Daily Papers

Machine learning (ML) model serving has become a dominant consumer of GPU infrastructure, yet capacity planning in these systems remains largely ad hoc. Under-provisioning leads to service-level objective (SLO) violations and production incidents, while over-provisioning results in substantial resource waste. This paper presents \sys, an industrial load testing framework for ML serving systems that systematically estimates serving capacity through an adaptive, feedback-driven search strategy. The approach leverages real-time performance signals, incorporating dampening, spike tolerance, and convergence detection to efficiently identify maximum sustainable throughput under SLO constraints. We evaluate \sys through a longitudinal analysis of 14 industrial case studies spanning four ML architecture classes: recommendation, ranking, vision, and NLP. This study demonstrates that systematic load testing leads to substantial improvements in GPU resource efficiency and operational reliability. Prior to adopting \sys, a significant fraction of model launches were under-provisioned, resulting in recurring incidents; these issues were substantially reduced after deployment. Our results show that ML-specific design decisions are critical to accurate capacity estimation: workload calibration using recorded traffic reduces estimation error from approximately 30\% to 2--6\%, while proper warmup handling yields a 22.2\% improvement in accuracy. Further analysis reveals key factors influencing prediction error, including model size and co-location effects. This paper distills six lessons and derive architectural guidelines for ML load testing, offering actionable insights for building reliable and efficient ML serving systems.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is a primary approach for deploying large language models without fine-tuning, and the quantized performance is often strongly affected by the calibration in PTQ. By contrast, in vision-language models (VLMs), substantial differences between visual and text tokens in their activation distributions and sensitivities to quantization error pose significant challenges for effective calibration during PTQ. In this work, we rethink what PTQ calibration should align with in VLMs and propose the Token-level Importance-aware Layer-wise Quantization framework (TLQ). Guided by gradient information, we design a token-level importance integration mechanism for quantization error, and use it to construct a token-level calibration set, enabling a more fine-grained calibration strategy. Furthermore, TLQ introduces a multi-GPU, quantization-exposed layer-wise calibration scheme. This scheme keeps the layer-wise calibration procedure consistent with the true quantized inference path and distributes the complex layer-wise calibration workload across multiple RTX3090 GPUs, thereby reducing reliance on the large memory of A100 GPUs. TLQ is evaluated across two models, three model scales, and two quantization settings, consistently achieving performance improvements across all settings, indicating its strong quantization stability. The code will be released publicly.

The rapid growth of large language model (LLM) inference services has increased the demand for efficient multi-tenant GPU scheduling. While modern inference runtimes such as vLLM improve throughput through continuous batching and optimized memory management, accurately estimating the runtime cost of heterogeneous inference requests remains challenging. In practice, admission-time workload estimates may deviate from observed execution behavior, leading to workload misclassification, queue imbalance, increased tail latency, and degraded Quality-of-Service (QoS). This paper presents DriftSched, a QoS-aware scheduling framework for multi-tenant LLM inference serving on NVIDIA L4 GPUs. DriftSched combines workload classification, token-budget estimation, tenant-aware queue management, and an online feedback mechanism to refine workload estimates using runtime observations. The framework evaluates FIFO, Priority, Weighted, Shortest-Job-First (SJF), and Aging Priority scheduling policies under heterogeneous multi-tenant workloads. Experimental results show that adaptive calibration reduces workload estimation error by an average of 38.8% (MAE) and 40.5% (RMSE), improving workload classification stability. Among all evaluated schedulers, SJF achieves the best overall performance, reducing median end-to-end latency by approximately 42% and P99 latency by approximately 16% relative to FIFO under sustained GPU contention. The results further indicate that scheduler selection has a greater impact on latency behavior than runtime calibration alone, while accurate workload characterization largely eliminates systematic estimation drift. This work contributes a reproducible framework for studying workload-estimation fidelity and QoS-aware scheduling in multi-tenant GPU inference systems.

This report studies on-device English-to-Traditional-Chinese subtitle translation for Taiwan under short inputs, short outputs, batch-size-one inference, low latency, and privacy constraints. These conditions limit the value of optimizations designed for long-context or high-throughput language-model serving. Starting from LMT-60-0.6B, preliminary profiling suggests that vocabulary projection becomes a more important decode-time cost after GGUF quantization reduces the relative cost of Transformer blocks. We replace the original 151k-token vocabulary with a 64k-token subtitle-domain tokenizer, migrate the embedding space, and adapt the model through embedding calibration followed by full supervised fine-tuning. On a fixed 500-example subset of the OpenSubtitles2024 test set, the LocalSubs achieves a 59.2% tie-excluded win rate against Google Translate under GPT-4o pairwise judging. Performance is strongest on short cues and declines as cue length increases. Preliminary Apple M2 Metal measurements on a 64k-vocabulary model show a 1.63times speedup over a 151k-vocabulary profiling baseline. The raw benchmark configuration is incomplete, so the latency result is treated as preliminary.

Recently computer-aided diagnosis has demonstrated promising performance, effectively alleviating the workload of clinicians. However, the inherent sample imbalance among different diseases leads algorithms biased to the majority categories, leading to poor performance for rare categories. Existing works formulated this challenge as a long-tailed problem and attempted to tackle it by decoupling the feature representation and classification. Yet, due to the imbalanced distribution and limited samples from tail classes, these works are prone to biased representation learning and insufficient classifier calibration. To tackle these problems, we propose a new Long-tailed Medical Diagnosis (LMD) framework for balanced medical image classification on long-tailed datasets. In the initial stage, we develop a Relation-aware Representation Learning (RRL) scheme to boost the representation ability by encouraging the encoder to capture intrinsic semantic features through different data augmentations. In the subsequent stage, we propose an Iterative Classifier Calibration (ICC) scheme to calibrate the classifier iteratively. This is achieved by generating a large number of balanced virtual features and fine-tuning the encoder using an Expectation-Maximization manner. The proposed ICC compensates for minority categories to facilitate unbiased classifier optimization while maintaining the diagnostic knowledge in majority classes. Comprehensive experiments on three public long-tailed medical datasets demonstrate that our LMD framework significantly surpasses state-of-the-art approaches. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/peterlipan/LMD.

Semantic caching cuts LLM inference costs by serving a cached response to semantically similar queries. Standard practice evaluates these systems using PR-AUC, a metric that only measures how well scores rank and ignores whether they are usable at a fixed threshold. We show this mismatch leads to systematically poor deployment choices, as models with the highest PR-AUC are often the worst in operation. We introduce Precision-Cache Hit Ratio (P-CHR) AUC, a cache-aware metric that measures precision across cache utilization levels, and Calibration Retention Rate (CRR), which captures how much offline ranking quality survives at deployment. We decompose the operational gap between offline and deployed quality into a recoverable calibration component and an irreducible structural component fixed by the dataset's positive rate. Our experiments show that the calibration gap is governed by the training objective rather than data scale, and post-hoc calibration only partially closes it. Ultimately, model selection for semantic caching is a calibration problem, not a ranking one, and measuring it is the first step to closing the gap.

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, has numerous flaws which we outline, and there is no clear empirical understanding of how its choices affect conclusions in practice, and what recommendations there are to counteract its flaws. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of choices in calibration measures including measuring all probabilities rather than just the maximum prediction, thresholding probability values, class conditionality, number of bins, bins that are adaptive to the datapoint density, and the norm used to compare accuracies to confidences. To analyze the sensitivity of calibration measures, we study the impact of optimizing directly for each variant with recalibration techniques. Across MNIST, Fashion MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet, we find that conclusions on the rank ordering of recalibration methods is drastically impacted by the choice of calibration measure. We find that conditioning on the class leads to more effective calibration evaluations, and that using the L2 norm rather than the L1 norm improves both optimization for calibration metrics and the rank correlation measuring metric consistency. Adaptive binning schemes lead to more stablity of metric rank ordering when the number of bins vary, and is also recommended. We open source a library for the use of our calibration measures.

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

Because stress is subjective and is expressed differently from one person to another, generic stress prediction models (i.e., models that predict the stress of any person) perform crudely. Only person-specific ones (i.e., models that predict the stress of a preordained person) yield reliable predictions, but they are not adaptable and costly to deploy in real-world environments. For illustration, in an office environment, a stress monitoring system that uses person-specific models would require collecting new data and training a new model for every employee. Moreover, once deployed, the models would deteriorate and need expensive periodic upgrades because stress is dynamic and depends on unforeseeable factors. We propose a simple, yet practical and cost effective calibration technique that derives an accurate and personalized stress prediction model from physiological samples collected from a large population. We validate our approach on two stress datasets. The results show that our technique performs much better than a generic model. For instance, a generic model achieved only a 42.5% accuracy. However, with only 100 calibration samples, we raised its accuracy to 95.2% We also propose a blueprint for a stress monitoring system based on our strategy, and we debate its merits and limitation. Finally, we made public our source code and the relevant datasets to allow other researchers to replicate our findings.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

Training algorithms, broadly construed, are an essential part of every deep learning pipeline. Training algorithm improvements that speed up training across a wide variety of workloads (e.g., better update rules, tuning protocols, learning rate schedules, or data selection schemes) could save time, save computational resources, and lead to better, more accurate, models. Unfortunately, as a community, we are currently unable to reliably identify training algorithm improvements, or even determine the state-of-the-art training algorithm. In this work, using concrete experiments, we argue that real progress in speeding up training requires new benchmarks that resolve three basic challenges faced by empirical comparisons of training algorithms: (1) how to decide when training is complete and precisely measure training time, (2) how to handle the sensitivity of measurements to exact workload details, and (3) how to fairly compare algorithms that require hyperparameter tuning. In order to address these challenges, we introduce a new, competitive, time-to-result benchmark using multiple workloads running on fixed hardware, the AlgoPerf: Training Algorithms benchmark. Our benchmark includes a set of workload variants that make it possible to detect benchmark submissions that are more robust to workload changes than current widely-used methods. Finally, we evaluate baseline submissions constructed using various optimizers that represent current practice, as well as other optimizers that have recently received attention in the literature. These baseline results collectively demonstrate the feasibility of our benchmark, show that non-trivial gaps between methods exist, and set a provisional state-of-the-art for future benchmark submissions to try and surpass.

This paper presents the Accurate Google Cloud Simulator (AGOCS) - a novel high-fidelity Cloud workload simulator based on parsing real workload traces, which can be conveniently used on a desktop machine for day-to-day research. Our simulation is based on real-world workload traces from a Google Cluster with 12.5K nodes, over a period of a calendar month. The framework is able to reveal very precise and detailed parameters of the executed jobs, tasks and nodes as well as to provide actual resource usage statistics. The system has been implemented in Scala language with focus on parallel execution and an easy-to-extend design concept. The paper presents the detailed structural framework for AGOCS and discusses our main design decisions, whilst also suggesting alternative and possibly performance enhancing future approaches. The framework is available via the Open Source GitHub repository.

With the widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs), serving LLM inference requests has become an increasingly important task, attracting active research advancements. Practical workloads play an essential role in this process: they are critical for motivating and benchmarking serving techniques and systems. However, the existing understanding of real-world LLM serving workloads is limited due to the lack of a comprehensive workload characterization. Prior analyses remain insufficient in scale and scope, thus failing to fully capture intricate workload characteristics. In this paper, we fill the gap with an in-depth characterization of LLM serving workloads collected from our worldwide cloud inference serving service, covering not only language models but also emerging multimodal and reasoning models, and unveiling important new findings in each case. Moreover, based on our findings, we propose ServeGen, a principled framework for generating realistic LLM serving workloads by composing them on a per-client basis. A practical use case in production validates that ServeGen avoids 50% under-provisioning compared to naive workload generation, demonstrating ServeGen's advantage in performance benchmarking. We will open-source ServeGen to foster future research.

