Daily Papers

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model fitting algorithm as a function of the data. However, exchangeability is often violated when predictive models are deployed in practice. For example, if the data distribution drifts over time, then the data points are no longer exchangeable; moreover, in such settings, we might want to use a nonsymmetric algorithm that treats recent observations as more relevant. This paper generalizes conformal prediction to deal with both aspects: we employ weighted quantiles to introduce robustness against distribution drift, and design a new randomization technique to allow for algorithms that do not treat data points symmetrically. Our new methods are provably robust, with substantially less loss of coverage when exchangeability is violated due to distribution drift or other challenging features of real data, while also achieving the same coverage guarantees as existing conformal prediction methods if the data points are in fact exchangeable. We demonstrate the practical utility of these new tools with simulations and real-data experiments on electricity and election forecasting.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Tree boosting is a highly effective and widely used machine learning method. In this paper, we describe a scalable end-to-end tree boosting system called XGBoost, which is used widely by data scientists to achieve state-of-the-art results on many machine learning challenges. We propose a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for sparse data and weighted quantile sketch for approximate tree learning. More importantly, we provide insights on cache access patterns, data compression and sharding to build a scalable tree boosting system. By combining these insights, XGBoost scales beyond billions of examples using far fewer resources than existing systems.

Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) forecasting from satellite observations, however, remains challenging due to sparse and irregular sampling caused by cloud masking, as well as the heterogeneous climatic conditions under which crops evolve. In this work, we propose a probabilistic forecasting framework for field-level NDVI prediction under sparse, irregular clear-sky acquisitions. The architecture separates the encoding of historical NDVI and meteorological observations from future exogenous covariates, fusing both representations for multi-step quantile prediction. To address irregular revisit patterns and horizon-dependent uncertainty, we introduce a temporal-distance weighted quantile loss that aligns the training objective with the effective forecasting horizon. In addition, we incorporate cumulative and extreme-weather feature engineering to capture delayed meteorological effects relevant to vegetation response. Experiments on European satellite data show that the proposed approach outperforms statistical, deep learning, and time-series baselines on both pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics. Ablation studies confirm that target history is the primary driver of performance, with meteorological covariates providing additional gains in the full multimodal setting. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/ndvi-forecasting.

In this work, we build on recent advances in distributional reinforcement learning to give a generally applicable, flexible, and state-of-the-art distributional variant of DQN. We achieve this by using quantile regression to approximate the full quantile function for the state-action return distribution. By reparameterizing a distribution over the sample space, this yields an implicitly defined return distribution and gives rise to a large class of risk-sensitive policies. We demonstrate improved performance on the 57 Atari 2600 games in the ALE, and use our algorithm's implicitly defined distributions to study the effects of risk-sensitive policies in Atari games.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a key method for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences through the use of reward models. However, traditional reward models typically generate point estimates, which oversimplify the diversity and complexity of human values and preferences. In this paper, we introduce Quantile Reward Models (QRMs), a novel approach to reward modeling that learns a distribution over rewards instead of a single scalar value. Our method uses quantile regression to estimate a full, potentially multimodal distribution over preferences, providing a more powerful and nuanced representation of preferences. This distributional approach can better capture the diversity of human values, addresses label noise, and accommodates conflicting preferences by modeling them as distinct modes in the distribution. Our experimental results show that QRM outperforms comparable traditional point-estimate models on RewardBench. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the additional information provided by the distributional estimates can be utilized in downstream applications, such as risk-aware reinforcement learning, resulting in LLM policies that generate fewer extremely negative responses. Our code and model are released at https://github.com/Nicolinho/QRM.

Quantile-based reinforcement learning provides an interpretable approach to risk-sensitive decision-making by optimizing a prescribed quantile of the cumulative-return distribution. Despite this appeal, learning under a point quantile objective is challenging: quantiles can change abruptly under small perturbations of the return distribution, and exact quantile-sensitive planning requires computationally demanding distributional optimization. Lower-buffered quantiles alleviate the former difficulty by averaging neighboring quantiles immediately below the target level, providing a smoother surrogate while preserving the underlying point-quantile objective. Existing methods based on this principle, however, remain model-based and rely on explicit return-law planning, limiting their applicability beyond small tabular problems. We develop Deep-BQRL, a model-free distributional reinforcement-learning framework that extends buffered-quantile learning to neural function approximation. The method learns conditional return quantiles directly from sampled transitions, constructs buffered action scores from the relevant region of the learned quantile function, and uses ensemble disagreement to guide exploration. An augmented input representation allows the learned policy to respond to trajectory information without explicitly reproducing the quantile-state recursion required by exact planning. Experiments on an asset-selling optimal-stopping problem and slippery FrozenLake compare Deep-BQRL with model-based UCB-BQRL and tabular PPO and TRPO implementations. In asset selling, Deep-BQRL attains smaller mean cumulative point-quantile policy gaps than PPO and TRPO at the reported target levels, while UCB-BQRL retains the smallest gaps. The learned stopping decisions also vary with the target quantile, providing an interpretable illustration of the method's risk-sensitive behavior.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

The increasing availability of large and complex datasets across many scientific disciplines has led to widespread adoption of machine learning (ML) for prediction. However, most ML algorithms focus on point estimation and provide limited information about predictive uncertainty or the conditional distribution of the response, restricting their ability to characterize rare or extreme outcomes. We develop QXGB, a quantile-based gradient boosting framework, and introduce a convolution smoothed loss within it that estimates conditional quantiles for constructing dense cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), exceedance probabilities, and tail behaviour relevant to extreme outcomes. This approach preserves the computational efficiency of extreme gradient boosting while restoring the Hessian information XGBoost relies on for tree splitting, in turn providing interpretable measures of extreme value and exceedance probability predictions. We derive the gradients and Hessians needed to integrate convolution smoothed quantile loss with different kernel specifications into XGBoost, and with simulated data, benchmark this approach against alternative smoothed quantile regression losses, the native quantile objective in the XGBoost Python package, and independent versus multi-output tree estimation. The practical relevance is illustrated in an application predicting fine particulate matter (PM_{2.5}) in northern California, including periods where levels were elevated due to wildfire smoke. Our results show that convolution smoothed QXGB, particularly when paired with multi-output trees, delivers accurate predictions with near-zero quantile crossing, well-calibrated CDF and exceedance probability estimates, and useful tail characterization for extreme values. Interval estimation is also evaluated as a measure of data spread.

We study the problem of designing minimax procedures in linear regression under the quantile risk. We start by considering the realizable setting with independent Gaussian noise, where for any given noise level and distribution of inputs, we obtain the exact minimax quantile risk for a rich family of error functions and establish the minimaxity of OLS. This improves on the known lower bounds for the special case of square error, and provides us with a lower bound on the minimax quantile risk over larger sets of distributions. Under the square error and a fourth moment assumption on the distribution of inputs, we show that this lower bound is tight over a larger class of problems. Specifically, we prove a matching upper bound on the worst-case quantile risk of a variant of the recently proposed min-max regression procedure, thereby establishing its minimaxity, up to absolute constants. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by extending this result to all p-th power error functions for p in (2, infty). Along the way, we develop a generic analogue to the classical Bayesian method for lower bounding the minimax risk when working with the quantile risk, as well as a tight characterization of the quantiles of the smallest eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrix.

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a parsimonious way. We develop two algorithms for posterior inference that feature varying level of trade-off between estimation precision and computational speed. Using monthly data for the euro area, we establish the good empirical properties of the QFAVAR as a tool for assessing the effects of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks. In particular, QFAVAR short-run tail forecasts are more accurate compared to a FAVAR with symmetric Gaussian errors, as well as univariate quantile autoregressions that ignore comovements among quantiles of macroeconomic variables. We also illustrate how quantile impulse response functions and quantile connectedness measures, resulting from the new model, can be used to implement joint risk scenario analysis.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) strengthens LLM reasoning, but training often oscillates between {entropy collapse} and {entropy explosion}. We trace both hazards to the mean baseline used in value-free RL (e.g., GRPO and DAPO), which improperly penalizes negative-advantage samples under reward outliers. We propose {Quantile Advantage Estimation} (QAE), replacing the mean with a group-wise K-quantile baseline. QAE induces a response-level, two-regime gate: on hard queries (p <= 1 - K) it reinforces rare successes, while on easy queries (p > 1 - K) it targets remaining failures. Under first-order softmax updates, we prove {two-sided entropy safety}, giving lower and upper bounds on one-step entropy change that curb explosion and prevent collapse. Empirically, this minimal modification stabilizes entropy, sparsifies credit assignment (with tuned K, roughly 80% of responses receive zero advantage), and yields sustained pass@1 gains on Qwen3-8B/14B-Base across AIME 2024/2025 and AMC 2023. These results identify {baseline design} -- rather than token-level heuristics -- as the primary mechanism for scaling RLVR.

Semiparametric discrete choice models are widely used in a variety of practical applications. While these models are point identified in the presence of continuous covariates, they can become partially identified when covariates are discrete. In this paper we find that classical estimators, including the maximum score estimator, (Manski (1975)), loose their attractive statistical properties without point identification. First of all, they are not sharp with the estimator converging to an outer region of the identified set, (Komarova (2013)), and in many discrete designs it weakly converges to a random set. Second, they are not robust, with their distribution limit discontinuously changing with respect to the parameters of the model. We propose a novel class of estimators based on the concept of a quantile of a random set, which we show to be both sharp and robust. We demonstrate that our approach extends from cross-sectional settings to classical static and dynamic discrete panel data models.

This work studies the estimation of many statistical quantiles under differential privacy. More precisely, given a distribution and access to i.i.d. samples from it, we study the estimation of the inverse of its cumulative distribution function (the quantile function) at specific points. For instance, this task is of key importance in private data generation. We present two different approaches. The first one consists in privately estimating the empirical quantiles of the samples and using this result as an estimator of the quantiles of the distribution. In particular, we study the statistical properties of the recently published algorithm introduced by Kaplan et al. 2022 that privately estimates the quantiles recursively. The second approach is to use techniques of density estimation in order to uniformly estimate the quantile function on an interval. In particular, we show that there is a tradeoff between the two methods. When we want to estimate many quantiles, it is better to estimate the density rather than estimating the quantile function at specific points.

