source_intel/THREAT_MODEL.md

🎯 Citizen Intelligence Agency — Threat Model

🛡️ Proactive Security Through Structured Threat Analysis
🔍 STRIDE • MITRE ATT&CK • CIA System Architecture • Public Transparency

📋 Document Owner: CEO | 📄 Version: 1.0 | 📅 Last Updated: 2025-09-18 (UTC)
🔄 Review Cycle: Annual | ⏰ Next Review: 2026-09-18
🏷️ Classification: Public (Open Civic Transparency Platform)

---

🎯 Purpose & Scope

Establish a comprehensive threat model for the Citizen Intelligence Agency (CIA) civic transparency platform (Swedish parliamentary/open data OSINT). This systematic threat analysis integrates multiple threat modeling frameworks to ensure proactive security through structured analysis.

🌟 Transparency Commitment

This threat model demonstrates 🛡️ cybersecurity consulting expertise through public documentation of advanced threat assessment methodologies, showcasing our 🏆 competitive advantage via systematic risk management and 🤝 customer trust through transparent security practices.

— Based on Hack23 AB's commitment to security through transparency and excellence

📚 Framework Integration

• 🎭 STRIDE per architecture element: Systematic threat categorization
• 🎖️ MITRE ATT&CK mapping: Advanced threat intelligence integration
• 🏗️ Asset-centric analysis: Critical resource protection focus
• 🎯 Scenario-centric modeling: Real-world attack simulation
• ⚖️ Risk-centric assessment: Business impact quantification

🔍 Scope Definition

Included Systems:

• 🌐 Web application (Vaadin/Spring framework)
• 🔄 Data ingestion/import services
• 💾 PostgreSQL persistence + analytical views
• 🔐 Authentication / session / audit subsystems
• ☁️ AWS infrastructure (WAF, ALB, EC2, RDS, KMS, GuardDuty, Security Hub)

Out of Scope:

• Third-party downstream consumers of published open dashboards (read-only usage)
• External data source security (Parliament API, Election Authority, World Bank)

🔗 Policy Alignment

Integrated with 🎯 Hack23 AB Threat Modeling Policy methodology and frameworks.

---

📊 System Classification & Operating Profile

🏷️ Security Classification Matrix

Dimension	Level	Rationale	Business Impact
🔐 Confidentiality		Parliamentary, governmental, or open economic sources
🔒 Integrity		Analytical credibility & ranking accuracy critical
⚡ Availability		Public civic transparency; tolerates brief maintenance

⚖️ Regulatory & Compliance Profile

Compliance Area	Classification	Implementation Status
📋 Regulatory Exposure	Low	Mostly open data; minimal personal data (user accounts only)
🇪🇺 CRA (EU Cyber Resilience Act)	Low baseline	Non–safety-critical civic analytics; maintains secure development controls
📊 SLA Targets (Internal)	99.5%	Single-region + resilience roadmap
🔄 RPO / RTO	RPO ≤ 24h / RTO ≤ 4h	Acceptable for civic analytics with daily refresh cadence

---

💎 Critical Assets & Protection Goals

🏗️ Asset-Centric Threat Analysis

Following Hack23 AB Asset-Centric Threat Modeling methodology:

Asset Category	Why Valuable	Threat Goals	Key Controls	Business Value
📊 Analytical Integrity	Public trust in political metrics	Tampering, covert manipulation	DB RBAC, immutable audit (Javers), CSP, WAF
🧠 Source Code	Policy logic, ranking algorithms	IP theft, malicious injection	Private repo controls, dependency scanning, SLSA provenance
🔄 Import Pipelines	Freshness & correctness	Poisoned input, replay, API abuse	Input validation, schema checks, rate limiting
👤 User Accounts	Abuse vector	Credential stuffing, enumeration	Login throttling, password policy, MFA optional path
🔑 Admin Role	Elevated capability	Privilege escalation	Method-level @Secured, restricted session generation
☁️ Infrastructure Config	Security baseline	Supply chain/manipulation	Template versioning, provenance attestations

🔐 Crown Jewel Analysis

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flowchart TB
    subgraph CROWN_JEWELS["💎 Crown Jewels"]
        ANALYTICAL[📊 Analytical Integrity<br/>Political Rankings & Metrics]
        SOURCE[🧠 Source Code<br/>Algorithms & Business Logic]
        DATA[🗄️ Political Data<br/>Parliament & Election Records]
    end
    
    subgraph ATTACK_VECTORS["⚔️ Primary Attack Vectors"]
        DATA_POISON[💉 Data Poisoning]
        CODE_INJECT[💻 Code Injection]
        PRIVILEGE_ESC[⬆️ Privilege Escalation]
        SUPPLY_CHAIN[🔗 Supply Chain Attack]
    end
    
    subgraph THREAT_AGENTS["👥 Key Threat Agents"]
        NATION_STATE[🏛️ Nation-State Actors<br/>Political Interference]
        CYBER_CRIME[💰 Cybercriminals<br/>Data Monetization]
        HACKTIVISTS[🎭 Hacktivists<br/>Political Agenda]
        INSIDER[👤 Malicious Insider<br/>Privileged Access]
    end
    
