MPTrading / default_scenario.json
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{
"name": "5Y Historic-Inspired + Post-2025 News Cycle",
"startDay": 0,
"basePrice": 100.0,
"defaultVolatility": 0.85,
"marketLength": 2000,
"events": [
{
"day": 0,
"shockPct": -1.2,
"news": "Quarterly risk reset: profit-taking after run-up."
},
{
"day": 7,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 14,
"shockPct": -2.5,
"news": "Banking stress headlines revive 2008-style fears; liquidity backstops hinted.",
"volatility": 1.4
},
{
"day": 21,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 28,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 35,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 42,
"shockPct": 3.0,
"news": "Coordinated central-bank statement calms markets; funding spreads tighten.",
"volatility": 1.1
},
{
"day": 49,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 56,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 63,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 70,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 0.95
},
{
"day": 77,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 84,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 91,
"shockPct": -3.5,
"news": "Geopolitical escalation triggers energy spike; shipping insurance costs jump.",
"volatility": 1.8
},
{
"day": 98,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 105,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 112,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 119,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 126,
"shockPct": 2.8,
"news": "Emergency energy releases + diplomatic corridor reduce tail risks.",
"volatility": 1.2
},
{
"day": 133,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 140,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 1.05
},
{
"day": 147,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 154,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 161,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 168,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 175,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 182,
"shockPct": 2.0,
"news": "Disinflation print surprises; first rate-cut timing pulled forward.",
"volatility": 1.0
},
{
"day": 189,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 196,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 203,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 210,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 1.15
},
{
"day": 217,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 224,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 231,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 238,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 245,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 252,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 259,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 266,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 273,
"shockPct": -2.2,
"news": "Major cloud outage + cyber incident hits megacaps; risk models reprice.",
"volatility": 1.5
},
{
"day": 280,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 0.85
},
{
"day": 287,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 294,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 301,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 308,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 315,
"shockPct": 0.3,
"news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 322,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 329,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 336,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 343,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 350,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 0.95
},
{
"day": 357,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 364,
"shockPct": -4.0,
"news": "Election-year policy uncertainty: tariff threats and fiscal standoff.",
"volatility": 2.1
},
{
"day": 371,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 378,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 385,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 392,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 399,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 406,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 413,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 420,
"shockPct": 3.5,
"news": "Post-election clarity: budget deal + investment incentives fuel relief rally.",
"volatility": 1.3
},
{
"day": 427,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 434,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 441,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 448,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 455,
"shockPct": 1.4,
"news": "Quarterly rebound: earnings breadth improves; dip-buyers return."
},
{
"day": 462,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 469,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 476,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 483,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 490,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 1.15
},
{
"day": 497,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 504,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 511,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 518,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 525,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 532,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 539,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 546,
"shockPct": -2.8,
"news": "Credit event in private markets; refinancing wall sparks risk-off week.",
"volatility": 1.7
},
{
"day": 553,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 560,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 0.85
},
{
"day": 567,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 574,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 581,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 588,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 595,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 602,
"shockPct": 2.4,
"news": "Orderly restructuring + backstop facility reduces contagion fears.",
"volatility": 1.2
},
{
"day": 609,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 616,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 623,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 630,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 0.95
},
{
"day": 637,
"shockPct": 1.4,
"news": "Quarterly rebound: earnings breadth improves; dip-buyers return."
