBE demonstrates significant performance improvements over FunSearch and baseline methods. Our code are available at https://github.com/zzjchen/QUBE\_code.

Heuristic design with large language models (LLMs) has emerged as a promising approach for tackling combinatorial optimization problems (COPs). However, existing approaches often rely on manually predefined evolutionary computation (EC) optimizers and single-task training schemes, which may constrain the exploration of diverse heuristic algorithms and hinder the generalization of the resulting heuristics. To address these issues, we propose Meta-Optimization of Heuristics (MoH), a novel framework that operates at the optimizer level, discovering effective optimizers through the principle of meta-learning. Specifically, MoH leverages LLMs to iteratively refine a meta-optimizer that autonomously constructs diverse optimizers through (self-)invocation, thereby eliminating the reliance on a predefined EC optimizer. These constructed optimizers subsequently evolve heuristics for downstream tasks, enabling broader heuristic exploration. Moreover, MoH employs a multi-task training scheme to promote its generalization capability. Experiments on classic COPs demonstrate that MoH constructs an effective and interpretable meta-optimizer, achieving state-of-the-art performance across various downstream tasks, particularly in cross-size settings.

We propose a new uncertainty estimator for gradient-free optimisation of black-box simulators using deep generative surrogate models. Optimisation of these simulators is especially challenging for stochastic simulators and higher dimensions. To address these issues, we utilise a deep generative surrogate approach to model the black box response for the entire parameter space. We then leverage this knowledge to estimate the proposed uncertainty based on the Wasserstein distance - the Wasserstein uncertainty. This approach is employed in a posterior agnostic gradient-free optimisation algorithm that minimises regret over the entire parameter space. A series of tests were conducted to demonstrate that our method is more robust to the shape of both the black box function and the stochastic response of the black box than state-of-the-art methods, such as efficient global optimisation with a deep Gaussian process surrogate.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

This paper claims that machine learning (ML) largely overlooks an important facet of general intelligence: robustness to a qualitatively unknown future in an open world. Such robustness relates to Knightian uncertainty (KU) in economics, i.e. uncertainty that cannot be quantified, which is excluded from consideration in ML's key formalisms. This paper aims to identify this blind spot, argue its importance, and catalyze research into addressing it, which we believe is necessary to create truly robust open-world AI. To help illuminate the blind spot, we contrast one area of ML, reinforcement learning (RL), with the process of biological evolution. Despite staggering ongoing progress, RL still struggles in open-world situations, often failing under unforeseen situations. For example, the idea of zero-shot transferring a self-driving car policy trained only in the US to the UK currently seems exceedingly ambitious. In dramatic contrast, biological evolution routinely produces agents that thrive within an open world, sometimes even to situations that are remarkably out-of-distribution (e.g. invasive species; or humans, who do undertake such zero-shot international driving). Interestingly, evolution achieves such robustness without explicit theory, formalisms, or mathematical gradients. We explore the assumptions underlying RL's typical formalisms, showing how they limit RL's engagement with the unknown unknowns characteristic of an ever-changing complex world. Further, we identify mechanisms through which evolutionary processes foster robustness to novel and unpredictable challenges, and discuss potential pathways to algorithmically embody them. The conclusion is that the intriguing remaining fragility of ML may result from blind spots in its formalisms, and that significant gains may result from direct confrontation with the challenge of KU.

This paper presents a groundbreaking self-improving interference management framework tailored for wireless communications, integrating deep learning with uncertainty quantification to enhance overall system performance. Our approach addresses the computational challenges inherent in traditional optimization-based algorithms by harnessing deep learning models to predict optimal interference management solutions. A significant breakthrough of our framework is its acknowledgment of the limitations inherent in data-driven models, particularly in scenarios not adequately represented by the training dataset. To overcome these challenges, we propose a method for uncertainty quantification, accompanied by a qualifying criterion, to assess the trustworthiness of model predictions. This framework strategically alternates between model-generated solutions and traditional algorithms, guided by a criterion that assesses the prediction credibility based on quantified uncertainties. Experimental results validate the framework's efficacy, demonstrating its superiority over traditional deep learning models, notably in scenarios underrepresented in the training dataset. This work marks a pioneering endeavor in harnessing self-improving deep learning for interference management, through the lens of uncertainty quantification.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at general question-answering (Q&A) but often fall short in specialized domains due to a lack of domain-specific knowledge. Commercial companies face the dual challenges of privacy protection and resource constraints when involving LLMs for fine-tuning. This paper propose a novel framework, Self-Evolution, designed to address these issues by leveraging lightweight open-source LLMs through multiple iterative fine-tuning rounds. To enhance the efficiency of iterative fine-tuning, Self-Evolution employ a strategy that filters and reinforces the knowledge with higher value during the iterative process. We employed Self-Evolution on Qwen1.5-7B-Chat using 4,000 documents containing rich domain knowledge from China Mobile, achieving a performance score 174% higher on domain-specific question-answering evaluations than Qwen1.5-7B-Chat and even 22% higher than Qwen1.5-72B-Chat. Self-Evolution has been deployed in China Mobile's daily operation and maintenance for 117 days, and it improves the efficiency of locating alarms, fixing problems, and finding related reports, with an average efficiency improvement of over 18.6%. In addition, we release Self-Evolution framework code in https://github.com/Zero-Pointer/Self-Evolution.

Offline reinforcement learning enables agents to leverage large pre-collected datasets of environment transitions to learn control policies, circumventing the need for potentially expensive or unsafe online data collection. Significant progress has been made recently in offline model-based reinforcement learning, approaches which leverage a learned dynamics model. This typically involves constructing a probabilistic model, and using the model uncertainty to penalize rewards where there is insufficient data, solving for a pessimistic MDP that lower bounds the true MDP. Existing methods, however, exhibit a breakdown between theory and practice, whereby pessimistic return ought to be bounded by the total variation distance of the model from the true dynamics, but is instead implemented through a penalty based on estimated model uncertainty. This has spawned a variety of uncertainty heuristics, with little to no comparison between differing approaches. In this paper, we compare these heuristics, and design novel protocols to investigate their interaction with other hyperparameters, such as the number of models, or imaginary rollout horizon. Using these insights, we show that selecting these key hyperparameters using Bayesian Optimization produces superior configurations that are vastly different to those currently used in existing hand-tuned state-of-the-art methods, and result in drastically stronger performance.

One paradigm of language model (LM) fine-tuning relies on creating large training datasets, under the assumption that high quantity and diversity will enable models to generalize to novel tasks after post-training. In practice, gathering large sets of data is inefficient, and training on them is prohibitively expensive; worse, there is no guarantee that the resulting model will handle complex scenarios or generalize better. Moreover, existing techniques rarely assess whether a training sample provides novel information or is redundant with the knowledge already acquired by the model, resulting in unnecessary costs. In this work, we explore a new test-time self-improvement method to create more effective and generalizable agentic LMs on-the-fly. The proposed algorithm can be summarized in three steps: (i) first it identifies the samples that model struggles with (self-awareness), (ii) then generates similar examples from detected uncertain samples (self-data augmentation), and (iii) uses these newly generated samples at test-time fine-tuning (self-improvement). We study two variants of this approach: Test-Time Self-Improvement (TT-SI), where the same model generates additional training examples from its own uncertain cases and then learns from them, and contrast this approach with Test-Time Distillation (TT-D), where a stronger model generates similar examples for uncertain cases, enabling student to adapt using distilled supervision. Empirical evaluations across different agent benchmarks demonstrate that TT-SI improves the performance with +5.48% absolute accuracy gain on average across all benchmarks and surpasses other standard learning methods, yet using 68x less training samples. Our findings highlight the promise of TT-SI, demonstrating the potential of self-improvement algorithms at test-time as a new paradigm for building more capable agents toward self-evolution.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

Is the lottery ticket phenomenon an idiosyncrasy of gradient-based training or does it generalize to evolutionary optimization? In this paper we establish the existence of highly sparse trainable initializations for evolution strategies (ES) and characterize qualitative differences compared to gradient descent (GD)-based sparse training. We introduce a novel signal-to-noise iterative pruning procedure, which incorporates loss curvature information into the network pruning step. This can enable the discovery of even sparser trainable network initializations when using black-box evolution as compared to GD-based optimization. Furthermore, we find that these initializations encode an inductive bias, which transfers across different ES, related tasks and even to GD-based training. Finally, we compare the local optima resulting from the different optimization paradigms and sparsity levels. In contrast to GD, ES explore diverse and flat local optima and do not preserve linear mode connectivity across sparsity levels and independent runs. The results highlight qualitative differences between evolution and gradient-based learning dynamics, which can be uncovered by the study of iterative pruning procedures.

Self-evolution is a central research topic in enabling large language model (LLM)-based agents to continually improve their capabilities after pretraining. Recent research has witnessed a transition from reinforcement learning (RL)-free to RL-based methods. Current RL-based methods either rely on dense external reward signals or extract intrinsic reward signals from LLMs themselves. However, these approaches diverge from the self-evolution mechanisms observed in human intelligence, where individuals learn and improve through mutual discussion and collaboration. In this work, we introduce Co-Evolving Multi-Agent Systems (CoMAS), a novel framework that enables agents to improve autonomously by learning from inter-agent interactions without external supervision. CoMAS generates intrinsic rewards from rich discussion dynamics, employs an LLM-as-a-judge mechanism to formulate these rewards, and optimizes each agent's policy through RL, thereby enabling decentralized and scalable co-evolution. Experimental results demonstrate that CoMAS consistently outperforms untrained agents and achieves state-of-the-art performance across most evaluation settings. Ablation studies confirm the necessity of interaction-based reward signals and reveal promising scalability as the number and diversity of agents increase. These findings establish CoMAS as a novel and effective paradigm for self-evolution in LLM-based agents.

Advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled a new class of self-evolving agents that autonomously improve through interaction with the environment, demonstrating strong capabilities. However, self-evolution also introduces novel risks overlooked by current safety research. In this work, we study the case where an agent's self-evolution deviates in unintended ways, leading to undesirable or even harmful outcomes. We refer to this as Misevolution. To provide a systematic investigation, we evaluate misevolution along four key evolutionary pathways: model, memory, tool, and workflow. Our empirical findings reveal that misevolution is a widespread risk, affecting agents built even on top-tier LLMs (e.g., Gemini-2.5-Pro). Different emergent risks are observed in the self-evolutionary process, such as the degradation of safety alignment after memory accumulation, or the unintended introduction of vulnerabilities in tool creation and reuse. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically conceptualize misevolution and provide empirical evidence of its occurrence, highlighting an urgent need for new safety paradigms for self-evolving agents. Finally, we discuss potential mitigation strategies to inspire further research on building safer and more trustworthy self-evolving agents. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/ShaoShuai0605/Misevolution . Warning: this paper includes examples that may be offensive or harmful in nature.