In this paper, we introduce a conformal prediction method to construct prediction sets in a oneshot federated learning setting. More specifically, we define a quantile-of-quantiles estimator and prove that for any distribution, it is possible to output prediction sets with desired coverage in only one round of communication. To mitigate privacy issues, we also describe a locally differentially private version of our estimator. Finally, over a wide range of experiments, we show that our method returns prediction sets with coverage and length very similar to those obtained in a centralized setting. Overall, these results demonstrate that our method is particularly well-suited to perform conformal predictions in a one-shot federated learning setting.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

We present t_0, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: t0-alpha and t0-beta, respectively 102M and 256M parameters. Both condition their forecasts on target history, past covariates, and known-future covariates, without task-specific retraining. Their transformer layers alternate attention along time and across variates. They produce probabilistic forecasts through quantile predictions. Pretraining combines curated public data with synthetic generator families constructed to contain covariate-to-target dependencies. On GIFT-Eval, t0-alpha reaches an aggregate CRPS of 0.4941, and t0-beta a CRPS of 0.4738 and a MASE of 0.6865, third on both and within 4.0% of the best zero-shot TSFM. On fev-bench they score 42.2 and 46.7 in skill, the latter third again and 2.0 points behind the leader. We analyze t0-alpha in depth. Known-future covariates raise its skill by 6.3 percentage points across 30 tasks. The report also examines its calibration, its rollout strategy on long horizons, and its robustness to missing data. On the Victoria electricity-demand benchmark, t0-beta is among the most accurate models with a context of nearly a year. In an independent Macrocosm evaluation of hourly ERCOT prices over 29 months, both cut the MAE of the lagged-price baseline by 38%.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

We propose the Bayes-UCBVI algorithm for reinforcement learning in tabular, stage-dependent, episodic Markov decision process: a natural extension of the Bayes-UCB algorithm by Kaufmann et al. (2012) for multi-armed bandits. Our method uses the quantile of a Q-value function posterior as upper confidence bound on the optimal Q-value function. For Bayes-UCBVI, we prove a regret bound of order O(H^3SAT) where H is the length of one episode, S is the number of states, A the number of actions, T the number of episodes, that matches the lower-bound of Ω(H^3SAT) up to poly-log terms in H,S,A,T for a large enough T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that obtains an optimal dependence on the horizon H (and S) without the need for an involved Bernstein-like bonus or noise. Crucial to our analysis is a new fine-grained anti-concentration bound for a weighted Dirichlet sum that can be of independent interest. We then explain how Bayes-UCBVI can be easily extended beyond the tabular setting, exhibiting a strong link between our algorithm and Bayesian bootstrap (Rubin, 1981).

Portfolio risk assessment ordinarily relies on reliable estimates of cross-asset return covariances, which are difficult to obtain in short, high-dimensional panels. We show that firm-level distribution-valued characteristics can instead provide one-sided certificates of portfolio risk. Under maintained links from characteristics to systematic exposures and from exposures to returns, multi-firm Wasserstein-2 dispersion yields a sharp upper bound on systematic portfolio variance and a corresponding bound for standardized returns. A weighted pairwise relaxation produces an objective that is convex under a checkable condition and requires marginal volatility scales but no cross-asset return covariances. With zero firm-specific slack, the common-map scale changes the certified variance reduction but not the normalized allocation, which depends only on observed information geometry. In a 52-firm panel from 2018-2022, an allocation constructed from Qwen3-Embedding-8B news representations lies between the 0.69th and 1.33rd in-sample variance percentiles across four prespecified capped portfolio populations; equal risk weighting lies between the 21.1st and 28.6th percentiles. The lower in-sample variance ranking relative to equal risk also appears across the reported frozen language-model representations. The framework therefore distribution-valued firm information into a coherent risk bound and an implementable allocation rule constructed without cross-asset return covariances.

Accurately predicting watch time is crucial for optimizing recommendations and user experience in short video platforms. However, existing methods that estimate a single average watch time often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in user engagement patterns. In this paper, we propose Conditional Quantile Estimation (CQE) to model the entire conditional distribution of watch time. Using quantile regression, CQE characterizes the complex watch-time distribution for each user-video pair, providing a flexible and comprehensive approach to understanding user behavior. We further design multiple strategies to combine the quantile estimates, adapting to different recommendation scenarios and user preferences. Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate the superiority of CQE in watch-time prediction and user engagement modeling. Specifically, deploying CQE online on a large-scale platform with hundreds of millions of daily active users has led to substantial gains in key evaluation metrics, including active days, engagement time, and video views. These results highlight the practical impact of our proposed approach in enhancing the user experience and overall performance of the short video recommendation system. The code will be released https://github.com/justopit/CQE.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Weight oscillation is an undesirable side effect of quantization-aware training, in which quantized weights frequently jump between two quantized levels, resulting in training instability and a sub-optimal final model. We discover that the learnable scaling factor, a widely-used de facto setting in quantization aggravates weight oscillation. In this study, we investigate the connection between the learnable scaling factor and quantized weight oscillation and use ViT as a case driver to illustrate the findings and remedies. In addition, we also found that the interdependence between quantized weights in query and key of a self-attention layer makes ViT vulnerable to oscillation. We, therefore, propose three techniques accordingly: statistical weight quantization (rm StatsQ) to improve quantization robustness compared to the prevalent learnable-scale-based method; confidence-guided annealing (rm CGA) that freezes the weights with high confidence and calms the oscillating weights; and query-key reparameterization (rm QKR) to resolve the query-key intertwined oscillation and mitigate the resulting gradient misestimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these proposed techniques successfully abate weight oscillation and consistently achieve substantial accuracy improvement on ImageNet. Specifically, our 2-bit DeiT-T/DeiT-S algorithms outperform the previous state-of-the-art by 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/nbasyl/OFQ.

Priorities in multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) convey the relevance preference of one criterion over another, which is usually reflected by imposing the non-negativity and unit-sum constraints. The processing of such priorities is different than other unconstrained data, but this point is often neglected by researchers, which results in fallacious statistical analysis. This article studies three prevalent fallacies in group MCDM along with solutions based on compositional data analysis to avoid misusing statistical operations. First, we use a compositional approach to aggregate the priorities of a group of DMs and show that the outcome of the compositional analysis is identical to the normalized geometric mean, meaning that the arithmetic mean should be avoided. Furthermore, a new aggregation method is developed, which is a robust surrogate for the geometric mean. We also discuss the errors in computing measures of dispersion, including standard deviation and distance functions. Discussing the fallacies in computing the standard deviation, we provide a probabilistic criteria ranking by developing proper Bayesian tests, where we calculate the extent to which a criterion is more important than another. Finally, we explain the errors in computing the distance between priorities, and a clustering algorithm is specially tailored based on proper distance metrics.

Autoregressive video diffusion models (ARVDs) have emerged as a promising architecture for streaming video generation, paving the way for real-time interactive video generation and world modeling. Despite their potential, the substantial inference cost of ARVDs remains a major obstacle to practical deployment, making model quantization a natural direction for improving efficiency. However, quantization for ARVDs remains largely unexplored. Our empirical analysis shows that directly applying existing quantization schemes developed for standard diffusion transformers to ARVDs leads to suboptimal performance, revealing quantization behaviors that differ from those observed in bidirectional diffusion models. In this paper, we identify two critical challenges in quantizing ARVDs: (C1) Highly unbalanced frame-wise quantization sensitivity. Error accumulation during autoregressive generation can induce severely skewed quantization sensitivity across frames, following an exponential-like decay pattern. (C2) Prominent and heterogeneous outlier patterns in weights. Weight distributions exhibit pronounced outlier channels, whose patterns vary substantially across layer types and block depths. To address these issues, we propose Q-ARVD, a novel framework for accurate ARVD quantization. (S1) To tackle the highly unbalanced frame-wise sensitivity, Q-ARVD incorporates a final-quality aware frame-weighting mechanism into the quantization objective. (S2) To prevent heterogeneous outliers from degrading performance, Q-ARVD introduces an outlier-aware adaptive dual-scale quantization, which automatically detects the presence and quantity of outlier channels for an arbitrary layer, and isolates them to protect normal channels. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of Q-ARVD.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We study the problem of temporal-difference-based policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. In particular, we analyse the use of a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm, quantile temporal-difference learning (QTD), for this task. We reach the surprising conclusion that even if a practitioner has no interest in the return distribution beyond the mean, QTD (which learns predictions about the full distribution of returns) may offer performance superior to approaches such as classical TD learning, which predict only the mean return, even in the tabular setting.

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

Aligning large language models with pointwise absolute rewards has so far required online, on-policy algorithms such as PPO and GRPO. In contrast, simpler methods that can leverage offline or off-policy data, such as DPO and REBEL, are limited to learning from preference pairs or relative signals. To bridge this gap, we introduce Quantile Reward Policy Optimization (QRPO), which learns from pointwise absolute rewards while preserving the simplicity and offline applicability of DPO-like methods. QRPO uses quantile rewards to enable regression to the closed-form solution of the KL-regularized RL objective. This reward yields an analytically tractable partition function, removing the need for relative signals to cancel this term. Moreover, QRPO scales with increased compute to estimate quantile rewards, opening a new dimension for pre-computation scaling. Empirically, QRPO consistently achieves top performance on chat and coding evaluations--reward model scores, AlpacaEval 2, and LeetCode--compared to DPO, REBEL, and SimPO across diverse datasets and 8B-scale models. Finally, we find that training with robust rewards instead of converting them to preferences induces less length bias.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Autonomous driving involves multiple, often conflicting objectives such as safety, efficiency, and comfort. In reinforcement learning (RL), these objectives are typically combined through weighted summation, which collapses their relative priorities and often yields policies that violate safety-critical constraints. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the Preordered Multi-Objective MDP (Pr-MOMDP), which augments standard MOMDPs with a preorder over reward components. This structure enables reasoning about actions with respect to a hierarchy of objectives rather than a scalar signal. To make this structure actionable, we extend distributional RL with a novel pairwise comparison metric, Quantile Dominance (QD), that evaluates action return distributions without reducing them into a single statistic. Building on QD, we propose an algorithm for extracting optimal subsets, the subset of actions that remain non-dominated under each objective, which allows precedence information to shape both decision-making and training targets. Our framework is instantiated with Implicit Quantile Networks (IQN), establishing a concrete implementation while preserving compatibility with a broad class of distributional RL methods. Experiments in Carla show improved success rates, fewer collisions and off-road events, and deliver statistically more robust policies than IQN and ensemble-IQN baselines. By ensuring policies respect rewards preorder, our work advances safer, more reliable autonomous driving systems.

