README.md

metadata

title: Neural Prophet Stock Predictor
emoji: 🔮
colorFrom: indigo
colorTo: blue
sdk: gradio
sdk_version: 5.29.1
app_file: app.py
python_version: '3.10'
pinned: false

NeuralProphet Stock Predictor 📈

Project Goal

This project uses NeuralProphet, a PyTorch-based hybrid forecasting framework (inspired by Facebook Prophet and Neural Networks), to predict the 90-day forward price for any valid stock ticker found on Yahoo Finance.

Unlike simple linear regressions, this model accounts for time-series specific components such as:

• Trend Changes: Detecting shifts in the stock's growth trajectory.
• Seasonality: analyzing Yearly and Weekly patterns (e.g., does the stock typically rise in January?).

How to Use

Using the UI

1. Enter a valid Ticker Symbol in the textbox (e.g., AAPL for Apple, AZN.L for AstraZeneca UK).
2. Click "Analyze Stock".
3. Wait approximately 10-30 seconds for the model to train on-the-fly.
4. View the ROI Verdict, the Forecast Chart, and the Seasonality breakdown.

Interpretation

• Blue Line (Forecast): The predicted price path.
• Yearly Seasonality: Shows which months are historically bullish or bearish for this specific asset.
• Verdict:
  • 🟢 STRONG BUY: ROI > 10%
  • 🟢 BUY: ROI > 2%
  • 🟡 HOLD: ROI > -5%
  • 🔴 SELL: ROI <= -5%

Model Methodology

This application trains a fresh model every time you request a ticker. It does not use pre-trained weights because stock data changes daily.

1. Data Fetching: Downloads 3 years of daily historical data via yfinance.
2. Preprocessing: Cleans data and handles timezone formatting.
3. Training: Fits a NeuralProphet model with:
   • Yearly Seasonality: Enabled
   • Weekly Seasonality: Enabled
   • Daily Seasonality: Disabled (Noise reduction)
   • Learning Rate: 0.01
4. Forecasting: Projects 90 days into the future.

Tech Stack

• NeuralProphet: For time-series forecasting.
• YFinance: For live market data.
• Gradio: For the web interface.
• Plotly: For interactive charting.

Disclaimer: Stock market predictions are inherently uncertain. Do not trade based solely on these results.