    DATA_POISON --> ANALYTICAL
    CODE_INJECT --> SOURCE
    PRIVILEGE_ESC --> DATA
    SUPPLY_CHAIN --> SOURCE
    
    NATION_STATE --> DATA_POISON
    CYBER_CRIME --> CODE_INJECT
    HACKTIVISTS --> PRIVILEGE_ESC
    INSIDER --> SUPPLY_CHAIN
    
    style ANALYTICAL fill:#ffcdd2,stroke:#d32f2f,color:#000
    style SOURCE fill:#ffcdd2,stroke:#d32f2f,color:#000
    style DATA fill:#ffcdd2,stroke:#d32f2f,color:#000

---

🌐 Data Flow & Architecture Analysis

🏛️ Architecture-Centric STRIDE Analysis

Following Architecture-Centric Threat Modeling methodology:

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flowchart TB
    subgraph TRUST_BOUNDARY_1["🌐 Internet/DMZ Trust Boundary"]
        EXT[(🌍 Public Open Data Sources)]
        USER[👤 Public/Registered Users]
    end
    
    subgraph TRUST_BOUNDARY_2["🛡️ AWS Security Boundary"]
        WAF[🛡️ AWS WAF]
        ALB[⚖️ Application Load Balancer]
    end
    
    subgraph TRUST_BOUNDARY_3["🔒 Application Trust Boundary"]
        IMPORT[🔄 Import Services]
        VALID[✅ Schema + Validation]
        APP[🌐 Spring/Vaadin App]
        AUTH[🔐 Security Module]
    end
    
    subgraph TRUST_BOUNDARY_4["🗄️ Data Trust Boundary"]
        DB[(💾 PostgreSQL Core + Views)]
        SESS[🔑 Session Store/Audit]
        LOGS[(📋 Audit & Metrics)]
    end
    
    subgraph TRUST_BOUNDARY_5["☁️ AWS Security Services"]
        GUARDDUTY[🔍 GuardDuty]
        SECURITYHUB[🛡️ Security Hub]
        KMS[🔐 AWS KMS]
    end
    
    EXT -->|🎯 T1: API Abuse| IMPORT
    USER -->|🎯 T2: Web Attacks| WAF
    WAF -->|🎯 T3: WAF Bypass| ALB
    ALB -->|🎯 T4: Load Balancer Exploit| APP
    IMPORT -->|🎯 T5: Data Poisoning| VALID
    VALID -->|🎯 T6: Validation Bypass| DB
    APP -->|🎯 T7: Application Exploit| AUTH
    AUTH -->|🎯 T8: Auth Bypass| SESS
    APP -->|🎯 T9: Log Injection| LOGS
    
    GUARDDUTY -.->|Monitors| ALB
    SECURITYHUB -.->|Aggregates| LOGS
    KMS -.->|Encrypts| DB
    
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🎭 STRIDE per Element Analysis

Element	S	T	R	I	D	E	Notable Mitigations
🌐 Web Entry (WAF/ALB)	IP spoof	Header tamper	Limited	TLS downgrade	L7 flood	—	WAF managed rules, TLS policy
🖥️ Vaadin UI	Session hijack	DOM/script injection (XSS)	Action denial	Leakage via mis-render	Render lock	View bypass	CSP, HSTS, security headers
⚙️ Service Layer	Impersonation	Parameter tampering	Log forging	Data mapping leak	Thread starvation	Priv esc via service call	Method @Secured, input canonicalization
🔄 Import Jobs	Source spoof	Payload corruption	Replay abuse	Poisoned dataset	Batch backlog	Elevated connector perms	Source signature checks, schema validation
💾 Database	Connection spoof	Row/column mod	Transaction denial	Full dump	Connection exhaustion	Role escalation	Least-privilege roles, network isolation
🔑 Session/Audit	Token substitution	Log injection	Non-repudiation risk	PII over-log	Log flooding	Log privilege misuse	Structured logging, size limits
🔧 Build/CI	Actor spoof (PR)	Artifact tamper	Tamper denial	Secret exposure	Runner exhaustion	Escalated workflow perms	Hardening, pin actions, attestations
🔐 Secrets Manager	API misuse	Secret overwrite	Retrieval repudiation	Broad read	API flood	Policy bypass	IAM SCP, rotation, minimal scope

---

🎖️ MITRE ATT&CK Framework Integration

🔍 Attacker-Centric Analysis

Following MITRE ATT&CK-Driven Analysis methodology:

Phase	Technique	ID	CIA Context	Control	Detection
🔍 Initial Access	Exploit Public-Facing App	T1190	Web endpoints, API services	WAF, patch cadence, input validation	WAF logs, application monitoring
🔍 Initial Access	Phishing for Credentials	T1566	Admin/user login targeting	Password policy, lockouts, awareness	Failed login monitoring, email security
⚡ Execution	Command/Script Interpreter	T1059	Limited server scripts	Hardened AMI, no interactive shells	Process monitoring, endpoint detection
🔄 Persistence	Valid Accounts	T1078	Compromised user accounts	Login attempt throttling, MFA	Account monitoring, behavioral analysis
⬆️ Priv Esc	Exploit for Priv Esc	T1068	JVM/OS vulnerabilities	Patch mgmt, Inspector scanning	Vulnerability scanning, system monitoring
🎭 Defense Evasion	Obfuscated Files	T1027	Malicious libraries	SCA + SBOM diff, code review	Static analysis, artifact scanning
🔑 Credential Access	Brute Force	T1110	Login form attacks	Throttling, IP/session caps	Login attempt monitoring, rate limiting
🔍 Discovery	Application Enumeration	T1083	Public endpoint scanning	Rate limits, minimal error detail	Access pattern analysis, traffic monitoring
📤 Exfiltration	Exfil Over HTTPS	T1041	Bulk data export via APIs	Query limits, audit logging	Data volume monitoring, unusual access patterns
💥 Impact	Data Manipulation	T1565	Rankings/doc count tampering	Integrity validation jobs, checksums	Data integrity monitoring, change detection