The robustness of legged locomotion is crucial for quadrupedal robots in challenging terrains. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown promising results in legged locomotion and various methods try to integrate privileged distillation, scene modeling, and external sensors to improve the generalization and robustness of locomotion policies. However, these methods are hard to handle uncertain scenarios such as abrupt terrain changes or unexpected external forces. In this paper, we consider a novel risk-sensitive perspective to enhance the robustness of legged locomotion. Specifically, we employ a distributional value function learned by quantile regression to model the aleatoric uncertainty of environments, and perform risk-averse policy learning by optimizing the worst-case scenarios via a risk distortion measure. Extensive experiments in both simulation environments and a real Aliengo robot demonstrate that our method is efficient in handling various external disturbances, and the resulting policy exhibits improved robustness in harsh and uncertain situations in legged locomotion. Videos are available at https://risk-averse-locomotion.github.io/.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Serving Large Language Models (LLMs) is costly. However, post-training weight quantization can address this problem by both compressing their sizes for limited memory and saving bandwidth for acceleration. As not all weight dimensions are equally important, those methods typically rely on a sensitivity metric, which indicates the element-wise influence of weights on loss function and is used to preprocess original weights for better quantization. In this work, we conduct an empirical study on the accuracy of the sensitivity metric, and find that existing gradient and Hessian based metrics are very inaccurate: they underestimate quantization's impact on the loss function by orders of magnitude, mainly due to the small convergence radius of local 2nd order approximation, \ie, gradient and Hessian term in Taylor's formula. To tackle this problem, we propose Post-quantization Integral (PQI), an accurate metric to estimate posterior sensitivity in a fine-grained manner. To leverage this accurate metric, we further propose ReQuant, a simple yet powerful framework that mainly consists of two Dense-and-Sparse detach components: self-adaptive outlier selection and step-wise significant weights detach. Results show that ReQuant boosts state-of-the-art post-training quantization methods, with a pronounced improvement of 2.66 perplexity gain on Llama 3.2 1B with QTIP.

Recent years have witnessed an increasing interest in deploying LLMs on resource-constrained devices, among which quantization has emerged as a promising lightweight technique that converts full-precision model weights and activations into lower-bit formats. Existing weight quantization approaches can be roughly divided into three categories: Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) that calibrates quantized parameters on a small dataset without retraining but suffers from severe performance degradation below 4-bit, Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) that searches low-bit parameters using surrogate gradients but demands substantial computational resources, and Quantization-Aware Distillation that integrates QAT with knowledge transfer from a full-precision teacher but manually selects features to distill and relies heavily on teacher-specific data. In this paper, we propose EdgeRazor, a lightweight framework for LLMs with mixed-precision and extremely low-bit weight quantization. The EdgeRazor framework contains three modules: Mixed-Precision Quantization-Aware Distillation for the fine-grained control of precision, Adaptive Feature Distillation that derives an n-bit student from its 16-bit teacher, and Entropy-Aware KL Divergence on both human-annotated and distilled datasets, whose forward-reverse balance is determined solely by the teacher's output distribution. Empirical investigations of EdgeRazor are conducted on base, instruction-tuned, and multimodal LLMs. Notably, EdgeRazor with 1.88-bit surpasses all contenders with the 3-bit precision, especially outperforms the leading 2-bit PTQ methods by 11.3 points, within a 4-10times lower training budget than the leading QAT approach. EdgeRazor delivers higher compression ratios at all bit width; the 1.58-bit Qwen3-0.6B reduces storage from 1.41 GB to 0.28 GB while accelerating decoding by 15.1times relative to the 16-bit baseline.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically pretrained in high precision but increasingly deployed with low-precision post-training quantization (PTQ). Recent studies have shown that using weight averaging during pretraining can improve PTQ performance compared with learning-rate decay, suggesting that it might provide a simple way to improve the pretraining-to-quantization transition. But the mechanism behind weight averaging remains insufficiently explained. This leads to inconsistent and fragile performance gains, thereby preventing practitioners from applying such a technique confidently. As a response, we formulate weight averaging as a trade-off between retaining training progress and improving robustness under perturbation. We further derive a continuous family of averaging kernels that unifies conventional strategies and achieves the Pareto frontier between the two competing goals. Critically, a theoretical framework for performing weight averaging under PTQ is developed. It can be shown that coarser quantization is more susceptible to perturbations, whereas finer quantization could be less affected. Thus, our results could provide unified theoretical guidance for performing weight averaging under different PTQ conditions. Experiments validate both the predicted behavior and the proposed averaging strategy. Code is available at https://github.com/MOFA-LAB/weight-averaging-for-ptq.

Deep neural network (DNN) deployment has been confined to larger hardware devices due to their expensive computational requirements. This challenge has recently reached another scale with the emergence of large language models (LLMs). In order to reduce both their memory footprint and latency, a promising technique is quantization. It consists in converting floating point representations to low bit-width fixed point representations, usually by assuming a uniform mapping onto a regular grid. This process, referred to in the literature as uniform quantization, may however be ill-suited as most DNN weights and activations follow a bell-shaped distribution. This is even worse on LLMs whose weight distributions are known to exhibit large, high impact, outlier values. In this work, we propose an improvement over the most commonly adopted way to tackle this limitation in deep learning models quantization, namely, non-uniform quantization. NUPES leverages automorphisms to preserve the scalar multiplications. Such transformations are derived from power functions. However, the optimization of the exponent parameter and weight values remains a challenging and novel problem which could not be solved with previous post training optimization techniques which only learn to round up or down weight values in order to preserve the predictive function. We circumvent this limitation with a new paradigm: learning new quantized weights over the entire quantized space. Similarly, we enable the optimization of the power exponent, i.e. the optimization of the quantization operator itself during training by alleviating all the numerical instabilities. The resulting predictive function is compatible with integer-only low-bit inference. We show the ability of the method to achieve state-of-the-art compression rates in both, data-free and data-driven configurations.

Quantizing the weights of a neural network has two steps: (1) Finding a good low bit-complexity representation for weights (which we call the quantization grid) and (2) Rounding the original weights to values in the quantization grid. In this paper, we study the problem of rounding optimally given any quantization grid. The simplest and most commonly used way to round is Round-to-Nearest (RTN). By rounding in a data-dependent way instead, one can improve the quality of the quantized model significantly. We study the rounding problem from the lens of discrepancy theory, which studies how well we can round a continuous solution to a discrete solution without affecting solution quality too much. We prove that given m=poly(1/ε) samples from the data distribution, we can round all but O(m) model weights such that the expected approximation error of the quantized model on the true data distribution is le ε as long as the space of gradients of the original model is approximately low rank (which we empirically validate). Our proof, which is algorithmic, inspired a simple and practical rounding algorithm called DiscQuant. In our experiments, we demonstrate that DiscQuant significantly improves over the prior state-of-the-art rounding method called GPTQ and the baseline RTN over a range of benchmarks on Phi3mini-3.8B and Llama3.1-8B. For example, rounding Phi3mini-3.8B to a fixed quantization grid with 3.25 bits per parameter using DiscQuant gets 64\% accuracy on the GSM8k dataset, whereas GPTQ achieves 54\% and RTN achieves 31\% (the original model achieves 84\%). We make our code available at https://github.com/jerry-chee/DiscQuant.

Diffusion-based image generation models have achieved great success in recent years by showing the capability of synthesizing high-quality content. However, these models contain a huge number of parameters, resulting in a significantly large model size. Saving and transferring them is a major bottleneck for various applications, especially those running on resource-constrained devices. In this work, we develop a novel weight quantization method that quantizes the UNet from Stable Diffusion v1.5 to 1.99 bits, achieving a model with 7.9X smaller size while exhibiting even better generation quality than the original one. Our approach includes several novel techniques, such as assigning optimal bits to each layer, initializing the quantized model for better performance, and improving the training strategy to dramatically reduce quantization error. Furthermore, we extensively evaluate our quantized model across various benchmark datasets and through human evaluation to demonstrate its superior generation quality.

We study weight-only post-training quantization (PTQ), which quantizes the weights of a large language model (LLM) without retraining, using little or no calibration data. Weight-only PTQ is crucial for reducing the memory footprint and latency of LLM inference, especially in memory-bound, small-batch inference scenarios, such as personalized inference on edge devices. Despite its importance, irregular weight distributions with heavy-tailed outliers in LLMs complicate quantization, recently motivating rotation-based methods that transform weights into near-Gaussian distributions, which are more regular with fewer outliers, thereby reducing quantization error. In this work, we first derive the information-theoretically optimal bit allocation for Gaussianized weights under given bit budgets, revealing that fine-grained fractional-bit quantizers approaching the Gaussian distortion-rate bound are essential to achieve near-optimal quantization performance. To bridge this theoretical insight and practical implementation, we introduce Q-Palette, a versatile collection of fractional-bit quantizers that range from trellis-coded quantizers offering near-optimal distortion to simpler vector and scalar quantizers optimized for faster inference, all efficiently implemented with optimized CUDA kernels across various bitwidths. Furthermore, leveraging Q-Palette as a foundational component, we propose a novel mixed-scheme quantization framework, jointly optimizing quantizer choices and layer fusion decisions given resource constraints. The code is available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Q-Palette.

Large language models (LLMs) have numerous applications across various domains, but their high computational and memory demands pose significant deployment challenges. Weight quantization is an effective technique for reducing the decoding latency and memory requirements of LLMs. Existing approaches primarily aim to maintain the quality of quantized models by preserving outliers in input features, but they still suffer significant quality loss at lower bit widths. Our approach builds on Optimal Brain Quantization (OBQ), an iterative weight-update-based quantization framework. We identify a key limitation of OBQ, specifically that its uniform quantization grid is suboptimal for maintaining model quality, as it introduces large errors to the task loss. To address this, we propose LeanQuant, which learns a loss-error-aware quantization grid by leveraging the inverse diagonal Hessian. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that LeanQuant is both efficient and accurate; it can quantize a 70-billion-parameter model in 6 hours using a single 32GB GPU and performs favorably compared to competitive baselines in the 4-bit, 3-bit, and 2-bit regions.