Machine learning models are widely used, but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the output or not. For example, outputs can be associated with a confidence measure; if this confidence measure is strongly associated with likelihood of correctness, then the model is said to be well-calibrated. A well-calibrated confidence measure can serve as a basis for rational, graduated decision-making on how much review and care is needed when using generated code. Calibration has so far been studied in mostly non-generative (e.g. classification) settings, especially in software engineering. However, generated code can quite often be wrong: Given generated code, developers must decide whether to use directly, use after varying intensity of careful review, or discard model-generated code. Thus, calibration is vital in generative settings. We make several contributions. We develop a framework for evaluating the calibration of code-generating models. We consider several tasks, correctness criteria, datasets, and approaches, and find that, by and large, generative code models we test are not well-calibrated out of the box. We then show how calibration can be improved using standard methods, such as Platt scaling. Since Platt scaling relies on the prior availability of correctness data, we evaluate the applicability and generalizability of Platt scaling in software engineering, discuss settings where it has good potential for practical use, and settings where it does not. Our contributions will lead to better-calibrated decision-making in the current use of code generated by language models, and offers a framework for future research to further improve calibration methods for generative models in software engineering.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

We propose MCGrad, a novel and scalable multicalibration algorithm. Multicalibration - calibration in subgroups of the data - is an important property for the performance of machine learning-based systems. Existing multicalibration methods have thus far received limited traction in industry. We argue that this is because existing methods (1) require such subgroups to be manually specified, which ML practitioners often struggle with, (2) are not scalable, or (3) may harm other notions of model performance such as log loss and Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (PRAUC). MCGrad does not require explicit specification of protected groups, is scalable, and often improves other ML evaluation metrics instead of harming them. MCGrad has been in production at Meta, and is now part of hundreds of production models. We present results from these deployments as well as results on public datasets. We provide an open source implementation of MCGrad at https://github.com/facebookincubator/MCGrad.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating distribution and do not require model refitting. The framework addresses, among other examples, false discovery rate control in multi-label classification, intersection-over-union control in instance segmentation, and the simultaneous control of the type-1 error of outlier detection and confidence set coverage in classification or regression. Our main insight is to reframe the risk-control problem as multiple hypothesis testing, enabling techniques and mathematical arguments different from those in the previous literature. We use the framework to provide new calibration methods for several core machine learning tasks, with detailed worked examples in computer vision and tabular medical data.

Network pruning has emerged as a potential solution to make LLMs cheaper to deploy. However, existing LLM pruning approaches universally rely on the C4 dataset as the calibration data for calculating pruning scores, leaving its optimality unexplored. In this study, we evaluate the choice of calibration data on LLM pruning, across a wide range of datasets that are most commonly used in LLM training and evaluation, including four pertaining datasets as well as three categories of downstream tasks encompassing nine datasets. Each downstream dataset is prompted with In-Context Learning (ICL) and Chain-of-Thought (CoT), respectively. Besides the already intriguing observation that the choice of calibration data significantly impacts the performance of pruned LLMs, our results also uncover several subtle and often unexpected findings, summarized as follows: (1) C4 is not the optimal choice for LLM pruning, even among commonly used pre-training datasets; (2) arithmetic datasets, when used as calibration data, performs on par or even better than pre-training datasets; (3) pruning with downstream datasets does not necessarily help the corresponding downstream task, compared to pre-training data; (4) ICL is widely beneficial to all data categories, whereas CoT is only useful on certain tasks. Our findings shed light on the importance of carefully selecting calibration data for LLM pruning and pave the way for more efficient deployment of these powerful models in real-world applications. We release our code at: https://github.com/abx393/llm-pruning-calibration-data.

This research investigates how Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can assist in workload allocation strategies by detecting tasks with node affinity operators (referred to as constraint operators), which constrain their execution to a limited number of nodes. Using real-world Google Cluster Data (GCD) workload traces and the AGOCS framework, the study extracts node attributes and task constraints, then analyses them to identify suitable node-task pairings. It focuses on tasks that can be executed on either a single node or fewer than a thousand out of 12.5k nodes in the analysed GCD cluster. Task constraint operators are compacted, pre-processed with one-hot encoding, and used as features in a training dataset. Various ML classifiers, including Artificial Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbours, Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Ridge Regression, Adaptive Boosting, and Bagging, are fine-tuned and assessed for accuracy and F1-scores. The final ensemble voting classifier model achieved 98% accuracy and a 1.5-1.8% misclassification rate for tasks with a single suitable node.

This paper proposes a new metric to measure the calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers, called test-based calibration error (TCE). TCE incorporates a novel loss function based on a statistical test to examine the extent to which model predictions differ from probabilities estimated from data. It offers (i) a clear interpretation, (ii) a consistent scale that is unaffected by class imbalance, and (iii) an enhanced visual representation with repect to the standard reliability diagram. In addition, we introduce an optimality criterion for the binning procedure of calibration error metrics based on a minimal estimation error of the empirical probabilities. We provide a novel computational algorithm for optimal bins under bin-size constraints. We demonstrate properties of TCE through a range of experiments, including multiple real-world imbalanced datasets and ImageNet 1000.

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying uncertainty is especially critical in real-world settings, which often involve input distributions that are shifted from the training distribution due to a variety of factors including sample bias and non-stationarity. In such settings, well calibrated uncertainty estimates convey information about when a model's output should (or should not) be trusted. Many probabilistic deep learning methods, including Bayesian-and non-Bayesian methods, have been proposed in the literature for quantifying predictive uncertainty, but to our knowledge there has not previously been a rigorous large-scale empirical comparison of these methods under dataset shift. We present a large-scale benchmark of existing state-of-the-art methods on classification problems and investigate the effect of dataset shift on accuracy and calibration. We find that traditional post-hoc calibration does indeed fall short, as do several other previous methods. However, some methods that marginalize over models give surprisingly strong results across a broad spectrum of tasks.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

Post-training model compression is essential for enhancing the portability of Large Language Models (LLMs) while preserving their performance. While several compression approaches have been proposed, less emphasis has been placed on selecting the most suitable set of data (the so-called calibration data) for finding the compressed model configuration. The choice of calibration data is a critical step in preserving model capabilities both intra- and inter-tasks. In this work, we address the challenge of identifying high-performance calibration sets for both pruning and quantization by analyzing intrinsic data properties rather than model-specific signals. We introduce \textbf{ZipCal}, a model-agnostic data curation strategy that maximizes lexical diversity based on Zipfian power laws. Experiments demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms standard uniform random sampling across various pruning benchmarks. Notably, it also performs on par, in terms of downstream performance, with a state-of-the-art method that relies on model perplexity. The latter becomes prohibitively expensive at large-scale models and datasets, while \textbf{ZipCal} is on average sim240times faster due to its tractable linear complexityWe make the code and the experiments available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/zipcal-71CD/..

Autonomous agents based on large language models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving to handle multi-turn tasks, but ensuring their trustworthiness remains a critical challenge. A fundamental pillar of this trustworthiness is calibration, which refers to an agent's ability to express confidence that reliably reflects its actual performance. While calibration is well-established for static models, its dynamics in tool-integrated agentic workflows remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate verbalized calibration in tool-use agents, revealing a fundamental confidence dichotomy driven by tool type. Specifically, our pilot study identifies that evidence tools (e.g., web search) systematically induce severe overconfidence due to inherent noise in retrieved information, while verification tools (e.g., code interpreters) can ground reasoning through deterministic feedback and mitigate miscalibration. To robustly improve calibration across tool types, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning framework that jointly optimizes task accuracy and calibration, supported by a holistic benchmark of reward designs. We demonstrate that our trained agents not only achieve superior calibration but also exhibit robust generalization from local training environments to noisy web settings and to distinct domains such as mathematical reasoning. Our results highlight the necessity of domain-specific calibration strategies for tool-use agents. More broadly, this work establishes a foundation for building self-aware agents that can reliably communicate uncertainty in high-stakes, real-world deployments.

Calibration, the alignment of predicted probabilities with true outcome frequencies, is essential for reliable decision-making. While extensively studied for classification and regression, calibration has not been formally addressed for probabilistic label ranking, where the goal is to predict a distribution over orderings of a label set. Naively treating rankings as classes ignores their structure and fails to capture important modalities such as pairwise and top-k predictions. We formalize calibration for label ranking and develop a hierarchy of notions covering full rankings, sub-rankings, and top-k rankings. We prove that full-rank calibration implies the others but not conversely, and sub-ranking and top-k calibration are incomparable. Empirically, we find popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with substantial differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics. Applying our framework to RLHF reward models, we find that calibration correlates strongly but not perfectly with benchmark accuracy, suggesting it captures a meaningful quality dimension beyond top-1 accuracy. These findings motivate future work on understanding the downstream effects of miscalibration and developing methods to correct it.

Serving many task-specialized LLM variants is often limited by the large size of fine-tuned checkpoints and the resulting cold-start latency. Since fine-tuned weights differ from their base model by relatively small structured residuals, a natural approach is to represent them as compressed deltas. We propose a simple 1-bit delta scheme that stores only the sign of the weight difference together with lightweight per-axis (row/column) FP16 scaling factors, learned from a small calibration set. This design preserves the compactness of 1-bit deltas while more accurately capturing variation across weight dimensions, leading to improved reconstruction quality over scalar alternatives. From a systems perspective, a streamlined loader that transfers packed deltas in a single operation per module reduces cold-start latency and storage overhead, with artifacts several times smaller than a full FP16 checkpoint. The method is drop-in, requires minimal calibration data, and maintains inference efficiency by avoiding dense reconstruction. Our experimental setup and source code are available at https://github.com/kuiumdjiev/Per-Axis-Weight-Deltas-for-Frequent-Model-Updates.

This paper provides an experimentally verified formal law for calculating the uplift that diversity of thought provides in Large Language Model (LLM) ensembles. From first principles, we derive an exact decomposition of LLM ensemble lift into rescue and damage masses, which yields a compact heuristic for calculating uplift. From this we extract the metrics which predict ensemble performance: an accuracy adjusted correctness correlation, ϕ_{adj}, together with the accuracy gap and collective accuracy of the pair. We test the law on 767,520 inferences from ten open-weight models over two graduate-level science benchmarks, together with a novel agentic cybersecurity benchmark in which each model conducts digital-forensics investigations by multi-turn tool use in a network-isolated sandbox (23,520 graded trials including abstentions); all votes are released openly. Calibrated once on SuperGPQA at a 40:60 vote split, the heuristic predicts lift on the calibration set with Spearman's ρ=0.84 and, with its coefficients frozen, transfers to two datasets never used in calibration (ρ=0.51 on GPQA Diamond and 0.84 on the forensic tasks), whilst the measured swap mass tracks realised lift with R^2ge 0.96 throughout. Raw ϕ has almost no predictive power (R^2le 0.09 throughout); the accuracy-adjusted ϕ_{adj} is markedly superior (R^2=0.67 on SuperGPQA), and the heuristic combining these metrics is the most stable pre pooling predictor across the three datasets.

Objective: To propose and retrospectively validate an integrated framework addressing three barriers to clinical translation of readmission prediction: lack of explainability, absence of deployment reliability infrastructure, and inadequate demographic fairness evaluation. Materials and Methods: We constructed a cohort of 415231 adult admissions from the MIMIC-IV database (30-day readmission prevalence 18.0%), split 70/15/15. Logistic regression, XGBoost, and LightGBM models were trained on 26 features. SHAP provided per-patient explanations. Fairness was evaluated across 16 subgroups using AUC-ROC, false negative rate (FNR), and positive predictive value (PPV). Calibration was assessed using Brier scores and calibration curves. Results: XGBoost achieved AUC-ROC 0.696 (95% CI 0.691-0.701), outperforming or matching the LACE baseline (AUC 0.60-0.68). LightGBM achieved best calibration (Brier 0.146). Prior admissions were the dominant predictor. All subgroups met equity thresholds (delta AUC <= 0.05, delta FNR <= 0.10). Conclusion: This framework delivers competitive performance, clinically actionable explanations, and strong demographic equity. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Tomisin92/readmission-prediction.

Cloud platforms are increasingly relied upon to host diverse, resource-intensive workloads due to their scalability, flexibility, and cost-efficiency. In multi-tenant cloud environments, virtual machines are consolidated on shared physical servers to improve resource utilization. While virtualization guarantees resource partitioning for CPU, memory, and storage, it cannot ensure performance isolation. Competition for shared resources such as last-level cache, memory bandwidth, and network interfaces often leads to severe performance degradation. Existing management techniques, including VM scheduling and resource provisioning, require accurate performance prediction to mitigate interference. However, this remains challenging in public clouds due to the black-box nature of VMs and the highly dynamic nature of workloads. To address these limitations, we propose CloudFormer, a dual-branch Transformer-based model designed to predict VM performance degradation in black-box environments. CloudFormer jointly models temporal dynamics and system-level interactions, leveraging 206 system metrics at one-second resolution across both static and dynamic scenarios. This design enables the model to capture transient interference effects and adapt to varying workload conditions without scenario-specific tuning. Complementing the methodology, we provide a fine-grained dataset that significantly expands the temporal resolution and metric diversity compared to existing benchmarks. Experimental results demonstrate that CloudFormer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple evaluation metrics, achieving robust generalization across diverse and previously unseen workloads. Notably, CloudFormer attains a mean absolute error (MAE) of just 7.8%, representing a substantial improvement in predictive accuracy and outperforming existing methods at least by 28%.

