TiRex-2-demo / src /app.py
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from __future__ import annotations
import os
import yaml
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import streamlit as st
from pathlib import Path
import core
import plotting
from tirex2.demo import Demo
CKPT_PATH = os.environ.get("TIREX2_CKPT", "NX-AI/TiRex-2")
DEVICE = os.environ.get("TIREX2_DEVICE", "cpu")
st.set_page_config(page_title="TiRex-2 Forecasting", page_icon="🦖", layout="wide")
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- styling
with open("src/style.css") as fh:
style = fh.read()
st.markdown(
f"""
<style>
{style}
</style>
""",
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- model
@st.cache_resource(show_spinner=False)
def get_model(ckpt_path: str, device: str):
from tirex2 import load_model
return load_model(ckpt_path, device=device)
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
def cached_forecast(
values: np.ndarray,
names: tuple[str, ...],
horizon: int,
tta_diff,
tta_sign_flip,
_model,
context_len: int,
prediction_start: int,
cov_values: np.ndarray | None = None,
cov_names: tuple[str, ...] = (),
cov_mode: str = "future",
):
"""Cached wrapper around core.run_forecast (``_model`` is excluded from the cache key)."""
return core.run_forecast(
_model, values, list(names), horizon=horizon, multivariate=bool(cov_names),
context_len=context_len, tta_diff=tta_diff, tta_sign_flip=tta_sign_flip,
cov_values=cov_values, cov_names=list(cov_names), cov_mode=cov_mode,
prediction_start=prediction_start,
)
def logo_path(name: str) -> str | None:
p = os.path.join("static", name)
return p if os.path.exists(p) else None
def read_table(file_or_path, *, filename: str, first_row_header: bool = True) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Read a user-facing table with explicit header handling."""
ext = str(filename).split(".")[-1].lower()
header = 0 if first_row_header else None
if ext == "csv":
return pd.read_csv(file_or_path, header=header)
if ext in ("xls", "xlsx"):
return pd.read_excel(file_or_path, header=header)
if ext == "parquet":
return pd.read_parquet(file_or_path)
raise ValueError("Unsupported format. Use CSV, XLS, XLSX, or PARQUET.")
def infer_default_horizon(df: pd.DataFrame, time_column: str | None = None) -> int:
if not time_column or time_column not in df.columns:
return 64
parsed = pd.to_datetime(df[time_column], errors="coerce")
if parsed.isna().any() or len(parsed) < 2:
return 64
delta = parsed.diff().dropna().median()
if pd.isna(delta) or delta <= pd.Timedelta(0):
return 64
if delta <= pd.Timedelta(hours=1):
return 168
if delta <= pd.Timedelta(days=1):
return 30
if delta <= pd.Timedelta(days=8):
return 12
return 24
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
def dataset_catalog() -> dict[str, dict]:
info_path = Path("data") / "dataset_info.yaml"
if not info_path.exists():
return {}
with info_path.open("r", encoding="utf-8") as f:
raw = yaml.safe_load(f) or {}
catalog: dict[str, dict] = {}
for item in raw.get("datasets", []):
name = str(item["name"])
path = Path(item["path"])
if not path.is_absolute():
path = info_path.parent / path
meta = dict(item)
meta["path"] = str(path)
try:
preview = read_table(meta["path"], filename=meta["path"], first_row_header=True)
meta["horizon"] = int(meta.get("horizon") or infer_default_horizon(preview, meta.get("time_column")))
except Exception:
meta["horizon"] = int(meta.get("horizon") or 64)
catalog[name] = meta
return catalog
def plot_x_values(time_values, *, start: int, length: int) -> np.ndarray | pd.DatetimeIndex:
if time_values is None:
return np.arange(start, start + length)
parsed = pd.to_datetime(pd.Series(time_values), errors="coerce")
if parsed.isna().any() or len(parsed) < 2:
return np.arange(start, start + length)
freq = pd.infer_freq(parsed) if len(parsed) >= 3 else None
if freq is not None:
full = pd.date_range(parsed.iloc[0], periods=start + length, freq=freq)
else:
deltas = parsed.diff().dropna()
step = deltas.median()