Time series foundation models are becoming increasingly popular for general-purpose forecasting. However, most leading models predict marginal quantiles, leaving the dependence structure of future trajectories unspecified. This distinction matters for trajectory-dependent quantities such as cumulative demand, peak load, and event timing, yet point and marginal scores do not reveal it. To model this dependence, we introduce PathFM, a trajectory-based forecasting model that uses flow matching to generate complete future paths. We further distill the model to one or two steps and share history attention cache across draws. Together, these enable PathFM to generate multiple paths for a single series in roughly the time needed for one query to a quantile model. The distilled sampler also makes it practical to optimize a calibration loss directly. PathFM achieves competitive marginal accuracy on the established forecasting benchmarks fev-bench and TIME. To complement these evaluations, we introduce Forecast Path Score Bench (fps-bench), which augments fev-bench tasks with energy and variogram scores and downstream metrics. PathFM achieves a higher aggregate path score on fps-bench than all evaluated external baselines. Experiments on chaotic systems further show that our flow model sustains long-run variability, while strong baselines rapidly collapse. PathFM makes generative time series forecasting both competitive and practical, enabling diverse downstream applications.

The overestimation bias is one of the major impediments to accurate off-policy learning. This paper investigates a novel way to alleviate the overestimation bias in a continuous control setting. Our method---Truncated Quantile Critics, TQC,---blends three ideas: distributional representation of a critic, truncation of critics prediction, and ensembling of multiple critics. Distributional representation and truncation allow for arbitrary granular overestimation control, while ensembling provides additional score improvements. TQC outperforms the current state of the art on all environments from the continuous control benchmark suite, demonstrating 25% improvement on the most challenging Humanoid environment.

Weight quantization has become a standard tool for efficient LLM deployment, especially for local inference, where models are now routinely served at 2-3 bits per parameter. The state of the art is currently split into two sets of methods: simple scalar quantization techniques, such as GPTQ or AWQ, which are widely deployed but plateau in accuracy at 3-4 bits per parameter (bpp), and "second-generation" vector- or trellis-quantized methods, such as QTIP, GPTVQ and AQLM, which push the accuracy frontier at low bit-widths but are notoriously hard to implement and to scale, and have gained relatively less traction. In this paper, we ask whether this gap is fundamental, or whether a carefully optimized scalar quantizer can recover most of it. We answer in the affirmative, by introducing GSQ (Gumbel-Softmax Quantization), a post-training scalar quantization method which jointly learns the per-coordinate grid assignments and the per-group scales using a Gumbel-Softmax relaxation of the discrete grid. GSQ matches the cardinality of the relaxation to the small number of levels available in the target bit-width regime (e.g., 3-8 levels for ternary and 3 bpp, respectively), making the relaxation tight and the optimization tractable. Practically, on the standard Llama-3.1-8B/70B-Instruct models, GSQ closes most of the gap between scalar quantization and the QTIP frontier at 2 and 3 bits, while using a symmetric scalar grid with group-wise quantization, and thus fully compatible with existing scalar inference kernels. We further show that GSQ scales to trillion-scale Mixture-of-Experts models such as Kimi-K2.5, where vector-quantized methods are difficult to apply.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Weight-only quantization is important for compressing Large Language Models (LLMs). Inspired by the spirit of classical magnitude pruning, we study whether the magnitude of weight updates during reasoning-incentivized fine-tuning can provide valuable signals for quantizing Large Reasoning Models (LRMs). We hypothesize that the smallest and largest weight updates during fine-tuning are more important than those of intermediate magnitude, a phenomenon we term "protecting both ends". Upon hypothesis validation, we introduce QuantLRM, which stands for weight quantization of LRMs via fine-tuning signals. We fit simple restricted quadratic functions on weight updates to protect both ends. By multiplying the average quadratic values with the count of zero weight updates of channels, we compute channel importance that is more effective than using activation or second-order information. We run QuantLRM to quantize various fine-tuned models (including supervised, direct preference optimization, and reinforcement learning fine-tuning) over four reasoning benchmarks (AIME-120, FOLIO, temporal sequences, and GPQA-Diamond) and empirically find that QuantLRM delivers a consistent improvement for LRMs quantization, with an average improvement of 6.55% on a reinforcement learning fine-tuned model. Also supporting non-fine-tuned LRMs, QuantLRM gathers effective signals via pseudo-fine-tuning, which greatly enhances its applicability.

Quantitative research is an iterative loop: a researcher proposes a market hypothesis, implements it as an executable signal, tests it on historical data, and decides what to keep. Existing benchmarks score formulas, code, or individual trading decisions, leaving open whether large language models (LLMs) can complete this loop and produce strategies that work beyond the research period. We introduce Quant-Arena, a benchmark and public leaderboard for end-to-end quantitative research on real A-share market data. A model constructs features and stock-scoring code, receives feedback only on 2022--2023, and freezes one strategy for assessment on the sealed year 2024. A cash-account evaluator applies trading constraints and costs, including market impact estimated from a simulated order book. Scores are dominated by realized excess return and complemented by signal quality and the diversity of features used by the strategy. We evaluate nine frontier models, among which GPT-6 Astra scores highest; yet no model beats the equal-weight market in 2024. Quant-Arena is open to submissions from any model or agent harness.

Large language models (LLMs) deliver strong performance, but their high compute and memory costs make deployment difficult in resource-constrained scenarios. Weight-only post-training quantization (PTQ) is appealing, as it reduces memory usage and enables practical speedup without low-bit operators or specialized hardware. However, accuracy often degrades significantly in weight-only PTQ at sub-4-bit precision, and our analysis identifies two main causes: (1) down-projection matrices are a well-known quantization bottleneck, but maintaining their fidelity often requires extra bit-width; (2) weight quantization induces activation deviations, but effective correction strategies remain underexplored. To address these issues, we propose D^2Quant, a novel weight-only PTQ framework that improves quantization from both the weight and activation perspectives. On the weight side, we design a Dual-Scale Quantizer (DSQ) tailored to down-projection matrices, with an absorbable scaling factor that significantly improves accuracy without increasing the bit budget. On the activation side, we propose Deviation-Aware Correction (DAC), which incorporates a mean-shift correction within LayerNorm to mitigate quantization-induced activation distribution shifts. Extensive experiments across multiple LLM families and evaluation metrics show that D^2Quant delivers superior performance for weight-only PTQ at sub-4-bit precision. The code and models will be available at https://github.com/XIANGLONGYAN/D2Quant.

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varying length across the input space. In this paper we propose a new method that is fully adaptive to heteroscedasticity. It combines conformal prediction with classical quantile regression, inheriting the advantages of both. We establish a theoretical guarantee of valid coverage, supplemented by extensive experiments on popular regression datasets. We compare the efficiency of conformalized quantile regression to other conformal methods, showing that our method tends to produce shorter intervals.

One approach to reducing the massive costs of large language models (LLMs) is the use of quantized or sparse representations for training or deployment. While post-training compression methods are very popular, the question of obtaining even more accurate compressed models by directly training over such representations, i.e., Quantization-Aware Training (QAT), is still open: for example, a recent study (arXiv:2411.04330v2) put the "optimal" bit-width at which models can be trained using QAT, while staying accuracy-competitive with standard FP16/BF16 precision, at 8-bits weights and activations. We advance this state-of-the-art via a new method called QuEST, which is Pareto-competitive with FP16, i.e., it provides better accuracy at lower model size, while training models with weights and activations in 4-bits or less. Moreover, QuEST allows stable training with 1-bit weights and activations. QuEST achieves this by improving two key aspects of QAT methods: (1) accurate and fast quantization of the (continuous) distributions of weights and activations via Hadamard normalization and MSE-optimal fitting; (2) a new trust gradient estimator based on the idea of explicitly minimizing the error between the noisy gradient computed over quantized states and the "true" (but unknown) full-precision gradient. Experiments on Llama-type architectures show that QuEST induces stable scaling laws across the entire range of hardware-supported precisions, and can be extended to sparse representations. We provide GPU kernel support showing that models produced by QuEST can be executed efficiently. Our code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/QuEST.

When safety is formulated as a limit of cumulative cost, safe reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn policies that maximize return subject to the cost constraint in data collection and deployment. Off-policy safe RL methods, although offering high sample efficiency, suffer from constraint violations due to cost-agnostic exploration and estimation bias in cumulative cost. To address this issue, we propose Constrained Optimistic eXploration Q-learning (COX-Q), an off-policy safe RL algorithm that integrates cost-bounded online exploration and conservative offline distributional value learning. First, we introduce a novel cost-constrained optimistic exploration strategy that resolves gradient conflicts between reward and cost in the action space and adaptively adjusts the trust region to control the training cost. Second, we adopt truncated quantile critics to stabilize the cost value learning. Quantile critics also quantify epistemic uncertainty to guide exploration. Experiments on safe velocity, safe navigation, and autonomous driving tasks demonstrate that COX-Q achieves high sample efficiency, competitive test safety performance, and controlled data collection cost. The results highlight COX-Q as a promising RL method for safety-critical applications.

Weight-only post-training quantization (PTQ) can alleviate the computational burden of serving large language models (LLMs) at scale. However, existing PTQ methods often fail to generalize across models and suffer severe accuracy loss below 2 bits. Many leverage unstructured sparsity to mitigate this loss, but at the cost of regularity and GPU-friendly execution. We present QTEA, a sub-2-bit PTQ framework that quantizes weights into ternary values and uses salient weights as residual error compensators. To maintain hardware efficiency, residuals are assigned to selected columns with semi-structured \(1{:}4\) sparsity within the salient columns. We further add column-wise rescale refinement to GPTQ-style column-by-column quantization, alternately updating per-column scales and ternary assignments to reduce reconstruction error. We also identify order-dependent error propagation in GPTQ and introduce error decay to attenuate late-stage error accumulation. On Qwen3-14B, QTEA compresses all weights to an effective 1.7 bits per weight while improving average accuracy over the strongest ternary PTQ baseline by 16.7\%. It also achieves 1.40\(\times\) and 2.61\(\times\) lower perplexity on WikiText and C4 respectively. This trend holds on Llama3-8B, where QTEA obtains a 6.6\% accuracy gain and 1.34\(\times\)/1.95\(\times\) lower perplexity on the same datasets. Finally, we develop a lookup-table based kernel that achieves 7.2\(\times\) faster per-token generation over an FP16 baseline. Code is available at https://github.com/Intelligent-Microsystems-Lab/QTEA.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

Diffusion Models (DM) have democratized AI image generation through an iterative denoising process. Quantization is a major technique to alleviate the inference cost and reduce the size of DM denoiser networks. However, as denoisers evolve from variants of convolutional U-Nets toward newer Transformer architectures, it is of growing importance to understand the quantization sensitivity of different weight layers, operations and architecture types to performance. In this work, we address this challenge with Qua^2SeDiMo, a mixed-precision Post-Training Quantization framework that generates explainable insights on the cost-effectiveness of various model weight quantization methods for different denoiser operation types and block structures. We leverage these insights to make high-quality mixed-precision quantization decisions for a myriad of diffusion models ranging from foundational U-Nets to state-of-the-art Transformers. As a result, Qua^2SeDiMo can construct 3.4-bit, 3.9-bit, 3.65-bit and 3.7-bit weight quantization on PixArt-{alpha}, PixArt-{Sigma}, Hunyuan-DiT and SDXL, respectively. We further pair our weight-quantization configurations with 6-bit activation quantization and outperform existing approaches in terms of quantitative metrics and generative image quality.

