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README.md
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# Lightning Rod Labs
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Define your criteria in Python, and our SDK treats real-world outcomes as the label, producing high-signal supervision at scale. Models learn causal factors, not just tokens. Raw data to deployable specialized models in hours.
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[Website](https://lightningrod.ai/) · [SDK](https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk) · [Blog](https://blog.lightningrod.ai/)
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---
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## Research & Results
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- **[SEC Risk Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.19189)**: Foresight learning on raw SEC filings trains a 32B model to outperform GPT-5 at predicting public company risks.
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- **[Foresight-32B vs. Frontier LLMs](https://blog.lightningrod.ai/p/foresight-32b-beats-frontier-llms-on-live-polymarket-predictions)**: Live demonstration beating frontier models on Polymarket predictions.
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Foresight-32B is consistently top-ranked on [ForecastBench](https://www.forecastbench.org/tournament/) and [ProphetArena Sports](https://www.prophetarena.co/leaderboard).
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# Lightning Rod Labs
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**Train with Timestamps, Not Labels.**
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Lightning Rod Labs automatically generates high-quality training data from your documents or public sources — no labeling or extraction required. Define your criteria in Python, and our SDK treats real-world outcomes as the label, producing high-signal supervision at scale. Models learn causal factors, not just tokens. Raw data to deployable specialized models in hours.
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[Website](https://lightningrod.ai/) · [SDK](https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk) · [Blog](https://blog.lightningrod.ai/)
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## How It Works
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We generate grounded, model-ready training data from documents or public sources (Google News, SEC filings, market data). You define your criteria in Python, and our SDK uses the **future as the label** — turning messy, timestamped history into training signal automatically. No labeling pipelines, no extraction, no human annotation.
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This approach has been used to beat frontier AIs 100x larger on prediction-market benchmarks, and has demonstrated success in financial forecasting, risk estimation, and policy prediction.
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---
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## Research & Results
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- **[SEC Risk Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.19189)**: Foresight learning on raw SEC filings trains a 32B model to outperform GPT-5 at predicting public company risks.
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- **[Foresight-32B vs. Frontier LLMs](https://blog.lightningrod.ai/p/foresight-32b-beats-frontier-llms-on-live-polymarket-predictions)**: Live demonstration beating frontier models on Polymarket predictions.
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Foresight-32B is consistently top-ranked on [ForecastBench](https://www.forecastbench.org/tournament/) and [ProphetArena Sports](https://www.prophetarena.co/leaderboard).
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---
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## Models & Datasets
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| Resource | Description |
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| [Trump-Forecaster](https://huggingface.co/LightningRodLabs/Trump-Forecaster) | RL-tuned gpt-oss-120b LoRA adapter for predicting Trump administration actions. Beats GPT-5 (Brier 0.194 vs 0.200). |
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| [Golf-Forecaster](https://huggingface.co/LightningRodLabs/Golf-Forecaster) | RL-tuned gpt-oss-120b LoRA adapter for predicting professional golf outcomes. Beats GPT-5.1 (Brier 0.207 vs 0.218). |
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| [WWTD-2025](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/WWTD-2025) | 2,790 binary forecasting questions about U.S. policy under the Trump administration, with news context and ground-truth resolutions. |
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| [GolfForecasting](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/GolfForecasting) | 4,033 binary forecasting questions about professional golf across PGA Tour, LIV Golf, LPGA, and majors. |
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