Update demo/scenarios.py

demo/scenarios.py

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 """
-Incident scenarios for the demo - EXPANDED VERSION
+Incident scenarios for the demo - EXPANDED VERSION WITH REALISM UPGRADES
+Version: 3.3.9+realism
 """
 
 INCIDENT_SCENARIOS = {
@@ -28,6 +29,57 @@ INCIDENT_SCENARIOS = {
             "engineer_hourly_rate": 150,
             "estimated_monthly_occurrences": 2,
             "enterprise_savings_percentage": 0.85
+        },
+        # ============ REALISM UPGRADES ============
+        "realism": {
+            "ranked_actions": [
+                {
+                    "rank": 1,
+                    "confidence": 87,
+                    "action": "Scale Redis cluster from 3 to 5 nodes",
+                    "rationale": "Immediate throughput increase, reduces contention",
+                    "risk": "Cold cache amplification: Medium",
+                    "tradeoff": "Adds $420/month infrastructure cost",
+                    "execution_time": "8-12 minutes",
+                    "success_rate": "94% based on 18 similar incidents"
+                },
+                {
+                    "rank": 2,
+                    "confidence": 62,
+                    "action": "Implement request coalescing with 500ms window",
+                    "rationale": "Reduces duplicate DB queries, lower blast radius",
+                    "risk": "Adds 150-200ms latency per request",
+                    "tradeoff": "Slower stabilization (15-20 minutes)",
+                    "rejection_note": "Secondary option if scaling unavailable"
+                },
+                {
+                    "rank": 3,
+                    "confidence": 34,
+                    "action": "Restart Redis cluster with warmup script",
+                    "rationale": "Clears fragmentation, resets eviction policies",
+                    "risk": "HIGH: 45-second service interruption",
+                    "rejection_reason": "Rejected: High data loss risk during peak traffic",
+                    "safety_override": "Required for Enterprise execution"
+                }
+            ],
+            "risk_assessment": {
+                "stampede_probability": "18%",
+                "cold_cache_impact": "Medium",
+                "data_inconsistency_risk": "Low",
+                "recovery_complexity": "Medium"
+            },
+            "constraints": {
+                "max_redis_nodes": 8,
+                "scaling_cooldown": "30 minutes",
+                "concurrent_connections": "25,000",
+                "data_size_gb": 42
+            },
+            "confidence_degradation": {
+                "initial": 94,
+                "after_8_min": 71,
+                "after_15_min": 52,
+                "escalation_threshold": 60
+            }
         }
     },
     
@@ -57,6 +109,42 @@ INCIDENT_SCENARIOS = {
             "engineer_hourly_rate": 150,
             "estimated_monthly_occurrences": 3,
             "enterprise_savings_percentage": 0.82
+        },
+        # ============ REALISM UPGRADES ============
+        "realism": {
+            "ranked_actions": [
+                {
+                    "rank": 1,
+                    "confidence": 82,
+                    "action": "Increase max_connections from 100 to 115 (+15%)",
+                    "rationale": "Immediate relief, within safe operating limits",
+                    "risk": "Disk I/O contention: Medium",
+                    "constraint": "DB max_connections: 82% utilized (pre)",
+                    "monitoring": "Monitor connection churn for 30 minutes"
+                },
+                {
+                    "rank": 2,
+                    "confidence": 58,
+                    "action": "Enable statement timeout (5s) + connection recycling",
+                    "rationale": "Prevents runaway queries, faster pool turnover",
+                    "risk": "Query cancellation may cause application errors",
+                    "tradeoff": "Adds development/testing overhead"
+                },
+                {
+                    "rank": 3,
+                    "confidence": 29,
+                    "action": "Switch to pgbouncer in transaction pooling mode",
+                    "rationale": "10x connection multiplexing possible",
+                    "risk": "HIGH: Requires application changes, 2-hour migration",
+                    "rejection_reason": "Rejected: Too invasive for incident response"
+                }
+            ],
+            "constraint_awareness": {
+                "disk_io_headroom": "Low",
+                "memory_available_gb": 8.2,
+                "pool_increase_cap": "+15%",
+                "monitoring_gap": "Connection churn not tracked"
+            }
         }
     },
     