Best-of-N selection is a key technique for improving the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) through increased test-time computation. Current state-of-the-art methods often employ computationally intensive reward models for response evaluation and selection. Reward-free alternatives, like self-consistency and universal self-consistency, are limited in their ability to handle open-ended generation tasks or scale effectively. To address these limitations, we propose self-certainty, a novel and efficient metric that leverages the inherent probability distribution of LLM outputs to estimate response quality without requiring external reward models. We hypothesize that higher distributional self-certainty, aggregated across multiple samples, correlates with improved response accuracy, as it reflects greater confidence in the generated output. Through extensive experiments on various reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that self-certainty (1) scales effectively with increasing sample size N, akin to reward models but without the computational overhead; (2) complements chain-of-thought, improving reasoning performance beyond greedy decoding; and (3) generalizes to open-ended tasks where traditional self-consistency methods fall short. Our findings establish self-certainty as a practical and efficient way for improving LLM reasoning capabilities. The code is available at https://github.com/backprop07/Self-Certainty

Resided at the intersection of multi-fidelity optimization (MFO) and Bayesian optimization (BO), MF BO has found a niche in solving expensive engineering design optimization problems, thanks to its advantages in incorporating physical and mathematical understandings of the problems, saving resources, addressing exploitation-exploration trade-off, considering uncertainty, and processing parallel computing. The increasing number of works dedicated to MF BO suggests the need for a comprehensive review of this advanced optimization technique. In this paper, we survey recent developments of two essential ingredients of MF BO: Gaussian process (GP) based MF surrogates and acquisition functions. We first categorize the existing MF modeling methods and MFO strategies to locate MF BO in a large family of surrogate-based optimization and MFO algorithms. We then exploit the common properties shared between the methods from each ingredient of MF BO to describe important GP-based MF surrogate models and review various acquisition functions. By doing so, we expect to provide a structured understanding of MF BO. Finally, we attempt to reveal important aspects that require further research for applications of MF BO in solving intricate yet important design optimization problems, including constrained optimization, high-dimensional optimization, optimization under uncertainty, and multi-objective optimization.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents have recently shown impressive capabilities in complex reasoning and tool use via multi-step interactions with their environments. While these agents have the potential to tackle complicated tasks, their problem-solving process, i.e., agents' interaction trajectory leading to task completion, remains underexploited. These trajectories contain rich feedback that can navigate agents toward the right directions for solving problems correctly. Although prevailing approaches, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), can effectively balance exploration and exploitation, they ignore the interdependence among various trajectories and lack the diversity of search spaces, which leads to redundant reasoning and suboptimal outcomes. To address these challenges, we propose SE-Agent, a Self-Evolution framework that enables Agents to optimize their reasoning processes iteratively. Our approach revisits and enhances former pilot trajectories through three key operations: revision, recombination, and refinement. This evolutionary mechanism enables two critical advantages: (1) it expands the search space beyond local optima by intelligently exploring diverse solution paths guided by previous trajectories, and (2) it leverages cross-trajectory inspiration to efficiently enhance performance while mitigating the impact of suboptimal reasoning paths. Through these mechanisms, SE-Agent achieves continuous self-evolution that incrementally improves reasoning quality. We evaluate SE-Agent on SWE-bench Verified to resolve real-world GitHub issues. Experimental results across five strong LLMs show that integrating SE-Agent delivers up to 55% relative improvement, achieving state-of-the-art performance among all open-source agents on SWE-bench Verified. Our code and demonstration materials are publicly available at https://github.com/JARVIS-Xs/SE-Agent.

Large Language Model (LLM) Agents, often trained with Reinforcement Learning (RL), are constrained by a dependency on human-curated data, limiting scalability and tethering AI to human knowledge. Existing self-evolution frameworks offer an alternative but are typically restricted by the model's inherent capabilities and single-round interactions, hindering the development of complex curricula involving tool use or dynamic reasoning. We introduce Agent0, a fully autonomous framework that evolves high-performing agents without external data through multi-step co-evolution and seamless tool integration. Agent0 establishes a symbiotic competition between two agents initialized from the same base LLM: a curriculum agent that proposes increasingly challenging frontier tasks, and an executor agent that learns to solve them. We integrate external tools to enhance the executor's problem-solving capacity; this improvement, in turn, pressures the curriculum agent to construct more complex, tool-aware tasks. Through this iterative process, Agent0 establishes a self-reinforcing cycle that continuously produces high-quality curricula. Empirically, Agent0 substantially boosts reasoning capabilities, improving the Qwen3-8B-Base model by 18% on mathematical reasoning and 24% on general reasoning benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/aiming-lab/Agent0.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather prediction, and urban planning. Neural Partial Differential Equations (Neural PDEs), which combine deep learning (DL) techniques with domain expertise (e.g., governing equations) for parameterization, have proven to be effective in capturing valuable correlations within spatiotemporal datasets. However, sparse and noisy measurements coupled with modeling approximation introduce aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying uncertainties propagated from model inputs to outputs remains a challenge and an essential goal for establishing the trustworthiness of Neural PDEs. This work evaluates various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) approaches for both Forward and Inverse Problems in scientific applications. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Monte-Carlo Dropout (MCD), and a more conventional approach, Deep Ensembles (DE). To illustrate their performance, we take two canonical PDEs: Burger's equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. Our results indicate that Neural PDEs can effectively reconstruct flow systems and predict the associated unknown parameters. However, it is noteworthy that the results derived from Bayesian methods, based on our observations, tend to display a higher degree of certainty in their predictions as compared to those obtained using the DE. This elevated certainty in predictions suggests that Bayesian techniques might underestimate the true underlying uncertainty, thereby appearing more confident in their predictions than the DE approach.

In a convergence of machine learning and biology, we reveal that diffusion models are evolutionary algorithms. By considering evolution as a denoising process and reversed evolution as diffusion, we mathematically demonstrate that diffusion models inherently perform evolutionary algorithms, naturally encompassing selection, mutation, and reproductive isolation. Building on this equivalence, we propose the Diffusion Evolution method: an evolutionary algorithm utilizing iterative denoising -- as originally introduced in the context of diffusion models -- to heuristically refine solutions in parameter spaces. Unlike traditional approaches, Diffusion Evolution efficiently identifies multiple optimal solutions and outperforms prominent mainstream evolutionary algorithms. Furthermore, leveraging advanced concepts from diffusion models, namely latent space diffusion and accelerated sampling, we introduce Latent Space Diffusion Evolution, which finds solutions for evolutionary tasks in high-dimensional complex parameter space while significantly reducing computational steps. This parallel between diffusion and evolution not only bridges two different fields but also opens new avenues for mutual enhancement, raising questions about open-ended evolution and potentially utilizing non-Gaussian or discrete diffusion models in the context of Diffusion Evolution.

We consider the problem of global optimization with noisy zeroth order oracles - a well-motivated problem useful for various applications ranging from hyper-parameter tuning for deep learning to new material design. Existing work relies on Gaussian processes or other non-parametric family, which suffers from the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm GO-UCB that leverages a parametric family of functions (e.g., neural networks) instead. Under a realizable assumption and a few other mild geometric conditions, we show that GO-UCB achieves a cumulative regret of O(T) where T is the time horizon. At the core of GO-UCB is a carefully designed uncertainty set over parameters based on gradients that allows optimistic exploration. Synthetic and real-world experiments illustrate GO-UCB works better than Bayesian optimization approaches in high dimensional cases, even if the model is misspecified.

This paper presents a reinforced genetic approach to a defined d-resource system optimization problem. The classical evolution schema was ineffective due to a very strict feasibility function in the studied problem. Hence, the presented strategy has introduced several modifications and adaptations to standard genetic routines, e.g.: a migration operator which is an analogy to the biological random genetic drift.

We endow Large Language Models (LLMs) with fine-grained self-evaluation to refine multi-step reasoning inference. We propose an effective prompting approach that integrates self-evaluation guidance through stochastic beam search. Our approach explores the reasoning search space using a well-calibrated automatic criterion. This enables an efficient search to produce higher-quality final predictions. With the self-evaluation guided stochastic beam search, we also balance the quality-diversity trade-off in the generation of reasoning chains. This allows our approach to adapt well with majority voting and surpass the corresponding Codex-backboned baselines by 6.34%, 9.56%, and 5.46% on the GSM8K, AQuA, and StrategyQA benchmarks, respectively, in few-shot accuracy. Analysis of our decompositional reasoning finds it pinpoints logic failures and leads to higher consistency and robustness. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuxiXie/SelfEval-Guided-Decoding.

The mathematical problem-solving capabilities of large language models have become a focal point of research, with growing interests in leveraging self-generated reasoning paths as a promising way to refine and enhance these models. These paths capture step-by-step logical processes while requiring only the correct answer for supervision. The self-training method has been shown to be effective in reasoning tasks while eliminating the need for external models and manual annotations. However, optimizing the use of self-generated data for model training remains an open challenge. In this work, we propose Entropy-Based Adaptive Weighting for Self-Training (EAST), an adaptive weighting strategy designed to prioritize uncertain data during self-training. Specifically, EAST employs a mapping function with a tunable parameter that controls the sharpness of the weighting, assigning higher weights to data where the model exhibits greater uncertainty. This approach guides the model to focus on more informative and challenging examples, thereby enhancing its reasoning ability. We evaluate our approach on GSM8K and MATH benchmarks. Empirical results show that, while the vanilla method yields virtually no improvement (0%) on MATH, EAST achieves around a 1% gain over backbone model. On GSM8K, EAST attains a further 1-2% performance boost compared to the vanilla method.

We introduce ShinkaEvolve: a new open-source framework leveraging large language models (LLMs) to advance scientific discovery with state-of-the-art performance and unprecedented efficiency. Recent advances in scaling inference time compute of LLMs have enabled significant progress in generalized scientific discovery. These approaches rely on evolutionary agentic harnesses that leverage LLMs as mutation operators to generate candidate solutions. However, current code evolution methods suffer from critical limitations: they are sample inefficient, requiring thousands of samples to identify effective solutions, and remain closed-source, hindering broad adoption and extension. ShinkaEvolve addresses these limitations, introducing three key innovations: a parent sampling technique balancing exploration and exploitation, code novelty rejection-sampling for efficient search space exploration, and a bandit-based LLM ensemble selection strategy. We evaluate ShinkaEvolve across diverse tasks, demonstrating consistent improvements in sample efficiency and solution quality. ShinkaEvolve discovers a new state-of-the-art circle packing solution using only 150 samples, designs high-performing agentic harnesses for AIME mathematical reasoning tasks, identifies improvements to ALE-Bench competitive programming solutions, and discovers novel mixture-of-expert load balancing loss functions that illuminate the space of optimization strategies. Our results demonstrate that ShinkaEvolve achieves broad applicability with exceptional sample efficiency. By providing open-source accessibility and cost-efficiency, this work democratizes open-ended discovery across diverse computational problems.

We study the problem of nonepisodic reinforcement learning (RL) for nonlinear dynamical systems, where the system dynamics are unknown and the RL agent has to learn from a single trajectory, i.e., without resets. We propose Nonepisodic Optimistic RL (NeoRL), an approach based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. NeoRL uses well-calibrated probabilistic models and plans optimistically w.r.t. the epistemic uncertainty about the unknown dynamics. Under continuity and bounded energy assumptions on the system, we provide a first-of-its-kind regret bound of O(Gamma_T T) for general nonlinear systems with Gaussian process dynamics. We compare NeoRL to other baselines on several deep RL environments and empirically demonstrate that NeoRL achieves the optimal average cost while incurring the least regret.

Recent advances in LLM-guided evolutionary computation, particularly AlphaEvolve (Novikov et al., 2025; Georgiev et al., 2025), have demonstrated remarkable success in discovering novel mathematical constructions and solving challenging optimization problems. However, the high-level descriptions in published work leave many implementation details unspecified, hindering reproducibility and further research. In this report we present GigaEvo, an extensible open-source framework that enables researchers to study and experiment with hybrid LLM-evolution approaches inspired by AlphaEvolve. Our system provides modular implementations of key components: MAP-Elites quality-diversity algorithms, asynchronous DAG-based evaluation pipelines, LLM-driven mutation operators with insight generation and bidirectional lineage tracking, and flexible multi-island evolutionary strategies. In order to assess reproducibility and validate our implementation we evaluate GigaEvo on challenging problems from the AlphaEvolve paper: Heilbronn triangle placement, circle packing in squares, and high-dimensional kissing numbers. The framework emphasizes modularity, concurrency, and ease of experimentation, enabling rapid prototyping through declarative configuration. We provide detailed descriptions of system architecture, implementation decisions, and experimental methodology to support further research in LLM driven evolutionary methods. The GigaEvo framework and all experimental code are available at https://github.com/AIRI-Institute/gigaevo-core.

We propose an evolution strategies-based algorithm for estimating gradients in unrolled computation graphs, called ES-Single. Similarly to the recently-proposed Persistent Evolution Strategies (PES), ES-Single is unbiased, and overcomes chaos arising from recursive function applications by smoothing the meta-loss landscape. ES-Single samples a single perturbation per particle, that is kept fixed over the course of an inner problem (e.g., perturbations are not re-sampled for each partial unroll). Compared to PES, ES-Single is simpler to implement and has lower variance: the variance of ES-Single is constant with respect to the number of truncated unrolls, removing a key barrier in applying ES to long inner problems using short truncations. We show that ES-Single is unbiased for quadratic inner problems, and demonstrate empirically that its variance can be substantially lower than that of PES. ES-Single consistently outperforms PES on a variety of tasks, including a synthetic benchmark task, hyperparameter optimization, training recurrent neural networks, and training learned optimizers.