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on in-domain test datasets, they are limited by their inability to yield reliable uncertainty estimates in domain-shift and out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. We aim to bridge this gap by proposing DAC, an accuracy-preserving as well as Density-Aware Calibration method based on k-nearest-neighbors (KNN). In contrast to existing post-hoc methods, we utilize hidden layers of classifiers as a source for uncertainty-related information and study their importance. We show that DAC is a generic method that can readily be combined with state-of-the-art post-hoc methods. DAC boosts the robustness of calibration performance in domain-shift and OOD, while maintaining excellent in-domain predictive uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that DAC leads to consistently better calibration across a large number of model architectures, datasets, and metrics. Additionally, we show that DAC improves calibration substantially on recent large-scale neural networks pre-trained on vast amounts of data.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Large language models (LLMs) offer powerful capabilities but incur substantial computational costs, driving the need for efficient compression techniques. This study evaluates the impact of popular compression methods - Magnitude Pruning, SparseGPT, and Wanda - on the LLaMA-2-7B model, focusing on the trade-offs between model size reduction, downstream task performance, and the role of calibration data. Our findings reveal that while SparseGPT and Wanda preserve perplexity even at 50% sparsity, they suffer significant degradation on downstream tasks, highlighting the inadequacy of perplexity as the sole evaluation metric. To address this, we introduce Jensen-Shannon (JS) Divergence as a more comprehensive metric that captures nuanced changes in model behavior post-compression. We further demonstrate that task-specific calibration data significantly enhances the downstream performance of compressed models compared to general calibration data. This research underscores the necessity for diverse evaluation metrics and careful calibration data selection to fully understand the complexities of LLM compression and its implications for practical applications.

Despite major advances in methodology, hyperparameter tuning remains a crucial (and expensive) part of the development of machine learning systems. Even ignoring architectural choices, deep neural networks have a large number of optimization and regularization hyperparameters that need to be tuned carefully per workload in order to obtain the best results. In a perfect world, training algorithms would not require workload-specific hyperparameter tuning, but would instead have default settings that performed well across many workloads. Recently, there has been a growing literature on optimization methods which attempt to reduce the number of hyperparameters -- particularly the learning rate and its accompanying schedule. Given these developments, how far away is the dream of neural network training algorithms that completely obviate the need for painful tuning? In this paper, we evaluate the potential of learning-rate-free methods as components of hyperparameter-free methods. We freeze their (non-learning rate) hyperparameters to default values, and score their performance using the recently-proposed AlgoPerf: Training Algorithms benchmark. We found that literature-supplied default settings performed poorly on the benchmark, so we performed a search for hyperparameter configurations that performed well across all workloads simultaneously. The best AlgoPerf-calibrated learning-rate-free methods had much improved performance but still lagged slightly behind a similarly calibrated NadamW baseline in overall benchmark score. Our results suggest that there is still much room for improvement for learning-rate-free methods, and that testing against a strong, workload-agnostic baseline is important to improve hyperparameter reduction techniques.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

Volumetry is one of the principal downstream applications of 3D medical image segmentation, for example, to detect abnormal tissue growth or for surgery planning. Conformal Prediction is a promising framework for uncertainty quantification, providing calibrated predictive intervals associated with automatic volume measurements. However, this methodology is based on the hypothesis that calibration and test samples are exchangeable, an assumption that is in practice often violated in medical image applications. A weighted formulation of Conformal Prediction can be framed to mitigate this issue, but its empirical investigation in the medical domain is still lacking. A potential reason is that it relies on the estimation of the density ratio between the calibration and test distributions, which is likely to be intractable in scenarios involving high-dimensional data. To circumvent this, we propose an efficient approach for density ratio estimation relying on the compressed latent representations generated by the segmentation model. Our experiments demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to reduce the coverage error in the presence of covariate shifts, in both synthetic and real-world settings. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/benolmbrt/wcp_miccai

Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model prediction probabilities to bin the data and evaluate calibration error. We propose a more generalized definition of calibration error called Partitioned Calibration Error (PCE), revealing that the key difference among these calibration error metrics lies in how the data space is partitioned. We put forth an intuitive proposition that an accurate model should be calibrated across any partition, suggesting that the input space partitioning can extend beyond just the partitioning of prediction probabilities, and include partitions directly related to the input. Through semantic-related partitioning functions, we demonstrate that the relationship between model accuracy and calibration lies in the granularity of the partitioning function. This highlights the importance of partitioning criteria for training a calibrated and accurate model. To validate the aforementioned analysis, we propose a method that involves jointly learning a semantic aware grouping function based on deep model features and logits to partition the data space into subsets. Subsequently, a separate calibration function is learned for each subset. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves significant performance improvements across multiple datasets and network architectures, thus highlighting the importance of the partitioning function for calibration.

The bio-inspired event camera has garnered extensive research attention in recent years, owing to its significant potential derived from its high dynamic range and low latency characteristics. Similar to the standard camera, the event camera requires precise intrinsic calibration to facilitate further high-level visual applications, such as pose estimation and mapping. While several calibration methods for event cameras have been proposed, most of them are either (i) engineering-driven, heavily relying on conventional image-based calibration pipelines, or (ii) inconvenient, requiring complex instrumentation. To this end, we propose an accurate and convenient intrinsic calibration method for event cameras, named eKalibr, which builds upon a carefully designed event-based circle grid pattern recognition algorithm. To extract target patterns from events, we perform event-based normal flow estimation to identify potential events generated by circle edges, and cluster them spatially. Subsequently, event clusters associated with the same grid circles are matched and grouped using normal flows, for subsequent time-varying ellipse estimation. Fitted ellipse centers are time-synchronized, for final grid pattern recognition. We conducted extensive experiments to evaluate the performance of eKalibr in terms of pattern extraction and intrinsic calibration. The implementation of eKalibr is open-sourced at (https://github.com/Unsigned-Long/eKalibr) to benefit the research community.

Training a model to predict the next step in a concurrent program is harder than it looks: two runs of the same program from the same trace prefix can produce different next events, both valid, because the scheduler is nondeterministic. A model trained against a single label is learning to guess one outcome of a random process. We turn this around and use the nondeterminism as a training signal. We run each program many times, aggregate the observed next events into an empirical distribution, and fine-tune a 7B model to match that distribution with a KL objective. On 798 held-out predictions drawn from real production Go bugs (CockroachDB, Kubernetes, gRPC, etcd), fine-tuning on fewer than a thousand traces reaches 36.2% accuracy, ahead of Gemini 3.5 Flash used zero-shot (34.8%) and the same model without fine-tuning (28.6%). Distribution training matches cross-entropy on accuracy (35.8% vs. 36.2%) while reducing Expected Calibration Error from 0.205 to 0.169. We also derive a formal goroutine-leak signature for a class of select-blocked goroutines where P(GoUnblock)=0 holds by scheduler semantics, not by learning. We release the dataset, trained adapters, and all tooling.

We consider the issue of calibration in large language models (LLM). Recent studies have found that common interventions such as instruction tuning often result in poorly calibrated LLMs. Although calibration is well-explored in traditional applications, calibrating LLMs is uniquely challenging. These challenges stem as much from the severe computational requirements of LLMs as from their versatility, which allows them to be applied to diverse tasks. Addressing these challenges, we propose THERMOMETER, a calibration approach tailored to LLMs. THERMOMETER learns an auxiliary model, given data from multiple tasks, for calibrating a LLM. It is computationally efficient, preserves the accuracy of the LLM, and produces better-calibrated responses for new tasks. Extensive empirical evaluations across various benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

Neural network calibration is an essential task in deep learning to ensure consistency between the confidence of model prediction and the true correctness likelihood. In this paper, we propose a new post-processing calibration method called Neural Clamping, which employs a simple joint input-output transformation on a pre-trained classifier via a learnable universal input perturbation and an output temperature scaling parameter. Moreover, we provide theoretical explanations on why Neural Clamping is provably better than temperature scaling. Evaluated on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet image recognition datasets and a variety of deep neural network models, our empirical results show that Neural Clamping significantly outperforms state-of-the-art post-processing calibration methods.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions. Recent time series CP methods improve local calibration using recent, weighted, or localized residuals. Yet local calibration can remain indirect, since broad residual weighting or additional adaptation procedures may dilute the evidence most relevant to the current prediction. This motivates a simple retrieval and correction strategy that selects similar past residuals as local evidence and then corrects the coverage error left by retrieval. In this paper, we propose Retrieval--Corrected Conformal Prediction (RCCP), a retrieval-augmented calibration method for time series prediction intervals. RCCP builds an asymmetric interval from retrieved one-sided residuals and calibrates its normalized retrieval error with a scalar conformal correction. Thus, retrieval provides local residual evidence, while conformal correction determines the final scale needed for coverage. We provide a coverage-gap bound based on the stability of the normalized retrieval error distribution. Across standard benchmarks and backbone forecasters, RCCP attains the target coverage in every setting and achieves the lowest Winkler scores, with fewer severe misses. RCCP also achieves low calibration and inference overhead, showing that retrieval-corrected calibration is an effective and scalable approach to uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/jinsaaang/rccp.

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We propose a natively multiclass calibration method applicable to classifiers from any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions and generalising the beta calibration method from binary classification. It is easily implemented with neural nets since it is equivalent to log-transforming the uncalibrated probabilities, followed by one linear layer and softmax. Experiments demonstrate improved probabilistic predictions according to multiple measures (confidence-ECE, classwise-ECE, log-loss, Brier score) across a wide range of datasets and classifiers. Parameters of the learned Dirichlet calibration map provide insights to the biases in the uncalibrated model.

With the advancement of deep learning technology, neural networks have demonstrated their excellent ability to provide accurate predictions in many tasks. However, a lack of consideration for neural network calibration will not gain trust from humans, even for high-accuracy models. In this regard, the gap between the confidence of the model's predictions and the actual correctness likelihood must be bridged to derive a well-calibrated model. In this paper, we introduce the Neural Clamping Toolkit, the first open-source framework designed to help developers employ state-of-the-art model-agnostic calibrated models. Furthermore, we provide animations and interactive sections in the demonstration to familiarize researchers with calibration in neural networks. A Colab tutorial on utilizing our toolkit is also introduced.

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions made by large language models (LLMs) in binary text classification tasks remains a challenge. Calibration, in the context of LLMs, refers to the alignment between the model's predicted probabilities and the actual correctness of its predictions. A well-calibrated model should produce probabilities that accurately reflect the likelihood of its predictions being correct. We propose a novel approach that utilizes the inductive Venn--Abers predictor (IVAP) to calibrate the probabilities associated with the output tokens corresponding to the binary labels. Our experiments on the BoolQ dataset using the Llama 2 model demonstrate that IVAP consistently outperforms the commonly used temperature scaling method for various label token choices, achieving well-calibrated probabilities while maintaining high predictive quality. Our findings contribute to the understanding of calibration techniques for LLMs and provide a practical solution for obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates in binary question answering tasks, enhancing the interpretability and trustworthiness of LLM predictions.

Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to boost human productivity by speeding up task completion -- provided users know when to offload cognitive work to them. But we do not know if users are well-calibrated in estimating these potential time savings. We conducted a preregistered large-scale behavioral study (N = 1237) to characterize mismatches between expectations and reality, with a focus on simple cognitive tasks. While actual completion times between independent completion and AI-assisted completion did not differ, participants predicted AI to be significantly faster. The same bias was not observed when imagining help from another human participant. We identify a speedup illusion where people have accurate forecasts of independent completion times but significantly underestimate AI-assisted times. Additionally, time and effort dissociate: participants reported lower subjective effort with AI despite equivalent completion times. This suggests that completion time itself is not sufficient to characterize efficiency gains.