if pd.isna(step) or step <= pd.Timedelta(0):
return np.arange(start, start + length)
full = pd.DatetimeIndex([parsed.iloc[0] + i * step for i in range(start + length)])
return full[start:start + length]
def demo_examples() -> dict[str, Demo]:
return {
"Demo: Holiday Calendar": Demo.create_holidays_demo(),
"Demo: Non-stationary Drivers": Demo.create_nonstationary_demo(),
}
def demo_to_series_table(demo: Demo) -> tuple[core.SeriesTable, list[str]]:
names = ["target"]
values = [np.concatenate([demo.target_context, demo.target_future]).astype(np.float32)]
cov_names: list[str] = []
for i, cov in enumerate(demo.covariates, start=1):
cov_name = cov.label.split(" (")[0].strip().lower().replace(" ", "_").replace("-", "_")
cov_name = cov_name or f"covariate_{i}"
names.append(cov_name)
cov_names.append(cov_name)
future = cov.future if cov.future is not None else np.full(demo.horizon, np.nan, dtype=np.float32)
values.append(np.concatenate([cov.context, future]).astype(np.float32))
return core.SeriesTable(names=names, values=np.asarray(values, dtype=np.float32)), cov_names
def render_forecast(
*, result, baseline, target_name, prediction_length,
all_cov_names, cov_mode, use_cov, plot_x, plot_context_len, **_,
) -> None:
"""Render a stored forecast bundle: metrics, comparison plot, and CSV download."""
with st.container(border=True):
median_index = result.median_idx()
mae = baseline_mae = improvement = None
plot_ground_truth = None
if result.truth is not None:
truth_len = len(result.truth[0])
plot_ground_truth = result.truth[0]
mae = float(np.abs(result.quantiles[0, median_index, :truth_len] - result.truth[0]).mean())
if baseline is not None and baseline.truth is not None:
b_idx = baseline.median_idx()
baseline_mae = float(np.abs(baseline.quantiles[0, b_idx, :truth_len] - result.truth[0]).mean())
improvement = 100 * (baseline_mae - mae) / (baseline_mae + 1e-9)
if baseline_mae is not None:
helped = improvement >= 0
row1 = st.columns(3)
row1[0].metric(
"Error (MAE) univariate", f"{baseline_mae:.3g}",
help="**Mean Absolute Error** of the univariate (target-only) forecast "
"against the held-out actuals the average size of the miss, in the "
"target's own units. **Lower is better.** This is the baseline the "
"covariates are compared against.",
)
row1[1].metric(
"Error (MAE) multivariate", f"{mae:.3g}",
delta=f"{mae - baseline_mae:+.3g}", delta_color="inverse",
help="Forecast error once the covariates inform the model, against the same "
"actuals. **Lower is better.** The delta is the change from the "
"univariate baseline a green ↓ means the covariates shrank the error.",
)
row1[2].metric(
"Error reduction", f"{improvement:+.1f}%",
delta="covariates helped" if helped else "covariates hurt",
delta_color="green" if helped else "red",
delta_arrow="up" if helped else "down",
help="How much the covariates cut the error relative to the univariate "
"baseline: 100 × (MAE·univariate − MAE·multivariate) / MAE·univariate. "
"**Higher is better** — positive (green) means covariates reduced the "
"error, negative (red) means they made it worse.",
)
st.columns([1, 2])[0].metric(
"Inference", f"{(result.inference_s + baseline.inference_s) * 1000:.0f} ms",
help="Total wall-clock time for both forecasts (univariate + multivariate). "
"**Lower is faster.**",
)
else:
cols = st.columns(2 if mae is not None else 1)
cols[0].metric(
"Inference", f"{result.inference_s * 1000:.0f} ms",
help="Wall-clock time to compute this forecast. **Lower is faster.**",
)
if mae is not None:
cols[1].metric(
"MAE vs actual", f"{mae:.3g}",
help="**Mean Absolute Error** of the forecast median against the held-out "
"actuals — the average size of the miss, in the target's own units "
"(shown when the forecast starts before the end of the data). "
"**Lower is better.**",
)
if use_cov:
mode_txt = ("future-known through the forecast horizon"
if cov_mode == "future" else "past (history only)")
st.caption(f"Covariates: {', '.join(all_cov_names)} · {mode_txt}")
