Spaces:
Sleeping
Sleeping
File size: 61,287 Bytes
6164646 6f144b8 de01d22 6f144b8 de01d22 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 1d1b2a6 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6164646 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 d7ed1fb 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6f144b8 6164646 6c83bcd 6f144b8 |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767 768 769 770 771 772 773 774 775 776 777 778 779 780 781 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793 794 795 796 797 798 799 800 801 802 803 804 805 806 807 808 809 810 811 812 813 814 815 816 817 818 819 820 821 822 823 824 825 826 827 828 829 830 831 832 833 834 835 836 837 838 839 840 841 842 843 844 845 846 847 848 849 850 851 852 853 854 855 856 857 858 859 860 861 862 863 864 865 866 867 868 869 870 871 872 873 874 875 876 877 878 879 880 881 882 883 884 885 886 887 888 889 890 891 892 893 894 895 896 897 898 899 900 901 902 903 904 905 906 907 908 909 910 911 912 913 914 915 916 917 918 919 920 921 922 923 924 925 926 927 928 929 930 931 932 933 934 935 936 937 938 939 940 941 942 943 944 945 946 947 948 949 950 951 952 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 960 961 962 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 970 971 972 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 980 981 982 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 1000 1001 1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1008 1009 1010 1011 1012 1013 1014 1015 1016 1017 1018 1019 1020 1021 1022 1023 1024 1025 1026 1027 1028 1029 1030 1031 1032 1033 1034 1035 1036 1037 1038 1039 1040 1041 1042 1043 1044 1045 1046 1047 1048 1049 1050 1051 1052 1053 1054 1055 1056 1057 1058 1059 1060 1061 1062 1063 1064 1065 1066 1067 1068 1069 1070 1071 1072 1073 1074 1075 1076 1077 1078 1079 1080 1081 1082 1083 1084 1085 1086 1087 1088 1089 1090 1091 1092 1093 1094 1095 1096 1097 1098 1099 1100 1101 1102 1103 1104 1105 1106 1107 1108 1109 1110 1111 1112 1113 1114 1115 1116 1117 1118 1119 1120 1121 1122 1123 1124 1125 1126 1127 1128 1129 1130 1131 1132 1133 1134 1135 1136 1137 1138 1139 1140 1141 1142 1143 1144 1145 1146 1147 1148 1149 1150 1151 1152 1153 1154 1155 1156 1157 1158 1159 1160 1161 1162 1163 1164 1165 1166 1167 1168 1169 1170 1171 1172 1173 1174 1175 1176 1177 1178 1179 1180 1181 1182 1183 1184 1185 1186 1187 1188 1189 1190 1191 1192 1193 1194 1195 1196 1197 1198 1199 1200 1201 1202 1203 1204 1205 1206 1207 1208 1209 1210 1211 1212 1213 1214 1215 1216 1217 1218 1219 1220 1221 1222 1223 1224 1225 1226 1227 1228 1229 1230 1231 1232 1233 1234 1235 1236 1237 1238 1239 1240 1241 1242 1243 1244 1245 1246 1247 1248 1249 1250 1251 1252 1253 1254 1255 1256 1257 1258 1259 1260 1261 1262 1263 1264 1265 1266 1267 1268 1269 1270 1271 1272 1273 1274 1275 1276 1277 1278 1279 1280 1281 1282 1283 1284 1285 1286 1287 1288 1289 1290 1291 1292 1293 1294 1295 1296 1297 1298 1299 1300 1301 1302 1303 1304 1305 1306 1307 1308 1309 1310 1311 1312 1313 1314 1315 1316 1317 1318 1319 1320 1321 1322 1323 1324 1325 1326 1327 1328 1329 1330 1331 1332 1333 1334 1335 1336 1337 1338 1339 1340 1341 1342 1343 1344 1345 1346 1347 1348 1349 1350 1351 1352 1353 1354 1355 1356 1357 1358 1359 1360 1361 1362 1363 1364 1365 1366 1367 1368 1369 1370 1371 1372 1373 1374 1375 1376 1377 1378 1379 1380 1381 1382 1383 1384 1385 1386 1387 1388 1389 1390 1391 1392 1393 1394 1395 1396 1397 1398 1399 1400 |
# app.py — Market Breadth & Momentum (sticky results, no nested expanders)
import os
import io
import time
import math
import random
import threading
import concurrent.futures as cf
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import requests
import streamlit as st
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
import plotly.graph_objects as go
# ----------------------------- Helpers & Caching -----------------------------
API_KEY = os.getenv("FMP_API_KEY")
MAX_WORKERS = 32
RATE_BACKOFF_MAX = 300
JITTER_SEC = 0.2
# ----------------------------- Page config -----------------------------
st.set_page_config(page_title="Market Breadth & Momentum", layout="wide")
st.title("Market Breadth & Momentum")
st.markdown(
"Tracks index trend, participation, and momentum across constituents. "
"Shows breadth strength (% above key averages), advance–decline behavior, new highs/lows, "
"the McClellan Oscillator, and cross-section momentum heatmaps."
)
# ---------- session state for sticky results ----------
if "run_id" not in st.session_state:
st.session_state.run_id = None
if "last_params" not in st.session_state:
st.session_state.last_params = None
# ----------------------------- Sidebar -----------------------------
with st.sidebar:
st.header("Parameters")
# Each expander is independent (no nesting).
with st.expander("Data Window", expanded=False):
default_start = datetime(2015, 1, 1).date()
default_end = (datetime.today().date() + timedelta(days=1))
start_date = st.date_input(
"Start date",
value=default_start,
min_value=datetime(2000, 1, 1).date(),
max_value=default_end,
help="Earlier start = more history but slower load. Later start = faster."
)
end_date = st.date_input(
"End date",
value=default_end,
min_value=default_start,
max_value=default_end,
help="End date is set to today + 1 by default to include the latest close."
)
with st.expander("Breadth Settings", expanded=False):
sma_fast = st.number_input(
"Fast MA (days)",
value=50, min_value=20, max_value=200, step=5,
help="Used for % above fast MA and index fast MA. Higher = slower, fewer flips."
)
sma_slow = st.number_input(
"Slow MA (days)",
value=200, min_value=100, max_value=400, step=10,
help="Used for % above slow MA and index slow MA. Higher = slower, longer trend focus."
)
vwap_weeks = st.number_input(
"VWAP lookback (weeks)",
value=200, min_value=52, max_value=520, step=4,
help="Anchored weekly VWAP for the index. Higher = more inertia."
)
ad_smooth = st.number_input(
"Adv/Decl smoothing (days)",
value=30, min_value=5, max_value=90, step=5,
help="Smooths advancing/declining counts. Higher = steadier lines."
)
mo_span_fast = st.number_input(
"McClellan fast EMA (days)",
value=19, min_value=5, max_value=30, step=1,
help="Fast EMA for McClellan Oscillator. Smaller = more sensitive."
)
mo_span_slow = st.number_input(
"McClellan slow EMA (days)",
value=39, min_value=10, max_value=60, step=1,
help="Slow EMA for McClellan Oscillator. Larger = smoother baseline."
)
mo_signal_span = st.number_input(
"McClellan signal EMA (days)",
value=9, min_value=3, max_value=20, step=1,
help="Signal line for the oscillator. Crosses indicate momentum turns."
)
with st.expander("Rebased Comparison", expanded=False):
rebase_days = st.number_input(
"Window (trading days)",
value=365, min_value=60, max_value=1000, step=5,
help="Back window for rebased comparison. Longer = more context, smaller features."
)
rebase_base = st.number_input(
"Base level",
value=100, min_value=1, max_value=1000, step=1,
help="Starting level for rebased lines."
)
y_pad = st.slider(
"Y-range padding",
min_value=1, max_value=8, value=3, step=1,
help="Higher padding widens the log-scale y-range."
)
with st.expander("Heatmaps", expanded=False):
heat_last_days = st.number_input(
"Daily return heatmap window (days)",
value=60, min_value=20, max_value=252, step=5,
help="Number of recent sessions for the daily return heatmap."
)
mom_look = st.number_input(
"Momentum lookback (days)",
value=30, min_value=10, max_value=252, step=5,
help="Return horizon for the percentile momentum heatmap."