Checkpointing to preserve training states is crucial during the development of Large Foundation Models (LFMs), for training resumption upon various failures or changes in GPU resources and parallelism configurations. In addition, saved checkpoints are dispatched to evaluation tasks or transferred across different training stages (e.g., from pre-training to post-training). All these scenarios require resharding distributed checkpoints from one parallelism to another. In production environments, different LFMs are trained with various frameworks and storage backends, depending on model sizes and training scales. A high-performance checkpointing system is needed to enable efficient checkpoint management at scale throughout the lifecycle of LFM development. We introduce ByteCheckpoint, an industrial-grade checkpointing system for large-scale LFM training. ByteCheckpoint features: a parallelism-agnostic checkpoint representation that enables efficient load-time checkpoint resharding; a generic checkpoint saving/loading workflow to accommodate multiple training frameworks and support different storage backends; full-stack optimizations to ensure high I/O efficiency and scalability; a suite of monitoring tools to streamline large-scale performance analysis and bottleneck detection. Compared to existing open-source checkpointing systems [52, 58], ByteCheckpoint significantly reduces runtime checkpoint stalls, achieving an average reduction of 54.20x. For saving and loading times, ByteCheckpoint achieves improvements of up to 9.96x and 8.80x, respectively.

Large language models (LLMs) have facilitated a wide range of applications with distinct service-level objectives (SLOs), from latency-sensitive online tasks like interactive chatbots to throughput-oriented offline workloads like document summarization. The existing deployment model, which dedicates machines to each workload, simplifies SLO management but often leads to poor resource utilization. This paper introduces HyGen, an interference-aware LLM serving system that enables efficient co-location of online and offline workloads while preserving latency requirements. HyGen incorporates two key innovations: (1) performance control mechanisms, including a latency predictor to estimate batch execution time and an SLO-aware profiler to quantify latency interference, and (2) SLO-aware offline scheduling policies that maximize serving throughput and prevent starvation, without compromising online serving latency. Our evaluation on production workloads shows that HyGen achieves up to 3.87x overall throughput and 5.84x offline throughput gains over online and hybrid serving baselines, respectively, while strictly satisfying latency SLOs.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

A well-calibrated model should express confidence that matches its actual accuracy -- when it claims 80\% confidence, it should be correct 80\% of the time. While large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance across diverse tasks, their epistemic calibration remains poorly understood. We introduce KalshiBench, a benchmark of 300 prediction market questions from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, with verifiable real-world outcomes occurring after model training cutoffs. Unlike traditional benchmarks measuring accuracy on static knowledge, KalshiBench evaluates whether models can appropriately quantify uncertainty about genuinely unknown future events. We evaluate five frontier models -- Claude Opus 4.5, GPT-5.2, DeepSeek-V3.2, Qwen3-235B, and Kimi-K2 -- and find systematic overconfidence across all models. Even the best-calibrated model (Claude Opus 4.5, ECE=0.120) shows substantial calibration errors, while reasoning-enhanced models like GPT-5.2-XHigh exhibit worse calibration (ECE=0.395) despite comparable accuracy. Critically, only one model achieves a positive Brier Skill Score, indicating most models perform worse than simply predicting base rates. Our findings suggest that scaling and enhanced reasoning do not automatically confer calibration benefits, highlighting epistemic calibration as a distinct capability requiring targeted development.

AI agents are rapidly advancing from passive language models to autonomous systems executing complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their overconfidence in failure remains a fundamental barrier to deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing calibration methods, built for static single-turn outputs, cannot address the unique challenges of agentic systems, such as compounding errors along trajectories, uncertainty from external tools, and opaque failure modes. To address these challenges, we introduce, for the first time, the problem of Agentic Confidence Calibration and propose Holistic Trajectory Calibration (HTC), a novel diagnostic framework that extracts rich process-level features ranging from macro dynamics to micro stability across an agent's entire trajectory. Powered by a simple, interpretable model, HTC consistently surpasses strong baselines in both calibration and discrimination, across eight benchmarks, multiple LLMs, and diverse agent frameworks. Beyond performance, HTC delivers three essential advances: it provides interpretability by revealing the signals behind failure, enables transferability by applying across domains without retraining, and achieves generalization through a General Agent Calibrator (GAC) that achieves the best calibration (lowest ECE) on the out-of-domain GAIA benchmark. Together, these contributions establish a new process-centric paradigm for confidence calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing and enhancing the reliability of AI agents.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly computationally complex, developing efficient deployment strategies, such as quantization, becomes crucial. State-of-the-art Post-training Quantization (PTQ) techniques often rely on calibration processes to maintain the accuracy of these models. However, while these calibration techniques can enhance performance in certain domains, they may not be as effective in others. This paper aims to draw attention to robust statistical approaches that can mitigate such issues. We propose a weight-adaptive PTQ method that can be considered a precursor to calibration-based PTQ methods, guiding the quantization process to preserve the distribution of weights by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the quantized weights and the originally trained weights. This minimization ensures that the quantized model retains the Shannon information content of the original model to a great extent, guaranteeing robust and efficient deployment across many tasks. As such, our proposed approach can perform on par with most common calibration-based PTQ methods, establishing a new pre-calibration step for further adjusting the quantized weights with calibration. We show that our pre-calibration results achieve the same accuracy as some existing calibration-based PTQ methods on various LLMs.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Apache Spark is a widely adopted framework for large-scale data processing. However, in industrial analytics environments, Spark's built-in schedulers, such as FIFO and fair scheduling, struggle to maintain both user-level fairness and low mean response time, particularly in long-running shared applications. Existing solutions typically focus on job-level fairness which unintentionally favors users who submit more jobs. Although Spark offers a built-in fair scheduler, it lacks adaptability to dynamic user workloads and may degrade overall job performance. We present the User Weighted Fair Queuing (UWFQ) scheduler, designed to minimize job response times while ensuring equitable resource distribution across users and their respective jobs. UWFQ simulates a virtual fair queuing system and schedules jobs based on their estimated finish times under a bounded fairness model. To further address task skew and reduce priority inversions, which are common in Spark workloads, we introduce runtime partitioning, a method that dynamically refines task granularity based on expected runtime. We implement UWFQ within the Spark framework and evaluate its performance using multi-user synthetic workloads and Google cluster traces. We show that UWFQ reduces the average response time of small jobs by up to 74% compared to existing built-in Spark schedulers and to state-of-the-art fair scheduling algorithms.

This paper presents a novel approach to categorization of modern workload schedulers. We provide descriptions of three classes of schedulers: Operating Systems Process Schedulers, Cluster Systems Jobs Schedulers and Big Data Schedulers. We describe their evolution from early adoptions to modern implementations, considering both the use and features of algorithms. In summary, we discuss differences between all presented classes of schedulers and discuss their chronological development. In conclusion we highlight similarities in the focus of scheduling strategies design, applicable to both local and distributed systems.

Agentic workflows have emerged as a powerful paradigm for solving complex, multi-stage tasks, but serving them at scale is computationally expensive given the many LLM inferences that each request must pass through. Configuration selection, or the cost-aware assignment of workflow agents to specific LLMs, can reduce these costs, but existing approaches bind configuration decisions before request execution, making them ill-suited for the heterogeneous and lengthy execution of workflows. Specifically, system loads can fluctuate rapidly and substantially during a request's lifetime, causing fixed configurations to quickly become suboptimal. We present Aragog, a system that progressively adapts a request's configuration throughout its execution to match runtime dynamics. To make this practical despite the massive space of workflow configurations, Aragog decouples the problem into two core elements -- a one-time routing step that identifies all accuracy-preserving configurations, and a cheap per-stage scheduler that selects among them using up-to-date system observations -- and introduces novel strategies to accelerate each. Across diverse workflows and model families, Aragog increases maximum serving throughput by 50.0--217.0\% and reduces median latency by 32.5--78.9\% at peak request rates, while maintaining accuracy comparable to the most expensive configurations.

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

As AI-based code generation becomes widespread, researchers are investigating the calibration of code LLMs - ensuring their confidence scores faithfully represent the true likelihood of code correctness. To do so, we investigate multicalibration, which can capture additional factors about a coding problem, such as complexity, code length, or programming language used. We study four multicalibration approaches on three function synthesis benchmarks, using latest-generation code LLMs (Qwen3 Coder, GPT-OSS, DeepSeek-R1-Distill). Our results demonstrate that multicalibration can yield distinct improvements over both uncalibrated token likelihoods (+1.03 in skill score) and baseline calibrations (+0.37 in skill score). We study the influence of the aforementioned factors in ablations, and make our dataset (consisting of code generations, likelihoods, and correctness labels) available for future research on code LLM calibration.

Training terminal agents requires executable and verifiable tasks that are not merely solvable, but appropriately challenging for learning. Executable validation establishes feasibility, yet does not reveal how a task behaves relative to a given solver setting. In this paper, we present CalibForge, an autonomous terminal-task synthesis system that uses verified solver behavior to revise candidate tasks through adversarial solver calibration. Multi-solver calibration targets disagreement within a heterogeneous solver pool, whereas contrastive solver calibration targets a designated strong-pass/weak-fail relation; both operationalize a solver-relative learnable zone anchored in demonstrated solvability. Using CalibForge, we construct 5,431 calibrated terminal tasks. Our ablations show that both strategies yield more effective supervision than authoring and validation alone or ordinary single-solver feedback. Models trained on the full collection achieve 32.58% and 47.57% on Terminal-Bench 2.0. The largest improvements over the corresponding base model reach 24.71 percentage points on Terminal-Bench 2.0, 27.68 points on SWE-bench Pro, and 30.04 points on Doc2Repo. Together, these results support solver-relative learnability as a practical target for constructing effective and transferable agent training data.

Serving systems for Large Language Models (LLMs) are often optimized to improve quality of service (QoS) and throughput. However, due to the lack of open-source LLM serving workloads, these systems are frequently evaluated under unrealistic workload assumptions. Consequently, performance may degrade when systems are deployed in real-world scenarios. This work presents BurstGPT, an LLM serving workload with 10.31 million traces from regional Azure OpenAI GPT services over 213 days. BurstGPT captures LLM serving characteristics from user, model and system perspectives: (1) User request concurrency: burstiness variations of requests in Azure OpenAI GPT services, revealing diversified concurrency patterns in different services and model types. (2) User conversation patterns: counts and intervals within conversations for service optimizations. (3) Model response lengths: auto-regressive serving processes of GPT models, showing statistical relations between requests and their responses. (4) System response failures: failures of conversation and API services, showing intensive resource needs and limited availability of LLM services in Azure. The details of the characteristics can serve multiple purposes in LLM serving optimizations, such as system evaluation and trace provisioning. In our demo evaluation with BurstGPT, frequent variations in BurstGPT reveal declines in efficiency, stability, or reliability in realistic LLM serving. We identify that the generalization of KV cache management, scheduling and disaggregation optimizations can be improved under realistic workload evaluations. BurstGPT is publicly available now at https://github.com/HPMLL/BurstGPT and is widely used to develop prototypes of LLM serving frameworks in the industry.

The Internet of Things is an example domain where data is perpetually generated in ever-increasing quantities, reflecting the proliferation of connected devices and the formation of continuous data streams over time. Consequently, the demand for ad-hoc, cost-effective machine learning solutions must adapt to this evolving data influx. This study tackles the task of offloading in small gateways, exacerbated by their dynamic availability over time. An approach leveraging CPU utilization metrics using online and continual machine learning techniques is proposed to predict gateway availability. These methods are compared to popular machine learning algorithms and a recent time-series foundation model, Lag-Llama, for fine-tuned and zero-shot setups. Their performance is benchmarked on a dataset of CPU utilization measurements over time from an IoT gateway and focuses on model metrics such as prediction errors, training and inference times, and memory consumption. Our primary objective is to study new efficient ways to predict CPU performance in IoT environments. Across various scenarios, our findings highlight that ensemble and online methods offer promising results for this task in terms of accuracy while maintaining a low resource footprint.

LLM agents are expected to complete end-to-end units of work across software tools, business services, and local workspaces. Yet many agent benchmarks freeze a curated task set at release time and grade mainly the final response, making it difficult to evaluate agents against evolving workflow demand or verify whether a task was executed. We introduce Claw-Eval-Live, a live benchmark for workflow agents that separates a refreshable signal layer, updated across releases from public workflow-demand signals, from a reproducible, time-stamped release snapshot. Each release is constructed from public workflow-demand signals, with ClawHub Top-500 skills used in the current release, and materialized as controlled tasks with fixed fixtures, services, workspaces, and graders. For grading, Claw-Eval-Live records execution traces, audit logs, service state, and post-run workspace artifacts, using deterministic checks when evidence is sufficient and structured LLM judging only for semantic dimensions. The release contains 105 tasks spanning controlled business services and local workspace repair, and evaluates 13 frontier models under a shared public pass rule. Experiments reveal that reliable workflow automation remains far from solved: the leading model passes only 66.7% of tasks and no model reaches 70%. Failures are structured by task family and execution surface, with HR, management, and multi-system business workflows as persistent bottlenecks and local workspace repair comparatively easier but unsaturated. Leaderboard rank alone is insufficient because models with similar pass rates can diverge in overall completion, and task-level discrimination concentrates in a middle band of tasks. Claw-Eval-Live suggests that workflow-agent evaluation should be grounded twice, in fresh external demand and in verifiable agent action.