📊 ATT&CK Coverage Analysis

Comprehensive Coverage Tracking: This threat model provides systematic coverage analysis of MITRE ATT&CK techniques, identifying which tactics and techniques are relevant to the CIA platform's threat landscape.

🎯 Coverage Heat Map by Tactic

Tactic	Covered Techniques	Total Techniques	Coverage %	Status
🔍 Initial Access	4	22	18.2%
💥 Impact	5	33	15.2%
📤 Exfiltration	1	19	5.3%
⬆️ Privilege Escalation	4	111	3.6%
⚡ Execution	1	51	2.0%
🔍 Discovery	1	49	2.0%
🔄 Persistence	2	130	1.5%
🔑 Credential Access	1	67	1.5%
🎭 Defense Evasion	2	218	0.9%
🔀 Lateral Movement	0	25	0.0%
📦 Collection	0	41	0.0%
📡 Command and Control	0	47	0.0%

Coverage Rationale: The CIA platform's 2.4% overall coverage reflects focused threat modeling for a civic transparency application with limited attack surface. Higher coverage in Initial Access (18.2%) and Impact (15.2%) aligns with primary threat vectors for public-facing platforms and data integrity concerns.

🛡️ Security Control to ATT&CK Mitigation Mapping

Comprehensive security controls are mapped to specific ATT&CK mitigations and techniques:

Security Control	ATT&CK Mitigation	Techniques Mitigated	Implementation Status
AWS WAF	M1050: Exploit Protection	T1190
Multi-Factor Authentication	M1032: Multi-factor Authentication	T1078, T1110
AWS CloudTrail	M1047: Audit	T1098
VPC Security Groups	M1030: Network Segmentation	T1041
Spring Security	M1035: Limit Access	T1068, T1078
AWS GuardDuty	M1047: Audit	T1190, T1078
Input Validation	M1021: Restrict Web Content	T1190, T1059, T1565
AWS KMS Encryption	M1041: Encrypt Sensitive Information	T1041

🗺️ ATT&CK Navigator Visualization

The MITRE ATT&CK Navigator provides interactive visualization of threat coverage. The CIA platform's coverage can be explored using the official ATT&CK Navigator tool.

Navigator Benefits:

• ✅ Visual heat map of covered techniques across all tactics
• ✅ Technique-by-technique coverage details
• ✅ Control mapping and mitigation strategies
• ✅ Priority assessment for threat coverage expansion

📈 Coverage Enhancement Strategy

Current Focus: Initial Access and Impact tactics (highest risk for civic transparency)

Expansion Priorities:

1. High Priority: Expand Discovery and Collection coverage (data protection)
2. Medium Priority: Enhance Defense Evasion techniques (detection capabilities)
3. Low Priority: C2 and Lateral Movement (limited internal network)

Not Applicable: Lateral Movement, C2, and Collection tactics have 0% coverage as CIA platform architecture (single-tier web application with isolated database) minimizes these attack vectors.

🔗 Related Resources

• 📚 MITRE ATT&CK Enterprise Matrix
• 🗺️ ATT&CK Navigator Tool
• 📋 CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities
• 🎯 Hack23 Threat Modeling Policy

🌳 Attack Tree Analysis

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flowchart TD
    GOAL[🎯 Compromise CIA Platform<br/>Political Data Integrity]
    
    GOAL --> PATH1[🚪 External Web Attack]
    GOAL --> PATH2[🔒 Internal Access Abuse]
    GOAL --> PATH3[🔗 Supply Chain Compromise]
    GOAL --> PATH4[☁️ Infrastructure Attack]
    
    PATH1 --> EXT1[🌐 Web Application Exploit]
    PATH1 --> EXT2[🔌 API Abuse]
    PATH1 --> EXT3[📧 Social Engineering]
    
    EXT1 --> EXT1A[🔍 XSS/CSRF Attack]
    EXT1 --> EXT1B[💉 SQL Injection]
    EXT1A --> EXT1A1[🎯 Session Hijacking]
    EXT1B --> EXT1B1[🗄️ Database Compromise]
    
    PATH2 --> INT1[👤 Privileged User Abuse]
    PATH2 --> INT2[🔑 Credential Theft]
    INT1 --> INT1A[📊 Data Manipulation]
    INT2 --> INT2A[⬆️ Privilege Escalation]
    
    PATH3 --> SUP1[📦 Dependency Poisoning]
    PATH3 --> SUP2[🔧 Build Tool Compromise]
    SUP1 --> SUP1A[🦠 Malicious Code Injection]
    SUP2 --> SUP2A[🏗️ Build Process Tampering]
    