)
# Buttons: run persists, clear removes results
#colA, colB = st.columns(2)
#with colA:
# run_clicked = st.button("Run Analysis", type="primary", use_container_width=True)
#with colB:
# clear_clicked = st.button("Clear Results", type="secondary", use_container_width=True)
# Buttons: run persists, no clear button
run_clicked = st.button("Run Analysis", type="primary", use_container_width=True)
clear_clicked = False # <- keep the variable so the rest of the code doesn't break
if run_clicked:
# freeze a snapshot of params used for this run
st.session_state.last_params = dict(
start_date=start_date,
end_date=end_date,
sma_fast=int(sma_fast),
sma_slow=int(sma_slow),
vwap_weeks=int(vwap_weeks),
ad_smooth=int(ad_smooth),
mo_span_fast=int(mo_span_fast),
mo_span_slow=int(mo_span_slow),
mo_signal_span=int(mo_signal_span),
rebase_days=int(rebase_days),
rebase_base=float(rebase_base),
y_pad=int(y_pad),
heat_last_days=int(heat_last_days),
mom_look=int(mom_look),
)
st.session_state.run_id = f"{time.time():.0f}"
if clear_clicked:
st.session_state.run_id = None
st.session_state.last_params = None
# If there are no results yet, show a hint and stop rendering heavy stuff.
if not st.session_state.run_id:
st.info("Set your parameters and click **Run Analysis**. Results will persist until you press **Clear Results**.")
st.stop()
# Use the frozen parameters from the last run so the view doesn’t “shift” on rerun.
P = st.session_state.last_params or {}
start_date = P.get("start_date", datetime(2015, 1, 1).date())
end_date = P.get("end_date", (datetime.today().date() + timedelta(days=1)))
sma_fast = P.get("sma_fast", 50)
sma_slow = P.get("sma_slow", 200)
vwap_weeks = P.get("vwap_weeks", 200)
ad_smooth = P.get("ad_smooth", 30)
mo_span_fast = P.get("mo_span_fast", 19)
mo_span_slow = P.get("mo_span_slow", 39)
mo_signal_span = P.get("mo_signal_span", 9)
rebase_days = P.get("rebase_days", 365)
rebase_base = P.get("rebase_base", 100.0)
y_pad = P.get("y_pad", 3)
heat_last_days = P.get("heat_last_days", 60)
mom_look = P.get("mom_look", 30)
st.caption(
f"Showing results for **Start** {start_date} → **End** {end_date} | "
f"50/200 MAs = {sma_fast}/{sma_slow} | VWAP weeks = {vwap_weeks} | "
f"AD smooth = {ad_smooth} | MO = {mo_span_fast}/{mo_span_slow} (signal {mo_signal_span}) | "
f"Rebase {rebase_days}d @ {rebase_base} | Heatmap {heat_last_days}d | Momentum lookback {mom_look}d."
)
# ----------------------------- Networking helpers -----------------------------
def _to_vendor(sym: str) -> str:
return sym.replace("-", ".")
_thread_local = threading.local()
def _session():
s = getattr(_thread_local, "session", None)
if s is None:
s = requests.Session()
adapter = requests.adapters.HTTPAdapter(pool_connections=MAX_WORKERS, pool_maxsize=MAX_WORKERS)
s.mount("https://", adapter)
_thread_local.session = s
return s
def _get_json(url: str, params: dict, timeout=60, backoff=5):
sess = _session()
while True:
r = sess.get(url, params=params, timeout=timeout)
if r.status_code == 429:
time.sleep(backoff)
backoff = min(backoff * 2, RATE_BACKOFF_MAX)
continue
r.raise_for_status()
return r.json()
def _parse_hist_payload(payload):
item = payload if isinstance(payload, dict) else (payload[0] if payload else {})
sym = item.get("symbol")
hist = item.get("historical") or []
if not sym or not hist:
return None, None
dfh = pd.DataFrame(hist)
if "date" not in dfh or "adjClose" not in dfh:
return None, None
s = (
dfh[["date", "adjClose"]]
.dropna()
.assign(date=lambda x: pd.to_datetime(x["date"]))
.set_index("date")["adjClose"]
.rename(sym)
)
return sym, s
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
def fetch_sp500_table():
url = "https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/sp500_constituent"
params = {"apikey": API_KEY}
payload = _get_json(url, params)
tab = pd.DataFrame(payload)
tab = tab.rename(columns={"symbol": "Symbol", "name": "Security"})
return tab[["Symbol", "Security"]].dropna()
def _fetch_one(orig_ticker: str, start: str, end: str):
time.sleep(random.random() * JITTER_SEC)
t_vendor = _to_vendor(orig_ticker)
url = f"https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/historical-price-full/{t_vendor}"
params = {"from": start, "to": end, "apikey": API_KEY}
try:
payload = _get_json(url, params)
sym, s = _parse_hist_payload(payload)
if s is None or s.empty:
return orig_ticker, None, "no data"
return orig_ticker, s.rename(t_vendor), None
except Exception as e:
return orig_ticker, None, str(e)
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
def build_close_parallel(tickers: list[str], start: str, end: str, max_workers: int = MAX_WORKERS):
series_dict = {}
missing = {}
lock = threading.Lock()
def _task(t):
orig, s, err = _fetch_one(t, start, end)
with lock:
if err:
missing[orig] = err
else:
series_dict[s.name] = s
with cf.ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=max_workers) as ex:
futures = [ex.submit(_task, t) for t in tickers]
for _ in cf.as_completed(futures):
pass
if not series_dict:
return pd.DataFrame(), missing
df = pd.DataFrame(series_dict).sort_index()
df.index.name = "date"
f_to_o = {_to_vendor(t): t for t in tickers}
close = df.rename(columns=f_to_o)
close = close[[t for t in tickers if t in close.columns]]
return close, missing
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
def fetch_index_ohlcv(start: str, end: str):
url = "https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/historical-price-full/index/%5EGSPC"
params = {"from": start, "to": end, "apikey": API_KEY}
backoff = 5
while True:
r = requests.get(url, params=params, timeout=60)
if r.status_code == 429:
time.sleep(backoff)
backoff = min(backoff * 2, 300)
continue
r.raise_for_status()
payload = r.json()
if isinstance(payload, dict) and "historical" in payload:
hist = payload["historical"]
elif isinstance(payload, list) and payload and "historical" in payload[0]:
hist = payload[0]["historical"]
else:
hist = payload
idx_df = (
pd.DataFrame(hist)[["date", "close", "volume"]]
.assign(date=lambda x: pd.to_datetime(x["date"]))
.set_index("date")
.sort_index()
.rename(columns={"close": "Close", "volume": "Volume"})
)
return idx_df
def _safe_last(s):
s = s.dropna()
return s.iloc[-1] if len(s) else np.nan
# ----------------------------- Run (sticky) -----------------------------
with st.spinner("Loading tickers…"):
try:
spx_table = fetch_sp500_table()
except Exception:
st.error("Ticker table request failed. Try again later.")
st.stop()
tickers = spx_table["Symbol"].tolist()
st.caption(f"Constituents loaded: {len(tickers)}")
start_str = pd.to_datetime(start_date).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
end_str = pd.to_datetime(end_date).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
with st.spinner("Fetching historical prices (parallel)…"):
close, missing = build_close_parallel(tickers, start_str, end_str)
if close.empty:
st.error("No price data returned. Reduce the date range and retry.")
st.stop()
if missing:
st.warning(f"No data for {min(20, len(missing))} symbols (showing up to 20).")
clean_close = close.copy()
with st.spinner("Fetching index data…"):
try:
idx_df = fetch_index_ohlcv(
start=clean_close.index[0].strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
end=end_str
)
except Exception:
st.error("Index data request failed. Try again later.")
st.stop()
idx = idx_df["Close"].reindex(clean_close.index).ffill()
idx_volume = idx_df["Volume"].reindex(clean_close.index).ffill()
# ===================== SECTION 1 — Breadth Dashboard =====================
st.header("Breadth Dashboard")
# Methodology (standalone expander)
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
# Overview
st.write("This panel tracks trend, participation, and momentum for a broad equity universe.")
st.write("Use it to judge trend quality, spot divergences, and gauge risk bias.")