Quantization for deep neural networks (DNNs) is the process of mapping the parameter values of DNNs from original data types to other data types of lower precision to reduce model sizes and make inference faster. Quantization often maps different original values to a single quantized value because the range of the original values is larger than the range of the quantized values. This leads to the degradation of the accuracy of the quantized DNNs. Outliers are a main cause of the degradation of quantization resolution because they enlarge the range of original values. To solve the problem, the percentile method is often used to clip outliers. However, clipping the outliers has another problem of removing the important and strong signals in the DNNs. This paper proposes SplitQuant to keep the outliers and improve the quantization resolution at the same time. SplitQuant narrows down the range of the original values and mitigates the effect of outliers by splitting each quantizable layer into three mathematically equivalent layers and applies different scaling factors. Especially, weights and biases are clustered into lower, middle and upper clusters for optimized split. By preprocessing DNNs with SplitQuant, quantization algorithms can achieve better results. SplitQuant was applied on two BERT-Tiny models and improved the accuracy of INT2 quantization by 3.3%p and 2.1%p, achieving accuracies comparable to those of the original FP32 models.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Diffusion models are emerging models that generate images by iteratively denoising random Gaussian noise using deep neural networks. These models typically exhibit high computational and memory demands, necessitating effective post-training quantization for high-performance inference. Recent works propose low-bitwidth (e.g., 8-bit or 4-bit) quantization for diffusion models, however 4-bit integer quantization typically results in low-quality images. We observe that on several widely used hardware platforms, there is little or no difference in compute capability between floating-point and integer arithmetic operations of the same bitwidth (e.g., 8-bit or 4-bit). Therefore, we propose an effective floating-point quantization method for diffusion models that provides better image quality compared to integer quantization methods. We employ a floating-point quantization method that was effective for other processing tasks, specifically computer vision and natural language tasks, and tailor it for diffusion models by integrating weight rounding learning during the mapping of the full-precision values to the quantized values in the quantization process. We comprehensively study integer and floating-point quantization methods in state-of-the-art diffusion models. Our floating-point quantization method not only generates higher-quality images than that of integer quantization methods, but also shows no noticeable degradation compared to full-precision models (32-bit floating-point), when both weights and activations are quantized to 8-bit floating-point values, while has minimal degradation with 4-bit weights and 8-bit activations.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

We show that robustness to post-training quantization (PTQ) is a transferable direction in weight space. We call this direction the quantization vector: extracted from a donor task by simple weight-space arithmetic, it can be used to patch a receiver model and improve post-PTQ Top-1 accuracy by up to 60 points in a 3-bit setting, without receiver-side quantization-aware training (QAT). Because the method requires no receiver training data, it provides a zero-shot, low-cost alternative to QAT for extremely low-bit deployment. Across four ViT scales and 22 image classification tasks, donor quantization vectors often yield substantial gains even when donor and receiver tasks differ markedly. We further prove rigorously that quantization vectors are well-defined and do not suffer from reparameterization symmetries, and provide a local geometric account of their effect. Together, these results suggest that quantization robustness can be partially isolated, reused, and transferred through simple weight-space algebra.

This work presents a comprehensive evaluation of how quantization affects model bias, with particular attention to its impact on individual demographic subgroups. We focus on weight and activation quantization strategies and examine their effects across a broad range of bias types, including stereotypes, toxicity, sentiment, and fairness. We employ both probabilistic and generated text-based metrics across nine benchmarks and evaluate models varying in architecture family and reasoning ability. Our findings show that quantization has a nuanced impact on bias: while it can reduce model toxicity and does not significantly impact sentiment, it tends to slightly increase stereotypes and unfairness in generative tasks, especially under aggressive compression. These trends are generally consistent across demographic categories and model types, although their magnitude depends on the specific setting. Overall, our results highlight the importance of carefully balancing efficiency and ethical considerations when applying quantization in practice.

Survival analysis is the problem of estimating probability distributions for future event times, which can be seen as a problem in uncertainty quantification. Although there are fundamental theories on strictly proper scoring rules for uncertainty quantification, little is known about those for survival analysis. In this paper, we investigate extensions of four major strictly proper scoring rules for survival analysis and we prove that these extensions are proper under certain conditions, which arise from the discretization of the estimation of probability distributions. We also compare the estimation performances of these extended scoring rules by using real datasets, and the extensions of the logarithmic score and the Brier score performed the best.

We introduce Qronos -- a new state-of-the-art post-training quantization algorithm that sequentially rounds and updates neural network weights. Qronos not only explicitly corrects errors due to both weight and activation quantization, but also errors resulting from quantizing previous layers. Our iterative algorithm is based on an interpretable and disciplined optimization framework that subsumes and surpasses existing data-driven approaches. At each step, Qronos alternates between error correction and diffusion via optimal update rules. Importantly, we prove that Qronos admits an efficient implementation that uses the Cholesky decomposition for solving least-squares problems. We also demonstrate that Qronos is compatible with existing transformation techniques such as Hadamard-based incoherence processing and weight-activation scaling equalization, among others. We evaluate Qronos using recent autoregressive language generation models in the Llama3 family; Qronos consistently outperforms previous state-of-the-art adaptive rounding methods when quantizing the weights, activations, and/or KV caches.

Histograms provide a powerful means of summarizing large data sets by representing their distribution in a compact, binned form. The HistogramTools R package enhances R built-in histogram functionality, offering advanced methods for manipulating and analyzing histograms, especially in large-scale data environments. Key features include the ability to serialize histograms using Protocol Buffers for distributed computing tasks, tools for merging and modifying histograms, and techniques for measuring and visualizing information loss in histogram representations. The package is particularly suited for environments utilizing MapReduce, where efficient storage and data sharing are critical. This paper presents various methods of histogram bin manipulation, distance measures, quantile approximation, and error estimation in cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) derived from histograms. Visualization techniques and efficient storage representations are also discussed alongside applications for large data processing and distributed computing tasks.

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and derived quantities such as quantiles, which coherently quantifies the epistemic uncertainty on any target estimand of interest. As the predictive recursions are based on an underlying nonparametric model (a Dirichlet process mixture model), our method naturally inherits robustness with respect to restrictive parametric assumptions. In addition, implementation of our method is typically very fast. This approach can be applied to marginal or conditional counterfactual distributions and is easily extended to an instrumental variables setup. Using the concept of almost conditionally identically distributed random variables, we prove convergence of the martingale posterior inference on the counterfactual outcome distributions for the causal models considered in the paper. We illustrate our approach on both simulated and real data. Using the latter, we investigate the effect of zinc lozenges on common cold duration, the impact of vitamin A supplementation on children's survival rates with one-sided non-compliance (analysed in Imbens and Rubin, 1997a) and the effect of job training (LaLonde, 1986).

In the realm of recommender systems (RS), Top-K ranking metrics such as NDCG@K are the gold standard for evaluating recommendation performance. However, during the training of recommendation models, optimizing NDCG@K poses significant challenges due to its inherent discontinuous nature and the intricate Top-K truncation. Recent efforts to optimize NDCG@K have either overlooked the Top-K truncation or suffered from high computational costs and training instability. To overcome these limitations, we propose SoftmaxLoss@K (SL@K), a novel recommendation loss tailored for NDCG@K optimization. Specifically, we integrate the quantile technique to handle Top-K truncation and derive a smooth upper bound for optimizing NDCG@K to address discontinuity. The resulting SL@K loss has several desirable properties, including theoretical guarantees, ease of implementation, computational efficiency, gradient stability, and noise robustness. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets and three recommendation backbones demonstrate that SL@K outperforms existing losses with a notable average improvement of 6.03%. The code is available at https://github.com/Tiny-Snow/IR-Benchmark.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

This paper introduces PG-Rainbow, a novel algorithm that incorporates a distributional reinforcement learning framework with a policy gradient algorithm. Existing policy gradient methods are sample inefficient and rely on the mean of returns when calculating the state-action value function, neglecting the distributional nature of returns in reinforcement learning tasks. To address this issue, we use an Implicit Quantile Network that provides the quantile information of the distribution of rewards to the critic network of the Proximal Policy Optimization algorithm. We show empirical results that through the integration of reward distribution information into the policy network, the policy agent acquires enhanced capabilities to comprehensively evaluate the consequences of potential actions in a given state, facilitating more sophisticated and informed decision-making processes. We evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm in the Atari-2600 game suite, simulated via the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE).

Improving the efficiency of inference in Large Language Models (LLMs) is a critical area of research. Post-training Quantization (PTQ) is a popular technique, but it often faces challenges at low-bit levels, particularly in downstream tasks. Quantization-aware Training (QAT) can alleviate this problem, but it requires significantly more computational resources. To tackle this, we introduced Weight-Decomposed Low-Rank Quantization-Aware Training (DL-QAT), which merges the advantages of QAT while training only less than 1% of the total parameters. Specifically, we introduce a group-specific quantization magnitude to adjust the overall scale of each quantization group. Within each quantization group, we use LoRA matrices to update the weight size and direction in the quantization space. We validated the effectiveness of our method on the LLaMA and LLaMA2 model families. The results show significant improvements over our baseline method across different quantization granularities. For instance, for LLaMA-7B, our approach outperforms the previous state-of-the-art method by 4.2% in MMLU on 3-bit LLaMA-7B model. Additionally, our quantization results on pre-trained models also surpass previous QAT methods, demonstrating the superior performance and efficiency of our approach.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely used way of comparing probability distributions by their spread. Furthermore, we lay foundation for the theory of comparing statistical experiments within Markov categories by stating and proving the classical Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem. Our version not only offers new insight into the proof, but its abstract nature also makes the result more general, automatically specializing to the standard Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem in measure-theoretic probability as well as a Bayesian version that involves prior-dependent garbling. Along the way, we define and characterize representable Markov categories, within which one can talk about Markov kernels to or from spaces of distributions. We do so by exploring the relation between Markov categories and Kleisli categories of probability monads.