    PATH4 --> INF1[☁️ AWS Service Compromise]
    PATH4 --> INF2[🔐 Key Management Attack]
    INF1 --> INF1A[🗄️ RDS Direct Access]
    INF2 --> INF2A[🔓 Encryption Bypass]
    
    style GOAL fill:#d32f2f,color:#fff
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    style PATH2 fill:#ff9800,color:#fff
    style PATH3 fill:#ffc107,color:#000
    style PATH4 fill:#9c27b0,color:#fff

---

🎯 Priority Threat Scenarios

🔴 Critical Threat Scenarios

Following Risk-Centric Threat Modeling methodology:

#	Scenario	MITRE Tactic	Impact Focus	Likelihood	Risk	Key Mitigations	Residual Action
1	🌐 Web Application Compromise	Initial Access	Data integrity manipulation	Medium		WAF, validation, ORM parameterization	Add periodic data hash verification
2	🔗 Supply Chain Dependency Attack	Initial Access	Code integrity & confidentiality	Medium		SBOM, pin SHAs, attestations	Add provenance verification policy gate
3	🔑 Administrative Credential Compromise	Credential Access	System-wide access	Low-Med		Lockouts, strong policy, IP rate limiting	Enforce mandatory MFA for admin
4	🗄️ Database Exfiltration	Exfiltration	Political data confidentiality	Low		Network isolation, least privilege	Implement query anomaly detection
5	🔄 Import Pipeline Data Poisoning	Impact	Analytical integrity	Medium		Schema validation, duplicate detection	Add source signature/etag validation
6	⚡ Distributed Denial of Service	Impact	Service availability	Medium		WAF rate limits, autoscaling planned	Load test + capacity model update

⚖️ Risk Heat Matrix

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quadrantChart
    title 🎯 CIA Platform Risk Heat Matrix
    x-axis Low Likelihood --> High Likelihood
    y-axis Low Impact --> High Impact
    quadrant-1 Monitor & Prepare
    quadrant-2 Immediate Action Required
    quadrant-3 Accept Risk
    quadrant-4 Mitigate & Control
    
    "🌐 Web App Compromise": [0.6, 0.9]
    "🔗 Supply Chain Attack": [0.5, 0.95]
    "🔑 Admin Credential Theft": [0.4, 0.8]
    "🗄️ DB Exfiltration": [0.3, 0.75]
    "🔄 Data Poisoning": [0.6, 0.6]
    "⚡ DDoS Attack": [0.7, 0.5]
    "🎭 Social Engineering": [0.5, 0.4]
    "💾 Backup Theft": [0.2, 0.7]
    "🔍 Information Disclosure": [0.4, 0.3]
    "🚨 Insider Threat": [0.25, 0.85]

---

🛡️ Comprehensive Security Control Framework

🔒 Defense-in-Depth Architecture

Aligned with Security Architecture implementation:

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flowchart TB
    subgraph PERIMETER["🌐 Perimeter Security"]
        DNS[🌍 Route 53 DNS Security]
        WAF[🛡️ AWS WAF Protection]
        DDOS[⚡ AWS Shield DDoS]
    end
    
    subgraph NETWORK["🔒 Network Security"]
        VPC[🏛️ VPC Isolation]
        NACL[🚪 Network ACLs]
        SG[🛡️ Security Groups]
        TLS[🔐 TLS Encryption]
    end
    
    subgraph APPLICATION["📱 Application Security"]
        AUTH[🔑 Spring Security]
        RBAC[👥 Role-Based Access]
        INPUT[✅ Input Validation]
        HEADERS[📋 Security Headers]
    end
    
    subgraph DATA["🗄️ Data Security"]
        ENCRYPT[🔐 Encryption at Rest]
        TRANSIT[🔒 Encryption in Transit]
        BACKUP[💾 Secure Backups]
        AUDIT[📋 Audit Logging]
    end
    
    subgraph MONITORING["📊 Security Monitoring"]
        GUARDDUTY[🔍 GuardDuty]
        SECURITYHUB[🛡️ Security Hub]
        CLOUDWATCH[📈 CloudWatch]
        INSPECTOR[🔍 Inspector]
    end
    
    DNS --> WAF
    WAF --> VPC
    VPC --> AUTH
    AUTH --> ENCRYPT
    
    DDOS -.-> WAF
    NACL -.-> SG
    RBAC -.-> INPUT
    TRANSIT -.-> AUDIT
    
    GUARDDUTY -.-> SECURITYHUB
    CLOUDWATCH -.-> INSPECTOR
    
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🎭 STRIDE → Control Mapping

STRIDE Category	Example Threat	Primary Control	Secondary Control	Monitoring
🎭 Spoofing	Credential stuffing	Throttling + password policy	MFA (admin), account lockout	Failed login attempts, IP tracking
🔧 Tampering	SQL/logic manipulation	Parameterized queries, ORM	WAF rules, input validation	Database activity monitoring
❌ Repudiation	Action denial	Immutable audit logs (Javers)	Correlated session IDs	Comprehensive audit trail
📤 Information Disclosure	Data exfiltration	Network isolation, encryption	Row-level access control	Unusual query pattern detection
⚡ Denial of Service	Request flood	WAF rate limiting	Auto-scaling, resource sizing	Traffic pattern analysis
⬆️ Elevation of Privilege	Privilege escalation	Method @Secured annotations	Separate admin role tokens	Privilege usage monitoring