Pruning and quantization form the foundation of model compression for neural networks, enabling efficient inference for large language models (LLMs). Recently, various quantization and pruning techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in a post-training setting. They rely upon calibration data, a small set of unlabeled examples, to generate layer activations. However, no prior work has systematically investigated how the calibration data impacts the effectiveness of model compression methods. In this paper, we present the first extensive empirical study on the effect of calibration data upon LLM performance. We trial a variety of pruning and quantization methods, tasks, models, and datasets. Surprisingly, we find substantial variations in downstream task performance, contrasting existing work that suggests a greater level of robustness to the calibration data. Finally, we make a series of recommendations for the effective use of calibration data in LLM quantization and pruning.

Collaborative perception enhances sensing in multirobot and vehicular networks by fusing information from multiple agents, improving perception accuracy and sensing range. However, mobility and non-rigid sensor mounts introduce extrinsic calibration errors, necessitating online calibration, further complicated by limited overlap in sensing regions. Moreover, maintaining fresh information is crucial for timely and accurate sensing. To address calibration errors and ensure timely and accurate perception, we propose a robust task-oriented communication strategy to optimize online self-calibration and efficient feature sharing for Real-time Adaptive Collaborative Perception (R-ACP). Specifically, we first formulate an Age of Perceived Targets (AoPT) minimization problem to capture data timeliness of multi-view streaming. Then, in the calibration phase, we introduce a channel-aware self-calibration technique based on reidentification (Re-ID), which adaptively compresses key features according to channel capacities, effectively addressing calibration issues via spatial and temporal cross-camera correlations. In the streaming phase, we tackle the trade-off between bandwidth and inference accuracy by leveraging an Information Bottleneck (IB) based encoding method to adjust video compression rates based on task relevance, thereby reducing communication overhead and latency. Finally, we design a priority-aware network to filter corrupted features to mitigate performance degradation from packet corruption. Extensive studies demonstrate that our framework outperforms five baselines, improving multiple object detection accuracy (MODA) by 25.49% and reducing communication costs by 51.36% under severely poor channel conditions. Code will be made publicly available: github.com/fangzr/R-ACP.

In industrial settings, surface defects on steel can significantly compromise its service life and elevate potential safety risks. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low efficiency and high costs. Although automated defect detection approaches based on Convolutional Neural Networks(e.g., Mask R-CNN) have advanced rapidly, their reliability remains challenged due to data annotation uncertainties during deep model training and overfitting issues. These limitations may lead to detection deviations when processing the given new test samples, rendering automated detection processes unreliable. To address this challenge, we first evaluate the detection model's practical performance through calibration data that satisfies the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) condition with test data. Specifically, we define a loss function for each calibration sample to quantify detection error rates, such as the complement of recall rate and false discovery rate. Subsequently, we derive a statistically rigorous threshold based on a user-defined risk level to identify high-probability defective pixels in test images, thereby constructing prediction sets (e.g., defect regions). This methodology ensures that the expected error rate (mean error rate) on the test set remains strictly bounced by the predefined risk level. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the average prediction set size and the risk level on the test set, establishing a statistically rigorous metric for assessing detection model uncertainty. Furthermore, our study demonstrates robust and efficient control over the expected test set error rate across varying calibration-to-test partitioning ratios, validating the method's adaptability and operational effectiveness.

Heterogeneous LLM serving stacks split scheduling into two layers that optimize in isolation: model routers pick a model from quality and cost signals while ignoring instance load, and serving load balancers optimize queues while ignoring quality. We present RouteBalance, a serving-aware scheduling layer that fuses both into a single online assignment over concrete model instances, jointly trading off quality, latency, and cost. A batched in-process predictor stack and dead-reckoned instance state keep the joint decision cheap on the request hot path (approx32 ms at 12 req/s). On a 13-instance, 28-GPU heterogeneous cluster serving four model sizes, a single deployed RouteBalance stack traces the upper region of the three-way quality-cost-throughput frontier. Sweeping one weight vector reaches both the highest routing-decision quality (DeepEval 0.419, +0.013 over the strongest baseline, 95% CI [{+}0.005,{+}0.022]; the ordering holds when a second judge re-scores the actually served text) and, at its cost-priority corner, per-request cost that ties the cheapest baseline. With router engineering equalized against concurrent-scoring baseline variants we build, its balanced preset serves at 2.8 s and 30 req/s, leading 2.6 to 4.1times ahead of enhanced BEST-Route at high load. (Deploying those routers as published, one serial scoring call per request, makes them collapse 23times under load, a deployment-architecture effect we isolate separately, not the routing result.) A four-arm isolation shows the benefit follows from pricing latency at model-selection time; the learned predictors contribute calibration and SLO headroom rather than the headline frontier. Code: https://github.com/AKafakA/route-balance

This paper provides an empirical implementation of the creative quality metric proposed in Calibrated Surprise (Zou & Xu, 2026a). The question this paper addresses is: does this mathematical claim hold at the engineering level? To make the answer as general as possible, we deliberately choose the strictest engineering conditions: low data cost and a small base model. Training data comes from approximately 100 expert chain-of-thought (CoT) annotations produced by the BC Protocol (Zou & Xu, 2026b). We also identify a data bias: most publicly available alignment datasets are skewed toward craft-related knowledge, while audience modeling and reality-logic coverage are systematically weak. We use the term Creative Quality Alignment (CQA) to describe this class of engineering methods. We also offer a supporting theoretical observation: in an LLM with a single conditional distribution architecture, calibrating the appreciation side automatically transfers to the generation side via architectural duality. This is the structural reason why ~100 CoT examples are sufficient -- not a purely empirical observation like LIMA (Zhou et al., 2023).

Existing acceleration techniques for video diffusion models often rely on uniform heuristics or time-embedding variants to skip timesteps and reuse cached features. These approaches typically require extensive calibration with curated prompts and risk inconsistent outputs due to prompt-specific overfitting. In this paper, we introduce a novel and robust discovery: a unified magnitude law observed across different models and prompts. Specifically, the magnitude ratio of successive residual outputs decreases monotonically and steadily in most timesteps while rapidly in the last several steps. Leveraging this insight, we introduce a Magnitude-aware Cache (MagCache) that adaptively skips unimportant timesteps using an error modeling mechanism and adaptive caching strategy. Unlike existing methods requiring dozens of curated samples for calibration, MagCache only requires a single sample for calibration. Experimental results show that MagCache achieves 2.1x and 2.68x speedups on Open-Sora and Wan 2.1, respectively, while preserving superior visual fidelity. It significantly outperforms existing methods in LPIPS, SSIM, and PSNR, under comparable computational budgets.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

Methods based on weight compensation, which iteratively apply quantization and weight compensation to minimize the output error, have recently demonstrated remarkable success in quantizing Large Language Models (LLMs). The representative work, GPTQ, introduces several key techniques that make such iterative methods practical for LLMs with billions of parameters. GPTAQ extends this approach by introducing an asymmetric calibration process that aligns the output of each quantized layer with its full-precision counterpart, incorporating a residual error into the weight compensation framework. In this work, we revisit the formulation of the residual error. We identify a sub-optimal calibration objective in existing methods: during the intra-layer calibration process, they align the quantized output with the output from compensated weights, rather than the true output from the original full-precision model. Therefore, we redefine the objective to precisely align the quantized model's output with the original output of the full-precision model at each step. We then reveal that the residual error originates not only from the output difference of the preceding layer but also from the discrepancy between the compensated and original weights within each layer, which we name the 'compensation-aware error'. By inheriting the neuron decomposition technique from GPTAQ, we can efficiently incorporate this compensation-aware error into the weight update process. Extensive experiments on various LLMs and quantization settings demonstrate that our proposed enhancements integrate seamlessly with both GPTQ and GPTAQ, significantly improving their quantization performance. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/list0830/ResComp.

Obtaining high-quality labels is costly, whereas unlabeled covariates are often abundant, motivating semi-supervised inference methods with reliable uncertainty quantification. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages a machine-learning predictor trained on a small labeled sample to improve efficiency, but it can lose efficiency under model misspecification and suffer from coverage distortions due to label reuse. We introduce Machine-Learning-Assisted Generalized Entropy Calibration (MEC), a cross-fitted, calibration-weighted variant of PPI. MEC improves efficiency by reweighting labeled samples to better align with the target population, using a principled calibration framework based on Bregman projections. This yields robustness to affine transformations of the predictor and relaxes requirements for validity by replacing conditions on raw prediction error with weaker projection-error conditions. As a result, MEC attains the semiparametric efficiency bound under weaker assumptions than existing PPI variants. Across simulations and a real-data application, MEC achieves near-nominal coverage and tighter confidence intervals than CF-PPI and vanilla PPI.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*, a phenomenon where models tend to be more overconfident in low proximity data (i.e., data lying in the sparse region of the data distribution) compared to high proximity samples, and thus suffer from inconsistent miscalibration across different proximity samples. We examine the problem over 504 pretrained ImageNet models and observe that: 1) Proximity bias exists across a wide variety of model architectures and sizes; 2) Transformer-based models are relatively more susceptible to proximity bias than CNN-based models; 3) Proximity bias persists even after performing popular calibration algorithms like temperature scaling; 4) Models tend to overfit more heavily on low proximity samples than on high proximity samples. Motivated by the empirical findings, we propose ProCal, a plug-and-play algorithm with a theoretical guarantee to adjust sample confidence based on proximity. To further quantify the effectiveness of calibration algorithms in mitigating proximity bias, we introduce proximity-informed expected calibration error (PIECE) with theoretical analysis. We show that ProCal is effective in addressing proximity bias and improving calibration on balanced, long-tail, and distribution-shift settings under four metrics over various model architectures. We believe our findings on proximity bias will guide the development of *fairer and better-calibrated* models, contributing to the broader pursuit of trustworthy AI. Our code is available at: https://github.com/MiaoXiong2320/ProximityBias-Calibration.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities out of box for a wide range of applications, yet accuracy still remains a major growth area, especially in mission-critical domains such as biomedicine. An effective method to calibrate the confidence level on LLM responses is essential to automatically detect errors and facilitate human-in-the-loop verification. An important source of calibration signals stems from expert-stipulated programmatic supervision, which is often available at low cost but has its own limitations such as noise and coverage. In this paper, we introduce a Pareto optimal self-supervision framework that can leverage available programmatic supervision to systematically calibrate LLM responses by producing a risk score for every response, without any additional manual efforts. This is accomplished by learning a harmonizer model to align LLM output with other available supervision sources, which would assign higher risk scores to more uncertain LLM responses and facilitate error correction. Experiments on standard relation extraction tasks in biomedical and general domains demonstrate the promise of this approach, with our proposed risk scores highly correlated with the real error rate of LLMs. For the most uncertain test instances, dynamic prompting based on our proposed risk scores results in significant accuracy improvement for off-the-shelf LLMs, boosting GPT-3 results past state-of-the-art (SOTA) weak supervision and GPT-4 results past SOTA supervised results on challenging evaluation datasets.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures scale model capacity through sparse expert activation, but their deployment remains memory-bound because all expert weights must reside in memory. Mixed-precision quantization can substantially reduce this footprint by assigning different bit-widths to different experts. Existing approaches, however, typically rely on calibration data to estimate expert importance and determine bit allocation. For frontier MoE LLMs, the original training data, and hence the true training distribution, is proprietary and inaccessible. As a result, calibration sets are inevitably imperfect surrogates, and this can misestimate expert utilization and lead to suboptimal bit allocation. Motivated by the substantial cross-expert quality variability observed in modern MoE models, and by the success of Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization (HT-SR) theory at predicting neural network model quality without access to training or testing data, we propose AlphaQ, a calibration-free bit-allocation method for MoE quantization. AlphaQ draws on HT-SR theory and follows a simple principle: experts with more heavy-tailed weight spectra are typically better trained and hence should receive higher bit-widths, while experts with weaker heavy-tailed structure can be quantized more aggressively. AlphaQ operationalizes this principle by measuring expert-wise spectral heavy-tailedness and solving a budget-constrained optimization problem that minimizes total quantization error under a global bit-budget constraint. Across several MoE models, AlphaQ consistently outperforms calibration-based baselines under matched bit budgets. Notably, on Qwen1.5-MoE, AlphaQ achieves near full-precision accuracy with an average expert precision of only 3.5 bits, while delivering more than 4times memory compression. Our code is available at https://github.com/Superone77/AlphaQ.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

A probabilistic classifier with reliable predictive uncertainties i) fits successfully to the target domain data, ii) provides calibrated class probabilities in difficult regions of the target domain (e.g.\ class overlap), and iii) accurately identifies queries coming out of the target domain and rejects them. We introduce an original combination of Evidential Deep Learning, Neural Processes, and Neural Turing Machines capable of providing all three essential properties mentioned above for total uncertainty quantification. We observe our method on five classification tasks to be the only one that can excel all three aspects of total calibration with a single standalone predictor. Our unified solution delivers an implementation-friendly and compute efficient recipe for safety clearance and provides intellectual economy to an investigation of algorithmic roots of epistemic awareness in deep neural nets.