Test-time scaling evaluates reasoning LLMs by sampling multiple outputs per prompt, but ranking models in this regime remains underexplored. We formalize dense benchmark ranking under test-time scaling and introduce Scorio, a library that implements statistical ranking methods such as paired-comparison models, item response theory (IRT) models, voting rules, and graph- and spectral-based methods. Across 20 reasoning models on four Olympiad-style math benchmarks (AIME'24, AIME'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25; up to N=80 trials), most full-trial rankings agree closely with the Bayesian gold standard Bayes_{U}@80 (mean Kendall's τ_b = 0.93--0.95), and 19--34 methods recover exactly the same ordering. In the single-trial regime, the best methods reach τ_b approx 0.86. Using greedy decoding as an empirical prior (Bayes_{R_0}@N) reduces variance at N=1 by 16--52%, but can bias rankings when greedy and stochastic sampling disagree. These results identify reliable ranking methods for both high- and low-budget test-time scaling. We release Scorio as an open-source library at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio.

Mamba is an efficient sequence model that rivals Transformers and demonstrates significant potential as a foundational architecture for various tasks. Quantization is commonly used in neural networks to reduce model size and computational latency. However, applying quantization to Mamba remains underexplored, and existing quantization methods, which have been effective for CNN and Transformer models, appear inadequate for Mamba models (e.g., Quarot suffers a 21% accuracy drop on Vim-T^dagger even under W8A8). We have pioneered the exploration of this issue and identified several key challenges. First, significant outliers are present in gate projections, output projections, and matrix multiplications. Second, Mamba's unique parallel scan further amplifies these outliers, leading to uneven and heavy-tailed data distributions. Third, even with the application of the Hadamard transform, the variance across channels in weights and activations still remains inconsistent. To these ends, we propose MambaQuant, a post-training quantization (PTQ) framework consisting of: 1) Karhunen-Loeve Transformation (KLT) enhanced rotation, rendering the rotation matrix adaptable to diverse channel distributions. 2) Smooth-Fused rotation, which equalizes channel variances and can merge additional parameters into model weights. Experiments show that MambaQuant can quantize both weights and activations into 8-bit with less than 1% accuracy loss for Mamba-based vision and language tasks. To the best of our knowledge, MambaQuant is the first comprehensive PTQ design for the Mamba family, paving the way for further advancements in its application.

We study the problem of multi-task learning under user-level differential privacy, in which n users contribute data to m tasks, each involving a subset of users. One important aspect of the problem, that can significantly impact quality, is the distribution skew among tasks. Certain tasks may have much fewer data samples than others, making them more susceptible to the noise added for privacy. It is natural to ask whether algorithms can adapt to this skew to improve the overall utility. We give a systematic analysis of the problem, by studying how to optimally allocate a user's privacy budget among tasks. We propose a generic algorithm, based on an adaptive reweighting of the empirical loss, and show that when there is task distribution skew, this gives a quantifiable improvement of excess empirical risk. Experimental studies on recommendation problems that exhibit a long tail of small tasks, demonstrate that our methods significantly improve utility, achieving the state of the art on two standard benchmarks.

Open-ended search combined with foundation models has produced advances such as faster algorithms, new results on open mathematical problems, and self-improving agents. We extend this paradigm to recommendation for decision-making, focusing on decisions where the set of possible choices is fixed but the reasons for choosing them are not. In high-stakes decisions, e.g., which company to acquire or which customer to target, comparing diverse, well-reasoned options can be more useful than a single ranked list. We formalize open-ended recommendation as building a diverse, high-quality set of recommendations, each an item together with a hypothesis, a natural-language reason why the item fits the needs of a decision maker. We propose QD-Rec, a quality--diversity method that selects items with a contextual bandit and generates hypotheses with a foundation model from earlier ones kept in an archive as stepping stones. A new recommendation enters the archive if it is novel or better than its nearest neighbor. Across M&A, customer targeting, and paper and book recommendation, QD-Rec gives the highest mean quality and builds the largest archive in most settings.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly computationally complex, developing efficient deployment strategies, such as quantization, becomes crucial. State-of-the-art Post-training Quantization (PTQ) techniques often rely on calibration processes to maintain the accuracy of these models. However, while these calibration techniques can enhance performance in certain domains, they may not be as effective in others. This paper aims to draw attention to robust statistical approaches that can mitigate such issues. We propose a weight-adaptive PTQ method that can be considered a precursor to calibration-based PTQ methods, guiding the quantization process to preserve the distribution of weights by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the quantized weights and the originally trained weights. This minimization ensures that the quantized model retains the Shannon information content of the original model to a great extent, guaranteeing robust and efficient deployment across many tasks. As such, our proposed approach can perform on par with most common calibration-based PTQ methods, establishing a new pre-calibration step for further adjusting the quantized weights with calibration. We show that our pre-calibration results achieve the same accuracy as some existing calibration-based PTQ methods on various LLMs.

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between these two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately with access to a large set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more generally, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

Policies with similar mean returns can differ sharply in rare failures, yet estimating lower-tail conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) accurately can require many costly rollouts. When different conditional components of a stochastic workflow can be queried separately, we ask how to allocate a fixed evaluation budget to estimate a fixed policy's CVaR most accurately. We derive a tail influence for each queryable conditional law that aggregates how its uncertainty affects CVaR across every Bellman reuse. Its variance yields the fixed-design efficiency bound and the oracle Neyman allocation. Tail-Influence Sampling (TIS) estimates these influence scales from a pilot model and reallocates fresh queries toward kernels that matter most for the tail; a visitation-anchored variant protects against pilot underallocation. Under fixed dimension and a positive quantile margin, TIS attains oracle asymptotic variance and first-order MSE including pilot cost, while the anchored variant is within a factor two of the oracle. We also characterize an exact-grid regime in which tail- and mean-optimal allocations coincide. On CliffWalking, TIS reduces MSE by 41% versus learned occupancy and 76% versus complete rollouts at the same charged transition budget. In frozen language-model review workflows, anchored TIS beats an equally regularized mean-influence blend in 23 of 24 MMLU-Pro settings and reaches 2.4-3.4times lower MSE than rollouts on six-call FinQA reviews.

Diffusion models have been proven highly effective at generating high-quality images. However, as these models grow larger, they require significantly more memory and suffer from higher latency, posing substantial challenges for deployment. In this work, we aim to accelerate diffusion models by quantizing their weights and activations to 4 bits. At such an aggressive level, both weights and activations are highly sensitive, where conventional post-training quantization methods for large language models like smoothing become insufficient. To overcome this limitation, we propose SVDQuant, a new 4-bit quantization paradigm. Different from smoothing which redistributes outliers between weights and activations, our approach absorbs these outliers using a low-rank branch. We first consolidate the outliers by shifting them from activations to weights, then employ a high-precision low-rank branch to take in the weight outliers with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). This process eases the quantization on both sides. However, na\"{\i}vely running the low-rank branch independently incurs significant overhead due to extra data movement of activations, negating the quantization speedup. To address this, we co-design an inference engine Nunchaku that fuses the kernels of the low-rank branch into those of the low-bit branch to cut off redundant memory access. It can also seamlessly support off-the-shelf low-rank adapters (LoRAs) without the need for re-quantization. Extensive experiments on SDXL, PixArt-Sigma, and FLUX.1 validate the effectiveness of SVDQuant in preserving image quality. We reduce the memory usage for the 12B FLUX.1 models by 3.5times, achieving 3.0times speedup over the 4-bit weight-only quantized baseline on the 16GB laptop 4090 GPU, paving the way for more interactive applications on PCs. Our quantization library and inference engine are open-sourced.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Estimating truncated density models is difficult, as these models have intractable normalising constants and hard to satisfy boundary conditions. Score matching can be adapted to solve the truncated density estimation problem, but requires a continuous weighting function which takes zero at the boundary and is positive elsewhere. Evaluation of such a weighting function (and its gradient) often requires a closed-form expression of the truncation boundary and finding a solution to a complicated optimisation problem. In this paper, we propose approximate Stein classes, which in turn leads to a relaxed Stein identity for truncated density estimation. We develop a novel discrepancy measure, truncated kernelised Stein discrepancy (TKSD), which does not require fixing a weighting function in advance, and can be evaluated using only samples on the boundary. We estimate a truncated density model by minimising the Lagrangian dual of TKSD. Finally, experiments show the accuracy of our method to be an improvement over previous works even without the explicit functional form of the boundary.

Epidemic forecasting has become an integral part of real-time infectious disease outbreak response. While collaborative ensembles composed of statistical and machine learning models have become the norm for real-time forecasting, standardized benchmark datasets for evaluating such methods are lacking. Further, there is limited understanding on performance of these methods for novel outbreaks with limited historical data. In this paper, we propose IDOBE, a curated collection of epidemiological time series focused on outbreak forecasting. IDOBE compiles from multiple data repositories spanning over a century of surveillance and across U.S. states and global locations. We perform derivative-based segmentation to generate over 10,000 outbreaks covering multiple outcomes such as cases and hospitalizations for 13 diseases. We consider a variety of information-theoretic and distributional measures to quantify the epidemiological diversity of the dataset. Finally, we perform multi-horizon short-term forecasting (1- to 4-week-ahead) through the progression of the outbreak using 11 baseline models and report on their performance. In addition to standard metrics such as NMSE and MAPE for point forecasts, we include probabilistic scoring rules such as Normalized Weighted Interval Score (NWIS) to quantify the performance. We find that MLP-based methods have the most robust performance, with statistical methods having a slight edge during the pre-peak phase. IDOBE dataset along with baselines are released publicly on https://github.com/NSSAC/IDOBE to enable standardized, reproducible benchmarking of outbreak forecasting methods.