---

🔄 Continuous Validation & Assessment

🎪 Threat Modeling Workshop Process

Following Hack23 AB Workshop Framework:

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flowchart LR
    PRE[📋 Pre-Workshop Prep] --> ENUM[🎯 Asset & Trust Boundary Enumeration]
    ENUM --> THREATS[🔍 Threat Identification<br/>STRIDE + MITRE ATT&CK]
    THREATS --> MAP[⚖️ Risk & Scenario Mapping]
    MAP --> PLAN[🛡️ Mitigation & Control Plan]
    PLAN --> INTEG[🔧 Pipeline Integration]
    INTEG --> MON[📊 Monitoring & Metrics]
    MON --> REVIEW[🔄 Annual / Event Review]
    REVIEW --> THREATS

📅 Assessment Lifecycle

Assessment Type	Trigger	Frequency	Scope	Documentation Update
📅 Comprehensive Review	Annual cycle	Annual	Complete threat model	Full document revision
🔄 Delta Assessment	Architecture changes	Per change	Modified components	Incremental updates
🚨 Incident-Driven	Security events	As needed	Affected systems	Lessons learned integration
🎯 Threat Intelligence	New attack patterns	Quarterly	High-risk scenarios	MITRE ATT&CK updates

---

📊 Comprehensive Threat Agent Analysis

🔍 Detailed Threat Actor Classification

Following Hack23 AB Threat Agent Classification methodology:

Threat Agent	Category	CIA-Specific Context	MITRE Techniques	Risk Level	Political Motivation
🏛️ Nation-State Actors	External	Political interference, election influence	Spearphishing, Data Manipulation		High - targeting political transparency
🎭 Hacktivists	External	Political agenda promotion, transparency manipulation	Defacement, DDoS		High - political platform targeting
💰 Cybercriminals	External	Data monetization, political manipulation for hire	Phishing, Ransomware		Medium - financial motivation
🔒 Accidental Insiders	Internal	Unintentional data corruption, misconfigurations	Data Deletion, Misconfiguration		Low - no political intent
🎯 Malicious Insiders	Internal	Political bias injection, data manipulation	Data Manipulation, Account Manipulation		High - political influence
🤝 Third-Party Providers	External	Indirect access through service dependencies	Supply Chain Compromise, Valid Accounts		Variable - depends on provider

---

🌐 Current Threat Landscape Integration

📊 ENISA Threat Landscape 2024 Application

Implementing ENISA Threat Landscape 2024 specific to CIA platform:

ENISA Priority	Threat Category	CIA Platform Context	Specific Scenarios	Mitigation Strategy
1️⃣	⚡ Availability Threats	DoS against civic transparency services	Political period attacks, election interference	WAF + DDoS protection
2️⃣	🔐 Ransomware	Parliamentary data encryption	Critical voting period disruption	Immutable backups + isolation
3️⃣	📊 Data Threats	Political data manipulation/theft	Ranking algorithm tampering, voter influence	Integrity validation + audit
4️⃣	🦠 Malware	System infiltration for data access	Persistent political espionage	Endpoint protection + monitoring
5️⃣	🎭 Social Engineering	Admin credential theft for access	Targeted phishing against civic platform staff	Security awareness + MFA
6️⃣	📰 Information Manipulation	False political data injection	Disinformation campaigns via platform	Source validation + verification
7️⃣	🔗 Supply Chain	Dependency compromise for backdoor access	Third-party library infiltration	SBOM + provenance verification

---

🎯 Multi-Strategy Threat Modeling Implementation

🔍 Complete Framework Integration

Following Hack23 AB Comprehensive Threat Modeling Strategies:

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mindmap
  root)🎯 CIA Threat Modeling Strategies(
    (🎖️ Attacker-Centric)
      🔍 MITRE ATT&CK Civic Context
      🌳 Political Attack Trees
      🎭 Nation-State Perspective
      📊 Election Interference Chains
      🔗 Democratic Process Graphs
    (🏗️ Asset-Centric)
      💻 Parliamentary Data Assets
      🏷️ Political Information Flows
      📋 Democratic Process Protection
      🔐 Civic Transparency Jewels
      💎 Electoral Integrity Targets
    (🏛️ Architecture-Centric)
      🎭 STRIDE per Political Component
      🔄 Civic Data Flow Diagrams
      🏗️ Democratic System Decomposition
      🌐 Government Trust Boundaries
      📊 Political Analysis Components
    (🎯 Scenario-Centric)
      📝 Democratic Process Abuse
      🚨 Election Interference Cases
      👤 Political Actor Threats
      🎲 What-If Political Scenarios
      📖 Civic Engagement Stories
    (⚖️ Risk-Centric)
      📊 Democratic Impact Analysis
      🎯 Political Threat Intelligence
      📈 Election Period Probability
      💰 Civic Trust Impact Focus
      🔍 Political Vulnerability Correlation

---

🎯 Scenario-Centric Threat Modeling

📝 Democratic Process Abuse Analysis

Following Hack23 AB Scenario-Centric Modeling:

