Spaces:
Running
Running
| title: FinText-TSFM | |
| emoji: 📈 | |
| colorFrom: gray | |
| colorTo: blue | |
| sdk: static | |
| pinned: false | |
| # FinText-TSFM 📈 | |
| <div style="text-align: center; padding: 20px;"> | |
| <h1 style="font-size: 2em; font-weight: bold;">Time Series Foundation Models for Finance</h1> | |
| </div> | |
| <div style="padding: 12px; border-radius: 10px; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);"> | |
| ## 🚀 TSFMs Release | |
| We are pleased to introduce **FinText-TSFM**, a comprehensive suite of **time series foundation models (TSFMs)** developed for financial forecasting and quantitative research. This release accompanies the paper : | |
| **[*Re(Visiting) Time Series Foundation Models in Finance*](https://ssrn.com/abstract=4963618)** by *Eghbal Rahimikia, Hao Ni, and Weiguan Wang (2025)*. | |
| ### 💡 Key Highlights | |
| - **Finance-Native Pre-training:** | |
| Models are pre-trained **from scratch** on large-scale financial time series datasets — including daily excess returns across **89 markets** and **over 2 billion observations** — to ensure full temporal and domain alignment. | |
| - **Bias-Free Design:** | |
| Training strictly follows a **chronological expanding-window setup**, avoiding any **look-ahead bias** or **information leakage**. | |
| - **Model Families:** | |
| This release includes variants of **Chronos** and **TimesFM** architectures adapted for financial time series: | |
| - Chronos-Tiny / Mini / Small | |
| - TimesFM-8M / 20M | |
| - **Performance Insights:** | |
| Our findings show that **off-the-shelf TSFMs** underperform in zero-shot forecasting, while **finance-pretrained models** achieve large gains in both predictive accuracy and portfolio Sharpe ratios. | |
| - **Evaluation Scope:** | |
| Models are benchmarked across **U.S. and international markets**, using rolling windows (5, 21, 252, 512 days) and **18M+ out-of-sample forecasts**. | |
| ### 🧠 Technical Overview | |
| - **Architecture:** Transformer-based TSFMs (Chronos & TimesFM) | |
| - **Training Regime:** Pre-training from scratch, fine-tuning, and zero-shot evaluation | |
| - **Compute:** >50,000 GPU hours on NVIDIA GH200 Grace Hopper clusters | |
| ### 📚 Citation | |
| Please cite the accompanying paper if you use these models: | |
| > **Re(Visiting) Time Series Foundation Models in Finance.** | |
| > **Rahimikia, Eghbal; Ni, Hao; Wang, Weiguan.** | |
| > SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=4963618](https://ssrn.com/abstract=4963618) | |
| > DOI: [10.2139/ssrn.4963618](http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4963618) | |
| ### 🔋 Acknowledgments | |
| This project was made possible through computational and institutional support from: | |
| - **Isambard-AI National AI Research Resource (AIRR)** | |
| - **The University of Manchester** (Research IT & Computational Shared Facility) | |
| - **Alliance Manchester Business School (AMBS), University of Manchester** | |
| - **University College London (UCL)** | |
| - **Shanghai University** | |
| - **N8 Centre of Excellence in Computationally Intensive Research (N8 CIR)** | |
| - **The Alan Turing Institute** | |
| --- | |
| <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center; justify-content: center; margin-top: 10px; text-align: center; line-height: 1.25;"> | |
| <p style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.1em; margin: 0;">Developed by:</p> | |
| <!-- Main horizontal layout: left = developed by, right = powered by --> | |
| <div style="display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; gap: 50px; flex-wrap: wrap; margin: 4px 0 6px 0;"> | |
| <!-- Left side: developed by logos --> | |
| <div style="display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; gap: 25px; flex-wrap: wrap;"> | |
| <img src="https://fintext.ai/UoM-logo.svg" alt="University of Manchester Logo" style="width: 210px; height: auto; margin: 0;"> | |
| <img src="https://fintext.ai/UCL-logo.jpg" alt="UCL Logo" style="width: 100px; height: auto; margin: 0;"> | |
| </div> | |
| <!-- Right side: powered by BriCS --> | |
| <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center; justify-content: center;"> | |
| <p style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 1em; margin: 0 0 4px 0;">Powered by:</p> | |
| <img src="https://fintext.ai/BriCS-logo.svg" alt="BriCS Logo" style="width: 150px; height: auto; margin-bottom: 2px;"> | |
| <p style="font-size: 0.8em; margin: 0;">Bristol Supercomputing</p> | |
| </div> | |
| </div> | |
| <p style="font-size: 0.8em; margin-top: 4px;"> | |
| Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester<br> | |
| Department of Mathematics, University College London | |
| </p> | |
| </div> | |