In the realm of machine learning, traditional model development and automated approaches like AutoML typically rely on layers of abstraction, such as tree-based or Cartesian genetic programming. Our study introduces "Guided Evolution" (GE), a novel framework that diverges from these methods by utilizing Large Language Models (LLMs) to directly modify code. GE leverages LLMs for a more intelligent, supervised evolutionary process, guiding mutations and crossovers. Our unique "Evolution of Thought" (EoT) technique further enhances GE by enabling LLMs to reflect on and learn from the outcomes of previous mutations. This results in a self-sustaining feedback loop that augments decision-making in model evolution. GE maintains genetic diversity, crucial for evolutionary algorithms, by leveraging LLMs' capability to generate diverse responses from expertly crafted prompts and modulate model temperature. This not only accelerates the evolution process but also injects expert like creativity and insight into the process. Our application of GE in evolving the ExquisiteNetV2 model demonstrates its efficacy: the LLM-driven GE autonomously produced variants with improved accuracy, increasing from 92.52% to 93.34%, without compromising model compactness. This underscores the potential of LLMs to accelerate the traditional model design pipeline, enabling models to autonomously evolve and enhance their own designs.

Self-tuning algorithms that adapt the learning process online encourage more effective and robust learning. Among all the methods available, meta-gradients have emerged as a promising approach. They leverage the differentiability of the learning rule with respect to some hyper-parameters to adapt them in an online fashion. Although meta-gradients can be accumulated over multiple learning steps to avoid myopic updates, this is rarely used in practice. In this work, we demonstrate that whilst multi-step meta-gradients do provide a better learning signal in expectation, this comes at the cost of a significant increase in variance, hindering performance. In the light of this analysis, we introduce a novel method mixing multiple inner steps that enjoys a more accurate and robust meta-gradient signal, essentially trading off bias and variance in meta-gradient estimation. When applied to the Snake game, the mixing meta-gradient algorithm can cut the variance by a factor of 3 while achieving similar or higher performance.

The study of hardest and easiest fitness landscapes is an active area of research. Recently, Kaufmann, Larcher, Lengler and Zou conjectured that for the self-adjusting (1,lambda)-EA, Adversarial Dynamic BinVal (ADBV) is the hardest dynamic monotone function to optimize. We introduce the function Switching Dynamic BinVal (SDBV) which coincides with ADBV whenever the number of remaining zeros in the search point is strictly less than n/2, where n denotes the dimension of the search space. We show, using a combinatorial argument, that for the (1+1)-EA with any mutation rate p in [0,1], SDBV is drift-minimizing among the class of dynamic monotone functions. Our construction provides the first explicit example of an instance of the partially-ordered evolutionary algorithm (PO-EA) model with parameterized pessimism introduced by Colin, Doerr and F\'erey, building on work of Jansen. We further show that the (1+1)-EA optimizes SDBV in Theta(n^{3/2}) generations. Our simulations demonstrate matching runtimes for both static and self-adjusting (1,lambda) and (1+lambda)-EA. We further show, using an example of fixed dimension, that drift-minimization does not equal maximal runtime.

The Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is a prominent variational algorithm used for solving combinatorial optimization problems such as the Max-Cut problem. A key challenge in QAOA lies in efficiently identifying suitable parameters (gamma, beta) that lead to high-quality solutions. In this paper, we propose a framework that combines Fully Informed Particle Swarm Optimization (FIPSO) with adaptive gradient correction using the Adam Optimizer to navigate the QAOA parameter space. This approach aims to avoid issues such as barren plateaus and convergence to local minima. The proposed algorithm is evaluated against two classes of graph instances, Erdos Renyi and Watts-Strogatz. Experimental results across multiple QAOA depths consistently demonstrate superior performance compared to random initialization, underscoring the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed optimization framework.

Recent offline meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) methods typically utilize task-dependent behavior policies (e.g., training RL agents on each individual task) to collect a multi-task dataset. However, these methods always require extra information for fast adaptation, such as offline context for testing tasks. To address this problem, we first formally characterize a unique challenge in offline meta-RL: transition-reward distribution shift between offline datasets and online adaptation. Our theory finds that out-of-distribution adaptation episodes may lead to unreliable policy evaluation and that online adaptation with in-distribution episodes can ensure adaptation performance guarantee. Based on these theoretical insights, we propose a novel adaptation framework, called In-Distribution online Adaptation with uncertainty Quantification (IDAQ), which generates in-distribution context using a given uncertainty quantification and performs effective task belief inference to address new tasks. We find a return-based uncertainty quantification for IDAQ that performs effectively. Experiments show that IDAQ achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Meta-World ML1 benchmark compared to baselines with/without offline adaptation.

The performance of acquisition functions for Bayesian optimisation to locate the global optimum of continuous functions is investigated in terms of the Pareto front between exploration and exploitation. We show that Expected Improvement (EI) and the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) always select solutions to be expensively evaluated on the Pareto front, but Probability of Improvement is not guaranteed to do so and Weighted Expected Improvement does so only for a restricted range of weights. We introduce two novel epsilon-greedy acquisition functions. Extensive empirical evaluation of these together with random search, purely exploratory, and purely exploitative search on 10 benchmark problems in 1 to 10 dimensions shows that epsilon-greedy algorithms are generally at least as effective as conventional acquisition functions (e.g., EI and UCB), particularly with a limited budget. In higher dimensions epsilon-greedy approaches are shown to have improved performance over conventional approaches. These results are borne out on a real world computational fluid dynamics optimisation problem and a robotics active learning problem. Our analysis and experiments suggest that the most effective strategy, particularly in higher dimensions, is to be mostly greedy, occasionally selecting a random exploratory solution.

During recent years the interest of optimization and machine learning communities in high-probability convergence of stochastic optimization methods has been growing. One of the main reasons for this is that high-probability complexity bounds are more accurate and less studied than in-expectation ones. However, SOTA high-probability non-asymptotic convergence results are derived under strong assumptions such as the boundedness of the gradient noise variance or of the objective's gradient itself. In this paper, we propose several algorithms with high-probability convergence results under less restrictive assumptions. In particular, we derive new high-probability convergence results under the assumption that the gradient/operator noise has bounded central alpha-th moment for alpha in (1,2] in the following setups: (i) smooth non-convex / Polyak-Lojasiewicz / convex / strongly convex / quasi-strongly convex minimization problems, (ii) Lipschitz / star-cocoercive and monotone / quasi-strongly monotone variational inequalities. These results justify the usage of the considered methods for solving problems that do not fit standard functional classes studied in stochastic optimization.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

The Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) path planning problem is a complex optimization problem in the field of robotics. In this paper, we investigate the possible utilization of this problem in benchmarking global optimization methods. We devise a problem instance generator and pick 56 representative instances, which we compare to established benchmarking suits through Exploratory Landscape Analysis to show their uniqueness. For the computational comparison, we select twelve well-performing global optimization techniques from both subfields of stochastic algorithms (evolutionary computation methods) and deterministic algorithms (Dividing RECTangles, or DIRECT-type methods). The experiments were conducted in settings with varying dimensionality and computational budgets. The results were analyzed through several criteria (number of best-found solutions, mean relative error, Friedman ranks) and utilized established statistical tests. The best-ranking methods for the UAV problems were almost universally the top-performing evolutionary techniques from recent competitions on numerical optimization at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Congress on Evolutionary Computation. Lastly, we discussed the variable dimension characteristics of the studied UAV problems that remain still largely under-investigated.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly improved their reasoning capabilities; however, they still struggle with complex multi-step mathematical problem-solving due to error propagation, lack of self-correction, and limited adaptability to diverse reasoning styles. Existing methods rely on static fine-tuning or prompt engineering, which fail to generalize across problem complexities, while the scarcity of high-quality preference data further hinders reliable reasoning. We introduce SPHERE, a self-evolving data generation pipeline that enhances reasoning in small language models (SLMs) by iteratively generating, correcting, and diversifying reasoning chains. SPHERE operates in three stages: (i) Self-Generation, where the model autonomously constructs problem-solving steps; (ii) Self-Correction, enabling it to identify and rectify errors; and (iii) Diversity Induction, improving robustness through multiple valid reasoning trajectories. This self-evolution mechanism strengthens mathematical reasoning and enhances model reliability. Evaluations on MATH 500, GSM8K, AIME, AMC, and Olympiad show that SPHERE-trained models achieve significant gains over their base versions and match/surpass GPT-4o on certain benchmarks. Our findings demonstrate that self-evolving models can close the reasoning gap between SLMs and state-of-the-art LLMs, making mathematical AI more reliable, scalable, and efficient.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly advanced in various fields and intelligent agent applications. However, current LLMs that learn from human or external model supervision are costly and may face performance ceilings as task complexity and diversity increase. To address this issue, self-evolution approaches that enable LLM to autonomously acquire, refine, and learn from experiences generated by the model itself are rapidly growing. This new training paradigm inspired by the human experiential learning process offers the potential to scale LLMs towards superintelligence. In this work, we present a comprehensive survey of self-evolution approaches in LLMs. We first propose a conceptual framework for self-evolution and outline the evolving process as iterative cycles composed of four phases: experience acquisition, experience refinement, updating, and evaluation. Second, we categorize the evolution objectives of LLMs and LLM-based agents; then, we summarize the literature and provide taxonomy and insights for each module. Lastly, we pinpoint existing challenges and propose future directions to improve self-evolution frameworks, equipping researchers with critical insights to fast-track the development of self-evolving LLMs.

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While current efforts focus on improving uncertainty quantification accuracy and efficiency, there is a need to identify uncertainty sources and take actions to mitigate their effects on predictions. Therefore, we propose to develop explainable and actionable Bayesian deep learning methods to not only perform accurate uncertainty quantification but also explain the uncertainties, identify their sources, and propose strategies to mitigate the uncertainty impacts. Specifically, we introduce a gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify the most problematic regions of the input that contribute to the prediction uncertainty. Compared to existing methods, the proposed UA-Backprop has competitive accuracy, relaxed assumptions, and high efficiency. Moreover, we propose an uncertainty mitigation strategy that leverages the attribution results as attention to further improve the model performance. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Maintaining genetic diversity as a means to avoid premature convergence is critical in Genetic Programming. Several approaches have been proposed to achieve this, with some focusing on the mating phase from coupling dissimilar solutions to some form of self-adaptive selection mechanism. In nature, genetic diversity can be the consequence of many different factors, but when considering reproduction Sexual Selection can have an impact on promoting variety within a species. Specifically, Mate Choice often results in different selective pressures between sexes, which in turn may trigger evolutionary differences among them. Although some mechanisms of Sexual Selection have been applied to Genetic Programming in the past, the literature is scarce when it comes to mate choice. Recently, a way of modelling mating preferences by ideal mate representations was proposed, achieving good results when compared to a standard approach. These mating preferences evolve freely in a self-adaptive fashion, creating an evolutionary driving force of its own alongside fitness pressure. The inner mechanisms of this approach operate from personal choice, as each individual has its own representation of a perfect mate which affects the mate to be selected. In this paper, we compare this method against a random mate choice to assess whether there are advantages in evolving personal preferences. We conducted experiments using three symbolic regression problems and different mutation rates. The results show that self-adaptive mating preferences are able to create a more diverse set of solutions when compared to the traditional approach and a random mate approach (with statistically significant differences) and have a higher success rate in three of the six instances tested.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have showcased remarkable versatility across diverse domains. However, the pathway toward autonomous model development, a cornerstone for achieving human-level learning and advancing autonomous AI, remains largely uncharted. We introduce an innovative approach, termed "SELF" (Self-Evolution with Language Feedback). This methodology empowers LLMs to undergo continual self-evolution. Furthermore, SELF employs language-based feedback as a versatile and comprehensive evaluative tool, pinpointing areas for response refinement and bolstering the stability of self-evolutionary training. Initiating with meta-skill learning, SELF acquires foundational meta-skills with a focus on self-feedback and self-refinement. These meta-skills are critical, guiding the model's subsequent self-evolution through a cycle of perpetual training with self-curated data, thereby enhancing its intrinsic abilities. Given unlabeled instructions, SELF equips the model with the capability to autonomously generate and interactively refine responses. This synthesized training data is subsequently filtered and utilized for iterative fine-tuning, enhancing the model's capabilities. Experimental results on representative benchmarks substantiate that SELF can progressively advance its inherent abilities without the requirement of human intervention, thereby indicating a viable pathway for autonomous model evolution. Additionally, SELF can employ online self-refinement strategy to produce responses of superior quality. In essence, the SELF framework signifies a progressive step towards autonomous LLM development, transforming the LLM from a mere passive recipient of information into an active participant in its own evolution.