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

Given the importance of getting calibrated predictions and reliable uncertainty estimations, various post-hoc calibration methods have been developed for neural networks on standard multi-class classification tasks. However, these methods are not well suited for calibrating graph neural networks (GNNs), which presents unique challenges such as accounting for the graph structure and the graph-induced correlations between the nodes. In this work, we conduct a systematic study on the calibration qualities of GNN node predictions. In particular, we identify five factors which influence the calibration of GNNs: general under-confident tendency, diversity of nodewise predictive distributions, distance to training nodes, relative confidence level, and neighborhood similarity. Furthermore, based on the insights from this study, we design a novel calibration method named Graph Attention Temperature Scaling (GATS), which is tailored for calibrating graph neural networks. GATS incorporates designs that address all the identified influential factors and produces nodewise temperature scaling using an attention-based architecture. GATS is accuracy-preserving, data-efficient, and expressive at the same time. Our experiments empirically verify the effectiveness of GATS, demonstrating that it can consistently achieve state-of-the-art calibration results on various graph datasets for different GNN backbones.

Monitoring complex industrial assets relies on engineer-authored symbolic rules that trigger based on sensor conditions and prompt technicians to perform corrective actions. The bottleneck is not detection but response: translating rules into maintenance steps requires asset-specific knowledge gained through years of practice. We investigate whether LLMs can serve as decision support for this rule-to-action step and introduce , a benchmark of 6{,}690 expert-validated multiple-choice questions from 118 rule-action pairs across 16 asset types. We contribute (i) a symbolic-to-MCQA pipeline normalizing rules to Disjunctive Normal Form with embedding-based distractor sampling, (ii) five variants probing distinct failure modes (Pro, Pert, Verbose, Aug, Rationale), and (iii) a benchmark of 29 LLMs and 4 embedding baselines. A human evaluation (9 practitioners, mean 45.0\%) confirms requires specialist knowledge beyond operational experience. Three findings stand out. The frontier has closed: the top three LLMs lie within one Macro point, with Bradley-Terry Elo placing claude-opus-4-6 30 points above the next model. Yet \,Pro exposes brittleness, with every model losing 13--60\% relative accuracy under distractor expansion. \,Aug exposes pattern-matching: under condition inversion, frontier models still select the original answer 49--63\% of the time. The deployment bottleneck is not capability but calibration: frontier models handle template-style fault detection but break under structural perturbation.

Agentic LLM applications interleave LLM generation requests with tool calls. These tool calls break the continuity of the workflow by creating pauses between LLM requests, bringing many challenges for the serving system, especially under multi-turn scenarios. Each pause potentially causes KV cache eviction and extra waiting time before entering the continuous batch for the following LLM request. Since these pauses happen for each call, this problem becomes increasingly severe as turn number grow for agentic programs. Previous works either fail to incorporate information from the tool call, evicting KV cache that leads to repetitive prefill or loading, or ignore the continuity of a multi-turn program, creating waiting time between turns that increases per-request latency. We present Continuum, a serving system to optimize job completion time for multi-turn agent workloads by combining tool-aware KV cache timeout with program-level scheduling. By predicting tool call durations in agentic workflows, Continuum selectively pins the KV cache in GPU memory with a time-to-live value based on total turn number. When combined with program-level first-come-first-serve, Continuum prevents scheduling bubbles, preserves multi-turn continuity, and optimizes for throughput for complex agentic workflows. By modeling the variability of tool call and agent program continuity, Continuum outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Our evaluation on real-world agentic workloads (SWE-Bench and BFCL) with Llama-3.1 8B/70B models shows that Continuum significantly improves the average job completion times, and remains performant across different hardware setups and DRAM offloading schemes. Preview code is available at: https://github.com/Hanchenli/vllm-continuum

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

Physical AI systems, including robots, autonomous vehicles, embodied agents and edge copilots, often run a different inference workload from cloud LLM serving: single-stream, batch-1 autoregressive decode, where one robot, camera feed or user session waits on the next token. This workload is usually described as memory-bandwidth-bound. Each decode step streams model weights and the active KV cache, so latency should scale with peak HBM bandwidth. We show that this account is true but incomplete. We measure batch-1 decode for three 7 to 8B-class GQA transformers across four NVIDIA GPUs: H100 SXM5, A100-80GB SXM4, L40S and L4. We evaluate context lengths from 2048 to 16384, producing 44 valid cells under a controlled bf16 SDPA setup. The achieved fraction of peak HBM bandwidth falls as peak bandwidth rises. On the headline Qwen-2.5-7B ctx=2048 cell, an L4 reaches roughly 81 percent of its analytic memory floor, while an H100 reaches only 27 percent. Physical-AI decode is memory-dominated, but faster memory does not translate into proportional latency gains. We test the missing term with a CUDA Graphs A/B experiment. On H100 at ctx=2048, CUDA Graphs improves decode latency by 1.259x across N=10 fresh sessions, with a 95 percent bootstrap confidence interval of 1.253 to 1.267. On L4, the same intervention gives only 1.028x. This isolates a launch-side overhead that becomes visible on fast GPUs but remains mostly hidden on slower, bandwidth-bound GPUs. The deployment implication is that memory savings matter only when the runtime realises them. On L4, bf16 decode sits close to the memory floor, but common quantised paths do not recover the expected 4x weight-traffic reduction: bnb-nf4 reaches 59.36 ms/step and AutoAWQ+Marlin reaches 45.24 ms/step from a 62.32 ms bf16 baseline. GPTQ+ExLlamaV2, with Ada-tuned int4 kernels, reaches 17.36 ms/step.

Graph-augmented retrieval combines dense similarity with graph-based relevance signals such as Personalized PageRank (PPR), but these scores have different distributions and are not directly comparable. We study this as a score calibration problem for heterogeneous retrieval fusion in multi-hop question answering. Our method, PhaseGraph, maps vector and graph scores to a common unit-free scale using percentile-rank normalization (PIT) before fusion, enabling stable combination without discarding magnitude information. Across MuSiQue and 2WikiMultiHopQA, calibrated fusion improves held-out last-hop retrieval on HippoRAG2-style benchmarks: LastHop@5 increases from 75.1% to 76.5% on MuSiQue (8W/1L, p=0.039) and from 51.7% to 53.6% on 2WikiMultiHopQA (11W/2L, p=0.023), both on independent held-out test splits. A theory-driven ablation shows that percentile-based calibration is directionally more robust than min-max normalization on both tune and test splits (1W/6L, p=0.125), while Boltzmann weighting performs comparably to linear fusion after calibration (0W/3L, p=0.25). These results suggest that score commensuration is a robust design choice, and the exact post-calibration operator appears to matter less on these benchmarks.

Industrial visual sim-to-real is often described as transferring from synthetic images to real images, but industrial deployment usually involves a broader mismatch between available evidence and required decisions. A system may be built from CAD renderings, simulated RGB-D observations, normal reference images, synthetic defects, pretrained feature spaces, or language prompts, yet deployed under different sensors, lighting, materials, fixtures, calibration, production variation, and rare defect modes. This review reframes industrial visual sim-to-real as a domain-gap problem organized by prior availability. We distinguish CAD-available settings, where explicit object geometry can support rendering, calibration, pose estimation, segmentation, and test-time geometric verification; CAD-unavailable settings, where geometry is replaced by normal-reference appearance, feature distributions, teacher-student residuals, synthetic anomaly assumptions, foundation features, or vision-language priors; and boundary-prior settings, where approximate models, templates, reference views, or semantic correspondences preserve only part of the CAD role. This framing connects CAD-based detection and 6D pose-estimation literature with industrial anomaly and surface-inspection literature that is usually reviewed separately. To make the taxonomy concrete, we use empirical anchors on T-LESS/BOP, MVTec AD, and VisA. The anchors show that CAD render count alone does not close transfer; source-distribution design, detector capacity, and small real calibration can matter more. They also show that CAD at test time creates a distinct verification channel through mask, pose, and depth consistency, whereas CAD-unavailable inspection relies on calibrated normality and feature deviation. The review therefore argues against a single cross-task leaderboard and instead asks what prior grounds the deployment decision.

Whenever we use devices to take measurements, calibration is indispensable. While the purpose of calibration is to reduce bias and uncertainty in the measurements, it can be quite difficult, expensive, and sometimes even impossible to implement. We study a challenging problem called self-calibration, i.e., the task of designing an algorithm for devices so that the algorithm is able to perform calibration automatically. More precisely, we consider the setup y = A(d) x + epsilon where only partial information about the sensing matrix A(d) is known and where A(d) linearly depends on d. The goal is to estimate the calibration parameter d (resolve the uncertainty in the sensing process) and the signal/object of interests x simultaneously. For three different models of practical relevance, we show how such a bilinear inverse problem, including blind deconvolution as an important example, can be solved via a simple linear least squares approach. As a consequence, the proposed algorithms are numerically extremely efficient, thus potentially allowing for real-time deployment. We also present a variation of the least squares approach, which leads to a~spectral method, where the solution to the bilinear inverse problem can be found by computing the singular vector associated with the smallest singular value of a certain matrix derived from the bilinear system. Explicit theoretical guarantees and stability theory are derived for both techniques; and the number of sampling complexity is nearly optimal (up to a poly-log factor). Applications in imaging sciences and signal processing are discussed and numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

In agentic scientific machine learning (SciML), large language model (LLM) agents can discover surrogate models and select one by an automated score, typically an error metric. A low error, however, does not establish that the predicted fields satisfy the physics that matter for mechanics, such as boundary conditions, superposition, stiffness scaling, or causality. We introduce Physics-Audited Agentic SciML (PA-SciML), a verification-first workflow for agentic SciML discovery. The workflow fixes a scoring evaluator before search, derives reviewable machine-checkable physics requirements, checks each trained candidate on its outputs, and separately searches prescribed input ranges or measured load-history spans for high-violation cases without reference solution fields. A surrogate is reported as verified only under the stated checks. When enabled, the workflow also adds advisory numerical probes before training and tests one modeling change at a time to record which isolated edits are associated with score gains before reuse. In the reported computational-solid-mechanics numerical examples, the static elasticity run selects a surrogate with lower validation error than the error-only baseline while both selected models pass the common linear-elastic checks. In the transient elastodynamics run, an error-only baseline with similar mean error fails a stricter causality check by responding to future parts of the loading history, while the selected surrogate passes the stated checks. The main distinction is per-candidate physics evidence on predicted fields, not a richer aggregate score.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

We present any4, a learned 4-bit weight quantization solution for large language models (LLMs) providing arbitrary numeric representations without requiring pre-processing of weights or activations. any4 yields higher accuracy compared to other related 4-bit numeric representation types: int4, fp4 and nf4, as evaluated on a range of model sizes, generations and families (Llama 2, Llama 3, Mistral and Mixtral). While any4 does not require preprocessing of weights or activations, it is also competitive with orthogonal techniques that require such preprocessing (e.g., AWQ and GPTQ). We also experiment with any3 and any2 and show competitiveness at lower bits. Additionally, we show that we can calibrate using a single curated diverse sample rather than hundreds of samples from a dataset as done in most quantization approaches. We also open source tinygemm, a latency optimized GPU matrix multiplication library for LLMs, that implements any4 using a GPU-efficient lookup table strategy along with other common quantization methods. We open source our code at https://github.com/facebookresearch/any4 .