# With covariates: two stacked, directly comparable target panels (univariate baseline
# vs. covariate-informed) plus one panel per covariate. Otherwise a single target panel.
# Zoom the view to where the forecast begins by showing at most ~3x the horizon of
# context (the tirex2 default), capped at the actual context so we never index past it.
# No context is cut from the plot data; only the visible x-range is narrowed.
zoom_context = min(plot_context_len, 3 * prediction_length)
fig, n_plot_rows = plotting.build_forecast_figure(
result, baseline, plot_x,
max_context_to_show=zoom_context, ground_truth=plot_ground_truth,
)
plotting.style_forecast_figure(fig, n_plot_rows)
st.plotly_chart(fig, width="stretch", config={"displaylogo": False})
# Download median forecasts (plus actuals when a holdout was used).
future_x = np.asarray(plot_x[plot_context_len:plot_context_len + prediction_length])
out = {"time_index": future_x, f"{target_name} (median)": result.quantiles[0, median_index]}
if result.truth is not None:
actual = np.full(prediction_length, np.nan, dtype=np.float32)
actual[: len(result.truth[0])] = result.truth[0]
out[f"{target_name} (actual)"] = actual
st.download_button("⬇ Download median forecasts (CSV)",
pd.DataFrame(out).to_csv(index=False).encode(),
file_name="tirex2_forecast.csv", mime="text/csv")
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- header
st.markdown('<h1 class="tx-hero-title">🦖 TiRex-2 Forecasting</h1>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
st.markdown(
'<p class="tx-sub">Zero-shot time-series forecasting univariate and multivariate '
"powered by the xLSTM-based TiRex-2.</p>",
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
st.markdown(
'<span class="tx-pill">zero-shot</span>'
'<span class="tx-pill">multivariate</span>'
'<span class="tx-pill">covariates</span>'
'<span class="tx-pill">quantile forecasts</span>',
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
st.space(size="small")
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- sidebar
with st.sidebar:
if logo_path("nxai_logo.png"):
st.image(logo_path("nxai_logo.png"), width="stretch")
st.markdown("### Model")
status = st.empty()
try:
with st.spinner("Loading TiRex-2..."):
model = get_model(CKPT_PATH, DEVICE)
ctx_len = int(getattr(model, "context_len", core.DEFAULT_CONTEXT_LEN))
fut_len = int(getattr(model, "future_len", core.DEFAULT_FUTURE_LEN))
n_q = len(model.quantiles)
status.success(f"TiRex-2 ready · {DEVICE.upper()}")
st.caption(f"checkpoint: `{CKPT_PATH}` \ncontext ≤ {ctx_len} · horizon ≤ {fut_len} · {n_q} quantiles")
except Exception as exc: # pragma: no cover - surfaced in UI
model = None
ctx_len, fut_len = core.DEFAULT_CONTEXT_LEN, core.DEFAULT_FUTURE_LEN
status.error("Model failed to load")
st.exception(exc)
st.info(
"Set `TIREX2_CKPT` to a directory containing `model-config.yaml` and "
"`model.ckpt`, or to a Hugging Face repo id you can access."