# 1) Price trend (MAs, VWAP)
st.write("**Price trend**")
st.latex(r"\mathrm{SMA}_{n}(t)=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}P_{t-k}")
st.write("Approximate 200-week VWAP (using ~5 trading days per week):")
st.latex(r"\mathrm{VWAP}_{200w}(t)=\frac{\sum_{k=0}^{N-1}P_{t-k}V_{t-k}}{\sum_{k=0}^{N-1}V_{t-k}},\quad N\approx200\times5")
st.write("Price above both MAs and fast>slow = strong trend.")
st.write("Price below both MAs and fast<slow = weak trend.")
# 2) Participation breadth (% above MAs)
st.write("**Participation breadth**")
st.write("Share above n-day MA:")
st.latex(r"\%\,\text{Above}_n(t)=100\cdot\frac{\#\{i:\ P_{i,t}>\mathrm{SMA}_{n,i}(t)\}}{N}")
st.write("Zones: 0–20 weak, 20–50 neutral, 50–80 strong.")
st.write("Higher shares mean broad support for the trend.")
# 3) Advance–Decline line
st.write("**Advance–Decline (A/D) line**")
st.latex(r"A_t=\#\{i:\ P_{i,t}>P_{i,t-1}\},\quad D_t=\#\{i:\ P_{i,t}<P_{i,t-1}\}")
st.latex(r"\mathrm{ADLine}_t=\sum_{u\le t}(A_u-D_u)")
st.write("Rising A/D confirms uptrends. Falling A/D warns of narrow leadership.")
# 4) Net new 52-week highs
st.write("**Net new 52-week highs**")
st.latex(r"H_{i,t}^{52}=\max_{u\in[t-251,t]}P_{i,u},\quad L_{i,t}^{52}=\min_{u\in[t-251,t]}P_{i,u}")
st.latex(r"\text{NewHighs}_t=\sum_i \mathbf{1}\{P_{i,t}=H_{i,t}^{52}\},\quad \text{NewLows}_t=\sum_i \mathbf{1}\{P_{i,t}=L_{i,t}^{52}\}")
st.latex(r"\text{NetHighs}_t=\text{NewHighs}_t-\text{NewLows}_t")
st.write("Positive and persistent net highs support trend durability.")
# 5) Smoothed advancing vs declining counts
st.write("**Advancing vs declining (smoothed)**")
st.latex(r"\overline{A}_t=\frac{1}{w}\sum_{k=0}^{w-1}A_{t-k},\quad \overline{D}_t=\frac{1}{w}\sum_{k=0}^{w-1}D_{t-k}")
st.write("Advancers > decliners over the window = constructive breadth.")
# 6) McClellan Oscillator
st.write("**McClellan Oscillator (MO)**")
st.latex(r"E^{(n)}_t=\text{EMA}_n(A_t-D_t)")
st.latex(r"\mathrm{MO}_t=E^{(19)}_t-E^{(39)}_t")
st.write("Zero-line up-cross = improving momentum. Down-cross = fading momentum.")
st.write("A 9-day EMA of MO can act as a signal line.")
# Practical reads
st.write("**Practical use**")
st.write("- Broad strength: % above 200-day ≥ 50% supports trends.")
st.write("- Divergences: index near highs without A/D or MO confirmation = caution.")
st.write("- Breadth thrust: sharp rise in % above 50-day to ≥ 55% with a +20pt jump can mark regime turns.")
st.write("- MO near recent extremes flags stretched short-term conditions.")
# --- Compute indicators (respecting sidebar params) ---
sma_fast_idx = idx.rolling(int(sma_fast), min_periods=int(sma_fast)).mean()
sma_slow_idx = idx.rolling(int(sma_slow), min_periods=int(sma_slow)).mean()
vwap_days = int(vwap_weeks) * 5
vwap_idx = (idx * idx_volume).rolling(vwap_days, min_periods=vwap_days).sum() / \
idx_volume.rolling(vwap_days, min_periods=vwap_days).sum()
sma_fast_all = clean_close.rolling(int(sma_fast), min_periods=int(sma_fast)).mean()
sma_slow_all = clean_close.rolling(int(sma_slow), min_periods=int(sma_slow)).mean()
pct_above_fast = (clean_close > sma_fast_all).sum(axis=1) / clean_close.shape[1] * 100
pct_above_slow = (clean_close > sma_slow_all).sum(axis=1) / clean_close.shape[1] * 100
advances = (clean_close.diff() > 0).sum(axis=1)
declines = (clean_close.diff() < 0).sum(axis=1)
ad_line = (advances - declines).cumsum()
window = int(ad_smooth)
avg_adv = advances.rolling(window, min_periods=window).mean()
avg_decl = declines.rolling(window, min_periods=window).mean()
high52 = clean_close.rolling(252, min_periods=252).max()
low52 = clean_close.rolling(252, min_periods=252).min()
new_highs = (clean_close == high52).sum(axis=1)
new_lows = (clean_close == low52).sum(axis=1)
net_highs = new_highs - new_lows
sma10_net_hi = net_highs.rolling(10, min_periods=10).mean()
net_adv = (advances - declines).astype("float64")
ema_fast = net_adv.ewm(span=int(mo_span_fast), adjust=False).mean()
ema_slow = net_adv.ewm(span=int(mo_span_slow), adjust=False).mean()
mc_osc = (ema_fast - ema_slow).rename("MO")
mo_pos = mc_osc.clip(lower=0)
mo_neg = mc_osc.clip(upper=0)
bound = float(np.nanpercentile(np.abs(mc_osc.dropna()), 99)) if mc_osc.notna().sum() else 20.0
bound = max(20.0, math.ceil(bound / 10.0) * 10.0)
# --- Plot (6 rows) ---
fig = make_subplots(
rows=6, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.03,
subplot_titles=(
"S&P 500 Price / Fast MA / Slow MA / Weekly VWAP",
f"% Above {int(sma_fast)}d & {int(sma_slow)}d",
"Advance–Decline Line",
"Net New 52-Week Highs (bar) + 10d SMA",
f"Advancing vs Declining ({int(window)}d MA)",
f"McClellan Oscillator ({int(mo_span_fast)},{int(mo_span_slow)})"
)
)
fig.update_layout(template="plotly_dark", font=dict(color="white"))
if hasattr(fig.layout, "annotations"):
for a in fig.layout.annotations:
a.font = dict(color="white", size=12)
# Row 1
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=idx.index, y=idx, name="S&P 500"), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sma_fast_idx.index, y=sma_fast_idx, name=f"{int(sma_fast)}-day MA"), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sma_slow_idx.index, y=sma_slow_idx, name=f"{int(sma_slow)}-day MA"), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=vwap_idx.index, y=vwap_idx, name=f"{int(vwap_weeks)}-week VWAP"), row=1, col=1)
# Row 2
fig.add_hrect(y0=0, y1=20, line_width=0, fillcolor="red", opacity=0.3, row=2, col=1)
fig.add_hrect(y0=20, y1=50, line_width=0, fillcolor="yellow", opacity=0.3, row=2, col=1)
fig.add_hrect(y0=50, y1=80, line_width=0, fillcolor="green", opacity=0.3, row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=pct_above_fast.index, y=pct_above_fast, name=f"% Above {int(sma_fast)}d"), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=pct_above_slow.index, y=pct_above_slow, name=f"% Above {int(sma_slow)}d"), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_annotation(x=0, xref="paper", y=10, yref="y2", text="Weak", showarrow=False, align="left", font=dict(color="white"))
fig.add_annotation(x=0, xref="paper", y=35, yref="y2", text="Neutral", showarrow=False, align="left", font=dict(color="white"))
fig.add_annotation(x=0, xref="paper", y=65, yref="y2", text="Strong", showarrow=False, align="left", font=dict(color="white"))
# Row 3
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=ad_line.index, y=ad_line, name="A/D Line"), row=3, col=1)
# Row 4
fig.add_trace(go.Bar(x=net_highs.index, y=net_highs, name="Net New Highs", opacity=0.5), row=4, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sma10_net_hi.index, y=sma10_net_hi, name="10-day SMA"), row=4, col=1)
# Row 5
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=avg_adv.index, y=avg_adv, name=f"Adv ({int(window)}d MA)"), row=5, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=avg_decl.index, y=avg_decl, name=f"Dec ({int(window)}d MA)"), row=5, col=1)
# Row 6
fig.add_trace(
go.Bar(x=mo_pos.index, y=mo_pos, name="MO +",
marker=dict(color="#2ecc71", line=dict(width=0)),