Large language models (LLMs) with hundreds of billions of parameters require powerful server-grade GPUs for inference, limiting their practical deployment. To address this challenge, we introduce the outlier-aware weight quantization (OWQ) method, which aims to minimize LLM's footprint through low-precision representation. OWQ prioritizes a small subset of structured weights sensitive to quantization, storing them in high-precision, while applying highly tuned quantization to the remaining dense weights. This sensitivity-aware mixed-precision scheme reduces the quantization error notably, and extensive experiments demonstrate that 3.1-bit models using OWQ perform comparably to 4-bit models optimized by OPTQ. Furthermore, OWQ incorporates a parameter-efficient fine-tuning for task-specific adaptation, called weak column tuning (WCT), enabling accurate task-specific LLM adaptation with minimal memory overhead in the optimized format. OWQ represents a notable advancement in the flexibility, efficiency, and practicality of LLM optimization literature. The source code is available at https://github.com/xvyaward/owq

This paper presents a dynamic cryptocurrency portfolio optimization strategy that integrates technical indicators and sentiment analysis to enhance investment decision-making. The proposed method employs the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to capture market momentum, while sentiment scores are extracted from news articles using the VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner) model, with compound scores quantifying overall market tone. The large language model Google Gemini is used to further verify the sentiment scores predicted by VADER and give investment decisions. These technical indicator and sentiment signals are incorporated into the expected return estimates before applying mean-variance optimization with constraints on asset weights. The strategy is evaluated through a rolling-window backtest over cryptocurrency market data, with Bitcoin (BTC) and an equal-weighted portfolio of selected cryptocurrencies serving as benchmarks. Experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves a cumulative return of 38.72, substantially exceeding Bitcoin's 8.85 and the equal-weighted portfolio's 21.65 over the same period, and delivers a higher Sharpe ratio (1.1093 vs. 0.8853 and 1.0194, respectively). However, the strategy exhibits a larger maximum drawdown (-18.52%) compared to Bitcoin (-4.48%) and the equal-weighted portfolio (-11.02%), indicating higher short-term downside risk. These results highlight the potential of combining sentiment and technical signals to improve cryptocurrency portfolio performance, while also emphasizing the need to address risk exposure in volatile markets.

Quantization has become a crucial step for the efficient deployment of deep neural networks, where floating point operations are converted to simpler fixed point operations. In its most naive form, it simply consists in a combination of scaling and rounding transformations, leading to either a limited compression rate or a significant accuracy drop. Recently, Gradient-based post-training quantization (GPTQ) methods appears to be constitute a suitable trade-off between such simple methods and more powerful, yet expensive Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) approaches, particularly when attempting to quantize LLMs, where scalability of the quantization process is of paramount importance. GPTQ essentially consists in learning the rounding operation using a small calibration set. In this work, we challenge common choices in GPTQ methods. In particular, we show that the process is, to a certain extent, robust to a number of variables (weight selection, feature augmentation, choice of calibration set). More importantly, we derive a number of best practices for designing more efficient and scalable GPTQ methods, regarding the problem formulation (loss, degrees of freedom, use of non-uniform quantization schemes) or optimization process (choice of variable and optimizer). Lastly, we propose a novel importance-based mixed-precision technique. Those guidelines lead to significant performance improvements on all the tested state-of-the-art GPTQ methods and networks (e.g. +6.819 points on ViT for 4-bit quantization), paving the way for the design of scalable, yet effective quantization methods.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

We study concentration inequalities for structured weighted sums of random data, including (i) tensor inner products and (ii) sequential matrix sums. We are interested in tail bounds and concentration inequalities for those structured weighted sums under exchangeability, extending beyond the classical framework of independent terms. We develop Hoeffding and Bernstein bounds provided with structure-dependent exchangeability. Along the way, we recover known results in weighted sum of exchangeable random variables and i.i.d. sums of random matrices to the optimal constants. Notably, we develop a sharper concentration bound for combinatorial sum of matrix arrays than the results previously derived from Chatterjee's method of exchangeable pairs. For applications, the richer structures provide us with novel analytical tools for estimating the average effect of multi-factor response models and studying fixed-design sketching methods in federated averaging. We apply our results to these problems, and find that our theoretical predictions are corroborated by numerical evidence.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities across many domains, yet their evaluation in financial quantitative tasks remains fragmented and mostly limited to knowledge-centric question answering. We introduce QuantEval, a benchmark that evaluates LLMs across three essential dimensions of quantitative finance: knowledge-based QA, quantitative mathematical reasoning, and quantitative strategy coding. Unlike prior financial benchmarks, QuantEval integrates a CTA-style backtesting framework that executes model-generated strategies and evaluates them using financial performance metrics, enabling a more realistic assessment of quantitative coding ability. We evaluate some state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary LLMs and observe substantial gaps to human experts, particularly in reasoning and strategy coding. Finally, we conduct large-scale supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning experiments on domain-aligned data, demonstrating consistent improvements. We hope QuantEval will facilitate research on LLMs' quantitative finance capabilities and accelerate their practical adoption in real-world trading workflows. We additionally release the full deterministic backtesting configuration (asset universe, cost model, and metric definitions) to ensure strict reproducibility.

Weight-only post-training quantization (PTQ) compresses the weights of Large Language Models (LLMs) into low-precision representations to reduce memory footprint and accelerate inference. However, the presence of outliers in weights and activations often leads to large quantization errors and severe accuracy degradation, especially in recent reasoning LLMs where errors accumulate across long chains of thought. Existing PTQ methods either fail to sufficiently suppress outliers or introduce significant overhead during inference. In this paper, we propose Pairwise Rotation Quantization (ParoQuant), a weight-only PTQ method that combines hardware-efficient and optimizable independent Givens rotations with channel-wise scaling to even out the magnitude across channels and narrow the dynamic range within each quantization group. We further co-design the inference kernel to fully exploit GPU parallelism and keep the rotations and scaling lightweight at runtime. ParoQuant achieves an average 2.4% accuracy improvement over AWQ on reasoning tasks with less than 10% overhead. This paves the way for more efficient and accurate deployment of reasoning LLMs.

In the complex domain of large language models (LLMs), striking a balance between computational efficiency and maintaining model quality is a formidable challenge. Navigating the inherent limitations of uniform quantization, particularly when dealing with outliers, and motivated by the launch of NVIDIA's H100 hardware, this study delves into the viability of floating-point (FP) quantization, particularly focusing on FP8 and FP4, as a potential solution. Our comprehensive investigation reveals that for LLMs, FP8 activation consistently outshines its integer (INT8) equivalent, with the performance edge becoming more noticeable in models possessing parameters beyond one billion. For weight quantization, our findings indicate that FP4 exhibits comparable, if not superior, performance to INT4, simplifying deployment on FP-supported hardware like H100. To mitigate the overhead from precision alignment caused by the disparity between weights and activations, we propose two scaling constraints for weight quantization that negligibly impact the performance compared to the standard W4A8 model. We additionally enhance our quantization methods by integrating the Low Rank Compensation (LoRC) strategy, yielding improvements especially in smaller models. The results of our investigation emphasize the immense potential of FP quantization for LLMs, paving the way for high-efficiency deployment in resource-limited settings.

Quantization Aware Training (QAT) is a neural network quantization technique that compresses model size and improves operational efficiency while effectively maintaining model performance. The paradigm of QAT is to introduce fake quantization operators during the training process, allowing the model to autonomously compensate for information loss caused by quantization. Making quantization parameters trainable can significantly improve the performance of QAT, but at the cost of compromising the flexibility during inference, especially when dealing with activation values with substantially different distributions. In this paper, we propose an effective learnable adaptive neural network quantization method, called Adaptive Step Size Quantization (ASQ), to resolve this conflict. Specifically, the proposed ASQ method first dynamically adjusts quantization scaling factors through a trained module capable of accommodating different activations. Then, to address the rigid resolution issue inherent in Power of Two (POT) quantization, we propose an efficient non-uniform quantization scheme. We utilize the Power Of Square root of Two (POST) as the basis for exponential quantization, effectively handling the bell-shaped distribution of neural network weights across various bit-widths while maintaining computational efficiency through a Look-Up Table method (LUT). Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed ASQ method is superior to the state-of-the-art QAT approaches. Notably that the ASQ is even competitive compared to full precision baselines, with its 4-bit quantized ResNet34 model improving accuracy by 1.2\% on ImageNet.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in image synthesis and related generative tasks. Nevertheless, their practicality for low-latency real-world applications is constrained by substantial computational costs and latency issues. Quantization is a dominant way to compress and accelerate diffusion models, where post-training quantization (PTQ) and quantization-aware training (QAT) are two main approaches, each bearing its own properties. While PTQ exhibits efficiency in terms of both time and data usage, it may lead to diminished performance in low bit-width. On the other hand, QAT can alleviate performance degradation but comes with substantial demands on computational and data resources. To capitalize on the advantages while avoiding their respective drawbacks, we introduce a data-free and parameter-efficient fine-tuning framework for low-bit diffusion models, dubbed EfficientDM, to achieve QAT-level performance with PTQ-like efficiency. Specifically, we propose a quantization-aware variant of the low-rank adapter (QALoRA) that can be merged with model weights and jointly quantized to low bit-width. The fine-tuning process distills the denoising capabilities of the full-precision model into its quantized counterpart, eliminating the requirement for training data. We also introduce scale-aware optimization and employ temporal learned step-size quantization to further enhance performance. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous PTQ-based diffusion models while maintaining similar time and data efficiency. Specifically, there is only a marginal 0.05 sFID increase when quantizing both weights and activations of LDM-4 to 4-bit on ImageNet 256x256. Compared to QAT-based methods, our EfficientDM also boasts a 16.2x faster quantization speed with comparable generation quality.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) techniques applied to weights, activations, and the KV cache greatly reduce memory usage, latency, and power consumption of Large Language Models (LLMs), but may lead to large quantization errors when outliers are present. Recent findings suggest that rotating activation or weight matrices helps remove outliers and benefits quantization. In this work, we identify a collection of applicable rotation parameterizations that lead to identical outputs in full-precision Transformer architectures, and find that some random rotations lead to much better quantization than others, with an up to 13 points difference in downstream zero-shot reasoning performance. As a result, we propose SpinQuant that optimizes (or learns) the rotation matrices with Cayley optimization on a small validation set. With 4-bit quantization of weight, activation, and KV-cache, SpinQuant narrows the accuracy gap on zero-shot reasoning tasks with full precision to merely 2.9 points on the LLaMA-2 7B model, surpassing LLM-QAT by 19.1 points and SmoothQuant by 25.0 points. SpinQuant also outperforms concurrent work QuaRot, which applies random rotations to remove outliers. In particular, for LLaMA-2 7B/LLaMA-3 8B models that are hard to quantize, SpinQuant reduces the gap to full precision by 30.2%/34.1% relative to QuaRot.