AlphaEvolve is a generic evolutionary coding agent that combines the generative capabilities of LLMs with automated evaluation in an iterative evolutionary framework that proposes, tests, and refines algorithmic solutions to challenging scientific and practical problems. In this paper we showcase AlphaEvolve as a tool for autonomously discovering novel mathematical constructions and advancing our understanding of long-standing open problems. To demonstrate its breadth, we considered a list of 67 problems spanning mathematical analysis, combinatorics, geometry, and number theory. The system rediscovered the best known solutions in most of the cases and discovered improved solutions in several. In some instances, AlphaEvolve is also able to generalize results for a finite number of input values into a formula valid for all input values. Furthermore, we are able to combine this methodology with Deep Think and AlphaProof in a broader framework where the additional proof-assistants and reasoning systems provide automated proof generation and further mathematical insights. These results demonstrate that large language model-guided evolutionary search can autonomously discover mathematical constructions that complement human intuition, at times matching or even improving the best known results, highlighting the potential for significant new ways of interaction between mathematicians and AI systems. We present AlphaEvolve as a powerful new tool for mathematical discovery, capable of exploring vast search spaces to solve complex optimization problems at scale, often with significantly reduced requirements on preparation and computation time.

We investigate the potential of bio-inspired evolutionary algorithms for designing quantum circuits with specific goals, focusing on two particular tasks. The first one is motivated by the ideas of Artificial Life that are used to reproduce stochastic cellular automata with given rules. We test the robustness of quantum implementations of the cellular automata for different numbers of quantum gates The second task deals with the sampling of quantum circuits that generate highly entangled quantum states, which constitute an important resource for quantum computing. In particular, an evolutionary algorithm is employed to optimize circuits with respect to a fitness function defined with the Mayer-Wallach entanglement measure. We demonstrate that, by balancing the mutation rate between exploration and exploitation, we can find entangling quantum circuits for up to five qubits. We also discuss the trade-off between the number of gates in quantum circuits and the computational costs of finding the gate arrangements leading to a strongly entangled state. Our findings provide additional insight into the trade-off between the complexity of a circuit and its performance, which is an important factor in the design of quantum circuits.

Large language models (LLMs) like GPTs, trained on vast datasets, have demonstrated impressive capabilities in language understanding, reasoning, and planning, achieving human-level performance in various tasks. Most studies focus on enhancing these models by training on ever-larger datasets to build more powerful foundation models. While training stronger models is important, enabling models to evolve during inference is equally crucial, a process we refer to as AI self-evolution. Unlike large-scale training, self-evolution may rely on limited data or interactions. Inspired by the columnar organization of the human cerebral cortex, we hypothesize that AI models could develop cognitive abilities and build internal representations through iterative interactions with their environment. To achieve this, models need long-term memory (LTM) to store and manage processed interaction data. LTM supports self-evolution by representing diverse experiences across environments and agents. In this report, we explore AI self-evolution and its potential to enhance models during inference. We examine LTM's role in lifelong learning, allowing models to evolve based on accumulated interactions. We outline the structure of LTM and the systems needed for effective data retention and representation. We also classify approaches for building personalized models with LTM data and show how these models achieve self-evolution through interaction. Using LTM, our multi-agent framework OMNE achieved first place on the GAIA benchmark, demonstrating LTM's potential for AI self-evolution. Finally, we present a roadmap for future research, emphasizing the importance of LTM for advancing AI technology and its practical applications.

Code generation using large language models (LLMs) is highly sensitive to the choice of tokens during decoding, especially at points of uncertainty that critically affect the generated program's logic. Conventional decoding methods such as greedy search and beam search apply uniform treatment to all tokens, neglecting the unique uncertainty characteristics inherent in code generation, which can result in suboptimal outputs. In this work, we conduct an empirical analysis demonstrating that a significant portion of generation errors arises from incorrect token ranking at high-uncertainty steps, where the ground truth token exists in the candidate set but fails to be ranked first. Inspired by this insight, we introduce AdaDec, an adaptive decoding framework guided by token-level uncertainty quantified via Shannon entropy. AdaDec dynamically learns uncertainty thresholds tailored to each model and employs a pause-then-rerank mechanism with lookahead when the uncertainty surpasses these thresholds. Evaluation on the HumanEval and MBPP benchmarks reveals that AdaDec achieves up to a 15.5% improvement in Pass@1 accuracy compared to greedy decoding, matches or outperforms traditional beam search, and reduces both computational overhead and latency through targeted, selective pausing. Our findings suggest that uncertainty-aware adaptive decoding holds considerable potential for enhancing both the reliability and efficiency of code generation with LLMs.

Expensive multi-objective optimization problems (EMOPs) are common in real-world scenarios where evaluating objective functions is costly and involves extensive computations or physical experiments. Current Pareto set learning methods for such problems often rely on surrogate models like Gaussian processes to approximate the objective functions. These surrogate models can become fragmented, resulting in numerous small uncertain regions between explored solutions. When using acquisition functions such as the Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), these uncertain regions can turn into pseudo-local optima, complicating the search for globally optimal solutions. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach called SVH-PSL, which integrates Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) with Hypernetworks for efficient Pareto set learning. Our method addresses the issues of fragmented surrogate models and pseudo-local optima by collectively moving particles in a manner that smooths out the solution space. The particles interact with each other through a kernel function, which helps maintain diversity and encourages the exploration of underexplored regions. This kernel-based interaction prevents particles from clustering around pseudo-local optima and promotes convergence towards globally optimal solutions. Our approach aims to establish robust relationships between trade-off reference vectors and their corresponding true Pareto solutions, overcoming the limitations of existing methods. Through extensive experiments across both synthetic and real-world MOO benchmarks, we demonstrate that SVH-PSL significantly improves the quality of the learned Pareto set, offering a promising solution for expensive multi-objective optimization problems.

As systems trend toward superintelligence, a natural modeling premise is that agents can self-improve along every facet of their own design. We formalize this with a five-axis decomposition and a decision layer, separating incentives from learning behavior and analyzing axes in isolation. Our central result identifies and introduces a sharp utility--learning tension, the structural conflict in self-modifying systems whereby utility-driven changes that improve immediate or expected performance can also erode the statistical preconditions for reliable learning and generalization. Our findings show that distribution-free guarantees are preserved iff the policy-reachable model family is uniformly capacity-bounded; when capacity can grow without limit, utility-rational self-changes can render learnable tasks unlearnable. Under standard assumptions common in practice, these axes reduce to the same capacity criterion, yielding a single boundary for safe self-modification. Numerical experiments across several axes validate the theory by comparing destructive utility policies against our proposed two-gate policies that preserve learnability.

Recent advances in large language models have sparked growing interest in AI agents capable of solving complex, real-world tasks. However, most existing agent systems rely on manually crafted configurations that remain static after deployment, limiting their ability to adapt to dynamic and evolving environments. To this end, recent research has explored agent evolution techniques that aim to automatically enhance agent systems based on interaction data and environmental feedback. This emerging direction lays the foundation for self-evolving AI agents, which bridge the static capabilities of foundation models with the continuous adaptability required by lifelong agentic systems. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of existing techniques for self-evolving agentic systems. Specifically, we first introduce a unified conceptual framework that abstracts the feedback loop underlying the design of self-evolving agentic systems. The framework highlights four key components: System Inputs, Agent System, Environment, and Optimisers, serving as a foundation for understanding and comparing different strategies. Based on this framework, we systematically review a wide range of self-evolving techniques that target different components of the agent system. We also investigate domain-specific evolution strategies developed for specialised fields such as biomedicine, programming, and finance, where optimisation objectives are tightly coupled with domain constraints. In addition, we provide a dedicated discussion on the evaluation, safety, and ethical considerations for self-evolving agentic systems, which are critical to ensuring their effectiveness and reliability. This survey aims to provide researchers and practitioners with a systematic understanding of self-evolving AI agents, laying the foundation for the development of more adaptive, autonomous, and lifelong agentic systems.

Today's AI systems have human-designed, fixed architectures and cannot autonomously and continuously improve themselves. The advance of AI could itself be automated. If done safely, that would accelerate AI development and allow us to reap its benefits much sooner. Meta-learning can automate the discovery of novel algorithms, but is limited by first-order improvements and the human design of a suitable search space. The G\"odel machine proposed a theoretical alternative: a self-improving AI that repeatedly modifies itself in a provably beneficial manner. Unfortunately, proving that most changes are net beneficial is impossible in practice. We introduce the Darwin G\"odel Machine (DGM), a self-improving system that iteratively modifies its own code (thereby also improving its ability to modify its own codebase) and empirically validates each change using coding benchmarks. Inspired by Darwinian evolution and open-endedness research, the DGM maintains an archive of generated coding agents. It grows the archive by sampling an agent from it and using a foundation model to create a new, interesting, version of the sampled agent. This open-ended exploration forms a growing tree of diverse, high-quality agents and allows the parallel exploration of many different paths through the search space. Empirically, the DGM automatically improves its coding capabilities (e.g., better code editing tools, long-context window management, peer-review mechanisms), increasing performance on SWE-bench from 20.0% to 50.0%, and on Polyglot from 14.2% to 30.7%. Furthermore, the DGM significantly outperforms baselines without self-improvement or open-ended exploration. All experiments were done with safety precautions (e.g., sandboxing, human oversight). The DGM is a significant step toward self-improving AI, capable of gathering its own stepping stones along paths that unfold into endless innovation.

Recently, Agentic Reinforcement Learning (Agentic RL) has made significant progress in incentivizing the multi-turn, long-horizon tool-use capabilities of web agents. While mainstream agentic RL algorithms autonomously explore high-uncertainty tool-call steps under the guidance of entropy, excessive reliance on entropy signals can impose further constraints, leading to the training collapse. In this paper, we delve into the challenges caused by entropy and propose the Agentic Entropy-Balanced Policy Optimization (AEPO), an agentic RL algorithm designed to balance entropy in both the rollout and policy update phases. AEPO comprises two core components: (1) a dynamic entropy-balanced rollout mechanism that adaptively allocate global and branch sampling budget through entropy pre-monitoring, while imposing a branch penalty on consecutive high-entropy tool-call steps to prevent over-branching issues; and (2) Entropy-Balanced Policy Optimization that inserts a stop-gradient operation into the high-entropy clipping term to preserve and properly rescale gradients on high-entropy tokens, while incorporating entropy-aware advantage estimation to prioritize learning on high-uncertainty tokens. Results across 14 challenging datasets show that AEPO consistently outperforms 7 mainstream RL algorithms. With just 1K RL samples, Qwen3-14B with AEPO achieves impressive results: 47.6% on GAIA, 11.2% on Humanity's Last Exam, and 43.0% on WebWalker for Pass@1; 65.0% on GAIA, 26.0% on Humanity's Last Exam, and 70.0% on WebWalker for Pass@5. Further analysis reveals that AEPO improves rollout sampling diversity while maintaining stable policy entropy, facilitating scalable web agent training.

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

The omnipresence of NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems (COPs) compels domain experts to engage in trial-and-error heuristic design. The long-standing endeavor of design automation has gained new momentum with the rise of large language models (LLMs). This paper introduces Language Hyper-Heuristics (LHHs), an emerging variant of Hyper-Heuristics that leverages LLMs for heuristic generation, featuring minimal manual intervention and open-ended heuristic spaces. To empower LHHs, we present Reflective Evolution (ReEvo), a novel integration of evolutionary search for efficiently exploring the heuristic space, and LLM reflections to provide verbal gradients within the space. Across five heterogeneous algorithmic types, six different COPs, and both white-box and black-box views of COPs, ReEvo yields state-of-the-art and competitive meta-heuristics, evolutionary algorithms, heuristics, and neural solvers, while being more sample-efficient than prior LHHs.

In this work, we explore uncertainty estimation as a proxy for correctness in LLM-generated code. To this end, we adapt two state-of-the-art techniques from natural language generation -- one based on entropy and another on mutual information -- to the domain of code generation. Given the distinct semantic properties of code, we introduce modifications, including a semantic equivalence check based on symbolic execution. Our findings indicate a strong correlation between the uncertainty computed through these techniques and correctness, highlighting the potential of uncertainty estimation for quality assessment. Additionally, we propose a simplified version of the entropy-based method that assumes a uniform distribution over the LLM's responses, demonstrating comparable effectiveness. Using these techniques, we develop an abstention policy that prevents the model from making predictions when uncertainty is high, reducing incorrect outputs to near zero. Our evaluation on the LiveCodeBench shows that our approach significantly outperforms a baseline relying solely on LLM-reported log-probabilities.

