README.md

metadata

title: ArbIntel
emoji: 📈
colorFrom: blue
colorTo: green
sdk: streamlit
sdk_version: 1.32.0
app_file: app.py
pinned: false

ArbIntel: Prediction Markets Alpha Engine

System Architecture & Documentation

1. Overview

ArbIntel is a real-time trading intelligence system designed for Polymarket and Kalshi. It features cross-platform arbitrage scanning, Bayesian fair-value probabilistic modeling, HMM regime detection, and an NLP sentiment pipeline for event-driven trading.

2. Core Modules

Data Ingestion (src/clients/ & src/ingestion.py)

• Async WebSocket and REST clients for Polymarket and Kalshi.
• Real-time normalization of order books to implied probabilities (0-1).
• TimescaleDB storage schema for tick-level data.

Arbitrage Engine (src/strategies/arbitrage.py)

• Cross-Platform Arbitrage: Identifies risk-free margins between Polymarket and Kalshi considering fee schedules.
• Intra-Market Parity: Detects structural pricing violations (e.g., YES + NO < 1.0).

Bayesian Fair Value (src/models/bayesian.py)

• Evaluates real-time market action against a Beta-distribution belief system.
• Adjusts expected probability (Fair Value) based on trade volume and decays older beliefs.

NLP Sentiment Pipeline (src/models/nlp.py)

• Hugging Face ProsusAI/finbert integration.
• Scores incoming news and social feeds for bullish/bearish confidence to feed momentum strategies.

HMM Regime Detection (src/models/hmm.py)

• 2-state Gaussian Hidden Markov Model.
• Utilizes log-returns, volume spikes, and bid-ask spreads to classify "Stable" vs "Volatile" market conditions for dynamic position sizing.

Backtesting & Execution (src/backtest/engine.py & src/execution.py)

• Event-driven Pandas backtester calculating Sharpe, Max DD, and Win Rates accounting for basis-point slippage.
• Paper Trading engine enforcing risk limits (maximum capital deployed, daily loss limits).

Blockchain Integration (src/blockchain.py)

• Polygon RPC listener monitoring USDC (0x2791Bca...) transfers into the Polymarket Exchange Contract.
• Generates "Whale Alerts" for transaction sizes exceeding expected retail limits.

Alerts (src/alerts.py)

• Discord & Slack webhook integration for instant arbitrage notification.

3. Running the Dashboard

The Streamlit dashboard allows manual overriding and live viewing of the CrossPlatformArbitrage scanner. Deployable directly to Hugging Face Spaces.

streamlit run app.py