Predictive distributions need to be aggregated when probabilistic forecasts are merged, or when expert opinions expressed in terms of probability distributions are fused. We take a prediction space approach that applies to discrete, mixed discrete-continuous and continuous predictive distributions alike, and study combination formulas for cumulative distribution functions from the perspectives of coherence, probabilistic and conditional calibration, and dispersion. Both linear and non-linear aggregation methods are investigated, including generalized, spread-adjusted and beta-transformed linear pools. The effects and techniques are demonstrated theoretically, in simulation examples, and in case studies on density forecasts for S&P 500 returns and daily maximum temperature at Seattle-Tacoma Airport.

Almost every large language model that reaches a broad audience is quantized: trained in full precision, then compressed for efficiency. This step is assumed harmless and its safety is rarely re-checked. We find its principal side effect is increased bias that standard safety evaluation misses. Holding the model, its training, and the prompts fixed, a quantized model still refuses harmful requests, still avoids over-refusing benign prompts, and still selects the unbiased multiple-choice answer. Yet asked an open-ended question, the same model volunteers stereotypes in all eight languages we probe, in roughly one in four open-ended answers under an independent judge (~24% to ~27% across the compression ladder): it passes every standard check and still reaches users measurably more biased. The selective gap is a robust finding; whether open-ended bias further increases with compression is less certain, sensitive to the judge that scores it. We address both with QuantiBias, a benchmark that pairs a generative, multilingual stereotype probe with the refusal and multiple-choice controls that isolate open-ended generation, contrasts each build with and without reasoning, and rates the content severity of what it generates. Across two backbone models (Qwen and Gemma), a five-family screen, and eight benchmarks, quantizers allocate their extra precision by capability data that carries no bias-prevention signal, and reasoning before answering roughly halves the effect on some families while doing nothing on others. A quantized build must be re-evaluated for open-ended bias, not only on the short-form safeguards it already passes.

Quantization to low bitwidth is a standard approach for deploying large language models, however, a few extreme weights and activations stretch the dynamic range and reduce the effective resolution of the quantizer. A common mitigation approach is to apply some fixed orthogonal transforms, such as Hadamard matrices, before quantization, which typically reduces the dynamic range. Yet, these transforms ignore the statistics of the data, and their optimality is currently not understood. In this work, we derive, for the first time, closed-form optimal linear blockwise transforms for joint weight-activation quantization using standard data-free quantizers for common numerical formats. Specifically, we provide derivations of the optimal adaptive (data-aware) transforms for round-to-nearest (RTN), AbsMax-scaled block quantizers for both integer and floating-point formats. The resulting construction, which we call WUSH, combines a Hadamard backbone with a data-dependent component based on second-order moments, yielding a non-orthogonal transform that is provably optimal under mild assumptions and remains structured for efficient implementation. Preliminary experimental results show that our approach consistently improves upon the Hadamard transform for common formats.

In this paper, we address post-training quantization (PTQ) for large language models (LLMs) from an overlooked perspective: given a pre-trained high-precision LLM, the predominant sequential quantization framework treats different layers equally, but this may be not optimal in challenging bit-width settings. We empirically study the quantization impact of different layers on model accuracy, and observe that: (1) shallow/deep layers are usually more sensitive to quantization than intermediate layers; (2) among shallow/deep layers, the most sensitive one is the first/last layer, which exhibits significantly larger quantization error than others. These empirical observations imply that the quantization design for different layers of LLMs is required on multiple levels instead of a single level shared to all layers. Motivated by this, we propose a new PTQ framework termed Sliding-layer Quantization (SliderQuant) that relies on a simple adaptive sliding quantization concept facilitated by few learnable parameters. The base component of SliderQuant is called inter-layer sliding quantization, which incorporates three types of novel sliding window designs tailored for addressing the varying quantization sensitivity of shallow, intermediate and deep layers. The other component is called intra-layer sliding quantization that leverages an incremental strategy to quantize each window. As a result, SliderQuant has a strong ability to reduce quantization errors across layers. Extensive experiments on basic language generation, zero-shot commonsense reasoning and challenging math and code tasks with various LLMs, including Llama/Llama2/Llama3/Qwen2.5 model families, DeepSeek-R1 distilled models and large MoE models, show that our method outperforms existing PTQ methods (including the latest PTQ methods using rotation transformations) for both weight-only quantization and weight-activation quantization.

Diffusion Models (DM) have revolutionized the text-to-image visual generation process. However, the large computational cost and model footprint of DMs hinders practical deployment, especially on edge devices. Post-training quantization (PTQ) is a lightweight method to alleviate these burdens without the need for training or fine-tuning. While recent DM PTQ methods achieve W4A8 on integer-based PTQ, two key limitations remain: First, while most existing DM PTQ methods evaluate on classical DMs like Stable Diffusion XL, 1.5 or earlier, which use convolutional U-Nets, newer Diffusion Transformer (DiT) models like the PixArt series, Hunyuan and others adopt fundamentally different transformer backbones to achieve superior image synthesis. Second, integer (INT) quantization is prevailing in DM PTQ but doesn't align well with the network weight and activation distribution, while Floating-Point Quantization (FPQ) is still under-investigated, yet it holds the potential to better align the weight and activation distributions in low-bit settings for DiT. In response, we introduce FP4DiT, a PTQ method that leverages FPQ to achieve W4A6 quantization. Specifically, we extend and generalize the Adaptive Rounding PTQ technique to adequately calibrate weight quantization for FPQ and demonstrate that DiT activations depend on input patch data, necessitating robust online activation quantization techniques. Experimental results demonstrate that FP4DiT outperforms integer-based PTQ at W4A6 and W4A8 precision and generates convincing visual content on PixArt-alpha, PixArt-Sigma and Hunyuan in terms of several T2I metrics such as HPSv2 and CLIP.

Latent world models enable efficient planning by predicting future states in a compact representation space, but their performance depends critically on the quality of the learned latent distribution. LeWorldModel (LeWM) regularizes its latents toward an isotropic Gaussian using the Epps-Pulley (EP) objective. We show that the corrective gradients of EP rapidly vanish for isolated tail samples, leaving heavy-tailed deviations insufficiently controlled. To address this limitation, we propose QQWorld, which replaces EP with a quantile-quantile matching objective that directly aligns projected latent samples with rank-matched Gaussian quantiles, thereby maintaining effective corrective gradients in the tails. We further develop cross-batch QQ, which enlarges the effective ranking pool using detached samples from previous batches, and characterize its bias-variance trade-off. Across four control environments, QQWorld effectively improves the average planning success rate of LeWM, while consistently yielding better Gaussian alignment and thinner latent tails.

We present ITQ3_S (Interleaved Ternary Quantization -- Specialized), a novel 3-bit weight quantization format for LLMs integrating TurboQuant (TQ), a rotation-domain strategy based on the Fast Walsh-Hadamard Transform (FWHT). Conventional 3-bit methods suffer precision loss from heavy-tailed weight distributions and inter-channel outliers. ITQ3_S pre-rotates the weight space via FWHT before quantization, spreading outlier energy across the vector and inducing a near-Gaussian distribution amenable to uniform ternary coding. We derive a rigorous dequantization procedure fusing a 256-point Inverse FWHT into the CUDA shared-memory loading stage, ensuring reconstruction error is bounded exclusively by the ternary quantization grid with no additional error from the transform inversion. For any weight vector w in R^{256}, the reconstruction satisfies |mathbf{w} - w|_2 leq ε_q, strictly smaller than uniform 3-bit baselines that do not exploit rotation-induced distribution normalization. TurboQuant lacks a native CUDA kernel, precluding direct deployment; naively composing TQ with existing weight quantizers introduces domain mismatch errors that accumulate across layers, degrading quality below standard 3-bit baselines. ITQ3_S resolves this by co-designing the FWHT rotation and quantization kernel as a unified pipeline grounded in the IQ3_S weight format, with the inverse transform fused into the CUDA MMQ kernel. Empirically, on the NVIDIA RTX 5090 (Blackwell), ITQ3_S achieves perplexity competitive with FP16 while delivering throughput exceeding 1.5x that of 4-bit alternatives via optimized DP4A and Tensor Core scheduling. Our results establish ITQ3_S as a practical, mathematically grounded solution for high-fidelity LLM deployment on consumer hardware.

Weight-only quantization has become a standard approach for efficiently serving large language models (LLMs). However, existing methods fail to efficiently compress models to binary (1-bit) levels, as they either require large amounts of data and compute or incur additional storage. In this work, we propose NanoQuant, the first post-training quantization (PTQ) method to compress LLMs to both binary and sub-1-bit levels. NanoQuant formulates quantization as a low-rank binary factorization problem, and compresses full-precision weights to low-rank binary matrices and scales. Specifically, it utilizes an efficient alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) method to precisely initialize latent binary matrices and scales, and then tune the initialized parameters through a block and model reconstruction process. Consequently, NanoQuant establishes a new Pareto frontier in low-memory post-training quantization, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy even at sub-1-bit compression rates. NanoQuant makes large-scale deployment feasible on consumer hardware. For example, it compresses Llama2-70B by 25.8times in just 13 hours on a single H100, enabling a 70B model to operate on a consumer 8 GB GPU.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) has emerged as a widely adopted technique for compressing and accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs). The major challenge in LLM quantization is that uneven and heavy-tailed data distributions can expand the quantization range, thereby reducing bit precision for most values. Recent methods attempt to eliminate outliers and balance inter-channel differences by employing linear transformations; however, they remain heuristic and are often overlook optimizing the data distribution across the entire quantization space.In this paper, we introduce Quantization Space Utilization Rate (QSUR), a novel metric that effectively assesses the quantizability of transformed data by measuring the space utilization of the data in the quantization space. We complement QSUR with mathematical derivations that examine the effects and limitations of various transformations, guiding our development of Orthogonal and Scaling Transformation-based Quantization (OSTQuant). OSQuant employs a learnable equivalent transformation, consisting of an orthogonal transformation and a scaling transformation, to optimize the distributions of weights and activations across the entire quantization space. Futhermore, we propose the KL-Top loss function, designed to mitigate noise during optimization while retaining richer semantic information within the limited calibration data imposed by PTQ. OSTQuant outperforms existing work on various LLMs and benchmarks. In the W4-only setting, it retains 99.5\% of the floating-point accuracy. In the more challenging W4A4KV4 configuration, OSTQuant reduces the performance gap by 32\% on the LLaMA-3-8B model compared to state-of-the-art methods. https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant{https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant}.