)
with st.expander("Advanced inference", expanded=False):
st.caption("Test time augmentation. Leave on *checkpoint default* unless experimenting.")
tta_diff_choice = st.selectbox("tta_diff (differencing)", ["checkpoint default", "on", "off"], index=0)
tta_flip_choice = st.selectbox("tta_sign_flip", ["checkpoint default", "on", "off"], index=0)
tta_diff = {"checkpoint default": None, "on": True, "off": False}[tta_diff_choice]
tta_flip = {"checkpoint default": None, "on": True, "off": False}[tta_flip_choice]
if model is None:
st.stop()
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- tabs
tab_forecast, tab_guide = st.tabs(["📈 Forecast", "ℹ️ Guide"])
# =========================================================================== FORECAST
with tab_forecast:
cfg, view = st.columns([0.34, 0.66], gap="large")
with cfg:
with st.container(border=True):
df = None
default_horizon = 64
data_label = ""
table = None
target_name = None
default_target_name = None
default_cov_names: list[str] = []
time_values = None
time_column = ""
default_time_column = ""
first_row_header = True
seasonal_pattern_labels: list[str] = []
holiday_country = core.DEFAULT_HOLIDAY_COUNTRY
with st.expander("Data", expanded=True):
source = st.radio("Source", ["Example dataset", "Upload file"], horizontal=True, label_visibility="collapsed")
if source == "Example dataset":
demos = demo_examples()
catalog = dataset_catalog()
example_names = list(demos) + list(catalog)
preset_name = st.selectbox("Example dataset", example_names)
data_label = preset_name
if preset_name in demos:
demo = demos[preset_name]
table, default_cov_names = demo_to_series_table(demo)
default_target_name = "target"
default_horizon = demo.horizon
st.caption(demo.description)
else:
preset = catalog[preset_name]
default_horizon = preset["horizon"]
try:
df = read_table(preset["path"], filename=preset["path"], first_row_header=True)
default_time_column = str(preset.get("time_column") or "")
default_target_name = str(preset.get("data_column") or "")
desc = preset.get("description")
if desc:
st.caption(desc)
except Exception as exc:
st.error(f"Could not read preset: {exc}")
else:
with st.form("upload_form", border=False):
up = st.file_uploader("CSV / XLSX / Parquet", type=["csv", "xls", "xlsx", "parquet"])
first_row_header = st.checkbox(
"First row contains column names",
value=True,
help="Turn this off when your uploaded file starts immediately with numeric data.",
)
loaded = st.form_submit_button("Load dataset", width="stretch")
if loaded:
if up is None:
st.warning("Choose a file before loading.")
else:
try:
st.session_state["uploaded_df"] = read_table(
up, filename=up.name, first_row_header=first_row_header
)
st.session_state["uploaded_label"] = up.name
except Exception as exc:
st.session_state.pop("uploaded_df", None)
st.error(f"Could not read file: {exc}")
df = st.session_state.get("uploaded_df")
data_label = st.session_state.get("uploaded_label", "")
if df is None:
st.caption("One series per column. Press **Load dataset** after choosing a file.")
# Unified time-column selection for both example CSVs and uploads.
if df is not None:
options = [""] + list(df.columns)
time_column = st.selectbox(
"Time column (optional)",
options,
index=options.index(default_time_column) if default_time_column in options else 0,
format_func=lambda x: "Use step index" if x == "" else str(x),
help=(
"A date/time column is dropped from the forecastable series and shown as "
"real dates on the time axis. Leave blank to index by step."
),
)
if time_column:
time_values = df[time_column].copy()
time_df = df.drop(columns=[time_column])
if source == "Upload file":
default_horizon = infer_default_horizon(df, time_column)
else:
time_df = df
try:
table = core.to_series_table(time_df)
except Exception as exc:
st.error(f"Could not parse table: {exc}")
cov_names: list[str] = []
cov_mode = "future"
with st.expander("Series", expanded=False):
if table is not None:
if table.length > ctx_len:
st.caption(f"Long series - only the last {ctx_len} steps are used as context.")