hovertemplate="MO: %{y:.1f}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<extra></extra>",
showlegend=False),
row=6, col=1
)
fig.add_trace(
go.Bar(x=mo_neg.index, y=mo_neg, name="MO -",
marker=dict(color="#e74c3c", line=dict(width=0)),
hovertemplate="MO: %{y:.1f}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<extra></extra>",
showlegend=False),
row=6, col=1
)
fig.add_hline(y=0, line_width=1, line_dash="dash", line_color="rgba(180,180,180,0.8)", row=6, col=1)
fig.update_xaxes(
ticklabelmode="period",
tickformatstops=[
dict(dtickrange=[None, 24*3600*1000], value="%b %d\n%Y"),
dict(dtickrange=[24*3600*1000, 7*24*3600*1000], value="%b %d"),
dict(dtickrange=[7*24*3600*1000, "M1"], value="%b %d\n%Y"),
dict(dtickrange=["M1", "M6"], value="%b %Y"),
dict(dtickrange=["M6", None], value="%Y"),
],
tickangle=0,
tickfont=dict(color="white"),
title_font=dict(color="white"),
showgrid=True, gridcolor="rgba(160,160,160,0.2)",
showline=True, linecolor="rgba(255,255,255,0.4)",
rangeslider_visible=False
)
fig.update_yaxes(
tickfont=dict(color="white"),
title_font=dict(color="white"),
showgrid=True, gridcolor="rgba(160,160,160,0.2)",
showline=True, linecolor="rgba(255,255,255,0.4)"
)
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Price", row=1, col=1)
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Percent", row=2, col=1, range=[0, 100])
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="A/D", row=3, col=1)
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Net", row=4, col=1)
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Count", row=5, col=1)
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="MO", row=6, col=1, range=[-bound, bound], side="right")
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Date", row=6, col=1)
fig.update_layout(
height=1350,
bargap=0.02,
barmode="relative",
legend=dict(
orientation="h", yanchor="bottom", y=1.02, xanchor="left", x=0,
font=dict(color="white")
),
margin=dict(l=60, r=20, t=40, b=40),
hovermode="x unified",
font=dict(color="white"),
title=dict(font=dict(color="white"))
)
st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
# --- Dynamic interpretation (standalone expander) ---
with st.expander("Dynamic Interpretation", expanded=False):
buf = io.StringIO()
def _last_val(s):
s = s.dropna()
return s.iloc[-1] if len(s) else np.nan
def _last_date(s):
s = s.dropna()
return s.index[-1] if len(s) else None
def _pct(a, b):
if not np.isfinite(a) or not np.isfinite(b) or b == 0:
return np.nan
return (a - b) / b * 100.0
def _fmt_pct(x):
return "n/a" if not np.isfinite(x) else f"{x:.1f}%"
def _fmt_num(x):
return "n/a" if not np.isfinite(x) else f"{x:,.2f}"
as_of = _last_date(idx)
px = _last_val(idx)
ma50 = _last_val(sma_fast_idx)
ma200 = _last_val(sma_slow_idx)
vwap200 = _last_val(vwap_idx)
p50 = float(_last_val(pct_above_fast))
p200 = float(_last_val(pct_above_slow))
ad_now = _last_val(ad_line)
nh_now = int(_last_val(new_highs)) if np.isfinite(_last_val(new_highs)) else 0
nh_sma = float(_last_val(sma10_net_hi))
avg_adv_last = float(_last_val(avg_adv))
avg_decl_last = float(_last_val(avg_decl))
_ema19 = net_adv.ewm(span=int(mo_span_fast), adjust=False).mean()
_ema39 = net_adv.ewm(span=int(mo_span_slow), adjust=False).mean()
mc_osc2 = (_ema19 - _ema39).rename("MO")
mc_signal = mc_osc2.ewm(span=int(mo_signal_span), adjust=False).mean().rename("Signal")
mo_last = float(_last_val(mc_osc2))
mo_prev = float(_last_val(mc_osc2.shift(1)))
mo_5ago = float(_last_val(mc_osc2.shift(5)))
mo_slope5 = mo_last - mo_5ago
mo_sig_last = float(_last_val(mc_signal))
mo_sig_prev = float(_last_val(mc_signal.shift(1)))
mo_roll = mc_osc2.rolling(252, min_periods=126)
mo_mean = mo_roll.mean()
mo_std = mo_roll.std()
mo_z = (mc_osc2 - mo_mean) / mo_std
mo_z_last = float(_last_val(mo_z))
mo_abs = np.abs(mc_osc2.dropna())
if len(mo_abs) >= 20:
mo_ext = float(np.nanpercentile(mo_abs.tail(252), 90))
else:
mo_ext = np.nan
look_fast = 10
look_mid = 20
look_div = 63
ma50_slope = _last_val(sma_fast_idx.diff(look_fast))
ma200_slope = _last_val(sma_slow_idx.diff(look_mid))
p50_chg = p50 - float(_last_val(pct_above_fast.shift(look_fast)))
p200_chg = p200 - float(_last_val(pct_above_slow.shift(look_fast)))
ad_mom = ad_now - float(_last_val(ad_line.shift(look_mid)))
d50 = _pct(px, ma50)
d200 = _pct(px, ma200)
dvw = _pct(px, vwap200)
h63 = float(_last_val(idx.rolling(look_div).max()))
dd63 = _pct(px, h63) if np.isfinite(h63) else np.nan
ad_63h = float(_last_val(ad_line.rolling(look_div).max()))
mo_63h = float(_last_val(mc_osc2.rolling(look_div).max()))
near_high_px = np.isfinite(h63) and np.isfinite(px) and px >= 0.995 * h63
near_high_ad = np.isfinite(ad_63h) and np.isfinite(ad_now) and ad_now >= 0.995 * ad_63h
near_high_mo = np.isfinite(mo_63h) and np.isfinite(mo_last) and mo_last >= 0.95 * mo_63h
breadth_thrust = (p50 >= 55) and (p50_chg >= 20)
score = 0
score += 1 if px > ma50 else 0
score += 1 if px > ma200 else 0
score += 1 if ma50 > ma200 else 0
score += 1 if ma50_slope > 0 else 0
score += 1 if p50 >= 50 else 0
score += 1 if p200 >= 50 else 0
score += 1 if ad_mom > 0 else 0
score += 1 if nh_now > 0 and nh_sma >= 0 else 0
score += 1 if avg_adv_last > avg_decl_last else 0
score += 1 if (mo_last > 0 and mo_slope5 > 0) else 0
if score >= 8:
regime = "Risk-on bias"
elif score >= 5:
regime = "Mixed bias"
else:
regime = "Risk-off bias"
print(f"=== Market breadth narrative — {as_of.date() if as_of is not None else 'N/A'} ===", file=buf)
# [Trend]
print("\n[Trend]", file=buf)
if np.isfinite(px) and np.isfinite(ma50) and np.isfinite(ma200):
print(
"The index is {px}, the 50-day is {ma50}, and the 200-day is {ma200}. "
"Price runs {d50} vs the 50-day and {d200} vs the 200-day. "
"The 50-day changed by {m50s} over {f} sessions and the 200-day changed by {m200s} over {m} sessions."
.format(
px=_fmt_num(px), ma50=_fmt_num(ma50), ma200=_fmt_num(ma200),
d50=_fmt_pct(d50), d200=_fmt_pct(d200),
m50s=f"{ma50_slope:+.2f}" if np.isfinite(ma50_slope) else "n/a",
m200s=f"{ma200_slope:+.2f}" if np.isfinite(ma200_slope) else "n/a",
f=look_fast, m=look_mid
), file=buf
)
if np.isfinite(vwap200):
print("The index is {dvw} versus the 200-week VWAP.".format(dvw=_fmt_pct(dvw)), file=buf)
if np.isfinite(dd63):
print("Distance from the 3-month high is {dd}.".format(dd=_fmt_pct(dd63)), file=buf)
if px > ma50 and ma50 > ma200:
print("Structure is bullish: price above both averages and the fast above the slow.", file=buf)
elif px < ma50 and ma50 < ma200:
print("Structure is bearish: price below both averages and the fast below the slow.", file=buf)
else:
print("Structure is mixed: levels are not aligned.", file=buf)
else:
print("Trend inputs are incomplete.", file=buf)
# [Participation]
print("\n[Participation]", file=buf)
if np.isfinite(p50) and np.isfinite(p200):
print(
"{p50} of members sit above the 50-day and {p200} above the 200-day. "
"The 50-day share moved {p50chg} over {f} sessions, and the 200-day share moved {p200chg}."
