| # Amplegest — Product and Technical Write-up |
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| Amplegest is a post-earnings decision memo for portfolio managers and senior equity analysts. It compresses filings, transcripts, structured financials, and public news into a fast first-pass review while preserving a route back to the evidence. |
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| The product objective is not “summarise the quarter.” It is to answer four investment-process questions: |
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| 1. What changed relative to the prior thesis? |
| 2. Which evidence confirms or challenges that thesis? |
| 3. What is the swing factor for the next estimate revision? |
| 4. Which observable metric, threshold, or event should be monitored next? |
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| Amplegest does not issue a buy/sell recommendation or a price target. |
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| ## 1. Decision experience |
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| The interface follows the order in which an experienced investor reviews a print. |
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| ### 1.1 PM Flash |
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| PM Flash is the one-screen decision memo: |
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| - **As-of and coverage** — company, ticker, filing date, and available source types. |
| - **PM read-through** — a concise synthesis labelled **AI · experimental**. |
| - **Thesis-confirming / thesis-challenging** — the highest-impact source-backed points on each side. |
| - **Swing factor** — the most material analytical tension or between-the-lines hypothesis, explicitly experimental and linked to the evidence layer. |
| - **What to watch** — the next catalysts, metrics, thresholds, or periods that can validate or invalidate the read. |
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| The screen is deliberately sparse. Detailed cards, search, before/after text, and full evidence belong in Evidence & Deltas. |
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| ### 1.2 Evidence & Deltas |
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| Evidence & Deltas is the audit surface. It combines source-backed claims, risk changes, management commentary, period comparisons, and experimental interpretations in one ranked feed. |
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| The feed uses three distinct labels: |
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| - **Source-backed fact** — traceable to a filing, transcript, or news excerpt. |
| - **Heuristic · validate** — a deterministic detector output whose underlying text or calculation must be reviewed. |
| - **AI · experimental** — a model-generated synthesis or interpretation that must be tested against cited evidence. |
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| This separation prevents a language-shift detector or a plausible narrative from being mistaken for a reported financial fact. |
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| ### 1.3 Financials |
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| Financials provides the historical depth behind the memo: KPI series, profitability, cash and capital allocation, balance-sheet trends, guidance history, and earnings history. It is the modelling support surface, not a second executive summary. |
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| ### 1.4 Ask Evidence |
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| Ask Evidence is a secondary, grounded Q&A utility. It is useful after the investor has identified a question in PM Flash or Evidence & Deltas. It is intentionally outside the primary decision sequence so an open-ended chat does not replace systematic review. |
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| ## 2. Workflow |
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| Amplegest separates ingestion from on-demand analysis. |
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| ### 2.1 Offline ingestion |
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| Run after a new release: |
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| python ingest.py TICKER |
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| - SEC EDGAR XBRL → SQLite structured metrics. |
| - 10-K/10-Q sections → chunking, embeddings, and Chroma filing storage. |
| - Earnings-call transcripts → a separate Chroma transcript collection. |
| - Period metadata travels with each record so retrieval can be scoped to the relevant filing or comparison period. |
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| ### 2.2 Runtime graph |
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| The LangGraph flow is: |
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| agent → tools (bounded loop) → synthesis → post_synthesis → presentation policy |
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| - The first round anchors the run in structured financial metrics and available analyst data. |
| - Filing and transcript retrieval are coverage requirements, with a one-time nudge if the agent attempts to stop before consulting both. |
| - Retrieval over-fetches Chroma candidates and reranks them with a cross-encoder. |
| - Synthesis is a separate model call that emits a validated **BriefOutput** object. |
| - Post-synthesis code applies deterministic reliability rules and adds rule-based period deltas. |
| - The presentation policy suppresses unaligned aggregate and market-derived outputs. |
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| LangSmith records the graph nodes, tool calls, retrieved context, and model invocations for operational review. |
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| ## 3. Source and evidence hierarchy |
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| The intended source ladder is: |
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| 1. **10-K / 10-Q** for reported financials, accounting disclosures, and official risk language. |
| 2. **Transcript** for management framing, prepared remarks, and Q&A. |
| 3. **News** for events occurring after the filing or call. |
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| Every **SourcedFact** carries one source type and a short verbatim evidence excerpt. The factual claim may be composed during synthesis, but the excerpt gives the reviewer a direct verification path. |
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| News cannot substitute for a primary filing when the primary document exists. If the evidence set is incomplete, the system should state the coverage gap rather than silently increase confidence. |
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| ## 4. Item-level reliability |
