worldmonitor/scripts/data/forecast-historical-benchmark.json

[
  {
    "name": "red_sea_shipping_disruption_2024_01_15",
    "eventDate": "2024-01-15",
    "description": "Red Sea disruption risk hardens after rerouting and interference signals broaden.",
    "priorForecast": {
      "domain": "supply_chain",
      "region": "Red Sea",
      "title": "Shipping disruption: Red Sea",
      "probability": 0.52,
      "confidence": 0.54,
      "timeHorizon": "7d",
      "signals": [
        { "type": "chokepoint", "value": "Red Sea disruption detected", "weight": 0.5 }
      ],
      "newsContext": [
        "Shipping firms monitor Red Sea route risk"
      ],
      "calibration": {
        "marketTitle": "Will oil close above $90?",
        "marketPrice": 0.54,
        "drift": 0.02,
        "source": "polymarket"
      }
    },
    "forecast": {
      "domain": "supply_chain",
      "region": "Red Sea",
      "title": "Shipping disruption: Red Sea",
      "probability": 0.68,
      "confidence": 0.59,
      "timeHorizon": "7d",
      "signals": [
        { "type": "chokepoint", "value": "Red Sea disruption detected", "weight": 0.5 },
        { "type": "gps_jamming", "value": "GPS interference near Red Sea", "weight": 0.2 }
      ],
      "newsContext": [
        "Shipping firms monitor Red Sea route risk",
        "Freight rates react to Red Sea rerouting"
      ],
      "calibration": {
        "marketTitle": "Will oil close above $90?",
        "marketPrice": 0.67,
        "drift": 0.01,
        "source": "polymarket"
      },
      "cascades": [
        { "domain": "market", "effect": "supply shortage pricing", "probability": 0.38 }
      ]
    },
    "thresholds": {
      "overallMin": 0.72,
      "groundingMin": 0.65,
      "trend": "rising",
      "changeSummaryIncludes": ["rose from 52% to 68%"],
      "changeItemsInclude": [
        "New signal: GPS interference near Red Sea",
        "New reporting: Freight rates react to Red Sea rerouting",
        "Market moved from 54% to 67%"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "name": "iran_exchange_2024_04_14",
    "eventDate": "2024-04-14",
    "description": "Iran escalation risk jumps as conflict-event and theater signals stack on top of already-high instability.",
    "priorForecast": {
      "domain": "conflict",
      "region": "Iran",
      "title": "Escalation risk: Iran",
      "probability": 0.46,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "timeHorizon": "7d",
      "signals": [
        { "type": "cii", "value": "Iran CII 79 (high)", "weight": 0.4 }
      ],
      "newsContext": [
        "Iran military drills intensify after border incident"
      ],
      "calibration": {
        "marketTitle": "Will Iran conflict escalate before July?",
        "marketPrice": 0.45,
        "drift": 0.03,
        "source": "polymarket"
      }
    },
    "forecast": {
      "domain": "conflict",
      "region": "Iran",
      "title": "Escalation risk: Iran",
      "probability": 0.74,
      "confidence": 0.64,
      "timeHorizon": "7d",
      "signals": [
        { "type": "cii", "value": "Iran CII 79 (high)", "weight": 0.4 },
        { "type": "ucdp", "value": "3 UCDP conflict events", "weight": 0.3 },
        { "type": "theater", "value": "Middle East theater posture elevated", "weight": 0.2 }
      ],
      "newsContext": [
        "Iran military drills intensify after border incident",
        "Regional officials warn of retaliation risk"
      ],
      "calibration": {
        "marketTitle": "Will Iran conflict escalate before July?",
        "marketPrice": 0.71,
        "drift": 0.03,
        "source": "polymarket"
      },
      "cascades": [
        { "domain": "market", "effect": "commodity price shock", "probability": 0.41 }
      ]
    },
    "thresholds": {
      "overallMin": 0.78,
      "groundingMin": 0.65,
      "trend": "rising",
      "changeSummaryIncludes": ["rose from 46% to 74%"],
      "changeItemsInclude": [
        "New signal: 3 UCDP conflict events",
        "New reporting: Regional officials warn of retaliation risk",
        "Market moved from 45% to 71%"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "name": "europe_energy_stress_eases_2025_02_01",
    "eventDate": "2025-02-01",
    "description": "A softer market path and thinner corroboration pull a European energy stress forecast down.",
    "priorForecast": {
      "domain": "market",
      "region": "Europe",
      "title": "Energy stress: Europe",
      "probability": 0.64,
      "confidence": 0.58,
      "timeHorizon": "30d",
      "signals": [
        { "type": "prediction_market", "value": "EU gas price stress remains elevated", "weight": 0.25 }
      ],
      "newsContext": [
        "European gas storage draw accelerates"
      ],
      "calibration": {
        "marketTitle": "Will EU gas prices spike this month?",
        "marketPrice": 0.59,
        "drift": 0.02,
        "source": "polymarket"
      }
    },
    "forecast": {
      "domain": "market",
      "region": "Europe",
      "title": "Energy stress: Europe",
      "probability": 0.49,
      "confidence": 0.54,
      "timeHorizon": "30d",
      "signals": [
        { "type": "prediction_market", "value": "EU gas price stress remains elevated", "weight": 0.25 }
      ],
      "newsContext": [],
      "calibration": {
        "marketTitle": "Will EU gas prices spike this month?",
        "marketPrice": 0.44,
        "drift": 0.05,
        "source": "polymarket"
      }
    },
    "thresholds": {
      "overallMax": 0.58,
      "trend": "falling",
      "changeSummaryIncludes": ["fell from 64% to 49%"],
      "changeItemsInclude": [
        "Market moved from 59% to 44%"
      ]
    }
  }
]