Optimization can be found in many real-life applications. Designing an effective algorithm for a specific optimization problem typically requires a tedious amount of effort from human experts with domain knowledge and algorithm design skills. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called Algorithm Evolution using Large Language Model (AEL). It utilizes a large language model (LLM) to automatically generate optimization algorithms via an evolutionary framework. AEL does algorithm-level evolution without model training. Human effort and requirements for domain knowledge can be significantly reduced. We take constructive methods for the salesman traveling problem as a test example, we show that the constructive algorithm obtained by AEL outperforms simple hand-crafted and LLM-generated heuristics. Compared with other domain deep learning model-based algorithms, these methods exhibit excellent scalability across different problem sizes. AEL is also very different from previous attempts that utilize LLMs as search operators in algorithms.

Existing methods for uncertainty quantification incur massive memory and compute overhead, often requiring multiple models/inferences. Hence they are impractical on ultra-low-power KB-sized TinyML devices. To reduce overhead, prior works have proposed the use of early-exit networks as ensembles to quantify uncertainty in a single forward-pass. However, they still have a prohibitive cost for tinyML. To address these challenges, we propose QUTE, a novel resource-efficient early-exit-assisted ensemble architecture optimized for tinyML models. QUTE adds additional output blocks at the final exit of the base network and distills the knowledge of early-exits into these blocks to create a diverse and lightweight ensemble architecture. Our results show that QUTE outperforms popular prior works, and improves the quality of uncertainty estimates by 6% with 3.1x lower model size on average compared to the most relevant prior work. Furthermore, we demonstrate that QUTE is also effective in detecting co-variate shifted and out-of-distribution inputs, and shows competitive performance relative to G-ODIN, a state-of-the-art generalized OOD detector.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular, surrogate model-based approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. Given a surrogate model, the next location to expensively evaluate is chosen via maximisation of a cheap-to-query acquisition function. We present an epsilon-greedy procedure for Bayesian optimisation in batch settings in which the black-box function can be evaluated multiple times in parallel. Our epsilon-shotgun algorithm leverages the model's prediction, uncertainty, and the approximated rate of change of the landscape to determine the spread of batch solutions to be distributed around a putative location. The initial target location is selected either in an exploitative fashion on the mean prediction, or -- with probability epsilon -- from elsewhere in the design space. This results in locations that are more densely sampled in regions where the function is changing rapidly and in locations predicted to be good (i.e close to predicted optima), with more scattered samples in regions where the function is flatter and/or of poorer quality. We empirically evaluate the epsilon-shotgun methods on a range of synthetic functions and two real-world problems, finding that they perform at least as well as state-of-the-art batch methods and in many cases exceed their performance.

This paper presents a continuous-time optimal control framework for the generation of reference trajectories in driving scenarios with uncertainty. A previous work presented a discrete-time stochastic generator for autonomous vehicles; those results are extended to continuous time to ensure the robustness of the generator in a real-time setting. We show that the stochastic model in continuous time can capture the uncertainty of information by producing better results, limiting the risk of violating the problem's constraints compared to a discrete approach. Dynamic solvers provide faster computation and the continuous-time model is more robust to a wider variety of driving scenarios than the discrete-time model, as it can handle further time horizons, which allows trajectory planning outside the framework of urban driving scenarios.

Language models (LMs) perform well on standardized coding benchmarks but struggle with real-world software engineering tasks such as resolving GitHub issues in SWE-Bench, especially when model parameters are less than 100B. While smaller models are preferable in practice due to their lower computational cost, improving their performance remains challenging. Existing approaches primarily rely on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with high-quality data, which is expensive to curate at scale. An alternative is test-time scaling: generating multiple outputs, scoring them using a verifier, and selecting the best one. Although effective, this strategy often requires excessive sampling and costly scoring, limiting its practical application. We propose Evolutionary Test-Time Scaling (EvoScale), a sample-efficient method that treats generation as an evolutionary process. By iteratively refining outputs via selection and mutation, EvoScale shifts the output distribution toward higher-scoring regions, reducing the number of samples needed to find correct solutions. To reduce the overhead from repeatedly sampling and selection, we train the model to self-evolve using reinforcement learning (RL). Rather than relying on external verifiers at inference time, the model learns to self-improve the scores of its own generations across iterations. Evaluated on SWE-Bench-Verified, EvoScale enables our 32B model, Satori-SWE-32B, to match or exceed the performance of models with over 100B parameters while using a few samples. Code, data, and models will be fully open-sourced.

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the influence on the trustworthiness of generated responses remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating how increased examples influence predictive uncertainty, an essential aspect in trustworthiness. We begin by systematically quantifying the uncertainty of ICL with varying shot counts, analyzing the impact of example quantity. Through uncertainty decomposition, we introduce a novel perspective on performance enhancement, with a focus on epistemic uncertainty (EU). Our results reveal that additional examples reduce total uncertainty in both simple and complex tasks by injecting task-specific knowledge, thereby diminishing EU and enhancing performance. For complex tasks, these advantages emerge only after addressing the increased noise and uncertainty associated with longer inputs. Finally, we explore the evolution of internal confidence across layers, unveiling the mechanisms driving the reduction in uncertainty.

Advancing LLM reasoning skills has captivated wide interest. However, current post-training techniques rely heavily on supervisory signals, such as outcome supervision or auxiliary reward models, which face the problem of scalability and high annotation costs. This motivates us to enhance LLM reasoning without the need for external supervision. We introduce a generalizable and purely unsupervised self-training framework, named Genius. Without external auxiliary, Genius requires to seek the optimal response sequence in a stepwise manner and optimize the LLM. To explore the potential steps and exploit the optimal ones, Genius introduces a stepwise foresight re-sampling strategy to sample and estimate the step value by simulating future outcomes. Further, we recognize that the unsupervised setting inevitably induces the intrinsic noise and uncertainty. To provide a robust optimization, we propose an advantage-calibrated optimization (ACO) loss function to mitigate estimation inconsistencies. Combining these techniques together, Genius provides an advanced initial step towards self-improve LLM reasoning with general queries and without supervision, revolutionizing reasoning scaling laws given the vast availability of general queries. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/Genius.

Diffusion models achieve great success in generating diverse and high-fidelity images. The performance improvements come with low generation speed per image, which hinders the application diffusion models in real-time scenarios. While some certain predictions benefit from the full computation of the model in each sample iteration, not every iteration requires the same amount of computation, potentially leading to computation waste. In this work, we propose DeeDiff, an early exiting framework that adaptively allocates computation resources in each sampling step to improve the generation efficiency of diffusion models. Specifically, we introduce a timestep-aware uncertainty estimation module (UEM) for diffusion models which is attached to each intermediate layer to estimate the prediction uncertainty of each layer. The uncertainty is regarded as the signal to decide if the inference terminates. Moreover, we propose uncertainty-aware layer-wise loss to fill the performance gap between full models and early-exited models. With such loss strategy, our model is able to obtain comparable results as full-layer models. Extensive experiments of class-conditional, unconditional, and text-guided generation on several datasets show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance and efficiency trade-off compared with existing early exiting methods on diffusion models. More importantly, our method even brings extra benefits to baseline models and obtains better performance on CIFAR-10 and Celeb-A datasets. Full code and model are released for reproduction.

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Health Indicators (HIs) are essential for predicting system failures in predictive maintenance. While methods like RaPP (Reconstruction along Projected Pathways) improve traditional HI approaches by leveraging autoencoder latent spaces, their performance can be hindered by both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates uncertainty quantification into autoencoder-based latent spaces, enhancing RaPP-generated HIs. We demonstrate that separating aleatoric uncertainty from epistemic uncertainty and cross combining HI information is the driver of accuracy improvements in Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Our method employs both standard and variational autoencoders to construct these HIs, which are then used to train a machine learning model for RUL prediction. Benchmarked on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan dataset, our approach outperforms traditional HI-based methods and end-to-end RUL prediction models and is competitive with RUL estimation methods. These results underscore the importance of uncertainty quantification in health assessment and showcase its significant impact on predictive performance when incorporated into the HI construction process.

Robust optimization provides a mathematical framework for modeling and solving decision-making problems under worst-case uncertainty. This work addresses two-stage robust optimization (2RO) problems (also called adjustable robust optimization), wherein first-stage and second-stage decisions are made before and after uncertainty is realized, respectively. This results in a nested min-max-min optimization problem which is extremely challenging computationally, especially when the decisions are discrete. We propose Neur2RO, an efficient machine learning-driven instantiation of column-and-constraint generation (CCG), a classical iterative algorithm for 2RO. Specifically, we learn to estimate the value function of the second-stage problem via a novel neural network architecture that is easy to optimize over by design. Embedding our neural network into CCG yields high-quality solutions quickly as evidenced by experiments on two 2RO benchmarks, knapsack and capital budgeting. For knapsack, Neur2RO finds solutions that are within roughly 2% of the best-known values in a few seconds compared to the three hours of the state-of-the-art exact branch-and-price algorithm; for larger and more complex instances, Neur2RO finds even better solutions. For capital budgeting, Neur2RO outperforms three variants of the k-adaptability algorithm, particularly on the largest instances, with a 10 to 100-fold reduction in solution time. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/khalil-research/Neur2RO.

We study the problem of constrained efficient global optimization, where both the objective and constraints are expensive black-box functions that can be learned with Gaussian processes. We propose CONFIG (CONstrained efFIcient Global Optimization), a simple and effective algorithm to solve it. Under certain regularity assumptions, we show that our algorithm enjoys the same cumulative regret bound as that in the unconstrained case and similar cumulative constraint violation upper bounds. For commonly used Matern and Squared Exponential kernels, our bounds are sublinear and allow us to derive a convergence rate to the optimal solution of the original constrained problem. In addition, our method naturally provides a scheme to declare infeasibility when the original black-box optimization problem is infeasible. Numerical experiments on sampled instances from the Gaussian process, artificial numerical problems, and a black-box building controller tuning problem all demonstrate the competitive performance of our algorithm. Compared to the other state-of-the-art methods, our algorithm significantly improves the theoretical guarantees, while achieving competitive empirical performance.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is typically used to optimize an unknown function f that is noisy and costly to evaluate, by exploiting an acquisition function that must be maximized at each optimization step. Even if provably asymptotically optimal BO algorithms are efficient at optimizing low-dimensional functions, scaling them to high-dimensional spaces remains an open problem, often tackled by assuming an additive structure for f. By doing so, BO algorithms typically introduce additional restrictive assumptions on the additive structure that reduce their applicability domain. This paper contains two main contributions: (i) we relax the restrictive assumptions on the additive structure of f without weakening the maximization guarantees of the acquisition function, and (ii) we address the over-exploration problem for decentralized BO algorithms. To these ends, we propose DuMBO, an asymptotically optimal decentralized BO algorithm that achieves very competitive performance against state-of-the-art BO algorithms, especially when the additive structure of f comprises high-dimensional factors.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable reward (RLVR) has become a promising paradigm for post-training large language models (LLMs) to improve their reasoning capability. However, when the rollout accuracy is low on hard problems, the reward becomes sparse, limiting learning efficiency and causing exploration bottlenecks. Existing approaches either rely on teacher models for distillation or filter out difficult problems, which limits scalability or restricts reasoning improvement through exploration. We propose EvoCoT, a self-evolving curriculum learning framework based on two-stage chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning optimization. EvoCoT constrains the exploration space by self-generating and verifying CoT trajectories, then gradually shortens CoT steps to expand the space in a controlled way. The framework enables LLMs to stably learn from initially unsolved hard problems under sparse rewards. We apply EvoCoT to multiple LLM families, including Qwen, DeepSeek, and Llama. Experiments show that EvoCoT enables LLMs to solve previously unsolved problems, improves reasoning capability without external CoT supervision, and is compatible with various RL fine-tuning methods. We release the source code to support future research.

Recent advances in large multimodal models (LMMs) have enabled impressive reasoning and perception abilities, yet most existing training pipelines still depend on human-curated data or externally verified reward models, limiting their autonomy and scalability. In this work, we strive to improve LMM reasoning capabilities in a purely unsupervised fashion (without any annotated data or reward distillation). To this end, we propose a self-evolving framework, named EvoLMM, that instantiates two cooperative agents from a single backbone model: a Proposer, which generates diverse, image-grounded questions, and a Solver, which solves them through internal consistency, where learning proceeds through a continuous self-rewarding process. This dynamic feedback encourages both the generation of informative queries and the refinement of structured reasoning without relying on ground-truth or human judgments. When using the popular Qwen2.5-VL as the base model, our EvoLMM yields consistent gains upto sim3\% on multimodal math-reasoning benchmarks, including ChartQA, MathVista, and MathVision, using only raw training images. We hope our simple yet effective approach will serve as a solid baseline easing future research in self-improving LMMs in a fully-unsupervised fashion. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/mbzuai-oryx/EvoLMM.