.format(
p50=f"{p50:.1f}%", p200=f"{p200:.1f}%",
p50chg=f"{p50_chg:+.1f} pts", p200chg=f"{p200_chg:+.1f} pts", f=look_fast
), file=buf
)
if p50 < 20 and p200 < 20:
print("Participation is very weak across both horizons.", file=buf)
elif p50 < 50 and p200 < 50:
print("Participation is weak; leadership is narrow.", file=buf)
elif p50 >= 50 and p200 < 50:
print("Short-term breadth improved, long-term base still soft.", file=buf)
elif p50 >= 50 and p200 >= 50:
print("Participation is broad and supportive.", file=buf)
if breadth_thrust:
print("The 50-day breadth jump qualifies as a breadth thrust.", file=buf)
else:
print("Breadth percentages are missing.", file=buf)
# [Advance–Decline]
print("\n[Advance–Decline]", file=buf)
if np.isfinite(ad_now):
print(
"A/D momentum over {m} sessions is {admom:+.0f}. "
"Price is {pxnear} a 3-month high and A/D is {adnear} the same mark."
.format(
m=look_mid, admom=ad_mom,
pxnear="near" if near_high_px else "not near",
adnear="near" if near_high_ad else "not near"
), file=buf
)
if near_high_px and not near_high_ad:
print("Price tested highs without A/D confirmation.", file=buf)
elif near_high_px and near_high_ad:
print("Price and A/D both near recent highs.", file=buf)
elif (not near_high_px) and near_high_ad:
print("A/D improved while price lagged.", file=buf)
else:
print("No short-term confirmation signal.", file=buf)
else:
print("A/D data is unavailable.", file=buf)
# [McClellan Oscillator]
print("\n[McClellan Oscillator]", file=buf)
if np.isfinite(mo_last):
zero_cross_up = (mo_prev < 0) and (mo_last >= 0)
zero_cross_down = (mo_prev > 0) and (mo_last <= 0)
sig_cross_up = (mo_prev <= mo_sig_prev) and (mo_last > mo_sig_last)
sig_cross_down = (mo_prev >= mo_sig_prev) and (mo_last < mo_sig_last)
near_extreme = np.isfinite(mo_ext) and (abs(mo_last) >= 0.9 * mo_ext)
print(
"MO prints {mo:+.1f} with a 9-day signal at {sig:+.1f}. "
"Five-day slope is {slope:+.1f}. Z-score over 1y is {z}."
.format(
mo=mo_last, sig=mo_sig_last, slope=mo_slope5,
z=f"{mo_z_last:.2f}" if np.isfinite(mo_z_last) else "n/a"
), file=buf
)
if zero_cross_up:
print("Bullish zero-line cross: momentum turned positive.", file=buf)
if zero_cross_down:
print("Bearish zero-line cross: momentum turned negative.", file=buf)
if sig_cross_up:
print("Bullish signal cross: MO moved above its 9-day signal.", file=buf)
if sig_cross_down:
print("Bearish signal cross: MO fell below its 9-day signal.", file=buf)
if near_extreme:
tag = "positive" if mo_last > 0 else "negative"
print(f"MO is near a recent {tag} extreme by distribution.", file=buf)
elif np.isfinite(mo_ext):
print(f"Recent absolute extreme band is about ±{mo_ext:.0f}.", file=buf)
if near_high_px and not near_high_mo:
print("Price near short-term highs without a matching MO high.", file=buf)
if (not near_high_px) and near_high_mo:
print("MO near a short-term high while price lags.", file=buf)
else:
print("MO series is unavailable.", file=buf)
# [New Highs vs Lows]
print("\n[New Highs vs Lows]", file=buf)
if np.isfinite(nh_sma):
if nh_now > 0 and nh_sma >= 0:
print("Net new highs are positive and the 10-day trend is non-negative.", file=buf)
elif nh_now < 0 and nh_sma <= 0:
print("Net new lows dominate and the 10-day trend is negative.", file=buf)
else:
print("Daily print and 10-day trend disagree; signal is mixed.", file=buf)
else:
print("High/low series is incomplete.", file=buf)
# [Advancing vs Declining]
print("\n[Advancing vs Declining]", file=buf)
if np.isfinite(avg_adv_last) and np.isfinite(avg_decl_last):
spread = avg_adv_last - avg_decl_last
print(
"On a {w}-day smoothing window, advancers average {adv:.0f} and decliners {dec:.0f}. Net spread is {spr:+.0f}."
.format(w=window, adv=avg_adv_last, dec=avg_decl_last, spr=spread), file=buf
)
if spread > 0:
print("The spread favors advancers.", file=buf)
elif spread < 0:
print("The spread favors decliners.", file=buf)
else:
print("Advancers and decliners are balanced.", file=buf)
else:
print("Smoothed A/D data is missing.", file=buf)
# [Aggregate]
print("\n[Aggregate]", file=buf)
print("Composite score is {score}/10 → {regime}.".format(score=score, regime=regime), file=buf)
if regime == "Risk-on bias":
if p200 >= 60 and ma200_slope > 0 and mo_last > 0:
print("Long-term breadth and MO agree; pullbacks above the 50-day tend to be buyable.", file=buf)
else:
print("Tone is supportive; watch the 200-day and MO zero-line for confirmation.", file=buf)
elif regime == "Mixed bias":
print("Signals diverge; manage size and tighten risk until MO and breadth align.", file=buf)
else:
if p200 <= 40 and ma200_slope < 0 and mo_last < 0:
print("Weak long-term breadth with negative MO argues for caution.", file=buf)
else:
print("Bias leans defensive until breadth steadies and MO turns up.", file=buf)
# [What to monitor]
print("\n[What to monitor]", file=buf)
print("Watch the 200-day breadth around 50% for confirmation of durable trends.", file=buf)
print("Track MO zero-line and signal crosses during price tests of resistance.", file=buf)
print("Look for steady positive net new highs over a 10-day window.", file=buf)
st.text(buf.getvalue())
# ===================== SECTION 2 — Rebased Comparison =====================
st.header("Rebased Comparison (Last N sessions)")
# Methodology (standalone expander)
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.write("Compares stock paths on a common scale and highlights leadership vs laggards.")
st.write("Use it to judge breadth, concentration, and dispersion over the selected window.")
st.write("**Rebasing (start = B)**")
st.latex(r"R_{i,t}= \frac{P_{i,t}}{P_{i,t_0}}\times B")
st.write("Each line shows cumulative performance since the window start.")
st.write("The index is rebased the same way for reference.")
st.write("**Log scale**")
st.write("We plot the y-axis in log scale so equal percent moves look equal.")
st.write("Y-range uses robust bounds (1st–99th percentiles) with padding.")
st.write("**Leaders and laggards**")
st.latex(r"\text{Perf}_{i}=R_{i,T}")
st.write("Leaders are highest Perf at T. Laggards are lowest.")
st.write("MAG7 are highlighted if present.")
st.write("**Equal-weight summaries**")
st.latex(r"\text{EWAvg}_T=\frac{1}{M}\sum_{i=1}^{M}R_{i,T}")
st.latex(r"\text{Median}_T=\operatorname{median}\{R_{i,T}\}")
st.latex(r"\%\text{Up}_T=100\cdot \frac{1}{M}\sum_{i=1}^{M}\mathbf{1}[R_{i,T}>B]")
st.latex(r"\%\text{BeatIdx}_T=100\cdot \frac{1}{M}\sum_{i=1}^{M}\mathbf{1}[R_{i,T}>R_{\text{idx},T}]")
st.write("These give a breadth read relative to the index and to flat (B).")
st.write("**Dispersion (cross-section)**")
st.latex(r"\sigma_T=\operatorname{stdev}\{R_{i,T}\},\quad \text{IQR}_T=Q_{0.75}-Q_{0.25}")
st.write("High dispersion means large performance spread across names.")
st.write("**Concentration (top N share of gains)**")
st.latex(r"\text{TopNShare}_T=\frac{\sum_{i\in \text{Top}N}(R_{i,T}-B)}{\sum_{j=1}^{M}(R_{j,T}-B)}\times 100")
st.write("Large TopNShare implies leadership is concentrated.")