},
{
"day": 644,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 651,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 658,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 665,
"shockPct": 0.3,
"news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 672,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 679,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 686,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 693,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 700,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 1.05
},
{
"day": 707,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 714,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 721,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 728,
"shockPct": 2.2,
"news": "Productivity wave narrative: AI capex cycle accelerates; earnings revisions up.",
"volatility": 1.1
},
{
"day": 735,
"shockPct": 0.3,
"news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 742,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 749,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 756,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 763,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 770,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 1.15
},
{
"day": 777,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 784,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 791,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 798,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 805,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 812,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 819,
"shockPct": -3.2,
"news": "AI overbuild concerns echo dot-com; guidance cuts hit high-multiple names.",
"volatility": 1.9
},
{
"day": 826,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 833,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 840,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 0.85
},
{
"day": 847,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 854,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 861,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 868,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 875,
"shockPct": 0.3,
"news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 882,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 889,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 896,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 903,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 910,
"shockPct": 2.6,
"news": "Breakthrough efficiency claims validated; capex shifts from hype to ROI.",
"volatility": 1.2
},
{
"day": 917,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 924,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 931,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 938,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 945,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 952,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 959,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 966,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 973,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 980,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 1.05
},
{
"day": 987,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 994,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1001,
"shockPct": 1.4,
"news": "Quarterly rebound: earnings breadth improves; dip-buyers return."
},
{
"day": 1008,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1015,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1022,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1029,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1036,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1043,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1050,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 1.15
},
{
"day": 1057,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1064,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1071,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1078,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1085,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1092,
"shockPct": -2.6,
"news": "Unexpected inflation rebound; central bank signals 'higher for longer'.",
"volatility": 1.8
},
{
"day": 1099,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1106,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1113,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1120,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 0.85
},
{
"day": 1127,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1134,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1141,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1148,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1155,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1162,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1169,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1176,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1183,
"shockPct": 2.3,
"news": "Inflation cools again; soft-landing confidence returns.",
"volatility": 1.2
},
{
"day": 1190,
"shockPct": 0.3,
"news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 0.95
},
{
"day": 1197,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1204,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1211,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1218,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1225,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1232,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1239,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1246,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1253,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1260,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 1.05
},
{
"day": 1267,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1274,
"shockPct": -2.9,
"news": "Emerging-market FX shock triggers forced de-risking; correlations spike.",
"volatility": 1.8
},
{
"day": 1281,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1288,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1295,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1302,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1309,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1316,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1323,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1330,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 1.15
},
{
"day": 1337,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1344,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1351,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1358,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1365,
"shockPct": 2.1,
"news": "IMF-style stabilization package announced; carry trade rebuild begins.",
"volatility": 1.3
},
{
"day": 1372,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1379,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1386,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1393,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1400,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 0.85
},
{
"day": 1407,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1414,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1421,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1428,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1435,
"shockPct": 0.3,
"news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1442,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1449,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1456,
"shockPct": -2.4,
"news": "Climate event disrupts supply chains; insurers reprice catastrophe risk.",
"volatility": 1.6
},
{
"day": 1463,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1470,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 0.95
},
{
"day": 1477,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1484,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1491,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1498,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1505,
"shockPct": 0.3,
"news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1512,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1519,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1526,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1533,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1540,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 1.05
},
{
"day": 1547,
"shockPct": 2.0,
"news": "Supply normalization + rebuilding spend support cyclicals.",
"volatility": 1.2
},
{
"day": 1554,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1561,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1568,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1575,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1582,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1589,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1596,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1603,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1610,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 1.15
},
{
"day": 1617,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1624,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1631,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1638,
"shockPct": -2.7,
"news": "Antitrust wave targets platform fees; headline risk rises.",
"volatility": 1.7
},
{
"day": 1645,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1652,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1659,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1666,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1673,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1680,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
"volatility": 0.85
},
{
"day": 1687,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1694,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1701,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1708,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1715,
"shockPct": -0.3,
"news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1722,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1729,
"shockPct": 2.2,
"news": "Settlement framework reduces uncertainty; buybacks resume.",
"volatility": 1.2
},
{
"day": 1736,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1743,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1750,
"shockPct": -0.2,
"news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
"volatility": 0.95
},
{
"day": 1757,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1764,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1771,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1778,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1785,
"shockPct": 0.2,
"news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
},
{
"day": 1792,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
},
{
"day": 1799,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
},
{
"day": 1806,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
},
{
"day": 1813,
"shockPct": 0.0,
"news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
}
]
}