Both online and offline RLHF methods such as PPO and DPO have been extremely successful in aligning AI with human preferences. Despite their success, the existing methods suffer from a fundamental problem that their optimal solution is highly task-dependent (i.e., not robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks). Here we address this challenge by proposing Self-Improving Robust Preference Optimization SRPO, a practical and mathematically principled offline RLHF framework that is completely robust to the changes in the task. The key idea of SRPO is to cast the problem of learning from human preferences as a self-improvement process, which can be mathematically expressed in terms of a min-max objective that aims at joint optimization of self-improvement policy and the generative policy in an adversarial fashion. The solution for this optimization problem is independent of the training task and thus it is robust to its changes. We then show that this objective can be re-expressed in the form of a non-adversarial offline loss which can be optimized using standard supervised optimization techniques at scale without any need for reward model and online inference. We show the effectiveness of SRPO in terms of AI Win-Rate (WR) against human (GOLD) completions. In particular, when SRPO is evaluated on the OOD XSUM dataset, it outperforms the celebrated DPO by a clear margin of 15% after 5 self-revisions, achieving WR of 90%.

We present evidence of substantial benefit from efficient exploration in gathering human feedback to improve large language models. In our experiments, an agent sequentially generates queries while fitting a reward model to the feedback received. Our best-performing agent generates queries using double Thompson sampling, with uncertainty represented by an epistemic neural network. Our results demonstrate that efficient exploration enables high levels of performance with far fewer queries. Further, both uncertainty estimation and the choice of exploration scheme play critical roles.

We present Self-Play Preference Optimization (SPO), an algorithm for reinforcement learning from human feedback. Our approach is minimalist in that it does not require training a reward model nor unstable adversarial training and is therefore rather simple to implement. Our approach is maximalist in that it provably handles non-Markovian, intransitive, and stochastic preferences while being robust to the compounding errors that plague offline approaches to sequential prediction. To achieve the preceding qualities, we build upon the concept of a Minimax Winner (MW), a notion of preference aggregation from the social choice theory literature that frames learning from preferences as a zero-sum game between two policies. By leveraging the symmetry of this game, we prove that rather than using the traditional technique of dueling two policies to compute the MW, we can simply have a single agent play against itself while maintaining strong convergence guarantees. Practically, this corresponds to sampling multiple trajectories from a policy, asking a rater or preference model to compare them, and then using the proportion of wins as the reward for a particular trajectory. We demonstrate that on a suite of continuous control tasks, we are able to learn significantly more efficiently than reward-model based approaches while maintaining robustness to the intransitive and stochastic preferences that frequently occur in practice when aggregating human judgments.

Dueling bandits is a prominent framework for decision-making involving preferential feedback, a valuable feature that fits various applications involving human interaction, such as ranking, information retrieval, and recommendation systems. While substantial efforts have been made to minimize the cumulative regret in dueling bandits, a notable gap in the current research is the absence of regret bounds that account for the inherent uncertainty in pairwise comparisons between the dueling arms. Intuitively, greater uncertainty suggests a higher level of difficulty in the problem. To bridge this gap, this paper studies the problem of contextual dueling bandits, where the binary comparison of dueling arms is generated from a generalized linear model (GLM). We propose a new SupLinUCB-type algorithm that enjoys computational efficiency and a variance-aware regret bound tilde Obig(dsum_{t=1^Tsigma_t^2} + dbig), where sigma_t is the variance of the pairwise comparison in round t, d is the dimension of the context vectors, and T is the time horizon. Our regret bound naturally aligns with the intuitive expectation in scenarios where the comparison is deterministic, the algorithm only suffers from an tilde O(d) regret. We perform empirical experiments on synthetic data to confirm the advantage of our method over previous variance-agnostic algorithms.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable general performance, enabling smaller models to achieve capabilities comparable to their larger counterparts remains a critical challenge. For humans, iterative refinement of problem analysis and responses is a common strategy to enhance answer quality. However, we observe that existing LLMs exhibit limited ability to refine their outputs for quality improvement. In this paper, we first investigate mechanisms to unlock and progressively enhance self-refinement ability in smaller models within an iterative preference optimization framework, aiming to bridge the performance gap with larger models. To this end, we propose EVOLVE, a novel post-training and inference framework that iteratively integrates preference training with self-refinement-driven data collection. During training, EVOLVE strengthens the model's direct question-answering ability while simultaneously unlocking its self-refinement potential. At inference, the framework leverages this capability to generate progressively refined responses, which are filtered to construct datasets for subsequent rounds of preference training. Experiments demonstrate EVOLVE's exceptional performance: when applied to Llama-3.1-8B base model and under the self-refinement setting, it surpasses state-of-the-art models including Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct and GPT-4o, achieving a 62.3% length-controlled win rate and 63.3% raw win rate on AlpacaEval 2, along with a 50.3% win rate on Arena-Hard. Furthermore, EVOLVE consistently enhances performance on mathematical reasoning tasks like GSM8K and MATH.

Simulation-based optimization is a widely used method to solve stochastic optimization problems. This method aims to identify an optimal solution by maximizing the expected value of the objective function. However, due to its computational complexity, the function cannot be accurately evaluated directly, hence it is estimated through simulation. Exploiting the enhanced efficiency of Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) compared to classical Monte Carlo simulation, it frequently outpaces classical simulation-based optimization, resulting in notable performance enhancements in various scenarios. In this work, we make use of a quantum-enhanced algorithm for simulation-based optimization and apply it to solve a variant of the classical Newsvendor problem which is known to be NP-hard. Such problems provide the building block for supply chain management, particularly in inventory management and procurement optimization under risks and uncertainty

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) provides a promising solution to learning an agent fully relying on a data-driven paradigm. However, constrained by the limited quality of the offline dataset, its performance is often sub-optimal. Therefore, it is desired to further finetune the agent via extra online interactions before deployment. Unfortunately, offline-to-online RL can be challenging due to two main challenges: constrained exploratory behavior and state-action distribution shift. To this end, we propose a Simple Unified uNcertainty-Guided (SUNG) framework, which naturally unifies the solution to both challenges with the tool of uncertainty. Specifically, SUNG quantifies uncertainty via a VAE-based state-action visitation density estimator. To facilitate efficient exploration, SUNG presents a practical optimistic exploration strategy to select informative actions with both high value and high uncertainty. Moreover, SUNG develops an adaptive exploitation method by applying conservative offline RL objectives to high-uncertainty samples and standard online RL objectives to low-uncertainty samples to smoothly bridge offline and online stages. SUNG achieves state-of-the-art online finetuning performance when combined with different offline RL methods, across various environments and datasets in D4RL benchmark.

As instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) evolve, aligning pretrained foundation models presents increasing challenges. Existing alignment strategies, which typically leverage diverse and high-quality data sources, often overlook the intrinsic uncertainty of tasks, learning all data samples equally. This may lead to suboptimal data efficiency and model performance. In response, we propose uncertainty-aware learning (UAL) to improve the model alignment of different task scenarios, by introducing the sample uncertainty (elicited from more capable LLMs). We implement UAL in a simple fashion -- adaptively setting the label smoothing value of training according to the uncertainty of individual samples. Analysis shows that our UAL indeed facilitates better token clustering in the feature space, validating our hypothesis. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks demonstrate that our UAL significantly and consistently outperforms standard supervised fine-tuning. Notably, LLMs aligned in a mixed scenario have achieved an average improvement of 10.62\% on high-entropy tasks (i.e., AlpacaEval leaderboard), and 1.81\% on complex low-entropy tasks (i.e., MetaMath and GSM8K).

Meta-Bayesian optimisation (meta-BO) aims to improve the sample efficiency of Bayesian optimisation by leveraging data from related tasks. While previous methods successfully meta-learn either a surrogate model or an acquisition function independently, joint training of both components remains an open challenge. This paper proposes the first end-to-end differentiable meta-BO framework that generalises neural processes to learn acquisition functions via transformer architectures. We enable this end-to-end framework with reinforcement learning (RL) to tackle the lack of labelled acquisition data. Early on, we notice that training transformer-based neural processes from scratch with RL is challenging due to insufficient supervision, especially when rewards are sparse. We formalise this claim with a combinatorial analysis showing that the widely used notion of regret as a reward signal exhibits a logarithmic sparsity pattern in trajectory lengths. To tackle this problem, we augment the RL objective with an auxiliary task that guides part of the architecture to learn a valid probabilistic model as an inductive bias. We demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art regret results against various baselines in experiments on standard hyperparameter optimisation tasks and also outperforms others in the real-world problems of mixed-integer programming tuning, antibody design, and logic synthesis for electronic design automation.

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) often struggle to adapt to new dynamic behaviors caused by parameter changes in the underlying physical system, even when these dynamics are similar to previously observed behaviors. This problem becomes more challenging when the changing parameters are unobserved, meaning their value or influence cannot be directly measured when collecting data. To address this issue, we introduce Neural Context Flow (NCF), a robust and interpretable Meta-Learning framework that includes uncertainty estimation. NCF uses Taylor expansion to enable contextual self-modulation, allowing context vectors to influence dynamics from other domains while also modulating themselves. After establishing theoretical guarantees, we empirically test NCF and compare it to related adaptation methods. Our results show that NCF achieves state-of-the-art Out-of-Distribution performance on 5 out of 6 linear and non-linear benchmark problems. Through extensive experiments, we explore the flexible model architecture of NCF and the encoded representations within the learned context vectors. Our findings highlight the potential implications of NCF for foundational models in the physical sciences, offering a promising approach to improving the adaptability and generalization of NODEs in various scientific applications. Our code is openly available at https://github.com/ddrous/ncflow.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has proven effective for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs), significantly enhancing their reasoning abilities in domains such as mathematics and code generation. A crucial factor influencing RL fine-tuning success is the training curriculum: the order in which training problems are presented. While random curricula serve as common baselines, they remain suboptimal; manually designed curricula often rely heavily on heuristics, and online filtering methods can be computationally prohibitive. To address these limitations, we propose Self-Evolving Curriculum (SEC), an automatic curriculum learning method that learns a curriculum policy concurrently with the RL fine-tuning process. Our approach formulates curriculum selection as a non-stationary Multi-Armed Bandit problem, treating each problem category (e.g., difficulty level or problem type) as an individual arm. We leverage the absolute advantage from policy gradient methods as a proxy measure for immediate learning gain. At each training step, the curriculum policy selects categories to maximize this reward signal and is updated using the TD(0) method. Across three distinct reasoning domains: planning, inductive reasoning, and mathematics, our experiments demonstrate that SEC significantly improves models' reasoning capabilities, enabling better generalization to harder, out-of-distribution test problems. Additionally, our approach achieves better skill balance when fine-tuning simultaneously on multiple reasoning domains. These findings highlight SEC as a promising strategy for RL fine-tuning of LLMs.

Batch Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a successful technique for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. Asynchronous BO can reduce wallclock time by starting a new evaluation as soon as another finishes, thus maximising resource utilisation. To maximise resource allocation, we develop a novel asynchronous BO method, AEGiS (Asynchronous epsilon-Greedy Global Search) that combines greedy search, exploiting the surrogate's mean prediction, with Thompson sampling and random selection from the approximate Pareto set describing the trade-off between exploitation (surrogate mean prediction) and exploration (surrogate posterior variance). We demonstrate empirically the efficacy of AEGiS on synthetic benchmark problems, meta-surrogate hyperparameter tuning problems and real-world problems, showing that AEGiS generally outperforms existing methods for asynchronous BO. When a single worker is available performance is no worse than BO using expected improvement.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has contributed greatly to improving model performance by suggesting promising hyperparameter configurations iteratively based on observations from multiple training trials. However, only partial knowledge (i.e., the measured performances of trained models and their hyperparameter configurations) from previous trials is transferred. On the other hand, Self-Distillation (SD) only transfers partial knowledge learned by the task model itself. To fully leverage the various knowledge gained from all training trials, we propose the BOSS framework, which combines BO and SD. BOSS suggests promising hyperparameter configurations through BO and carefully selects pre-trained models from previous trials for SD, which are otherwise abandoned in the conventional BO process. BOSS achieves significantly better performance than both BO and SD in a wide range of tasks including general image classification, learning with noisy labels, semi-supervised learning, and medical image analysis tasks.