st.write("**Correlation to index (optional diagnostic)**")
st.latex(r"\rho_i=\operatorname{corr}\big(\Delta \ln P_{i,t},\, \Delta \ln P_{\text{idx},t}\big)")
st.write("Lower median correlation favors stock picking. High correlation means beta drives moves.")
st.write("**Practical reads**")
st.write("- Broad advance: many lines above the index and %BeatIdx high.")
st.write("- Concentration risk: TopNShare large while most lines trail the index.")
st.write("- Rotation/dispersion: high cross-section std and lower median correlation.")
st.write("- Leadership quality: leaders holding gains on a log scale with limited drawdowns.")
n_days = int(rebase_days)
base = float(rebase_base)
recent = clean_close.iloc[-n_days:].dropna(axis=1, how="any")
if recent.empty:
st.warning("Not enough overlapping history for the rebased comparison window.")
else:
first = recent.iloc[0]
mask = (first > 0) & np.isfinite(first)
rebased = (recent.loc[:, mask] / first[mask]) * base
perf = rebased.iloc[-1].dropna()
mag7_all = ["AAPL","MSFT","AMZN","META","GOOGL","NVDA","TSLA"]
mag7 = [t for t in mag7_all if t in rebased.columns]
non_mag = perf.drop(index=mag7, errors="ignore")
top5 = non_mag.nlargest(min(5, len(non_mag))).index.tolist()
worst5 = non_mag.nsmallest(min(5, len(non_mag))).index.tolist()
mag_colors = {
"AAPL":"#00bfff","MSFT":"#3cb44b","AMZN":"#ffe119",
"META":"#4363d8","GOOGL":"#f58231","NVDA":"#911eb4","TSLA":"#46f0f0"
}
spx = idx.reindex(rebased.index).dropna()
spx_rebased = spx / spx.iloc[0] * base
def hover_tmpl(name: str) -> str:
return "%{y:.2f}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<extra>" + name + "</extra>"
fig2 = go.Figure()
for t in rebased.columns:
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
x=rebased.index, y=rebased[t], name=t, mode="lines",
line=dict(width=1, color="rgba(160,160,160,0.4)"),
hovertemplate=hover_tmpl(t), showlegend=False
))
for t in mag7:
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
x=rebased.index, y=rebased[t], name=t, mode="lines",
line=dict(width=2, color=mag_colors.get(t, "#ffffff")),
hovertemplate=hover_tmpl(t)
))
for t in top5:
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
x=rebased.index, y=rebased[t], name=f"Top {t}", mode="lines",
line=dict(width=2, color="lime"),
hovertemplate=hover_tmpl(t), showlegend=False
))
for t in worst5:
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
x=rebased.index, y=rebased[t], name=f"Worst {t}", mode="lines",
line=dict(width=2, color="red", dash="dash"),
hovertemplate=hover_tmpl(t), showlegend=False
))
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
x=spx_rebased.index, y=spx_rebased.values, name="S&P 500 (rebased)", mode="lines",
line=dict(width=3, color="white"), hovertemplate=hover_tmpl("S&P 500")
))
vals = pd.concat([rebased.stack(), pd.Series(spx_rebased.values, index=spx_rebased.index)])
vals = vals.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna()
vals = vals[vals > 0]
y_range = None
if len(vals) > 10:
qlo, qhi = vals.quantile([0.01, 0.99])
y_min = max(1e-2, qlo / y_pad)
y_max = max(y_min * 1.1, qhi * y_pad)
y_range = [np.log10(y_min), np.log10(y_max)]
fig2.update_yaxes(type="log", range=y_range, title=f"Rebased Price (start = {int(base)})")
fig2.update_xaxes(title="Date")
fig2.update_layout(
template="plotly_dark",
height=700,
margin=dict(l=60, r=30, t=70, b=90),
title=f"Price Level Comparison (Rebased, Log Scale) — Last {n_days} Sessions",
legend=dict(orientation="h", y=-0.18, yanchor="top", x=0, xanchor="left"),
hovermode="closest",
font=dict(color="white")
)
st.plotly_chart(fig2, use_container_width=True)
# Dynamic Interpretation (standalone expander)
with st.expander("Dynamic Interpretation", expanded=False):
buf2 = io.StringIO()
def _fmt_pct(x):
return "n/a" if pd.isna(x) else f"{x:.1f}%"
def _fmt_num(x):
return "n/a" if pd.isna(x) else f"{x:,.2f}"
if rebased.empty or spx_rebased.empty:
print("No data for interpretation.", file=buf2)
else:
as_of = rebased.index[-1].date()
perf_last = rebased.iloc[-1].dropna()
spx_last = float(spx_rebased.iloc[-1])
n_names = len(perf_last)
eq_avg = float(perf_last.mean())
eq_med = float(perf_last.median())
pct_pos = float((perf_last > base).mean() * 100)
pct_beat = float((perf_last > spx_last).mean() * 100)
disp_std = float(perf_last.std(ddof=0))
iqr_lo, iqr_hi = float(perf_last.quantile(0.25)), float(perf_last.quantile(0.75))
iqr_w = iqr_hi - iqr_lo
mag7_in = [t for t in mag7 if t in perf_last.index]
rest_idx = perf_last.index.difference(mag7_in)
mag7_mean = float(perf_last[mag7_in].mean()) if len(mag7_in) else np.nan
rest_mean = float(perf_last[rest_idx].mean()) if len(rest_idx) else np.nan
mag7_beat = float((perf_last[mag7_in] > spx_last).mean() * 100) if len(mag7_in) else np.nan
gains_all = float((perf_last - base).sum())
topN = 10
top_contrib = np.nan
if abs(gains_all) > 1e-9:
top_contrib = float((perf_last.sort_values(ascending=False).head(topN) - base).sum() / gains_all * 100)
rets = rebased.pct_change().replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna(how="all")
spx_r = pd.Series(spx_rebased, index=spx_rebased.index).pct_change()
corr_to_spx = rets.corrwith(spx_r, axis=0).dropna()
corr_med = float(corr_to_spx.median()) if len(corr_to_spx) else np.nan
low_corr_share = float((corr_to_spx < 0.3).mean() * 100) if len(corr_to_spx) else np.nan
spx_chg = spx_last - base
k = min(5, n_names)
leaders = perf_last.sort_values(ascending=False).head(k)
laggards = perf_last.sort_values(ascending=True).head(k)
print(f"=== Rebased performance read — {as_of} (window: {n_days} sessions) ===\n", file=buf2)
print("[Market]", file=buf2)
print(f"S&P 500 is {_fmt_pct(spx_chg)} over the window.", file=buf2)
print(f"Equal-weight average is {_fmt_pct(eq_avg - base)}, median is {_fmt_pct(eq_med - base)}.", file=buf2)
if np.isfinite(eq_avg) and np.isfinite(spx_last):
gap = (eq_avg - spx_last)
side = "above" if gap >= 0 else "below"
print(f"Equal-weight sits {_fmt_pct(abs(gap))} {side} the index.", file=buf2)
print("", file=buf2)
print("[Breadth]", file=buf2)
print(f"{_fmt_pct(pct_pos)} of names are up. {_fmt_pct(pct_beat)} beat the index.", file=buf2)
print(f"Dispersion std is {_fmt_num(disp_std)} points on the rebased scale.", file=buf2)
print(f"IQR width is {_fmt_num(iqr_w)} points ({_fmt_num(iqr_lo)} to {_fmt_num(iqr_hi)}).", file=buf2)
if pct_pos >= 70 and pct_beat >= 55:
print("Rally is broad. Leadership is shared across many names.", file=buf2)
elif pct_pos <= 35 and pct_beat <= 45:
print("Rally is narrow or absent. Leadership is concentrated.", file=buf2)
else:
print("Breadth is mixed. The tape can rotate quickly.", file=buf2)
print("", file=buf2)
print("[Concentration]", file=buf2)
if np.isfinite(top_contrib):
print(f"Top {topN} names explain {_fmt_pct(top_contrib)} of equal-weight gains.", file=buf2)
if len(mag7_in):
print(f"MAG7 equal-weight is {_fmt_pct(mag7_mean - base)}. Rest is {_fmt_pct(rest_mean - base)}.", file=buf2)
if np.isfinite(mag7_beat):
print(f"{_fmt_pct(mag7_beat)} of MAG7 beat the index.", file=buf2)
else:
print("MAG7 tickers are not all present in this window.", file=buf2)
print("", file=buf2)
print("[Correlation]", file=buf2)
if len(corr_to_spx):
print(f"Median correlation to the index is {_fmt_num(corr_med)}.", file=buf2)
print(f"{_fmt_pct(low_corr_share)} of names show low correlation (<0.30).", file=buf2)
if np.isfinite(corr_med) and corr_med < 0.5:
print("Factor dispersion is high. Stock picking matters more.", file=buf2)
elif np.isfinite(corr_med) and corr_med > 0.8:
print("Common beta dominates. Moves are index-driven.", file=buf2)
else:
print("Correlation sits in a middle zone. Rotation can continue.", file=buf2)
else:
print("Not enough data to compute correlations.", file=buf2)
print("", file=buf2)
print("[Leaders]", file=buf2)
for t, v in leaders.items():
print(f" {t}: {_fmt_pct(v - base)}", file=buf2)
print("\n[Laggards]", file=buf2)
for t, v in laggards.items():
print(f" {t}: {_fmt_pct(v - base)}", file=buf2)
print("\n[What to monitor]", file=buf2)
print("Watch the gap between equal-weight and index. A widening gap signals concentration risk.", file=buf2)
print("Track the share beating the index. Sustained readings above 55% support trend durability.", file=buf2)
print("Watch median correlation. Falling correlation favors dispersion and relative value setups.", file=buf2)
st.text(buf2.getvalue())
# ===================== SECTION 3 — Daily Return Heatmap =====================
st.header("Daily Return Heatmap")
# Methodology (standalone expander)
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.write("Shows daily % returns for all names over the selected window. Highlights broad up/down days, dispersion, and leadership.")