🚨 Political Misuse Cases

Legitimate Democratic Use Case	Political Misuse Case	Attack Method	Democratic Impact	Civic Mitigation
🗳️ Election Result Analysis	📊 Vote Manipulation Perception	False data injection, statistic skewing	Public trust erosion in democracy	Source verification, data provenance tracking
👥 Politician Performance Tracking	🎯 Character Assassination	Selective data presentation, bias injection	Political career damage, voter manipulation	Balanced metrics, transparent methodology
🏛️ Parliamentary Process Monitoring	📰 Legislative Process Interference	Timeline manipulation, procedure misrepresentation	Democratic process confusion	Real-time validation, audit trails
💰 Government Spending Transparency	💸 Financial Scandal Manufacturing	Misleading financial correlation, context removal	Government legitimacy questioning	Context preservation, expert validation
📈 Political Trend Visualization	🔮 Election Outcome Manipulation	Predictive model bias, trend fabrication	Voter behavior influence, election interference	Statistical validation, methodology transparency

👤 Political Persona-Based Threat Analysis

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    'theme': 'base',
    'themeVariables': {
      'primaryColor': '#f3e5f5',
      'primaryTextColor': '#6a1b9a',
      'lineColor': '#9c27b0',
      'secondaryColor': '#e8f5e9',
      'tertiaryColor': '#fff3e0'
    }
  }
}%%
flowchart TD
    subgraph PERSONAS["👥 Political Threat Personas"]
        FOREIGN_STATE[🏛️ Foreign State Actor<br/>High Resources, Strategic Patience]
        DOMESTIC_EXTREMIST[🎭 Domestic Extremist<br/>High Motivation, Targeted Attacks]
        POLITICAL_OPERATIVE[🎯 Political Operative<br/>Medium Resources, Election Timing]
        CORPORATE_INFLUENCER[💼 Corporate Influencer<br/>Financial Resources, Policy Focus]
    end
    
    subgraph METHODS["⚔️ Political Attack Methods"]
        DISINFORMATION[📰 Disinformation Campaigns]
        DATA_MANIPULATION[📊 Data Manipulation]
        TIMING_ATTACKS[⏰ Strategic Timing Attacks]
        PERCEPTION_WARFARE[🧠 Perception Warfare]
    end
    
    subgraph TARGETS["🎯 Democratic Targets"]
        ELECTION_INTEGRITY[🗳️ Election Integrity]
        POLITICAL_TRUST[🤝 Political Trust]
        DEMOCRATIC_PROCESS[🏛️ Democratic Process]
        CIVIC_ENGAGEMENT[👥 Civic Engagement]
    end
    
    FOREIGN_STATE --> DISINFORMATION
    FOREIGN_STATE --> ELECTION_INTEGRITY
    
    DOMESTIC_EXTREMIST --> DATA_MANIPULATION
    DOMESTIC_EXTREMIST --> POLITICAL_TRUST
    
    POLITICAL_OPERATIVE --> TIMING_ATTACKS
    POLITICAL_OPERATIVE --> DEMOCRATIC_PROCESS
    
    CORPORATE_INFLUENCER --> PERCEPTION_WARFARE
    CORPORATE_INFLUENCER --> CIVIC_ENGAGEMENT
    
    style FOREIGN_STATE fill:#ffcdd2
    style DOMESTIC_EXTREMIST fill:#fff3e0
    style POLITICAL_OPERATIVE fill:#e8f5e9
    style CORPORATE_INFLUENCER fill:#e3f2fd

🎲 Political What-If Scenario Planning

🔍 Scenario 1: Pre-Election Platform Compromise

• What if: The CIA platform is compromised 30 days before a major election?
• Attack Path: Initial Access → Data Manipulation → Public Misinformation → Election Influence
• Democratic Impact: Voter confusion, election legitimacy questions, democratic trust erosion
• Detection: Real-time data integrity monitoring, anomaly detection, public verification systems
• Response: Emergency transparency protocols, independent verification, rapid correction procedures

🔍 Scenario 2: Parliamentary Crisis Information Warfare

• What if: During a government crisis, the platform becomes a disinformation vector?
• Attack Path: Social Engineering → Insider Access → Content Manipulation → Media Amplification
• Democratic Impact: Political instability amplification, public disorder, institutional damage
• Detection: Editorial workflow monitoring, multi-source verification, expert validation panels
• Response: Crisis communication protocols, expert fact-checking, transparent correction processes

🔍 Scenario 3: Long-term Democratic Erosion Campaign

• What if: A sustained, subtle campaign gradually erodes trust in democratic institutions?
• Attack Path: Persistent Access → Gradual Bias Introduction → Normalized Distortion → Trust Degradation
• Democratic Impact: Slow democratic norm erosion, reduced civic participation, institutional weakening
• Detection: Long-term trend analysis, bias detection algorithms, public trust metrics
• Response: Regular methodology audits, transparent bias correction, public engagement initiatives

---

⚖️ Enhanced Risk-Centric Analysis

📊 Political Impact Quantification

Following Risk-Centric Threat Modeling:

🏛️ Democratic Impact Assessment Matrix

Threat Scenario	Probability	Democratic Impact	Public Trust Impact	Electoral Impact	Civic Risk Score
🗳️ Election Period Data Manipulation	25%				9.5/10
🏛️ Parliamentary Process Interference	20%				7.8/10
👥 Politician Reputation Attacks	30%				8.2/10
💰 Government Spending Manipulation	15%				5.9/10
📊 Statistical Methodology Attacks	10%				7.1/10