@@ -85,34 +173,32 @@ INCIDENT_SCENARIOS = {
             "engineer_hourly_rate": 150,
             "estimated_monthly_occurrences": 1,
             "enterprise_savings_percentage": 0.79
-        }
-    },
-    
-    "API Rate Limit Storm": {
-        "description": "Third-party API rate limiting causing cascading failures",
-        "severity": "MEDIUM",
-        "component": "external_api_gateway",
-        "metrics": {
-            "rate_limit_hits_percentage": 95,
-            "error_rate": 42.8,
-            "retry_storm": True,
-            "cascade_effect_services": 3,
-            "queue_backlog": 8500
         },
-        "business_impact": {
-            "revenue_loss_per_hour": 3800,
-            "partner_sla_breach": True,
-            "data_sync_delay_hours": 4,
-            "customer_reports_delay_hours": 6
-        },
-        "roi_data": {
-            "hourly_revenue_loss": 3800,
-            "manual_recovery_hours": 1.25,
-            "enterprise_recovery_hours": 0.17,
-            "engineers_required": 3,
-            "engineer_hourly_rate": 150,
-            "estimated_monthly_occurrences": 4,
-            "enterprise_savings_percentage": 0.85
+        # ============ REALISM UPGRADES ============
+        "realism": {
+            "ranked_actions": [
+                {
+                    "rank": 1,
+                    "confidence": 76,
+                    "action": "Canary restart (1/4 pods) with heap dump analysis",
+                    "rationale": "Minimizes blast radius, enables root cause capture",
+                    "risk": "Cold-start latency: +2.3s per pod",
+                    "blast_radius_economics": {
+                        "canary_restart_cost": "$850",
+                        "full_restart_cost": "$3,400",
+                        "payment_retry_risk": "Medium",
+                        "safer_order": "Canary → scale → rollout"
+                    }
+                },
+                {
+                    "rank": 2,
+                    "confidence": 63,
+                    "action": "Increase heap from 2GB to 3GB with monitoring",
+                    "rationale": "Buy time for analysis, reduces restart frequency",
+                    "risk": "Delays root cause identification",
+                    "tradeoff": "Temporary fix, adds memory cost"
+                }
+            ]
         }
     },
     
@@ -141,6 +227,70 @@ INCIDENT_SCENARIOS = {
             "engineer_hourly_rate": 150,
             "estimated_monthly_occurrences": 0.5,
             "enterprise_savings_percentage": 0.88
+        },
+        # ============ REALISM UPGRADES ============
+        "realism": {
+            "competing_hypotheses": [
+                {
+                    "cause": "Network partition (control plane)",
+                    "confidence": 61,
+                    "evidence": "Quorum lost, replication lag > 30s",
+                    "investigation_path": "Check network mesh, BGP status"
+                },
+                {
+                    "cause": "Control plane overload",
+                    "confidence": 24,
+                    "evidence": "High CPU on orchestration nodes",
+                    "investigation_path": "Scale control plane, check etcd health"
+                },
+                {
+                    "cause": "Downstream timeout amplification",
+                    "confidence": 15,
+                    "evidence": "Cascading failures in 3 dependent services",
+                    "investigation_path": "Implement circuit breakers"
+                }
+            ]
+        }
+    },
+    
+    "API Rate Limit Storm": {
+        "description": "Third-party API rate limiting causing cascading failures",
+        "severity": "MEDIUM",
+        "component": "external_api_gateway",
+        "metrics": {
+            "rate_limit_hits_percentage": 95,
+            "error_rate": 42.8,
+            "retry_storm": True,
+            "cascade_effect_services": 3,
+            "queue_backlog": 8500
+        },
+        "business_impact": {
+            "revenue_loss_per_hour": 3800,
+            "partner_sla_breach": True,
+            "data_sync_delay_hours": 4,
+            "customer_reports_delay_hours": 6
+        },
+        "roi_data": {
+            "hourly_revenue_loss": 3800,
+            "manual_recovery_hours": 1.25,
+            "enterprise_recovery_hours": 0.17,
+            "engineers_required": 3,
+            "engineer_hourly_rate": 150,
+            "estimated_monthly_occurrences": 4,
+            "enterprise_savings_percentage": 0.85
+        },
+        # ============ REALISM UPGRADES ============
+        "realism": {
+            "contract_aware_reasoning": {
+                "burst_limit": "1.2× allowed",
+                "penalty_window": "15 minutes",
+                "degradation_mode": "Non-premium users only",
+                "contractual_limits": {
+                    "requests_per_second": 100,
+                    "monthly_overage_fee": "$0.15/request",
+                    "suspension_threshold": "3 violations/month"
+                }
+            }
         }
     },
     
@@ -169,6 +319,16 @@ INCIDENT_SCENARIOS = {
             "engineer_hourly_rate": 150,
             "estimated_monthly_occurrences": 1.5,
             "enterprise_savings_percentage": 0.83
+        },
+        # ============ REALISM UPGRADES ============
+        "realism": {
+            "irreversibility_warnings": {
+                "rebalance_duration": "18-25 minutes",
+                "write_amplification_risk": "High",
+                "requires_explicit_approval": True,
+                "approval_level": "Director+",
+                "rollback_complexity": "High (requires snapshot restore)"
+            }
         }
     }
 }