st.write("Use it to spot synchronized moves, stress days, and rotation across the universe.")
st.write("**Daily return (per name)**")
st.latex(r"r_{i,t}=\frac{P_{i,t}}{P_{i,t-1}}-1")
st.write("**Heatmap values**")
st.write("Cells display r_{i,t}. Tickers are sorted by the most recent day’s return so leaders/laggards are obvious.")
st.write("**Robust color scale (cap extremes)**")
st.latex(r"c=\operatorname{P95}\left(\left|r_{i,t}\right|\right)\ \text{over the window}")
st.latex(r"\text{color range}=[-c,\,+c],\quad \text{midpoint}=0")
st.write("Capping avoids a few outliers overpowering the color scale.")
st.write("**Breadth and dispersion (how to read)**")
st.latex(r"\text{Up share}_t=100\cdot \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N}\mathbf{1}[r_{i,t}>0]")
st.latex(r"\sigma_{\text{cs},t}=\operatorname{stdev}\{r_{i,t}\}_{i=1}^{N}")
st.write("- High up share with low dispersion = uniform risk-on.")
st.write("- Mixed colors with high dispersion = rotation and factor spread.")
st.write("- Clusters of red/green by industry often flag sector moves.")
st.write("**Large-move counts (quick context)**")
st.latex(r"\text{BigUp}_t=\sum_{i}\mathbf{1}[r_{i,t}\ge \tau],\quad \text{BigDn}_t=\sum_{i}\mathbf{1}[r_{i,t}\le -\tau]")
st.latex(r"\tau=2\% \ \text{(default)}")
st.write("A jump in BigUp/BigDn signals a thrust or a shock day.")
st.write("**Short-horizon follow-through**")
st.latex(r"\bar{r}_{i,t}^{(w)}=\frac{1}{w}\sum_{k=0}^{w-1} r_{i,t-k},\quad w=5")
st.write("A broad rise in 5-day averages supports continuation; a fade warns of stall.")
st.write("**Practical reads**")
st.write("- Many greens, low dispersion: beta tailwind; index setups work.")
st.write("- Greens + high dispersion: stock picking/sector tilts matter.")
st.write("- Reds concentrated in a few groups: rotate risk, not necessarily de-risk.")
st.write("- Extreme red breadth with spikes in dispersion: watch liquidity and reduce gross.")
# Daily returns last N days
ret_daily = clean_close.pct_change().iloc[1:]
ret_window = int(heat_last_days)
ret_last = ret_daily.iloc[-ret_window:]
if ret_last.empty:
st.warning("Not enough data for the daily return heatmap.")
else:
order = ret_last.iloc[-1].sort_values(ascending=True).index
ret_last = ret_last[order]
abs_max = np.nanpercentile(np.abs(ret_last.values), 95)
z = ret_last.T.values
x = ret_last.index
y = list(order)
n_dates = len(x)
step = max(1, n_dates // 10)
xtick_vals = x[::step]
xtick_texts = [ts.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") for ts in xtick_vals]
fig_hm = go.Figure(go.Heatmap(
z=z, x=x, y=y,
colorscale="RdYlGn",
zmin=-abs_max, zmax=abs_max, zmid=0,
colorbar=dict(title="Daily Return", tickformat=".0%"),
hovertemplate="%{y}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<br>%{z:.2%}<extra></extra>"
))
height = max(800, min(3200, 18 * len(y)))
fig_hm.update_layout(
template="plotly_dark",
title=f"Last {ret_window}-Day Daily Return Heatmap",
height=height,
margin=dict(l=100, r=40, t=60, b=60),
font=dict(color="white")
)
fig_hm.update_yaxes(title="Tickers (sorted by latest daily return)", tickfont=dict(size=8))
fig_hm.update_xaxes(title="Date", tickmode="array", tickvals=xtick_vals, ticktext=xtick_texts, tickangle=45)
st.plotly_chart(fig_hm, use_container_width=True)
# Dynamic Interpretation (standalone expander)
with st.expander("Dynamic Interpretation", expanded=False):
buf3 = io.StringIO()
def _pct(x):
return "n/a" if pd.isna(x) else f"{x*100:.1f}%"
def _pp(x):
return "n/a" if pd.isna(x) else f"{x*100:.2f}%"
if ret_last.empty:
print("No data for interpretation.", file=buf3)
else:
as_of = ret_last.index[-1].date()
last = ret_last.iloc[-1]
N = last.shape[0]
up = int((last > 0).sum())
dn = int((last < 0).sum())
flat = int(N - up - dn)
mean = float(last.mean()); med = float(last.median())
std = float(last.std(ddof=0))
q25 = float(last.quantile(0.25)); q75 = float(last.quantile(0.75))
iqr = q75 - q25
thr = 0.02
big_up = int((last >= thr).sum())
big_dn = int((last <= -thr).sum())
w = min(5, len(ret_last))
avg_w = ret_last.tail(w).mean()
pct_pos_w = float((avg_w > 0).mean())
cs_std = ret_last.std(axis=1, ddof=0)
today_std = float(cs_std.iloc[-1])
disp_pct = float((cs_std <= today_std).mean())
k = min(10, N)
leaders = last.sort_values(ascending=False).head(k)
laggards = last.sort_values(ascending=True ).head(k)
def _streak(s, max_look=20):
v = s.tail(max_look).to_numpy(dtype=float)
sign = np.sign(v); sign[np.isnan(sign)] = 0
if len(sign) == 0 or sign[-1] == 0:
return 0
tgt = sign[-1]; cnt = 0
for x in sign[::-1]:
if x == tgt: cnt += 1
else: break
return int(cnt if tgt > 0 else -cnt)
streaks = {t: _streak(ret_last[t]) for t in set(leaders.index).union(laggards.index)}
print(f"=== Daily return heatmap read — {as_of} (last {len(ret_last)} sessions) ===", file=buf3)
print("\n[Today]", file=buf3)
print(f"Up: {up}/{N} ({_pct(up/N)}). Down: {dn}/{N} ({_pct(dn/N)}). Flat: {flat}.", file=buf3)
print(f"Mean: {_pp(mean)}. Median: {_pp(med)}. Std: {_pp(std)}. IQR: {_pp(iqr)}.", file=buf3)
print(f"Moves ≥ {int(thr*100)}%: +{big_up}. Moves ≤ -{int(thr*100)}%: {big_dn}.", file=buf3)
print("\n[Recent breadth]", file=buf3)
print(f"{_pct(pct_pos_w)} of names have a positive average over the last {w} sessions.", file=buf3)
print("\n[Dispersion]", file=buf3)
print(f"Cross-section std today: {_pp(today_std)} (window percentile ~{disp_pct*100:.0f}th).", file=buf3)
print("\n[Leaders today]", file=buf3)
for t, v in leaders.items():
stv = streaks.get(t, 0)
lab = ("flat" if stv == 0 else (f"{stv}d up" if stv > 0 else f"{-stv}d down"))
print(f" {t}: {_pp(v)} ({lab})", file=buf3)
print("\n[Laggards today]", file=buf3)
for t, v in laggards.items():
stv = streaks.get(t, 0)
lab = ("flat" if stv == 0 else (f"{stv}d up" if stv > 0 else f"{-stv}d down"))
print(f" {t}: {_pp(v)} ({lab})", file=buf3)
print("\n[What to monitor]", file=buf3)
print("Watch big-move counts and the 5-day positive share for follow-through.", file=buf3)
print("Track dispersion; elevated dispersion favors relative moves over index moves.", file=buf3)
st.text(buf3.getvalue())
# ===================== SECTION 4 — Percentile Momentum Heatmap =====================
st.header("Percentile Momentum Heatmap")
# Methodology (standalone expander)
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.write("Ranks each stock’s medium-horizon return against the cross-section each day.")