Existing computer-use benchmarks fail to capture the realism, complexity, and long-horizon demands of real-world computer use, limiting their ability to reveal the limitations of frontier agents. We introduce OSWorld 2.0, a benchmark of 108 long-horizon computer-use workflows across everyday and professional tasks, designed to capture complex and challenging real-world phenomena. Each task represents a realistic end-to-end workflow that takes human users a median of about 1.6 hours to complete and requires an average of 318 tool calls with Claude Opus 4.7 using maximum thinking, compared with about 30 in OSWorld 1.0. OSWorld 2.0 targets challenge phenomena that are common in real workflows yet underrepresented in prior benchmarks, spanning interaction-design challenges such as streaming interaction and dynamic environments, as well as agent-pattern challenges such as cross-source reasoning, implicit-state inference, and visual-spatial precision. Tasks are grounded in authentic input artifacts and cross-referenced against realistic stateful user profile data, and include separate safety reports auditing safety-sensitive execution. Under our primary binary-completion metric at 500 steps, Claude Opus 4.8 with maximum thinking and batched tool calls scores best but still completes only 20.6% of tasks at a 54.8% partial score; GPT-5.5 is far more token-efficient yet plateaus near 13%. These results show that current agents are still far from professional-level computer use: rather than stumbling on basic GUI control or coding, they lose track of constraints, miss information that arrives mid-task, guess rather than ask the user, and skip verification, struggling most when a task hinges on hidden state they must recover.

Spreadsheets are widely used for business analysis, financial modeling, reporting, and decision-making. However, most existing spreadsheet benchmarks evaluate isolated operations such as single-formula generation or local cell edits, and therefore fail to capture end-to-end workflows in realistic business settings. We introduce SpreadsheetBench 2, a workflow-level benchmark for spreadsheet agents that covers three task categories: generation, debugging, and visualization. The benchmark is constructed from authentic business data, including financial reports and corporate filings, and is annotated and validated by domain experts. The benchmark contains 321 tasks; each instance averages 11.8 worksheets and requires 593.5 cell modifications, reflecting large multi-sheet workbooks with cross-sheet dependencies. We evaluate eight frontier large language models under a unified multi-turn agent scaffold, and additionally include several LLM-based spreadsheet products as complementary baselines. Results show that current systems remain far from reliable on real-world workflows: the best model achieves 34.89\% overall task accuracy, and debugging accuracy is as low as 12.00\%. Trajectory analysis and a failure taxonomy further indicate that insufficient spreadsheet inspection and incorrect target-cell selection are the dominant bottlenecks. Together, these findings position SpreadsheetBench 2 as a challenging testbed for advancing reliable spreadsheet automation. Project page: https://spreadsheetbench.github.io/

In this paper, we uncover a systematic bias in the evaluation paradigm of adopting large language models~(LLMs), e.g., GPT-4, as a referee to score and compare the quality of responses generated by candidate models. We find that the quality ranking of candidate responses can be easily hacked by simply altering their order of appearance in the context. This manipulation allows us to skew the evaluation result, making one model appear considerably superior to the other, e.g., Vicuna-13B could beat ChatGPT on 66 over 80 tested queries with ChatGPT as an evaluator. To address this issue, we propose a calibration framework with three simple yet effective strategies: 1) Multiple Evidence Calibration, which requires the evaluator model to generate multiple evaluation evidence before assigning ratings; 2) Balanced Position Calibration, which aggregates results across various orders to determine the final score; 3) Human-in-the-Loop Calibration, which introduces a balanced position diversity entropy to measure the difficulty of each example and seeks human assistance when needed. We also manually annotate the "win/tie/lose" outcomes of responses from ChatGPT and Vicuna-13B in the Vicuna Benchmark's question prompt, and extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach successfully mitigates evaluation bias, resulting in closer alignment with human judgments. We release our code and human annotation at https://github.com/i-Eval/FairEval to facilitate future research.

Safety alignment in Large Language Models is critical for healthcare; however, reliance on binary refusal boundaries often results in over-refusal of benign queries or unsafe compliance with harmful ones. While existing benchmarks measure these extremes, they fail to evaluate Safe Completion: the model's ability to maximise helpfulness on dual-use or borderline queries by providing safe, high-level guidance without crossing into actionable harm. We introduce Health-ORSC-Bench, the first large-scale benchmark designed to systematically measure Over-Refusal and Safe Completion quality in healthcare. Comprising 31,920 benign boundary prompts across seven health categories (e.g., self-harm, medical misinformation), our framework uses an automated pipeline with human validation to test models at varying levels of intent ambiguity. We evaluate 30 state-of-the-art LLMs, including GPT-5 and Claude-4, revealing a significant tension: safety-optimised models frequently refuse up to 80\% of "Hard" benign prompts, while domain-specific models often sacrifice safety for utility. Our findings demonstrate that model family and size significantly influence calibration: larger frontier models (e.g., GPT-5, Llama-4) exhibit "safety-pessimism" and higher over-refusal than smaller or MoE-based counterparts (e.g., Qwen-3-Next), highlighting that current LLMs struggle to balance refusal and compliance. Health-ORSC-Bench provides a rigorous standard for calibrating the next generation of medical AI assistants toward nuanced, safe, and helpful completions. The code and data will be released upon acceptance. red{Warning: Some contents may include toxic or undesired contents.}

Post-training quantization (PTQ) offers an efficient approach to compressing large language models (LLMs), significantly reducing memory access and computational costs. Existing compensation-based weight calibration methods often rely on a second-order Taylor expansion to model quantization error, under the assumption that the first-order term is negligible in well-trained full-precision models. However, we reveal that the progressive compensation process introduces accumulated first-order deviations between latent weights and their full-precision counterparts, making this assumption fundamentally flawed. To address this, we propose FOEM, a novel PTQ method that explicitly incorporates first-order gradient terms to improve quantization error compensation. FOEM approximates gradients by performing a first-order Taylor expansion around the pre-quantization weights. This yields an approximation based on the difference between latent and full-precision weights as well as the Hessian matrix. When substituted into the theoretical solution, the formulation eliminates the need to explicitly compute the Hessian, thereby avoiding the high computational cost and limited generalization of backpropagation-based gradient methods. This design introduces only minimal additional computational overhead. Extensive experiments across a wide range of models and benchmarks demonstrate that FOEM consistently outperforms the classical GPTQ method. In 3-bit weight-only quantization, FOEM reduces the perplexity of Llama3-8B by 17.3% and increases the 5-shot MMLU accuracy from 53.8% achieved by GPTAQ to 56.1%. Moreover, FOEM can be seamlessly combined with advanced techniques such as SpinQuant, delivering additional gains under the challenging W4A4KV4 setting and further narrowing the performance gap with full-precision baselines, surpassing existing state-of-the-art methods.

As LLM-based judges become integral to industry applications, obtaining well-calibrated uncertainty estimates efficiently has become critical for production deployment. However, existing techniques, such as verbalized confidence and multi-generation methods, are often either poorly calibrated or computationally expensive. We introduce linear probes trained with a Brier score-based loss to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates from reasoning judges' hidden states, requiring no additional model training. We evaluate our approach on both objective tasks (reasoning, mathematics, factuality, coding) and subjective human preference judgments. Our results demonstrate that probes achieve superior calibration compared to existing methods with approx10x computational savings, generalize robustly to unseen evaluation domains, and deliver higher accuracy on high-confidence predictions. However, probes produce conservative estimates that underperform on easier datasets but may benefit safety-critical deployments prioritizing low false-positive rates. Overall, our work demonstrates that interpretability-based uncertainty estimation provides a practical and scalable plug-and-play solution for LLM judges in production.

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

Understanding the interaction of neural and cardiac systems during cognitive activity is critical to advancing physiological computing. Although EEG has been the gold standard for assessing mental workload, its limited portability restricts its real-world use. Widely available ECG through wearable devices proposes a pragmatic alternative. This research investigates whether ECG signals can reliably reflect cognitive load and serve as proxies for EEG-based indicators. In this work, we present multimodal data acquired from two different paradigms involving working-memory and passive-listening tasks. For each modality, we extracted ECG time-domain HRV metrics and Catch22 descriptors against EEG spectral and Catch22 features, respectively. We propose a cross-modal XGBoost framework to project the ECG features onto EEG-representative cognitive spaces, thereby allowing workload inferences using only ECG. Our results show that ECG-derived projections expressively capture variation in cognitive states and provide good support for accurate classification. Our findings underpin ECG as an interpretable, real-time, wearable solution for everyday cognitive monitoring.

Modern machine learning (ML) has grown into a tightly coupled, full-stack ecosystem that combines hardware, software, network, and applications. Many users rely on cloud providers for elastic, isolated, and cost-efficient resources. Unfortunately, these platforms as a service use virtualization, which means operators have little insight into the users' workloads. This hinders resource optimizations by the operator, which is essential to ensure cost efficiency and minimize execution time. In this paper, we argue that workload knowledge is unnecessary for system-level optimization. We propose Reveal, which takes a hardware-centric approach, relying only on hardware signals - fully accessible by operators. Using low-level signals collected from the system, Reveal detects anomalies through an unsupervised learning pipeline. The pipeline is developed by analyzing over 30 popular ML models on various hardware platforms, ensuring adaptability to emerging workloads and unknown deployment patterns. Using Reveal, we successfully identified both network and system configuration issues, accelerating the DeepSeek model by 5.97%.

Quantum computing calibration depends on interpreting experimental data, and calibration plots provide the most universal human-readable representation for this task, yet no systematic evaluation exists of how well vision-language models (VLMs) interpret them. We introduce QCalEval, the first VLM benchmark for quantum calibration plots: 243 samples across 87 scenario types from 22 experiment families, spanning superconducting qubits and neutral atoms, evaluated on six question types in both zero-shot and in-context learning settings. The best general-purpose zero-shot model reaches a mean score of 72.3, and many open-weight models degrade under multi-image in-context learning, whereas frontier closed models improve substantially. A supervised fine-tuning ablation at the 9-billion-parameter scale shows that SFT improves zero-shot performance but cannot close the multimodal in-context learning gap. As a reference case study, we release NVIDIA Ising Calibration 1, an open-weight model based on Qwen3.5-35B-A3B that reaches 74.7 zero-shot average score.

Every public LLM cost calculator we surveyed treats GPU utilization as a fixed input -- entered by the user, baked in as a preset, or silently assumed at 100% -- never measured against the operator's actual load. We show that this assumption is the dominant source of error: on identical H100 hardware, effective cost spans \0.21 to 15.25 per million output tokens, an underutilization penalty of 2.5-24x across low-to-moderate enterprise loads (1-10 rps) and up to 36.3x near idle -- driven by one operator-controlled variable, offered request rate lambda, which sets in-flight concurrency via Little's Law and which no open-source calculator exposes. Because calculators take utilization as a user-supplied input, any utilization-naive estimate understates true cost by exactly 1/U, systematically mispricing self-hosting -- most severely over-selling it for low-traffic workloads. We propose a measurement methodology that parameterizes the relationship as C_eff = f(H, M, Q, lambda, L), validate it with 42 benchmarks across dense, ultra-sparse MoE, and sparse MoE models, and release vllm-cost-meter, an open-source cost meter that attaches to a live vLLM server and reports real \$/M-tokens against the operator's own traffic. We further show that FP8 quantization benefits the MoE architectures we tested roughly 2.2-2.4x more than the dense model (+69 to +74% vs. +31% peak throughput; n=3, broader validation needed), and our data are consistent with active parameter count, not total model size, being a primary predictor of saturation economics. To rule out single-hardware confounding we repeat the core sweep on A100 80GB PCIe (56 runs): the load-driven spread reproduces at 7.0-11.4x, the active-parameters ordering survives at FP8, and the dense-FP8 advantage inverts on silicon without native FP8 tensor cores -- a hardware-conditional caveat the framework already accommodates.

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the overconfidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been overlooked in prior research. To tackle this critical issue, we pioneer the development of a calibrated deep clustering framework. Specifically, we propose a novel dual-head deep clustering pipeline that can effectively calibrate the estimated confidence and the actual accuracy. The calibration head adjusts the overconfident predictions of the clustering head using regularization methods, generating prediction confidence and pseudo-labels that match the model learning status. This calibration process also guides the clustering head in dynamically selecting reliable high-confidence samples for training. Additionally, we introduce an effective network initialization strategy that enhances both training speed and network robustness. Extensive experiments demonstrate the proposed calibrated deep clustering framework not only surpasses state-of-the-art deep clustering methods by approximately 10 times in terms of expected calibration error but also significantly outperforms them in terms of clustering accuracy.