# Scope widget state to the current dataset. Without a dataset-specific key,
# Streamlit reuses one widget identity across datasets: the multiselect keeps
# a stale selection (dropping names absent from the new dataset) and ignores
# `default=`, so covariates vanish - then reappear when switching source
# recreates the widget. A per-dataset key makes selection deterministic.
ds_key = data_label or "none"
target_name = st.selectbox(
"Target series",
table.names,
index=table.names.index(default_target_name) if default_target_name in table.names else 0,
help="The single series TiRex-2 should forecast.",
key=f"target_series::{ds_key}",
)
# Optional covariates: any series not chosen as the forecast target.
cov_choices = [n for n in table.names if n != target_name]
if cov_choices:
# Key on the dataset only - NOT on target_name. A key that embeds another
# widget's live value (target_name) makes this multiselect's identity depend
# on the target selectbox's value within the same rerun; on a dataset switch
# both widgets are recreated at once and Streamlit needs an extra rerun to
# settle, so the covariate picker fails to paint until the widgets are torn
# down (e.g. by toggling the data source). A stable per-dataset key renders
# deterministically; `cov_choices` already excludes the current target, and
# Streamlit drops any stored selection no longer in the options.
cov_names = st.multiselect(
"Data covariates (optional)", cov_choices,
default=[n for n in default_cov_names if n in cov_choices],
help="Known driver series used to inform the forecast (not forecast themselves).",
key=f"data_covariates::{ds_key}",
)
# --- Generated seasonal / holiday covariates (temporarily disabled) -----
# Dropped for now; kept commented so the calendar-covariate path can be
# restored later. `seasonal_pattern_labels` stays [] and `holiday_country`
# keeps its default, so the run block below produces no seasonal covariates.
# seasonal_options = list(core.SEASONAL_PATTERNS)
# if time_values is not None:
# seasonal_options += [core.WEEKEND_PATTERN, core.HOLIDAY_PATTERN]
# seasonal_pattern_labels = st.multiselect(
# "Generated seasonal covariates",
# seasonal_options,
# help=(
# "Adds future-known calendar signals (sin/cos per cycle). Cycles use step "
# "numbers unless a time column is set; weekend and holiday flags require one."
# ),
# )
#
# if core.HOLIDAY_PATTERN in seasonal_pattern_labels:
# countries = core.supported_holiday_countries()
# default_idx = countries.index(core.DEFAULT_HOLIDAY_COUNTRY) if core.DEFAULT_HOLIDAY_COUNTRY in countries else 0
# holiday_country = st.selectbox("Holiday calendar (country)", countries, index=default_idx)
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------
if cov_names or seasonal_pattern_labels:
cov_mode = {
"Known through the forecast horizon": "future",
"History only (past)": "past",
}[st.radio(
"Covariate values are...",
["Known through the forecast horizon", "History only (past)"],
help="Future-known uses covariate values from the context window through "
"the chosen horizon. Past-only conditions on covariate history only.",
)]
else:
st.caption("Pick a dataset first to choose series.")
with st.expander("Forecast", expanded=False):
prediction_length = st.slider("Horizon (steps ahead)", 1, fut_len, min(default_horizon, fut_len),
help="How many future steps to predict.")
if table is not None:
default_start = table.length - prediction_length if table.length > prediction_length else table.length
prediction_start = st.slider(
"Forecast starts at time index",
min_value=1,
max_value=table.length,
value=max(1, default_start),
help=(
"The model observes data before this index. Pick an earlier index to backtest "
"against ground truth, or the last index to forecast from the data end."