st.write("Use it to spot broad momentum, rotation, and persistence.")
st.write("**n-day return (per name)**")
st.latex(r"r^{(n)}_{i,t}=\frac{P_{i,t}}{P_{i,t-n}}-1")
st.write("**Cross-sectional percentile (per day)**")
st.latex(r"p_{i,t}=\frac{\operatorname{rank}\!\left(r^{(n)}_{i,t}\right)}{N}")
st.write("0 means worst in the universe that day. 1 means best.")
st.write("The heatmap shows p_{i,t}. Rows are sorted by the latest percentile.")
st.write("**Breadth buckets (how to read)**")
st.latex(r"\text{Top\,20\%}_t=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i}\mathbf{1}[p_{i,t}\ge 0.80]")
st.latex(r"\text{Bottom\,20\%}_t=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i}\mathbf{1}[p_{i,t}\le 0.20]")
st.write("High Top-20% share signals broad upside momentum. High Bottom-20% share signals broad weakness.")
st.write("**Momentum shift vs a short lookback**")
st.latex(r"\Delta p_i=p_{i,T}-p_{i,T-w}")
st.write("Improving names: Δp_i > 0. Weakening names: Δp_i < 0.")
st.write("**Persistence (top/bottom quintile)**")
st.latex(r"\text{TopQ}_{i}=\sum_{k=0}^{w-1}\mathbf{1}[p_{i,T-k}\ge 0.80]")
st.latex(r"\text{BotQ}_{i}=\sum_{k=0}^{w-1}\mathbf{1}[p_{i,T-k}\le 0.20]")
st.write("Names with TopQ = w held leadership. BotQ = w stayed weak.")
st.write("**Practical reads**")
st.write("- Rising median percentile and high Top-20% share: trend has breadth.")
st.write("- Mixed median with both tails active: rotation/dispersion regime.")
st.write("- Persistent top-quintile list: candidates for follow-through.")
st.write("- Persistent bottom-quintile list: candidates for mean-reversion checks.")
look_days = int(mom_look)
ret_n = clean_close.pct_change(look_days)
ret_n = ret_n.iloc[look_days:]
if ret_n.empty:
st.warning("Not enough data for the momentum heatmap.")
else:
perc = ret_n.rank(axis=1, pct=True)
order2 = perc.iloc[-1].sort_values(ascending=True).index
perc = perc[order2]
z = perc.T.values
x = perc.index
y = list(order2)
n_dates = len(x)
step = max(1, n_dates // 10)
xtick_vals = x[::step]
xtick_texts = [ts.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") for ts in xtick_vals]
fig_pm = go.Figure(go.Heatmap(
z=z, x=x, y=y,
colorscale="Viridis",
zmin=0, zmax=1,
colorbar=dict(title="Return Percentile"),
hovertemplate="%{y}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<br>%{z:.0%}<extra></extra>"
))
height = max(800, min(3200, 18 * len(y)))
fig_pm.update_layout(
template="plotly_dark",
title=f"{look_days}-Day Return Percentile Heatmap",
height=height,
margin=dict(l=110, r=40, t=60, b=60),
font=dict(color="white")
)
fig_pm.update_yaxes(title="Tickers (sorted by latest %ile)", tickfont=dict(size=8))
fig_pm.update_xaxes(title="Date", tickmode="array", tickvals=xtick_vals, ticktext=xtick_texts, tickangle=45)
st.plotly_chart(fig_pm, use_container_width=True)
# Dynamic Interpretation (standalone expander)
with st.expander("Dynamic Interpretation", expanded=False):
buf4 = io.StringIO()
if perc.empty or ret_n.empty:
print("No data for interpretation.", file=buf4)
else:
as_of = perc.index[-1].date()
last_p = perc.iloc[-1].astype(float)
last_r = ret_n.iloc[-1].astype(float)
N = int(last_p.shape[0])
mean_p = float(last_p.mean()); med_p = float(last_p.median())
q25 = float(last_p.quantile(0.25)); q75 = float(last_p.quantile(0.75))
iqr_w = q75 - q25
top10 = float((last_p >= 0.90).mean() * 100)
top20 = float((last_p >= 0.80).mean() * 100)
mid40 = float(((last_p > 0.40) & (last_p < 0.60)).mean() * 100)
bot20 = float((last_p <= 0.20).mean() * 100)
bot10 = float((last_p <= 0.10).mean() * 100)
pct_up = float((last_r > 0).mean() * 100)
look = min(5, len(perc))
delta = (last_p - perc.iloc[-look].astype(float)).dropna()
improving = float((delta > 0).mean() * 100)
weakening = float((delta < 0).mean() * 100)
delta_med = float(delta.median())
k = min(10, N)
leaders = last_p.sort_values(ascending=False).head(k)
laggards = last_p.sort_values(ascending=True ).head(k)
window_p = 5
top_quint = (perc.tail(window_p) >= 0.80).sum()
bot_quint = (perc.tail(window_p) <= 0.20).sum()
persistent_up = top_quint[top_quint == window_p].index.tolist()
persistent_dn = bot_quint[bot_quint == window_p].index.tolist()
print(f"=== {look_days}-day momentum read — {as_of} ===", file=buf4)
print("\n[Snapshot]", file=buf4)
print(f"Names: {N}. Up on window: {pct_up:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
print(f"Mean percentile: {mean_p:.2f}. Median: {med_p:.2f}.", file=buf4)
print(f"IQR: {q25:.2f}–{q75:.2f} (width {iqr_w:.2f}).", file=buf4)
print("\n[Breadth]", file=buf4)
print(f"Top 10%: {top10:.1f}%. Top 20%: {top20:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
print(f"Middle 40–60%: {mid40:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
print(f"Bottom 20%: {bot20:.1f}%. Bottom 10%: {bot10:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
print("\n[Shift]", file=buf4)
print(f"Improving vs {look} days ago: {improving:.1f}%. Weakening: {weakening:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
print(f"Median percentile change: {delta_med:+.2f}.", file=buf4)
print("\n[Leaders]", file=buf4)
for t, v in leaders.items():
print(f" {t}: {v:.2f}", file=buf4)
print("\n[Laggards]", file=buf4)
for t, v in laggards.items():
print(f" {t}: {v:.2f}", file=buf4)
print("\n[Persistence]", file=buf4)
if persistent_up:
up_list = ", ".join(persistent_up[:15]) + ("…" if len(persistent_up) > 15 else "")
print(f"Top-quintile {window_p} days: {up_list}", file=buf4)
else:
print("No names stayed in the top quintile.", file=buf4)
if persistent_dn:
dn_list = ", ".join(persistent_dn[:15]) + ("…" if len(persistent_dn) > 15 else "")
print(f"Bottom-quintile {window_p} days: {dn_list}", file=buf4)
else:
print("No names stayed in the bottom quintile.", file=buf4)
print("\n[Focus]", file=buf4)
print("Watch the top-quintile share. Rising share supports continuation.", file=buf4)
print("Track the median percentile. Sustained readings above 0.60 show broad momentum.", file=buf4)
print("Use persistence lists for follow-through and mean-reversion checks.", file=buf4)
st.text(buf4.getvalue())
# Hide default Streamlit style
st.markdown(
"""
<style>
#MainMenu {visibility: hidden;}
footer {visibility: hidden;}
</style>
""",
unsafe_allow_html=True
)
|