📈 Political Threat Intelligence Integration

Intelligence Source	Update Frequency	Democratic Relevance	Integration Method	CIA Platform Application
🏛️ Election Authority Alerts	Real-time	10/10	Direct API integration	Election period threat escalation
📰 Media Monitoring	Hourly	8/10	Content analysis integration	Misinformation pattern detection
🌐 Social Media Threat Feeds	Real-time	9/10	API aggregation	Coordinated attack detection
🔍 Parliamentary Security Bulletins	Daily	7/10	Manual review integration	Government target awareness
🎯 Political Cyber Threat Intelligence	Weekly	9/10	Threat modeling updates	Political actor capability assessment

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🎪 Advanced Threat Modeling Workshop Framework

📋 Political Platform-Specific Preparation

Following Hack23 AB Workshop Framework with civic transparency adaptations:

🎯 CIA-Specific Workshop Scope

• 🏛️ Democratic Process Mapping: Parliamentary procedures, election cycles, government transparency requirements
• 📊 Political Data Sensitivity: Ranking methodologies, bias detection, source verification
• 🗳️ Electoral Period Considerations: High-risk timeframes, attack surface expansion, emergency procedures
• 👥 Civic Stakeholder Impact: Citizens, politicians, media, researchers, government bodies

👥 Political Platform Team Assembly

• 🏛️ Civic Technology Expert: Democratic process digitization, transparency platform expertise
• 📊 Political Data Scientist: Bias detection, statistical validation, methodology transparency
• 🛡️ Democracy Security Specialist: Election security, political threat landscape, civic platform protection
• 📰 Media Relations Coordinator: Public communication, misinformation response, transparency communication
• ⚖️ Legal/Compliance Officer: Election law compliance, data protection, transparency regulations

📊 Political Context Analysis Framework

🏛️ Democratic Process Security Assessment:

• How might different political actors attempt to manipulate the platform?
• What are the critical democratic periods requiring enhanced security?
• How do we maintain neutrality while protecting against political manipulation?
• What transparency measures prevent and detect bias injection?

🗳️ Electoral Integrity Evaluation:

• How could the platform influence electoral outcomes inappropriately?
• What safeguards prevent pre-election manipulation campaigns?
• How do we ensure equal treatment across political parties and candidates?
• What emergency procedures exist for election period incidents?

📊 Political Data Protection Analysis:

• How do we prevent selective or biased data presentation?
• What validation ensures ranking methodology integrity?
• How do we protect against gradual algorithmic bias introduction?
• What transparency measures allow public verification of fairness?

---

📊 Political Threat Catalog Framework

🏛️ Democracy-Specific Threat Documentation

Each political threat entry includes democratic impact assessment per Threat Catalog Framework:

🔴 Critical Democratic Threats

🗳️ Election Period Information Manipulation

• 🎯 Political Tactic: Electoral Interference via Information Manipulation
• 🔧 MITRE Technique: Data Manipulation (T1565)
• 🏛️ Democratic Component: Electoral process transparency and integrity
• 📝 Threat Description: Coordinated manipulation of political data during critical election periods to influence voter behavior
• 👥 Threat Agent: Nation-state actors, domestic political operatives, foreign election interference groups
• 🔐 CIA at Risk: Integrity (democratic process), Availability (public access), Confidentiality (premature results)
• 🔑 AAA Controls: Authentication for data modification, Authorization for critical period access, Accounting for all changes
• 🎭 STRIDE Attribute: Tampering, Information Disclosure, Repudiation
• 🛡️ Security Measures: Multi-source validation, immutable audit trails, real-time integrity monitoring, emergency response protocols
• ⚡ Priority: Critical
• 🏛️ Democratic Impact: Direct election integrity threat, voter manipulation, democratic legitimacy undermining
• ❓ Assessment Questions: Are election period protections sufficient? Can real-time manipulation be detected? Are emergency response procedures tested?

🏛️ Parliamentary Data Corruption for Policy Influence

• 🎯 Political Tactic: Legislative Process Manipulation
• 🔧 MITRE Technique: Supply Chain Compromise (T1195)
• 🏛️ Democratic Component: Parliamentary transparency and legislative tracking
• 📝 Threat Description: Long-term infiltration to gradually corrupt parliamentary data and influence policy perception
• 👥 Threat Agent: Corporate influence groups, foreign policy interference, special interest organizations
• 🔐 CIA at Risk: Integrity (legislative records), Confidentiality (sensitive political information)
• 🔑 AAA Controls: Authentication for data source access, Authorization for parliamentary data modification, Accounting for all legislative record changes
• 🎭 STRIDE Attribute: Tampering, Spoofing, Elevation of Privilege
• 🛡️ Security Measures: Source verification protocols, parliamentary API security, data provenance tracking, expert validation panels
• ⚡ Priority: Critical
• 🏛️ Democratic Impact: Policy manipulation, legislative process corruption, public policy misunderstanding
• ❓ Assessment Questions: Are parliamentary data sources verified? Can gradual corruption be detected? Are policy experts involved in validation?