),
)
available_truth = max(0, min(prediction_length, table.length - prediction_start))
if available_truth:
st.caption(f"{available_truth} ground-truth step(s) available for comparison.")
else:
st.caption("Forecast starts at the end of the available target data.")
else:
prediction_start = 1
st.write("")
auto_run = st.toggle(
"Run automatically",
value=False,
help="Re-run the forecast on every change. Disables the manual button below.",
)
run = st.button("▶ Run forecast", type="primary", width="stretch", disabled=auto_run)
with view:
if table is None:
st.info("Choose an example dataset or upload a file on the left to begin.")
elif target_name is None:
st.warning("Select a target series to forecast.")
else:
# Compute a forecast ONLY on an explicit run (button) or when auto-run is on.
# Otherwise re-render the last stored result, so changing a setting does not
# silently trigger a new forecast.
if run or auto_run:
target_idx = table.names.index(target_name)
sel_names = [target_name]
sel_values = table.values[[target_idx]]
required_cov_len = max(
table.length,
prediction_start + prediction_length if cov_mode == "future" else prediction_start,
)
# --- Generated seasonal / holiday covariates (temporarily disabled) -----
# try:
# seasonal_cov_names, seasonal_cov_values = core.seasonal_covariates(
# seasonal_pattern_labels, required_cov_len, time_values=time_values,
# country=holiday_country,
# )
# except Exception as exc:
# st.error(f"Could not generate seasonal covariates: {exc}")
# st.stop()
# all_cov_names = [*cov_names, *seasonal_cov_names]
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------
all_cov_names = list(cov_names)
use_cov = bool(all_cov_names)
cov_parts = []
if cov_names:
if cov_mode == "future" and table.length < prediction_start + prediction_length:
st.error(
"Selected data covariates do not extend through the forecast horizon. "
"Choose an earlier forecast start, or switch covariates to history-only."
)
st.stop()
cov_idx = [table.names.index(n) for n in cov_names]
cov_parts.append(table.values[cov_idx])
# Generated seasonal covariates temporarily disabled (see above).
# if len(seasonal_cov_values):
# cov_parts.append(seasonal_cov_values)
cov_values = np.vstack(cov_parts).astype(np.float32) if cov_parts else None
try:
with st.spinner("Forecasting with TiRex-2..."):
result = cached_forecast(
sel_values, tuple(sel_names), prediction_length,
tta_diff, tta_flip, model, ctx_len, prediction_start,
cov_values, tuple(all_cov_names), cov_mode,
)
baseline_result = None
if use_cov:
baseline_result = cached_forecast(
sel_values, tuple(sel_names), prediction_length,
tta_diff, tta_flip, model, ctx_len, prediction_start,
None, (), "future",
)
except Exception as exc:
st.error(f"Forecast failed: {exc}")
st.stop()
plot_context_len = result.timeseries.past_length
plot_future_len = max(
result.quantiles.shape[-1],
len(result.truth[0]) if result.truth is not None else 0,
result.timeseries.future_length,
)
plot_x_start = (
result.prediction_start - plot_context_len
if result.prediction_start is not None else 0
)
plot_x = plot_x_values(
time_values, start=plot_x_start,
length=plot_context_len + plot_future_len,
)
st.session_state["forecast"] = dict(
signature=(data_label, target_name),
result=result, baseline=baseline_result, target_name=target_name,
prediction_length=prediction_length, all_cov_names=all_cov_names,
cov_mode=cov_mode, use_cov=use_cov, plot_x=plot_x,
plot_context_len=plot_context_len,
)
bundle = st.session_state.get("forecast")
# Drop a stale result if the dataset/target changed since it was computed.
if bundle is not None and bundle.get("signature") != (data_label, target_name):
bundle = None
if bundle is None:
# No forecast yet: always visualize the selected dataset itself, regardless
# of the "Run automatically" toggle, so the chosen series is visible before
# (and without) running a forecast.
target_idx = table.names.index(target_name)
preview_x = plot_x_values(time_values, start=0, length=table.length)
preview_fig = plotting.build_dataset_figure(
preview_x, table.values[target_idx], label=target_name,
)
st.plotly_chart(preview_fig, width="stretch", config={"displaylogo": False})
st.caption(
"Dataset preview - configure the run on the left and press "
"**Run forecast** to generate a forecast."
)
else:
render_forecast(**bundle)
# =========================================================================== GUIDE
with tab_guide:
with open("src/description.md") as fh:
desc = fh.read()
st.markdown(desc)