| [ |
| { |
| "name": "well_grounded_conflict", |
| "forecast": { |
| "domain": "conflict", |
| "region": "Iran", |
| "title": "Escalation risk: Iran", |
| "probability": 0.71, |
| "confidence": 0.62, |
| "timeHorizon": "7d", |
| "trend": "rising", |
| "signals": [ |
| { "type": "cii", "value": "Iran CII 87 (critical)", "weight": 0.4 }, |
| { "type": "ucdp", "value": "3 UCDP conflict events", "weight": 0.3 }, |
| { "type": "theater", "value": "Middle East theater posture elevated", "weight": 0.2 } |
| ], |
| "newsContext": [ |
| "Iran military drills intensify after border incident", |
| "Regional officials warn of retaliation risk" |
| ], |
| "calibration": { |
| "marketTitle": "Will Iran conflict escalate before July?", |
| "marketPrice": 0.58, |
| "drift": 0.04, |
| "source": "polymarket" |
| }, |
| "cascades": [ |
| { "domain": "market", "effect": "commodity price shock", "probability": 0.41 } |
| ] |
| }, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "overallMin": 0.7, |
| "groundingMin": 0.6 |
| } |
| }, |
| { |
| "name": "well_grounded_supply_chain", |
| "forecast": { |
| "domain": "supply_chain", |
| "region": "Red Sea", |
| "title": "Shipping disruption: Red Sea", |
| "probability": 0.64, |
| "confidence": 0.57, |
| "timeHorizon": "7d", |
| "trend": "rising", |
| "signals": [ |
| { "type": "chokepoint", "value": "Red Sea disruption detected", "weight": 0.5 }, |
| { "type": "gps_jamming", "value": "GPS interference near Red Sea", "weight": 0.2 } |
| ], |
| "newsContext": [ |
| "Red Sea shipping disruption worsens after new attacks", |
| "Freight rates react to Red Sea rerouting" |
| ], |
| "calibration": { |
| "marketTitle": "Will oil close above $90?", |
| "marketPrice": 0.62, |
| "drift": 0.03, |
| "source": "polymarket" |
| }, |
| "cascades": [ |
| { "domain": "market", "effect": "supply shortage pricing", "probability": 0.38 } |
| ] |
| }, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "overallMin": 0.66, |
| "groundingMin": 0.6 |
| } |
| }, |
| { |
| "name": "thin_generic_market", |
| "forecast": { |
| "domain": "market", |
| "region": "Europe", |
| "title": "Energy stress: Europe", |
| "probability": 0.69, |
| "confidence": 0.58, |
| "timeHorizon": "30d", |
| "trend": "stable", |
| "signals": [ |
| { "type": "prediction_market", "value": "Broad market stress chatter", "weight": 0.2 } |
| ], |
| "newsContext": [], |
| "cascades": [] |
| }, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "overallMax": 0.55 |
| } |
| } |
| ] |
|
|