This review analyzes deployed and actively used workload schedulers' solutions and presents a taxonomy in which those systems are divided into several hierarchical groups based on their architecture and design. While other taxonomies do exist, this review has focused on the key design factors that affect the throughput and scalability of a given solution, as well as the incremental improvements which bettered such an architecture. This review gives special attention to Google's Borg, which is one of the most advanced and published systems of this kind.

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

Motivated by the theoretical interest in reconstructing long 3D trajectories of individual birds in large flocks, we developed CoMo, a co-moving camera system of two synchronized high speed cameras coupled with rotational stages, which allow us to dynamically follow the motion of a target flock. With the rotation of the cameras we overcome the limitations of standard static systems that restrict the duration of the collected data to the short interval of time in which targets are in the cameras common field of view, but at the same time we change in time the external parameters of the system, which have then to be calibrated frame-by-frame. We address the calibration of the external parameters measuring the position of the cameras and their three angles of yaw, pitch and roll in the system "home" configuration (rotational stage at an angle equal to 0deg and combining this static information with the time dependent rotation due to the stages. We evaluate the robustness and accuracy of the system by comparing reconstructed and measured 3D distances in what we call 3D tests, which show a relative error of the order of 1%. The novelty of the work presented in this paper is not only on the system itself, but also on the approach we use in the tests, which we show to be a very powerful tool in detecting and fixing calibration inaccuracies and that, for this reason, may be relevant for a broad audience.

Calibrating distributed hydrologic models is a critical bottleneck across operational water resources management - streamflow prediction, reservoir operation, drought monitoring, infrastructure design, and flood forecasting all depend on it. Each basin demands an expert to translate hydrograph signatures into adjustments of a high-dimensional parameter vector, and the resulting workflow does not transfer between watersheds. We ask: can frontier large language model (LLM) agents replace the human hydrologic modeler, and if not, what would it take? We benchmark nine frontier LLM agents - Claude Opus 4.6/4.7, Sonnet 4.6, GPT-5/5.4/5.4-pro, and Gemini 2.5-pro/3.1-pro/3-flash - on the operational CREST distributed hydrologic model used by the U.S. National Weather Service for flash-flood forecasting. Best-of-twenty-rounds Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) across four held-out gauges spanning 329-40,792 km2 ranges from -0.16 (GPT-5.4) to 0.75 (Sonnet 4.6); the ceiling reproduces across all three vendors and capability tiers, with the strongest models concentrating in the 0.65-0.75 band, and no model reaches the human-expert reference except Opus-4.7 on one gauge. We argue this gap is not a parameter-count problem but a domain-grounding problem. We then propose HYDROAGENT, fine-tuning open-weight Qwen3-4B with supervised fine-tuning on 2,576 expert calibration trajectories and Group-Relative Policy Optimization using NSE as a verifiable reward from online CREST simulations - reinforcement learning with simulation feedback (RLSF). For Earth system science, a small domain-tuned policy with simulator-in-the-loop RL is a more compute-efficient and physically faithful path than scaling generic frontier models, and the multi-modal richness of Earth data - remote sensing, in-situ time series, and forecaster narrative - makes domain agents a leveraged direction for AI in physical science.

Graphical User Interface (GUI) grounding aims to translate natural language instructions into executable screen coordinates, enabling automated GUI interaction. Nevertheless, incorrect grounding can result in costly, hard-to-reverse actions (e.g., erroneous payment approvals), raising concerns about model reliability. In this paper, we introduce SafeGround, an uncertainty-aware framework for GUI grounding models that enables risk-aware predictions through calibrations before testing. SafeGround leverages a distribution-aware uncertainty quantification method to capture the spatial dispersion of stochastic samples from outputs of any given model. Then, through the calibration process, SafeGround derives a test-time decision threshold with statistically guaranteed false discovery rate (FDR) control. We apply SafeGround on multiple GUI grounding models for the challenging ScreenSpot-Pro benchmark. Experimental results show that our uncertainty measure consistently outperforms existing baselines in distinguishing correct from incorrect predictions, while the calibrated threshold reliably enables rigorous risk control and potentials of substantial system-level accuracy improvements. Across multiple GUI grounding models, SafeGround improves system-level accuracy by up to 5.38% percentage points over Gemini-only inference.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents have shown promise in tackling complex tasks by interacting dynamically with the environment. Existing work primarily focuses on behavior cloning from expert demonstrations or preference learning through exploratory trajectory sampling. However, these methods often struggle to address long-horizon tasks, where suboptimal actions accumulate step by step, causing agents to deviate from correct task trajectories. To address this, we highlight the importance of timely calibration and the need to automatically construct calibration trajectories for training agents. We propose Step-Level Trajectory Calibration (STeCa), a novel framework for LLM agent learning. Specifically, STeCa identifies suboptimal actions through a step-level reward comparison during exploration. It constructs calibrated trajectories using LLM-driven reflection, enabling agents to learn from improved decision-making processes. We finally leverage these calibrated trajectories with successful trajectories for reinforced training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STeCa significantly outperforms existing methods. Further analysis highlights that timely calibration enables agents to complete tasks with greater robustness. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/WangHanLinHenry/STeCa.

Annotation through crowdsourcing draws incremental attention, which relies on an effective selection scheme given a pool of workers. Existing methods propose to select workers based on their performance on tasks with ground truth, while two important points are missed. 1) The historical performances of workers in other tasks. In real-world scenarios, workers need to solve a new task whose correlation with previous tasks is not well-known before the training, which is called cross-domain. 2) The dynamic worker performance as workers will learn from the ground truth. In this paper, we consider both factors in designing an allocation scheme named cross-domain-aware worker selection with training approach. Our approach proposes two estimation modules to both statistically analyze the cross-domain correlation and simulate the learning gain of workers dynamically. A framework with a theoretical analysis of the worker elimination process is given. To validate the effectiveness of our methods, we collect two novel real-world datasets and generate synthetic datasets. The experiment results show that our method outperforms the baselines on both real-world and synthetic datasets.

New classes arise frequently in our ever-changing world, e.g., emerging topics in social media and new types of products in e-commerce. A model should recognize new classes and meanwhile maintain discriminability over old classes. Under severe circumstances, only limited novel instances are available to incrementally update the model. The task of recognizing few-shot new classes without forgetting old classes is called few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL). In this work, we propose a new paradigm for FSCIL based on meta-learning by LearnIng Multi-phase Incremental Tasks (LIMIT), which synthesizes fake FSCIL tasks from the base dataset. The data format of fake tasks is consistent with the `real' incremental tasks, and we can build a generalizable feature space for the unseen tasks through meta-learning. Besides, LIMIT also constructs a calibration module based on transformer, which calibrates the old class classifiers and new class prototypes into the same scale and fills in the semantic gap. The calibration module also adaptively contextualizes the instance-specific embedding with a set-to-set function. LIMIT efficiently adapts to new classes and meanwhile resists forgetting over old classes. Experiments on three benchmark datasets (CIFAR100, miniImageNet, and CUB200) and large-scale dataset, i.e., ImageNet ILSVRC2012 validate that LIMIT achieves state-of-the-art performance.

While test-time scaling has enabled large language models to solve highly difficult tasks, state-of-the-art results come at exorbitant compute costs. These inefficiencies can be attributed to the miscalibration of post-trained language models, and the lack of calibration in popular sampling techniques. Here, we present Online Reasoning Calibration (ORCA), a framework for calibrating the sampling process that draws upon conformal prediction and test-time training. Specifically, we introduce a meta-learning procedure that updates the calibration module for each input. This allows us to provide valid confidence estimates under distributional shift, e.g. in thought patterns that occur across different stages of reasoning, or in prompt distributions between model development and deployment. ORCA not only provides theoretical guarantees on conformal risks, but also empirically shows higher efficiency and generalization across different reasoning tasks. At risk level δ=0.1, ORCA improves Qwen2.5-32B efficiency on in-distribution tasks with savings up to 47.5% with supervised labels and 40.7% with self-consistency labels. Under zero-shot out-of-domain settings, it improves MATH-500 savings from 24.8% of the static calibration baseline to 67.0% while maintaining a low empirical error rate, and the same trend holds across model families and downstream benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/wzekai99/ORCA.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integral as productivity assistants, but existing benchmarks fall short in rigorously evaluating their real-world instruction-following capabilities. Current benchmarks often (i) lack sufficient multilinguality, (ii) fail to capture the implicit constraints inherent in user requests, and (iii) overlook the complexities of multi-turn dialogue. To address these critical gaps and provide a more realistic assessment, we introduce TRUEBench (Trustworthy Real-world Usage Evaluation Benchmark)1, a novel benchmark specifically designed for LLM-based productivity assistants. TRUEBench distinguishes itself by featuring input prompts across 12 languages, incorporating intra-instance multilingual instructions, employing rigorous evaluation criteria to capture both explicit and implicit constraints, and including complex multi-turn dialogue scenarios with both accumulating constraints and context switches. Furthermore, to ensure reliability in evaluation, we refined constraints using an LLM validator. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TRUEBench presents significantly greater challenges than existing benchmarks; for instance, a strong model like OpenAI o1 achieved only a 69.07% overall pass rate. TRUEBench offers a demanding and realistic assessment of LLMs in practical productivity settings, highlighting their capabilities and limitations.

Significant progress has been made in photo-realistic scene reconstruction over recent years. Various disparate efforts have enabled capabilities such as multi-appearance or large-scale modeling; however, there lacks a welldesigned dataset that can evaluate the holistic progress of scene reconstruction. We introduce a collection of imagery of the Johns Hopkins Homewood Campus, acquired at different seasons, times of day, in multiple elevations, and across a large scale. We perform a multi-stage calibration process, which efficiently recover camera parameters from phone and drone cameras. This dataset can enable researchers to rigorously explore challenges in unconstrained settings, including effects of inconsistent illumination, reconstruction from large scale and from significantly different perspectives, etc.

Large-scale AI training is now fundamentally a distributed systems problem, and hardware failures have become routine operating conditions rather than rare exceptions. Public operational evidence from production training clusters, however, remains scarce. This technical report presents an empirical analysis of a 63-node NVIDIA B200 production cluster (504 GPUs), using 55 days of Prometheus time-series data and 73 days of operational logs covering 224 multi-node training sessions. The cluster operates within a cross-organizational environment in which five parties (SKT, Upstage, Lablup, NVIDIA Korea, and VAST Data) share a unified monitoring pipeline. This arrangement enabled joint diagnosis of a 60-node-scale storage I/O bottleneck that did not appear at 2-4-node scale, a production-scale phenomenon no single team could isolate alone. Drawing on a months-long pre-training campaign, we perform three quantitative analyses yielding four findings. First, statistical analysis over 751 Prometheus metrics and 10 XID-identified GPU failures achieves a 10/10 detection rate (2/10 pre-XID) at ~0.84 false positives per day. No single metric is consistently dominant across failure types, motivating a multi-signal detection strategy. Second, profiling 523 checkpoint events along the GPU VRAM to NFS path attributes the "bandwidth paradox" (1.4-10.4% utilization of 200 Gbps RoCE) to saturation of the 128-slot NFS RPC layer. Third, multi-node failure response shows concentrated exclusions (top 3 of 63 nodes account for >50% of all exclusions) and an auto-retry chain success rate of 33.3% over 12 chains (73 attempts), 2.7x the 12.5% manual recovery rate; the median retry interval is 11 min (IQR 10-11). All analyses are grounded in production infrastructure providing session-level workload management, GPU-centric scheduling, and unified observability.

Cloud computing is an established technology allowing users to share resources on a large scale, never before seen in IT history. A cloud system connects multiple individual servers in order to process related tasks in several environments at the same time. Clouds are typically more cost-effective than single computers of comparable computing performance. The sheer physical size of the system itself means that thousands of machines may be involved. The focus of this research was to design a strategy to dynamically allocate tasks without overloading Cloud nodes which would result in system stability being maintained at minimum cost. This research has added the following new contributions to the state of knowledge: (i) a novel taxonomy and categorisation of three classes of schedulers, namely OS-level, Cluster and Big Data, which highlight their unique evolution and underline their different objectives; (ii) an abstract model of cloud resources utilisation is specified, including multiple types of resources and consideration of task migration costs; (iii) a virtual machine live migration was experimented with in order to create a formula which estimates the network traffic generated by this process; (iv) a high-fidelity Cloud workload simulator, based on a month-long workload traces from Google's computing cells, was created; (v) two possible approaches to resource management were proposed and examined in the practical part of the manuscript: the centralised metaheuristic load balancer and the decentralised agent-based system. The project involved extensive experiments run on the University of Westminster HPC cluster, and the promising results are presented together with detailed discussions and a conclusion.