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| Reliability is recomputed after synthesis; the model does not control the final label. |
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| Default item-level grades: |
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| - 10-K / 10-Q → HIGH; |
| - transcript → MEDIUM; |
| - news → LOW. |
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| Deterministic adjustments include: |
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| 1. downgrade generic Risk Factors language; |
| 2. downgrade stale news; |
| 3. uplift a transcript or news claim when a sufficiently similar claim is corroborated by a different source; |
| 4. flag lone-news claims without filing or transcript confirmation; |
| 5. record reliability adjustments in evidence notes; |
| 6. remove analytical tensions that merely duplicate existing thesis points. |
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| These labels describe the strength and provenance of a specific evidence item. They are not a calibrated truth probability. Amplegest therefore keeps item-level source and reliability metadata but masks any global HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW roll-up or percentage. |
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| ## 5. Analytical layer |
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| The analytical layer is useful only when its epistemic status is visible. |
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| ### Source-backed claims |
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| **what_changed**, bull/bear points, risks, management commentary, and other **SourcedFact** fields are presented with their source and evidence excerpt. |
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| ### Heuristic deltas |
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| **quarter_deltas** are computed by deterministic detectors over two periods. Examples include: |
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| - added, removed, or reworded risk language; |
| - term-frequency changes; |
| - guidance-language shifts; |
| - dropped KPIs; |
| - repeated Q&A evasion patterns; |
| - management-tone or topic trajectories. |
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| The before/after text and computed metric are inspectable. The classification and significance remain heuristic, so the UI labels them **Heuristic · validate**. |
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| ### Experimental AI hypotheses |
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| The following are interpretations, not reported facts: |
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| - **what_matters_most**; |
| - **non_obvious_takeaway**; |
| - **analytical_tensions**; |
| - **between_the_lines**; |
| - **earnings_quality_signals**. |
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| Where displayed, they are labelled **AI · experimental**. PM Flash uses the most material tension or tell as a Swing Factor, not as a conclusion. The reviewer is directed to validate the hypothesis against Evidence & Deltas. |
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| An empty tension set is valid and preferable to a manufactured insight. |
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| ## 6. Fail-closed market-data policy |
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| Stored data and displayed data are different contracts. Amplegest may retain **sentiment** and **market_expectations** in the brief for later validation, but the PM-facing presentation does not show them unless alignment is explicit. |
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| The following remain hidden by default: |
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| - aggregate sentiment; |
| - aggregate HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW reliability distributions or percentages; |
| - D1 / D5 event returns; |
| - actual-versus-consensus comparisons. |
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| Required preconditions before any future display: |
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| | Output | Required alignment | |
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| | Actual vs consensus | Same fiscal period, metric definition, accounting basis, units, and currency; estimate timestamp precedes the release. | |
| | D1 / D5 | Exact earnings-release timestamp, after-hours/pre-market status, exchange calendar, timezone, and unambiguous session anchors. | |
| | Aggregate sentiment | Documented section coverage, calibrated weights, stability tests, and a defined decision use. | |
| | Aggregate reliability | Documented aggregation method that does not turn source provenance into a false confidence score. | |
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| The gate is fail-closed: a missing flag, ambiguous period, or uncertain timestamp means **do not render**. A plausible value is not sufficient. |
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| ## 7. What to improve next |
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| ### 7.1 Period identity and market alignment |
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| - Key XBRL observations by accession, end date, duration, fiscal period, and form rather than accession alone. |
| - Align consensus explicitly to the reported fiscal quarter and metric basis. |
| - Anchor price reactions to the release timestamp and the correct market session. |
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| ### 7.2 Evidence locators |
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| - Persist accession, filing section, document URL, transcript speaker, and chunk identifier with every claim. |
| - Make each evidence excerpt deep-linkable to its source context. |
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| ### 7.3 Financial-quality coverage |
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| - Ingest financial statements and footnotes for working capital, stock-based compensation, tax normality, and GAAP/non-GAAP reconciliation. |
| - Add speaker diarisation to separate prepared remarks from Q&A and identify repeated non-answers. |
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| ### 7.4 PM workflow |
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| - Structure watch items as metric + threshold + period + source. |
| - Add portfolio-level change monitoring and cross-name comparison. |
| - Schedule ingestion immediately after earnings and cache briefs by **(ticker, filing_date)**. |
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| The priority order is data identity first, evidence navigation second, and additional analytical breadth third. |
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