Self-improvement methods enable large language models (LLMs) to generate solutions themselves and iteratively train on filtered, high-quality rationales. This process proves effective and reduces the reliance on human supervision in LLMs' reasoning, but the performance soon plateaus. We delve into the process and find that models tend to over-sample on easy queries and under-sample on queries they have yet to master. As iterations proceed, this imbalance in sampling is exacerbated, leading to a long-tail distribution where solutions to difficult queries almost diminish. This phenomenon limits the performance gain of self-improving models. A straightforward solution is brute-force sampling to balance the distribution, which significantly raises computational costs. In this paper, we introduce Guided Self-Improvement (GSI), a strategy aimed at improving the efficiency of sampling challenging heavy-tailed data. It leverages Socratic-style guidance signals to help LLM reasoning with complex queries, reducing the exploration effort and minimizing computational overhead. Experiments on four models across diverse mathematical tasks show that GSI strikes a balance between performance and efficiency, while also being effective on held-out tasks.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

The core challenge of high-dimensional and expensive black-box optimization (BBO) is how to obtain better performance faster with little function evaluation cost. The essence of the problem is how to design an efficient optimization strategy tailored to the target task. This paper designs a powerful optimization framework to automatically learn the optimization strategies from the target or cheap surrogate task without human intervention. However, current methods are weak for this due to poor representation of optimization strategy. To achieve this, 1) drawing on the mechanism of genetic algorithm, we propose a deep neural network framework called B2Opt, which has a stronger representation of optimization strategies based on survival of the fittest; 2) B2Opt can utilize the cheap surrogate functions of the target task to guide the design of the efficient optimization strategies. Compared to the state-of-the-art BBO baselines, B2Opt can achieve multiple orders of magnitude performance improvement with less function evaluation cost. We validate our proposal on high-dimensional synthetic functions and two real-world applications. We also find that deep B2Opt performs better than shallow ones.

We study uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations subject to domain uncertainty. We parameterize the random domain using the model recently considered by Chernov and Le (2024) as well as Harbrecht, Schmidlin, and Schwab (2024) in which the input random field is assumed to belong to a Gevrey smoothness class. This approach has the advantage of being substantially more general than models which assume a particular parametric representation of the input random field such as a Karhunen-Loeve series expansion. We consider both the Poisson equation as well as the heat equation and design randomly shifted lattice quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) cubature rules for the computation of the expected solution under domain uncertainty. We show that these QMC rules exhibit dimension-independent, essentially linear cubature convergence rates in this framework. In addition, we complete the error analysis by taking into account the approximation errors incurred by dimension truncation of the random input field and finite element discretization. Numerical experiments are presented to confirm the theoretical rates.

Accurate ocean modeling and coastal hazard prediction depend on high-resolution bathymetric data; yet, current worldwide datasets are too coarse for exact numerical simulations. While recent deep learning advances have improved earth observation data resolution, existing methods struggle with the unique challenges of producing detailed ocean floor maps, especially in maintaining physical structure consistency and quantifying uncertainties. This work presents a novel uncertainty-aware mechanism using spatial blocks to efficiently capture local bathymetric complexity based on block-based conformal prediction. Using the Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) architecture, the integration of this uncertainty quantification framework yields spatially adaptive confidence estimates while preserving topographical features via discrete latent representations. With smaller uncertainty widths in well-characterized areas and appropriately larger bounds in areas of complex seafloor structures, the block-based design adapts uncertainty estimates to local bathymetric complexity. Compared to conventional techniques, experimental results over several ocean regions show notable increases in both reconstruction quality and uncertainty estimation reliability. This framework increases the reliability of bathymetric reconstructions by preserving structural integrity while offering spatially adaptive uncertainty estimates, so opening the path for more solid climate modeling and coastal hazard assessment.

Several recent advances in AI systems (e.g., Tree-of-Thoughts and Program-Aided Language Models) solve problems by providing a "scaffolding" program that structures multiple calls to language models to generate better outputs. A scaffolding program is written in a programming language such as Python. In this work, we use a language-model-infused scaffolding program to improve itself. We start with a seed "improver" that improves an input program according to a given utility function by querying a language model several times and returning the best solution. We then run this seed improver to improve itself. Across a small set of downstream tasks, the resulting improved improver generates programs with significantly better performance than its seed improver. Afterward, we analyze the variety of self-improvement strategies proposed by the language model, including beam search, genetic algorithms, and simulated annealing. Since the language models themselves are not altered, this is not full recursive self-improvement. Nonetheless, it demonstrates that a modern language model, GPT-4 in our proof-of-concept experiments, is capable of writing code that can call itself to improve itself. We critically consider concerns around the development of self-improving technologies and evaluate the frequency with which the generated code bypasses a sandbox.

The past decade has seen vast progress in deep reinforcement learning (RL) on the back of algorithms manually designed by human researchers. Recently, it has been shown that it is possible to meta-learn update rules, with the hope of discovering algorithms that can perform well on a wide range of RL tasks. Despite impressive initial results from algorithms such as Learned Policy Gradient (LPG), there remains a generalization gap when these algorithms are applied to unseen environments. In this work, we examine how characteristics of the meta-training distribution impact the generalization performance of these algorithms. Motivated by this analysis and building on ideas from Unsupervised Environment Design (UED), we propose a novel approach for automatically generating curricula to maximize the regret of a meta-learned optimizer, in addition to a novel approximation of regret, which we name algorithmic regret (AR). The result is our method, General RL Optimizers Obtained Via Environment Design (GROOVE). In a series of experiments, we show that GROOVE achieves superior generalization to LPG, and evaluate AR against baseline metrics from UED, identifying it as a critical component of environment design in this setting. We believe this approach is a step towards the discovery of truly general RL algorithms, capable of solving a wide range of real-world environments.

The optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) is a family of risk measures that cover important examples such as entropic risk, conditional value-at-risk and mean-variance models. In this paper, we propose a new episodic risk-sensitive reinforcement learning formulation based on tabular Markov decision processes with recursive OCEs. We design an efficient learning algorithm for this problem based on value iteration and upper confidence bound. We derive an upper bound on the regret of the proposed algorithm, and also establish a minimax lower bound. Our bounds show that the regret rate achieved by our proposed algorithm has optimal dependence on the number of episodes and the number of actions.

Assessing sampling uncertainty in extremum estimation can be challenging when the asymptotic variance is not analytically tractable. Bootstrap inference offers a feasible solution but can be computationally costly especially when the model is complex. This paper uses iterates of a specially designed stochastic optimization algorithm as draws from which both point estimates and bootstrap standard errors can be computed in a single run. The draws are generated by the gradient and Hessian computed from batches of data that are resampled at each iteration. We show that these draws yield consistent estimates and asymptotically valid frequentist inference for a large class of regular problems. The algorithm provides accurate standard errors in simulation examples and empirical applications at low computational costs. The draws from the algorithm also provide a convenient way to detect data irregularities.

Recent progress in large-scale language models has enabled breakthroughs in previously intractable computer programming tasks. Prior work in meta-learning and neural architecture search has led to substantial successes across various task domains, spawning myriad approaches for algorithmically optimizing the design and learning dynamics of deep learning models. At the intersection of these research areas, we implement a code-generating language model with the ability to modify its own source code. Self-programming AI algorithms have been of interest since the dawn of AI itself. Although various theoretical formulations of generalized self-programming AI have been posed, no such system has been successfully implemented to date under real-world computational constraints. Applying AI-based code generation to AI itself, we develop and experimentally validate the first practical implementation of a self-programming AI system. We empirically show that a self-programming AI implemented using a code generation model can successfully modify its own source code to improve performance and program sub-models to perform auxiliary tasks. Our model can self-modify various properties including model architecture, computational capacity, and learning dynamics.

This paper introduces Self-aware Knowledge Retrieval (SeaKR), a novel adaptive RAG model that extracts self-aware uncertainty of LLMs from their internal states. SeaKR activates retrieval when the LLMs present high self-aware uncertainty for generation. To effectively integrate retrieved knowledge snippets, SeaKR re-ranks them based on LLM's self-aware uncertainty to preserve the snippet that reduces their uncertainty to the utmost. To facilitate solving complex tasks that require multiple retrievals, SeaKR utilizes their self-aware uncertainty to choose among different reasoning strategies. Our experiments on both complex and simple Question Answering datasets show that SeaKR outperforms existing adaptive RAG methods. We release our code at https://github.com/THU-KEG/SeaKR.

Progress in many task domains emerges from repeated revisions to previous solution attempts. Training agents that can reliably self-improve over such sequences at inference-time is a natural target for reinforcement learning (RL), yet the naive approach assumes a fixed maximum iteration depth, which can be both costly and arbitrary. We present Exploratory Iteration (ExIt), a family of autocurriculum RL methods that directly exploits the recurrent structure of self-improvement tasks to train LLMs to perform multi-step self-improvement at inference-time while only training on the most informative single-step iterations. ExIt grows a task space by selectively sampling the most informative intermediate, partial histories encountered during an episode for continued iteration, treating these starting points as new self-iteration task instances to train a self-improvement policy. ExIt can further pair with explicit exploration mechanisms to sustain greater task diversity. Across several domains, encompassing competition math, multi-turn tool-use, and machine learning engineering, we demonstrate that ExIt strategies, starting from either a single or many task instances, can produce policies exhibiting strong inference-time self-improvement on held-out task instances, and the ability to iterate towards higher performance over a step budget extending beyond the average iteration depth encountered during training.

We consider the problem of how a teacher algorithm can enable an unknown Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) student to become good at a skill over a wide range of diverse environments. To do so, we study how a teacher algorithm can learn to generate a learning curriculum, whereby it sequentially samples parameters controlling a stochastic procedural generation of environments. Because it does not initially know the capacities of its student, a key challenge for the teacher is to discover which environments are easy, difficult or unlearnable, and in what order to propose them to maximize the efficiency of learning over the learnable ones. To achieve this, this problem is transformed into a surrogate continuous bandit problem where the teacher samples environments in order to maximize absolute learning progress of its student. We present a new algorithm modeling absolute learning progress with Gaussian mixture models (ALP-GMM). We also adapt existing algorithms and provide a complete study in the context of DRL. Using parameterized variants of the BipedalWalker environment, we study their efficiency to personalize a learning curriculum for different learners (embodiments), their robustness to the ratio of learnable/unlearnable environments, and their scalability to non-linear and high-dimensional parameter spaces. Videos and code are available at https://github.com/flowersteam/teachDeepRL.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Evolutionary Reinforcement Learning (ERL), which integrates Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) for optimization, has demonstrated remarkable performance advancements. By fusing both approaches, ERL has emerged as a promising research direction. This survey offers a comprehensive overview of the diverse research branches in ERL. Specifically, we systematically summarize recent advancements in related algorithms and identify three primary research directions: EA-assisted Optimization of RL, RL-assisted Optimization of EA, and synergistic optimization of EA and RL. Following that, we conduct an in-depth analysis of each research direction, organizing multiple research branches. We elucidate the problems that each branch aims to tackle and how the integration of EAs and RL addresses these challenges. In conclusion, we discuss potential challenges and prospective future research directions across various research directions. To facilitate researchers in delving into ERL, we organize the algorithms and codes involved on https://github.com/yeshenpy/Awesome-Evolutionary-Reinforcement-Learning.

Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) address the challenge of model uncertainty by optimizing the worst-case performance over an uncertainty set of MDPs. In this paper, we focus on the robust average-reward MDPs under the model-free setting. We first theoretically characterize the structure of solutions to the robust average-reward Bellman equation, which is essential for our later convergence analysis. We then design two model-free algorithms, robust relative value iteration (RVI) TD and robust RVI Q-learning, and theoretically prove their convergence to the optimal solution. We provide several widely used uncertainty sets as examples, including those defined by the contamination model, total variation, Chi-squared divergence, Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and Wasserstein distance.

Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) is a theoretically promising approach for black-box optimization; however, the confidence parameter beta is considerably large in the theorem and chosen heuristically in practice. Then, randomized GP-UCB (RGP-UCB) uses a randomized confidence parameter, which follows the Gamma distribution, to mitigate the impact of manually specifying beta. This study first generalizes the regret analysis of RGP-UCB to a wider class of distributions, including the Gamma distribution. Furthermore, we propose improved RGP-UCB (IRGP-UCB) based on a two-parameter exponential distribution, which achieves tighter Bayesian regret bounds. IRGP-UCB does not require an increase in the confidence parameter in terms of the number of iterations, which avoids over-exploration in the later iterations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of IRGP-UCB through extensive experiments.

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by LLMs, have also raised severe concerns for the trustworthiness of LLMs', especially in safety-, security- and reliability-sensitive scenarios, potentially hindering real-world adoptions. While uncertainty estimation has shown its potential for interpreting the prediction risks made by general machine learning (ML) models, little is known about whether and to what extent it can help explore an LLM's capabilities and counteract its undesired behavior. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we initiate an exploratory study on the risk assessment of LLMs from the lens of uncertainty. In particular, we experiment with twelve uncertainty estimation methods and four LLMs on four prominent natural language processing (NLP) tasks to investigate to what extent uncertainty estimation techniques could help characterize the prediction risks of LLMs. Our findings validate the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation for revealing LLMs' uncertain/non-factual predictions. In addition to general NLP tasks, we extensively conduct experiments with four LLMs for code generation on two datasets. We find that uncertainty estimation can potentially uncover buggy programs generated by LLMs. Insights from our study shed light on future design and development for reliable LLMs, facilitating further research toward enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs.

Recent studies operationalize self-improvement through coding agents that edit their own codebases. They grow a tree of self-modifications through expansion strategies that favor higher software engineering benchmark performance, assuming that this implies more promising subsequent self-modifications. However, we identify a mismatch between the agent's self-improvement potential (metaproductivity) and its coding benchmark performance, namely the Metaproductivity-Performance Mismatch. Inspired by Huxley's concept of clade, we propose a metric (CMP) that aggregates the benchmark performances of the descendants of an agent as an indicator of its potential for self-improvement. We show that, in our self-improving coding agent development setting, access to the true CMP is sufficient to simulate how the G\"odel Machine would behave under certain assumptions. We introduce the Huxley-G\"odel Machine (HGM), which, by estimating CMP and using it as guidance, searches the tree of self-modifications. On SWE-bench Verified and Polyglot, HGM outperforms prior self-improving coding agent development methods while using less wall-clock time. Last but not least, HGM demonstrates strong transfer to other coding datasets and large language models. The agent optimized by HGM on SWE-bench Verified with GPT-5-mini and evaluated on SWE-bench Lite with GPT-5 achieves human-level performance, matching the best officially checked results of human-engineered coding agents. Our code is available at https://github.com/metauto-ai/HGM.

LLM agents are widely deployed in complex interactive tasks, yet privacy constraints often preclude centralized optimization and co-evolution across dynamic environments. While Federated Learning (FL) has proven effective on static datasets, its extension to the open-ended self-evolution of agents remains underexplored. Directly applying standard FL is challenging: heterogeneous tasks and sparse, trajectory-level rewards introduce severe gradient conflicts, destabilizing the global optimization process. To bridge this gap, we propose Fed-SE, a Federated Self-Evolution framework for LLM agents. Fed-SE establishes a local evolution-global aggregation paradigm. Locally, agents employ parameter-efficient fine-tuning on filtered, high-return trajectories to achieve stable gradient updates. Globally, Fed-SE aggregates updates within a low-rank subspace that disentangles environment-specific dynamics, effectively reducing negative transfer across clients. Experiments across five heterogeneous environments demonstrate that Fed-SE improves average task success rates by approximately 18% over federated baselines, validating its effectiveness in robust cross-environment knowledge transfer in privacy-constrained deployments.

Long-form chain-of-thought reasoning has become a cornerstone of advanced reasoning in large language models. While recent verification-refinement frameworks have enabled proprietary models to solve Olympiad-level problems, their effectiveness hinges on strong, reliable verification and correction capabilities, which remain fragile in open-weight, smaller-scale models. This work demonstrates that even with weak verification and refinement capabilities on hard tasks, the reasoning limits of such models can be substantially extended through a probabilistic paradigm we call Deep Self-Evolving Reasoning (DSER). We conceptualize iterative reasoning as a Markov chain, where each step represents a stochastic transition in the solution space. The key insight is that convergence to a correct solution is guaranteed as long as the probability of improvement marginally exceeds that of degradation. By running multiple long-horizon, self-evolving processes in parallel, DSER amplifies these small positive tendencies, enabling the model to asymptotically approach correct answers. Empirically, we apply DSER to the DeepSeek-R1-0528-Qwen3-8B model. On the challenging AIME 2024-2025 benchmark, DSER solves 5 out of 9 previously unsolvable problems and boosts overall performance, enabling this compact model to surpass the single-turn accuracy of its 600B-parameter teacher through majority voting. Beyond its immediate utility for test-time scaling, the DSER framework serves to diagnose the fundamental limitations of current open-weight reasoners. By clearly delineating their shortcomings in self-verification, refinement, and stability, our findings establish a clear research agenda for developing next-generation models with powerful, intrinsic self-evolving capabilities.

Existing theoretical studies on offline reinforcement learning (RL) mostly consider a dataset sampled directly from the target task. In practice, however, data often come from several heterogeneous but related sources. Motivated by this gap, this work aims at rigorously understanding offline RL with multiple datasets that are collected from randomly perturbed versions of the target task instead of from itself. An information-theoretic lower bound is derived, which reveals a necessary requirement on the number of involved sources in addition to that on the number of data samples. Then, a novel HetPEVI algorithm is proposed, which simultaneously considers the sample uncertainties from a finite number of data samples per data source and the source uncertainties due to a finite number of available data sources. Theoretical analyses demonstrate that HetPEVI can solve the target task as long as the data sources collectively provide a good data coverage. Moreover, HetPEVI is demonstrated to be optimal up to a polynomial factor of the horizon length. Finally, the study is extended to offline Markov games and offline robust RL, which demonstrates the generality of the proposed designs and theoretical analyses.

Stochastically Extended Adversarial (SEA) model is introduced by Sachs et al. [2022] as an interpolation between stochastic and adversarial online convex optimization. Under the smoothness condition, they demonstrate that the expected regret of optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) depends on the cumulative stochastic variance sigma_{1:T}^2 and the cumulative adversarial variation Sigma_{1:T}^2 for convex functions. They also provide a slightly weaker bound based on the maximal stochastic variance sigma_{max}^2 and the maximal adversarial variation Sigma_{max}^2 for strongly convex functions. Inspired by their work, we investigate the theoretical guarantees of optimistic online mirror descent (OMD) for the SEA model. For convex and smooth functions, we obtain the same O(sigma_{1:T^2}+Sigma_{1:T^2}) regret bound, without the convexity requirement of individual functions. For strongly convex and smooth functions, we establish an O(min{log (sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2), (sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T}) bound, better than their O((sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T) bound. For exp-concave and smooth functions, we achieve a new O(dlog(sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2)) bound. Owing to the OMD framework, we can further extend our result to obtain dynamic regret guarantees, which are more favorable in non-stationary online scenarios. The attained results allow us to recover excess risk bounds of the stochastic setting and regret bounds of the adversarial setting, and derive new guarantees for many intermediate scenarios.

Any optimization algorithm programming interface can be seen as a black-box function with additional free parameters. In this spirit, simulated annealing (SA) can be implemented in pseudo-code within the dimensions of a single slide with free parameters relating to the annealing schedule. Such an implementation, however, necessarily neglects much of the structure necessary to take advantage of advances in computing resources and algorithmic breakthroughs. Simulated annealing is often introduced in myriad disciplines, from discrete examples like the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) to molecular cluster potential energy exploration or even explorations of a protein's configurational space. Theoretical guarantees also demand a stricter structure in terms of statistical quantities, which cannot simply be left to the user. We will introduce several standard paradigms and demonstrate how these can be "lifted" into a unified framework using object-oriented programming in Python. We demonstrate how clean, interoperable, reproducible programming libraries can be used to access and rapidly iterate on variants of Simulated Annealing in a manner which can be extended to serve as a best practices blueprint or design pattern for a data-driven optimization library.

Neural architecture search (NAS) methods rely on a search strategy for deciding which architectures to evaluate next and a performance estimation strategy for assessing their performance (e.g., using full evaluations, multi-fidelity evaluations, or the one-shot model). In this paper, we focus on the search strategy. We introduce the simple yet powerful evolutionary algorithm of differential evolution to the NAS community. Using the simplest performance evaluation strategy of full evaluations, we comprehensively compare this search strategy to regularized evolution and Bayesian optimization and demonstrate that it yields improved and more robust results for 13 tabular NAS benchmarks based on NAS-Bench-101, NAS-Bench-1Shot1, NAS-Bench-201 and NAS-HPO bench.

This paper focuses on the problem of constrained stochastic optimization. A zeroth order Frank-Wolfe algorithm is proposed, which in addition to the projection-free nature of the vanilla Frank-Wolfe algorithm makes it gradient free. Under convexity and smoothness assumption, we show that the proposed algorithm converges to the optimal objective function at a rate Oleft(1/T^{1/3}right), where T denotes the iteration count. In particular, the primal sub-optimality gap is shown to have a dimension dependence of Oleft(d^{1/3}right), which is the best known dimension dependence among all zeroth order optimization algorithms with one directional derivative per iteration. For non-convex functions, we obtain the Frank-Wolfe gap to be Oleft(d^{1/3}T^{-1/4}right). Experiments on black-box optimization setups demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

Multimodal AI models are increasingly used in fields like healthcare, finance, and autonomous driving, where information is drawn from multiple sources or modalities such as images, texts, audios, videos. However, effectively managing uncertainty - arising from noise, insufficient evidence, or conflicts between modalities - is crucial for reliable decision-making. Current uncertainty-aware machine learning methods leveraging, for example, evidence averaging, or evidence accumulation underestimate uncertainties in high-conflict scenarios. Moreover, the state-of-the-art evidence averaging strategy is not order invariant and fails to scale to multiple modalities. To address these challenges, we propose a novel multimodal learning method with order-invariant evidence fusion and introduce a conflict-based discounting mechanism that reallocates uncertain mass when unreliable modalities are detected. We provide both theoretical analysis and experimental validation, demonstrating that unlike the previous work, the proposed approach effectively distinguishes between conflicting and non-conflicting samples based on the provided uncertainty estimates, and outperforms the previous models in uncertainty-based conflict detection.

Recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown impressive reasoning capabilities. However, further enhancing existing MLLMs necessitates high-quality vision-language datasets with carefully curated task complexities, which are both costly and challenging to scale. Although recent self-improving models that iteratively refine themselves offer a feasible solution, they still suffer from two core challenges: (i) most existing methods augment visual or textual data separately, resulting in discrepancies in data complexity (e.g., over-simplified diagrams paired with redundant textual descriptions); and (ii) the evolution of data and models is also separated, leading to scenarios where models are exposed to tasks with mismatched difficulty levels. To address these issues, we propose C2-Evo, an automatic, closed-loop self-improving framework that jointly evolves both training data and model capabilities. Specifically, given a base dataset and a base model, C2-Evo enhances them by a cross-modal data evolution loop and a data-model evolution loop. The former loop expands the base dataset by generating complex multimodal problems that combine structured textual sub-problems with iteratively specified geometric diagrams, while the latter loop adaptively selects the generated problems based on the performance of the base model, to conduct supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning alternately. Consequently, our method continuously refines its model and training data, and consistently obtains considerable performance gains across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Our code, models, and datasets will be released.

Designing sequences that satisfy multiple, often conflicting, objectives is a central challenge in therapeutic and biomolecular engineering. Existing generative frameworks largely operate in continuous spaces with single-objective guidance, while discrete approaches lack guarantees for multi-objective Pareto optimality. We introduce AReUReDi (Annealed Rectified Updates for Refining Discrete Flows), a discrete optimization algorithm with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the Pareto front. Building on Rectified Discrete Flows (ReDi), AReUReDi combines Tchebycheff scalarization, locally balanced proposals, and annealed Metropolis-Hastings updates to bias sampling toward Pareto-optimal states while preserving distributional invariance. Applied to peptide and SMILES sequence design, AReUReDi simultaneously optimizes up to five therapeutic properties (including affinity, solubility, hemolysis, half-life, and non-fouling) and outperforms both evolutionary and diffusion-based baselines. These results establish AReUReDi as a powerful, sequence-based framework for multi-property biomolecule generation.