---

🔄 Continuous Democratic Validation

📅 Political Context Assessment Lifecycle

Assessment Type	Political Trigger	Frequency	Democratic Scope	Public Transparency
🗳️ Election Period Assessment	Election announcement	Per election cycle	Complete platform security posture	Enhanced transparency reporting
🏛️ Parliamentary Session Assessment	Parliamentary term start/major crisis	Per session/as needed	Legislative tracking systems	Public methodology reviews
👥 Political Actor Assessment	New government formation	Per government change	Stakeholder access and bias detection	Stakeholder engagement reports
📊 Methodology Assessment	Algorithm/ranking changes	Per significant change	Data processing and presentation	Public methodology documentation
🌐 Democratic Landscape Assessment	Major democratic events globally	Quarterly	Threat landscape and best practices	International cooperation reports

🏛️ Democratic Validation Pipeline Integration

Democratic Control Layer	Public Evidence	Transparency Enforcement	Democratic Threat Coverage
🔍 Political Bias Detection	Public methodology documentation	Open algorithm explanations	Gradual bias injection, partisan manipulation
📊 Source Verification	Public source listings + verification status	Open data provenance	Information manipulation, false data injection
🏛️ Democratic Process Validation	Public parliamentary procedure mapping	Open process documentation	Legislative process manipulation
🗳️ Election Period Protection	Public security posture reporting	Open threat response documentation	Election interference, voter manipulation
👥 Stakeholder Balance Verification	Public engagement reports	Open stakeholder consultation logs	Partisan capture, interest group manipulation
📈 Democratic Impact Assessment	Public impact evaluations	Open democratic health metrics	Democratic erosion, civic disengagement

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🎯 Democratic Threat Modeling Maturity

📈 Civic Platform Maturity Framework

Following Hack23 AB Maturity Levels with democratic adaptations:

🟢 Level 1: Democratic Foundation

• 🏛️ Basic Democratic Architecture: Core civic transparency documentation with basic bias detection
• 🗳️ Election Period Awareness: Basic election security protocols and enhanced monitoring
• 👥 Stakeholder Identification: Key democratic actors mapped with influence assessment
• 📊 Transparency Baseline: Public methodology documentation and basic verification
• 🛡️ Democratic Security Controls: Basic protections against political manipulation

🟡 Level 2: Democratic Process Integration

• 📅 Electoral Cycle Integration: Threat assessment aligned with democratic calendar
• 📝 Political Context Documentation: Enhanced threat models including political scenarios
• 🔧 Democratic Tool Integration: Bias detection tools and democratic validation systems
• 🔄 Civic Engagement Tracking: Public participation in threat identification and validation

🟠 Level 3: Democratic Analysis Excellence

• 🔍 Comprehensive Political STRIDE: Systematic threat categorization for all democratic processes
• ⚖️ Democratic Risk Assessment: Political impact, civic trust, and electoral integrity criteria
• 🛡️ Political Mitigation Strategies: Comprehensive controls for democratic threats
• 🎓 Civic Security Education: Public education on democratic platform security

🔴 Level 4: Advanced Democratic Intelligence

• 🌐 Advanced Political Modeling: Real-world political attack simulations and democratic war gaming
• 📊 Continuous Democratic Monitoring: Real-time political threat landscape integration
• 📈 Democratic Health Metrics: Comprehensive civic engagement and trust measurement
• 🔄 Public Validation Sessions: Community-driven threat identification and mitigation validation

🟣 Level 5: Democratic Innovation Leadership

• 🔮 Proactive Democratic Protection: Emerging political threat anticipation and countermeasures
• 🤖 AI-Enhanced Democratic Security: Machine learning for bias detection and political manipulation identification
• 📊 Global Democratic Intelligence: International democratic security collaboration and best practice sharing
• 🔬 Predictive Democratic Analytics: Advanced modeling for democratic health and threat prediction

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🌟 Democratic Security Best Practices

🏛️ Civic Platform Security Principles

🗳️ Electoral Integrity by Design

• 🔍 Transparent Methodology: All ranking and analysis methodologies publicly documented and verifiable
• ⚖️ Political Neutrality Enforcement: Systematic bias detection and correction mechanisms
• 📊 Multi-Source Validation: Cross-verification of political data from multiple independent sources
• 🛡️ Election Period Protection: Enhanced security during critical democratic periods

👥 Democratic Participation Security

• 🤝 Stakeholder Engagement: Regular consultation with democratic actors on security concerns
• 📢 Public Validation: Community-driven verification of platform neutrality and accuracy
• 🔍 Open Source Transparency: Public access to security methodologies and threat assessments
• 📈 Civic Trust Measurement: Regular assessment of public confidence in platform integrity

🔄 Continuous Democratic Improvement

• ⚡ Proactive Political Threat Detection: Early identification of emerging democratic manipulation techniques
• 📊 Evidence-Based Security: Data-driven democratic security decisions with public accountability
• 🤝 International Cooperation: Collaboration with global democratic transparency organizations
• 💡 Innovation in Democratic Security: Leading development of new civic platform protection methods

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📋 Document Control:
✅ Approved by: James Pether Sörling, CEO - Hack23 AB
📤 Distribution: Public
🏷️ Classification:
📅 Effective Date: 2025-09-18
⏰ Next Review: 2026-09-18
🎯 Framework Compliance: